THAILAND'S MOMENT OF TRUTH - ZENJOURNALIST

I. “A WATERSHED EVENT IN THAI HISTORY”
One inescapable and traumatizing fact haunts 21st century Thailand, and not even the country's most
potent myths have the power to tame it: Bhumibol Adulyadej, the beloved Rama IX, is approaching the
end of his life. Frail and hospitalized, he is already just a shadow of his former self.
His designated successor, Crown Prince Maha Chakri Vajiralongkorn, is widely despised and feared.
Whether or not the prince becomes Rama X, the royal succession will be a time of profound national
anxiety and uncertainty far more shattering and painful even than the tragic events of the past five years
of worsening social and political conflict.
The looming change in monarch and the prolonged political crisis gripping Thailand are - of course -
inextricably intertwined. A large number of parallel conflicts are being fought at all levels of Thai society,
in the knowledge that Bhumibol's death will be a game-changing event that will fundamentally alter
longstanding power relationships among key individuals and institutions, and may also totally rewrite the
rules of the game. Ahead of the succession, the leading players are fighting to position themselves for of
the inevitable paradigm shift.
Professor Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of the Institute of Security and International Studies at
Chulalongkorn University's faculty of political science, describes the crisis beautifully in Thailand Since
the Coup, published in the Journal of Democracy in 2008:
The setting sun of the King’s long reign is the background against which the battle of attrition for
Thailand’s soul is taking place. In this twilight struggle are locked opposing webs of partisans and
vested interests both for and against what Thaksin has done to Thailand. The old establishment
confronts the popular demands and expectations that the age of globalization has wrought, and
strains to find ways to render the new voices irrelevant.
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When very important U.S. officials come to town, American ambassadors around the world prepare
for them a confidential "scenesetter", a concise briefing to read during their flight, about the country in
which they are about to arrive. In July 2009, it was the task of Eric G. John, the American ambassador in
Bangkok and a former deputy assistant secretary of state for Southeast Asia, to write a scenesetter for a
particularly important visitor: his boss, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the woman in charge of
the foreign policy of the most powerful nation in the world.
Here is what he wrote about the "troubled kingdom" of Thailand in cable
09BANGKOK1662, "THAILAND SCENESETTER FOR SECRETARY CLINTON'S JULY 21-23
VISIT":
Madam Secretary: You will arrive July 21 in a Kingdom of Thailand divided politically and
focused inward, uncertain about the country's future after revered but ailing 81 year old King