Zeitliche Verschiebungen von Austrieb, Blüte, Fruchtreife und ...

Forum für Wissen 2006
53
5 Zusammenfassung
Pflanzen sind «integrierende Messinstrumente»
für die Witterung. Einer
der besten Bio-Indikatoren für den
Anstieg der Temperatur in den mittleren
und höheren Breiten sind Veränderungen
des Eintrittszeitpunktes von
phänologischen Phasen, wie Blattentfaltung,
Blüte oder Fruchtreife. Der
Lufttemperatur kommt dabei eine
Schlüsselrolle zu, denn die oben genannten
Frühjahrs- und Sommerphasen
werden im wesentlichen von der
Temperatur der vorangehenden Monate
beeinflusst.
In den letzten Jahrzehnten haben
sich diese Ereignisse im Schnitt um 2,3
Tage /Dekade verfrüht (PARMESAN
und YOHE 2003). Für Europa konnte
die COST725 Studie einen vergleichbaren
Wert von 2,5 Tagen /Dekade für
Blattentfaltung, Blüte und Fruchtreife
(75 218 Reihen) ermitteln. Blattentfaltung
und Blüte verfrühen sich dabei
um 2,5 Tage /°C Temperaturerhöhung,
Fruchtreife um 2,2 Tage /°C (MENZEL
et al. 2006).
MENZEL, A., 2002: Phenology, its importance
to the Global Change Community.
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379–385.
MENZEL, A., 2003: Phenological anomalies
in Germany and their relation to air temperature
and NAO. Clim. Chang. 57: 243–
263.
MENZEL, A.; DOSE, V., 2005: Analysis of
long-term time-series of beginning of flowering
by Bayesian function estimation.
Meteorol. Z. 14, 3: 429–434.
MENZEL, A.; SPARKS, T.; ESTRELLA, N.;
KOCH, E.; AASA, A.; AHAS, R.; ALM-KÜB-
LER, K.; BISSOLLI, P.; BRASLAVSKÁ, O.;
BRIEDE, A.; CHMIELEWSKI, F.M.; CREPIN-
SEK, Z.; CURNEL, Y.; DAHL, Å.; DEFILA,
C.; DONNELLY, A.; FILELLA, Y.; JATCZAK,
K.; MÅGE, F.; MESTRE, A.; NORDLI, Ø.;
PEÑUELAS, J.; PIRINEN, P.; REMISOVÁ, V.;
SCHEIFINGER, H.; STRIZ, M.; SUSNIK, A.;
VAN VLIET, A.J.H.; WIELGOLASKI, F.E.;
ZACH, S.; ZUST, A., 2006: European phenological
response to climate change
matches the warming pattern. Glob.
Chang. Biol. 12: 1969–1976.
PARMESAN, C.; YOHE, G., 2003: A globally
coherent fingerprint of climate change
impacts across natural systems. Nature
421: 37–42.
ROOT, T.L.; PRICE, J.T.; HALL, K.R.; SCHNEI-
DER, S.H.; ROSENZWEIG, C.; POUNDS, J.A.,
2003: Fingerprints of global warming on
wild animals and plants. Nature 421: 57–
60.
SCHLEIP, C., 2005: Bayesian analysis of climate
change impacts in European Phenology.
Unveröffentlichte Diplomarbeit
am Lehrstuhl für Ökoklimatologie der
TU München.
SCHLEIP, C.; MENZEL, A.; ESTRELLA, N.; DO-
SE, V.: The use of Bayesian analysis to detect
recent changes in phenological
events throughout the year. Agric. For.
Meteorol. Mskr. akzeptiert.
SPARKS, T.H.; MENZEL, A., 2002: Observed
changes in seasons: an overview. Int. J.
Climatol. 22: 1715–1725.
SPARKS,T.H.;TRYJANOWSKI, P., 2005:The detection
of climate impacts: Some methodological
considerations. Int. J. Climatol.
25: 271–277.
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6 Literatur
AHAS, R.; AASA, A.; MENZEL, A.; FEDOTO-
VA, V.G.; SCHEIFINGER, H., 2002: Changes
in European spring phenology. Int. J. Climatol.
22: 1727–1738.
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of Climate Change Impacts in Phenology.
Glob. Chang. Biol. 10: 259–272.
DOSE, V.; MENZEL, A., 2006: Bayesian Relation
between temperature data and blossom
onset observations. Glob. Chang.
Biol. 12, 9: 1451–1459.
ESTRELLA, N.; MENZEL, A., 2006: Responses
of leaf colouring of four deciduous tree
species to climate and weather in Germany
Climate Research (im Druck).
IPCC 2001: Climate Change, 2001: Impacts,
Adaptations, and Vulnerability. In:
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N.A.; DOKKEN, D.J.; WHITE, K.S. (eds)
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Panel on Climate Change.
New York, Cambridge University Press.
KAROLY, D.J.; WU, Q., 2005: Detection of
Regional Surface Temperature Trends. J.
Clim. 18, 21: 4337–4343.
Abstract
Changes in leaf unfolding, flowering, fruit ripening and leaf colouring due to
recent climate change
The onset of seasons, as observed in the seasonal cycle in nature, has undergone
major shifts during recent decades. Spring phenological phases, such as leaf unfolding
and flowering, are continuously advancing. The onset of summer phases, such
as flowering or fruit ripening, is also advancing. In contrast, the picture of autumn
is more heterogeneous with partly later onset of leaf colouring and leaf fall.A new
comprehensive European study (COST725) revealed that flowering and leaf unfolding
in spring (75 218 records) have advanced by 2.5 days /decade over the last
30 years. In total the vegetation period in Central Europe is now up to two weeks
longer than 30 years ago. This signal, which is most apparent in Germany and
Switzerland in the mid 1980s, can be attributed to warming due to the anthropogenic
greenhouse effect. This far-reaching study within the COST725 action further
revealed that the advance of bud burst and flowering is not an accidental result of
selected observational records, but is evident throughout Europe. Countries with
larger warming have experienced stronger changes in nature.
Keywords: phenology, vegetation period, spring, autumn, climate change