Naši standardi moraju biti strožiji od međunarodnih - Cb-mn.org

december 2010 | :Bankar :
INTERVIEW WITH THE GOVERNOR OF THE CENTRAL BANK OF MONTENEGRO
MR. RADOJE ŽUGIĆ, M.Sc.
problem, the Central Bank of Montenegro is ready
to apply all available instruments in order to preserve
monetary and fi nancial stability, and we are
currently working on the Central Bank crisis management
plan.
Th e European Monetary Union is conceived as a
system that practically has no exit option. Th e costs
of leaving the Euro area, including the damage for
the Euro and the remaining Member States, would
be so high that, in my opinion, no government would
conclude that it is rational to leave the Euro area or
to exert pressure on any other Member State to do
so. It is least likely that something like that would
do the states currently being in the most diffi cult
position (like Greece and Ireland) since their debts
would remain euro denominated and their national
currencies would depreciate so severely against
the Euro that this would render the fi nancing of
debts even more diffi cult and push these countries
deeper into recession. It is highly unlikely that something
like that would do the strongest economy
such as Germany because the Deutsche Mark would
strongly appreciate against the Euro, thus making
the German export expensive and uncompetitive
and making Germany lose a good portion of the EU
market. Not to speak of the pressure for the conversion
of euros (outside the Euro area) into deutsche
marks, as the latter would be the hardest currency,
including the costs to be incurred by Germany.
In addition, potential abolishing of the Euro would
also entail huge costs for countries in the Euro
area because enormous amounts of euros would
return to the Euro area. Th e abolishing of the Euro
would also mean growing uncertainty leading to
a psychological growth of pessimism in the Euro
area, investors refraining from investing, household
spending that would shrink in such an environment,
eventually leading to the Euro area countries falling
in a crisis deeper than the recent global fi nancial
crisis. Something like this would mean the end of
the EU and I believe that everyone is aware of that.
Finally, let me remind you that at the time of Euro
introduction, the EUR/USD exchange rate was 1:1.
Not long aft erwards the U.S. Dollar appreciated against
the Euro by somewhat more than 15%, and today
the Euro is around 30% stronger than the U.S.
Dollar, thus the Euro is 50% stronger if compared
to the record U.S. Dollar minimum §
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