28-09-2021

tueSDaY, SePtemBer 28, 2021
5
Gareth WiLLmer
Extreme events are increasingly
compounding each other, even if they
initially seem wide apart and
unconnected, making it more crucial to
tackle their root causes, says a report.
The Interconnected Disaster Risks
report, by UN academic arm the United
Nations University, focuses on 10
disasters worldwide in 2020-21. These
include Amazon fires, floods in
Vietnam, Cyclone Amphan in
Bangladesh and India, and locust
outbreaks across multiple countries, as
well as COVID-19, and the Arctic
heatwave.
"The world witnessed a number of
record-breaking disasters that showed
us clearer than ever before how
interconnected we are," says the report.
Tackling them in "fragmented, isolated
and insular ways" is no longer tenable,
it adds.
While it is already known that many
events are interconnected, homing in
on a limited set shows the links more
explicitly, says Jack O'Connor, an
author of the report and senior scientist
at UNU's Institute for Environment
and Human Security.
Global disasters are interconnected
"What we want to do with this report
is to get people to see disasters more
not as isolated events, but as the tip of
an iceberg," he said. "If you dig
underneath, you find that they're really
caused by these big systems and
structures that have patterns."
The report highlights both the knockon
effect of one disaster on others, and
similarities in root causes. The most
common causes were identified as
insufficient risk management and
undervaluation of environmental costs
in decision-making, as well as climate
change.
One event covered by the report - the
extinction of the Chinese paddlefish -
shared similar root causes with the
destruction caused by Cyclone
Amphan, in that dam building in both
cases had consequences for nature and
people, undermining ecosystems
downstream.
The paddlefish extinction also shared
similarities with Amazon fires, says
O'Connor, as both resulted partially
Lack of risk management and climate change among common
causes.
Photo: Greenpeace
from landscape interventions to
harness economically valuable
resources. In the case of the Amazon,
trees were cut down for agriculture,
resulting in declining local rainfall and
worsening fires.
In turn, deforestation is linked to
Western demand for meat, and has a
knock-on effect on climate change,
exacerbating extreme events elsewhere
in the world, says the report. "The scale
of the interconnection, when you really
look into it, is surprising even for us,"
says O'Connor, referring to scientists
studying the phenomenon.
COVID-19 has also illustrated how
multiple hazards can undermine wellestablished
measures to mitigate
disasters. For example, says O'Connor,
the pandemic reduced the effectiveness
of early warning systems during
Cyclone Amphan, complicating storm
preparedness including moving people
to shelters. COVID-19 also affected the
ability of Vietnam to deal with last
year's floods.
This all makes it important to tackle
root causes in an integrated way to
achieve multiple benefits rather than
solving single problems, says the
report. "When you're trying to plan for
the unexpected, you have to use a
systems-thinking approach," says
O'Connor. "Planning for what we've
already seen is not going to be enough."
He adds that these consequences are
essential to consider when solutions to
issues can simultaneously have highly
damaging environmental effects. For
example, hydropower dams, which
many countries in the global South
plan to build in the coming years,
provide renewable energy but can also
have devastating environmental
impacts.
The report highlights the need to
consider and mitigate "the trade-offs
for clean energy, irrigation, water
supply, ecosystem quality and
biodiversity" in an interdisciplinary
way. Saleemul Huq, director of the
International Centre for Climate
Change and Development in Dhaka,
Bangladesh, agrees that focusing on
interconnected issues is important. "I
believe that the world is now entering
the era of loss and damage from
human-induced climate change, and
we all need to work together to deal
with this issue," he said.
In Brazil, Ane Alencar, science
director at the country's Amazon
Environmental Research Institute, says
a lack of political will to fight processes
such as deforestation hampers the
country's ability to deal with
interconnected events. "Understanding
of the importance of the Amazon to
Brazilians and the world, and the
connection with meat consumption,
food prices and other things alike is
very important," she said.
Could gene editing chickens
prevent future pandemics?
NataLie Grover
Diseases such as avian flu
trigger the culling of millions
of birds each year. But that
need not be the case for
much longer. Vaccines are
one preventive strategy
employed in some countries,
but they do not stop birds
from being infected, getting
mild versions of the disease
and transmitting it to healthy
chickens. In fact, this
imperfect shield can make
things worse, incentivising
the virus to mutate to evade
the vaccine.
And an even more grim
possibility is that the viruses
that afflict domestic birds can
spill over into humans with
deadly effect. So scientists
are working on a more
permanent solution: gene
editing, which is designed to
alter specific genes in an
organism to enhance certain
characteristics or inhibit
others. It is sometimes
lumped into the same
category as genetic
modification, which involves
the transfer of a gene from
one organism to another.
Genetically modified
organisms are strictly
regulated in the EU, due to
longstanding fears of
unintended environmental
and public health effects.
Some campaign groups say
gene editing brings similar
risks. The use of gene editing
techniques "could not only
exacerbate the negative
effects of industrial farming
on nature, animals and
people, but it could
effectively turn both nature
and ourselves (through the
food we eat) into a gigantic
genetic engineering
experiment with unknown,
potentially irrevocable
outcomes", Greenpeace said
in a statement earlier this
year. Proponents,
meanwhile, assert that gene
editing technology is merely
a more precise version of the
traditional selective breeding
of animals.
At the heart of the gene
editing solution is the Crispr
tool, which is designed to
work like a pair of genetic
scissors. This tool could be
used, for instance, to edit out
a section of chicken DNA to
prevent the bird flu virus
from taking hold in the cells
and replicating.
Prof Helen Sang, a
geneticist at the Roslin
Institute at the University of
Edinburgh, is part of a team
of scientists that is working
on the early stages of such a
project. Crispr technology is
efficient because it allows for
the evaluation of the edit in
lab-grown cells - if those
results look encouraging, it
can then be tested in birds,
she says.
Pretty much everything we
eat has been selectively bred -
from crops to poultry. But in
many places, genetically
modified crops are common.
In the US, for instance, most
soy and corn are engineered
to maximise output. In 2015,
US regulators also granted
the first approval of an
animal (an Atlantic salmon)
Gene editing could be used to alter a chicken DNa to prevent the bird flu
virus from taking hold in the cells.
Photo: Barcroft media
whose DNA had been
scientifically modified for
human consumption.
Disease-resistant pigs are
expected to be next in line.
Selective breeding
fundamentally alters the
genetics of an organism but
is perceived as natural, while
using genetic editing
technology for the same goal
is considered unnatural,
noted Dr Laurence Tiley, a
molecular virologist at the
University of Cambridge's
department of veterinary
medicine.
Tiley's and Sang's research,
about a decade ago, yielded
early success in genetically
modifying chickens to
prevent the spread of bird flu.
But they didn't pursue the
project after realising the
technology wasn't robust
enough to completely
prevent the birds from
getting the flu in the first
place.
In the years since, Crispr
technology has grown from
relative obscurity to
revolutionising the fields of
biomedical research, clinical
medicine and agriculture.
Clearly, these gene editing
tools are not the way nature
intended, but are very
precise, says Tiley. "You can
make exactly the change you
want in exactly the
appropriate place. And you
can check it … and confirm
that there's nothing else that
you've made any other
changes to."
Earlier this year, a
consultation by the UK
government opened the door
for gene editing of crops and
livestock in England. The
changes to the current strict
rules - which originate from
the EU and make gene
editing for crops and
livestock almost impossible -
are intended to bring
widespread benefits to
consumers and farmers,
including healthier food,
lower antibiotic use and
better animal welfare.
But campaigners say
loosening the rules could
instead be worse for animal
welfare, for instance, if the
technology was used to
promote growth over animal
health, or to enable livestock
to be kept in crowded
conditions.
It's not an either/or
situation, says Tiley, adding:
"I think there is an obvious
case to improve livestock
production … to reduce the
transmission of infectious
diseases. But there are some
things that, no matter how
hard you try, you're going to
have a disease problem, and
if you can genetically
engineer these problems
away, then that's a good
thing to do."
DamiaN CarriNGtoN
People born today will suffer
many times more extreme
heatwaves and other climate
disasters over their lifetimes
than their grandparents,
research has shown. The
study is the first to assess the
contrasting experience of
climate extremes by
different age groups and
starkly highlights the
intergenerational injustice
posed by the climate crisis.
The analysis showed that a
child born in 2020 will
endure an average of 30
extreme heatwaves in their
lifetime, even if countries
fulfil their current pledges to
cut future carbon emissions.
That is seven times more
heatwaves than someone
born in 1960.
Today's babies will also
grow up to experience twice
as many droughts and
wildfires and three times
more river floods and crop
failures than someone who is
60 years old today. However,
rapidly cutting global
emissions to keep global
heating to 1.5C would almost
halve the heatwaves today's
children will experience,
while keeping under 2C
would reduce the number by
a quarter.
A vital task of the UN's
Cop26 climate summit in
Glasgow in November is to
deliver pledges of bigger
emissions cuts from the
most polluting countries and
climate justice will be an
important element of the
negotiations. Developing
countries, and the youth
strike protesters who have
taken to the streets around
the world, point out that
those who did least to cause
the climate crisis are
suffering the most.
"Our results highlight a
severe threat to the safety of
young generations and call
for drastic emission
reductions to safeguard their
future," said Prof Wim
Thiery, at Vrije Universiteit
Brussel in Belgium and who
led the research. He said
people under 40 today were
set to live "unprecedented"
lives, ie suffering heatwaves,
droughts, floods and crop
failures that would have
been virtually impossible -
0.01% chance - without
global heating.
Children set for more climate
disasters than their forefathers
Boy walks through a dried up agricultural field in the Saadiya area, north
of Diyala in eastern iraq.
Photo: ahmad al-rubaye
Dr Katja Frieler, at the projections
from Africa face 5.7 times more
Potsdam Institute for sophisticated computer extreme events.
Climate Impact Research in climate models, detailed "This highlights a
Germany and part of the population and life disproportionate climate
study team, said: "The good expectancy data, and global change burden for young
news is we can take much of temperature trajectories generations in the global
the climate burden from our
children's shoulders if we
limit warming to 1.5C by
phasing out fossil fuel use.
from the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change.
The scientists said the
increases in climate impacts
south," the researchers said.
Dohyeon Kim, an activist
from South Korea who took
part in the global climate
This is a huge opportunity." calculated for today's young strike on Friday, said:
Leo Hickman, editor of people were likely to be "Countries of the global
Carbon Brief, said: "These underestimates, as multiple north need to push
new findings reinforce our
2019 analysis which showed
that today's children will
need to emit eight times less
CO2 over the course of their
extremes within a year had
to be grouped together and
the greater intensity of
events was not accounted
for.
governments to put justice
and equity at the heart of
climate action, both in terms
of climate [aid] and setting
more ambitious pledges that
lifetime than their There was significant take into consideration
grandparents, if global regional variation in the historical responsibilities."
warming is to be kept below
1.5C. Climate change is
already exacerbating many
results. For example, the 53
million children born in
Europe and central Asia
The analysis found that
only those aged under 40
years today will live to see
injustices, but the between 2016 and 2020 will the consequences of the
intergenerational injustice of experience about four times choices made on emissions
climate change is more extreme events in their cuts. Those who are older
particularly stark."
lifetimes under current will have died before the
The research, published in emissions pledges, but the impacts of those choices
the journal Science, 172 million children of the become apparent in the
combined extreme event same age in sub-Saharan world.
riCharD LuSComBe
Many anglers lament the one that got
away. In Florida, the issue is more
often the fish that is caught but is
then snatched by a shark before
being reeled in. A grant from the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (Noaa) will allow
scientists at two universities to
research and possibly solve the
problem of shark depredation, an
increasingly common annoyance to 4
million recreational anglers who fish
Floridian waters each year.
The study by the Harbor Branch
Oceanographic Institute at Florida
Atlantic University (FAU) and
Mississippi State University will
investigate what species of sharks are
the most prolific offenders, what
types of fish fall victim more
frequently and where the thefts
occur.
The researchers also hope to get a
handle for the first time on the
economic cost. The recreational deep
sea fishing industry supports more
than 88,000 jobs in Florida and
A whole new angle on shark depredation
the researchers also hope to get a handle for the first time on the economic cost.
Photo: matt heath
provides annual revenue above $9bn.
"Few studies have quantified the
impact of depredation in recreational
fisheries," said Dr Matt Ajemian, the
lead investigator, assistant research
professor and director of the fisheries
ecology and conservation laboratory
at FAU Harbor Branch.
"Incorporating fishermen's
knowledge into a scientific process
gives them more confidence in
scientific results, promotes trust and
more importantly increases the
quantity and quality of data."
Ajemian's team will embrace what
it calls a citizen-science approach,
working with and surveying
recreational fishermen and building
on a Facebook site with 6,000
members that already records
photos, videos and anecdotal
accounts of sharks snatching fish
such as red snapper and grouper.
"The data we have collected from
the Facebook group show the
potential benefits of a social mediabased
approach to engage fishermen
in reporting, which has uncovered
the potential breadth and complexity
of the issue," Ajemian said.
The researchers will also take a
more hands-on approach, including
taking swabs of bite wounds on fish
remains to attempt to identify the
species of shark involved. Some
experts believe preservation efforts
have led to an increase of shark
depredation.
"Now that these conservation
actions have been put in place, and
these management plans have been
put in place, what we're actually
seeing is something more natural,
more healthy," Lauran Brewster, a
senior research fellow at FAU Harbor
Branch, told the Sun-Sentinel.
"We need to learn how to respond
to that without retaliating against a
species that's just living where it's
supposed to live." The FAU award of
almost $200,000 is part of a rolling
program of educational grants from
Noaa to universities conducting
research in certain scientific areas.
On Saturday, a page on the agency's
website celebrated National Hunting
and Fishing Day.