20080418 Nieuwsflash 028.indd - Koen Hoefgeest® Optie Advies

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1 8 a p r i l 2 0 0 8 n r 0 2 8 FFFFS FFFFS 1 2 / 1 7 Nieuws-Flash! Swaps tied to losses became `Frankenstein’s monster’ De derivatenberg is niet meer onder controle.. April 15 (Bloomberg) -- The credit-default swap market has become a lesson in being careful what you wish for now that Wall Street has taken $245 billion of losses partly tied to such exotica. Rather than dispersing risk and lowering borrowing costs as former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan predicted, the contracts have exacerbated the debt crisis. What was intended as a way for lenders to protect against defaults spawned a market covering $45 trillion of bonds and loans where no one knows how much is traded and speculators who bet on deteriorating credit quality end up forcing that reality. Some credit-default indexes have morphed into what Wachovia Corp. analysts led by Glenn Schultz call ``Frankenstein’s monster’’ because they now often drive prices in the so-called cash bond market, rather than the other way around. Lees verder http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aMX2xgJrr GB8&refer=home Credit swaps top $62 trillion in rush to hedge losses En hoewel de controle over de deriatenberg kwijt is, vluchten beleggers nog steeds en masse naar de schijnzekerheid van derivaten.. April 16 (Bloomberg) -- Credit-default swaps worldwide expanded to cover $62.2 trillion of debt in 2007 as investors rushed to protect against losses triggered by the collapse of the U.S. subprime mortgage market. Contracts outstanding rose 37 percent in the second half of 2007 from $45.5 trillion in the first half, the New York-based International Swaps and Derivatives Association said today. The market, which has grown from $34.5 trillion in 2006, doubled in each of the previous three years as traders used the derivatives as a cheaper and easier way to invest in corporate debt. Lees verder http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aWx6Laelq cxA&refer=home
1 8 a p r i l 2 0 0 8 n r 0 2 8 FFFFS 1 3 / 1 7 Nieuws-Flash! Oil surges as investors hunt an ‘anti-dollar’ Over een paar weken komt mijn nieuwe boek `De Permanente Oliecrisis`uit. Met een beetje geluk klopt de timing dit keer weer. Hoe de dollarcrisis tot een oliecrisis heeft geleid … Oil prices have surged to almost $115 a barrel as China builds up stocks before the Olympics and hedge funds pour money into commodity futures as a way to exploit the collapse of the dollar. The Opec producers cartel yesterday defied calls from Gordon Brown for a boost in output to help ease the global shortage, sticking to its target of 32 million barrels per day (bpd) for the next three months. There is some evidence that Opec has actually cut output by 350,000 bpd since the start of the year -- a hostile move in the current climate. It blames the latest spike on “speculators,” claiming that world demand will fall 1.4 million bpd to 85.7 million this quarter as the US grapples with recession. Societe Generale said the near $30 spike in prices since early February is largely due to money pouring into commodity index funds, now worth some $200 billion. Crude has taken on a “safehaven” role for investors fleeing the dollar, or those betting that central banks will let rip with excess liquidity. Lees verder http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/04/17/cnoil1... Lezermail Hierbij een artikel waarvan de schrijver aangeeft dat de huidige bearmarkt niet zomaar afgelopen is. Daarnaast geeft hij interessante inormatie over George Soros, die op 77-jarige leeftijd uit zijn pensionering is gestapt en blijkbaar het roer van zijn hedgefund weer heeft overgenomen. Om daarmee zijn visie, dat we ons bevinden in een barstende financiële superbubble, te vertalen in nieuwe shortposities. Wellicht iets voor een volgende nieuwsflash? http://www.wallstreetwindow.com/content/node/6373 George Soros heeft weer een interessant boek uitgegeven The credit risk of 2008 and what it means. Hij pleit hierin oa. dat de ongereguleerde CDS (Credit default Swaps) markt/instrumenten gereguleerd moeten worden. Het ontbreekt in die instrumenten aan het stellen van een ge
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20080418 Nieuwsflash 028.indd - Koen Hoefgeest® Optie Advies

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