Paddy-Power-Pope-Betting-Bible

Trying to predict
who the next
Pope will be is a
notoriously tricky
business.
In the early 1990s as
Pope John Paul II’s health
declined, the renowned
Vatican-watcher Peter
Hebblethwaite wrote a book
entitled The Next Pope. In
the book he predicted John
Paul’s imminent demise
and speculated on who
would succeed the Polish
Pontiff. Unfortunately for
him, Hebblethwaite died
in 1994 causing wags in
Rome to speculate that the Pope – who reigned for another
11 years – was working on a book to be titled The Next Peter
Hebblethwaite!
Candidates for the Papacy tend to keep their desire for the job
secret. When mentioned as ‘Papabile’ (a potential Pope) it is
considered poor form not to dismiss one’s own chances. This
may be due in part to the Italian proverb that “he who enters
the conclave as a Pope always comes out as a cardinal”.
So, with the above-mentioned health warning in mind, who
are the front-runners to replace Benedict XVI in Catholicism’s
top job? Geography will be crucial. In 2005, many observers
thought the cardinals would look to the developing world;
instead, they opted to stick with Europe and elect Joseph
Ratzinger. Indications are that they will look farther afield this
time around.

Cardinal Angelo
SColA
Italy (71)
Cardinal Peter
turkSon
Ghana (64)
Cardinal Marc
ouellet
Canada (68)
The Italians are pinning most of their hopes on Scola, he is one
of the few Papabile that have an active presence on Twitter,
almost a prerequisite now since Benedict took to the social
networking site late last year. He is considered conservative
and close to Italian politicians. He was hand-picked by Pope
John Paul II to lead an institute in Rome leading the Church’s
opposition to divorce, contraception, homosexuality and
abortion. He worked as an adviser to Pope Benedict in his
previous role in the Doctrine watchdog and is likely to lead the
conservative charge in the conclave. He is a former Patriarch
of Venice and now Archbishop of Milan – two dioceses that
remarkably have produced five of the eight Popes who reigned
during the 20th Century. That’s quite the record.
Turkson is the African with the most-realistic chance of
becoming Pope. He is considered an excellent communicator
and someone who is comfortable in any circumstance. He
is head of the Vatican’s Department for Justice and Peace
and therefore to the fore of the Church’s participation in
global politics. He has been sharply critical of capitalism and
has even called for a “world authority” to be established to
regulate market capitalism. At the same time, he is considered
theologically conservative while remaining open to dialogue.
He was a star turn at the International Eucharistic Congress in
Dublin last year where he mingled easily with ordinary pilgrims
and gave presentations lauded for their insight and teaching.
Ouellet, a French-Canadian could emerge as a good
compromise if the European cardinals decide that they want to
go for an almost-English speaker as opposed to a full-blooded
American. Having worked extensively in dioceses in Canada,
he is now head of the Vatican’s powerful office that appoints
bishops all over the world. He is well-regarded in Rome and
has worked extensively with other Christian Churches to try and
bring about greater unity.
Theologically he is conservative and tends towards traditionalist
practises within the Church. While even his critics don’t doubt
his sincerity, Roman commentators point to his obvious lack of
visible charisma as a limiting factor.

Cardinal Francis
Arinze
Nigeria (80)
Cardinal leonardo
SAndri
Argentina (69)
Cardinal odilo Pedro
SCherer
Brazil (63)
Arinze seems destined to be the black Pope that never was.
Nigerian by birth, he was brought to Rome in 1984 and made
a cardinal a year later under John Paul II. His easy manner and
keen administrative sense made him an obvious favourite as
potentially the Church’s first black Pope. But 2005 came and
went. Arinze turned 80 in November, and as such, is not allowed
to enter the conclave or to vote. It doesn’t entirely exclude him
from the change of being elected. However, for his brother
cardinals it is likely to be a case of “out of sight, out of mind.”
He is theologically conservative and has criticised a decision by
the Church in the 1980s to permit altar girls.
Sandri straddles two worlds: he is a native of Argentina, but
born of an Italian family. His lack of pastoral experience is a real
drawback. Ordained a priest in 1967, four years later he was
drafted into the Vatican’s diplomatic service and has served the
Roman Curia in this role ever since. He came to prominence in
2005 after becoming the man who read aloud Pope John Paul’s
messages when the Pontiff lost the power to speak. His career
took somewhat of a downward spiral under Benedict, and he
is currently head of a somewhat obscure Vatican office that
deals with eastern Catholic Churches. His ability as a diplomat
is unquestionable, and he knows the ins-and-outs of the Roman
Curia like no other. He remains largely unknown, however, to
cardinals non-resident in Rome.
Despite strong support for Cardinal Maradiaga as a Latin
American candidate, Scherer is seen as being more favoured
by European cardinals. He’s got plenty of Roman experience,
having studied at the Gregorian University and later worked in
the Congregation for Bishops in the Vatican. Within the Church
in Brazil he is seen as a conservative voice. However, that may
say more about the nature of the Church in Brazil. Overseas, he
is seen as a moderate voice. In the event of no strong candidate
emerging at the beginning, Scherer is a candidate that differing
factions within the College of Cardinals could comfortably unite
around.

Cardinal oscar rodriguez
MArAdiAgA
Honduras (70)
Cardinal Christoph
SChonborn
Austria (68)
Cardinal gianfranco
rAvASi
Italy (70)
If the cardinals decide that they want to look to Latin America
for the next Pope, it’ll be hard to bypass Cardinal Maradiage.
Latin America is home to half of the world’s Catholics and in
the frontline of the Church’s battle to show that it is on the
side of the world’s poor. He was widely seen as the Latin
American candidate in the conclave that selected Benedict in
2005; however relative youth and inexperience counted against
him. Theologically he is on the centre-left and speaks several
languages. He has spoken out passionately on the need for a
more-balanced world and strongly denounced the excesses of
capitalism. Supporters say he is warm, personably and camerafriendly.
On the face of it, Schonborn should be a shoe-in for the job.
But he has a powerful enemy in the Dean of the College
of Cardinals Angelo Sodano. A close friend of Benedict XVI,
he nonetheless was summoned to the Vatican in 2011 and
rebuked after he publicly criticised Cardinal Sodano over
remarks the latter made which appeared to minimise the
clerical abuse scandal.
Theologically conservative, he has shown himself open to
innovation even suggesting once that the Church should
readdress the issue of priestly celibacy. He is currently
managing a stand-off with some priests in Austria who are
leading a ‘call to disobedience’ calling for a more liberal
Church. If he is to succeed, he will have to overcome a powerful
lobbying campaign by Sodano, viewed by many as a kingmaker.
Considered more of an outsider, Ravasi represents a cultural
wing in the Italian bloc frequently quoting from obscure
northern European works of literature. Under Benedict’s
direction, he has led a dialogue with the secular world and been
at the forefront of the interface between Church and society in
Europe. His relative inexperience (he has never run a diocese)
would certainly count against him for more pastorally-minded
cardinals. However, he is considered a skilled diplomat and a
natural born communicator in the style of Pope John Paul II.
He has urged priests to make their sermons more interesting
and says he relishes the opportunity to help bring more
young people back to the Church. If Europe emerges as a key
consideration he has to be a contender.

Cardinal Angelo
bAgnASCo
Italy (70)
Cardinal luis Antonio
tAgle
Philippines (55)
Cardinal Peter
erdo
Hungary (60)
Bagnasco is arguably one of the most-powerful Churchmen
in Italy serving as president of the Italian bishops’ conference.
This role has placed him at the coalface in the sometimes bitter
debates between Church and State in Italy. He has become a
popular figure in his homeland criticising political corruption
and even denouncing former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi.
The downside to all of this is, of course, that Bagnasco is little
known outside of Italy. He has never worked abroad and is
said to have little real understanding of the problems facing
the global Church. He is seen as a staunch rival of Benedict’s
right-hand man Cardinal Tarcisio Bertone. Many cardinals
blame Bertone for some of the high-profile gaffes of Benedict’s
Pontificate.
At 55, Tagle is barely an adolescent when it comes to Church
years. However, since joining the College of Cardinals late in
2012 he has impressed many. To say that his rise has been
meteoric would be somewhat of an understatement. A bishop
since the age of 44, he leads the Church in one of the most
Catholic countries in the world. He is approachable with a
permanent smile. He gained attention in Rome last year at a
conference on clerical abuse when he spoke forthrightly about
the need for the Church to handle the issue decisively. His youth
would also bring vitality to the job in an age where every action
of the Pope is scrutinised. If the cardinals decide to take a
chance, he’s definitely in with a shout.
Cardinal Erdo has twice been elected the President of
Europe’s bishops – this is a significant factor given that half
the cardinals who will elect the next Pope are Europeans. He
is considered a staunch traditionalist on doctrine, but good
at building consensus among different groups within the
Church. A formidable intellectual, Erdo’s critics say he lacks
the personality and depth of vision to lead a global Church.
However, his supporters point to the fact that he has worked
hard to establish and deepen links between the Church in
Europe and the Church in Africa. Given the fact that Africa is
increasingly the powerhouse of the Church, this is a definite
mark in his favour and means he may well pick up votes from
Africa.

Cardinal Mario
bergoglio
Argentina (76)
Cardinal juan Cipriani
thorne
Peru (69)
Cardinal Malcolm
rAnjith
Sri Lanka (65)
Bergoglio is a member of the Jesuit Order; he has won credit
for his outspoken defence and advocacy for the poor of
Argentina. Supporters say he is a man of deep humility and
compassion who is willing to stand up to the authorities when
he feels it is necessary. According to an unverified account by
an unnamed cardinal, he got ten votes in the first ballot of the
2005 conclave that eventually elected Benedict XVI.
He is a member of several of the powerful Vatican
congregations and, consequently, will be well-known by his
brother cardinals around the world.
The truth about the secretive Opus Dei movement within
the Church is nowhere near as interesting as Dan Browne
depicts in The Da Vinci Code. However, the fact that Thorne
is a member of the organisation will set tongues wagging
immediately. As a former basketball player and engineer,
his route to the heights of the Cardinal Church has been
unconventional to say the least.
As archbishop of Lima, one of Latin America’s biggest dioceses,
he has amplified the Church’s voice in political affairs. He
represents a more conservative thrust in Latin American
Catholicism than any of his colleagues.
Hugely popular among the more traditional and conservative
wing of the Church, Ranjith would allow the College of Cardinals
to choose a man from the developing world with firm Roman
credentials. Known for his personal holiness and administrative
abilities, he is also a trained Vatican diplomat who has served
in many cities around the world. He is a former senior official
in the Vatican’s department responsible for the Church’s
liturgy. He is also a former official in the Church’s department
that manages the foreign missions overseeing a massive
multimillion Euro budget. As such, he was responsible for
sponsoring Church-related projects all over the world, winning
his affection from many cardinals particularly in the developing
world.

Cardinal timothy
dolAn
USA (63)
Cardinal Sean Patrick
o’MAlley
USA (68)
Cardinal george
Pell
Australia (71)
Dolan is known in Church circles to be pugnaciously orthodox
defending the Church against its harshest critics. He has
frequently complained against bias in the media. He has been
seen as a Vatican enforcer and led investigations into Irish
seminaries which are credited with tightening up the regime
to ensure that future priests stick more closely to the Church’s
traditional teaching.
He is genuinely warm and regarded as down to earth, as
comfortable drinking a beer at a barbecue as he is in the
corridors of power in Rome. He is likely to be the victim of
anti-American bias, with some cardinals complaining about his
brash manner. That being said, if the cardinals opt for someone
who will doggedly defend the Church to the death, they couldn’t
have a better candidate.
O’Malley would be the first Pope in over 300 years to have a
beard. He has had a mixed record as Archbishop of Boston; on
the one hand he has steadied the ship following the devastating
clerical abuse revelations that forced the resignation of his
predecessor. At the same time, he has annoyed many Catholics
by the fact that he has closed down parishes and Catholic
schools to fund abuse payouts. He was part of Pope Benedict’s
tea that came to Ireland and recommended that Irish Catholics
adopt a more conservative and rigorous approach to their faith.
He is a monk. The last monk to be elected Pope was Gregory
XVI in 1831. He was ruthless, brutal and opposed gas lighting
and railroads. As a result, the College of Cardinals tend to be a
bit wary of monks.
Pell is a staunch conservative who combines doctrinal
orthodoxy with a down-to-earth Australian sense-of-humour.
He is a stout defender of the Church and has been to the fore in
standing up for Benedict XVI against hostile attacks from some
commentators. Pell serves on the Vatican’s committee that
recommends new bishops and is seen as being responsible for
pushing more conservative men to the fore. Even if he got off
to a good start in the conclave, he is a divisive figure and would
be extremely unlikely to attract votes from some of the more
progressive camps within the College of Cardinals who see Pell
as awkward and stubborn. He has been accused by Australian
politicians of being a climate change denier. He has also ruffled
some feathers by being an outspoken supporter of Australia
becoming a Republic.

Cardinal Wilfred
nAPier
South Africa (71)
Cardinal robert
SArAh
Guinea (67)
Cardinal jaime
ortegA
Cuba (76)
A black South African, Napier is seen as strongly conservative
on doctrine, while not being afraid to speak up when he thinks
criticism of the Vatican is justified. He has criticised authorities
in Rome for not being sufficiently sensitive to the cultural
differences in African Catholicism.
He is a keen Twitter enthusiast and just as likely to be debating
religion on the social networking site as the latest moves in
England’s Premier League. He has studied extensively abroad
and is very well-known in Rome for his advocacy for social
justice. His humble Franciscan spirituality is seen as appealing
at a time when pomp and ceremony are making a comeback in
some quarters in the Church.
In 1988, he blocked a visit to South Africa by Pope John Paul
II on the grounds that it would give legitimacy to the apartheid
government.
Sarah, known for his gentleness, has nonetheless shown
himself to be a strong promoter of Pope Benedict’s vision
for Church-run organisations. As President of the Vatican’s
charitable arm, he has spearheaded a campaign for Catholic
charities to be more explicitly Catholic in their outlook.
He has encouraged Catholic organisations to end co-operation
with groups that promote things like contraception that are
contrary to Catholic teaching – this has won him wide respect
within the Roman Curia. Well-known in Rome and in the
developing world, he is little known in the rest of the Catholic
world.
Ortega, the Archbishop of Havana since 1981, has come a
long way from his humble background as the son of a sugar
mill-worker. He has led the Church along a middle road with
the communist authorities remaining cautiously defiant, while
not wishing to bring ire upon the Catholic community. He is
theologically conservative and has would be a man very much
in the mould of Popes John Paul II and Benedict XVI, at least on
religious questions.
As is common for Latin American prelates, he is acutely aware
of the limitations of free market capitalism. Anticipating a shift
away from communism, he has urged Cubans not to construct
a post-communist future on the basis of hyper-capitalist
principles.

Archbishop diarmuid
MArtin
Dublin (67)
Cardinal dominik
dukA
Czech Rep (69)
Cardinal guiseppe
betori
Italy (66)
It’s almost 600 years since a Pope last retired – it’s more than
600 years since the College of Cardinals chose a Pope who
was not a cardinal. If they go for that option this time, the no. 1
contender has to be the Archbishop of Dublin Diarmuid Martin.
67-year-old Martin has earned himself a distinguished
reputation in the global Church for his handling of clerical
sexual abuse. His forthright and no-nonsense approach has
impressed many. However, some in Rome feel he has been
too harsh in his criticism of other bishops. On the other hand,
many think this approach is necessary. He is a former official
of the Roman Curia and a Vatican diplomat and has travelled
extensively gaining a valuable insight into the global Church.
He is a shrewd administrator and a skilled political operator –
qualities that enrage some while endearing Martin to others.
If they opt for a non-cardinal, it’s hard to think of anyone else
having a better chance.
Cardinal Duka is a hero of Catholicism in central and eastern
Europe having spent time imprisoned for his faith under
communist rule in the 1970s. He is a strong supporter of the
‘new evangelisation’ – the Church’s plan to breathe new life
into the countries of ‘old Europe’ where the Faith is declining.
He is not much spoken of in Rome, and, accordingly, not as
well known among his colleagues as some other cardinals.
Nevertheless, expect a strong push from eastern European
prelates. He is a biblical scholar who ruffled a few feathers in
Rome when he reported called the Latin Mass (loved by many
conservative Catholics) “a Baroque artefact for Baroque times”.
If the cardinals are tempted to go for a centrist who – at least
in theory – can reach out to the various factions within the
Catholic Church, Betori has form. He has tried to heal the
historical divide between the progressive and conservative
camps among Italian laity with various degrees of success.
Betori has written in favour of the Church banning gay men
from the priesthood and described abortion and euthanasia as
the chief enemies of Christianity. However, despite his forthright
views, he is accused by some in the Roman Curia of being
hostile to Benedict XVI. Since Benedict has appointed many
of the men who will elect his successor, this is sure to count
against Betori.

Cardinal donald
Wuerl
USA (72)
The Archbishop of Washington DC has survived in one of the
most political cities in the world, that’s certainly a good training
ground for Vatican City. Wuerl has impressed commentators
all over the world for his willingness to confront the sexual
abuse crisis. If this issue weighs heavily on the cardinals’
minds, Wuerl could emerge as a champion of transparency and
accountability within the Church.
His nationality will be a factor. Many cardinals are nervous
about the prospects of electing a Pope from the world’s last
remaining superpower. This could also have dire consequences
for the relationship between China and the Vatican, one which
Benedict XVI put a lot of energy in to resolving.
Compiled by Michael Kelly
Michael Kelly is Editor of The Irish Catholic, Ireland’s best-selling religious newspaper and a writer and
broadcaster on religious and social affairs.
A former official at Vatican Radio and a member of the Vatican Press Corps in Rome, he covered the death of
Pope John Paul II and the subsequent conclave that elected Joseph Ratzinger as Pope Benedict XVI in 2005. For
Papal election updates on Twitter follow @MichaelKellyIC
richard
dAWkinS
UK (71)
bono
Ireland (52)
And the reSt…
Well known atheist and evolutionary biologist Richard Dawkins
is unsurprisingly a rank outsider in the betting. He has a history
of speaking out against creationism and it’s fair to say that
he would have been burned at the stake had he been born a
couple of hundred years ago. The only thing he has in common
with the Catholic Church is that they were both ridiculed in
a South Park episode and he’d be about as welcome in the
Vatican as a priest at a stag do. He’s 666/1 to get the gig but
you’re more likely to see the Dalai Lama slap on the leathers
and become the leader of the Hell’s Angels.
Considering he thinks he’s God, Bono might not fancy being his
own subordinate while it’s also highly unlikely that someone
who holds himself in such high esteem would be capable of
loving his subjects in the same way. Despite all this, Bono has
pedigree for do-gooding and has been as active as the Church
itself in supporting causes in Africa. As a baptised Catholic he’s
technically eligible for the post but then again so is Mel Gibson,
Arnold Schwarzenegger and Tony Blair… hence the long odds.

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