Der Embedded Value in der Schadenversicherung - Verlag ...

Heep-Altiner et al.: Der Embedded Value in der Schadenversicherung, Anhang mit Excel-Berechnungen© 2012 Verlag Versicherungswirtschaft GmbHBestandsentwicklung - Opening1. EingabeübersichtNeugeschäftsprämie 129.703 Verw altungskosten 15,00%Veränderung p. a. ab -12,50% Veränderung p. a. ab 1,00%max. Anzahl von Jahren ab t = 0 20 maximal für …. Jahre ab 15BE Bestandsreserve 95.374 Schadenquote inkl. SRK 77,50%HGB Reserve in % BE Reserve 161,42% Veränderung p. a. ab -0,50%beobachtet 161,42% max. Anzahl an Jahren ab 20gew ählt 161,42%Schw aRü in % der Prämie 26,18%2. ProjektionenPosition in der bzw . zumEnde der Periode0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Bestandsgeschäft Res. CF kum. 26,76% 46,78% 61,34% 71,93% 79,63% 85,23% 89,31% 92,27% 94,43% 95,99%NeugeschäftGesamtDiskontierte BEReservenRes. CF einz. 26,76% 20,02% 14,56% 10,59% 7,70% 5,60% 4,07% 2,96% 2,16% 1,57%Zahlung 25.518 19.095 13.887 10.100 7.346 5.343 3.886 2.826 2.055 1.495BE Reserve 95.374 69.855 50.761 36.873 26.773 19.427 14.084 10.198 7.372 5.317 3.822Prämie 129.703 113.490 99.304 86.891 76.029 66.526 58.210 50.934 44.567 38.996 34.122VW Quote 15,00% 15,15% 15,30% 15,45% 15,61% 15,77% 15,92% 16,08% 16,24% 16,41% 16,57%VW Kosten 17.194 15.195 13.429 11.867 10.488 9.269 8.191 7.239 6.397 5.654SQ inkl. SRK 77,50% 77,11% 76,73% 76,34% 75,96% 75,58% 75,20% 74,83% 74,45% 74,08% 73,71%Ultimates 87.515 76.193 66.335 57.753 50.281 43.776 38.113 33.182 28.889 25.151Ult. CF kum. 0,00% 68,54% 79,15% 86,19% 90,85% 93,94% 95,99% 97,35% 98,25% 98,84% 99,24%Ult. CF einz 68,54% 10,62% 7,04% 4,66% 3,09% 2,05% 1,36% 0,90% 0,60% 0,39%Zahlung 59.982 61.512 59.711 56.066 51.517 46.644 41.797 37.176 32.888 28.979BE Reserve 27.533 42.214 48.838 50.525 49.290 46.422 42.739 38.744 34.745 30.918Zahl. Ges 85.500 80.607 73.598 66.166 58.863 51.986 45.682 40.002 34.943 30.474Zahl. Alt 25.518 28.385 28.133 26.583 24.400 21.983 19.560 17.260 15.143 13.235Zahl. Neu 59.982 52.221 45.465 39.583 34.462 30.004 26.122 22.742 19.800 17.238BE Reserve 95.374 97.389 92.975 85.711 77.298 68.717 60.507 52.937 46.117 40.062 34.740HGB Reserve 153.951 157.204 150.079 138.354 124.774 110.922 97.669 85.450 74.441 64.668 56.077HGB Reserve Alt 153.951 112.760 81.937 59.520 43.217 31.359 22.734 16.462 11.900 8.582 6.169Aufw . Für Versich. 100.520 88.752 73.482 61.874 52.586 45.011 38.734 33.463 28.993 25.170 21.883Aufw . Für Vers. Alt 100.520 -15.673 -11.728 -8.530 -6.204 -4.512 -3.281 -2.387 -1.736 -1.262 -918Schw aRü 33.951 34.669 33.097 30.512 27.517 24.462 21.539 18.845 16.417 14.261 12.367Schw aRü Alt 33.951 24.867 18.070 13.126 9.531 6.916 5.014 3.630 2.624 1.893 1.361Abzinsung JE 100,00% 95,51% 91,53% 87,61% 83,75% 80,04% 76,44% 72,93% 69,50% 66,16% 62,92%Aufzinsung JM 102,32% 106,95% 111,68% 116,75% 122,14% 127,84% 133,94% 140,46% 147,47% 154,99%Abzinsung JM 97,73% 93,50% 89,54% 85,66% 81,88% 78,22% 74,66% 71,19% 67,81% 64,52%Disk. BE Res. JE 81.595 84.188 80.554 74.341 67.097 59.631 52.469 45.869 39.936 34.697 30.110Disk. BE Res. JM Ges. 83.454 86.086 82.406 76.080 68.687 61.069 53.756 47.012 40.945 35.580 30.877Disk. BE Res. JM Alt 83.454 61.263 44.426 32.219 23.372 16.941 12.272 8.885 6.428 4.646 3.352Forw ard Rate 0,00% 4,70% 4,36% 4,48% 4,60% 4,63% 4,71% 4,82% 4,93% 5,06% 5,14%Aufzinsung JE 100,00% 104,70% 109,26% 114,15% 119,40% 124,93% 130,82% 137,13% 143,88% 151,16% 158,93%243