E S N W

leading economies—Brazil, China and
India—is about equal to the combined GDP
of the long- standing industrial powers of the
North—Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the
United Kingdom and the United States. 7 This
represents a dramatic rebalancing of global economic
power. In 1950, Brazil, China and India
together accounted for only 10% of the world
economy, while the six traditional economic
leaders of the North accounted for roughly
half. According to projections in this Report,
by 2050 Brazil China and India will together
account for 40% of global output (figure 3), far
surpassing the projected combined production
of today’s Group of Seven bloc. 8
Today, the South as a whole produces about
half of world economic output, up from about
a third in 1990. The combined GDP of eight
major developing countries alone—Argentina,
Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, South
Africa and Turkey—now equals the GDP of
the United States, still by far the world’s biggest
national economy. 9 As recently as 2005, the
combined economic weight of those eight
FIGURE 3
countries was barely half that of the United
States.
This major increase in share of economic
output would not mean much in human development
terms, however, if it had not been
accompanied by an unprecedented reduction
in deprivation and expansion of human capabilities.
The first Millennium Development Goal
of halving the proportion of people living on
less than $1.25 a day relative to 1990 has been
met three years before the target date. This is
primarily because of the success of some of the
most populous countries in eradicating extreme
poverty: Brazil, China and India have all dramatically
reduced the proportion of their people
who are income poor—Brazil from 17.2% of
the population in 1990 to 6.1% in 2009, China
from 60.2% in 1990 to 13.1% in 2008 and India
from 49.4% in 1990 to 32.7% in 2010. 10
Broader development challenges, however,
have not diminished. An estimated 1.57 billion
people, or more than 30% of the population of
the 104 countries studied for this Report, live in
multidimensional poverty, 11 a measure of both
Brazil, China and India combined are projected to account for 40% of global output by 2050, up from 10% in
1950
Share of global output (%)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1820
1860
1900
Brazil, China and India
1940
1980
2010
2050
Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom and the United States
Note: Output is measured in 1990 purchasing power parity dollars.
Source: HDRO interpolation of historical data from Maddison (2010) and projections based on Pardee Center for International Futures (2013).
PROJECTION
Today, the South as a
whole produces about
half of world economic
output, up from about
a third in 1990
Introduction | 13