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ANNEX 5: HISTORIC ANALYSIS OF MEMBER STATES PAYMENT FORECASTS<br />

Table 1 gives an overview of the aggregate results of the forecasting exercise since 2001 thus<br />

showing the evolution of the forecasting performance over time.<br />

Up to 2011 the forecast error was expressed as a percentage of payment execution while from<br />

2012 onwards, following the change in methodology due to the lack of payment<br />

appropriations (see Chapter 2.5), the forecast error will be expressed as a percentage of claims<br />

submitted.<br />

Thus, in 2012 the total relative forecast error for the 2007-2013 programmes is 15%. This<br />

means that for every EUR 100 of payments claims actually submitted in 2012, the Member<br />

States had forecasted they would claim EUR 115. In absolute terms, the error was EUR 7.8<br />

billion.<br />

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