Merrion%20Capital%20June2011

Merrion Stockbrokers 10
Exhibit 6 – Petroceltic NAV
Cash and Farmout
Cash
ENEL further cash payment
Total cash and farmout
Isarene asset
Ain Tsila
Isarene Northeast
Isarene Northwest
Hassi Tab Tab
Total Isarene asset
Core NAV
Exploration Projects
Valuation and price target
We value Petroceltic on the sum of the parts risk basis, with cash and the
Algerian Isarene permit area assets forming its core NAV. We believe that core
NAV provides a benchmark for the company’s valuation, with upside from
exploration projects.
We set our target price 18.0p, equal to its core NAV, or 76% upside to the current
share price.
We do not include a valuation higher than its core NAV because of:
The lack of near term catalysts outside of its Algerian operations
The uncertainty regarding options for the development of the Algerian asset
and hence its monetisation. Bureaucratic delays in Algeria means the timing of
any development work is highly uncertain.
Total
MMboe % Holding
NAV
unrisked
Risk
Factor
Risked
NAV £m
US$ US$ @$1.61/£
Risked
p/sh
Unrisked
p/sh
110 100 120 74 3.2 3.2
75 50 37.5 23 1.2 2.2
195
158 97 4.4 5.4
1,043 56.75% 1,184 38 450 276 13.2 34.7
1,073
22 56.75% 26 38 10 6 0.3 0.7
2 56.75% 3 38 1 1 0.0 0.1
6 56.75% 7 38 3 2 0.1 0.2
1,218
1,413
152 463
284
13.6
35.7
620 380 18.0 41.1
Italy - Elsa 250 55.00% 825 10 83 51 2.4 24
Italy - Rovasenda 270 47.50% 770 10 77 47 2.3 23
Total Exploration
1,595
159 98 4.7 47
Total 3,008 780 478 22.7 88.1
Source: Company data and Merrion estimates