1687.pdf

Figure 2. Depending on assumptions regarding technological change, resource utilization
strategies, and other factors, there are a number of scenarios that can be used in
the model to generate specifi c predictions regarding a number of parameters. A
few of these parameters are indicated here. “Star Trek” is a scenario of technologically
optimistic policies in a world that in fact produces new alternative energy
sources and solutions to technologic and environmental problems, “Mad Max”
involves technologic optimism that is not supported by new energy sources or
solutions, “Big Government” is technologically pessimistic but with new alternative
energy sources and solutions, and “Ecotopia” involves little technologic change,
with no new sources of energy or other novel approaches to current and future
environmental issues. Note that in all scenarios, present trends generally continue
for some time, and then reverse for various reasons.
12
References
are shown to have the
best chance (given
uncertainty about key
parameters) of achieving
high and sustainable
welfare per capita.
This means increased
relative rates of investment
in knowledge,
social capital, and natural
capital, and reduced
relative rates of consumption
and investment
in built capital.
With these preliminary
results, we can continue to
move forward in the development
of GUMBO in order
to further improve its capacity
to model humans in natural
systems.
Robert Costanza and
Roel Boumans
Gund Institute of Ecological Economics
(http://www.uvm.edu/giee)
The University of Vermont
Burlington
E-mail: Robert.Costanza@uvm.edu,
Roel.Boumans@uvm.edu
Dork Sahagian
IGBP/GAIM
Morse Hall, University of New Hampshire
Durham,
USA
E-mail: gaim@unh.edu
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http://www.ipcc.ch/.
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and van den Belt M. (1997) The value of the world’s ecosystem services and natural capital. Nature 387:253-260.
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