1 doc. Egidijus Rimkus, prof. Arūnas Bukantis, doc. Gintautas ...

as many as 29 days – dates of the permanent temperature transition through 0 °C were shifted closer
to midwinter period. Moreover at the end of the 20 th century, the number of extremely cold days
(Tmin ≤ -20 °C) has decreased whereas the frequency of hot days (Tmax ≥ 25 °C) – increased.
Precipitation rate in the cold season tend to increase and in the warm season – decrease because of
the more intense cyclonic activity in Baltic region in winter and more frequent quasi stationary
anticyclones – in summer. The number of days with precipitation in winter also increased. Besides
the precipitation type in winter has been changed – increased liquid precipitation fraction.
Climate studies showed that the last decade of 20 th century distinquished by unique
climatic phenomenon on several successive extremely warm winters (1988/1989 – 1994/1995) –
Eastern Europe has never evidenced such a long series of exceptionally positive anomalies.
According to the results of simulations based on six climate models used worldwide
(HadCM2, ECHAM4, CGCM1, GFDL-R30, CSIRO-Mk2 and CCSR/NIES) air temperature in
Lithuania has to increase in the 21 st century. December- March temperatures should experience the
highest rate of change during first half of this century. In the second half December temperatures
increase rate will slow down but February temperatures at the end of the century should be by 4-6
°C higher. So forecasts coincide with the current climate change tendencies in Lithuania and show
the regional climate to become more marine type. Climate models give rather different results for
precipitation rate. All models simulate increasing precipitation rate on average but precipitation in
cold season should increase faster than in warm one, also interseasonal differences have to decrease.
Summarizing it is evident that together with the change of the regional hydrothermal
conditions there should be the substantial shift in mean dates and duration of seasons, in snow
depth, hydrological regime of rivers and reservoirs, agricultural works. From the other hand the
rising number of extreme weather like hurricane strength cyclones, droughts, floods, hot waves and
cold outbreaks should bring outspread damages in agriculture, industry, recreation and life quality.
Šis straipsnis skelbtas žurnale „Geologijos akiračiai“:
Rimkus E., Bukantis A., Stankūnavičius G. (2006). Klimato kaita: faktai ir prognozės. Geologijos akiračiai, 1 (61):
10-20.
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