Lucio Pench

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Outline 1. Origins of the crisis 2. Daunting fiscal challenges 3. The fiscal strategy 4. Austerity versus growth 5. Fiscal and external adjustments 6. Fiscal governance: recent reforms 7. Euro area governance: which agenda? 2
Banking crisis triggered dangerous feedback loops Bank solvency concerns More Banking / Financial Strains Negative wealth effect Tighter financial conditions index Reduced loan supply Bailout costs Lower corporate profits Credit losses Source: Goldman Sachs, Global Economics Weekly 11/38, 30/11/2011 Higher Government Bond Yields Deeper Recession Higher debt service Calls for fiscal tightening Default worries Higher Government Debtto-GDP Ratio Lower nominal GDP Lower tax receipts 3
Page 1: Euro area fiscal governance Shortco
Page 5 and 6: Public debt in perspective: The cri
Page 7 and 8: The exit strategy as set in late 20
Page 9 and 10: 0,0 -0,5 -1,0 -1,5 -2,0 -2,5 -3,0 -
Page 11 and 12: The Stability and Growth Pact offer
Page 13 and 14: Fiscal multipliers Value: Fiscal mu
Page 15 and 16: Impact of euro area consolidation w
Page 17 and 18: Determinants of debt limit Source:
Page 19 and 20: Fiscal and external adjustments: co
Page 21 and 22: Governance changes: an overview Ref
Page 23 and 24: Fiscal integration: what is still m
Page 25: Articulating short and long-term so

Lucio Pench

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