Predicting and preventing the spread of lantana into the Blue ...

Predicting and preventing the spread 

of lantana into the Blue Mountains 

Alex Gold 

Research Forum: Bringing Together Science and Management 

26 May 2010 | Blackheath

Project overview 

� Masters study (August 2008 – July 2009) 

� Wanted to apply GIS and predictive modelling techniques 

to a current environmental issue 

� Used BMCC presence/absence data, my own fieldwork 

BlueSpace lantana

Aims of the study 

� Invasion, establishment and spread of Lantana camara is a key 

threatening process in NSW 

� DECCW has a threat abatement plan with priority actions 

� This research directly addresses two of these actions, and the 

presentation will follow to describe how the research relates to 

them: 

PRIORITY ACTION 1: SURVEY/MAPPING AND HABITAT ASSESSMENT 

PRIORITY ACTION 2: DEVELOP AND USE MODEL TO RANK 

BIODIVERSITY THREATENED BY LANTANA


� Developed a habitat suitability model based on BMCC weed surveys 

� Predicted suitability for parts of Blue Mountains National Park and 

intervening townships 

� Looked at how suitability may change with warmer climates 

� Environmental data 

(from DECCW) 

sampled at each point 

� Helps determine 

what environmental 

factors may contribute 

to lantana persistence


� So…what kind of habitat does lantana prefer? 

PERCENTAGE EXPLANATION 

100 

90 

80 

70 

60 

50 

40 

30 

20 

10 

0 

� Differences in minimum temperatures are important… 

88.59 

MINIMUM 

TEMP 

� But HOW are they important? 

The chance of 

finding lantana 

increases 

3.08 

4.8 

As minimum temperatures increase… 

1.29 

CANOPY COVER TERRAIN SOLAR 

RADIATION 

2.25 

FIRE


� Established lantana’s rela4onship with these environmental factors 

RAW LANTANA DATA 

ENVIRONMENTAL 

RELATIONSHIP 

PREDICTIVE MAPPING 

� Now can develop a habitat suitability assessment of the landscape 

� Probability of lantana persis_ng, given environmental factors


� Generate map under current condi_ons…iden_fy pathways


� In the Blue 

Mountains 

region, lantana 

has an strong 

correla_on with 

temperature 

� so climate 

change 

becomes an 

important 

considera_on 

+0.5°C +1.0°C 

+0.5°C +1.0°C 

+1.5°C +2.0°C 

+1.5°C +2.0°C


� Iden_fied minimum 

temperature as an important 

predictor of lantana presence 

in the area 

� Able to iden_fy pathways of 

suitable habitat 

� Importance of climate 

change 

� Especially warmer 

winters 

� Integra_on with na_onal 

remote sensing data 

PRIORITY ACTION 2 

USE MODEL TO RANK BIODIVERSITY THREATENED BY LANTANA

PRIORITY ACTION 2: USE MODEL TO RANK THREATENED BIODIVERSITY 

� Coastal regions have received most of the acen_on 

� NSW North Coast, Sydney Basin, South East Corner Bioregions 

� Time to turn to the mountains, especially with increasing threat


� Integrated habitat suitability model with vegeta_on communi_es 

� Sydney Turpen_ne-‐Ironbark Forest within townships


� Endangered ecological communi_es most under threat: 

� Sydney Turpen_ne-‐Ironbark Forest 

� Shale/Sandstone Transi_on Forest 

� Sun Valley Cabbage Gum Forest 

� Blue Gum Riverflat Forest 

� Casuarina cunninghamiana River Oak Forest 

� Blue Mountains Shale Cap Forest (longer-‐term) 

� Only Sydney Turpen_ne-‐Ironbark Forest is listed within the KTP 

� Also iden_fied 27 endangered species at further risk: 

� Even more vulnerable species… 

� Shrubs and other flora 

� e.g Acacia gordonii 

� Lantana threatens 

adults, juveniles, and 

seed germina_on 

� Endemic fauna 

� e.g. Blue Mountains Water Skink 

� Weeds degrade habitat

Two priority ac_ons within the DECCW Threat Abatement Plan for lantana are: 

SURVEY/MAPPING AND HABITAT ASSESSMENT 

� Iden_fied important environmental predictors for lantana presence 

� Minimum temperatures key 

� Habitat suitability model iden_fied pathways of poten_al ingress 

� Riparian areas as secondary dispersal mechanism? 

� Climate change cri_cally important 

� Warmer winters may lead to outbreaks 

� Combined with na_onal remote sensing data for targeted planning 

USE MODEL TO RANK THREATENED BIODIVERSITY 

� Model allowed for specific assessment of threat to mountains 

vegeta4on communi4es 

� Present and longer-‐term considera_ons 

� Contributed to lists of threatened species and ecological communi_es 

within key threatening process informa_on 

� Western containment line for the na_onal strategy?

Acknowledgements 

� Shawn Laffan 

� Dan Ramp 

� Richard Kingsford 

� Frank Garofalow 

� Matt Chambers 

� Derek Tan 

� Chris Dewhurst 

� Eric Mahony 

� Melissa Giese 

� Peter Stathis 

� Tanya Strevens 

� Geoff Luscombe 

� Glenn Meade 

� Pete Turner 

� Rosalie Chapple 

� John Merson 

� Haydn Washington 

Australian Weeds Research Centre

Predicting and preventing the spread of lantana into the Blue ...

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?