Tropical Cyclone QPF

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Rainfall forecasts from landfalling TC’s standard forecasting tools • Local <strong>Tropical</strong> <strong>Cyclone</strong> Rainfall Climatology • GFS/NAM/GFDL precipitation forecasts • r-CLIPER (Climatology based on 1 st order stations) • TRaP (persistence to capture structure/Day 1) standard validation tools • bias score • equitable threat score
Factors impacting rainfall distributions in landfalling TC’s • Storm track • Storm size • Topography • Nearby synoptic-scale features • Time of day – core rainfall overnight/ outer band rainfall during daylight
Page 1: Tropical Cyclone QPF David Roth NOA
Page 5 and 6: Picking an analog for a TC event
Page 7 and 8: Isabel (2003) vs. Fran (1996)
Page 9 and 10: ETS = Fcst Obs QPF Equitable Threat
Page 11 and 12: Maximum Potential Equitable Threat
Page 13 and 14: Model Forecast Biases/ Verification
Page 15 and 16: 0-100 km QPF Skill - Core Rainfall
Page 17 and 18: Summary comparison for all models (
Page 19 and 20: Bias Cindy, Dennis, Katrina, Opheli

Tropical Cyclone QPF

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