SUDAN Food Security Outlook July to December 2011 ... - FEWS Net

SUDAN Food Security Outlook July to December 2011
Key messages
Late rains in most parts of Sudan and insecurity are likely to affect harvests
• The peaceful separation of Sudan and the Republic of
South Sudan on July 9, 2011 is a historic event that will
have significant impacts on the economy, livelihoods, and
food security conditions of both countries.
• The start of the rainy season in June/July has been
characterized by below‐average rainfall across east,
central, and west Sudan, leading to poor ground moisture
during the critical planting stage of the cropping cycle, and
raising concerns for harvest prospects.
• During the lean season (July to September), demand for
cereals will increase as food stocks diminish at household
and market levels. An estimated four million people in
Sudan are likely to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis
(IPC Phase 3) levels of food insecurity during this period,
including nearly two million IDPs in Darfur, 200,000 people
affected by conflict in South Kordofan, and 110,000‐
120,000 people displaced by conflict in Abeyi. About 1.7
million people in drought affected areas of Darfur, parts of
North Kordofan, Red Sea, Blue Nile, White Nile and Kassala
states are Stressed (IPC Phase 2).
Figure 1. Current estimated food security outcomes,
July 2011
For more information on the IPC Acute Food Insecurity Reference
Table, please see: www.fews.net/foodinsecurityscale.
Source: FEWS NET
• Food security is likely to improve during the harvest period (October to December) mostly to Stressed levels, though
Crisis levels of food insecurity will remain in Abeyi and parts of Darfur due to insecurity and limited access by
humanitarian agencies.
Seasonal calendar and critical events
Source: FEWS NET
FEWS NET Sudan (Khartoum) FEWS NET Washington
APT. 03/04 Nifeidy Building street 1717 H St NW FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors’ views expressed in this
39, Khartoum 2 Washington DC 20006 publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency
Tel: 249 912 844 285 info@fews.net for International Development or the United States Government.
sudan@fews.net
www.fews.net/sudan

SUDAN Food Security Outlook July to December 2011
Most likely food security scenario (July – December 2011)
As of July, more than four million people in Sudan are currently Figure 2. Most likely food security outcomes, July –
food insecure. In Darfur, the majority of the two million IDPs are in September 2011
Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and 50 percent of resident/host communities in
the drought‐affected areas of Darfur are Stressed (IPC Phase 2).
The majority of the 110,000 – 120,000 IDPs who were displaced by
recent fighting in Abeyi to various locations in South Sudan (e.g.
Warrap, Unity and Bahr el Ghazal states) are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
About one million people in parts of North Kordofan, Red Sea, Blue
Nile, White Nile and Kassala states are Stressed (IPC Phase 2). In
South Kordofan about 200,000 people, including 75,000 IDPs, are
in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
In spite of a forecast by the Sudan Meteorological Authority (SMA)
for average to above‐average rainfall in 2011, below‐average
rainfall across east, west, and central Sudan has led to dry
conditions and poor ground moisture during the critical planting
season (June – July). This is worrisome to farmers in areas where
the rainy season is short (northern parts of Darfur and Kordofan
states), as crops might not complete the ripening cycle. The late
start of the rains has also encouraged an outbreak of rats in many
locations (e.g. White Nile and Blue Nile State), which is expected to
cause additional disturbances during planting as rats dig and eat
planted seeds.
Food insecurity in the Outlook period is expected to be driven by
ongoing conflicts in Darfur, South Kordofan, and Abeyi; a
potentially poor 2010 harvest in drought‐prone areas of Darfur,
North Kordofan, Red Sea, and White Nile States; and reduced labor
migration from southerners to farms in the north.
During the lean season (July to September), demand for cereals
will increase as food stocks diminish at household level.
Diminished food stocks will also be exacerbated by the ongoing
conflicts in Darfur, South Kordofan, and Abeyi, and high levels of
tension in Blue Nile as many displaced households n Darfur failed
Famine Early Warning Systems Network
Source: FEWS NET
Figure 3. Most likely food security outcomes,
October – December, 2011
Source: FEWS NET
to cultivate last rainy season and many displaced/conflict affected
people in South Korofan and Abeyi have lost their food stocks and fled their home villages. Food security is likely to improve
during the harvest in October – January. In Darfur and south Kordofan state, food insecurity likely to improve from Crisis
level to Stressed, while food insecurity in most of the drought‐affected areas of North Kordofan, White Nile and Kassala
state will be minimal.
The peaceful separation of Sudan and the Republic of South Sudan on July 9, 2011 is an historic event that will have
significant impacts on the economy, livelihoods, and food security conditions of both countries. In Sudan, the separation
will increase the national budget deficit due to loss of oil revenue (about 70 percent of the country’s oil is produced in
South Sudan. This loss might necessitate economic reform policies that would increase prices of basic commodities and
services. The spontaneous return of Southerners from the north to the south and the reduced supply of seasonal
agricultural laborers from South Sudan have generated labor shortages in the semi‐mechanized rain‐fed sector of east and
central Sudan and the groundnut production areas of Kordofan and Darfur. The loss of the southern Sudan market led to
depressed prices of sorghum in the main supply areas of northern Sudan; while, the reduced flow of goods to South Sudan,
especially staple cereals and fuel, has caused prices to increase in markets that are mostly supplied from the north.
2

SUDAN Food Security Outlook July to December 2011
Since the spontaneous return of southerners from north to south Sudan started in October 2010, about 325,000 people
have returned. Humanitarian actors estimate that an additional 300,000 people will return to South Sudan over the coming
three months. However, increasing militia activities in South Sudan and heavy rains could block roads during August –
October, the peak of the rainy season. Deteriorating security conditions along the border also will likely affect the
livelihoods of nomadic tribes grazing their animals in both sides.
Following the good harvest in 2010 and trade restrictions that reduced grain flow from Sudan to South Sudan, staple food
prices remained stable during most of the second quarter of 2011. Prices are now 4 to 29 percent lower than the reference
year (2010) and 20 – 150 percent higher than the five‐year average. Prices in Darfur and South Kordofan are exceptions. In
Darfur, staple food prices remained high due to IDPs’ limited access to cultivation and the low production in North Darfur
due to long dry spells and pest infestations. The highest sorghum prices in June were in Al Fasher market (North Darfur),
where June prices were 150 percent and 114 percent above the five‐year average and the reference year, respectively. In
spite of the ongoing fighting and associated displacement, sorghum prices in Kadugli market (South Kordofan) decreased by
10 percent from May to June. This was apparently due to traders and households disposed stocks to avoid losses to
looting, confiscation and/or burning in the conflict. Cereal prices are expected to slightly increase over the first half of the
scenario period (July – September), i.e., the peak lean season. Prices during the second half of the scenario period will be
greatly influenced by the harvest, which begins in October 2011.
In parts of Darfur, the security situation is tense with sporadic fighting between Darfur rebels and the Sudanese Arm Forces
(SAF). The signing of the Doha peace agreement between Government of Sudan (GoS) and Justice and liberation Movement
(JLM) on July 14, 2011 has not yet materialized. Recent fighting between SAF and Darfur rebel groups in Shangil Tobaya in
North Darfur State has resulted in loss of lives, destruction of assets, crops, and food stocks, displacement, and disturbed
aid flows to affected areas. The continuation of violence during the cultivation season is likely to discourage IDPs from
returning home and farm, which jeopardizes the early recovery and rehabilitation programs by humanitarian actors and the
GoS’s planned IDP return program. Nonetheless, it is reported that some IDPs have started seasonal returns to cultivate in
their areas of origin and/or have leased land in areas adjacent to their camps. Darfurian refugees have reportedly returned
from Chad to Selea locality in West Darfur state during May and June. Similar patterns of return are also reported from IDP
camps in Nyala town to villages in Kass locality in South Darfur. A number of semi‐nomadic households have returned from
villages in Kebkabiya locality to Kuttum locality in North Darfur State. In addition, the population of Zamzam camp, the main
reception for recent IDPs from North Darfur, has increased from 50,000 to about 150,000 IDPS over the past 4‐5 months.
Nutritional status in Darfur is likely to deteriorate during the scenario period due to reduced access to food and food stocks,
and increased diarrhea/malaria morbidity. The Food Security Monitoring System (FSMS) of WFP carried out in North, West
and South Darfur during the starting of the lean season in May 2011, revealed that the food security situation has
deteriorated in North and West Darfur for all community groups (IDPs, mixed and resident communities) compared to
February 2011. There has been a shift of households from the food secure to the moderately food insecure category. The
deterioration in food security is mainly attributed to a weak purchasing power, less income opportunities in the pre‐lean
season and decreased food consumption scores.
Cereal prices in Darfur markets remained the highest in Sudan and are likely to increase further through September. Food
aid (which was reduced to a half ration in mid‐2010) and market purchases are the main food sources for IDPs, while casual
labor is the main source of income for most of the IDPs and poor households. Although agricultural labor opportunities are
likely to increase during the rainy season, most people will not be able to take advantage due to prevailing insecurity
conditions. Access to wild foods (a typical coping strategy) will also be constrained by insecurity and lack of free movement.
The majority of the two million IDPs in Darfur will continue to face a food consumption deficit through September and
remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). About 50 percent of the residents and host communities in drought‐affected areas with
limited or no livestock holdings will continue to face deficits through September and remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2). By
October, the new harvest will be available and cereal prices are likely to decline, which will improve access to food and
improve food security (Figures 2 and 3).
In South Kordofan, fighting between SAF and Sudan People’s Liberation Army‐North (SPLA‐N) since June 6, 2011 has
affected the livelihoods of about 1.4 million in the area, destroyed assets, and displaced approximately 75,000 people. The
precise number of IDPs is unknown due to restricted movement of humanitarian agencies and widespread minefields.
Famine Early Warning Systems Network
3

SUDAN Food Security Outlook July to December 2011
Recent updates indicate the number of people displaced by the conflict in South Kordofan is greater than the numbers
estimated earlier as WFP so far managed to distribute food to 110,000 affected people in South Kordofan in SAF and SPLA‐
N controlled areas using the pre‐positioned food in these areas. Many IDPs are reportedly hiding in the Nuba Mountains
and bushes. IDPs have relied heavily on assistance provided by host communities and food aid provided by WFP and GoS.
Restricted movement and minefields are major constraints facing humanitarian agencies. The Humanitarian Aid
Commission (HAC) of GoS has reported the return of some IDPs to main towns (e.g. Kadugli and Dilling). The health and
nutritional status of the displaced population is reportedly deteriorating. Families hosting the displaced are running out of
basic needs, and commercial supplies of essential goods to villages in South Kordofan have been disturbed since the
outbreak of the fighting, compounding the effects of the current lean season. If fighting continues and farmers fail to plant
crops by the end of July, there will be major negative impacts on food availability and food security after the harvest,
potentially leading to a protracted humanitarian crisis in the area. Conflict in this area will also disturb the traditional
seasonal movement of baggara cattle herders from South Sudan to South Kordofan to avoid heavy rains and pests in the
south.
About 200,000 people (including the 75,000 IDPs) in South Kordofan are currently food insecure with the majority facing
Crisis conditions (IPC Phase 3). The violence in South Kordofan is a major setback after five years of peace and stability in
the area, and will jeopardize return, integration, and development efforts in the area. The continuation of fighting in South
Kordofan state will disturb the cultivation season, and failure of the harvest could lead to a protracted emergency
humanitarian situation. Of special concern are the semi‐mechanized commercial farmers in Habila and Kurtala areas of
South Kordofan. If they failed to plant this season then the negative impact will not be limited to South Kordofan but will
extend to North and West Kordofan states, and to some parts of White Nile state as they used to supply sorghum to those
areas.
In North Kordofan State, about 150,000 – 200,000 people (20‐30 percent of poor households) in Um Rawaba, Al Nuhod,
Abu Zabad, Bara and Jabarat Al Sheikh localities will be stressed (IPC Phase 2) during the lean season due to poor crop
production in 2010 that was enough to meet only 15 – 25 percent of annual food needs. By the onset of the peak lean
season in July, most households are expected to exhaust their food stocks and become entirely dependent on market
purchases. The start of the rains will provide more labor opportunities on the farms of better‐off households, but workers
will also need time to cultivate their own farms. This is a typical coping strategy, but the starting of the season has been
negatively affected by the recent poor rains. Food security is likely to improve during the harvest time (October – December
2011) as the new harvest will be available.
In Red Sea State, food security of poor households (50 percent of the population) in Haya, Dordieb, Sinkat, Tokar and
Halayeb is likely to deteriorate during the lean season. Market purchase is the main source of food for the greater portion
of households, and poor households rely heavily on marginal income sources (e.g. firewood collection, collection and sale of
wild foods, casual labor and traditional gold mining). The onset of the rains in July is expected to generate more labor and
share cropping opportunities in the mechanized rain‐fed farms in neighboring Kassala and Gedaref states. However, the
sharp increase of food and non‐food prices due to the recent economic reform policies and inflation may reduce the
capabilities of poor households to access food from the market. Cereal prices are also expected to increase during the lean
season.
A recent Food Security assessment in the Red Sea state by WFP using the food consumption score revealed that 65 percent
of rural populations face food shortages and 15 percent of households engage in high risk coping strategies (e.g. reduction
of food consumption). A recent WFP assessment in Red Sea State using MUAC measurement of children of age 6 – 59
months old revealed that 14 percent of rural children are underweight (9 percent GAM and 5 percent SAM). An estimated
200,000–250,000 people in the Red Sea State are expected to be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) during the scenario period, as food
stocks diminish at the household level and market prices. The onset of the rains in July/August will improve pasture
availability and quality and, hence, improve milk production. However, this is not expected to mitigate the food insecurity
of the poor households because they have limited or no livestock holdings.
The incursion by the SAF into Abeyi in May 2011 has displaced 110,000 – 120,000 people who crossed the Bahr Al Arab/ Kirr
River into Warrap, Unity, and Northern Bahr el Ghazal states. The displaced lost their tukuls (huts), assets and food stocks
and currently rely on food aid, kinship support, host community support, and market purchase. However, humanitarian
operations are challenged by fuel shortages, increased militia activities and blockage of roads by heavy rains in South
Famine Early Warning Systems Network
4

SUDAN Food Security Outlook July to December 2011
Sudan. According to FAO, many of the displaced people managed to lease land from relatives or have their own farms in
South Sudan. Most of the IDPs from Abeyi are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
The GoS and the GoSS recently have reached a temporary agreement through the mediation of the African Union according
to which Ethiopian peace forces will take over the security responsibility in Abeyi and both SAF and SPLA should withdraw
to the pre‐1956 north South border. It is unlikely that IDPs will return to Abeyi without a long‐term solution to the crisis.
Currently the Messeriya cattle herders of Abeyi are grazing their animals in AL Meriem, AL Jikak, and AL Dipap areas North
of Bahr Al Arab/River Kiir, as is typical, and are expected to move northwards in July/August as the rainy season progresses
northward. They, too have been affected by the insecurity, high prices and decreased market access.
In Blue Nile State there is high tension between SAF and the SPLA‐N following the declaration of SAF to disarm all illegal
armed forces after the separation of South Sudan. There are also differences in the interpretation of the popular
consultation process stipulated in the CPA between GoS and SPLM. The food security situation in Kurmuk and Gisan
localities is very fragile due to high numbers of returnees from Ethiopia following the signature of the CPA in 2005 and
partly due to poor harvest of last season in these two areas. Currently, about 40‐50 percent of the populations in Kurmuk
and Gissan localities are Stressed (IPC Phase 2). An outbreak of conflict in Blue Nile State would have disastrous impacts as
the vast semi‐mechanized surplus production of Sudan is located here. In addition, insecurity in Blue Nile would block the
seasonal north/south movement of Lahwein, Falata, Buttana and Kenana cattle herders of central and East Sudan.
Table 1. Less likely events over the next six months that could change the above scenarios
Area Event Impact on food security outcomes
South Kordofan State
Abeyi Area
South Darfur, South
Kordofan, Blue Nile,
White Nile and Sinar
State
Darfur (North, South
and West Darfur
States)
Implementation of Addis
Ababa agreement between
GoS and SPLA-N
Durable solution to Abeyi
status
Cattle herders denied
access for grazing in South
Sudan
The remaining rebel groups
sign peace deal with GoS
Famine Early Warning Systems Network
Improved security situation could lead to return of IDPs, but it
would be too late to catch-up on the cultivation season
Allow return of Abeyi IDPs, but they will miss the ongoing
cultivation season
Endanger the livelihoods of cattle herders and increase tension
between Sudan and South Sudan
Improve the security situation allowing the return of IDPs to
their home villages.
5