Jill Lewis - The Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport

CONGESTION
(Speech given by Andrew Stewart at the recent CEDA
Address, please note that this is his personal view)
1950 – 3 billion people, of which 1.5
billion in dire poverty (a famine, flood or,
disease or drought means death)
2010 – 7 billion people of which less
than 1.5 billion in dire poverty (possibly
only 900 million). So 6 billion benefit
from the miracle of economic
development of the last 60 years.
The caves of our house in France were
first built in 791, and since then there
has been more time when the
population and economy of the world
has been negative than positive. Only in
the last 150 years has there been
sustained improvement, only in the last
60 such sustained improvement for so
many.
And that has consequences.....in today’s
case, congestion. But let’s not get so
tied on a problem that we forget it is a
consequence of a miracle of economic
development.
So Congestion – an inconvenience, a
real cost – just to business or also to
consumers, the price of modern life?
Is congestion defined just by the
inconvenience to me, or the real cost of
lost time to business and slowed supply
chains and frustrated staff and
overloaded infrastructure?
In 2001, as part of the Transport
Logistics Action Agenda, we set an
agenda, but unfortunately not much
action. A major point of that report was
that passenger and freight movements
would continue to increase – and by
about one and a half times GDP growth.
They might drop to 1 and a quarter
given electronics was reducing size of
stuff. But we pointed out that more stuff
was being imported, distribution
patterns were becoming increasingly
complex, and that people’s travel
patterns were increasingly complex and
unpredictable.
A decade later, we were correct in our
analysis.
Unfortunately we did not win the
political conversation so the Bob Carr
Movement whereby he could sit at
Maroobra Beach to tell the tide not to
come in – or Australia’s population NOT
to increase by a third of a million a year.
We need to accept that Bob Canute
Carr was wrong. We are fortunate that
our population is only increasing at a
third a million a year.......from most other
places in the world, there’d be a
stampede to enjoy our lifestyle.
And that won’t let up, as I know as a
world traveller with people in Europe,
Asia, China increasingly asking how
they can be part of our country. So let’s
accept the economic development
miracle globally will continue another
30 plus years – I will use the Chinese
forecasts that use 2040 as a
baseline.....that’s when they expect
world population to peak (perhaps
Africa excepted), the middle class to be
half the world’s population (that’s more
than 4 billion) ....and China to be leading
country. Just the momentum of current
population and economic growth will
propel us for another few decades of
growth..........so let’s just accept that and
plan for it.
Three factors will impact on the
congestion of our life in a more populated
and urbanised world (and Australia
probably the fastest growing developed
nation for the next few decades)
1/ Size and Scale
2/ Speed and
3/ Sophistication.
1/ Melbourne is dredging its harbour to
accept Super Panamax ships. That’s a
consequence of globalisation that offers
economies of scale in manufacture and
movement. But that means an extra
4000 to 6000 movements in each four
day visit of a container ship. Given the
rail system is at capacity (despite a
decade long wrangle to allow double
stacking) and most of those movements
will be in or close to Melbourne, much
of that concentrated extra movement
will be by truck. Our 2001 forecasts
were politically played with (we had to
change the minimum growth forecasts
to maximums so we didn’t clash too
much with infrastructure funding
forecasts......but that’s another story).
Before the Super Panamax ships have
arrived, we are ahead of forecast for
port traffic movement.
And anyone who has enjoyed the A380
trip knows the congestion they cause in
and around airports (the pax side
alone). Or the growing scale of major
events that Melbourne shows the world
how to handle major people movements.
And if you want me to scream, just
suggest that we should be carting more
produce or stuff for consumers by
trains......here’s the facts. The coal
trains are so long and so profitable in
Queensland, that most of the general
freight has been canned and any
increase on the Queensland lines is
‘deferred for the foreseeable future”.
Size of coal trains means barely
adequate infrastructure (mainly where
the coal lines join or use sections of the
general lines) and lack of passing loops
makes the rail share of general freight
fall. That’s just one consequence of
scale. That is a form of congestion
whereby infrastructure is crowded even
in the open Queensland plains.
The examples of size are numerous, but
the picture is economies of scale
produced cost savings for many, but
INVOLVE | INFORM | RECOGNISE | DEVELOP