Cormark Securities LNG Conference - Painted Pony Petroleum Ltd.
Cormark Securities LNG Conference - Painted Pony Petroleum Ltd.
Cormark Securities LNG Conference - Painted Pony Petroleum Ltd.
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1<br />
<strong>Cormark</strong> <strong>Securities</strong> <strong>LNG</strong> <strong>Conference</strong><br />
January 11-12, 2012
2<br />
Focus Areas<br />
Corporate Overview<br />
Market capitalization: $770 MM (@ $11.00)<br />
Shares outstanding: 69.7 MM<br />
Options outstanding: 6.1 MM @ avg. price $8.03<br />
Sept. 30, 2011 working capital: $6.7 MM<br />
Dec. 2011 field estimated production: ~5,839 (71% Gas)<br />
NE British Columbia<br />
Targets: Montney, Buckinghorse shale gas<br />
Land: 152,000 net acres (238 net sec) LBC<br />
2012: drilling plan ~ 25 (19.8 net) wells<br />
P+P reserves: 477 bcfge (79 mmboe) G ; NPV10: $621 MM G<br />
Best Estimate of Contingent Resources: 2.1 Tcfge G ;<br />
NPV:10: $2.1 Billion G<br />
SE Saskatchewan<br />
Target : Bakken & Mississippian oil<br />
Land: 81,200 net acres (127 net sec) LS<br />
P+P reserves: 6,107 mboe S ; NPV10: $177 MM<br />
BC<br />
NE BC<br />
Area<br />
AB<br />
SK<br />
SE<br />
Saskatchewan<br />
Area<br />
MM = millions
3<br />
NE British Columbia<br />
MM = millions<br />
Year-round access<br />
BC AB SK<br />
152,000 net acres (238 net sec) LBC<br />
93,300 net acres (146 net sec) LBC of Montney rights<br />
82,800 net acres (129 net sec) LBC of Buckinghorse<br />
shale rights<br />
Sweet gas, high deliverability, liquids rich<br />
(20-60 bbls/mmcf)<br />
Excellent existing infrastructure<br />
Royalty incentive approx $2.2 MM per Montney Hz<br />
well (>1900m TVD & ~ 4000m MD)<br />
Dec. 2011E production: ~4,167 boe/d
4<br />
Montney Test Results Overview<br />
c-A55-F/94-B-16 HZ<br />
U. Montney 5.0 mmcf/d<br />
a-A50-F/94-B-16 HZ<br />
U. Montney 4.8 mmcf/d<br />
d-40-F/94-B-16 HZ<br />
L. Montney 5.8 mmcf/d<br />
d-72-A/94-B-15 HZ<br />
TLM 4.1 mmcf/d<br />
d-A60-C/94-B-16 HZ<br />
U. Montney 6.0 mmcf/d<br />
d-B60-C/94-B-16 HZ<br />
L. Montney 10.4 mmcf/d<br />
b-65-C/94-B-15 HZ<br />
Montney & Doig 1.5 mmcf/d<br />
a-31-B/94-B-15 vert<br />
Doig phos. 4.6 mmcf/d<br />
U. Montney 5.5 mmcf/d<br />
U/M. Montney 2.3 mmcf/d<br />
c-A58-J/94-B-9 HZ<br />
L. Montney 10.9 mmcf/d<br />
a-A10-J/94-B-9 HZ<br />
M. Montney 7.0 mmcf/d<br />
a-B10-J/94-B-9 HZ<br />
L. Montney 9.8 mmcf/d<br />
a-C10-J/94-B-9 HZ<br />
L. Montney 10.8 mmcf/d<br />
Cypress<br />
Blair/ Town<br />
Cameron/<br />
Kobes<br />
Source: Company records and geoSCOUT<br />
Multiple wells HZ<br />
U. Montney 5-10 mmcf/d<br />
L. Montney 8.5 mmcf/d<br />
d-5-K/94-B-16 HZ<br />
U. Montney 6.4 mmcf/d<br />
L. Montney 7.7 mmcf/d<br />
M. Montney 5.8 mmcf/d<br />
a-41-F/94-B-16 HZ<br />
U. Montney 10.5 mmcf/d<br />
L. Montney 3.0 mmcf/d<br />
d-8-F/94-B-16 HZ<br />
U. Montney 8.2 mmcf/d<br />
L. Montney 9.6 mmcf/d<br />
a-A67-A/94-B-16 HZ<br />
U. Montney 16.5 mmcf/d<br />
d-44-C/94-B-16 HZ<br />
L. Montney 24.5 mmcf/d<br />
c-67-J/94-B-9 HZ<br />
L. Montney 7.9 mmcf/d<br />
d-A67-J/94-B-9 HZ<br />
U. Montney 2.4 mmcf/d<br />
d-B67-J/94-B-9 HZ<br />
L. Montney 13 mmcf/d
5<br />
PPY Montney Development Economics<br />
Producing Rate (mcf/d)<br />
12,000<br />
10,000<br />
8,000<br />
6,000<br />
4,000<br />
2,000<br />
0<br />
Lower/Middle Montney Production<br />
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18<br />
Assumptions (Base Case):<br />
Initial well cost: $6.1 MM (drill, complete, equip, tie-in)*<br />
Initial production: 4.5 mmcf/d (IP30d)*<br />
Reserves: 5 Bcf/well R<br />
Liquids: 20 bbls/mmcf<br />
Production Month<br />
GLJ 6 Bcf Type Well<br />
(Lower)<br />
PPY Wells (Lower)<br />
PPY Wells (Middle)<br />
NPV 10%: $7.4 MM**<br />
Rate of return: 56%**<br />
* Initial assumptions held through Phase 1 of development to remain conservative; however, costs and productivity are<br />
expected to improve beyond these assumptions within the first year<br />
** GLJ Oct 2011 pricing NYMEX $4.19 US 2011<br />
***10% Rate of return<br />
MM = millions<br />
Producing Rate (mcf/d)<br />
5,000<br />
4,000<br />
3,000<br />
2,000<br />
1,000<br />
0<br />
Upper Montney PPY Operated Wells<br />
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18<br />
Production Month<br />
GLJ 4.5 Bcf Type<br />
Well<br />
PPY Wells<br />
Breakeven gas price***: $1.50/mmbtu AECO
6<br />
PPY Montney Reserves & Contingent Resources<br />
Land classified as P+P:<br />
~12% U. & L. Montney<br />
~3% M. Montney<br />
Proved reserves:<br />
NPV10 $173.1 MM G<br />
18,132 mboe<br />
(108,794 mmcfge)<br />
19 bbls/mmcf<br />
P+P reserves:<br />
NPV10 $621.1 MM G<br />
79,487 mboe<br />
(476,926 mmcfge)<br />
20 bbls/mmcf<br />
Best estimate of contingent<br />
resources* (excludes P+P reserves):<br />
NPV10 $2.1 billion G<br />
358 mmboe<br />
(2.1 tcfge)<br />
1.9 tcf gas &<br />
40 mmboe liquids<br />
Lower<br />
Middle Upper<br />
*"Contingent Resources" is defined in the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook as those<br />
quantities of petroleum estimated, as of a given date, to be potentially recoverable from known<br />
accumulations using established technology or technology under development, but which are not<br />
currently considered to be commercially recoverable due to one or more contingencies.<br />
Contingencies may include factors such as economic, legal, environmental, political, and regulatory<br />
matters, or a lack of markets. It is also appropriate to classify as contingent resources the estimated<br />
discovered recoverable quantities associated with a project in the early evaluation stage.<br />
Contingent resources are further classified in accordance with the level of certainty associated with<br />
the estimates and may be sub classified based on project maturity and/or characterized by their<br />
economic status. The contingent resources estimates, including the corresponding estimates of<br />
before tax present value estimates, are estimates only and the actual results may be greater than or<br />
less than the estimates provided herein. There is no certainty that it will be commercially viable or<br />
technically feasible to produce any portion of the resources.
7<br />
Blair/Town & Cameron/Kobes Montney Operations<br />
Spectra<br />
T-North<br />
700 MMcf/d spare capacity<br />
U. Montney HZ<br />
8.2 mmcf/d<br />
L. Montney HZ IP<br />
9.6 mmcf/d<br />
U.Montney HZ<br />
6.0 mmcf/d IP<br />
L. Montney HZ<br />
10.4 mmcf/d IP<br />
AltaGas<br />
Plant<br />
CNRL Plant<br />
TLM Daiber<br />
Facility<br />
L. Montney c-A58-J HZ<br />
10.9 mmcf/d<br />
U. Montney HZ IP<br />
10.5 mmcf/d<br />
L. Montney HZ IP<br />
3.0 mmcf/d<br />
L. Montney d-44-C HZ<br />
24.5 mmcf/d<br />
L. Montney d-A44-C HZ<br />
Drilled<br />
M. Montney d-B44-C HZ<br />
Drilling<br />
Gundy<br />
Compressor<br />
L. Montney HZ<br />
10.8 mmcf/d<br />
Kobes Facility<br />
Blair/Town Montney Operations<br />
64,500 net acres (101 net sec) LBC of Montney rights<br />
100% operated with avg. ~ 93% WI<br />
2012 drilling plan: ~16 (16.0 net) wells<br />
AltaGas facility:<br />
Recently expanded to 32 mmcf/d<br />
Expansion by ~Q2 2012 to est. 80 mmcf/d<br />
Cameron/Kobes Montney Operations<br />
Joint venture ongoing – avg WI 27%<br />
11,100 net acres (17 net sec)<br />
2012 drilling plan: ~8 (2.8 net) wells<br />
L. Montney discovery well (PPY 50%) tested over<br />
24.5 mmcf/d @ 2,700 PSI
8<br />
PPY Montney 5 Year Development Scenario<br />
Assumptions of:<br />
IP30d 4.5 mmcf/d & 5 Bcf<br />
recoverable/well R<br />
Drilling 330 net wells:<br />
250 wells at Blair<br />
80 wells at Cameron<br />
Production results (exit 2016):<br />
466 mmcf/d gas<br />
9,800 bbls/d liquids<br />
525 mmcfe/d (87,500 boe/d)<br />
Land base
9<br />
Buckinghorse Shale Overview<br />
Regionally extensive sweet gas resource play<br />
82,800 net acres (129 net sections) LBC<br />
BC Government estimated gas-in-place of 60<br />
Bcf / section per 100m thickness*<br />
800m thick in the area – 16-32 vertical wells per<br />
section<br />
Shallow drilling depths 400m (1,300 ft) TVD<br />
Low drilling costs est. < $0.5MM<br />
Currently 3 existing producing wells in<br />
Blair/Town area<br />
2 (1.0 net) PPY wells drilled, 1 well fracing<br />
planned for ~H1 2012<br />
Over pressured (average 0.5 psi/ft) & highly<br />
permeable compared to other shale plays<br />
*Source: BC Ministry of Energy, Mines & <strong>Petroleum</strong> Resources, Oil & Gas Division<br />
“BC Oil and Gas 2009 – Yours to Explore”. Management is unable to confirm that the estimate<br />
was prepared by a qualified reserves evaluator or auditor or in accordance with the COGE<br />
Handbook.
10<br />
Footnotes<br />
S – Sproule Report effective June 30, 2011 using Sproule price forecast dated July 1, 2011<br />
G – GLJ Report effective June 30, 2011 using GLJ price forecast dated June 30, 2011<br />
SG – Consolidated from Sproule Report & GLJ Report effective June 30, 2011 using GLJ<br />
price forecast dated June 30, 2011 and Sproule price forecast dated July 1, 2011<br />
R – Internal Company estimate prepared by a qualified reserve evaluator<br />
LS – SK land at December 22, 2011<br />
LBC – BC land at December 22, 2011
11<br />
Disclaimer<br />
This presentation contains a summary of management’s assessment of results and should be read in conjunction with the Annual Information Form and the<br />
Consolidated Financial Statements and related Management’s Discussion and Analysis for the year ended December 31, 2010 and the Condensed Consolidated<br />
Financial Statements and related Management’s Discussion and Analysis for the period ended September 30, 2011 of the Company, as filed on SEDAR. This<br />
presentation contains certain forward-looking statements, which include assumptions with respect to (i) drilling success; (ii) production; (iii) future capital<br />
expenditures; and (iv) cash flow. The reader is cautioned that assumptions used in the preparation of such information may prove to be incorrect.<br />
Certain information regarding the Company set forth in this document, including management’s assessment of the Company’s future plans and operations, the<br />
planning and development of certain prospects, production estimates, reserve estimates, undeveloped land holdings and values, capital expenditures and the<br />
timing thereof (including the number, location and costs of planned wells), facility expansion plans, the total future capital required to bring undeveloped<br />
proved and probable reserves onto production, and expected production growth may constitute forward-looking statements under applicable securities laws<br />
and necessarily involve substantial known and unknown risks and uncertainties. These forward-looking statements are subject to numerous risks and<br />
uncertainties, certain of which are beyond the Company’s control, including without limitation, risks associated with oil and gas exploration, development,<br />
exploitation, production, marketing and transportation, loss of markets, the impact of general economic conditions, industry conditions, volatility of commodity<br />
prices, currency fluctuations, environmental risks, competition, the lack of availability of qualified personnel or management, inability to obtain drilling rigs or<br />
other services, capital expenditure costs, including drilling, completion and facility costs, unexpected decline rates in wells, wells not performing as expected,<br />
stock market volatility, delays resulting from or inability to obtain required regulatory approvals and ability to access sufficient capital from internal and<br />
external sources, the impact of general economic conditions in Canada, the United States and overseas, industry conditions, changes in laws and regulations<br />
(including the adoption of new environmental laws and regulations) and changes in how they are interpreted and enforced, increased competition, fluctuations<br />
in foreign exchange or interest rates, stock market volatility and market valuations of companies with respect to announced transactions and the final<br />
valuations thereof, and obtaining required approvals of regulatory authorities. Readers are cautioned that the foregoing list of factors is not exhaustive. The<br />
Company’s actual results, performance or achievement could differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, these forward-looking statements and,<br />
accordingly, no assurance can be given that any of the events anticipated by the forward-looking statements will transpire or occur, or if any of them do so,<br />
what benefits, including the amount of proceeds, that the Company will derive therefrom. Readers are cautioned that the foregoing list of factors is not<br />
exhaustive. All subsequent forward-looking statements, whether written or oral, attributable to the Company or persons acting on its behalf are expressly<br />
qualified in their entirety by these cautionary statements. Additional information of these and other factors that could affect the Company’s operations and<br />
financial results are included in reports on file with Canadian securities regulatory authorities and may be accessed through the SEDAR website<br />
(www.sedar.com) or the Company’s website (www.paintedpony.ca).<br />
The forward-looking statements contained in this document are made as of the date on the front page and the Company assumes no obligation to update<br />
publicly or to revise any of the included forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as may be<br />
required by applicable securities laws.
12<br />
Disclaimer<br />
Special Note Regarding Disclosure of Reserves or Resources<br />
“Contingent Resources” is defined in the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook as those quantities of petroleum estimated, as of a given date, to be<br />
potentially recoverable from know accumulations using established technology under development, but which are not currently considered to be commercially<br />
recoverable due to one or more contingencies. Contingencies may include factors such as economic, legal, environmental, political, and regulatory matters, or<br />
a lack of markets. It is also appropriate to classify as contingent resources the estimated discovered recoverable quantities associated with a project in the<br />
early evaluation stage. Contingent resources are further classified in accordance with the level of certainty associated with the estimates and may be sub<br />
classified based on project maturity and/or characterized by their economic status.<br />
The contingent resources estimates, including the corresponding estimates of before tax present value estimates, are estimates only and the actual results may<br />
be greater than or less than the estimates provided herein. There is no certainty that it will be commercially viable or technically feasible to produce any<br />
portion of the resources.<br />
BOEs may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A BOE conversion ratio of 6 Mcf: 1 bbl is based on an energy equivalency conversion method<br />
primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead.<br />
Mcfges may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A Mcfge conversion ratio of 1 bbl: 6 Mcf is based on an energy equivalency conversion method<br />
primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead.<br />
Netbacks are calculated on a per unit basis as oil, gas and natural gas liquids revenues less royalties and transportation and operating costs.
13<br />
Corporate Overview<br />
Legal Burstall Winger LLP<br />
Auditor KPMG LLP<br />
Evaluation Engineers Sproule & Associates<br />
GLJ <strong>Petroleum</strong> Consultants <strong>Ltd</strong>.<br />
Bank National Bank of Canada<br />
Corporate Office<br />
300, 602 – 12 th Avenue SW, Calgary, AB T2R 1J3<br />
Toll Free Investor 1 (866) 975-0440<br />
Tel (403) 475-0440 Fax (403) 238-1487<br />
Email: info@paintedpony.ca<br />
www.paintedpony.ca
14<br />
www.paintedpony.ca