Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: S&P 500/400/600

Earnings, Revenues, &
Valuation:
S&P 500/400/600
March 4, 2013
Dr. Edward Yardeni
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Joe Abbott
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Table Of Contents Table Of Contents
S&P Earnings 3
S&P 500 Earnings 4
S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles: 2013 5
S&P 400 Earnings 6
S&P 600 Earnings 7
S&P 500/400/600 Indexes & Earnings 8
S&P 500/400/600 P/Es 9
S&P 500 Revenues & Profit Margin 10
S&P 500 Revenues, Earnings, & Margins 11
S&P Blue Angels 12-13
March 4, 2013 / Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: S&P 500/400/600
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Figure 1.
S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE
(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale)
Consensus Analysts Estimates
Annual
52-week forward*
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
S&P 400 MIDCAP OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE
(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale)
Consensus Analysts Estimates
Annual
52-week forward*
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2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
S&P 600 SMALLCAP OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE
(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale)
Consensus Analysts Estimates
Annual
52-week forward*
- S&P Earnings -
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2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
* Time-weighted average of the current year’s and next year’s consensus earnings estimates.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
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Figure 2.
S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE
(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale)
Consensus Analysts Estimates
Annual
52-week forward*
2013 2014 Frwd
Feb 21 111.83 124.81 113.83
Feb 28 112.42 125.36 114.66
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
* Time-weighted average of the current year’s and next year’s consensus earnings estimates.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Figure 3.
- S&P 500 Earnings -
S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY ESTIMATES 2012*
(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly)
Q1
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III IV I II III IV I II III
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2011 2012 2013
* Consensus expected S&P 500 operating earnings per share for each quarter shown.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Q2
2012 By Quarter
as of 02/28/13
Page 4 / March 4, 2013 / Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: S&P 500/400/600
Q3
Q4
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140
130
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110
100
S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE
(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly)
11
14
2/28
13
12
2013 2014 Frwd
Feb 21 111.83 124.81 113.83
Feb 28 112.42 125.36 114.66
Consensus Analysts Estimates
Annual
52-week forward*
90
I II III IV I II III IV I
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2012
* Time-weighted average of current and next years’ consensus earnings estimates.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
2013 2014
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Figure 4.
Figure 5.
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1
- S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles: 2013 -
S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY ESTIMATES 2013*
(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly)
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I II III IV I II III IV I
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2012
* Consensus expected S&P 500 operating earnings per share for each quarter shown.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
2013 2014
Page 5 / March 4, 2013 / Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: S&P 500/400/600
2013 By Quarter
as of 02/28/13
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Feb 21 25.91 27.77 28.62 30.02
Feb 28 25.89 27.81 28.66 30.04
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Figure 6.
S&P 400 MIDCAP OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE*
(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly)
Consensus Analysts Estimates
Annual
52-week forward*
2013 2014 Frwd
Feb 21 69.36 79.15 70.87
Feb 28 69.25 78.97 70.93
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
* Time-weighted average of the current year’s and next year’s consensus earnings estimates.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Figure 7.
- S&P 400 Earnings -
S&P 400 MIDCAP EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY ESTIMATES 2012*
(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly)
Q1
12
2012 By Quarter
as of 02/28/13
13
14
2/28
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III IV I II III IV I II III
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2011 2012 2013
* Consensus expected S&P 400 MidCap operating earnings per share for each quarter shown.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
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Q2
Q3
Q4
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Figure 8.
S&P 600 SMALLCAP OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE
(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly)
Consensus Analysts Estimates
Annual
52-week forward*
2013 2014 Frwd
Feb 21 30.94 36.17 31.74
Feb 28 30.84 36.25 31.78
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
* Time-weighted average of the current year’s and next year’s consensus earnings estimates.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Figure 9.
- S&P 600 Earnings -
S&P 600 SMALLCAP EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY ESTIMATES 2012*
(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly)
Q1
12
13
14
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5.5
III IV I II III IV I II III
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2011 2012 2013
* Consensus expected S&P 600 SmallCap operating earnings per share for each quarter shown.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Q2
2012 By Quarter
as of 02/28/13
Page 7 / March 4, 2013 / Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: S&P 500/400/600
Q3
Q4
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9.0
8.5
8.0
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
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Figure 10.
S&P INDEXES
(daily)
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
Figure 11.
- S&P 500/400/600 Indexes & Earnings -
S&P 500 LargeCap (1525.2)
S&P 400 MidCap (1102.0)
S&P 600 SmallCap (511.7)
S&P 500/400/600 FORWARD EARNINGS PER SHARE
Forward Earnings*
S&P 500 LargeCap (114.7)
S&P 400 MidCap (70.9)
S&P 600 SmallCap (31.8)
3/4
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1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
* 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Time-weighted average of the current year’s and next year’s consensus forecast.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
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Figure 12.
FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P INDEXES*
(weekly)
S&P 500 LargeCap (13.2)
S&P 400 MidCap (15.5)
S&P 600 SmallCap (16.1)
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
* Price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Figure 13.
P/E RATIOS FOR S&P INDEXES*
(daily)
S&P 500 LargeCap (13.3)
S&P 400 MidCap (15.5)
S&P 600 SmallCap (16.1)
- S&P 500/400/600 P/Es -
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
* Price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
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Figure 14.
S&P 500 REVENUES PER SHARE
(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly)
12
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
* Time-weighted average of the current year’s and next year’s consensus revenues estimates.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Figure 15.
- S&P 500 Revenues & Profit Margin -
S&P 500 PROFIT MARGIN
(using analysts’ average earnings and revenues forecasts)
13
14
2/21
Consensus Analysts Estimates
Annual
52-week forward*
yardeni.com
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
* Time-weighted average of the current year’s and next year’s consensus estimates.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Page 10 / March 4, 2013 / Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: S&P 500/400/600
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2013 2014 Frwd
Feb 14 9.9 10.5 10.0
Feb 21 9.9 10.5 10.0
2/21
Consensus Analysts Estimates
Annual
52-week forward*
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Figure 16.
- S&P 500 Revenues, Earnings, & Margins -
S&P 500 REVENUES PER SHARE
(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale)
12
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE
(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale)
13
14
2/21
Consensus Analysts Estimates
Annual
52-week forward*
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
S&P 500 PROFIT MARGIN
(using analysts’ average earnings and sales forecasts, percent)
12
13
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2/28
Consensus Analysts Estimates
Annual
52-week forward*
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
* Time-weighted average of current year’s and next year’s consensus estimates.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor’s.
Page 11 / March 4, 2013 / Earnings, Revenues, & Valuation: S&P 500/400/600
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Consensus Analysts Estimates
Annual
52-week forward*
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Figure 17.
S&P 500, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
* Implied price index calculated using forward earnings times forward P/Es.
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Figure 18.
S&P 400, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION
S&P 400
03/04/13
S&P 400 Blue Angels
Implied Price Index*
02/28/13
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S&P 500
03/04/13
Blue Angels Implied Price Index*
02/28/13
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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
* Implied price index calculated using forward earnings times forward P/Es.
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
- S&P Blue Angels -
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Figure 19.
S&P 600, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION
S&P 600
03/04/13
S&P 600 Blue Angels
Implied Price Index*
02/28/13
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
* Implied price index calculated using forward earnings times forward P/Es.
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
- S&P Blue Angels -
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