Ian Waitz Department of Aeronautics and ... - SERDP-ESTCP
Ian Waitz Department of Aeronautics and ... - SERDP-ESTCP
Ian Waitz Department of Aeronautics and ... - SERDP-ESTCP
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Influence <strong>of</strong> uncertainties <strong>and</strong> policymaker<br />
preferences (30 year scenario, impacts <strong>of</strong><br />
U.S. ops only)!<br />
Valuation:!<br />
Scientific:!<br />
Damage !<br />
Coefficient!<br />
Discount !<br />
Rate!<br />
Background<br />
CO 2 Scenario!<br />
NO x Effect!<br />
Climate !<br />
sensitivity!<br />
RF* !<br />
short-lived!<br />
0.5x! 2x!<br />
3%!<br />
7%! 2%!<br />
A2! A1B!<br />
2K!<br />
-90%<br />
Cl!<br />
Nominal case!<br />
Stevenson! Wild!<br />
3K!<br />
Non-CO 2<br />
contribution!<br />
CO 2<br />
contribution!<br />
+90%<br />
Cl!<br />
4.5K!<br />
Ecological <strong>and</strong> !<br />
economic<br />
uncertainty!<br />
Policymaker<br />
choice!<br />
Alternative<br />
futures!<br />
Uncertainty<br />
unique to<br />
aviation!<br />
Global modeling<br />
uncertainty!<br />
Uncertainty<br />
unique to<br />
aviation!<br />
20!
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