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Cormark Securities LNG Conference - Painted Pony Petroleum Ltd.

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1<br />

<strong>Cormark</strong> <strong>Securities</strong> <strong>LNG</strong> <strong>Conference</strong><br />

January 11-12, 2012


2<br />

Focus Areas<br />

Corporate Overview<br />

Market capitalization: $770 MM (@ $11.00)<br />

Shares outstanding: 69.7 MM<br />

Options outstanding: 6.1 MM @ avg. price $8.03<br />

Sept. 30, 2011 working capital: $6.7 MM<br />

Dec. 2011 field estimated production: ~5,839 (71% Gas)<br />

NE British Columbia<br />

Targets: Montney, Buckinghorse shale gas<br />

Land: 152,000 net acres (238 net sec) LBC<br />

2012: drilling plan ~ 25 (19.8 net) wells<br />

P+P reserves: 477 bcfge (79 mmboe) G ; NPV10: $621 MM G<br />

Best Estimate of Contingent Resources: 2.1 Tcfge G ;<br />

NPV:10: $2.1 Billion G<br />

SE Saskatchewan<br />

Target : Bakken & Mississippian oil<br />

Land: 81,200 net acres (127 net sec) LS<br />

P+P reserves: 6,107 mboe S ; NPV10: $177 MM<br />

BC<br />

NE BC<br />

Area<br />

AB<br />

SK<br />

SE<br />

Saskatchewan<br />

Area<br />

MM = millions


3<br />

NE British Columbia<br />

MM = millions<br />

Year-round access<br />

BC AB SK<br />

152,000 net acres (238 net sec) LBC<br />

93,300 net acres (146 net sec) LBC of Montney rights<br />

82,800 net acres (129 net sec) LBC of Buckinghorse<br />

shale rights<br />

Sweet gas, high deliverability, liquids rich<br />

(20-60 bbls/mmcf)<br />

Excellent existing infrastructure<br />

Royalty incentive approx $2.2 MM per Montney Hz<br />

well (>1900m TVD & ~ 4000m MD)<br />

Dec. 2011E production: ~4,167 boe/d


4<br />

Montney Test Results Overview<br />

c-A55-F/94-B-16 HZ<br />

U. Montney 5.0 mmcf/d<br />

a-A50-F/94-B-16 HZ<br />

U. Montney 4.8 mmcf/d<br />

d-40-F/94-B-16 HZ<br />

L. Montney 5.8 mmcf/d<br />

d-72-A/94-B-15 HZ<br />

TLM 4.1 mmcf/d<br />

d-A60-C/94-B-16 HZ<br />

U. Montney 6.0 mmcf/d<br />

d-B60-C/94-B-16 HZ<br />

L. Montney 10.4 mmcf/d<br />

b-65-C/94-B-15 HZ<br />

Montney & Doig 1.5 mmcf/d<br />

a-31-B/94-B-15 vert<br />

Doig phos. 4.6 mmcf/d<br />

U. Montney 5.5 mmcf/d<br />

U/M. Montney 2.3 mmcf/d<br />

c-A58-J/94-B-9 HZ<br />

L. Montney 10.9 mmcf/d<br />

a-A10-J/94-B-9 HZ<br />

M. Montney 7.0 mmcf/d<br />

a-B10-J/94-B-9 HZ<br />

L. Montney 9.8 mmcf/d<br />

a-C10-J/94-B-9 HZ<br />

L. Montney 10.8 mmcf/d<br />

Cypress<br />

Blair/ Town<br />

Cameron/<br />

Kobes<br />

Source: Company records and geoSCOUT<br />

Multiple wells HZ<br />

U. Montney 5-10 mmcf/d<br />

L. Montney 8.5 mmcf/d<br />

d-5-K/94-B-16 HZ<br />

U. Montney 6.4 mmcf/d<br />

L. Montney 7.7 mmcf/d<br />

M. Montney 5.8 mmcf/d<br />

a-41-F/94-B-16 HZ<br />

U. Montney 10.5 mmcf/d<br />

L. Montney 3.0 mmcf/d<br />

d-8-F/94-B-16 HZ<br />

U. Montney 8.2 mmcf/d<br />

L. Montney 9.6 mmcf/d<br />

a-A67-A/94-B-16 HZ<br />

U. Montney 16.5 mmcf/d<br />

d-44-C/94-B-16 HZ<br />

L. Montney 24.5 mmcf/d<br />

c-67-J/94-B-9 HZ<br />

L. Montney 7.9 mmcf/d<br />

d-A67-J/94-B-9 HZ<br />

U. Montney 2.4 mmcf/d<br />

d-B67-J/94-B-9 HZ<br />

L. Montney 13 mmcf/d


5<br />

PPY Montney Development Economics<br />

Producing Rate (mcf/d)<br />

12,000<br />

10,000<br />

8,000<br />

6,000<br />

4,000<br />

2,000<br />

0<br />

Lower/Middle Montney Production<br />

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18<br />

Assumptions (Base Case):<br />

Initial well cost: $6.1 MM (drill, complete, equip, tie-in)*<br />

Initial production: 4.5 mmcf/d (IP30d)*<br />

Reserves: 5 Bcf/well R<br />

Liquids: 20 bbls/mmcf<br />

Production Month<br />

GLJ 6 Bcf Type Well<br />

(Lower)<br />

PPY Wells (Lower)<br />

PPY Wells (Middle)<br />

NPV 10%: $7.4 MM**<br />

Rate of return: 56%**<br />

* Initial assumptions held through Phase 1 of development to remain conservative; however, costs and productivity are<br />

expected to improve beyond these assumptions within the first year<br />

** GLJ Oct 2011 pricing NYMEX $4.19 US 2011<br />

***10% Rate of return<br />

MM = millions<br />

Producing Rate (mcf/d)<br />

5,000<br />

4,000<br />

3,000<br />

2,000<br />

1,000<br />

0<br />

Upper Montney PPY Operated Wells<br />

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18<br />

Production Month<br />

GLJ 4.5 Bcf Type<br />

Well<br />

PPY Wells<br />

Breakeven gas price***: $1.50/mmbtu AECO


6<br />

PPY Montney Reserves & Contingent Resources<br />

Land classified as P+P:<br />

~12% U. & L. Montney<br />

~3% M. Montney<br />

Proved reserves:<br />

NPV10 $173.1 MM G<br />

18,132 mboe<br />

(108,794 mmcfge)<br />

19 bbls/mmcf<br />

P+P reserves:<br />

NPV10 $621.1 MM G<br />

79,487 mboe<br />

(476,926 mmcfge)<br />

20 bbls/mmcf<br />

Best estimate of contingent<br />

resources* (excludes P+P reserves):<br />

NPV10 $2.1 billion G<br />

358 mmboe<br />

(2.1 tcfge)<br />

1.9 tcf gas &<br />

40 mmboe liquids<br />

Lower<br />

Middle Upper<br />

*"Contingent Resources" is defined in the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook as those<br />

quantities of petroleum estimated, as of a given date, to be potentially recoverable from known<br />

accumulations using established technology or technology under development, but which are not<br />

currently considered to be commercially recoverable due to one or more contingencies.<br />

Contingencies may include factors such as economic, legal, environmental, political, and regulatory<br />

matters, or a lack of markets. It is also appropriate to classify as contingent resources the estimated<br />

discovered recoverable quantities associated with a project in the early evaluation stage.<br />

Contingent resources are further classified in accordance with the level of certainty associated with<br />

the estimates and may be sub classified based on project maturity and/or characterized by their<br />

economic status. The contingent resources estimates, including the corresponding estimates of<br />

before tax present value estimates, are estimates only and the actual results may be greater than or<br />

less than the estimates provided herein. There is no certainty that it will be commercially viable or<br />

technically feasible to produce any portion of the resources.


7<br />

Blair/Town & Cameron/Kobes Montney Operations<br />

Spectra<br />

T-North<br />

700 MMcf/d spare capacity<br />

U. Montney HZ<br />

8.2 mmcf/d<br />

L. Montney HZ IP<br />

9.6 mmcf/d<br />

U.Montney HZ<br />

6.0 mmcf/d IP<br />

L. Montney HZ<br />

10.4 mmcf/d IP<br />

AltaGas<br />

Plant<br />

CNRL Plant<br />

TLM Daiber<br />

Facility<br />

L. Montney c-A58-J HZ<br />

10.9 mmcf/d<br />

U. Montney HZ IP<br />

10.5 mmcf/d<br />

L. Montney HZ IP<br />

3.0 mmcf/d<br />

L. Montney d-44-C HZ<br />

24.5 mmcf/d<br />

L. Montney d-A44-C HZ<br />

Drilled<br />

M. Montney d-B44-C HZ<br />

Drilling<br />

Gundy<br />

Compressor<br />

L. Montney HZ<br />

10.8 mmcf/d<br />

Kobes Facility<br />

Blair/Town Montney Operations<br />

64,500 net acres (101 net sec) LBC of Montney rights<br />

100% operated with avg. ~ 93% WI<br />

2012 drilling plan: ~16 (16.0 net) wells<br />

AltaGas facility:<br />

Recently expanded to 32 mmcf/d<br />

Expansion by ~Q2 2012 to est. 80 mmcf/d<br />

Cameron/Kobes Montney Operations<br />

Joint venture ongoing – avg WI 27%<br />

11,100 net acres (17 net sec)<br />

2012 drilling plan: ~8 (2.8 net) wells<br />

L. Montney discovery well (PPY 50%) tested over<br />

24.5 mmcf/d @ 2,700 PSI


8<br />

PPY Montney 5 Year Development Scenario<br />

Assumptions of:<br />

IP30d 4.5 mmcf/d & 5 Bcf<br />

recoverable/well R<br />

Drilling 330 net wells:<br />

250 wells at Blair<br />

80 wells at Cameron<br />

Production results (exit 2016):<br />

466 mmcf/d gas<br />

9,800 bbls/d liquids<br />

525 mmcfe/d (87,500 boe/d)<br />

Land base


9<br />

Buckinghorse Shale Overview<br />

Regionally extensive sweet gas resource play<br />

82,800 net acres (129 net sections) LBC<br />

BC Government estimated gas-in-place of 60<br />

Bcf / section per 100m thickness*<br />

800m thick in the area – 16-32 vertical wells per<br />

section<br />

Shallow drilling depths 400m (1,300 ft) TVD<br />

Low drilling costs est. < $0.5MM<br />

Currently 3 existing producing wells in<br />

Blair/Town area<br />

2 (1.0 net) PPY wells drilled, 1 well fracing<br />

planned for ~H1 2012<br />

Over pressured (average 0.5 psi/ft) & highly<br />

permeable compared to other shale plays<br />

*Source: BC Ministry of Energy, Mines & <strong>Petroleum</strong> Resources, Oil & Gas Division<br />

“BC Oil and Gas 2009 – Yours to Explore”. Management is unable to confirm that the estimate<br />

was prepared by a qualified reserves evaluator or auditor or in accordance with the COGE<br />

Handbook.


10<br />

Footnotes<br />

S – Sproule Report effective June 30, 2011 using Sproule price forecast dated July 1, 2011<br />

G – GLJ Report effective June 30, 2011 using GLJ price forecast dated June 30, 2011<br />

SG – Consolidated from Sproule Report & GLJ Report effective June 30, 2011 using GLJ<br />

price forecast dated June 30, 2011 and Sproule price forecast dated July 1, 2011<br />

R – Internal Company estimate prepared by a qualified reserve evaluator<br />

LS – SK land at December 22, 2011<br />

LBC – BC land at December 22, 2011


11<br />

Disclaimer<br />

This presentation contains a summary of management’s assessment of results and should be read in conjunction with the Annual Information Form and the<br />

Consolidated Financial Statements and related Management’s Discussion and Analysis for the year ended December 31, 2010 and the Condensed Consolidated<br />

Financial Statements and related Management’s Discussion and Analysis for the period ended September 30, 2011 of the Company, as filed on SEDAR. This<br />

presentation contains certain forward-looking statements, which include assumptions with respect to (i) drilling success; (ii) production; (iii) future capital<br />

expenditures; and (iv) cash flow. The reader is cautioned that assumptions used in the preparation of such information may prove to be incorrect.<br />

Certain information regarding the Company set forth in this document, including management’s assessment of the Company’s future plans and operations, the<br />

planning and development of certain prospects, production estimates, reserve estimates, undeveloped land holdings and values, capital expenditures and the<br />

timing thereof (including the number, location and costs of planned wells), facility expansion plans, the total future capital required to bring undeveloped<br />

proved and probable reserves onto production, and expected production growth may constitute forward-looking statements under applicable securities laws<br />

and necessarily involve substantial known and unknown risks and uncertainties. These forward-looking statements are subject to numerous risks and<br />

uncertainties, certain of which are beyond the Company’s control, including without limitation, risks associated with oil and gas exploration, development,<br />

exploitation, production, marketing and transportation, loss of markets, the impact of general economic conditions, industry conditions, volatility of commodity<br />

prices, currency fluctuations, environmental risks, competition, the lack of availability of qualified personnel or management, inability to obtain drilling rigs or<br />

other services, capital expenditure costs, including drilling, completion and facility costs, unexpected decline rates in wells, wells not performing as expected,<br />

stock market volatility, delays resulting from or inability to obtain required regulatory approvals and ability to access sufficient capital from internal and<br />

external sources, the impact of general economic conditions in Canada, the United States and overseas, industry conditions, changes in laws and regulations<br />

(including the adoption of new environmental laws and regulations) and changes in how they are interpreted and enforced, increased competition, fluctuations<br />

in foreign exchange or interest rates, stock market volatility and market valuations of companies with respect to announced transactions and the final<br />

valuations thereof, and obtaining required approvals of regulatory authorities. Readers are cautioned that the foregoing list of factors is not exhaustive. The<br />

Company’s actual results, performance or achievement could differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, these forward-looking statements and,<br />

accordingly, no assurance can be given that any of the events anticipated by the forward-looking statements will transpire or occur, or if any of them do so,<br />

what benefits, including the amount of proceeds, that the Company will derive therefrom. Readers are cautioned that the foregoing list of factors is not<br />

exhaustive. All subsequent forward-looking statements, whether written or oral, attributable to the Company or persons acting on its behalf are expressly<br />

qualified in their entirety by these cautionary statements. Additional information of these and other factors that could affect the Company’s operations and<br />

financial results are included in reports on file with Canadian securities regulatory authorities and may be accessed through the SEDAR website<br />

(www.sedar.com) or the Company’s website (www.paintedpony.ca).<br />

The forward-looking statements contained in this document are made as of the date on the front page and the Company assumes no obligation to update<br />

publicly or to revise any of the included forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as may be<br />

required by applicable securities laws.


12<br />

Disclaimer<br />

Special Note Regarding Disclosure of Reserves or Resources<br />

“Contingent Resources” is defined in the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook as those quantities of petroleum estimated, as of a given date, to be<br />

potentially recoverable from know accumulations using established technology under development, but which are not currently considered to be commercially<br />

recoverable due to one or more contingencies. Contingencies may include factors such as economic, legal, environmental, political, and regulatory matters, or<br />

a lack of markets. It is also appropriate to classify as contingent resources the estimated discovered recoverable quantities associated with a project in the<br />

early evaluation stage. Contingent resources are further classified in accordance with the level of certainty associated with the estimates and may be sub<br />

classified based on project maturity and/or characterized by their economic status.<br />

The contingent resources estimates, including the corresponding estimates of before tax present value estimates, are estimates only and the actual results may<br />

be greater than or less than the estimates provided herein. There is no certainty that it will be commercially viable or technically feasible to produce any<br />

portion of the resources.<br />

BOEs may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A BOE conversion ratio of 6 Mcf: 1 bbl is based on an energy equivalency conversion method<br />

primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead.<br />

Mcfges may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A Mcfge conversion ratio of 1 bbl: 6 Mcf is based on an energy equivalency conversion method<br />

primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead.<br />

Netbacks are calculated on a per unit basis as oil, gas and natural gas liquids revenues less royalties and transportation and operating costs.


13<br />

Corporate Overview<br />

Legal Burstall Winger LLP<br />

Auditor KPMG LLP<br />

Evaluation Engineers Sproule & Associates<br />

GLJ <strong>Petroleum</strong> Consultants <strong>Ltd</strong>.<br />

Bank National Bank of Canada<br />

Corporate Office<br />

300, 602 – 12 th Avenue SW, Calgary, AB T2R 1J3<br />

Toll Free Investor 1 (866) 975-0440<br />

Tel (403) 475-0440 Fax (403) 238-1487<br />

Email: info@paintedpony.ca<br />

www.paintedpony.ca


14<br />

www.paintedpony.ca

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