December - International Society of Certified Electronics Technicians

Post 2004-Election Market Outlook
By Wayne Peterson, Family Business Office
My main reason for providing this information is a belief that our country has gotten itself in such a difficult financial condition that
citizens and investors who are unaware are going to get trapped and pay a heavy price. We hate to see good people get hurt. For more on
our thinking on the economy and markets, please visit our website (www.familybusinessoffice.net) and read the Market Outlook posted
there. Thanks for reading and good luck to you, Wayne Peterson.
Empowered by a convincing re-election
victory, President Bush has identified a
number of priority targets for spending his
newly-earned "political capital." They
include:
1. Simplification of our hated, insane tax
system. One alternative being debated within
the administration is to scrap the current
system and replace it with either a singlerate
flat income tax, or a national sales taxwhere
only consumption is taxed. The other
alternative is to retain the progressive tax
structure but reduce tax rates even further,
while closing loopholes, cutting out special
interest tax breaks and eliminating most
deductions except for home mortgage interest
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and charitable giving. Any of these steps
would be welcomed.
2. Modifying Social Security to allow personal
investment accounts. One administrative
camp believes that individuals could, by
investing in stocks, beat the return provided
through Social Security's fixed income
investments. I am in the other camp that
believes that the great majority of individuals
would lose money in the market and
actually come out behind. The other problem
with this idea is that since the current
system is in effect a Ponzi scheme (today's
contributions are being used to pay for
today's benefits), a new source for funding
current benefits would have to be found.
Additional government borrowing has been
suggested.
3. Making the 2001/2002/2003 tax cuts permanent.
The cost of doing this is an estimated
increase in the projected federal debt of
about one-third, or $2.2 trillion.
4. Expanding Roth IRA's to allow individuals
to salt away up to $15,000 a year.
For you and me, these plans-coupled with
the President's determination to pursue
reconstruction in Iraq and Afghanistan-virtually
assure four more years of rising
deficits, a probable increase in long interest
rates, but hopefully no tax increases. With
this picture in mind, the dollar started to
plummet last week.
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P.O. Box 83021
1180 Victoria Park Ave.
Toronto, ON M4B 3N2
CANADA
Phone: (416) 749-3546
Fax: (416) 285-5525
E-mail: sales@ayssoftware.com
(Continued on page 4)
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December 2004