Aspetto e negazione: l'elemento 'altro' in veneto - Atlante Sintattico ...

IMF Research Bulletin6Dismal Employment Growth in EU Countries(continued from page 5)• During 2008–11 there was a negative relationshipbetween the increase in the profit share and GDP growth.Profit shares increased sharply in several countries withlarge output declines, while they declined in a numberof core euro area countries where output increased. Thissuggests that—for this particular period—causality didnot go from GDP growth to profits, but rather that corporaterestructuring (which boosted corporate profits)had a negative impact on GDP.• Larger profit share increases were also associated withbigger increases in labor productivity. The increase inproductivity likely reflects restructuring by enterprisesto produce the same output with fewer workers. It maypartly also reflect a composition effect, as sectors withlower labor productivity (including, in particular, theconstruction sector in some countries) were hit disproportionallyby the crisis.The combination of a sharp increase in labor productivitywith a decline in output is very different from thepositive relationship observed during normal times.Between 2003 and 2008, faster GDP growth was associatedwith higher labor productivity growth. Between 2008 and2011, this relationship broke down, and labor productivitygrowth was fastest in some of the countries with the largestoutput declines.Labor Market Duality Did Not HelpThere are large differences across European countries in theduality of the labor market. In some countries a large shareof employment consists of temporary jobs. In these countriesthere is a stark difference between insiders (who have permanentjobs and cannot easily be fired) and outsiders (who havetemporary jobs).We would expect that countries with dual labor marketswill see sharper reductions of employment than other countries.For a given level of output, profit shares can be increasedeither through employment reductions or wage declines. Incountries with dual labor markets, it is likely that much ofthe adjustment will go through employment reductions ratherthan wage cuts, as insiders have little incentive to adjustwages, while outsiders can easily be fired. Indeed, we showin our paper that in countries with a high share of temporaryemployment, real wage growth is much less sensitive tounemployment changes.Figure 2. Decomposition of Employment Growth 2008–11Employment growth (%)151050–5–10–15–20Due to GDP growthDue to share of temporaryworkersEmployment growth 2008–11Econometric AnalysisEconometric regression analysis confirms that the three factorsdiscussed—real GDP growth, corporate balance sheetrepair, and labor market duality—all contributed to the largecross-country differences in employment growth during2008–11. The results are robust to introducing other precrisisimbalance measures to the model, such as current accountdeficits and the size of the construction sector.A decomposition exercise illustrates the important roles ofboth the increase in corporate profits and labor market dualityin the large drop in employment that occurred in a number ofcountries. Figure 2 shows that among all the countries whereemployment dropped by more than 7 percent, with the notableexception of Greece, the increase in profits accounted for morethan 50 percent of the job losses. The figure also shows thatlabor market duality contributed over 4 percentage points tothe employment losses in Spain, Poland, and Portugal.Policy ImplicationsDue to profit share changeDue to other factorsPolandGermanyBelgiumSwedenAustriaFranceUnited KingdomNetherlandsCzech RepublicHungaryItalyFinlandSlovak RepublicDenmarkSloveniaPortugalEstoniaLithuaniaGreeceSpainLatviaIrelandSources: IMF, World Economic Outlook database; Haver Analytics;and IMF staff estimates.The analysis in this paper suggests that the large employmentlosses in many countries have been the result of a corporateadjustment process, which helped restore the financial healthof the corporate sector. While the adjustment has deepened therecession, it has also helped set the stage for renewed growth.It is difficult to determine ex ante when the corporateadjustment will have run its course. There are, however, signsthat in at least some of the crisis-hit countries, the processmay be nearing its end. For instance, in Ireland, the profitshare stopped increasing and the wage bill ended its decline