PIDA - Inception Report - African Development Bank

African Development Bank 

Group AFRICAN UNION NEPAD 

INCEPTION REPORT 

Study on Programme for Infrastructure Development 

in Africa 

PIDA 

Ref: ONRI.1/PIDA/2010/04 

in consortium with 

www.wordle.net 

July 2010

TABLE OF CONTENTS 

TABLE OF CONTENTS .......................................................... 1 

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS........................................................... 1 

LIST OF ACRONYMS............................................................. 2 

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................... 6 

1 BACKGROUND ........................................................................... 1 

1.1 The inception process .................................................................... 1 

1.2 The structure of the inception report.................................................. 2 

1.3 Definitions.................................................................................. 2 

1.3.1 Regional economic community (REC) and economic integration....................2 

1.3.2 Regionalism ...................................................................................................4 

1.3.3 Regional integration .......................................................................................4 

1.3.4 Regional cooperation .....................................................................................5 

1.3.5 Subsidiarity ....................................................................................................5 

1.3.6 Continental /regional projects.........................................................................5 

2 HORIZONTAL SECTION ................................................................. 8 

2.1 Introduction................................................................................ 8 

2.2 Objectives of the study .................................................................. 8 

2.2.1 Global objective..............................................................................................8 

2.2.2 Specific objectives..........................................................................................8 

2.3 Outputs ..................................................................................... 9 

2.3.1 Output 1 Planning and monitoring reports ....................................................10 

2.3.2 Output 2: Phase 1 reports ............................................................................11 

2.3.3 Output 3: Phase 2 reports ............................................................................13 

2.3.4 Output 4 : Phase III Report...........................................................................14 

2.3.5 Output 5: other .............................................................................................15 

2.3.6 Recommendations on the time line ..............................................................15 

2.4 Specific methodological points......................................................... 15 

2.4.1 Analytical framework, causal analysis ..........................................................15 

2.4.2 Screening of policies and strategies.............................................................18 

2.4.3 Screening of projects....................................................................................19

2.4.4 Outlook for the future....................................................................................20 

2.5 Cross cutting aspects .................................................................... 25 

2.5.1 Financing and PPP ......................................................................................25 

2.5.2 Environment and climate change .................................................................25 

2.6 Detailed description of horizontal tasks .............................................. 26 

2.6.1 Preparation of the PIDA Study workshops....................................................26 

2.6.2 Phase III.......................................................................................................26 

2.7 Other horizontal aspects ................................................................ 27 

2.7.1 Data collection..............................................................................................27 

2.7.1 Resource Planning.......................................................................................28 

2.7.2 Quality control ..............................................................................................30 

2.7.3 Geographical Information System ................................................................31 

2.7.4 Communications ..........................................................................................31 

2.7.5 Risk assessment..........................................................................................31 

ENERGY SECTION…………………………………………………………………………………..41 

TRANSPORT SECTION…………………………………………………………………………….77 

TWRM SECTION…………………………………………………………………………………….123 

ICT SECTION………………………………………………………………………………………….169 

ANNEXES........................................................................ 219

Study on Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA) 


ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 

This inception report describes the methodology and work plan of the study for the 

formulation of the Program for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA Study). 

The study started on May 3 rd 2010 and the inception phase on May 23 rd 2010. The 

PIDA Consulting Team (PCT), under the direction of Jean François Bauer, has 

prepared this inception report. It has been submitted to the African Development 

Bank (AfDB) at the end of a six weeks inception phase (i.e. July 2 nd 2010). The report 

will be discussed during a kick-off workshop scheduled in Addis Ababa for the week 

of July 26 th 2010. 

The study is under a contract between AfDB and the consulting consortium led by 

SOFRECO (France) and including ASCON Africa (South Africa), SOFRECOM 

(France), Nathan (USA), SYSTRA (France), CabIRA (Ivory Coast), and MWH (UK), 

referred to in the report as “the Consultant”. 

The inception mission has taken place in excellent conditions. The Consultant was 

given the heartiest of welcome by the AfDB management and staff. The visit to the 

World Bank’s AICD team in Washington in parallel with the AfDB mission, provided 

an exhaustive introduction to African infrastructure. The meeting with the Panel of 

Experts (POE) and the AfDB’s PIDA Management Team (PMT) on June 17 th 2010 

was instrumental in framing the study issues. The Consultant would like to express 

their most sincere thanks to all those who have provided their precious time and 

advice during this part of the work. 

Led Consortium : SOFRECO –MWH – NATHAN – SOFRECOM – SYSTRA – ASCON - CABIRA 

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LIST OF ACRONYMS 

ACOWAS/CEDEAO Economic Community of West African States 

AEO Africa Economic Outlook 

AfDB African Development Bank 

AICD African Infrastructure Country Diagnostic 

AMCOW African Ministers' Council on Water 

ANBO African Network of Basin Organizations 

AU African Union 

AUC African Union Commission 

AWF African Water Facility 

AWV 2025 Africa Water Vision for 2025 

CAB Central African Backbone () 

CAPNET Capacity Building for Integrated Water Resources Management 

CAPP Central African Power Pool 

CEDARE Center for Environment and Development for the Arab Region 

CEDARE Centre for Environment and Development for the Arab Region 

CEN-SAD Community of Sahel-Saharan States 

CFA Cooperative Framework Agreement 

CFA Cooperation Framework Agreements 

CICOS Commission Internationale du bassin du Congo-Oubangui-Sangha 

CICOS Commission Internationale du Bassin du Congo 

CM Common Market 

COMELEC Maghreb Committee for Electricity 

COMESA Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa 

CR Criticality Ratio 

CU Customs Union 

EABN East African Broadband Network (EABN) 

EAC East African Community 

EAPP East African Power Pool 

EASSy Eastern African Submarine Cable System 

ECA Economic Commission for Africa 

ECCAS/CEMAC Economic Community of Central African States 

EIA Energy Information Administration 


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ENCOM Eastern Nile Council of Ministers 

ENSAP Eastern Nile Subsidiary Action Program 

ENTRO Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office – Addis Ababa 

ESA Environmental and Social Assessments 

ESMAP Energy Sector Management Assistance Programme 

EU European Union 

FAO Food and Agriculture Organisation 

FTA Free Trade Agreement 

GDI Gross Domestic Investment 

GEF Global Environmental Fund 

GHG Greenhouse Gas 

GIS Geographic Information System 

GRDC Global Runoff Data Centre 

GWP Global Water Partnership 

HFO Heavy Fuel Oil 

HIPPSA Harmonization of ICT Policies in Sub-Saharan Africa 

HSGIC Heads of State and Government Implementation Committee 

ICAO International Civil Aviation Organization 

ICDs Inland Container Depots 

ICID International Commission on Irrigation and Drainage 

ICOLD International Commission of Large Dams 

ICOR Incremental Capital Output Ration 

ICT Information and Communication Technology 

IEA International Energy Agency 

IFAD International Fund For Agricultural Development 

IFPRI International Food Policy Research Institute 

IGAD Intergovernmental Authority on Development 

IGO Inter Governmental Organizations 

IHA International Hydropower Association 

IMF International Monetary Fund 

INBO International Network of Basin Organizations 

INX Internet Node Exchange 

IPPs Integrated Power Plant System 

IPTRID International Program for Technology and Research in Irrigation and 

Drainage 

ISP Internet Service Provider 

ITU International Telecommunications Union 


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IWMI International Water Management Institute 

IWRM International Water Resources Management 

L/RBOs Lake/River Basin Organisations 

LCBC Lake Chad Basin Commission 

LMNN Lake Malawi-Niassa-Nyasa 

LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas 

LVBC Lake Victoria Basin Commission 

MCSLV Maritime Communications for Safety on Lake Victoria 

MDGs Millennium Development Goals 

MLTSF Medium and Long Term Strategic Framework 

MM Man Months 

NBA Niger Basin Authority 

NBI Nile Basin Initiative 

NELSAP Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary Action Programme 

NEPAD New Partnership for Africa’s Development 

Nile-COM Nile Basin Council of Ministers 

NRA National Regulatory Authorities 

OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 

OKACOM Okavango Basin Commission 

OMVG Organization pour la Mise en Valeur du fleuve Gambie 

OMVS Organisation pour la Mise en Valeur du Fleuve Sénégal 

ORASECOM Orange-Senqu River Commission 

OSS Observatoire du Sahara et du Sahel 

PAP Priority Action Plan 

PCT PIDA Consulting Team 

PDCT-AC Transport Consensual Master plan in Central Africa 

PIDA Programme for infrastructure Development in Africa 

PMT PIDA Management team 

POE Panel of Experts 

PPIAF Public-Private Infrastructure Advisory Facility 

PPP Public Private Partnership 

RBO River Basin Organization 

RECs Regional Economic Communities 

RWSSI Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Initiative 

SADC Southern Africa Development Community 

SANE Countries (South Africa, Algeria, Nigeria and Egypt) 

SAPP South African Power Pool 


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SAR Search and Rescue systems 

SATA Sub-Saharan Africa Basic Network-Terrestrial Link 

STAP Short Term Action Plan 

SWOT Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats 

TAH Trans-African Highway 

TEAMS The East African Marine System 

ToR Terms of Reference 

TWR Transboundary Water Resources 

TWRM Transboundary Water Resources Management 

UAT Union Africain des Télécommunications 

UMA Arab Maghreb Union 

UN United Nations 

UNCTAD United Nations Conference on Trade and Development 

UNECA United Nations Economic Commission for Africa 

UNEP United Nations Environment Program 

UPDEA Union of Producer and Distributors of Electricity in Africa 

USGS United States Geological Survey 

VBA Volta Basin Authority 

WAPP West African Power Pool 

WB World Bank 

WBS Wok Breakdown structure 

WCD World Commission on Dams 

WPP Water Partnership Program 

WRM Water Resources Management 

WSS water supply and sanitation 

WWF World Wildlife Fund 

ZAMCOM Zambezi Watercourse Commission 


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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 

The Inception Phase of the PIDA Study took place over the six weeks form May 20 to 

July 2 nd 2010 in Tunis. 

The PIDA Study focuses on regional/continental projects that foster regional and 

continental integration and participation of Africa in world trade (PIDA projects). It is 

implemented through 3 phases: 1- diagnosis, 2- planning 3- consensus building in 

the four sectors of Energy, Transport, ICT, and Transboundary Water Resources 

(TWR). 

The cross-sector aspects of the study are the screening of policies and projects, 

the establishment of the outlook for the future, and the formulation of institutional 

recommendations and processes necessary to enable the effective implementation 

of the PIDA projects. 

The screening of policies, projects and institutional framework relies on the analysis 

of limiting factors. It seeks to explain why some policies and institutional frameworks 

have been more successful than others in support of regional infrastructure projects. 

In this regard the consultant will analyze the consistency of (or lack of) political 

commitment, ownership and alignment along the decision chain from policies to 

projects' implementation and make recommendations to be included in the 

infrastructure development program. 

The outlook for the future will rely on the analysis of past trends for Africa for the 

period 1980-2010 and be prepared through the use of an economic simulation tool, 

which will consider two scenarios for the period 2010-2040, (i) a “business as usual” 

scenario reproducing the performance of Africa over the 1980-2010 period with an 

average rate of GDP growth of about 3%, (ii) a "stretch" scenario with an annual rate 

of growth of 6% comparable to that achieved by India and Malaysia over the 30 past 

years. The output of the simulation is the macro economic framework, which will be 

used in the sector models for estimating the demand for infrastructure under the 

different scenarios. 

The Consultant’s work on the sectors brings to the forefront the priority of high return 

and short gestation period “soft” investments in terms of capacity building of regional 

institutions and of facilitation of trade in energy, ICT and transport. 

In the Transboundary Water Resources (TWR) Sector, the PIDA Study will focus 

on cooperative mobilization and valorization of transboundary water resources for 

increased water security, food production, hydropower generation, navigation, and 

flood control. Since approximately 80% of Africa’s freshwater resources are of a 

transboundary nature, it is obvious that equitable, peaceful, and sustainable water 

resources development is not possible without effective regional cooperation at basin 

level, in a shared benefits approach. 

There are 60 international river basins in Africa, but many of them have no 

coordination mechanism, while many of the existing Lake or River Basin 

Organization (L/RBOs) are still too weak, with limited mandates and resources. The 


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study will start with seven major basins selected by the African Ministers Council on 

Water (AMCOW) in 2004 in large consultation with the stakeholders: Senegal and 

Niger basins in West Africa, Congo and Lake Chad basins in Central Africa, Nile 

basin in Eastern Africa and Okavango and Zambezi basins in Southern Africa. Other 

basins are not at all excluded in a later stage. 

The study will consider investments in physical infrastructure, or “hard” investments, 

as well as investments in the enabling environment for regional cooperation, or “soft” 

investments. The “hard” investments are the hydraulic infrastructures having 

significant transboundary impacts, while the “soft” investments may include the 

creation of new or the strengthening of existing L/RBOs, the strengthening of the 

information and knowledge base, planning capacities and modelling tools, 

communication and public awareness, and the monitoring capacities. 

The Consultant will promote the concept of “integrated investment programs” at basin 

level, with a long-term perspective, focusing on tangible outputs in a stepwise 

approach and with due regard to the protection of the ecosystems. Several L/RBOs 

are currently in the process of preparing integrated development plans. Remaining in 

line with the bottom-up and participatory principles of Integrated Water Resources 

Management (IWRM) and with the subsidiarity principle, planning of new 

infrastructures will not shortcut the existing planning processes, but rather propose to 

strengthen them wherever necessary. The analysis of investment needs and 

priorities will combine a demand-driven approach focusing on future food, water, and 

energy demands, with a supply-drive approach focusing on the irrigation and 

hydropower development potentials, taking into account the sensitivity to increasing 

water scarcity in the scope of population growth and climate variability and change. 

The PIDA TWR investment program is seen as a continuation of the NEPAD STAP 

and will build on the experience gained and actions undertaken by the African Water 

Facility (AWF). It will help the AWF to move to larger infrastructure investments to 

ensure water security in Africa and achieve the African Water Vision: “An Africa 

where there is an equitable and sustainable use and management of water resources 

for poverty alleviation, socioeconomic development, regional cooperation, and the 

environment”. 

In the Transport Sector, the PIDA Study emphasis that Transport infrastructure 

development is a key instrument for African countries to facilitate trade, strengthen 

economic relations, create larger markets, increase peoples’ mobility and enhance 

the overall socio-economic development while reducing poverty. 

Transport services on the African continent are inefficient as demonstrated by high 

operating costs, poor operating practices, poor routine maintenance of transport 

infrastructure, etc. In addition, Africa has 15 landlocked countries and their 

transportation needs to the seaports are not adequately provided for in the current 

continental and regional transport/logistics system. 

Cumbersome administrative procedures, poor management practices and poor 

facilities within the transit countries are detrimental to the development of the 

international trade of the landlocked countries and to regional integration. 

The PIDA study will develop a common vision for Africa for the next 10, 20 and 30 

years. The transport team will conduct the necessary studies and analyzes (analysis 

of transport policies, review of recently completed infrastructure projects, analysis of 

on-going or under preparation projects, establishment of outlooks for the sector etc) 

to ensure that the transport infrastructures and the relevant transport services are 


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correctly developed and improved to satisfy the transport demand resulting from 

projected economic developments. 

In particular, the PIDA study will analyze the driving role of transport infrastructures 

and transport services in economic growth and make sure that the proposed 

investments and soft accompanying measures are included in the PIDA program. 

The transport team will also ensure that the increase of the traffic demand resulting 

from the macro economic growth can be satisfied and that the transport sector does 

not become a bottleneck to the reaching of the vision. 

The PIDA study will provide strategic leadership by mobilizing political action and 

financial resources to secure completion of needed reforms and facilitate preparation 

and implementation of sector development programmes and projects by RECS and 

regional institutions. The study will find ways and means to enlarge the participation 

of the private sector both in operation of transport services and the financing of 

infrastructure through concession, BOT, maintenance and management contract etc; 

in particular for ports and air transport 

The Consultant considers that the implementation of soft programmes for the 

removal of regulatory and institutional bottleneck should be a priority for the transport 

sector in Africa; these actions need to be complemented by the development of 

intermodal facilities and the reduction in the number of the missing links. 

During the first phase of the study, particular attention will be gpaid to the projects 

included in the STAP of NEPAD that have not, as yet, been completed. For these 

projects the Consultant will: 

Give details on their level of completion 

Try to explain the reasons for delays in their implementation and 

Make recommendation on the best ways to move these projects forward 

For ICT, the PIDA study will be based on the fact that ICT is an essential tool not 

only for economic development of Africa but mainly for the African population. The 

huge and fast development of the mobile market in 5 years is the tree that hides the 

forest. Essentially based on radio technology, the main part of the infrastructures are 

not able to handle the Broadband with efficiency. 

A brief of ICT sector can be summarizing by 3 sentences: 

Africa is an island in the middle of the ICT worldwide sea and African countries 

are islands on the continent 

The usage of the ICT services is beyond reach for the most fragile population. 

Broadband access price correspond to more than 100 per cent of their monthly 

GNI per capita (ITU 2009 Africa report) 

The existing development is based essentially on a short term vision and just a 

little of the total investment amount is made on long-lasting infrastructures able to 

handle the Broadband challenge for the future. 

ICT sector is a dynamic sector where tomorrow is different of yesterday and requires 

a specific attention to secure the future (long term) and facilitate the usage of ICT 

services by the majority of the population. 


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Until 2009, Africa was an island in the middle of Internet sea; the landing of different 

Submarine cables in 2010 with more to come in the short term change the 

environment of the Africa in term of worldwide connectivity; From a kilobits world, 

Africa moves to Terabits one. This fact will connect some seaside countries to the 

rest of the world; the case of the African landlocked countries is a question which 

shall be solved if Africa doesn’t want to create an African digital divide between 

seaside countries and landlocked countries. Interconnect the different countries 

between them will maximise the usage of broadband and therefore will support 

regional integration. 

The ICT sector of the PIDA study shall focus mainly on how to solve this double 

problematic: 

Reduce the price of the ICT usage as soon as possible to increase the economic 

development 

Implement long lasting infrastructures able to offer broadband access and usage 

to the future generation. 

The mains issues to be tackled by the ICT sector of PIDA Study will be: 

Develop ICT governance and regulatory environments to reduce the end-user 

usage price and to create an enable environment to long lasting infrastructure 

investment as well as establish a efficient policy and regulatory environment (Soft) 

Develop long lasting Broadband infrastructures around Africa and between the 

African countries by weaving cobwebs around Africa (Continental) and between 

African countries (Regional), which are the first step of an efficient Broadband 

infrastructure development required to offer broadband access without 

discrimination to the African population. (Hard) 

The main features of Africa’s energy sector are an important resource base, 

including sizeable oil and gas reserves as well as a large untapped hydro electric 

potential, accompanied by low access to modern energy, with the resultant reliance 

on traditional fuels and widespread environmental damage. 

The challenges are particularly daunting in the power sector, which experiences 

shortages and frequent outages that affect negatively economic development. The 

poor financial condition of the utilities is a threat to macro economic stability and 

thwarts investment in the sector and in the economy at large. The combination of 

emergency investment, lack of financial discipline and poorly managed operations 

leads to high prices for electricity and other fuels. 

The response to these challenges will come from regional market integration and 

large regional projects to increase access and lower costs while restoring sector 

credit worthiness. 

The PIDA Study will take into account the climate change concerns by analyzing low 

emissions and clean energy scenarios. 

The future of the sector will be built around large-scale investments, many regional 

and financed in a significant manner by the private sector. 


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The “soft” component of the energy work will focus on regulations supportive regional 

projects as well as on enhancing the countries’ credit rating and the sector’s 

creditworthiness as a prerequisite to national or regional investment. 


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1 BACKGROUND 

This inception report is the first deliverable due under the Contract for the PIDA 

Study between the AfDB and the SOFRECO led consortium. 

The report comprises five sections: 

One horizontal section, geared to responding to the General Terms of Reference; 

Four sector sections responding to the sector specific TOR. 

The Consultant has followed a common template for the sector sections. 

Nevertheless each sector section has its own characteristics. The sector sections 

are self-contained and will be mainly of interest to sector specialists. 

1.1 The inception process 

The contract for the PIDA Study was signed on April 20 th 2010. The project started 

on May 3 rd 2010 and the inception phase on May 23 rd 2010. The study will be carried 

out over 18 months. 

The inception team included Jean François Bauer (Program Leader), Ananda 

Covindassamy (Energy Leader), Bernard Chatelin (Transport Leader), Olivier Cogels 

(Transboundary Water Resources Leader), Claude Jacquelot (ICT Leader), Etienne 

Soltesz (Institutionnal Development Economist), Alain Ballereau (Transport Strategy 

Policy Expert), Peter Cook (Transport Projection Specialist), Idir Kendel (Energy 

Program Expert), Hichame Selmaoui (Deputy Project Director). 

A consultation with the Panel of Experts and the PMT took place in Tunis on June 

17 th 2010. 

As indicated in the Terms of Reference (TOR), the inception report will be presented 

to the stakeholders at a kick-off workshop to be held in Addis Ababa on July 29-30, 

2010. The remarks and recommendations emerging from the kick-off workshop will 

be taken into account for the finalization of the inception report. 

The steps of the inception stage have included: 

Meetings with World Bank staff (in parallel with a AfDB mission) on the African 

Infrastructure Country Diagnosis (AICD) data and study, the regional sector 

strategies; 

Analysis of the general and sector TOR and attached documents (PIDA study 

concept note and TOR of the Panel of Experts); 

Team discussions; 

Preparation of issues papers and presentations (principally on scope and 

methodological aspects) and their discussion with the Panel of Experts (POE) and 

PIDA Management Team (PMT); 

Contacts with some stakeholders; 


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Identification and detailed description of the tasks to be performed; 

Delivery of draft inception report 

1.2 The structure of the inception report 

This inception report has two main sections: 

Horizontal aspects: 

This section will present the material pertaining to: 

Definitions 

The outputs of the study; 

Proposed methodology for the three aspects specifically requested in the TOR: (i) 

evaluation of policies, regulatory and institutional frameworks; (ii) evaluation of 

regional and continental projects and (iii) preparing the outlook for the future, 

Potential constraints affecting the infrastructure development program: financing, 

environment and climate change; 

Detailed task description for Phase III; and 

Resource use for the study in general including aggregate task and manpower 

planning. 

Sector aspects 

This section will describe for each sector the scope, the methodology and data 

needs, the detailed task description, and the work plan. As per the terms of reference 

the sector sections deal with Phase I and Phase II activities. 

1.3 Definitions 

In accordance with section 2.3.3 of the general terms of reference the following 

section defines some key terms. 

1.3.1 Regional economic community (REC) and economic integration 

The 1991 Abuja Treaty establishing the African Economic Community proposed in 

the article 28 the creation of RECs as the basis for African integration on a 34 years 

timetable for regional and then continental integration by 2028. The 6 stages of 

economic integration are as follows as follows: 

Basic Elements of the Six Stages of Economic Integration 

(As foreseen in the Abuja Treaty) 

Stage 1 Consolidation Strengthening existing RECs 

Stage 2 Free Trade 

Agreement 

Zero tariffs between member countries and reduced 

non-tariff barriers 


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(FTA) 

Stage 3 Customs 

Union (CU) 

Stage 4 Common 

Market (CM) 

Stage 5 Economic 

Union (EU) 

FTA + common external tariff 

CU extended to the Continent + free movement of capital 

and labour, some policy harmonization 

CM + common economic policies and institutions (may 

include monetary union, and social and fiscal common 

regulatory) 

Stage 6 Federalism EU + monetary union, and political, social and fiscal common 

regulatory. 

The AUC recognises eight RECs, each established under a separate treaty. They 

are: 

The Arab Maghreb Union (UMA) 

The Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) 

The Community of Sahel-Saharan States (CEN-SAD) 

The East African Community (EAC) 

The Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS / CEMAC) 

The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS / CEDEAO) 

The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) 

The Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) 

The table below summarises the situation of each REC towards economic 

integration. 


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current stage of integration 

achievement 

REC Creation Countries Objective Free Trade area Customs Union 

Region AMU 1989 Algeria, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Tunisia Full economic no progress no progress 

North Africa Rabat 

union 

CEN-SAD 

Tripoli 

Region CEN-SAD 

West Africa Tripoli 

Region 

Central 

Africa 

Southern 

Africa 

East 

Africa 

ECOWAS / 

CEDEAO 

Abuja 

ECCAS / 

CEEAC 

Libreville 

SADC 

Gaborone 

COMESA 

Lusaka 

COMESA 

Lusaka 

EAC 

Arusha 

IGAD 

Djibouti 

1999 

1999 

1975 Benin, Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Cote 

d’Ivoire, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea- 

Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, 

Senegal, Sierra Leone and Togo 

1983 Angola, Burundi, CAR, Cameroon, Chad, 

DRC, Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, 

Gabon, Sao Tome and Principe, Rwanda 

1992 Angola, Bostwana, DRC, Lesotho, Malawi, 

Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, 

Swaziland, Tanzania, Zambia, Zimbabwe 

1993 

1993 

Bénin, Burkina, RCA, Tchad, Djibouti, Egypt, 

Erytrea, Gambia, Libya, Mali, Maroc, Niger, 

Nigeria, Sénégal, Somalia, Sudan, Togo, Tunisia 

Angola, Burundi, Comores, RDC, Djibouti, Egypt, 

Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, 

Mauritius, Namibia, Rwanda, Seychelles, Sudan, 

Swaziland, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe 

1967 Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, (+ Burundi, Rwanda in 

2009) 

1986 Djibouti, Erytrée, Ethiopie, Kenya, Somalie, 

Soudan, Uganda 

Free Trade Area 

and Integration in 

some sectors 

Full economic 

union 

Full economic 

union 

Full economic 

union 

Full economic 

union 

Full economic 

union 

Source : UN-ECA Assessing Regional integration in Africa IV, 2010, page 32 

established in progress 

Created and in 

force 


in progress no progress 

Proposed for 

2010 

Launched Proposed for 

2010 

Common market established launched 

established In full force 

in progress no progress 

The other Inter Governmental Organizations (IGO) (such as CEMAC, UEMOA or 

IOC), if needed, will be dealt with in the Study through the REC, which encompasses 

them (in the example respectively ECCAS, ECOWAS and COMESA). 

The Power Pools are specialised agencies of the relevant REC and key bodies for 

the power component of the Energy sector. The relations between the Power Pools 

and the REC are described in more details in the energy section. 

The Lake/River Basin Organisations (L/RBO) are the relevant bodies as concerns 

the Transboundary Water Resources (TWR) sector. The relations between REC and 

RBO and their impact on the study are dealt with in more details in the TWR section. 

1.3.2 Regionalism 

Regionalism refers to a common sense of identity and purpose within a geographical 

area and is supported by specific institutions promoting certain activities among 

several nations. In that sense it differs from multilateralism (where there is no 

common identity and purpose) and from nationalism, which refers to a single nation. 

The European Coal and Steel Community established in 1950 is an example of 

institution promoting regionalism in Europe and a forerunner of the European Union. 

1.3.3 Regional integration 

The Constitutive Act establishing the African Union (AU) sees regional integration as 

one of the foundations of African unity. This concept is also elaborated on in the 

Lagos Plan of Action and the Abuja Treaty, which describe the specific economic, 

political and institutional mechanisms for attaining this ideal. The adoption of the New 

Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) provides an overall development 

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framework for the continent, which sets regional integration as one of its core 

objectives. 1 

The objectives of regional integration range from economic to political although it has 

become a political economy initiative where increased trade is seen as the means to 

achieve broader socio-political and development objectives. The focus is on 

removing barriers to trade in the region, increasing the free movement of people, 

labour, goods, and capital across national borders, reducing the possibility of regional 

armed conflict, and adopting cohesive regional stances on policy issues, such as the 

environment, climate change and migration. 

1.3.4 Regional cooperation 

Regional cooperation among countries to complete specific tasks - such as regional 

infrastructure development or cross-border natural resource sharing - generates 

some of the benefits of regional integration. Such cooperation can be viewed as a 

limited version of regional integration and may occur independently or in the context 

of a formal regional integration arrangement. 2 

1.3.5 Subsidiarity 

Subsidiarity is the concept that a central authority should have a subsidiary function, 

performing only those tasks, which cannot be performed effectively at a more 

immediate or local level. It is best known as a fundamental principle of European 

Union. According to this principle, the EU may only act where action of individual 

countries is insufficient (Treaty of Maastricht 1992)3. 

The principle of subsidiarity is intended to ensure that decisions are taken as closely 

as possible to the citizen and that constant checks are made as to whether action at 

Community level is justified in the light of the options available at the national or local 

level. Specifically, it is the principle whereby the Union does not take action (except 

in the areas which fall within its exclusive competence) unless it is more effective 

than action taken at national or local level. It is closely linked to the principles of 

proportionality and necessity, which require that any action by the Union should not 

go beyond what is necessary to achieve the objectives of the Treaty. 

In the context of the PIDA Study, the concept of subsidiarity will be useful when 

determining the proper institutional level at which activities take place: for instance 

not at the REC level if they can better be handled at the country level, or not at the 

AUC level if they are best handled at the REC level. 

1.3.6 Continental /regional projects 

The concept of continental and regional projects can be approached from 

geographical and institutional angles. 

From a geographical point of view, continental projects are very large; best justified 

on a continental basis and have a continental footprint in terms of market impact. 

Ideally, continental institutions (such as the AUC or NEPAD Secretariat) would 

1 In Assessing Regional Integration 1, ECA 

2 In Assessing Regional Integration 1, ECA 

3 In Oxford English Dictionary 


5



sponsor/impulse the continental projects and play a leading role during the project 

cycle. The benefits of the project are spread across a large number of countries (and 

RECs). The Trans African Highways or the fibre optic cable around Africa belong to 

this category, 

Using the same analysis, regional projects would have regional footprints (at least 

two countries) with a significant regional or transboundary impact and are best 

justifies in a regional or basin-wide context. A REC or a L/RBO would 

sponsor/promote/coordinate the project. 

Such projects strengthen the integration and development of not only the REC and/or 

L/RBO but also of their member countries. The benefits are spread across member 

countries of the REC or of the L/RBO. The links and networks are strengthened, the 

availability of infrastructure services is increased, trade and the exchange of capital, 

goods, services and labour across the REC are expanded promoting sustainable 

activities and growth. 

The following projects would be considered regional under these assumptions: 

highways included in a REC master plan; hydraulic structures (dams and diversions) 

with transboundary impacts, international hydro-power facilities, trans-national 

electricity grids and ICT networks. 

National projects 

Projects are national when the decision making process, the financing, 

implementation and the operation are carried out by one country. 

A substantial portion of national infrastructure investments has regional 

characteristics: for instance ports or national networks that once they are linked, 

articulated and coordinated across national boundaries create regional networks. 

Nevertheless they are not regional to the extent that the decision making process for 

each component is purely national. 

PIDA study projects 

The PIDA Study will analyse regional/continental projects that foster regional and 

continental integration and participation of Africa in world trade (PIDA projects). 

These will include “soft” and “hard” projects. “Soft” projects concern strengthening 

the enabling environment, institutional capacity, policy and regulatory frameworks for 

investment in regional and continental infrastructure. “Hard” projects include 

investments in civil works and equipment. Each sector infrastructure investment 

program will include both types of investments. 

The different types of sector specific “hard” are explained in section 3 and 

summarised below: 

Water: 

Investments in physical infrastructure including major dams, irrigation schemes, 

flood control structures, intra and inter-basin diversion schemes; 


6



Energy: 

Project requiring multi country cooperation for 

Input: shared river basin for instance or trans country pipeline; or 

Facility: transmission line or pipeline crossing at least one border, plant 

straddling borders; or 

Outputs shared among several countries 

Large projects, which may affect indirectly regional energy exchanges and trade 

Transport: 

Projects in the second transport decade for Africa; 

Projects in the NEPAD STAP 

Projects belonging to the Trans African Highways and to the REC’s priority 

networks. 

ICT: 

Projects that connect Africa to the rest of the world; and 

Projects that interconnect African countries. 


7



2 HORIZONTAL SECTION 

2.1 Introduction 

The contents of the inception report are described as follows in the TOR (general 

TOR section 4.2.4): 

A detailed description of tasks to be undertaken, the schedule of activities and 

resources allocated to each task; 

A detailed identification of data necessary for the analytical work as well as the 

data collection strategy; 

The proposed analytical frame work to be used in the analysis of current policies 

and strategies, the formulation of sector policies and strategies for this study; 

The proposed methodology for the analysis of on-going and pipeline programs, 

and in particular the definition of stages (milestones) defining their development 

stage; 

The first outline of the methodology to be used for projections, as well as trends 

and factors underpinning the future sector outlook; 

The decisions to be made by the client and the proposed associated schedule; 

A proposed calendar for field visits, meetings and workshops; 

The proposed structure for key reports; and 

Any other issue to be brought to the attention of the client in order to facilitate, 

monitor and control the Consultant’s work.” 

The Consultant agrees that the contents proposed for the Inception Report are 

relevant in as much as they mandate the full development of the analytical framework 

for the analysis of projects and policies but only the first outline of the methodology 

for the projections. The full methodology for the projections will be provided in the 

methodological brief to be submitted eleven weeks from beginning of work. 

2.2 Objectives of the study 

2.2.1 Global objective 

The global objective of the study is to contribute to the development of infrastructure 

in support of greater regional/continental integration in order to foster poverty 

reduction in Africa. 

2.2.2 Specific objectives 

Establish a strategic framework for the development of regional and continental 

infrastructure in four sectors (Energy, Transport, ICT, and Transboundary Water 

Resources), based on a long-term, social, and economic development vision, 

strategic objectives, and sector policies; 

Establish an infrastructure development programme articulated around priorities 

and over the short, medium, and long-term horizons; 


8



Prepare an implementation strategy and processes including, in particular, the 

improvement of institutional arrangements (such as regulatory and administrative 

processes); a Priority Action Plan; and financing options including measures for 

promoting, attracting and sustaining private sector participation in infrastructure 

development. 

In the Consultant’s view the three specific objectives are relevant. It is noted that 

they emphasize the “soft” components of infrastructure development with “hard” 

infrastructure included only in one objective. 

2.3 Outputs 

The PIDA study is a planning and programming study at continental level: 

Phase 1 is the diagnosis and in depth analysis phase including: 

Review and situation analysis; 

Establishment of an outlook for the future (corresponding to a needs 

assessment and the definition of targets); 

Preparation of an outline program for the development of regional and 

continental infrastructure. 

Phase 2 is the planning phase leading to the formulation of drafts of a strategic 

framework, infrastructure development program and implementation strategy. 

This Phase starts with the preparation and holding of sector workshops aimed at 

bringing a consensus on the sector targets emerging from the outlook for the 

future and on the strategy and plan of action for reaching them. 

Phase 3 is the consensus-building phase including the preparation of the final 

versions of the strategic framework, infrastructure development program and 

implementation strategy. 

In accordance with the terms of reference the outputs of the PIDA Study will be as 

follows: 

Output 1 Planning and monitoring reports 

Output 1.1:Inception report 

Output 1.2: Monthly reports 

Output 2 Phase I: 

Output 2.1: Methodological brief on the establishment of the outlook for the future; 

Output 2.2: Proceedings of the validation workshop to record the consensus on 

the methodology to establish the outlook for the future globally and for the various 

sectors; 

Output 2.3: Phase I report: diagnosis of the existing situation, sector outlook for 

the future, analysis of choices and challenges and outline of the infrastructure 

development programme. 


9



Output 3: Phase II 

Output 3.1: briefs for the preparation of sector workshops aimed at a participatory 

strategic planning exercise resulting in a consensual strategy and action plan; 

Output 3.2: proceedings of the four sector workshops recording the consensus on 

the strategy and the action plan as a basis for the planning and programming 

exercise; 

Output 3.3: Phase II report: draft strategic framework draft infrastructure 

development programme and implementation strategy; 

Output 4: Phase III: 

Output 4.1: Proceeds of the high-level meetings 

Output 4.2: Final report (strategic framework, infrastructure development 

programme, Implementation strategy and processes) 

Output 4.3: Synthesis of the final report 

Output 5: other output 

Output 5.1: transfer of data 

Output 5.2: working documents 

2.3.1 Output 1 Planning and monitoring reports 

Output 1.1 Inception report. 

This report is the inception report due six weeks after start of the study. 

Output 1.2 Monthly report 

The Consultant proposes that a monthly report (of about 5 pages) be submitted to 

the NEPAD Division Manager of the NEPAD Regional Integration and Trade 

Department, in replacement of the quarterly report mentioned in the TDR. The 

rationale for this proposed change is that it will allow closer monitoring by the Client 

of the study’s progress and more regular interaction between the parties. 

The monthly report will concisely present 

Activities performed during the reporting period; 

Team members involved in the activities of the reporting period; 

Problems encountered; 

Estimate of the progress achieved so far. 

The first monthly report will be submitted on August 20th, 2010. 


10



2.3.2 Output 2: Phase 1 reports 

Output 2.1: methodological brief on the establishment of the outlook for the 

future 

The object of the brief is to present the Consultants’ approach to establishing the 

outlook for the future of the various sectors. It will provide the basis for the 

projections of demand for infrastructure services over the 2010 - 2040 period with a 

focus on the years 2020, 2030 and 20404. 

The brief will include two parts. 

Part 1 

The first part will provide a methodology for developing the macro economic vision 

over the period 2010-2040 taking into account population growth projections and 

economic prospects integrating available data from official sources (such as UAC, 

UNECA, ADB, WB, IMF), the views of the stakeholders and the POE to be discussed 

during the kick-off meeting and summarized afterwards. 

Part 2 

This second part will define and justify the methodology proposed for projecting the 

demand for services in each sector on the basis of the macro economic vision. 

Output 2.2: Proceedings of the validation workshop 

This output will record the conclusions of the validation workshop on the 

methodologies to establish the macro economic vision and outlook for the sectors. 

Output 2.3 Phase 1 report: Diagnosis and in depth analysis 

The scope of Phase 1 includes three major tasks for each sector: 

Review and situation analysis including: 

The review and evaluation of continental and regional policies, institutional and 

regulatory frameworks 

The review and evaluation of regional infrastructure; 

The review of existing infrastructure; 

The review of infrastructure under execution or preparation, 

The detailed analysis of selected projects including STAP flagship projects; 

Establishment of an outlook for the future and analysis of challenges and choices; 

Preparation of an outline program for the development of continental and regional 

infrastructure. 

4 The justification for suggesting changing the planning horizon from the one in the TOR (2015, 

2020 and 2040) during discussions with the POE and the PMT in Tunis on June 17 th 2010 is given 

in section 2.4.2. 


11



The Phase 1 report will be structured in a cover volume and four sector volumes. 

Cross-sector section 

In addition to an executive summary and the statement of the macro economic 

vision, this report will provide an analysis of the overall constraints affecting the 

supply of infrastructure services in support of regional/continental integration and 

include sections on: 

Institutional capacity at the Continental (AUC and NEPAD), regional (REC. 

L/RBO) and national levels to: 

Devise targets and strategies, plan and program infrastructure projects in 

support of regional integration in a coherent manner; 

Implement projects including finance and supervise the feasibility and 

safeguard studies, mobilize financing for the project, acquire land, procure 

works, goods and services, supervise implementation; 

Operate and maintain completed infrastructure. 

Availability of specific financing for PIDA projects from: 

Domestic sources (internal to Africa such as REC or budget resources, utilities’ 

internal cash generation, capital markets); 

International sources (such as ODA, capital markets, PPP); 

Environmental and climate change aspects; and 

Social consideration linked to land acquisition. 

Each sector volume will include two parts: 

Sector Section 

Part 1 Analytical section 

The first part will build on the methodological tools agreed at the validation workshop 

(outlook for the future) as well as those proposed during the inception phase 

(screening of policies and projects). This part will comprise write-ups on: 

The finalization of the outlook for the future including projections (targets) for the 

horizons 2020, 2030 and 2040 based on the methodological brief validated earlier 

at the validation workshop; 

The analysis of the challenges facing the sector in Africa and of the options 

available to meet them; the options considered will cover the range from “soft” 

projects to “hard” projects. 

The compilation of regional and continental policies, institutional and regulatory 

frameworks (relevant to PIDA projects), the selection of the relevant ones, their 

assessment. 

The analysis of the regional infrastructure projects (understood as PIDA projects) 

including: 

Existing infrastructure and 

Projects under implementation and in the pipeline in order to assess their 

performance and contribution to achieving regional and continental policy 


12



objectives. The projects included would be both “Hard” as well as “soft” 

projects. 

A detailed analysis of at least five projects per sector, including STAP flagship 

projects. 

Part 2: Outline infrastructure development program 

This section will present a preliminary outline of the infrastructure development 

program resulting form the above analysis including: 

Update on the progress of the NEPAD STAP projects; 

Identifying any “low hanging” project, which could be implemented in the short 

term, in particular in terms of “soft” programs; 

2.3.3 Output 3: Phase 2 reports 

Output 3.1 Briefs for the sector workshop 

The briefs will be issues focused documents including: 

Description of the outlook of the future and the needs indicating the potential 

impact of constraints such as financing, institutional capacity; 

Challenges and choices; 

Options (various strategies to reach the targets) and multi criteria analysis 

The sector workshops will be the venue for consulting with each sector’s 

stakeholders at the political (decision making), technical and operational levels on the 

findings of Phase 1 (needs, targets), define a strategy and an action plan to be later 

articulated in programs and projects. The brief will serve to shape the debate. 

Output 3.2 Proceedings of the sector workshops 

This output will record the strategic consensus (strategies and action plans to reach 

the targets) as well as possible disagreements emerging from the sector workshop. 

The consensus will be the basis of the planning and programming work of Phase 2. 

Output 3.3 Phase 2 report: draft final report 

The Phase 2 report is the final draft of the PIDA study containing the three outputs 

required by the terms of reference. It will include four sector reports and a draft 

executive summary. 

Draft executive summary: 

This will be a 15-20 pages document presenting the draft of Study’s main findings (on 

the three specific objectives) as well as recommendations on how to ensure the 

sustainability of PIDA as a major contributor to regional integration in Africa with a 

place in the lending plans of the major financiers and a firm institutional grounding. 

It will also pay attention to overarching aspects related to: 


13



Recommended policy proposals; 

Potential for financing PIDA projects; 

Institutional capacity for implementing PIDA projects. 

Sector reports 

Each sector report will include three sections corresponding to the specific objectives 

of the study as they shape up after the analytical work of Phase 1 and the exchanges 

with the stakeholders in the sector workshops. 

Draft strategic framework including prioritized proposals in the sector to amend 

regional and continental policies, regulations and institutional arrangements; 

Draft infrastructure development program including: 

Prioritized list of PIDA projects, soft and hard, with costs and timing, 

recommended implementation and operating arrangements over the three time 

horizons (2020, 2030, and 2040); 

The proposed first Priority Action Plan (PAP) including: 

Projects committed, financing legally in place- 

Programs ready to go, feasibility completed positively, EIA and mitigation plan 

available, social and institutional aspects dealt with; 

New short gestation projects (mainly soft projects to build institutional capacity 

and prepare the next PAP and possibly hard investments for the ICT sector) 

A detailed analysis of selected projects including STAP flagship projects 

Draft implementation arrangements for the sector including sector specific 

proposals for: 

Facilitating the financing of projects; 

Strengthening the institutional arrangements for: 

Project preparation, implementation and operation; 

Replenishing the PAP. 

2.3.4 Output 4 : Phase III Report 

Output 4.1: Proceedings of the high-level meetings 

These meetings (with the RECs and other stakeholders) aim at internalizing the 

recommendations of the draft final report at the highest levels. The proceedings of 

these meetings will be recorded and integrated in the final report 

Output 4.2: PIDA Study final report 

This final output will be the final version the executive summary and of the sector 

reports, which have been initially produced for Phase 1 and have been continuously 

improved during the Phase 2 and Phase 3 consultation processes. 

The structure of the final report will be that of the original report. 


14



Output 4.3: Synthesis of the final report 

This will be the updated version of the executive summary of the draft final report. 

2.3.5 Output 5: other 

During the study, the Consultant will devote a major effort to data collection from the 

various sources. This data together with the information produced during the study 

(methodological notes, working papers, GIS data and models) will be stored in an 

electronic documentation library. 

As per the TOR, on completion of the work the documentation library together with 

the working documents and other relevant information will be made available to the 

AfDB. 

2.3.6 Recommendations on the time line 

On the basis of their work on the inception report the consultants propose a 

modification of time line to lengthen Phase 1 till the end of January 2011; it should be 

noted that the six weeks in August-September 2010 may not be very productive 

since they are vacation time and correspond also with the Ramadan period; the study 

would still be completed in 18 months. 

The resulting time line would be: 

Submission of inception report: July 5 th 2010 

Kick Off workshop: Week of 29 th July 

Phase 1: Validation Workshop: 23 rd September 2010 

Submission of Phase 1 report: 25 th January 2010 

Phase 2: four strategic sector workshops: 15 th April2011 

Phase 2: report: 15 th July 2011 

Phase 3 report: 20 th November 2011 

2.4 Specific methodological points 

2.4.1 Analytical framework, causal analysis 

The methodological outline for the analysis of the limiting factors annexed to the 

Program Concept Note is a reference for the work of the Consultants in assessing 

the success or failure of existing policies and projects. It is congruent with the best 

practices by the major donors 5 . 

The AUC Strategic Plan 2009-2012, in its vision for Africa emphasises the “principles 

of subsidiarity, complementarity with other Organs, Member States and RECs; close 

coordination and cooperation with the RECs; coherence of policies and programmes” 

The Consultant will also refer to the international consensus on aid effectiveness, 

emerging from the Shanghai Conference on Poverty of 2004, the Declaration of Paris 

5 The consultant will not carry out a full causal analysis of policies or projects, which is 

beyond the scope of the PIDA Study. 


15



of 2005 and the Accra Agenda of 2009. It gives weight to the principles of political 

commitment, ownership, harmonisation and alignment (hereafter referred to as “the 

principles”). 

Even though the principles refer to national projects they are also largely relevant to 

regional ones. In the regional context, they take on a new dimension: they do not 

affect the relations between donors and beneficiary countries, but those between: 

Continental and regional institutions; 

Continental/regional institutions and member countries; and 

Member countries themselves. 

The principles provide a prism to assess the causes of success and failures of 

existing policies and projects, as well as to make proposals for policy changes or 

recommendations on projects to be included in the infrastructure development 

program as well as on implementation arrangements. In this respect on 

The figure below summarizes the steps between a policy and an operational PIDA 

project (let’s call it “the chain”) as well as the institutions having a role at each stage 

(milestone) of the chain: the Heads of States, the Departments of continental (AUC, 

NEPAD) and regional organizations (RECs, L/RBOs, Corridors, Power Pools and 

other technical institutions), of national governments and entities (administrations and 

utilities). 

The three specific objectives of the PIDA Study are also mapped, as they affect: 

The vision, policies and strategies (strategic framework), 

The investment programme and the projects (infrastructure development 

programme). 

Financing and technical capacity (implementation arrangements). 

The upper half of the figure corresponds to the policy aspects and the lower half to 

the project cycle. The upper half concerns exclusively “soft” components. The 

investments program and the project cycle in the lower half concern a combination of 

“hard” and “soft” components. 


16




17



The diagram highlights: 

Three areas of overlapping responsibilities (and potential lack of coherence): 

policies, strategies and investment programmes; the potential for lack of 

coherence is increased in the cases where two or more regional organisations 

(RECs, L/RBOs, or other technical institutions) overlap. 

The multiple roles of the Heads of State, leaders simultaneously of the AU and 

NEPAD, the REC and their Governments; and 

The uneven distribution of financing and technical capability between the 

Governments and the regional institutions. 

2.4.2 Screening of policies and strategies 

The purpose of this section is to propose a methodology to screen the policies 

affecting PIDA projects. 

It should be noted that the Study will not “evaluate” the policies in the accepted sense 

of an OECD/DAC evaluation. The Study staffing is only sufficient to review of t of 

whether the policy is effectively applied and whether it is supporting PIDA projects. 

The objective is to understand the causes why some policies and institutional 

frameworks concerning PIDA projects have been more conducive to economic 

integration and successful than others. 

Each sector section will elaborate its approach to policy selection and assessment. 

Policies considered 

The Study will review policies and regulations whether they are formally approved or 

not, such as: 

Formally approved: 

By the Heads of State or the relevant ministers at their meetings of continental 

or regional institutions; (for instance the Yamoussoukro declaration for air 

transport) 

At the REC/RBO level as legal instruments (directives) 

Less formally approved: 

At the corridors level for transports or at the Power Pool level for energy; 

In bilateral agreements between countries and IFI. Once several countries 

have adopted the same recommendation by the IFI, it can become a regional 

policy (for instance Road Funds). 

National policies and regulations will be considered, to the extend that in a bottom up 

process: 

They affect traffic or trade with neighbouring countries (for instance transit fees on 

ITC traffic from landlocked country) 

They can inspire (serve as a model for) regional policies and regulations 


18



Policies and institutional framework 

The TOR rightly put together policies, strategies and regulatory and institutional 

frameworks. These aspects are linked: policies need to be translated in strategies 

then in plans and programs and finally in projects that are implemented and 

operated. The link between a policy and a functioning project is the institutional 

arrangement underpinned by an adequate regulatory framework. 

As explained above, in the Consultant’s view, the consistency of the principles (or 

lack of) (political commitment, ownership and alignment) along the “chain” is the key 

to the success (or the failure) of continental/regional policies. This consistency is 

strengthened to the extent that the policies result from a bottom up consultation and 

consensus building process and not from a top down decision. 

The analysis will also look into the two keys factors that explain the influence of 

institutions along the chain, namely technical and financial capacity, as shown in the 

following chart: 

Regional policies for infrastructures 

• institutional and legal framework 

• objectives 

• expected results 

Screening of regional infrastructure limiting factors 

AUC & NEPAD 

Objectives and Strategies 

Ownership and Alignment of Regional /RBOs Policies 

• Alignment of Regional Policies with AUC, NEPAD limiting 

• Agreement on regional strategies by Heads of States factors 

• Ownership and transposition into national policies analysis 

• Issue of regional regulations 

Technical management of Regional Infrastructures institutional 

• Stakeholders participation at regional level ownership 

• Regional Infrastructure specific communication coordination 

• Strategic Planning and M&E systems at regional level regulatory 

• Implementation arrangements & procedures capacities 

planning 

Funding Regional Infrastructures financing 

• Resource mobilisation strategy at regional level 

• Adequate funding for RECs managed activities 

From the review of policies, the Consultant will: 

Identify best practices, successful and failed policies; 

RECs 

RBOs 


Multicriteria matrix 

Gain insights in the technical and financial capacity of REC and other regional 

organization in the “chain” 

2.4.3 Screening of projects 

The Consultant will review a set of PIDA projects, both existing and under 

implementation or preparation including STAP flagship projects. Again this will not 

19



be an evaluation in the OECD/DAC acceptation, but rather the analysis of the limiting 

factors for their success or failure. 

Each sector section explains the selection of projects to be reviewed and the 

proposed methodology. 

Project cycle and milestones 

The table below summarises the cycle for a regional project and the institutions 

involved. 

The table below summarises the milestones of the project cycle: 

Step in the project cycle Milestone 

Project identification Pre feasibility report 

Project preparation Feasibility report 

Project funding Financing agreements 

Beginning of project implementation Award of major contracts 

End of implementation Commissioning of project 

Project evaluation and monitoring M&E report 

Project operation and maintenance 

Particular hurdles for regional projects 

Continental/regional projects face several specific difficulties even when there is 

consistency across institutions on the principles. The first is that each country and 

the REC itself may have different perceptions on the detailed options for the same 

regional project. 

The second difficulty is that generally speaking donors’ financing instruments are 

geared to national projects. As a result regional projects are often financed under 

agreements with each participating country with cross effectiveness conditionality 

and implemented individually by each government concerned through the national 

budget and according to national procedures (for procurement for instance). This is 

a well-documented source of complexity and delays. 

The third difficulty is that regional/continental projects usually require difficult to reach 

agreements among the countries concerned on common specifications, regulations 

as well as construction, operating and maintenance arrangements. 

2.4.4 Outlook for the future 

In accordance with the general TOR (section 4.2.6) the work on the outlook for the 

future will take into account a range of topics, which will also be discussed with the 

participants (POE members and stakeholders) during the kick off meeting: 

“The key issues relating to the potential contribution of infrastructure to African 

integration objectives; the constraints encountered in infrastructure development 

in its integrative role; and any lessons that can be learned from experience in 

other continents. 


20



The major factors, which are likely to determine Africa’s potential needs for 

regional and continental infrastructure up to 2030, e.g. growth paths, 

demographics, technological trends, emergence of development poles in Africa 

and the world, changes in international transport routes, economic trends, impact 

of climate change. 

The major infrastructure development challenges (regional and continental) in 

terms of land-locked countries, economic integration, growth, and poverty 

reduction. 

The challenges that regional and continental African stakeholders must overcome 

in order to implement a bold regional and continental infrastructure development 

policy, e.g. enabling environment; financing; budgets and trade-offs between 

national, regional and continental projects; the role of supranational bodies, sector 

governance.” 

Macro economic vision 

Data sources 

Data on past economic performance are provided in documents from various 

sources: the AfDB, the IMF, the WB and the UN. Many of the series of interest go 

back to the 60’s. 

Projections are more difficult to come by, with the exception of the projection of the 

population, available up to 2050 from UN source. The IMF’s World Economic Outlook 

2010 contains projections of macro economic variables such as GDP up to 2015. 

Institution Publication actual year projections Notes 

AfDB/AU/ECA Assessing Regional Integration in Africa IV 2007, some 2008 none 

AfDB/AU/ECA African Statistical Yearbook 2010 2009 none data by countries 

AfDB/OECD/ECA African Economic Outlook 2010 2007, some 2009 2011 data by countries 

AU / ECA Economic Report on Africa 2010 2008 or 2009 2010 or 2011 data by countries 

WB AICD, a time for transformation 2007, 2008 2015 for some information 

WB African Development Indicators 2010 2006, 2007 or 2008 none data by countries 

WB World Development Indicators 2007 none data by countries 

IMF World Economic Outlook 2010 2009 2011 2015 for the GDP 

IMF World Economic Outlook 2010 - Africa 2009 2011 2015 in countries' Article IV 

UN World Population Prospects 2008 revision 2010 2050 Projections for every 5 years 

Time frame 

The TOR propose that the outlook for the future cover the time horizons 2015 for the 

short term, 2020 for the medium term and 2030 for the long term. 

The suitability of this timeframe for the study was discussed during the meeting with 

the POE and the PMT on June 17, 2010. Indeed it appears that the same time frame 

is not relevant to the four sectors: TWR development takes place on a longer term 

than ICT or even roads. 

To make the short-term horizon relevant to all sectors except for ITC, it was agreed 

during the meeting with the POE and the PMT to extend it to 2020 and extend 


21



correspondingly the medium term (to 2030) and the long term (to 2040). The ICT 

would consider a time frame of 2012, 2015 and 20206. 

Past trends 

Past trends will be examined for Africa as a whole for the period 1980-2010. For 

comparison purposes, the same trends will be examined for several larger sized 

economies in other continents that have performed well, such as India, Malaysia and 

Brazil. 

Data concerned would include the Gross Domestic Investment (GDI), capital inflows 

(ODA and FDI), incremental capital output ration (ICOR), GDP per capita and volume 

of exports. 

The chart below illustrates the trend analysis that will be done at the beginning of 

phase 1: 

Analysis of past development trends 1980-2010 

AFRICA (1) Trends 

RECs social 

and indicators 

economic ratios 

trends GIS 

Other Regions (2) Policy 

India 

Brazil 

Malaysia 

limiting 

factors 

analysis 

lessons 

learned 

Some GDP indicators for Sub Saharan Africa, India, Brazil and Malaysia are 

summarized below: 

GDP constant, average annual growth rate GDP per capita (constant at 2000 USD prices) 

1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2008 1980-2008 1980 1990 2000 2008 

S-S Africa 1,87% 2,27% 3,99% 2,90% 587 531 510 618 

India 5,55% 5,46% 5,92% 6,06% 229 318 453 718 

Brazil 1,55% 2,54% 2,85% 2,48% 3 539 3 355 3 701 4 448 

Malaysia 5,98% 7,11% 4,02% 6,11% 1 919 2 608 4 030 5 151 

Source: World Bank, World Data Bank 

6 As will be seen in the ICT sector section, actions with important beneficial impact can be 

taken in the very short term. 


Data 

22



Projections 

Scenarios 

For the purpose of projecting GDP, two scenarios will be considered based on the 

data of the table above: 

A “business as usual” scenario reproducing the performance of Africa over the 

1980-2010 period; under this scenario the average rate of GDP growth would be 

about 3%. This compares with a forecast rate of population growth of 2.5% and 

would lead to only to a slow rate of poverty reduction (plus 15% cumulative over 

30 years); 

A "stretch" scenario with an annual rate of growth comparable to that achieved by 

the comparator countries (India and Malaysia) over the 1980-2010 period or 6% 

corresponding to a tripling of per capita GDP over the period. 

It is of course possible to imagine other scenarios. A scenario less than 3% would 

correspond to a constant impoverishment of Africa and would not be useful from the 

analytical point of view. A higher scenario may be overly optimistic. 

The “stretch” scenario will be the reference for the Study”. 

Modelling tool 

The macroeconomic projections will be prepared for each scenario using an 

economic simulation tool. 

The input to the simulation tool is the set of data gathered, analysed and validated in 

the trend analysis. The projections of population and the expected evolution of 

growth centres (such as large irrigated agriculture areas, growth of the major urban 

centres, and development of mining and industrial activities) will be taken into 

account in the simulation. 

As an output, the simulation tool will provide the macro economic framework, which 

will be used in the sector models for estimating the demand for infrastructure under 

the different scenarios. 


23



Outlook for the future 2010- 2040 

Potential Growth centres 

GIS 

Data 

GDP GDP GDP growth growth growth 3% 3% 3% 

Scenarios 

Economic simulation tool 

Demand for infrastructure 

The Consultant will attempt to capture the possible divergent evolution of individual 

countries (or group of countries) by: 

Using the projections made by the IMF in the World Economic Outlook for the 

projections up to 2015; 

Basing the projections to the medium term horizon (2020) on AICD’s country 

typology (resource rich, non-fragile low-income, fragile low-income and middle 

income)7; 

Establishing the long-term outlook on the continuation of the medium term trends. 

Derivation of outlook for sectors 

As explained in more details in the sector sections below, both econometric and 

pragmatic approaches will be considered to establish the outlook for the future. 

The econometric approach would link demand to the main macro economic 

variables (for instance GDP and population growth). It will be constrained by 

external aspects such as the availability of finance, environmental and social 

aspects. 

The pragmatic approach would be based on assumptions on access rates or on 

connectivity. 

In broad terms the sector approach will be: 

For the energy (power) sector, the correlation between GDP and population 

growth is well documented and accepted. The overall demand would be the 

aggregation of the national projections based on national growth rates. 

For the transport sector, econometric modelling is also commonly used. It can be 

complemented by a targeted approach (for instance link all capital cities). 

7 Africa’s Infrastructure, A Time for Transformation, World Bank, 2009, page 51 


GDP GDP GDP growth growth growth 6 6 6 % % % 

24



For the ICT sector, the demand will be projected on the basis of assumptions 

concerning the broadband access rate. 

For the transboundary water sector, the demand of water for food will be based on 

FAO projections and on the assessment of the irrigation potential taking into 

account water scarcity. 

2.5 Cross cutting aspects 

2.5.1 Financing and PPP 

As shown in the AICD study, the bulk of the actual annual financing for national 

infrastructure (45,3 billion dollars) is provided for 30 billion dollars 8 by domestic 

sources (budget, local capital markets and internal cash generation). The rest comes 

from private or external sources (PPP, ODA or non-OECD financiers). 

Compared to an annual spending requirement of 93 billion, and taking into account 

the potential efficiency gains for 17 billion per year, the residual annual gap (not 

financed) amounts to 31 billion dollars. 

Since the consumers and the private sector are expected to finance largely ICT, the 

financing gap is significant for the three other sectors, especially energy. 

In all likelihood the financing of PIDA projects will come from the same sources. 

The Study will examine the conditions for: 

Improving mobilisation from domestic sources in particular by increasing the credit 

worthiness of markets (in energy and transport); 

Promoting the use of PPP for selected projects of potential interest to the private 

sector with adequate PPP legal and regulatory frameworks; 

Mobilising specific resources for regional projects at the national and REC L/RBO 

level (own resources or scaling up the regional development banks such as the 

ECOWAS Bank for Investment and Development). 

2.5.2 Environment and climate change 

With exception of “soft” projects, most PIDA projects will be in category 1 according 

to the AfDB’s policies. 

The Consultant will not carry out environmental and social assessments (ESA) 

(either on a project or a sector basis). They will be mindful of potential environment 

and social impacts when placing various projects in the development program. 

As explained below in the sector section for energy, climate change will be taken into 

account in the preparation and analysis of possible low emission scenarios. 

8 Detailed in AICD: 20,4 for operation and maintenance, and 9,4 for capital expenditure from 

the public sector. 


25



2.6 Detailed description of horizontal tasks 

2.6.1 Preparation of the PIDA Study workshops 

The Consultant will assist the Client in preparing, organizing and implementing the 

workshops by: 

Assuring all necessary logistical arrangements; 

Proposing the structure of the workshop (notably plenary and regional sessions) 

and a method of facilitation. The proposal will be discussed and validated with the 

Client; 

Preparing the detailed agenda; 

Presenting briefs, and taking part in workshop proceedings, especially by 

clarifying the assumptions chosen during discussions and further analyses to be 

made consequently; 

Contributing to workshop proceedings, especially by ensuring that discussions 

effectively lead to the formulation of conclusions relevant to the strategic 

framework (including sector policies), infrastructure development program, and 

implementation strategy and processes; 

Playing the role of the facilitator and/or advising the Client on such a role in order 

to structure the conduct of the workshops and summarize the various conclusions. 

2.6.2 Phase III 

Support to securing ownership 

The Consultant will support the Client during the Phase III consensus building 

activities by: 

Assisting the client in preparing meetings with the RECs (and other stakeholders 

as necessary) either on a sector specific or cross sector basis; 

Presenting the drafts from Phase II to implementers (draft strategic framework, 

draft infrastructure development programme including the PAP, and 

implementation strategies; 

Preparation of the final report 

Under the guidance of the Client, the Consultant will prepare the final report taking 

into account: 

Comments by the RECs and other stakeholders; 

The conclusions of the analyses prepared during the PIDA Study. 

Transferring data 

Finally the Consultant will transfer the data collected, processed and analysed during 

the Study to the Client including: 


26



Raw Data collected during the Study, which will be transferred as a 

documentation library with Internet access; 

Models used in the sector studies 9 ; and 

GIS files in appropriate format. 

2.7 Other horizontal aspects 

2.7.1 Data collection 

The sector sections describe in detail the status of data collection under the PIDA 

Study, which is briefly summarized here. 

Data collected to date 

The data collected to date (see Annex 3 for the list of documents consulted) come 

from several sources: 

AICD 

The reference documents supplied by the Client 

Consultant’s own network 

AICD is an innovative knowledge program funded by the WB to improve 

understanding of Africa's infrastructure situation. It has carried out an unprecedented 

data collection effort in Sub Saharan Africa (excluding North Africa) in the main 

infrastructure sectors, including energy, ICT, transport, irrigation, and water and 

sanitation. 

The Consultants was given access to the entire AICD data available and will use it as 

a starting point for its data collection process. However, the review of the data during 

the Inception Phase has brought forth the fact that AICD information incomplete in 

the ICT and TWR. In the transport sector, international road transport data is not 

available in AICD. 

The Consultant has a track record of studies in the infrastructure sector. He has 

managed and successfully completed a large number of studies in the sector in the 

past years. The PIDA Study will benefit from this experience and the Consultant will 

refer to the data collected in its previous studies. Through his past experience, the 

Consultant has worked together with several RECs. These contacts will be used to 

facilitate data collection. 

Missing data collection strategy 

The missing data will be collected as indicated in the sector sections below and will 

include 

Visits to the RECs and other sector Institutions; 

Internet search; and 

9 taking into account the copyright issues 


27



Collection of raw data by the Consultant. 

The Consultant will visit the RECs and Sector Institutions during Phase I of the PIDA 

Study. These visits have several objectives, one of which is to collect data. This data 

collection process through RECs will give access to crucial information while creating 

a spirit of trust and cooperation between the Consultant and the regional institutions. 

To facilitate this process, all RECs and Institutions will be visited at an early stage 

and a questionnaire/list of required documents would be sent before the Consultant 

visits. 

International institutions and/or specialised entity (IMF, WB for example) make their 

data available to the public through Internet. Internet search will therefore represent a 

large source of information. The Consultant will pay special attention to the quality 

and accuracy of the data collected on the web. Priority will be given to official sources 

The inception work has demonstrated that some data are missing, in the sense that 

they are not available in AICD (for instance AICD provides no North Africa data), at 

the RECs nor other regional organisations. This is the case of trans border road 

transport or Internet traffic. In these cases special data collection efforts will be 

organised. As described below, the transport team will collect data by organising 

field visits while ICT plans to mobilise the regulators via the RECs. 

2.7.1 Resource Planning 

Work plan and time line 


28



The table below aggregates the work plans for the four sector studies into an overall 

work plan. 

Resources and deployment 

Team and expertise 

The table given in Annex N°3 presents expertise of the all PIDA Consulting 

members. 

On the basis of their work on the inception report the Consultant propose a 

modification of the staffing in the following manner: 

Hire a GIS expert for 5 man months; 

Hire a macro economist for 2 man months 


29



The man months would be by reallocating from the Infrastructure Expert position and 

the Institutional and Development Economist presented in the Consultant technical 

proposition. These reallocations do not affect the overall budget, either on honoraria 

or reimbursable expenses. 

Team organization 

2.7.2 Quality control 

The Consultant is committed to providing high quality services. This quality results 

form know-how acquired over years of experience using well-established procedures 

to monitor and evaluate our activity and ensure high quality reporting. 

Report standardization 

The Consultant will use the report format agreed with the Client. We also remain 

flexible to adapt our reporting according to the Client’s recommendations and specific 

requirements. 

All the deliverables will undergo a strict quality control process. Each report will be 

reviewed at headquarters, discussed, revised and formatted before it is submitted to 

the Client. 

Respect of deadlines 

The Consultant is committed to submitting reports in due time. Each expert will be 

required to produce the expected reports according to the schedule presented above. 

Continuous communication between the experts and headquarters 

A permanent contact between the Experts and SOFRECO Led Consortium is 

ensured through the presence on the ground of the Deputy Project Director, Hichame 

Selmaoui who provides the follow-up of main achievements, problems met, and 

discussing on the necessary adjustments. 


30



Progress indicators 

These have been defined to be able to have at anytime a clear picture of the project 

situation, especially in terms of respect of the agreed schedule, planned manpower 

utilization, agreed deliverables and deadlines for deliverables. 

The monitoring of these progress indicators, gathered through MS Project, enable 

the Deputy Project Director and the Programme Leader to follow-up the progress of 

project implementation and to detect any risk of deviation on time. 

2.7.3 Geographical Information System 

The study is a spatial planning study and as such will collect and analyze large 

amounts of data and information best visualized on maps through the use of a 

Geographical Information System (GIS). A GIS can integrate and relate any data with 

a spatial component. This allows to view, understand, question, interpret, and 

visualize data in many ways that reveal relationships, patterns, and trends. In this 

sense it becomes an analytical tool. 

The AICD project of the World Bank has collected a lot of GIS data (in the format of 

ArcGIS shapefiles), which have been made available to the study team. A multisector 

GIS, compatible with the AICD GIS, will be developed, using the widely used 

ArcGIS software. 

This task requiring a specialised expertise, the Consultant proposes to add a GIS 

specialist to its team, by reallocating 5 man months from the Infrastructure Expert 

position presented in the technical proposal. 

GIS data will be used not only for visualization on thematic maps to be used for 

communication with the Client and stakeholders, but also and most importantly as an 

analytical tool. 

2.7.4 Communications 

The Consultant sees open and transparent communications with all the stakeholders 

as a priority. 

Of particular importance is the continuous interaction with the RECs and the sector 

institutions such as L/RBOs and the technical institutions (such as Power Pools and 

Corridors). 

The sector sections below present how intensive and regular the interaction between 

the Consultant and the RECs and sector agencies will be. The Consultant expects 

that these contacts will facilitate the consensus building activities of the Study. 

2.7.5 Risk assessment 

The main risks affecting the study concern: 

Availability and quality of data 

The Study will rely on data to be collected both at the sector and at the macro 

economic level. The better the data the better the quality of the Study out put. 


31



Quality information availability is a pervasive issue in Africa. In this respect the PIDA 

Study will take full advantage of the work carried out by AICD. 

A related problem concerns data comparability: the major international organizations 

have different definitions of Africa: the AfDB considers the whole continent while the 

World Bank’s Africa Region does not include North Africa; similarly the IMF’s 

African Department does not include Egypt or Libya. As a result the data from 

different sources may not be comparable: an evident illustration is the AICD data, 

which does not include North Africa. 

Difficulty to get consensus among the various stakeholders on draft proposals 

for the strategic framework, the infrastructure development programme and 

the implementation arrangements. 

The PIDA Study in Phase II will define priorities among all candidate projects on a 

consensual basis with stakeholders and make proposals for the components of the 

strategic framework and the implementation arrangements. Disagreements might 

arise between regional/continental bodies’ (AUC, RECS, Corridors, Power Pools and 

River basin Authorities) view of priority and the one emerging from the Consultants’ 

analysis. 

Delay in approval of Study reports 

The difficulty in reaching consensus may lead to delays in the approval of the 

Consultant‘s reports and lead to delays in the completion of the study. 

These are exogenous risks seen form the PIDA Consulting Team that the Consultant 

cannot mitigate. 


32



ENERGY SECTION 

Consortium SOFRECO –MWH – NATHAN – SOFRECOM – SYSTRA – ASCON - CABIRA



ENERGY SECTOR............................................................................... 1 

1. BACKGROUND, ISSUES AND CHALLENGES .......................................... 1 

1.1 Background of Energy Sector in Africa ................................................. 1 

1.2 Challenges of the Energy Sector in Africa ............................................. 5 

1.3 Responding to the challenges ........................................................... 7 

2. SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES, SCOPE AND EXPECTED OUTPUTS OF PIDA 

ENERGY STUDY.........................................................................10 

2.1 Specific objectives....................................................................... 10 

2.2 Sectoral Objectives ...................................................................... 10 

2.3 Time horizon considered................................................................ 10 

2.4 Expected Outputs of the Study......................................................... 11 

3. METHODOLOGY AND ANALYTICAL APPROACH ...................................13 

3.1 Data needs and Data collection strategy ............................................. 13 

3.2 Tools to be developed................................................................... 18 

3.2.1 Score Card of Energy sector institutional readiness for regional projects at 

country and REC levels................................................................................18 

3.2.2 The long term Regional Investment Plan......................................................19 

3.2.3 The Regional Financing Equilibrium model ..................................................20 

3.3 Interaction with Stakeholders .......................................................... 21 

4. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF TASKS TO BE UNDERTAKEN........................22 

4.1 Task 1.1. Review and situation analysis of regional and continental 

policies and strategies................................................................... 22 

4.1.1 Task 1.1.1 Analysis of Policies and Strategies .............................................22 

4.1.2 Task 1.1.2 Assessment of the level of achievement of policy objectives.......23 

4.1.3 Task 1.1.3 Causal analysis of level of achievement......................................23 

4.2 Task 1.2 Review and situation analysis of regional infrastructure for 

Energy. .................................................................................... 23 

4.2.1 Task 1.2.1: Define a standardized template .................................................24 

4.2.2 Task 1.2.2 Review of existing infrastructures ...............................................24 

4.2.3 Task 1.2.3 Inventory of infrastructures under execution or preparation ........24

4.2.4 Task 1.2.4 Detailed analysis of selected successful/failed regional energy 

sector investment .........................................................................................25 

4.3 Task 1.3 Establishment of the outlook and program for the future 

and identification of Challenges ....................................................... 25 

4.3.1 Task 1.3.1 Initial vision and scenarios ..........................................................26 

4.3.2 Task 1.3.2 Completing data collection for programming ...............................26 

4.3.3 Task 1.3.3 Preparing alternative investment programs for the selection of 

preferred scenarios ......................................................................................27 

4.3.4 Task 1.3.4 Preparing the outlines of programs for regional energy trade 

facilitation and capacity building ...................................................................27 

4.3.5 Task 1.3.5 Analysis of choices and challenges for Regional Investment, trade 

facilitation and capacity building programs ...................................................28 

4.4 Task 2.1 Formulation of the Strategic Framework .................................. 28 

4.4.1 Task 2.1.1 Drafting Outline on Strategic Framework ....................................28 

4.4.2 Task 2.1.2 Consultation on Outline...............................................................28 

4.4.3 Task 2.1.3 Drafting the Strategic Framework ...............................................29 

4.5 Task 2.2 Formulation of the Energy Regional Investment Program ............... 29 

4.5.1 Task 2.2.1 Preparation of an Outline Program for the Development of 

Regional and Continental Energy Infrastructure ...........................................29 

4.5.2 Task 2.2.2 Consultation on Outline Regional Energy Program.....................30 

4.5.3 Task 2.2.3 Preparation of a Draft Program for the development of Regional 

and Continental Energy infrastructure ..........................................................30 

4.6 Task 2.3 Formulation of a draft implementation strategy and 

processes .................................................................................. 30 

4.6.1 Task 2.3.1 Formulation of a preliminary draft implementation strategy .........31 

4.6.2 Task 2.3.2 Formulation of a preliminary draft implementation processes......31 

4.6.3 Task 2.3.3 Integration of Phase II report and presentation ...........................32 

5. WORKPLAN AND TIMELINE ...........................................................32 

6. HUMAN RESOURCES DEPLOYMENT..................................................34 

6.1 Team and expertise...................................................................... 34 

6.2 Team organization ....................................................................... 34 

6.3 Task assignments......................................................................... 35


INCEPTION REPORT/ ENERGY SECTION 

ENERGY SECTOR 

1.BACKGROUND, ISSUES AND CHALLENGES 

1.1 Background of Energy Sector in Africa 

A region with a considerable primary energy potential. Africa accounts for nearly 

8.6% of the world oil reserves (2008), although unequally distributed (57 billions 

barrels in Northern Africa; 38 in Western Africa and 14 in Central Africa), and its 

production (10 million barrel/day) represent nearly 12% of the world oil production, 

but it has less than 4% of world’s refining capacity. Over 90% of the oil production is 

from a few countries (Algeria, Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea, Angola, Chad, Egypt, 

Sudan and Libya). Recent discoveries occurred in Ghana, Uganda and Mauritania. 

Oil Imports and Exports for Africa by Region, 2006 (1000 barrel/day) 

Crude 

Exports 

Crude 

Imports 

Product* 

Exports 

Product* 

Imports 

North Africa 2,721 179 615 178 

West Africa 4,706 68 123 234 

East & Southern Africa 385 514 22 176 

TOTAL WORLD 39,836 39,836 14,988 14,988 

* Products: Petroleum product derivatives. 

Data Source: BP (2008). 

The situation is similar for natural gas of which the continent holds 8% of the world 

total reserves (mainly in Nigeria, Egypt and Algeria) and accounts for approximately 

6% of total world production. 

Africa has a huge hydropower potential estimated at 1000 billion kWh / year, of which 

only 8% are used. The continent has also 6% of total world coal reserves (mainly in 

Southern Africa and Botswana). The renewable energy potential (wind, solar and 

biomass, but also geothermal) is under-exploited, and only few countries are actively 

working to develop it. 


1



OIL RESERVES 

OIL PRODUCTION 

GAS RESERVES 

8.6% of world reserves 

(African reserves grown by over 25%) 

12% of world production 

(38 countries are net oil importers) 

8% of world reserves 

GAS PRODUCTION 6% of world production 

COAL 

6% of world reserves 

(over 95% in South Africa alone) 

HYDROPOWER Potential : 1trillion kWh / year 

RENEWABLE Huge potential 

Mainly in: 

Northern Africa 

Western Africa 

Central Africa 

Mainly: 

Algeria 

Nigeria 

Egypt 

Sudan 

Chad 

Eq. Guinea 

Libya 

Mainly in : 

Nigeria 

Algeria 

Egypt 

Mainly: 

Nigeria 

Algeria 

Egypt 

Mainly in: 

Southern Africa 

But: 

Only 8% used 

But: 

Under exploited 

The population growth induced a significant increase of energy demand and in most 

countries the consumption continues to rise at rates faster than that of GDP. Africa 

accounts for about 15% of the world’s population, but it consumes only 3% of global 

commercial energy. The 2007 final energy consumption of Africa is characterized by 

the big share of biomass (57%), and the large part of the household consumption 

(64%) compared to Industry and Commercial consumption. 

With 3% of the world’s commercial energy consumption, more than half of African 

population has not access to electricity and use kerosene or candles for lighting. 

According to UPDEA (Union of Producer and Distributors of Electricity in Africa), the 

annual consumption of electricity was estimated at 488 billions kWh (less than half 

the African installed hydro-power annual potential) from which Sub-Sahara accounts 

66.7%. 

Africa’s natural gas consumption in 1965 was 1 billion cubic meters and increased to 

75.8 billion cubic meters in 2006, representing about 2.6% of world consumption. 

Nearly half of domestic gas demand comes from the industry sector; two third of 

petroleum products are consumed by the transport sector and more than half of the 

electricity is consumed by the households. 


2



Commercial energy consumption 3% of world’s consumption 

Biomass consumption 57% of the final energy consumption 

Household energy consumption 64% of the final energy consumption 

Electricity consumption 

Electricity consumption / capita 

Electrification rate 

Less than half of the installed hydro-power annual potential 

More than half is consumed by households and services 

1767 kWh/year in Southern Africa 1 

952 kWh/year in Northern Africa 2 

532 kWh/year at continental level 

155 kWh/year in Western Africa 3 

151 kWh/year in Central Africa 4 

65 kWh/year in Eastern Africa 5 

Continental average: 29% 

Northern Africa: rural: 85% ; urban: 95% 

Southern Africa: rural: 10% ; urban: 64% 

Western Africa: rural: 2% ; urban: 66% 

Continental level: rural: 14%; urban: 54% 

Central Africa: rural: 1% ; urban: 21% 

Eastern Africa: rural: 1% ; urban: 34% 

Gas consumption Half of domestic consumption is used by the industry sector 

Petroleum products consumption Two third are consumed by the transport sector 

NIGERIA ALONE COULD MEET THE POWER NEEDS OF WEST AFRICA 

Nigeria is gradually trying to develop a regional market for its gas. The government is working 

on a plan to build about 600km of new gas pipeline to Benin, Togo, and Ghana. The 

governments of these four West African nations agreed in 1995 to build the pipeline, which, 

with the existing pipeline, would stretch about 960 km. This pipeline project, according to 

World Bank studies, could save West African countries that would importing the gas about 

$500 billion in primary energy costs over 20 years. It will also contribute to the long-desired 

economic integration of the region. Nigeria is potentially capable of fueling the power needs of 

the whole of West Africa. 

Source: “Oil and Gas in Africa” Joint Study by the African Development Bank and the African 

Union; 2009 

An under-served market by world standards. The electricity consumption per 

inhabitant was 532 kWh/year, with large disparities between the regions (1767 kWh 

1 Angola, Botswana, DRC, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Republic of South Africa (RSA), Zambia, 

Zimbabwe. 

2 Algeria, Tunisia, Morocco, Egypt, and Libya 

3 Benin, Burkina Faso, Cap Verde, Cote d’Ivoire, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Mauritania, 

Niger, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, and Togo 

4 Angola, Burundi, DR of Congo, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, Rwanda, Sao Tome and Principe and Chad 

5 Burundi, DRC, Djibouti, Eritrea, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda 


3



in South; 952 kWh in North; 155 kWh in West; 151 kWh in Central Africa and only 65 

kWh in East). According to "Scenario for Increasing Access to Electric Power in 

Africa by 2030", the electrification rate average was 24% for the continent, but vary 

from 14% in rural areas to 54% in urban areas. In Northern Africa these rates are 

respectively 85% and 95%; in Southern 10% and 64%; in Western 2% and 66%; in 

Central 1% and 21% and in Eastern 1% and 34%. A number of the countries are 

facing power shortages and rationing. 

Graph 1 Electricity consumption per year per capita in Africa 

Graph 3 Final Consumption of Energy in Africa 

Considerable needs for electricity. An indicative generating capacities forecast by 

2030 provided by AfDB, shows that installed power capacity shall increase from 153 

GW to 280 GW over 2007-2030. 


4



Graph 4 Power generation capacity needs 2007-2030 

Based on this figures, the total investment requirement to implement AfDB scenario 

for universal access to reliable and cleaner electric power in all the 53 African 

countries by 2030 is estimated at nearly 24 billion US$ per year, of with half in sub- 

Saharan countries. 

Graph 5 Africa Energy Investment needs 2010-2030 

1.2 Challenges of the Energy Sector in Africa 

Low access to modern energy. The 800 million people in sub-Saharan Africa 

(excluding South Africa) share a combined generation capacity equivalent to that of 

Argentina (28GW), a country of less than 40 million people. Only 24% of sub- 

Saharan Africans have access to electricity (versus 40% in other low-income 

countries), and this figure drops to less than 10% in rural areas. 6 

6 UN Report 2008 


5



Electricity service coverage in sub-Saharan Africa 

Graph 6 Electricity Access(by geographical area, % households) 

If the current trend continues, fewer than half of African countries will reach 

universal access to electricity even by 2050. Efforts to increase access will also 

be affected by rapid urbanization across Africa. Rural-urban migration will increase 

the focus on grid power connection in the coming decades. In fact, rural population 

will decline in all income categories except in low-income countries. Meeting 

increasing demand in rapidly growing low-income and informal urban settlement 

areas will be a challenge. 

Power consumption represents a tenth of that found elsewhere in developing 

countries, hardly enough to power one 100-watt light bulb per person for three hours 

a day. 

Shortage of electricity throttles social development and economic growth. 

About 35 countries in Africa are currently experiencing power shortages with frequent 

supply interruptions. African firms declare to lose 5-6% of their sales as a result of 

frequent power outages (an average of 56 days a year), this figure goes up to 20% 

for informal sector firms unable to afford backup generation facilities. 

Lack of power also holds back the achievement of the full range of Millennium 

Development Goals. Without access to modern and sustainable energy services, the 

poor in Africa are deprived of opportunities for to improve their living standards. 

Although energy is not explicitly mentioned in the Millennium Declaration, the MDGs 

cannot be met without higher quality and larger quantities of energy services than 

current approaches provide. The contribution of energy services to meeting the 

MDGs consists of both the direct impact of energy on raising incomes and the 

indirect impacts on education, health, environment, and gender issues. The linkages 

between energy services and the MDGs and growth are varied and complex. 

The cost of energy to most African economies is higher than in other regions. 

Presently, the cost of energy to African economies is higher than elsewhere: (i) the 

cost of petroleum products reflects inadequate downstream industrial organization 

with many inefficient refining facilities penalizing economies and the national budget, 

and less than fully efficient markets for petroleum products sourcing on the 


6



international market; landlocked countries bear the high cost of inefficient land 

transport of petroleum products; (ii) electricity cost is estimated ot be twice the cost 

of energy in other regions: it is inflated because of poor planning leading to 

uneconomic emergency investment in power generation and reliance on expensive 

self-generation requires to mitigate the effect of poor quality of power supply; and 

inefficient management of transmission and distribution systems leads to high 

technical losses in power systems; (iii) the most economically attractive opportunities 

for power generation are regional and require complex structuring and transactions; 

and (iv) the burden of managing traditional fuels for cooking and occasionally, space 

heating, diverts economic resouces from more productive uses, in addition to the 

environmental cost of deforestation. 

The energy sector is a source of macroeconomic instability both in energy 

importing and exporting countries. The recent oil price instability highlighted the 

importance of diversifying the energy portfolio, aggressively pursuing measures to 

improve energy efficiency, and being better prepared for high energy price volatility. 

Large energy price changes affect relative costs of technologies, and price volatility is 

one of the greatest obstacles to developing alternative energy in Africa, despite a rich 

endowment in hydro, biomass, geothermal and solar energy. 

The poor financial condition of the energy sector in most countries 

compounded by the financial crisis is affecting the capacity of the Energy 

sector in Africa to mobilize external financing to jump-start sector investment. 

The global financial crisis is causing a collapse in already scarce private financing for 

the energy sector in Africa. Efforts to curb soaring budget deficits in donor countries 

and the reallocation of fiscal resources in priority to deal with the domestic impact of 

the crisis implies that external concessional financing may be even more constrained 

in the medium term. The investment needs are so huge and public resources are so 

limited that there is no alternative to sourcing much of the financing gap from capital 

markets, provided attractive returns and suitable risk profiles are guaranteed. 

Constrained investment will make meeting future demand all the more difficult, 

threatening to throttle growth. African governments need to formulate policies that 

are resilient to energy price volatility. 

Energy sector in Africa is a source of environmental damage. Africa, although a 

small contributor to the GHG emission issue, needs to adopt a less carbon intensive 

strategy for energy supply, and its large endowment witin renewable energy 

potentially put the continent in a strong position worldwide. Regional strategies to 

pursue a lower-carbon path are currently under discussion. In December 2007, 

parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change adopted the 

Bali Action Plan for the enhanced implementation of the Convention, according to 

which developing countries would consider nationally appropriate mitigation actions 

in “the context of sustainable development, supported and enabled by technology, 

financing and capacity-building.” Africa, because of the nature of its primary energy 

endowment (biomass and hydro in particular), is exposed to the consequencves of 

climate change which will affect its water resources and its continental distribution as 

well as the allocation of its solar resources. At the local level, the energy sector is 

estimated to contribute by at least 30% to deforestation. 

1.3 Responding to the challenges 

Ensuring sufficient supply of electricity through regional exchanges. Africa’s 

potential energy resources are sufficient to cover the needs of the continent but they 

are un-evenly distributed geographically. Considering that the most economical 

opportunities for energy productions are of a size that exceeds the needs of national 


7



economies, projects of regional or sub-regional dimension, complemented by the 

best national projects, need to be developed and implemented in a timely manner, 

and a reliable transmission systems needs to be developed to transport energy from 

the optimum production centers to the demand centers, and to facilitate crosssupport 

between national systems to improve reliability and reduce investment 

requirements. Regional exchanges can ensure a continental balance between 

energy supply and demand. 

Making energy available through local entrepreneurship for distribution. 

Making energy available requires not only that a sufficient amount of energy is 

available but alos that it is delivered to consumers. Delivering energy to consumers: 

The enabling conditions for rapid expansion of grid and off-grid electrification exist in 

many African countries, providing a basis for action. A good number of African 

countries have over the past decade pursued a reform agenda in the energy sector 

that has created a conducive policy and institutional framework in support of rapid 

scale-up of electrification. To scale up energy access, building on best practices, 

Africa will have to mobilize entrepreneurship and resources from the local private 

sector to expand distribution systems at the community level. 

Closing the Financing gap through restored sector creditworthiness. The total 

financing needs for Africa to resolve the power supply crisis and meet future demand 

are about US$40 billion per annum. This is the cost of expanding generation capacity 

by 7,000 MW per annum to achieve and maintain demand-supply balance, and 

raising electrification rates by 10 percentage points. Currently, the region spends only 

about $11 billion per annum (or just over a quarter of what is required) leaving a 

financing gap of about $30 billion. Commitments from donors averaged $1.5 billion a 

year for 2005/07, reaching a peak of $2.3 billion in 2007. This remains small in 

relation to the needs. Private sector financing of creditworthy regional projects will be 

key to energy supply and access expansion. For example, private sector expertise 

will be needed to develop the large complex regional generation projects that are 

necessary. But the energy sector in Africa has to become the best business 

destination for investors in a globalized financing market. Enhancing credit risk 

profile of large energy projects will need further reforms at the sector and utility level, 

as well as improving business climate. 

Developing economical regional energy projects to lower energy cost. The 

most cost effective approach for expanding generation capacity at the lowest unit 

cost is to develop large-scale generation projects to supply regional power pools 

through cross-border trade. However, local markets often cannot absorb fully the 

outputs of such mega-projects, resulting in sub-optimal utilization. Regional power 

trade could make new hydro-power projects more bankable, resulting in savings for 

sub-Saharan Africa of US$2 billion per year, reducing the unit cost of delivered power 

through economies of scale and lowering carbon emissions through a reduction in 

oil-fired generation. Regional approaches to both generation and transmission will be 

needed to support the bilateral trades and power pools that will enable increased 

development of low cost energy. Action can be based upon the wealth of existing 

pre-feasibility studies for the development of electricity and gas At a minimum, the 

significant funds required for project preparation − including design studies, 

institutional reinforcement and environmental and social assessments should be 

made available. 

Adapting to Climate change. Africa is most vulnerable to climate change – it is 

least prepared to deal with it, and will suffer the soonest and the most from it 

because of its dependence on hydro power and biomass. The energy sector in 

Africa contributes little to global greenhouse gas emissions and scaling up electricity 

access would add only a small fraction of projected global emissions – from 1.5 


8



percent of global annual energy-related CO2 emissions today to 2-3 percent of global 

emissions by 2050. This is a result of very low energy consumption now and the 

hydro-dominated power generation capacity mix found in many African countries. 

Provision of basic modern energy services to the poor would contribute only 1 

percent to global CO2 emissions. 

Despite contributing little to global emissions, African countries should stand to gain 

from opportunities afforded by emerging new financing instruments and cleaner 

energy technologies. Further expansion of Africa‘s hydro potential, particularly large 

regional projects, can play a dual role of developing lower carbon energy and 

increasing climate resilience through improved water storage. 

Low Access 

Graph 7 From challenges to Objectives 

Challenges Responses to the Challenges Objectives 

Power shortages 

High Cost 

Source of instability 

Bankrupt sector 

Environmental Damage 

Local Entrepreneurship 

Governance/Management 

Regional Market Integration 

Low Cost Regional Projects 

Clean Energy Technologies 


Energy Security 

Low Cost 

Universal 

Access 

Sustainability 

PIDA Study 

Strategy 

Programme 

Implementation 

9



2.SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES, SCOPE AND EXPECTED 

OUTPUTS OF PIDA ENERGY STUDY 

2.1 Specific objectives 

The specific objectives of the study are: 

establish a strategic framework for the development of regional and continental 

Energy development infrastructures based on shared development vision, 

strategic objectives and sector policies; 

establish a Energy infrastructure development program articulated around 

priorities established over the short, medium, and long- term horizons by Power 

Pools and RECs ; 

prepare an programme implementation strategy and processes including, in 

particular, the improvement of institutional arrangements (such as regulatory and 

administrative processes); a Priority Action Plan (PAP) and financing options 

including measures for promoting, attracting and sustaining private sector 

participation in infrastructure development. 

2.2 Sectoral Objectives 

Based on the preceding analysis for the energy sector, and subject to further 

discussions, the Consultant proposes the objectives that the Strategic Framework 

and the Infrastructure Program could include the following elements: 

Achieving universal access to 

modern energy 

Achieving energy security 

Lowering the cost of energy 

Financially sustainable energy 

sector 

2.3 Time horizon considered 

in particular for poverty reduction, by promoting the use of clean, 

modern energy in lieu of biomass to improve living conditions in 

households and protect the environment 

of regional and continental energy through trade, and regional 

integration, pooling of energy resources and developing them jointly 

to reduce poverty and increase the competitiveness of African 

economies on the global market; 

Developing institutions, instruments and credit enhancement Action 

Plans to bridge the financing gap for regional projects, with a special 

focus on large regional energy projects 

The ToR specifies that the Consultant may propose alternative time horizons in their 

proposal. For Energy Sector, longer time horizons could indeed be justified. 

The proposed time horizons, such as agreed upon during the meeting with the Panel 

of Experts on 17 June, are: 

the short term (2010-2020) instead of (2010 – 2015) 

medium term (2021 -2030) instead of (2016 – 2020) 

and long term (2031- 2040) instead of (2021 – 2030) 


10



The horizon 2040 is considered for “The long term Regional Investment Plan” as 

explained below, while 2020 and 2030 are more considered as “programming 

horizons” as only few new continental projects are likely to be operational and to 

produce benefits before 2020. 

2.4 Expected Outputs of the Study 

The outputs will be: 

Evaluation of African energy situation and causal analysis: 

Review of the previous studies related to energy integration in Africa; 

Review of the power sector reforms as contributors to regional trade; 

Review the renewable energy potential; 

Review the hydroelectricity potential; 

Review of existing hydropower and thermal power plants; 

Analysis of the African and sub regional energy balances: 

Primary energy demand by type 

Primary energy demand by region 

Energy production and imports/exports 

Final energy demand by sector 

Electricity demand 

Electricity supply 

Electricity generation performances 

Fuel requirements for electricity generation 

Barriers to improved electricity access 

Benchmarking the indicators with other regions in the World; etc. 

One of the most important outputs will be the electricity demand, in the form of 

electricity growth scenarios by sub-regions and by countries. 

Power outlook and investment program of each scenario: 

The power outlook and investment program will be based on: 

Economic situation and trends; 

Supply: 

Identified energy resources by region; 

New power plants investments forecast; 

Priority projects; 

Transmission network forecast; 

Gas, oil products and coal requirements for power generation; 

Demand: 

Energy demand by form and by subsector; 

Power demand forecast; 

Demand side management, renewable energy and energy efficiency; 


11



Financing 

Investment financing needs; 

Financing Plan; 

Average tariff; 

Environment 

Carbon dioxide emissions and environmental impacts ; 

Barriers to avoid; etc. 


12



3.METHODOLOGY AND ANALYTICAL APPROACH 

3.1 Data needs and Data collection strategy 

Data needed for the execution of the PIDA study are: 

Continent-wide information on energy production and consumption 

Background information regarding Sub-regional energy policies, 

Inventory of projects under preparation and under implementation, 

Information on identified constraints to investment. 

Information on energy production and consumption 

Purpose: Establish base line data for the year 2008, to all extent possible, for the 

preparation of energy demand projections: electricity, biomass and petroleum 

products. 

Electricity: The Energy team will collect historical data at country level, aggregated at 

sub-regional and continental level on: 

Electricity production in terms of energy and capacity (distinguishing between 

installed capacity and available capacity) from hydro, other forms of renewable 

and thermal; 

Consumption distinguishing between consumption mainly related to GDP growth 

(industries and commercial, public sector) and consumption affected by per capita 

revenue, demography, access (residential low voltage); 

Transmission systems with a potential for regional exchanges (above 110 kV); 

and 

Regional trade statistics. 

Biomass and alternative fuels: Biomass as traditional energy for cooking and space 

heating is estimated to meet 70% to 80% of energy needs in SSA and about 40% on 

North Africa Consumption of biomass as a source of energy is a regional issue as it 

is a major contributor to deforestation and CO2 emissions and a contributor to 

climate change at the national and regional levels 7 .; it is also a major contributor to 

health hazard at household level with gender implications. Data and statistics on 

biomass utilization as a source of energy are scarce, may not cover all countries and 

are sometime un-reliable. The Energy team will nevertheless make its best effort to 

collect consistent data on present utilization of biomass as a traditional source of 

energy (historical series are not available). Statistics will be collected on wood fuel, 

charcoal and alternative fuels (LPG and kerosene), on the estimated contribution of 

biomass as traditional fuel to deforestation, and on the gender aspects of the 

collection and utilization of biomass as a source of energy. 

The Energy team will develop a simple demand projection model for consumption of 

biomass for energy based on demographic factors, urban migration, and 

modernization of energy consumption with per capita GDP (“climbing the energy 

ladder” and substitution of more modern fuels to wood fuel and charcoal) and 

potential for efficiency gains in use of traditional forms of energy. 

7 Energy is the second largest cause of deforestation, after agriculture. 


13



Petroleum products: The consumption of Petroleum products by the power sector 

(gas, Diesel, HFO) represents typically about 30% of total petroleum consumption in 

Africa (with a great variability depending upon the share of hydro in the power mix). 

The Energy team will collect data on historical petroleum product consumption for 

power generation (imported and locally produced) in volume and in value by type of 

product, aggregated in terms of TeraJoules of energy and value in Euro. Demand 

projections by demand center for petroleum products will be generated as a byproduct 

of the Power Sector Regional Long term Development Plan (see below). 

The Energy team will collect data from AICD data base, the Power Pools, directly at 

country level (Libya and Egypt) complemented by CEN-SAD data, IEA energy 

balances, US Energy Information Administration (DOE). 

Regional and Sub-regional energy strategies 

The Energy team will analyze regional and sub-regional energy strategies and 

implementation plans of UA, the RECs and Power Pools, as well as major donors 

when they have strategies relevant to the African energy sector. The analysis will 

cover not only general strategies but also energy strategies and sub-sectoral 

strategies when they exist. The content of the strategies will be analyzed with regard 

to the following aspects: 

Regional integration; 

provisions for regional energy project development 

orientations regarding regional market integration 

procedures for the development of regional energy projects 

facilitation of energy exchanges 

allowing effective regional coordination for planning, dispatch, trading, 

technical standards 

Sector financial viability; 

management of utilities 

contribution to address the financing gap 

Approach to Access; 

energy access objectives and priorities 

PPP; 

approach to PPP for infrastructure 

Environment. 

environmental strategies in their energy dimension 

contributing to environmental sustainability 

The information regarding policies will be obtained from existing posting on web 

sites, complemented by direct discussions with RECs, Power Pools and main 

donors. 


14



Inventory of major projects under preparation and implementation 

The Energy team will prepare an inventory of energy projects with a regional 

dimension. 

The definition of energy projects to be inventoried will be taken as: 

infrastructure energy projects including transmission and generation projects 

which involve several countries such as Gouina or Ruzuma Falls and/or are of a 

size that would have a significant impact on regional energy exchanges 8 such as 

the rehabilitation of Inga 1 and 2; 

energy trade facilitation projects such as the development of SAPP, WAPP and 

other regional power pools, 

capacity building projects which support directly or indirectly regional energy 

exchanges, such as training programs for African Power Regulators, 

institutional development projects which will enhance the capacity of a national 

system to participate in regional exchanges, such as the Action Plan for 

SOMELEC or the rehabilitation of SNEL. 

Each Regional Energy Projects complying with one of the categories above will be 

classified in one of four categories, depending upon their degree of certainty: (i) 

projects under implementation; (ii) projects for which at least 50% of the funding is 

secured with legally binding agreements, but implementation has not commenced; 

(iii) projects for which feasibility studies have been completed; and (iv) projects 

which have not passed pre-feasibility stage but are defined in conceptual terms and 

for which preliminary cost evaluations are available. Projects in the first two 

categories will be considered committed, whereas projects from the third and fourth 

categories will be considered as candidate projects to be evaluated and prioritized. 

Projects of the fourth category will be submitted to likelihood and technical and 

financial credibility tests to explain why they may be included in, or excluded from 

the list of potential regional projects 9 or pushed to the later years of the regional 

energy projects program. 

8 Energy projects located in a given country, but with a size or capacity higher than 20% of the country’s energy 

consumption will be considered as affecting the regional potential for power exchanges, as they will affect directly or 

indirectly the imports or export potential of the country. Projects which require the cooperation of several countries 

for fuel supply (including water from common water basins), for shared off-take, or for allowing directly or indirectly 

cross-border exchanges (including high voltage transmission projects located in one country but feeding into transborder 

transmission lines which will also be considered regional). 

9 This test will aim at eliminating projects at a very conceptual stage with clear technical issues or with an 

underestimated cost, which would “crowd out” more credible projects if they are considered as potential candidates in 

the long term plan. 


15



Graph 8 Inventory of Regional Projects 

Infrastructure 

Energy 

Energy 

Trade 

Facilitation 

Regional 

Capacity 

Building 

Utility 

Institutional 

Development 

Under 

Implementa 

tion 

Partly 

financed 

Pre 

feasibility 

Sources of data regarding regional energy projects will be the data base of candidate 

projects considered in the Long Term Development of each Power Pool and in the 

long term development plan of Egypt and Libya; Candidate institutional and capacity 

building regional energy projects will be identified through the RECs and the Power 

Pools and through the main donors (ADB, World Bank group, EIB, KfW and GTZ, 

AFD, USAID, DFID, CIDA, ...). 

Information on identified constraints to investment 

Conceptual 

Stage 

In the power sector: Major constraints to investment in national and regional energy 

infrastructure are: 


16



country creditworthiness, as power sector investment risk assessment to meet 

local demand is capped by the overall country credit risk; 

the power sector’s own creditworthiness, as the creditworthiness of a regional 

power project depends on the creditworthiness of its weakest participant; and 

the regulatory framework and its openness to regional projects and power trading. 

Graph 9 Constraints to Investment 

Sector 

creditworth 

Country’s credit rating 

Openness of Regulation to Regional Projects 

The Energy team will survey and document the sovereign credit rating of all countries 

and their recent history in terms of sovereign borrowing on the international market, 

as it determines their present capacity to contribute to the risk sharing of regional 

power projects. At the power sector creditworthiness level, the Energy team will 

collect information on proxies for assessing sector creditworthiness including sector 

cash flow on operation, capital investment, nominal and effective tariff, Long Run 

Marginal Cost (when available through national sector development plans), technical 

and commercial losses, availability of plants. The Energy team will also document for 

each country the friendliness of power sector institutions to regional project and 

regional trading by collecting information in each country regarding the persistence of 

a national monopoly for power generation, transport and distribution, the regulatory 

situation, the existence of IPPs in the sector, the legal provisions for power trading. 

Information for documenting the constraints on regional energy investment and trade 

and development of regional policies for specific energy sub-sectors will be obtained 

from the three main Credit Rating Agencies for sovereign ratings, Bloomberg for the 

terms of sovereign borrowing, from the Rating Agencies (for the few African utilities 


17



that are rated) and PPIAF under on-going utility rating program. Information will be 

collected from the AICD data base on utilities’ creditworthiness for the countries 

already covered and to be added to the data base shortly. The information will be 

complemented by direct collection on North African utilities and a number of SSA 

utilities from the ADB and the World Bank Energy Units and existing energy project 

reports from these same institutions which often include financial and 

losses/collection related statistics. Information on the regulatory framework and its 

openness to regional projects and trade of energy will be assessed based on several 

recent reports produced by the World Bank on power sector reforms, and on project 

specific documentation from ADB, the World Bank and IFC which generally cover the 

country situation with power sector reforms and regulatory framework. It may not be 

possible, though to cover the power sector in all countries in Africa. Some gaps may 

be unavoidable, which should not affect significantly the validity of the conclusions of 

the analysis. 

In the biomass sector: the Energy team will document experiences with the 

introduction of higher efficiency heating and cooking appliances, and with fuel 

substitution programs, with a special focus on identified obstacles and successful 

solution developed to overcome them. The situation of traditional fuels expenditure 

in household budget will also be examined to understand the issues to be addressed 

under regional fuel substitution programs. 

Regarding the data on obstacle to the modernization of traditional energy 

consumption, the main sources will be country specific reports from ADB, the World 

Bank and ESMAP, USEAI, IEA and selected non-profit organizations. A number of 

countries, however, may not be documented, but a sufficient sample will be covered 

to present a robust picture of the situation in the traditional energy sector. 

3.2 Tools to be developed 

The Energy team will develop specific tools for the analysis of energy related 

strategies and the formulation of regional strategies related to energy; the 

preparation of an optimized regional development program for electricity; and dealing 

with the financing issues. The tools to be developed are: 

Score card for Energy sector institutional readiness for regional projects at country 

and REC levels 

Preparation of a Long Term Regional Investment Program 

Regional Financing Equilibrium model 

Country Power sector creditworthiness Assessment 

3.2.1 Score Card of Energy sector institutional readiness for regional 

projects at country and REC levels 

The preparation of a consistent evaluation instrument amongst countries aims at 

focusing the attention of national and regional authorities on a limited number of 

issues directly relevant to the development of a regional strategy and investment 

program. It will be complemented by an evaluation of the RECs themselves 

regarding their readiness to support regional strategies and projects. The Energy 

team will apply the templates given in Annex 4 to evaluate the extent to which the 

national energy sector framework in each African country is supportive to the 

development and implementation of a regional energy strategy and the development 

and implementation of regional projects. Once the country score cards have been 


18



documented, they will be analyzed at the country and REC level and aggregated with 

the REC score cards. The information collected in the score cards will be analyzed 

based on the assessment of performance and success in the following areas: 

energy trade facilitation within the region 

development of a competitive regional market 

lowering energy cost 

accelerating access 

support to PPP 

Integration of regional water management 

The diagnostic presented in the country and REC score cards will lead to the 

formulation by the Energy team of recommendations for reforms at country and REC 

levels, as part of the PIDA Regional Program Implementation task. It should be 

noted that the country and REC recommendations will be limited to area directly 

related to facilitation of the adoption of a regional energy policy and the 

development/implementation of regional projects. 

3.2.2 The long term Regional Investment Plan 

For the preparation of the Regional Investment plan at the horizon 2040, the Energy 

team will proceed in two steps, using two interconnected tools. 

A Regional investment optimization model will be used to identify Regional projects 

needed to balance the electricity supply and demand at the continental level. The 

Energy team will develop electricity demand projections by demand centers to the 

horizon 2040 both in terms of energy and power distinguishing between grid-served 

demand which can be integrated in a regional system and decentralized energy 

systems. The main parameters retained for the projections will be: 

the GDP growth scenario for Africa, further detailed at country or sub-region level; 

the evolution of urban and rural population and the demographic factors; 

per capita GDP; 

access policy and objectives; 

energy conservation and demand side management; and 

projected effective tariffs. 

The demand projections will produce 8 demand scenarios, combining the Africa 

growth prospects scenario retained, the increase in access rate, and the energy 

conservation policy. 

Two fuel price scenarios will be taken into consideration, based on projections 

prepared by IEA and the World Bank; each fuel price scenario will distinguish: (i) one 

sub-scenario without assigning a value to CO2 emissions, (ii) one sub-scenario with 

a CO2 value of $10/ton; and (iii) one sub-scenario with a CO2 value of $20 per 

tonne10. Under the first set of calculations, Africa will be treated as a borderless 

continent. Then, each scenario will be fed into the optimization model in order to 

select the most economical (least cost) generation investment sequence over the 

2010-2040 period and to design the supporting regional transmission system. 

Several alternative models will be considered, taking into account the long time 

10 The range of values for CO2 emissions will be examined and justified separately. 


19



horizon, the large number of candidate projects (including both national and regional 

candidate projects) and the large number of hydro projects, which need a specific 

treatment for planning purpose. The AICD optimization model, duly modified, will be 

considered as a possible optimization tool. 

Starting from the Base Case demand, fuel price and zero value of CO2, three main 

risks or constraints will be evaluated: 

constrained financing: availability of financing for capital investment about 30% 

below the requirements of the optimum case; 

constrained imports for energy independence sake: imports of any country limited 

to less than 20% of demand; 

postponing by a number of years to be agreed with AfDB all projects with a cost 

above $3 billion. 

Each scenario will be quantified through a model extension to evaluate its 

environmental impact in terms of GHG emissions. 

A second module will evaluate the various scenarios which differ with regard to CO2 

value, import constraint and financing constraint in terms of: 

Investment cost 

Total production cost 

Economic losses 

GHG emissions in tons 

Energy security 

and propose an overall ranking of scenario on a multi-criteria basis, using a 

Analytical Network Process (ANP) instrument, to be validated by AfDB. The Energy 

team will examine the selected investment program and extract the generation and 

transmission projects which meet the criteria to qualify as regional and present them 

as the Regional Investment Plan. 

3.2.3 The Regional Financing Equilibrium model 

An important consideration associated is the financial implication of the selected 

optimum scenario and the identification of its sources of financing in generic terms 

(specific sources of financing are project specific). The Regional Financing 

equilibrium model will test alternative investment financing plans (using the optimized 

capital investment plan as an input, complemented with the Access investment 

program, and examining alternative combinations of donor financing, government 

financing, private sector financing and sector financing). The model will proceed to 

calculate the power sector long term cash flow requirement to contribute to capital 

investment and service the debt (public and private). Finally, it will evaluate the 

average tariff level needed to ensure the financial viability of the selected investment 

program and the tariff needed to ensure the financial viability of the Regional 

Investment Program. 


20



Power sectors creditworthiness Assessment 

Drawing on the energy sector creditworthiness assessment methodology developed 

by PPIAF for selected African countries 11 , the Energy team will prepare, for all the 

countries for which data is available, a country energy sector creditworthiness 

assessment brief providing a preliminary assessment of the sector creditworthiness 

and main issues to be addressed to allow it to be able to participate in regional 

power exchanges and in regional investment projects. 

3.3 Interaction with Stakeholders 

The Energy team will deploy three main tools for consultation and consensus 

building: (i) Direct consultation with stakeholders; (ii) periodical workshops for 

presenting draft conclusions; and (iii) virtual consultations on policies and obstacles 

to the implementation of regional energy programs. 

Direct consultation with AfDB and RECs/Power Pools on the structure of the 

Score Cards for : 

the assessment of the alignment of their energy strategies with the 

requirements for the development of regional projects and the formulation of a 

Regional Strategy for Energy aligned with UA Regional priorities (September 

2010); and 

the evaluation of the institutional framework and sector creditworthiness at 

country level (September 2010). 

Direct consultation with AfDB and RECs/Power Pools on the scenarios to be 

utilized for the Regional Plan, including demand projections, fuel price projections, 

CO2 value, lists of candidate projects, etc.. (September 2010) followed by a 

follow-up consultation of the results of the optimization (November 2010). 

Organization of a web site for virtual consultation on policies diagnostic and 

proposed revisions (September 2010) 

Workshop on the diagnostic on the strategies at REC and national level and 

measures to be considered to improve REC and countries energy strategies to 

facilitate energy regional integration; benchmarking of strategies with regions with 

successful regional programs (December 2010). 

Workshop at the end of Phase 1 including presentation of conclusions on 

integration policies, draft technically optimized Outline of Regional Energy 

Program. 

Direct consultation with donors and the private sector on obstacles to 

implementation of Regional Program, including financing (February 2011). 

Workshop on presentation of the revised Regional Energy Erogram and identified 

obstacles to implementation including reporting on creditworthiness issues and 

benchmarking of the power sector of selected important potential importers and 

11 PPIAF has developed a methodology for assessing the creditworthiness of Sub-national entities and 

highlighting measures needed to improve it to come closer to investment grade under the Sub National 

Technical Assistance (SNTA) program, which will be used, under a simplified format for African 

countries which will participate in Regional energy projects, and will have to present acceptable levels 

of creditworthiness. 


21



exporters with countries which have been successful in attracting financing for 

regional projects (April 2011). 

Direct consultation with the RECs and selected countries (potential large exporters 

or importers) on the list of regional priority energy projects (June 2011). 

Direct consultation on full Implementation Plan for Regional Energy Strategies and 

Regional Energy Projects (investment, trade facilitation and capacity building). 

SWOT analysis applied to selected large regional energy projects (July 2011) 

Workshop at the end of Phase 2. 

4.DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF TASKS TO BE 

UNDERTAKEN 

Regional energy project is a project which requires multi-country cooperation for: 

Inputs (shared water basin, trans-country gas pipeline) 

Facility (transmission line or pipeline crossing at least one border, plant straddling 

border), 

Outputs shared between several countries 

And large projects which may affect indirectly regional energy exchanges 

because of their size. 

4.1 Task 1.1. Review and situation analysis of regional and 

continental policies and strategies 

4.1.1 Task 1.1.1 Analysis of Policies and Strategies 

In general, the RECs have broadly consistent policies articulated for electricity 

around integration for sharing the benefits of economies of scales from large power 

projects, continuity of transmission lines, coordinated dispatch, development of 

regional technical standards and facilitation of electricity trade, and with regard to 

renewable energy, access and the environment. There are regional differences, 

though, regarding the instruments favored by each REC and Power Pool for policy 

implementation, such as the level of involvement in the establishment of a 

competitive power market or the development of a Regional Regulatory entity. The 

task will analyze and compare the policies of the various RECs/Power Pools as of 

2010 following the format given in Annex 4. 

The Energy team will first benchmark each REC/Power Pool policy for the energy 

sector against NEPAD’s priorities. For this sub-task, the Energy team will develop a 

specific framework to allow the comparison. The framework will include two sections: 

the first section will list a number of priorities (to be completed in consultation with the 

client). The second section of the framework will capture in qualitative terms the 

specificity of each REC/Power Pool which may not be captured in a “closed” 

benchmarking table. 

This sub-task will lead to the preparation of a complete set of charts listing for each 

REC/Power Pool its policy objectives and performance indicators. 


22



4.1.2 Task 1.1.2 Assessment of the level of achievement of policy 

objectives 

Following a methodology consistent with the approach used by the 2003 STAP for 

the energy sector, the Energy team will assess the performance of each REC/Power 

Pool in the energy sector regarding their capacity to influence national energy 

policies and reform agenda in member countries to promote their policy objectives, to 

coordinate energy sector planning between the regional and national level and to 

catalyze/implement regional energy projects. The Energy team will in particular 

review progress with harmonization of regulations and technical standards within the 

REC countries, transparency in terms and conditions of regional exchanges of 

energy (energy observatories). 

4.1.3 Task 1.1.3 Causal analysis of level of achievement 

This task will present the reasons why some RECs have performed well compared to 

their objectives, successfully influenced policies of their member countries, 

succeeded in harmonizing regional and national planning, built consensus around 

regional projects, and made good progress in implementing the STAP objectives, 

and why others have met with implementation problems. 

The analysis will seek to separate the causes: 

related to country situation, for example, energy pricing policy, payment discipline 

in the power sector, governance and business climate as measures by the World 

Bank Investment Climate Assessment (ICAs) for the energy sector; and 

related to the performance of the RECs/Power Pools themselves, including their 

mode of governance and their respective convening/consensus building capacity. 

In a second sub-task, particular attention will be applied to the analysis of the political 

economy of regional energy project development as a determining factor of success 

or failure. The analysis will be prepared following the Problem Driven Governance 

and Political Economy Analysis (PGPEA) methodology developed in 2009 by OECD. 

This specificity of the proposed approach is to apply the political economy approach 

to answer specific questions, such as: “Why is South Africa limiting its electricity 

imports under the SAPP?”. 

In a third sub-task, the Energy team will benchmark the RECs performance in the 

energy sector with selected regional energy sector integration schemes worldwide 

(including SEE in Southern Europe, SIEPAC in Central America, GCC in the Arabic 

peninsula, GMS in East Asia) and compare their achievements in terms of 

institutional development and impact on the ground. 

4.2 Task 1.2 Review and situation analysis of regional 

infrastructure for Energy. 

The review will cover: 

regional energy transport (gas transport projects such as WAGP and 

Mozambique-South Africa gas pipeline, and electricity transmission projects such 

as the Inga-Zambia transmission line, the Nigeria-Ghana interconnection, the 

Tunisia-Algeria-Morocco Spain-Italy interconnection etc.), 


23



regional trading projects (mainly in the electricity sector, for the development of 

regional markets at the REC level, such as the SAPP and the WAPP), 

regional energy production investment projects for meeting the demand of more 

than one country (Inga, EGL/SINELAC, Felou etc..). 

The analysis will also review regional energy projects explicitly included in the STAP 

or in the priority lists of the RECs. 

A challenge will be to obtain suitable and complete information to describe each 

regional project. The Energy team proposes to use first the documentation listed in 

the Terms of Reference, existing reviews of regional projects by NEPAD (the STAP), 

recent ESMAP Case Studies on regional integration schemes, the 2005 WEC report 

on Regional Integration in Africa, Appraisal documents and Completion Reports of 

AfDB and the World Bank. In addition, direct information will be sought from the 

Power Pools as well as staff from selected utilities through direct contact. There is a 

concern that the Energy team may not be able to document all regional projects to 

the same level of detail. The support of NEPAD and AfDB will be important to 

facilitate access by the Energy team to the information needed. 

4.2.1 Task 1.2.1: Define a standardized template 

For both existing projects and projects under development, a standardized template 

will be used, drawing on the model given in Annex 4. 

4.2.2 Task 1.2.2 Review of existing infrastructures 

The first sub-task will be the identification of all energy transport, trading and 

production projects with a regional purpose. As many power transmission projects 

may have a dual purpose, serving domestic needs as well as facilitating regional 

exchanges, the list will be extended to include not only purely regional energy 

transport or production projects, but also projects which contribute significantly to 

regional exchanges (such as the reinforcement of the Ghana domestic transmission 

system which contributed to the reinforcement of the WAPP system). 

The second sub-task will be to evaluate each regional energy project in terms of 

impact, performance, financial sustainability, environmental impact, effectiveness of 

management and governance, using the format given in Annex 4. Particular 

attention will be devoted to documenting the completed regional projects which were 

part of the STAP. 

Under this task, the Energy team will produce a data base including all regional 

projects for which documentation has been obtained. A GIS software will also be 

used to locate visually regional energy projects in Africa and at the sub-regional level. 

4.2.3 Task 1.2.3 Inventory of infrastructures under execution or 

preparation 

The first sub-task will be to establish the list of projects to be considered as projects 

under preparation and the list of project at concept development stage, following the 

classification presented in Section 3.1 above. Only projects past pre-feasibility stage 


24



will be considered as projects under preparation. The others will be considered as 

under development. 

The second sub-task will be to populate the data base of regional energy projects 

under implementation, preparation or at conceptual stage following the templates 

given in Annex 4. As it is too early to evaluate the impact, success or failure of 

projects which have not been completed, the emphasis will be placed on how each 

project integrates or contributes to the regional and continental objectives detailed 

under Task 1.1.1. 

At completion of this task, the client will be presented with a structured analysis of 

projects under preparation, what regional objective they serve most and what are the 

characteristics of the regional projects which serve best the regional and continental 

energy agenda. A GIS software will be used to locate geographically energy projects 

under execution and preparation. 

4.2.4 Task 1.2.4 Detailed analysis of selected successful/failed 

regional energy sector investment 

From the investments presented under Task 1.2.2, a set of completed regional 

investment will be singled out for detailed analysis. 

The objective of this analysis will be to highlight the main factors explaining the 

success or failure of regional and continental infrastructure projects. The analysis will 

cover, among others: 

the possible gaps between budgets and actual cost, between original schedule 

and actual commissioning date; 

the factors that caused such gaps; 

the financial sustainability of the selected regional investments; 

the actual environmental impact of the investment compared to initially evaluated 

impact 

The expected outcome of this task is to draw lessons from the past investment in 

order to identify the main risks and the parameters leading to success or failure. 

4.3 Task 1.3 Establishment of the outlook and program for 

the future and identification of Challenges 

Under this task, the Energy team will: 

Derive from a continental vision a set of parameters driving the demand for 

energy; 

Present under the guidance of the Panel of Experts, a set of energy sector 

outlooks for Africa at the continental and regional levels; and 

Develop Regional plans for investment, energy trade facilitation and capacity 

building. 


25



4.3.1 Task 1.3.1 Initial vision and scenarios 

Under this task, the Energy team will interact with the Panel of Experts to produce a 

limited set of key drivers for the future development of the energy sector demand in 

Africa at the country, regional level and continental levels. 

The first sub-task will be to agree, with a wide participation of stakeholders, on the 

main drivers of energy (electricity and traditional fuels) demand, which will include at 

country level GDP growth, population growth (and number of households), gridbased 

access rate, future price trend, fuel price projections, growth of urban centers, 

prospects for development of new world-scale natural resources in Africa, etc. 

The second sub-task will be to convene a specific workshop to propose a set of 

scenarios for the key parameters determining the future strategy and investment 

programs for the energy sector at regional and continental levels. 

The third sub-task will be to validate the methodology for converting the global 

parameters into energy demand projections. The actual energy demand will take into 

account presently suppressed demand, and affordability constraints. The Energy 

team proposes to proceed in three steps: 

firstly, preparing global energy demand projections for Africa, at the continental 

and regional level converting the key parameters into a set of long term 

projections for each scenario; 

secondly use the model MARKAL developed by the IEA to convert global energy 

demand into long term energy scenarios.; 

thirdly, select a planning model to prepare optimal investment programs for the 

sector for each retained projection scenarios. 

The Energy team will organize a Validation Workshop, as requested by the Terms of 

Reference, to validate the methodological approach, select the most promising 

scenarios, discuss the model for the conversion of the scenarios into energy demand 

and supply, and brief participants on the MARKAL model for validation. The 

participants in the workshops will be the NEPAD/AU staff, REC representatives, 

AfDB and World Bank staff and selected international experts in prospective and 

energy planning. 

The fourth sub-task will be the preparation of an Outlook corresponding to the 

preferred demand scenarios using the demand and planning instruments validated at 

the workshop. 

By the end of this task, a limited set of alternative Outlooks for the energy sector at 

continental and regional level will be tabled, after validation by the workshop. 

4.3.2 Task 1.3.2 Completing data collection for programming 

The Energy team will complete the collection of the technical coefficients and 

parameters needed for the preparation of optimized sector development plans for 

each of the retained scenarios. The Energy team will upload the parameters 

collected by the WAPP, SAPP, CAPP, EAPP and COMELEC for the preparation of 

their own plans, updated as needed and completed with data from Libya and Egypt 

to the extent the parameters for these systems are not included in the sub-regional 

projections. 


26



A second sub-task will be to complete and update the data base of candidate 

projects, particularly regional projects, drawing on the lists of the regional Pools, 

NEPAD, STAP, etc… 

4.3.3 Task 1.3.3 Preparing alternative investment programs for the 

selection of preferred scenarios 

Under this task, and based on the selected Outlook for the energy sector validated in 

the workshop under Task 1.3.1, the Energy team will present a number of 

documented trade-offs for the consideration of the client, including, but not 

exclusively: 

Low Carbon option versus a least cost option. The Low Carbon option will set 

continental and regional emission and renewable energy goals for 2040 and 

present the implications in terms of technological choices, regional policies and 

investment priorities. 

an Accelerated Access versus a lower access development option: the 

accelerated access option will require the connection of a larger number of high 

cost consumers in rural area in particular and generate a higher demand growth 

rate and therefore, more investment. 

a Free Trade option versus a national energy security option: if no limit is put on 

the share of imports of energy consumed, some countries would rely extensively 

on regional trade for their energy supply. On the other hand, if countries decide to 

set an upper limit on energy imports in order to reduce their supply risk, there will 

be less regional energy trade. 

The Energy team will evaluate the trade-offs of alternative continental and regional 

policies in terms of economic, social and environmental costs. 

4.3.4 Task 1.3.4 Preparing the outlines of programs for regional 

energy trade facilitation and capacity building 

The Energy team will develop specific programs covering institutional, technical, 

financial and regulatory aspects of regional energy trade (the regional transmission 

system development aspects will be handled under the regional investment program 

under Task 1.3.3). Several alternative programs will be developed for the 

RECs/Power Pools and at the continental level of AU/NEPAD, depending on the 

envisaged level of devolution of authority from the national regulators to the Pools, 

the willingness to extend the scope of the Pools to developing regional infrastructure, 

and the interest in developing a real pooling approach to power trading. 

The institutional aspects will include revisions to the scope, missions, governance 

of the Pools. 

The technical aspects will cover steps to move toward unified standards and 

synchronization of systems. 

The financial aspects will propose an action plan to extend the mission of the 

Power Pools from administrative and regulatory functions to a mission of 

implementing selected regional investment and acquiring the necessary 

creditworthiness. 


27



The regulatory aspects will examine whether and how the function of the Pools 

regarding sector regulation, dispatch, regional trade monitoring, pool trading could 

be developed. 

The selected programs for regional trade facilitation will be supported by long term 

capacity building programs tailored to facilitate the implementation of the regional 

programs for energy trade facilitation. 

4.3.5 Task 1.3.5 Analysis of choices and challenges for Regional 

Investment, trade facilitation and capacity building programs 

Following the preparation of alternative investment (Task 1.3.3 above), trade 

facilitation and capacity building programs (Task 1.3.4 above), the Energy team will: 

Characterize each alternative with regard to their cost, environmental impact, 

social aspects, development of regional trade of energy, contribution to energy 

security and financial feasibility; 

Propose a multi-criteria analysis based on the Analytical Network Process (ANP) 

to facilitate the evaluation of trade-offs (particularly between economic costs, 

environmental impact, implementation risk, national sovereignty) between 

alternative programs for decision-makers; 

Prepare a risk analysis for the most attractive scenarios and programs in terms of 

exogenous factors (availability of financing and international fuel prices for 

example), and regional risks (level of demand). For Africa and each sub-region, 

the Energy team will evaluate the risks which would result if the reality differs 

significantly from the selected scenario for the future and investment are engaged 

on the basis of the selected scenario (flexibility of investment programs). 

4.4 Task 2.1 Formulation of the Strategic Framework 

Based on the analytical work under Tasks 1 and on the evaluation of the alternative 

scenarios developed under the Outlook task (Task 1.3.1), the Client will select a 

preferred Strategic Framework, which will be developed in two stages: In a first 

stage, the Energy team will prepare an Outline of the Strategic framework, following 

the structure presented in Annex 4. In a second stage, after validation of the Outline, 

the Energy team will develop a full Strategic Framework. 

4.4.1 Task 2.1.1 Drafting Outline on Strategic Framework 

The Energy team will follow the methodology detailed in Annex 4 and ensure that all 

the questions and aspects listed are covered. 

4.4.2 Task 2.1.2 Consultation on Outline 

The role of the Energy team will be to organize a broad consultation to obtain feedback 

on the Outline of the Strategic Framework and validation before engaging in the 

drafting of the complete Strategic framework. The Energy team will: 


28



Organize a broad virtual consultation through internet communication and posting 

of the Outline on the PIDA Website in order to get a feed-back from civil society 

and the community of stakeholders interested in the energy sector in Africa, 

including institutional and private parties. 

Present the outline of the Strategic Framework in a workshop involving the 

Regional institutions and energy sector donors. 

The Energy team will play the role of coordinator for the virtual consultation and of 

facilitator in the various working groups during the workshops. In addition, the Energy 

team will prepare minutes of the workshops and structure the comments and 

contributions received during the consultation. 

The Energy team will prepare proceedings of the workshop and of the virtual 

consultation and post them on the PIDA Web site for public consultation. In addition, 

the Energy team will provide support for the preparation of press releases, press 

books and briefings as needed. 

4.4.3 Task 2.1.3 Drafting the Strategic Framework 

The second task will be the drafting of the Strategic Framework document. The 

Energy team proposes, subject to validation by the client, to follow the outline given 

in Annex 4. By the end of this task, a complete draft Strategic Framework will be 

available, based on parameters and methodologies validated with stakeholders. 

4.5 Task 2.2 Formulation of the Energy Regional 

Investment Program 

The continental and regional energy sector development program will be prepared 

taking into account continental, regional and national priorities as spelled out in the 

Energy Strategic Framework. It will cover the 2010-2040 period as a number of 

projects of continental or regional significance are likely to be large hydro projects, or 

large gas pipeline, which have a gestation period of up to 10 years: as a result, only 

few new continental projects are likely to be operational and to produce benefits 

before 2020. 

4.5.1 Task 2.2.1 Preparation of an Outline Program for the 

Development of Regional and Continental Energy Infrastructure 

The Outline Regional Program for Energy will be the program selected under Task 

1.3.5 above. It will include a list of generation and transmission projects, their cost 

evaluation and their scheduling as part of the overall long term investment program 

(including national projects). While the investment program examined under Task 

1.3.5 above will cover all generation and transmission projects in the Region, the 

projects included in the Outline Regional Program will include only projects which are 

regional, based on the definition given above. 

In the preparation of the Outline, it will be taken into account that most RECs have 

already developed their own Long Term Least Cost Development Plan. The Energy 

team will verify that the regional and continental energy projects retained under the 

energy component of the Program for the Development of Regional and Continental 


29



Infrastructure (the Regional Program for Energy) are consistent with the Least Cost 

Plan of the RECs. 

At the national level, the Energy team will ensure that the projects considered under 

the Program for the Development of Regional and Continental Infrastructure for the 

energy sector are integrated in the national energy sector development plan, in order 

to avoid investment decisions at the national level contradicting the Regional 

Program. 

4.5.2 Task 2.2.2 Consultation on Outline Regional Energy Program 

The consultation on the Outline Regional Energy Program will differ from the 

consultation on the Strategic framework, as the purpose of the consultation will be to 

reach a consensus with RECs/Power Pools and the main countries on the scope of 

the Regional Energy Program, and to check that there is an agreement on the priority 

level and characteristics of the selected Regional Energy Projects. The consultation 

will have two steps: 

The presentation of the process, results and variants of the Regional Energy 

Program, led by the Energy team jointly with AU/NEPAD, to the RECs/Power 

Pools, selected countries and the main donors; and 

A bilateral dialogue with the RECs/Power Pools on the priority projects of 

relevance to their respective systems. 

At the Outline stage, the program will include the list of generation and transmission 

projects, their estimated cost and technical characteristics, as well as their optimal 

time scheduling, but not a detailed description of each project. 

4.5.3 Task 2.2.3 Preparation of a Draft Program for the development 

of Regional and Continental Energy infrastructure 

The Draft program will start from the list of Regional Energy Projects included in the 

Outline prepared under Task 2.3.1. It will consider each Regional Energy Project 

retained under the Outline and approved by the RECs/Pools and the main countries 

involved and prepare a Note describing the project to a level of detail sufficient for the 

preparation of terms of reference for Pre-feasibility work (if no prefeasibility study 

exists), on the understanding that the task of the Energy team will not include the 

preparation of full terms of reference for the feasibility studies. 

4.6 Task 2.3 Formulation of a draft implementation 

strategy and processes 

The strategy to support the implementation of the Regional and Continental energy 

infrastructure program, will be designed in close coordination with the AU, NEPAD, 

and donors (ADB and other multi-lateral and bilateral agencies, with a special 

emphasis on agencies with a strength in structuring large projects and designing 

innovative financing structures). 

The inputs will be: 

the Strategic framework; 

the development programme; iii) the recommendations based on the causal 

analysis; and 


30



lessons learnt in project implementation evaluated under Task 1.1 above and a 

risk analysis specific to regional energy projects. 

The implementation strategy and processes will distinguish between the 

implementation of Regional Energy projects of a “normal” size by continental 

standards, and a few special regional projects which are special by their size or 

strategic importance, such as Inga. Priority measures, resources and tools will be 

identified for Regional energy projects in general, and for each of the special 

projects. It will specifically address (i) the mobilization of financing; (ii) the 

implementation capacity and mechanism; and (iii) consensus building between 

countries and RECs. 

4.6.1 Task 2.3.1 Formulation of a preliminary draft implementation 

strategy 

The implementation strategy will aim at mobilizing the RECs, utilities and donors to 

work jointly on the implementation of the Plan. This strategy will be organized around 

the following pillars: 

Building a consensus for priority implementation of the Regional Energy Strategic 

Framework and Program and agreeing that alternative projects are to be 

considered only if priority institutional development programs under the Strategic 

Framework and projects in the Plan cannot be realistically implemented. 

Proposing a facility for implementing the capacity building aspects of the Strategic 

Framework and for project preparation12. Under PIDA, a consensus amongst 

donors to earmark and pool resources for the implementation of the Framework 

and the Plan will be sought. The pooling of resources for preparation would not 

only increase the funds available for this activity, but also raise the level of 

commitment of the members to common goals and investment programs. 

Sketching suitable financing and risk mitigation instruments which would meet the 

expectation of the financial market and private investors specifically for regional 

projects. 

Encouraging donors and financiers to maximize co-financing and financial 

leveraging of regional and continental projects and to operate as a group, where 

all members share proportionately in each project, preferably to each donor 

focusing on preferred projects. 

Identifying country specific reforms that would improve the creditworthiness of 

utilities for supporting regional energy projects. 

4.6.2 Task 2.3.2 Formulation of a preliminary draft implementation 

processes 

For the implementation of the Strategic Framework and the Plan, the Energy team 

recommends that a PIDA Energy group be formally established. 

The brief of the group would be to: 

12 The preparation of feasibility, environmental and social assessments and other preparatory studies for large 

regional and continental projects, as well as for institutional developments under the Strategic Framework will require 

substantial resources (development costs may amount to 3 to 8% of the total project engineering cost). A weakness 

in the financing of preparatory work for regional or continental studies, technical assistance or project has in the past 

been the fragmentation of the contribution of the donors. 


31



agree on priority actions to be undertaken under the Strategic Framework and the 

Plan in the period 2010-2015 and on an allocation among members of the 

responsibilities for each action; 

coordinate the actions to be engaged at PIDA and REC levels and at the 

national/individual donor level; 

act as developer of priority projects included in the Strategic Framework and in the 

Plan and to provide seed money for the development activities; 

maintain permanent contact with civil society, and also international fora where 

energy issues at the continental level are discussed. 

The Energy team will propose a process for assigning the PIDA Energy Program to a 

Regional Execution Agency, under authority of RECs and respective Power pool, 

once the Program is accepted and entered in force. 

4.6.3 Task 2.3.3 Integration of Phase II report and presentation 

The first step for the implementation of the Strategic Framework and the Plan for the 

energy sector will be to organize the presentation to a wide audience of both 

documents in final form. The event where the documents will be presented would be 

also the instance where the PIDA Group may be launched. The Energy team will 

present a business plan covering the next five years for the PIDA Group. 

5.WORKPLAN AND TIMELINE 

As stated in the general part of the report, the proposed time line would be as 

follows: 

Submission of Inception Report: July 5th 2010 

Kick Off workshop: Week of 29th July 

Phase 1: Validation Workshop: 23rd September 2010 

Submission of Phase 1 report: 25th January 2010 

Phase 2: four strategic sector workshops: 15th April2011 

Phase 2: report: 15th July 2011 

Phase 3 report: 20th November 2011 

The scheduling of each task is presented hereafter in the form of GANNT Charts for 

Phase I and Phase II. 


32




33



6.HUMAN RESOURCES DEPLOYMENT 

6.1 Team and expertise 

A team of four experts has been mobilized for the study, with a total input of 36 man 

months. The team has the full range of expertise required: 

Energy Leader 

Energy Strategy Expert 

Energy Programme Expert 

Energy Model Expert 

6.2 Team organization 


34



6.3 Task assignments 

The assignment of the experts of the Energy team to the tasks describes above is 

given in the table below. 


35



TRANSPORT SECTION 



1. BACKGROUND, ISSUES AND CHALLENGES..............................1 

1.1 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................... 1 

1.2 TRANSPORT IN AFRICA ................................................................. 1 

1.2.1 Corridors and transnational roads .......................................................2 

1.2.2 Rail infrastructure .........................................................................4 

1.2.3 Maritime transport infrastructure (ports) ..............................................4 

1.2.4 Inland waterway/lake transport infrastructure .......................................5 

1.2.5 Air transport infrastructure ..............................................................5 

1.2.6 Transport facilitation .....................................................................6 

1.3 SECTOR CHALLENGES .................................................................. 6 

2. THE SCOPE AND SPECIFIC OBJECTIVE OF THE PIDA STUDY FOR 

THE TRANSPORT SECTOR.................................................9 

2.1 SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES .................................................................. 9 

2.2 SECTOR-SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES........................................................ 9 

2.3 TIME HORIZONS CONSIDERED ....................................................... 10 

2.4 RISK ASSESSMENT ..................................................................... 10 

2.5 TRANSPORT DATA COLLECTION STRATEGY ...................................... 11 

3. METHODOLOGY, ANALYTICAL APPROACH AND DETAILED TASKS 

DESCRIPTION.............................................................. 12 

3.1 DIAGNOSTIC AND IN DEPTH ANALYSIS OF THE SECTOR (PHASE 1)........... 12 

3.2 REVIEW AND ANALYSIS OF REGIONAL POLICIES OF TRANSPORT AND 

TRANSIT (TASK A1) ................................................................... 12 

3.2.1 Background ............................................................................... 12 

3.2.2 Analytical Approach for policies review .............................................. 16 

3.2.3 Data identification and collection strategy .......................................... 17 

3.2.4 Interaction with the specific stakeholders ........................................... 18 

3.3 REVIEW OF REGIONAL INFRASTRUCTURES FOR TRANSPORT (TASK A2) .... 18 

3.3.3 Background ............................................................................... 18 

3.3.4 Analytical approach for transport Infrastructure ................................... 18 

3.3.5 Tools to be developed for the transport infrastructure sector.................... 21



3.4 ESTABLISHMENT OF AN OUTLOOK FOR THE FUTURE TRANSPORT 

INFRASTRUCTURE (TASK B1)........................................................ 21 

3.4.1 Background ............................................................................... 21 

3.4.2 Analytical approach to develop an outlook for the future transport 

infrastructure ............................................................................ 22 

3.4.3 Tools to be developed for the analysis ............................................... 26 



3.5 ANALYSIS OF CHOICES AND CHALLENGES FOR TRANSPORT 

INFRASTRUCTURE (TASK B2)........................................................ 27 

3.5.1 Background ............................................................................... 27 

3.5.2 Analytical approach for transport modal choice .................................... 27 

3.5.3 Tools to be developed for the analysis of choice and challenges................. 30 

3.6 PREPARATION OF AN OUTLINE PROGRAMME FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF 

REGIONAL AND CONTINENTAL TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURES (TASK B3) 30 

3.6.1 Background ............................................................................... 30 

3.6.2 Analytical framework for the outline program preparation ....................... 31 

3.6.3 Tools to be developed for the outline program for transport infrastructure ... 31 

3.6.4 Preparation of the Phase I report ..................................................... 32 

3.7 FORMULATION OF A PRELIMINARY DRAFT STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK, 

INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME AND IMPLEMENTATION 

STRATEGY FOR THE TRANSORT SECTOR (PHASE 2) ............................ 32 

3.7.1 Preparation and holding of transport sector workshop (Task 1) .................. 32 

3.7.2 Formulation of a preliminary draft strategic framework (including sector 

policies) ................................................................................... 33 

3.7.3 Formulation of a preliminary draft infrastructure development programme ... 34 

3.7.4 Formulation of a preliminary draft implementation strategy and process ...... 35 

4. WORK BREAKDOWN...................................................... 36 

4.1 DIAGNOSTIC AND IN DEPTH ANALYSIS OF THE SECTOR (PHASE 1)........... 36 

4.1.1 Review and analysis of Regional policies of Transport and Transit (task A1) ... 36 

4.1.2 Review of Regional Infrastructures for Transport (task A2) ....................... 36 

4.1.3 Establishment of an outlook for the future Transport Infrastructure (task B1). 37 

4.1.4 Analysis of choices and challenges for Transport Infrastructure (task B2) ...... 38 

4.1.5 Preparation of an outline programme for the development of regional and 

continental transport infrastructures (Task B3)..................................... 39

4.2 FORMULATION OF A PRELIMINARY DRAFT STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK, 

INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME AND IMPLEMENTATION 

STRATEGY FOR THE TRANSORT SECTOR (PHASE 2) ............................ 39 

4.2.1 Organization and conduct of workshops.............................................. 39 


policies) ................................................................................... 39 

4.2.3 Formulation of a preliminary draft infrastructure development programme ... 39 

4.2.4 Formulation of a preliminary draft implementation strategy and process ...... 39 

5. WORK PLAN AND TIMELINE............................................. 40 

6. HUMAN RESOURCES DEPLOYMENT.................................... 42 

6.1 EXPERTISE OF THE TEAM ............................................................ 42 

6.2 TASKS ASSIGNMENTS ................................................................. 42


INCEPTION REPORT/ TRANSPORT SECTION 

THE TRANSPORT SECTOR 

1. BACKGROUND, ISSUES AND CHALLENGES 

1.1 Introduction 

The transport sector part of the study will comprise the infrastructure and associated services 

of: 

roads, 

railways, 

air transportation 

maritime ports/trade facilitation/customs, 

navigable waterways and lakes transport 

Pipelines (for the transport of POL locally consumed) 

Intermodal transport 

Intermodal transport for passengers mainly refers to rail/road and rail/air intermodality but 

rivers and lakes transport may also combine usefully with other land modes. For freight, the 

rail/road/river-lake/seaports intermodality is of the utmost importance to improve regional and 

international trade for all countries, landlocked or not in combination with an improvement of 

the entire transport logistics chain, including customs and IT components. 

1.2 Transport in Africa 

Transport infrastructure development is a key instrument to facilitate trade, strengthen 

economic relations, increase peoples’ mobility and hence enhance the countries’ socioeconomic 

development, reduce poverty reduction and increase the regional and interregional 

integration of African countries. Also since many of the countries and their potential 

trade are of a small-scale, regional integration is essential to create larger markets and justify 

infrastructure investments, 

Transport services on the African continent are inefficient as demonstrated by the high 

operating costs, poor knowledge of operating costs, poor operating practices, poor routine 

maintenance of transport infrastructure, etc. These problems have led to the high transport 

prices paid by shippers in the region. In addition, Africa has 15 landlocked countries and their 

transportation needs to the seaports are not adequately provided for in the current 

continental and regional transport/logistics system. Furthermore, cumbersome administrative 

procedures, poor management practices and poor facilities within the transit countries are 

detrimental to the development of the international trade of the landlocked countries. Port 

capacity constraints and operating issues also affect trade to and from the coastal countries. 


1



Intra-African trade linkages are still very weak. Intra-African trade is less than 10 percent of 

total African exports 1 and rural access to roads is only 34% 2 , a dramatic score for trade and 

more generally for the economic development of the concerned populations. The principal 

obstacles to trade include among others national and international trade policies (barriers), 

insufficient transport infrastructure, quality standards and maintenance, political instability, 

underground transport economy and its illegal practices. 

These obstacles result in a transport service cost that is almost twice as high as the world 

average: 12.6 per cent compared to 6.1 per cent for the world average 3 , worsening the 

difficult situation of African consumers and producers. Landlocked countries’ transport costs 

can be up to 50 per cent higher than those of coastal countries 4 . 

The transport/logistics cost of goods in sub-saharan Africa is one of the highest in the world 5 , 

making African products less competitive than foreign ones (even in Africa itself around its 

ports). Also transport prices for most African landlocked countries range from 15 to 20 

percent of the import costs. This is approximately two to three times more than in most 

developed countries. 

1.2.1 Corridors and transnational roads 

Africa has about 2.09 million km of roads of which 21.17% is paved. The distribution of road 

lengths by sub-region is as follows: 

North Africa 347,451 km 

West Africa 434,910 km 

Central Africa 186,471 km 

East Africa 476,558 km 

Southern Africa 574,485 km (this figure excludes South Africa) 

The continent has about 55,000 km of transnational roads: Source :AfDB – ECA 

TNR 1: Cairo-Dakar (8640 km) 

TNR 2: Alger-Lagos (4 500 km) 

TNR 3: Tripoli-Windoek (9 610 km) 

TNR 4: Cairo-Gaborone (8 640 km) 

TNR 5: Dakar-N’djamena (4 500 km) 

TNR 6: N’djamena-Djibouti (4 220 km) 

TNR 7: Dakar-Lagos (4010 km) 

TNR 8: Lagos-Mombasa (6 260 km) 

1 African Statistical Yearbook 2009 (data 2007, table 3-7) 

2 

Against 90% in developing countries. Source: internet site of the Group AfDB, http://www.afdb.org/fr/topicssectors/sectors/infrastructure/ 

3 

UNCTAD, ‘Efficient Transport and Trade Facilitation to Improve Participation by Developing Countries in International Trade’, 

2003 

4 World Bank Economic Review. 15(3): 451–79, 2001 . 

5 As underlined by K.Y. Amoakowholed the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) in 1995-2005 at the rank of 

UN Under-Secretary-General. 


2



TNR 9: Beira-Lobito (3 520 km) 

The physical situation of road infrastructure has not changed significantly compared to the 

situation observed in 2000. The situation is still characterized by a network with a relatively 

low density (2.68 km per 1000 inhabitants) and is in an advanced stage of disrepair. In 

addition, there is a lack of physical continuity and there are disparities in the level of services 

along the regional roads, poor accessibility of rural areas to transport infrastructure and a 

lack of co-ordination in the management of the infrastructure. Also, the network is not utilized 

optimally because of the disparity in the rules and practices relating to inter-state transport 

and transit within the Union. 

The road infrastructure statistics in Africa show 6 that 65% of the missing links in the Trans- 

African Highway (TAH) network are situated in Central Africa. Of all existing sections, only 

one third is paved in this part of the continent. These issues indicate the particular difficulty 

that landlocked countries face in establishing international trade and transport. 

6State of Transport SectorDevelopment in Africa, African Union, April 2008. 


3



1.2.2 Rail infrastructure 

African railways consist mostly of single lines penetrating inland from the coastal seaports 

with few interconnections, except in South Africa. The average technical speeds of African 

railways are about 30 to 35 km/hr. Commercial speeds are a little lower. 

The most significant constraint on the railway system in Africa is the poor density of the lines. 

In its 2008 report, UNCTAD highlights the very low railway ratio of Africa with 2.5 km/km2 

compared to the world average of 23 km/km2. Even Southern Africa with the highest ratio is 

very low at 5.6km/km2, and all others lag with ratios between 1.2 (Central Africa) and 2.3 

(North Africa). 

Sixteen African countries do not have railway lines or sections of international lines. The 

national railway networks in Sub-Saharan Africa are mostly independent of each other, 

except the Eastern and Southern African rail systems, which are interconnected. Other 

African interconnected railways systems are those of Burkina Faso/Cote D'Ivoire, 

Senegal/Mali, and Ethiopia/Djibouti. 

As regards railway transport, there is hardly any development that has increased total 

passenger and freight transportation significantly on the continent. UIC statistics show that 

the overall performance in (ton-km/pax-km) has slightly decreased while the share in railway 

transport increased in other parts of the world. Despite several specific privatisation and 

concessioning actions, which may have caused local improvement, the rail mode in Africa 

has not been able to gain competitiveness compared to road transport. 

For the mining sector and its bulk exports, the rail mode remains an important instrument to 

develop business. New investment initiatives in freight traffic should hence relate to the 

development of mining activity and the transport of ore with heavy-loaded and long trains, 

opening the way to profitable activities and the attraction of private investors and operators. 

1.2.3 Maritime transport infrastructure (ports) 

Maritime ports play a vital role in the development of world trade and commerce as more 

than 90% of the world’s international trade passes through ports. Ports have a major impact 

on African development and the economy. The amount and type of cargo passing through a 

port located in one country is a good indicator of the state of the economy in that country and 

its hinterland. 

There are about 80 major ports/harbours around the continental coastline and many other 

specialized port facilities for fishing, tourism, etc. The berthing facilities available at each of 

these ports depend largely on the historical developments and the nature of trade generated 

by the port country and its hinterland. The majority of African ports have a mixture of facilities 

such as conventional berths, oil jetties, bulk berths, containers terminals etc. with the 

conventional berths predominating. 

The African ports have a share of only 3% in the worldwide container throughput 7 (figures 

from 2007). The largest throughput is for Egypt, which has shown a significant increase up to 

more than 4,7 million TEUs in 2007, being at the 12 th position of all developing countries. 

African runners up are Ivory Coast, Kenya and Ghana, with 500-600,000 TEUs in 2007 

(position 51, 52 and 53 of all developing countries). Other African ports, such as those in 

Tanzania, Sudan, Angola, and Djibouti have a throughput of less than 0,5 million TEU. More 

recent figures may show significant decreases due to the financial crisis. 

7 Review of Maritime Transport, UNCTAD 2008. 


4



Maritime ports facilitate international trade, although they are only a key in a chain of 

transport activities. Port facilitation in Africa leaves however some key issues for 

improvement, both technical (equipment) as in port management. Particularly as regards 

containerisation, African ports have lagged behind, while containerised transports formed the 

major source of growth of ports worldwide. 

Furthermore, crucial issues are the customs procedures and information technology that are 

presently insufficient in most African ports to contribute to corridor development, serving 

hinterland connections. 

The biggest development in multimodal transport in Africa during the last few years has been 

the establishment of Inland Container Depots (ICDs) serving landlocked countries. ICDs 

have developed rapidly in Africa, particularly in Eastern and Southern Africa, as inland port 

terminals in coastal or land-locked countries in the hinterland of one or more seaports. 

1.2.4 Inland waterway/lake transport infrastructure 

The main inland waterways in Africa are limited to four rivers namely: the Nile, Congo, Niger 

and the Zambezi Rivers and three lakes: Victoria, Tanganyika and Malawi. 

Africa’s inland waterways are a source of livelihood for millions of people and traditional 

channels of exchanges and communication. The challenges are to develop the regulatory 

framework and the capacity to maintain appropriate safety and security standards and to 

foster integration of lake and river shipping into multimodal transport chains through modern 

transhipment stations linking them with road and rail networks. 

The outcomes of the recent NEPAD studies on Infrastructure Development Gaps have 

identified the major constraints of inland waterways transport as follows: 

Poor safety and security due to lack of communication- and SAR (search and rescue) 

systems; 

Poor infrastructure at terminals; 

Difficulties arising from seasonal blockages caused by water weeds that often close inland 

waterways routes and terminals; and 

Lack of modern fleet to provide reliable transport services. 

The same report has proposed that strategic orientations to improve inland water services 

should revolve around: 

Improving and maintaining terminals of inland waterways; 

Introducing modern fleets; 

Upgrading the safety, security and environment of the inland waterways; and 

Harmonizing procedures and standards to improve their domestic and international traffic. 

1.2.5 Air transport infrastructure 

Air movement within Africa also shows physical and operational gaps; it offers few routes 

with few competitors. National capitals are connected to European cities, while it remains 

difficult to find frequent or reliable flight connections to other African cities. Also high fares 

remain a problem, with inter-African flights ranking among the most costly. Furthermore, the 

blacklisting of several African airliners for security faults has pushed the air transport sector 

deeper into crisis. 

The current stage of the African aviation sector hence continues to face serious development 

difficulties characterised by (i) the slow implementation of a liberalised pan–African aviation 


5



market (pending implementation of the Yamoussoukro Decision), (ii) a continued high 

accident rate and a general unsatisfactory level of security, (iii) the difficulty of many carriers 

in establishing adequate access to finance for the procurement of modern aircraft, and (iv) 

the increased shortage of qualified operational human resources 8 . 

African airlines managed to carry only 4.5% and 1.6% global passenger and cargo air traffic 

respectively in 2006. Most African airlines are small in size (fleet/capital) and are largely state 

owned (national flag carriers). They are heavily indebted with low productivity and poor 

management and high operating costs have hindered the potential for growth and the 

capacity of African airlines to cope with growing competition. There is however a small 

number of African airlines performing better than the general picture 9 . 

Consequently, there is a need to upgrade international airports and air navigation facilities to 

ICAO standards and recommended practices. In most African airports, work on rehabilitation 

of all facilities is not well attended to. 

1.2.6 Transport facilitation 

Besides the limitation of the physical infrastructure, transport development - in all modes of 

transport - there are also various problems in transport organisation, regulations, border 

control, road blocks, a lack of monitoring and control, etc. These issues will be dealt with in 

the first part of this study, focussing on transport policies and the relating constraints for 

transport development. 

1.3 Sector Challenges 

Effective regional and continental transport infrastructure development requires a strategic 

framework for project implementation, harmonisation of procedures and regulations, and 

long-term dedicated monitoring and asset management at national, regional and continental 

level. 

The NEPAD has set as one of the strategic objectives to promote regional integration 

through bridging the infrastructure gap by 10 : 

Reducing the costs and improving the quality of services; 

Increasing both public and private financial investment in transport infrastructure; 

Improving the maintenance of transport infrastructure assets; 

Removing formal and informal barriers to the movements of goods and people (among 

which waiting and slack times at cross-borders or in ports); and 

Supporting regional cooperation and the integration of markets for transport services. 

This development plan for efficient use of transport infrastructure provides Africa with an 

instrument to enhance trade, industrial development, mobility and hence the socio-economic 

development of the continent. 

8 Conclusions of AU Air Transport Forum, 2007 

9 African Union, Development of Air Transport in Africa, 2007. 

10 NEPAD Short Term Action Plan 2002 


6



The objectives of NEPAD are as follows 

Transport infrastructure links and nodes 

Properly complement and “interface” regional and continental modal networks 

to widen the access to the transport infrastructure and services for goods and 

passengers to secure convenient regional links 

Properly maintain and manage regional and continental networks 

Develop private financing of construction, maintenance and management of transport 

infrastructures 

Transport services for goods and passengers 

Improve transport security and safety 

Reduce origin-to-destination formal and informal costs 

Improve origin-to-destination efficiency (duration and services quality) 

Eliminate regulation barriers to regional movements and trade, 

Simplify and accelerate border-crossing procedures 

Develop competitiveness of transport services through private involvement and 

competition in transport and logistics services on the transport infrastructures. 

Environmental protection 

Optimise the transport system and multimodal solutions to minimise the impact on the 

environment of:infrastructure assets of construction works and transport operation 

Harmonisation institutional, regulatory and administrative frameworks 

Trade regulation and taxes on transports, customs and border-crossings of vehicles, 

goods and persons 

Technical standards of the transport infrastructure and equipment, including rolling stock 

Technical standards for the transport exploitation (e.g. maximum load) 

Transport safety and security regulation 

Licensing, legal obligations and taxes for the transport operators 

Taxes for transports 

Those challenges and expected recommendations shall cover all kind of actors of the 

regional transport systems and more particularly: 

Institutional bodies and regulators (including customs) 

Private and public investors 

Infrastructure suppliers (civil engineering and equipment) 

Infrastructure management bodies 

Transport operators 


7



Traders 

Passengers 

Goods producers 

Goods consumers 


8



2. THE SCOPE AND SPECIFIC OBJECTIVE OF THE PIDA 

STUDY FOR THE TRANSPORT SECTOR 

The transport sector for the purposes of this study will include passenger and goods 

transport in the following sub-sectors: air, road, rail, maritime, river-lake, pipeline as well as 

multimodal systems. 


The specific objectives of the study are to: 

Establish a strategic framework for the development of regional and continental Transport 

development infrastructures based on shared development vision, strategic objectives and 

sector policies; 

Establish a Transport infrastructure development program articulated around priorities 

established over the short, medium, and long- term horizons; 

Prepare a programme implementation strategy and processes; 

Prepare a Priority Action Plan (PAP) and financing options including measures for 

promoting, attracting and sustaining private sector participation in infrastructure 

development. 

2.2 Sector-specific objectives 

The Pida study will help to develop a common vision for transport among Africa development 

institutions and partners on the policy changes and institutional reforms needed to ensure 

that better maintenance and the expansion of physical capacity as well as better 

management resulting from institutional reforms and increase investments are effectively 

translated into better and cheaper services for all. 

Through the analysis of transport policies, recent infrastructure projects and the preparation 

of outlook, the PIDA study will provide strategic leadership by mobilizing political action and 

financial resources to secure completion of needed reforms and facilitate preparation and 

implementation of sector development programmes and projects by RECS and regional 

institutions. 

One important aspect of the study will be to find ways and means to enlarge the participation 

of the private sector both in operation of transport services and the financing of infrastructure 

through concession, BOT, maintenance and management contract etc; in particular for ports 

and air transport 

The Consultant considers that the implementation of soft programmes for the removal of 

regulatory and institutional bottleneck should be a priority for the transport sector in Africa; 

However these reforms should be complemented by the development of intermodal facilities 

and the reduction of the missing links. 

As specified in the TOR, the following Sector-specific objectives will be taken into account: 

Strengthening of the economic and social development of African regions and the 

continent, and their economic integration through trade and the movement of people and 

freight; 

Enhancement of Africa’s competitiveness at the global level ; 


9



Pursuance of efforts to open up regions and the continent, and implementation of the 

UN Almaty Programme of Action; 

Enhancement of the efficiency of physical transport infrastructures and associated 

services; 

Freight intermodality; 

Road, maritime and air transport safety and security; 

Single African Sky” (the Yamoussoukro Decision on the liberalization of African air 

transport); 

Environmental protection; and 

Harmonization of institutional and regulatory frameworks, and other administrative 

procedures. 

The Consultant will prepare a set of visions for Africa for the next 10, 20 and 30 years These 

visions will become the goals to be reached by the African continent. The transport team will 

conduct all the necessary studies and analyzes to ensure that the transport infrastructures 

and the relevant transport services are correctly developed and improved to satisfy the 

transport demand resulting from these economic developments. 

In particular, the PIDA study will analyze the role motor of transport infrastructures and 

transport services in economic growth and make sure that the proposed investments and soft 

measures that impact economic growth are included in the PIDA program. 

On the other hand, the transport team will ensure that the increase of the traffic demand 

resulting from the macro economic growth can be satisfied and that the transport sector does 

not become a bottleneck to the reaching of the vision. 

2.3 Time horizons considered 


proposal. For Transport Sector, longer time horizons could indeed be justified. 

The proposed time horizons, such as agreed upon during the meeting with the Panel of 

Experts on 17 June, are: 




The horizon 2040 is considered as the “planning horizon”, while 2020 and 2030 are more 

considered as “programming horizons” within a rolling planning process approach. Concrete 

short-term actions will already be considered on the basis of the NEPAD Short Term Action 

Plan (STAP). 

2.4 Risk Assessment 

The consultant does not anticipate any important risk in conducting this task, assuming that 

the necessary data can be obtained from the various stakeholders, in particular from the 

RECS. Nevertheless, there may be difficulties with some of the RECs in obtaining all relevant 

documents for various reasons. 


10



2.5 Transport data collection strategy 

The study will use as basis for the transport data, the impressive amount of data collected 

and analyzed by AICD. All the available data has been reviewed in details by the transport 

group and it is expected that the data being collected for the new countries now covered by 

AICD will be available in the coming weeks. 

The AICD studies related to regional transport infrastructure have also been reviewed and 

although less exhaustive that the national data, offer a very good base to start the review, in 

particular for air transport and ports. 

The Consultant will also use other sources of information such as: 

Sources of information will be among others: 

Official policy documents and websites 

Reports and proceedings of councils and development originations/-banks 

Existing project and study reports (among which those listed in Annex II of the ToR for 

Transport part of project and recent studies by team members for Eastern and Southern 

Africa) 

Data from the major transport organizations in Africa 

Available (inter-)national transport statistics 

International trade statistics (national, IMF, UN, EU) 

Customs data 

Economic reports and statistic 

Success and failure stories 

In order to implement a transport forecast model for regional traffic, the Consultant will need 

to collect data on present traffic at border post for passengers and freight along with the 

trends of these traffic volumes over the last few years, and key performance variables for 

major corridors (price, time and reliability). 

These data are not generally available in a regional database. Some related freight data 

have been collected for Eastern and Southern Africa but complementary data for the 

remaining regions will need to be collected. The experience in Eastern and Southern African 

will be applied for efficient data collection. This includes a focus on border posts, ports and 

on a few key interviews with freight forwarders and corridor management authorities. 

For passenger data, national air transport authorities collect the data on passenger flows and 

air service and it is readily available through contact with these authorities. This will requires 

some effort but is feasible. There is also a need for complementary data collection for ground 

passenger transport at selected border posts to capture major passenger flows and some 

interviews for pricing and transit time with passenger and bus company associations. 

The Consultant proposes to visit the RECs and selected countries for the collect of these 

complementary information. 

During these visits, the consultant will also collect data on specific policy issues describe 

under task A1 such as ways and means to tax transit traffic and use of these funds to 

maintain regional transport infrastructure etc 

The Consultant exposes in this report its collection data strategy specific to each task for 

each phase. The reader can therefore find these specific strategies with the task description. 


11



3. METHODOLOGY, ANALYTICAL APPROACH AND 

DETAILED TASKS DESCRIPTION 

3.1 Diagnostic And In Depth Analysis Of The Sector (Phase 1) 

The Consultant will conduct a two-fold review of: (i) regional and continental transport 

policies; and (ii) the development of regional and continental transport infrastructure (in 

operation, under implementation or planned), as well as associated services. 

3.2 Review and analysis of Regional policies of Transport and 

Transit (task A1) 

3.2.1 Background 

Introduction 

This tasks aims to evaluate the regional and continental transport (infrastructure) policies per 

mode of transport (or intermodal transport) that are currently implemented (or recently 

launched). The review will aim at measuring to which extent those policies are contributing 

to productivity increases and transport costs reduction, that both should foster regional 

integration through trade. 

The Consultant will conduct three types of analyses: 

The first type of analysis will aim at reviewing key transport policies implemented in Africa 

aiming at improving regional integration through facilitation of regional transport services, 

The second type of analysis will aim at analysing in which way key transport issues are 

dealt with through regional or continental policies, 

The third type of analysis will aim at reviewing the mandatory aspect of approved policies 

by two or more countries. 

The study will review the transport policies approved: 

At the continental level by Head of States or meetings of Ministers, 

At the RECS level, 

At the corridors level. 

Review of Transport policies aiming at improving regional integration 

Despite numerous efforts by the RECS and corridors secretariat to design and implement policy 

reforms to improve transport and services logistic along these corridors numerous bottlenecks 

remains and substantially increase to costs of transport. These bottlenecks often result of ill 

induced national policies, such as state-owned companies, opaque regulation, bureaucratic 

procedures as well as out dated law. Policy makers in Africa should therefore concentrate on 

the reform of legal, regulatory and institutional sector framework. 

The consultant will collect and analyze all transport policies approved at continental level and 

regional level which stated objectives are to improve regional integration, analyze their degree 

of implementation and evaluate the impact of these policies on regional integration. 


12



The aim of this task is to identify successful implementation of transport policies, understand the 

reason for success and propose recommendation to be implemented by all the African RECS; 

Review of main Issues in Transport policies aiming at improving regional integration 

The Consultant will analyze in which way the key issues of the sector have or could be 

addressed through policies. The analysis will in particular focus on the ways approved policies 

dealt with key issues such as: 

For the road sector: 

Analysis of policies related to the ways and means to better maintain the 

Continental/regional road networks 

The Consultant will review the various ways African countries may finance or not 

maintenance of sections of their road networks that are catering to transit traffic (road 

funds or other). In practice, the regional/continental road links are basically part of the 

national road networks and are maintained with national funds, plus some supplements. 

One exception is the toll roads between Mozambique and South Africa. 

The majority of countries charge fees for trucks transiting through their territory. In 

principle, these fees are supposed to finance the wear and tear and damage created by 

these trucks on the road network and is directly allocated to road maintenance. 

The Consultant will review some of these fees/user charges systems for transiting 

vehicles (cars, buses, trucks etc), review if the revenues are sufficient to compensate for 

the road damages created by the transit traffic and check that these funds are actually 

allocated to road maintenance and rehabilitation. 

The Consultant will identify best practices and make recommendations on the best ways 

to charge these transit traffics (level of the fees, used of the resources, planning of toll 

booths and the road works, etc.). 

Analysis of policies on norms for the African Road networks 

The Consultant will establish a list of the norms and characteristics of the continental/ 

regional road networks and identify key differences. This analysis will also include the 

horizontal and vertical signalling systems as well as safety and security measures 

imposed on the network (relation between speed limit and road characteristics, checking 

of speed limit, crossing of heavily populated area, etc.). 

Based on the norm approved in other part of the world, (more particularly Europe) the 

study will recommend rules and regulations for the building and maintenance of the road 

networks. 

Analysis of policies related to axle load and size of vehicles 

The Consultant will review the on-going policies related to axle load limit and size of 

vehicles, in particular for large trucks. This analysis will review the reasons advanced by 

the various regions or countries to fix the limits, review the key studies relevant to the 

topics and make recommendations on the best ways to reach consensus at the 

continental level. 


13



A further, dimension will be the regional enforcement difficulties in implementing regional 

conventions, in particular how to harmonize the axle loads limits to reduce premature and 

costly road damages. 

Analysis of policies related to regional truck transport and transit rules 

The consultant will review policies related to transit, including trucking market sharing 

agreement and treaties restricting competition, customs procedures for transit, delays at 

ports and control processes during transit and at borders. Estimates of added costs for 

transport will be carried out on typical corridors, as well as impact on low trucks use and 

reduced productivity. 

Lifting of road blocks controls and abnormal practices reduction through facilitation 

regional policies will be reviewed as well as reasons for their failure. The role of shipper’s 

councils for landlocked countries will be reviewed as well as ways to alleviate the negative 

impact on transit traffic. Recommendations will be made based on best practices. 

For the rail sector 

Analysis of the policies related to the management of railway network 

The consultant will review various policies/recommendations related to the management 

of regional railways. Emphasis will be given to the concessioning of railway networks in 

order to identify the reasons for success and failure of the numerous railway concessions 

presently existing in Africa. 

The institutional setting between partner countries for regional railway networks will be 

reviewed, and the policies to separate fix installation and permanent way from the 

commercial management of rolling stock. Best practices will be reviewed. 

Analysis of the policies related to the gauge of the railway networks. 

Today, there are four sizes of gauges in use in Africa from 60 cm to 1,45 m. (standard 

gauge). Various on-going or recent railway studies seem to recommend the adoption of 

the standard gauge. The Consultant will review existing policies related to the size of 

railways’ gauge and propose to study all the issues related to the size in order to reach a 

consensus on the type of gauge the best adapted to the African railways. 

Analysis of the policies related to muti-modal transport and Containers use for regional 

land transport 

The Consultant will review policies to expand the use of container for land transport and 

the requirement for transfer stations or dry ports to ease trans-loading costs to road or 

river transport. The policies to develop legal instruments to ease the responsibility sharing 

among transport modes and intermediaries will be analyzed and recommendations made 

to generalize regional and continental container transport. 


14



For Ports and Shipping 

Analysis of policies related to the development of hub and feeder ports. 

To day, especially in Western Africa, numerous ports compete for the same regional traffic 

from and to the landlocked countries. The Consultant will review policies related to port 

competition and identify the best ways to make African ports more competitive and less 

costly through, possibly, the implementation of policies aiming at developing more efficient 

port system in each RECS. 

Analysis of ways and means to increase private sector participation in port investment 

Ports and airports are infrastructure perfectly suited for private sector investment. More 

and more countries rely on the Private participation for the financing of these 

infrastructures. The PIDA study will review which type of policies should be put in place at 

national and regional level to establish an enabling environment for the particiatpion of eh 

private sector. 

Analysis of regional policies related to shipping 

Some years ago, UNCTAD has launched a program (the 40/40/20) aiming at helping 

developing countries in establishing their own national fleet. This program has not been 

very successful (except for Morocco) but has resulted in the establishment of monopoly 

situation extremely costly. The old system of conferences has also disturbed free market 

in the shipping industry. The Consultant will review on-going policies related to the 

shipping industry and make recommendation on the best ways to make the industry more 

competitive in an effort to reduce shipping costs. 

Analysis of regional policies related to customs transit procedures and their impact 

The Consultant will review policies recommended by the World Customs Organization to 

speed up transit time at port and give preferential treatment to landlocked countries 

goods. These policies will be compared with actual practices and ports delays affecting 

goods in 

transit as well as national bound traffic. The discrepancies between more efficient port 

management for vessels will be compared with current long dwell time for cargo and 

containers at ports, costing huge amounts in demurrage fees and inventory costs, 

resulting in higher consumer good and intermediate consumption prices. 

These customs delays are very costly and render many African products uncompetitive on 

regional as well as world markets. Customs reforms will be encouraged to avoid blocking 

goods by more recourse to selectivity in defining which lots to control, 

For River and Lake Transport 

The consultant will review regional policies related to: 

The coordination of signalling and dredging on bi-national rivers, 

Issues related to customs and trade facilitation, and river crossing for rivers that are as 

well as borders between countries, 

Policies related to multimodal transport (river/road; river /rail). 


15



For Air Transport 

Analysis of the level of implementation of the Yamoussoukro declaration on open skies 

The consultant will review regional policies related to this objective for air freedom in 

Africa. The analysis will dwell on the slow evolution with the adoption of laws backing 

such a principle. 

Particular attention will be given to analyze in which ways existing policies aim at finding 

regional or continental solutions to the key issues stated above. 

The Consultant will analyze the various ways these issues are resolved and when possible, 

identify best practices. 

Mandatory aspect of the regional policies 

One key issue in the harmonization of transport policies in Africa is that various tools are 

used to implement these policies but none of these tools is mandatory, leaving each 

signatory country free to implement or not the agreement with no penalties. (In the EU, for 

example, the no completion with agree policies result in heavy penalties to be paid by the 

country not implementing the policies). 

Typically the instrument is an agreement among the parties that sets out the objectives, 

principles, institutions and mechanisms for jointly managing the development and operations 

of transport projects, systems, policies and regulations. 

The SADC region, for example, has followed variable routes in developing and signing legal 

instruments to govern and manage transport corridor developments and operations. The 

instruments adopted include Memorandum of Understanding (TKC, Beira, Nacala, Mtwara), 

constitution – (Dar es Salaam) and memorandum and articles of association-(Maputo 

Corridor). 

The Consultant will review this issue and propose a program to try to find remedy. 

3.2.2 Analytical Approach for policies review 

For each transport mode, (road, rail, river/lake, maritime, air, pipeline and intermodal 

transport) the Consultant will conduct an overall assessment of policies that are relevant for 

regional and continental transport development by reviewing, when existing, the quantifiable 

objectives that were set. In case of qualitative objectives, the consultant will define 

measurable indicators that relate most to these aspects of transport policies. 

For each selected issue, the assessment will include: 

An identification of the relevant policies and current policy initiatives dealing with each of 

the particular issues describe above 

The objectives to be achieved by the given policies 

The status of implementation (what actions have been undertaken and to what extent 

objectives have been achieved?) 

The coordinating and supervising organizations (RECS, Specialized institution etc) 


16



The level of harmonization of regional and continental transport polices to resolve the 

given issue and possible conflicting problems. 

A detailed analysis of the limiting factors, describing the reasons that limited the level of 

achievement of the policy objectives. 

Summary of evaluation results focusing on: 

Lack of policy principles and interpretation (policy conflicts); 

Lack of political will/political context 

Weak Decision-making & prioritization process at regional and continental level; 

Insufficient Coordination & supervision capability 

Lack of necessary Financial sources; 

Inadequate Institutions, skills & human resources; 

Possible technical inconsistencies 

Other issues 

The tools to be developed for the policies analysis 

The result of the policy analysis will be a framework that presents the level of achievement 

of policy objectives as well as a causal analysis to resolve the key issues stated above. From 

the analysis, and on the basis of best practices, conclusions will be made as regards the 

feasibility of improving policy implementation in order to achieve the set objectives. 

Where possible, an economic indicator analysis will be carried out. However, it is foreseen 

that certain limiting factors remain difficult to be translated in quantifiable data (e.g. political 

impacts, lack of skills and harmonisation). Therefore the causal analysis will contain a 

detailed description of the qualitative elements as well. The same list of performance 

indicators will be used in the projection and the outlook for the future. 

3.2.3 Data identification and collection strategy 

The Consultant will rely on documents to be compiled from available data sources and other 

documents to be collected from the RECs, namely: 

Previous study reports, regional policy documents, national policy documentation with a 

regional impact, legal and regulatory texts, reviews and evaluations of policies. 

Meetings, interviews, correspondence with persons involved in transport policy in various 

African countries. 

As mentioned above the sources of information will be among others: 

Official policy documents and websites 

Reports and proceedings of councils and development originations/-banks 

Existing project and study reports (among which those listed in Annex II of the ToR for 

Transport part of project) 

The World Bank’s Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostics (AICD), 

Data from the major transport organizations in Africa 

Available (inter-)national transport statistics 

International trades tatistics (national, UN, EU) 


17



Customs data 

Economic reports and statistic 

Success and failure stories 

3.2.4 Interaction with the specific stakeholders 

The interaction with the ADB, the AU, the NEPAD secretariat, the RECS and the Corridors, 

both for the collection of the basic information relevant to policies and the review of the 

impact of these policies on regional integration is essential. It should be done through visit 

to these institutions by the transport team, follows by regular contact and discussion. The 

delivery of workshops will be part of a structured approach as requested in the ToRs. 

3.3 Review of Regional Infrastructures for Transport (task A2) 


The consultant will analyse existing, recently completed regional and continental 

infrastructure and associated services, It will also collect data on those under implementation 

and those that are in the pipeline. 

For the existing regional infrastructure, the Consultant proposes to consider as regional 

projects: 

All the transport infrastructure projects that have been completed under the second 

transport decade (The second African Transport Decade was comprised of 508 transport 

projects (373 national projects and 135 regional projects) of which only 239 were 

completed at the end of the decade of which 41 were regional projects). 

All the transport infrastructure projects that have been completed infrastructure under the 

NEPAD Short Term Action Plan (The STAP was comprised of 70 projects and extended 

to more than 100 all qualified as regional projects) 

The transport infrastructure built in a given country that is part of the trans African highway 

or of the regional organizations (RECS) approved networks 

For the on-going and proposed projects, the Consultant will refer to the actual RECs 

programs verifying the status of the projects not completed under the second decade (are 

they on-going or still in the pipeline) and the ones of the NEPAD. 

3.3.4 Analytical approach for transport Infrastructure 

Analysis of completed transport infrastructure projects 

All the completed infrastructure projects that will be identified according to the methodology 

above will be introduced into the GIS system and the existing capacities of these 

infrastructures will be evaluated. 

As per the TORS, the Consultant will select from this long list of infrastructure projects a 

series of infrastructure projects that seems relevant to represent example of good and bad 

practices. The selection will be made in close coordination with the client. 

The Consultant proposes that the regional projects to be more carefully studied be selected 

according to the the following criteria: 


18



A project which requires multi-country cooperation for: 

Inputs (shared transport infrastructure , trans-country railway,…) 

Facility (Border crossings, weight bridges, ..), 

Outputs shared between several countries 

A large project which may affect indirectly regional trade exchanges and transport (for 

example, a regional port rehabilitation) 

A project which is part of the agreed regional networks defined by the RECS 

Special attention will also be paid to regional and continental infrastructure projects that 

have, or could have a particular importance in the development of international transport 

(and trade) in Africa, hence the major rail and road corridors, hubs, lakes, rivers and ports 

around the continent. Hence, a selection will take place on the basis of representativeness 

and substance in terms of transport volume, country data like population and GDP, corridor 

function, potential for public-private partnership (PPP), project implementation experience, 

etc. 

For the selected projects, the Consultant will: 

Review in which way these projects have an impact on the regional and continental 

policies mentioned above; 

When the impact of the infrastructure is not at the expected level, Determine the potential 

for improving the performance of the existing infrastructures for long term development 

prospects; 

When necessary formulate the measures to be taken to improve the efficiency of 

implementation of programs for the development of regional and continental 

infrastructures; 

Review all the problems and difficulties encounter during the cycle of the project 

The Consultant will pay a particular importance to the fourth point that is a thorough analysis 

of the difficulties encountered by the implementation agencies during the cycle of the project. 

Infrastructure under execution or preparation 

For the on-going and proposed projects, the Consultant will refer to the actual RECs 

programs verifying the status of the projects not completed under the second decade (are 

they on-going or still in the pipeline) and the ones of the STAP.. 

The Consultant will select a list of projects to be studied in details in close coordination with 

the client. The projects will be selected among: 

The projects identified for the AU/NEPAD Short Term Action Plan 

AfDB’s proposed Highway Corridors in Sub-Saharan Africa 

Road Network Upgrading and Overland Trade Expansion in Sub-Saharan Africa, World 

Bank 2006 

The projects of the North-South Corridor (road and rail). 


19



The Central African road links (for instance like the recently announced Nyamitanga- 

Ruhwa- Ntendezi -Mwityazo Road Project between Burundi and Rwanda). 

The priority projects from the Transport Consensual Masterplan in Central Africa 

(PDCT-AC). 

The update infrastructure connections (road, rail, maritime ports) analyzed in the study 

Trade and Transport Facilitation: East and Southern Africa (ConsiliumLegis Ltd, 2003); 

Beira – Lusaka road corridor· 

Durban – Lusaka road corridors (via Beit Bridge and via Plumtree) 

Maputo – Johannesburg rail corridor· 

Durban – Lusaka rail corridors (via Beit Bridge and via Plumtree) 

Mombasa – Nairobi - Kampala – Kigali - Bujumbura road corridor 

Mombasa – Malaba – Kampala – Kasese rail corridor 

Dar es Salaam – Isaka (rail) – Kigali – Goma (road) road/rail corridor 

The Main maritime ports around the continent that are linked to regional corridors as 

described above. These will include among others Durban, Mombasa, Maputo, Dar es 

Salaam and Beira, Abidjan, Dakar etc.. 

The infrastructure in the so-called SANE countries (South Africa, Algeria, Nigeria and 

Egypt). These four countries are viewed as Africa’s best chance of producing an 

economic bloc comparable to the BRIC economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China). 

These countries represent almost a third of Africa’s population and account for more than 

half of its total GDP. 

The Main road and railway connections in northern Africa with a regional function. 

The Railway connections with private operations/concessions (e.g. as in 

Senegal/Mali, the Maputo Corridor, lines in Cameroon, Zambia and Malawi), which may 

provide relevant information for the possible future privatization of other lines. 

The Main rivers and lakes transport corridors and transshipment facilities with regional 

importance. 

The Main airports in terms of (potential) international passenger and freight traffic within 

Africa. 

The structures that facilitate international transport (e.g. border-crossing bridges like the 

planned Congo bridge or lengthening of runways). 

The essential intermodal facilities (port-road/rail, road/rail, river-road/rail) with regional 

corridor importance. etc 

As mentioned, the set of projects will be agreed upon between the Consultant and the Client 

and will comprise at least five projects, including some projects retained at flagship projects 

in the STAP. 

When available, transport and economic documentation on these projects will be found from 

World Bank, more particularly the AICD study, African Development Bank, AUC, NEPAD, 

RECs and other institutions. 

As for the selected projects, the Consultant will aim at: 

assessing the contribution of these infrastructures to reaching policy objectives; and 

highlighting how various factors constrain the quick and smooth implementation of these 

projects (e.g. the possible gaps between budgets and initial and present schedules; the 

factors causing such gaps; the conditions of coordination and decision-making on the key 


20



parameters of thee projects; and any other facto that impacted the efficiency of the 

process of preparation and/or implementation of the infrastructure concerned 

3.3.5 Tools to be developed for the transport infrastructure sector 

A list of characteristics and criteria will be established in consultation with the client, which 

can be used to define quantitatively and qualitatively the relative importance of the chosen 

projects/ infrastructures and hence to indicate the representativeness of the analysed 

selection. 

For the on-going and future projects, the Consultant has decided to use the project record 

sheet proposed in the TORS 


The problems of data identification and collection are directly linked to the definition of a 

regional project. As mentioned in point 2.1 the infrastructure regional projects for the 

transport sector will be: 

The projects implemented during the second transport decade for Africa 

The projects implemented as part of the short term project of NEPAD 

The road section recently built that are part of the Trans African Highways 

The road section recently built that are part of the RECs priority regional road networks 

All transport infrastructure projects part of the regional programs of the RECs 


The interaction with the ADB, the AU, the NEPAD secretariat, the RECS and the Corridors, is 

essential both for the collection of the basic information relevant to policies and to projects 

implemented and for reviewing the impact of these policies on regional integration. It should 

be done through visit to these institutions by the transport team, follows by regular contact 

and discussion. The delivery of workshops as required in the ToR will be essential in 

reaching a consensus on the study progress, orientation and solutions to be recommended. 

3.4 Establishment of an outlook for the future Transport 

Infrastructure (task B1) 


For the PIDA transport planning exercise, a vision will be established of the sector needs for 

the next 10, 20 and 30 years in order to identify, design and implement a rational and 

efficient investment program. This involves a comparison of the existing and planned 

regional infrastructure capacities with the estimated regional, continental and intercontinental 

traffic and trade forecasts, leading to the identification of significant gaps and 

bottlenecks and aiding in the definition of investment programs that will overcome these gaps 

and bottlenecks. 

Future regional traffic will build on the level of existing trade and traffic and on the social and 

economic growth of the various regions in Africa. Although it is stated in the TORs, that the 

base year will be taken as 2007 (the base year of the AICD study), and the past trend for the 

period 1998-2007, the Consultant is planning to update these data, where possible, to 2009, 

particularly with respect to traffic and trade data. This updating will take advantage of the 

recent work of team members in three key regions where many of these data have already 


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been collected. Forecasts of transport and trade demand will be extrapolated on the basis of 

GDP, population, resource development and trade forecasts for the forthcoming 10-20-30 

year period. 

The Consultant will take particular care in preparing the assumptions for the establishment of 

the outlook relative to the development of regional and continental transport infrastructure, as 

well as for the demand forecasting methodology to be used, in order to produce realistic as 

well as optimistic results. The Consultant’s methodology will analyze the following points: 

Endogenous factors such as national and regional development visions, the evolution of 

trading partners, the future development of the continent’s major natural resources, 

demographic and migratory factors, socio-economic development of nodal points and 

increased trade potential following national policies that encourage opening to 

international trade and the development of economic communities. 

Exogenous factors will also be taken into account, such as the growth or emergence of 

economic and trade poles outside of Africa and the patterns of development of major 

global transport routes. Technological changes such as the concentration of high capacity 

airlines in the Middle East will also be considered seriously. 

The econometric models that will be implemented by the Consultant will be designed to 

accurately predict future traffic growth along existing infrastructure, and extrapolate that 

growth with changes in the performance of that infrastructure. This methodology described 

below will take into account the growth resulting from current trends of socio-economic 

development, the endogenous and exogenous factors mentioned above and the potential 

future traffic flows along routes where there is today no infrastructure(such as the missing 

links of the Tran African Highways). 

To accomplish this, the Consultant will carry out a two-pronged approach in preparing an 

outlook for regional and continental transport infrastructure: 

The first, called the incremental growth approach, will be based on the growth of existing 

regional, continental and inter-continental traffic flows based on various scenarios of social 

and economic growth and the endogenous and exogenous factors. 

The second, called the spatial connectivity approach, will be based on improving the 

connectivity in Africa, by, inter alia, the finalization of a good paved road network linking all 

African capitals and possibly large cities (for example of more than 300 000 inhabitants), the 

completion of the Trans African highways, and it will predict related increases in traffic and 

trade as a result. 

3.4.2 Analytical approach to develop an outlook for the future transport 

infrastructure 

The Consultant’s analytical approach is summarized in the flow chart in Figures 1 and 2. 

Figure 1 is for freight transport and Figure 2 is for passenger transport. These follow the 

same general approach, but differ in the type of models that are applied in each case. The 

freight traffic analysis focuses on trade flows and the passenger analysis focuses on 

passenger flows, including air passengers. 

The Consultant will identify the present regional, continental and inter-continental traffic, that 

is the traffic crossing at least one border post along the key regional corridors and traffic on 

major inter-continental routes. For freight, this involves the identification and forecasting of 

trade between major trading partners, and for passengers, this involves the identification and 

forecasting of major passenger flows by corridor and air route. Forecasts will be based on 

past trends for the period 1998-2007 (updated where available) and macro economic data 

such as population growth, GDP growth etc. 

For freight transport the Consultant will compute future corridor traffic by first forecasting 

trade by major trading partner and then predicting corridor choice by using a logit corridor 


22



choice model based on corridor performance (the FastPath approach developed by Nathan 

Associates). This will be complemented by using an overall trade gravity model which can 

forecast trade based on connectivity, transport/logistics performance and policy variables 

related to openness to trade. These forecasts will take into account the endogenous and 

exogenous factors mentioned above. This process will be greatly facilitated by using the 

techniques and models recently applied by Nathan Associates to all major corridors in 

Eastern and Southern Africa. This will involve the gathering of complementary data on traffic 

and flows for selected countries and corridors outside Eastern and Southern Africa, and the 

use of AICD data on traffic flows, where available. 

For passenger transport the Consultant will focus on major passenger flows between 

countries and regions and between Africa and overseas regions, including air passenger 

flows. The Consultant will develop models for predicting ground and air flows based on a 

gravity type model which is related to performance in terms of price, time and reliability of 

services which also reflect connectivity. 

The Consultant will also review the inter connectivity of all the capital cities, large cities 

and important economic poles in Africa (access by road, rail river or air) and identify 

missing links. This analysis will essentially focus on road and air transport. The inter 

connectivity by lake or rivers is important in some parts of Africa but can be considered as a 

second best. The construction of new railway lines will be considered only where there are 

significant mineral or other resources which could generate volumes of traffic of at least 2 

millions tons per year (and these may be tied to specific resource development projects). 

Although railway traffic is much more secure and much less polluting than road traffic, the 

regional structuring effect of a railway line, without a resource development project is 

generally much less important than the effect of a road and therefore for the purpose of 

regional integration through improved connectivity, the priority should be given to the road 

sector. 

Based on these two approaches (incremental growth and spatial connectivity) and the 

modeling methodologies described above to identify the future transport infrastructure 

networks of Africa for 2020, 2030 and 2040, the analysis will first identify gaps in the network 

and potentially improvements or projects to fill the gaps. The prioritization of the potential 

improvements and projects will be conducted through a multi-criteria analysis. 

This analysis will be carried out in the context of at least three scenarios (normal growth, 

optimistic growth and growth with improved connectivity) that will include the effects of 

endogenous and exogenous factors in line with the study objectives. 

The Consultant team will prepare an outlook for transport for 2020, 2030,2040, which will 

highlight the forecasts, assumptions for different scenarios and the results of the analysis. 

Once the transport demand and the future network with committed projects have been 

forecast, the Consultant team will use the results to compare the two for the analysis of 

potential bottlenecks and constraints. Based on the recent CORE analysis, it is anticipated 

that this will uncover major areas for potential improvement (e.g., ports, road and rail links 

and border posts). Maps will be produced to illustrate this analysis. This will form part of the 

Phase I report. 


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24




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3.4.3 Tools to be developed for the analysis 

The Consultant will use forecasting models for transport infrastructure that will be specified 

by the transport projection expert. The proposed methodology will be established in a 

methodological brief, to be presented and validated at a workshop 

As mentioned above, the Consultant will develop three types of econometric models, in 

addition to freight forecasting techniques, which do not qualify as models. These are a 

freight corridor choice model, and total trade forecasting model and a passenger 

gravity model. The first two models will be built on the recent experience of Nathan 

Associates in developing these models for Eastern and Southern Africa, where the models 

already exist. Additional corridor choice models will be developed for other regions, based on 

data to be collected or estimated in this study. The total trade forecasting model will be 

adapted directly from the total trade model results in Eastern and Southern Africa. The 

passenger transport gravity model will be developed as part of this study. 


In order to implement a transport forecast model for regional traffic, the Consultant will need 

to collect data on present traffic at border post for passengers and freight along with the 

trends of these traffic volumes over the last few years, and key performance variables for 

major corridors (price, time and reliability). 

Although these data are not generally available in a regional database, the related freight 

data have been collected for Eastern and Southern Africa (including part of Central Africa) 

and therefore only complementary data for the remaining regions will need to be collected. 

The experience in Eastern and Southern African will be applied for efficient data collection. 

This includes a focus on border posts, ports and on a few key interviews with freight 

forwarders and/or corridor management authorities. 

For passenger data, national air transport authorities collect the data on passenger flows and 

air service and it is readily available through contact with these authorities. This will requires 

some effort but is feasible. There is also a need for complementary data collection for ground 

passenger transport at selected border posts to capture major passenger flows and some 

interviews for pricing and transit time with passenger and bus company associations. 

For data on transport system development policies, projects and plans, the freight-related 

data has already been collected for Eastern and Southern Africa and part of Central Africa, 

and only needs to be analyzed for the purposes of this study. Therefore additional data will 

only be needed for the countries outside these regions. The Consultant proposes to visit the 

RECs and selected countries for West Africa and part of Central Africa for complementary 

information on these policies, projects and plans. Visits to the RECs for Eastern and 

Southern Africa are also anticipated for communication purposes. 

During these visits, the consultant will also collect data on specific policy issues describe 

under task A1 such as ways and means to tax transit traffic and use of these funds to 

maintain regional transport infrastructure etc 


The interaction with the ADB, the AU, the NEPAD secretariat, the RECs and the Corridors, 

both for the collection of the basic information on relevant to policies and to review the impact 

of these policies on regional integration is essential. It should be done through visits to these 

institutions by the transport team, followed by regular contact and discussion. 


26



3.5 Analysis of choices and challenges for Transport 

Infrastructure (Task B2) 


This task builds on the results of Task B1 and extends that work to analyze the options 

available for resolving the constraints and bottlenecks that have been identified in B1. 

To accomplish this, the Consultant will carry out an approach including: 

Economic and financial efficiency considerations of different modes and corridors in 

regional markets and for serving multiple purposes. 

The compliance of the potential projects or improvements with regional and national 

development plans and policy objectives 

The trade-offs between potentially conflicting plans, policies and objectives and their 

impacts on the regional economy 

The possible role of private sector competition in bringing about the potential 

developments 

Each mode of transport has its own characteristics and is more or less suited to satisfy 

specific transport demand than the other. Rail transport, for example, has to run on dedicated 

infrastructures which result in high fixed costs and relatively low marginal costs. On the 

contrary, road transport has very low fix costs and high marginal costs. As a result transport 

of small loads over short distances will be much more costly by rail than by road. Because of 

its heavy structure and lack of maniability, transport by rail is usually slower than by road but 

it is much less polluting and much more secure in term of safety (much less accident, no HIV 

risk,etc). 

River transport has low fix costs and relatively low marginal costs and transport by barges is 

much less costly than by any other mode of transport. As rail transport, river transport is not 

polluting and very safe. Unfortunately, only limited portion of the numerous African rivers are 

navigable over long distance. Ports are under equipped and tugs and barges are often old 

and obsolete and river and lake transport is very small. 

The core of the railway network has been established 50 to 100 years ago and, over the last 

30 years, only a few kilometres of railway lines have been built when thousands of kilometres 

of road have been constructed. For various reasons, road transport in Africa has developed 

at a much higher speed than rail transport and today, less than 10% of imported and 

exported traffic at key ports arrive or quit the port on a railway wagon. In some regions of 

Africa, particularly in Western and Central Africa, this is partly explained by the lack of 

connectivity of the railway networks. But even in Eastern and Southern Africa where all the 

railways networks are interconnected, the share of rail traffic remains low. 

Despite the speeding-up of the development of road infrastructure over the last few years, 

some parts of the Trans African Highways are not as yet competed, particularly in Central 

Africa where the road connectivity of all the capital is not a reality. In addition, international 

road traffic is hampered by a series of issues such as numerous informal road stops, 

inefficient border crossings, lack of harmonization of axle loads and size of vehicles etc. 

3.5.2 Analytical approach for transport modal choice 

The Consultant’s analytical approach consists first of listing potential improvement options by 

type of transport modes, on principles as detailed below, in order to assess their potential 


27



efficiency, compliance and trade-offs. This will be a generic and wide-ranging analysis which 

will attempt to identify the full range of possibilities. 

The Consultant will identify the types of efficiencies that can be achieved, using bench marks 

and Best-in-Region performance analysis, as well as other international benchmarks. These 

analyses will take into account the differences in conditions in the different regions compared 

to benchmark locations. Efficiencies will be estimated using FastPath norms, among others, 

which give quantitative comparisons. 

The Consultant will perform an evaluation of costs associated with different outlook options. 

This will be done at an order-of-magnitude or indicative level of analysis, based on costs of 

similar improvements in similar situations or adjusted for the selected location. Total costs 

will be assessed by scenario for the outlook options. 

The Consultant will propose different sets of realistic objectives corresponding to scenarios 

and the related scenario assumptions. The Consultant will then highlight the most viable 

options for each scenario based on this preliminary analysis. As part of this analysis the 

Consultant will calculate the potential increase in trade and traffic associated with each 

option. This will be an input into a combination quantitative and qualitative multi-criteria 

analysis. 

Land transport 

The objectives of the analysis are to define the best systems of transport (in term of costs, 

speed and security) for different categories of transport (transport of passengers, transport of 

containers, transport of agricultural product and foods, transport of mineral products, etc.) 

over short, medium and long distances. 

For the selection of transport mode, the trade offs are between operating costs, depreciation 

costs of the infrastructure and maintenance costs. 

For each category of transport demand (type of goods and distance of transport) the 

consultant will compute the total costs of transport for each mode (road, rail and river) for 

typical homogeneous sections in terms of distance and terrain. This will lead to the 

preparation of a matrix giving the total transport costs for each mode of transport (or 

combination of modes when multimodal is possible) for each category of transport demand. 

Depending of the type of transport infrastructure available along a given corridors, this matrix 

will indicate the most economical transport system. 

It should be noted then, that the best theoretical transport system is often jeopardized by 

inappropriate polices or other bottleneck such as: 

Slow and costly border crossing (for all modes or for one specific mode) 

Informal and costly stops along the roads 

Inappropriate road maintenance system 

Poorly managed railways 

Inadequate systems of dredging and signalling of rivers 

Inefficient land transport access to ships within ports (in particular for traffic to and from 

landlocked countries) 

Lack of freedom for the selection of trucks for traffic to and from landlocked countries 

Inappropriate rail connections within the ports etc. 

Based on the above analysis (total costs, policies and other constraints) and the traffic 

outlook analysed in the preceding chapter, the Consultant will propose a number of realistic 


28



objectives that the African decision makers could set for their long term regional and 

continental infrastructure development policies in the transport sector. 

Ports 

As for land transport, the strategy for port development should aim at minimizing overall port 

costs for national and regional traffic. The strategy should also result in reducing shipping 

costs in order to increase the competitiveness of African exports and reduce import costs. 

Except for the port of Durban in Southern Africa and Abidjan in Ivory Coast, the traffic of the 

African ports, often competing one with another (as it is the case in Western Africa) is quite 

small resulting in heavy port costs when compared to average port costs in other part of the 

world. 

The Consultant will conduct a review of port costs in Africa and try to prepare a matrix linking 

port costs to level of traffic and port efficiency evaluated with a few port performance 

indicators (such as dwell time of ships, number of loaded container per crane per hour, etc.). 

The first step of the study will be to analyse ways and means to increase port efficiency in 

order to reduce costs. However, it is anticipated that Increase in efficiency of existing ports 

capacities will only slightly reduced port costs. 

To analyse much larger reduction costs, the Consultant will study in which way a large 

increase in the size of a few ports along the African posts, could result in substantial costs 

reduction resulting from economy of scale for the traffic transiting through these ports. In this 

case, the study would recommend the setting up of a series of hub ports along the coast, the 

other ports becoming the feeder ports. The Consultant will compare port costs among the 

African ports and review the port costs in other part of the world in order to analyse any 

correlation between size of the ports and costs. Trade off need to be assessed with 

alternative land transport linkages for transit traffic to landlocked countries in order to 

establish whether a lower cost port may not be offset by higher land transport costs. 

The next step would be, for each RECs, to identify which of their ports could become hub 

and feeders, in order for the region to promote the design and possibly attract financing 

partners for port extension programs that would include port physical facilities to be offered to 

the other countries of the region as well as simplified transit documents for regional traffic 

that will transit trough these ports. 

Maritime transport 

The port development approach for hub and spokes ports will be complemented by a review 

of shipping costs for various cargo and ship sizes. The trend is that unit costs do decrease 

with larger size vessels. Modern technology for ship design is aiming at increasing capacities 

while reducing the requirement for proportional increase in vessels draft. Thus, the trend at 

term, will be minimizing the comparative advantage of natural deep water ports. 

The consultant will study in which way large increase in the size of vessels with less 

requirement of sea draft will modify the prospects for a few ports along the African costs to 

become hub ports. These larger vessels are reducing substantially shipping costs resulting 

from economy of scale for all traffic, including transiting through these ports. Based on this 

key additional factor, the study would confirm or modify the above recommendations in the 

setting up of a series of hub ports along the coast, the other ports becoming the feeder ports. 

The next step would be, for each RECs, once are identified which of their ports could 

become hub and feeders, to promote these regional ports with shipping lines. Further, they 

could possibly attract financing partners to develop feeder lines and extension programs that 

would include upgrading port physical facilities catering to feeder lines in the other countries 

of the region as well as simplified transit documents for regional traffic that will transit trough 

these ports. 


29



Air transport 

As for land transport, the strategy for airport development should aim at minimizing overall 

airport and air transport costs for international, regional and national traffic. The strategy 

should also result in reducing air transport costs in order to increase the competitiveness of 

African light and perishable exports and reduce import costs. 

To improve competitiveness of air transport based on the adequation of the planes size with 

demand volume and frequency, the Consultant will review airports facilities and management 

as well as routing alternative between international and regional flights movements t in order 

to identify and recommend which airports have a comparative advantage in becoming hub 

regional airports and those that could be feeders. 

The next step would be, for each RECs, to identify which of their airports could become hub 

and feeders air routes, in order for the region to promote the design hub airports and possibly 

attract financing partners for their expansion as well as to upgrade feeders airport programs 

that would be offered to the other countries of the region as well as simplified transit 

documents for regional traffic that will transit trough these airports. 

3.5.3 Tools to be developed for the analysis of choice and challenges 

The Consultant will use the modelling tools developed in Task B1 to assist in this analysis. 

Tools selected by the Consultant will include existing screening models as well as models 

developed by the Consultant for similar assignments. The Consultant will use available tools 

such as HDM4 for road transport, the UIC costing model for rail transport, UNCTAD port 

costing models for port costs. 

3.6 Preparation of an outline programme for the development of 

regional and continental transport infrastructures (Task B3) 


According to the TORs, from (i) the review of regional and continental infrastructure 

conducted under the task A2; (ii) the formulation of the outlook for the future conducted 

under task B1 and (iii) based on a realistic assessment of resources available for the 

transport sector, the Consultant shall present an outline development programme for 

transport infrastructure and associated services to the horizon 2040 in which the following 

shall be highlighted: 

Investment projects by status (under execution, in current pipeline, new ideas) 

Institutional and legal framework/policies and other soft interventions that are required 

Relevant implementation stakeholders 

First cost quantifications and estimated deadlines 

Specific choices and decision making issues, in particular regarding projects for which 

bankability is uncertain. 

With the available information that will collect during the phase 1, the Consultant will not be in 

a position to respond to the full extent to this part of the TORS. 

However, the Consultant will be able to: 


30



Indicate shortage of capacities on certain corridors based on evaluated existing capacities 

and estimated future demand and 

Identify the key missing links of the African transport network and 

Highlight key issues facing some flagship projects. 

The Consultant will prepare a list of projects without being able, as yet, to rank them by 

priority. 

The Consultant will also have identified the on-going projects conducted at the level of each 

REC as well as the projects for which feasibility studies are either completed or on-going and 

will prepare a list of these projects as well as “fiche de projet”. But the Consultant will not 

be in a position to express a judgement on the opportunity to implement any of these 

projects. These analyses will be done during the second phase of the study. 

Particular, Attention will be given to the projects included in the STAP of NEPAD that have 

not, as yet been completed. For these projects the Consultant will: 

Give details on their level of completion 

Try to explain the reasons for delays in their implementation and 

Make recommendation on the best ways to move these projects forward 

It will be however difficult for the Consultant to evaluate, at this stage, the priority of these 

projects vis a vis other needed projects that will be required to satisfy future transport 

demand. 

It will also be difficult to identify the resources more likely to be available for the sector during 

the next twenty years. The Consultant opinion is that the donors will not express clear 

position on their potential to finance transport infrastructure before having a clear consensus 

of all the stakeholders on what will be the strategic framework finally accepted for the sector 

and a comprehensive understanding of the total financial needs for the sector. 

3.6.2 Analytical framework for the outline program preparation 

As mentioned above, the Consultant will only prepare: 

a long shopping list of potential projects resulting from capacity problems or from the 

missing links 

a list of on-going projects and 

a list of projects for which a feasibility study is available or on-going. 

3.6.3 Tools to be developed for the outline program for transport 

infrastructure 

As already mentioned under task A2, the Consultant will prepare project fiche for each 

ongoing project and project under study following the model indicated in the TORs. The 

Consultant will use the modeling tools developed in Task B1 to assist in this analysis. 

Comparative analysis of the modes 

The Consultant team, including road and other modal specialists, corridor experts and 

economists, will review the available options and carry out indicative analysis of the relative 


31



efficiency of each option for each major corridor. Then this will be combined with an analysis 

of potential impact on trade and passenger transport, and a policy analysis. 

This analysis will be done primarily through desk review and the use of available data bases 

of unit costs. 

Analysis and Assessment of the alternatives for the future 

The Consultant team will carry out a country-by-country and corridor-by-corridor comparison 

of potential improvements with development plans and policies. Then the team will analyze 

conflicts and trade-offs between objectives of the different plans and policies where they 

occur. Potential conflicts include: 

Serving resource areas vs. regional integration 

Overcoming existing bottlenecks vs. serving resource areas 

Improvements supporting private sector development vs. other improvements 

Improvements that serve primarily local and regional needs vs. improvements with 

continental and inter-continental impacts 

Selection of alternative choices with stakeholders 

The Consultant team will organize a set of stakeholder workshops for the purpose of setting 

realistic objectives in a transparent manner. Different options will be discussed with 

stakeholders and the impact of alternative options on funding potential and development of 

resources will be discussed. Then the Consultant team will summarize the results and 

propose the most appropriate objectives. 

3.6.4 Preparation of the Phase I report 

The Consultant team will prepare a component of the Phase I report which presents the 

results of this task. 

3.7 Formulation of a Preliminary Draft Strategic Framework, 

Infrastructure Development Programme and Implementation 

Strategy for the Transort Sector (Phase 2) 

3.7.1 Preparation and holding of transport sector workshop (Task 1) 

Background 

At the beginning of phase 2, the Consultant will propose a series of workshop to be held with 

the key stakeholders. One key objective of these workshops will be to present the basic 

results of the phase 1, in particular the methods used for the preparation of the outlooks and 

the key conclusions and recommendation reach during the study. The workshops will also be 

an occasion to discuss with all the stakeholders the proposed methodology to be used for the 

preparation of a strategic framework for the sector and for the selection of priority project 

through a multi criteria approach. 

The type of workshop to be organized and the persons to be invited to attend them will 

depend of the key conclusions reach during the first phase and of the key points to be 

presented and discussed. 


32



The Consultant will propose the list of workshops to be organized at the end of phase one 

and will prepare the relevant workshop briefs once an agreement would have been 

reached with the client on which workshops to organized, with whom and to present which 

key issues. 

Analytical framework for interactive workshops with stakeholders 

The overall objective of these workshops is to get the consensus by the largest amount of 

stakeholders on the key conclusions and recommendation of phase 1. To do this the 

Consultant proposes to organize various workshops and to return to the stakeholders when a 

full consensus could not be reached. 

The workshops could be organized: 

By mode of transport inviting all the relevant stakeholders to attend these meetings 

By RECs for the workshop covering all modes of transport 

By group of RECs (such as Southern and Eastern Africa, West and Central Africa and 

Northern Africa) and again for each group to hold workshop by modes or group of modes 

(such as land transport, ports and shipping and air transport) 

Tools to be used for the workshop on the preliminary strategic framework 

The Consultant proposes to use a multi-criteria approach to rank the projects to be included 

in the infrastructure development programme. The proposed methodology for the multicriteria 

approach will be explained during the workshop and the weight to be given to each 

parameter retained in the methodology discussed and possibly approved by the 

stakeholders. 


policies) 

Background 

The definition of a strategic framework for the transport sector is essential to identify the list 

of priority projects and to reach consensus of the largest number of stakeholders on these 

projects. 

The basic rules and principles to be used by the Consultant to establish a preliminary draft 

strategic framework will be presented and discussed during the sector workshops. Questions 

and doubts raised during these workshops will be carefully registered in order to be reviewed 

in details before the finalization of the draft. Some basic issues will be restudied by the 

Consultant which will set up a permanent dialogue system with the RECs to keep them 

informed on the progress of the analysis in an effort to get the largest consensus among the 

key stakeholders. 

Possible points of divergence between the Consultant position and the position of one or 

more RECs will be carefully documented. When relevant, the Consultant will propose a 

series of studies and analyses that should help Africa in reaching consensus on these points 

of disagreement. These studies and analyses will be to be included in the priority list of PIDA 

projects. 

Analytical Approach for the preliminary strategic framework 

As mentioned above, the objective is to reach the largest consensus on the strategic 

framework for the transport sector. The analytical approach to be followed by the Consultant 

will be designed in close contact with the Client, once the workshops are completed, the 


33



questions raised by the RECs well noted and the points to be further reviewed and analysed 

clearly identified. 

Work Breakdown 

The preparation of the preliminary draft strategic framework will be conducted during the 

weeks that will follow immediately the running of the workshops. The detailed description of 

the tasks to be conducted to formulate this draft strategic framework, the identification of who 

in the transport team will be involved, and when they will be involved will be specified just 

after the running of the workshops. These tasks will depend of the points raised during the 

workshops. 

3.7.3 Formulation of a preliminary draft infrastructure development 

programme 

Background 

The preliminary draft infrastructure development programme will be phased into the short 

medium and long term. To harmonize the phasing of the programme with the other 

infrastructure programmes under study: 

the short term will cover the period 2011-2020 

the medium term the period 2021-2030 and 

the long term the period 2031-2040. 

The programme will be prepared in taking into consideration the outlook for the future that 

will be prepared under phase 1, the strategic framework that will be completed at the 

beginning of phase 2 after the holding of a series of workshops with the key stakeholders 

and the methodology to rank the projects that will also be approved during the workshops. 

Analytical Approach in formulating the preliminary draft infrastructure program 

In preparing the infrastructure development programme, the Consultant will closely follows 

the Terms of Reference, in particular it will conduct the following analysis 

The coherence of projects and programmes with the policy and strategic objectives of the 

sector. 

Preliminary assessments of the financial and economic viability of projects/programmes to 

provide an initial criterion for their prioritization. These analyses will be conducted on the 

basis of the traffic forecasts established under the task B1 of the first phase and the 

transport costs computed under the task B2 of the same phase. 

Refinement of the prioritization criteria will be done by using a multicriteria analysis. The 

criteria to be used will include factors such (but not limited to): 

the contribution of each project/programme to the attainment of objectives; 

the stage of development of each programme (according to defined milestones); 

an assessment of "soft interventions" such as the difficulties of harmonizing regulatory 

frameworks and administrative procedures; 

the prospects for financing. All these points will be part of the many parameters to be 

selected to conduct the multi-criteria approach 

Role of stakeholders in programme implementation, together with human resource 

availability and capacity building requirements. This point is very important, the Consultant 

will carefully review the capacity of every institutions selected to prepare and implement 

transport infrastructure projects and propose strengthening programmes for these 

institutions (capacity building in particular to programme and implement projects, staff 


34



development plan, search for mechanisms to make these institutions financially 

independent and sustainable, etc) 

The need for complementary policy, institutional, or regulatory measures required to 

enable efficient and fruitful implementation. 

Potential environnemental impact. 

All these criteria that will be used for the selection of projects will be clearly detailed and 

explained during the sector workshops in order to reach the largest consensus on the criteria 

to be used for the selection as well as their relative weight in the multi criteria approach. 

3.7.4 Formulation of a preliminary draft implementation strategy and process 

Background 

The Consultant will aim at building a consensus among all stakeholders around a realistic 

platform of measures and projects for the transport sector. In order to be successful in the 

implementation of these measures and projects, the consultant will 

Identify a list of actions, measures and projects to be implemented rapidly and certainly 

during the next ten years; 

Aim at achieving the largest consensus in Africa for these measures and projects 

Identify the respective regional and continental entities and institutions that should play a 

key role in the preparation a nd implementation of these measures and projects. Particular 

attention will be given to potential competing position and all efforts will be made to 

replace possible completion among institutions into an asset for the success of the 

projects; 

When a project or a list of projects or measures would have been clearly identified and a 

consensus built around the projects the Consultant will assist all the stakeholders in 

searching for the required financing, in particular by making these projects as bankable as 

possible through better presentations, improved feasibility studies etc. 

The analytical approach 

The Consensus building around key list of priority projects and measures will be achieved 

through numerous contacts and discussions with the key relevant stakeholders. 

The reaching of consensus will be facilitated with a clear definition of as strategic framework 

for the sector and well understood project selection criteria. 

For the discussion with the donors community, the chance of success will be increased by, 

every time possible, incorporating the projects within a logical context of infrastructure 

development within the region of the project. Insisting on the economic necessity of the 

projects and demonstrating that the institutional arrangements already in place or to be put in 

place will ensure a smooth implementation of the project and an efficient management of the 

future operation of the infrastructure to be constructed or improved in particular its 

maintenance. 

When necessary, the Consultant will design programs to increase the capacity of the 

institutions in charge of implementing and managing the priority projects. 


35



4. WORK BREAKDOWN 

4.1 DIAGNOSTIC AND IN DEPTH ANALYSIS OF THE SECTOR (PHASE 1) 

4.1.1 Review and analysis of Regional policies of Transport and Transit (task 

A1) 

The analysis of the existing transport policies will be conducted by the Transport Team 

Leader and the Transport Strategy Policy Expert. They will be assisted by the Trade and 

Customs expert and the Corridors experts for the analysis of policies related to corridors 

and trade facilitation and by the modal experts for the review of the specific modal policies 

described above. 

The Consultant will send brief questionnaires to all the relevant stakeholders requesting 

data on their approved and on-going transport policies for each mode of transport. The 

consultant will then conduct a desk review of all the data received from the stakeholders 

as well as the data collected from all other sources. These reviews will be followed by field 

visits for discussion and assessment of the impact of these policies at the AU headquarter 

and in all RECs, with a main emphasis with the SADC and ECOWAS and a substantial 

review of data submitted by the other RECs. 

Based on the analysis of the key policies relevant for the transport sector, the Consultant 

will prepare a brief working paper, summarizing the reasons for success of failure; 

insisting especially on identifying the reasons for delays, conflicts and failures, in order to 

feed into both the prioritization of projects and programmes and into the implementation 

strategies and processes. 

4.1.2 Review of Regional Infrastructures for Transport (task A2) 

For the existing regional/continental transport infrastructures 

Data collection: The four modal experts(road, rail, port and air) will be responsible to collect 

all available information on the completed infrastructure projects according to the 

methodology described in 3.2.3 above, for their respective modes. They will review these 

projects and evaluate the existing transport capacity resulting from these projects. This data 

collection will be made through desk analysis and visits of relevant RECS. 

For the selected list of projects, the assessment of the contribution of these projects 

to reaching policy objectives that will have been identified under task A1 will be consolidated 

by the Transport strategy policy expert This analyse will conduct to the identification of key 

factors to better link infrastructure investment programs to policy objectives. 

The assessment of the various factors constraining the efficiency of these 

infrastructures as well as the ways to improve their roles will be conducted by each modal 

expert. These analyses will conduct to the identification of existing capacity of the regional 


The assessment of the difficulties faced by a few selected projects during the cycle of 

the project will be analyzed by the monitoring expert. The projects to be reviewed will be 

selected by the team together with the sponsor. These analyses should lead to the 

identification of key bottlenecks during the project cycle and the proposal of a list of actions 

to reduce these bottlenecks in future regional projects. 


36



For all the projects under implementation and /or preparation 

. 

The Consultant will try to collect comprehensive data on all the transport infrastructure 

projects under implementation or under preparation. This task will be conducted by the entire 

transport team during filed visit to the RECS 

The preparation of homogeneous project record sheets will be done by the modal experts 

with the assistance of the monitoring expert. 

The review of all the issues faced by regional projects (possible gaps between budgets and 

initial and present schedules) will the start of the Causal Analysis. It will asses all the factors 

causing such gaps, the condition of coordination and decision making and the study of any 

other factor that impacted the efficiency of the process of preparation and implementation of 

the considered projects. This will lead into the identification of key contributing factors to the 

successful implementation of regional projects. The main conclusions and recommendations 

of these analyses will be summarized in brief working papers 

4.1.3 Establishment of an outlook for the future Transport Infrastructure (task 

B1) 

The task will start with the preparation of an initial vision, development scenario and 

preparation of a projection models for the transport demand. 

The transport projection expert will them identify the endogenous and exogenous growth 

factor by relevant area (RECS, corridor etc;) and calibrate the models for freght and 

passenger demand and assess the required data. 

Under the guidance of the Transport projection expert, the transport, Teams comprised of 

transport specialists (modal experts, corridor expert, multimodal expert etc) working in very 

close coordination with the Institutional Development economist will visit all the RECS and a 

certain number of countries to collect the missing data. During their visit the tam will: the 

following activities: 

Collection of data on regional traffic at selected border posts (passenger data for all cases 

and freight data) 

Development of the data base on air and ground travel volumes for model development, i 

Development of the database on passenger service performance measures for model 

development, including map production 

Development of the database on transport/logistics performance measures for countries 

not included in the CORE study for model development (using CORE study methodology), 

including map production 

Analysis of data for GDP, population, urbanization, trade and traffic forecasting (Using 

CORE study methodology, where applicable), including illustrative graphics and maps 

During their field trips the transport team will also: 

Collect macroeconomic data and national projections (population, GDP,AV agriculture; AV 

mining; AV industry, imports, exports) 

Analyze all existing infrastructure data 

Collect available sector strategies; territory planning schemes etc 


37



Review existing reports with GDP, population and trade projects (in particular, the CORE 

study for Eastern and Southern Africa by Nathan Associates and the JICA/MCLI study of 

regional transport priorities both of which contain and summarize a wide variety of 

pertinent data) 

This will be done through visit to 

Planning Ministry 

Territory Planning Agency 

Statistic and population agency 

Ministries responsible for mining, agriculture, trade, industry, transport 

Investment Agencies (identification of private project pipeline able to benefit from the code 

of Investment) 

Chambers of Commerce 

Port Authorities, 

Railways 

Freight forwarders and major transporters, etc 

The projection expert, based on the above data collection and analysis program, will conduct 

the following tasks for the development of relevant models: 

Extension of the CORE freight modeling to West Africa and the remainder of Central 

Africa 

Extension of the CORE total trade model to West Africa and the remainder of Central 

Africa 

Development of the Passenger Flow Gravity model(s) for ground and air transport 

Development of Scenarios 

4.1.4 Analysis of choices and challenges for Transport Infrastructure (task B2) 

The analysis will start with a desk review of all available costing models by the four 

modal specialists and an agreement on the models to be used and of the needed data to 

be collected. 

The modal specialists will then collect available data for the costing in various part of 

Africa taking into account the type of terrain and the various climatic conditions present in 

Africa. 

The next step will be the computation of door to door transport costs for passenger 

and different type of goods over various distances of transport, including multimodal. 

The transport team will then establish a matrix aiming at identifying the best transport 

systems to be used in Africa for passenger and freight. 

Working on the basis of corridors, the team will then propose a strategic framework for 

the transport sector in the various region of Africa taking into account existing and planned 

transport infrastructure. During this analysis, the transport team will consider the social 

and environmental impact of the various transport modes as well as the establishment of 

the necessary soft measures. 


38



4.1.5 Preparation of an outline programme for the development of regional 

and continental transport infrastructures (Task B3) 

The data on on-going projects and on projects under study will be collected during visits to 

each of RECS 

The preparation of the 3 lists of projects will be prepared by the transport team at the end of 

phase 1. 

The Consultant will primarily use data collected in Task B1. But will also employ unit cost 

data from a selection of potential improvement projects. The improvement expected in 

corridor performance will also be estimated as a basis for examining economic efficiencies 

and potential trade increases. 

4.2 Formulation of a Preliminary Draft Strategic Framework, 

Infrastructure Development Programme and Implementation 

Strategy for the Transort Sector (Phase 2) 

4.2.1 Organization and conduct of workshops 

The number of workshops that the Consultant recommends holding at the starting of phase 2 

as well as which stakeholders should be invited and which members of the transport team 

should attend will be proposed in the conclusion and recommendation of the report of phase 

The necessary members of the transport team will be present at these workshops. 


policies) 

The preparation of the preliminary draft strategic framework will be conducted during the 

weeks that will follow immediately the running of the workshops. The detailed description of 

the tasks to be conducted to formulate this draft strategic framework, the identification of who 

in the transport team will be involved, and when they will be involved will be précised just 

after the running of the workshops. These tasks will depend of the points raised during the 

workshops. 

4.2.3 Formulation of a preliminary draft infrastructure development 

programme 

The preparation of the preliminary draft infrastructure development programme, will be 

conducted once a strategic framework will be established. This will be conducted soon after 

the conduct of the workshops.. The detailed description of the tasks to be conducted to 

formulate this draft strategic framework, the identification of who in the transport team will be 

involved, and when they will be involved will be précised just after the running of the 

workshops. These tasks will depend of the points raised during the workshops. 

4.2.4 Formulation of a preliminary draft implementation strategy and process 

The preparation of the preliminary draft implementation strategy and process will be 

conducted once a strategic framework will be done just after the establishment of the 

preliminary draft infrastructure development programme The detailed description of the tasks 

to be conducted to formulate this draft strategic framework, the identification of who in the 


39



transport team will be involved, and when they will be involved will be précised just after the 

running of the workshops. These tasks will depend of the points raised during the workshops. 

5. WORK PLAN AND TIMELINE 

The time distribution for all tasks and time line is given in the study program bar-chart 

presented below : 


40



Led Consortium: SOFRECO –MWH – NATHAN – SOFRECOM – SYSTRA – ASCON - CABIRA 

41



6. HUMAN RESOURCES DEPLOYMENT 

6.1 Expertise of the team 

A team of seven experts has been mobilized for the study, with a total input of 51 

man months. The team has the full range of expertise required: 

Team Leader 

Strategy Policies Expert 

Projection Modeling Expert 

Road Transport Expert 

Railways operation Expert 

Port and maritime Expert 

Airport transport Expert 

The Transport Team will also use the corsssector resources available through the 

mobilization of the: 

Corridor Expert 

Customs facilitation Expert 

Monitor Expert 

Multimodal Expert 

6.2 Tasks assignments 

The following table presents the indicative inputs of the various experts in each task. 

Three categories of input intensities are considered: less than one week, between 

one and four weeks, and more than four weeks. The total number of man months for 

each expert is presented at the bottom of the table. 


42




43



TWRM SECTION 




1. BACKGROUND, ISSUES AND CHALLENGES ........................................... 1 

1.1 Africa’s water resources: a largely untapped potential ............................. 1 

1.2 Need for enhanced regional cooperation .............................................. 1 

1.3 AMCOW and the African Water Vision .................................................. 2 

1.4 NEPAD’s Short Term Action Plan (STAP) ............................................... 3 

1.5 The African Water Facility (AWF) ....................................................... 4 

2. SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES, SCOPE, AND EXPECTED OUTPUTS OF THE 

PIDA TWRM STUDY ..................................................................... 5 

2.1 Specific objectives ........................................................................ 5 

2.2 Time horizons considered ................................................................ 6 

2.3 Selected international basins and aquifers ............................................ 6 

2.4 Water sub-sectors considered ........................................................... 9 

2.5 Types of investments considered ....................................................... 9 

2.6 Expected outputs of the study ......................................................... 10 

3. METHODOLOGY AND ANALYTICAL APPROACH.....................................11 

3.1 Applying the principles of Integrated Water Resources Management 

(IWRM) at basin level .................................................................... 11 

3.2 Supporting the existing planning processes .......................................... 11 

3.3 PIDA TWRM Study logic .................................................................. 12 

3.4 PIDA TWRM analytical framework and tools.......................................... 13 

3.5 Tools to be developed ................................................................... 15 

3.6 Data sources and interaction with stakeholders ..................................... 16 

3.6.1 Data needs and data collection strategy.......................................................16 

3.6.2 Review of the AICD Database and GIS........................................................18 

3.7 Interaction with the stakeholders ..................................................... 19 

4. WORK BREAKDOWN AND DETAILED TASKS DESCRIPTION........................20 

4.1 Work breakdown.......................................................................... 20 

4.2 Tasks of Phase I: diagnosis and in-depth analysis ................................... 21 

4.2.1 Task 1.1: Data collection and development of the analytical tools ................21 

4.2.2 Task 1.2: Review and analysis of the existing situation ................................22

4.2.3 Task 1.3: Establishment of an outlook for the future and identification of 

choices challenges.......................................................................................28 

4.2.4 Task 1.4: Preparation of an outline program for the development of regional 

and continental infrastructure .......................................................................33 

4.2.5 Task 1.5: Phase I reporting ..........................................................................34 

4.3 Tasks of Phase II: formulation of a draft strategic Framework, 

development program and implementation strategy ............................... 35 

4.3.1 Task 2.1: Preparation and holding of a Strategic TWR Sector workshop......35 

4.3.2 Task 2.2: Formulation of a draft strategic final report....................................36 

4.3.3 Task 2.3 Phase II reporting ..........................................................................39 

5. WORKPLAN AND TIMELINE ............................................................41 

6. HUMAN RESOURCES DEPLOYMENT...................................................44 

6.1 Expertise of the team ................................................................... 44 

6.2 Cross-sectoral synergies ................................................................. 44 

6.3 Tasks assignments ........................................................................ 44


INCEPTION REPORT/ TWRM SECTION 

1. BACKGROUND, ISSUES AND CHALLENGES 

1.1 Africa’s water resources: a largely untapped potential 

The context of the study has been very well described in the ToR. Some key issues are 

highlighted here. More than one third of Africa’s population suffers from water scarcity and 

half of the African countries will suffer from “water stress” by the year 2025. Although the 

crucial and central role of water in socio-economic development is widely recognized, 

Africa’s water resources are largely untapped. Lack of appropriate investment in hydraulic 

infrastructures and poor water governance are responsible for a critical situation, 

summarized below: 

the level of water resources used under managed conditions represents only 3 to 5% of the total 

available resources; 

the per capita water storage is100 times lower than in Europe and North America ; 

only 20% of the irrigation potential is exploited ; 

in SSA, irrigation contributes only to 10% of Africa’s food production while the average at world 

level is 40% ; 

only 7% of Africas’ enormous hydropower potential is exploited ; 

millions of people are dramatically suffering from the devastating effects of floods, droughts, water 

pollution and waterborne diseases: 

Hydropower is the main driver for infrastructure development in the Transboundary Water 

Resources (TWR) sector. But the investment needs for irrigation extension and better flood 

control are also huge. Although irrigated agriculture is by far the main water consumer - an 

order of magnitude more than domestic and industrial water use - irrigation development is 

view as crucial for achieving food security in Africa. 

Infrastructure development in the TWR sector has thus to be considered in the scope of 

Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) through the building and operation of 

multipurpose infrastructure for energy production, flood protection, and navigation, with due 

regard to the protection of ecosystems. 

1.2 Need for enhanced regional cooperation 

Since approximately 80% of Africa’s freshwater resources are of a transboundary nature 

(resources shared by at least two countries), it is obvious that equitable, peaceful, and 

sustainable water resources management and development is not possible without effective 

regional cooperation at basin level and without joint basin wide investments in a shared 

benefits approach. Lack of cooperation on the development and operation of large 

infrastructures on international rivers has been all-to-often an obstacle to development rather 

than serving as a catalyst to regional integration. Increasing population and resulting water 

and energy demand may very well exacerbate these challenges. The role of Regional 

Economic Communities (RECs) and of Lake and River Basin Organizations (L/RBOs) is to 

prevent such political tensions and conflicts between riparian countries and to help them to 

negotiate appropriate international agreements. However, several L/RBOs have yet to reach 

maturity and gain authority. More needs to be done in terms of creating new cooperation 

frameworks and strengthening existing ones. L/RBOs need to be mandated with appropriate 

responsibilities based on effective cooperation framework agreements (CFA) 


1



The figure below shows a map of the international river basins of Africa. 

1.3 AMCOW and the African Water Vision 

The African Ministers' Council on Water (AMCOW) was formed in 2002 in Abuja, Nigeria 

(The Abuja Ministerial Declaration on Water) primarily to promote cooperation, security, 

social and economic development and poverty eradication among member states through 

the management of water resources and provision of water supply services. AMCOW’s 

mission is based on a vision outlined in the instruments establishing the African Union (AU). 

The Africa Water Vision for 2025 (AWV 2025) is: 

An Africa where there is an equitable and sustainable use and management of water 

resources for poverty alleviation, socioeconomic development, regional cooperation, 

and the environment. 


2



AMCOW has become a Specialized Committee for water supply and sanitation (WSS) in the 

AU. Initiatives have been launched to contribute to the realization of the vision and 

declarations made by Heads of State and AMCOW. AMCOW’s role is to provide political 

leadership in initiating and sustaining political dialogue towards cooperative development and 

management of shared water resources. The institutional structure of AMCOW today 

consists of several political and technical entities at the regional and sub-regional levels, 

working together to achieve the objectives of AMCOW. 

1.4 NEPAD’s Short Term Action Plan (STAP) 

NEPAD is working closely with AMCOW. In July 2002 NEPAD prepared and adopted the 

Short Term Action Plan (STAP) which outlines the NEPAD response to the challenges facing 

the water sector under four areas: 

Facilitation 

Capacity Buildg 

Investment 

Studies (to prepare projects) 

The STAP was formally adopted by the NEPAD Heads of State and Government 

Implementation Committee (HSGIC) and subsequently endorsed by the AU in June 2002. 

The STAP was prepared with the participation of the RECs and covers the areas of water, 

energy, transport and Information Communication Technology (ICT). In the water sector, 

emphasis was placed on development of national IWRM policies, mitigation of floods and 

droughts, meeting basic water needs, food and energy security, and cooperative 

management of transboundary water resources (TWR), which would enhance regional 

cooperation. A recognition of the inadequate knowledge and cooperation on shared water 

resources issues resulted in a strong recommendation to launch an a NEPAD STAP 

specifically for TWR known as STAP TWR, concentrating on the creation of the enabling 

environment for effective cooperative management and development of TWR and initiation of 

prioritized projects and programs. STAP TWR considered initially seven river basins: 

Senegal and Niger in West Africa, Congo and Lake Chad in Central Africa, Nile in Eastern 

Africa and Okavango and Zambezi in Southern Africa. A portfolio of 24 projects, for a total 

cost estimated at about US$ 12 million, resulted from this Action Plan, mainly focusing on the 

selected shared basins and addressing five themes: 

creating an enabling environment for regional cooperation; 

supporting the development of national IWRM policies; 

meeting urgent water needs; 

improving water wisdom; 

strengthening the financial base for the desired water future. 

Within he scope of NEPAD STAP, the AfDB commissioned a situation assessment study of 

the 7 selected river basins. The assessment, published in March 2005, has shown that 

progress in cooperative development and management of the basins is at different levels. 

Cooperative set-ups range from well -established and reasonably resourced river basin 

organizations, bilateral and multilateral inter-state arrangements with limited jurisdiction, and 

at one extreme, absence of any basin-wide cooperative arrangements. The main issues and 

challenges identified include: lack of a common or shared vision, absence of effective 

cooperative frameworks for Transboundary Water Resources Management (TWRM), 

inadequate capacity, inadequate financial base, and weak political will, with some specific 


3



variations in different basins. Some basins have stalled programs, while others require 

support in implementing initiated programs, geared at advancing the cooperative 

engagements to higher levels. 

1.5 The African Water Facility (AWF) 

An important development was the launch within NEPAD STAP of the African Water Facility 

(AWF) in 2004. This facility, led by AMCOW, is a specific water fund hosted and managed by 

the AfDB. The establishment of the AWF is considered as a significant achievement of 

NEPAD STAP. 

It is intended that the AWF will seek to improve the enabling environment and to strengthen 

water resources management so as to attract the substantial investments necessary for the 

development and management of water resources, meeting urgent continental water needs, 

strengthening the financial base for sustainable and effective water distribution and 

governance. Major objectives of the AWF include attracting and making effective use of 

increased and appropriate investments needed to achieve national and regional water sector 

targets in Africa. 

In the water sector as a whole, there is a huge financing gap and insufficient commitments. 

According to the AWV, the investment required is 20 billion US$/year to attain MDGs and 

AWV’s targets. The Inhibited investments in water resources development is largely due to 

poverty and indebtedness. 


4



2. SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES, SCOPE, AND EXPECTED 

OUTPUTS OF THE PIDA TWRM STUDY 


The specific objectives of the study are to enable African decision-makers to: 

establish a strategic framework for the development of regional and continental TWR 

development infrastructures based on shared development vision, strategic objectives and 


establish a TWRM infrastructure development program articulated around priorities 

established over the short, medium, and long- term horizons by L/RBOs and RECs ; 

prepare an programme implementation strategy and processes including, in 

particular, the improvement of institutional arrangements (such as regulatory and 

administrative processes); a Priority Action Plan (PAP) and financing options including 

measures for promoting, attracting and sustaining private sector participation in 

infrastructure development. 

The strategic framework and investment program will aim at significant increase of the water 

storage and management capacity for irrigation, domestic and industrial water supply, 

hydropower generation, navigation, environmental needs, and flood control. It will also aim at 

a more sustainable exploitation of groundwater resources. The strategy will be to strengthen 

the leading role and capacity of the L/RBOs for sustainable management of the shared water 

resources. The study will analyze the requirements, gaps and justification for the significant 

investments needed for the development of the resources as well as the options for 

maximizing shared benefits or minimizing costs. 

As specified in the ToR, the following objectives will be taken into account: 

alignment of the long-term perspective with the Africa Water Vision 2025; 

ensuring water security to meet future increases in demand for water and enable the 

socioo-economic development of the regions of the African continent; 

enabling the equitable allocation of water resources among competing water uses for 

sustainable development; 

equitable sharing of benefits arising from the shared basin resources; 

adapting to and mitigating climate change impacts and variability in weather patterns; 

enhancing regional cooperation by deploying the principles of IWRM, particularly for 

shared water resources through the L/RBOs and regional water protocols; 

ensuring AMCOW fully supports the outputs; 

environmental protection and management as advocated by the IWRM principles. 

The PIDA TWRM investment program is seen as a continuation of the NEPAD STAP and will 

thus take a close look at the projects identified through this initiative and build on the 

experience gained and the actions already undertaken by the AWF in the area of TWRM. 

While the AWF is gaining experience, PIDA should help the AWF to move to larger 

infrastructure investments to ensure water security in Africa. 


5



2.2 Time horizons considered 


proposal. For Water Resources Development longer time horizons could indeed be justified. 

The proposed time horizons, such as agreed upon during the meeting with the Panel of 

Experts on 17 June, are: 




The horizon 2040 is considered as the “planning horizon”, while 2020 and 2030 are more 

considered as “programming horizons” within a rolling planning process approach. Concrete 

short-term actions will already be considered on the basis of the NEPAD Short Term Action 

Plan (STAP) and the TWRM projects identified by the African Water Facility. 

2.3 Selected international basins and aquifers 

As presented in the background, there are 60 international river basins in Africa. Within 

these basins, there are also large inland water bodies such as Lake Victoria and Lake Chad. 

Not all these basins can be addressed during the study and a selection is needed. 

Complying with the ToR, the Consultant proposes to start with the following basins on the 

basis of a well balanced selection made by AMCOW in 2004 in large consultation with the 

stakeholders: 

Region Basin, lake and/or aquifer Key organization 

Southern Africa Zambezi 

Okavango 

West Africa Senegal 

Central Africa Congo 

Niger, including and Lullemeden aquifer 

Lake Chad 

East Africa Nile Basin Initiative, including Lake 

Victoria 

North Africa Northern Sahara aquifer 

Nubian Sandstone aquifer 

Zambezi Watercourse Commission 

(ZAMCOM) 

Okavango Basin Commission 

(OKACOM) 

Organisation pour la Mise en Valeur du 

Fleuve Sénégal (OMVS) 

Niger Basin Authorithy (NBA) 

Commission Internationale du Bassin 

du Congo (CICOS) 

Lake Chad Basin Commission (LCBC) 

(Nile Basin Initiative, including Nile- 

SEC, ENTRO and NELSAP-CU) 

Lake Victoria Basin Commission 

(LVBC) 

Observatoire du Sahara et du Sahel 

(OSS) 

Center for Environment and 

Development for the Arab Region 

CEDARE: 

The other basins are at all not excluded from the PIDA investment program, particularly for 

the longer term. The above selection has to be seen as a starting point which is appropriate 


6



with the available resources and time constraints, but concrete actions for other international 

basins will also be identified in the course of the study. Recently, some basins such as the 

Orange/Senqu or the Volta have indeed undegone relevant progress as regard to 

transboundary cooperation 

The map below shows the geographical coverage of the 7 river basins and the three shared 

aquifers. 

These basins cover 35 countries and nearly 45% of the total area of the African continent. All 

of them have a coordination mechanism (Basin Commission, Basin Authority, etc.), but their 

mandates, political strength and resources are quite variable from one basin to another. 

The table below presents for the selected basins, their area, the RECs potentially involved 

and the L/RBOs: 


7



River 

Basin 

Area 

(sq.km) 

Senegal 436,000 1.6 

Niger 2,113,200 7.5 

Lake Chad 2,388,700 8 

% of 

contin 

ent 

area 

Nile 3,031,700 10.3 

Congo 3,691,000 12 

Zambezi 1,385,300 4.5 

Okavango 706,900 1 

Countries RECs involved* L/RBOs 

Mauritania, Mali, 

Senegal, Guinea 

Nigeria, Mali, Niger, 

Algeria, Guinea, 

Cameroon, Burkina 

Faso, Benin, Ivory 

Coast 

Chad, Niger, Central 

African Republic, 

Nigeria, Algeria, 

Sudan, Cameroon, 

Libya 

Ethiopia, Egypt, 

Uganda, Tanzania, 

Kenya, Congo 

(Kinshasa), Rwanda, 

Burundi, Eritrea, 

Sudan, Central 

African Republic 

Angola, Burundi, 

Cameroon, Central 

African Republic, 

Congo (Kinshasa), 

Congo (Brazaville), 

Gabon, Malawi, 

Rwanda, 

Sudan,Uganda 

Zambia, Tanzania, 

Zambia, Angola, 

Zimbabwe, 

Mozambique, 

Malawi, Tanzania, 

Botswana, Namibia, 

Congo (Kinshasa) 

Botswana, Namibia, 

Angola, Zimbabwe 

UMA, CEN- 

SAD, ECOWAS, 

(WAEMU) 

UMA, CEN- 

SAD, ECOWAS, 

ECCAS, 

(WAEMU) 

UMA, CEN- 

SAD, ECOWAS, 

(WAEMU), 

(CEMAC), IGAD 

CEN-SAD, 

ECCAS, 

COMESA, EAC, 

IGAD 

ECCAS, 

(CEMAC), 

COMESA, EAC, 

IGAD 

SADC, 

(CEMAC), 

ECCAS, 

ECCAS, SADC 

Organisation pour 

la Mise en Valeur 

du Fleuve 

Sénégal (OMVS) 

Niger Basin 

Authority (NBA) 

Lake Chad basin 

Commission 

(LCBC), Basin 

Commission for 

Strategic Planning 

(BCSP) 

Nile Basin 

Initiative (NBI), 

Lake Victoria 

Basin 

Commission 

(LVBC) 

Commission 

Internationale du 

Bassin du Congo- 

Oubangui-Sangha 

(CICOS) 

Zambezi 

Watercourse 

Commission 

(ZAMCOM) 

Okavango Basin 

River Commission 

(OKAKOM) 

*if one or more member countries of the REC are covered fully or partly by the basin 

One difficulty of the study is that these River basins cover several RECs as shown in the 

table above. This means that one REC does not have all the riparian states within its 

members. This is illustrated in the figure below for ECOWAS, covering partly three major 

River basins considered in this study: the Senegal basin, the Niger basin, and the Lake Chad 

basin. The three basins all have riparian states, which are not members of ECOWAS. 


8



2.4 Water sub-sectors considered 

The TWR sector will only be considered to the extent that there are aspects of a regional 

nature, primarily through links with storage and multipurpose water use, irrigated agriculture, 

hydropower, transport in lakes and rivers, drought and flooding and environmental 

management. Issues that are within the scope of national or local level actions will only be 

considered in as much as the impact of such actions is felt at transboundary level. 

The water sub-sectors considered in the sector study are thus primarily irrigation, 

hydropower, and lake and river transport. WSS is generally covered within the scope of 

national and local actions. Nevertheless, in the analysis (projections) of future water 

demands (outlook for the future), the domestic and industrial uses will be taken into account. 

Let us emphasize here that water withdrawal for irrigation is by far the largest part of the total 

water withdrawal of large rivers and/or groundwater systems and accounts already for 85% 

of the total water withdrawal in Africa. 

2.5 Types of investments considered 

The study will consider two types of investments: (i) investments in physical infrastructure, or 

“hard” investments, and (ii) investments in the enabling environment for regional cooperation, 

or “soft” investments. 

The “hard” investments are the hydraulic infrastructures having significant transboundary 

impacts and requiring the cooperation between at least two countries: 

major dams used for hydropower generation, irrigation, water supply, and flood control; 

we will encourage multi-purpose use; 

major irrigation schemes/areas; 

major intra-basin diversions 

major inter-basin water diversions; 

The “soft” investments are investments in the enabling environment for regional cooperation: 

including: 

creation of new and the strengthening of existing L/RBOs; 

information and knowledge base, including hydrometric networks : considering that there 

is a huge lack of planning data and knowledge; 

planning and implementation capacities, modelling tools and Decision Support Systems; 

communication and public awareness; 


9



monitoring capacities; 

flood early warning systems. 

The Consultant will promote the concept of “integrated investment programs”, with a longterm 

perspective, focusing on tangible outputs in a step-wise approach. An important point 

would be to build within the projects a resource mobilization component in order to ensure 

financial sustainability. Another important aspect is to take into account the environmental 

dimension by considering the ecosystems as one of the users of the water resources, 

avoiding mistakes of the past. 

2.6 Expected outputs of the study 

The TWRM sector study will contribute to the overall study outputs, which are described in 

detail in the general part of the Inception Report. 


10



3. METHODOLOGY AND ANALYTICAL APPROACH 

3.1 Applying the principles of Integrated Water Resources 

Management (IWRM) at basin level 

The most sustainable way to plan major investments in infrastructure for international Rivers 

is through an integrated basin approach, applying the principles of IWRM, and strengthening 

the role and capacity of L/RBOs. 

IWRM is a management approach or philosophy promoting a number of principles, initially 

known as the Dublin Principles, and further developed at the occasion of several 

international conferences: 

integration, dialogue and coordination; 

participation and decentralization; 

equity and gender; 

considering water as an economic value; 

transparency and communication; 

sustainability of the resource and protection of ecosystems. 

The approach adopted for the TWRM sector study will keep these principles in mind. 

3.2 Supporting the existing planning processes 

Several L/RBOs are currently in the process of preparing integrated development plans, 

often with the support of the international donor community 1 . 

The consultant will collect the available information on the ongoing basin-wide “bottom-up” 

planning processes, in which a large basis of stakeholders are consulted in the countries 

involved. Remaining in line with the bottom-up and participatory IWRM approach as well as 

with the subsidiarity principle, the planning of new infrastructures will not shortcut the existing 

planning processes undertaken by the L/RBOs. Emphasis will also be put on the application 

of the subsidiarity 2 principle that a central authority should have a subsidiary function, 

performing only those tasks, which cannot be performed effectively at a more immediate or 

local level.. The figure below shows the position of the PIDA TWRM study as regard to the 

ongoing project and program planning and processes. 

1 An example is the “Schéma Directeur d’Aménagement et de Gestion des Eaux du fleuve Sénégal (SDAGE)” of 

the OMVS, supported by he EU). A Basin Plan has recently been approved at Heads of States level for the Niger 

basin. Another example is the IWRM Congo Basin Strategic Action Plan, with 140 projects proposed for a budget 

of approximately 1.5 billion €. 

2 The principle that a central (or regional) authority should have a subsidiary function, performing only those tasks 

which cannot be performed effectively at a more immediate or local (national) level. 


11



If for a L/RBO, the existing planning capacity an/or the planning process inexistent, the 

Consultant will include in the PIDA TWRM investment program two types of investments in a 

two-track approach: 

strengthening of the existing planning capacity and process (including information base, 

models, etc); 

formulation of investment plans, using external resource in order to accelerate the 

process. 

Wherever appropriate, the Consultant will promote the concept of integrated investment 

programs at basin or sub-basin level rather than isolated investment projects. Indeed, 

optimal combination of physical investments, within an approach of shared benefits, could be 

a solution to overcome international disagreements on isolated projects. 

3.3 PIDA TWRM Study logic 

The study logic is presented in the diagram below 


12



3.4 PIDA TWRM analytical framework and tools 

The analytical framework of the study is presented in the diagram hereafter. 

The review of regional and basin wide policies, strategies, institutional capacities and legal 

frameworks, and the review of existing development plans and feasibility studies will allow 

the identification of pipeline projects (hard and soft) and of planning capacity development 

needs. For each selected basin, the inventory and review of existing and proposed 

infrastructures, including dams, water diversions, flood control structures, navigation 

facilities, etc, will be done together with an inventory of the main consumptive and non 

consumptive use centers (for irrigation, water supply, energy). 

The Consultant will also assess the existing surface water and groundwater resources, 

taking into account climate variability and change. This will be done mainly on the basis of 

existing studies. 

The horizontal team will provide growth scenarios (outlook for the future) in terms of 

population, GDP, agriculture, industry, agriculture. The energy team will provide information 

on the future energy needs and the transport team will provide information on the future 

navigation development needs. Future demands for food products from irrigation will be 

derived from assessments made by the FAO. Those data will allow making projections on 

the future food, energy, and water supply demands by basin. The irrigation expansion 

potentials for each basin will be analyzed in the light of the future demands on the one hand 

and of the available water resources on the other hand. This in turn will allow to analyze the 

sensitivity of the basins to water scarcity. 


13




1 

4



Important concepts here are the concepts of “water stress” and “water scarcity”. Water stress 

and water scarcity occur when the demand for water exceeds the available amount during a 

certain period or when poor quality restricts its use. It is commonly considered that a country 

or region is said to experience "water stress" when annual water supplies drop below 1,700 

cubic meters per person per year, At levels between 1,700 and 1,000 cubic meters per 

person per year, periodic or limited water shortages can be expected. When water supplies 

drop below 1,000 cubic meters per person per year, the country or region faces severe 

"water scarcity". Water stress can be assessed using indicators such as the Criticality Ratio 

(CR) defined by Alcamo, Döll, Kaspar, & Siebert (1997), which is “the ratio of water use to 

water availability in a watershed or country”. They estimated the distribution of water use and 

availability on a global scale and showed with scenarios how this might affect the water 

supply of humans around the globe until the year 2075. This and subsequent studies will be 

used for analyzing the sensitivity of the selected basins to identify which are the most likely to 

suffer from increasing water stress and water scarcity. Information and knowledge on this 

matter is also available at UNESCO, UNEP, and FAO. 

The analysis will allow at the end - and in an iterative process - to define for each basin 

realistic development targets, mainly in terms of irrigation expansion and hydropower 

generation, which have to take into account the environmental constraints. For the targets 

defined, it will be possible to simulate future water demands, which will remain compatible 

with the concept of “reasonable use” of the available resources. For proposed infrastructures 

(pipeline “hard” projects), the Consultant will roughly evaluate (not in details because this 

would need much more sophisticated modeling tools)) the degree of potential transboundary 

impacts based on a set of criteria such as the ratio between the volume of the reservoir and 

the discharge of the River, the location within the River system (upstream, downstream, 

mainstream, tributaries). The analytical framework will also : 

allow the analysis of potential conflicts between water uses/sectors 

assess the trade-off relationship between competing sectors and between upstream and 

downstream users 

determine the economic value of cooperation in planning and managing transboundary 


provide updates of infrastructure performances. 

3.5 Tools to be developed 

An online document management system will be developed to manage the documents, 

reports, and data received from AfDB and collected by the team members. 

A projects/programs databases will be developed with an inventory of all the main regional 

projects/programs under implementation and preparation. The structure of the database will 

be compatible with the format of a project sheet which will agreed upon with the client 

For each selected basin, a Geographical Information System (GIS) will be developed using 

the ArcGIS software. The GIS will allow the management, visualization, and analysis of 

socio-economic and physical data: population, cities, hydrology, hydrography (rivers and 

lakes), topography (digital elevation model), existing and planned hydraulic structures, main 

irrigated areas, irrigation potential, hydropower potential, groundwater resources, flloodprone 

areas, wetlands, etc.. Existing and planned infrastructures and development areas will 

be visualised on maps and on network diagrams such as illustrated in the figure below for the 

Zambezi River Basin. 

Led Consortium 

15



Modelling tools will be developed to make the projections of future water requirements (both 

consumptive and non-consumptive uses). For agricultural water use, the Consultant will use 

the CROPWAT model, developed by the FAO. Future domestic and industrial water supply 

needs will be estimated on the basis of the population and GDP projections provided by the 

horizontal team and on assumptions proposed for the per capita consumption ratios. These 

assumptions will be discussed during the methodology validation workshop. 

3.6 Data sources and interaction with stakeholders 

3.6.1 Data needs and data collection strategy 

The study will require a large amount of data and documents relating to (non-exhaustive list): 

Basic data on each selected basin (hydrography, hydrology, climate, irrigation potential, 

existing infrastructure, major cities, etc.); 

Socio-economic data on population (urban and rural), economic activities, urban 

development, industry, etc; 

Policy and strategy documents; 

Legal documents (cooperation framework agreements); 

Investment/development plans at continental, regional, basin, and national levels; 

Master plans, feasibility studies, project information; 

Impact assessment studies of projects and programs. 

The data collection process will be crucial, especially in relation to cooperation and reaction 

times of the stakeholders in preparing and forwarding these data. The AfDB has sent official 

letters of introduction to the RECs and L/RBOs, requesting their collaboration in making such 

documents available to the study team. To facilitate this process, all RECs and L/RBOs will 

be visited at an early stage and a questionnaire/list of required documents will be sent before 

the visit. 

The table below presents the types of documents and data required and the respective data 

sources. 


16



Types of documents and data needed Possible data sources (not exhaustive) 

Continental and regional policy and strategy documents. AfDB, WB, AMCOW, AUC, NEPAD, ICA, 

UNECA, RECs 

Studies on Africa’s water resources and water needs, 

irrigation potentials, hydropower generation, navigation, 

water supply and sanitation, environment, etc. 

Global data on water resources and water scarcity maps 

(per country and per basin). 

Macro-economic reports and data on population (urban 

and rural), economic activities, urban development, 

industry, economic indicators; etc. 

Basin policies and strategies, basin development plans, 

master plans, and investment opportunity studies; 

L/RBO’s institutional setup (status and organization), 

legal frameworks; 

Lists of ongoing and planned projects and programs; 

Basin wide studies on irrigation potential, hydropower 

potential, navigation, etc. 

Scoping studies, pre-feasibility and feasibility studies. 

Relevant Consultants reports. 

Donor policies and lists of ongoing and pipeline projects 

and programs. 

National water policy and strategy documents (including 

poverty reduction and development strategy). 

WSS statistics per country on access, financial 

indicators, pricing, water production, water consumption, 

water availability par capita per year, etc. 

National irrigation sector reviews, urban water supply 

sector review, sanitation sector review, irrigation 

investment needs, etc. 

GIS data (shapefiles) on topography, basin limits, 

hydrography, hydrology, climate, main towns, landuse. 

UNECA, FAO (AQUASTAT), IWMI 

(Challenge Programme), IFPRI, ICOLD, 

Aqua-Media Intl., International Hydropower 

Association IHA 

Internet search and contacts with UNEP, 

UNESCO, World Resources Institute (WRI), 

Research Institutes 

Provided by the horizontal team. 

Contacts with the selected L/RBOs, 

including OSS and CEDARE. 

Contacts with ANBO ,CAPNET, GWP. 

Own consultants network. 

Contacts with AWF, AfDB, WB, EC, Other 

Development Banks and donors. 

Mainly through internet search 

Mainly the WB AICD database. 

Mainly through internet search. 

Public domain global data sets (ArcGIS 

shapefiles): 

Transboundary freshwater dispute 

database (Oregon State University) 

Hydrosheds and Hydro 1K from USGS 

GRID Database 

Global runoff data center GRDC 

(Koblenz) including hydrological 

datasets of 7000 stations worldwide ; 

Global Lakes and Wetlands Database 

GLWD, from WWF : see website. 

AICD shapefiles on roads, cities, country 

boundaries, topography, transmission 

networks. 


17



Databases on existing and planned dams and on 

existing and potential irrigated areas. 

Powerpoint presentations on programs and projects 

(AWF, AICD WB). 

FAO database on hydropower dams, AICD 

database, datasets of ICOLD, Aqua-Media 

Intl.,datasets of IHA. 

Contacts with FAO and AQUASTAT 

Database 

Internet search. 

Prior to the field visits, questionnaires will be sent to each L/RBOs to request the data and 

documents according to the checklist given below. 

Checklist of data and information requested from L/RBOs 

L/RBO’s institutional setup (status, organization, mandate); 

Legal frameworks; 

Basin wide policies and strategies; 

Basin development and investment plans, IWRM Plans, Master Plans; 

Investment opportunity studies and scoping studies; 

Lists (and location) of ongoing projects and programs; 

Lists (and location) of projects and programs in the pipeline; 

List and characteristics of existing hydraulic infrastructures (with GIS files and maps if possible); 

List and characteristics of main irrigated areas (with GIS files and maps if possible); 

List and characteristics of planned hydraulic infrastructures (with GIS files and maps if possible); 

List and characteristics of potential irrigated areas (with GIS files and maps if possible); 

Other relevant GIS files and maps; 

Synthetic hydrological and climatic data; 

Studies on basin wide irrigation potential, hydropower potential, navigation potential, etc.; 

For recent and planned infrastructures and for infrastructures under construction: pre-feasibility 

studies, feasibility studies, impact assessment studies, evaluation reports, project documents; 

Any communication material and presentations on the organization, programs and projects. 

3.6.2 Review of the AICD Database and GIS 

As requested by the ToR, the Consultant has considered carefully the extent to which the 

data and models which have already been collected and developed by the AICD team can 

be utilized to establish the outlook for the future. 

Concerning the water sector, AICD has collected data from 2 sources : national data and 

data provided by utilities. While there are useful data at national level, the AICD database is 

very poor in terms of TWR, as this was not the purpose of the project. Nevertheless, the 

following data are of interest for the PIDA TWRM study: 

WSS statistics per country on access, financial indicators, pricing, water production, water 

consumption, water availability par capita per year, etc.; 

Irrigation, urban water supply, and sanitation sector reviews; 

Irrigation spending needs; 

Country reports for 11 countries (but with limited data on water); 

A presentation on tings journalists need to know about Africa’s Water Sector (synthetic 

figures on water resources and WSS issues); 


18



Chapters in the Flagship report on Africa’s infrastructures: Water resources, Irrigation, 

Water supply and Sanitation; 

ArcGIS shapefiles : on roads, cities, country boundaries, topography, transmission 

networks, power plants, hydropower dams (existing and planned) with hydropower 

capacity. 

The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) has been contracted by the AICD 

project to develop digital maps of the spatial extension of irrigation potential (small scale and 

large scale). But the Consultant would like to express some reservations about the 

assumptions and approach used to produce these maps and on the conclusions about the 

rates of return of small scale and large scale irrigation. The issue for large scale irrigation is 

that only the irrigated area in the country where a dam is located has been taken into 

account in the computations of returns on investments, while in many cases water is also 

used in downstream countries. Concerning small scale irrigation, returns on investments 

have been calculated on the basis of 10km by 10km pixels, which in many countries is not 

relevant. 

Concerning AICD models, no model is available yet but a spending needs model for Water 

Supply at country level will be available soon. This might eventually be of some interest for 

projecting water demand scenarios. 

3.7 Interaction with the stakeholders 

Interaction with stakeholders is of utmost importance. The four Sector Leaders and the 

Programme Manager visited the AICD World Bank project during the week of 10 to 14 Mai 

2010. During this mission, a meeting has also been held at IFPRI. Official letters of 

introduction have been sent mid June 2010 by the AfDB to the key stakeholders. A meeting 

has been programmed with the African Network of River Basin Organizations (ANBO) on 1 

July 2010. The AMCOW Secretariat, RECs involved in TWR and L/RBOs will be visited in 

the period July-September, depending mainly on their availability. More details on the dates 

cannot be provided at this stage. Several informal contacts have already started during the 

inception phase. Other key stakeholders which will be contacted informally include the FAO, 

IFAD, IWMI, UNEP, ICOLD, IHA, GWP, EC, Donors, Research Centres, Consultants, etc. 


19



4. WORK BREAKDOWN AND DETAILED TASKS 

DESCRIPTION 

4.1 Work breakdown 

The figure hereafter presents the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) of Phase I and Phase II. 


20



4.2 Tasks of Phase I: diagnosis and in-depth analysis 

The kick-off meeting will establish a vision and macro framework to inform the Consultant’s 

assumptions and projections. 

The tasks of Phase I are: 

Data collection and development of the analytical tools; 

Review and situation analysis (diagnosis) of policies, strategies, institutions, regulatory 

frameworks, and existing and planned infrastructures (hard and soft); 

Establishment of an outlook for the future and identification of choices and challenges 

(setting objectives and targets); 

Preparation of an outline program for the development of regional and continental physical 

infrastructures. 

Phase I will lead to the production of Phase I Report. 

4.2.1 Task 1.1: Data collection and development of the analytical tools 

Task 1.1.1: Data collection and management 

The data needs and data collection strategy has been described in section 3. During the 

inception phase, the Consultant has already established contacts with a number of 

stakeholders in order to identify the nature and scope of existing information sources. 

Extensive data collection has also started with the screening of the Consultant’s own data 

resources and through the consultation of relevant websites. AfDB has provided an important 


21



amount of documents and data. All documents relevant to the TWR which have been listed 

in Annex I of the ToR have been received and consulted, including the STAP Reviews of 

L/RBO’s and other studies conducted by key organizations in the sector. Data collection will 

continue during Phase I through systematic web searching and direct contacts with the 

RECs, L/RBOs and other stakeholders through email and field visits. The team will also 

benefit from its personal relations with many stakeholders. 

Task 1.1.2: Development of the analytical tools: databases, and GIS 

The tools to be developed have been described in section 3. 

4.2.2 Task 1.2: Review and analysis of the existing situation 

Task 1.2.1: Review of continental and regional TWRM policies, institutional and 

regulatory frameworks 

Objective and analytical approach 

This review will cover the continental and regional policies implemented to date TWRM in 

Africa. It will address as precisely as possible the following questions: 

what is the scope of existing continental and regional policies, institutions, and regulatory 

framework regarding TWRM ? 

to what extent the existing policies are helping to resolve the main issues ? 

to what extent have the policies been applied and the objectives been achieved ? 

what are the limiting factors that impede the achievement of these objectives ? 

For the analysis of policies and strategies, the Consultant will refer to the approach described 

in the general part of the Inception Report and will consider two distinct levels of analysis: 

analysis of the level of achievement of policy objectives; 

causal analysis: reasons and factors (constraints) which limited the level of achievement 

of the policy objectives. 

A key factor for success of a regional policy or strategy is the consistency between regional 

and national levels, the sense of ownership of the member states and their level of 

participation in the policy and strategy formulation. 

Review of policies at continental level 

AMCOW provides political leadership, policy direction and advocacy in the provision, use 

and management of water resources for sustainable social and economic development and 

maintenance of African ecosystems. The TWRM issue is gaining more and more political 

attention. There are a number of key declarations such as the Abuja Ministerial Declaration 

(2002) on Water; the Sirte Declaration (2004) on the challenges of implementing integrated 

and sustainable development on agriculture and water in Africa; the Declaration of 

Johannesburg (2007) on water for development and the fight against poverty; the Ministerial 

Declaration ending the First African Water Week (2008) that focused on “Accelerating Water 

Security for socio-economic development of Africa” and the Heads of State Sharm El-Sheikh 

Commitments for Accelerating the Achievement of Water and Sanitation Goals in Africa 

(2008). These declarations create awareness, symbolize political commitment and aim at 

ensuring an enabling regulatory and institutional framework in the management of water 

resources. 


22



The Consultant will first identify, collect and review the existing African wide policy 

documents relating to TWRM. The main entry point will be AMCOW and the African Water 

Vision 2025. Other policy documents may relate to institutions, infrastructures, environment 

protection or knowledge management. 

Review of policies, institutions, and legal frameworks at basin level 

Africa has 60 international rivers, covering 80% of Africa’s freshwater resources. But only a 

handful of these rivers have strong co-operative arrangements. And only a few have real 

responsibility for joint development of common resources. These organizations are often 

constrained by some or all of the following: 

Absence of clearly defined mandate to act on behalf of the riparian countries; 

Technical and managerial weaknesses at the level of the secretariat of the basin 

organization; 

Inadequate funding by member States of the basin; 

Inability to mobilize external funds for pre-investment studies and for investment; 

Political selection of key personnel. 

According to the AU’s guidelines for establishing a cooperative framework agreement for the 

integrated management of transboundary basins (2007), the factors that determine the 

performance and effectiveness of these basin organizations include: 

the political commitment of the riparian states; 

the focus on socio-economic development; 

the focus and technical precision of their objectives; 

the number of states in the basin; 

the support from external agencies; 

the emphasis placed on the processes involved in the development of infrastructure 

beyond mere planning. 

The Consultant will also refer to the key performance indicators of River Basin Organizations 

developed by B.P. Hooper (USGS, 2006) and make recommendations for further 

developments/improvements. 

As a starting point for legal cooperation agreements, L/RBOs often refer to the UN 

Convention on the Non-Navigational Uses of Intl Water Courses (1997). Among various 

doctrines, the Theory of Community of Interest or Doctrine of Limited Territorial Sovereignty 

is now widely accepted. The main principles of cooperation are sustainable development, 

subsidiarity, equitable and reasonable utilization, and prevention of significant harms to other 

riparian States. Cooperation on the basis of equity and reasonable use is needed to advance 

transboundary regulation of rivers against floods and droughts, groundwater management 

and protecting watersheds and wetlands. Cooperation, coupled with transboundary benefit 

sharing, may allow countries to leverage the productive potential of their shared rivers, lakes 

and aquifers, including locating economic activities where they are most efficient. 


23



In 2005, AfDB made a review of the status of cooperation in the management of 

transboundary water resources for the 7 selected river basins. 3 This 2005 situation is 

presented in the table below: 

Stage or 

process 

Initiation 

stage 

Shared vision 

process 

Institutional 

and legal 

framework 

Information 

collection 

and 

dissemination 


planning/ 

project 

preparation 


development 

stage 

Operation, 

maintenance 

and 

management 

stage 

Monitoring 

and 

evaluation 

Okavango 

Zambezi Nile 

Lake 

Chad 

Congo Niger Senegal 

Advanced Advanced Advanced Advanced Not started Advanced Advanced 

Not 

started or 

early 

stage 

Early 

stage/ in 

progress 

Early 

stage 

Early 

stage 

Not 

started / 

early 

stage 

Not 

started or 

early 

stage 

Not 

started or 

early 

stage 

Not 

started or 

early 

stage 

In 

progress 

Advanced Early 

stage 

In 

progress 

Early 

stage 

Early 

stage 

Early 

stage 

Not 

started or 

early 

stage 

Early 

stage 

Early 

stage 

Not 

started 

Not 

started or 

early 

stage 

Not 

started or 

early 

stage 

Not 

started or 

early 

stage 

Early 

stage/ in 

progress 

Early 

stage/ in 

progress 

In 

progress 

Not 

started or 

early 

stage 

Not 

started or 

early 

stage 

Early 

stage/ in 

progress 

Not started 

or early 

stage 

Not started 

or early 

stage 

Not started 

or early 

stage 

Not started 

or early 

stage 

Not 

started/early 

stage 

In 

progress 

Early 

stage/ in 

progress 

In 

progress/ 

advanced 

In 

progress 

Early 

stage 

Not started Early 

stage 

Not started 

or early 

stage 

Early 

stage/ in 

progress 


Early 

stage/ in 

progress 

Advanced 

In 

progress/ 

advanced 

In 

progress/ 

advanced 

In 

progress/ 

advanced 

In 

progress/ 

advanced 

Early 

stage/ in 

progress 

The Consultant will update this assessment and consider also the situation in other river 

basins. The Consultant will focus on their mandate, their governance arrangements, their 

policies and corporate strategies, and their legal frameworks. One important issue to 

consider the compatibility between joint basin development plans and national plans., based 

on effective involvement of the riparian countries in the joint planning process. The regulatory 

3 NEPAD and AfDB, March 2005: NEPAD Short-Term Action Plan for Transboundary Water 

Resources. Framework for Implementation. Main Report. 

24



and institutional aspects emerging from the L/RBOs, particularly the overlap and potential 

multiplicity of policies, and the national level will be taken into account with regard to 

harmonization or realignment. Some rationalization/harmonization is important in the 

establishment of RBOs particularly as they cross RECs, which is the case for most of the 

major basins. In a parallel institutional structure, the RECs are the building blocks of regional 

integration for the AU. 

The Consultant will also formulate recommendations on the number of L/RBOs to be created 

within the horizon provided. 

A key point of contact for the review will be the Secretariat of the African Network of Basin 

Organizations (ANBO) 4 in Dakar, Senegal, as well as the selected L/RBOs. 

Review of policies and strategies at REC level 

Some RECs are not really active in the sector of TWRM. SADC, IGAD and ECCAS, were for 

example the only RECs to provide data on water projects during the second NEPAD STAP 

review in 2004. 

The roles of RECs in TWRM varies. One may consider three types of involvement: 

a. The SADC example: SADC has a protocol for shared water resources and is proactive in 

the creation of RBOs; 

b. The case where the REC can play a political role to strengthen cooperation between 

riparian countries of a river basin, or between two river basin organizations (example: the 

possibility of transferring of water between the Congo basin and Lake Chad is being 

addressed by ECCAS ); 

c. The Nile basin example, where RECs are not very much involved (except for Lake 

Victoria). 

The Consultant will contact all RECs and request for the existing policy and strategy 

documents, master plans and project information relating to TWRM. The Consultant will then 

review the existing regional plans relating to shared water resources such as the revised 

SADC protocol (1998) on Shared Water Resources and Management of Transboundary 

Waters, the ECOWAS Permanent Framework for Co-ordination and Monitoring of Integrated 

Water Resources Management (2004), the ECOWAS Action Plan for integrated Water 

Resources Management in West Africa. 

Reporting 

The review will include the drafting on a report on continental and regional policies, which will 

be part of Phase I Report. 

Task 1.2.2: Review of existing and planned regional TWRM infrastructure (“hard and 

soft”) 

Objective and analytical approach 

During this second part of the review, the consultant will analyze existing regional 

infrastructure, those under implementation and those that are in the pipeline. The term 

“infrastructure” is understood in the broad sense as it covers both “hard” and “soft” 

investments such as described in Section 2. 

4 created in July 2002 in Dakar, Senegal to promote IWRM in African river basins as a basis 

for sustainable socio-economic development and regional integration. ANBO is a technical 

advisory body of AMCOW on transboundary water management. 


25



The analysis will essentially address the following objectives: 

contribute to the review of regional and continental policies; 

determine the potential for improving the performance of the existing infrastructures for 

longer term development prospects; 

assess and identify regional infrastructure needs over the longer time frame; 

formulate the measures to be taken to improve the efficiency of implementation of 

programs for the development of regional infrastructures; 

enrich the Client’s information base. 

For each selected river basin, the consultant will analyze the projects in their geographical 

context using the GIS developed for each selected river basin (see the tools presented in 

section 3). The consultant will highlight and analyze the compliance of development 

prospects with policy objectives; analyzing possible conflicts, trade-offs and alignments to be 

carried out between objective priorities of regional transboundary water infrastructure and 

improvement of the associated services. 

The survey will be based on documentation provided by the Client and the stakeholders as 

well as the consultant’s own investigations. The consultant will take into account and build on 

existing or ongoing studies, in particular those listed in Annex II of the sector-specific TOR. 

Particular attention will be given to water quality issues, flood risks, water pollution and 

waterborne diseases, and groundwater over-exploitation. 

Review of existing infrastructures 

This review is closely related to the review of institutions, which is part of Task 1.2.1. The 

review will focus on: 

For each selected L/RBO, the existing development planning and implementation 

capacities, including the operational modelling tools and Decision Support Systems; 

The existing IWRM plans and investment programs; 

Physical infrastructures: 

major dams used for hydropower generation (in cooperation with the Energy Sector 

Study), irrigation, water supply, and flood control; 

major irrigation schemes or irrigated areas; 

major inter-basin water diversion projects; 

inter-basin water diversion projects; 

major lake and river transport infrastructure (in cooperation with the Transport Sector 

Team) 

Not all hydraulic infrastructures have significant transboundary hydrological implications. The 

existing infrastructures analyzed will be chosen so as to respond in the best possible way to 

the objectives of the proposed analysis, based in particular on the following criteria: 

the potential of the concerned infrastructure to serve as a regional multipurpose water 

source with relevance to the development prospects mentioned above; 

the representativeness of such infrastructure for the analysis of factors of inefficiency and, 

consequently, the formulation of corrective measures. 

For the chosen (“hard” and “soft”) infrastructures, the Consultant will: 


26



assess their contribution to reaching policy objectives; 

highlight how various factors constrain the efficiency of these infrastructures (e.g. the 

planning and quality of physical infrastructure, the quality of the institutional and regulatory 

environment, the quality and readiness of master plans and investment programs); 

determine the potential for improving the efficiency of these infrastructures and the role 

they could play in the future; 

draw lessons from the construction and operation of these infrastructures. 

Taking into account the resources available for the PIDA TWRM study, this task will mainly 

look at the key success factors, referring namely to the Shanghai conference on poverty, 

such as political commitment at all levels, institutional innovation, learning and 

experimentation, external catalyst and effective implementation. 

Review of regional infrastructure and projects/programs under implementation or 

preparation 

An inventory and review of the main regional projects and programs under implementation 

and preparation will be undertaken. As listed in the ToR, there are also more and more 

initiatives taking place in the Water Sector. These include for the TIGER Initiative (2020), the 

African Water Vision for Water, Life and Environment in the 21st Century, the Rural Water 

Supply and Sanitation Initiative in Africa (2005), the African Water Facility (2004), the UN 

Water African Forum, the EU Water Initiative (2002) and several other sub-regional initiatives 

and programs such as the Nile Basin Initiative launched in 1999. 

The review will give a particular attention to the NEPAD STAP projects and the projects 

funded by the AWF. This review will include a more detailed analysis of a set of projects and 

programs. 

Several L/RBO’s have already developed a pipeline of 'bankable' interventions. The review 

will include for each of the selected L/RBOs: 

existing strategies and action plans such as the Niger Action Plan, adopted at Heads of 

States level and which includes major storage infrastructure components; or the IWRM 

Congo Basin Strategic Action Plan; 

enabling environment projects or capacity development projects for increased regional 

cooperation (including AWF regional projects and STAP projects); 

major dams, diversions and irrigation schemes under implementation and/or preparation; 

regional programs relating to water pollution; 

The Consultant will develop a projects database with the collected information. The database 

will be developed with the data provided by the Client, the stakeholders and the data from 

the consultant’s own investigations. The Consultant will prepare a ‘project sheet’ for each of 

the projects, using a format that will be agreed upon with the Client during the discussion of 

the work plan presented in the proposal. A sample format has already been proposed by the 

Client in Annex III of the specific TOR. The Consultant will comment and review this 

proposed format and agree with the Client on the definitive format to be used. The consultant 

will submit the project sheets in an electronic medium and in the form of an Excel and/or 

Access file, to be agreed with the Client. The consultant will also provide a project brief along 

with the sheets, to be included in the Phase I Report, which will indicate the sources of 

information and specify, as appropriate, the items of information; The project brief will also 

summarize the situation of all of these projects (costs, nature, regions, status, etc.). 


27



Detailed analysis of a set of projects/programs 

The objective of this analysis will be to highlight the level of efficiency of implementation of 

regional infrastructure, strategies, and programs and the nature of limiting factors. The 

analysis 5 will cover, among others: 

the possible gaps between budgets and initial and present schedules; 

the factors causing such gaps; 

the conditions of coordination and decision-making on the key parameters of these 

projects (technical structure, planning, budget, role of various stakeholders in 

implementation); 

any other factor that impacted the efficiency of the process of preparation and/or 

implementation of the infrastructure concerned. 

This task will thus help learn lessons from the conditions of preparation and implementation 

of the projects considered. For the execution of this task, the Consultant will consult works 

conducted on the NEPAD STAP and the evaluations of its implementation, as well as other 

ongoing studies mentioned in Annex II of the ToR. The set of projects will be agreed upon 

between the Consultant and the Client and should prioritize a minimum of five projects 

including at least some projects retained as flagship projects in the STAP that are under 

preparation or implementation. 


The review will include the drafting on a report on existing and planned infrastructure, 

projects and programs, which will be part of Phase I Report. 

4.2.3 Task 1.3: Establishment of an outlook for the future and identification of 

choices challenges 

Task 1.3.1: Establishment of an outlook for the future 

Objective 

The objective of this task is first to establish the outlook for the future relating to water needs 

and resulting investment needs (hard and soft) in the TWR sector. The second objective is to 

assess the challenges that the regions (basins) and the continent will have to face in this 

sector. This will serve as a basis for the formulation of realistic long-term objectives, to be 

targeted by policies and programs at the continental level in order to anchor infrastructure 

development into regional integration and trade cooperation in Africa. 

The establishment of the outlook for the future will take place in two stages. First, the 

consultant will develop the parameters and assumptions for the projections, and produce a 

methodological brief for discussion at a joint validation workshop. After validation of the 

assumptions and methodology, the Consultant will proceed to the establishment of the 

outlook for the future. 

5 In view of the resources available for the PIDA TWRM study, this will not be a full 

evaluation in the sense generally used for project and program evaluation. 


28



Definition of the assumptions and preparation of a methodological brief 

Definition of Assumptions 

The Consultant will be particularly cautious in preparing the assumptions for the 

establishment of the outlook for the development of regional infrastructure, as well as the 

methodology to be used. The definition of assumptions on population growth and GDP 

increases are discussed in the general part of the Inception Report and will be achieved by 

the horizontal team. These assumptions are essential, as they will serve as a basis for the 

estimation of future water needs and the resulting investment needs. 

Methodological brief 

The TWR team will contribute to the production of the methodological brief such as described 

in the general section of the Inception Report. The first part of the brief will be produced by 

the horizontal team and will provide a methodology for macro economic outlook over the 

period 2010-2040. The second part will define and justify the methodology proposed for 

projecting the demand for services in each sector on the basis of the macro economic 

framework. In the case of the TWR Sector this will mainly be the demand for water for the 

various uses. 

As stated in the ToR, the consultant ’s methodological brief will analyze the following points: 

a. Factors,which may influence the trends of regional infrastructure development by 2040, 

including: 

Endogenous factors such as development visions and paths of different parts of the 

continent, the demand centres associated with the population increases, urbanization and 

the socio-economic development based on the exploitation of natural resources and 

regional integration; 

Exogenous factors such as emanating from the international discourse on environmental 

management, international agreements on water resources management, climate change 

and variable weather patterns. 

b. Quantified assumptions and parameters through which the results of the analysis of the 

aforementioned factors can be reflected. 

c. The Consultant will propose and justify his proposed forecast methodology and tools 

developed for establishing the outlook for the future. 

To establish the outlook for the future in terms of water needs, two approaches will be 

adopted: a demand-driven approach and a supply-driven approach. 

Demand-driven approach 

In the demand-driven approach, the consultant will analyze the possible options for water 

sources taking into account the demand scenarios based on simulated growth in the various 

sectors directly depending on available water resources. The water sector relates strongly to 

other sectors due to the central role of water resources in socio-economic development. The 

different sectors of industry, agriculture, domestic use, energy, navigation, transport, and 

environment are consequently considered as demand drivers. 


29



To assess future food demands, the Consultant will mainly refer to the FAO report “Demand 

for products of irrigated agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa”, published in 2006 6 . This report 

constitutes a sound basis for analysing the demand for irrigation development. 

The outlook for energy demands will be provided by the Energy Sector Team. 

Supply-driven approach: estimating the development potential 

In the supply-driven approach, the efforts will be put on the analysis of the development 

potentials in the selected basins. The Consultant’s approach will be to identify realistic 

development targets in each basin and to derive from there the needs for water resources 

mobilization. 

FAO is currently compiling the irrigation potential for all African countries and river basins 

(AQUASTAT). While nearly 40% of the world’s agricultural production (60 % of world’s 

cereal production) already comes from irrigated land, the figure in SSA is only 10%. At 

present, approximately 12 million hectares of land in Africa benefit from irrigation (as 

compared to over 250 million ha for the world), which is only about 20 % of the estimated 

potential. Insufficient water storage, low irrigation efficiencies at farmer’s level, and poorly 

managed irrigation water distribution systems create major hydraulic vulnerabilities. 

The irrigation potential in the selected basins are estimated as follows (FAO). 

River Basin Irrigated Irrigation 

potential* 

Senegal 118,150 420,000 

Niger 924,610 1,678,510 

Lake Chad 113,296 1,989,000 

Nile 5,078,604 8,000,000 

Congo 35,767 9,800,000 

Zambezi 146,869 3,160,380 

Okavango 0 208 060 

*upper limits estimated in 1999 

6,417.296 25,255.950 

These data are indicative and will be updated during the first phase of the sector study, 

taking into account climate change on the one hand and possible improvements of water use 

efficiency on the other hand. The irrigation potential will also be very dependent on the 

agreed definition of “reasonable use” of the river potential. This concept is normally a part of 

the international conventions negotiated between the riparian countries sharing and 

international River system. 

Besides the need to increase irrigated areas, the increase of irrigation efficiency (FAO slogan 

of “more crop per drop’) and water productivity (food production per cubic meter of water) is 

of utmost importance. FAO's International Action Program on Water and Sustainable 

Agricultural Development puts emphasis on increasing water use efficiency through 

modernization and improvement of existing irrigation schemes and rehabilitation of 

waterlogged and salinized irrigated lands. The IPTRID Program, a program initiated by The 

6 This report is part of a series of reports produced for a Collaborative Program on Investment in Agricultural 

Water Management for Poverty Reduction and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa carried out jointly by the 

WB, AfDB, IFAD, and IWMI. 


30



World Bank and now hosted by FAO, is promoting capacity building and technology transfer 

for increased water productivity in agriculture in cooperation with a large network of 

international research centers. 

The TWRM team will also estimate the feasible hydropower potential for each of the selected 

river basins. This will be achieved in cooperation with the experts of Energy Sector Team. 

Africa has a high potential for hydropower development. According to Aqua-Media 

international, the technically feasible potential is 1,303,250 GWh/year. Only 7,2 % of this is 

in operation and 92.8 % is still unexploited. 57.9 % of this potential is considered to be 

technically and economically feasible. As compared to the global hydropower production, the 

hydropower capacity in operation in Africa represents only 2.5 % of the capacity in operation 

in the world today. But compared to elsewhere in the world, there appears to be some 

acceleration in the planning and construction of new hydropower dams. Africa has 4.7 % of 

world’s hydropower capacity under construction and 18.2 % of planned capacity. 

Validation workshop 

A joint validation workshop, covering all sectors, will be organized by the Client and the 

Consultant, and will bring together stakeholders (especially the RECs , L/RBOs and AU 

specialized institutions/Sector Organizations) and resource persons (‘external experts’). The 

purpose of the workshop will be to discuss the methodological brief, and validate the 

assumptions and parameters proposed to guide the final projections. The methodological 

brief will be delivered one week before the workshop. 

Establishment of the outlook for the future 

After the validation workshop, the Consultant will finalize his projections for the Phase I 

Report. Using the models and tools described in the methodological brief and on the basis of 

the validated assumptions and parameters (validated during the validation workshop), the 

Consultant will make projections of potential regional and continental water needs (including 

the demand centres, volumes required and potential sources for the required resources). 


The analysis will include the drafting on a report on the outlook for the future, which will be 

part of Phase I Report. 

Task 1.3.2: Analysis of choices and challenges – defining objectives and targets 

The purpose of this task is to identify the key challenges that the region and the continent will 

have to face in the TWR sector and to propose a number of clear strategic objectives for the 

PIDA TWRM investment program. 

Identification of key issues and challenges 

Several key issues and challenges have already been identified by the African Water Vision 

2025. In addition to these key issues, there are a number of compounding issues that also 

have a significant impact on water resources in Africa. All these challenges and issues, 

which are not repeated here, will be considered and prioritized. At this stage, the following 

challenges or groups of challenges appear to be particularly relevant for the PIDA TWRM 

investment strategy and program: 

Multiplicity of transboundary water basins (60) and weak regional cooperation. This will 

probably need the creation of new L/RBOs and the strengthening of existing ones. Their 

role in investment planning, promotion, and coordination will need to be strengthened; 


31



Growing water scarcity, high spatial and temporal variability of rainfall and impact of 

climate change; lack of water security, and great vulnerability to floods and droughts. This 

will need investments to increase storage capacity and develop water diversions (supply 

policy) as well as to increase water use efficiency (demand policy); 

Growing environmental degradation; contamination of major shared water resources; 

Availability of human resources and capacity, inadequate information and knowledge base 

and planning capacities, and unreliable monitoring and evaluation systems. 

Setting objectives for the Infrastructure development framework and investment 

program 

From the analysis of priority challenges, the Consultant will propose a number of realistic 

objectives that African decision makers could set for their long-term regional and continental 

infrastructure development policies in the TWR sector. In so doing the Consultant will 

formulate realistic assumptions on the level of resources that could be available for 

supporting the development of physical assets in the sector. These objectives will be 

established on the basis of relevant indicators that reflect the outlook for the future and 

challenges identified in the preceding analysis. 

The PIDA TWRM investment program will contribute to eradicate poverty and achieve the 

Millennium Development Goals in Africa. The consultant will propose objectives which are 

also in line with the challenges addressed by the Africa Water Vision 2025 and by the African 

Water Facility. 

At this stage, possible specific objectives of the PIDA TWRM investment program could be 

listed as follows: 

to enhance regional cooperation by deploying the principles of Integrated Water Resource 

Management (IWRM) particularly for shared water resources through the L/RBOs and 

regional water protocols; 

to increase in a “secure” and “equitable” manner the availability of water resources for 

hydropower production, irrigated agriculture, domestic and industrial water supply, 

navigation, fisheries and protection of ecosystems; 

to help African countries adapting to and mitigating climate change impacts and variability 

in weather patterns; 

to help African countries to protect their environment and ecosystems in the spirit of 

IWRM; 

to help African countries to mitigate the social impacts of large infrastructures while 

sharing the benefits with the people who are directly concerned. 

In a “secure manner” means that the program should ensure water security to meet future 

increases in demand for water and enable the socio-economic development of the regions of 

the African continent. 

In an “equitable manner” means that the program should enable the equitable allocation of 

water resources among competing water uses for sustainable development. It also implies 

an equitable sharing of benefits arising from the shared basin resources. The most 

appropriate form of return and benefit sharing with the impacted population should also be 

part of the projects. 

The regional infrastructure development program should aim at providing water for the 

irrigation of several millions of hectares. This would require storage and distribution of billions 

of cubic meters of water. But this would also require multi-lateral and bilateral agreements 


32



between riparian states sharing the same river system. Because irrigation consumes 

(evaporates) huge quantities of water, irrigation development in upstream countries is indeed 

the main potential source of political tension or conflict. Because of the transboundary 

impacts of such infrastructure on the river flow regimes, this cannot be achieved peacefully 

without regional cooperation in the spirit of IWRM. One key objective of the soft interventions 

of the program will thus be to strengthen the instruments for joint planning, investment, 

operation and maintenance of major hydraulic infrastructures with transboundary impacts. 

For most basins considered, these mechanisms are still too weak, as the mandates and 

resources of the Basin Organizations are often too limited. 

Because of the high political sensitivity of the issue of impacts of large hydraulic 

infrastructure on neighbouring countries (mainly downstream and upstream countries on an 

international river), it is obvious that the political will and commitment at the highest level will 

crucial for the success of PIDA TWRM. But public support and political will for cooperation 

can only be achieved if the economic benefits of cooperation is fully understood and 

supported on the basis of the concept of “shared benefits”. Since public opinion is essential, 

investment in communication and popularization will thus be considered as very important. 

The final formulation of the specific program objectives will be agreed upon with the 

stakeholders. 

The tangible objectives of the program, namely in terms of additional volumes of water to be 

stored and the energy to be produced will be agreed upon with the Client and the 

stakeholders based on various scenarios proposed by the consultant. 

The economic added value of L/RBOs will have to be enforced. New models for PPP will be 

needed for the operation of large regional hydraulic infrastructures. The water services to 

users (irrigation and water supply) will have to be strengthened. The IWRM philosophy 

aiming at better coordination, dialogue, equity, participatory planning, and environmental 

protection, will have to be widely disseminated. 

Valuable return on investment will only be achievable if the water productivity (more crop per 

drop) of irrigated lands is significantly increased through ambitious capacity building 

investments, able to reach millions of farmers. 


The analysis will include the drafting on a report on the choices and challenges, which will be 


4.2.4 Task 1.4: Preparation of an outline program for the development of 

regional and continental infrastructure 

From the review of regional and continental infrastructure and the formulation of the outlook 

for the future, the Consultant will draft a preliminary outline infrastructure development 

program for the development and management of transboundary water resources to the 

2040 horizon. However this can only be very indicative at this stage since the outcome of the 

review of the existing situation and the proposed objectives have not yet been discussed with 

the stakeholders. 

The task will include three steps: 

Definition of a preliminary strategic framework 

A good starting point for the proposed strategic framework could be the existing structure of 

the AWF Operation Strategy and which are also the four pillars of the AWV 2025: 

Strengthening water governance 


33



Investments to meet water needs 

Strengthening the financial base 

Improving water knowledge 

The strategic framework will provide the basis on which the infrastructure development 

program can be developed, as well as addressing the issues relating to successful 

implementation. The framework will set out clear criteria for prioritizing both transboundary 

water basins and programs within those basins, having due regard to any existing criteria 

being applied in the choice of water resources development programs, or used to prioritize 

programs and projects. 

Preliminary outline of the investment program 

In this outline program, the following will be highlighted: 

Investment projects and programs by status (under execution, in current pipeline, new 

ideas); 

Institutional and legal framework (including sector policies) and other soft interventions 

that are required; 

This preliminary outline will include recommendations on the number of L/RBOs to be 

created within the horizon provided. The regulatory and institutional aspects emerging from 

the L/RBOs, particularly the overlap and potential multiplicity of policies, and the national 

level will be taken into account with regard to harmonization or realignment. 

Preliminary implementation strategy and cost estimation 

The outline will identify relevant implementation stakeholders. It will also provide a first 

approximative cost quantification as well as estimated deadlines. 

The outline will also indicate specific choice and decision-making issues, in particular 

regarding projects for which bankability is uncertain. 


This task will include the drafting on a report on the proposed outline program, which will be 


4.2.5 Task 1.5: Phase I reporting 

Task 1.5.1: Drafting Phase I TWRM sector report 

The Consultant will integrate the various reports produced by the TWRM team members on 

their respective tasks relating to the review and analysis of policies, institutions, legal 

frameworks, existing and planned projects, on the outlook for the future, on the choices and 

challenges, and on the preliminary outline program. 

Task 1.5.2: Integration of the four sector reports 

The TWRM Phase I Report will be integrated with the three other sector reports to constitute 

the Phase I Report. 


34



4.3 Tasks of Phase II: formulation of a draft strategic Framework, 

development program and implementation strategy 

The purpose of Phase II is to consult with stakeholders on the findings of Phase I, in order to 

develop a draft strategic framework, infrastructure development program, and 

implementation strategy and processes. 

There are broadly two components to Phase II: 

The preparation and holding of a strategic workshop to consult with RECs, L/RBOs and 

other stakeholders on the Phase I findings; 

The preparation of a draft final report containing the three outputs required from the study 

(strategic framework, infrastructure development program, implementation strategy and 

prcesses) 

Full engagement with the RECs will be essential, as the RECs, working closely with national 

governments, will be the main implementers of the final output of PIDA. It will also be 

important to engage with stakeholders at the continental level, for example the NEPAD Head 

of States and Government Implementation Committee. 

The aim of this phase is to help reach, through a sustained participatory and consultative 

process, and on the basis of previous studies, a consensus on the essential elements of a 

regional and continental TWR strategic framework (including sector policies), infrastructure 

development program, and implementation strategy and processes. 

4.3.1 Task 2.1: Preparation and holding of a Strategic TWR Sector workshop 

A core component of Phase II will be the holding of a Strategic TWR Sector workshop 

involving all key stakeholders. The workshop will be the venue for consulting with 

stakeholders at the political (decision making), technical and operational level on the findings 

of Phase 1 (needs, targets), and define a strategy to be later articulated in programs and 

projects. The workshop will focus on: 

The development of the overarching principles which should guide policy orientations and 

decisions on regional integration; 

Agreement with the stakeholders on the major challenges to be considered for the 

development of regional and continental infrastructure, based on the challenges identified 

in Phase I; 

Agreement with the stakeholders on the strategic objectives and orientations based on the 

objectives identified in Phase I. This includes the policies to be implemented at the 

regional and continental levels to meet the challenges. 

Task 2.1.1: Preparation of the workshop and of the workshop briefs 

Defining the structure of the workshop. 

In close collaboration with the Client, the consultant will agree on the organizations to be 

invited to the workshop, including at least the RECs, AMCOW, and L/RBOs. But there may 

also be a need to consult with other stakeholders at a continental level, such as the NEPAD 

Head of States and Government Implementation Committee. The consultant will also advise 

the Client on measures and programs most efficiently addressed at continental level. 

Preparation of briefs for the workshop 


35



In close collaboration with the Client, the consultant will prepare briefs to contribute to the 

workshop discussions. Such briefs, prepared on the basis of the Phase I Report, will include 

summaries of: 

The conclusions of reviews of regional policies and the implementation of infrastructure 

development programs; 

The conclusions of projections of needs in regional transboundary water resources 

infrastructure and associated services, and an analysis of coherence with sector policies 

and economic guidelines; 

A set of recommendations aimed at strengthening regional and continental policies on 

transboundary water resources infrastructure and associated services; 

The challenges and issues that should be addressed in the strategic framework for 

transboundary water resources, both to prioritise projects and programs, and to ensure 

successful implementation; 

Programme outline. 

Task 2.1.2: Participation in and/or facilitation of workshops. 

The TWR Sector team will assist the horizontal team in the preparation and facilitation of the 

validation workshop. More details on this task is provided in the general part of the Inception 

Report. 

Task 2.1.3: Production of the workshop proceedings 

After the workshop, the consultant will draft a workshop report and the workshop 

proceedings highlighting: 

the guidelines formulated by participants on the strategic framework /sector policies, 

infrastructure development program, and implementation strategy and processes; 

the agreed appropriate levels at which the measures and initiatives should be undertaken: 

continental or regional; 

the interfaces between the regional and continental levels on which to undertake these 

measures and initiatives 

issues on which participants could not reach a consensus; 

additional analyses brought forward and necessary for the consolidation of results. 

Reports on the sector workshops will be delivered to the Client within 1 week of the 

workshop being completed. 

4.3.2 Task 2.2: Formulation of a draft strategic final report 

Task 2.2.1 Formulation of a preliminary draft strategic framework (including sector 

policies) 

The consultant will: 

Carry out additional analyses needed to validate assumptions adopted during the 

workshop; 


36



Assist the Client to address issues on which agreement was not reached during the 

workshop; 

Review and if necessary reformulate the strategic objectives and sector policies taking 

into account the outcome of the workshop; 

Finalize a preliminary draft of an African TWRM Strategic Framework (including sector 

policies) on the basis of the guidelines formulated by the workshops and further analyses 

as necessary; 

Outline the measures and other propositions where a consensus was not reached. 

The output of this task will form part of the Phase II Report. 

Task 2.2.2 Formulation of a preliminary draft infrastructure development program 

The preliminary draft infrastructure development program will consist of a pipeline of regional 

projects and programs, composed of a balanced combination of hard and soft 

interventions/studies over the short, medium, and long-term horizons that is consistent with 

the strategic framework and sector policies. It will include: 

a prioritized list of regional projects (soft and hard) with cost estimations and timing, 

recommended implementation and operating arrangements over the three time horizons 

(2020, 2030, and 2040); 

a proposed first Priority Action Plan (PAP) including: 

projects and programs ready to go, for which the feasibility has been completed 

positively, the EIA and mitigation plans available, and the social and institutional aspects 

dealt with; 

newly identified short-term projects (mainly soft projects to build institutional capacity and 

prepare the next PAP and possibly ICT programs) 

The projects and programs will involve the extension or improvement of existing 

infrastructure, the construction of new infrastructure, and the strengthening of the enabling 

environment. 

The projects and programs will be prioritized in relation to the objectives that they are 

expected to help achieve. There will also be preliminary assessments to determine the 

relative importance of the expected project impacts and highlight possible conflicting 

objectives. Prioritization of projects is essential, as it will help to focus efforts on a realistic 

core of projects, and to build consensus among the stakeholders (including financing 

partners) around that core. Prioritization criteria will be proposed and progressively refined by 

the Consultant based on thorough discussions with program sponsors, RECs, L/RBOs, and 

other stakeholders. Ultimately the program sponsors will agree them. 

The preliminary draft infrastructure development program will include options and their 

rationale as may be necessary. The program will stem from the strategic framework 

(including sector policies) and particularly: 

the establishment of the outlook for the future, and the identification of strategic objectives 

and policies for the sector; 

the strategic guidelines and criteria formulated during the workshops, especially for the 

prioritization of projects and programs. 

Technical and political processes need to go hand in hand in arriving at agreement on a set 

of prioritized TWRM projects, based on sound technical and consensus-based proposals. 


37



Since the process of identifying, assessing and agreeing on a set of priority projects requires 

substantial negotiation and buy-in at a political level, the consultant will carefully consider 

options for the level of detail that is feasible. One option may be to establish a set of agreed 

core principles at a continental level, and promote policy development at a regional level. 

The formulation of a preliminary draft infrastructure development program will imply the 

following analyses: 

The coherence of projects and programs with the policy and strategic objectives of the 

TWR Sector; 

Preliminary assessments of the financial and economic viability of projects/programs to 

provide an initial criterion for their prioritization; 

Refinement of the prioritization criteria to include other relevant factors including (but not 

limited to): 

the contribution of each project/program to the attainment of objectives; 

the stage of development of each program (according to defined milestones); 

the prospects for financing. 

Role of stakeholders in program implementation, together with human resource availability 

and capacity building requirements; 

The need for complementary policy, institutional, or regulatory measures required to 

enable efficient and fruitful implementation; 

Potential environmental impact; 

Other risks and challenges to implementation. 


Task 2.2.3 Formulation of a preliminary draft implementation strategy and processes 

The Consultant will prepare a preliminary draft of “implementation strategy and processes”, 

based on the analysis of the potential barriers to implementation. Successful implementation 

of the infrastructure development program will depend on building a consensus among all 

stakeholders around a realistic platform of measures and projects. The implementation 

strategy and processes will involve the development of priority measures, resources and 

tools to support the successful implementation of PIDA, including: 

a. Priority actions to be undertaken in the period 2010-2020 in terms of both physical 

investments and associated measures required to secure successful implementation (e.g. 

policy, institutional, regulatory, financial, legal). This set of actions shall form the Priority 

Action Plan, which will replace the NEPAD STAP, and will be designed in a form to be a 

roll-over action plan. 

b. Respective roles of regional and continental entities and institutions in the implementation 

of the Priority Action Plan, and more generally in the preparation and implementation of 

further investment programs as well as in the elaboration and application of regional and 

continental policies. The study will review all institutional arrangements that affect the 

development and delivery of infrastructure services at the regional and continental levels, 

and will make recommendations on how they could be modified to improve infrastructure 

services. The recommendations will draw on the causal analysis undertaken in Phase I. 


38



c. How the regional and continental policies, entities and institutions could contribute to 

resolving the issue of financing proposed investments and their sustainability, covering 

both construction and operation and maintenance of the infrastructure. 

d. Mobilizing regional and external financing and private sector participation. The study will 

address the mobilization of funding within the region, and from development partners and 

the private sector. The existing situation will be evaluated, and projections made of the 

likely financial resource envelopes for regional infrastructure projects, based on an 

analysis of past trends and other relevant factors. We will produce scenarios of future 

financial resources within which development projects and programs can be prioritized. 

These projections will be based on realistic assumptions, and, as far as possible, 

innovative ways of finding solutions to these recurrent issues. We will propose measures 

likely to help mobilize private sector participation in infrastructure, and strengthen 

cooperation with international development partners. 

e. Civil society participation in the preparation and implementation of proposed measures in 

terms of policies as well as physical investments. In this context, we will propose 

communication and dissemination measures that regional and continental entities and 

institutions shall undertake in order to enhance civil society participation. 

f. Defining an implementation and monitoring process: This involves proposing to 

stakeholders, the mechanisms and tools to: 

review and update over time the strategic framework and infrastructure development 

program; 

actively manage the roll-over Priority Action Plan. 

With respect to the action plan, this will mainly consist of knowing how to initiate and 

complete an action, as well as how to monitor the progress of the action. This process will 

include: 

a. Capacity building: The formulation of recommendations for the institutional capacity 

building of continental and regional entities responsible for monitoring, coordinating and 

managing the implementation of the agreed measures and actions (while implementation 

of the recommendations will be the direct responsibility of the entities concerned, and will 

be carried out outside this study). 

b. Monitoring mechanism. Starting from the work already done to design the NEPAD Project 

Management System (NPMS), and the upgrading of this system under MLTSF, we will 

assess the adequacy of the present data base as an effective monitoring mechanism, and 

formulate observations, comments and recommendations on its upgrading to the extent 

that this is assessed to be necessary. The final design and implementation of any 

improved monitoring mechanism will be carried out separately from this study. 


4.3.3 Task 2.3 Phase II reporting 

Task 2.3.1.: Drafting Phase II TWRM sector report 

The Consultant will integrate the various reports produced by the team members on their 

respective tasks relating to the preliminary strategic framework, the preliminary investment 

program, and the preliminary implementation strategy and processes. 


39



Task 2.3.2: Integration of the four sector reports 

The TWRM Phase II Report will be integrated with the three other sector reports to constitute 

the Phase II Report. 


40



5. WORKPLAN AND TIMELINE 

As stated in the general part of the report, the proposed time line would be as follows: 








The scheduling of each task is presented hereafter in the form of GANNT Charts for Phase I 

and Phase II. 


41




42




43




6.1 Expertise of the team 

A team of seven experts has been mobilized for the study, with a total input of 33 

manmonths. The team has the full range of expertise required: 

Integrated Water Resources Management and Integrated River Basin 

Management; 

Hydropower; 

Irrigation; 

Water supply and sanitation; 

Flood management; 

Groundwater resources management; 

Environment; 

Hydrology; 

Finance of infrastructure projects 

GIS, data management and modelling; 

6.2 Cross-sectoral synergies 

The consultant will have due regard to cross-sectoral linkages and synergies. 

Hydropower development will be related to the energy sector-specific study. Inland 

waterways and lake transport will be related to the transport sector study. 

For both cross-sectoral linkages, close cooperation between the experts involved in 

the different sector studies will be organized and managed for data sharing, joint 

analysis of existing and planned projects, prioritization of projects and programs, etc. 

6.3 Tasks assignments 



one and four weeks, and more than four weeks. The total number of manmonths for 



44




45



ICT SECTION 



INCEPTION REPORT/ ICT SECTION 


TABLE OF CONTENTS ...........................................................1 

ICT SECTOR .......................................................................3 

1. SECTOR BACKGROUND ................................................................. 3 

1.1. The Stakes ..................................................................................3 

1.2. ICT and Africa ..............................................................................3 

1.2.1.The Continent................................................................................................ 3 

1.2.2.The land locked countries: An archipelago of islands .................................... 4 

1.2.3.The development of ICT in Africa is a driver for economic development but remains a 

burden for the fragile populations. ................................................................. 5 

2. OBJECTIVES, SCOPE AND EXPECTED OUTPUTS OF THE PIDA ICT STUDY ..... 7 

2.1. The Study’s Objectives and scope.......................................................7 

2.1.1.Objective of the study.................................................................................... 7 

2.1.2.Scope and Specific Objective of the Study for ICT Sector ............................. 7 

2.2. Expected outputs of the PIDA ICT Study................................................7 

2.2.1.Facilitate continental and regional integration................................................ 8 

2.2.2.Support the reduction of ICT cost for the consumer....................................... 8 

2.2.3.Sustainable Infrastructures............................................................................ 9 

3. METHODOLOGY AND ANALYTICAL APPROACH................................... 10 

3.1. PIDA ICT Study Strategy................................................................. 10 

3.2. Time Horizons ............................................................................ 12 

3.3. Relationship with the Recs ............................................................. 13 

3.4. Data collection and tools ............................................................... 13 

3.4.1.Data collection............................................................................................. 13 

3.4.2.Data to be Collected.................................................................................... 13 

3.4.3.Tools to be developed ................................................................................. 14 

4. WORK BREAKDOWN AND DETAILED TASKS DESCRIPTION ...................... 18 

4.1. Phase I Diagnosis and in-depth analysis .............................................. 18 

4.2. Task 1.1 : Review and analysis of the situation ..................................... 18 

4.2.1.Task 1.1.1 Collecting data and state of the ICT market ............................... 18 

4.2.2.Task 1.1.2 Initiation of continental and regional observatories..................... 20 

4.2.3.Task 1.1.3 Initialization of a continental and regional infrastructures atlas... 21



4.3. Task 1.2. Review of Continental and regional policies (A1) ....................... 22 

4.3.1.Objectives ................................................................................................... 22 

4.3.2.Task 1.2.1 Collection of Regional Policies and regulatory frameworks ........ 22 

4.3.3.Task 1.2.2 Analysis of the existing regional policies .................................... 24 

4.3.4.Task 1.2.3 Analysis of regional regulation bodies and legal and regulatory 

environments............................................................................................... 26 

4.4. Task 1.3 Review of Regional Infrastructures (A2) ................................... 28 

4.4.1.The Task’s Environment.............................................................................. 28 

4.4.2.Objective of the task.................................................................................... 28 

4.4.3.Task 1.3.1 Identification and Analysis of existing infrastructures ................. 30 

4.4.4.Task 1.3.2 Identification of projects under implementation and preparation. 30 

4.4.5.Task 1.3.3 Detailed analysis of a set of regional infrastructure projects....... 31 

4.5. Task 1.4 Establishment of the outlook for the future and identification of 

challenges (B) ............................................................................ 32 

4.5.1.Objectives ................................................................................................... 32 

4.5.2.Task 1.4.1. Establishment of an outlook for the future (B.1)......................... 32 

4.5.3.Task 1.4.2 Analysis of choices and challenges (B.2) ................................... 36 

4.5.4.Task 1.4.3 Preparation of an outline programme (B3) ................................. 37 

4.6. Task 1.5 Phase I Report ................................................................. 38 

4.6.1.Task 1.5.1: Drafting Phase I ICT sector report............................................. 38 

4.6.2.Task 1.5.2: Integration of the four sector reports ......................................... 38 

4.7. Phase II Formulation of a draft strategic framework, programme and 

implementation strategy ............................................................... 38 

4.7.1.Background................................................................................................. 39 

4.8. Task 2.1 Strategic workshops .......................................................... 40 

4.8.1.Task 2.1.1 Preparation and holding of sector workshops............................. 40 

4.8.2.Task 2.1.2 Preparation of briefs for strategic the workshops........................ 40 

4.8.3.Task 2.1.3 Formulation of o preliminary draft Strategic framework .............. 41 

4.8.4.Task 2.1.4 Formulation of a preliminary draft Infrastructure development programme 

41 

4.8.5.Task 2.1.5 Formulation of a preliminary implementation strategy and processes 

44 

4.8.6.Task 2.1.6 Phase II Report.......................................................................... 45 

5. WORKPLAN AND TIMELINE........................................................... 46 

6. HUMAN RESOURCES DEPLOYMENT ................................................. 48 

6.1. Expertise of the team ................................................................... 48 

6.2. Tasks assignments ....................................................................... 48 


2



ICT SECTOR 

1. SECTOR BACKGROUND 

1.1. The Stakes 

The communications sector (ICT) in Africa is in full development thanks to the introduction of 

mobile phone services all over the continent. 

The real future stake is the access to the internet. To this end, it is essential that the African 

continent: 

Develop sustainable infrastructures capable of handle the short and long term needs 

Extend the supply 

Reduces the cost of use by consumers 

Develop an investment-friendly environment needed for the development of 

infrastructures and services 

1.2. ICT and Africa 

Findings 

Africa is seen form an ICT perspective as an isolated island 

The development and usage of the mobile in Africa is a burden for the most fragile population 1 

Reducing or targeting investments in order to develop sustainable and structuring infrastructures 

The development and use of ICTs in Africa is essentially based on the mobile phone with a 

multitude of parallel infrastructures (redundant in part). In fact, the different operators have 

deployed « similar » infrastructures in the same places. This situation, is evidence that an 

important part of the investment amounts could have been saved or better used by sharing. 

Moreover, parts of these infrastructures (radio backbones) may not be viable in the mid and 

long terms since they are not able to handle the broadband development. 

1.2.1. The Continent 

The African Continent is a region with few submarine cables, which are essential to the 

current development of the sector, expansion of broadband and the only sustainable 

infrastructure capable of transporting to the web the requests from consumers. Today, 

despite the commissioning of new cables in 2009/2010 (EASSy in the East, MainOne in the 

West), the African continent falls short of broadband capacity, which partially explains the 

high cost of using voice services (fixed and mobile) and data (mainly Internet). 

1 BAD Perspective économique en Afrique 2009 vol2 - TIC.pdf (page 120) 


3



The intra-African interconnection process is being completed outside Africa: (Europe, USA). 

Deprived of Data Centres and INX (Internet Node Exchange), intra-continental traffic seek 

the USA or Europe before going back to the African continent engendering additional cost 

and using broadband for no purpose. 

Until 2010, this traffic took place essentially via satellites, which provide very low-capacity 

broadband and are therefore incapable of meeting the increasing demand of traffic in 

addition at a very high Mbps cost. Today, particularly on the East coast, the deployment of 

submarine cables (EASSy…) has helped improve the connection of the region’s countries, 

which would, among other things, reduce consumer rates, and cost of connection thanks to 

land backbones used in parallel. 

Authors Authors eGY-Africa 

Recent studies show that traffic to and from Africa ‘costs’ users each year between 300 and 

400 million € to the benefit of ‘non-African players’. A good part of this financial windfall 

leaves Africa to be consolidated on another continent. 

Yesterday The world in progress (EASSY-e-Nepad) 

1.2.2. The land locked countries: An archipelago of islands 

A good number of countries are isolated and may not have access to this ‘rare’ resource 

(submarine cable) without crossing (transit) coastal countries . This is a major short-term 

challenge which, if not solved, would be at the origin of a 2 nd digital divide between the 

‘connected’ countries and the isolated ones. 

The case of Rwanda, Burundi and Uganda 

The diagrams below show how recently the isolation of Rwanda and Uganda has been broken thanks 

to the submarine cable EASSy on the East coast and the related synchronized land project. The 

facilities have allowed the transfer and transit of internet traffic by 88% to EASSy via optical fiber 

connected to Ouganda. This case is a perfect example of the submarine cable’s complementarity – 

trans-border land infrastructures. What remains is studying the impact on rates which is part of the the 

PIDA Study. 


4



Source : PIDA ICT C de Jacquelot (capture Robtex le 4 juin 2010) 

1.2.3. The development of ICT in Africa is a driver for economic 

development but remains a burden for the fragile populations. 

The African Development Bank’s report on Economic Perspectives in Africa 2009 highlights 

the fact that pan-European groups increasingly dominate the commercially successful GSM 

operations in Africa. They place a heavy financial burden on the most fragile populations. Up 

to 70% of their available monthly revenues can be spent on mobile communication without 

being at the origin of its development. 

Internet access, which is a major challenge for economic development in Africa, must be 

addressed as is found in the latest ITU report (Information Society Statistical Profiles 2009 

Africa): 

“The fixed line sector remains very limited and is stagnating, which also constraints fixed 

broadband deployment through ADSL, the world’s most widely deployed fixed broadband 

technology. In addition, there are practically no cable networks and many countries are 

facing a shortage of international Internet bandwidth. As a result, fixed broadband 

penetration is low and broadband prices are beyond the reach of the majority of the 

population. The large majority of countries (22 out of 32 included in the ICT Price Basket) 

have fixed broadband prices that correspond to more than 100 per cent of their monthly GNI 

per capita” 


5



Source : Perspectives économiques en Africa © BAfD/OCDE 2009 page 120 


6



2. OBJECTIVES, SCOPE AND EXPECTED OUTPUTS OF THE 

PIDA ICT STUDY 

2.1. The Study’s Objectives and scope 

2.1.1. Objective of the study 

The ACU, NEPAD Secretariat and AfDB are jointly leading an initiative named the 

Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA). The global objective of PIDA 

is to facilitate increased regional integration in Africa through improved regional and 

continental infrastructure. According to the general TORs PIDA will: 

Establish a strategic framework for the development of regional and continental 

infrastructure in four sectors (Energy, Transport, Information and Communication 

Technologies (ICT), and Transboundary Water Resources), based on a development 

vision for Africa, strategic objectives and sector policies; 

Establish an infrastructure development programme covering a time period up to 2030 

using the strategic framework/sector policies; and 

Prepare an implementation strategy and processes, including in particular a priority action 

plan. 

2.1.2. Scope and Specific Objective of the Study for ICT Sector 

The sector-specific TOR set the objectives for the ICT work: 

Establishing a harmonized policy, legal and regulatory frameworks at the regional and 

continental levels to develop an attractive and positive market for investment and to foster 

the sustainable development of ICT infrastructure in African regional markets; 

Accelerating the development of integrated infrastructures that will help bridge the digital 

divide, i.e. foster access to reliable and quality ICT services that will be affordable for the 

greatest number of the population in Africa; 

Promoting e-applications and services aimed at improving government services (egovernment), 

education (e-education), trade and business (e-commerce), and other social 

services, and the performance of the other productive sectors of the economy; 

Increasing global competitiveness of Africa by reducing the costs of services and enabling 

the integration of Africa into the global economy; 

Capacity building (in ICT skills) and innovation systems including centers of excellence; 

Reducing or eliminating transit of intra and interregional traffic out of the continent. 

2.2. Expected outputs of the PIDA ICT Study 

The priority of the sector is to: 


7



2.2.1. Facilitate continental and regional integration 

2.2.1.1. Connecting Africa to the rest of the world and interconnecting 

African countries 

The Study’s primary stake is to define a political and regulatory environment suitable for the 

development of sustainable infrastructures based on guidelines for large-scale continental 

and regional infrastructures to be developed and which are required for the development of 

bandwidth. 

To do so, the following actions are needed: 

Adjust regional policies and the regulatory environment which represent the fundamental 

platform for the development of ICT in Africa in order to: 

Optimize investments to be carried out by privileging private investments as well as 

framing them 

Reducing the cost of usage through an environment where tariffs are ‘cost oriented’. 

Ending the isolation of the continent, the regions and the countries namely those of the 

centre in order to help all Africans have access to at least one connection to submarine 

cables and to neighbouring countries. 

A top priority: cobwebbing Africa 

Deploying and developing infrastructures with continental and regional dimensions able to 

move about broadband and transport the bandwidth to be generated in the medium and 

long terms without questioning investments in costly infrastructures. 

2.2.2. Support the reduction of ICT cost for the consumer 

Reducing rates and their components is a priority objective, as it will help: 

Increase dialogue between countries of the same region 

Facilitate the access of most consumers to the internet 

Reducing the cost of usage (Wholesale and Retail) will require among other things: 

A better use of available or planned infrastructures (sharing). 

Setting up policies, legal and regulatory frameworks which, while leaving initiatives to the 

private sector, must be capable of regulating the market. To achieve such goals, good 

governance of the national regulators plays an important role and is therefore impossible 

to ignore. 


8



Lac k of 

regula to ry 

Reduce the costs of services 

Retails 

tariffs 

Wholesale 

tariffs 

Infrast ructure 

and bandwidth 

tariffs 

U ns uitab le 

infras truc tu res 

2.2.3. Sustainable Infrastructures 

The way 

Efficient 

regulatory 

Efficient 


Retails tariffs 

Whol esal e tariffs 

I nfrastructureand bandwidth 

tariffs 

« Increasing global competitiveness of Africa by reducing the costs of services » 

PidaICT Tor 

The lessons learned from other continents and some African countries stress the fact that 

only a robust and developing infrastructure based on the use of optical fibre in the 

backbone infrastructure will be the viable solution in the medium and long terms. To 

be performing, these optical infrastructures must be as close of the users as possible. The 

last link can be either fixed or radio. 

The case of France: Alternative Infrastructures and the Development of Broadband 

The diagram below shows how the three most powerful alternative operators in France use and 

mutualize alternative infrastructures to compete with the incumbent operator 

The alternative infrastructures are partially provided by the road network and railways. The operators 

have developed the missing links since 1998 and often through mutualization as the incumbent 

operator offered at that time wholesale prices for the rented links. These were not economically 

reasonable. 


9



3. METHODOLOGY AND ANALYTICAL APPROACH 

3.1. PIDA ICT Study Strategy 

The Consultants will focus on the following essential issues: 

More active regional policies on land management 

Harmonization of regional infrastructure policies in order to reach continental and regional 

coherence. 

Consolidating and harmonizing the legal and regulatory environment as a monitoring tool. 

Infrastructures and impacts on continental and regional integration Target sectors 


10



The phrase « existing or being deployed continental and regional infrastructures must 

be understood in both senses: hard and soft (complementary measures). 

Within the framework of the PIDA Study, the Consultant’s focus and analysis are on 

the transmission links, which have the greatest impact on continental and regional 

integration. They may take also into consideration some components when they 

interfere with smooth operations at the regional and continental levels. (example of 

Websecurity). 

3.1.1.1. Physical Infrastructure 

The infrastructures identified as having a continental or regional integration objective 

are specifically: 

Infrastructures allowing access to submarine cable stations 

‘Corridor’ infrastructures (optical links across a country) 

The link between two neighbouring countries 

All or part of a national infrastructure required for the preceding countries 

Interconnection 

Transit Internet Interconnection Nodes INX (IXP) and POP/teleHouse (points 

interconnection and/or exchange of traffic between operators) at regional and/or 

national levels as well as meshing of these nodes (interconnection). 

3.1.1.2. Dematerialized Infrastructures or connects 

The targeted sectors are primarily: 

The legal and regulatory environment for the issues related to the setting up and 

use of hard infrastructures as described earlier. 

Consolidation of governance and the regulators’ capacity in the specifically 

targeted points. 

Capacity building in terms of planning and implementation of the project 

Capacity building, the development and use of economic models for the regulation 

of wholesale and retail tariffs 

The development of databases, the setting up of a data collecting process, the 

setting up of observatories (market, traffic…) 

Encouraging the development of applications and content dedicated to Africa (eusage 

and e-applications) as well as the related data centres 

The strengthening of the security of the infrastructure and internet (Websecurity) 

To do so, the consultants will share their views with the 4 major regional integration 

drivers, which are: 

The continental organizations (UA, UAT, …) and regional (Recs) and to a lesser 

degree the national authorities 

Regional regulators’ associations and the NRA 

Infrastructures and potential suppliers of alternative infrastructures (roads, 

railways, energies, municipalities…) 

The players (operators, ISP) operating in Africa or international operators 

(wholesale operators (Internet Wholesale connectivity). 


11



To attain such objectives, the Consultant will prioritize the investments targeted by 

the study. He will ensure that the programs are coherent over time and are 

implemented in the proper sequence since the absence or failure (failure of 

performance) of one link may ruin the entire project because of incoherence or 

dysfunction. 

3.2. Time Horizons 

PIDA’s terms of reference provide two time horizons for the ICT sector. 

The ICT sector is a dynamic sector essentially driven by market demand. Generally, 

as soon as a service is provided, it reaches saturation level in a very short time since 

the traffic generated by such services cannot be absorbed by the available 

infrastructure, which has been sized before the existence of such new services. 

As discussed with the Panel of experts and the AfDB during the meeting of 

June17th, 2010 in Tunis, it was agreed that the ICT sector’s perspectives be 

readjusted to take into consideration the sector’s dynamism and to help PIDA 

Study be more coherent with the evolutions and perspectives of the sector. 

Perspectives ToR PIDA Study 

Short term - 2010-2012 

Medium term 2010-2020 2012-2015 

Long term 2020-2030 2015-2020 


12



It is not realistic to try to imagine what demand will be like beyond 2020 as the 

services on offer, market demand and the technologies used will differ from those 

existing today. It is therefore relevant to analyze what happened and what is 

happening in Europe and the developing countries such as India, China. The 

explosion of services and demand generated an important growth of traffic requiring 

an alomost daily adjustment of infrastructure in order to meet these demands 

and the quality expected by private and professional consumers. 

3.3. Relationship with the Recs 

The Consultant will work closely with the RECs as concerns data collection They will 

be the interface of the Consultant with the institutions in charge of ITC in the 

countries (National Regulatory Agencies NRA). 

3.4. Data collection and tools 

3.4.1. Data collection 

The experience of the consultants shows that if the necessary data is not available it 

is impossible to: 

Analyze the policies and regulatory environments without analyzing the impact on 

the markets 

Calibrate or mobilize hard infrastructures without knowing what they will transport 

in the short, medium and long terms. 

Analyze the use cost without having an idea on the rates (Wholesale and retail) 

implemented by the players 

Calculate the profitability of investments if it is not possible to know the volumes to 

be transported and the generated revenues. 

To set up the regulation tools. 

3.4.2. Data to be Collected 

Data collecting will be initiated in Phase 1 and will continue during the Study because 

of the market’s dynamism and the difficulty 2 of collecting data in Africa. 

The types of data collected are many and the list provided is not exhaustive and will 

be adjusted according to the needs and the collectable data. 

3.4.2.1. Market Data 

The market data are of 2 types : 

Regulatory and legal data 

Licenses attributed by countries and rates 

Regulatory rates (interconnection,…) 

Operators data 

The number of consumers per service (landline, mobile, Internet ,broadband,..) 

Rates 

2 Lesson learned from HIPPSA 


13



3.4.2.2. Cost Data 

The ‘Cost’ data include those of the sub-groups making up the infrastructures. 

Cost of civil engineering and construction (ditches, mats, buildings,....) 

Cost of optical cables 

Cost of active equipments 

Cost of labour 

Within the framework of collecting data, the Consultant : 

Will start from available data bases, 

Set up a process for the collecting and updating of data based on the Recs 

Consolidate the data available to the sector’s consultants 

Seek additional data from players (operators, suppliers of equipments) such as 

the cost of equipment. 

Méthodology and out-puts for market data and infrastructure collection 

3.4.3. Tools to be developed 

3.4.3.1. Implementation of a GIS for the PIDA study 

All the collected data related to infrastructure will be introduced in a Geographical 

Information System, which will help develop a dynamic Atlas. 

The main targeted infrastructures are: 

Submarine cables and stations 

Regional Backbones 

National Backbones with regional components 

Internet Node Exchange (INX) 

This data base map will be prepared on three levels: 

Continental, 

Regional 

And national 


14



It will be an atlas of the infrastructures mobilized and identified by all the operators 

and alternative players (Energy, transport and other) and would take into 

consideration the short-term projects underway. 

This atlas will include two additional parts related to: 

The links identified as missing and necessary for the integration of all the African 

countries into the global ICT world and whose development will be a priority. 

A prospective vision for the development of these infrastructures over 5 and 10 

years. 

Additional data (physical capacity, bandwidth) will complete this atlas. 

3.4.3.2. Analytical models 

Sources P Hamilton-M Jensen-AICD-ITU 

One of the components of the PIDA Study is to properly sequence the proposed 

infrastructures in order to ensure regional and long term development of ICT use on 

the African continent. 

For that reason, three models will be developed to during the Study: 

A traffic model 

An infrastructure cost model; and 

An infrastructure cost effectiveness model. 


15



Traffic model 

The objective of this model is to model traffic coming from the various ICT services to 

use these infrastructures. It will help the calibration of infrastructures based on: 

Current traffic, data potentially coming from data bases) 

Scenarios for evolution of traffic in the medium and long terms related to: 

Evolution of the number of consumers/service 

Evolution of the volume by consumer 

Emergence of new services 

The traffic model can be based on models developed and implemented within other 

programs and particularly on the e-NEPAD projects. . 

It will have different sensitivity levels in order to accommodate the forecasting of high 

and basic traffic in accordance with the number of service users and bandwidths 

required by such services. This model will be used in a more global way in phase B2. 

The Infrastructure Cost Model 

The Infrastructure Cost Model aims at modelling the cost of one infrastructure with 

variables such as: 

Traffic to be transported in the short/medium and long terms in order to ensure the 

project’s sustainability 

Choices and quantifications of passive and active elements making up the 

infrastructure: 

The number of optical fibres in the cable 

The cost of civil engineering, buildings, mats, energy station,… 

Size of the infrastructure ( Km ,….) 

Active equipments in the short and medium terms 

Cost of facility 


16



This model is very similar to the tools used by manufacturers of equipments or 

companies providing assistance for project control. It is therefore based on a Top- 

Down approach 

Infrastructure Cost-effectiveness Model 

The Infrastructure Profitability Model aims at modelling the low assumptions (cost of 

traffic and services) to be selected in order to ensure the project’s profitability in the 

medium and long terms. 

Return unit cost of the services using the infrastructure (cost-oriented) 

Traffic to be transported in the short/medium and long terms in order to ensure the 

project’s profitability (projecting traffic in the short, medium and long terms). 

This type of model is similar to the tools used by National Regulation Authorities for 

the management of wholesale and retail tariffs. 


17



4. WORK BREAKDOWN AND DETAILED TASKS 

DESCRIPTION 

4.1. Phase I Diagnosis and in-depth analysis 

The Consultant will conduct a two-fold review of: (i) the regional and continental ICT 

infrastructure development policies; and (ii) the development of regional and 

continental ICT infrastructure (in operation, under implementation or planned) as well 

as associated services. 

4.2. Task 1.1 : Review and analysis of the situation 

Setting up a short; medium and long terms master plan for the ICT infrastructures at 

the continental and regional levels will require: 

Beginning situation of the continental and regional policies in terms of framing 

environments expected to enhance the development of infrastructures. 

Beginning situation of the organizations and players involved directly or indirectly 

with the development of continental or regional infrastructures 

Analysis of the legal and regulatory frameworks impacting the ‘infrastructure’ 

segments specified as having continental or regional aspect. 

A first overview of the state of development of the different markets making up the 

sector. 

An inventory of the hard ‘infrastructures’ already deployed, being deployed or 

scheduled in the short term. 

This part will help the consultants to have a good overview of the situation and a 

good knowledge of action undertaken in the past or scheduled in the short term. 

4.2.1. Task 1.1.1 Collecting data and state of the ICT market 

A continental, regional and national data base will be initiated within the framework of 

the PIDA Study . This tool will be provided to the beneficiaries of the project and will 

help set up an observatory in the short and medium terms. This observatory can be 

developed through a specific program. 

4.2.1.1. Task 1.1.1.1 Collecting data from the ICT Institutions and 

from “the market” 

Geographical Level 

Data will be collected at three levels: 

At continental level 

This analysis will highlight the situation of the African continent and will help measure 

the gap to be bridged in order connect the continent to the digital world. 

At regional level 

The comparative analysis at regional level will help identify the best performing 

regions and identify the structural developments behind the best practices as well as 

the necessary structural adjustments to be made at the level of the less performing 

regions in order to reach global adjustment. 


18



At national level 

The analysis of the best performing markets at the national level will help identify the 

reasons of their success and suggest the adjustments necessary for the less 

performing countries. 

The Consultant will regularly analyze the gaps between the existing data (ITU, AICD) 

which are often outdated as they are at least one year old, and data coming from the 

Market that are closer to the reality. 

Collecting at Recs Level 

As part of the “Market Data” collection involving the various countries via RECs, the 

consultants will develop the related collecting forms and processes. 

Knowing from experience the difficulty of developing and operating this approach, the 

consultants will carry out the collecting of data in various phases in order to secure 

the data collection and set up a process between RECs and regulators. If necessary 

and acceptable by PIDA Stakeholders, the Consultant will provide the RECs with 

strengthening capacities advices. 

For these purposes the consultants will: 

Set up the methodology and tools necessary for data collection from the RECs 

and the regulators. 

Launch the data collection process in advance in order to be able to collect as 

quickly as possible some of the basic data. 

Further, develop the Data Collection methodology to provide an update at regular 

periods (3 months for the data most sensitive to the sector’s fluctuations such as: 

the number of subscribers per service or tariffs). 

4.2.1.2. Task 1.1.1.2 Consolidating existing data 

The data that will be consolidated come from several sources: 

AICD 

Within the framework of the AICD program, the World Bank has collected data of 

interest. 

The data useful to the Study are essentially related to optical infrastructure. 

This data has been transferred by AICD to the PIDA Study. 

It is important to note that the consolidation may not be feasible if for Licence rights 

reasons, there are some missing “non transferable” data. 

ITU 

ITU collects from governments some data on the ICT sector. Its website provides an 

accessible database. The Consultant will give ta special attention to data coming 

from ITU. 

Like AICD, ITU’s website has the tools which allow access to a large number of data 

and information on the ICT sector. 

In 2005 the ITU published an Atlas of the optical infrastructures “Study on the 

Infrastructures of Information and Comunication Technologies in Central, Western 

and Northern Africa” (Mrs Bassave, Irzouni, Kamdem)( March 2005.) 


19



The ITU data are consolidated with a delay of one to two years, which limits 

their use 

ICT “eye” 

The ICT “eye” website is an ICT data base providing indicators and statistics on the 

market, the profile of policies and regulators 3 . 

NEPAD e-Africa Commission 

Here the same Licence Rights issue has to be raised by the Consultant. Therefore, 

the Consultant advises that discussions between the PIDA Consulting Team and the 

eNEPAD have take place.. 

At RECs level 

The collected data from RECs will be consolidated in a database with progressive 

transfer of responsibility to the RECs if possible. This is part from the Consultant 

proposal to provide advice on strengthening capacities. 

As a matter of fact, although the task seems simple, it presents the highest risks of 

impossibility for the RECs to consolidate the data if : 

The actual national legal and regulatory frameworks doesn’t force the ICT actors 

(operators, ISP) to provide their data to the national regulatory authorities 

The NRA do not forward the data to the RECS. 

In this case, The Consultant would propose solutions on adjusting the legal and 

regulatory frameworks where necessary. 

RECs and regulatory authorities’ reinforcement programme 

In order to minimize the risk of failure and set up the sustainable tools at continental, regional 

and national levels (regulators), it would be appropriate in this phase of the project to provide 

the players (Recs, regulators) with a “capacity building” program in: 

- Collecting market data (methodology and frequency) 

- Data processing and setting up an observatory 

- Processing useful data in the regulational process 

4.2.2. Task 1.1.2 Initiation of continental and regional observatories 

The data collected will help to build up a embryonic observatory that will provide us 

with a graphic vision of the sector supported with figures in order to monitor 

evolutions over time and assess the impact of actions undertaken. 

The objectives of the creation of an Observatory are mainly: 

Market analysis at three levels: Continental, Regional and National (per country) 

by sector : 

State of development 

Quantification by sector 

Rates 

Analysis of the impact after infrastructural and regulatory developments. 

3 http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/ICTEYE/TariffPolicies/TariffPolicies.aspx 


20



Initiating the development of observatories 

Developing models using the ICT sector data (A2) 

Developing the regulation tools (recommendations) 

The following tables give an example of the outputs that could be provided and 

hence analyzed through an observatory 

Sample graphics (the case of European countries) 

4.2.3. Task 1.1.3 Initialization of a continental and regional 

infrastructures atlas 

To reach the PIDA objectives of review and analysis of the situation, a GIS atlas of 

the physical ICT infrastructure will be implemented during the PIDA Study. 

It will provide Maps of physical infrastructures at continental and regional levels and 

Sub marine cable stations. 

The following box presents a call for expression of interest launched by ECOWAS to 

contract a specialised company for a ICT Data Base initialisation. This bow shows 

the same initiative developed above is already taken by some RECs. The PIDA ICT 

team will then take into consideration the work already done or planned while 

building up its own atlas. 

(Abuja) 

Ecowas Launches Telecommunications Data Base 


21



SPONSOR WIRE 


23 June 2010 

Lome - Togo — ECOWAS has taken another practical step towards addressing the dearth of up-to- date and 

accurate data which will reflect its current market mapping in the telecommunications-ICT sector through the official 

launching of its regional data base on Tuesday, 22nd June 2010. 

A demonstration of the mode of operation and mapping methods of the data base was done at the launching and 

witnessed, among others, by the Togolese Minister of Posts and Telecommunications, the ECOWAS Commissioner 

for Infrastructure as well as representatives of the International Telecommunications Union (ITU) and the regulatory 

authorities for posts and telecommunications from ECOWAS Member States 

As one of the priority projects of the ECOWAS Commission, SIGTEL will help inform and provide direction for 

decision-makers within the region for their development policies on telecoms-ICT, evaluate the potentials of new 

activities arising from opening up the telecoms-ICT market to competition and determine the possibilities for market 

penetration by competitors. It will also help increase available knowledge of the telecoms-ICT market in West Africa, 

enable regulatory authorities in the region to adapt regulations to changes in the sector as well as serve as a tool for 

Member States to assess their progress towards achieving the objectives set by the ECOWAS Commission and 

NEPAD for the telecoms-ICT sector. 

http://allafrica.com/stories/201006240778.html 

4.3. Task 1.2. Review of Continental and regional policies 

(A1) 

4.3.1. Objectives 

This phase aims at analyzing the following questions: 

What where the objectives of the various developed policies? 

To what extent have the projected objectives been reached? 

What were the obstacles in their implementation? 

To carry out this analysis, the consultants will focus on the 4 key aspects of the ICT 

Sector: 

The continental and regional policies (Recs) on the development of infrastructures 

The regulatory bodies, the legal and regulatory frameworks in force 

The players (landline operators, mobile operators, ISP) 

The status of developing the market segments 

4.3.2. Task 1.2.1 Collection of Regional Policies and regulatory 

frameworks 

In order to carry out the transversal analysis of regional policies, the consultants will 

collect a set of documents on ICT policies and the regulatory environments in the 

various African regions. 

4.3.2.1. Master plans and regional policies 

The documents related to continental and regional policies will be obtained from 

bodies in charge of drafting, defining and implementing them: 

The African Union 

The African Telecommunication Union 

RECs, 

22



The key documents are : 

Strategic regional ICT infrastructure development plans 

The countries’ investment master plans 

4.3.2.2. The Legal and Regulatory Environment 

This information is essentially available at the level of NRA. 

As for data collection, the Consultant will proceed mainly through the RECs. 

4.3.2.3. Other usable sources 

The consultants will equally use information provided by other bodies as the 

programs implemented by the European Union and ITU. 

Harmonization of ICT markets for ECOWAS/WAEMU 4 

Harmonization of policies providing for the ICT market in the WAEMU-ECOWAS 

zone ICT Policy and legislature model. 5 

HIPSSA :Harmonization of policies in the ACP countries 

Support to the development of harmonized policies for the ICT market in the ACP 

countries 6 

Objectives 

HIPPSA 

The global objective of this project is to provide harmonized ICT policies in each of the countries 

involved. 

Specific objectives of the global project: 

Setting up and developing policies and guidelines providing for the ICT market in each of 

the ACP countries; 

Providing support to regional organizations and sub-regional economic blocks for the 

development and promotion of using harmonized policies and regulations in the relevant 

zone’s ICT market; 

Institutional and capacity building in the ICT field thanks to a series of targeted measures 

focused on training, education and sharing of knowledge. 

Results 

The project’s global projected resulted are: 

Build up awareness in developing countries at the highest political level of the necessity to develop a 

4 http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/treg/projects/itu-ec/index-fr.html 

5 http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/treg/projects/itu-ec/Ghana/modules/FinalDocuments/Model_ICT_Law_Policy-fr.pdf 

6 http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/treg/projects/itu-ec/index-fr.html 


23



knowledge-based economy; 

Assist the developing countries to adapt their regulatory frameworks in order to develop, before ICT 

infrastructure and applications; optimize economic and social advantages and meet national 

priorities in accordance with the objectives of the CMDT-06 and the WSIS Action Plan; 

Provide training in ICT policies, regulations and the use of ICT ; develop competences at the local 

level in these fields 

The project’s general objective is to contribute to the development of harmonized policies in the ICT 

sector and the development of an efficient regulatory environment capable of attracting massive 

investments including ICT infrastructures and applications needed by the countries. The HIPSSA 

project’s component "Support to the harmonization of ICT policies in Sub-Saharan Africa", contains at a 

large scale the objectives of the pilot project financed by the European Union and the ITU which was 

implemented with success in Western Africa with the contribution of ECOWAS and the WAEMU. 

The objective is to develop and promote harmonized policies and guidelines for the ICT market as well 

as capacity building for both human capital and institutions thanks to the adoption of a targeted set of 

measures involving training, education and sharing knowledge. 

4.3.3. Task 1.2.2 Analysis of the existing regional policies 

After the collection and inventory of documents coming from RECs, the Consultant 

will analyze the master plans and/or policies in place. 

The Consultant will examine, among other things, the relevance of the options taken 

by the RECs. It will be taken into consideration what has been or has not been done 

in terms of regional policies and will analyze the causes of failure and results in case 

of success. 

This part will be devoted to a posteriori analysis of the relevance of broad strategic 

choices by the regions to encourage regional integration and the development of 

continental and regional infrastructures. 

The Consultant will also attempt to identify the role and powers of the regions for: 

The development of regional guidelines on the sector 

the transposition of these guidelines into decrees and laws by this region’s 

countries. 

Framework 

Directive 

(Art. 95) 

Liberalisation 

Directive 

(Art.86) 

Governm ent 

Telec om law and 

ass ociated by-laws 

The EU Directives and applications and 

country transposition 

Authorisation Directive 

Access & Interconnection 

Directive 

Universal Service 

Directive 

Data P rotection 

Directive 

Spectrum Decision 

N RA 

Applications by-law 

Authors (ENSTB 2010) 

Finally the Consultant will examine how RECs address key strategic policies as: 

The development and usage of alternative infrastructures. 

The coordination of frequencies 


24



Web security 

The development of excellence or training centers 

After this transversal inventory, the Consultant will conclude on positive and negative 

aspects as well as best practices and worst cases 

A specific relevant analysis will be also made by the Consultant to compare ICT 

market situation and explain the differences by the various policies and regulatory 

choices made by the RECS. 

Analysis « crude » of regional policies 

Analyses of the SWOT type can be carried out in order to identify the strengths and 

weaknesses of the regional policies on specific points. 

The RECs files, completed, if required (or if possible), with country files, will 

synthesize the points analyzed and/or inventory the regulation bodies and their 

power on specific points. 

4.3.3.1. Analyzing regional policies related to land management 

In the Consultant opinion, a focus has to be done on regional policies and 

coordination between states and/or the players in terms of land management. This 

issue covers the question on the implementation of sustainable inter-connectable 

infrastructures involving the countries of a same region or neighbouring regions. 


25



BOX: An example of Land Management Policy 

The case of Rwanda 

The scheme below shows how a land management policy may develop an appropriate 

environment for the development of sustainable infrastructures. 

P Nyrishema RDB May 2010 

4.3.3.2. Alternative Infrastructure Usage 

The Consultant will also undertake the analysis of policies in terms of mobilization 

and use of alternative infrastructures which could be allocated to the ICT sector. 

As a matter of fact, Regional Policies have the option to maximize the cross sector 

investments made in other infrastructures. 

These specifically targeted sectors are: 

The transport sector: Roads, railways,.. 

The energy sector: high voltage grids, pipelines (CAB type, Sonatrach) 

Urban sectors: metropolitan networks. 

This analysis will be extended in the task related to regional infrastructure by 

identifying existing infrastructures, which are not used or the infrastructures planned 

in the short and medium terms. 

The experience of the Consultant is that the inefficiency of alternative infrastructure 

usage is mainly due to the legal and regulatory environments. 

4.3.4. Task 1.2.3 Analysis of regional regulation bodies and legal and 

regulatory environments 

4.3.4.1. Task 1.2.3.1 Regulatory bodies and other coordinates 

agencies 

The ICT sector is largely privatized and competitive in Africa. If competition has 

contributed a great deal to the offer of services, it has enabled players to work 

independently without seeking association or partnership amongst them in order to 

mobilize shared infrastructure. 

The legal and regulatory frameworks are the basic foundation for the development of 

services provided by operators and regulation of wholesale and retail tariff policies. 


26



As Regulatory bodies and other coordinate agencies are related to policies and their 

efficiency, the consultants will address the subject using the same approach used in 

the analysis of Regional and Continental policies explained above. 

To do so, the Consultant will list the different regulatory bodies and their major 

prerogatives impacting the development of infrastructures and tariffs. 

This inventory will be made by REC and focus on governance, maturity and 

regulatory capacity. 

The Consultant will focus his analysis on: 

Association of regional regulators 

Regional and national regulators 

Institutions or bodies in charge of spectre management and coordinates (civil 

aviation, maritime affairs, Audiovisual) with two objectives: 

Spectre management and coordination of frequencies at the borders 

Passage in 2020 to numeric TV 

Certification bodies and authorization process 

To do so, the Consultant will work with the Recs and HIPPSA on the regional 

inventory and use the tools such as those developed by the ITU in e-applications. 

4.3.4.2. Task 1.2.3.2 The Legal and Regulatory Environment 

An efficient regulatory environment is fundamental factor for ICT infrastructure 

development. 

The Consultant will investigate the policies related to regulation. The Study will try to 

underline where any change of the regulatory environment could have an impact to 

reduce the ICT service usage price with a specific attention of ICT retail prices. 

The major points that will be analyzed are: 

Licenses and Authorizations delivered to the operators 

Voice and data interconnection among countries 

Tariff policies, their methods of regulation and implementation. 

The state of the market by sector 

Alternatives or additional Infrastructures 

The study will attempt at identifying best practices and worst cases and will issue 

recommendations for alignment and/or adjustment. 

This part of the study will have as objective to evidence: 

The causes behind the continental infrastructural and regional deficit in Africa. 

The necessary adjustments required in terms of policies and regulatory 

frameworks. 

4.3.4.3. Task 1.2.3.3 Analyzing any other related factors that 

impact regulatory environment 

In this part, the consultants will identify and analyze other potential causes which 

may affect the realization of master plans and their good implementation, the 

deficiency of regulatory or other exogenous factors. 

Lack of human resources 


27



Lack of training 

Tax on equipments 

4.4. Task 1.3 Review of Regional Infrastructures (A2) 

4.4.1. The Task’s Environment 

The objective of the PIDA study is to explore the infrastructures supporting regional 

integration. 

Therefore, the Consultant will not study either the Radio (BTS) infrastructures used 

by mobile phone operators nor the access infrastructures, which are part of national 

infrastructures (out of the PIDA Study scope). 

As evidenced by the maps generated using AICD/GIS by AICD Study, the return 

form the field and the synthesis studies such as: «Information Society Statistical 

Profiles 2009 Africa ITU-D », it is clear that ICT development in Africa is based 

primarily on the mobile phone and that the majority of investments carried out during 

the last few years by these same operators are essentially: 

Not sustainable in the medium and long terms and are only devoted to the 

implementing country (no/few interconnection at regional level); moreover a large 

part of the mobile infrastructures (BSC-BTS-MSC and backbone GSM) are 

handled by radio technology with limited bandwidth (few Mbps). 

These infrastructures are unable to ensure potential traffic in the medium and long 

terms because they cannot support internet development and the demands of a 

number of users who need broadband. In certain areas 3G technologies are used 

on account of lack to land technologies (ADSL,..) or dedicated technologies 

(Wimax. 

Author (CJB 2010) 

On this basis, the Consultant concludes that the GSM infrastructure is not part of the 

scope of the Review of Regional Infrastructures. 

4.4.2. Objective of the task 

The main objective of the task is to review regional infrastructure on the basis of the 

Kigali declaration. As a matter of fact, KIGALI declaration seems a good angle of 


28



analysis as it specifies the main regional objectives in ICT Infrastructures 

development agreed at Connect Africa Summit - Investing in Africa's Future in Kigali, 

29 th and 30th October 2007. 

Le rapport final 

Afin de renforcer et d'accélérer la mise en 

oeuvre des objectifs du SMSI, cinq objectifs 

pour Connecter l'Africa, compte tenu des 

enjeux et perspectives de la région, ont été 

présentés aux participants, qui les ont 

avalisés. Ces objectifs avaient été 

auparavant approuvés par des ministres et 

des experts des administrations des pays 

africains (voir l'Annexe): 

Objectif 1: Interconnecter toutes les capitales 

et grandes villes africaines à l'infrastructure 

TIC large bande et renforcer la connectivité 

avec le reste du monde à l'horizon 2012. 

Objectif 2: Connecter les villages africains 

aux services TIC large bande à l'horizon 2015 

et mettre en oeuvre des initiatives qui 

encouragent l'accès partagé telles que des 

télécentres communautaires et des téléphones 

de village. 

Objectif 3: Adopter des mesures 

réglementaires fondamentales qui 

contribuent à promouvoir un accès 

abordable et généralisé à toute une gamme 

de services TIC large bande, y compris les 

pratiques d'octroi de licences/d'autorisation 

qui ne privilégient aucune technologie ni 

aucun service, l'attribution de fréquences 

radioélectriques à de multiples prestataires 

concurrentiels de services hertziens large 

bande, la création de points d'échange 

Internet (IXP) et la concurrence dans la 

fourniture de la connectivité Internet 

internationale. 

Objectif 4: Appuyer le développement de 

compétences TIC en nombre suffisant pour 

répondre aux besoins de l'économie du 

savoir, en particulier par la création d'un 

réseau de centres d'excellence TIC dans 

chaque sous-région du continent africain et 

par la création de centres de renforcement 

des capacités TIC et de formation aux TIC 

dans chaque pays, en vue d'établir un vaste 

réseau de centres réels et virtuels reliés les 

Connect Africa Summit - Investing in Africa's Future 

Kigali, 29th - 30th Octobre 2007 

Connect Africa Summit Goals 

To reinforce the need to accelerate the 

implementation of the WSIS targets, the 

Summit programme was framed around five 

goals, which reflect the challenges and 

opportunities in the Africa region. These Goals 

were endorsed earlier by Ministers and experts 

from African administrations (see Annexes 1 

and 2): 

Goal 1: Interconnect all African capitals and 

major cities with ICT broadband infrastructure 

and strengthen connectivity to the rest of the 

world by 2012. 

Goal 2: Connect African villages to broadband 

ICT services by 2015 and implement shared 

access initiatives such as community telecentres 

and village phones. 

Goal 3: Adopt key regulatory measures that 

promote affordable, widespread access to a full 

range of broadband ICT services, including 

technology and service neutral 

licensing/authorization practices, allocating 

spectrum for multiple, competitive broadband 

wireless service providers, creating national 

Internet Exchange Points (IXPs) and 

implementing competition in the provision of 

international Internet connectivity. 

Goal 4: Support the development of a critical 

mass of ICT skills required by the knowledge 

economy, notably through the establishment of 

a network of ICT Centres of Excellence in each 

sub-region of Africa and ICT capacity-building 

and training centres in each country, with the 

aim of achieving a broad network of inter-linked 

hardand virtual centres, while ensuring 

coordination between academia and industry by 

2015. 

Goal 5: Adopt a national e-strategy, including a 

cyber-security framework, and deploy at least 

one flagship e-government service as well as e- 


29



uns aux autres, tout en assurant la 

coordination entre les milieux universitaires 

et les professionnels du secteur, à l'horizon 

2015. 

Objectif 5: Adopter une cyberstratégie 

nationale, dont un cadre de cybersécurité, et 

mettre en œuvre au moins un service 

modèle d'administration publique en ligne, 

ainsi que des services de cyberenseignement, 

de commerce électronique et 

de cyber-santé utilisant des technologies 

accessibles dans chaque pays d'Africa, à 

l'horizon 2012, en vue de mettre de multiples 

services d'administration publique en ligne et 

d'autres services en ligne à la portée de 

tous, à l'horizon 2015. 

http://www.itu.int/ITU- 

D/connect/africa/2007/summit/pdf/finalreportfr.pdf 

faisant partie du périmètre de l’étude PIDA 

education, ecommerce and e-health services 

using accessible technologies in each country 

in Africa by 2012, with the aim of making 

multiple e-government and other eservices 

widely available by 2015. 

http://www.itu.int/ITU- 

D/connect/africa/2007/summit/pdf/finalreport.pdf 

Included in PIDA Study scope 

Within this framework, and in order to achieve the underlined goals, the Consultant 

will identify the existing infrastructures with high continental and regional integration 

potential. 

The analyses of the existing, being developed or planned infrastructures will focus 

particularly on: 

Submarine cable stations 

Infrastructures connecting these stations to the countries’ capitals 

Infrastructures interconnecting the countries 

Interconnection infrastructures between segments and infrastructures “national” 

4.4.3. Task 1.3.1 Identification and Analysis of existing infrastructures 

During the process of collecting data on physical infrastructures, and its introduction 

into PIDA study’s GIS after verification of the authenticity of the collected data, the 

Consultant will work on the geographical data in order to identify their relevance in 

terms of classification as regional infrastructure. 

The Consultant will particularly analyze: 

How these infrastructures contribute to regional integration otherwise what kind of 

adjustment is needed to ensure this contribution 

In the case of landlocked countries, particular attention will be paid to the 

infrastructures potentially usable in order to access submarine cable stations and 

notably aspects related to the right of passage (Corridor, trans-boundary). 

Their technical specifications such as capacity and quality. 

Interconnection points (POP) and the facilities offered (interconnection, hosting,..) 

4.4.4. Task 1.3.2 Identification of projects under implementation and 

preparation 

In its review of regional infrastructure, the consultants will take into consideration 

infrastructures which would be operational in the short and medium terms. 


30



The Consulted will use these identified infrastructures by: 

Introducing them into the cartography documents (GIS) in order to have a view of 

their contribution to regional as well as continental integration. 

Dating them in order to identify their operation and assess their impact. 

Quantifying them in order to identify their evolution in the medium and long terms. 

Qualifying them in order to ensure that they will be usable for the transport of 

much more important flow of traffic and set up in accordance with the best 

practices principle. 

This data would be treated confidentially as they are part of the business secrets of 

the private operators and therefore cannot be unveiled. 

4.4.5. Task 1.3.3 Detailed analysis of a set of regional infrastructure 

projects 

In this part devoted to the analysis of regional infrastructures and some targeted 

projects, the consultants will analyze in-depth some identified and selected 

infrastructures according to their modelling as best practices or worst cases. 

The analysis of a set of project will be based on a bottom-up approach. 

GIS 

Recs Policy 

Existing infrastructures 

Identification of ICT 

infrastructures projects 

Supply Driven methodology 

Bottom-up approach 

Bottom up study and analyse 

of 

ICT Infrastructures projects 

Needs for Investment 

investment programmes 

coming from bottom-up approach 

Supply Driven methodology 

Bottom-up approach 

PIDA Study 18 

Approved Recs 

projects 

Regional projects 

managed and executed per one Rec 

Selection of 

relevant projects 

Regional Impact analysis 

Analysis of project 

management and operation 

Difficulties during 

the project cycle 

Analysis NEPAD of existing regional projects 

Analyse of existing 

projects 


implement and 

managed by multi-countries 

Selection of 







PIDA Study 17 



implement and 

managed by one country 

Selection of 







In this task, the Consultant will concentrate his analysis on the physical situation of 

the mentioned infrastructures and if possible, the state of progress for their operation 

The consultants will focus essentially on: 

Connecting countries to the rest of the world 

Inter-connecting neighbouring countries. 

The projects (Minimum 5), will be selected as: 

The STAP action plan 

The World Bank projects 

The projects by operators or equippers 

ICT Infrastructure projects in Africa 

As an example : infrastructure list of ICT projects will include (not 

exhaustive): 

- EASSY 

31



- RASCOM 

- SEACOM 

- The East African Marine System (TEAMS) 

- Central African Backbone (CAB) 

- East African Broadband Network (EABN) 

- Maritime Communications for Safety on Lake Victoria (MCSLV) 

- Sub-Saharan Africa Basic Network-Terrestrial Link SATA 

- Optical Network of the ECOWAS electricity Consortium 

- Other projects like as Maghreb Fiber Interconnect and Initiative Program to 

broaden & enhance Africa's participation in Global ICT will be also 

considered in the data gathering phase 

4.5. Task 1.4 Establishment of the outlook for the future 

and identification of challenges (B) 

4.5.1. Objectives 

The objective of this phase is to establish the outlook for the future for the 

development of regional and continental ICT services infrastructures by 2020 and 

assess the challenges that the regions and the continent will have to face in the 

sector. Such an outlook should serve as a basis for the formulation of realistic longterm 

objectives, to be targeted by policies and programs at the continental level in 

order to anchor infrastructure development into regional integration and trade 

cooperation in Africa. 

The consultant will consider carefully the extent to which the models already 

developed by the AICD team can be utilized to establish the outlook for the future. 

They might be valuable for developing different outlook scenarios guided by political 

priorities. 

4.5.2. Task 1.4.1. Establishment of an outlook for the future (B.1) 

4.5.2.1. An outlook for the Future and Kigali Agreement 

In the Kigali agreements and other additional programs, the vision of ICT 

development in Africa is clearly expressed. The analysis of stated objectives is the 

evidence that some of them are short-term objectives (2012) and medium term 

objectives (2015) while 3 objectives are directly related to the PIDA Study. 

4.5.2.2. Task 1.4.1.1 Defining Assumptions and Forecast 

methodology 

Defining assumptions VS Accomplished Facts 

Defining the good assumptions is a challenge as the ICT market is dynamic. 

The Consultant will work with data: that will help anticipate the needs in the short 

and medium terms (by 2015). 

These data are the ones that are: 

The most up to date 

Issued by market participants 

Clarified using benchmarking 


32



The analysis of the state and usage of ICT in the world highlights a large number of 

points, which are not taken as assumptions but as “faits accomplis”. 

ICT sector development is not driven by the economic indicators but by market and 

contents development. 

Facts 

Broadband 

Low or medium flow internet (< 4 Mbps) has no future in the short term (3 years or 

less) and is largely outdated for a large number of applications. 

The data traffic (for some countries has already) will rapidly become more important 

than voice traffic at regional and continental level. 

High broadband development 

Submarine cables in Africa landed or reaching so on Africa have a global capacity of 

many terabytes compared to 200 Gbps available today Africa mainly via satellite and 

to 1,996 Gbps consumed by South America. Other submarine cables will be 

deployed in the short term (< 2015) ending the isolation of some coastal countries 

(not necessarily the players) and not the landlocked countries. 

The players’ habits and traditions 

If the operators are ready to share hard infrastructures (optical cable, POP), they 

want to be in great part “masters” of the usage thanks to active equipments (DWDM, 

SDH, IP switch) in order to ensure independence and flexibility and react very rapidly 

( < 1 month) to a sector’s evolution . 

Within this framework, thanks to their experience and connections with the sectors’ 

players, the Consultant will take into consideration this fundamental parameter in the 

future uses of these infrastructures made by operators. 

Access networks to be set up 

ADSL and cable modem, the dominant technologies to provide broadband services 

in Europe and North America, are not a future technology for the African continent 

except for some « small islands » (countries with high density of landline network or 

big cities) 

The 3G technology is a reparation technology used today in a large number of 

African countries but remains limited in terms of evolution and capacity. It will be 

taken into consideration as part of assumptions until 2015/18 for evolution of traffic 

by this market segment. 

Assumptions 

If a number of parameters can be taken as certitudes in the medium term, the 

perspectives of developing broadband services in Africa remain related to a number 

of assumptions. 

Developments of the retail market 

The voice market: If the growth of GSM users in Africa has been exponential (and 

unexpected during the first years of its commercialization), the medium term growth 

line will become asymptomatic as everywhere in the world by market saturation. 

The Broadband Market: The Broadband market in Africa will be highly in demand. It 

is highly probable therefore that the growth of the broadband market will be the one 

to take most of the infrastructure in terms of usage (the traffic of data will be higher 

than that of the voice traffic). 


33



The assumptions must take into consideration the potential growth of a number of 

subscribers per country and the “out of country” traffic (regional or continental) 

generated by these consumers. 

Therefore, it is essential to include 3 variables in the forecasts all of which are 

variables in time 

Growth rate of the number of consumers per country (high and low profiles) 

Growth rate of the traffic generated by each user (high and low profiles) 

Growth rate of the traffic “regional” generated by these same consumers 

It is important to note that these variables taken as assumptions are closely related 

for each country to the land management policies as well as the legal and regulatory 

policies (regulation of prices) 

Regional and continental Traffic 

The growing needs in terms of continental and regional infrastructures depend 

entirely on all other national demand growth. 

In order to assess needs, the Consultant will use a number of routing ratios and 

matrices issued from benchmarking or the sector’s players. 

Like national traffic, regional traffic will be assessed using high and low brackets. By 

caution measures, the calibration of infrastructures will carried out according to high 

traffic in order to ensure the sustainability of infrastructures after 2020. 

Within this framework; the Consultant will rely on the benchmark analysis as well as 

the quantified observations on Eats Africa ( Eassy, E-NEPAD,..). 

In these same countries, as in AMU countries (Morocco, Tunisia) the offer of access 

to a final residential user is not carried out via DSL any longer but rather via optical 

fibre. 

Forecasting Model 

In order to calibrate the hard infrastructures, the generated and expected traffic at the 

various locations of the regional infrastructures, modelling is required. 

Therefore, a model will be used in accordance with the assumptions and scenarios 

for the calibration of the needed infrastructures taking into consideration the need to 

ensure their long term viability for the depreciable parts over more than 5 or 10 years. 

Within this framework, the Consultant will use a specific model, which will be 

developed or adapted (from the ones developed by AICD or e-NEPAD) in order to 

satisfy the expectations in terms of results. This model has been described earlier. 

4.5.2.3. Task 1.4.1.2 Analysis and projections 

The ICT planning exercise contains a vision of the market expectations by 2012, 

2015 and 2020. The Consultant, based on his experience in European countries and 

samples from Africa (RSA, e-NEPAD), will take into consideration the short term 

(active equipment), and the long term (sustainable infrastructure), which will be 

assessed to see their efficiency after 2020 (calibration based on the probable 

anticipation principle). 

These analyses and assumptions will help identify, plan and implement a long term 

structuring investment program. 


34



Benchmarking analyses will complete the assumptions in order to provide evidence 

for the great gaps, which if remedied help end the entrapment of central African 

countries as well as the whole continent. The risk of under-calibration (bottlenecks) 

for existing programs or underway will be closely analyzed. 

Based on these assumptions and parameters, the Consultant will forecast the 

current and potential needs as well as the expectations related to the ICT sector. For 

these purposes, there is an obligation to work at the national (country), as the traffic 

generated on regional, continental levels in Africa is a percentage of the national 

traffics. 

National traffic need for bandwidth per country (Gbps) will be carried out using high 

and low assumptions of the number of consumers. This is related to the assumptions 

of needs by consumer (bandwidth per consumer). 

Generated by national flows, the regional flows will be estimated in order to define 

expectations per region. This is a very sensitive point for landlocked countries as the 

flow is added to that of the crossed countries. Regional flow will be highly sensitive to 

the infrastructure parameters related to the countries such as the presence of 

interconnection nodes or data centres. 

Trans-national flow to access submarine cables will be modelled. They are highly 

sensitive to the two large flows mentioned earlier as they are themselves but an 

outcome. Here, the expected volumes are sensitive to the surrounding infrastructures 

which are INX (IXP), the presence of data centres or the services developed using 

internet and used by consumers (we can mention some of these services such as 

Skype, Youtube, Facebook… which today are big consumers of bandwidth and 

which are for the moment are international flows in Africa) 

The results of using this model are : 

National flow (as an indication and an estimate) per country 

Regional flow per RECs 

Continental flow or trans-continental flow (out of Africa) to submarine cable 

stations. 

The high regional flows, trans-African and trans-continental flows will also be 

highlighted 

Risk assessment of the sector: study related to the outlook for the future 

The Consultant, and Africa are facing a real challenge which is to forecasts the 

‘unforecastable’: the development and use of the internet in the world and activities, 

which are exceedingly greedy in terms of traffic consumption. 

To minimize the risks, it is necessary to separate investments whose components 

are depreciable in the short term (active elements) from structuring investments 

(optical fibre), which have a life beyond 2020. If there is a high risk incurred by the 

“active elements”, it would be possible to minimize considerably the structuring 

investments, big consumers of capitals depreciable in the long term. 

4.5.2.4. Task 1.4.1.3 Validation workshop 

A workshop will be organized by the Client and the Consultant, and will bring 

together stakeholders (especially the RECs and AU specialized institutions/sector 

organizations) and resource persons (‘external experts’). The purpose of the 

workshop will be to discuss the methodological note due 11 weeks after the start of 


35



the study, and validate the assumptions and parameters to guide the final 

projections. 

Participants would include, inter alia, the RECs, the panel of experts, PIDA sponsors, 

and the Consultant. Its main purpose will be to form a common, long-term social and 

economic vision, and a consensus on the assumptions, parameters and methodology 

on the basis of which the consultants will finalize his projections for regional and 

continental infrastructure development up to 2020. 

4.5.2.5. Task 1.4.1.4 Formulation of the Outlook for 2012, 2015 

and 2020 

Taking into account the outcome of the validation workshop and the previous work, 

the Consultant will draft a document on the perspectives of ICT in Africa. 

To complete this document, synthesis files (Regional and national as well as maps) 

will be developed. They will complete those already developed during earlier tasks 

and would allow the completion of and centralization of information on the sector. 

These documents and e-files are part of Report I. 

4.5.3. Task 1.4.2 Analysis of choices and challenges (B.2) 

This part will complete the results of task B1 and analyze the options or choices to be 

made in order to solve the constraints or risks identified in B1. 

The principal factor analyzed will be: 

The general macro economic framework provided by the horizontal team. 

How the choices made and the identified projects can be integrated into the 

regions’ policies and development/master plans and how they can improve the 

objectives. 

The conflicts and incompatibilities to be solved 

The role of the private sector in this plan (operators…) 

4.5.3.1. Task 1.4.2.1 Analysis and assessment of the outlook for the 

future 

After the validation of perspectives given by the outlook produced at the previous 

stage, the Consultant will analyze mainly the constraints for the implementation of the 

perspectives and the resulting scenarios. 

In this task, the Consultant will review the different scenarios and analyze: 

Their answers to expectations in terms of continental and regional integration 

How they integrate into the regional policies and/or what they generate as 

adjustments 

Their cost according to the selected intra-project scenario 

The perspectives of their growth with particular attention to long term viability (> 

10 years) of the most expensive items. 

The legal and regulatory environments to be developed in order to make them 

economically viable. 

The Consultant will also analyze 


36



The potential impact of the regional policies on scenario developed and will try to 

bring the required adjustments 

Items to be set up according to the technical priority order (access to submarine 

cables before having a large number of BB consumers for example). 

The legal and regulatory gaps and identify the necessary structural adjustments 

for the realization of objectives. 

The Study will give particular attention to the landlocked countries and how they can 

have access to submarine cables stations for reasonable prices. 

4.5.3.2. Task 1.4.2.2 Objective setting 

The ToR stipulate that the consultant shall propose a number of realistic of objectives 

that the Decision makers could set for their long term regional infrastructure 

development policies in the ICT sector.. 

The consultants will propose the priorities which will help move as close as possible 

to the Kigali Agreements and to solve the major identified problems. 

At this stage, possible specific objectives of the PIDA ICT investment program could 

be listed as follows: 

Establishing a harmonized policy, legal and regulatory frameworks at the regional 

and continental levels to develop an attractive and positive market for investment 

and to foster the sustainable development of ICT infrastructure in African regional 

markets; 

Accelerating the development of integrated infrastructures that will help bridge the 

digital divide, i.e. foster access to reliable and quality ICT services that will be 

affordable for the greatest number of the population in Africa; 

Promoting e-applications and services aimed at improving government services 

(e-government), education (e-education), trade and business (e-commerce), and 

other social services, and the performance of the other productive sectors of the 

economy; 

Increasing global competitiveness of Africa by reducing the costs of services and 

enabling the integration of Africa into the global economy; 

Capacity building (in ICT skills) and innovation systems including centers of 

excellence; 

Reducing or eliminating transit of intra and interregional traffic out of the continent. 

The final formulation of the specific program objectives will be agreed upon with the 

stakeholders. 

4.5.4. Task 1.4.3 Preparation of an outline programme (B3) 

4.5.4.1. Background 

According to the TORs, on the basis of (i) the review of regional and continental 

infrastructure conducted under the task A2; (ii) the formulation of the outlook for the 

future conducted under task B1, the Consultant shall present an outline development 

programme for ICT infrastructure and associated services in which the following shall 

be highlighted: 

Investment projects by status (under execution, in current pipeline, new ideas) 


37



Institutional and legal framework/policies and other soft interventions that are 

required 

Relevant implementation stakeholders 

First cost quantifications and estimated deadlines 

Specific choices and decision making issues, in particular regarding projects for 

which bankability is uncertain. 

4.5.4.2. Task 1.4.3.1 Short term Projects (< 2012) 

The consultants will identify a number of priorities which will help attain the Kigali 

objectives namely part of those expected to be or to have been realized by 2012 

including: 

Small projects like those presented by The World Bank ( CF meeting in 

Washington :10 Lessons AICD : 30 small projects/) 

Developing IXP in all the countries 

Sustainable or non-sustainable links ensuring regional integration and mainly 

reducing the cost for consumers (interconnecting neighbouring countries) 

Soft projects reducing the use cost by consolidating certain points and regulation 

principles (Interconnection, Wholesale et rented lines Websecurity,…). 

4.5.4.3. Task 1.4.3.2 Projects beyond 2012 

Within the market dynamics and based on lessons learned and benchmarking 

analyses, hard infrastructure projects should focus on the densification of ‘cobwebs’ 

developed during the preceding periods which are marked by incertitude as far as 

ICT perspectives by 2015 are concerned. 

Projects beyond 2012 should be rather the task of each country by increasing optical 

connectivity between the cities (2015-201x) and eventually for the most dynamic and 

performing between the cities of average importance. 

4.6. Task 1.5 Phase I Report 

4.6.1. Task 1.5.1: Drafting Phase I ICT sector report 

The Consultant will integrate the various reports produced by the ICT team members 

on their respective tasks relating to the review and analysis of policies, institutions, 

legal frameworks, existing and planned projects, on the outlook for the future, on the 

choices and challenges, and on the preliminary outline program. 

4.6.2. Task 1.5.2: Integration of the four sector reports 

The ICT Phase I Report will be integrated with the three other sector reports to 

constitute the Phase I Report. 

4.7. Phase II Formulation of a draft strategic framework, 

programme and implementation strategy 

The purpose of Phase II is to consult with stakeholders on the findings of Phase I, in 

order to develop a draft strategic framework, infrastructure development program, 

and implementation strategy and processes. 

There are broadly two components to Phase II: 


38



The preparation and holding of a strategic workshop to consult with RECs, and 

other stakeholders on the Phase I findings; 

The preparation of a draft final report containing the three outputs required from 

the study (strategic framework, infrastructure development program, 

implementation strategy and processes) 

Full engagement with the RECs will be essential, as the RECs, working closely with 

national governments, will be the main implementers of the final output of PIDA. 

The aim of this phase is to help reach, through a sustained participatory and 

consultative process, and on the basis of previous studies, a consensus on the 

essential elements of a regional and continental ICT strategic framework (including 

sector policies), infrastructure development program, and implementation strategy 

and processes. 

4.7.1. Background 

As announced in the TOR, the aim of this phase is to help reach, through a sustained 

participatory and consultative process,, a consensus on the essential elements of a 

regional and continental ICT strategic framework (including sector policies), 

infrastructure development programme, and implementation strategy and processes. 

The key issues that should be addressed include: 

Development of integrated infrastructures and access networks as the 

cornerstone of e-access, with efficient cross-border interconnectivity to provide 

increased access to ICT services for the greatest number of the African 

population, including the improvement of connectivity of the African continent with 

other continents; 

Networks intercompatibility, and fostering convergence, interoperability, 

interconnections, continental roaming and services; 

Establishing a level playing field for the business/regional ICT market; 

Open and non-discriminatory access; 

Fostering integrated e-strategies at national, regional and international level; 

Management of scarce resources, such as frequencies, numbers, rights of way; 

Security and reliability; 

Institutional framework and issues of infrastructure ownership and operations and 

maintenance; 

The financing mechanisms and options available; 

4.7.1.1. Specific target 

During this phase, the strategic framework, programme and implementation strategy 

shall focused also on some specific areas as: 

Spectrum management and monitoring 

To secure the usage of the spectrum (scarce resource), national policy shall be in 

conformity with a certain number of ITU rule as: 

National Frequency Plan (NFP) 

Spectrum management and monitoring tolls in accordance with the ITU standards 


39



Access to sub-marine cable and “transboundary networks” 

The fair access to sub marine cable and the feasibility of “transboundary network” 

offering interconnection for land-locked countries is essential to avoid Intra African 

Digital devide. 

Open and non-discriminatory access and other appropriate environment will be 

analyse and reinforce if required. 

Web security Policy 

Implement continental policy in term of Websecurity and Cybercriminality shall be 

studied carefully. 

A specific programme at continental and regional levels shall be developed. 

4.8. Task 2.1 Strategic workshops 

To achieve these objectives of this phase, the consultant will carry out a series of 

sector workshops involving all key stakeholders. The aim of the workshops will be to 

develop proposals based on the outlines prepared during the previous phase. 

The consultant’s work on this phase will include: 

Preparing workshops; 

Formulating a preliminary draft implementation strategy and processes. 

4.8.1. Task 2.1.1 Preparation and holding of sector workshops 

A series of workshops will be organized with key stakeholders (especially the RECs 

and specialized AU institutions/sector organizations) to consult on the orientation of 

continental/regional policies, and on the key ingredients required to develop the 

strategic framework, infrastructure development programme, and implementation 

strategy and processes. 

The work will be conducted based on the Consultant’s analyses performed during 

Phase I. 

The workshops will represent an important stage in the process of ownership by 

regional entities and will look for consensus on major trends and actions. 

4.8.2. Task 2.1.2 Preparation of briefs for strategic the workshops 

In close collaboration with the Client, the Consultant will prepare briefs to contribute 

to the workshop discussions. Such briefs, prepared on the basis of the Phase I 

report, will be specific to each region. They will include summaries of: 

The conclusions of reviews of regional policies and the implementation of 

infrastructure development programmes: 

Policies and infrastructure situation state of the art (including programmes and 

projects); 

The main drivers and inhibitors identified; 

Key messages for stakeholders; 


40



The conclusions of projections of needs in ICT infrastructure and associated 

services, and an analysis of coherence with sector policies and economic 

guidelines; 

A set of recommendations aimed at strengthening regional and continental 

policies on ICT infrastructure and associated services’ development and 

management. 

4.8.3. Task 2.1.3 Formulation of o preliminary draft Strategic 

framework 

At the end of the workshops, the consultant will prepare a report highlighting: 

The guidelines formulated by participants on the strategic framework including 


The ICT infrastructure development programme, and implementation strategy and 

processes; 

The participants’ agreed levels at which the measures and initiatives should be 

undertaken: continental or regional; 

The identification of interfaces between the regional and continental levels on 

which to undertake these measures, and initiatives issues on which participants 

could not reach a consensus; 

The list of additional analyses brought forward and necessary for the consolidation 

of results; 

4.8.4. Task 2.1.4 Formulation of a preliminary draft Infrastructure 

development programme 

As shown before, the projects and programs will involve the extension or 

improvement of existing infrastructure, the construction of new infrastructure, and the 

strengthening of the enabling environment. The projects and programs will be 

prioritized in relation to the objectives that they are expected to help achieve. There 

will also be preliminary assessments to determine the relative importance of the 

expected project impacts and highlight possible conflicting objectives. 

The investment programme will consist of a pipeline of regional projects and 

programs, composed of a balanced combination of hard and soft 

interventions/studies over three time horizon: 

Short term 2010-2012 

Medium term 2012-2015 

Long term 2015......... 

The projects that will be included in the preliminary draft infrastructure development 

programme will be based on the following methodology: 

Methodology for the evaluation of hard infrastructure project 

The evaluation of such a regional infrastructure project is based on an approach of 7 

phases and will require three models. 


41



Phase 1 – Defining the topology of the infrastructure 

Top-down approach 

Phase 2 – assessing demand and demand in the short, medium and long 

terms 

Number of consumers per service, traffic by consumer, etc 

Phase 3 – Calibration of infrastructure 

The calibration of infrastructures will be calculated according to the routing 

factor, demand and engineering rules. 

Phase 4 –Evaluation of the cost of infrastructure 

The evaluation of the budget will be based on the calibration of infrastructure 

and the cost of elements. 

Phase 5 – Allocation of costs 

The cost of infrastructure is allocated to the various departments and/or players 

using the infrastructure (based on capacity). 

Phase 6 – Cost of services 

The mode calculates the unit cost for each service (voice, data/minutes, 

Mbps…) 

Phase 7 – Defining the profitability of the infrastructure 

OPEX and common costs are based on best practices and benchmarks. 

Capex and depreciation by sub-groups are identified. 

The profitability potentials are assessed using a scenario based on evaluation 

of traffic and teh cost of using services ( cts €/minute, cts€/Mbps,.. 

Software Infrastructures 

Some “soft” infrastructures will be integrated in the preliminary draft Infrastructure 

development programme. 

4.8.4.1. Prioritization of projects 

Prioritization of projects is essential, as it will help to focus efforts on a realistic core 

of projects, and to build consensus among all stakeholders (including financing 

partners) around that core. Evaluation and prioritization criteria will be proposed with 


42



the preliminary development programme and progressively refined by the consultant 

based on thorough discussions with program sponsors, RECs and other 

stakeholders. 

The points on which the consultants will mainly focus are the lacking infrastructures 

at the origin of regional or continental bottlenecks. 

For these purposes, the consultants will work mainly on: 

4.8.4.2. Soft Infrastructures (2012-2015) 

Adjust policy and regulatory environment shall be implemented as soon as possible 

to : 

Reduce the end user price of ICT service (Priority Nb 1) 

Provide a strong legal and regulatory basis for sustainable infrastructure 

deployment 

4.8.4.3. Hard Infrastructures (2012-2015) 

Taking into consideration the state of regional infrastructures inventoried in Phase I; 

the consultants will develop roadmaps highlighting: 

Laying submarine cables 

A background part will highlight the laying of various submarine cables taking into 

consideration the dates of operation and capacity. 

A focus will be put on developing infrastructures showing how they will progressively 

cover the whole continent.. 

Optical links of continental or regional aspect adding the players’ expectations as 

well as their practices (identified by benchmark or direct contact) as the location of 

FO vs λ or bandwidth. 

The infrastructures traffic exchange points (telehouse, POP, IXP,..). 

Within the framework of the Study, it is important to note that developing 

perspectives in terms of infrastructure, the part « active equipments » will be often 

occulted as it corresponds to investments generally carried out by the operators or 

the ISP. The problem to be solved is essentially a rationalization of investments in 

sustainable infrastructures (FO and POP type). It has to do with heavy investments 

operators are not always ready to do in an isolated manner. One of the project’s big 

challenges is somehow similar to what happened in Europe since 1998 and which 

accelerated in 2002 after the internet bubble. It has to do with learning the methods 

of assisting players in working together through mutualized investments (sleep with 

the enemy). 


43



June 2010 INX status in Africa 

4.8.5. Task 2.1.5 Formulation of a preliminary implementation 

strategy and processes 

The Consultant will prepare a preliminary draft of “implementation strategy and 

processes”, based on the analysis of the potential barriers to implementation. 

Successful implementation of the infrastructure development program will depend on 

building a consensus among all stakeholders around a realistic platform of measures 

and projects. The implementation strategy and processes will involve the 

development of priority measures, resources and tools to support the successful 

implementation of PIDA, including: 

Priority actions to be undertaken in the period 2010-2012 in terms of both physical 

investments and associated measures required to secure successful implementation 

(e.g. policy, institutional, regulatory, financial, legal). This set of actions shall form the 

Priority Action Plan, which will be designed in a form to be a roll-over action plan. 

Respective roles of regional and continental entities and institutions in the 

implementation of the Priority Action Plan, and more generally in the preparation and 

implementation of further investment programs as well as in the elaboration and 

application of regional and continental policies. 

Technical and political processes need to go hand in hand in arriving at agreement 

on a set of prioritized ICT infrastructure projects, based on sound technical and 

consensus-based proposals. Since the process of identifying, assessing and 

agreeing on a set of priority projects requires substantial negotiation and buy-in at a 

political level, the consultant will carefully consider options for the level of detail that 

is feasible. 

One option may be to establish a set of agreed core principles at a continental level, 

and promote policy development at a regional level. 

The study will review all institutional arrangements that affect the development and 

delivery of infrastructure services at the regional and continental levels, and will make 

recommendations on how they could be modified to improve infrastructure services. 

The recommendations will draw on the causal analysis undertaken in Phase I. 

How the regional and continental policies, entities, institutions and private actors 

could contribute to resolving the issue of financing proposed investments and their 

sustainability, covering both construction and operation and maintenance of the 



44



Mobilizing regional and external financing and private sector participation. The study 

will address the mobilization of funding within the region, and from development 

partners and the private sector. 

The existing situation will be evaluated, and projections made of the likely financial 

resource envelopes for regional infrastructure projects, based on an analysis of past 

trends and other relevant factors. 

We will produce scenarios of future financial resources within which development 

projects and programs can be prioritized. 

These projections will be based on realistic assumptions, and, as far as possible, 

innovative ways of finding solutions to these recurrent issues. The consultants will 

propose measures likely to help mobilize private sector participation in infrastructure, 

and strengthen cooperation with international development partners. 

Civil society participation will be encourage in the preparation and implementation of 

proposed measures in terms of policies as well as physical investments. In this 

context, we will propose communication and dissemination measures that regional 

and continental entities and institutions may undertake in order to enhance civil 

society participation. 

Defining an implementation and monitoring process: This involves proposing to 

stakeholders, the mechanisms and tools to: 

Review and update over time the strategic framework and infrastructure 

development program; 

Actively manage the roll-over Priority Action Plan. 

With respect to the action plan, this will mainly consist of knowing how to initiate and 

complete an action, as well as how to monitor the progress of the action. This 

process will include: 

Capacity building: 

The formulation of recommendations for the institutional capacity building of 

continental and regional entities responsible for monitoring, coordinating and 

managing the implementation of the agreed measures and actions (while 

implementation of the recommendations will be the direct responsibility of the entities 

concerned, and will be carried out outside this study). 

Monitoring mechanism. 

Starting from the work already done to design the NEPAD Project Management 

System (NPMS), and the upgrading of this system under MLTSF, we will assess the 

adequacy of the present data base as an effective monitoring mechanism, and 

formulate observations, comments and recommendations on its upgrading to the 

extent that this is assessed to be necessary. The final design and implementation of 

any improved monitoring mechanism will be carried out separately from this study. 


4.8.6. Task 2.1.6 Phase II Report 

4.8.6.1. Task 2.3.1. Drafting Phase II ICT sector report 

The Consultant will integrate the various reports produced by the team members on 

their respective tasks relating to the preliminary strategic framework, the preliminary 

investment program, and the preliminary implementation strategy and processes. 


45



4.8.6.2. Task 2.3.2 Integration of the four sector reports 

The ICT Phase II Report will be integrated with the three other sector reports to 

constitute the Phase II Report. 

5. WORKPLAN AND TIMELINE 

As stated in the general part of the report, the proposed time line would be as 

follows: 








The scheduling of each task is presented hereafter in the form of GANNT Charts for 

Phase I and Phase II. 


46




47




6.1. Expertise of the team 

A team of four experts has been mobilized for the study, with a total input of 21,5 

man months. The team has the full range of expertise required: 

ICT Team leader 

ICT Strategy Expert 

ICT Programme Expert 

ICT Projection Expert 

In addition to the resources of the Team, the ICT sector will call the intervention of 

two cross sectoral team members: 

GIS Expert 

Legal Expert 

6.2. Tasks assignments 



one and four weeks, and more than four weeks. The total number of man months for 



48




49



ANNEXES 

Annexe 1 : List of documents consulted 

Annexe 2 : List of people met 

Annexe 3 : Team and expertise 

Annexe 4 : Specific Sector Annexes (Energy). 

Led Consortium : SOFRECO –MWH – NATHAN – SOFRECOM – SYSTRA – ASCON - CABIRA



ANNEXE 1 

List of documents consulted 




LIST OF CONSULTED DOCUMENTS FOR THE GENERAL SECTION – PIDA Study 

1 AU/NEPAD African Action Plan 2010 – 2015 – Advancing Regional and Continental Integration in Africa – 

NEPAD Planning anc Coordinating Agency, Midrand South Africa- 2010 (Main and Final Technical Report) 

2 The NEPAD infrastructure Medium to Term Strategic Framework (MLTSF) Study- Discussion Papers and 

Reports 

3 MLTSF Study Independent Assessors Report – February 2009 

4 African Economic Outlook (AEO) 2010 

5 NEPAD Short Term Action Plan (STAP) Main Report– May 2002 – Draft Final Ver.2 

6 NEPAD Short Term Action Plan – Review of Implementation Progress Report 2003 

7 NEPAD Short Term Action Plan (STAP)- Second Review of Implementation Progress and Way Forward – 

Continental Synthesis Report 2004 

8 NEPAD Short Term Action Plan (STAP)- Draft RECs -Project Implementation Status Reports 2010 (Soft 

Copy in NEPAD STAP Documents CD) 

9 Assessing Regional Integration in Africa IV – Enhancing Intra-African Trade, - ECA, AU, ADB Report- May 

2010 - (Nara ana Soft Copy ,n CD) 

10 African Development Bank (ADB) : Review of Regional Operations Draft – May 2010 

11 Final Report: Ecowas Railways Inter connection Study 

12 L'Union Africaine – Le Nouveau Partenariat Pour le Developpement De L'Afrique – Programme of Actions 

13 ADB- Africa Infrastructure Maps (Roads, Railway, Electricity, Optical Fibre) 

14 ADB: Bank Group's Information & Communication Technologies (ICT) Operations Strategy – Revised 

Version –ADF/BD/WP/2008/74/Rev.1 03 October 2008 – Soft Copy 

15 Policy for Integrated Water Resources 

16 Economic Cooperation and Regional Integration Policy 

17 Proposal for Clean Energy Investment Frarr ework for Africa 

18 AfDB Group Regional Integration Strategy 2009-2012 

19 Trans African Highway Report – Missing Links 

20 Africa's Infrastructure, A time for Transformaion, 2010; The World Bank 

21 WB Regional Integration Investment Portfolio (IDA and Global Environment Fund) 

22 IDA 15 Mid Term Review of the IDA Regional Programme (CFPIR) October 2009 

23 WB Regional Integration Investment Pipeline (FY10-FY14) 

24 AICD Papers New as of 18 May 2010 not in 1. File Folders 

24a 

•BP2- Access & Affordability 


24b 

24c 

24d 

24e 

24f 

24g 

24h 

24i 

24j 

24k 

24l 

24m 

24n 

24o 

24p 

24q 



•ICT Sector Review 

•Air Transport Review 

•Irrigation Sector Review 

•Infrastructure Financing 

•Power Sector Review 

•Water Sector Review 

•Railway Sector Review 

•Sanitation Sector Review 

•Urban Transport Review 

•Ports Review 

•Roads Sector Review 

•Power Spending Needs 

•Transport Spending Needs 

•Irrigation Spending Needs 

•ICT Investment Needs 

•Unit Costs of Infrastructure 

26 Data Manuals- Latest Version of Data manuals, 15 April 2010 

27 GIS Data for Urban maps showing GDP spikes: - A iailable from "G Econ Nordhaus Yale" site 

28 AICD Working Papers 

28a •Infrastructure and Growth in Africa – Cesar «alderon –Janauary 2008 

28b •Paying the Price of Unreliable Power . Supplies: In-House Generation of Electricity by Firms: Vivien Foster 

& Jergenijs Stinbuks, Janauary 2008 

28c •Electricity Reforms in Mali: A Macro – Micro Analysis of the Effects on Poverty and Distribution; Dorothee 

Bacaufuso, Antonio Estache and Luc Savard, April 2008 

28d •Electricity Reforms in Senegal: A Mac-o – Micro Analysis of the Effects on Poverty and Distribution; 

Dorothee Bacaufw o, Antonio Estache and Luc Savard, April 2008 




28e oBuilding Sector Concerns into Macto economic and Financial Programming; Lessons from Senegal and 

Uganda; Antonio Estache & Rafael Munoz, April 2008 

28f •Cost Recovery, Equity and Efficiency in Water Tariffs: Evidence from African Utilities; - Sudeshua 

Banerjee, Vivien Forster, Yvonne Ying, Heather Skilling and Quetin Wodon – May 2008 

28i •Local Sources of Financing Infrastructure in Africa: A Cross Country Analysis; Jacqueline Irving & Astrid 

Mauroth, Detember 2008 

28j •Assessing the Impact of Infrastructure Civality on Firm Productivity in Africa: Cross Country Comparisons 

Based on Investn'ent Climate Surveys – 1999-2009- Alvaro Escribano, J.Luis Gausch and Jorge Pena 

February 2009; 

28k •Assessing the Impact of Infrastructure Quality on Firm Productivity in Africa: Appendix 1-4: Figures & 

Tables Referenced in the Text; Alvaro Escribano, J.Luis Gausch and Jorge Pena, February 2009; 

28l oPoverty, Living Conditions and Infrastructure Access: A comparison of slums in Dakar, Johannesburg and 

Nairobi; Surnila Gulyani, Debabrata Talukdar and Darby Jack, February 2009 

28m oProvision of Water to the Poor in Africa . Experience with Water Standpost and Informai Sector: Sarah 

Keener, Manuel Luengo, and Sudeshna Banerjee, April 2009 

28n OTransport Prices and Costs in Africa: A review of the main International Corridors; 

28o •Suppee Teravaninthorn & Gael Ruballancl, July 2008 

28p •The Impact of Infrastructure Spending in Sub Saharan Africa: A CGE ModelingApproach; Jean Francois 

Perrault, Luc Savard and Antonio Estache – February 2008 

28q •Water Reforms in Senegal: A Regional and Interpersonal Distribution Impact Analysis 

28r •Crop productivity and road connectivity in Sub Saharan Africa: A spatial Analysis- Paul Dorosh, Hyoung 

Gun Wang, Liang You and Emily Schmidth; February 2009 

28s •Making Sense of Africa's Infrastructure Enclowment: A Renchmarking Approach: Tito Xepes, Justin Pierce 

and Vivien Foster; Jrnuary 2008 

29 SSATP Working Paper No,89- A Framework for a pro-growth, Pro-poor Transport Strategy, Nahusenay 

Mitiku 

30 SSATP Working Paper No. 86 – Institutional Arrangements for Transport Corridor Management in Sub- 

Saharan Africa; Yao Adzigbey, Charles Kunaka, Tesfamichel Nahusenay Mitiku 

31 SSATP- Second Development Plan 2008 – 2011 – Fostering Sound Policies and Strategies for the Provision 

of Reliable, Safe, Efficient and Affordable Transport, October 2007 

32 IDA 15 Mid-Term Review of the IDA Regional Program – International Development Association – IDA 

Resource Mobilization Department (CFPIR) – October 2009 

33 IIRSA –Initiative for the Integration of Regional Infrastructure in South America; Indicative Territorial 

Planning, Project Pori folio 2009 

34 IIRSA – Building a common future 

35 IIRSA – Building a New Continent; Projer:t Information Sheets – Priority Investment Portfolio in South 

America 

36a Flyer: MesoAmerica Electricity Integration 

36b Flyer: Proyecto Integracion y Desarollo Me . ;oAmerica 

36b Flyer: Procedimiento MesoAmericano Para El Transita Internacional de Mercancias (TIM) 




36d Flyer: Proyecto Integracion y Dessarrollo MesoAmeriac Acceleracion Del Corredor Pacifico 

37 Presentation: "Physical Integration of South America – Achievements and Progress of IIRSA" 

38 AU-ECA Meeting Africa's development challenge in the 21 century - 2008 

39 IMF Regional Economic Outlook Africa April 2010 - Back to high growth 

40 IMF World Economic Outlook 2010 - Rebalancing growth 

41 OECD African Economic Outlook 2010 - Macroeconomic development in Africa to 2010 

42 World Bank Financial commitments for infrastructure in Africa for 2008 

43 CEPED Croissance urbaine en Afrique 2009 

44 OCDE Les dynamiques démographiques en Afrique de l'Ouest 2007 

45 WB Evaluation of capacity development, 2006 

46 Debt Relief International - Macroeconomic financing key issues, 1999 

47 Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, Macroeconomic effects of public investment in 

infrastructure in India, 2006 

48 WB The cost of attaining the MDGs 

49 AU-ECA Economic Report Africa 2010 - Promoting growth 


1 



ENERGY SECTOR 

LIST OF CONSULTED DOCUMENTS IN THE ENERGY SECTOR – PIDA Study 

AU/NEPAD African Action Plan 2010 – 2015 – Advancing Regional and Continental 

Integration in Africa – NEPAD Planning anc Coordinating Agency, Midrand South Africa- 

2010 (Main and Final Technical Report) 

The NEPAD infrastructure Medium to Term Strategic Framework (MLTSF) Study- Discussion 

2 

Papers and Reports 


4 NEPAD Short Term Action Plan (STAP) Main Report– May 2002 


NEPAD Short Term Action Plan (STAP)- Draft RECs -Project Implementation Status Reports 

6 

2010 

7 African Development Bank (ADB) : Review of Regional Operations Draft – May 2010 

8 Proposal for Clean Energy Investment Framework for Africa 


9a •Power Sector Review 

9b •Power Spending Needs 

9c •Unit Costs of Infrastructure 

10 

11 

12 

13 

CAREC- Central Asia Economic Cooperation – Energy Action Plan Framework – Good 

Neighbors Good Partners. Good Prospect, – October 2009 

Agence Française de Développement et Banque Africaine de Développement ; L’ENERGIE 

EN AFRIQUE A L’HORIZON 2050 ; Etude conduite sous la direction de Jean-Pierre 

Favennec ; décembre 2009 ; 84 pages. 

Energy sector in the Mediterranean region, situation and prospective 2025; UNEP-MAP, 

Plan Bleu, AFD, November 2009 

Energy prospects in the Mediterranean region up to 2020 ; OME (Observatoire 

Méditerranéen de l'Energie) ; 

14 Plan Bleu, October 2006 

15 The World Bank Group; Energy Strategy Approach Paper; October 2009 

16 Continental Policy on Electricity, AUC, 2008 

17 Integrated African Energy Vision 2035, AUC, ECA & UNIDO, 2009 

18 ADB GROUP REGIONAL INTEGRATION STRATEGY, 2009-2012; February 2009 

19 

20 

21 

ADB ; FONDS SPÉCIAL DU MÉCANISME DE FINANCEMENT DE LA PRÉPARATION DES 

PROJETS D’INFRASTRUCTURE DU NEPAD (Fonds spécial IPPF-NEPAD) DIRECTIVES 

OPÉRATIONNELLES Octobre 2006 

AFREC ; Rapport sur l’atelier international portant sur le lancement de la mise en place du 

Système d’Information Energétique Africain ; 2005 

ICA; Power Supply situation in Africa; Infrastructure Consortium for Africa; Annual Meeting, 

13-14 March 2008 


22 

23 

24 



UNEP-UNECA; Making Africa’s Power Sector Sustainable; An Analysis of Power Sector 

Reforms in Africa; 2007 

UA-ADB; LE PLAN D’ACTION POUR L’AFRIQUE DE L’UA/NEPAD 2010-2015: Promouvoir 

l’intégration régionale et continentale en Afrique ; Les secteurs ; 2009 

UNDP; Energy in National Decentralization Policies; A review focusing on Least Developed 

Countries and Sub-Saharan Africa; 2009 

25 OECD-IEA; G8 Energy Ministers Meeting; IEA presentation ‘Energy poverty’; 2009 

26 

The World Bank Development Research Group Environment and Energy Team; The 

Economics of Renewable Energy Expansion in Rural Sub-Saharan Africa; January 2010 




TRANSPORT SECTOR 

LIST OF CONSULTED DOCUMENTS IN THE TRANSPORT SECTOR – PIDA Study 


1 Integration in Africa – NEPAD Planning anc Coordinating Agency, Midrand South Africa- 



Assessing Regional Integration in Africa IV – Enhancing Intra-African Trade, - ECA, AU, ADB 

3 

Report- May 2010 

Africa's Infrastructure, A time for Transformaion, (Hard copy & electronic CD) – 2010; The 

3 

World Bank 



6 4.WB Regional Integration Investment Pipeline (FY10-FY14) 


7a •Air Transport Review 

7b •Railway Sector Review 

7c •Ports Review 

7d •Transport Spending Needs 

7e •Unit Costs of Infrastructure 

7f •Infrastructure and Growth in Africa – Cesar «alderon –Janauary 2008 

7g •Transport Prices and Costs in Africa: A rev ew of the main International Corridors; 

8 

9 

10 

11 

SSATP Working Paper No,89- A Framework for a pro-growth, Pro-poor Transport Strategy, 

Tesfamichaei Nahusenay Mitiku 

SSATP Working Paper No. 86 – Institutional Arrangements for Transport Corridor 

Management in Sub- Saharan Africa; Yao Adzigbey, Charles Kunaka, Tesfamichel 

Nahusenay Mitiku 

SSATP- Second Development Plan 2008 – 2011 – Fostering Sound Policies and Strategies 

for the Provision of Reliable, Safe, Efficient and Affordable Transport, October 2007 

IDA 15 Mid-Term Review of the IDA Regional Program – International Development 

Association – IDA Resource Mobilization Department (CFPIR) – October 2009 

12 Assessing Regional Integration in Africa volume 1, 2 and 3 by ECA and AU 

13 Economic report on Africa 2009 and 2010 ECA and AU 

14 Regional Economic Programme 2006-2010 (UEMOA) 

15 Road network upgrading and overland trade expension in Sub Saharan Africa World Bank 

16 Developpement du reseau consensuel de l'Afrique Centrale by ECA 

17 World Bank SSATP Gazing into the mirror Operational internal control in Cameroon Customs 




18 World Bank SSATP The Chirundu Border post 

1 

TWRM SECTOR 

LIST OF CONSULTED DOCUMENTS IN THE TWR SECTOR – PIDA Study 


Integration in Africa – NEPAD Planning anc Coordinating Agency, Midrand South Africa- 


The NEPAD infrastructure Medium to Term Strategic Framework (MLTSF) Study- Discussion 

2 

Papers and Reports 


4 "African Economic Outlook (AEO) 2010 



NEPAD Short Term Action Plan (STAP)- Second Review of Implementation Progress and 

7 

8 

Way Forward – Continental Synthesis Report 2004 

NEPAD Short Term Action Plan (STAP)- Draft RECs -Project Implementation Status Reports 

2010 

9 AfDB, 2000: Policy for Integrated Water Resources 

10 

Africa's Infrastructure, A time for Transformation, (Hard copy & electronic CD) – 2010; The 

World Bank 



13 WB Regional Integration Investment Pipeline (FY10-FY14) 


14a •Irrigation Sector Review 

14b •Water Sector Review 

14c •Sanitation Sector Review 

14d •Irrigation Spending Needs 

15 AICD Working Papers 

15a •Infrastructure and Growth in Africa – Cesar «alderon –Janauary 2008 

15b 

15c 

•Cost Recovery, Equity and Efficiency in Water Tariffs: Evidence from African Utilities; - 

Sudeshua Banerjee, Vivien Forster, Yvonne Ying, Heather Skilling and Quetin Wodon – May 

2008 

•Provision of Water to the Poor in Africa. Experience with Water Standpost and Informai 

Sector: Sarah Keener, Manuel Luengo, and Sudeshna Banerjee, April 2009 




15d •Water Reforms in Senegal: A Regional cnd Interpersonal Distribution Impact Analysis 

16 

17 

AfDB, 2005 : The Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Initiative (RWSSI), Launching 

Documents. 

AfDB, AWF, 2004: Instrument for the Establishment of the Africa Water Facility Special Fund 

(Administered by the AfDB) 

18 AMCOW Bulletins 

19 

20 

21 

22 

23 

AMCOW, 2002 : Statement of African Ministerial Conference on Water at the World Summit 

on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg, South 

AMCOW, 2002: The Abuja Ministerial Declaration on Water - a key to Sustainable 

Development in Africa. 

AMCOW, 2006 : Conference of African River and Lake Basin Organization, Conference 

Outcomes and Action Plan. 

AU , 2008 : Sharm El-Sheikh Commitments for Accelerating the Achievement of Water and 

Sanitation Goals in Africa. 

AU, 2007 : Guidelines for establishing a cooperative framework agreement for the integrated 

management of Transboundary basins. 

24 AU, ECA, AfDB, 2000: Africa Water Vision 2025 

25 AWF Project sheets and flyers 

26 

AWF, 2005: Operational Strategy, Operational Programm, Operational Procedurese 2005- 

2009 

27 AWF, 2006: AWF Communications strategy 

28 

AWF, 2010: AWF Operational Effectiveness Assessment. Discussions and Findings Report. 

Stakeholders Workshop April 26 -27, 2010 Pretoria, South Africa. 

29 AWF, AfDB, 2009 : PIDA Transboundary Water Resources Study, Appraisal Report 

30 

AWF, WOUDENEH T., 2010: Effectiveness Assessment of the African Water Facility (AWF) 

Stakeholders Workshop April 26 -27, 2010 Pretoria, South Africa. 

31 Declaration of Johannesburg on water for development and the fight against poverty. 

32 EC, 2002 : The EU Water Initiative Launching documents 

33 ESA, 2005 : TIGER Strategic Document for Africa 2000-2015. 

34 ESA, 2006 : The TIGER Initiative Implementation Plan 2005-2007, Revision 2006. 

35 FAO – AQUASTAT: Several publications and databases on Irrigation in Africa (FAO website) 

36 

GWP, UNDP, 2005 : L’Intiative Canadienne (PAWD), Programme for Water Development in 

Africa . 




37 MDG Task Force on Environmental Sustainability : Reports 

38 MDG Task Force on Water and Sanitation : Reports 

39 Ministerial Declaration of the First African Water Week 2008. 

40 Ministerial Declaration of the Hague Conference on Water security in the 21st Century. 

41 MLSTF, 2007: Water Sector,, Part I, Discussion Paper 

42 

Personal library on tranboundary water resources management, river basin management, 

dams 

43 Several specific documents related to the selected Lake and River Basins 

44 

45 

46 

47 

Sirte Declaration on the challenges of implementing integrated and sustainable development 

on agriculture and water in Africa. 

Task force reports on Water and sanition of the UN Millenium Project (unmilleniumproject 

website 

UN-Water/Africa & AMCOW, 2004 : Outcomes and Recommendations of the Pan African 

Implementation and Partnership Conference. 

UNECA, 2000 : African Water Development Report, Transboundary River/ Lake Basin Water 

Development in Africa: Prospects, Problems and Achievements. 

48 UNECA, 2001 : State of the Environment in Africa. 

49 

50 

51 

UNEP 2002 : Africa Environment Outlook – Past present and Future perspectives (UNEP 

website) 

World Commission on Dams, 2000 : Dams and Development – A new framework for 

decision making. 

AfDB, 2005 : The Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Initiative (RWSSI), Launching 

Documents. 




ICT SECTOR 

LIST OF CONSULTED DOCUMENTS IN THE ICT SECTOR – PIDA Study 

1 ADB- Africa Infrastructure Maps (Roads, Railway, Electricity, Optical Fibre) 

2 ADB: Bank Group's Information & Communication Technologies (ICT) Operations Strategy – 

Revised Version –ADF/BD/WP/2008/74/Rev.1 03 October 2008 


3a •ICT Sector Review 

3b •ICT Investment Needs 

4 Presentation: "Physical Integration of South America – Achievements and Progress of IIRSA" 

5 Africa Analysis – Telecom – IT. Media – I'roject: Feasibility Study for the Terrestrial Segment 

of the NEPAD ICT Broadband Infrastructure Network for Eastern and Southern Africa – 

Issued tu : Brion Cheesman- NEPAD e-Commission 

6 Harmonized ICT Policies in ACP countries HIPPSA 

7 Perspectives économiques en Afrique © BAfD/OCDE 2009 

8 STUDY ON HARMONISATION OF TELECOMMUNICATION,INFORMATION AND 

COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION 

TECHNOLOGIES UA 2008 

9 Appui à l'harmonisation des politiques relatives aux TIC en Afrique subsaharienne Stratégie 

de mise en œuvre Sandro Bazzanella 

10 Harmonisation réglementaire des TIC Étude comparée des initiatives régionales 

11 Union Internationale des télécommunications Rapport final and Cartes des réseaux par pays 

Rapport sur les infrastructures des Technologies de l’Information et de la Communication en 

Afrique Centrale, Ouest et Nord 2005 

12 TELECOMMUNICATION/ICT MARKETS AND TRENDS IN AFRICA ITU 2007 

13 ICT in Africa: Boosting Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction InfoDev 2008 

14 2006 Information and Communications for Development WB 

15 

African ICT Week (AICTW) Concept Paper UA Nov 2009 

16 

ITU-D Information Society Statistical Profiles 2009 Africa 

17 WB 2009 Extending Reach and increasing Impact 

18 WB 2009 Broadband for Africa M D Williams 

19 (2009)PROGRESS REPORT ON THE SINGLE EUROPEAN ELECTRONIC 

COMMUNICATIONS MARKET (14th REPORT) Vol 1 + 2 and annex 

20 ITU Data Africa 2007 




21 AICD Information and Communications Technology in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Sector Review 

2009 

22 AICD Connecting the Continent: Costing the Needs for Spending on ICT Infrastructure in 

Africa 2009 

23 AICD Information and Communication Technologies: A Boost for Growth 2009 

24 The Opportunities and Challenges of the East African Submarine Cable System (EASsy) 

Dawit Bekele Internet Society 

25 

Highlights of the Internet for Africa meeting, Montpellier 10-12 Dec 2007 

26 

Internet Connectivity in Africa Montpellier 10-12 Dec 2007 

27 Internet Exchange Points: A Business & Policy Perspective AFIX Decision-makers’ 

Workshop 

28 Information Communications Technologies and Regional Integration: Africa and South 

America; Information Communications Technologies and Regional Integration 

29 

ICT for Development and the MDGs 

30 

Achieving the Millennium Development Goals in Africa UA 2008 




ANNEXE 2 

List of people met 


LIST OF PEOPLE MET 

Cross Sector 

Name Position Institution 

ADB- NEPAD, Regional 

Rugamba (Mr) Alex Director 

Integration and Trade 

Department- ONRI-ADB 


Oumarou (Mr) Amadou Division Manager 




Chirwa Mtchera Jhonson (Mr) Principal PPP Infrastructure Specialist Integration and Trade 



Ajijo Micah Olaseni (Mr) Consultant- PIDA Study Coodinator Integration and Trade 


ADB- African Water 

Besong Raymonde (Mr) Civil Engineer Consultant 

Facility Department- AfW- 

ADB 

ADB- Infrastracture 

Diallo (Mr) Amadou Thierno Division Manager 

Department- Energy & ICT 

Division- OINF 


Fernands Cardy (Mr) Peter Infrastructure Expert 




Moulot (Mr) Jacques Chief Energy Expert 



ADB- Infrastracture 

Salieu (Mr) Jack ICT Enginner 

Department- Energy & ICT 

Division- OINF 

Wada (Mr) Momoko Institutional/ Financial Expert African Development Bank 

ADB- African Water 

Woudeneh (Mr) Tefera Chief Water Expert 

Facility Department- AfW- 

ADB 

WB- Sustainable 

Beides Hussam (Mr) Senior Energy Specialist 

Development Unit Middle 

East & North Africa Region 

Delmon Jeff (Mr) 

Senior Infrastructure Specialist 

WB- SDNVP- Finance, 

Economics & Urban 

Dominguez Torres Carolina (Ms) Consultant, AICD WSS, World Bank AICD WSS, World Bank 

Dongier Philippe (Mr) Sector Manager 

WB- Global ICT 

Department

Frederico Barra Alvaro (Mr) 

GIS Analyst 


Development Department 

Middle East & North Africa 

Region 

Guermazi Boutheina (Ms) Sr. Regulatory Specialist 

WB-Policy Division- 

Global Information & 

Communication 

Technologies 

Heather Worley (Ms) Communication Officer The World Bank 

K. Ahmad Junaid (Mr) Sector Manager 

WB-Urban & Water- 

Kabanguka Jean Kizito (Mr) Senior Transportation Specialist 

Kimura Kaoru (Mr) Operations Analyst 

Laszlo Lovei (Mr) Director 

Leigland James (Mr) Program Leader 

Leydier Stephanie (Ms) Senior Investment Officer 

African Region 

WB-SSATP Regional 

Coordinator Eastern and 

Southern Africa 

WB-Global Information & 

Communication 

Technologies Policy 

Division 



Middle East & North Africa 

Region 

PPIAF- Sub-National 

Technical Assistance 

IFC-Global Information & 

Communication 

Technologies Department 

Luis Irigoyen Jose (Mr) Senior Manager 



- Africa Region 

M. Ghzala Abdelmoula (Mr) Lead Infrastructure Specialist WB-Mena Region 

IFC-Global Information & 

Muente- Kunigami Arturo (Mr) ICT Policy Specialist 

Communication 

Technologies 

Murray Siobhan (Mr) 

GIS Analyst 

WB- Development 

Economics Research 

Group 

Scobey Richard (Mr) Acting Director 

WB- Regional Integration- 

Africa Region 

WB-Global Information & 

Silarszky Peter (Mr) Senior Economist 

Communication 

Technologies 

Tjaarda P. Storm Van Leeuwen (Mr) Adviser Africa Energy Group 

Vincent Stephen (Mr) SSATP Program Manager 

WB- Sub-Saharan Africa 

Williams Mark (Mr) Senior Economist 

Transport Policy Program 

WB- Global ICT 

Department

TWR Sector 

Name Position and Institution 

Tefera Woudeneh Officer in Charge, African Water Facility, AfDB 

Raymonde Besong African Water Facility, AfDB 

Mekuria Tafesse Consultant, Member of the PIDA Panel of 

Experts 

Carolina Dominguez 

Torres 

Consultant, AICD WSS, World Bank 

Alfredo Federico GIS analyst, Sustainable Development Africa 

Barra 

Region, World Bank 

Tjaarda P. Storm Van 

Leeuwen 

Adviser, Africa Energy Group 

Brian Blankespoor Spatial Analysis Expert, Development 

Economics Research Group, World Bank 

Ashok K. 

Sector Manager WRM Africa Region 

Subramanian, 

Amal Talbi Water Resources Management Africa Region, 

World bank 

Eileen Burke Water Resources Management Africa Region, 

World bank 

Varadan Atur Water Resources Management Africa Region, 

World bank 

Barbara A. Miller Lead Water Resources Specialist, Nile 

Program Coordinator, World Bank 

François Onimus Sr. Irrigation and Water manag. Specialist, 

Africa Region 

Rimma Dankova Africa Water Resources Management 

(AFTWR), World Bank 

Junaid K. Ahmad Sector Manager, Urban and Water, Africa 

Region 

Liangzhi You Senior Scientist. Environment and Production 

Technology Division. IFPRI, Washington 

Stathis Dalamangas Head of Water sector . Quality Support to 

Operations. EuropeAid Co-operation office.

ICT Sector 

Name Position and Institution 

Amadou Diallo Energy and ICT, AfDB 

Jack Salieu Chief information and communications 

Technology, AfDB 

Mark Williams Senior economist Global ICT Department WB 

Philippe Dongier Sector manager , Global ICT Department WB 

Siobhan Murray GIS Analyst, WB 

Laurent Besancon Senior economist Global ICT Department WB 

Boutheima Guermazi Senior regulatory specialist Policy division Global 

ICT WB 

Peter Silarsky Senior economist Global ICT WB 

Michael Minges Senior Market analyst TMC 

Stéphanie Leydier Senior investment officer IFC 

Vincent Teissier Europe and Africa Manager Cogentcom (IP 

operator) 

Yann Burtin Senior operation Manager Global ICT WB 

Remi Kekete Lawyer Gide Loyrette 

Hippsa programme 

Jean François 

Project Manager – project manager HIPPSA ITU- 

LeBihan* 

EC Project 

Sandro Bazzanella* Project Manager - Directeur de Projet HIPPSA 

ITU-EC Project 

Harry DeBaker* EU Delegation to the African Union 

Bob Fletcher Renesys Senior Director Internet data service 

Frederic Saillet Alcatel-Lucent Responsable zone Afrique 

François Malterre Interoute Africa (IP operator) 

Carlo Stefanini* 

* Phone contact 

Ericsson Responsable zone Afrique

Transport 

Name Position Institution 

Anthony Edy 

Kokouvi (Mr) 

Transport Expert 

Organisation du Corridor Abidjan- 

Lagos 

Athman Mohamed 

(Mr) 

Consultant Customs ICT Trade Mark -East Africa 

Chetima Tejani (Mr) Economic Affairs Officer UNECA 

Horne-Ferreira 

Brenda (Ms) 

Cheif Executive Officer 

Maputo Corridor Logistics Initiative- 

MCLI 

Kilonzo Mutuelle 

(Dr) 

Senior AdVISOR 

Lamu Port- Lapsset Corridor 

Development- Ministry of Transport 

Kioroniny Patrice 

Alain Hugues (Mr) 

Expert Pricipal 

Commission Internationale Du Bassin 

Congo- Oubangui- Sangha-CICOS- 

Kwamusi Paul (Mr) 

Road Safety Coordinator, 

Africa 

FIA Foundation 

Mwanyumba 

Jemimag (Ms) 

Port Management Association of 

Project Development Officer 

Eastern & Southern Africa 

Onyango Omoke 

Isaac (Mr) 

Port Statistics Officer 

Port Management Association of 

Eastern & Southern Africa 

Ouaedraogo Jean 

Bertin (Mr) 

Officer of the 

Sub-Saharan Africa Transport, Policy 

Program (SSATP) 

Simuyemba Shem 

(Mr) 

Senior Transsit & Trade 

Facilitation Advisor 

USAID Compte program 

Tumwebaze Hunter 

Fred (Mr) 

Programme Mannager 

Secretariat Permanent de l'Autorite de 

Coordination du Transport de Transit 

Wenk Yko Sakashit 

(Mr) 

NEPAD Infrastructure 

Advisor 

DBSA

Energy 

Name Position 

Alex RUGAMBA Director, ONRI 

Amadou OUMAROU Division Manager, ONRI .1 

Hela CHEIKHROUHOU Director Energy, Environment and Climate Change 

Micah AJIJO Consultant, PIDA Study Coordinator, ONRI 1 

Jacques MOULOT Chief Energy Expert, ONRI.1 

Roger GAILLARD Lead Energy specialist, ONEC.1 

E.B NZABANIIA O/C ONEC-2 

E. NEGASH Power Engineer ONEC-2 

V. ZONGO Financial analyst ONEC-1 

Kurt LONSWAY Manager ONEC-3 

Peter FERNANDEZ DFID 

Johannes CHIRWA Principal PPP Infrastructure Specialist 

PRATFUL PATEL Consultant, Leader of the PIDA Panel of Experts 

Guy DARLAN Consultant, Member of the PIDA Panel of Experts 

Tafesse MEKURIA Consultant, Member of the PIDA Panel of Experts 

Jonathan WALTERS Sector Manager Transport and Energy MENA, World Bank



ANNEXE 3 

List of Team members and 

Expertise 


Name of 

Expert 

Jean- 

François 

BAUER 

Etienne 

SOLTESZ 

Jacques 

FRANSENN 

Olivier 

D’AUZON 

Jean-Pierre 

DIEHL 

Patrick 

FUSILIER 

Position 

Programme 

Leader 

Institutional 

and 

development 

economist 

Environnemen 

tal Expert 

Years of 

Experience 

32 65 

31 61 

44 71 

Legal advisor 20 45 


economist 

Monitoring 

expert 

42 71 

33 59 

Age Educational Background Specialist areas of knowledge 

PhD Economics 

Mining Engineering 

graduate 

Postgraduate degree in 

business administration 

Master of Economics 

More than 35 years of experience in development economics, 

including 27 years at the World Bank, mainly in the design and 

implementation of adjustment and investment projects, 

primarily in infrastructure 

Over 25 years’ experience in development economics and 

public finance planning and budgeting in transition and 

developing countries. 

Post-doctorate in Integrated 

Environmental Management 

21 years of experience in the field of environmental and social 

Doctorate in Biology 

management of development projects in Africa 

Postgraduate studies 

diploma in International 

Transport and Distribution 

MA in Contract Law 

Master of Science in 

Operations Research 

Ph.D. in Political Science 

Specialisation: Economic 


DEA (Advanced 

postgraduate studies 

diploma) in socio-economics 

Over 15 years of professional experience as a legal expert in 

the infrastructure and transport sector 

39 years of experience as economist, especially in the 

infrastructure and transport sector 

In-depth knowledge and hands-on experience of Project Cycle 

Management Monitoring & Evaluation, and Logical Framework 

methodology. 

Great experience of monitoring methods and tools: has carried 

out numerous monitoring missions, as well as mid-term and 

final evaluations. 

Experience in 

beneficiary 

country 

Togo 

Niger 

Mali 

CEMAC 

WAEMU 

Gabon 

LIST OF STAFF 


Languages 

and degree of 

fluency (VG, 

G, W) 

SOFRECO Led Consortium 1 

Guinea 

Algeria 

Burundi 

Rwanda 

DR Congo 

Benin 

Gabon 

Tunisia 

Algeria 

Morocco 

DR Congo 

Guinea 

Cameroon 

Gabon 

Central African 

Republic 

Algeria 

Nigeria 

Ghana 

Burkina Faso 

Mali 

Mauritania 

Egypt 

Mozambique 

South Africa 

Burkina Faso 

Egypt 

Tunisia 

DR Congo 

English: VG 

French : VG 

English: VG 

French : VG 

English: VG 

French : VG 

English: VG 

French : VG 

English: VG 

French : VG 

English: VG 

French : VG

Name of 

Expert 

Eliot 

SIMPSON 

Scott 

JAZYNKA 

Laurence 

WILHELM 

Alain 

LESAFFRE 

Lynn 

HARMON 

Pierre-Yves 

BEZY 

Position 

Project finance 

expert 

Years of 

Experience 

35 61 

PPP expert 23 48 

Social expert 37 60 

Trade/ 

customs 

expert 

Corridors 

expert 

Multimodal 

expert 

32 63 


PhD: Economy & 

management 

(Finance/Marketing) 

MSc: Business 

administration 

(Accounting/Finance/Audit) 

M.B.A., Finance & 

Investments 

B.B.A., International 

Business 

DESS (specialised 

postgraduate studies 

diploma) in Political Science 

Graduate of IUED (MSc 

Sociology & Anthropology) 

Customs inspector 

qualification 

Uniformed customs officer 

qualification 

Bachelor of Law (validated 

after getting into the National 

School of Customs in 1973) 

35 67 B.A. Government 

34 61 MBA 

Infrastructure & equipment planning / investment: 

Identification, appraisal ToR/tender documents & feasibility 

studies, implementation, post-evaluation 

More than 28 years experience as an investment banker, 

senior manager, financial analyst, PPP consultant and utility 

regulator in developed and developing countries 

Considerable experience of Environmental and Social Impact 

Assessment (infrastructures, facilities, roads), Social 

Management Plan; Involuntary resettlement Plan, 

Compensation measures. 

Solid international experience: held an appointment for 6 years 

at the World Customs Organization in Brussels; since 1993 

has conducted dozens of consultancy and training missions in 

developing and transition countries. 

for over 20 years in transport and logistics improvements, 

private sector participation in infrastructure, and institutional 

strengthening for regional integration and trade facilitation in 

Africa, the South Balkans, Central America and Asia. 

Transport economist, freight forwarding business, with 35 

years of professional experience. 

Specific expertise in multimodal transport/maritime transport 

Experience in 

beneficiary 

country 

Gabon 

Congo 

Morocco 

Cameroon, 

Equatorial 

Guinea 

Togo 

Central Africa 

Botswana 

Zambia 

Malawi 

South Africa 

Egypt 

LIST OF STAFF 


Languages 

and degree of 

fluency (VG, 

G, W) 

English: VG 

French : VG 


Nigeria 

Chad 

RD Congo 

Burkina Faso 

Cameroon 

Mali 

Ethiopia 

Algeria 

Tunisia 

Central African 

Republic 

Mali 

Burkina Faso 

Senegal 

Namibia 

Angola 

Botswana 

Malawi 

Burkina Faso 

Tunisia 

English: VG 

French : G 

English: VG 

French : VG 

English: VG 

French : VG 

English: G 

French : VG 

English: VG 

French : VG

Name of 

Expert 

CONTRACTING 

IN PROGRESS 

Francisco 

SERRANITO 

Position 

Years of 

Experience 


GIS CONTRACTING IN PROGRESS CONTRACTING IN PROGRESS 

Macro 

Economist 

16 41 

Ph.D. Economics 

MBA in Applied 

Econometrics 

Very good practical experience in Designing and running 

macroeconomic models as well as Macroeconomic and fiscal 

diagnostics and analysis in transition economies. 

 

 

 

 

 

Experience in 

beneficiary 

country 

CONTRACTING 

IN PROGRESS 

Morocco 

Burkina Faso 

Senegal 

LIST OF STAFF 


Languages 

and degree of 

fluency (VG, 

G, W) 

CONTRACTING 

IN PROGRESS 

English: VG 

French : VG 

SOFRECO Led Consortium 3

Name of 

Expert 

Ananda M. 

COVINDASSAMY 

Eugene 

McArthy 

Idir 

KENDEL 

Donald Ian 

HERTZMARK 

Position 

Years of 

Experience 

Leader energy 38 65 

Strategy 

energy 

Program 

energy 

Energy 

Projection 


PhD Business and 

Economics 

41 68 Ph.D. Organic geochemistry 

36 60 

35 32 

PhD Development 

Economics 

Ph.D, Natural Resources 

Economics 

Over 35 years experience in the energy sector 

Over 15 years of experience in the preparation and 

assessment of energy strategies and policies. 

Quality Assessment: evaluation of development impact of 

projects and policy based operations with emphasis on 

infrastructure; 

Vast Experience in the Energy sector: policy formulation, 

institutional appraisal, privatization and environmental 

mitigation in developing countries. 

33 years of experience in the energy sector, gained in an 

African national electricity company, then as a energy 

economist working as consultant in various countries. 

Senior economist specialised in simulation and projection work 

in the Energy Sector, and more precisely across Africa 

30 years of experience in energy economics and modelling 

 

Experience in 

beneficiary 

country 

DR Congo 

Morocco 

Egypt 

Tunisia 

Uganda 

Mozambique 

Benin 

Côte d’Ivoire 

Cameroon 

Togo 

Tanzania 

Uganda 

Mozambique 

Gabon 

Ivory Coast 

Algeria 

Cameroon 

Niger 

Morocco 

Mauritania 

Senegal 

Gabon 

Ivory Coast 

Uganda 

Tanzania 

LIST OF STAFF 


Languages 

and degree of 

fluency (VG, 

G, W) 

English: VG 

French : VG 

English: VG 

French : VG 

English: G 

French : VG 

English: VG 

French : G 


Name of 

Expert 

Bernard 

CHATELIN 

Alain 

BALLEREAU 

Vesselin 

SIAROV 

Xavier 

NOUGUES 

Yves LE 

GLOANNEC 

Gilbert 

Edouard 

BILLIEZ 

Position 

Leader 

transport 

Strategy 

transport 

Prg road 

transport 

Prg rail 

transport 

Prg sea 

transport 

Prg air 

transport 

Years of 

Experience 

43 70 

39 67 

16 45 

41 65 

37 66 

40 65 


PhD in Transport 

Communications 

Economy 

BA in economics 

MA in Political Economy 

PhD in Development 

Economics 

PhD in Geography, 

speciality “Spatial 

Planning and Transport” 

MA in Engineering 

Maritime school 

Ph. D. in maritime 

transport 

MBA 

Master of Airport 

Management 

Civil aviation Engineer 

Over 35 years of experience in the field of Transport of which 

over 30 years in developing and transition countries, gained in 

various contexts (Private sector, United Nations and World 

Bank funded projects), mainly in African countries. 

30 years of experience with the World Bank in the transport 

sector, dealing with policy issues assessment, strategy 

development, and complex national investment programs and 

plans. 

16 years of experience in the transport sector, mainly in the 

road sector both goods and passenger markets. He has 

extensive experience of Mediterranean issues. 

Over 40 years of professional experience, gained in various 

countries especially in Africa, in the field of railways. 

Over 35 years of professional experience, gained in various 

countries, mostly in Africa, of maritime, port management and 

inland water studies. 

In-depth knowledge and hands-on experience of all of fields of 

civil aviation: after technical positions, specialised in airport 

management, airport master plan development and the 

restructuring of civil aviation administration 

Experience in 

beneficiary 

country 

Ghana 

Algeria 

Gabon 

DR Congo 

Egypt 

Tunisia 

Ethiopia 

Mozambique 

Togo 

Mali 

Chad 

Gabon 

Ivory Coast 

RD Congo 

Tanzania 

Tunisia 

Morocco 

LIST OF STAFF 


Languages 

and degree of 

fluency (VG, 

G, W) 

English: VG 

French : VG 

English: VG 

French : VG 

English VG 

French VG 


Congo, 

Gabon, 

Tunisia 

Algeria 

Senegal 

Morocco 

Angola 

Guinea 

Algeria 

Gabon 

Senegal 

Cameroon 

Zambia 

DR Congo 

Niger 

English G 

French VG 

English: G 

French : VG 

English: VG 

French : VG

Name of 

Expert 

Olivier 

COGELS 

Michel 

SOULIE 

Amaury 

TILMANT 

Jacques 

MARCHAND 

Malcolm T. 

SUMMERFIELD 

Position 

Years of 

Experience 

Leader TWR 34 59 

Strategy water 38 64 

Prg hydro 

water 

Prg ground 

water 

Prg supply 

water 

14 38 

37 65 


Ph.D. in Agricultural 

Engineering (Irrigation 

and Water Resources 

Management) 

M.Sc. in Agricultural 

Engineering (Irrigation 

and Agricultural Water 

Management) 

Ph.D. in Applied Geology 

Master of Sciences in 

Geology 

PhD in Agricultural 

Engineering (Water 

Resources Management) 

MSc Agricultural 

Engineering 

PhD in Earth Sciences 

and Hydrogeology 

Advanced postgraduate 

studies diploma in 

Groundwater 

37 66 M.Sc. Economics 

Integrated water resources management and transboundary 

river basin management specialist with 30 years of 

international experience in over 25 countries worldwide. Focus 

on policies, strategies, programmes and projects, institutions, 

and international cooperation for the management of 

transboundary water resources. 

More than 15 years of professional experience in Integrated 

Water Resources Management issues. Institutional 

strengthening of water management at international and 

national level: promoting institutional reforms, developing 

sustainable water environmental policy, improving water law 

and regulatory framework 

Strong experience of integrated water resources management 

and transboundary river basin management. 

Good knowledge of the PPPs Challenges 

Specialist in the implementation of water resources Projects 

Africa, Latin America, Far and Middle East, Indian Sub 

Continent, Central Asia with over 35 years of experience in 

managerial and technical roles. 

35 years of experience working on Water planning and 

feasibility studies in Africa, Asia, Middle East, Eastern and 

Central Europe, Europe, Central & South America. 

Experience in 

beneficiary 

country 

Morocco 

Senegal 

Egypt 

Mauritania 

Burundi 

Niger 

Morocco 

Mauritania 

Mali 

Guinea 

Nigeria 

Chad, Cameroon 

Botswana 

Zimbabwe 

South Africa, 

Mozambique 

Swaziland 

Zambia 

Sudan 

Ethiopia 

LIST OF STAFF 


Languages 

and degree of 

fluency (VG, 

G, W) 

English: VG 

French : VG 

English: VG 

French : VG 

English: VG 

French : VG 


Malawi 

Algeria 

Gabon 

Nigeria 

Malawi, 

Mozambique 

Nigeria 

Tanzania 

Ivory Coast 

English: VG 

French : VG 

English: VG 

French : VG

Name of 

Expert 

Olivier 

DEMEURE 

Romain 

SOENEN 

Position 

Prg. Irrig. 

Water 

Years of 

Experience 

30 57 

Model water 35 61 


Master in Science, 

agronomist engineer in 

rural infrastructure 

BSc Town and Rural 

Planning 

Full career as irrigation engineer and hydraulics expert. 

Large experience in land planning projects 

Designer of large and medium irrigation schemes, including 

intake structures, sand trapping structures, weirs, Neyrtec 

flumes, pumping stations, furrow irrigation, flood irrigation, 

sprinkler and drip irrigation, etc 

Over 30 years of professional experience in the water sector, 

gained both in Belgium and abroad, mainly in African countries 

In-depth knowledge and hands-on experience of long term 

simulation and projection work in the water sector 

 

 

 

 

Experience in 

beneficiary 

country 

Mali 

Morocco 

Algeria 

Niger 

Cameroon 

Senegal 

Algeria 

Morocco 

Burkina Faso 

Togo 

LIST OF STAFF 


Languages 

and degree of 

fluency (VG, 

G, W) 

English: VG 

French : VG 

English: VG 

French : VG 


Name of 

Expert 

Claude DE 

JACQUELOT 

Michael R 

JENSEN 

Gilles 

CHAPUIS 

Andre 

WILLS 

Position 

Years of 

Experience 


Leader ICT 33 59 Telecom Engineer degree 

Strategy 

Expert 

Programme 

Expert 

Projection 

Expert 

27 52 

MSc, Resource 


32 58 Engineering Degree ICPI 

23 48 

BSc Chemical 

Engineering 

30 years experience in ICT 

Extensive experience of technical aspects of telecom operator 

infrastructures (Extensive experience in strategic development 

& Network planning, SDH/DWDM , Switching, Access 

(ADSL,..) networks 

More than 20 years experience in design, evaluation, training, 

strategy development, market assessments and 

implementation of electronic communications media – 

telecommunications, mobile, Internet and computer-based 

information networks for governments, development agencies 

and the private sector from 1984 to present. 

Over 17 years of working experience in ICT as a consultant 

and project manager in Africa 

Extensive experience of telecommunications projects and 

implementation of Telecom Network in Africa, including 

planning, implementation, review and evaluation 

More than 20 years in telecommunications projects that have 

required both a telecommunications strategic and business 

analysis in various countries in Africa 

Experience in 

beneficiary 

country 

Gabon 

DR Congo 

Senegal 

Tunisia 

Morocco 

Senegal 

Ghana 

Liberia 

Morocco 

South Africa 

Nigeria 

Cameroon, 

LIST OF STAFF 


Languages 

and degree of 

fluency (VG, 

G, W) 

English: G 

French : VG 


Senegal 

Ivory Coast 

Kenya 

South Africa 

Tanzania 

Ethiopia 

Djibouti 

Nigeria 

Botswana 

Lesotho 

South Africa 

Tanzania 

Namibia 

English: VG 

French : G 

English: VG 

French : VG 

English: VG 

French : F



ANNEXE 4 

Specific Sector Annexes 



Annex A Country Score Card 

Annex B REC Score Card 

Annex C Inventory of Regional Projects 

ANNEXE 4 

Specific Sector Annexes 

ENERGY 

Annex D Outline of Energy Sector Strategic Framework 

Annex E Methodology for preparing the Outline of Strategic Framework 

Annex F Statistical Tables 



Annex A 

Country Score Card 

Country Name: 

Number of households 

Finance National Creditworthiness 

Sovereign credit rating 

Sovereign bond terms and rating 

Power System description 

Power installed capacity 

Power available capacity 

Length of >110 kV network 

Capacity of interconnections 

Power availability 

Energy generation 

Energy consumption 

Energy imports(+)/Exports (-) 

Commercial and planning 

Commercial & non commercial losses 

Bill collection rate 

Average Tariff (USCents/kWh) 

Residential Tariff 

National Development Plan? 

LRMC 

Institutional 

Access rate 2009 



Monopolistic generation by law? 

Monopolistic distribution by law? 

Separate Regulator? 

IPPs? 


Market 

Utility 


Monopolistic, single buyer, competitive 

Long term contracts? 

Cash flow on operations 

% cash flow/revenues 

Overall country business climate assessment 



Annex B 

REC Score Card 

REC name 

Energy trade within the region 

Energy export outside of the region 

Managing a competitive regional market 

REC strategic objectives 

- lowering energy cost 

- accelerating access 

- poverty reduction 

- support to PPP 

- …… 

Existence of a regional water management mechanism 

REC Long Term Development Plan 

REC Long Term Transmission plan 

Coordination mechanism REC/national plans 

REC dispatch center 

REC technical standards 



Annex C Inventory 

of Regional 

Projects 

1 PURPOSE AND STATUS OF THE PROJECT 

1.1 MOTIVATIONS/OBJECTIVES FOR DEVELOPING THE PROJECT 

1.2 THE TRADE OR OFF-TAKE SOLUTION PUT IN PLACE 

1.3 PROGRESS AGAINST TARGETS TO DATE 

2 Regional Economic Context ....................................................................................... 

2.1 ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL CONTEXT, RANKING CRITERIA USED FOR 

INVESTMENT DECISION (PLACE IN SECTOR LONG TERM PLAN) .......................... 

2.2 REGIONAL SUPPLY CONTEXT 

2.3 REGIONAL DEMAND CONTEXT 

2.4 ENERGY TARIFFS IN PARTICIPATING COUNTRIES 

3 History of Scheme ........................................................................................................ 

3.1 OVERVIEW INCLUDING TIMELINE/CHRONOLOGY 

3.2 PROJECT CONCEPT, OBJECTIVES, AND DEVELOPMENT 

3.3 PREPARATORY AND FEASIBILITY STUDIES DONE 

3.4 ASSETS BUILT 

3.5 CONTRIBUTION TO INTERCONNECTIONS AND ENERGY TRADE 

3.6 ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL ISSUES 

4 Institutional Arrangements .......................................................................................... 

4.1 WHAT IS THE NATURE OF THE ORGANIZATION TO GOVERN OR 

IMPLEMENT THE SCHEME? 

4.2 ROLE OF NATIONAL GOVERNMENTS AND REGIONAL INSTITUTIONS 

4.3 ROLE OF REGULATORY AGENCIES 



4.4 ROLE OF OUTSIDE AGENCIES 

5 Contractual, Financial and Pricing Arrangements ..................................................... 

5.1 CONTRACTS STRUCTURE 

5.2 OWNERSHIP AND FINANCE 

5.3 PRICING ARRANGEMENTS 



Annex D 

Outline of Energy 

Sector Strategic 

Framework 

1- General Continental Energy Sector Vision/overview 

2- World outlooks and change in the energy sector strategic context relevant to the African 

Continent and to each REC 

3- Stock-taking of NEPAD (STAP) and REC achievements and operational challenges in 

the energy sector 

4- How to better serve Africa? AU/NEPAD/REC comparative advantage 

5- Strategic Objectives and areas of focus 

a. Energy for the poor: 

b. Adaptation and contribution of Africa to climate change 

c. Promoting technological options suitable for Africa 

d. Promoting a multi-sector vision of energy at the continental and regional levels 

(with transport, water, IT…) 

e. ……… 

6- Continental and regional implications: differentiating priorities by region 

7- Implementing the Strategy: proposing a business plan for the energy sector 

a. Outcomes 

b. Outputs for Strategic Framework for the continent and by region and lines of 

business 

c. Inputs and resources deployment/adaptation 

i. Staffing resources 

ii. Dealing with the cost of implementation of the proposed Strategy… 

iii. …. 

8- M&E framework 

a. Monitoring criteria at the continental and regional levels 

b. Evaluation system 

c. Expected results 



Annexe E: 

Methodology for 

preparing the 

Outline of Strategic 

Framework 

1. Strategic relevance, including articulating a clear continental sector vision and strategy 

in the context of global and regional trends and the AU/NEPAD/REC mandate. 

(a) Sector vision and proposing specific goals. 

(b) Relevance to global development challenges at sector continental and regional levels 

(c) Investment issues and considerations 

(d) Links to poverty reduction. 

(e) Links to other sectors (transport, water and IT in particular). 

Check list for strategic relevance: 

Global world energy trends/challenges discussed 

Continental and Regional energy sector trends/challenges discussed 

Link to RECs’ agreements/conventions and international treaties on energy 

Link between energy and poverty reduction established 

Supporting data on links between energy (access and oil revenues management) and 

poverty reduction 

Inter-sector links discussed 

Role of NEPAD and RECs discussed 

2. Analytic Quality, including justifying AU/NEPAD/REC’s involvement in areas of the 

energy sector where public action is warranted and in terms of comparative advantage of 

NEPAD. AU, RECs. 

(a) Rationale for regional institutions intervention. 

(b) Rationale for AU/NEPAD/REC involvement 

(c) REC/AU/NEPAD policy framework and past performance in the energy sector (Tasks 

1.1.1, 1.1.2 and 

1.1.3) 

Check list for Analytic quality 

Rationale for public action discussed 

Rationale for AU/NEPAD/REC action discussed 



Comparative advantage of NEPAD involvement assessed 

Adequacy of NEPAD energy policy framework to support MLTSF 

Policy gaps to support Strategic Framework implementation identified 

NEPAD and RECs’ sector performance evaluated and lessons incorporated 

NEPAD and REC’s project portfolio analyzed 

3. Business focus including guidance to RECs on priorities, and energy planning 

methodology 

(a) Instruments. The Strategic Framework should present the range of recommended 

energy planning, project screening and policy evaluation instruments available to the 

AU/NEPAD/RECs. It should assess which instruments have worked better, under what 

circumstances, and explain how to exploit synergies and complementarities between 

different instruments. 

(b) Strategy and action plan. Present strategic priorities in the energy sector from the 

perspective of poverty impact; explain how the proposed continental and regional 

strategies for the energy sector responds to global challenges and lessons from 

experience. Provide an action matrix of medium-term goals and implementation 

strategy. Assess existing staff skills in AU, NEPAD and RECs and resources needed and 

available for the implementation of the energy strategy and discuss implementation risks 

and risk management strategy. 

(c) Regional-level disaggregation. The RECs should participate in formulating the 

Regional energy strategy at the Sub Regional level, to ensure a high degree of 

consistency between the AU/NEPAD Strategic Framework and Sub-Regional and 

National energy sector strategies. 

(d) Research agenda. The Strategic Framework should discuss knowledge management 

issues, and dissemination and awareness building. 

(e) Integrating risk identification and mitigation methods at the planning stage 

4. Monitoring of implementation (which includes establishing monitorable indicators of 

outcomes, and clear monitoring responsibilities) 

(a) Monitoring system and indicators. The Strategic Framework needs to include a 

monitoring and evaluation system. 

(b) Monitoring and evaluation frameworks. The Strategic Framework should present a 

framework for monitoring and evaluating implementation. It should spell out the links 

among focus areas, strategic objectives, NEPAD activities needed to meet the objectives 

and time-bound, monitorable medium-term goals. 

Check list for M&E: 

Implementation progress indicators established 

Outcome indicators established 

Baseline information presented 

Implementation targets specified 

Implementation timeframe established 

Monitoring schedules and responsibilities defined 



Annexe F 

Statistical Tables 

Electricity Access in 2005 (millions) 

Region 

Pop 

with 

access 

Pop 

without 

access 

Urban pop 

without 

access 

Rural pop 

without 

access 

Urban 

electrif 

(%) 

Consortium SOFRECO –MWH – NATHAN – SOFRECOM – SYSTRA – ASCON - CABIRA 

Rural 

electrif 

(%) 

Sub-Sahara 191 547 109 439 58 8 

MENA* 291 48 16 36 88 83 

East Asia 1,728 224 39 189 95 84 

South Asia 760 706 88 627 70 47 

Latin America 404 45 7 38 98 66 

World 4,875 1,577 284 1,339 90 62 

Source: IEA 2006. Note: Although reported for 2005, data are from earlier years. * Middle 

East and North Africa. 

2007 Final energy consumption of Africa (1000 TOE 

Coal, 

Combustible 

Petroleum 

renewable 

Electricity Gas 

… Total 

products 

and wastes 

Final 

Consu 

mptio 

n 

261497 112456 43377 28282 16577 … 462207 

Industry 25653 14408 19645 15336 9494 … 84536 

Transport 0 66234 394 1459 5 … 68092 

Residential - 

other 

Source: AfDB 

235844 25266 23338 5623 5806 … 295895


Power Generating Capacity in Africa (GW) 

2007 2015 2030 

Total Africa 153 178 280 

North Africa 37.2 52.5 96.8 

West Africa 9.6 14.7 39.7 

Central Africa 4.1 7.6 25.7 

Eastern Africa 4.1 7.5 23.2 

Southern Africa 56.3 73.5 117.6 

Island States 0.9 1.2 3.5 

Source: AfDB 

Total Capital Investment in power sector 2010- 2030 (billion 2005 US$) 

Production Transport Distribution Total / year 

Northern Africa (5 MICs) 82 29 62 173 7.5 

Rep. of South Africa 77 5 10 92 4.0 

Sub-Sahara Africa (41 Countries) 102 54 119 275 12.0 

Island States (6 Countries) 4 1 2 7 0.3 

AFRICA 265 89 194 547 23.8 

Source: AfDB

PIDA - Inception Report - African Development Bank

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