A U.S. South China Sea Perspective: Just Over the Horizon

During the protracted Cold War, tensions between the U.S. and Soviet navies resulted in
skirmishes where ships held standoffs and engaged in provocative exercises, submarines
sideswiped each other or collided, shots were fired, mock attacks were held, and in a few cases,
sailors were killed — situations that could have escalated into all-out war. Fortunately the worst
that occurred amounted to just “international incidents”. However, in 1972 the United States and
Soviet Union signed the U.S.-Soviet Incidents at Sea Agreement that provided steps for each
navy to follow so that their respective operations would not interfere with the other and prevent
scenarios that could quickly escalate. 75 Provisions such as requiring surveillance ships to
maintain safe distances, informing vessels when submarines exercise near them, and requiring
aircraft commanders to use caution when approaching other aircraft, helped prevent the Cold
War turning hot. The same provisions may have prevented the EP-3 collision, the harassment of
ocean surveillance ships and the “inadvertent encounter” of a Chinese submarine colliding with
the towed sonar array of the U.S. destroyer as described earlier. The United States attempted to
sign a formal Incident at Sea agreement with China in 2009 but China refused. 76 Vietnam
succeeded in reaching a similar agreement with China last year. Before increasing U.S. presence
in the South China Sea, the United States must convince the Chinese of the strategic need for an
Incident at Sea agreement or else history will continue to repeat itself. Increased U.S. naval
presence in the South China Sea will not likely resolve the South China Sea disputes and could
complicate the diplomatic situation further for ASEAN. Hosting U.S. naval vessels will only
complicate the political bargaining position of a country when conducting bilateral negotiations
with China or, by extension, in multilateral discussions between ASEAN and China.
The U.S. goals that have been set for the South China Sea include: maintaining freedom
of navigation, ensuring the free flow of trade vessels and peacefully resolving the maritime
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