Present Scenario and Future Prospects - Science Vision

� Salt-water intrusion, due to up-welling from
underlying saline aquifer
� Deteriorating performance of public
tubewells, resulting in increased pumping
costs
Annual Rainfall in mm
Drought
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Station
Sargodha
Lahore
Multan
Hyderabad
Source: Pakistan Meteorological Department rainfall data
Frequency of occurrence of droughts has
increased in recent years. The Drought
phenomenon (dry year) has been observed to
occur in 4 out of 10 years, instead of 3 out of
10. The precipitation during the years 1997-
2000 has been exceptionally low as in this
period the precipitation over most of the
country has been less than 50% of the normal,
causing severe loss to agricultural production.
The rainfalls have been showing a generally
decreasing trend since 1997, which was the
peak-year (Figure-4). The effect of the
continued low rainfalls over most of the
country since the last three years has resulted
in low river flows and drought conditions. Not
only precious human lives were lost, but also
Water-Resources in Pakistan: Challenges and Future Strategies
Jacobabad
thousands of livestock heads died due to
damage to the rangelands and fodder crops.
The catastrophe exposed the serious
limitations in our water-development,
management, and utilization systems and
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Nawabshah
Rohri
Peshawar
Figure - 4. Rainfall over Irrigated Areas
Kohat
D.I. Khan
Sibi
policies, which calls for a comprehensive
strategy/policy on water to streamline the
problems of water- resources of the country in
the near and far future.
The recent long drought-conditions have
affected 75 out of 106 districts in Pakistan.
Estimates show that, between November 1999
and July 2000, 143 humans and 2.48 million
livestock died. The loss has been more
pronounced in the arid areas of Balochistan
and Sindh. In addition, increased incidence of
malnutrition, diarrhea, respiratory infections,
Table - 5: Reduction in Capacities of Major Reservoirs
Reservoir
Year
Commissioned
Live Storage Capacity
(MAF)
Starting 2000 2010
Decrease
(%)
2000 2010
Mangla 1967 5.3 4.5 4.2 15 21
Tarbela 1974 9.7 8.8 7.3 9 25
Chashma 1971 0.7 0.3 0.2 57 71
Total 15.7 13.6 11.7 13 25
Source: Three Years Development Programme (2001-04), Planning Commission, GoP
measles, malaria, school drop-outs, and
permanent dislocation of families have been
observed. The drought has also been
responsible for seawater intrusion in deltaic
areas, migration of cattle due to worsening
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