06 Classifieds | 19 May 2023cnclassifieds
19 May 2023 |Opinion 07opinionBy: Guy Lamb(Criminologist / Senior Lecturer, Stellenbosch University)Did South Africa sell arms to Russia?Only a series of unlikely scenarios could have made it possibleOn 11 May 2023 the US ambassadorto South Africa, Reuben Brigety,claimed that South Africa hadsecretly exported arms to Russia inDecember 2022. The announcementrapidly fed into a popular narrative thatSouth Africa was increasingly siding withRussia in relation to Moscow’s aggressivewar in Ukraine.Brigety’s statements made both SouthAfrican and international news headlines,including the Wall Street Journal, CNNand the Financial Times. He assertedthat, based on US intelligence reports,ammunition and/or arms were furtivelyloaded onto a Russian cargo vessel, the“Lady R”, at South Africa’s naval base inSimon’s Town. The vessel had earlier beensanctioned by the US government.In response, the South African presidencydenied that the government had granteda permit for such arms or ammunition tobe exported to Russia. And that no permitapproval for Russian arms exports appearsin South Africa’s National ConventionalArms Control Committee recent armsexport reports other than for electronicobservation equipment annual arms exportreports.Nonetheless, President Cyril Ramaphosais in the process of establishing acommission of inquiry into the incident.I spent more than 20 years undertakingresearch and working with governmentson the arms trade and arms control inAfrica, as well as serving as an armssmuggling investigator for the UnitedNations Sanctions Branch.I am of the view that such an armstransaction would have required anumber of developments that don’t seemplausible. These include the overriding ofprocurement procedures, the bypassing ofkey ministers, as well as bribery at a grandand sophisticated scale. Furthermore,as demonstrated in the UN Register ofConventional Arms database, Russia hasrarely imported South African arms.The scenario set out by the US ambassadortherefore seems highly unlikely. Let meexplain why.Imports and exportsThe South African minister of defence,Thandi Modise, has stated that the LadyR docked in Simon’s Town in December2022 to deliver a shipment of ammunitionfor the South African National DefenceForce’s Special Forces Regiment that hadbeen ordered prior to Russia’s invasion ofUkraine.Indeed the Arms Control Committee’s2019 arms import report lists the permitapproval for the import of five millionrounds of Russian ammunition to SouthAfrica. Russia is the second largestexporter of arms globally. Its largestclients are India, China and Egypt. Overthe years, even the US and the UK haveimported arms from Russia according tothe UN Register of Conventional Arms.Reports at the time indicate that containerswere offloaded in the harbour and thentransported to secure locations under tightsecurity. Such measures are in line with theNational Conventional Arms Control Actand were possibly a requirement of the enduser certificate.In addition, such security was likelynecessitated by the theft of a large quantityof ammunition from Durban harbourduring the July 2021 unrest.There were also reports of weapons theftfrom the Simon’s Town naval base in 2016.An anonymous source within the SouthAfrican Navy reported to News24 that thenavy had been “sidelined” by the armyduring the offloading and loading of theLady R. This was most likely due to thearmy being better equipped and moreexperienced in protecting such a cargo.US accusations of South African armsto RussiaBrigety claimed that the US governmenthad intelligence reports indicating thatprior to the Lady R departing from Simon’sTown, South African ammunition andpossibly arms were loaded onto the vesseland then transported to Russia.However, the reports have not been madepublic. Hence it has not been possible toindependently verify the information.There has also been no public comment onthe matter.This is critically important given thatintelligence reports are not always accurate.This was shown by the flawed intelligencethat led to the US invasion of Iraq in 2003.In addition, various eyewitness accountsdiffer as to whether anything significantwas loaded onto the Lady R.It was also not clear if the containers thatwere loaded were merely empty cargocontainers, or included cargo that was tobe delivered to other ports. For example,it’s been reported that the vessel dockedin Mozambique and Sudan on its returnvoyage to Russia.Additionally, why would the Russiangovernment transport millions of rounds ofammunition to South Africa and then buya large quantity of ammunition from thecountry, which has a relatively small armsmanufacturing industry?South Africa has one of the mostcomprehensive arms export laws in Africa,the cornerstones of which are transparencyand human rights considerations. Accordingto Section 15 of the National ConventionalArms Control Act, decisions by the NationalConventional Arms Control Committee inrelation to the approval or denial of armsexport licence applications must ensurethat South Africa’s national interests, andthose of its allies, are protected.Traditionally Russia could be considereda South African ally due to the BRICSarrangement. However, reports of Russianperpetrated human rights abuses inUkraine would most likely override otherconsiderations in terms of South Africa’sarms export considerations.In addition, such decisions must notcontribute to• internal repression• the systematic violation or suppression ofhuman rights and fundamental freedoms• terrorism and crime• the escalation of regional militaryconflicts• the endangering of peace.All arms export applications by armsexporters are carefully considered by ascrutiny committee and, thereafter, bythe National Conventional Arms ControlCommittee. This is made up of a broadspectrum of cabinet ministers.Consequently, decisions related to exportpermit applications frequently take aninordinate amount of time. The annualarms export reports show that SouthAfrica generally adheres to the Section 15criteria. But it has exported defence-relatedequipment to states that do not meet thesecriteria. Examples include Myanmar andSaudi Arabia.If the Arms Control Committee hadconsidered an application to exportarms and or ammunition to Russia, thenconsensus among cabinet ministers wouldhave been necessary. This would havebeen doubtful as ministers responsiblefor trade and industry and finance wouldhave indicated that arms exports to Russiawould have dire consequences for SouthAfrica’s trade relations with the US whichis South Africa’s second largest exportmarket after China.On top of this, the entire defence sectorin South Africa would suffer negativerepercussions and might even be sanctionedby other governments.The devil is in the intelligence reportsThere is still a possibility that ammunitionand/or arms could have been loaded ontothe Lady R illegally. But such an endeavourwould have required the payment ofconsiderable bribes to officials on thedocks and the manufacture of fraudulentexport documentation.In addition, substantial illegal armstransactions typically take place throughcontainer ports where they can be moreeasily concealed.The crux of the arms-to-Russia allegationsrelates to the content of the US intelligencereports. It’s therefore essential thatthese are declassified and provided tothe commission of inquiry as soon as itundertakes its work. They should also bemade public.
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