THE CARIBSAVE CLIMATE CHANGE RISK ATLAS

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Observed Mean 1970-99 Table 3.6.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in sunshine hours for Jamaica. Observed Trend 1960-2006 Jamaica: Country Scale Changes in Sunshine Hours Projected changes by the 2020s 16 Projected changes by the 2050s Projected changes by the 2080s (hrs) (change in hrs Change in hrs Change in hrs Change in hrs per decade) Min Median Max Min Median Max Min Median Max A2 -0.2 0.2 0.5 -0.3 0.2 0.6 -0.2 0.4 0.9 Annual 6.4 0.28 A1B -0.3 0.0 0.4 -0.2 0.2 0.4 -0.3 0.3 0.8 B1 -0.4 0.2 0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.5 -0.2 0.3 0.6 A2 0.0 0.2 0.5 -0.3 0.2 0.4 -0.5 0.3 0.6 DJF 7.5 0.19 A1B -0.2 0.0 0.3 -0.4 0.2 0.5 -0.5 0.2 0.7 B1 -0.1 0.0 0.3 -0.4 0.1 0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.6 A2 -0.4 0.1 0.4 -0.4 0.2 0.6 -1.1 0.3 0.8 MAM 6.6 0.78* A1B -0.6 0.1 0.3 -0.8 0.2 0.5 -0.8 -0.1 0.7 B1 -0.8 0.2 0.5 -0.6 0.0 0.4 -0.5 0.1 0.7 A2 -0.5 0.2 1.0 -0.8 0.5 1.2 -0.9 0.8 1.9 JJA 5.7 0.40* A1B -0.7 0.2 0.7 -0.3 0.6 0.9 -0.7 0.8 1.6 B1 -0.4 0.3 0.6 -0.5 0.5 0.8 -0.4 0.6 1.2 A2 -0.1 0.1 0.6 -0.6 0.2 0.7 -0.4 0.4 1.0 SON 5.8 -0.26 A1B -0.5 0.0 0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.7 -0.5 0.3 1.1 B1 -0.5 0.1 0.6 -0.4 0.1 0.9 -0.6 0.1 0.6 Table 3.6.2: GCM and RCM projected changes in sunshine hours for Jamaica under the A2 scenario 3.7. Sea Surface Temperatures Projected Changes by 2080s (A2 Scenario) Change in hrs GCM Ensemble -0.2 0.4 0.9 Annual RCM (Echam4) 0.8 RCM (HadCM3) 1.4 GCM Ensemble -0.5 0.3 0.6 DJF RCM (Echam4) 1.0 RCM (HadCM3) 1.0 GCM Ensemble -1.1 0.3 0.8 MAM RCM (Echam4) 0.5 RCM (HadCM3) 0.6 GCM Ensemble -0.9 0.8 1.9 JJA RCM (Echam4) 0.8 RCM (HadCM3) 1.9 GCM Ensemble -0.4 0.4 1.0 SON RCM (Echam4) 0.7 RCM (HadCM3) 2.0 Sea-surface temperatures from the HadSST2 gridded dataset indicate statistically significant increasing trends in JJA and SON of +0.7˚C per decade in the waters surrounding Jamaica. GCM projections indicate continuing increases in sea-surface temperatures throughout the year. Projected increases range between +0.9˚C and +2.7˚C by the 2080s, across all three emissions scenarios. Increases
tend to be fractionally higher in SON than in other seasons (1.0˚ to 2.9˚C by 2080). The range of projections under and single emissions scenario spans around 1.0˚ to 1.5˚C. Table 3.7.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in sea surface temperature for Jamaica Observed Mean 1970-99 Jamaica: Country Scale Changes in Sea-Surface Temperature Observed Trend 1960-2006 Projected changes by the 2020s 17 Projected changes by the 2050s Projected changes by the 2080s (˚C) (change in ˚C Change in ˚C Change in ˚C Change in ˚C per decade) Min Median Max Min Median Max Min Median Max A2 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.3 2.7 Annual 27.8 0.04 A1B 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.5 1.6 1.3 2.2 2.6 B1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.6 1.0 1.2 0.9 1.4 1.8 A2 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.3 1.7 1.8 2.2 2.8 DJF 26.9 0.01 A1B 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.4 1.7 1.3 2.1 2.6 B1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.4 1.0 1.3 0.9 1.3 1.9 A2 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.7 2.3 2.7 MAM 27.1 0.02 A1B 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.4 1.5 1.1 2.1 2.5 B1 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.9 1.3 0.7 1.3 1.8 A2 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.7 2.0 2.4 2.7 JJA 28.5 0.07* A1B 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.5 1.7 1.3 2.2 2.5 B1 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.2 0.9 1.4 1.7 A2 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.5 2.9 SON 28.7 0.07* A1B 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.5 1.8 1.5 2.3 2.9 B1 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.0 1.4 1.8 3.8. Temperature Extremes ‘Extreme’ hot or cold values are defined by the temperatures that are exceeded on 10% of days in the ‘current’ climate or reference period. This allows us to define ‘hot’ or ‘cold’ relative to the particular climate of a specific region or season, and determine changes in extreme events relative to that location. In Jamaica, the frequency of days and nights that are classed as ‘hot’ for their season according to recent climate standards have increased in frequency at a statistically significant rate over the period 1973-2008. The annual average frequency of ‘hot’ days and nights has increased by an additional 6% (an additional 22 days per year) every decade. The frequency of hot nights has increased particularly rapidly in JJA when their frequency has increased by 9.8% (an additional 3 hot nights per month in JJA) per decade. The frequency of ‘cold’ nights has decreased at a rate of 4% fewer ‘cold’ nights (14 fewer cold nights in every year) per decade. GCM projections indicate continued increases in the frequency of ‘hot’ days and nights, with their occurrence reaching 30-98% of days annually by the 2080s. The rate of increase varies substantially between models for each scenario, such that under A2 the most conservative increases result in frequency of 49% by the 2080s, with other models indicating frequencies as high as 98%. Those days/nights that are considered ‘hot’ for their season are projected to increase most rapidly in JJA and SON, occurring on 60 to 100% of days/nights in JJA and SON by the 2080s. ‘Cold’ days/nights diminish in frequency, occurring on a maximum of 2% of days/nights by the 2080s, and do not occur at all in projections from some models by the 2050s. Cold days/nights decrease in frequency most rapidly in JJA.
Page 1 and 2: Caribbean Regional Headquarters Has
Page 3 and 4: 4.2.6. Tourism-related vulnerabilit
Page 5 and 6: 6.2. Water Quality and Availability
Page 7 and 8: Figure 5.7.1: Relationship of the D
Page 9 and 10: Table 4.2.3: UK air passenger duty
Page 11 and 12: ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The CARIBSAVE Part
Page 13 and 14: Fisheries. This work was conducted
Page 15 and 16: LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS
Page 17 and 18: INSMET ----------------------- Mete
Page 19 and 20: WRA --------------------------- Wat
Page 21 and 22: Overview of Climate Change Issues i
Page 23 and 24: Results from the field study sites
Page 25 and 26: Capital costs are also high, with r
Page 27 and 28: Agriculture and Food Security Figur
Page 29 and 30: pressure for at least two reasons:
Page 31 and 32: quite extensive and have been devel
Page 33 and 34: Figure 10: Blue Lagoon, Jamaica Unf
Page 35 and 36: 1. GLOBAL AND REGIONAL CONTEXT The
Page 37 and 38: operating expenses (e.g. insurance,
Page 39 and 40: Table 2.2.1: Gross Domestic Product
Page 41 and 42: 3. CLIMATE MODELLING: OBSERVED AND
Page 43 and 44: Observed Mean 1970-99 Table 3.2.1:
Page 45 and 46: Table 3.3.2: GCM and RCM projected
Page 47 and 48: Observed Mean 1970-99 Table 3.4.1:
Page 49: Table 3.5.2: GCM, RCM projected cha
Page 53 and 54: Observed Mean 1970-99 % Frequency O
Page 55 and 56: Table 3.9.1: Observed and GCM proje
Page 57 and 58: 3.10. Hurricanes and Tropical Storm
Page 59 and 60: Tidal Gauge Station Observed trend
Page 61 and 62: 4. VULNERABILITY AND IMPACTS PROFIL
Page 63 and 64: the Office of Utilities (OUR) of Ja
Page 65 and 66: The National Water Commission (NWC)
Page 67 and 68: Figure 4.1.4: Wells in Rio Minho, K
Page 69 and 70: 4.2. Energy Supply and Distribution
Page 71 and 72: Figure 4.2.2: Per capita emissions
Page 73 and 74: Table 4.2.2: Assessment of CO2-emis
Page 75 and 76: show that overall energy use will i
Page 77 and 78: development of these oil sources is
Page 79 and 80: Band, and appropriate distance in I
Page 81 and 82: causing a slight delay in growth in
Page 83 and 84: The Agriculture Sector Plan for Vis
Page 85 and 86: this initiative which seeks to addr
Page 87 and 88: western half, the leeward side of t
Page 89 and 90: Figure 4.3.2: Climate Change Impact
Page 91 and 92: in the Jamaican tourism industry is
Page 93 and 94: 1 Population 2,698,800 2 Human Deve
Page 95 and 96: and speed of virus replication.’
Page 97 and 98: the south eastern coastal region ex
Page 99 and 100: (Cholera, 2008b), outbreaks in 2010
Page 101 and 102:
4.5. Marine and Terrestrial Biodive
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systems as is the case in the easte
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Figure 4.5.2). The greater part of
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(Source: Adapted from IUCN and UNEP
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Other significant species and habit
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Climate change impacts on forests W
Page 113 and 114:
Severe storms such as hurricanes ca
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4.6. Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge
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for this analysis. The prediction o
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of elevation change above sea level
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4.7. Comprehensive Natural Disaster
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Types of Hazards in the Caribbean B
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(financial, human, physical, social
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4.8. Community Livelihoods, Gender,
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7. decline in the health of coral r
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4.8.3. Implications for gender-spec
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5. ADAPTIVE CAPACITY PROFILE FOR JA
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translate into the ability to rever
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ecause the data are collected for t
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heaters for the tourism industry an
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on tourist expenditure by country a
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Figure 5.2.2: Change in electricity
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5.3. Agriculture and Food Security
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Trust/NTA, RADA, CARDI, IICA, FAO,
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5.4. Human Health 5.4.1. Policy The
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(NSWMA), the National Irrigation Co
Page 153 and 154:
Figure 5.4.1: Island Wide Hospitals
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can be built. The specific challeng
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Legislation Impact on Biodiversity
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however, continued due to increased
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Bluefield’s Bay, Treasure Beach,
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5.6. Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge
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Protection Type Advantages Disadvan
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Decisions regarding where retreat p
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Caribbean Disaster Management and C
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Table 5.7.1: Enhanced Comprehensive
Page 173 and 174:
to be completed in 2011 (ODPEM Inte
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Development and EIA: Commercial and
Page 177 and 178:
5.8. Community Livelihoods, Gender,
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Household headship More than half o
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70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00%
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Further, 78.57% of respondents from
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This was particularly the case for
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Table 5.8.16: Sample Distribution b
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The issue of communication in the i
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Site of Decision Making Male Headed
Page 193 and 194:
Table 5.8.28: Use and Importance of
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Table 5.8.29: Use and Importance of
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Further to this, only 53.85% of res
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� In the event of a Landslide, 64
Page 201 and 202:
Similar to patterns observed in rel
Page 203 and 204:
Table 5.8.39: Adaptation Strategies
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6. RECOMMENDED STRATEGIES AND INITI
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6.1.2. Mainstreaming Climate Change
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Due to the interrelated nature of s
Page 211 and 212:
signals. It is important for these
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Ecosystem-based management consider
Page 215 and 216:
Medium Term Actions Expand early wa
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7. CONCLUSION 7.1. Climate Modellin
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7.3. Energy Supply and Distribution
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and the relationship between the st
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ole of women in preparation and res
Page 225 and 226:
Barnett, M. W., (2010): The Impact
Page 227 and 228:
Burke, L., M. Spalding, P. Kramer,
Page 229 and 230:
Chen, A. A., D. D. Chadee and S. C.
Page 231 and 232:
Duke, N. C., M. C. Ball, and J. C.
Page 233 and 234:
Francis, B. M., L. Moseley and S. O
Page 235 and 236:
Gomez-Martin, M. B., (2005): Weathe
Page 237 and 238:
Haraksingh, I., (2001): Renewable e
Page 239 and 240:
Jackson-Miller, D., (2010): All Ang
Page 241 and 242:
Luers, A. L., and S. C. Moser, (200
Page 243 and 244:
Moreno, A. R., (2006): Climate chan
Page 245 and 246:
ODPEM (Office of Disaster Preparedn
Page 247 and 248:
Rankine, D., (2007): Initial Vulner
Page 249 and 250:
STATIN (Statistical Institute of Ja
Page 251 and 252:
UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Co
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THE CARIBSAVE CLIMATE CHANGE RISK ATLAS

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