05.06.2013 Views

Quantifying Credit Risk Across Emerging Market Companies - Analec

Quantifying Credit Risk Across Emerging Market Companies - Analec

Quantifying Credit Risk Across Emerging Market Companies - Analec

SHOW MORE
SHOW LESS

Create successful ePaper yourself

Turn your PDF publications into a flip-book with our unique Google optimized e-Paper software.

CREDIT<br />

ANALYSIS<br />

EMERGING MARKETS<br />

<strong>Emerging</strong> <strong>Market</strong>s<br />

ModelViewer Research Team<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Monitor<br />

<strong>Quantifying</strong> <strong>Credit</strong> <strong>Risk</strong> <strong>Across</strong> <strong>Emerging</strong> <strong>Market</strong> <strong>Companies</strong><br />

Granular analyses of the credit risks and opportunities across the top <strong>Emerging</strong><br />

<strong>Market</strong>s companies. The financial forecasts and estimates on each company<br />

are supported by detailed financial forecasting and modeling work undertaken<br />

and maintained by a team of investment analysts organized along<br />

industry/sector groups, and as housed within the ANALEC ModelViewer<br />

platform.<br />

ANALEC ModelViewer as an application offers financial analyses interactivity<br />

to each of its subscribers to run their individual analyses on each of the companies,<br />

after “tweaking” the financial forecasts models for their near-term and<br />

long-run forecasts and estimates.<br />

Please read important disclaimers and disclosures on the back of this report.<br />

4 th January 2013<br />

®


<strong>Quantifying</strong> <strong>Credit</strong> <strong>Risk</strong> in the <strong>Emerging</strong> <strong>Market</strong>s<br />

The research team at ANALEC ModelViewer presents its first issue on the<br />

measurement and quantification of credit risk across a selection of large<br />

publicly traded emerging markets companies. It relies heavily on the<br />

detailed 5-year financial forecast models built out on each of the companies<br />

(at a consolidated financial level), with careful reference to each company’s<br />

debt principal repayment obligations, interest payments and expected<br />

capital expenditure plans over a 5-year forecast period.<br />

Our focus in this report is on a selection of large market capitalization industrial<br />

companies in the emerging markets and developed Asia space, listed out of Hong<br />

Kong, China, India, Australia, Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, Thailand and<br />

Malaysia.<br />

Industrial <strong>Companies</strong> – Gauging <strong>Credit</strong> <strong>Risk</strong><br />

In order to gauge credit risks at industrial companies (i.e., manufacturing, real<br />

estate and services companies), we have looked at detailed financial forecasts on<br />

each of these companies on a 5-year forecast horizon (produced by the ANALEC<br />

ModelViewer research team) and then look at cash flow forecasts to estimate credit<br />

risks.<br />

Figure 1 – Industrial <strong>Companies</strong> and their <strong>Credit</strong> Outlook<br />

We have analyzed the industrial companies in our coverage universe based on<br />

their 5-year projected cash generation (including the ability to tap established<br />

credit lines) versus their 5-year projected cash commitments with respect to debt<br />

principal repayments, interest payments on debt and other similar obligations.<br />

I Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


II<br />

Our Key Findings<br />

We have looked at a group of 197 large industrial companies in the emerging<br />

markets and developed Asia universe and drawn the following conclusions:<br />

- Large <strong>Emerging</strong> <strong>Market</strong>s and Developed Asia companies remain well<br />

capitalized as a group to meet its credit obligations and fund its expansion<br />

plans;<br />

- Out of the total of 197 companies; 72 companies are classified as “Cash<br />

Rich” with a combined market capitalization of US$1,417 bn; 39.3% of the<br />

total market capitalization of the group under study.<br />

- 49 companies have been classified as “Deleveraging” (over the next 5<br />

years), with a combined market capitalization of US$1,139 bn; comprising<br />

31.6% of the total market capitalization of the group under study.<br />

- Combining the “Cash Rich” companies with the “Deleveraging”<br />

companies, constitutes 121 companies with a combined market<br />

capitalization of US$2,556 bn; 71% of the total market capitalization of the<br />

group under study.<br />

- We have identified 26 companies in the “re-financing risk” category given<br />

their low 5-Year Cash Generation to Commitment ratio as well as stretched<br />

balance sheet from a net gearing perspective. The combined market<br />

capitalization of these companies amounts to US$212 bn; 5.9% of the total<br />

market capitalization of the group under study.<br />

- India and Hong Kong have the largest number of companies that are in the<br />

Cash Rich category; accounting for 39 companies out of a total of 72<br />

companies in this category.<br />

- When it comes to varying degrees of re-financing risk, India once again has<br />

the highest number of companies with a tally of 10 out of a total of 26<br />

companies in this category. <strong>Companies</strong> in this category include many of the<br />

listed airline companies as well as India oil marketing and<br />

telecommunications companies.


III<br />

Cash Rich <strong>Companies</strong><br />

For all companies that on Cash Generation/Cash Commitment are above 100%, they are<br />

expected to generate free cash flows which can either go towards de-leveraging their<br />

balance sheets or paying excess cash back to shareholders. In that context we have<br />

categorized companies as “Cash Rich” if they on a 5-Year Cash Generation/Cash<br />

Commitment ratio, are above 100% and have a “net cash” position on their balance sheet<br />

(i.e., when the gross debt on the balance sheet is lower than the cash and liquid assets on<br />

the balance sheet). Such “cash rich” companies either pay back to shareholders in the form<br />

of special distributions, or undertake share buy-backs to optimize their balance sheets in<br />

order to reduce the excess cash build-up on their balance sheet. On the other hand, such<br />

companies may seek to diversify their business interests and consequently raise their risk<br />

profiles on account of risks associated with such diversification plans.<br />

Figure 2 – Cash Rich <strong>Companies</strong><br />

Source: ModelViewer Research; forecasts as of 4 th January 2013; “nm” denotes “not meaningful”


IV<br />

Figure 2 – Cash Rich <strong>Companies</strong> (cont’d…)<br />

Source: ModelViewer Research; forecasts as of 4 th January 2013; “nm” denotes “not meaningful”<br />

It is worth noting that out of our universe of 197 industrial companies looked at in this report, across a<br />

combined market capitalization of US$3,608 bn, the category of “cash rich” companies constitutes a group<br />

of 72 companies with a combined market capitalization of US$1,417 bn. In other words, a large proportion<br />

of large <strong>Emerging</strong> <strong>Market</strong>s companies remain “cash rich “and therefore carry little risk from a credit<br />

perspective. However, diversification (or cash deployment) risk is real and more relevant for shareholders<br />

of these companies.


V<br />

<strong>Companies</strong> facing Re-financing <strong>Risk</strong>s<br />

<strong>Companies</strong> that on a 5-Year Cash Generation/Cash Commitment ratio are below 100%, in<br />

other words they face a cash shortfall to meet their cash obligations and commitments; as<br />

well as have leveraged balance sheets, we have classified them as companies facing “refinancing”<br />

risk. In such instances, such companies have to raise additional funds (either via<br />

debt or equity issuance). However, if their balance sheets are already extended (measured<br />

in terms of net gearing), such companies face varying degrees of re-financing risks and<br />

could in extreme cases face distress situations.<br />

In such instances, companies have to make tough choices. Such choices generally involve<br />

(a) restructuring of their debt and balance sheets; (b) re-finance debt, if possible; (c) scale<br />

back expansion plans; (c) undertake asset sales and/or (d) contemplate equity issuance.<br />

Figure 3 – Re-financing <strong>Risk</strong> <strong>Companies</strong><br />

Source: ModelViewer Research; forecasts as of 4 th January 2013<br />

The companies identified above as facing re-financing risks, involve a group of 26 companies out of our<br />

study group of 197 companies. In terms of proportion of market capitalization, they constitute 5.9% of the<br />

total combined market capitalization of our group of companies of US$3,608 bn.


VI<br />

De-leveraging <strong>Companies</strong><br />

We have characterized companies with de-leveraging possibilities as ones that on a 5-year<br />

projected Cash Generation/Cash Commitment ratio are above 100% and carry varying<br />

degrees of balance sheet leverage. In other words, we contemplate the free cash left over<br />

beyond the project 5-year commitments, going towards paying down debt levels and<br />

returning many of the companies to an optimal capital structure and reduced credit risk.<br />

Figure 4 – De-leveraging <strong>Companies</strong><br />

Source: ModelViewer Research; forecasts as of 4 th January 2013


VII<br />

In the “de-leveraging” category are a group of 49 companies, with a combined market<br />

capitalization of US$1,139 bn; in other words 31.6% of the total combined market<br />

capitalization of the universe of companies in our study.<br />

When you add this tally to the companies that are in the “cash rich” category, large<br />

<strong>Emerging</strong> <strong>Market</strong> companies as a group seem to be in good shape with a total of 121<br />

companies that are either cash rich or deleveraging (on a 5-year view), accounting for a<br />

total combined market capitalization of US$2,556 bn, out of a total combined market<br />

capitalization of US$3,608 bn.<br />

Rising Leverage <strong>Companies</strong><br />

We have classified all companies that are below 100% on a 5-Year Cash Generation / Cash<br />

Commitment; and from a balance sheet leverage standpoint are either net cash or low net<br />

gearing levels, as one that can fund their shortfall (between generation and commitment)<br />

with additional debt issuance without carrying any re-financing risks on their balance<br />

sheets. Such companies either end up maintaining their net gearing levels or some cases<br />

see increases in gearing levels, without causing any credit concerns or risks in the near to<br />

medium term.<br />

Figure 5 – Rising Leverage <strong>Companies</strong><br />

Source: ModelViewer Research; as of 4 th January 2013<br />

Rising leverage levels in well capitalized emerging market companies, in our group of<br />

companies analyzed, constitutes a group of 11 companies on a combined market<br />

capitalization of US$393 bn; 10.9% of the total combined market capitalization of the group<br />

of companies analyzed in this report.


VIII<br />

Cash Generation versus Cash Commitment Methodology<br />

For industrial companies – companies that are in the manufacturing, services or real estate<br />

space – we have deployed a methodology of looking at adjusted free cash flows (prefinancing)<br />

and look at the commitments over a 5-year period with respect to debt principal<br />

repayments and interest payments on debt.<br />

The adjusted free cash flows (pre-financing) denotes free cash flow available after meeting<br />

all operating costs, taxes and capital expenditure requirements of the company.<br />

We look at two metrics in our efforts to quantify the credit risk at the companies:<br />

- Cashflow Cushion; and<br />

- 5-year Cash Generation to Cash Commitment ratio<br />

Cashflow Cushion is the ratio of Free Cashflow before Debt Service (interest payments and<br />

principal repayments) and Total Cash Obligations and Commitments. In other words, to<br />

what extent a company is “covered” to meet its cash obligations and commitments on an<br />

annual basis.<br />

- Free Cashflow before Debt Service is a summation of Cash and Liquid Assets beginning<br />

of the year and Adjusted Free Cash Flow during the year.<br />

- Total Cash Obligations and Commitments comprise of Debt Principal Repayments,<br />

interest payments and other similar liabilities during the year.<br />

A Cashflow cushion ratio of below 1.0x implies shortfalls in cash flows to meet obligations,<br />

which in term implies some form of fund raising activity.<br />

5-Year Cash Generation to Cash Commitment ratio is not dissimilar to the Cashflow<br />

Cushion calculation, except that it looks at free cash generation and the debt service<br />

obligations (i.e., cash commitment) over a 5-year time period.<br />

Figure 6 – Calculation of Cash Generation to Cash Commitment Ratio<br />

*Note: The above figures and calculations are for illustrative purposes only<br />

Using the above Figure 6 we illustrate how we calculate the Cash Generation to Cash<br />

Commitment ratio for industrial companies. First stage we have our Cash and Liquid<br />

Assets balance at the beginning over the year (i.e., 2012). This number we add the


IX<br />

cumulative Adjusted Free Cash Flow generated over the period 2012-16 financial year (after<br />

accounting for capital expenditure plans; and/or growth plans). The resulting figure is<br />

termed Sum of Cash and 5-Year Cash Generation. To this figure we add any “active credit<br />

lines” that may be in place (at the time) to arrive at the “Sum of Cash, 5-Year Cash Generation,<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> lines and Adjustments”.<br />

Against the above calculated available cash flow over a 5-year period we look at the Sum of<br />

5-year Cash Commitments. The 5-year cash commitments comprise debt principal<br />

repayments, interest payments and other similar obligations (i.e., lease payments etc.). The<br />

ratio of the 5-year Generation-to-Commitment highlights the cash flow surplus or shortfall<br />

a company faces over a cumulative 5-year period. This ratio is important to help gauge<br />

risks as well as changes to expansion plans (if necessary).<br />

While the Cashflow Cushion provides an assessment of near-term creditworthiness, the 5year<br />

(Cash) Generation to Commitment ratio provides a longer term perspective on credit<br />

risk.


Contents<br />

AAC Technologies Holdings Inc. (2018 HK) ........................................................................................................................... 6<br />

ABB Ltd. (ABB IN) ..................................................................................................................................................................... 8<br />

ACC Limited (ACC IN) ............................................................................................................................................................. 10<br />

Acer Incorporated (2353 TT) ................................................................................................................................................... 12<br />

Advanced Semiconductor Engineering Inc. (2311 TT) ........................................................................................................ 14<br />

Air China Limited - H Share (753 HK) ................................................................................................................................... 16<br />

Aluminum Corp of China Ltd. - H Share (2600 HK) .............................................................................................................. 18<br />

Ambuja Cements Ltd. (ACEM IN) ........................................................................................................................................... 20<br />

Angang Steel Company Limited - H Share (347 HK) ........................................................................................................... 22<br />

AngloGold Ashanti (ANG SJ) ................................................................................................................................................. 24<br />

Anhui Conch Cement Company - H Share (914 HK) ........................................................................................................... 26<br />

Apollo Tyres Ltd. (APTY IN) ................................................................................................................................................... 28<br />

Ashok Leyland Ltd. (AL IN) .................................................................................................................................................... 30<br />

Asian Paints Ltd. (APNT IN) ................................................................................................................................................... 32<br />

ASM Pacific Technology Ltd. (522 HK) ................................................................................................................................. 34<br />

Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd. (APN SJ) ......................................................................................................................... 36<br />

ASUSTek Computer Inc. (2357 TT) ........................................................................................................................................ 38<br />

AU Optronics Corp. (2409 TT) ................................................................................................................................................ 40<br />

Bajaj Auto Ltd. (BJAUT IN) ..................................................................................................................................................... 42<br />

Beijing Enterprises Holdings Ltd. (392 HK) .......................................................................................................................... 44<br />

Belle International Holdings Limited (1880 HK) ................................................................................................................... 46<br />

Bharat Forge (BHFC IN) .......................................................................................................................................................... 48<br />

Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd. (BHEL IN) ............................................................................................................................... 50<br />

Bharat Petroleum Corp. Ltd. (BPCL IN) ................................................................................................................................ 52<br />

Bharti Airtel Ltd. (BHARTI IN) ................................................................................................................................................. 54<br />

BHP Billiton (BHP AU) ............................................................................................................................................................ 56<br />

Biocon Ltd. (BIOS IN) .............................................................................................................................................................. 58<br />

Brambles Limited (BXB AU) ................................................................................................................................................... 60<br />

Cadila Healthcare Ltd. (CDH IN) ............................................................................................................................................. 62<br />

Cairn India Limited (CAIR IN) ................................................................................................................................................. 64<br />

Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. (293 HK) .................................................................................................................................... 66<br />

Cheung Kong Infrastructure Holdings Ltd. (1038 HK) ........................................................................................................ 68<br />

China Airlines Ltd. (2610 TT) .................................................................................................................................................. 70<br />

China Coal Energy Company Limited - H Share (1898 HK) ................................................................................................ 72<br />

China Communication Construction - H Share (1800 HK) .................................................................................................. 74<br />

China Communications Services Corp Ltd (552 HK)........................................................................................................... 76<br />

China COSCO Holdings Co., Ltd. - H Share (1919 HK) ........................................................................................................ 78<br />

China Eastern Airlines Corp. Ltd. - H Share (670 HK) ......................................................................................................... 80<br />

China Merchants Holdings (Intl.) Co., Ltd. (144 HK) ............................................................................................................ 82<br />

China Mobile Ltd. (941 HK) ..................................................................................................................................................... 84<br />

China National Building Material Co., Ltd (3323 HK) ........................................................................................................... 86<br />

Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. - H Share (386 HK) ...................................................................................................... 88<br />

China Railway Construction Corp. Ltd.- H Share (1186 HK) ............................................................................................... 90<br />

China Railway Group Limited - H Share (390 HK) ................................................................................................................ 92<br />

China Resources Enterprise Ltd. (291 HK) ........................................................................................................................... 94<br />

China Shenhua Energy - H Share (1088 HK) ........................................................................................................................ 96<br />

China Southern Airlines Co., Ltd. - H Share (1055 HK).... ................................................................................................... 98<br />

China Steel Corp. (2002 TT) .................................................................................................................................................. 100<br />

China Telecom Corp., Ltd. (728 HK) .................................................................................................................................... 102<br />

China Unicom (HongKong) Ltd. (762 HK) ........................................................................................................................... 104<br />

Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd. (1929 HK) ................................................................................................................ 106<br />

Chunghwa Telecom Co Ltd. (2412 TT) ................................................................................................................................ 108<br />

Cipla Ltd. (CIPLA IN) ............................................................................................................................................................. 110<br />

CLP Holdings Ltd. (2 HK) ...................................................................................................................................................... 112<br />

CNOOC Ltd. (883 HK) ............................................................................................................................................................ 114<br />

Coal India Limited (COAL IN) ............................................................................................................................................... 116<br />

Comba Telecom Systems Holdings Limited (2342 HK) ..................................................................................................... 118<br />

Compal Electronics, Inc. (2324 TT) ...................................................................................................................................... 120<br />

Computershare Limited (CPU AU) ....................................................................................................................................... 122<br />

COSCO Pacific Ltd. (1199 HK) ............................................................................................................................................. 124<br />

CSL Limited (CSL AU) ........................................................................................................................................................... 126<br />

CSR Corporation Limited - H Share (1766 HK).... ............................................................................................................... 128<br />

Daewoo Engineering & Construction (047040 KS) ............................................................................................................ 130<br />

Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering (042660 KS) ................................................................................................ 132<br />

Dairy Farm International Holdings Ltd. (DFI SP) ................................................................................................................ 134<br />

Datang International Power – H Share (991 HK) ................................................................................................................ 136<br />

Delta Electronics Inc. (2308 TT) ........................................................................................................................................... 138<br />

Digi.Com Berhad (DIGI MK) .................................................................................................................................................. 140<br />

Digital China Holdings Ltd (861 HK) .................................................................................................................................... 142<br />

Dongfeng Motor Group Co., Ltd. (489 HK) .......................................................................................................................... 144<br />

Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Ltd. (DRRD IN) ............................................................................................................................ 146<br />

Engineers India Limited (ENGR IN) ..................................................................................................................................... 148<br />

Esprit Holdings Ltd. (330 HK) ............................................................................................................................................... 150<br />

Exide Industries Ltd. (EXID IN) ............................................................................................................................................. 152<br />

Far EasTone Telecommunications Co., Ltd. (4904 TT) ..................................................................................................... 154<br />

Financial Technologies India Ltd (FTECH IN) .................................................................................................................... 156<br />

Fortescue Metals Group (FMG AU)...................................................................................................................................... 158<br />

Foxconn International Holdings Ltd. (2038 HK) ................................................................................................................. 160<br />

GAIL (India) Limited (GAIL IN) .............................................................................................................................................. 162<br />

Gold Fields Limited (GFI SJ) ................................................................................................................................................ 164<br />

GOME Electrical Appliances Holdings Ltd. (493 HK) ........................................................................................................ 166<br />

Grasim Industries Limited (GRASIM IN) ............................................................................................................................. 168<br />

Great Wall Motor Company Limited - H Share (2333 HK) .................................................................................................. 170<br />

GS Engineering & Construction Corp (006360 KS) ........................................................................................................... 172<br />

HCL Technologies Ltd. (HCLT IN)........................................................................................................................................ 174<br />

Hengan International Group Co., Ltd. (1044 HK) ................................................................................................................ 176<br />

Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Hero MotoCorp Limited (HMCL IN) ...................................................................................................................................... 178<br />

Hindalco Industries Limited (HNDL IN) ............................................................................................................................... 180<br />

Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd. (HPCL IN) ............................................................................................................. 182<br />

Hindustan Zinc Ltd. (HZ IN) .................................................................................................................................................. 184<br />

Hong Kong and China Gas Company Limited (3 HK) ........................................................................................................ 186<br />

HTC Corporation (2498 TT) ................................................................................................................................................... 188<br />

Hyundai Motor Company (005380 KS) ................................................................................................................................ 190<br />

Idea Cellular Ltd. (IDEA IN) ................................................................................................................................................... 192<br />

Impala Platinum Holdings Limited (IMP SJ) ....................................................................................................................... 194<br />

Infosys Ltd. (INFO IN) ............................................................................................................................................................ 196<br />

Inotera Memories, Inc (3474 TT) ........................................................................................................................................... 198<br />

Jardine Cycle & Carriage Limited (JCNC SP) ..................................................................................................................... 200<br />

Jardine Matheson Holdings Limited (JM SP) ..................................................................................................................... 202<br />

Jardine Strategic Holdings Ltd (JS SP) .............................................................................................................................. 204<br />

JSW Steel Ltd. (JSTL IN) ....................................................................................................................................................... 206<br />

Kangwon Land, Inc. (035250 KS) ......................................................................................................................................... 208<br />

Keppel Corporation Limited (KEP SP) ................................................................................................................................ 210<br />

Kia Motors Corporation (000270 KS) ................................................................................................................................... 212<br />

Korea Electric Power Corporation (015760 KS) ................................................................................................................. 214<br />

Kumba Iron Ore Limited (KIO SJ) ........................................................................................................................................ 216<br />

Larsen & Toubro Ltd. (LT IN) ................................................................................................................................................ 218<br />

Lenovo Group Ltd. (992 HK) ................................................................................................................................................. 220<br />

LG Display Co., Ltd. (034220 KS) ......................................................................................................................................... 222<br />

Lupin Ltd. (LPC IN) ................................................................................................................................................................ 224<br />

M1 Ltd. (M1 SP) ...................................................................................................................................................................... 226<br />

Malaysian Airline System Berhad (MAS MK) ...................................................................................................................... 228<br />

Maroc Telecom (IAM MC) ...................................................................................................................................................... 230<br />

Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. (MSIL IN) ....................................................................................................................................... 232<br />

MediaTek Inc. (2454 TT) ........................................................................................................................................................ 234<br />

Motherson Sumi Systems Ltd. (MSS IN) ............................................................................................................................. 236<br />

Mphasis Limited (MPHL IN) .................................................................................................................................................. 238<br />

MTN Group Limited (MTN SJ) .............................................................................................................................................. 240<br />

Naspers Limited (NPN SJ) .................................................................................................................................................... 242<br />

Neptune Orient Lines Ltd. (NOL SP) ................................................................................................................................... 244<br />

Newcrest Mining Limited (NCM AU) .................................................................................................................................... 246<br />

Noble Group Ltd. (NOBL SP) ................................................................................................................................................ 248<br />

Novatek Microelectronics Corp., Ltd. (3034 TT) ................................................................................................................. 250<br />

NTPC Ltd. (NTPC IN) ............................................................................................................................................................. 252<br />

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC IN) .......................................................................................................................... 254<br />

Oil Search Ltd. (OSH AU) ..................................................................................................................................................... 256<br />

Parkson Retail Group Limited (3368 HK) ............................................................................................................................ 258<br />

PCCW Ltd. (8 HK) .................................................................................................................................................................. 260<br />

Pegatron Corporation (4938 TT) .......................................................................................................................................... 262<br />

PetroChina Company Limited. - H Share (857 HK) ............................................................................................................ 264<br />

POSCO (005490 KS) .............................................................................................................................................................. 266<br />

Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Power Assets Holdings Ltd. (6 HK) ..................................................................................................................................... 268<br />

Prada SpA (1913 HK) ............................................................................................................................................................. 270<br />

PT United Tractors Tbk (UNTR IJ) ....................................................................................................................................... 272<br />

PTT Exploration & Production Public Co., Ltd. (PTTEP TB) ............................................................................................. 274<br />

Qantas Airways Limited (QAN AU) ...................................................................................................................................... 276<br />

Quanta Computer Inc (2382 TT) ........................................................................................................................................... 278<br />

Ranbaxy Laboratories Limited (RBXY IN) ........................................................................................................................... 280<br />

Reliance Communications Limited (RCOM IN) .................................................................................................................. 282<br />

Rio Tinto (RIO AU) ................................................................................................................................................................. 284<br />

Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. (005930 KS) ........................................................................................................................ 286<br />

Santos Ltd. (STO AU) ........................................................................................................................................................... 288<br />

Sembcorp Industries Ltd (SCI SP) ....................................................................................................................................... 290<br />

Sembcorp Marine Ltd (SMM SP) .......................................................................................................................................... 292<br />

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. (981 HK) ........................................................................................... 294<br />

Shanghai Electric Group Co., Ltd. – H Share (2727 HK) ................................................................................................... 296<br />

Shoprite Holdings Limited (SHP SJ) ................................................................................................................................... 298<br />

Siam Cement Limited (SCC TB) ........................................................................................................................................... 300<br />

Siemens India Ltd. (SIEM IN) ................................................................................................................................................ 302<br />

Siliconware Precision Industries (2325 TT) ........................................................................................................................ 304<br />

Singapore Airlines Ltd. (SIA SP) .......................................................................................................................................... 306<br />

Singapore Post Ltd. (SPOST SP) ......................................................................................................................................... 308<br />

Singapore Telecommunications Limited (ST SP) .............................................................................................................. 310<br />

Sinopharm Group Co. Ltd. (1099 HK) .................................................................................................................................. 312<br />

Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Ltd. (3808 HK) .................................................................................................................................. 314<br />

SK Hynix Inc. (000660 KS) .................................................................................................................................................... 316<br />

SK Telecom Co., Ltd. (017670 KS) ....................................................................................................................................... 318<br />

Starhub Ltd. (STH SP) ........................................................................................................................................................... 320<br />

STATS ChipPAC Ltd. (STAT SP) .......................................................................................................................................... 322<br />

Steel Authority of India Ltd. (SAIL IN) ................................................................................................................................. 324<br />

Steinhoff International Holdings Ltd. (SHF SJ) .................................................................................................................. 326<br />

Sterlite Industries India Ltd. (STLT IN) ................................................................................................................................ 328<br />

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. (SUNP IN) .................................................................................................................. 330<br />

Taiwan Mobile Co., Ltd. (3045 TT)........................................................................................................................................ 332<br />

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (2330 TT) .............................................................................................................. 334<br />

Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. (TCS IN) ............................................................................................................................ 336<br />

Tata Steel Ltd. (TATA IN) ...................................................................................................................................................... 338<br />

Tech Mahindra Limited (TECHM IN) .................................................................................................................................... 340<br />

Telstra Corporation Ltd. (TLS AU) ....................................................................................................................................... 342<br />

Tenaga Nasional Bhd (TNB MK) .......................................................................................................................................... 344<br />

Tencent Holdings Ltd. (700 HK) ........................................................................................................................................... 346<br />

Total Access Communication Limited (DTAC SP) ............................................................................................................. 348<br />

TPV Technology Limited (903 HK) ....................................................................................................................................... 350<br />

TravelSky Technology Limited (696 HK) ............................................................................................................................. 352<br />

UltraTech Cement Limited (UTCEM IN) ............................................................................................................................... 354<br />

United Microelectronics (2303 TT) ....................................................................................................................................... 356<br />

Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Venture Corporation Limited (VMS SP) .............................................................................................................................. 358<br />

Vodacom Group Limited (VOD SJ) ...................................................................................................................................... 360<br />

VTech Holdings Ltd. (303 HK) .............................................................................................................................................. 362<br />

Wesfarmers Limited (WES AU) ............................................................................................................................................ 364<br />

Wilmar International Limited (WIL SP) ................................................................................................................................ 366<br />

Wipro Ltd. (WPRO IN) ........................................................................................................................................................... 368<br />

Wistron Corp. (3231 TT) ........................................................................................................................................................ 370<br />

Woodside Petroleum Ltd. (WPL AU) ................................................................................................................................... 372<br />

Woolworths Ltd. (WOW AU) ................................................................................................................................................. 374<br />

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings) Ltd. (YZJ SP) ........................................................................................................... 376<br />

Yanzhou Coal Mining Company - H Share (1171 HK) ........................................................................................................ 378<br />

YTL Corporation Bhd (YTL MK) ........................................................................................................................................... 380<br />

Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd. - H Share (2899 HK)............................................................................................................... 382<br />

ZTE Corporation - H Share (763 HK) ................................................................................................................................... 384<br />

Cheung Kong (Holdings) Limited (1 HK) ............................................................................................................................ 386<br />

China Overseas Land and Investment Ltd. (688 HK) ......................................................................................................... 388<br />

Hang Lung Properties Limited (101 HK) ............................................................................................................................. 390<br />

Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK) ........................................................................................................................................ 392<br />

Swire Pacific Ltd (19 HK) ...................................................................................................................................................... 394<br />

Wharf Holdings Ltd. (4 HK) ................................................................................................................................................... 396<br />

Wheelock and Company Ltd. (20 HK) ................................................................................................................................. 398<br />

Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


AAC Technologies Holdings Inc. (2018 HK)<br />

Sector: Information Technology Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Technology Hardware & Equipment Debt Service Cover (x) 1.3x<br />

Country: Hong Kong<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 16.6%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.0x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

AAC Technologies Holdings Inc. is one of the leading manufacturers of miniature acoustic components.<br />

Major products include speakers, receivers, mulit function devices, microphones, transducers, vibrator<br />

motors and headsets, which are primarily used for handsets, games consoles and other electronic<br />

devices. Its major clients include Nokia, Motorola, HTC, Research in Motion, Apple etc.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (RMB m) 1,763 1,375 1,270 1,501 2,620<br />

Gross Debt (RMB m) 470 891 1,004 602 441<br />

Interest Expense (RMB m) (3) (6) (14) (12) (8)<br />

EBIT (RMB m) 1,062 1,142 1,865 2,541 2,986<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 11.3% 18.5% 16.6% 7.8% 4.6%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 217.3% 151.9% 147.6% 186.9% 248.3%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.3x 0.5x 0.4x 0.3x 0.1x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 2.8x 0.7x 1.3x 2.8x 4.4x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 324.7x 207.1x 131.2x 211.0x 382.0x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (RMB m) 3,349 4,060 6,161 8,144 9,494<br />

% Change (YoY) 52.0% 21.2% 51.8% 32.2% 16.6%<br />

EBITDA (RMB m) 1,259 1,401 2,196 2,963 3,495<br />

% of Sales 37.6% 34.5% 35.6% 36.4% 36.8%<br />

Net Income (RMB m) 987 1,036 1,684 2,225 2,552<br />

% of Sales 29.5% 25.5% 27.3% 27.3% 26.9%<br />

Free Cash Flow (RMB m) 174 (280) 207 1,164 1,919<br />

% of Sales 5.2% (6.9%) 3.4% 14.3% 20.2%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 1,746 1,763 1,375 1,270 1,501<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 174 (280) 207 1,164 1,919<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 1,920 1,482 1,582 2,434 3,420<br />

Principal Repayments 398 1,838 1,507 903 661<br />

Interest Payments 3 6 14 12 8<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 401 1,843 1,521 915 669<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 4.8x 0.8x 1.0x 2.7x 5.1x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In RMB m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 1,375 32.7%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 8,208 195.1%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 9,583 227.8%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 9,583 227.8%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 4,206 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

6 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4.9%<br />

95.1%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(RMB m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 17,357 26,753 26,881<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 891 1,004 602<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

6.0x<br />

3.6%<br />

96.4%<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

2.2%<br />

97.8%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

3.0x<br />

350.0x<br />

2.5x<br />

300.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

250.0x<br />

200.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

150.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

100.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

50.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

5.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

35<br />

30<br />

25<br />

20<br />

4.8x<br />

0.8x<br />

1.0x<br />

2.7x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

15<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

AAC Technologies Holdings Inc.<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (RMB m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 3,349 4,060 6,161 8,144 9,494<br />

Operating Expenses (2,090) (2,658) (3,966) (5,182) (5,999)<br />

EBITDA 1,259 1,401 2,196 2,963 3,495<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (197) (259) (331) (421) (508)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 1,062 1,142 1,865 2,541 2,986<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 20 22 7 10 25<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 16 (4) (10) 8 9<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 1 (19) 1 43 52<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 1,099 1,142 1,896 2,602 3,072<br />

Taxes on Profit (112) (109) (214) (376) (518)<br />

Minority Interests (1) 3 2 (2) (3)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 987 1,036 1,684 2,225 2,552<br />

Balance Sheet (RMB m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 1,752 2,697 3,560 4,318 4,709<br />

Long-term Investments 0 3 3 3 3<br />

Associates 104 182 216 259 311<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 48 174 203 223 222<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 2,181 3,289 4,191 5,012 5,454<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 1,640 2,050 3,047 3,406 3,845<br />

Total Current Assets 3,402 3,425 4,317 4,907 6,465<br />

Total Assets 5,584 6,714 8,508 9,919 11,919<br />

Shareholders' Equity 4,175 4,750 6,000 7,684 9,570<br />

Total Equity 4,176 4,811 6,060 7,746 9,635<br />

Long Term Debt 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 0 16 16 16 16<br />

Total Current Liabilities 1,408 1,887 2,432 2,157 2,269<br />

Total Liabilities 1,408 1,903 2,448 2,173 2,284<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 5,584 6,714 8,508 9,919 11,919<br />

Cash Flow Statement (RMB m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 1,099 1,142 1,896 2,602 3,072<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 197 259 331 421 508<br />

Tax Paid (93) (73) (214) (376) (518)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (316) (403) (569) (232) (169)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 877 945 1,407 2,364 2,819<br />

Capital Expenditure (703) (1,226) (1,200) (1,200) (900)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (102) (135) 2 1 1<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (833) (1,319) (1,177) (1,177) (866)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 279 427 113 (403) (161)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (317) (442) (433) (541) (665)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (42) 21 (334) (956) (834)<br />

Change in Cash 3 (352) (105) 231 1,119<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 37.6% 34.5% 35.6% 36.4% 36.8%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 31.7% 28.1% 30.3% 31.2% 31.5%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 29.5% 25.5% 27.3% 27.3% 26.9%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 25.6% 23.2% 31.3% 32.5% 29.6%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 22.1% 19.0% 24.8% 27.8% 27.7%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 40.4% 29.8% 33.9% 35.7% 36.1%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 11.3% 18.5% 16.6% 7.8% 4.6%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 127.6% 137.8% 141.6% 134.7% 126.6%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 2.8x 0.7x 1.3x 2.8x 4.4x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 324.7x 207.1x 131.2x 211.0x 382.0x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 123.2% 72.8% 52.2% 69.6% 115.5%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 241.7% 181.5% 177.5% 227.5% 285.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 217.3% 151.9% 147.6% 186.9% 248.3%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

7 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


ABB Ltd. (ABB IN)<br />

Sector: Industrials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Capital Goods<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.2x<br />

Country: India<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 0.0%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.6x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

ABB Limited, India (ABB) is a subsidiary (75% stake) of Switzerland-based ABB Group, a global provider<br />

of power transmission and distribution products and automation technology. The Company offers a wide<br />

array of products that range from light switches to robots for painting cars or packing foods, and from<br />

huge electrical transformers to control systems that manage entire power networks and factories.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Rs m) 5,871 2,644 5,971 8,052 10,692<br />

Gross Debt (Rs m) 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Interest Expense (Rs m) (174) (307) (360) (330) (300)<br />

EBIT (Rs m) 321 2,035 2,110 3,495 4,726<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 126.3% 107.6% 108.1% 111.6% 116.5%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) - - - - -<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.6x 0.0x 0.2x 0.3x 0.4x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 1.8x 6.6x 5.9x 10.6x 15.8x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (Rs m) 62,871 73,703 75,591 86,542 93,588<br />

% Change (YoY) 0.8% 17.2% 2.6% 14.5% 8.1%<br />

EBITDA (Rs m) 838 2,831 3,198 4,674 5,987<br />

% of Sales 1.3% 3.8% 4.2% 5.4% 6.4%<br />

Net Income (Rs m) 632 1,845 1,697 2,724 3,579<br />

% of Sales 1.0% 2.5% 2.2% 3.1% 3.8%<br />

Free Cash Flow (Rs m) 1,162 (370) 4,271 2,403 2,977<br />

% of Sales 1.8% (0.5%) 5.7% 2.8% 3.2%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 5,241 5,776 2,545 5,873 7,953<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 1,162 (370) 4,271 2,403 2,977<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 6,404 5,406 6,816 8,276 10,930<br />

Principal Repayments 850 57,671 12,000 11,000 10,000<br />

Interest Payments 174 307 360 330 300<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 1,024 57,978 12,360 11,330 10,300<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 6.3x 0.1x 0.6x 0.7x 1.1x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In Rs m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 2,545 4.7%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 20,166 36.9%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 22,711 41.6%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 22,711 41.6%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 54,590 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

8 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

100.0% 100.0% 100.0%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity<br />

(Rs m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 123,606 148,495 149,035<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 0 0 0<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

0.6x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

0.5x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.3x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.1x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

7.0x<br />

6.3x<br />

6.0x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.1x<br />

0.6x 0.7x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Share Price (Rs)<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

12.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

5.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

1089<br />

989<br />

889<br />

789<br />

689<br />

589<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

489<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

ABB Ltd.<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (Rs m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 62,871 73,703 75,591 86,542 93,588<br />

Operating Expenses (62,034) (70,872) (72,393) (81,868) (87,600)<br />

EBITDA 838 2,831 3,198 4,674 5,987<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (517) (795) (1,088) (1,179) (1,261)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 321 2,035 2,110 3,495 4,726<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (41) (145) (236) (151) (73)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 722 787 889 963 969<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 1,002 2,677 2,689 4,225 5,534<br />

Taxes on Profit (370) (832) (992) (1,501) (1,956)<br />

Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 632 1,845 1,697 2,724 3,579<br />

Balance Sheet (Rs m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 7,366 10,302 11,079 11,612 12,022<br />

Long-term Investments 168 507 507 507 507<br />

Associates 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 295 1,382 1,217 1,041 856<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 8,452 13,254 13,661 13,965 14,176<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 43,391 46,957 47,002 50,800 54,157<br />

Total Current Assets 49,262 49,600 52,973 58,852 64,849<br />

Total Assets 57,714 62,855 66,634 72,816 79,025<br />

Shareholders' Equity 24,237 25,345 26,838 29,263 32,483<br />

Total Equity 24,237 25,345 26,838 29,263 32,483<br />

Long Term Debt 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Current Liabilities 33,477 37,509 39,795 43,553 46,542<br />

Total Liabilities 33,477 37,509 39,795 43,553 46,542<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 57,714 62,855 66,634 72,816 79,025<br />

Cash Flow Statement (Rs m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 1,002 2,677 2,689 4,225 5,534<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 517 795 1,088 1,179 1,261<br />

Tax Paid (582) (643) (992) (1,501) (1,956)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 785 (1,788) 2,777 (133) (425)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 2,207 1,181 5,871 4,003 4,577<br />

Capital Expenditure (1,044) (1,551) (1,600) (1,600) (1,600)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 4 (2,020) 32 35 38<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (992) (3,612) (1,445) (1,389) (1,337)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (495) (493) (739) (204) (300)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (669) (799) (1,099) (534) (600)<br />

Change in Cash 546 (3,230) 3,327 2,081 2,640<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 1.3% 3.8% 4.2% 5.4% 6.4%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 0.5% 2.8% 2.8% 4.0% 5.1%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 1.0% 2.5% 2.2% 3.1% 3.8%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 2.6% 7.4% 6.5% 9.7% 11.6%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 0.8% 3.6% 3.5% 5.3% 6.5%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 1.1% 6.9% 6.3% 11.0% 14.6%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 233.7% 243.2% 248.1% 248.6% 245.9%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.6x 0.0x 0.2x 0.3x 0.4x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 1.8x 6.6x 5.9x 10.6x 15.8x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 17.5% 7.0% 15.0% 18.5% 23.0%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 147.2% 132.2% 133.1% 135.1% 139.3%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 126.3% 107.6% 108.1% 111.6% 116.5%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

9 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


ACC Limited (ACC IN)<br />

Sector: Materials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Materials<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 25.3x<br />

Country: India<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 6.5%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 36.8x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

ACC Ltd is India’s second largest cement producer that was established in 1969. Over the years, the<br />

company expanded its capacities and established a pan-India presence. The company's operations<br />

predominantly relate to the manufacture and sale of cement which accounted for close to 92.7% of the<br />

company’s total revenue at the end of 2011.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Rs m) 9,856 16,599 36,687 38,857 57,187<br />

Gross Debt (Rs m) 5,240 5,107 5,107 3,107 107<br />

Interest Expense (Rs m) (793) (728) (1,029) (996) (805)<br />

EBIT (Rs m) 13,755 14,112 20,526 20,124 24,927<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 8.3% 7.3% 6.5% 3.5% 0.1%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 47.5% 67.4% 104.9% 115.8% 125.9%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.3x 0.3x 0.2x 0.2x 0.1x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 10.4x 21.8x 25.3x 6.7x 6.0x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 17.3x 19.4x 19.9x 20.2x 31.0x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (Rs m) 82,606 100,123 117,276 130,432 146,255<br />

% Change (YoY) (2.6%) 21.2% 17.1% 11.2% 12.1%<br />

EBITDA (Rs m) 18,032 19,212 25,996 25,835 30,899<br />

% of Sales 21.8% 19.2% 22.2% 19.8% 21.1%<br />

Net Income (Rs m) 10,775 13,008 14,234 15,695 19,346<br />

% of Sales 13.0% 13.0% 12.1% 12.0% 13.2%<br />

Free Cash Flow (Rs m) 10,834 10,980 21,242 6,614 25,138<br />

% of Sales 13.1% 11.0% 18.1% 5.1% 17.2%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 7,544 9,856 16,599 36,687 38,857<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 10,834 10,980 21,242 6,614 25,138<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 18,379 20,835 37,841 43,301 63,996<br />

Principal Repayments 720 132 0 2,000 3,000<br />

Interest Payments 793 728 1,029 996 805<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 1,512 860 1,029 2,996 3,805<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 12.2x 24.2x 36.8x 14.5x 16.8x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In Rs m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 16,599 176.4%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 93,139 989.9%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 109,738 1,166.4%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 109,738 1,166.4%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 9,409 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(Rs m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 213,884 269,439 268,931<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 5,107 5,107 3,107<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

40.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EH993132 Corp At Maturity Senior Secured Rs 3,000.0 3,000.0 100.00 01-Oct-2009 07-Oct-2014 8.45% 1<br />

EH693020 Corp At Maturity Senior Secured Rs 2,000.0 2,000.0 100.00 10-Dec-2008 10-Dec-2013 11.30% 1<br />

10 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

2.3%<br />

97.7%<br />

1.9%<br />

98.1%<br />

1.1%<br />

98.9%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

30.0x<br />

20.5x<br />

20.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

19.5x<br />

20.0x<br />

19.0x<br />

18.5x<br />

15.0x<br />

18.0x<br />

17.5x<br />

10.0x<br />

17.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

16.5x<br />

16.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

15.5x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (Rs)<br />

35.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

1735<br />

1535<br />

1335<br />

1135<br />

12.2x<br />

24.2x<br />

36.8x<br />

14.5x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

935<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

ACC Limited


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (Rs m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 82,606 100,123 117,276 130,432 146,255<br />

Operating Expenses (67,183) (83,162) (93,519) (107,178) (118,803)<br />

EBITDA 18,032 19,212 25,996 25,835 30,899<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (4,277) (5,100) (5,470) (5,711) (5,972)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 13,755 14,112 20,526 20,124 24,927<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (109) 273 1,056 1,593 2,344<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 904 779 465 345 240<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 14,154 15,053 18,694 22,062 27,511<br />

Taxes on Profit (3,414) (2,155) (4,556) (6,501) (8,354)<br />

Minority Interests 0 0 (1) (1) (1)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 35 110 97 135 189<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 10,775 13,008 14,234 15,695 19,346<br />

Balance Sheet (Rs m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 52,295 63,586 62,578 61,317 60,401<br />

Long-term Investments 14,069 12,931 10,274 10,401 11,801<br />

Associates 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 771 479 518 564 619<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 82,783 81,406 76,736 75,630 76,561<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 17,775 20,162 21,919 26,917 32,520<br />

Total Current Assets 27,630 36,761 58,606 65,775 89,706<br />

Total Assets 110,413 118,167 135,342 141,404 166,267<br />

Shareholders' Equity 62,807 69,791 79,042 89,245 101,819<br />

Total Equity 62,832 69,815 79,068 89,271 101,846<br />

Long Term Debt 5,240 5,107 5,107 3,107 107<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 8,908 10,346 10,346 8,346 5,346<br />

Total Current Liabilities 38,674 38,006 45,928 43,788 59,076<br />

Total Liabilities 47,582 48,352 56,274 52,134 64,421<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 110,413 118,167 135,342 141,404 166,267<br />

Cash Flow Statement (Rs m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 14,154 15,053 18,694 22,062 27,511<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 4,277 5,100 5,470 5,711 5,972<br />

Tax Paid (762) (4,166) (3,781) (5,396) (6,934)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 1,024 704 7,984 (8,170) 7,971<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 19,255 15,820 25,499 11,920 31,504<br />

Capital Expenditure (8,421) (4,841) (4,257) (5,306) (6,366)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (356) 269 5,269 2,517 1,522<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (7,848) (2,644) 2,874 (201) (1,670)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (619) (132) 0 (2,000) (3,000)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 1 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (5,002) (6,825) (6,037) (5,090) (5,946)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (6,413) (7,685) (7,066) (8,087) (9,751)<br />

Change in Cash 4,994 5,492 21,306 3,632 20,084<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 21.8% 19.2% 22.2% 19.8% 21.1%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 16.7% 14.1% 17.5% 15.4% 17.0%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 13.0% 13.0% 12.1% 12.0% 13.2%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 17.7% 19.6% 19.1% 18.7% 20.3%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 13.5% 13.4% 17.8% 16.4% 18.3%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 21.7% 24.6% 33.4% 31.3% 40.1%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 8.3% 7.3% 6.5% 3.5% 0.1%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 173.3% 172.4% 170.3% 164.4% 161.0%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 10.4x 21.8x 25.3x 6.7x 6.0x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 17.3x 19.4x 19.9x 20.2x 31.0x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 25.5% 43.7% 79.9% 88.7% 96.8%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 71.4% 96.7% 127.6% 150.2% 151.9%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 47.5% 67.4% 104.9% 115.8% 125.9%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

11 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Acer Incorporated (2353 TT)<br />

Sector: Information Technology Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Technology Hardware & Equipment Debt Service Cover (x) 5.4x<br />

Country: Taiwan<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 31.0%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 99.0x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Acer was incorporated in Taiwan in 1976. The Company through its subsidiaries manufactures and sells<br />

Desktops, Notebooks, LCD Monitors and more recently Smartphones & Tablet PCs. Globally, Acer ranks<br />

No.4 among global PC vendors with a market share of 11.2% during 2011, according to Gartner. In the<br />

notebook market, Acer is the 2nd biggest player in terms of shipments with a market share of 14.3%<br />

during 2011.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (NT$ m) 68,745 58,537 67,267 76,387 76,349<br />

Gross Debt (NT$ m) 27,077 23,546 23,697 23,847 22,173<br />

Interest Expense (NT$ m) (861) (571) (664) (664) (600)<br />

EBIT (NT$ m) 18,204 (6,396) 1,288 5,287 8,680<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 28.8% 31.1% 31.0% 29.7% 26.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 113.5% 106.6% 114.9% 112.7% 112.9%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 1.0x - 6.6x 3.3x 2.2x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 22.5x - 5.4x 10.8x 3.4x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 21.1x - 1.9x 8.0x 14.5x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (NT$ m) 629,059 475,342 436,775 476,343 510,566<br />

% Change (YoY) 9.6% (24.4%) (8.1%) 9.1% 7.2%<br />

EBITDA (NT$ m) 20,800 (3,526) 3,587 7,190 10,332<br />

% of Sales 3.3% (0.7%) 0.8% 1.5% 2.0%<br />

Net Income (NT$ m) 15,118 (6,602) 646 3,887 6,539<br />

% of Sales 2.4% (1.4%) 0.1% 0.8% 1.3%<br />

Free Cash Flow (NT$ m) 5,913 4,819 7,174 9,019 3,066<br />

% of Sales 0.9% 1.0% 1.6% 1.9% 0.6%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 53,997 68,745 58,537 67,267 76,387<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 5,913 4,819 7,174 9,019 3,066<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 59,910 73,564 65,711 76,286 79,453<br />

Principal Repayments 50 13,494 0 0 1,825<br />

Interest Payments 861 571 664 664 600<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 911 14,064 664 664 2,424<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 65.8x 5.2x 99.0x 114.9x 32.8x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In NT$ m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 58,537 237.6%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 41,014 166.5%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 99,551 404.1%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 40,663 165.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 140,214 569.1%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 24,637 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(NT$ m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 93,165 66,888 66,622<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 23,546 23,697 23,847<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

25.0x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

140.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

5.2x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EI347077 Corp Covertible/Puttable Unsecured US$ 300.0 300.0 100.00 10-Aug-2010 10-Aug-2015 N.A. N.A.<br />

EI347089 Corp Covertible/Puttable Unsecured US$ 200.0 200.0 100.00 10-Aug-2010 10-Aug-2017 N.A. N.A.<br />

12 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (NT$)<br />

120.0x<br />

100.0x<br />

20.2%<br />

79.8%<br />

26.2% 26.4%<br />

73.8% 73.6%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

20.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

80.0x<br />

60.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

65.8x<br />

99.0x<br />

114.9x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

54<br />

49<br />

44<br />

39<br />

34<br />

29<br />

24<br />

19<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Acer Incorporated


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (NT$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 629,059 475,342 436,775 476,343 510,566<br />

Operating Expenses (608,259) (478,868) (433,188) (469,153) (500,234)<br />

EBITDA 20,800 (3,526) 3,587 7,190 10,332<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (2,596) (2,871) (2,299) (1,903) (1,652)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 18,204 (6,396) 1,288 5,287 8,680<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (553) (121) (164) (93) 8<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 1,598 346 (103) (150) (150)<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 376 (5) 62 60 64<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 19,329 (7,424) 1,739 5,104 8,601<br />

Taxes on Profit (4,211) 822 (1,096) (1,218) (2,062)<br />

Minority Interests 0 0 3 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 15,118 (6,602) 646 3,887 6,539<br />

Balance Sheet (NT$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 6,889 6,328 5,623 5,323 5,014<br />

Long-term Investments 3,998 1,933 1,702 1,517 1,368<br />

Associates 2,236 1,862 1,808 1,943 2,070<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 36,393 35,351 34,057 33,115 32,429<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 54,738 52,578 50,275 48,965 47,930<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 157,016 137,192 117,974 129,998 143,448<br />

Total Current Assets 225,761 195,730 185,240 206,386 219,797<br />

Total Assets 280,499 248,308 235,515 255,350 267,727<br />

Shareholders' Equity 93,750 75,749 76,556 80,251 85,251<br />

Total Equity 94,108 75,752 76,561 80,256 85,255<br />

Long Term Debt 19,326 23,188 23,339 21,664 18,166<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 23,831 26,516 26,667 24,993 21,494<br />

Total Current Liabilities 162,559 146,040 132,288 150,102 160,978<br />

Total Liabilities 186,390 172,556 158,954 175,095 182,472<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 280,499 248,308 235,515 255,350 267,727<br />

Cash Flow Statement (NT$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 19,329 (7,424) 1,739 5,104 8,601<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 2,596 2,871 2,299 1,903 1,652<br />

Tax Paid (5,794) (2,338) (1,096) (1,218) (2,062)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (4,347) 13,074 5,467 3,965 (4,399)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 13,238 6,049 8,174 10,019 4,066<br />

Capital Expenditure (7,325) (1,229) (1,000) (1,000) (1,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 4,929 1,148 1,551 293 259<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (2,632) (1,247) 551 (707) (741)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 16,919 (4,492) 0 0 (1,825)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 206 (2,671) 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (8,218) (9,538) 0 (192) (1,539)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 8,826 (16,709) 5 (192) (3,364)<br />

Change in Cash 19,431 (11,908) 8,729 9,121 (39)<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 3.3% (0.7%) 0.8% 1.5% 2.0%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 2.9% (1.3%) 0.3% 1.1% 1.7%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 2.4% (1.4%) 0.1% 0.8% 1.3%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 16.2% (7.8%) 0.8% 5.0% 7.9%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 6.5% (2.2%) 0.7% 2.4% 3.6%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 28.6% (14.1%) 1.3% 13.3% 22.5%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 28.8% 31.1% 31.0% 29.7% 26.0%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 307.0% 312.0% 317.7% 313.0% 316.1%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 22.5x - 5.4x 10.8x 3.4x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 21.1x - 1.9x 8.0x 14.5x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 42.1% 39.8% 50.5% 50.6% 47.2%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 138.9% 134.0% 140.0% 137.5% 136.5%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 113.5% 106.6% 114.9% 112.7% 112.9%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

13 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Advanced Semiconductor Engineering Inc. (2311 TT)<br />

Sector: Information Technology Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Semiconductors & Semiconductor Debt Service Cover (x) 2.4x<br />

Country: Taiwan<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 67.1%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 2.3x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Advanced Semiconductor Engineering is the world's largest provider of independent semiconductor<br />

manufacturing services in assembly and test. It is headquartered in Taiwan, with subsidiaries, spread<br />

across the globe. The assembly operations are primarily undertaken by the parent company and the test<br />

operations by subsidiaries, mainly ASE Test. Many of the top Customers of the Company are<br />

headquartered in US and operate primarily in the communication segment. The Company is the market<br />

leader in the OSAT node of semiconductor supply chain.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (NT$ m) 24,931 25,177 25,770 19,011 21,039<br />

Gross Debt (NT$ m) 69,707 76,651 74,074 56,289 44,703<br />

Interest Expense (NT$ m) (1,386) (1,666) (1,870) (1,489) (1,122)<br />

EBIT (NT$ m) 24,099 16,821 16,892 19,319 20,760<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 75.9% 74.9% 67.1% 46.2% 33.3%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 121.3% 114.2% 88.5% 89.3% 102.0%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 1.5x 1.8x 1.9x 1.5x 1.1x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.2x 0.7x 2.4x 1.9x 3.1x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 17.4x 10.1x 9.0x 13.0x 18.5x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (NT$ m) 188,743 185,347 191,954 206,676 217,986<br />

% Change (YoY) 120.0% (1.8%) 3.6% 7.7% 5.5%<br />

EBITDA (NT$ m) 43,953 39,767 40,089 43,393 45,709<br />

% of Sales 23.3% 21.5% 20.9% 21.0% 21.0%<br />

Net Income (NT$ m) 18,338 13,726 12,490 14,821 16,275<br />

% of Sales 9.7% 7.4% 6.5% 7.2% 7.5%<br />

Free Cash Flow (NT$ m) 2,624 1,360 8,009 14,706 17,974<br />

% of Sales 1.4% 0.7% 4.2% 7.1% 8.2%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 27,578 24,931 25,177 25,770 19,011<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2,624 1,360 8,009 14,706 17,974<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 30,202 26,291 33,186 40,476 36,984<br />

Principal Repayments 28,506 43,758 12,627 17,834 11,636<br />

Interest Payments 1,386 1,666 1,870 1,489 1,122<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 29,892 45,424 14,497 19,323 12,758<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.0x 0.6x 2.3x 2.1x 2.9x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In NT$ m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 25,177 40.6%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 83,930 135.2%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 109,108 175.8%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 85,908 138.4%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 195,016 314.2%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 62,061 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(NT$ m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 172,051 191,187 203,325<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 76,651 74,074 56,289<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

2.5x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

2.5x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EI724597 Corp At Maturity Bank Guarantee NT$ 3,000.0 3,000.0 100.00 19-Aug-2011 19-Aug-2016 1.45% 1<br />

EI726026 Corp At Maturity Bank Guarantee NT$ 2,000.0 2,000.0 100.00 19-Aug-2011 19-Aug-2016 1.45% 1<br />

EI726030 Corp At Maturity Bank Gaurantee NT$ 1,000.0 1,000.0 100.00 19-Aug-2011 19-Aug-2016 1.45% 1<br />

14 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (NT$)<br />

30.8%<br />

69.2%<br />

27.9%<br />

72.1%<br />

21.7%<br />

78.3%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

2.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

20.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

2.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

31<br />

26<br />

21<br />

1.0x<br />

0.6x<br />

2.3x<br />

2.1x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

16<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Advanced Semiconductor Engineering Inc.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (NT$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 188,743 185,347 191,954 206,676 217,986<br />

Operating Expenses (144,789) (145,581) (151,864) (163,283) (172,277)<br />

EBITDA 43,953 39,767 40,089 43,393 45,709<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (19,854) (22,945) (23,197) (24,074) (24,949)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 24,099 16,821 16,892 19,319 20,760<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (1,171) (1,336) (1,646) (1,337) (988)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 519 1,780 0 0 0<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 73 97 87 93 98<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 22,824 16,997 15,333 18,074 19,870<br />

Taxes on Profit (3,629) (3,018) (2,457) (2,873) (3,178)<br />

Minority Interests (857) (253) (386) (380) (417)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 18,338 13,726 12,490 14,821 16,275<br />

Balance Sheet (NT$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 93,542 102,953 111,726 111,247 110,057<br />

Long-term Investments 1,242 1,066 1,066 1,066 1,066<br />

Associates 1,158 1,154 1,242 1,334 1,432<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 15,248 15,772 15,192 14,752 14,416<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 122,541 133,746 139,836 137,992 135,279<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 60,668 64,954 64,645 70,396 72,581<br />

Total Current Assets 85,599 90,132 90,415 89,407 93,620<br />

Total Assets 208,140 223,878 230,252 227,399 228,898<br />

Shareholders' Equity 88,556 101,170 108,871 120,060 132,025<br />

Total Equity 91,839 102,282 110,370 121,939 134,322<br />

Long Term Debt 52,534 50,225 28,233 17,367 14,031<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 56,566 54,834 32,841 21,975 18,639<br />

Total Current Liabilities 59,735 66,762 87,040 83,484 75,937<br />

Total Liabilities 116,300 121,596 119,882 105,459 94,577<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 208,140 223,878 230,252 227,399 228,898<br />

Cash Flow Statement (NT$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 22,824 16,997 15,333 18,074 19,870<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 19,854 22,945 23,197 24,074 24,949<br />

Tax Paid (2,110) (2,897) (2,657) (2,775) (2,995)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (2,660) (7,399) 1,117 (2,430) (1,488)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 36,965 31,937 37,208 36,843 40,111<br />

Capital Expenditure (34,341) (30,577) (29,199) (22,138) (22,138)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (1,719) (527) 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (36,085) (32,031) (29,199) (22,138) (22,138)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 4,080 5,747 (2,627) (17,834) (11,636)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net (686) (2,183) 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (1,941) (3,858) (4,789) (3,632) (4,310)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 1,701 (343) (7,416) (21,465) (15,946)<br />

Change in Cash 2,581 (437) 593 (6,759) 2,028<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 23.3% 21.5% 20.9% 21.0% 21.0%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 12.8% 9.1% 8.8% 9.3% 9.5%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 9.7% 7.4% 6.5% 7.2% 7.5%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 22.9% 14.5% 11.9% 12.9% 12.9%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 13.1% 7.9% 7.5% 8.5% 9.2%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 16.4% 9.4% 8.9% 10.1% 10.8%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 75.9% 74.9% 67.1% 46.2% 33.3%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 50.4% 51.1% 44.4% 31.2% 18.2%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 231.1% 227.7% 216.2% 199.9% 181.0%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.2x 0.7x 2.4x 1.9x 3.1x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 17.4x 10.1x 9.0x 13.0x 18.5x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 39.2% 36.6% 28.7% 21.9% 26.7%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 143.3% 135.0% 103.9% 107.1% 123.3%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 121.3% 114.2% 88.5% 89.3% 102.0%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

15 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Air China Limited - H Share (753 HK)<br />

Sector: Industrials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Transportation<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.4x<br />

Country: China<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 209.4%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.2x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Air China is the only national flag carrier of China and a member of Star Alliance, the world’s largest<br />

airline alliance. It is also the only Chinese civil aviation enterprise listed in “The World’s 500 Most<br />

Influential Brands”. Air China is headquartered in Beijing, the capital of China, with two increasingly<br />

important hubs in Shanghai and Chengdu. It is engaged in the provision of airline, and airline-related<br />

services including aircraft engineering services, air catering services and airport ground handling<br />

services, mainly in Mainland China, Hong Kong and Macau.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (RMB m) 15,245 15,590 13,631 17,305 18,447<br />

Gross Debt (RMB m) 85,927 89,416 106,290 122,831 135,252<br />

Interest Expense (RMB m) (1,587) (2,143) (2,255) (2,799) (3,258)<br />

EBIT (RMB m) 12,723 8,551 6,159 8,421 9,672<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 207.7% 185.0% 209.4% 220.2% 220.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 40.8% 35.1% 40.0% 42.5% 40.7%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 3.5x 4.8x 5.8x 5.5x 5.4x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.6x 0.5x 0.4x 0.7x 0.7x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 8.0x 4.0x 2.7x 3.0x 3.0x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (RMB m) 82,178 98,157 104,746 113,601 121,925<br />

% Change (YoY) 60.0% 19.4% 6.7% 8.5% 7.3%<br />

EBITDA (RMB m) 21,379 18,165 16,939 20,925 23,804<br />

% of Sales 26.0% 18.5% 16.2% 18.4% 19.5%<br />

Net Income (RMB m) 12,005 7,082 3,885 5,554 6,473<br />

% of Sales 14.6% 7.2% 3.7% 4.9% 5.3%<br />

Free Cash Flow (RMB m) (1,409) (1,766) (8,518) (2,895) (655)<br />

% of Sales (1.7%) (1.8%) (8.1%) (2.5%) (0.5%)<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 3,272 15,245 15,590 13,631 17,305<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (1,409) (1,766) (8,518) (2,895) (655)<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 1,863 13,479 7,072 10,736 16,650<br />

Principal Repayments 27,807 28,775 30,825 21,060 25,178<br />

Interest Payments 1,587 2,143 2,255 2,799 3,258<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 29,394 30,918 33,080 23,858 28,437<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.1x 0.4x 0.2x 0.4x 0.6x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In RMB m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 15,590 9.6%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 138 0.1%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 15,728 9.7%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 91,361 56.3%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 107,089 66.0%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 162,158 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(RMB m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 57,620 54,538 54,538<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 89,416 106,290 122,831<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

0.8x<br />

9.0x<br />

0.7x<br />

8.0x<br />

0.6x<br />

7.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.3x<br />

6.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

0.2x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.1x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

0.5x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.3x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.3x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.1x<br />

0.1x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.1x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EH758756 Corp At Maturity Unsecured RMB 3,000.0 3,000.0 100.00 20-Mar-2009 20-Mar-2014 3.48% 1<br />

EF083201 Corp At Maturity Bank Guarantee RMB 3,000.0 3,000.0 100.00 07-Sep-2005 07-Sep-2015 4.50% 1<br />

16 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

60.8%<br />

39.2%<br />

66.1% 69.3%<br />

33.9% 30.7%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

7.78<br />

6.78<br />

5.78<br />

4.78<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

3.78<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Air China Limited - H Share


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (RMB m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 82,178 98,157 104,746 113,601 121,925<br />

Operating Expenses (60,799) (79,991) (87,807) (92,676) (98,121)<br />

EBITDA 21,379 18,165 16,939 20,925 23,804<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (8,656) (9,614) (10,780) (12,504) (14,132)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 12,723 8,551 6,159 8,421 9,672<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (1,182) (1,313) (1,548) (2,078) (2,499)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 1,864 3,080 0 0 0<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 3,375 1,329 507 1,028 1,433<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 14,834 9,355 5,117 7,371 8,607<br />

Taxes on Profit (2,498) (2,292) (1,153) (1,586) (1,793)<br />

Minority Interests (331) 20 (79) (231) (341)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 12,005 7,082 3,885 5,554 6,473<br />

Balance Sheet (RMB m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 91,456 104,211 122,777 140,670 157,220<br />

Long-term Investments 27 27 27 27 27<br />

Associates 14,188 13,397 13,777 14,548 15,623<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 3,862 3,491 3,537 3,580 3,621<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 135,794 152,497 172,969 192,109 209,926<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 7,731 7,763 8,486 8,958 9,725<br />

Total Current Assets 22,976 23,353 22,117 26,263 28,172<br />

Total Assets 158,770 175,850 195,086 218,372 238,098<br />

Shareholders' Equity 41,438 46,116 48,480 53,256 58,618<br />

Total Equity 41,371 48,325 50,768 55,777 61,479<br />

Long Term Debt 58,221 58,590 85,231 97,652 103,701<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 65,014 66,193 93,152 105,808 112,113<br />

Total Current Liabilities 52,385 61,332 51,166 56,787 64,505<br />

Total Liabilities 117,398 127,525 144,318 162,595 176,618<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 158,770 175,850 195,086 218,372 238,098<br />

Cash Flow Statement (RMB m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 14,834 9,355 5,117 7,371 8,607<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 8,656 9,614 10,780 12,504 14,132<br />

Tax Paid (503) (3,466) (1,287) (1,421) (1,589)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 678 6,798 (670) 1,101 630<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 19,952 21,813 14,982 20,605 22,845<br />

Capital Expenditure (21,361) (23,579) (23,500) (23,500) (23,500)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 1,951 1,175 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (14,058) (21,669) (23,240) (23,096) (22,956)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 1,042 92 10,075 9,740 5,622<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 6,421 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid 0 (1,524) (1,521) (777) (1,111)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 5,877 (3,575) 6,299 6,165 1,253<br />

Change in Cash 11,771 (3,432) (1,959) 3,674 1,142<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 26.0% 18.5% 16.2% 18.4% 19.5%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 15.5% 8.7% 5.9% 7.4% 7.9%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 14.6% 7.2% 3.7% 4.9% 5.3%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 36.7% 16.2% 8.2% 10.9% 11.6%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 9.6% 5.3% 3.4% 4.2% 4.4%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 11.7% 5.8% 3.8% 4.5% 4.7%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 207.7% 185.0% 209.4% 220.2% 220.0%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 172.9% 153.0% 182.8% 189.4% 190.2%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 408.1% 382.2% 392.1% 406.4% 408.0%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.6x 0.5x 0.4x 0.7x 0.7x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 8.0x 4.0x 2.7x 3.0x 3.0x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 27.5% 25.2% 26.4% 30.2% 28.4%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 43.9% 38.1% 43.2% 46.2% 43.7%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 40.8% 35.1% 40.0% 42.5% 40.7%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

17 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Aluminum Corp of China Ltd. - H Share (2600 HK)<br />

Sector: Materials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Materials<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.4x<br />

Country: China<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 153.4%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.2x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Aluminum Corporation of China Limited was incorporated on February 21, 2001. Over the years, the<br />

company has established itself as China’s largest producer of alumina, primary aluminum and aluminum<br />

fabrication products in terms of production volume. The company is the world’s third largest producer of<br />

alumina and fourth largest producer of primary aluminum.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (RMB m) 10,117 12,542 16,341 9,123 11,293<br />

Gross Debt (RMB m) 69,444 82,706 85,501 88,761 89,620<br />

Interest Expense (RMB m) (2,986) (4,046) (3,364) (3,485) (3,211)<br />

EBIT (RMB m) 3,284 3,143 (61) 2,112 2,629<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 121.4% 142.2% 153.4% 160.5% 161.3%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 35.1% 41.4% 56.2% 46.7% 49.7%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 7.2x 8.6x 14.9x 10.9x 10.4x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.1x 0.1x 0.4x 0.7x 0.5x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 1.1x 0.8x - 0.6x 0.8x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (RMB m) 120,995 145,874 140,539 146,650 151,405<br />

% Change (YoY) 72.2% 20.6% (3.7%) 4.3% 3.2%<br />

EBITDA (RMB m) 9,241 8,878 5,626 7,958 8,593<br />

% of Sales 7.6% 6.1% 4.0% 5.4% 5.7%<br />

Net Income (RMB m) 778 238 (1,385) (217) 140<br />

% of Sales 0.6% 0.2% (1.0%) (0.1%) 0.1%<br />

Free Cash Flow (RMB m) (1,232) (6,251) 3,898 (7,385) 4,233<br />

% of Sales (1.0%) (4.3%) 2.8% (5.0%) 2.8%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 7,493 9,604 11,488 15,288 8,069<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (1,232) (6,251) 3,898 (7,385) 4,233<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 6,261 3,353 15,386 7,903 12,302<br />

Principal Repayments 41,195 61,078 9,805 8,441 11,341<br />

Interest Payments 2,986 4,046 3,364 3,485 3,211<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 44,181 65,124 13,169 11,926 14,551<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.1x 0.1x 1.2x 0.7x 0.8x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In RMB m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 11,488 14.5%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 8,971 11.3%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 20,459 25.8%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 20,459 25.8%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 79,190 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(RMB m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 65,451 53,092 53,092<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 82,706 85,501 88,761<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

0.8x<br />

1.2x<br />

0.7x<br />

0.6x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.8x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.6x<br />

0.3x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.1x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

1.4x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.1x<br />

0.1x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EJ278534 Corp At Maturity Unsecured RMB 5,000.0 5,000.0 100.00 18-Jul-2012 18-Jul-2013 3.60% 1<br />

EH587102 Corp At Maturity Unsecured RMB 5,000.0 5,000.0 100.00 31-Oct-2010 31-Oct-2013 4.58% 1<br />

EI801545 Corp Puttable Unsecured RMB 5,000.0 5,000.0 100.00 09-Sep-2011 09-Sep-2016 5.86% 1<br />

18 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

55.8%<br />

44.2%<br />

61.7% 62.6%<br />

38.3% 37.4%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

1.2x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.8x<br />

0.6x<br />

4.93<br />

4.43<br />

3.93<br />

3.43<br />

2.93<br />

1.2x<br />

0.7x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

2.43<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Aluminum Corp of China Ltd. - H Share


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (RMB m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 120,995 145,874 140,539 146,650 151,405<br />

Operating Expenses (111,754) (136,997) (134,913) (138,691) (142,811)<br />

EBITDA 9,241 8,878 5,626 7,958 8,593<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (5,957) (5,735) (5,687) (5,846) (5,964)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 3,284 3,143 (61) 2,112 2,629<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (2,495) (3,294) (3,164) (3,312) (3,078)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 820 724 753 784 817<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 474 525 316 346 370<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 1,380 818 (2,518) (433) 373<br />

Taxes on Profit (411) (127) 0 0 (93)<br />

Minority Interests (191) (453) 1,133 217 (140)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 778 238 (1,385) (217) 140<br />

Balance Sheet (RMB m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 72,722 77,579 80,694 83,082 85,009<br />

Long-term Investments 1,035 1,502 1,604 1,711 1,814<br />

Associates 1,213 2,493 2,742 3,016 3,318<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 3,034 4,149 4,082 4,021 3,966<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 99,997 107,164 110,114 112,312 114,386<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 31,207 37,428 33,338 42,626 36,506<br />

Total Current Assets 41,325 49,970 49,679 51,748 47,799<br />

Total Assets 141,322 157,134 159,793 164,061 162,185<br />

Shareholders' Equity 51,581 51,826 50,391 50,174 50,286<br />

Total Equity 57,187 58,155 55,723 55,315 55,551<br />

Long Term Debt 27,724 35,969 51,301 53,257 53,772<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 28,402 36,619 52,001 54,007 54,573<br />

Total Current Liabilities 55,734 62,360 52,069 54,738 52,062<br />

Total Liabilities 84,135 98,979 104,070 108,745 106,635<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 141,322 157,134 159,793 164,061 162,185<br />

Cash Flow Statement (RMB m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 1,380 818 (2,518) (433) 373<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 5,957 5,735 5,687 5,846 5,964<br />

Tax Paid (300) (278) (46) (5) (84)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (2,359) (6,559) 5,256 (8,553) 3,138<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 7,104 2,490 12,924 1,045 12,655<br />

Capital Expenditure (8,336) (8,741) (9,026) (8,430) (8,422)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (100) (968) 184 193 200<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (8,260) (9,715) (8,641) (8,063) (8,089)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 5,640 13,133 2,795 3,259 859<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net (30) (21) 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (110) (224) 86 25 (44)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 2,718 8,842 (483) (200) (2,396)<br />

Change in Cash 1,561 1,618 3,799 (7,219) 2,171<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 7.6% 6.1% 4.0% 5.4% 5.7%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 2.7% 2.2% 0.0% 1.4% 1.7%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 0.6% 0.2% (1.0%) (0.1%) 0.1%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 1.5% 0.5% (2.7%) (0.4%) 0.3%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 2.5% 2.2% 0.1% 1.4% 1.7%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 2.0% 2.2% 0.0% 1.7% 1.5%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 121.4% 142.2% 153.4% 160.5% 161.3%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 104.8% 122.2% 125.7% 145.6% 142.6%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 269.9% 288.6% 310.1% 322.0% 324.8%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.1x 0.1x 0.4x 0.7x 0.5x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 1.1x 0.8x - 0.6x 0.8x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 17.0% 18.7% 29.7% 15.0% 20.0%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 74.1% 80.1% 95.4% 94.5% 91.8%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 35.1% 41.4% 56.2% 46.7% 49.7%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

19 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Ambuja Cements Ltd. (ACEM IN)<br />

Sector: Materials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Materials<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 45.0x<br />

Country: India<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 0.7%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 55.4x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Ambuja Cements Limited is one of India’s leading cement manufacturing companies (third largest by<br />

installed capacity). The company has 13 manufacturing plants in India (5 Integrated units) with a total<br />

capacity of about 28 million tones. These plants are situated in the states of Gujarat, Maharashtra,<br />

Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and West Bengal. It<br />

has extensive captive infrastructure in the form of captive power plants, port, receiving and export<br />

terminals to support the primary business.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Rs m) 16,484 20,754 26,885 31,459 44,377<br />

Gross Debt (Rs m) 650 696 645 594 543<br />

Interest Expense (Rs m) (189) (256) (536) (81) (74)<br />

EBIT (Rs m) 15,632 15,486 22,324 26,092 28,733<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 0.9% 0.9% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 93.2% 107.4% 111.7% 128.9% 140.3%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.1x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 9.4x 18.0x 45.0x 207.7x 237.2x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 82.8x 60.5x 41.6x 324.0x 388.6x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (Rs m) 73,902 85,312 102,599 116,261 130,788<br />

% Change (YoY) 4.4% 15.4% 20.3% 13.3% 12.5%<br />

EBITDA (Rs m) 19,504 19,948 27,408 31,196 34,193<br />

% of Sales 26.4% 23.4% 26.7% 26.8% 26.1%<br />

Net Income (Rs m) 12,630 12,277 15,532 20,826 23,192<br />

% of Sales 17.1% 14.4% 15.1% 17.9% 17.7%<br />

Free Cash Flow (Rs m) 10,244 8,832 11,750 11,990 21,979<br />

% of Sales 13.9% 10.4% 11.5% 10.3% 16.8%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 8,809 16,484 20,754 26,885 31,459<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 10,244 8,832 11,750 11,990 21,979<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 19,053 25,316 32,503 38,876 53,438<br />

Principal Repayments 1,437 615 51 51 51<br />

Interest Payments 189 256 536 81 74<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 1,626 871 587 131 125<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 11.7x 29.1x 55.4x 296.1x 428.6x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In Rs m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 20,754 1,935.1%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 92,606 8,634.6%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 113,360 10,569.6%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 113,360 10,569.6%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 1,073 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

20 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

0.3%<br />

99.7%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(Rs m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 238,364 308,255 313,395<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 696 645 594<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

350.0x<br />

0.2%<br />

99.8%<br />

100.0x<br />

55.4x<br />

50.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

11.7x<br />

29.1x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

0.2%<br />

99.8%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

250.0x<br />

350.0x<br />

200.0x<br />

300.0x<br />

250.0x<br />

150.0x<br />

200.0x<br />

100.0x<br />

150.0x<br />

100.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (Rs)<br />

300.0x<br />

250.0x<br />

200.0x<br />

150.0x<br />

296.1x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

257<br />

237<br />

217<br />

197<br />

177<br />

157<br />

137<br />

117<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Ambuja Cements Ltd.<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (Rs m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 73,902 85,312 102,599 116,261 130,788<br />

Operating Expenses (55,672) (66,248) (75,754) (85,706) (97,298)<br />

EBITDA 19,504 19,948 27,408 31,196 34,193<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (3,872) (4,462) (5,084) (5,103) (5,460)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 15,632 15,486 22,324 26,092 28,733<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 232 1,019 1,880 2,282 3,145<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 139 158 513 107 106<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 16,612 17,012 22,237 28,588 32,089<br />

Taxes on Profit (3,983) (4,738) (6,705) (7,763) (8,897)<br />

Minority Interests 0 3 0 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 12,630 12,277 15,532 20,826 23,192<br />

Balance Sheet (Rs m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 56,160 62,233 64,502 67,572 70,213<br />

Long-term Investments 6,211 8,060 9,123 10,058 11,003<br />

Associates 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 160 424 296 207 114<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 71,838 76,520 81,447 86,166 89,531<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 14,874 17,638 18,817 22,465 24,907<br />

Total Current Assets 31,358 38,392 45,703 53,924 69,284<br />

Total Assets 103,196 114,912 127,149 140,091 158,815<br />

Shareholders' Equity 73,266 80,647 89,397 101,239 112,940<br />

Total Equity 73,266 80,671 89,421 101,263 112,965<br />

Long Term Debt 650 696 645 594 543<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 5,959 7,141 7,090 7,039 6,988<br />

Total Current Liabilities 23,971 27,100 30,638 31,788 38,861<br />

Total Liabilities 29,930 34,241 37,728 38,827 45,850<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 103,196 114,912 127,149 140,091 158,815<br />

Cash Flow Statement (Rs m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 16,612 17,012 22,237 28,588 32,089<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 3,872 4,462 5,084 5,103 5,460<br />

Tax Paid (368) (4,725) (6,906) (7,334) (8,116)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (244) 777 2,560 (2,926) 3,850<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 18,753 16,158 20,750 20,990 29,979<br />

Capital Expenditure (8,509) (7,326) (9,000) (9,000) (8,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 1,971 (145) 22 228 229<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (5,271) (5,294) (6,249) (6,301) (4,446)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (849) (12) (51) (51) (51)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 538 462 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (4,248) (4,964) (6,782) (8,984) (11,491)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (4,748) (4,762) (7,369) (9,115) (11,615)<br />

Change in Cash 8,734 6,102 7,131 5,574 13,918<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 26.4% 23.4% 26.7% 26.8% 26.1%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 21.2% 18.2% 21.8% 22.4% 22.0%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 17.1% 14.4% 15.1% 17.9% 17.7%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 18.3% 16.0% 18.3% 21.8% 21.7%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 17.0% 15.6% 20.4% 21.3% 21.4%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 21.3% 19.3% 26.1% 29.9% 31.6%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 0.9% 0.9% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 139.1% 141.7% 142.4% 140.2% 139.6%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 9.4x 18.0x 45.0x 207.7x 237.2x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 82.8x 60.5x 41.6x 324.0x 388.6x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 68.8% 76.6% 87.8% 99.0% 114.2%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 130.8% 141.7% 149.2% 169.6% 178.3%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 93.2% 107.4% 111.7% 128.9% 140.3%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

21 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Angang Steel Company Limited - H Share (347 HK)<br />

Sector: Materials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Materials<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.3x<br />

Country: China<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 43.9%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.6x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Angang Steel Company Ltd. is one of China’s largest steel producers with a total capacity of 21 million<br />

tonnes of crude steel. The company is located in the Liaoning province, in the north-eastern part of<br />

China. It is a joint-stock company parented by Anshan Iron and Steel Group, a state-owned group with<br />

an annual crude steel capacity of 32 million tonnes (third largest in China).<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (RMB m) 3,651 2,341 667 1,065 3,347<br />

Gross Debt (RMB m) 32,073 33,966 22,135 23,331 18,328<br />

Interest Expense (RMB m) (1,679) (1,766) (1,423) (1,643) (1,603)<br />

EBIT (RMB m) 3,052 (2,426) (1,666) 92 2,402<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 58.0% 65.0% 43.9% 46.9% 36.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 51.7% 41.5% 39.0% 45.9% 61.4%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 3.2x 7.1x 5.0x 2.9x 2.0x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.3x 0.2x 0.3x 1.1x 0.9x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 1.8x - - 0.1x 1.5x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (RMB m) 92,212 90,207 79,332 86,009 94,517<br />

% Change (YoY) 31.6% (2.2%) (12.1%) 8.4% 9.9%<br />

EBITDA (RMB m) 10,228 4,629 5,596 7,828 10,470<br />

% of Sales 11.1% 5.1% 7.1% 9.1% 11.1%<br />

Net Income (RMB m) 2,054 (2,163) (1,938) (665) 1,176<br />

% of Sales 2.2% (2.4%) (2.4%) (0.8%) 1.2%<br />

Free Cash Flow (RMB m) 2,611 (2,465) 10,092 (870) 7,205<br />

% of Sales 2.8% (2.7%) 12.7% (1.0%) 7.6%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 2,242 3,651 2,341 667 1,065<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2,611 (2,465) 10,092 (866) 7,214<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 4,853 1,186 12,433 (199) 8,280<br />

Principal Repayments 26,077 22,550 17,831 5,804 8,004<br />

Interest Payments 1,679 1,766 1,423 1,643 1,603<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 27,756 24,316 19,254 7,447 9,606<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.2x 0.0x 0.6x 0.0x 0.9x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In RMB m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 2,341 4.6%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 22,692 44.6%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 25,033 49.2%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 25,033 49.2%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 50,930 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

22 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

53.9%<br />

46.1%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(RMB m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 29,064 24,944 24,944<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 33,966 22,135 23,331<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

1.2x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

0.7x<br />

0.6x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.3x<br />

0.6x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.1x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

(0.1x) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

(0.0x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

47.0% 48.3%<br />

53.0% 51.7%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

1.0x<br />

0.8x<br />

0.6x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.2x<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

2.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

7.97<br />

6.97<br />

5.97<br />

4.97<br />

3.97<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

2.97<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Angang Steel Company Limited - H Share<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (RMB m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 92,212 90,207 79,332 86,009 94,517<br />

Operating Expenses (81,984) (85,578) (73,737) (78,181) (84,047)<br />

EBITDA 10,228 4,629 5,596 7,828 10,470<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (7,176) (7,055) (7,262) (7,735) (8,068)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 3,052 (2,426) (1,666) 92 2,402<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (1,277) (1,460) (1,158) (1,412) (1,244)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 228 216 208 199 185<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 393 391 205 226 248<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 2,378 (3,304) (2,484) (971) 1,511<br />

Taxes on Profit (413) 955 621 332 (380)<br />

Minority Interests 89 186 (75) (25) 46<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 2,054 (2,163) (1,938) (665) 1,176<br />

Balance Sheet (RMB m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 64,226 60,387 57,991 54,514 50,648<br />

Long-term Investments 434 450 455 460 466<br />

Associates 1,733 2,125 2,330 2,556 2,804<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 8 3 0 0 0<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 74,093 74,573 71,274 67,060 64,338<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 29,375 28,001 17,288 25,460 19,597<br />

Total Current Assets 33,026 30,342 17,954 26,525 22,944<br />

Total Assets 107,119 104,915 89,229 93,585 87,282<br />

Shareholders' Equity 54,052 50,739 48,801 48,141 49,327<br />

Total Equity 55,329 52,293 50,430 49,794 50,935<br />

Long Term Debt 12,717 13,135 15,331 17,528 14,524<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 13,308 13,821 15,937 18,073 15,023<br />

Total Current Liabilities 38,482 38,801 22,862 25,718 21,325<br />

Total Liabilities 51,790 52,622 38,799 43,791 36,347<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 107,119 104,915 89,229 93,585 87,282<br />

Cash Flow Statement (RMB m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 2,378 (3,304) (2,484) (971) 1,511<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 7,176 7,055 7,262 7,735 8,068<br />

Tax Paid (568) (57) 621 332 (380)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (1,195) 7 8,154 (5,389) 2,651<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 7,462 3,030 13,983 2,565 12,448<br />

Capital Expenditure (4,851) (5,495) (3,891) (3,435) (5,243)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (20) (100) 65 68 71<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (4,795) (5,589) (3,826) (3,367) (5,172)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (3,812) (4,105) (12,831) 196 (6,004)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (434) (1,085) 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (1,258) 1,249 (11,831) 1,196 (5,004)<br />

Change in Cash 1,409 (1,310) (1,674) 394 2,272<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 11.1% 5.1% 7.1% 9.1% 11.1%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 3.3% (2.7%) (2.1%) 0.1% 2.5%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 2.2% (2.4%) (2.4%) (0.8%) 1.2%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 3.9% (4.1%) (3.9%) (1.4%) 2.4%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 2.9% (2.3%) (1.7%) 0.1% 2.7%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 3.1% (3.0%) (2.2%) 0.1% 2.7%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 58.0% 65.0% 43.9% 46.9% 36.0%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 51.4% 60.5% 42.6% 44.7% 29.4%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 197.6% 202.3% 195.0% 188.6% 185.6%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.3x 0.2x 0.3x 1.1x 0.9x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 1.8x - - 0.1x 1.5x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 9.5% 6.0% 2.9% 4.1% 15.7%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 85.8% 78.2% 78.5% 103.1% 107.6%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 51.7% 41.5% 39.0% 45.9% 61.4%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

23 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


AngloGold Ashanti (ANG SJ)<br />

Sector: Materials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Materials<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 14.2x<br />

Country: South Africa<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 46.2%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 5.7x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

AngloGold Ashanti Limited, is the third largest gold miner in the world measured by production. It also<br />

sells other valuable by-products like silver, sulphuric acid and uranium which are produced during the<br />

process of gold mining at certain operations. The company operates 20 mines in 10 countries on four<br />

continents and has both surface and underground mining operations in South Africa, Continental Africa,<br />

Americas and Australasia.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (US$ m) 575 1,112 1,285 2,762 3,696<br />

Gross Debt (US$ m) 2,704 2,488 3,056 3,224 2,601<br />

Interest Expense (US$ m) (115) (144) (166) (178) (153)<br />

EBIT (US$ m) 1,346 2,040 2,140 2,720 3,238<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 65.7% 48.2% 46.2% 38.4% 24.4%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 85.6% 159.6% 296.1% 171.6% 407.6%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 1.1x 0.9x 0.9x 0.9x 0.7x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.4x 5.3x 14.2x 10.1x 3.0x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 11.7x 14.2x 12.9x 15.3x 21.2x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (US$ m) 5,334 6,570 7,133 8,182 8,926<br />

% Change (YoY) 41.6% 23.2% 8.6% 14.7% 9.1%<br />

EBITDA (US$ m) 2,038 2,810 2,982 3,657 4,247<br />

% of Sales 38.2% 42.8% 41.8% 44.7% 47.6%<br />

Net Income (US$ m) 76 1,552 1,358 1,692 2,114<br />

% of Sales 1.4% 23.6% 19.0% 20.7% 23.7%<br />

Free Cash Flow (US$ m) (1,915) 1,262 23 1,753 1,975<br />

% of Sales (35.9%) 19.2% 0.3% 21.4% 22.1%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 1,100 575 1,112 1,285 2,762<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (1,915) 1,262 23 1,753 1,975<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) (815) 1,837 1,135 3,038 4,737<br />

Principal Repayments 1,642 268 32 132 923<br />

Interest Payments 115 144 166 178 153<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 1,757 412 198 310 1,076<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) (0.5x) 4.5x 5.7x 9.8x 4.4x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In US$ m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 1,112 38.3%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 10,630 366.2%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 11,742 404.5%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 11,742 404.5%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 2,903 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(US$ m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 16,335 11,914 12,289<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 2,488 3,056 3,224<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

16.0x<br />

18.0x<br />

14.0x<br />

16.0x<br />

12.0x<br />

14.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

12.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

12.0x<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EJ299224 Corp Callable Company Guarantee US$ 750.0 750.0 99.40 30-Jul-2012 01-Aug-2022 5.13% 2<br />

EH834577 Corp Convertible Company Guarantee US$ 732.5 732.5 100.00 22-May-2009 22-May-2014 3.50% 2<br />

EH836470 Corp Convertible Company Guarantee US$ 732.5 732.5 100.00 18-May-2009 18-May-2014 3.50% 2<br />

24 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (ZAr)<br />

13.2%<br />

86.8%<br />

20.4% 20.8%<br />

79.6% 79.2%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

10.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

(2.0x)<br />

41,463<br />

36,463<br />

31,463<br />

26,463<br />

4.5x<br />

5.7x<br />

9.8x<br />

2010A (0.5x) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

21,463<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

AngloGold Ashanti


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (US$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 5,334 6,570 7,133 8,182 8,926<br />

Operating Expenses (3,296) (3,760) (4,150) (4,525) (4,680)<br />

EBITDA 2,038 2,810 2,982 3,657 4,247<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (692) (770) (842) (936) (1,008)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 1,346 2,040 2,140 2,720 3,238<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (72) (89) (51) (21) 65<br />

Other Income/(Expense) (798) 213 48 (29) 44<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 63 73 83 94 107<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 405 2,321 2,219 2,764 3,454<br />

Taxes on Profit (276) (723) (621) (774) (967)<br />

Minority Interests (53) (46) (240) (299) (373)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 76 1,552 1,358 1,692 2,114<br />

Balance Sheet (US$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 5,736 6,043 6,493 6,573 6,537<br />

Long-term Investments 237 186 234 269 298<br />

Associates 622 702 798 907 1,031<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 194 210 227 245 262<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 7,808 8,241 9,346 9,987 10,246<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 1,149 1,449 1,519 1,723 1,657<br />

Total Current Assets 1,724 2,561 2,804 4,485 5,353<br />

Total Assets 9,532 10,802 12,150 14,472 15,599<br />

Shareholders' Equity 3,989 5,029 6,251 7,774 9,677<br />

Total Equity 4,113 5,166 6,608 8,403 10,647<br />

Long Term Debt 2,569 2,456 3,024 2,451 2,265<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 4,445 4,698 4,971 4,222 3,935<br />

Total Current Liabilities 974 938 571 1,846 1,017<br />

Total Liabilities 5,419 5,636 5,542 6,068 4,951<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 9,532 10,802 12,150 14,472 15,599<br />

Cash Flow Statement (US$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 405 2,321 2,219 2,764 3,454<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 692 770 842 936 1,008<br />

Tax Paid (188) (379) (621) (743) (922)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (299) (170) (462) 297 (371)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations (942) 2,655 2,467 3,757 3,943<br />

Capital Expenditure (973) (1,393) (2,444) (2,003) (1,967)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 54 (154) (179) (188) (194)<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (871) (1,564) (2,540) (2,075) (1,990)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 674 (159) 568 168 (623)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 778 9 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (117) (169) (156) (195) (243)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 1,194 (463) 246 (205) (1,019)<br />

Change in Cash (619) 628 173 1,477 934<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 38.2% 42.8% 41.8% 44.7% 47.6%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 25.2% 31.1% 30.0% 33.2% 36.3%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 1.4% 23.6% 19.0% 20.7% 23.7%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 2.2% 34.4% 24.1% 24.1% 24.2%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 14.4% 20.6% 19.3% 21.3% 22.7%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 7.2% 18.5% 17.9% 20.9% 24.1%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 65.7% 48.2% 46.2% 38.4% 24.4%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 51.8% 26.6% 26.8% 5.5% -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 280.4% 225.5% 203.5% 189.8% 172.3%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.4x 5.3x 14.2x 10.1x 3.0x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 11.7x 14.2x 12.9x 15.3x 21.2x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 59.0% 118.6% 225.0% 149.6% 363.4%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 177.0% 273.0% 490.9% 243.0% 526.4%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 85.6% 159.6% 296.1% 171.6% 407.6%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

25 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Anhui Conch Cement Company - H Share (914 HK)<br />

Sector: Materials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Materials<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.8x<br />

Country: China<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 51.1%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 2.2x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Anhui Conch Cement Company Ltd is the second largest manufacturer of cement in China and Asia in<br />

terms of installed capacity. The company was incorporated on September 1, 1997 as a joint stock limited<br />

company owned by the Anhui Provincial Government. At the end of 2011, the company’s clinker<br />

production capacity and cement production capacity reached 164 million tonnes and 180 million tones,<br />

respectively. The company derives 97.5% of its sales from the domestic market and the remaining 2.5%<br />

of its sales from exports.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (RMB m) 2,689 7,969 17,428 19,138 28,265<br />

Gross Debt (RMB m) 14,143 22,436 27,239 28,046 30,529<br />

Interest Expense (RMB m) (658) (765) (1,445) (1,700) (1,888)<br />

EBIT (RMB m) 8,097 15,519 11,664 13,412 14,901<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 40.1% 48.3% 51.1% 45.2% 42.6%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 84.2% 128.5% 155.9% 211.9% 286.6%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 1.2x 1.0x 1.7x 1.6x 1.6x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.5x 2.2x 1.8x 1.2x 1.6x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 12.3x 20.3x 8.1x 7.9x 7.9x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (RMB m) 34,508 48,654 47,897 53,567 59,838<br />

% Change (YoY) 38.0% 41.0% (1.6%) 11.8% 11.7%<br />

EBITDA (RMB m) 10,116 18,090 14,813 16,981 18,848<br />

% of Sales 29.3% 37.2% 30.9% 31.7% 31.5%<br />

Net Income (RMB m) 6,160 11,586 8,466 9,717 10,966<br />

% of Sales 17.8% 23.8% 17.7% 18.1% 18.3%<br />

Free Cash Flow (RMB m) (3,594) 1,872 6,915 3,111 10,034<br />

% of Sales (10.4%) 3.8% 14.4% 5.8% 16.8%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 3,573 2,689 7,969 17,428 19,138<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (3,594) 1,872 6,915 3,111 10,034<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) (21) 4,562 14,884 20,539 29,172<br />

Principal Repayments 4,859 5,603 5,197 9,192 7,518<br />

Interest Payments 658 765 1,445 1,700 1,888<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 5,517 6,369 6,642 10,892 9,406<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.0x 0.7x 2.2x 1.9x 3.1x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In RMB m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 7,969 16.0%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 39,746 79.6%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 47,715 95.5%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 52,003 104.1%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 99,717 199.6%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 49,958 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

26 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

26.1% 26.7% 27.3%<br />

73.9% 73.3% 72.7%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(RMB m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 63,462 74,661 74,661<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 22,436 27,239 28,046<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

2.5x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

2.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

2.5x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

36<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

25.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

2.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.0x<br />

(0.5x)<br />

31<br />

26<br />

21<br />

0.7x<br />

2.2x<br />

1.9x<br />

2010A<br />

(0.0x)<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

16<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Anhui Conch Cement Company - H Share<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (RMB m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 34,508 48,654 47,897 53,567 59,838<br />

Operating Expenses (24,392) (30,564) (33,084) (36,585) (40,990)<br />

EBITDA 10,116 18,090 14,813 16,981 18,848<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (2,019) (2,571) (3,149) (3,569) (3,947)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 8,097 15,519 11,664 13,412 14,901<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (469) (646) (654) (763) (723)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 467 769 630 694 767<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 27 27 (15) 13 14<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 8,112 15,699 11,628 13,358 14,961<br />

Taxes on Profit (1,770) (3,880) (2,807) (3,240) (3,540)<br />

Minority Interests (182) (233) (355) (402) (455)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 6,160 11,586 8,466 9,717 10,966<br />

Balance Sheet (RMB m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 34,772 45,716 51,231 54,208 56,101<br />

Long-term Investments 3,755 3,579 3,404 3,237 3,079<br />

Associates 1,023 399 386 398 410<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 798 1,876 2,892 4,485 6,980<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 46,906 57,783 63,671 66,837 70,821<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 10,812 18,251 12,288 20,274 17,343<br />

Total Current Assets 13,502 26,220 29,715 39,412 45,608<br />

Total Assets 60,407 84,003 93,386 106,249 116,430<br />

Shareholders' Equity 34,629 44,457 51,068 59,430 68,841<br />

Total Equity 35,249 46,449 53,324 61,985 71,735<br />

Long Term Debt 10,971 19,239 22,046 26,529 29,011<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 12,081 20,563 23,429 27,946 30,460<br />

Total Current Liabilities 13,077 16,991 16,633 16,318 14,235<br />

Total Liabilities 25,158 37,555 40,062 44,264 44,695<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 60,407 84,003 93,386 106,249 116,430<br />

Cash Flow Statement (RMB m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 8,112 15,699 11,628 13,358 14,961<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 2,019 2,571 3,149 3,569 3,947<br />

Tax Paid (1,282) (3,114) (3,101) (3,198) (3,438)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (3,330) (5,175) 3,957 (4,646) 767<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 5,352 9,727 15,095 8,291 15,214<br />

Capital Expenditure (8,946) (7,854) (8,180) (5,180) (5,180)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (1,277) (1,335) (867) (1,499) (2,493)<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (10,341) (10,168) (8,513) (5,954) (6,924)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 4,566 7,233 4,803 808 2,482<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (637) (1,066) (1,926) (1,435) (1,646)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 4,105 5,499 2,877 (627) 836<br />

Change in Cash (884) 5,058 9,459 1,710 9,127<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 29.3% 37.2% 30.9% 31.7% 31.5%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 23.5% 31.9% 24.4% 25.0% 24.9%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 17.8% 23.8% 17.7% 18.1% 18.3%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 19.6% 29.3% 17.7% 17.6% 17.1%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 15.2% 21.8% 13.8% 14.2% 14.3%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 16.7% 23.1% 14.9% 15.7% 16.2%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 40.1% 48.3% 51.1% 45.2% 42.6%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 32.5% 31.1% 18.4% 14.4% 3.2%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 170.7% 182.6% 185.7% 180.7% 173.6%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.5x 2.2x 1.8x 1.2x 1.6x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 12.3x 20.3x 8.1x 7.9x 7.9x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 20.6% 46.9% 104.8% 117.3% 198.6%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 103.2% 154.3% 178.7% 241.5% 320.4%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 84.2% 128.5% 155.9% 211.9% 286.6%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

27 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Apollo Tyres Ltd. (APTY IN)<br />

Sector: Consumer Discretionary Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Automobiles & Components<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.3x<br />

Country: India<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 71.6%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.0x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Established in India in 1972, Apollo Tyres Limited is in the business of manufacture and sale of tyres.<br />

Since its inception, the company has steadily expanded its operations across the world. The company<br />

has three main geographic segments, which include India, South Africa and Europe. The Indian segment<br />

includes manufacturing and sales operations through India, South African segment includes<br />

manufacturing and sales operations through South Africa along with its subsidiaries and European<br />

segment includes manufacturing and sales operations through the plant at Netherlands along with its<br />

subsidiaries. The key brands of the company are ‘Apollo’ in India, ‘Dunlop’ in South Africa and<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Mar) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Rs m) 1,909 1,730 1,666 1,907 1,393<br />

Gross Debt (Rs m) 24,802 28,720 24,361 18,728 13,396<br />

Interest Expense (Rs m) (1,801) (2,769) (3,032) (2,114) (1,486)<br />

EBIT (Rs m) 6,932 8,418 11,194 12,239 13,380<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 102.8% 101.4% 71.6% 45.8% 27.4%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 43.5% 49.1% 54.7% 57.9% 58.1%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 2.2x 2.3x 1.8x 1.3x 0.9x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.9x 1.3x 1.3x 1.6x 1.9x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 3.8x 3.0x 3.7x 5.8x 9.0x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (Rs m) 88,677 121,533 138,570 153,414 167,169<br />

% Change (YoY) 9.2% 37.1% 14.0% 10.7% 9.0%<br />

EBITDA (Rs m) 9,651 11,674 14,844 16,024 17,476<br />

% of Sales 10.9% 9.6% 10.7% 10.4% 10.5%<br />

Net Income (Rs m) 4,402 4,099 6,108 7,350 8,473<br />

% of Sales 5.0% 3.4% 4.4% 4.8% 5.1%<br />

Free Cash Flow (Rs m) (7,024) (337) 7,569 8,331 6,732<br />

% of Sales (7.9%) (0.3%) 5.5% 5.4% 4.0%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 3,491 1,909 1,730 1,666 1,907<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (7,024) (337) 7,569 8,331 6,732<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) (3,533) 1,572 9,299 9,998 8,639<br />

Principal Repayments 2,622 4,360 6,359 5,633 5,332<br />

Interest Payments 1,801 2,769 3,032 2,114 1,486<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 4,424 7,129 9,391 7,747 6,818<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) (0.8x) 0.2x 1.0x 1.3x 1.3x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In Rs m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 1,730 5.0%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 36,983 107.3%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 38,713 112.4%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 38,713 112.4%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 34,453 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(Rs m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 40,146 45,513 45,513<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 28,720 24,361 18,728<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

1.5x<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EH765508 Corp Sink Secured Rs 1,250.0 1,250.0 100.00 03-Mar-2009 03-Mar-2016 11.50% 12<br />

EJ379554 Corp At Maturity Secured Rs 1,000.0 1,000.0 100.00 29-Mar-2012 29-Mar-2015 10.15% 12<br />

28 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

41.7%<br />

58.3%<br />

34.9%<br />

65.1%<br />

29.2%<br />

70.8%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

2.5x<br />

7.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

4.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (Rs)<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.0x<br />

(0.5x)<br />

(1.0x)<br />

(0.8x)<br />

0.2x<br />

1.0x<br />

1.3x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

119<br />

109<br />

99<br />

89<br />

79<br />

69<br />

59<br />

49<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Apollo Tyres Ltd.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (Rs m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 88,677 121,533 138,570 153,414 167,169<br />

Operating Expenses (79,026) (109,858) (123,726) (137,391) (149,693)<br />

EBITDA 9,651 11,674 14,844 16,024 17,476<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (2,719) (3,256) (3,650) (3,785) (4,097)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 6,932 8,418 11,194 12,239 13,380<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (1,834) (2,724) (2,681) (1,811) (1,187)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 223 177 (20) (250) (250)<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 5,471 5,565 8,492 10,178 11,943<br />

Taxes on Profit (1,063) (1,444) (2,355) (2,822) (3,475)<br />

Minority Interests 0 1 0 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items (6) (23) (29) (6) 5<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 4,402 4,099 6,108 7,350 8,473<br />

Balance Sheet (Rs m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 33,095 39,180 38,988 40,259 43,316<br />

Long-term Investments 12 15 15 15 15<br />

Associates 100 143 114 109 114<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 2,098 2,396 2,359 2,480 2,767<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 41,552 47,271 48,637 49,846 53,255<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 29,633 34,943 35,477 35,938 36,324<br />

Total Current Assets 31,542 36,674 37,143 37,845 37,717<br />

Total Assets 73,093 83,945 85,780 87,691 90,972<br />

Shareholders' Equity 24,125 28,328 34,039 40,911 48,834<br />

Total Equity 24,134 28,335 34,047 40,919 48,842<br />

Long Term Debt 12,281 16,158 15,127 11,096 7,064<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 16,756 21,602 20,570 16,539 12,508<br />

Total Current Liabilities 32,204 34,008 31,163 30,232 29,622<br />

Total Liabilities 48,960 55,610 51,733 46,772 42,130<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 73,093 83,945 85,780 87,691 90,972<br />

Cash Flow Statement (Rs m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 5,471 5,565 8,492 10,178 11,943<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 2,719 3,256 3,650 3,785 4,097<br />

Tax Paid (647) (953) (2,165) (2,625) (3,220)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (5,213) (3,100) (2,382) (75) (31)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 4,163 7,593 10,569 13,331 14,232<br />

Capital Expenditure (11,187) (7,930) (3,000) (5,000) (7,500)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 203 (18) 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (10,887) (8,059) (2,949) (4,946) (7,451)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 7,398 3,372 (4,359) (5,633) (5,332)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (441) (293) (293) (397) (478)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 5,155 309 (7,684) (8,144) (7,296)<br />

Change in Cash (1,569) (157) (64) 241 (514)<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 10.9% 9.6% 10.7% 10.4% 10.5%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 7.8% 6.9% 8.1% 8.0% 8.0%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 5.0% 3.4% 4.4% 4.8% 5.1%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 20.1% 15.6% 19.6% 19.6% 18.9%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 10.9% 10.8% 13.3% 14.2% 15.0%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 12.7% 11.1% 13.2% 14.1% 14.7%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 102.8% 101.4% 71.6% 45.8% 27.4%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 94.9% 95.3% 66.7% 41.1% 24.6%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 293.4% 299.4% 272.1% 231.4% 199.1%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.9x 1.3x 1.3x 1.6x 1.9x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 3.8x 3.0x 3.7x 5.8x 9.0x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 5.9% 5.1% 5.3% 6.3% 4.7%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 97.9% 107.8% 119.2% 125.2% 127.3%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 43.5% 49.1% 54.7% 57.9% 58.1%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

29 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Ashok Leyland Ltd. (AL IN)<br />

Sector: Industrials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Capital Goods<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.2x<br />

Country: India<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 71.4%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.7x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Ashok Leyland (the Company) is the flagship of the Hinduja Group, which is a multi-billion dollar<br />

transnational conglomerate. The Company is one of the largest commercial vehicle manufacturers in<br />

India with a market share of 23% as of 31 March 2012. The company also manufactures spare parts and<br />

gensets.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Mar) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Rs m) 1,795 326 381 444 482<br />

Gross Debt (Rs m) 25,683 30,979 32,051 30,296 26,390<br />

Interest Expense (Rs m) (1,542) (2,166) (2,591) (2,817) (2,613)<br />

EBIT (Rs m) 9,463 9,035 9,710 11,778 13,013<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 64.8% 73.6% 71.4% 62.5% 50.5%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 47.2% 42.8% 39.9% 40.5% 43.6%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 2.0x 2.3x 2.4x 2.0x 1.6x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 4.6x 0.6x 1.2x 1.1x 1.2x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 6.1x 4.2x 3.7x 4.2x 5.0x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (Rs m) 110,583 126,420 140,211 162,197 175,702<br />

% Change (YoY) 52.6% 14.3% 10.9% 15.7% 8.3%<br />

EBITDA (Rs m) 12,137 12,564 13,403 15,886 17,191<br />

% of Sales 11.0% 9.9% 9.6% 9.8% 9.8%<br />

Net Income (Rs m) 6,313 5,660 5,629 7,088 7,701<br />

% of Sales 5.7% 4.5% 4.0% 4.4% 4.4%<br />

Free Cash Flow (Rs m) 2,388 4,192 6,856 8,137 10,275<br />

% of Sales 2.2% 3.3% 4.9% 5.0% 5.8%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 5,189 1,795 326 381 444<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2,388 4,192 6,856 8,137 10,275<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 7,577 5,988 7,181 8,517 10,719<br />

Principal Repayments 860 14,317 7,028 8,755 8,806<br />

Interest Payments 1,542 2,166 2,591 2,817 2,613<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 2,402 16,483 9,619 11,573 11,419<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 3.2x 0.4x 0.7x 0.7x 0.9x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In Rs m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 326 0.7%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 44,028 95.7%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 44,353 96.4%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 44,353 96.4%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 46,008 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

27.7% 30.6% 29.4%<br />

72.3% 69.4% 70.6%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(Rs m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 80,752 72,636 72,636<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 30,979 32,051 30,296<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

5.0x<br />

7.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

3.5x<br />

3.2x<br />

3.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EJ257971 Corp At Maturity Secured Rs 2,000.0 2,000.0 100.00 28-Jun-2012 28-Jun-2015 10.10% 1<br />

EJ395815 Corp At Maturity Secured Rs 1,500.0 1,500.0 100.00 14-Oct-2011 14-Oct-2016 10.25% 2<br />

EJ257981 Corp At Maturity Secured Rs 1,000.0 1,000.0 100.00 28-Jun-2012 28-Jun-2017 10.20% 1<br />

30 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (Rs)<br />

2.5x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

37<br />

32<br />

27<br />

22<br />

0.4x<br />

0.7x 0.7x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

17<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Ashok Leyland Ltd.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (Rs m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 110,583 126,420 140,211 162,197 175,702<br />

Operating Expenses (99,634) (115,856) (129,463) (149,237) (161,662)<br />

EBITDA 12,137 12,564 13,403 15,886 17,191<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (2,674) (3,528) (3,693) (4,107) (4,177)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 9,463 9,035 9,710 11,778 13,013<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (1,544) (2,090) (2,904) (2,819) (2,465)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 80 (94) 131 53 111<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 8,018 6,900 7,000 9,012 10,659<br />

Taxes on Profit (1,705) (1,240) (1,371) (1,924) (2,958)<br />

Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 6,313 5,660 5,629 7,088 7,701<br />

Balance Sheet (Rs m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 43,444 45,657 49,830 51,719 53,194<br />

Long-term Investments 1,434 2,024 3,940 4,160 4,270<br />

Associates 10,866 13,320 13,968 14,748 15,138<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 4,467 4,608 4,773 4,768 4,728<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 66,330 76,378 81,039 82,979 83,523<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 38,042 42,713 42,319 43,496 43,715<br />

Total Current Assets 39,838 43,039 42,700 43,940 44,196<br />

Total Assets 106,167 119,416 123,739 126,920 127,719<br />

Shareholders' Equity 39,630 42,082 44,896 48,440 52,291<br />

Total Equity 39,630 42,082 44,896 48,440 52,291<br />

Long Term Debt 23,481 22,934 22,278 20,472 20,710<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 28,939 28,898 28,272 26,497 26,768<br />

Total Current Liabilities 37,599 48,437 50,570 51,983 48,661<br />

Total Liabilities 66,538 77,335 78,843 78,479 75,429<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 106,167 119,416 123,739 126,920 127,719<br />

Cash Flow Statement (Rs m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 8,018 6,900 7,000 9,012 10,659<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 2,674 3,528 3,693 4,107 4,177<br />

Tax Paid (1,503) (1,500) (1,371) (1,924) (2,958)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (4,914) 218 1,478 (595) 1,223<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 5,914 11,171 13,356 13,137 15,275<br />

Capital Expenditure (3,526) (6,978) (6,500) (5,000) (5,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (9,013) (2,959) (2,500) (1,000) (500)<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (9,177) (10,575) (8,689) (5,686) (5,174)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 3,733 3,150 1,072 (1,755) (3,906)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (2,327) (3,092) (3,092) (2,814) (3,544)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (136) (2,109) (4,612) (7,387) (10,063)<br />

Change in Cash (3,400) (1,513) 55 64 38<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 11.0% 9.9% 9.6% 9.8% 9.8%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 8.6% 7.1% 6.9% 7.3% 7.4%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 5.7% 4.5% 4.0% 4.4% 4.4%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 16.5% 13.9% 12.9% 15.2% 15.3%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 9.7% 8.1% 8.0% 9.4% 10.2%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 13.4% 12.3% 12.2% 14.2% 14.4%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 64.8% 73.6% 71.4% 62.5% 50.5%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 60.3% 72.8% 70.5% 61.6% 49.5%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 261.1% 276.1% 279.6% 268.6% 252.8%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 4.6x 0.6x 1.2x 1.1x 1.2x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 6.1x 4.2x 3.7x 4.2x 5.0x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 4.8% 0.7% 0.8% 0.9% 1.0%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 106.0% 88.9% 84.4% 84.5% 90.8%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 47.2% 42.8% 39.9% 40.5% 43.6%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

31 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Asian Paints Ltd. (APNT IN)<br />

Sector: Materials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Materials<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 8.9x<br />

Country: India<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 6.8%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 9.9x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Asian Paints Limited (APL) was incorporated in 1942 and currently ranks among the top ten decorative<br />

paint companies in the world. The products of the company are used in the construction (decorative),<br />

automobile and industrial applications. It is a market leader in the decorative paints segment in India.<br />

APL has presence in almost all the categories through its brands namely Royale in the premium<br />

category, Apcolite in the mid-category, Gattu, Tractor, Utsav and 3-Mango etc. in the lower category.<br />

Other businesses of the company are manufacturing of chemicals namely; Phthalic Anhydride and<br />

Pentaerythritol. The company currently has 29 paint manufacturing facilities all over the world and<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Mar) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Rs m) 9,927 9,093 8,999 12,555 18,452<br />

Gross Debt (Rs m) 2,334 3,411 2,414 1,383 351<br />

Interest Expense (Rs m) (232) (404) (506) (364) (321)<br />

EBIT (Rs m) 12,150 13,876 15,748 17,282 19,286<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 10.2% 11.8% 6.8% 3.3% 0.7%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 84.7% 70.8% 69.4% 83.5% 100.2%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x 0.1x 0.0x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 57.2x 29.2x 8.9x 10.5x 12.0x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 52.3x 34.3x 31.1x 47.5x 60.0x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (Rs m) 77,223 96,322 108,477 119,729 132,969<br />

% Change (YoY) 15.6% 24.7% 12.6% 10.4% 11.1%<br />

EBITDA (Rs m) 13,281 15,088 17,262 19,272 21,562<br />

% of Sales 17.2% 15.7% 15.9% 16.1% 16.2%<br />

Net Income (Rs m) 8,432 9,887 10,812 11,978 13,476<br />

% of Sales 10.9% 10.3% 10.0% 10.0% 10.1%<br />

Free Cash Flow (Rs m) 6,064 1,532 5,837 9,376 12,043<br />

% of Sales 7.9% 1.6% 5.4% 7.8% 9.1%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 7,302 9,927 9,093 8,999 12,555<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 6,064 1,532 5,837 9,376 12,043<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 13,365 11,460 14,931 18,374 24,598<br />

Principal Repayments 0 79 997 1,032 1,032<br />

Interest Payments 232 404 506 364 321<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 232 483 1,503 1,396 1,353<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 57.6x 23.7x 9.9x 13.2x 18.2x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In Rs m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 9,093 180.9%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 58,439 1,162.5%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 67,533 1,343.4%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 34 0.7%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 67,567 1,344.1%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 5,027 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

32 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

1.1%<br />

98.9%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(Rs m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 310,972 419,356 419,356<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 3,411 2,414 1,383<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

70.0x<br />

60.0x<br />

60.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

70.0x<br />

60.0x 57.6x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

0.6%<br />

99.4%<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Share Price (Rs)<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

0.3%<br />

99.7%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

50.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

23.7x<br />

9.9x<br />

13.2x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

5,202<br />

4,702<br />

4,202<br />

3,702<br />

3,202<br />

2,702<br />

2,202<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Asian Paints Ltd.<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (Rs m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 77,223 96,322 108,477 119,729 132,969<br />

Operating Expenses (63,942) (81,235) (91,215) (100,457) (111,407)<br />

EBITDA 13,281 15,088 17,262 19,272 21,562<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (1,131) (1,211) (1,513) (1,990) (2,276)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 12,150 13,876 15,748 17,282 19,286<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 31 (39) (22) 64 225<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 386 368 397 531 528<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 12,597 14,541 16,124 17,877 20,040<br />

Taxes on Profit (3,784) (4,335) (4,831) (5,400) (6,002)<br />

Minority Interests (381) (319) (480) (499) (562)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 8,432 9,887 10,812 11,978 13,476<br />

Balance Sheet (Rs m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 12,498 12,340 20,591 25,695 26,513<br />

Long-term Investments 625 697 697 697 697<br />

Associates 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 601 666 572 478 384<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 15,430 23,363 29,350 31,360 32,084<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 20,749 26,505 26,909 29,474 32,546<br />

Total Current Assets 30,676 35,599 35,907 42,029 50,998<br />

Total Assets 46,106 58,962 65,257 73,389 83,083<br />

Shareholders' Equity 21,874 27,485 33,432 40,139 47,686<br />

Total Equity 22,973 28,852 35,279 42,485 50,594<br />

Long Term Debt 581 559 460 362 263<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 2,326 2,405 2,307 2,208 2,110<br />

Total Current Liabilities 20,807 27,705 27,672 28,696 30,379<br />

Total Liabilities 23,133 30,110 29,979 30,904 32,489<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 46,106 58,962 65,257 73,389 83,083<br />

Cash Flow Statement (Rs m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 12,597 14,541 16,124 17,877 20,040<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 1,131 1,211 1,513 1,990 2,276<br />

Tax Paid (3,919) (4,296) (4,928) (5,400) (6,002)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (1,765) (2,795) 650 (884) (903)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 7,625 8,264 13,337 13,376 15,043<br />

Capital Expenditure (1,561) (6,732) (7,500) (4,000) (3,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (3,307) 1,130 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (4,404) (5,121) (6,972) (3,429) (2,311)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 56 970 (997) (1,032) (1,032)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (3,020) (3,679) (4,957) (4,995) (5,481)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (3,345) (3,265) (6,460) (6,391) (6,834)<br />

Change in Cash (124) (123) (95) 3,556 5,898<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 17.2% 15.7% 15.9% 16.1% 16.2%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 15.7% 14.4% 14.5% 14.4% 14.5%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 10.9% 10.3% 10.0% 10.0% 10.1%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 43.3% 40.1% 35.5% 32.6% 30.7%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 29.2% 26.5% 25.5% 25.1% 25.0%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 54.5% 47.7% 40.7% 38.7% 40.9%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 10.2% 11.8% 6.8% 3.3% 0.7%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 215.4% 212.9% 203.9% 188.5% 178.2%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 57.2x 29.2x 8.9x 10.5x 12.0x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 52.3x 34.3x 31.1x 47.5x 60.0x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 30.1% 22.5% 22.2% 33.8% 51.4%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 147.4% 128.5% 129.8% 146.5% 167.9%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 84.7% 70.8% 69.4% 83.5% 100.2%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

33 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


ASM Pacific Technology Ltd. (522 HK)<br />

Sector: Information Technology Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Semiconductors & Semiconductor Debt Service Cover (x) 8.8x<br />

Country: Hong Kong<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 2.9%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 29.1x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Incorporated in 1975, ASM Pacific Technology Limited (ASM) is an investment holding company. The<br />

Company, through its subsidiaries, is engaged in the design, manufacture, marketing and sale of<br />

semiconductor materials and equipment. It is the world’s largest assembly and packaging equipment<br />

supplier for the semiconductor and LED industries.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (HK$ m) 1,978 1,628 3,546 2,724 4,703<br />

Gross Debt (HK$ m) 0 331 194 194 0<br />

Interest Expense (HK$ m) 0 (4) (7) (3) (2)<br />

EBIT (HK$ m) 3,195 2,261 1,182 1,863 2,479<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 0.0% 5.3% 2.9% 2.5% 0.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 175.1% 145.5% 222.3% 200.9% 299.5%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) - 0.1x 0.2x 0.1x 0.0x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1,140,747.0<br />

x 10.1x 8.8x 652.4x 12.1x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 1,065,161.0<br />

x 582.2x 180.0x 533.5x 1,420.0x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (HK$ m) 9,515 12,915 10,597 11,645 13,049<br />

% Change (YoY) 101.1% 35.7% (17.9%) 9.9% 12.1%<br />

EBITDA (HK$ m) 3,422 2,609 1,569 2,278 2,885<br />

% of Sales 36.0% 20.2% 14.8% 19.6% 22.1%<br />

Net Income (HK$ m) 2,876 2,898 956 1,549 2,066<br />

% of Sales 30.2% 22.4% 9.0% 13.3% 15.8%<br />

Free Cash Flow (HK$ m) 2,136 941 2,557 (414) 2,751<br />

% of Sales 22.5% 7.3% 24.1% (3.6%) 21.1%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 1,254 1,978 1,628 3,546 2,724<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2,136 941 2,557 (414) 2,751<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 3,390 2,919 4,184 3,132 5,475<br />

Principal Repayments 0 228 137 0 194<br />

Interest Payments 0 4 7 3 2<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 0 232 144 3 196<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1,130,029<br />

.7x 12.6x 29.1x 897.0x 28.0x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In HK$ m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 1,628 474.6%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 8,842 2,578.1%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 10,469 3,052.8%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 10,469 3,052.8%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 343 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

34 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

0.9%<br />

99.1%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(HK$ m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 34,654 37,497 36,583<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 331 194 194<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

1200000.0x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

1200000.0x 1130029.7<br />

x<br />

1000000.0x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

0.5% 0.5%<br />

99.5% 99.5%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

1000000.0x<br />

800000.0x<br />

600000.0x<br />

400000.0x<br />

200000.0x<br />

800000.0x<br />

600000.0x<br />

400000.0x<br />

200000.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

12.6x 29.1x 897.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

1200000.0x<br />

1000000.0x<br />

800000.0x<br />

600000.0x<br />

400000.0x<br />

200000.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

141<br />

131<br />

121<br />

111<br />

101<br />

91<br />

81<br />

71<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

ASM Pacific Technology Ltd.<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (HK$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 9,515 12,915 10,597 11,645 13,049<br />

Operating Expenses (6,093) (10,307) (9,028) (9,367) (10,164)<br />

EBITDA 3,422 2,609 1,569 2,278 2,885<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (227) (347) (388) (415) (406)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 3,195 2,261 1,182 1,863 2,479<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 6 17 24 34 43<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 1 999 (20) 0 0<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 3,220 3,289 1,186 1,897 2,522<br />

Taxes on Profit (378) (357) (234) (348) (456)<br />

Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items 34 (34) 4 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 2,876 2,898 956 1,549 2,066<br />

Balance Sheet (HK$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 1,459 1,919 2,039 2,123 2,215<br />

Long-term Investments 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Associates 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 0 11 11 11 11<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 1,657 2,471 2,541 2,625 2,717<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 3,982 5,513 3,329 5,468 4,522<br />

Total Current Assets 5,961 7,141 6,875 8,192 9,225<br />

Total Assets 7,617 9,612 9,416 10,816 11,941<br />

Shareholders' Equity 5,140 6,266 6,690 7,795 9,238<br />

Total Equity 5,140 6,266 6,690 7,795 9,238<br />

Long Term Debt 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 1 188 188 188 188<br />

Total Current Liabilities 2,476 3,158 2,538 2,833 2,516<br />

Total Liabilities 2,477 3,346 2,726 3,021 2,703<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 7,617 9,612 9,416 10,816 11,941<br />

Cash Flow Statement (HK$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 3,220 3,289 1,186 1,897 2,522<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 227 347 388 415 406<br />

Tax Paid (90) (655) (419) (377) (424)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (706) (266) 1,887 (1,815) 790<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 2,768 1,696 3,017 86 3,251<br />

Capital Expenditure (632) (756) (460) (500) (500)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 1 470 2 2 2<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (788) (440) (427) (460) (453)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 0 263 (137) 0 (194)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (1,262) (1,901) (528) (445) (623)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (1,262) (1,642) (671) (448) (819)<br />

Change in Cash 718 (386) 1,918 (822) 1,979<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 36.0% 20.2% 14.8% 19.6% 22.1%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 33.6% 17.5% 11.2% 16.0% 19.0%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 30.2% 22.4% 9.0% 13.3% 15.8%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 67.3% 50.8% 14.8% 21.4% 24.3%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 51.7% 26.5% 12.7% 18.8% 22.2%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 106.1% 48.4% 21.9% 33.9% 39.9%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 0.0% 5.3% 2.9% 2.5% 0.0%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 144.9% 151.1% 146.9% 139.7% 133.6%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1,140,747.0x 10.1x 8.8x 652.4x 12.1x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 1,065,161.0x 582.2x 180.0x 533.5x 1,420.0x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 79.9% 51.5% 139.7% 96.1% 187.0%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 240.7% 226.1% 270.9% 289.1% 366.7%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 175.1% 145.5% 222.3% 200.9% 299.5%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

35 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd. (APN SJ)<br />

Sector: Health Care Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology Debt Service Cover (x) 1.2x<br />

Country: South Africa<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 50.5%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 2.0x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd. (Aspen) is the largest pharmaceutical company in Africa, present<br />

across around 100 countries with its base in South Africa (SA). The company is a leading generics<br />

manufacturer in the Southern hemisphere and is one of the top 20 generic manufacturers worldwide and<br />

South Africa’s number one generic brand. It is the leading supplier of generic medicines to both the<br />

private and public sectors in South Africa. Aspen has production capabilities for a wide variety of product<br />

types including tablets, capsules, steriles, injectables, oral contraceptives, penems, nutritional products,<br />

lyophilised vials, cytotoxics, suppositories, vials, form-filled seals, liquids, semi-solids and specialist<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 30 Jun) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (ZAR m) 3,039 3,314 7,555 8,917 13,269<br />

Gross Debt (ZAR m) 9,387 10,381 10,578 8,916 7,253<br />

Interest Expense (ZAR m) (593) (790) (803) (747) (621)<br />

EBIT (ZAR m) 3,344 4,203 4,901 5,733 6,563<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 70.6% 59.7% 50.5% 35.2% 23.7%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 82.2% 97.5% 163.8% 179.3% 211.7%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 2.1x 2.1x 1.9x 1.6x 1.1x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.2x 0.3x 1.2x 2.2x 2.6x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 5.6x 5.3x 6.1x 7.7x 10.6x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (ZAR m) 12,383 15,256 17,940 20,206 22,621<br />

% Change (YoY) 28.7% 23.2% 17.6% 12.6% 12.0%<br />

EBITDA (ZAR m) 3,704 4,668 5,411 6,255 7,101<br />

% of Sales 29.9% 30.6% 30.2% 31.0% 31.4%<br />

Net Income (ZAR m) 2,578 2,818 3,527 4,382 5,291<br />

% of Sales 20.8% 18.5% 19.7% 21.7% 23.4%<br />

Free Cash Flow (ZAR m) 1,606 290 4,046 3,025 6,015<br />

% of Sales 13.0% 1.9% 22.6% 15.0% 26.6%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 2,940 3,039 3,314 7,555 8,917<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 1,606 290 4,046 3,025 6,015<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 4,546 3,329 7,360 10,580 14,933<br />

Principal Repayments 16,097 13,557 2,803 1,662 1,662<br />

Interest Payments 593 790 803 747 621<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 16,690 14,346 3,606 2,409 2,283<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.3x 0.2x 2.0x 4.4x 6.5x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In ZAR m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 3,314 28.9%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 26,675 232.7%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 29,988 261.6%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 2,035 17.8%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 32,023 279.4%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 11,462 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

36 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

15.4%<br />

84.6%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

11.9%<br />

88.1%<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(ZAR m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 57,166 78,021 78,021<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 10,381 10,578 8,916<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

5.0x<br />

4.5x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.5x<br />

3.0x<br />

4.4x<br />

2.5x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.3x 0.2x<br />

2011A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

10.3%<br />

89.7%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

2.5x<br />

9.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

7.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

5.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (ZAr)<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

20,143<br />

18,143<br />

16,143<br />

14,143<br />

12,143<br />

10,143<br />

8,143<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd.<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (ZAR m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 12,383 15,256 17,940 20,206 22,621<br />

Operating Expenses (8,872) (10,807) (12,781) (14,233) (15,837)<br />

EBITDA 3,704 4,668 5,411 6,255 7,101<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (359) (465) (510) (522) (538)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 3,344 4,203 4,901 5,733 6,563<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (430) (492) (345) (57) 306<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 18 (9) 0 0 0<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 2,737 3,440 4,556 5,676 6,869<br />

Taxes on Profit (582) (772) (1,026) (1,289) (1,573)<br />

Minority Interests (11) (9) (4) (4) (5)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 434 159 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 2,578 2,818 3,527 4,382 5,291<br />

Balance Sheet (ZAR m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 3,090 3,111 3,236 3,401 3,589<br />

Long-term Investments 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Associates 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 13,543 17,214 17,140 17,078 17,025<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 17,423 21,287 21,583 21,867 22,135<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 6,335 7,118 7,262 8,933 8,893<br />

Total Current Assets 9,374 10,432 14,817 17,850 22,162<br />

Total Assets 26,797 31,719 36,400 39,717 44,297<br />

Shareholders' Equity 13,064 17,389 20,916 25,298 30,589<br />

Total Equity 13,287 17,398 20,927 25,313 30,608<br />

Long Term Debt 4,249 6,254 7,592 5,930 4,267<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 5,302 7,000 8,338 6,676 5,013<br />

Total Current Liabilities 8,208 7,320 7,135 7,728 8,676<br />

Total Liabilities 13,510 14,320 15,473 14,404 13,689<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 26,797 31,719 36,400 39,717 44,297<br />

Cash Flow Statement (ZAR m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 2,737 3,440 4,556 5,676 6,869<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 359 465 510 522 538<br />

Tax Paid (535) (454) (720) (905) (1,104)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (463) (870) 507 (1,462) 519<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 2,446 2,908 4,846 3,825 6,815<br />

Capital Expenditure (840) (2,618) (800) (800) (800)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (4,764) (26) 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (5,646) (2,656) (800) (800) (800)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 3,568 138 197 (1,662) (1,662)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net (10) 6 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (2) (2) (1) (1) (1)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 3,247 (288) 196 (1,663) (1,663)<br />

Change in Cash 47 (36) 4,242 1,362 4,352<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 29.9% 30.6% 30.2% 31.0% 31.4%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 27.0% 27.5% 27.3% 28.4% 29.0%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 20.8% 18.5% 19.7% 21.7% 23.4%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 21.7% 18.5% 18.4% 19.0% 18.9%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 15.1% 15.3% 15.7% 16.9% 17.8%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 14.9% 14.2% 15.2% 17.5% 19.7%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 70.6% 59.7% 50.5% 35.2% 23.7%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 47.8% 40.6% 14.4% - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 196.3% 192.1% 177.8% 164.7% 150.3%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.2x 0.3x 1.2x 2.2x 2.6x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 5.6x 5.3x 6.1x 7.7x 10.6x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 37.0% 45.3% 105.9% 115.4% 152.9%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 114.2% 142.5% 207.7% 231.0% 255.4%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 82.2% 97.5% 163.8% 179.3% 211.7%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

37 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


ASUSTek Computer Inc. (2357 TT)<br />

Sector: Information Technology Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Technology Hardware & Equipment Debt Service Cover (x) 10.6x<br />

Country: Taiwan<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 2.1%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 31.7x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Asustek is the one of the world's largest manufacturer of motherboards and notebook PCs. Its other<br />

products include graphic cards, desktop PCs, notebook PCs, handheld devices, etc. After its corporate<br />

restructuring, Asustek became a 100% brand company. Initially, the company was engaged in both the<br />

own-brand and ODM/EMS businesses. In January 2008 in order to focus on its branded business, the<br />

Company transferred its computer and non-computer OEM businesses to its spun-off subsidiaries,<br />

Pegatron Corporation and Unihan Corporation, respectively. On June 1, 2010, the Company spun off the<br />

OEM assets and business to Pegatron International Investment Co and Pegatron.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (NT$ m) 52,525 53,142 53,636 64,789 77,188<br />

Gross Debt (NT$ m) 8,020 4,639 2,745 2,156 1,745<br />

Interest Expense (NT$ m) (208) (129) (92) (61) (49)<br />

EBIT (NT$ m) 18,975 18,221 22,714 28,259 34,320<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 7.5% 4.0% 2.1% 1.5% 1.1%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 126.3% 116.8% 130.0% 131.1% 138.4%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.7x 0.3x 0.1x 0.1x 0.1x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 7.9x 4.5x 10.6x 30.5x 47.2x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 91.4x 141.3x 246.1x 461.3x 703.9x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (NT$ m) 429,721 384,112 450,741 511,959 579,189<br />

% Change (YoY) (29.6%) (10.6%) 17.3% 13.6% 13.1%<br />

EBITDA (NT$ m) 24,812 21,013 25,049 30,711 36,864<br />

% of Sales 5.8% 5.5% 5.6% 6.0% 6.4%<br />

Net Income (NT$ m) 16,488 16,578 22,328 25,267 30,431<br />

% of Sales 3.8% 4.3% 5.0% 4.9% 5.3%<br />

Free Cash Flow (NT$ m) 23,783 15,752 9,868 22,652 25,342<br />

% of Sales 5.5% 4.1% 2.2% 4.4% 4.4%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 89,816 52,525 53,142 53,636 64,789<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 23,783 15,752 9,868 22,652 25,342<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 113,600 68,277 63,009 76,288 90,132<br />

Principal Repayments 2,475 3,799 1,894 789 611<br />

Interest Payments 208 129 92 61 49<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 2,683 3,928 1,987 850 660<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 42.3x 17.4x 31.7x 89.7x 136.5x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In NT$ m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 53,142 1,347.0%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 109,690 2,780.5%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 162,832 4,127.5%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 162,832 4,127.5%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 3,945 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

38 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

2.8%<br />

97.2%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

1.1%<br />

98.9%<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(NT$ m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 162,220 245,776 245,776<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 4,639 2,745 2,156<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

35.0x<br />

500.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

400.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

300.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

200.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

100.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

100.0x<br />

90.0x<br />

80.0x<br />

70.0x<br />

60.0x<br />

89.7x<br />

50.0x 42.3x<br />

40.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

31.7x<br />

20.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

17.4x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (NT$)<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

0.9%<br />

99.1%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

383<br />

333<br />

283<br />

233<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

183<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

ASUSTek Computer Inc.<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (NT$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 429,721 384,112 450,741 511,959 579,189<br />

Operating Expenses (404,909) (363,100) (425,692) (481,248) (542,324)<br />

EBITDA 24,812 21,013 25,049 30,711 36,864<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (5,837) (2,792) (2,335) (2,452) (2,544)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 18,975 18,221 22,714 28,259 34,320<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 38 240 426 530 689<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 1,303 1,648 2,606 494 494<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 1,110 25 1,137 1,156 1,182<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 21,426 20,134 26,883 30,439 36,686<br />

Taxes on Profit (3,386) (3,287) (4,420) (5,020) (6,071)<br />

Minority Interests (1,551) (269) (135) (153) (184)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 16,488 16,578 22,328 25,267 30,431<br />

Balance Sheet (NT$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 9,117 10,069 10,173 9,497 8,295<br />

Long-term Investments 7,456 7,741 7,741 7,741 7,741<br />

Associates 22,360 22,745 23,123 23,643 24,175<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 692 2,370 1,932 1,735 1,647<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 41,656 45,739 45,806 45,484 44,764<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 100,925 118,989 127,114 140,852 155,432<br />

Total Current Assets 153,450 172,131 180,750 205,641 232,620<br />

Total Assets 195,106 217,870 226,556 251,125 277,384<br />

Shareholders' Equity 106,044 114,948 128,591 142,158 159,350<br />

Total Equity 106,358 116,175 129,953 143,672 161,047<br />

Long Term Debt 1,457 834 501 317 417<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 3,481 3,887 3,553 3,370 3,470<br />

Total Current Liabilities 85,267 97,808 93,050 104,084 112,868<br />

Total Liabilities 88,748 101,695 96,603 107,453 116,337<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 195,106 217,870 226,556 251,125 277,384<br />

Cash Flow Statement (NT$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 21,426 20,134 26,883 30,439 36,686<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 5,837 2,792 2,335 2,452 2,544<br />

Tax Paid (3,771) (3,750) (4,420) (5,020) (6,071)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (692) (1,520) (11,322) (2,299) (5,285)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 25,542 18,477 12,868 25,052 27,342<br />

Capital Expenditure (1,758) (2,725) (3,000) (2,400) (2,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 2,221 (3,907) 1,257 840 757<br />

Cash Flow from Investing 651 (6,731) (1,793) (1,610) (1,293)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 661 (3,511) (1,894) (589) (411)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net (2,321) (2,609) 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (8,918) (8,638) (8,685) (11,700) (13,240)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (10,570) (13,245) (10,580) (12,289) (13,651)<br />

Change in Cash 15,623 (1,499) 495 11,153 12,398<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 5.8% 5.5% 5.6% 6.0% 6.4%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 4.4% 4.7% 5.0% 5.5% 5.9%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 3.8% 4.3% 5.0% 4.9% 5.3%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 11.8% 15.0% 18.3% 18.7% 20.2%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 6.8% 9.0% 10.5% 12.1% 13.3%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 20.2% 41.0% 41.5% 45.4% 52.3%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 7.5% 4.0% 2.1% 1.5% 1.1%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 202.4% 186.9% 182.5% 176.4% 175.3%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 7.9x 4.5x 10.6x 30.5x 47.2x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 91.4x 141.3x 246.1x 461.3x 703.9x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 49.0% 42.1% 44.8% 50.8% 57.8%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 180.0% 176.0% 194.3% 197.6% 206.1%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 126.3% 116.8% 130.0% 131.1% 138.4%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

39 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


AU Optronics Corp. (2409 TT)<br />

Sector: Information Technology Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Technology Hardware & Equipment Debt Service Cover (x) 0.8x<br />

Country: Taiwan<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 149.7%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.6x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

AU Optronics was incorporated as Acer Display Technology, Inc. (“Acer Display”) under the laws of the<br />

ROC as a company limited by shares in 1996. The shares of Acer Display got listed on the Taiwan Stock<br />

Exchange in September 2000. In May 2001, the Company completed a merger with Unipac pursuant to<br />

which it changed its name to AU Optronics Corp. The Company is engaged in the manufacture of Thin<br />

Film Transistor Liquid Crystal Panels (TFT – LCD) for its end brand customers.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (NT$ m) 89,926 90,922 106,110 119,750 148,815<br />

Gross Debt (NT$ m) 183,516 232,711 257,546 259,196 257,925<br />

Interest Expense (NT$ m) (4,233) (4,876) (6,342) (6,677) (6,175)<br />

EBIT (NT$ m) 10,497 (57,659) (38,743) (7,044) 3,887<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 65.0% 105.2% 149.7% 163.7% 165.5%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 84.7% 75.8% 88.0% 92.3% 109.2%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 1.8x 6.7x 5.8x 3.3x 2.8x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.5x 0.7x 0.8x 1.4x 1.6x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 2.5x - - - 0.6x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (NT$ m) 467,158 379,712 379,834 414,334 431,902<br />

% Change (YoY) 30.0% (18.7%) 0.0% 9.1% 4.2%<br />

EBITDA (NT$ m) 99,632 31,094 42,284 77,475 93,562<br />

% of Sales 21.3% 8.2% 11.1% 18.7% 21.7%<br />

Net Income (NT$ m) 6,693 (61,264) (48,533) (13,535) (2,445)<br />

% of Sales 1.4% (16.1%) (12.8%) (3.3%) (0.6%)<br />

Free Cash Flow (NT$ m) 4,700 (44,824) (8,380) 13,257 31,602<br />

% of Sales 1.0% (11.8%) (2.2%) 3.2% 7.3%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 85,831 89,926 90,922 106,110 119,750<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 4,700 (44,824) (8,380) 13,257 31,602<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 90,532 45,102 82,543 119,367 151,352<br />

Principal Repayments 51,783 39,008 46,433 49,617 52,537<br />

Interest Payments 4,233 4,876 6,342 6,677 6,645<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 56,016 43,884 52,775 56,294 59,182<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.6x 1.0x 1.6x 2.1x 2.6x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In NT$ m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 90,922 31.9%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 102,448 35.9%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 193,370 67.8%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 23,902 8.4%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 217,272 76.2%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 285,124 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

67.0% 69.2% 68.1%<br />

33.0% 30.8% 31.9%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(NT$ m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 114,752 114,752 121,372<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 232,711 257,546 259,196<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

1.8x<br />

3.0x<br />

1.6x<br />

1.4x<br />

2.5x<br />

1.2x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.8x<br />

1.5x<br />

0.6x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

2.5x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EI430341 Corp Convertible Senior Unsecured US$ 800.0 700.0 100.00 13-Oct-2010 13-Oct-2015 0.00% N.A.<br />

40 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (NT$)<br />

2.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

1.6x<br />

1.0x<br />

1.6x<br />

2.1x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

20.98<br />

18.98<br />

16.98<br />

14.98<br />

12.98<br />

10.98<br />

8.98<br />

6.98<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

AU Optronics Corp.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (NT$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 467,158 379,712 379,834 414,334 431,902<br />

Operating Expenses (367,526) (348,618) (337,550) (336,859) (338,340)<br />

EBITDA 99,632 31,094 42,284 77,475 93,562<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (89,136) (88,752) (81,027) (84,519) (89,675)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 10,497 (57,659) (38,743) (7,044) 3,887<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (3,946) (4,473) (5,997) (6,282) (6,175)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 505 (4,940) (4,664) (693) (364)<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 681 (64) 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 8,596 (65,652) (48,572) (13,672) (2,470)<br />

Taxes on Profit (1,188) 4,205 (700) 0 0<br />

Minority Interests (715) 183 739 137 25<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 6,693 (61,264) (48,533) (13,535) (2,445)<br />

Balance Sheet (NT$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 326,860 330,521 295,621 276,158 239,246<br />

Long-term Investments 2,270 1,925 1,925 1,925 1,925<br />

Associates 15,541 15,917 15,917 15,917 15,917<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 14,062 15,428 15,578 15,710 15,824<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 424,330 410,104 366,460 333,441 295,266<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 115,060 111,752 116,531 117,795 127,495<br />

Total Current Assets 204,986 202,674 222,641 237,545 276,310<br />

Total Assets 629,316 612,778 589,101 570,986 571,576<br />

Shareholders' Equity 268,161 205,389 156,856 143,320 140,875<br />

Total Equity 282,325 221,277 172,005 158,333 155,863<br />

Long Term Debt 146,403 178,428 200,078 198,808 191,225<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 157,613 187,321 208,971 207,701 200,118<br />

Total Current Liabilities 189,379 204,180 208,125 204,952 215,595<br />

Total Liabilities 346,991 391,501 417,096 412,653 415,714<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 629,316 612,778 589,101 570,986 571,576<br />

Cash Flow Statement (NT$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 8,596 (65,652) (48,572) (13,672) (2,470)<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 89,136 88,752 81,027 84,519 89,675<br />

Tax Paid (804) (1,173) (700) 0 0<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (2,392) (12,023) 3,487 (6,071) (4,179)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 90,736 14,515 36,509 66,043 84,293<br />

Capital Expenditure (86,035) (59,339) (44,888) (52,786) (52,690)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (1,183) 1,510 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (87,218) (57,829) (44,888) (52,786) (52,690)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (2,940) 45,097 23,567 383 (2,537)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid 0 (3,531) 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 878 45,836 23,567 383 (2,537)<br />

Change in Cash 4,395 2,522 15,188 13,640 29,065<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 21.3% 8.2% 11.1% 18.7% 21.7%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 2.2% (15.2%) (10.2%) (1.7%) 0.9%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 1.4% (16.1%) (12.8%) (3.3%) (0.6%)<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 2.5% (25.9%) (26.8%) (9.0%) (1.7%)<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 1.7% (9.2%) (6.4%) (1.1%) 0.8%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 2.4% (15.9%) (11.6%) (2.3%) 1.4%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 65.0% 105.2% 149.7% 163.7% 165.5%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 33.3% 64.1% 88.1% 88.1% 70.1%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 236.1% 262.3% 331.8% 386.5% 402.0%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.5x 0.7x 0.8x 1.4x 1.6x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 2.5x - - - 0.6x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 47.3% 44.5% 50.9% 58.4% 69.0%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 108.2% 99.3% 107.0% 115.9% 128.2%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 84.7% 75.8% 88.0% 92.3% 109.2%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

41 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Bajaj Auto Ltd. (BJAUT IN)<br />

Sector: Consumer Discretionary Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Automobiles & Components<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 6,809.2x<br />

Country: India<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 2.0%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 9,510.5x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Bajaj Auto Limited manufactures and sells motorcycles and three-wheelers. It is the flagship company of<br />

the Bajaj Group which is one of the prominent business houses in India. The company is the second<br />

largest motorcycle manufacturer in India with a market share of over 32% (as of 31th March 2012).<br />

Besides, in the three-wheeler segment, it had a market share of 39.5% in the domestic market (as of<br />

31th March 2012). The company exports to Africa, the Middle East, Latin America, South East Asia and<br />

South Asia. In the motorcycle segment, the company currently offers brands including Pulsar, Discover,<br />

Avenger, Boxer and Platina. In the three-wheeler segment, the company offers goods carriers and<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Mar) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Rs m) 9,344 27,564 26,719 32,609 39,268<br />

Gross Debt (Rs m) 3,474 1,505 1,505 1,505 1,505<br />

Interest Expense (Rs m) (24) (228) (6) (6) (6)<br />

EBIT (Rs m) 30,547 35,707 36,575 46,161 51,273<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 7.2% 2.5% 2.0% 1.6% 1.3%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 64.0% 96.5% 93.7% 100.3% 109.1%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.3x 0.1x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 6.6x 13.0x 6,809.2x 8,546.5x 9,482.8x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 1,278.1x 156.7x 6,535.0x 8,247.8x 9,161.1x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (Rs m) 159,274 189,455 202,830 235,699 259,745<br />

% Change (YoY) 38.0% 18.9% 7.1% 16.2% 10.2%<br />

EBITDA (Rs m) 31,786 37,175 38,110 47,833 53,073<br />

% of Sales 20.0% 19.6% 18.8% 20.3% 20.4%<br />

Net Income (Rs m) 34,549 30,454 31,212 37,590 41,618<br />

% of Sales 21.7% 16.1% 15.4% 15.9% 16.0%<br />

Free Cash Flow (Rs m) 14,312 28,736 25,664 32,328 35,274<br />

% of Sales 9.0% 15.2% 12.7% 13.7% 13.6%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 17,531 9,344 27,564 26,719 32,609<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 14,312 28,736 25,664 32,328 35,274<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 31,844 38,080 53,228 59,046 67,883<br />

Principal Repayments 3,681 1,970 0 0 0<br />

Interest Payments 24 228 6 6 6<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 3,705 2,198 6 6 6<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 8.6x 17.3x 9,510.5x 10,550.0x 12,129.0x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In Rs m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 27,564 98,500.6%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 174,586 623,876.8%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 202,150 722,377.4%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 202,150 722,377.4%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 28 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

42 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

0.3%<br />

99.7%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(Rs m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 485,789 637,259 637,259<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 1,505 1,505 1,505<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

9000.0x<br />

9000.0x<br />

8000.0x<br />

8000.0x<br />

7000.0x<br />

7000.0x<br />

6000.0x<br />

6000.0x<br />

5000.0x<br />

5000.0x<br />

4000.0x<br />

4000.0x<br />

3000.0x<br />

3000.0x<br />

2000.0x<br />

2000.0x<br />

1000.0x<br />

1000.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

12000.0x<br />

10000.0x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

8000.0x<br />

6000.0x<br />

4000.0x<br />

0.2% 0.2%<br />

99.8% 99.8%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

9510.5x<br />

2000.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

8.6x 17.3x<br />

2011A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Share Price (Rs)<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

10550.0x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

2,609<br />

2,409<br />

2,209<br />

2,009<br />

1,809<br />

1,609<br />

1,409<br />

1,209<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Bajaj Auto Ltd.<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (Rs m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 159,274 189,455 202,830 235,699 259,745<br />

Operating Expenses (132,505) (158,772) (170,657) (195,040) (214,632)<br />

EBITDA 31,786 37,175 38,110 47,833 53,073<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (1,239) (1,467) (1,535) (1,672) (1,800)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 30,547 35,707 36,575 46,161 51,273<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 3,087 2,769 3,689 3,927 4,961<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 2,056 2,642 3,000 2,800 2,800<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 44,380 40,131 43,264 52,888 59,034<br />

Taxes on Profit (10,063) (10,197) (12,418) (15,686) (17,827)<br />

Minority Interests 1 1 0 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items 231 519 366 388 411<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 34,549 30,454 31,212 37,590 41,618<br />

Balance Sheet (Rs m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 14,824 14,833 16,589 17,340 18,450<br />

Long-term Investments 30,836 27,668 42,367 56,738 71,108<br />

Associates 4,405 6,094 6,460 6,847 7,258<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 3,728 4,666 4,666 4,666 4,666<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 61,155 59,582 76,448 91,910 107,735<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 21,288 24,478 25,505 27,401 28,830<br />

Total Current Assets 30,632 52,042 52,223 60,011 68,099<br />

Total Assets 91,788 111,624 128,671 151,921 175,833<br />

Shareholders' Equity 48,072 60,817 76,423 95,218 116,027<br />

Total Equity 48,075 60,819 76,425 95,220 116,029<br />

Long Term Debt 1,339 975 975 975 975<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 4,828 4,162 4,162 4,162 4,162<br />

Total Current Liabilities 38,884 46,644 48,085 52,539 55,643<br />

Total Liabilities 43,712 50,805 52,246 56,701 59,804<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 91,788 111,624 128,671 151,921 175,833<br />

Cash Flow Statement (Rs m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 44,380 40,131 43,264 52,888 59,034<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 1,239 1,467 1,535 1,672 1,800<br />

Tax Paid (9,719) (11,473) (12,293) (15,529) (17,649)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (7,925) 1,074 (28) (665) (362)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 16,394 30,130 29,164 34,828 38,274<br />

Capital Expenditure (2,081) (1,394) (3,500) (2,500) (3,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (7,291) (7,669) (20,351) (20,358) (20,381)<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (6,270) (6,133) (20,156) (18,925) (18,415)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (1,868) (1,970) 0 0 0<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (6,737) (13,420) (15,134) (15,606) (18,795)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (8,709) (14,624) (15,139) (15,612) (18,801)<br />

Change in Cash 1,414 9,373 (6,132) 291 1,059<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 20.0% 19.6% 18.8% 20.3% 20.4%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 19.2% 18.8% 18.0% 19.6% 19.7%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 21.7% 16.1% 15.4% 15.9% 16.0%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 91.8% 55.9% 45.5% 43.8% 39.4%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 41.8% 38.1% 33.5% 35.7% 34.3%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 242.6% 363.9% 534.6% 699.2% 1,052.1%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 7.2% 2.5% 2.0% 1.6% 1.3%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 2.1% - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 214.3% 186.8% 175.1% 163.5% 155.2%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 6.6x 13.0x 6,809.2x 8,546.5x 9,482.8x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 1,278.1x 156.7x 6,535.0x 8,247.8x 9,161.1x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 6.4% 35.6% 21.8% 20.5% 21.2%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 78.8% 111.6% 108.6% 114.2% 122.4%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 64.0% 96.5% 93.7% 100.3% 109.1%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

43 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Beijing Enterprises Holdings Ltd. (392 HK)<br />

Sector: Industrials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Capital Goods<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.6x<br />

Country: Hong Kong<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 55.6%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 2.1x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Beijing Enterprises Holdings Limited (BEH) is an investment holding company with diversified interests.<br />

The Company is engaged in the distribution and sale of natural gas, sale of beer, operation of toll roads,<br />

construction and operation of sewage and water treatment plants and provision of electronic payment<br />

systems.<br />

The shares of the company are listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange (392 HK).<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (HK$ m) 14,573 12,616 18,438 18,268 16,819<br />

Gross Debt (HK$ m) 12,490 20,248 26,729 25,498 22,657<br />

Interest Expense (HK$ m) (332) (620) (1,087) (1,215) (1,167)<br />

EBIT (HK$ m) 2,425 2,110 2,791 3,524 3,963<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 30.5% 44.8% 55.6% 49.4% 40.7%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 122.1% 111.8% 133.8% 129.6% 116.2%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 3.0x 4.2x 4.9x 4.6x 3.9x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.6x 0.8x 0.6x 0.7x 0.6x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 7.3x 3.4x 2.6x 2.9x 3.4x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (HK$ m) 27,613 30,472 35,462 40,228 45,242<br />

% Change (YoY) 14.1% 10.4% 16.4% 13.4% 12.5%<br />

EBITDA (HK$ m) 3,914 3,884 4,808 5,643 6,147<br />

% of Sales 14.2% 12.7% 13.6% 14.0% 13.6%<br />

Net Income (HK$ m) 2,639 2,776 3,135 3,722 4,238<br />

% of Sales 9.6% 9.1% 8.8% 9.3% 9.4%<br />

Free Cash Flow (HK$ m) 3,143 (5,250) 1,469 3,421 3,795<br />

% of Sales 11.4% (17.2%) 4.1% 8.5% 8.4%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 9,604 14,573 12,616 18,438 18,268<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 3,143 (5,250) 1,469 3,421 3,795<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 12,747 9,322 14,085 21,859 22,064<br />

Principal Repayments 4,783 3,890 5,705 6,239 7,850<br />

Interest Payments 332 620 1,087 1,215 1,167<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 5,116 4,510 6,792 7,454 9,017<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 2.5x 2.1x 2.1x 2.9x 2.4x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In HK$ m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 12,616 35.2%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 18,060 50.4%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 30,676 85.7%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 30,676 85.7%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 35,799 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

27.6% 31.8% 30.6%<br />

72.4% 68.2% 69.4%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(HK$ m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 53,011 57,447 57,789<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 20,248 26,729 25,498<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

0.8x<br />

8.0x<br />

0.7x<br />

7.0x<br />

0.6x<br />

6.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

5.0x<br />

0.4x<br />

4.0x<br />

0.3x<br />

3.0x<br />

0.2x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.1x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

3.5x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EJ138000 Corp At Maturity Company Guarantee US$ 800.0 800.0 99.32 25-Apr-2012 25-Apr-2022 4.50% 2<br />

EI667830 Corp At Maturity Company Guarantee US$ 600.0 600.0 98.99 12-May-2011 12-May-2021 5.00% 2<br />

EI659944 Corp At Maturity Company Guarantee US$ 400.0 400.0 99.59 12-May-2011 12-May-2041 6.38% 2<br />

44 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

3.0x<br />

2.5x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

65<br />

60<br />

55<br />

50<br />

45<br />

40<br />

2.5x<br />

2.1x 2.1x<br />

2.9x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

35<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Beijing Enterprises Holdings Ltd.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (HK$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 27,613 30,472 35,462 40,228 45,242<br />

Operating Expenses (23,699) (26,588) (30,654) (34,585) (39,095)<br />

EBITDA 3,914 3,884 4,808 5,643 6,147<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (1,489) (1,774) (2,017) (2,119) (2,184)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 2,425 2,110 2,791 3,524 3,963<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (282) (495) (893) (989) (952)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 286 961 508 445 486<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 1,365 1,674 2,330 2,672 2,963<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 3,795 4,249 4,736 5,652 6,460<br />

Taxes on Profit (685) (583) (611) (755) (884)<br />

Minority Interests (470) (889) (990) (1,175) (1,338)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 2,639 2,776 3,135 3,722 4,238<br />

Balance Sheet (HK$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 19,496 23,759 25,568 26,843 27,903<br />

Long-term Investments 1,005 917 917 917 917<br />

Associates 9,212 12,785 15,115 17,787 20,750<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 7,260 7,477 7,483 7,486 7,488<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 45,249 53,857 58,188 61,759 65,558<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 7,207 10,882 11,450 11,575 12,139<br />

Total Current Assets 21,780 23,498 29,888 29,844 28,958<br />

Total Assets 67,029 77,355 88,075 91,603 94,516<br />

Shareholders' Equity 34,268 37,610 39,934 42,791 46,152<br />

Total Equity 40,936 45,197 48,086 51,612 55,736<br />

Long Term Debt 10,170 14,543 20,490 19,823 17,482<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 11,302 15,872 21,826 21,167 18,833<br />

Total Current Liabilities 14,791 16,287 18,164 18,824 19,947<br />

Total Liabilities 26,093 32,159 39,990 39,991 38,780<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 67,029 77,355 88,075 91,603 94,516<br />

Cash Flow Statement (HK$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 3,795 4,249 4,736 5,652 6,460<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 1,489 1,774 2,017 2,119 2,184<br />

Tax Paid (581) (868) (683) (728) (834)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (2,229) 4,428 321 (41) 141<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 6,942 (926) 5,489 6,441 6,815<br />

Capital Expenditure (3,799) (4,324) (4,020) (3,020) (3,020)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (3,042) (2,660) 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (8,812) (6,833) (3,829) (2,794) (2,804)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 7,285 (111) 295 (1,239) (2,850)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 (1) 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (796) (796) (801) (857) (868)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 6,194 5,850 4,162 (3,817) (5,461)<br />

Change in Cash 4,324 (1,909) 5,822 (170) (1,450)<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 14.2% 12.7% 13.6% 14.0% 13.6%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 8.8% 6.9% 7.9% 8.8% 8.8%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 9.6% 9.1% 8.8% 9.3% 9.4%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 8.0% 7.7% 8.1% 9.0% 9.5%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 4.0% 3.1% 3.6% 4.2% 4.5%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 6.1% 5.2% 5.9% 7.3% 8.3%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 30.5% 44.8% 55.6% 49.4% 40.7%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - 17.0% 17.3% 14.1% 10.5%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 192.4% 200.9% 213.3% 217.2% 209.3%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.6x 0.8x 0.6x 0.7x 0.6x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 7.3x 3.4x 2.6x 2.9x 3.4x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 97.7% 77.2% 101.3% 96.9% 84.1%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 147.3% 144.3% 164.5% 158.5% 145.2%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 122.1% 111.8% 133.8% 129.6% 116.2%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

45 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Belle International Holdings Limited (1880 HK)<br />

Sector: Consumer Discretionary Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Retailing<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 6.8x<br />

Country: Hong Kong<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 9.4%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 13.6x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Belle International Holdings Limited and its subsidiaries are engaged in the manufacturing, distribution<br />

and retail sales of shoes and footwear products and sales of sportswear products. The group has its<br />

manufacturing plants in the People’s Republic of China, for the production of shoes and footwears. It<br />

sells its products mainly in China, Hong Kong and Macau through about 45 directly and indirectly held<br />

subsidiaries.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (RMB m) 5,791 6,751 9,294 11,992 15,958<br />

Gross Debt (RMB m) 681 1,895 2,172 2,004 1,878<br />

Interest Expense (RMB m) (2) (19) (61) (52) (49)<br />

EBIT (RMB m) 3,952 5,269 6,058 7,336 8,800<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 4.0% 9.7% 9.4% 7.4% 5.8%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 269.2% 193.8% 211.3% 232.8% 266.9%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.2x 0.2x 0.3x 0.2x 0.2x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 11.6x 25.3x 6.8x 9.0x 11.5x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 2,296.6x 280.9x 99.3x 140.6x 181.4x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (RMB m) 23,706 28,945 33,797 39,969 46,807<br />

% Change (YoY) 20.0% 22.1% 16.8% 18.3% 17.1%<br />

EBITDA (RMB m) 4,645 6,033 6,940 8,454 10,155<br />

% of Sales 19.6% 20.8% 20.5% 21.2% 21.7%<br />

Net Income (RMB m) 3,425 4,255 4,817 5,770 6,947<br />

% of Sales 14.4% 14.7% 14.3% 14.4% 14.8%<br />

Free Cash Flow (RMB m) 1,410 1,334 3,901 4,125 5,557<br />

% of Sales 5.9% 4.6% 11.5% 10.3% 11.9%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 5,792 5,791 6,751 9,294 11,992<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 1,410 1,334 3,901 4,125 5,557<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 7,203 7,125 10,651 13,418 17,549<br />

Principal Repayments 330 170 724 668 626<br />

Interest Payments 2 19 61 52 49<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 332 189 785 720 674<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 21.7x 37.7x 13.6x 18.6x 26.0x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In RMB m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 6,751 196.6%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 28,656 834.5%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 35,407 1,031.0%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 35,407 1,031.0%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 3,434 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

46 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

2.0%<br />

98.0%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(RMB m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 92,552 114,047 117,834<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 1,895 2,172 2,004<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

30.0x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

40.0x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

1.9%<br />

98.1%<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

1.7%<br />

98.3%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

25.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

2500.0x<br />

2000.0x<br />

1500.0x<br />

1000.0x<br />

500.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

35.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

19.83<br />

17.83<br />

15.83<br />

13.83<br />

11.83<br />

21.7x<br />

37.7x<br />

13.6x<br />

18.6x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

9.83<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Belle International Holdings Limited<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (RMB m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 23,706 28,945 33,797 39,969 46,807<br />

Operating Expenses (19,090) (23,026) (26,987) (31,645) (36,782)<br />

EBITDA 4,645 6,033 6,940 8,454 10,155<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (693) (763) (882) (1,119) (1,355)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 3,952 5,269 6,058 7,336 8,800<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 131 175 195 293 400<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 93 37 30 30 30<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 6 1 1<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 4,125 5,471 6,290 7,661 9,232<br />

Taxes on Profit (701) (1,232) (1,511) (1,885) (2,278)<br />

Minority Interests 0 16 38 (6) (7)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 3,425 4,255 4,817 5,770 6,947<br />

Balance Sheet (RMB m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 2,253 2,663 2,934 2,996 2,835<br />

Long-term Investments 114 11 512 511 510<br />

Associates 0 62 68 69 70<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 3,342 3,608 3,687 3,763 3,835<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 6,658 7,865 8,824 9,049 9,041<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 8,383 11,065 11,977 14,285 16,161<br />

Total Current Assets 14,174 17,816 21,271 26,277 32,118<br />

Total Assets 20,832 25,681 30,095 35,326 41,159<br />

Shareholders' Equity 17,115 19,424 22,891 27,082 32,133<br />

Total Equity 17,115 19,594 23,023 27,220 32,278<br />

Long Term Debt 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 257 258 258 258 258<br />

Total Current Liabilities 3,460 5,830 6,814 7,848 8,623<br />

Total Liabilities 3,717 6,087 7,072 8,106 8,881<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 20,832 25,681 30,095 35,326 41,159<br />

Cash Flow Statement (RMB m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 4,125 5,471 6,290 7,661 9,232<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 693 763 882 1,119 1,355<br />

Tax Paid (401) (771) (1,034) (1,340) (1,678)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (1,648) (2,277) (739) (1,719) (1,650)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 2,649 3,031 5,209 5,433 6,865<br />

Capital Expenditure (1,239) (1,697) (1,308) (1,308) (1,308)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 1,006 (225) (1,580) 62 50<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (232) (1,922) (2,888) (1,246) (1,258)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (424) 1,277 276 (168) (126)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (1,603) (1,940) (1,350) (1,579) (1,896)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (1,915) (382) (878) (1,453) (1,622)<br />

Change in Cash 502 728 1,442 2,734 3,986<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 19.6% 20.8% 20.5% 21.2% 21.7%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 16.7% 18.2% 17.9% 18.4% 18.8%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 14.4% 14.7% 14.3% 14.4% 14.8%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 21.1% 23.3% 22.8% 23.1% 23.5%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 20.7% 23.5% 22.6% 23.5% 24.2%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 28.5% 30.2% 30.2% 34.0% 38.1%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 4.0% 9.7% 9.4% 7.4% 5.8%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 121.6% 127.3% 131.8% 130.9% 129.2%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 11.6x 25.3x 6.8x 9.0x 11.5x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 2,296.6x 280.9x 99.3x 140.6x 181.4x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 62.8% 49.5% 63.5% 90.0% 128.1%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 409.6% 305.6% 312.2% 334.8% 372.5%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 269.2% 193.8% 211.3% 232.8% 266.9%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

47 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Bharat Forge (BHFC IN)<br />

Sector: Consumer Discretionary Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Automobiles & Components<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.8x<br />

Country: India<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 96.3%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 2.8x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Bharat Forge Limited (BFL) is an Indian multinational and the flagship company of the US$ 2.5 billion<br />

forging conglomerate - the Kalyani Group. The company is the largest exporter of auto components from<br />

India and leading chassis component manufacturer in the world. A technology driven global leader, endto-end<br />

capability and manufacturing footprint across India, Germany, Sweden, US & China, the company<br />

manufactures a wide range of highly engineered critical & safety components for several sectors<br />

including automobile, oil & gas, rail & marine, energy (across renewable & non renewable sources),<br />

construction & mining and general engineering.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Mar) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Rs m) 6,390 10,384 8,230 7,477 7,246<br />

Gross Debt (Rs m) 19,014 27,608 25,569 22,706 18,484<br />

Interest Expense (Rs m) (1,487) (1,835) (1,878) (1,683) (1,498)<br />

EBIT (Rs m) 5,330 6,946 8,136 9,478 9,894<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 90.2% 115.7% 96.3% 76.6% 53.6%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 98.9% 82.2% 81.1% 74.5% 80.2%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 2.6x 2.3x 2.3x 1.9x 1.5x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.9x 5.4x 1.8x 1.7x 1.8x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 3.6x 3.8x 4.3x 5.6x 6.6x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (Rs m) 49,686 61,460 67,998 76,828 81,352<br />

% Change (YoY) 52.3% 23.7% 10.6% 13.0% 5.9%<br />

EBITDA (Rs m) 7,880 9,964 11,381 12,919 13,653<br />

% of Sales 15.9% 16.2% 16.7% 16.8% 16.8%<br />

Net Income (Rs m) 2,880 4,130 4,810 5,905 6,297<br />

% of Sales 5.8% 6.7% 7.1% 7.7% 7.7%<br />

Free Cash Flow (Rs m) (1,682) (5,491) 3,307 6,036 6,560<br />

% of Sales (3.4%) (8.9%) 4.9% 7.9% 8.1%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 8,274 6,390 10,384 8,230 7,477<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (1,682) (5,492) 3,307 6,036 6,560<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 6,592 898 13,692 14,267 14,037<br />

Principal Repayments 5,251 0 3,032 4,267 4,222<br />

Interest Payments 1,487 1,835 1,878 1,683 1,498<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 6,738 1,835 4,910 5,950 5,720<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.0x 0.5x 2.8x 2.4x 2.5x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In Rs m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 10,384 40.4%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 31,807 123.8%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 42,191 164.3%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 42,191 164.3%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 25,686 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

27.0% 29.4% 27.0%<br />

73.0% 70.6% 73.0%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(Rs m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 74,506 61,411 61,411<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 27,608 25,569 22,706<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

6.0x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

3.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EH986651 Corp Sink Secured Rs 3,500.0 3,500.0 100.00 22-Sep-2009 22-Mar-2015 10.75% 2<br />

EH737660 Corp Sink Secured Rs 2,500.0 2,500.0 100.00 05-Jan-2009 05-Jan-2017 11.95% 4<br />

EF373146 Corp Convertible Unsecured US$ 39.9 39.9 100.00 28-Apr-2006 28-Apr-2013 0.00% N.A.<br />

48 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (Rs)<br />

5.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

2.5x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

411<br />

361<br />

311<br />

261<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

2.8x<br />

2.4x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

211<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Bharat Forge


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (Rs m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 49,686 61,460 67,998 76,828 81,352<br />

Operating Expenses (42,989) (52,826) (57,738) (65,324) (69,228)<br />

EBITDA 7,880 9,964 11,381 12,919 13,653<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (2,550) (3,018) (3,246) (3,441) (3,759)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 5,330 6,946 8,136 9,478 9,894<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (1,295) (1,189) (1,708) (1,557) (1,388)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 352 195 688 638 638<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 4,365 5,998 7,010 8,559 9,144<br />

Taxes on Profit (1,397) (1,796) (2,121) (2,573) (2,763)<br />

Minority Interests (68) (69) (78) (81) (85)<br />

Other Post-tax Items (21) (3) 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 2,880 4,130 4,810 5,905 6,297<br />

Balance Sheet (Rs m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 24,466 26,210 27,189 29,006 30,284<br />

Long-term Investments 186 203 203 203 203<br />

Associates 1 0 0 0 0<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 535 762 773 796 806<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 30,899 38,610 38,395 39,454 40,194<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 19,915 25,285 25,408 25,597 25,830<br />

Total Current Assets 26,306 35,670 33,638 33,075 33,076<br />

Total Assets 57,205 74,279 72,033 72,528 73,270<br />

Shareholders' Equity 19,529 21,902 24,516 27,541 32,264<br />

Total Equity 21,072 23,860 26,552 29,658 34,465<br />

Long Term Debt 15,145 19,209 16,435 12,281 10,364<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 17,731 21,887 19,113 14,959 13,042<br />

Total Current Liabilities 18,402 28,533 26,368 27,911 25,763<br />

Total Liabilities 36,133 50,420 45,482 42,870 38,805<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 57,205 74,280 72,033 72,528 73,270<br />

Cash Flow Statement (Rs m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 4,365 5,998 7,010 8,559 9,144<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 2,550 3,018 3,246 3,441 3,759<br />

Tax Paid (567) (1,710) (2,052) (2,521) (2,739)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (4,090) (1,488) (3,288) (181) (169)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 3,407 7,029 6,307 10,536 11,060<br />

Capital Expenditure (5,089) (12,520) (3,000) (4,500) (4,500)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 788 1,424 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (4,004) (10,526) (2,592) (4,136) (4,151)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (3,541) 8,594 (3,032) (4,267) (4,222)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 2,775 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (272) (1,343) (1,037) (1,285) (1,506)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (1,416) 6,251 (5,869) (7,153) (7,141)<br />

Change in Cash (2,013) 2,755 (2,154) (753) (232)<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 15.9% 16.2% 16.7% 16.8% 16.8%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 10.7% 11.3% 12.0% 12.3% 12.2%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 5.8% 6.7% 7.1% 7.7% 7.7%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 16.9% 19.9% 20.7% 22.7% 21.1%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 9.8% 11.0% 11.4% 13.3% 13.7%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 10.7% 12.2% 12.6% 14.1% 14.5%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 90.2% 115.7% 96.3% 76.6% 53.6%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 71.4% 87.6% 79.1% 63.7% 43.2%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 325.0% 317.4% 315.2% 277.7% 243.8%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.9x 5.4x 1.8x 1.7x 1.8x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 3.6x 3.8x 4.3x 5.6x 6.6x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 21.5% 23.5% 17.3% 13.7% 13.9%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 143.0% 125.0% 127.6% 118.5% 128.4%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 98.9% 82.2% 81.1% 74.5% 80.2%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

49 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd. (BHEL IN)<br />

Sector: Industrials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Capital Goods<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 81.1x<br />

Country: India<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 1.4%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 53.9x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited is a state owned engineering company in the energy related<br />

infrastructure sector. The company delivers capital goods to the core sectors of the Indian Economy<br />

such as Power Generation and Transmission, Industry, Transportation and Renewable Energy. The<br />

operations of the company are organized into two broad segments, via, Power and Industry. The<br />

company manufactures a wide range of products and systems for thermal, nuclear, gas and hydro-based<br />

utility power plants. It also has presence in select segments of the Industrial sector for which it<br />

manufactures a variety of electrical, electronic and mechanical equipment.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Mar) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Rs m) 97,064 67,343 34,783 68,199 102,033<br />

Gross Debt (Rs m) 2,517 4,315 4,142 3,968 3,795<br />

Interest Expense (Rs m) (653) (508) (803) (796) (777)<br />

EBIT (Rs m) 74,053 84,110 77,155 67,204 61,539<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 1.2% 1.7% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 129.4% 122.0% 139.8% 162.3% 182.7%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.1x 0.1x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 121.8x 181.6x 81.1x 73.4x 69.4x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 113.4x 165.7x 96.1x 84.4x 79.2x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (Rs m) 418,547 475,990 471,875 465,685 458,973<br />

% Change (YoY) 26.2% 13.7% (0.9%) (1.3%) (1.4%)<br />

EBITDA (Rs m) 79,516 92,142 85,621 76,893 71,390<br />

% of Sales 19.0% 19.4% 18.1% 16.5% 15.6%<br />

Net Income (Rs m) 60,534 70,874 62,587 55,737 53,366<br />

% of Sales 14.5% 14.9% 13.3% 12.0% 11.6%<br />

Free Cash Flow (Rs m) 5,130 (22,861) (14,749) 48,563 46,371<br />

% of Sales 1.2% (4.8%) (3.1%) 10.4% 10.1%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 98,564 97,064 67,343 34,783 68,199<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 5,130 (22,861) (14,749) 48,563 46,371<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 103,694 74,203 52,595 83,347 114,571<br />

Principal Repayments 0 0 174 174 174<br />

Interest Payments 653 508 803 796 777<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 653 508 976 969 950<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 158.8x 146.2x 53.9x 86.0x 120.6x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In Rs m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 67,343 1,429.8%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 203,037 4,310.8%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 270,381 5,740.6%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 270,381 5,740.6%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 4,710 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

50 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

0.7% 0.7% 0.7%<br />

99.3% 99.3% 99.3%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(Rs m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 629,400 582,651 582,651<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 4,315 4,142 3,968<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

200.0x<br />

180.0x<br />

160.0x<br />

150.0x<br />

140.0x<br />

120.0x<br />

100.0x<br />

100.0x<br />

80.0x<br />

60.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

180.0x<br />

160.0x<br />

140.0x<br />

120.0x<br />

158.8x<br />

146.2x<br />

100.0x<br />

80.0x<br />

86.0x<br />

60.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

53.9x<br />

2011A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (Rs)<br />

368<br />

318<br />

268<br />

218<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

168<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd.<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (Rs m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 418,547 475,990 471,875 465,685 458,973<br />

Operating Expenses (339,030) (383,847) (386,254) (388,792) (387,583)<br />

EBITDA 79,516 92,142 85,621 76,893 71,390<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (5,464) (8,032) (8,466) (9,689) (9,850)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 74,053 84,110 77,155 67,204 61,539<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 5,760 7,672 2,772 2,808 5,181<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 10,721 11,849 11,179 10,960 10,744<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 90,654 103,672 91,105 80,972 77,465<br />

Taxes on Profit (30,120) (32,800) (28,518) (25,235) (24,099)<br />

Minority Interests 0 2 0 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 60,534 70,874 62,587 55,737 53,366<br />

Balance Sheet (Rs m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 32,882 41,967 61,834 54,145 46,294<br />

Long-term Investments 113 59 59 59 59<br />

Associates 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 3,319 3,462 3,295 3,095 2,862<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 160,293 183,399 188,047 180,158 172,074<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 338,820 423,560 437,960 430,927 428,544<br />

Total Current Assets 435,885 490,904 472,744 499,126 530,578<br />

Total Assets 596,178 674,303 660,791 679,285 702,652<br />

Shareholders' Equity 201,550 254,031 298,467 336,647 372,403<br />

Total Equity 201,550 254,080 298,517 336,697 372,452<br />

Long Term Debt 1,024 2,821 2,821 2,821 2,821<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 142,053 128,669 116,592 112,836 110,174<br />

Total Current Liabilities 252,575 291,554 245,682 229,752 220,026<br />

Total Liabilities 394,628 420,223 362,274 342,588 330,200<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 596,178 674,303 660,791 679,285 702,652<br />

Cash Flow Statement (Rs m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 90,654 103,672 91,105 80,972 77,465<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 5,464 8,032 8,466 9,689 9,850<br />

Tax Paid (29,415) (31,971) (25,019) (26,614) (24,224)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (40,306) (85,229) (81,880) (18,136) (15,868)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 26,991 (7,006) (499) 50,813 48,621<br />

Capital Expenditure (21,861) (15,855) (14,250) (2,250) (2,250)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 11 74 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (14,392) (5,815) (10,634) 1,396 3,750<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 1,292 1,798 (174) (174) (174)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (14,738) (18,189) (20,451) (17,824) (17,587)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (14,099) (16,899) (21,427) (18,793) (18,537)<br />

Change in Cash (1,500) (29,721) (32,560) 33,416 33,834<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 19.0% 19.4% 18.1% 16.5% 15.6%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 17.7% 17.7% 16.4% 14.4% 13.4%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 14.5% 14.9% 13.3% 12.0% 11.6%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 33.6% 31.1% 22.7% 17.6% 15.1%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 14.8% 14.5% 12.1% 10.6% 9.8%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 27.8% 20.4% 15.2% 12.1% 11.1%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 1.2% 1.7% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 300.5% 278.9% 241.6% 211.0% 194.9%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 121.8x 181.6x 81.1x 73.4x 69.4x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 113.4x 165.7x 96.1x 84.4x 79.2x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 38.4% 23.1% 14.2% 29.7% 46.4%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 172.6% 168.4% 192.4% 217.2% 241.1%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 129.4% 122.0% 139.8% 162.3% 182.7%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

51 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Bharat Petroleum Corp. Ltd. (BPCL IN)<br />

Sector: Energy Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Energy<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.0x<br />

Country: India<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 200.1%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 3.0x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) is one of the largest oil marketing companies in India. Its<br />

primary business is refining and retailing of petroleum products in India. The company markets a diverse<br />

range of products like petrochemicals, solvents, speciality lubricants, aviation fuel and LPG, through its<br />

wide network of fuel stations, kerosene dealers and LPG distributors spread across India.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Mar) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Rs m) 127,525 165,127 169,214 163,816 159,731<br />

Gross Debt (Rs m) 250,384 301,531 357,605 368,680 391,297<br />

Interest Expense (Rs m) (13,967) (21,940) (21,422) (23,604) (24,699)<br />

EBIT (Rs m) 25,469 24,018 28,112 32,788 35,974<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 153.2% 178.3% 200.1% 194.8% 194.5%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 41.3% 44.4% 41.6% 40.3% 39.8%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 5.8x 5.7x 5.9x 5.8x 5.6x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.5x 0.6x 1.0x 0.9x 1.3x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 1.8x 1.1x 1.3x 1.4x 1.5x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (Rs m) 1,537,649 2,121,396 2,470,313 2,434,060 2,503,817<br />

% Change (YoY) 24.2% 38.0% 16.4% (1.5%) 2.9%<br />

EBITDA (Rs m) 44,383 48,127 56,141 62,955 67,544<br />

% of Sales 2.9% 2.3% 2.3% 2.6% 2.7%<br />

Net Income (Rs m) 16,350 7,808 13,793 15,270 17,360<br />

% of Sales 1.1% 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7%<br />

Free Cash Flow (Rs m) (6,296) (23,108) (31,259) 6,557 (1,786)<br />

% of Sales (0.4%) (1.1%) (1.3%) 0.3% (0.1%)<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 138,107 127,525 165,127 169,214 163,816<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (6,296) (23,108) (31,259) 6,557 (1,786)<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 131,811 104,417 133,867 175,771 162,030<br />

Principal Repayments 9,698 29,358 23,925 28,925 17,383<br />

Interest Payments 13,967 21,940 21,422 23,604 24,699<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 23,665 51,298 45,347 52,529 42,082<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 5.6x 2.0x 3.0x 3.3x 3.9x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In Rs m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 165,127 65.3%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 27,699 10.9%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 192,826 76.2%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 192,826 76.2%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 253,010 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

52 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

54.4% 57.4% 58.2%<br />

45.6% 42.6% 41.8%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(Rs m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 253,170 264,974 264,974<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 301,531 357,605 368,680<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

1.6x<br />

1.4x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.2x<br />

1.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

0.8x<br />

0.6x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

6.0x 5.6x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

5.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Share Price (Rs)<br />

445<br />

395<br />

345<br />

295<br />

245<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

3.3x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

195<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Bharat Petroleum Corp. Ltd.<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (Rs m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 1,537,649 2,121,396 2,470,313 2,434,060 2,503,817<br />

Operating Expenses (1,493,266) (2,073,269) (2,414,171) (2,371,104) (2,436,274)<br />

EBITDA 44,383 48,127 56,141 62,955 67,544<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (18,914) (24,108) (28,029) (30,167) (31,569)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 25,469 24,018 28,112 32,788 35,974<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (1,742) (7,658) (15,009) (17,230) (18,641)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 4,568 (792) 8,625 8,498 10,015<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 28,295 15,994 21,729 24,056 27,349<br />

Taxes on Profit (10,874) (7,482) (7,040) (7,794) (8,861)<br />

Minority Interests (1,071) (705) (896) (992) (1,128)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 16,350 7,808 13,793 15,270 17,360<br />

Balance Sheet (Rs m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 189,764 242,326 259,735 251,564 242,033<br />

Long-term Investments 17,939 18,575 18,575 18,575 18,575<br />

Associates 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 6,842 7,581 7,682 7,826 7,929<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 317,489 333,949 351,920 375,752 398,183<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 222,895 279,060 315,574 333,205 345,070<br />

Total Current Assets 350,420 444,187 484,787 497,020 504,801<br />

Total Assets 667,909 778,136 836,707 872,773 902,984<br />

Shareholders' Equity 153,508 158,799 167,973 178,100 189,571<br />

Total Equity 163,483 169,151 178,681 189,232 201,227<br />

Long Term Debt 75,360 61,891 71,176 94,003 111,509<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 96,904 84,104 93,389 116,216 133,722<br />

Total Current Liabilities 407,521 524,882 564,638 567,325 568,035<br />

Total Liabilities 504,426 608,985 658,027 683,541 701,757<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 667,909 778,136 836,707 872,773 902,984<br />

Cash Flow Statement (Rs m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 28,295 15,994 21,729 24,056 27,349<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 18,914 24,108 28,029 30,167 31,569<br />

Tax Paid (12,475) (6,881) (7,040) (7,794) (8,861)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 2,254 (40,380) (43,716) (3,744) (17,048)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 36,761 19,067 14,741 60,557 52,214<br />

Capital Expenditure (43,057) (42,175) (46,000) (54,000) (54,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 32,588 18,957 6,570 5,775 5,076<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (4,525) (22,759) (33,017) (41,851) (42,865)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 15,372 (14,852) 16,075 11,075 22,617<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (5,506) (5,584) (4,259) (4,439) (4,915)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (1,766) (43,787) (10,337) (17,688) (7,793)<br />

Change in Cash 30,469 (47,479) (28,613) 1,018 1,556<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 2.9% 2.3% 2.3% 2.6% 2.7%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 1.7% 1.1% 1.1% 1.3% 1.4%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 1.1% 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 11.1% 5.0% 8.4% 8.8% 9.4%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 5.2% 4.2% 4.3% 4.6% 4.7%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 5.6% 4.3% 5.6% 5.8% 5.8%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 153.2% 178.3% 200.1% 194.8% 194.5%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 148.3% 170.4% 186.3% 181.3% 180.9%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 435.9% 463.0% 494.2% 494.0% 483.0%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.5x 0.6x 1.0x 0.9x 1.3x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 1.8x 1.1x 1.3x 1.4x 1.5x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 2.0% 2.5% 4.4% 4.5% 4.8%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 86.0% 84.6% 85.9% 87.6% 88.9%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 41.3% 44.4% 41.6% 40.3% 39.8%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

53 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Bharti Airtel Ltd. (BHARTI IN)<br />

Sector: Telecommunication Services Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Telecommunication Services Debt Service Cover (x) 0.8x<br />

Country: India<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 108.7%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.7x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Bharti Airtel is one of the world’s leading providers of telecommunication services with significant<br />

presence in India, and operations spread over 17 countries of Africa, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. The<br />

company served an aggregate of 252 million customers as of 31 March 2012. The company became a<br />

global telecom operator by completing the acquisition of Zain Group’s mobile operations in 15 countries<br />

across Africa in June 2010. It acquired Telecom Seychelles Limited, a leading telecom operator in<br />

Seychelles in August 2010, and launched its services in Rwanda in 2012, expanding its African footprint<br />

to 17 countries and its overall presence to 20 countries, thus becoming the first Indian brand to go truly<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Mar) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Rs m) 15,799 38,432 33,705 32,404 29,940<br />

Gross Debt (Rs m) 616,708 690,232 616,922 540,169 443,126<br />

Interest Expense (Rs m) (21,595) (32,352) (35,947) (31,820) (27,041)<br />

EBIT (Rs m) 98,652 103,442 96,122 117,835 116,225<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 119.5% 129.3% 108.7% 87.0% 65.7%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 29.7% 30.0% 30.5% 27.9% 27.4%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 1.8x 2.8x 2.6x 2.0x 1.6x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.0x 0.8x 0.8x 1.4x 1.1x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 4.6x 3.2x 2.7x 3.7x 4.3x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (Rs m) 595,383 714,508 806,483 887,390 937,177<br />

% Change (YoY) 42.1% 20.0% 12.9% 10.0% 5.6%<br />

EBITDA (Rs m) 200,718 237,123 252,272 282,457 298,621<br />

% of Sales 33.7% 33.2% 31.3% 31.8% 31.9%<br />

Net Income (Rs m) 60,467 42,594 37,980 57,335 58,433<br />

% of Sales 10.2% 6.0% 4.7% 6.5% 6.2%<br />

Free Cash Flow (Rs m) (89,929) 73,493 105,631 108,150 122,812<br />

% of Sales (15.1%) 10.3% 13.1% 12.2% 13.1%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 77,587 15,799 38,432 33,705 32,404<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (89,929) 73,493 105,555 108,150 122,812<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) (12,342) 89,292 143,987 141,855 155,216<br />

Principal Repayments 139,104 167,694 173,310 116,753 167,043<br />

Interest Payments 21,595 32,352 35,947 31,820 27,041<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 160,699 200,046 209,257 148,573 194,083<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) (0.1x) 0.4x 0.7x 1.0x 0.8x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In Rs m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 38,432 4.0%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 633,855 66.4%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 672,287 70.4%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 48,287 5.1%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 720,574 75.5%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 954,893 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

54 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

35.0% 33.6% 30.7%<br />

65.0% 66.4% 69.3%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(Rs m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 1,283,186 1,219,197 1,219,197<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 690,232 616,922 540,169<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

1.6x<br />

5.0x<br />

1.4x<br />

1.2x<br />

4.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.8x<br />

3.0x<br />

0.6x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.2x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

1.2x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

Share Price (Rs)<br />

1.0x<br />

0.8x<br />

0.6x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.0x<br />

(0.2x)<br />

456<br />

406<br />

356<br />

306<br />

256<br />

0.4x<br />

0.7x<br />

2011A<br />

(0.1x)<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

1.0x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

206<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Bharti Airtel Ltd.<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (Rs m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 595,383 714,508 806,483 887,390 937,177<br />

Operating Expenses (395,300) (477,935) (554,711) (605,432) (639,056)<br />

EBITDA 200,718 237,123 252,272 282,457 298,621<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (102,066) (133,681) (156,150) (164,622) (182,396)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 98,652 103,442 96,122 117,835 116,225<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (19,472) (29,689) (35,756) (31,654) (26,889)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) (2,341) (8,496) (2,306) (2,364) (2,405)<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits (57) (74) (76) 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 76,782 65,183 57,984 83,817 86,931<br />

Taxes on Profit (17,790) (22,602) (19,813) (26,195) (28,205)<br />

Minority Interests 1,475 13 (191) (288) (294)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 60,467 42,594 37,980 57,335 58,433<br />

Balance Sheet (Rs m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 603,192 630,793 653,379 659,903 648,780<br />

Long-term Investments 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Associates 0 24 24 24 24<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 637,317 660,889 643,207 622,019 598,205<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 1,352,987 1,422,532 1,428,877 1,411,377 1,375,761<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 96,278 109,652 104,806 110,455 116,516<br />

Total Current Assets 112,077 148,084 138,511 142,859 146,456<br />

Total Assets 1,465,064 1,570,616 1,567,388 1,554,236 1,522,217<br />

Shareholders' Equity 487,668 506,113 539,679 592,456 645,729<br />

Total Equity 516,231 533,808 567,565 620,630 674,196<br />

Long Term Debt 532,338 497,154 495,227 371,891 264,554<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 578,988 547,935 550,013 426,691 319,389<br />

Total Current Liabilities 369,845 488,873 449,811 506,915 528,631<br />

Total Liabilities 948,833 1,036,808 999,823 933,606 848,020<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 1,465,064 1,570,616 1,567,388 1,554,236 1,522,217<br />

Cash Flow Statement (Rs m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 76,782 65,183 57,984 83,817 86,931<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 102,066 133,681 156,150 164,622 182,396<br />

Tax Paid (24,388) (29,453) (18,360) (26,195) (28,205)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 9,577 14,863 39,718 4,887 5,396<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 187,948 224,850 270,631 258,150 272,812<br />

Capital Expenditure (277,877) (151,357) (165,000) (150,000) (150,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (326,618) (32,289) 5,138 4,871 4,766<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (603,930) (183,207) (159,671) (144,962) (145,083)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 429,586 (2,830) (73,310) (76,753) (97,043)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net (306) (357) 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (4,428) (4,411) (4,414) (4,558) (5,160)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 397,153 (40,107) (113,671) (113,131) (129,244)<br />

Change in Cash (18,829) 1,536 (2,711) 57 (1,514)<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 33.7% 33.2% 31.3% 31.8% 31.9%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 16.6% 14.5% 11.9% 13.3% 12.4%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 10.2% 6.0% 4.7% 6.5% 6.2%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 13.3% 8.6% 7.3% 10.1% 9.4%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 9.2% 6.9% 6.1% 7.6% 7.6%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 9.1% 5.6% 5.2% 6.8% 6.8%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 119.5% 129.3% 108.7% 87.0% 65.7%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 117.6% 125.5% 105.6% 84.2% 63.3%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 239.2% 305.5% 300.1% 275.7% 248.5%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.0x 0.8x 0.8x 1.4x 1.1x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 4.6x 3.2x 2.7x 3.7x 4.3x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 2.6% 4.2% 3.9% 3.5% 3.0%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 30.3% 30.3% 30.8% 28.2% 27.7%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 29.7% 30.0% 30.5% 27.9% 27.4%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

55 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


BHP Billiton (BHP AU)<br />

Sector: Materials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Materials<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 5.2x<br />

Country: Australia<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 36.1%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.5x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

BHP Biliton is a global mining and oil and gas company headquartered in Melbourne in Australia. It is the<br />

largest player in the global natural resource space based on revenue with its operations spread across<br />

25 countries. The group’s operations encompass diverse commodity businesses like oil, gas, liquefied<br />

natural gas, aluminium, energy coal and metallurgical coal, copper, manganese, iron-ore, uranium,<br />

nickel, silver, titanium, diamond and other specialty products.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 30 Jun) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (US$ m) 10,084 5,629 2,200 11,196 13,819<br />

Gross Debt (US$ m) 15,907 28,330 28,799 28,988 27,844<br />

Interest Expense (US$ m) (562) (715) (1,823) (1,892) (1,845)<br />

EBIT (US$ m) 32,423 25,803 30,053 31,569 33,797<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 27.5% 42.2% 36.1% 31.3% 26.1%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 96.9% 64.5% 97.1% 141.5% 171.6%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.4x 0.7x 0.8x 0.7x 0.7x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 11.0x 4.6x 5.2x 5.2x 4.4x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 57.7x 36.1x 16.5x 16.7x 18.3x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (US$ m) 71,739 72,226 73,649 78,118 84,167<br />

% Change (YoY) 35.9% 0.7% 2.0% 6.1% 7.7%<br />

EBITDA (US$ m) 37,462 32,211 37,047 39,362 42,391<br />

% of Sales 52.2% 44.6% 50.3% 50.4% 50.4%<br />

Net Income (US$ m) 23,648 15,417 19,346 20,274 21,884<br />

% of Sales 33.0% 21.3% 26.3% 26.0% 26.0%<br />

Free Cash Flow (US$ m) 18,722 5,779 2,408 16,306 11,802<br />

% of Sales 26.1% 8.0% 3.3% 20.9% 14.0%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 12,456 10,084 5,629 2,200 11,196<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 18,722 5,779 2,408 16,306 11,802<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 31,178 15,863 8,037 18,506 22,997<br />

Principal Repayments 2,173 4,280 3,531 3,811 5,144<br />

Interest Payments 562 715 1,823 1,892 1,845<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 2,735 4,995 5,354 5,703 6,989<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 11.4x 3.2x 1.5x 3.2x 3.3x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In US$ m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 5,629 16.5%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 70,399 205.8%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 76,028 222.3%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 4,060 11.9%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 80,088 234.2%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 34,203 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

21.2% 18.2% 18.3%<br />

78.8% 81.8% 81.7%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(US$ m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 105,507 129,464 129,464<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 28,330 28,799 28,988<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

12.0x<br />

70.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

60.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

12.0x 11.4x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EJ212036 Corp At Maturity Company Guarantee EUR 1,250.0 1,250.0 99.87 29-May-2012 29-Nov-2018 2.13% 1<br />

EJ372136 Corp At Maturity Company Guarantee EUR 1,250.0 1,250.0 99.76 25-Sep-2012 01-Apr-2014 5.50% 2<br />

EH763378 Corp At Maturity Company Guarantee US$ 1,750.0 1,750.0 99.68 25-Mar-2009 01-Apr-2019 6.50% 2<br />

56 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (A$)<br />

10.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

46<br />

41<br />

36<br />

31<br />

3.2x<br />

1.5x<br />

3.2x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

26<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

BHP Billiton


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (US$ m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 71,739 72,226 73,649 78,118 84,167<br />

Operating Expenses (34,277) (40,015) (36,602) (38,755) (41,777)<br />

EBITDA 37,462 32,211 37,047 39,362 42,391<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (5,039) (6,408) (6,994) (7,794) (8,593)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 32,423 25,803 30,053 31,569 33,797<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (561) (730) (1,716) (1,713) (1,525)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) (647) 1,452 804 823 844<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 31,255 23,022 29,179 30,594 33,021<br />

Taxes on Profit (7,309) (7,490) (9,637) (10,116) (10,916)<br />

Minority Interests (298) (115) (195) (205) (221)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 23,648 15,417 19,346 20,274 21,884<br />

Balance Sheet (US$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 55,424 74,129 81,931 88,146 93,325<br />

Long-term Investments 1,602 1,881 1,951 2,021 2,089<br />

Associates 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 1,456 5,112 5,042 4,972 4,901<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 77,640 108,822 115,515 121,158 126,446<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 15,196 14,822 21,658 19,108 27,363<br />

Total Current Assets 25,280 20,451 23,858 30,303 41,182<br />

Total Assets 102,920 129,273 139,372 151,461 167,627<br />

Shareholders' Equity 56,762 65,870 78,603 91,446 105,210<br />

Total Equity 57,755 67,085 79,837 92,701 106,487<br />

Long Term Debt 12,388 24,799 26,321 26,510 25,366<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 25,427 40,154 42,432 42,940 42,123<br />

Total Current Liabilities 19,738 22,034 17,103 15,821 19,016<br />

Total Liabilities 45,165 62,188 59,535 58,761 61,140<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 102,920 129,273 139,372 151,461 167,627<br />

Cash Flow Statement (US$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 31,255 23,022 29,179 30,594 33,021<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 5,039 6,408 6,994 7,794 8,593<br />

Tax Paid (6,558) (8,327) (9,876) (10,369) (11,189)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 461 (76) (10,615) 1,600 (4,928)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 30,080 24,384 15,945 29,825 25,974<br />

Capital Expenditure (11,358) (18,605) (13,536) (13,519) (14,172)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (4,847) (12,581) 427 464 502<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (16,464) (32,036) (13,054) (13,403) (13,888)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (577) 8,827 469 189 (1,144)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net (10,297) (486) 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (5,144) (5,933) (6,789) (7,615) (8,318)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (16,018) 2,509 (6,320) (7,426) (9,463)<br />

Change in Cash (2,402) (5,143) (3,429) 8,996 2,623<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 52.2% 44.6% 50.3% 50.4% 50.4%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 45.2% 35.7% 40.8% 40.4% 40.2%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 33.0% 21.3% 26.3% 26.0% 26.0%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 44.9% 25.1% 26.8% 23.8% 22.3%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 34.1% 22.4% 22.5% 21.8% 21.4%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 35.7% 19.5% 18.0% 17.2% 17.4%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 27.5% 42.2% 36.1% 31.3% 26.1%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 10.1% 35.1% 34.4% 20.1% 14.0%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 182.1% 189.3% 185.9% 171.0% 162.3%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 11.0x 4.6x 5.2x 5.2x 4.4x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 57.7x 36.1x 16.5x 16.7x 18.3x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 51.1% 21.7% 7.9% 65.4% 68.2%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 128.1% 92.8% 139.5% 191.5% 216.6%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 96.9% 64.5% 97.1% 141.5% 171.6%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

57 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Biocon Ltd. (BIOS IN)<br />

Sector: Health Care Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology Debt Service Cover (x) 6.4x<br />

Country: India<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 9.1%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 17.3x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Established in 1978, Biocon Limited (Biocon) and its two subsidiaries Syngene and Clinigene form an<br />

integrated biotechnological enterprise, focusing on the development of biopharmaceutical products,<br />

custom research and clinical research.<br />

The company delivers innovative solutions to various therapeutic areas, primarily- cancer, diabetes and<br />

inflammatory diseases. Products of the company include Oral Insulin such as Metformin and T1h<br />

(Rheumatoid Arthritis drug) etc. Biocon has a robust drug pipeline, led by monoclonal antibodies and<br />

several other molecules which are used in recombinant human DNA technology. Biocon also markets a<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Mar) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Rs m) 8,410 10,154 8,191 7,285 8,405<br />

Gross Debt (Rs m) 3,132 2,571 2,246 2,136 2,026<br />

Interest Expense (Rs m) (238) (340) (104) (94) (89)<br />

EBIT (Rs m) 3,700 3,429 2,995 3,576 4,231<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 15.1% 11.3% 9.1% 7.9% 6.8%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 131.4% 159.6% 141.4% 126.2% 127.9%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.8x 0.6x 0.5x 0.4x 0.3x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 2.0x 5.0x 6.4x 24.6x 29.1x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 15.5x 10.1x 28.9x 38.0x 47.3x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (Rs m) 18,060 20,865 24,500 28,484 32,573<br />

% Change (YoY) (23.7%) 15.5% 17.4% 16.3% 14.4%<br />

EBITDA (Rs m) 5,216 5,173 4,881 5,716 6,620<br />

% of Sales 28.9% 24.8% 19.9% 20.1% 20.3%<br />

Net Income (Rs m) 3,675 3,384 3,086 3,618 4,162<br />

% of Sales 20.3% 16.2% 12.6% 12.7% 12.8%<br />

Free Cash Flow (Rs m) 5,587 2,659 733 (87) 2,111<br />

% of Sales 30.9% 12.7% 3.0% (0.3%) 6.5%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 5,233 8,410 10,154 8,191 7,285<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 5,587 2,659 733 (87) 2,111<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 10,820 11,069 10,887 8,104 9,396<br />

Principal Repayments 2,004 601 525 110 110<br />

Interest Payments 238 340 104 94 89<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 2,242 941 629 204 199<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 4.8x 11.8x 17.3x 39.7x 47.1x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In Rs m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 10,154 717.0%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 9,144 645.6%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 19,298 1,362.6%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 19,298 1,362.6%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 1,416 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

58 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

5.1%<br />

94.9%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

3.7%<br />

96.3%<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(Rs m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 47,800 58,250 58,250<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 2,571 2,246 2,136<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

45.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

35.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

39.7x<br />

20.0x<br />

17.3x<br />

15.0x<br />

11.8x<br />

10.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

4.8x<br />

2011A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

3.5%<br />

96.5%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

30.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

35.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (Rs)<br />

379<br />

329<br />

279<br />

229<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

179<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Biocon Ltd.<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (Rs m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 18,060 20,865 24,500 28,484 32,573<br />

Operating Expenses (12,844) (15,692) (19,619) (22,768) (25,952)<br />

EBITDA 5,216 5,173 4,881 5,716 6,620<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (1,516) (1,744) (1,887) (2,140) (2,389)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 3,700 3,429 2,995 3,576 4,231<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (222) (70) (41) (54) (57)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 507 566 916 1,020 1,069<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 3,985 3,925 3,870 4,542 5,243<br />

Taxes on Profit (586) (541) (776) (924) (1,081)<br />

Minority Interests 0 0 (8) 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items 276 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 3,675 3,384 3,086 3,618 4,162<br />

Balance Sheet (Rs m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 11,770 12,502 13,843 16,864 17,581<br />

Long-term Investments 609 642 2,267 2,327 2,316<br />

Associates 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 2,344 1,235 1,203 1,167 1,126<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 17,784 19,453 22,196 25,213 25,955<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 9,662 9,843 12,285 13,335 16,034<br />

Total Current Assets 18,072 19,997 20,476 20,620 24,440<br />

Total Assets 35,856 39,450 42,671 45,833 50,395<br />

Shareholders' Equity 20,328 22,724 24,699 26,968 29,577<br />

Total Equity 20,705 22,762 24,745 27,014 29,623<br />

Long Term Debt 658 698 828 718 609<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 4,545 6,530 6,660 6,550 6,441<br />

Total Current Liabilities 10,606 10,158 11,266 12,269 14,331<br />

Total Liabilities 15,151 16,688 17,926 18,819 20,772<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 35,856 39,450 42,671 45,833 50,395<br />

Cash Flow Statement (Rs m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 3,985 3,925 3,870 4,542 5,243<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 1,516 1,744 1,887 2,140 2,389<br />

Tax Paid (813) (739) (776) (924) (1,081)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 2,692 980 (995) (553) (1,163)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 7,985 5,641 3,633 4,813 5,011<br />

Capital Expenditure (2,398) (2,982) (2,900) (4,900) (2,900)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (155) (425) (1,761) 176 80<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (3,145) (3,593) (4,178) (4,209) (2,319)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (1,740) (576) (325) (110) (110)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (768) (997) (1,162) (1,111) (1,350)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (2,746) (1,863) (1,591) (1,315) (1,549)<br />

Change in Cash 2,094 185 (2,136) (712) 1,143<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 28.9% 24.8% 19.9% 20.1% 20.3%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 20.5% 16.4% 12.2% 12.6% 13.0%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 20.3% 16.2% 12.6% 12.7% 12.8%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 19.4% 15.7% 13.0% 14.0% 14.7%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 11.4% 9.2% 7.4% 8.2% 8.9%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 16.8% 15.1% 11.2% 11.9% 12.9%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 15.1% 11.3% 9.1% 7.9% 6.8%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 172.0% 174.9% 173.2% 171.3% 170.2%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 2.0x 5.0x 6.4x 24.6x 29.1x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 15.5x 10.1x 28.9x 38.0x 47.3x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 41.6% 51.5% 27.5% 19.4% 24.6%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 170.4% 196.9% 181.7% 168.1% 170.5%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 131.4% 159.6% 141.4% 126.2% 127.9%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

59 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Brambles Limited (BXB AU)<br />

Sector: Industrials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Commercial & Professional Services Debt Service Cover (x) 5.8x<br />

Country: Australia<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 95.0%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 2.5x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Brambles Limited “Brambles” is an Australia based supply chain and information management solution<br />

provider. The company provides pallet and container pooling solutions through its Pallets, RPCs and<br />

Containers segments and information management solutions through the “RECALL” business. The<br />

company operates in over 45 countries, with operations in Americas, EMEA and Asia Pacific.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 30 Jun) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (US$ m) 139 174 149 166 74<br />

Gross Debt (US$ m) 3,137 2,864 2,928 2,668 2,181<br />

Interest Expense (US$ m) (145) (174) (136) (132) (114)<br />

EBIT (US$ m) 668 791 896 1,027 1,117<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 128.0% 104.5% 95.0% 78.7% 58.2%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 66.6% 92.8% 76.6% 66.7% 67.7%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 2.2x 2.2x 2.0x 1.7x 1.4x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.3x 0.5x 5.8x 2.3x 1.7x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 4.6x 4.6x 6.6x 7.8x 9.8x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (US$ m) 4,672 5,625 5,932 6,309 6,620<br />

% Change (YoY) 12.7% 20.4% 5.5% 6.4% 4.9%<br />

EBITDA (US$ m) 1,168 1,359 1,480 1,629 1,738<br />

% of Sales 25.0% 24.2% 25.0% 25.8% 26.3%<br />

Net Income (US$ m) 475 576 650 742 810<br />

% of Sales 10.2% 10.2% 11.0% 11.8% 12.2%<br />

Free Cash Flow (US$ m) 376 292 386 872 992<br />

% of Sales 8.1% 5.2% 6.5% 13.8% 15.0%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 136 139 174 149 166<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 376 292 386 872 992<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 512 430 560 1,021 1,159<br />

Principal Repayments 2,488 1,710 86 410 638<br />

Interest Payments 145 174 136 132 114<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 2,632 1,884 223 541 751<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.2x 0.2x 2.5x 1.9x 1.5x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In US$ m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 174 6.9%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 4,550 180.5%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 4,724 187.4%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 1,425 56.5%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 6,149 243.9%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 2,521 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

22.8% 18.9% 17.5%<br />

77.2% 81.1% 82.5%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(US$ m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 9,694 12,563 12,563<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 2,864 2,928 2,668<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

7.0x<br />

9.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

7.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

3.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EI646070 Corp At Maturity Company Guarantee EUR 500.0 500.0 99.70 20-Apr-2011 20-Apr-2018 4.63% 1<br />

EI200981 Corp Callable Company Guarantee US$ 500.0 500.0 100.00 31-Mar-2010 01-Apr-2020 5.35% 2<br />

EI200569 Corp Callable Company Guarantee US$ 250.0 250.0 99.90 31-Mar-2010 01-Apr-2020 3.95% 2<br />

60 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (A$)<br />

2.5x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

9.14<br />

8.14<br />

7.14<br />

6.14<br />

0.2x<br />

0.2x<br />

2.5x<br />

1.9x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

5.14<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Brambles Limited


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (US$ m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 4,672 5,625 5,932 6,309 6,620<br />

Operating Expenses (3,504) (4,267) (4,452) (4,680) (4,882)<br />

EBITDA 1,168 1,359 1,480 1,629 1,738<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (500) (567) (585) (602) (621)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 668 791 896 1,027 1,117<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (142) (171) (133) (128) (112)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 14 19 7 7 7<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 6 6 6 6 6<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 685 789 893 1,024 1,121<br />

Taxes on Profit (210) (212) (243) (282) (311)<br />

Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 475 576 650 742 810<br />

Balance Sheet (US$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 4,279 4,139 4,528 4,615 4,552<br />

Long-term Investments 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Associates 17 17 19 20 22<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 2,098 1,970 1,942 1,920 1,903<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 6,455 6,193 6,557 6,623 6,545<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 1,175 1,178 1,215 1,259 1,294<br />

Total Current Assets 1,314 1,352 1,364 1,426 1,368<br />

Total Assets 7,768 7,546 7,921 8,049 7,912<br />

Shareholders' Equity 2,451 2,740 3,081 3,389 3,745<br />

Total Equity 2,451 2,740 3,081 3,389 3,745<br />

Long Term Debt 2,812 2,778 2,518 2,031 1,707<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 3,428 3,401 3,116 2,604 2,255<br />

Total Current Liabilities 1,888 1,405 1,724 2,056 1,912<br />

Total Liabilities 5,317 4,805 4,840 4,660 4,167<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 7,768 7,546 7,921 8,049 7,912<br />

Cash Flow Statement (US$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 685 789 893 1,024 1,121<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 500 567 585 602 621<br />

Tax Paid (222) (215) (251) (296) (328)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 9 (146) (66) 35 (40)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 1,141 1,241 1,386 1,592 1,587<br />

Capital Expenditure (765) (949) (1,000) (720) (595)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (996) 17 (45) (44) (44)<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (1,745) (911) (1,030) (750) (625)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 697 12 64 (260) (488)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 231 327 120 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (224) (398) (429) (434) (453)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 550 (229) (382) (825) (1,055)<br />

Change in Cash (55) 101 (25) 17 (93)<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 25.0% 24.2% 25.0% 25.8% 26.3%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 14.3% 14.1% 15.1% 16.3% 16.9%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 10.2% 10.2% 11.0% 11.8% 12.2%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 23.3% 22.2% 22.3% 22.9% 22.7%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 10.6% 10.4% 11.6% 12.9% 14.0%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 9.3% 9.6% 10.5% 11.6% 12.6%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 128.0% 104.5% 95.0% 78.7% 58.2%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 122.3% 98.2% 90.2% 73.8% 56.3%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 310.5% 295.0% 265.7% 246.8% 223.7%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.3x 0.5x 5.8x 2.3x 1.7x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 4.6x 4.6x 6.6x 7.8x 9.8x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 7.3% 12.4% 8.6% 8.1% 3.8%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 69.6% 96.3% 79.1% 69.3% 71.5%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 66.6% 92.8% 76.6% 66.7% 67.7%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

61 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Cadila Healthcare Ltd. (CDH IN)<br />

Sector: Health Care Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology Debt Service Cover (x) 2.9x<br />

Country: India<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 71.6%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 2.2x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Cadila Healthcare Limited is an Indian pharmaceutical company that manufactures and sells a wide<br />

range of Formulations (branded and generic), Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients, Animal Health and<br />

Consumer products.<br />

It is a dominant player in the domestic market with a strong presence in cardiovascular, gastrointestinal,<br />

women's healthcare and respiratory segment.<br />

Its export business spans across USA, Europe, Japan, Brazil, South Africa and 25 other emerging<br />

markets<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Mar) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Rs m) 2,952 4,696 7,289 6,611 10,807<br />

Gross Debt (Rs m) 10,916 22,893 23,594 21,559 20,744<br />

Interest Expense (Rs m) (567) (1,627) (1,349) (1,281) (1,180)<br />

EBIT (Rs m) 8,993 9,260 12,332 14,794 17,425<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 48.8% 85.9% 71.6% 52.9% 41.4%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 92.8% 77.7% 81.6% 80.0% 91.9%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 1.1x 1.6x 1.6x 1.3x 1.1x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 4.7x 2.2x 2.9x 3.0x 2.9x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 15.9x 5.7x 9.1x 11.5x 14.8x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (Rs m) 44,647 50,900 64,443 75,314 86,674<br />

% Change (YoY) 24.9% 14.0% 26.6% 16.9% 15.1%<br />

EBITDA (Rs m) 10,262 10,839 14,356 17,155 20,110<br />

% of Sales 23.0% 21.3% 22.3% 22.8% 23.2%<br />

Net Income (Rs m) 7,110 6,526 8,125 9,995 12,012<br />

% of Sales 15.9% 12.8% 12.6% 13.3% 13.9%<br />

Free Cash Flow (Rs m) 1,805 (7,425) 4,307 3,633 7,491<br />

% of Sales 4.0% (14.6%) 6.7% 4.8% 8.6%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 2,507 2,952 4,696 7,289 6,611<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 1,805 (7,425) 4,307 3,633 7,491<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 4,312 (4,473) 9,003 10,922 14,101<br />

Principal Repayments 1,432 2,902 2,799 3,409 4,316<br />

Interest Payments 567 1,627 1,349 1,281 1,180<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 1,999 4,529 4,148 4,690 5,495<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 2.2x (1.0x) 2.2x 2.3x 2.6x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In Rs m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 4,696 18.6%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 34,071 135.1%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 38,767 153.8%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 38,767 153.8%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 25,214 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(Rs m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 155,302 180,353 180,353<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 22,893 23,594 21,559<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

2.5x 2.2x<br />

2.0x<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EI759875 Corp Callable Secured Rs 1,750.0 1,750.0 100.00 14-Jul-2011 14-Jul-2016 9.70% 2<br />

EI073871 Corp At Maturity Secured Rs 500.0 500.0 100.00 04-Dec-2009 04-Dec-2014 8.50% 2<br />

62 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

12.8%<br />

87.2%<br />

11.6%<br />

88.4%<br />

10.7%<br />

89.3%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

5.0x<br />

18.0x<br />

16.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

14.0x<br />

12.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (Rs)<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.0x<br />

(0.5x)<br />

(1.0x)<br />

(1.5x)<br />

(1.0x)<br />

2.2x 2.3x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

1137<br />

1037<br />

937<br />

837<br />

737<br />

637<br />

537<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Cadila Healthcare Ltd.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (Rs m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 44,647 50,900 64,443 75,314 86,674<br />

Operating Expenses (36,044) (41,794) (51,954) (60,119) (68,623)<br />

EBITDA 10,262 10,839 14,356 17,155 20,110<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (1,269) (1,579) (2,024) (2,361) (2,685)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 8,993 9,260 12,332 14,794 17,425<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (553) (721) (1,045) (936) (773)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) (15) (597) (191) (181) (167)<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 8,425 7,942 11,096 13,677 16,485<br />

Taxes on Profit (1,064) (1,130) (2,615) (3,244) (3,946)<br />

Minority Interests (251) (286) (356) (438) (527)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 7,110 6,526 8,125 9,995 12,012<br />

Balance Sheet (Rs m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 12,572 17,526 20,948 23,943 26,925<br />

Long-term Investments 207 212 212 212 212<br />

Associates 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 6,101 11,300 11,300 11,300 11,300<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 24,853 36,161 40,283 43,890 47,540<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 18,301 22,935 28,198 30,912 36,437<br />

Total Current Assets 21,253 27,631 35,486 37,523 47,244<br />

Total Assets 46,106 63,792 75,769 81,413 94,784<br />

Shareholders' Equity 21,715 25,736 31,700 39,036 47,853<br />

Total Equity 22,384 26,640 32,960 40,734 50,078<br />

Long Term Debt 7,629 13,223 13,314 9,823 9,732<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 9,563 15,621 15,780 12,436 12,502<br />

Total Current Liabilities 14,159 21,531 27,029 28,243 32,204<br />

Total Liabilities 23,722 37,152 42,809 40,678 44,705<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 46,106 63,792 75,769 81,413 94,784<br />

Cash Flow Statement (Rs m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 8,425 7,942 11,096 13,677 16,485<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 1,269 1,579 2,024 2,361 2,685<br />

Tax Paid (1,525) (1,435) (2,484) (3,081) (3,749)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (3,799) (4,757) (761) (3,928) (1,654)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 6,826 5,019 10,807 10,133 14,491<br />

Capital Expenditure (5,021) (12,444) (6,500) (6,500) (7,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 224 196 693 819 951<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (4,660) (11,903) (5,500) (5,334) (5,640)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 68 11,978 701 (2,035) (816)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (1,222) (1,753) (2,066) (2,161) (2,659)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (1,721) 8,598 (2,714) (5,478) (4,654)<br />

Change in Cash 445 1,714 2,593 (678) 4,196<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 23.0% 21.3% 22.3% 22.8% 23.2%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 20.1% 18.2% 19.1% 19.6% 20.1%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 15.9% 12.8% 12.6% 13.3% 13.9%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 37.4% 27.5% 28.3% 28.3% 27.6%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 21.8% 17.4% 18.1% 19.3% 20.2%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 27.0% 20.1% 19.1% 20.6% 22.0%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 48.8% 85.9% 71.6% 52.9% 41.4%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 35.6% 68.4% 49.6% 36.8% 19.9%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 219.6% 231.6% 243.0% 222.2% 202.8%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 4.7x 2.2x 2.9x 3.0x 2.9x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 15.9x 5.7x 9.1x 11.5x 14.8x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 20.8% 21.7% 26.9% 23.3% 33.5%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 150.1% 128.3% 131.3% 132.9% 146.7%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 92.8% 77.7% 81.6% 80.0% 91.9%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

63 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Cairn India Limited (CAIR IN)<br />

Sector: Energy Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Energy<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 9.9x<br />

Country: India<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 0.0%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 11.6x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Cairn India is one of the largest private upstream companies in India and is primarily engaged in the<br />

exploration, development and production of oil & natural gas. The company has participating interests in<br />

11 blocks in India and 1 in Srilanka. In India, the company’s major production assets include MBA fields<br />

(Mangala, Bhagyam and Aishwariya) in Rajasthan block, Ravva field in Krishna-Godavari basin and<br />

many onshore and offshore oil & gas producing fields in Cambay block in Gujarat. Cairn India’s gross<br />

production in FY12 was 172,887 boepd (barrels of oil equivalent per day).<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Mar) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Rs m) 55,214 88,491 137,802 178,602 233,508<br />

Gross Debt (Rs m) 26,782 12,518 0 0 0<br />

Interest Expense (Rs m) (1,973) (1,321) 0 0 0<br />

EBIT (Rs m) 70,614 78,141 110,899 108,744 73,121<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 6.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 466.0% 434.4% 452.3% 517.3% 666.4%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.4x 0.2x 0.0x - -<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 2.8x 5.7x 9.9x - -<br />

Interest Cover (x) 35.8x 59.1x - - -<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (Rs m) 102,779 118,607 170,666 180,999 147,869<br />

% Change (YoY) 533.3% 15.4% 43.9% 6.1% (18.3%)<br />

EBITDA (Rs m) 82,841 92,851 129,614 130,706 95,953<br />

% of Sales 80.6% 78.3% 75.9% 72.2% 64.9%<br />

Net Income (Rs m) 63,344 79,377 109,935 108,630 76,180<br />

% of Sales 61.6% 66.9% 64.4% 60.0% 51.5%<br />

Free Cash Flow (Rs m) 37,733 41,152 56,334 57,734 73,164<br />

% of Sales 36.7% 34.7% 33.0% 31.9% 49.5%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 26,418 55,214 88,491 137,802 178,602<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 37,733 41,152 56,334 57,734 73,164<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 64,152 96,366 144,825 195,536 251,765<br />

Principal Repayments 25,778 14,181 12,518 0 0<br />

Interest Payments 1,973 1,321 0 0 0<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 27,751 15,503 12,518 0 0<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 2.3x 6.2x 11.6x - -<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In Rs m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 88,491 706.9%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 291,244 2,326.5%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 379,734 3,033.4%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 379,734 3,033.4%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 12,518 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

64 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

98.1% 100.0% 100.0%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity<br />

(Rs m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 636,880 610,367 610,367<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 12,518 0 0<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

12.0x<br />

70.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

60.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

14.0x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

12.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

6.2x<br />

11.6x<br />

4.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

2.3x<br />

0<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Share Price (Rs)<br />

458<br />

408<br />

358<br />

308<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

258<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Cairn India Limited<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (Rs m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 102,779 118,607 170,666 180,999 147,869<br />

Operating Expenses (19,938) (25,756) (41,052) (50,293) (51,916)<br />

EBITDA 82,841 92,851 129,614 130,706 95,953<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (12,226) (14,709) (18,715) (21,962) (22,833)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 70,614 78,141 110,899 108,744 73,121<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (2,426) (13) 2,993 5,053 6,727<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 712 7,135 1,470 300 300<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 68,900 84,235 115,362 114,097 80,148<br />

Taxes on Profit (5,556) (4,857) (5,427) (5,467) (3,968)<br />

Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 63,344 79,377 109,935 108,630 76,180<br />

Balance Sheet (Rs m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 119,718 134,280 168,219 198,597 182,004<br />

Long-term Investments 578 3,828 3,828 3,828 3,828<br />

Associates 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 253,379 253,415 253,417 253,415 253,406<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 389,277 420,086 469,872 515,345 508,690<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 20,740 25,959 29,971 37,656 40,735<br />

Total Current Assets 75,955 114,450 167,773 216,258 274,243<br />

Total Assets 465,232 534,536 637,645 731,603 782,933<br />

Shareholders' Equity 402,932 482,921 570,869 654,513 705,554<br />

Total Equity 402,932 482,921 570,869 654,513 705,554<br />

Long Term Debt 26,738 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 46,196 25,581 30,081 35,622 36,622<br />

Total Current Liabilities 16,104 26,034 36,695 41,467 40,757<br />

Total Liabilities 62,299 51,615 66,777 77,089 77,379<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 465,232 534,536 637,645 731,603 782,933<br />

Cash Flow Statement (Rs m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 68,900 84,235 115,362 114,097 80,148<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 12,226 14,709 18,715 21,962 22,833<br />

Tax Paid (12,592) (21,291) (25,877) (25,467) (17,968)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (10,088) (29) 5,437 4,533 1,109<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 63,381 70,710 111,434 113,744 83,764<br />

Capital Expenditure (25,648) (29,558) (55,100) (56,010) (10,600)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 6,241 (6,785) 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (49,183) (27,306) (49,604) (50,957) (3,873)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (7,098) (14,181) (12,518) 0 0<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 670 566 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (8,730) (15,216) (12,518) (21,987) (24,985)<br />

Change in Cash 5,468 28,188 49,312 40,799 54,906<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 80.6% 78.3% 75.9% 72.2% 64.9%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 68.7% 65.9% 65.0% 60.1% 49.4%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 61.6% 66.9% 64.4% 60.0% 51.5%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 17.1% 17.9% 20.9% 17.7% 11.2%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 16.6% 16.1% 19.5% 16.6% 10.5%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 17.3% 17.9% 23.8% 21.4% 13.7%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 6.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 115.6% 112.9% 111.2% 111.7% 111.4%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 2.8x 5.7x 9.9x - -<br />

Interest Cover (x) 35.8x 59.1x - - -<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 274.9% 269.4% 325.5% 386.4% 527.9%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 471.7% 439.6% 457.2% 521.5% 672.9%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 466.0% 434.4% 452.3% 517.3% 666.4%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

65 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. (293 HK)<br />

Sector: Industrials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Transportation<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.6x<br />

Country: Hong Kong<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 95.3%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.1x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Cathay Pacific Airways is an international airline registered and based in Hong Kong, offering scheduled<br />

passenger and cargo services to 167 destinations in 42 countries and territories. The company was<br />

founded in Hong Kong in 1946 and remains focused on its home base, making substantial investments<br />

to develop Hong Kong as one of the world’s leading global transportation hubs. In addition to the fleet of<br />

135 aircraft, these investments include catering and ground handling companies.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (HK$ m) 24,743 21,638 14,798 12,949 12,655<br />

Gross Debt (HK$ m) 45,484 49,013 52,910 56,233 57,704<br />

Interest Expense (HK$ m) (624) (488) (1,625) (1,987) (2,289)<br />

EBIT (HK$ m) 11,410 5,676 2,222 4,941 7,513<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 83.6% 87.6% 95.3% 95.9% 91.7%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 101.3% 82.6% 65.8% 61.2% 57.7%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 2.7x 4.0x 5.6x 4.2x 3.5x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.6x 1.1x 0.6x 1.0x 1.2x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 18.3x 11.6x 1.4x 2.5x 3.3x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (HK$ m) 89,524 98,406 99,942 105,781 113,502<br />

% Change (YoY) 33.7% 9.9% 1.6% 5.8% 7.3%<br />

EBITDA (HK$ m) 17,761 11,844 9,104 12,876 16,414<br />

% of Sales 19.8% 12.0% 9.1% 12.2% 14.5%<br />

Net Income (HK$ m) 14,048 5,501 986 3,672 5,599<br />

% of Sales 15.7% 5.6% 1.0% 3.5% 4.9%<br />

Free Cash Flow (HK$ m) 9,735 (3,678) (8,024) (3,709) 1,067<br />

% of Sales 10.9% (3.7%) (8.0%) (3.5%) 0.9%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 17,717 24,743 21,638 14,798 12,949<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 9,735 (3,678) (8,024) (3,709) 1,067<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 27,452 21,065 13,614 11,089 14,016<br />

Principal Repayments 9,290 8,874 10,603 9,677 9,529<br />

Interest Payments 624 488 1,625 1,987 2,289<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 9,914 9,362 12,228 11,664 11,818<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 2.8x 2.3x 1.1x 1.0x 1.2x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In HK$ m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 21,638 33.2%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation (115) (0.2%)<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 21,523 33.0%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 2,403 3.7%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 23,926 36.7%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 65,271 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

66 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

48.3% 48.6% 49.9%<br />

51.7% 51.4% 50.1%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(HK$ m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 52,399 55,939 56,569<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 49,013 52,910 56,233<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

1.8x<br />

1.6x<br />

20.0x<br />

1.4x<br />

1.2x<br />

15.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.8x<br />

0.6x<br />

10.0x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.2x<br />

5.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

3.0x 2.8x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

2.5x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

2.3x<br />

1.1x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

18<br />

16<br />

14<br />

12<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

1.0x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

10<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd.<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (HK$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 89,524 98,406 99,942 105,781 113,502<br />

Operating Expenses (71,763) (86,562) (90,838) (92,905) (97,087)<br />

EBITDA 17,761 11,844 9,104 12,876 16,414<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (6,351) (6,168) (6,882) (7,935) (8,901)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 11,410 5,676 2,222 4,941 7,513<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (978) (744) (922) (1,425) (1,769)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 2,587 1,717 89 898 929<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 15,695 6,473 1,389 4,414 6,673<br />

Taxes on Profit (1,462) (803) (229) (628) (901)<br />

Minority Interests (185) (169) (174) (114) (173)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 14,048 5,501 986 3,672 5,599<br />

Balance Sheet (HK$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 64,192 69,216 78,413 92,316 98,491<br />

Long-term Investments 6,725 4,835 5,075 4,685 4,572<br />

Associates 12,926 17,894 17,957 18,585 19,236<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 8,004 8,601 8,687 8,767 8,841<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 96,711 109,413 120,484 128,937 135,724<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 12,454 11,760 12,190 12,838 13,713<br />

Total Current Assets 37,197 33,398 26,988 25,787 26,368<br />

Total Assets 133,908 142,811 147,471 154,724 162,092<br />

Shareholders' Equity 54,274 55,809 55,339 58,392 62,658<br />

Total Equity 54,429 55,944 55,526 58,614 62,932<br />

Long Term Debt 36,235 38,410 43,233 46,704 46,331<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 43,750 47,819 52,642 56,113 55,740<br />

Total Current Liabilities 35,729 39,048 39,304 39,997 43,421<br />

Total Liabilities 79,479 86,867 91,946 96,110 99,160<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 133,908 142,811 147,471 154,724 162,092<br />

Cash Flow Statement (HK$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 15,695 6,473 1,389 4,414 6,673<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 6,351 6,168 6,882 7,935 8,901<br />

Tax Paid (810) (1,461) (719) (678) (778)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 1,095 4,658 1,241 243 581<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 18,034 13,932 9,626 12,441 16,217<br />

Capital Expenditure (8,299) (17,610) (17,650) (16,150) (15,150)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 2,999 (449) 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (14,474) (12,942) (13,420) (15,319) (14,352)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (3,475) 3,313 3,897 3,323 1,471<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (1,691) (3,777) (1,456) (618) (1,333)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (5,538) 270 313 1,249 (2,096)<br />

Change in Cash (1,978) 1,260 (3,480) (1,629) (230)<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 19.8% 12.0% 9.1% 12.2% 14.5%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 12.7% 5.8% 2.2% 4.7% 6.6%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 15.7% 5.6% 1.0% 3.5% 4.9%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 29.1% 10.0% 1.8% 6.5% 9.3%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 9.5% 4.8% 2.0% 3.6% 5.1%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 16.3% 7.5% 2.5% 5.0% 7.2%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 83.6% 87.6% 95.3% 95.9% 91.7%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 68.4% 70.4% 84.2% 88.3% 84.9%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 263.2% 251.4% 261.2% 265.7% 261.7%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.6x 1.1x 0.6x 1.0x 1.2x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 18.3x 11.6x 1.4x 2.5x 3.3x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 23.2% 24.6% 15.6% 11.3% 9.8%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 104.1% 85.5% 68.7% 64.5% 60.7%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 101.3% 82.6% 65.8% 61.2% 57.7%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

67 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Cheung Kong Infrastructure Holdings Ltd. (1038 HK)<br />

Sector: Utilities Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Utilities<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.1x<br />

Country: Hong Kong<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 9.8%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.6x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Cheung Kong Infrastructure Holdings Limited (CKI) is one of the largest publicly listed infrastructure<br />

companies in Hong Kong. The company is primarily engaged in the development, investment and<br />

operation of Energy, Transportation and Other infrastructure related businesses in Hong Kong, Mainland<br />

China, Australia, Canada, Philippines, New Zealand and United Kingdom.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (HK$ m) 5,438 5,947 4,753 5,752 6,659<br />

Gross Debt (HK$ m) 8,487 14,468 7,126 6,704 6,289<br />

Interest Expense (HK$ m) (441) (1,052) (1,139) (1,026) (1,005)<br />

EBIT (HK$ m) 591 853 1,174 1,171 1,166<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 15.8% 24.2% 9.8% 8.5% 7.4%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 201.2% 49.8% 210.9% 247.7% 281.8%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 12.2x 12.4x 8.8x 5.6x 5.3x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.3x 0.5x 0.1x 0.9x 0.9x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 1.3x 1.6x 1.0x 1.1x 1.2x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (HK$ m) 2,814 3,493 4,048 4,156 4,268<br />

% Change (YoY) 28.8% 24.1% 15.9% 2.7% 2.7%<br />

EBITDA (HK$ m) 670 922 1,234 1,233 1,230<br />

% of Sales 23.8% 26.4% 30.5% 29.7% 28.8%<br />

Net Income (HK$ m) 5,028 7,745 9,855 10,365 10,567<br />

% of Sales 178.7% 221.7% 243.5% 249.4% 247.6%<br />

Free Cash Flow (HK$ m) 1,758 1,269 1,704 1,708 1,674<br />

% of Sales 62.5% 36.3% 42.1% 41.1% 39.2%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 9,306 5,438 5,947 4,753 5,752<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 1,758 1,269 1,704 1,708 1,674<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 11,064 6,707 7,651 6,461 7,426<br />

Principal Repayments 1,722 1,299 11,342 422 415<br />

Interest Payments 441 535 1,201 1,026 1,005<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 2,163 1,834 12,543 1,448 1,420<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 5.1x 3.7x 0.6x 4.5x 5.2x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In HK$ m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 5,947 32.7%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 8,607 47.3%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 14,554 80.0%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 14,554 80.0%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 18,189 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

11.2% 5.3% 5.0%<br />

7.8% 7.8%<br />

6.2%<br />

82.6% 86.9% 87.2%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Preferred Stock Debt<br />

(HK$ m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 106,411 115,882 116,125<br />

Preferred Stock 7,933 10,336 10,336<br />

Debt 14,468 7,126 6,704<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

0.9x<br />

1.8x<br />

0.8x<br />

1.6x<br />

0.7x<br />

1.4x<br />

0.6x<br />

1.2x<br />

0.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.8x<br />

0.3x<br />

0.6x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.1x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

6.0x<br />

5.1x<br />

5.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EI413638 Corp Perpetual/Callable Company Guarantee US$ 1,000.0 1,000.0 100.00 29-Sep-2010 N.A. 6.63% 2<br />

EJ035371 Corp Perpetual/Callable Subordinated US$ 300.0 300.0 100.00 27-Feb-2012 N.A. 7.00% 2<br />

68 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

4.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

61<br />

56<br />

51<br />

46<br />

41<br />

3.7x<br />

0.6x<br />

4.5x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

36<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Cheung Kong Infrastructure Holdings Ltd.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (HK$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 2,814 3,493 4,048 4,156 4,268<br />

Operating Expenses (2,144) (2,571) (2,814) (2,923) (3,038)<br />

EBITDA 670 922 1,234 1,233 1,230<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (79) (69) (60) (62) (64)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 591 853 1,174 1,171 1,166<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (179) (341) (256) (67) 4<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 384 92 385 241 248<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 4,367 7,397 9,241 9,726 9,857<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 5,175 8,266 10,544 11,071 11,275<br />

Taxes on Profit (8) 6 (15) (12) (14)<br />

Minority Interests (6) (10) (13) (13) (14)<br />

Other Post-tax Items (133) (517) (661) (681) (681)<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 5,028 7,745 9,855 10,365 10,567<br />

Balance Sheet (HK$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 1,462 1,051 1,089 1,125 1,159<br />

Long-term Investments 4,824 5,197 5,509 5,481 5,454<br />

Associates 51,280 63,446 70,109 74,629 79,203<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 151 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 57,964 69,867 76,880 81,409 85,989<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 858 1,009 1,163 1,160 1,217<br />

Total Current Assets 6,296 6,956 5,916 6,912 7,876<br />

Total Assets 64,260 76,823 82,796 88,321 93,865<br />

Shareholders' Equity 45,673 51,744 62,587 68,504 74,441<br />

Total Equity 53,687 59,772 73,030 78,961 84,911<br />

Long Term Debt 7,259 3,126 6,704 6,289 5,875<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 7,515 3,524 7,102 6,687 6,273<br />

Total Current Liabilities 3,058 13,527 2,664 2,672 2,681<br />

Total Liabilities 10,573 17,051 9,766 9,360 8,954<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 64,260 76,823 82,796 88,321 93,865<br />

Cash Flow Statement (HK$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 5,175 8,266 10,544 11,071 11,275<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 79 69 60 62 64<br />

Tax Paid 19 8 (8) (8) (9)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 458 256 (104) 15 (53)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 1,829 1,622 1,804 1,808 1,774<br />

Capital Expenditure (71) (353) (100) (100) (100)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (14,046) (9,816) (2,709) 30 30<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (11,509) (6,506) 2,155 5,087 5,184<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (30) 6,142 (7,342) (422) (415)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 3,411 4,668 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (2,727) (3,108) (3,680) (4,447) (4,631)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 5,812 5,393 (5,153) (5,896) (6,051)<br />

Change in Cash (3,868) 509 (1,194) 999 907<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 23.8% 26.4% 30.5% 29.7% 28.8%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 21.0% 24.4% 29.0% 28.2% 27.3%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 178.7% 221.7% 243.5% 249.4% 247.6%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 11.4% 15.9% 17.2% 15.8% 14.8%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 1.5% 1.5% 1.8% 1.7% 1.6%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 32.1% 182.3% 1,015.2% 611.0% 483.2%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 15.8% 24.2% 9.8% 8.5% 7.4%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 5.7% 14.3% 3.2% 1.2% -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 132.0% 144.8% 139.6% 130.5% 127.5%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.3x 0.5x 0.1x 0.9x 0.9x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 1.3x 1.6x 1.0x 1.1x 1.2x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 177.8% 44.0% 178.4% 215.2% 248.3%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 205.9% 51.4% 222.1% 258.6% 293.7%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 201.2% 49.8% 210.9% 247.7% 281.8%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

69 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


China Airlines Ltd. (2610 TT)<br />

Sector: Industrials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Transportation<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.3x<br />

Country: Taiwan<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 196.3%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.4x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Founded in 1959, China Airlines Limited (CAL) is Taiwan's premier airline engaged in the provision of<br />

passenger and cargo transportation services. The company operates worldwide flights, with routes<br />

extending to major cities in the United States, Europe, Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia. As of<br />

September 2012, the company connected 109 destinations in 28 countries with its fleet capacity of 72<br />

aircrafts, including 51 passenger aircrafts and 21 freight carriers. The company posted revenue of NT$<br />

132.2 billion in FY11, of which passenger transportation and cargo transportation accounted for 61.1%<br />

and 35.1% respectively while the remaining 3.8% came from others.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (NT$ m) 11,214 12,322 8,494 10,935 11,610<br />

Gross Debt (NT$ m) 116,098 118,504 107,221 107,508 106,768<br />

Interest Expense (NT$ m) (2,656) (2,245) (2,377) (2,254) (2,225)<br />

EBIT (NT$ m) 14,765 (1,565) 2,092 5,305 8,159<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 238.6% 251.8% 196.3% 185.1% 168.6%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 50.2% 43.6% 49.1% 55.5% 55.1%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 5.0x 13.3x 8.8x 6.5x 5.4x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.8x 0.4x 0.3x 0.8x 1.0x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 5.6x - 0.9x 2.4x 3.7x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (NT$ m) 138,140 132,240 135,511 143,432 151,705<br />

% Change (YoY) 40.8% (4.3%) 2.5% 5.8% 5.8%<br />

EBITDA (NT$ m) 24,819 8,839 12,837 16,550 19,981<br />

% of Sales 18.0% 6.7% 9.5% 11.5% 13.2%<br />

Net Income (NT$ m) 10,622 (1,954) 904 3,692 6,141<br />

% of Sales 7.7% (1.5%) 0.7% 2.6% 4.0%<br />

Free Cash Flow (NT$ m) 14,412 (2,601) 674 2,257 2,228<br />

% of Sales 10.4% (2.0%) 0.5% 1.6% 1.5%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 6,165 11,214 12,322 8,494 10,935<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 14,412 (2,601) 674 2,257 2,228<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 20,577 8,614 12,996 10,751 13,163<br />

Principal Repayments 26,386 22,369 31,433 15,158 15,058<br />

Interest Payments 2,656 2,245 2,377 2,254 2,225<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 29,041 24,613 33,811 17,412 17,283<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.7x 0.3x 0.4x 0.6x 0.8x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In NT$ m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 12,322 11.5%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 10,353 9.6%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 22,675 21.1%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 22,675 21.1%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 107,459 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

70 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

66.2% 63.2% 63.1%<br />

33.8% 36.8% 36.9%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(NT$ m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 60,489 62,400 62,920<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 118,504 107,221 107,508<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

0.9x<br />

6.0x<br />

0.8x<br />

0.7x<br />

5.0x<br />

0.6x<br />

4.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.4x<br />

3.0x<br />

0.3x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.1x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

0.8x<br />

0.7x<br />

0.7x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

0.6x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.3x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.1x<br />

0.3x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Share Price (NT$)<br />

17.35<br />

15.35<br />

13.35<br />

11.35<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

0.6x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

9.35<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

China Airlines Ltd.<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (NT$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 138,140 132,240 135,511 143,432 151,705<br />

Operating Expenses (113,321) (123,402) (122,674) (126,881) (131,724)<br />

EBITDA 24,819 8,839 12,837 16,550 19,981<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (10,054) (10,404) (10,745) (11,245) (11,822)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 14,765 (1,565) 2,092 5,305 8,159<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (2,547) (2,086) (2,237) (2,127) (2,067)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) (1,050) 598 632 651 670<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 906 663 602 619 637<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 11,620 (2,348) 1,089 4,448 7,399<br />

Taxes on Profit (998) 394 (185) (756) (1,258)<br />

Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 10,622 (1,954) 904 3,692 6,141<br />

Balance Sheet (NT$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 136,829 135,382 134,977 135,196 137,087<br />

Long-term Investments 758 758 758 758 758<br />

Associates 8,779 9,255 9,526 9,805 10,091<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 546 504 509 514 518<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 172,166 169,767 171,512 172,763 176,469<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 19,729 20,600 20,461 21,964 23,524<br />

Total Current Assets 30,943 32,923 28,955 32,900 35,134<br />

Total Assets 203,109 202,690 200,467 205,663 211,603<br />

Shareholders' Equity 48,663 47,059 54,630 58,096 63,315<br />

Total Equity 48,663 47,059 54,630 58,096 63,315<br />

Long Term Debt 91,934 87,071 91,413 91,355 88,956<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 106,041 99,849 104,191 104,133 101,734<br />

Total Current Liabilities 48,406 55,782 41,647 43,434 46,554<br />

Total Liabilities 154,447 155,631 145,837 147,567 148,288<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 203,109 202,690 200,467 205,663 211,603<br />

Cash Flow Statement (NT$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 11,620 (2,348) 1,089 4,448 7,399<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 10,054 10,404 10,745 11,245 11,822<br />

Tax Paid (71) (67) (139) (602) (1,094)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (774) (3,746) 1,627 (61) (98)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 19,618 3,162 12,674 14,257 17,228<br />

Capital Expenditure (5,207) (5,763) (12,000) (12,000) (15,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 204 111 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (3,741) (4,188) (11,724) (11,714) (14,704)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (10,617) 1,108 (11,283) 287 (740)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 6,667 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid 0 (1,853) 0 (226) (923)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (10,595) (905) (4,778) (101) (1,848)<br />

Change in Cash 5,282 (1,931) (3,829) 2,441 675<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 18.0% 6.7% 9.5% 11.5% 13.2%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 10.7% (1.2%) 1.5% 3.7% 5.4%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 7.7% (1.5%) 0.7% 2.6% 4.0%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 23.6% (4.1%) 1.8% 6.6% 10.1%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 7.2% (0.7%) 1.1% 2.7% 4.0%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 8.2% (1.0%) 1.1% 2.8% 4.3%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 238.6% 251.8% 196.3% 185.1% 168.6%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 216.4% 232.8% 186.9% 172.0% 155.6%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 461.2% 423.9% 396.5% 360.3% 343.7%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.8x 0.4x 0.3x 0.8x 1.0x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 5.6x - 0.9x 2.4x 3.7x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 22.3% 16.0% 12.3% 17.4% 17.7%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 63.9% 59.0% 69.5% 75.7% 75.5%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 50.2% 43.6% 49.1% 55.5% 55.1%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

71 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


China Coal Energy Company Limited - H Share (1898 HK)<br />

Sector: Energy Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Energy<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 4.1x<br />

Country: China<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 46.8%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.3x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

China Coal Energy Company Limited is a 56% owned subsidiary of China National Coal Group<br />

Corporation that was incorporated in August, 2006. It is primarily engaged in the business of coal<br />

production and trading, pit mouth power generation, coal mining equipment manufacturing and coal mine<br />

design. It is the second largest state-owned coal mining company in Mainland China and the fifth largest<br />

coal mining company in the world.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (RMB m) 27,546 32,174 21,199 23,349 29,311<br />

Gross Debt (RMB m) 12,138 29,034 48,190 62,105 65,673<br />

Interest Expense (RMB m) (462) (746) (1,420) (2,864) (3,317)<br />

EBIT (RMB m) 10,729 13,733 13,754 15,876 17,125<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 14.1% 30.3% 46.8% 56.0% 55.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 219.1% 169.5% 124.6% 163.6% 145.7%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.9x 1.2x 2.2x 2.5x 2.6x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 6.8x 6.9x 4.1x 3.0x 2.5x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 23.2x 18.4x 9.7x 5.5x 5.2x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (RMB m) 70,303 87,773 91,579 102,538 113,112<br />

% Change (YoY) 32.2% 24.9% 4.3% 12.0% 10.3%<br />

EBITDA (RMB m) 14,166 17,814 17,958 21,845 24,379<br />

% of Sales 20.2% 20.3% 19.6% 21.3% 21.6%<br />

Net Income (RMB m) 7,466 9,802 9,089 9,577 10,190<br />

% of Sales 10.6% 11.2% 9.9% 9.3% 9.0%<br />

Free Cash Flow (RMB m) (1,378) (4,349) (27,497) (9,716) 4,540<br />

% of Sales (2.0%) (5.0%) (30.0%) (9.5%) 4.0%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 35,442 27,546 32,174 21,199 23,349<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (1,377) (4,349) (27,497) (9,716) 4,540<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 34,065 23,196 4,677 11,483 27,889<br />

Principal Repayments 1,207 1,395 2,184 3,425 4,772<br />

Interest Payments 462 746 1,420 2,864 3,317<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 1,669 2,141 3,604 6,290 8,089<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 20.4x 10.8x 1.3x 1.8x 3.4x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In RMB m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 32,174 87.1%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation (22,542) (61.0%)<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 9,632 26.1%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 9,632 26.1%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 36,942 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(RMB m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 46,153 41,266 41,266<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 29,034 48,190 62,105<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

8.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

7.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

25.0x<br />

20.4x<br />

20.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

1.3x 1.8x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EI779323 Corp At Maturity Unsecured RMB 15,000.0 15,000.0 100.00 18-Aug-2011 18-Aug-2016 5.65% 1<br />

EJ359793 Corp At Maturity Unsecured RMB 5,000.0 5,000.0 100.00 19-Sep-2012 19-Sep-2019 5.12% 1<br />

72 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

38.6%<br />

61.4%<br />

53.9%<br />

46.1%<br />

60.1%<br />

39.9%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

15.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

10.8x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

12.18<br />

11.18<br />

10.18<br />

9.18<br />

8.18<br />

7.18<br />

6.18<br />

5.18<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

China Coal Energy Company Limited - H Share


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (RMB m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 70,303 87,773 91,579 102,538 113,112<br />

Operating Expenses (56,136) (69,959) (73,621) (80,693) (88,733)<br />

EBITDA 14,166 17,814 17,958 21,845 24,379<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (3,437) (4,081) (4,204) (5,969) (7,254)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 10,729 13,733 13,754 15,876 17,125<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (109) (177) (856) (2,397) (2,764)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 491 187 127 133 139<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 46 295 147 147 147<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 10,999 14,042 13,172 13,760 14,648<br />

Taxes on Profit (2,848) (3,383) (3,293) (3,350) (3,572)<br />

Minority Interests (685) (857) (790) (833) (886)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 7,466 9,802 9,089 9,577 10,190<br />

Balance Sheet (RMB m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 30,854 31,557 51,819 65,664 77,960<br />

Long-term Investments 1,221 1,221 1,212 1,205 1,200<br />

Associates 4,421 7,637 7,637 7,637 7,637<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 21,218 31,345 31,143 30,943 30,747<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 74,236 103,822 142,187 153,881 165,178<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 21,154 23,938 25,579 28,500 30,292<br />

Total Current Assets 48,700 56,111 46,779 51,849 59,603<br />

Total Assets 122,936 159,933 188,966 205,729 224,781<br />

Shareholders' Equity 74,049 81,745 87,983 95,251 103,009<br />

Total Equity 86,339 95,965 102,914 110,932 119,487<br />

Long Term Debt 10,716 26,411 46,502 60,205 63,160<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 17,207 35,189 55,366 69,166 72,221<br />

Total Current Liabilities 19,391 28,779 30,686 25,632 33,073<br />

Total Liabilities 36,598 63,968 86,052 94,797 105,294<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 122,936 159,933 188,966 205,729 224,781<br />

Cash Flow Statement (RMB m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 10,999 14,042 13,172 13,760 14,648<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 3,437 4,081 4,204 5,969 7,254<br />

Tax Paid (2,066) (3,213) (4,370) (3,717) (3,624)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (2,616) (405) 2,084 (7,732) 5,180<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 10,682 14,698 15,649 8,645 23,890<br />

Capital Expenditure (12,060) (19,047) (43,146) (18,361) (19,350)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (984) (4,245) 156 198 233<br />

Cash Flow from Investing 1,466 (35,178) (42,849) (18,018) (18,975)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (723) 5,321 7,156 1,915 (2,432)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (2,080) (2,195) (2,930) (2,392) (2,521)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (1,853) 18,443 16,226 11,523 1,046<br />

Change in Cash 10,295 (2,037) (10,974) 2,150 5,962<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 20.2% 20.3% 19.6% 21.3% 21.6%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 15.3% 15.6% 15.0% 15.5% 15.1%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 10.6% 11.2% 9.9% 9.3% 9.0%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 10.5% 12.6% 10.7% 10.5% 10.3%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 9.6% 10.1% 8.2% 8.3% 8.2%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 12.3% 12.7% 9.3% 8.6% 8.5%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 14.1% 30.3% 46.8% 56.0% 55.0%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - 8.5% 37.2% 45.1% 39.9%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 164.1% 181.6% 205.6% 215.4% 217.1%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 6.8x 6.9x 4.1x 3.0x 2.5x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 23.2x 18.4x 9.7x 5.5x 5.2x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 118.2% 72.5% 32.3% 47.0% 54.5%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 251.2% 195.0% 152.4% 202.3% 180.2%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 219.1% 169.5% 124.6% 163.6% 145.7%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

73 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


China Communication Construction - H Share (1800 HK)<br />

Sector: Industrials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Capital Goods<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.3x<br />

Country: China<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 73.2%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.7x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

China Communications Construction Company Limited (CCCC), is principally engaged in the design and<br />

construction of transport infrastructure, dredging and heavy machinery manufacturing business.CCCC is<br />

the largest port construction and design company in China. It is also the largest dredging company in<br />

China and the second largest (in terms of dredging volume) in the world. The company is also the<br />

world’s largest container Crane manufacturer.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (RMB m) 38,826 45,121 7,343 14,339 21,724<br />

Gross Debt (RMB m) 81,329 106,045 71,756 68,370 65,946<br />

Interest Expense (RMB m) (2,867) (4,016) (4,445) (3,503) (3,358)<br />

EBIT (RMB m) 11,463 13,704 16,865 19,579 23,039<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 110.0% 131.0% 73.2% 62.1% 53.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 88.7% 91.6% 98.4% 100.6% 101.3%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 4.4x 4.6x 3.7x 2.6x 2.2x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.3x 0.3x 0.3x 1.3x 1.6x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 4.0x 3.4x 3.8x 5.6x 6.9x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (RMB m) 272,734 294,281 305,171 342,724 389,639<br />

% Change (YoY) 20.2% 7.9% 3.7% 12.3% 13.7%<br />

EBITDA (RMB m) 17,211 20,196 23,985 26,834 30,177<br />

% of Sales 6.3% 6.9% 7.9% 7.8% 7.7%<br />

Net Income (RMB m) 9,599 11,767 12,418 14,698 17,541<br />

% of Sales 3.5% 4.0% 4.1% 4.3% 4.5%<br />

Free Cash Flow (RMB m) 1,104 (14,389) (5,510) 15,474 15,193<br />

% of Sales 0.4% (4.9%) (1.8%) 4.5% 3.9%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 33,817 38,826 45,121 7,343 14,339<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 1,104 (14,389) (5,510) 15,474 15,193<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 34,921 24,437 39,611 22,817 29,532<br />

Principal Repayments 45,953 49,128 54,289 13,386 12,424<br />

Interest Payments 2,867 4,016 4,445 3,503 3,358<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 48,820 53,144 58,734 16,889 15,782<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.7x 0.5x 0.7x 1.4x 1.9x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In RMB m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 45,121 35.2%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 60,573 47.2%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 105,694 82.3%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 193,259 150.6%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 298,953 232.9%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 128,356 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(RMB m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 14,825 66,688 66,688<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 106,045 71,756 68,370<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

1.4x<br />

6.0x<br />

1.2x<br />

5.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

0.8x<br />

0.6x<br />

3.0x<br />

0.4x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.2x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

1.6x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

9.93<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EH947481 Corp At Maturity Company Guarantee RMB 7,900.0 7,900.0 100.00 21-Aug-2009 21-Aug-2019 5.20% 1<br />

EJ280185 Corp At Maturity Company Guarantee RMB 6,000.0 6,000.0 100.00 09-Aug-2012 09-Aug-2017 4.40% 1<br />

EJ318715 Corp At Maturity Company Guarantee RMB 4,000.0 4,000.0 100.00 09-Aug-2012 09-Aug-2027 5.15% 1<br />

74 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

87.7%<br />

12.3%<br />

51.8% 50.6%<br />

48.2% 49.4%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

1.4x<br />

1.2x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.8x<br />

0.6x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.2x<br />

8.93<br />

7.93<br />

6.93<br />

5.93<br />

0.7x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.7x<br />

1.4x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

4.93<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

China Communication Construction - H Share


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (RMB m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 272,734 294,281 305,171 342,724 389,639<br />

Operating Expenses (255,523) (274,085) (281,186) (315,890) (359,462)<br />

EBITDA 17,211 20,196 23,985 26,834 30,177<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (5,748) (6,492) (7,121) (7,255) (7,138)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 11,463 13,704 16,865 19,579 23,039<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (1,788) (1,362) (2,653) (2,390) (2,166)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 1,824 1,877 1,762 1,907 2,081<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 116 173 157 168 170<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 12,081 15,029 16,517 19,652 23,512<br />

Taxes on Profit (2,443) (3,046) (3,715) (4,421) (5,336)<br />

Minority Interests (39) (216) (384) (533) (636)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 9,599 11,767 12,418 14,698 17,541<br />

Balance Sheet (RMB m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 43,093 45,523 47,650 48,948 49,637<br />

Long-term Investments 15,452 12,846 12,730 12,616 12,502<br />

Associates 3,687 4,093 4,113 4,143 4,173<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 15,906 23,902 31,811 36,693 40,558<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 119,563 135,496 140,302 147,374 152,218<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 152,244 178,163 185,075 193,765 204,031<br />

Total Current Assets 191,070 223,284 192,419 208,104 225,755<br />

Total Assets 310,633 358,780 332,720 355,478 377,972<br />

Shareholders' Equity 62,990 70,206 87,011 98,604 112,470<br />

Total Equity 73,921 80,945 98,049 110,059 124,421<br />

Long Term Debt 38,569 51,756 58,370 55,946 51,521<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 45,596 58,866 65,480 63,259 58,983<br />

Total Current Liabilities 191,116 218,969 169,191 182,160 194,569<br />

Total Liabilities 236,712 277,835 234,671 245,419 253,552<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 310,633 358,780 332,720 355,478 377,972<br />

Cash Flow Statement (RMB m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 12,081 15,029 16,517 19,652 23,512<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 5,748 6,492 7,121 7,255 7,138<br />

Tax Paid (2,289) (2,604) (4,127) (4,318) (4,979)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 75 (16,771) (11,267) 3,256 (1,208)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 15,508 1,719 9,990 27,974 26,193<br />

Capital Expenditure (14,404) (16,108) (15,500) (12,500) (11,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (601) 288 656 665 667<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (15,376) (14,386) (13,336) (10,868) (9,211)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 9,590 25,505 (34,289) (3,386) (2,424)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (1,720) (2,372) (2,902) (3,105) (3,674)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 4,989 19,143 (34,432) (10,111) (9,597)<br />

Change in Cash 5,121 6,476 (37,778) 6,996 7,385<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 6.3% 6.9% 7.9% 7.8% 7.7%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 4.2% 4.7% 5.5% 5.7% 5.9%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 3.5% 4.0% 4.1% 4.3% 4.5%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 16.3% 17.7% 15.8% 15.8% 16.6%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 4.2% 4.7% 5.2% 5.8% 6.4%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 9.4% 9.2% 9.2% 9.9% 11.3%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 110.0% 131.0% 73.2% 62.1% 53.0%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 57.5% 75.3% 65.7% 49.1% 35.5%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 488.7% 502.6% 439.8% 370.8% 347.5%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.3x 0.3x 0.3x 1.3x 1.6x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 4.0x 3.4x 3.8x 5.6x 6.9x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 20.3% 20.6% 4.3% 7.9% 11.2%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 100.0% 102.0% 113.7% 114.2% 116.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 88.7% 91.6% 98.4% 100.6% 101.3%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

75 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


China Communications Services Corp Ltd (552 HK)<br />

Sector: Telecommunication Services Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Telecommunication Services Debt Service Cover (x) 66.0x<br />

Country: Hong Kong<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 4.9%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 252.5x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

China Communication Services Corp. is the largest telecommunications infrastructure service provider in<br />

China. The Company provides services for telecommunications, media and IT companies. The Company<br />

has three major revenue segments- Telecommunication Infrastructure Services (TIS), Business Process<br />

Outsourcing (BPO) and Applications, Content and Other Services (ACO).<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (RMB m) 8,470 7,298 13,016 14,727 17,394<br />

Gross Debt (RMB m) 1,781 998 998 998 998<br />

Interest Expense (RMB m) (57) (59) (43) (43) (43)<br />

EBIT (RMB m) 1,806 2,159 2,151 2,690 3,214<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 12.1% 6.2% 4.9% 4.5% 4.1%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 131.4% 134.1% 145.0% 144.9% 145.7%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.6x 0.5x 0.4x 0.3x 0.2x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.4x 1.0x 66.0x 80.2x 93.9x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 31.8x 36.4x 50.1x 62.7x 74.9x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (RMB m) 45,417 53,507 62,709 71,654 80,778<br />

% Change (YoY) 15.0% 17.8% 17.2% 14.3% 12.7%<br />

EBITDA (RMB m) 2,445 2,841 2,834 3,442 4,033<br />

% of Sales 5.4% 5.3% 4.5% 4.8% 5.0%<br />

Net Income (RMB m) 1,804 2,115 2,208 2,704 3,179<br />

% of Sales 4.0% 4.0% 3.5% 3.8% 3.9%<br />

Free Cash Flow (RMB m) 706 308 3,543 2,555 3,706<br />

% of Sales 1.6% 0.6% 5.6% 3.6% 4.6%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 8,870 8,470 7,298 13,016 14,727<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 706 308 3,543 2,555 3,706<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 9,577 8,778 10,841 15,571 18,433<br />

Principal Repayments 1,357 2,165 0 0 0<br />

Interest Payments 57 59 43 43 43<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 1,413 2,225 43 43 43<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 6.8x 3.9x 252.5x 362.7x 429.4x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In RMB m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 7,298 3,400.2%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 15,756 7,340.6%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 23,054 10,740.8%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 23,054 10,740.8%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 215 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

76 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

5.7%<br />

94.3%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(RMB m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 16,373 24,944 26,197<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 998 998 998<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

90.0x<br />

70.0x<br />

80.0x<br />

60.0x<br />

70.0x<br />

60.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

400.0x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

3.8%<br />

96.2%<br />

50.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

6.8x 3.9x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

350.0x<br />

300.0x<br />

250.0x<br />

200.0x<br />

150.0x<br />

100.0x<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

3.7%<br />

96.3%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

5.81<br />

5.31<br />

4.81<br />

4.31<br />

3.81<br />

3.31<br />

252.5x<br />

362.7x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

2.81<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

China Communications Services Corp Ltd<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (RMB m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 45,417 53,507 62,709 71,654 80,778<br />

Operating Expenses (43,094) (50,779) (59,989) (68,325) (76,858)<br />

EBITDA 2,445 2,841 2,834 3,442 4,033<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (638) (683) (683) (751) (819)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 1,806 2,159 2,151 2,690 3,214<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 20 24 62 99 121<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 431 460 503 568 634<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 3 (3) (4) 1 2<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 2,260 2,640 2,712 3,358 3,971<br />

Taxes on Profit (458) (534) (503) (655) (793)<br />

Minority Interests 1 9 (1) 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 1,804 2,115 2,208 2,704 3,179<br />

Balance Sheet (RMB m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 3,885 3,929 4,094 4,204 4,256<br />

Long-term Investments 1,427 1,392 1,377 1,368 1,364<br />

Associates 61 63 59 60 62<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 253 247 210 179 158<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 6,857 7,019 7,107 7,157 7,166<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 18,958 23,879 26,044 29,487 32,038<br />

Total Current Assets 27,428 31,177 39,060 44,213 49,432<br />

Total Assets 34,284 38,197 46,167 51,370 56,598<br />

Shareholders' Equity 14,617 16,004 20,355 22,176 24,273<br />

Total Equity 14,749 16,125 20,477 22,297 24,395<br />

Long Term Debt 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 53 84 84 84 84<br />

Total Current Liabilities 19,482 21,988 25,606 28,989 32,119<br />

Total Liabilities 19,535 22,072 25,689 29,073 32,203<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 34,284 38,197 46,167 51,370 56,598<br />

Cash Flow Statement (RMB m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 2,260 2,640 2,712 3,358 3,971<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 638 683 683 751 819<br />

Tax Paid (437) (559) (511) (602) (723)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (1,754) (1,725) (7) (1,385) (811)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 1,526 1,224 4,293 3,330 4,506<br />

Capital Expenditure (820) (916) (750) (775) (800)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (292) 3 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (1,055) (861) (719) (736) (758)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 367 (754) 0 0 0<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 2,990 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (1,298) (787) (846) (883) (1,081)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (861) (1,522) 2,143 (883) (1,081)<br />

Change in Cash (390) (1,159) 5,717 1,711 2,667<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 5.4% 5.3% 4.5% 4.8% 5.0%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 4.0% 4.0% 3.4% 3.8% 4.0%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 4.0% 4.0% 3.5% 3.8% 3.9%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 12.8% 13.8% 12.1% 12.7% 13.7%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 5.8% 6.2% 5.3% 5.8% 6.3%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 25.1% 22.8% 22.5% 30.2% 37.1%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 12.1% 6.2% 4.9% 4.5% 4.1%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 230.9% 236.7% 232.0% 229.3% 232.4%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.4x 1.0x 66.0x 80.2x 93.9x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 31.8x 36.4x 50.1x 62.7x 74.9x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 43.5% 33.2% 50.8% 50.8% 54.2%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 140.8% 141.8% 152.5% 152.5% 153.9%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 131.4% 134.1% 145.0% 144.9% 145.7%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

77 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


China COSCO Holdings Co., Ltd. - H Share (1919 HK)<br />

Sector: Industrials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Transportation<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) -<br />

Country: China<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 171.6%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.7x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

China COSCO Holdings Company Limited was established in the People’s Republic of China (the<br />

“PRC”) in 2005 and is the capital platform of China Ocean Shipping (Group) Company (“COSCO”,<br />

together with its subsidiaries, the “COSCO Group”). The company provides a wide range of container<br />

shipping, dry bulk shipping, logistics, terminals, and container leasing covering the whole shipping value<br />

chain for both international and domestic customers through its various subsidiaries.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (RMB '000) 46,683,220 46,962,725 35,557,809 35,715,170 32,790,395<br />

Gross Debt (RMB '000) 60,797,074 77,026,440 78,164,590 82,913,970 81,021,715<br />

Interest Expense (RMB '000) (1,301,370) (1,707,205) (2,295,524) (2,377,320) (2,402,200)<br />

EBIT (RMB '000) 7,372,764 (10,488,676) (5,036,259) 894,875 2,408,426<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 97.6% 153.5% 171.6% 179.0% 167.1%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 204.9% 123.7% 109.8% 104.1% 88.0%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 5.6x - - 15.0x 11.3x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.7x - - 0.2x 0.3x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 5.7x - - 0.4x 1.0x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (RMB '000) 96,487,636 84,639,178 85,600,143 97,983,636 111,856,427<br />

% Change (YoY) 40.9% (12.3%) 1.1% 14.5% 14.2%<br />

EBITDA (RMB '000) 10,901,485 (6,899,477) (966,971) 5,376,241 7,249,992<br />

% of Sales 11.3% (8.2%) (1.1%) 5.5% 6.5%<br />

Net Income (RMB '000) 6,785,497 (10,495,295) (5,127,799) 250,799 1,637,290<br />

% of Sales 7.0% (12.4%) (6.0%) 0.3% 1.5%<br />

Free Cash Flow (RMB '000) 1,829,767 (14,295,793) (11,073,138) (3,250,940) 281,813<br />

% of Sales 1.9% (16.9%) (12.9%) (3.3%) 0.3%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 44,243,227 46,683,220 46,962,725 35,557,809 35,715,170<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 1,829,767 (14,295,793) (11,073,138) (3,250,940) 281,813<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 46,072,994 32,387,427 35,889,587 32,306,869 35,996,983<br />

Principal Repayments 12,058,065 12,529,307 18,861,850 15,250,620 16,892,255<br />

Interest Payments 1,301,370 1,707,205 2,295,524 2,377,320 2,402,200<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 13,359,435 14,236,512 21,157,374 17,627,940 19,294,454<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 3.4x 2.3x 1.7x 1.8x 1.9x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In RMB '000)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 46,962,725 44.6%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation (6,271,727) (6.0%)<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 40,690,998 38.6%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 36,406,134 34.6%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 77,097,132 73.2%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 105,287,128 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

66.8% 68.3% 69.6%<br />

33.2% 31.7% 30.4%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(RMB '000) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 38,315,554 36,253,922 36,253,922<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 77,026,440 78,164,590 82,913,970<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

0.8x<br />

6.0x<br />

0.7x<br />

0.6x<br />

5.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

4.0x<br />

0.4x<br />

3.0x<br />

0.3x<br />

0.2x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.1x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

4.0x<br />

3.4x<br />

3.5x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EH791174 Corp At Maturity Unsecured RMB 10,000.0 10,000.0 100.00 21-Apr-2009 22-Apr-2014 3.77% 1<br />

EI389485 Corp At Maturity Unsecured RMB 5,000.0 5,000.0 100.00 03-Sep-2010 06-Sep-2020 4.35% 1<br />

EI889268 Corp At Maturity Unsecured RMB 4,000.0 4,000.0 100.00 29-Nov-2011 30-Nov-2018 5.45% 1<br />

78 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

3.0x<br />

2.5x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

6.35<br />

5.35<br />

4.35<br />

3.35<br />

2.3x<br />

1.7x<br />

1.8x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

2.35<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

China COSCO Holdings Co., Ltd. - H Share


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (RMB '000) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 96,487,636 84,639,178 85,600,143 97,983,636 111,856,427<br />

Operating Expenses (85,586,151) (91,538,655) (86,567,113 (92,607,39 (104,606,435<br />

EBITDA 10,901,485 (6,899,477) (966,971) 5,376,241 7,249,992<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (3,528,721) (3,589,199) (4,069,288) (4,481,366) (4,841,566)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 7,372,764 (10,488,676) (5,036,259) 894,875 2,408,426<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (583,443) (684,786) (1,220,973) (1,416,504) (1,499,298)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 334,941 1,008,901 727,629 61,835 68,268<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 1,718,676 2,059,991 1,794,964 2,098,840 2,245,770<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 9,209,589 (7,854,229) (3,734,640) 1,639,045 3,223,166<br />

Taxes on Profit (1,195,844) (1,031,036) (367,599) (385,051) (494,349)<br />

Minority Interests (1,228,248) (1,610,030) (1,025,560) (1,003,195) (1,091,527)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 6,785,497 (10,495,295) (5,127,799) 250,799 1,637,290<br />

Balance Sheet (RMB '000)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 57,428,070 61,629,560 70,463,187 78,051,552 81,864,170<br />

Long-term Investments 634,607 481,725 481,725 481,725 481,725<br />

Associates 15,482,170 16,142,852 17,390,334 18,639,754 19,912,639<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 2,411,796 2,868,849 2,786,061 2,708,536 2,635,425<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 90,371,412 94,699,781 101,776,11 108,391,38 113,454,803<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 13,927,260 15,796,379 15,066,667 16,116,838 17,860,825<br />

Total Current Assets 60,610,480 62,759,104 50,624,476 51,832,008 50,651,220<br />

Total Assets 150,981,892 157,458,885 152,400,58 160,223,39 164,106,023<br />

Shareholders' Equity 47,828,959 34,695,286 29,567,487 29,818,286 31,455,576<br />

Total Equity 62,300,855 50,170,453 45,555,434 46,307,831 48,490,884<br />

Long Term Debt 54,927,482 55,313,702 60,063,082 63,170,827 58,278,573<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 60,138,227 59,295,443 64,018,360 67,214,230 62,550,960<br />

Total Current Liabilities 28,542,810 47,992,989 42,826,792 46,701,331 53,064,179<br />

Total Liabilities 88,681,037 107,288,432 106,845,15 113,915,56 115,615,139<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 150,981,892 157,458,885 152,400,58 160,223,39 164,106,023<br />

Cash Flow Statement (RMB '000)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 9,209,589 (7,854,229) (3,734,640) 1,639,045 3,223,166<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 3,528,721 3,589,199 4,069,288 4,481,366 4,841,566<br />

Tax Paid (289,764) (487,128) (579,684) (492,099) (493,112)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (1,714,787) (151,343) (456,828) 1,199,877 1,384,013<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 10,328,699 (5,749,621) (1,298,138) 6,474,060 8,806,813<br />

Capital Expenditure (8,498,932) (8,546,172) (9,775,000) (9,725,000) (8,525,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (2,448,901) 1,331,360 (350,000) (200,000) (150,000)<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (10,216,070) (4,822,147) (8,386,624) (8,147,161) (6,851,370)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 1,591,646 14,643,419 1,138,150 4,749,380 (1,892,255)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid 0 (919,465) 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 2,784,712 11,706,955 (1,720,154) 1,830,463 (4,880,218)<br />

Change in Cash 2,897,341 1,135,187 (11,404,916 157,361 (2,924,775)<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 11.3% (8.2%) (1.1%) 5.5% 6.5%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 7.6% (12.4%) (5.9%) 0.9% 2.2%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 7.0% (12.4%) (6.0%) 0.3% 1.5%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 15.1% (25.4%) (16.0%) 0.8% 5.3%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 5.5% (6.2%) (2.7%) 1.0% 1.9%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 10.2% (15.8%) (7.1%) 0.9% 2.6%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 97.6% 153.5% 171.6% 179.0% 167.1%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 22.7% 59.9% 93.5% 101.9% 99.5%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 321.4% 373.8% 482.2% 526.4% 529.3%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.7x - - 0.2x 0.3x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 5.7x - - 0.4x 1.0x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 163.6% 97.9% 83.0% 76.5% 61.8%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 212.3% 130.8% 118.2% 111.0% 95.5%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 204.9% 123.7% 109.8% 104.1% 88.0%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

79 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


China Eastern Airlines Corp. Ltd. - H Share (670 HK)<br />

Sector: Industrials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Transportation<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.0x<br />

Country: China<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 306.4%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.0x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited (China Eastern), formerly China Eastern Airlines established<br />

in 1988, was founded in April 1995 with the headquarters located in Shanghai. As one of the three major<br />

airlines in Mainland China, it has a fleet of 380 wide and narrow-body aircraft with an average age of less<br />

than seven years. It also ranks among the world’s top 10 airlines in passenger transportation volume.<br />

With Shanghai as the main hub, it serves 197 destinations and operates a world-wide flight network<br />

covering China, connecting Asia, Europe, America and Oceania.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (RMB m) 3,078 3,861 4,818 3,270 2,775<br />

Gross Debt (RMB m) 57,774 62,035 75,359 90,320 103,492<br />

Interest Expense (RMB m) (1,645) (1,701) (2,013) (2,487) (2,955)<br />

EBIT (RMB m) 6,074 4,772 4,997 6,759 8,609<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 348.8% 284.5% 306.4% 314.3% 305.7%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 27.5% 28.0% 27.2% 24.5% 23.6%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 4.0x 5.1x 5.3x 5.2x 4.9x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.4x 0.4x 1.0x 0.9x 1.2x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 3.7x 2.8x 2.5x 2.7x 2.9x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (RMB m) 73,760 82,400 88,339 96,468 105,352<br />

% Change (YoY) 89.2% 11.7% 7.2% 9.2% 9.2%<br />

EBITDA (RMB m) 12,801 11,684 12,848 16,083 19,837<br />

% of Sales 17.4% 14.2% 14.5% 16.7% 18.8%<br />

Net Income (RMB m) 4,958 4,576 2,757 4,084 5,061<br />

% of Sales 6.7% 5.6% 3.1% 4.2% 4.8%<br />

Free Cash Flow (RMB m) 657 75 (4,117) (5,070) (1,686)<br />

% of Sales 0.9% 0.1% (4.7%) (5.3%) (1.6%)<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 1,735 3,078 3,861 4,818 3,270<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 657 75 (4,117) (5,070) (1,686)<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 2,392 3,153 (256) (252) 1,584<br />

Principal Repayments 30,671 25,951 9,177 13,039 11,828<br />

Interest Payments 1,645 1,701 2,013 2,487 2,955<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 32,316 27,652 11,190 15,526 14,784<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.1x 0.1x 0.0x 0.0x 0.1x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In RMB m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 3,861 5.2%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation (1,320) (1.8%)<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 2,541 3.4%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 35,500 48.1%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 38,041 51.5%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 73,861 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(RMB m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 33,067 30,810 30,810<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 62,035 75,359 90,320<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

0.1x<br />

0.1x<br />

0.1x<br />

0.1x<br />

0.1x<br />

0.1x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.1x<br />

(0.0x)<br />

(0.0x)<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F<br />

(0.0x)<br />

2013F<br />

(0.0x)<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EI771133 Corp At Maturity Guaranteed RMB 2,500.0 2,500.0 100.00 01-Aug-2011 08-Aug-2014 4.00% 2<br />

80 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

65.2%<br />

34.8%<br />

71.0% 74.6%<br />

29.0% 25.4%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

1.2x<br />

4.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

3.5x<br />

3.0x<br />

0.8x<br />

2.5x<br />

0.6x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.4x<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

3.86<br />

3.36<br />

2.86<br />

2.36<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

1.86<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

China Eastern Airlines Corp. Ltd. - H Share


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (RMB m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 73,760 82,400 88,339 96,468 105,352<br />

Operating Expenses (61,633) (71,742) (76,491) (81,385) (86,515)<br />

EBITDA 12,801 11,684 12,848 16,083 19,837<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (6,727) (6,912) (7,851) (9,324) (11,228)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 6,074 4,772 4,997 6,759 8,609<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (1,421) (1,311) (1,476) (1,900) (2,391)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 1,075 1,872 (230) 0 0<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 67 107 132 152 159<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 5,418 4,841 3,423 5,010 6,377<br />

Taxes on Profit (133) (264) (490) (666) (992)<br />

Minority Interests (326) (1) (176) (261) (323)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 4,958 4,576 2,757 4,084 5,061<br />

Balance Sheet (RMB m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 67,782 71,640 82,488 98,365 114,251<br />

Long-term Investments 242 240 240 240 240<br />

Associates 1,214 1,261 1,677 1,753 1,832<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 11,333 11,354 11,354 11,354 11,354<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 91,254 101,031 118,445 140,603 161,365<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 9,002 9,847 10,221 10,848 11,361<br />

Total Current Assets 12,080 13,708 15,038 14,117 14,136<br />

Total Assets 103,334 114,739 133,483 154,720 175,501<br />

Shareholders' Equity 15,271 20,126 22,883 26,967 32,028<br />

Total Equity 16,562 21,805 24,597 28,733 33,859<br />

Long Term Debt 40,425 41,405 50,866 67,038 80,443<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 47,508 49,547 59,402 75,997 89,854<br />

Total Current Liabilities 39,264 43,387 49,484 49,991 51,788<br />

Total Liabilities 86,772 92,934 108,886 125,987 141,642<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 103,334 114,739 133,483 154,720 175,501<br />

Cash Flow Statement (RMB m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 5,418 4,841 3,423 5,010 6,377<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 6,727 6,912 7,851 9,324 11,228<br />

Tax Paid (99) (158) (331) (499) (745)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (2,845) 30 1,276 449 744<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 10,641 13,623 14,383 16,930 20,814<br />

Capital Expenditure (9,985) (13,548) (18,500) (22,000) (22,500)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 524 344 350 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (8,633) (14,939) (18,596) (21,744) (22,267)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 1,689 1,880 7,323 5,961 4,172<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 9,095 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (652) 2,136 5,169 3,265 958<br />

Change in Cash 1,356 820 957 (1,548) (494)<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 17.4% 14.2% 14.5% 16.7% 18.8%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 8.2% 5.8% 5.7% 7.0% 8.2%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 6.7% 5.6% 3.1% 4.2% 4.8%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 60.1% 25.9% 12.8% 16.4% 17.2%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 7.0% 4.5% 4.2% 4.8% 5.3%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 9.5% 5.5% 4.5% 5.2% 5.5%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 348.8% 284.5% 306.4% 314.3% 305.7%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 330.3% 266.8% 286.8% 303.0% 297.5%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 1,061.4% 616.1% 577.1% 578.1% 559.8%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.4x 0.4x 1.0x 0.9x 1.2x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 3.7x 2.8x 2.5x 2.7x 2.9x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 7.8% 8.9% 9.7% 6.5% 5.4%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 30.8% 31.6% 30.4% 28.2% 27.3%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 27.5% 28.0% 27.2% 24.5% 23.6%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

81 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


China Merchants Holdings (Intl.) Co., Ltd. (144 HK)<br />

Sector: Industrials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Transportation<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.6x<br />

Country: Hong Kong<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 43.0%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.2x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

China Merchants Holdings (International) Company Limited (CMHI) is the leading port investor and<br />

operator in China. At present, the company has investments and operations across China (including<br />

Hong Kong), Sri Lanka, Vietnam and Nigeria. The company is also into bonded logistics and cold chain<br />

operations and port-related manufacturing operations in China.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (HK$ m) 6,734 7,774 4,760 3,992 5,360<br />

Gross Debt (HK$ m) 22,272 24,726 24,487 23,563 23,595<br />

Interest Expense (HK$ m) (745) (1,048) (1,230) (1,201) (1,179)<br />

EBIT (HK$ m) 2,075 2,828 3,085 3,374 3,625<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 45.1% 45.2% 43.0% 39.1% 36.9%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 119.7% 127.5% 137.9% 130.7% 137.0%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 5.9x 5.5x 5.4x 4.9x 4.5x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.3x 0.3x 0.6x 0.7x 1.2x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 2.8x 2.7x 2.5x 2.8x 3.1x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (HK$ m) 5,811 9,470 9,558 10,384 11,084<br />

% Change (YoY) 62.0% 63.0% 0.9% 8.6% 6.7%<br />

EBITDA (HK$ m) 3,093 4,240 4,519 4,941 5,299<br />

% of Sales 53.2% 44.8% 47.3% 47.6% 47.8%<br />

Net Income (HK$ m) 5,876 5,569 3,960 4,474 4,953<br />

% of Sales 101.1% 58.8% 41.4% 43.1% 44.7%<br />

Free Cash Flow (HK$ m) 592 480 (69) 1,928 3,157<br />

% of Sales 10.2% 5.1% (0.7%) 18.6% 28.5%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 3,206 6,734 7,774 4,760 3,992<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 592 480 (69) 1,928 3,157<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 3,798 7,214 7,705 6,688 7,149<br />

Principal Repayments 8,678 11,918 5,239 5,424 2,968<br />

Interest Payments 745 1,048 1,230 1,201 1,179<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 9,423 12,966 6,469 6,625 4,147<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.4x 0.6x 1.2x 1.0x 1.7x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In HK$ m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 7,774 22.1%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 12,531 35.6%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 20,305 57.7%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 25,333 72.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 45,638 129.7%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 35,186 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

82 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

30.7% 28.5% 26.9%<br />

69.3% 71.5% 73.1%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(HK$ m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 55,798 61,489 63,964<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 24,726 24,487 23,563<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

0.8x<br />

2.9x<br />

0.7x<br />

0.6x<br />

2.8x<br />

0.5x<br />

2.7x<br />

0.4x<br />

2.6x<br />

0.3x<br />

0.2x<br />

2.5x<br />

0.1x<br />

2.4x<br />

0.0x<br />

2.3x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

1.4x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

1.2x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.8x<br />

0.6x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.6x<br />

1.2x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

33<br />

28<br />

23<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

1.0x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

18<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

China Merchants Holdings (Intl.) Co., Ltd.<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (HK$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 5,811 9,470 9,558 10,384 11,084<br />

Operating Expenses (2,718) (5,230) (5,040) (5,443) (5,785)<br />

EBITDA 3,093 4,240 4,519 4,941 5,299<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (1,018) (1,412) (1,433) (1,566) (1,674)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 2,075 2,828 3,085 3,374 3,625<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (641) (874) (1,016) (1,038) (1,049)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 454 553 427 54 54<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 3,690 3,675 2,968 3,726 3,981<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 7,238 7,686 5,610 6,117 6,611<br />

Taxes on Profit (558) (1,015) (661) (648) (657)<br />

Minority Interests (804) (1,102) (990) (995) (1,000)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 5,876 5,569 3,960 4,474 4,953<br />

Balance Sheet (HK$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 29,382 30,323 31,511 34,452 34,424<br />

Long-term Investments 2,418 1,919 1,919 1,919 1,919<br />

Associates 28,290 32,432 34,268 36,490 38,842<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 3,389 4,591 4,578 4,566 4,554<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 64,733 71,914 75,481 78,722 80,745<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 6,884 7,398 8,664 8,693 9,219<br />

Total Current Assets 13,618 15,172 13,424 12,685 14,580<br />

Total Assets 78,351 87,086 88,904 91,406 95,324<br />

Shareholders' Equity 39,042 43,405 45,127 47,945 51,042<br />

Total Equity 49,371 54,760 56,977 60,293 63,890<br />

Long Term Debt 15,669 17,216 19,042 18,249 17,681<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 17,734 20,616 22,442 21,649 21,081<br />

Total Current Liabilities 11,246 11,710 9,485 9,465 10,353<br />

Total Liabilities 28,980 32,326 31,927 31,114 31,434<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 78,351 87,086 88,904 91,406 95,324<br />

Cash Flow Statement (HK$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 7,238 7,686 5,610 6,117 6,611<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 1,018 1,412 1,433 1,566 1,674<br />

Tax Paid (290) (554) (728) (668) (660)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (1,274) (1,351) (1,358) 102 (235)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 1,664 2,442 2,531 4,428 4,457<br />

Capital Expenditure (1,072) (1,962) (2,600) (2,500) (1,300)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 590 (821) 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Investing 847 (551) (1,343) (917) 415<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 1,646 2,326 (239) (924) 32<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 33 30 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (733) (2,660) (2,237) (1,656) (1,857)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 522 (1,963) (4,202) (4,279) (3,504)<br />

Change in Cash 3,033 (72) (3,014) (768) 1,368<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 53.2% 44.8% 47.3% 47.6% 47.8%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 35.7% 29.9% 32.3% 32.5% 32.7%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 101.1% 58.8% 41.4% 43.1% 44.7%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 16.2% 13.5% 8.9% 9.6% 10.0%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 3.3% 3.6% 3.6% 3.8% 4.0%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 6.4% 6.4% 6.4% 6.8% 7.3%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 45.1% 45.2% 43.0% 39.1% 36.9%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 32.2% 32.7% 36.3% 34.1% 30.0%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 180.2% 200.7% 198.8% 193.7% 188.6%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.3x 0.3x 0.6x 0.7x 1.2x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 2.8x 2.7x 2.5x 2.8x 3.1x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 56.5% 58.2% 40.0% 32.0% 42.5%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 121.1% 129.6% 141.5% 134.0% 140.8%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 119.7% 127.5% 137.9% 130.7% 137.0%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

83 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


China Mobile Ltd. (941 HK)<br />

Sector: Telecommunication Services Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Telecommunication Services Debt Service Cover (x) 386.9x<br />

Country: Hong Kong<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 4.0%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 664.0x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

China Mobile Limited is a leading mobile services provider in China, boasting the world’s largest mobile<br />

network and the world’s largest mobile subscriber base. The company operates nationwide mobile<br />

telecommunications networks in all 31 provinces, autonomous regions and directly-administered<br />

municipalities in Mainland China and in Hong Kong SAR (Special Administrative Region) through its<br />

subsidiaries.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (RMB m) 292,346 332,946 385,594 439,989 505,715<br />

Gross Debt (RMB m) 33,664 28,685 28,685 28,685 28,685<br />

Interest Expense (RMB m) (919) (651) (645) (645) (645)<br />

EBIT (RMB m) 153,517 157,155 149,845 155,110 150,137<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 5.8% 4.4% 4.0% 3.6% 3.3%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 124.2% 137.1% 152.6% 168.6% 192.6%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.1x 0.1x 0.1x 0.1x 0.1x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 261.3x 33.1x 386.9x 407.9x 416.0x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 167.0x 241.4x 232.2x 240.3x 232.6x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (RMB m) 485,231 527,999 549,875 585,509 602,447<br />

% Change (YoY) 7.3% 8.8% 4.1% 6.5% 2.9%<br />

EBITDA (RMB m) 240,107 254,647 249,710 263,232 268,468<br />

% of Sales 49.5% 48.2% 45.4% 45.0% 44.6%<br />

Net Income (RMB m) 119,640 125,870 122,050 127,296 125,101<br />

% of Sales 24.7% 23.8% 22.2% 21.7% 20.8%<br />

Free Cash Flow (RMB m) 118,014 103,340 95,613 95,671 105,636<br />

% of Sales 24.3% 19.6% 17.4% 16.3% 17.5%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 264,507 292,346 332,946 385,594 439,989<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 118,014 103,340 95,613 95,671 105,636<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 382,521 395,686 428,559 481,265 545,625<br />

Principal Repayments 0 5,330 0 0 0<br />

Interest Payments 919 651 645 645 645<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 919 5,981 645 645 645<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 416.2x 66.2x 664.0x 745.7x 845.4x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In RMB m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 332,946 10,317.3%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 536,017 16,610.1%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 868,963 26,927.4%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 868,963 26,927.4%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 3,227 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(RMB m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 1,234,679 1,456,299 1,477,244<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 28,685 28,685 28,685<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

450.0x<br />

300.0x<br />

400.0x<br />

350.0x<br />

250.0x<br />

300.0x<br />

200.0x<br />

250.0x<br />

200.0x<br />

150.0x<br />

150.0x<br />

100.0x<br />

100.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

800.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EC738343 Corp At Maturity Company Guarantee RMB 5,000.0 5,000.0 100.00 28-Oct-2002 28-Oct-2017 4.50% 1<br />

84 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

700.0x<br />

600.0x<br />

500.0x<br />

400.0x<br />

300.0x<br />

200.0x<br />

100.0x<br />

2.3%<br />

97.7%<br />

1.9% 1.9%<br />

98.1% 98.1%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

114<br />

104<br />

94<br />

84<br />

74<br />

416.2x<br />

66.2x<br />

664.0x<br />

745.7x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

64<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

China Mobile Ltd.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (RMB m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 485,231 527,999 549,875 585,509 602,447<br />

Operating Expenses (245,124) (273,352) (300,165) (322,278) (333,978)<br />

EBITDA 240,107 254,647 249,710 263,232 268,468<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (86,590) (97,492) (99,865) (108,121) (118,332)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 153,517 157,155 149,845 155,110 150,137<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 4,756 7,848 11,929 13,802 15,904<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 3,021 3,130 2,980 3,095 3,218<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 540 4,305 4,598 5,081 5,615<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 159,071 166,582 163,060 170,069 167,136<br />

Taxes on Profit (39,047) (40,603) (40,765) (42,517) (41,784)<br />

Minority Interests (384) (109) (245) (255) (251)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 119,640 125,870 122,050 127,296 125,101<br />

Balance Sheet (RMB m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 385,296 408,165 429,592 444,006 444,812<br />

Long-term Investments 127 127 127 127 127<br />

Associates 40,183 43,801 48,399 53,481 59,095<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 37,707 37,712 37,663 37,614 37,565<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 540,103 569,873 601,813 623,253 629,298<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 29,486 49,739 32,446 38,555 37,277<br />

Total Current Assets 321,832 382,685 418,040 478,543 542,993<br />

Total Assets 861,935 952,558 1,019,853 1,101,797 1,172,290<br />

Shareholders' Equity 576,157 649,064 717,744 791,488 862,300<br />

Total Equity 577,403 650,419 719,320 793,292 864,330<br />

Long Term Debt 28,615 28,617 28,617 28,617 28,617<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 28,902 28,895 29,510 29,485 29,482<br />

Total Current Liabilities 255,630 273,244 271,023 279,019 278,478<br />

Total Liabilities 284,532 302,139 300,533 308,504 307,960<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 861,935 952,558 1,019,853 1,101,797 1,172,290<br />

Cash Flow Statement (RMB m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 159,071 166,582 163,060 170,069 167,136<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 86,590 97,492 99,865 108,121 118,332<br />

Tax Paid (38,868) (40,078) (40,268) (42,022) (41,836)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 23,056 5,426 11,067 (3,812) (3,223)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 231,379 226,756 227,613 225,671 230,636<br />

Capital Expenditure (113,365) (123,416) (132,000) (130,000) (125,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (39,625) 263 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (171,572) (169,356) (160,926) (167,052) (159,950)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 0 (5,330) 0 0 0<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 93 136 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (50,201) (52,575) (53,370) (53,553) (54,289)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (51,051) (58,420) (54,040) (54,224) (54,960)<br />

Change in Cash 8,756 (1,020) 12,648 4,395 15,727<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 49.5% 48.2% 45.4% 45.0% 44.6%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 31.6% 29.8% 27.3% 26.5% 24.9%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 24.7% 23.8% 22.2% 21.7% 20.8%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 22.1% 20.5% 17.9% 16.9% 15.1%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 19.7% 18.2% 16.5% 16.0% 14.7%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 41.7% 40.9% 36.4% 36.1% 34.2%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 5.8% 4.4% 4.0% 3.6% 3.3%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 149.0% 148.1% 144.3% 140.6% 137.5%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 261.3x 33.1x 386.9x 407.9x 416.0x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 167.0x 241.4x 232.2x 240.3x 232.6x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 34.2% 31.6% 36.5% 37.0% 42.7%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 125.9% 140.1% 154.2% 171.5% 195.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 124.2% 137.1% 152.6% 168.6% 192.6%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

85 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


China National Building Material Co., Ltd (3323 HK)<br />

Sector: Materials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Materials<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.2x<br />

Country: Hong Kong<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 188.2%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.4x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

China National Building Material Co., Ltd. is a state owned enterprise based in Beijing that was founded<br />

on March 28, 2005. The company is engaged in the manufacture and sale of cement, lightweight<br />

building materials, glass fiber and composite materials and also provides engineering services. The<br />

company derives majority of its revenue (close to two-thirds) from the sale of cement. In recent years,<br />

the company has acquired smaller scale cement producers in Eastern and North-eastern China through<br />

its subsidiaries, South Cement (80% owned) and North Cement (55% owned). This market consolidation<br />

exercise has helped the company to establish itself as the largest cement producer in China with a total<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (RMB m) 8,536 10,038 11,513 15,478 12,317<br />

Gross Debt (RMB m) 59,118 85,866 82,748 87,575 76,852<br />

Interest Expense (RMB m) (2,935) (4,176) (4,935) (4,874) (4,750)<br />

EBIT (RMB m) 6,535 14,720 10,224 13,885 16,775<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 211.9% 228.3% 188.2% 163.8% 118.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 58.1% 47.0% 108.7% 135.0% 137.1%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 5.8x 4.1x 6.1x 4.8x 3.9x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.2x 0.3x 0.2x 0.6x 0.7x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 2.2x 3.5x 2.1x 2.8x 3.5x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (RMB m) 51,988 80,058 81,507 91,887 102,310<br />

% Change (YoY) 56.1% 54.0% 1.8% 12.7% 11.3%<br />

EBITDA (RMB m) 8,561 17,473 13,771 17,797 20,911<br />

% of Sales 16.5% 21.8% 16.9% 19.4% 20.4%<br />

Net Income (RMB m) 3,369 8,015 4,141 6,411 7,927<br />

% of Sales 6.5% 10.0% 5.1% 7.0% 7.7%<br />

Free Cash Flow (RMB m) (3,688) (235) 10,625 3,789 12,137<br />

% of Sales (7.1%) (0.3%) 13.0% 4.1% 11.9%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 4,158 8,536 10,038 11,513 15,478<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (3,688) (235) 10,625 3,789 12,137<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 470 8,302 20,662 15,302 27,616<br />

Principal Repayments 40,252 39,439 53,118 20,173 20,723<br />

Interest Payments 2,935 4,176 4,935 4,874 4,750<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 43,187 43,614 58,053 25,048 25,473<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.0x 0.2x 0.4x 0.6x 1.1x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In RMB m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 10,038 5.9%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 48,670 28.6%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 58,708 34.5%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 26,229 15.4%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 84,936 49.9%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 170,095 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(RMB m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 38,593 49,220 52,314<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 85,866 82,748 87,575<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

0.7x<br />

0.1x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EI894016 Corp At Maturity Unsecured RMB 5,000.0 5,000.0 100.00 06-Dec-2011 06-Dec-2014 5.06% 1<br />

EI828413 Corp At Maturity Unsecured RMB 3,000.0 3,000.0 100.00 12-Oct-2011 12-Oct-2014 6.06% 1<br />

86 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

69.0%<br />

31.0%<br />

62.7% 62.6%<br />

37.3% 37.4%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

0.6x<br />

4.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

3.5x<br />

3.0x<br />

0.4x<br />

2.5x<br />

0.3x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.2x<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.1x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

0.6x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.3x<br />

0.2x<br />

14.05<br />

12.05<br />

10.05<br />

8.05<br />

0.2x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.6x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

6.05<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

China National Building Material Co., Ltd


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (RMB m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 51,988 80,058 81,507 91,887 102,310<br />

Operating Expenses (43,427) (62,586) (67,736) (74,090) (81,399)<br />

EBITDA 8,561 17,473 13,771 17,797 20,911<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (2,026) (2,753) (3,547) (3,912) (4,136)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 6,535 14,720 10,224 13,885 16,775<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (2,579) (3,859) (4,619) (4,498) (4,367)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 1,914 2,768 2,776 2,774 2,723<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 198 686 617 729 854<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 6,104 14,315 8,998 12,890 15,985<br />

Taxes on Profit (1,361) (3,569) (2,149) (3,123) (3,896)<br />

Minority Interests (1,374) (2,731) (2,707) (3,357) (4,162)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 3,369 8,015 4,141 6,411 7,927<br />

Balance Sheet (RMB m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 46,643 64,245 71,103 73,936 73,991<br />

Long-term Investments 149 503 503 503 503<br />

Associates 3,152 4,788 5,724 6,766 7,927<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 10,515 17,048 17,167 17,297 17,440<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 75,581 109,502 114,185 116,519 116,707<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 27,400 38,855 36,525 50,757 53,976<br />

Total Current Assets 35,936 48,893 48,037 66,236 66,293<br />

Total Assets 111,516 158,395 162,222 182,755 183,000<br />

Shareholders' Equity 19,162 26,332 29,971 36,121 43,644<br />

Total Equity 27,898 37,611 43,957 53,464 65,149<br />

Long Term Debt 30,930 32,748 75,075 85,602 72,529<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 34,149 37,433 78,818 88,428 74,443<br />

Total Current Liabilities 49,469 83,351 39,446 40,863 43,408<br />

Total Liabilities 83,618 120,784 118,265 129,290 117,851<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 111,516 158,395 162,222 182,755 183,000<br />

Cash Flow Statement (RMB m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 6,104 14,315 8,998 12,890 15,985<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 2,026 2,753 3,547 3,912 4,136<br />

Tax Paid (927) (2,738) (2,129) (2,626) (3,261)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (3,895) (5,977) 4,864 (7,638) (3,800)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 6,032 12,054 18,832 9,940 16,238<br />

Capital Expenditure (9,720) (12,288) (8,207) (6,150) (4,100)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (1,801) (6,657) 501 617 689<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (17,203) (24,846) (7,834) (5,749) (3,710)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 14,408 22,873 (3,118) 4,827 (10,723)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 2,925 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (174) (502) (502) (261) (404)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 15,300 14,529 (9,623) (325) (15,789)<br />

Change in Cash 4,130 1,737 1,375 3,866 (3,261)<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 16.5% 21.8% 16.9% 19.4% 20.4%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 12.6% 18.4% 12.5% 15.1% 16.4%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 6.5% 10.0% 5.1% 7.0% 7.7%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 21.0% 35.2% 14.7% 19.4% 19.9%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 7.1% 11.1% 6.6% 8.3% 9.4%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 7.7% 11.6% 6.9% 9.0% 10.4%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 211.9% 228.3% 188.2% 163.8% 118.0%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 183.3% 202.4% 163.0% 135.8% 100.0%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 588.1% 593.3% 569.5% 522.0% 458.5%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.2x 0.3x 0.2x 0.6x 0.7x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 2.2x 3.5x 2.1x 2.8x 3.5x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 16.1% 11.7% 28.2% 36.7% 27.0%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 72.6% 58.7% 121.8% 162.1% 152.7%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 58.1% 47.0% 108.7% 135.0% 137.1%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

87 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. - H Share (386 HK)<br />

Sector: Energy Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Energy<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.4x<br />

Country: China<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 42.8%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.7x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec Corp.) is an integrated energy and chemical<br />

company in China. The Company, through its subsidiaries, is engaged in oil and gas and chemical<br />

operations in the People’s Republic of China. Its principal operations consist of exploration, development<br />

and production of crude oil and natural gas; transportation of crude oil, natural gas by pipelines; refining<br />

crude oil into finished petroleum products, and marketing crude oil, natural gas and refined petroleum<br />

products like gasoline, diesel & kerosene. Its chemical operations include the manufacturing and<br />

marketing of a wide range of chemicals for industrial use.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (RMB m) 18,140 25,197 28,459 35,357 27,899<br />

Gross Debt (RMB m) 209,903 234,830 234,457 234,457 203,862<br />

Interest Expense (RMB m) (6,739) (6,899) (12,088) (11,879) (11,345)<br />

EBIT (RMB m) 104,974 105,530 95,429 106,349 125,576<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 46.5% 46.3% 42.8% 39.5% 31.1%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 30.8% 31.4% 38.6% 37.7% 39.8%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 1.3x 1.3x 1.4x 1.3x 1.1x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.2x 0.2x 1.4x 15.4x 4.1x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 15.6x 15.3x 7.9x 9.0x 11.1x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (RMB m) 1,913,182 2,505,683 2,691,427 2,673,191 2,670,192<br />

% Change (YoY) 42.2% 31.0% 7.4% (0.7%) (0.1%)<br />

EBITDA (RMB m) 164,227 169,346 165,898 182,546 207,629<br />

% of Sales 8.6% 6.8% 6.2% 6.8% 7.8%<br />

Net Income (RMB m) 71,782 73,225 63,544 71,902 86,091<br />

% of Sales 3.8% 2.9% 2.4% 2.7% 3.2%<br />

Free Cash Flow (RMB m) 56,570 8,368 39,573 44,040 59,375<br />

% of Sales 3.0% 0.3% 1.5% 1.6% 2.2%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 10,018 18,140 25,197 28,459 35,357<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 56,570 8,368 39,573 44,040 59,375<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 66,588 26,508 64,770 72,498 94,732<br />

Principal Repayments 703,804 538,703 80,373 0 30,595<br />

Interest Payments 6,739 6,899 12,088 11,879 11,345<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 710,543 545,602 92,461 11,879 41,940<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.1x 0.0x 0.7x 6.1x 2.3x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In RMB m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 25,197 14.4%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 302,920 172.8%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 328,117 187.2%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 328,117 187.2%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 175,313 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

31.2% 31.9% 31.9%<br />

68.8% 68.1% 68.1%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(RMB m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 518,821 500,641 500,641<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 234,830 234,457 234,457<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

18.0x<br />

18.0x<br />

16.0x<br />

16.0x<br />

14.0x<br />

14.0x<br />

12.0x<br />

12.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

7.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.7x<br />

0.1x 0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EH219036 Corp At Maturity Company Guarantee RMB 30,000.0 30,000.0 100.00 20-Feb-2008 20-Feb-2014 0.80% 1<br />

EI585442 Corp Convertible Company Guarantee RMB 23,000.0 22,142.7 100.00 23-Feb-2011 23-Feb-2017 0.70% 1<br />

EJ095309 Corp At Maturity Company Guarantee RMB 13,000.0 13,000.0 100.00 01-Jun-2012 01-Jun-2017 4.26% 1<br />

88 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

6.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

6.1x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

11.47<br />

10.47<br />

9.47<br />

8.47<br />

7.47<br />

6.47<br />

5.47<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. - H Share


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (RMB m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 1,913,182 2,505,683 2,691,427 2,673,191 2,670,192<br />

Operating Expenses (1,748,955) (2,336,337) (2,525,528) (2,490,645) (2,462,562)<br />

EBITDA 164,227 169,346 165,898 182,546 207,629<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (59,253) (63,816) (70,470) (76,197) (82,053)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 104,974 105,530 95,429 106,349 125,576<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (7,312) (7,657) (10,935) (10,507) (9,986)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 611 2,540 488 135 137<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 5,390 4,152 1,827 2,777 3,303<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 103,663 104,565 86,809 98,753 119,031<br />

Taxes on Profit (25,681) (26,120) (18,702) (21,688) (26,758)<br />

Minority Interests (6,200) (5,220) (4,563) (5,163) (6,182)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 71,782 73,225 63,544 71,902 86,091<br />

Balance Sheet (RMB m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 540,700 565,936 593,246 617,993 637,788<br />

Long-term Investments 2,075 1,829 1,829 1,829 1,829<br />

Associates 43,014 45,684 46,282 47,190 48,270<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 8,298 8,212 8,212 8,212 8,212<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 735,593 801,773 840,520 870,591 892,701<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 242,089 317,558 338,835 344,123 358,194<br />

Total Current Assets 260,229 342,755 367,294 379,480 386,092<br />

Total Assets 995,822 1,144,528 1,207,814 1,250,071 1,278,793<br />

Shareholders' Equity 419,604 472,328 509,321 552,501 610,141<br />

Total Equity 451,036 507,344 547,316 593,868 655,546<br />

Long Term Debt 174,075 154,457 234,457 203,862 192,862<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 208,380 192,944 272,944 242,349 231,349<br />

Total Current Liabilities 336,406 444,240 387,553 413,854 391,898<br />

Total Liabilities 544,786 637,184 660,497 656,203 623,247<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 995,822 1,144,528 1,207,814 1,250,071 1,278,793<br />

Cash Flow Statement (RMB m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 103,663 104,565 86,809 98,753 119,031<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 59,253 63,816 70,470 76,197 82,053<br />

Tax Paid (14,158) (29,798) (20,026) (21,489) (26,126)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 1,027 3,606 4,238 (9,782) (17,063)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 170,333 150,622 155,435 156,880 170,200<br />

Capital Expenditure (113,763) (142,254) (115,863) (112,840) (110,825)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 6,503 (3,233) 1,770 1,875 1,983<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (105,788) (140,449) (111,529) (107,586) (105,121)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (19,313) 25,583 (373) 0 (30,595)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 2 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (16,391) (19,469) (26,551) (28,721) (28,451)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (56,294) (2,516) (40,596) (42,392) (72,537)<br />

Change in Cash 8,251 7,657 3,310 6,902 (7,457)<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 8.6% 6.8% 6.2% 6.8% 7.8%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 5.5% 4.2% 3.5% 4.0% 4.7%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 3.8% 2.9% 2.4% 2.7% 3.2%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 18.0% 16.4% 12.9% 13.5% 14.8%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 11.2% 10.0% 8.2% 8.8% 10.0%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 12.7% 11.8% 10.3% 10.9% 12.2%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 46.5% 46.3% 42.8% 39.5% 31.1%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 42.8% 41.4% 37.7% 33.6% 26.9%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 237.2% 240.0% 239.6% 231.5% 217.5%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.2x 0.2x 1.4x 15.4x 4.1x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 15.6x 15.3x 7.9x 9.0x 11.1x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 5.1% 5.5% 7.2% 8.4% 7.0%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 77.4% 77.2% 94.8% 91.7% 98.5%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 30.8% 31.4% 38.6% 37.7% 39.8%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

89 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


China Railway Construction Corp. Ltd.- H Share (1186 HK)<br />

Sector: Industrials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Capital Goods<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.3x<br />

Country: China<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 73.3%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.4x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

China Railway Construction Corporation Limited (CRCC), a subsidiary of state owned China Railway<br />

Construction Corporation (CRCCG), is one of the largest integrated construction groups in the world.<br />

CRCC’s business covers project contracting, survey design consultation, industrial manufacturing and<br />

other business operations such as real estate development and logistics.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (RMB m) 65,282 83,105 41,440 47,672 54,728<br />

Gross Debt (RMB m) 40,105 87,983 52,857 50,442 46,356<br />

Interest Expense (RMB m) (170) (1,605) (2,890) (2,392) (2,055)<br />

EBIT (RMB m) 6,850 12,395 12,402 15,012 17,191<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 68.9% 133.9% 73.3% 62.4% 51.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 88.4% 89.2% 89.0% 88.5% 93.7%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 2.3x 2.9x 3.2x 2.0x 1.7x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.5x 0.7x 0.3x 0.8x 1.4x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 40.3x 7.7x 4.3x 6.3x 8.4x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (RMB m) 470,159 457,366 445,906 519,183 567,944<br />

% Change (YoY) 32.2% (2.7%) (2.5%) 16.4% 9.4%<br />

EBITDA (RMB m) 14,656 21,782 22,267 25,993 28,704<br />

% of Sales 3.1% 4.8% 5.0% 5.0% 5.1%<br />

Net Income (RMB m) 4,246 7,854 7,599 9,947 11,853<br />

% of Sales 0.9% 1.7% 1.7% 1.9% 2.1%<br />

Free Cash Flow (RMB m) (10,592) (23,025) (515) 13,448 15,720<br />

% of Sales (2.3%) (5.0%) (0.1%) 2.6% 2.8%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 65,050 65,282 83,105 41,440 47,672<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (10,592) (23,025) (515) 13,448 15,720<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 54,458 42,258 82,590 54,889 63,392<br />

Principal Repayments 20,301 24,907 55,127 22,415 14,086<br />

Interest Payments 170 1,605 2,890 2,392 2,055<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 20,471 26,513 58,017 24,807 16,140<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 2.7x 1.6x 1.4x 2.2x 3.9x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In RMB m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 83,105 63.9%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 54,909 42.2%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 138,014 106.1%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 138,014 106.1%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 130,100 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(RMB m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 40,966 62,310 62,310<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 87,983 52,857 50,442<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

0.9x<br />

45.0x<br />

0.8x<br />

40.0x<br />

0.7x<br />

35.0x<br />

0.6x<br />

30.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

25.0x<br />

0.4x<br />

20.0x<br />

0.3x<br />

15.0x<br />

0.2x<br />

10.0x<br />

0.1x<br />

5.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

3.0x<br />

2.7x<br />

2.5x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EJ283977 Corp At Maturity Unsecured RMB 10,000.0 10,000.0 100.00 19-Jul-2012 19-Jul-2013 3.60% 1<br />

EI838818 Corp At Maturity Unsecured RMB 7,500.0 7,500.0 100.00 18-Oct-2011 18-Oct-2018 6.28% 1<br />

EI385533 Corp At Maturity Unsecured RMB 5,000.0 5,000.0 100.00 31-Aug-2010 31-Aug-2015 3.78% 1<br />

90 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

68.2%<br />

31.8%<br />

45.9% 44.7%<br />

54.1% 55.3%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

2.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

11.54<br />

9.54<br />

7.54<br />

5.54<br />

1.6x<br />

1.4x<br />

2.2x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

3.54<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

China Railway Construction Corp. Ltd. - H Share


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (RMB m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 470,159 457,366 445,906 519,183 567,944<br />

Operating Expenses (455,503) (435,584) (423,640) (493,190) (539,240)<br />

EBITDA 14,656 21,782 22,267 25,993 28,704<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (7,806) (9,388) (9,865) (10,981) (11,513)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 6,850 12,395 12,402 15,012 17,191<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (414) (1,717) (2,515) (2,017) (1,680)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) (598) (826) (375) (375) (375)<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 2 78 81 87 94<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 6,089 10,056 9,756 12,894 15,434<br />

Taxes on Profit (1,772) (2,174) (2,119) (2,877) (3,485)<br />

Minority Interests (70) (28) (38) (70) (96)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 4,246 7,854 7,599 9,947 11,853<br />

Balance Sheet (RMB m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 35,172 38,507 41,429 42,726 43,444<br />

Long-term Investments 2,611 2,549 2,549 2,549 2,549<br />

Associates 1,855 2,139 2,386 2,638 2,895<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 6,373 6,791 6,538 6,288 6,042<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 58,269 62,659 66,816 68,867 70,062<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 226,714 277,220 269,164 315,983 299,478<br />

Total Current Assets 291,996 360,324 310,604 363,655 354,206<br />

Total Assets 350,265 422,983 377,420 432,522 424,268<br />

Shareholders' Equity 57,403 64,748 71,113 79,845 89,908<br />

Total Equity 58,231 65,719 72,091 80,844 90,945<br />

Long Term Debt 22,677 32,357 29,943 35,857 31,771<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 29,225 38,522 36,159 42,127 38,096<br />

Total Current Liabilities 262,809 318,742 269,170 309,551 295,227<br />

Total Liabilities 292,034 357,264 305,329 351,678 333,323<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 350,265 422,983 377,420 432,522 424,268<br />

Cash Flow Statement (RMB m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 6,089 10,056 9,756 12,894 15,434<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 7,806 9,388 9,865 10,981 11,513<br />

Tax Paid 3,383 (1,001) (6,253) (3,889) (3,606)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (34,376) (35,650) 47 (24,719) 3,591<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 6,423 (10,971) 13,485 26,948 29,220<br />

Capital Expenditure (17,014) (12,054) (14,000) (13,500) (13,500)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (139) 1,027 1,351 1,558 1,688<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (15,525) (10,603) (12,616) (11,906) (11,774)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 13,930 46,307 (35,127) (2,415) (4,086)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (1,974) (1,234) (1,234) (1,216) (1,791)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 10,189 40,044 (42,534) (8,811) (10,389)<br />

Change in Cash 1,086 18,470 (41,664) 6,231 7,056<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 3.1% 4.8% 5.0% 5.0% 5.1%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 1.5% 2.7% 2.8% 2.9% 3.0%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 0.9% 1.7% 1.7% 1.9% 2.1%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 7.7% 12.9% 11.2% 13.2% 14.0%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 2.4% 3.6% 3.4% 3.9% 4.3%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 17.8% 18.1% 12.4% 13.8% 15.8%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 68.9% 133.9% 73.3% 62.4% 51.0%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - 7.5% 15.9% 3.5% -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 572.2% 633.0% 589.1% 536.5% 504.7%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.5x 0.7x 0.3x 0.8x 1.4x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 40.3x 7.7x 4.3x 6.3x 8.4x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 24.8% 26.1% 15.4% 15.4% 18.5%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 111.1% 113.0% 115.4% 117.5% 120.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 88.4% 89.2% 89.0% 88.5% 93.7%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

91 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


China Railway Group Limited - H Share (390 HK)<br />

Sector: Industrials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Capital Goods<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.2x<br />

Country: China<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 150.2%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.4x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

China Railway is an integrated construction group that encompasses infrastructure construction, survey,<br />

design and consulting services, engineering equipment and component manufacturing, property<br />

development and other businesses. The Company has 46 subsidiaries, including 28 wholly owned<br />

subsidiaries, 15 holding subsidiaries, 4 branch companies and 3 joint venture subsidiaries.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (RMB m) 55,080 60,314 85,030 35,759 35,330<br />

Gross Debt (RMB m) 85,460 130,576 129,086 79,038 65,646<br />

Interest Expense (RMB m) (3,154) (5,799) (7,790) (6,244) (4,341)<br />

EBIT (RMB m) 10,044 10,770 11,469 13,416 14,961<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 115.3% 160.8% 150.2% 85.3% 64.9%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 101.4% 106.0% 104.2% 104.6% 103.0%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 4.7x 6.3x 7.0x 4.9x 3.1x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.3x 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x 1.0x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 3.2x 1.9x 1.5x 2.1x 3.4x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (RMB m) 456,162 442,216 446,343 487,733 515,401<br />

% Change (YoY) 36.6% (3.1%) 0.9% 9.3% 5.7%<br />

EBITDA (RMB m) 15,164 17,139 18,523 21,216 23,451<br />

% of Sales 3.3% 3.9% 4.2% 4.3% 4.5%<br />

Net Income (RMB m) 7,398 6,690 5,376 6,977 8,802<br />

% of Sales 1.6% 1.5% 1.2% 1.4% 1.7%<br />

Free Cash Flow (RMB m) (12,250) (22,695) 29,118 2,709 14,240<br />

% of Sales (2.7%) (5.1%) 6.5% 0.6% 2.8%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 49,513 55,080 60,314 85,030 35,759<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (12,250) (22,695) 29,118 2,709 14,240<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 37,263 32,385 89,432 87,739 49,999<br />

Principal Repayments 42,811 52,864 56,490 60,048 13,392<br />

Interest Payments 3,154 5,799 7,790 6,244 4,341<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 45,965 58,663 64,280 66,292 17,733<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.8x 0.6x 1.4x 1.3x 2.8x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In RMB m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 60,314 35.8%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 62,685 37.2%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 122,999 72.9%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 122,999 72.9%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 168,702 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(RMB m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 47,281 56,169 56,169<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 130,576 129,086 79,038<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

1.6x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EI610883 Corp Puttable Unsecured RMB 8,000.0 8,000.0 100.00 23-Mar-2011 23-Mar-2021 5.23% 1<br />

EI124708 Corp At Maturity Company Guarantee RMB 5,000.0 5,000.0 100.00 27-Jan-2010 27-Jan-2020 4.88% 1<br />

EI839779 Corp Puttable Unsecured RMB 4,000.0 4,000.0 100.00 17-Oct-2011 17-Oct-2018 6.08% 1<br />

92 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

73.4%<br />

26.6%<br />

69.7%<br />

30.3%<br />

58.5%<br />

41.5%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

0.3x<br />

3.5x<br />

0.3x<br />

3.0x<br />

0.2x<br />

2.5x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.2x<br />

1.5x<br />

0.1x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.1x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

1.4x<br />

1.2x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.8x<br />

0.6x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.8x<br />

0.6x<br />

1.4x<br />

1.3x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

5.49<br />

4.99<br />

4.49<br />

3.99<br />

3.49<br />

2.99<br />

2.49<br />

1.99<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

China Railway Group Limited - H Share


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (RMB m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 456,162 442,216 446,343 487,733 515,401<br />

Operating Expenses (440,998) (425,077) (427,820) (466,516) (491,951)<br />

EBITDA 15,164 17,139 18,523 21,216 23,451<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (5,120) (6,369) (7,054) (7,801) (8,490)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 10,044 10,770 11,469 13,416 14,961<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (1,226) (2,686) (4,466) (3,190) (1,890)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 1,571 2,506 1,539 791 721<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 (111) 108 110 139<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 10,548 9,998 8,228 10,633 13,393<br />

Taxes on Profit (2,337) (2,758) (2,255) (2,881) (3,613)<br />

Minority Interests (813) (550) (597) (775) (978)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 7,398 6,690 5,376 6,977 8,802<br />

Balance Sheet (RMB m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 31,243 32,788 37,093 39,697 41,309<br />

Long-term Investments 4,287 4,580 3,893 3,309 2,813<br />

Associates 4,887 3,738 3,677 3,619 3,593<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 29,936 38,546 38,917 39,271 39,608<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 92,867 108,461 108,708 109,708 110,382<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 243,652 299,785 297,056 313,237 319,037<br />

Total Current Assets 298,732 360,099 382,086 348,996 354,367<br />

Total Assets 391,599 468,560 490,794 458,704 464,749<br />

Shareholders' Equity 66,978 71,849 76,203 82,373 90,128<br />

Total Equity 74,118 81,179 85,951 92,664 101,104<br />

Long Term Debt 44,460 73,901 68,853 65,461 57,643<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 52,501 81,809 76,955 73,645 65,918<br />

Total Current Liabilities 264,980 305,572 327,888 292,395 297,728<br />

Total Liabilities 317,481 387,381 404,843 366,040 363,646<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 391,599 468,560 490,794 458,704 464,749<br />

Cash Flow Statement (RMB m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 10,548 9,998 8,228 10,633 13,393<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 5,120 6,369 7,054 7,801 8,490<br />

Tax Paid (1,960) (2,712) (2,778) (2,845) (3,344)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (13,991) (30,275) 22,004 (6,294) 3,564<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 1,012 (13,483) 39,218 12,809 24,340<br />

Capital Expenditure (13,262) (9,212) (10,100) (10,100) (10,100)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (787) 229 1,603 1,614 1,671<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (16,416) (11,710) (4,021) (4,749) (5,697)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 27,381 37,914 (1,490) (50,048) (13,392)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 409 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (3,747) (1,171) (1,022) (806) (1,047)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 20,918 30,600 (10,481) (57,331) (19,072)<br />

Change in Cash 5,514 5,407 24,716 (49,270) (429)<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 3.3% 3.9% 4.2% 4.3% 4.5%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 2.2% 2.4% 2.6% 2.8% 2.9%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 1.6% 1.5% 1.2% 1.4% 1.7%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 11.5% 9.6% 7.3% 8.8% 10.2%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 3.2% 2.8% 2.8% 3.2% 3.5%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 8.9% 6.1% 5.9% 7.3% 8.1%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 115.3% 160.8% 150.2% 85.3% 64.9%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 41.2% 86.6% 51.3% 46.8% 30.0%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 549.4% 619.6% 648.0% 598.8% 535.3%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.3x 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x 1.0x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 3.2x 1.9x 1.5x 2.1x 3.4x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 20.7% 19.7% 25.9% 12.2% 11.8%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 112.7% 117.8% 116.5% 119.4% 119.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 101.4% 106.0% 104.2% 104.6% 103.0%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

93 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


China Resources Enterprise Ltd. (291 HK)<br />

Sector: Consumer Staples Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Food & Staples Retailing<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.4x<br />

Country: Hong Kong<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 33.5%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 2.1x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

China Resources Enterprise, Limited focuses on the consumer businesses in both the Chinese Mainland<br />

and Hong Kong. It exited its non-core businesses at the end of 2009 to focus on its core consumer<br />

businesses, namely retail, beer, food and beverage. Its ultimate holding company is China Resources<br />

National Corporation.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (HK$ m) 14,305 18,514 19,414 17,041 20,394<br />

Gross Debt (HK$ m) 12,309 15,534 17,127 14,884 12,299<br />

Interest Expense (HK$ m) (125) (159) (245) (240) (204)<br />

EBIT (HK$ m) 2,405 2,833 1,649 2,258 3,758<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 29.8% 31.7% 33.5% 27.5% 21.1%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 56.5% 56.6% 54.7% 48.2% 48.0%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 2.5x 2.4x 3.2x 2.6x 1.7x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.7x 0.7x 0.4x 0.5x 0.6x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 19.2x 17.8x 6.7x 9.4x 18.4x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (HK$ m) 86,728 110,164 127,853 151,872 176,359<br />

% Change (YoY) 35.2% 27.0% 16.1% 18.8% 16.1%<br />

EBITDA (HK$ m) 4,981 5,727 5,114 6,075 7,936<br />

% of Sales 5.7% 5.2% 4.0% 4.0% 4.5%<br />

Net Income (HK$ m) 5,674 2,832 2,384 2,955 4,057<br />

% of Sales 6.5% 2.6% 1.9% 1.9% 2.3%<br />

Free Cash Flow (HK$ m) 2,942 702 (262) 186 6,463<br />

% of Sales 3.4% 0.6% (0.2%) 0.1% 3.7%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 8,816 14,305 18,514 19,414 17,041<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2,942 702 (262) 186 6,463<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 11,758 15,007 18,252 19,600 23,504<br />

Principal Repayments 5,196 6,067 8,559 8,743 9,085<br />

Interest Payments 125 159 245 240 204<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 5,321 6,226 8,804 8,983 9,289<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 2.2x 2.4x 2.1x 2.2x 2.5x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In HK$ m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 18,514 42.5%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 22,898 52.5%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 41,412 95.0%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 41,412 95.0%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 43,611 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

94 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

19.5% 20.3% 17.9%<br />

80.5% 79.7% 82.1%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(HK$ m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 63,933 67,052 68,132<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 15,534 17,127 14,884<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

0.8x<br />

25.0x<br />

0.7x<br />

0.6x<br />

20.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.4x<br />

15.0x<br />

0.3x<br />

10.0x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.1x<br />

5.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

2.5x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

2.4x<br />

2.3x<br />

2.2x<br />

2.1x<br />

2.0x<br />

2.2x<br />

2.4x<br />

2.1x<br />

1.9x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

36<br />

31<br />

26<br />

21<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

2.2x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

16<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

China Resources Enterprise Ltd.<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (HK$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 86,728 110,164 127,853 151,872 176,359<br />

Operating Expenses (81,747) (104,437) (122,739) (145,797) (168,423)<br />

EBITDA 4,981 5,727 5,114 6,075 7,936<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (2,576) (2,894) (3,465) (3,816) (4,179)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 2,405 2,833 1,649 2,258 3,758<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 48 138 110 101 147<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 2,345 2,417 2,770 3,223 3,661<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 27 10 30 31 31<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 5,012 5,426 4,559 5,613 7,596<br />

Taxes on Profit (1,395) (1,556) (1,302) (1,576) (2,053)<br />

Minority Interests (965) (1,038) (873) (1,082) (1,485)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 3,022 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 5,674 2,832 2,384 2,955 4,057<br />

Balance Sheet (HK$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 25,525 29,776 32,151 34,574 36,373<br />

Long-term Investments 9,927 11,211 12,254 13,396 14,642<br />

Associates 376 432 438 443 449<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 9,873 11,065 11,048 11,032 11,015<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 52,582 62,835 68,223 72,983 76,425<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 22,515 32,300 35,403 41,731 48,780<br />

Total Current Assets 36,820 50,814 54,816 58,771 69,175<br />

Total Assets 89,402 113,649 123,040 131,754 145,599<br />

Shareholders' Equity 30,819 36,354 37,657 39,588 42,325<br />

Total Equity 41,289 48,982 51,100 54,042 58,166<br />

Long Term Debt 8,158 8,442 8,568 6,141 3,214<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 10,615 11,470 11,610 9,164 6,176<br />

Total Current Liabilities 37,498 53,197 60,330 68,548 81,258<br />

Total Liabilities 48,113 64,667 71,939 77,712 87,434<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 89,402 113,649 123,040 131,754 145,599<br />

Cash Flow Statement (HK$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 5,012 5,426 4,559 5,613 7,596<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 2,576 2,894 3,465 3,816 4,179<br />

Tax Paid (991) (1,680) (1,430) (1,553) (1,932)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 1,575 2,233 2,672 1,672 5,179<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 6,979 7,799 8,038 8,186 13,463<br />

Capital Expenditure (4,037) (7,097) (8,300) (8,000) (7,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 3,788 (1,565) 572 653 722<br />

Cash Flow from Investing 70 (8,009) (7,348) (6,981) (5,902)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 86 3,049 1,593 (2,243) (2,585)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 26 11 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (1,299) (1,340) (1,139) (1,095) (1,419)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (1,455) 4,698 209 (3,578) (4,208)<br />

Change in Cash 5,594 4,488 900 (2,373) 3,354<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 5.7% 5.2% 4.0% 4.0% 4.5%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 2.8% 2.6% 1.3% 1.5% 2.1%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 6.5% 2.6% 1.9% 1.9% 2.3%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 20.0% 8.4% 6.4% 7.7% 9.9%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 3.1% 3.1% 1.7% 2.0% 3.0%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 5.6% 5.9% 3.1% 4.0% 6.9%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 29.8% 31.7% 33.5% 27.5% 21.1%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 290.9% 302.3% 319.8% 329.9% 338.6%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.7x 0.7x 0.4x 0.5x 0.6x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 19.2x 17.8x 6.7x 9.4x 18.4x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 37.5% 34.3% 31.8% 24.5% 24.8%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 98.2% 95.5% 90.9% 85.7% 85.1%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 56.5% 56.6% 54.7% 48.2% 48.0%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

95 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


China Shenhua Energy - H Share (1088 HK)<br />

Sector: Energy Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Energy<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 5.1x<br />

Country: China<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 17.8%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 7.0x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

China Shenhua Energy Company Limited is a leading integrated coal-based energy company. It was<br />

incorporated in Beijing, China and is owned by the state-owned Shenhua Group, the largest coal<br />

producing group in the world. Its main business includes the production and sale of coal, railway and port<br />

transportation of coal-related materials and power generation and sales.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (RMB m) 82,213 69,060 68,844 68,691 88,661<br />

Gross Debt (RMB m) 67,628 60,402 53,024 48,636 43,434<br />

Interest Expense (RMB m) (3,760) (3,219) (2,691) (2,448) (2,147)<br />

EBIT (RMB m) 57,525 68,305 71,960 79,334 87,625<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 28.5% 22.9% 17.8% 14.5% 11.6%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 140.2% 108.9% 99.6% 107.9% 117.5%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 1.0x 0.8x 0.6x 0.5x 0.4x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.2x 2.8x 5.1x 8.2x 8.5x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 15.3x 21.2x 26.7x 32.4x 40.8x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (RMB m) 157,662 208,197 240,488 264,961 293,354<br />

% Change (YoY) 30.0% 32.1% 15.5% 10.2% 10.7%<br />

EBITDA (RMB m) 70,243 82,911 88,701 98,987 110,817<br />

% of Sales 44.6% 39.8% 36.9% 37.4% 37.8%<br />

Net Income (RMB m) 38,834 45,677 48,349 53,003 57,482<br />

% of Sales 24.6% 21.9% 20.1% 20.0% 19.6%<br />

Free Cash Flow (RMB m) 28,035 25,952 29,725 28,083 51,100<br />

% of Sales 17.8% 12.5% 12.4% 10.6% 17.4%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 73,467 82,213 69,060 68,844 68,691<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 28,035 25,952 29,725 28,083 51,100<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 101,502 108,165 98,785 96,928 119,790<br />

Principal Repayments 42,225 20,814 11,378 7,388 8,203<br />

Interest Payments 3,760 3,219 2,691 2,448 2,147<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 45,985 24,033 14,069 9,836 10,350<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 2.2x 4.5x 7.0x 9.9x 11.6x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In RMB m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 69,060 125.7%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 228,906 416.6%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 297,966 542.3%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 297,966 542.3%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 54,942 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

96 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

12.5%<br />

87.5%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(RMB m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 421,116 421,446 421,446<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 60,402 53,024 48,636<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

9.0x<br />

35.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

7.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

12.0x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

11.2%<br />

88.8%<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

10.3%<br />

89.7%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

10.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

41<br />

36<br />

31<br />

26<br />

2.2x<br />

4.5x<br />

7.0x<br />

9.9x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

21<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

China Shenhua Energy - H Share<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (RMB m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 157,662 208,197 240,488 264,961 293,354<br />

Operating Expenses (87,419) (125,286) (151,788) (165,974) (182,537)<br />

EBITDA 70,243 82,911 88,701 98,987 110,817<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (12,718) (14,606) (16,741) (19,653) (23,192)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 57,525 68,305 71,960 79,334 87,625<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (2,248) (2,136) (1,381) (1,142) (652)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 174 1 0 0 0<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 491 290 429 574 620<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 55,942 66,460 71,008 78,766 87,592<br />

Taxes on Profit (11,473) (13,951) (15,752) (18,191) (21,898)<br />

Minority Interests (5,635) (6,832) (6,907) (7,572) (8,212)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 38,834 45,677 48,349 53,003 57,482<br />

Balance Sheet (RMB m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 188,061 219,904 248,729 272,658 291,902<br />

Long-term Investments 971 835 740 655 581<br />

Associates 2,818 3,065 3,188 3,443 3,718<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 3,248 3,596 3,229 2,900 2,604<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 252,670 293,140 326,797 351,797 371,647<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 37,248 38,877 34,932 44,155 43,421<br />

Total Current Assets 119,461 107,937 103,776 112,845 132,082<br />

Total Assets 372,131 401,077 430,573 464,643 503,729<br />

Shareholders' Equity 205,113 225,822 256,270 290,320 327,025<br />

Total Equity 237,427 264,314 297,537 334,715 374,845<br />

Long Term Debt 52,311 44,013 40,225 34,423 28,220<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 57,778 49,214 45,426 39,624 33,421<br />

Total Current Liabilities 76,926 87,549 87,610 90,305 95,463<br />

Total Liabilities 134,704 136,763 133,036 129,928 128,884<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 372,131 401,077 430,573 464,643 503,729<br />

Cash Flow Statement (RMB m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 55,942 66,460 71,008 78,766 87,592<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 12,718 14,606 16,741 19,653 23,192<br />

Tax Paid (9,767) (11,740) (17,876) (18,114) (20,971)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (864) 689 9,720 (8,020) 3,966<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 58,573 70,665 79,789 72,428 93,985<br />

Capital Expenditure (30,538) (44,713) (50,065) (44,344) (42,885)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (141) (1,706) 455 522 587<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (31,132) (54,850) (50,595) (44,796) (43,248)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (10,677) (16,143) (7,378) (4,388) (5,203)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (12,890) (17,659) (22,032) (23,397) (25,564)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (22,548) (31,583) (29,410) (27,785) (30,767)<br />

Change in Cash 4,893 (15,768) (216) (154) 19,971<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 44.6% 39.8% 36.9% 37.4% 37.8%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 36.5% 32.8% 29.9% 29.9% 29.9%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 24.6% 21.9% 20.1% 20.0% 19.6%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 20.7% 21.2% 20.1% 19.4% 18.6%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 17.2% 17.9% 17.6% 18.0% 18.4%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 21.5% 22.4% 20.7% 20.4% 20.3%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 28.5% 22.9% 17.8% 14.5% 11.6%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 182.0% 179.4% 172.5% 163.8% 156.9%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.2x 2.8x 5.1x 8.2x 8.5x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 15.3x 21.2x 26.7x 32.4x 40.8x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 106.9% 78.9% 78.6% 76.1% 92.9%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 155.3% 123.3% 118.5% 125.0% 138.4%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 140.2% 108.9% 99.6% 107.9% 117.5%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

97 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


China Southern Airlines Co., Ltd. - H Share (1055 HK)<br />

Sector: Industrials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Transportation<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.6x<br />

Country: China<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 170.1%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.3x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

China Southern Airlines Company Limited is one of the largest airlines in the People’s Republic of China<br />

(“China”). In 2011, it ranked first among all Chinese airlines in terms of its fleet size, flight routes network<br />

and volume of passenger traffic. It is a member of SKYTEAM airline alliance. The company is principally<br />

engaged in the provision of passenger, cargo and mail air transportation services. It has a network of<br />

flight routes with Guangzhou as the core hub and Beijing as a major hub, covering China and the rest of<br />

Asia and connecting Europe, America, Australia and Africa.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (RMB m) 10,404 9,935 1,868 1,706 1,443<br />

Gross Debt (RMB m) 55,630 63,663 65,741 71,176 68,305<br />

Interest Expense (RMB m) (1,473) (1,235) (1,395) (1,493) (1,732)<br />

EBIT (RMB m) 5,947 3,843 3,785 5,439 6,258<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 183.5% 168.5% 170.1% 170.7% 152.4%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 44.9% 40.2% 22.7% 23.3% 22.7%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 4.4x 5.1x 5.0x 4.3x 3.9x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.4x 0.8x 0.6x 0.8x 1.1x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 4.0x 3.1x 2.7x 3.6x 3.6x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (RMB m) 76,495 90,395 101,511 113,963 123,660<br />

% Change (YoY) 39.6% 18.2% 12.3% 12.3% 8.5%<br />

EBITDA (RMB m) 13,083 11,605 12,966 15,887 17,861<br />

% of Sales 17.1% 12.8% 12.8% 13.9% 14.4%<br />

Net Income (RMB m) 5,792 5,110 2,230 3,202 3,672<br />

% of Sales 7.6% 5.7% 2.2% 2.8% 3.0%<br />

Free Cash Flow (RMB m) (638) (6,422) (3,664) (91) 8,026<br />

% of Sales (0.8%) (7.1%) (3.6%) (0.1%) 6.5%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 4,343 10,404 9,935 1,868 1,706<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (638) (6,422) (3,664) (91) 8,026<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 3,705 3,982 6,271 1,777 9,732<br />

Principal Repayments 26,481 11,843 17,122 15,665 11,271<br />

Interest Payments 1,473 1,235 1,395 1,493 1,732<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 27,954 13,078 18,517 17,158 13,003<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.1x 0.3x 0.3x 0.1x 0.7x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In RMB m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 9,935 13.3%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 27,451 36.7%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 37,386 49.9%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 91,034 121.6%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 128,420 171.5%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 74,861 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

98 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

63.8% 68.5% 70.2%<br />

36.2% 31.5% 29.8%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(RMB m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 36,082 30,253 30,253<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 63,663 65,741 71,176<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

0.9x<br />

4.5x<br />

0.8x<br />

4.0x<br />

0.7x<br />

3.5x<br />

0.6x<br />

3.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

2.5x<br />

0.4x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.3x<br />

1.5x<br />

0.2x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.1x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

0.4x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

0.4x<br />

0.3x<br />

0.3x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.1x<br />

0.1x<br />

0.1x<br />

0.3x<br />

0.3x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

5.24<br />

4.74<br />

4.24<br />

3.74<br />

3.24<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

0.1x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

2.74<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

China Southern Airlines Co., Ltd. - H Share<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (RMB m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 76,495 90,395 101,511 113,963 123,660<br />

Operating Expenses (63,412) (78,790) (88,545) (98,076) (105,799)<br />

EBITDA 13,083 11,605 12,966 15,887 17,861<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (7,136) (7,762) (9,181) (10,448) (11,602)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 5,947 3,843 3,785 5,439 6,258<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (1,172) (888) (1,107) (1,279) (1,554)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 2,272 3,833 548 548 548<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 168 581 354 400 452<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 8,089 6,930 3,581 5,108 5,703<br />

Taxes on Profit (1,677) (840) (607) (977) (1,113)<br />

Minority Interests (620) (980) (743) (929) (918)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 5,792 5,110 2,230 3,202 3,672<br />

Balance Sheet (RMB m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 80,214 87,711 97,706 107,217 111,402<br />

Long-term Investments 246 230 230 230 230<br />

Associates 1,172 1,731 1,965 2,232 2,536<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 95,476 109,927 122,362 133,463 135,711<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 5,455 9,550 9,888 10,366 10,632<br />

Total Current Assets 15,859 19,485 11,756 12,072 12,076<br />

Total Assets 111,335 129,412 134,118 145,535 147,787<br />

Shareholders' Equity 26,817 32,175 32,441 34,751 37,143<br />

Total Equity 30,316 37,777 38,638 41,691 44,817<br />

Long Term Debt 44,652 43,090 46,933 56,262 54,209<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 48,694 47,222 51,217 60,764 58,842<br />

Total Current Liabilities 32,325 44,413 44,262 43,079 44,128<br />

Total Liabilities 81,019 91,635 95,480 103,843 102,970<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 111,335 129,412 134,118 145,535 147,787<br />

Cash Flow Statement (RMB m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 8,089 6,930 3,581 5,108 5,703<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 7,136 7,762 9,181 10,448 11,602<br />

Tax Paid (193) (2,571) (1,108) (1,010) (1,087)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (604) 3,843 1,930 2,484 1,705<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 12,831 13,616 14,336 17,909 19,026<br />

Capital Expenditure (13,469) (20,038) (18,000) (18,000) (11,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 1,932 (2,006) 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (11,484) (21,781) (17,774) (17,835) (10,822)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (4,381) 7,552 (1,122) 2,335 (5,271)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 10,572 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid 0 0 (1,964) (892) (1,281)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 4,714 7,624 (4,630) (236) (8,467)<br />

Change in Cash 6,061 (541) (8,067) (162) (262)<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 17.1% 12.8% 12.8% 13.9% 14.4%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 7.8% 4.3% 3.7% 4.8% 5.1%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 7.6% 5.7% 2.2% 2.8% 3.0%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 31.2% 17.3% 6.9% 9.5% 10.2%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 5.9% 3.3% 3.0% 3.9% 4.3%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 6.4% 3.9% 3.2% 4.0% 4.4%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 183.5% 168.5% 170.1% 170.7% 152.4%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 149.2% 142.4% 165.5% 166.8% 149.3%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 554.5% 408.1% 407.8% 416.2% 408.0%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.4x 0.8x 0.6x 0.8x 1.1x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 4.0x 3.1x 2.7x 3.6x 3.6x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 32.2% 22.2% 4.1% 3.8% 3.1%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 49.1% 43.9% 26.6% 28.0% 27.4%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 44.9% 40.2% 22.7% 23.3% 22.7%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

99 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


China Steel Corp. (2002 TT)<br />

Sector: Materials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Materials<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.1x<br />

Country: Taiwan<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 27.1%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.3x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Incorporated in 1971, China Steel Corporation (CSC) is Taiwan’s largest steel producer. The company<br />

has an annual capacity of over 10 million metric tonnes of crude steel and commands a market share of<br />

over 50% in Taiwan. CSC produces a range of products which include hot and cold rolled coils, coated<br />

coils, plates, rods and bars. It primarily sells upstream products to Taiwan’s downstream steel industry<br />

and earns around one third of its revenues from exports to regions like China and Korea.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (NT$ m) 2,171 684 5,900 13,299 21,882<br />

Gross Debt (NT$ m) 58,601 77,711 78,727 77,211 76,027<br />

Interest Expense (NT$ m) (660) (769) (1,192) (1,056) (905)<br />

EBIT (NT$ m) 36,001 14,537 5,032 8,825 12,351<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 21.3% 26.0% 27.1% 25.8% 24.8%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 35.3% 40.2% 39.6% 50.2% 49.6%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 1.1x 2.3x 3.7x 3.1x 2.7x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 11.9x 1.9x 1.1x 1.5x 1.6x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 54.6x 18.9x 4.2x 8.4x 13.7x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (NT$ m) 239,187 240,376 215,192 222,535 231,922<br />

% Change (YoY) 44.6% 0.5% (10.5%) 3.4% 4.2%<br />

EBITDA (NT$ m) 49,934 29,195 20,973 25,009 28,625<br />

% of Sales 20.9% 12.1% 9.7% 11.2% 12.3%<br />

Net Income (NT$ m) 37,587 19,494 6,195 13,744 17,327<br />

% of Sales 15.7% 8.1% 2.9% 6.2% 7.5%<br />

Free Cash Flow (NT$ m) (16,296) (22,448) 19,743 5,912 11,643<br />

% of Sales (6.8%) (9.3%) 9.2% 2.7% 5.0%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 5,188 2,171 684 5,900 13,299<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (16,296) (22,448) 19,743 5,912 11,643<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) (11,108) (20,277) 20,426 11,812 24,941<br />

Principal Repayments 3,025 13,700 14,977 13,304 15,104<br />

Interest Payments 660 769 1,192 1,056 905<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 3,685 14,469 16,169 14,360 16,009<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) (3.0x) (1.4x) 1.3x 0.8x 1.6x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In NT$ m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 684 0.8%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 53,206 61.5%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 53,889 62.3%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 53,889 62.3%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 86,553 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

15.5% 16.1% 15.5%<br />

84.5% 83.8% 84.4%<br />

(NT$ m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 424,833 409,632 420,881<br />

Preferred Stock 383 383 383<br />

Debt 77,711 78,727 77,211<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

14.0x<br />

60.0x<br />

12.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.0x<br />

1.3x<br />

0.8x<br />

(0.5x)<br />

(1.0x)<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

(1.5x)<br />

(2.0x)<br />

(2.5x)<br />

(3.0x)<br />

(1.4x)<br />

(3.5x) (3.0x)<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EJ209862 Corp Sinkable Senior Unsecured NT$ 15,000.0 15,000.0 100.00 03-Aug-2012 03-Aug-2022 1.50% 1<br />

EH643621 Corp Sinkable Senior Unsecured NT$ 13,000.0 13,000.0 100.00 29-Dec-2009 29-Dec-2013 2.08% 1<br />

EI801481 Corp Sinkable Senior Unsecured NT$ 10,400.0 10,400.0 100.00 19-Oct-2011 19-Oct-2018 1.57% 1<br />

100 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (NT$)<br />

0.1%<br />

0.1%<br />

0.1%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Preferred Stock Debt<br />

35<br />

30<br />

25<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

20<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

China Steel Corp.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (NT$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 239,187 240,376 215,192 222,535 231,922<br />

Operating Expenses (189,253) (211,181) (194,219) (197,526) (203,297)<br />

EBITDA 49,934 29,195 20,973 25,009 28,625<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (13,933) (14,658) (15,941) (16,184) (16,274)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 36,001 14,537 5,032 8,825 12,351<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (568) (648) (1,031) (796) (509)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 8,613 6,334 3,367 7,651 8,067<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 48 62 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 44,094 20,285 7,368 15,680 19,909<br />

Taxes on Profit (6,507) (791) (1,174) (1,936) (2,582)<br />

Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 37,587 19,494 6,195 13,744 17,327<br />

Balance Sheet (NT$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 145,071 141,096 131,540 121,327 110,406<br />

Long-term Investments 133,951 144,050 145,695 152,136 159,648<br />

Associates 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 226 184 145 115 91<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 318,503 334,695 336,734 341,119 346,873<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 61,714 86,556 79,999 80,749 85,220<br />

Total Current Assets 63,885 87,240 85,899 94,048 107,102<br />

Total Assets 382,387 421,935 422,633 435,167 453,975<br />

Shareholders' Equity 274,241 298,216 290,333 299,450 306,706<br />

Total Equity 274,624 298,599 290,716 299,833 307,089<br />

Long Term Debt 57,259 71,243 68,979 64,675 58,572<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 59,793 73,881 71,618 67,314 61,210<br />

Total Current Liabilities 47,970 49,454 60,299 68,020 85,677<br />

Total Liabilities 107,764 123,336 131,916 135,334 146,887<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 382,387 421,935 422,633 435,167 453,975<br />

Cash Flow Statement (NT$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 44,094 20,285 7,368 15,680 19,909<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 13,933 14,658 15,941 16,184 16,274<br />

Tax Paid (6,507) (791) (1,174) (1,936) (2,582)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (4,116) (28,007) 17,855 4,843 8,368<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 49,474 10,152 39,477 33,441 40,565<br />

Capital Expenditure (65,770) (32,600) (19,735) (27,529) (28,923)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 16,501 8,020 2,083 7,659 8,218<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (47,160) (28,194) (17,651) (19,870) (20,705)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (5,666) 18,626 (3,015) (806) 1,326<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 (35) (29) (23)<br />

Dividends Paid (13,286) (26,991) (14,015) (4,490) (9,898)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (23,252) (8,469) (17,127) (5,462) (8,768)<br />

Change in Cash (20,938) (26,510) 4,699 8,109 11,093<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 20.9% 12.1% 9.7% 11.2% 12.3%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 15.1% 6.0% 2.3% 4.0% 5.3%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 15.7% 8.1% 2.9% 6.2% 7.5%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 14.3% 6.8% 2.1% 4.7% 5.7%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 10.0% 3.6% 1.2% 2.1% 2.9%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 15.6% 6.4% 1.9% 3.6% 5.1%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 21.3% 26.0% 27.1% 25.8% 24.8%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 20.5% 25.8% 25.1% 21.3% 17.6%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 137.8% 140.5% 143.5% 145.4% 146.7%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 11.9x 1.9x 1.1x 1.5x 1.6x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 54.6x 18.9x 4.2x 8.4x 13.7x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 4.5% 1.4% 9.8% 19.6% 25.5%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 133.2% 176.4% 142.5% 138.3% 125.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 35.3% 40.2% 39.6% 50.2% 49.6%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

101 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


China Telecom Corp., Ltd. (728 HK)<br />

Sector: Telecommunication Services Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Telecommunication Services Debt Service Cover (x) 2.3x<br />

Country: Hong Kong<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 11.7%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.9x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

China Telecom Corporation Limited is a full services integrated information service operator and the<br />

world’s largest wireline telecommunications and broadband services provider, providing basic<br />

telecommunications services such as wireline telecommunications services and mobile<br />

telecommunications services, and value-added telecommunications services such as Internet access<br />

services and information services in the People’s Republic of China.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (RMB m) 27,792 29,176 18,540 30,930 12,519<br />

Gross Debt (RMB m) 73,576 52,103 31,150 140,962 96,913<br />

Interest Expense (RMB m) (3,824) (3,084) (1,998) (6,884) (8,326)<br />

EBIT (RMB m) 23,161 21,693 23,228 32,699 31,739<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 29.9% 20.3% 11.7% 50.4% 33.3%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 41.0% 43.0% 39.0% 39.0% 31.8%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 1.2x 0.9x 0.5x 0.9x 1.1x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.6x 1.2x 2.3x 4.8x 1.6x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 6.1x 7.0x 11.6x 4.7x 3.8x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (RMB m) 219,864 245,041 281,735 306,271 316,301<br />

% Change (YoY) 5.0% 11.5% 15.0% 8.7% 3.3%<br />

EBITDA (RMB m) 75,376 72,917 76,490 99,153 104,741<br />

% of Sales 34.3% 29.8% 27.1% 32.4% 33.1%<br />

Net Income (RMB m) 15,347 16,502 14,623 19,539 17,727<br />

% of Sales 7.0% 6.7% 5.2% 6.4% 5.6%<br />

Free Cash Flow (RMB m) 37,506 27,199 15,442 32,735 37,169<br />

% of Sales 17.1% 11.1% 5.5% 10.7% 11.8%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 35,246 27,792 29,176 18,540 30,930<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 37,506 27,199 15,442 32,735 37,169<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 72,752 54,991 44,618 51,275 68,099<br />

Principal Repayments 86,019 45,329 20,953 10,188 44,049<br />

Interest Payments 3,824 3,084 1,998 6,884 8,326<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 89,843 48,413 22,951 17,072 52,375<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.8x 1.1x 1.9x 3.0x 1.3x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In RMB m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 29,176 19.4%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 172,907 114.7%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 202,083 134.0%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 118,970 78.9%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 321,053 212.9%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 150,772 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(RMB m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 289,911 280,421 281,373<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 52,103 31,150 140,962<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

3.5x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EI089866 Corp At Maturity Unsecured RMB 10,000.0 10,000.0 100.00 28-Dec-2009 28-Dec-2014 4.61% 1<br />

EH598589 Corp At Maturity Unsecured RMB 10,000.0 10,000.0 100.00 24-Oct-2008 24-Oct-2013 4.15% 1<br />

102 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

15.2%<br />

84.8%<br />

10.0%<br />

90.0%<br />

33.4%<br />

66.6%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

6.0x<br />

14.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

12.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

3.0x<br />

2.5x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.8x<br />

1.1x<br />

1.9x<br />

3.0x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

5.80<br />

5.30<br />

4.80<br />

4.30<br />

3.80<br />

3.30<br />

2.80<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

China Telecom Corp., Ltd.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (RMB m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 219,864 245,041 281,735 306,271 316,301<br />

Operating Expenses (144,488) (172,124) (205,244) (207,118) (211,560)<br />

EBITDA 75,376 72,917 76,490 99,153 104,741<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (52,215) (51,224) (53,262) (66,454) (73,002)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 23,161 21,693 23,228 32,699 31,739<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (3,508) (2,305) (1,778) (6,655) (8,126)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 236 91 140 140 140<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 131 99 25 25 26<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 20,311 22,014 21,615 26,209 23,778<br />

Taxes on Profit (4,846) (5,416) (6,904) (6,552) (5,945)<br />

Minority Interests (118) (96) (88) (118) (107)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 15,347 16,502 14,623 19,539 17,727<br />

Balance Sheet (RMB m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 272,478 268,877 268,725 377,994 361,084<br />

Long-term Investments 854 648 648 648 648<br />

Associates 1,123 985 1,010 1,035 1,061<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 66,966 63,913 61,767 61,211 61,003<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 365,284 359,539 358,191 468,558 451,914<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 27,453 30,400 33,204 34,904 35,687<br />

Total Current Assets 55,245 59,576 51,744 65,834 48,206<br />

Total Assets 420,529 419,115 409,935 534,392 500,120<br />

Shareholders' Equity 245,628 256,090 265,130 278,819 290,294<br />

Total Equity 246,124 256,878 265,953 279,690 291,207<br />

Long Term Debt 42,549 31,150 20,962 96,913 72,824<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 47,482 34,979 24,791 100,742 76,653<br />

Total Current Liabilities 126,923 127,258 119,191 153,960 132,260<br />

Total Liabilities 174,405 162,237 143,982 254,702 208,913<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 420,529 419,115 409,935 534,392 500,120<br />

Cash Flow Statement (RMB m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 20,311 22,014 21,615 26,209 23,778<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 52,215 51,224 53,262 66,454 73,002<br />

Tax Paid (3,448) (4,064) (7,016) (6,575) (5,976)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 5,485 5,336 (888) (2,397) (4,129)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 79,103 75,694 69,442 91,735 96,169<br />

Capital Expenditure (41,597) (48,495) (54,000) (59,000) (59,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (4,026) 4,918 2,296 (117,582) 2,912<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (45,442) (43,241) (51,484) (176,353) (55,889)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (32,501) (21,453) (20,953) 109,812 (44,049)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (5,608) (6,174) (5,590) (5,849) (6,252)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (42,595) (30,804) (28,594) 97,008 (58,691)<br />

Change in Cash (8,934) 1,649 (10,636) 12,389 (18,411)<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 34.3% 29.8% 27.1% 32.4% 33.1%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 10.5% 8.9% 8.2% 10.7% 10.0%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 7.0% 6.7% 5.2% 6.4% 5.6%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 6.6% 6.6% 5.6% 7.2% 6.2%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 5.5% 5.3% 5.7% 7.0% 6.2%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 5.9% 5.7% 5.6% 7.3% 6.2%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 29.9% 20.3% 11.7% 50.4% 33.3%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 19.4% 9.6% 5.4% 40.0% 29.6%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 181.2% 167.4% 159.1% 173.6% 181.8%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.6x 1.2x 2.3x 4.8x 1.6x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 6.1x 7.0x 11.6x 4.7x 3.8x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 20.3% 21.5% 14.0% 18.9% 8.1%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 43.5% 46.8% 43.4% 42.8% 36.4%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 41.0% 43.0% 39.0% 39.0% 31.8%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

103 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


China Unicom (HongKong) Ltd. (762 HK)<br />

Sector: Telecommunication Services Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Telecommunication Services Debt Service Cover (x) 1.8x<br />

Country: Hong Kong<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 38.3%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.9x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

China Unicom (Hong Kong) Limited was incorporated in Hong Kong in 2000. At present, the company is<br />

engaged in GSM and WCDMA cellular business in 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions<br />

in China, the provision of fixed-line voice, broadband and other Internet-related services, information and<br />

communications technology services, business and data communications services, and other related<br />

telecommunication value-added businesses.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (RMB m) 22,597 15,106 25,898 25,472 44,601<br />

Gross Debt (RMB m) 94,805 104,874 80,583 59,735 59,685<br />

Interest Expense (RMB m) (2,025) (3,205) (4,922) (3,649) (3,052)<br />

EBIT (RMB m) 4,964 4,962 12,462 18,614 18,656<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 46.1% 50.9% 38.3% 27.3% 26.4%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 19.5% 16.0% 17.2% 15.5% 21.1%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 1.4x 1.6x 1.3x 0.8x 0.7x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.3x 0.4x 1.8x 17.4x 28.4x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 2.5x 1.5x 2.5x 5.1x 6.1x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (RMB m) 171,370 209,167 247,584 287,342 310,582<br />

% Change (YoY) 11.3% 22.1% 18.4% 16.1% 8.1%<br />

EBITDA (RMB m) 59,618 62,983 72,641 84,180 88,682<br />

% of Sales 34.8% 30.1% 29.3% 29.3% 28.6%<br />

Net Income (RMB m) 3,701 4,227 6,911 12,260 12,716<br />

% of Sales 2.2% 2.0% 2.8% 4.3% 4.1%<br />

Free Cash Flow (RMB m) (7,305) (8,395) 40,741 25,885 25,772<br />

% of Sales (4.3%) (4.0%) 16.5% 9.0% 8.3%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 7,820 22,597 15,106 25,898 25,472<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (7,305) (8,395) 40,741 25,885 25,772<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 515 14,202 55,847 51,783 51,244<br />

Principal Repayments 141,451 106,305 24,292 848 50<br />

Interest Payments 2,025 3,205 4,922 3,649 3,052<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 143,476 109,510 29,213 4,497 3,102<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.0x 0.1x 1.9x 11.5x 16.5x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In RMB m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 15,106 35.2%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 161,502 376.6%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 176,608 411.8%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 176,608 411.8%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 42,883 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

25.2% 25.5%<br />

74.8% 74.5%<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(RMB m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 312,061 235,288 243,885<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 104,874 80,583 59,735<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

20.0x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

14.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x 0.1x<br />

1.9x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EI402751 Corp At Maturity Unsecured RMB 12,000.0 12,000.0 100.00 20-Sep-2010 20-Sep-2013 3.31% 1<br />

EI419134 Corp Convertible/Puttable Company Guarantee US$ 1,838.8 1,838.8 100.00 18-Oct-2010 18-Oct-2015 0.75% 2<br />

EI201438 Corp At Maturity Unsecured RMB 3,000.0 3,000.0 100.00 01-Apr-2010 01-Apr-2013 3.73% 1<br />

104 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

19.7%<br />

80.3%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

15.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

12.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

11.5x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

20.08<br />

18.08<br />

16.08<br />

14.08<br />

12.08<br />

10.08<br />

8.08<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

China Unicom (HongKong) Ltd.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (RMB m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 171,370 209,167 247,584 287,342 310,582<br />

Operating Expenses (111,752) (146,184) (174,943) (203,162) (221,900)<br />

EBITDA 59,618 62,983 72,641 84,180 88,682<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (54,654) (58,021) (60,179) (65,566) (70,025)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 4,964 4,962 12,462 18,614 18,656<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (1,767) (2,104) (3,428) (2,448) (1,882)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 1,382 2,311 848 848 848<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 4,584 5,598 9,881 17,013 17,622<br />

Taxes on Profit (883) (1,371) (2,970) (4,753) (4,905)<br />

Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 3,701 4,227 6,911 12,260 12,716<br />

Balance Sheet (RMB m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 306,409 327,177 351,459 367,666 375,359<br />

Long-term Investments 6,214 6,951 6,951 6,951 6,951<br />

Associates 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 10,378 10,428 10,428 10,428 10,428<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 398,942 417,430 457,187 471,248 475,697<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 19,730 23,697 23,866 25,248 25,305<br />

Total Current Assets 42,327 38,803 49,764 50,720 69,907<br />

Total Assets 441,269 456,233 506,951 521,968 545,604<br />

Shareholders' Equity 205,661 205,898 210,453 219,119 226,319<br />

Total Equity 205,661 205,898 210,453 219,119 226,319<br />

Long Term Debt 35,020 34,502 33,654 13,604 13,554<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 37,375 36,408 35,560 15,510 15,460<br />

Total Current Liabilities 198,233 213,927 260,938 287,339 303,825<br />

Total Liabilities 235,608 250,335 296,498 302,849 319,285<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 441,269 456,233 506,951 521,968 545,604<br />

Cash Flow Statement (RMB m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 4,584 5,598 9,881 17,013 17,622<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 54,654 58,021 60,179 65,566 70,025<br />

Tax Paid (1,044) (896) (3,152) (4,353) (4,767)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 6,326 4,341 67,591 22,393 12,919<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 68,252 69,466 140,741 105,885 100,772<br />

Capital Expenditure (75,557) (77,861) (100,000) (80,000) (75,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (2,201) (5,894) 1,064 1,173 1,275<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (71,349) (82,740) (98,380) (78,220) (73,024)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 23,558 10,804 (24,292) (20,848) (50)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 35 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (3,670) (2,070) (2,356) (3,594) (5,517)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 17,799 5,783 (31,569) (28,091) (8,619)<br />

Change in Cash 14,702 (7,491) 10,792 (426) 19,129<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 34.8% 30.1% 29.3% 29.3% 28.6%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 2.9% 2.4% 5.0% 6.5% 6.0%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 2.2% 2.0% 2.8% 4.3% 4.1%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 1.8% 2.1% 3.3% 5.7% 5.7%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 1.2% 1.2% 2.6% 3.7% 3.6%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 1.5% 1.3% 3.2% 5.3% 5.6%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 46.1% 50.9% 38.3% 27.3% 26.4%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 35.1% 43.6% 26.0% 15.6% 6.7%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 208.3% 218.1% 231.3% 239.5% 239.7%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.3x 0.4x 1.8x 17.4x 28.4x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 2.5x 1.5x 2.5x 5.1x 6.1x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 11.4% 7.1% 9.9% 8.9% 14.7%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 21.4% 18.1% 19.1% 17.7% 23.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 19.5% 16.0% 17.2% 15.5% 21.1%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

105 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd. (1929 HK)<br />

Sector: Consumer Discretionary Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Retailing<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.2x<br />

Country: Hong Kong<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 45.0%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 2.3x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Limited (Chow Tai Fook) is a leading jeweller in Mainland China, Hong<br />

Kong and Macau with a heritage of over 80 years. Its principal products are mass luxury and high-end<br />

luxury jewellery products including gem-set jewellery, gold products, platinum/karat gold products and<br />

watches. It has a sophisticated vertically integrated business model that gives it effective and tight<br />

control over its processes, from raw material procurement to design, production, marketing and sales<br />

through its extensive retail network.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Mar) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (HK$ m) 5,740 10,152 12,988 13,198 13,315<br />

Gross Debt (HK$ m) 6,813 14,807 15,507 12,783 13,745<br />

Interest Expense (HK$ m) (102) (363) (500) (467) (438)<br />

EBIT (HK$ m) 4,705 8,546 8,501 10,134 12,829<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 58.4% 50.1% 45.0% 31.9% 29.1%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 60.4% 109.5% 138.0% 148.0% 153.6%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.9x 1.2x 1.7x 1.3x 1.0x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.3x 0.5x 1.2x 0.9x 1.7x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 46.0x 23.5x 17.0x 21.7x 29.3x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (HK$ m) 35,043 56,571 63,392 74,305 89,088<br />

% Change (YoY) 52.8% 61.4% 12.1% 17.2% 19.9%<br />

EBITDA (HK$ m) 4,959 8,947 9,088 10,878 13,712<br />

% of Sales 14.2% 15.8% 14.3% 14.6% 15.4%<br />

Net Income (HK$ m) 3,538 6,341 6,295 7,627 9,748<br />

% of Sales 10.1% 11.2% 9.9% 10.3% 10.9%<br />

Free Cash Flow (HK$ m) (3,436) (7,521) 4,043 5,514 2,223<br />

% of Sales (9.8%) (13.3%) 6.4% 7.4% 2.5%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 2,243 5,740 10,152 12,988 13,198<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (3,436) (7,521) 4,043 5,514 2,223<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) (1,193) (1,781) 14,194 18,502 15,421<br />

Principal Repayments 3,054 14,380 5,800 9,224 6,037<br />

Interest Payments 102 363 500 467 438<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 3,156 14,743 6,300 9,691 6,475<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) (0.4x) (0.1x) 2.3x 1.9x 2.4x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In HK$ m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 10,152 27.7%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 28,436 77.5%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 38,588 105.2%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 38,588 105.2%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 36,676 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

106 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

10.7% 10.7%<br />

89.3% 89.3%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(HK$ m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 123,000 130,000 130,000<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 14,807 15,507 12,783<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

1.4x<br />

50.0x<br />

1.2x<br />

1.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

0.8x<br />

30.0x<br />

0.6x<br />

0.4x<br />

20.0x<br />

0.2x<br />

10.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

2.5x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

2.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.0x<br />

(0.5x)<br />

(1.0x)<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

9.0%<br />

91.0%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

17.23<br />

15.23<br />

13.23<br />

11.23<br />

9.23<br />

2.3x<br />

1.9x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

(0.4x) (0.1x)<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

7.23<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd.<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (HK$ m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 35,043 56,571 63,392 74,305 89,088<br />

Operating Expenses (30,174) (47,756) (54,446) (63,592) (75,570)<br />

EBITDA 4,959 8,947 9,088 10,878 13,712<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (255) (402) (586) (744) (883)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 4,705 8,546 8,501 10,134 12,829<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (32) (274) (384) (326) (291)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) (43) (98) (17) (7) (9)<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits (5) 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 4,620 8,166 8,100 9,801 12,529<br />

Taxes on Profit (947) (1,595) (1,576) (1,897) (2,427)<br />

Minority Interests (135) (230) (228) (277) (354)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 3,538 6,341 6,295 7,627 9,748<br />

Balance Sheet (HK$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 1,144 1,602 1,957 2,149 2,197<br />

Long-term Investments 16 13 14 14 14<br />

Associates 45 10 10 10 10<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 87 96 106 113 117<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 1,546 2,156 2,544 2,762 2,829<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 21,763 35,107 38,206 41,316 49,974<br />

Total Current Assets 27,503 45,258 51,194 54,514 63,289<br />

Total Assets 29,049 47,414 53,739 57,276 66,117<br />

Shareholders' Equity 11,307 28,978 33,674 38,976 45,854<br />

Total Equity 11,673 29,573 34,472 40,017 47,199<br />

Long Term Debt 0 3,426 5,426 3,547 4,747<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 163 3,623 5,640 3,777 4,993<br />

Total Current Liabilities 17,213 14,218 13,626 13,482 13,925<br />

Total Liabilities 17,376 17,841 19,266 17,259 18,918<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 29,049 47,414 53,739 57,276 66,117<br />

Cash Flow Statement (HK$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 4,620 8,166 8,100 9,801 12,529<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 255 402 586 744 883<br />

Tax Paid (730) (1,353) (1,468) (1,758) (2,210)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (7,513) (14,511) (2,604) (2,652) (8,322)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations (2,612) (6,654) 5,043 6,514 3,223<br />

Capital Expenditure (824) (867) (1,000) (1,000) (1,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 32 (124) 37 49 60<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (76) 477 (882) (854) (810)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 3,662 7,494 700 (2,724) 963<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 2 15,750 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (9) (4,543) (1,644) (2,379) (2,939)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 6,107 10,497 (1,330) (5,456) (2,302)<br />

Change in Cash 3,419 4,320 2,830 204 111<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 14.2% 15.8% 14.3% 14.6% 15.4%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 13.4% 15.1% 13.4% 13.6% 14.4%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 10.1% 11.2% 9.9% 10.3% 10.9%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 36.4% 31.5% 20.1% 21.0% 23.0%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 20.7% 22.6% 17.0% 18.5% 21.0%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 35.0% 29.1% 19.1% 21.2% 23.6%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 58.4% 50.1% 45.0% 31.9% 29.1%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 10.3% 16.3% 7.8% - 1.3%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 236.6% 189.8% 161.5% 152.8% 145.5%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.3x 0.5x 1.2x 0.9x 1.7x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 46.0x 23.5x 17.0x 21.7x 29.3x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 32.6% 70.2% 94.1% 96.6% 94.3%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 159.8% 318.3% 375.7% 404.4% 454.5%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 60.4% 109.5% 138.0% 148.0% 153.6%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

107 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Chunghwa Telecom Co Ltd. (2412 TT)<br />

Sector: Telecommunication Services Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Telecommunication Services Debt Service Cover (x) 96.7x<br />

Country: Taiwan<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 0.3%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 159.6x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Chunghwa Telecom was established as a Company in 1996 as a result of the separation of the business<br />

and regulatory functions of the Directorate General of Telecommunications, Republic of China. The<br />

Company was privatized in 2005 and is now the largest telecommunications service provider by<br />

revenues in Taiwan. As an integrated telecommunications service provider, the Company’s principal<br />

activities include domestic fixed communications services, mobile communications services, internet<br />

services, and international fixed communications services.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (NT$ m) 95,107 71,136 73,820 79,865 85,299<br />

Gross Debt (NT$ m) 3,802 1,835 1,133 1,125 1,125<br />

Interest Expense (NT$ m) (107) (31) (22) (17) (17)<br />

EBIT (NT$ m) 57,367 55,085 48,768 49,573 50,917<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 160.7% 170.9% 171.8% 182.1% 184.6%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 89.8x 37.2x 96.7x 3,136.5x 4,886.6x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 536.1x 1,776.9x 2,190.8x 2,927.3x 3,017.3x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (NT$ m) 202,430 217,493 218,840 222,327 225,648<br />

% Change (YoY) 2.1% 7.4% 0.6% 1.6% 1.5%<br />

EBITDA (NT$ m) 91,431 87,391 82,010 82,650 82,461<br />

% of Sales 45.2% 40.2% 37.5% 37.2% 36.5%<br />

Net Income (NT$ m) 47,609 47,068 40,643 42,299 43,435<br />

% of Sales 23.5% 21.6% 18.6% 19.0% 19.2%<br />

Free Cash Flow (NT$ m) 59,838 47,769 44,455 41,615 42,476<br />

% of Sales 29.6% 22.0% 20.3% 18.7% 18.8%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 91,937 95,107 71,136 73,820 79,865<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 59,838 47,769 44,455 41,615 42,476<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 151,775 142,876 115,591 115,435 122,340<br />

Principal Repayments 767 1,967 702 8 0<br />

Interest Payments 107 31 22 17 17<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 874 1,998 724 25 17<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 173.7x 71.5x 159.6x 4,629.4x 7,249.8x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In NT$ m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 71,136 3,895.3%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 211,588 11,586.3%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 282,724 15,481.6%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 282,724 15,481.6%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 1,826 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

108 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

0.2%<br />

99.8%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

0.2% 0.2%<br />

99.8% 99.8%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(NT$ m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 775,745 733,079 721,443<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 1,835 1,133 1,125<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

3500.0x<br />

3500.0x<br />

3000.0x<br />

3000.0x<br />

2500.0x<br />

2500.0x<br />

2000.0x<br />

2000.0x<br />

1500.0x<br />

1500.0x<br />

1000.0x<br />

1000.0x<br />

500.0x<br />

500.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

5000.0x<br />

4500.0x<br />

4000.0x<br />

3500.0x<br />

3000.0x<br />

2500.0x<br />

2000.0x<br />

1500.0x<br />

1000.0x<br />

4629.4x<br />

500.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

173.7x 71.5x 159.6x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (NT$)<br />

124<br />

114<br />

104<br />

94<br />

84<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

74<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Chunghwa Telecom Co Ltd.<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (NT$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 202,430 217,493 218,840 222,327 225,648<br />

Operating Expenses (110,999) (130,102) (136,830) (139,677) (143,188)<br />

EBITDA 91,431 87,391 82,010 82,650 82,461<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (34,064) (32,306) (33,242) (33,076) (31,544)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 57,367 55,085 48,768 49,573 50,917<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 368 651 812 861 918<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 318 430 298 91 91<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 151 364 533 535 538<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 57,687 56,699 49,019 51,065 52,469<br />

Taxes on Profit (9,129) (8,604) (7,333) (7,681) (7,920)<br />

Minority Interests (949) (1,027) (1,042) (1,085) (1,114)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 47,609 47,068 40,643 42,299 43,435<br />

Balance Sheet (NT$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 293,671 288,923 286,974 286,345 287,674<br />

Long-term Investments 12,142 17,313 15,875 15,909 15,941<br />

Associates 1,725 2,563 2,576 2,589 2,602<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 6,856 6,330 5,020 4,234 3,605<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 333,520 336,381 334,454 333,991 335,053<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 25,684 35,403 33,308 35,391 37,027<br />

Total Current Assets 120,791 106,539 107,127 115,256 122,326<br />

Total Assets 454,311 442,920 441,582 449,247 457,379<br />

Shareholders' Equity 364,579 368,731 367,012 372,732 378,099<br />

Total Equity 368,603 373,043 372,367 379,171 385,651<br />

Long Term Debt 3,148 1,058 1,050 1,050 0<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 13,367 10,597 10,199 10,234 9,217<br />

Total Current Liabilities 72,341 59,280 59,016 59,842 62,510<br />

Total Liabilities 85,708 69,877 69,215 70,076 71,728<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 454,311 442,920 441,582 449,247 457,379<br />

Cash Flow Statement (NT$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 57,687 56,699 49,019 51,065 52,469<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 34,064 32,306 33,242 33,076 31,544<br />

Tax Paid (8,841) (9,574) (8,154) (7,799) (7,890)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 10,280 4,640 9,859 6,188 7,559<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 84,733 75,201 77,555 74,615 75,476<br />

Capital Expenditure (24,895) (27,432) (33,100) (33,000) (33,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 10,183 (4,694) 1,186 910 920<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (17,327) (32,946) (31,807) (31,983) (31,972)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 2,471 (1,737) (702) (8) 0<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (39,369) (42,855) (42,362) (36,579) (38,069)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (46,963) (65,738) (43,064) (36,587) (38,069)<br />

Change in Cash 20,443 (23,483) 2,684 6,045 5,434<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 45.2% 40.2% 37.5% 37.2% 36.5%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 28.3% 25.3% 22.3% 22.3% 22.6%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 23.5% 21.6% 18.6% 19.0% 19.2%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 12.9% 12.8% 11.0% 11.4% 11.6%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 12.8% 12.4% 11.2% 11.3% 11.4%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 17.2% 16.5% 14.2% 14.5% 14.8%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 122.1% 122.4% 120.2% 120.4% 120.7%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 89.8x 37.2x 96.7x 3,136.5x 4,886.6x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 536.1x 1,776.9x 2,190.8x 2,927.3x 3,017.3x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 125.6% 113.7% 118.7% 127.2% 130.5%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 167.0% 179.7% 181.5% 192.6% 195.7%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 160.7% 170.9% 171.8% 182.1% 184.6%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

109 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Cipla Ltd. (CIPLA IN)<br />

Sector: Health Care Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology Debt Service Cover (x) 4.3x<br />

Country: India<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 1.7%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 5.2x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Cipla Limited is an India based pharmaceutical company that manufactures and sells a wide range of<br />

Formulations (branded and generic) and Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients in the developed and<br />

developing markets of the world.<br />

The Company has a wide onshore and offshore presence with its products available in more than 180<br />

countries. The Company also makes bulk drugs, agrochemicals and animal products.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Mar) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Rs m) 3,196 10,310 19,443 28,635 42,302<br />

Gross Debt (Rs m) 5,410 135 1,551 1,973 2,097<br />

Interest Expense (Rs m) (173) (238) (116) (229) (254)<br />

EBIT (Rs m) 10,959 13,466 17,294 19,807 22,739<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 8.1% 0.2% 1.7% 1.9% 1.8%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 149.4% 222.8% 249.8% 303.6% 344.2%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.2x 0.2x 0.0x 0.1x 0.1x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.7x 1.7x 4.3x 3.7x 3.9x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 63.3x 56.5x 148.7x 86.5x 89.4x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (Rs m) 63,238 70,207 81,423 92,315 103,292<br />

% Change (YoY) 12.4% 11.0% 16.0% 13.4% 11.9%<br />

EBITDA (Rs m) 13,692 16,589 20,674 23,425 26,598<br />

% of Sales 21.7% 23.6% 25.4% 25.4% 25.7%<br />

Net Income (Rs m) 9,896 11,442 15,022 16,931 19,115<br />

% of Sales 15.6% 16.3% 18.4% 18.3% 18.5%<br />

Free Cash Flow (Rs m) 3,146 11,517 9,073 10,301 15,226<br />

% of Sales 5.0% 16.4% 11.1% 11.2% 14.7%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 3,075 3,196 10,310 19,443 28,635<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 3,146 11,517 9,073 10,301 15,226<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 6,221 14,713 19,383 29,744 43,861<br />

Principal Repayments 6,711 7,427 3,583 4,578 4,876<br />

Interest Payments 173 238 116 229 254<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 6,884 7,665 3,700 4,807 5,131<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.9x 1.9x 5.2x 6.2x 8.5x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In Rs m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 10,310 42.7%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 67,417 279.4%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 77,727 322.2%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 77,727 322.2%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 24,128 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

110 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

0.1%<br />

99.9%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(Rs m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 244,971 337,588 337,588<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 135 1,551 1,973<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

4.5x<br />

160.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

140.0x<br />

3.5x<br />

120.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.5x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

100.0x<br />

80.0x<br />

60.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

20.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

7.0x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

0.5%<br />

99.5%<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Share Price (Rs)<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

0.6%<br />

99.4%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

6.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

496<br />

446<br />

396<br />

346<br />

296<br />

0.9x<br />

1.9x<br />

5.2x<br />

6.2x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

246<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Cipla Ltd.<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (Rs m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 63,238 70,207 81,423 92,315 103,292<br />

Operating Expenses (49,546) (53,619) (60,750) (68,890) (76,694)<br />

EBITDA 13,692 16,589 20,674 23,425 26,598<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (2,733) (3,122) (3,380) (3,618) (3,858)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 10,959 13,466 17,294 19,807 22,739<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (180) (299) (1) (43) 26<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 846 1,311 2,280 2,414 2,512<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 11,625 14,478 19,573 22,178 25,277<br />

Taxes on Profit (1,952) (3,065) (4,702) (5,407) (6,332)<br />

Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items 223 29 150 160 170<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 9,896 11,442 15,022 16,931 19,115<br />

Balance Sheet (Rs m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 30,942 32,158 32,765 33,065 33,352<br />

Long-term Investments 3,672 3,283 3,760 3,867 3,921<br />

Associates 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 41,535 42,817 43,813 44,368 45,108<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 41,236 40,376 46,560 51,717 55,825<br />

Total Current Assets 44,431 50,686 66,004 80,352 98,127<br />

Total Assets 85,967 93,503 109,816 124,719 143,236<br />

Shareholders' Equity 66,661 76,389 88,963 103,134 119,133<br />

Total Equity 66,661 76,389 88,963 103,134 119,133<br />

Long Term Debt 179 22 18 13 9<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 2,320 2,669 2,739 2,775 2,816<br />

Total Current Liabilities 16,985 14,444 18,115 18,811 21,286<br />

Total Liabilities 19,305 17,113 20,854 21,585 24,102<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 85,967 93,503 109,816 124,719 143,236<br />

Cash Flow Statement (Rs m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 11,625 14,478 19,573 22,178 25,277<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 2,733 3,122 3,380 3,618 3,858<br />

Tax Paid (2,642) (3,315) (4,702) (5,407) (6,332)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (1,620) 2,454 (4,662) (5,369) (2,284)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 10,251 17,128 13,073 14,501 19,926<br />

Capital Expenditure (7,105) (5,611) (4,000) (4,200) (4,700)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (2,052) (4,197) (1,380) 70 306<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (9,084) (9,651) (4,726) (3,359) (3,522)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 1,967 (5,427) 1,417 422 124<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (2,622) (1,866) (1,866) (2,449) (2,760)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (828) (7,532) (566) (2,256) (2,891)<br />

Change in Cash 339 (55) 7,781 8,886 13,513<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 21.7% 23.6% 25.4% 25.4% 25.7%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 17.3% 19.2% 21.2% 21.5% 22.0%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 15.6% 16.3% 18.4% 18.3% 18.5%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 15.7% 16.0% 18.2% 17.6% 17.2%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 13.9% 15.1% 17.1% 17.0% 17.2%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 14.6% 16.0% 19.4% 20.6% 22.3%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 8.1% 0.2% 1.7% 1.9% 1.8%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 6.7% - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 126.5% 125.5% 123.0% 122.1% 120.6%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.7x 1.7x 4.3x 3.7x 3.9x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 63.3x 56.5x 148.7x 86.5x 89.4x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 5.7% 6.3% 47.9% 93.4% 146.0%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 261.6% 350.9% 364.4% 427.2% 461.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 149.4% 222.8% 249.8% 303.6% 344.2%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

111 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


CLP Holdings Ltd. (2 HK)<br />

Sector: Utilities Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Utilities<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.0x<br />

Country: Hong Kong<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 112.3%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.7x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

CLP Holdings Limited is the holding company of the CLP Group of companies. The Company, along with<br />

its subsidiaries, is principally engaged in the generation, transmission and distribution of electricity in<br />

Hong Kong, Australia and India. It also has equity stakes in power projects in the Mainland China,<br />

Southeast Asia and Taiwan.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (HK$ m) 4,756 3,866 4,070 4,608 4,662<br />

Gross Debt (HK$ m) 71,723 92,917 94,821 96,167 95,643<br />

Interest Expense (HK$ m) (4,199) (5,438) (6,214) (6,291) (6,525)<br />

EBIT (HK$ m) 11,997 15,173 13,541 15,574 16,206<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 89.9% 114.2% 112.3% 108.0% 101.9%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 68.5% 66.6% 73.8% 72.1% 68.9%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 3.9x 3.8x 4.6x 4.2x 4.1x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.0x 0.5x 1.0x 1.5x 1.4x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 6.3x 4.9x 4.6x 5.0x 5.0x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (HK$ m) 58,410 91,634 101,072 106,873 111,345<br />

% Change (YoY) 15.3% 56.9% 10.3% 5.7% 4.2%<br />

EBITDA (HK$ m) 17,062 21,526 20,479 22,541 23,315<br />

% of Sales 29.2% 23.5% 20.3% 21.1% 20.9%<br />

Net Income (HK$ m) 10,332 9,288 9,169 10,824 11,238<br />

% of Sales 17.7% 10.1% 9.1% 10.1% 10.1%<br />

Free Cash Flow (HK$ m) 5,433 5,286 8,314 9,333 11,108<br />

% of Sales 9.3% 5.8% 8.2% 8.7% 10.0%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 7,994 4,756 3,866 4,070 4,608<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 5,433 5,286 8,314 9,333 11,108<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 13,427 10,042 12,180 13,403 15,716<br />

Principal Repayments 13,353 36,839 14,796 10,354 12,124<br />

Interest Payments 1,902 3,119 2,953 3,123 3,243<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 15,255 39,958 17,749 13,477 15,367<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.9x 0.3x 0.7x 1.0x 1.0x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In HK$ m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 3,866 4.8%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 53,245 65.5%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 57,111 70.3%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 57,111 70.3%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 81,261 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

36.9% 37.8% 38.1%<br />

63.1% 62.2% 61.9%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(HK$ m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 158,926 156,038 156,038<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 92,917 94,821 96,167<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

1.6x<br />

7.0x<br />

1.4x<br />

6.0x<br />

1.2x<br />

5.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.8x<br />

0.6x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

0.4x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.2x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

1.2x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EI175723 Corp At Maturity Company Guarantee US$ 500.0 500.0 99.08 19-Mar-2010 19-Mar-2020 4.75% 2<br />

EI696070 Corp At Maturity Company Guarantee US$ 300.0 300.0 N.A. 12-Jul-2011 12-Jul-2021 4.75% 2<br />

EH958883 Corp At Maturity Company Guarantee JPY 15,000.0 15,000.0 100.00 18-Mar-2009 18-Mar-2024 3.28% 2<br />

112 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

1.0x<br />

0.8x<br />

0.6x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.9x<br />

0.3x<br />

0.7x<br />

1.0x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

83<br />

78<br />

73<br />

68<br />

63<br />

58<br />

53<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

CLP Holdings Ltd.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (HK$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 58,410 91,634 101,072 106,873 111,345<br />

Operating Expenses (41,348) (70,108) (80,593) (84,332) (88,030)<br />

EBITDA 17,062 21,526 20,479 22,541 23,315<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (5,065) (6,353) (6,938) (6,967) (7,109)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 11,997 15,173 13,541 15,574 16,206<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (1,311) (2,276) (2,423) (2,671) (2,793)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) (2,800) (3,583) (3,566) (3,473) (3,574)<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 2,893 3,610 2,865 2,950 3,023<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 11,179 10,939 10,416 12,381 12,863<br />

Taxes on Profit (844) (1,650) (1,246) (1,556) (1,624)<br />

Minority Interests (3) (1) (1) (1) (1)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 10,332 9,288 9,169 10,824 11,238<br />

Balance Sheet (HK$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 115,731 128,571 133,430 138,180 142,201<br />

Long-term Investments 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Associates 22,854 19,691 20,770 21,884 23,025<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 9,150 27,369 26,794 26,276 25,810<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 160,641 187,233 192,340 197,642 202,297<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 13,958 23,189 23,614 24,059 24,689<br />

Total Current Assets 18,714 27,055 27,683 28,667 29,351<br />

Total Assets 179,355 214,288 220,023 226,309 231,648<br />

Shareholders' Equity 79,661 81,259 84,338 88,952 93,764<br />

Total Equity 79,758 81,352 84,432 89,047 93,860<br />

Long Term Debt 61,912 78,121 84,467 84,043 82,360<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 73,366 94,498 100,634 100,449 98,920<br />

Total Current Liabilities 26,231 38,438 34,957 36,812 38,869<br />

Total Liabilities 99,597 132,936 135,592 137,262 137,788<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 179,355 214,288 220,023 226,309 231,648<br />

Cash Flow Statement (HK$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 11,179 10,939 10,416 12,381 12,863<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 5,065 6,353 6,938 6,967 7,109<br />

Tax Paid (824) (800) (1,181) (1,500) (1,605)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (387) (3,080) 153 (739) (79)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 16,085 18,062 20,121 21,139 22,401<br />

Capital Expenditure (10,652) (12,776) (11,806) (11,806) (11,293)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (2,213) (15,713) 504 521 538<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (10,263) (25,259) (9,516) (9,448) (8,871)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 1,069 17,786 1,904 1,346 (524)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (5,967) (5,967) (6,090) (6,209) (6,427)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (9,114) 6,371 (10,401) (11,154) (13,476)<br />

Change in Cash (3,292) (826) 204 538 54<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 29.2% 23.5% 20.3% 21.1% 20.9%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 20.5% 16.6% 13.4% 14.6% 14.6%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 17.7% 10.1% 9.1% 10.1% 10.1%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 13.7% 11.5% 11.1% 12.5% 12.3%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 7.2% 7.8% 6.3% 7.0% 7.1%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 8.9% 8.5% 7.1% 7.9% 8.0%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 89.9% 114.2% 112.3% 108.0% 101.9%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 84.0% 109.5% 107.5% 102.8% 96.9%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 223.3% 244.6% 262.3% 257.6% 250.6%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.0x 0.5x 1.0x 1.5x 1.4x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 6.3x 4.9x 4.6x 5.0x 5.0x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 18.1% 10.1% 11.6% 12.5% 12.0%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 71.3% 70.4% 79.2% 77.9% 75.5%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 68.5% 66.6% 73.8% 72.1% 68.9%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

113 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


CNOOC Ltd. (883 HK)<br />

Sector: Energy Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Energy<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 3.8x<br />

Country: Hong Kong<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 9.9%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 5.2x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

CNOOC Limited (CNOOC) is the largest producer of offshore crude oil and natural gas in China. It is<br />

also one of the largest independent Oil & Gas, exploration and production companies in the world.<br />

The company is primarily engaged in the exploration, development, production and sales of Oil & Natural<br />

Gas. In China, the company operates in four major offshore production areas, which are Bohai Bay,<br />

Western South China Sea, Eastern South China Sea and East China Sea. The company also has<br />

upstream assets in Nigeria Australia and Indonesia and a Singapore based subsidiary which is involved<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (RMB m) 58,203 75,730 96,083 127,922 153,536<br />

Gross Debt (RMB m) 27,983 40,293 30,676 30,100 29,879<br />

Interest Expense (RMB m) (431) (1,665) (706) (996) (1,028)<br />

EBIT (RMB m) 71,145 90,607 87,928 80,572 73,751<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 13.0% 15.3% 9.9% 8.5% 7.6%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 139.4% 181.6% 320.3% 368.6% 461.3%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.2x 0.3x 0.3x 0.3x 0.3x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 16.8x 8.0x 3.8x 67.1x 87.9x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 165.1x 54.4x 124.5x 80.9x 71.7x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (RMB m) 178,580 239,748 237,362 230,545 226,799<br />

% Change (YoY) 70.6% 34.3% (1.0%) (2.9%) (1.6%)<br />

EBITDA (RMB m) 97,901 121,128 121,035 118,461 116,309<br />

% of Sales 54.8% 50.5% 51.0% 51.4% 51.3%<br />

Net Income (RMB m) 54,410 70,255 64,390 62,295 57,490<br />

% of Sales 30.5% 29.3% 27.1% 27.0% 25.3%<br />

Free Cash Flow (RMB m) 31,242 63,678 43,645 47,951 40,066<br />

% of Sales 17.5% 26.6% 18.4% 20.8% 17.7%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 52,067 58,203 75,730 96,083 127,922<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 31,242 63,678 43,645 47,951 40,066<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 83,309 121,881 119,375 144,034 167,988<br />

Principal Repayments 4,034 10,259 22,217 576 221<br />

Interest Payments 431 1,665 706 996 1,028<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 4,465 11,924 22,923 1,572 1,249<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 18.7x 10.2x 5.2x 91.6x 134.4x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In RMB m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 75,730 266.1%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 231,629 813.9%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 307,359 1,080.1%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 307,359 1,080.1%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 28,458 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(RMB m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 491,508 602,440 621,775<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 40,293 30,676 30,100<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

80.0x<br />

180.0x<br />

70.0x<br />

160.0x<br />

60.0x<br />

140.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

120.0x<br />

100.0x<br />

80.0x<br />

60.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

100.0x<br />

90.0x<br />

80.0x<br />

70.0x<br />

60.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

91.6x<br />

30.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

18.7x<br />

10.2x<br />

5.2x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EH799712 Corp At Maturity Unsecured RMB 10,000.0 10,000.0 100.00 29-Apr-2009 29-Apr-2014 3.49% 1<br />

EI538695 Corp Callable Company Guarantee US$ 1,500.0 1,500.0 98.59 26-Jan-2011 26-Jan-2021 4.25% 2<br />

EJ149166 Corp At Maturity Company Guarantee US$ 1,500.0 1,500.0 99.87 02-May-2012 02-May-2022 3.88% 2<br />

114 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

7.6%<br />

92.4%<br />

4.8%<br />

95.2%<br />

4.6%<br />

95.4%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

21<br />

19<br />

17<br />

15<br />

13<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

11<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

CNOOC Ltd.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (RMB m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 178,580 239,748 237,362 230,545 226,799<br />

Operating Expenses (82,135) (119,816) (117,852) (113,685) (112,170)<br />

EBITDA 97,901 121,128 121,035 118,461 116,309<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (26,756) (30,521) (33,107) (37,889) (42,559)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 71,145 90,607 87,928 80,572 73,751<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 250 801 723 946 1,348<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 810 590 717 1,046 1,046<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 398 567 484 496 509<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 72,603 92,565 89,853 83,060 76,654<br />

Taxes on Profit (18,193) (22,310) (25,463) (20,765) (19,163)<br />

Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 54,410 70,255 64,390 62,295 57,490<br />

Balance Sheet (RMB m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 186,678 220,567 247,215 269,091 286,594<br />

Long-term Investments 8,616 7,365 7,365 7,365 7,365<br />

Associates 22,604 22,997 23,137 23,282 23,433<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 1,148 1,033 1,033 1,033 1,033<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 219,046 252,341 279,129 301,151 318,803<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 41,181 56,193 56,731 57,131 57,777<br />

Total Current Assets 99,384 131,923 152,814 185,054 211,313<br />

Total Assets 318,430 384,264 431,943 486,204 530,116<br />

Shareholders' Equity 215,766 262,856 310,623 353,825 393,093<br />

Total Equity 215,766 262,856 310,623 353,825 393,093<br />

Long Term Debt 9,859 18,076 30,100 29,879 29,628<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 34,241 51,192 74,967 83,591 92,256<br />

Total Current Liabilities 68,423 70,216 46,353 48,788 44,767<br />

Total Liabilities 102,664 121,408 121,320 132,380 137,023<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 318,430 384,264 431,943 486,204 530,116<br />

Cash Flow Statement (RMB m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 72,603 92,565 89,853 83,060 76,654<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 26,756 30,521 33,107 37,889 42,559<br />

Tax Paid (15,038) (24,638) (21,897) (21,074) (19,685)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (13,542) 19,758 (3,326) 2,698 (4,175)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 70,883 116,171 96,922 101,352 93,899<br />

Capital Expenditure (39,641) (52,493) (53,277) (53,400) (53,833)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (34,426) (36,528) 141 165 188<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (64,203) (99,036) (49,267) (48,847) (48,813)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 13,211 2,552 (9,617) (576) (221)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (14,390) (20,877) (16,979) (19,094) (18,222)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (1,610) (20,246) (27,302) (20,666) (19,472)<br />

Change in Cash 5,070 (3,111) 20,353 31,839 25,614<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 54.8% 50.5% 51.0% 51.4% 51.3%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 39.8% 37.8% 37.0% 34.9% 32.5%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 30.5% 29.3% 27.1% 27.0% 25.3%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 27.9% 29.4% 22.5% 18.8% 15.4%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 25.6% 26.1% 21.9% 18.0% 15.0%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 32.0% 33.6% 25.7% 22.4% 19.1%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 13.0% 15.3% 9.9% 8.5% 7.6%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 0.3% 6.3% - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 143.9% 146.8% 142.3% 138.2% 136.1%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 16.8x 8.0x 3.8x 67.1x 87.9x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 165.1x 54.4x 124.5x 80.9x 71.7x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 39.9% 33.7% 95.0% 155.5% 226.7%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 145.2% 187.9% 329.7% 379.3% 472.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 139.4% 181.6% 320.3% 368.6% 461.3%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

115 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Coal India Limited (COAL IN)<br />

Sector: Energy Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Energy<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 25.0x<br />

Country: India<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 3.1%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 145.9x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Coal India Limited (CIL) is the world’s largest coal producing company. It commands a market share of<br />

81% of India’s total coal production and owns 48% of India’s proven coal reserves. Non-coking coal,<br />

which is primarily used in the domestic thermal power generation industry, constitutes a majority of the<br />

Company’s coal production and a relatively smaller portion of CIL’s coal is also sold to the steel and<br />

cement industries. CIL operates 471 mines in 21 coalfields across eight states in India through 11<br />

subsidiaries. The Company has 163 open-cast (OC), 273 underground mines and 35 mixed mines.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Mar) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Rs m) 460,192 592,372 671,224 717,852 830,819<br />

Gross Debt (Rs m) 13,664 13,333 15,166 14,000 11,833<br />

Interest Expense (Rs m) (737) (540) (584) (598) (530)<br />

EBIT (Rs m) 117,122 136,986 148,004 158,375 169,877<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 4.1% 3.3% 3.1% 2.5% 1.8%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 235.3% 237.8% 251.1% 259.9% 271.3%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.1x 0.1x 0.1x 0.1x 0.1x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 13.1x 32.3x 25.0x 21.9x 20.1x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 158.9x 253.8x 253.3x 264.9x 320.8x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (Rs m) 502,293 624,154 675,216 711,637 748,442<br />

% Change (YoY) 6.1% 24.3% 8.2% 5.4% 5.2%<br />

EBITDA (Rs m) 134,776 156,678 166,441 178,193 191,155<br />

% of Sales 26.8% 25.1% 24.7% 25.0% 25.5%<br />

Net Income (Rs m) 108,674 147,882 155,722 166,748 179,618<br />

% of Sales 21.6% 23.7% 23.1% 23.4% 24.0%<br />

Free Cash Flow (Rs m) 61,363 164,785 100,934 75,798 144,813<br />

% of Sales 12.2% 26.4% 14.9% 10.7% 19.3%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 390,782 460,192 592,372 671,224 717,852<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 61,363 164,785 100,934 75,798 144,813<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 452,145 624,976 693,305 747,023 862,665<br />

Principal Repayments 6,294 2,993 4,167 5,167 6,167<br />

Interest Payments 737 540 584 598 530<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 7,031 3,532 4,751 5,764 6,696<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 64.3x 176.9x 145.9x 129.6x 128.8x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In Rs m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 592,372 2,127.2%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 601,443 2,159.8%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 1,193,815 4,287.0%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 1,193,815 4,287.0%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 27,847 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

116 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

0.6%<br />

99.4%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

0.7%<br />

99.3%<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(Rs m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 2,172,198 2,265,680 2,265,680<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 13,333 15,166 14,000<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

35.0x<br />

300.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

250.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

200.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

150.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

100.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

200.0x<br />

180.0x<br />

176.9x<br />

160.0x<br />

145.9x<br />

140.0x<br />

120.0x<br />

100.0x<br />

129.6x<br />

80.0x<br />

60.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

64.3x<br />

2011A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (Rs)<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

0.6%<br />

99.4%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

454<br />

404<br />

354<br />

304<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

254<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Coal India Limited<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (Rs m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 502,293 624,154 675,216 711,637 748,442<br />

Operating Expenses (367,517) (467,476) (508,775) (533,444) (557,288)<br />

EBITDA 134,776 156,678 166,441 178,193 191,155<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (17,654) (19,692) (18,437) (19,818) (21,277)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 117,122 136,986 148,004 158,375 169,877<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 27,866 51,710 52,938 58,091 64,557<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 20,118 23,119 26,273 26,666 27,749<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 164,632 212,727 226,810 243,133 262,183<br />

Taxes on Profit (55,959) (64,845) (71,089) (76,384) (82,565)<br />

Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 108,674 147,882 155,722 166,748 179,618<br />

Balance Sheet (Rs m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 120,647 126,812 140,864 155,451 170,789<br />

Long-term Investments 8,510 9,470 9,607 9,703 9,799<br />

Associates 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 7,786 7,591 6,291 5,031 3,890<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 175,463 195,713 221,035 240,866 260,346<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 222,991 281,382 273,470 320,408 305,676<br />

Total Current Assets 683,183 873,754 944,695 1,038,260 1,136,496<br />

Total Assets 858,646 1,069,466 1,165,730 1,279,126 1,396,841<br />

Shareholders' Equity 333,142 404,530 481,301 563,508 652,060<br />

Total Equity 333,468 405,066 481,837 564,044 652,596<br />

Long Term Debt 13,338 13,333 15,166 14,000 11,833<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 258,519 322,516 337,467 347,481 356,710<br />

Total Current Liabilities 266,659 341,884 346,426 367,601 387,535<br />

Total Liabilities 525,178 664,400 683,893 715,082 744,246<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 858,646 1,069,466 1,165,730 1,279,126 1,396,841<br />

Cash Flow Statement (Rs m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 164,632 212,727 226,810 243,133 262,183<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 17,654 19,692 18,437 19,818 21,277<br />

Tax Paid (56,228) (67,044) (60,425) (64,927) (70,180)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (43,284) 35,647 5,233 (26,779) 34,430<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 87,045 198,879 139,982 114,927 184,965<br />

Capital Expenditure (25,682) (34,094) (39,049) (39,129) (40,152)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 1,915 (1,356) (341) (320) (342)<br />

Cash Flow from Investing 10,403 (1,094) 29,377 32,564 38,193<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (5,035) (2,474) 1,833 (1,167) (2,167)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (25,832) (74,291) (78,941) (83,811) (90,214)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (30,165) (73,821) (90,570) (100,968) (110,295)<br />

Change in Cash 67,282 123,964 78,789 46,524 112,863<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 26.8% 25.1% 24.7% 25.0% 25.5%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 23.3% 21.9% 21.9% 22.3% 22.7%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 21.6% 23.7% 23.1% 23.4% 24.0%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 36.8% 40.1% 35.2% 31.9% 29.6%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 18.6% 19.6% 18.0% 17.8% 17.6%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 1,226.9% 76.4% 76.9% 67.4% 66.0%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 4.1% 3.3% 3.1% 2.5% 1.8%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 265.1% 261.4% 252.3% 234.0% 220.1%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 13.1x 32.3x 25.0x 21.9x 20.1x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 158.9x 253.8x 253.3x 264.9x 320.8x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 171.8% 170.2% 190.8% 192.4% 211.6%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 256.2% 255.6% 272.7% 282.4% 293.3%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 235.3% 237.8% 251.1% 259.9% 271.3%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

117 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Comba Telecom Systems Holdings Limited (2342 HK)<br />

Sector: Information Technology Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Technology Hardware & Equipment Debt Service Cover (x) 0.3x<br />

Country: Hong Kong<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 34.6%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.5x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Comba Telecom is a supplier of infrastructure and wireless enhancement solutions to mobile operators<br />

and enterprises. Wireless Enhancement, Antennas & Subsystems, Wireless Access, and Services are<br />

the major segments of the company. The company has over 40 offices around the world. Comba<br />

Telecom has its corporate headquarter in Hong Kong. The company was established in 1997 and is<br />

listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (HK$ m) 1,473 1,114 1,293 673 899<br />

Gross Debt (HK$ m) 593 1,124 1,405 1,104 803<br />

Interest Expense (HK$ m) (20) (29) (38) (38) (29)<br />

EBIT (HK$ m) 833 696 105 492 870<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 17.9% 27.5% 34.6% 25.1% 16.1%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 138.3% 117.8% 130.1% 118.9% 121.2%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.6x 1.1x 5.0x 1.9x 0.9x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.7x 0.7x 0.3x 1.7x 2.7x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 41.6x 23.9x 2.8x 13.1x 30.4x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (HK$ m) 5,191 6,354 6,799 7,510 8,248<br />

% Change (YoY) 16.9% 22.4% 7.0% 10.5% 9.8%<br />

EBITDA (HK$ m) 913 799 255 656 1,049<br />

% of Sales 17.6% 12.6% 3.7% 8.7% 12.7%<br />

Net Income (HK$ m) 724 659 85 400 725<br />

% of Sales 14.0% 10.4% 1.3% 5.3% 8.8%<br />

Free Cash Flow (HK$ m) 313 (568) 34 (232) 687<br />

% of Sales 6.0% (8.9%) 0.5% (3.1%) 8.3%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 1,146 1,473 1,114 1,293 673<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 313 (568) 34 (232) 687<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 1,459 905 1,149 1,062 1,360<br />

Principal Repayments 448 987 719 301 301<br />

Interest Payments 20 29 38 38 29<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 468 1,017 757 339 330<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 3.1x 0.9x 1.5x 3.1x 4.1x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In HK$ m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 1,114 54.2%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 1,960 95.3%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 3,074 149.4%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 3,074 149.4%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 2,058 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

118 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

10.5%<br />

89.5%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(HK$ m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 9,554 4,258 4,487<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 1,124 1,405 1,104<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

1.8x<br />

45.0x<br />

1.6x<br />

40.0x<br />

1.4x<br />

35.0x<br />

1.2x<br />

30.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

0.8x<br />

20.0x<br />

0.6x<br />

15.0x<br />

0.4x<br />

10.0x<br />

0.2x<br />

5.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

3.5x<br />

3.1x<br />

3.0x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

24.8%<br />

75.2%<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

19.7%<br />

80.3%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

2.5x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.9x<br />

1.5x<br />

3.1x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

7.40<br />

6.40<br />

5.40<br />

4.40<br />

3.40<br />

2.40<br />

1.40<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Comba Telecom Systems Holdings Limited<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (HK$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 5,191 6,354 6,799 7,510 8,248<br />

Operating Expenses (4,279) (5,555) (6,544) (6,854) (7,199)<br />

EBITDA 913 799 255 656 1,049<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (80) (104) (149) (164) (179)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 833 696 105 492 870<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (15) (20) (30) (31) (23)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 39 101 26 14 15<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 857 777 101 475 862<br />

Taxes on Profit (120) (122) (15) (73) (133)<br />

Minority Interests (13) 4 0 (2) (4)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 724 659 85 400 725<br />

Balance Sheet (HK$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 513 731 873 970 1,065<br />

Long-term Investments 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Associates 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 38 57 52 49 47<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 731 1,179 1,246 1,326 1,416<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 5,059 7,288 7,824 8,477 8,856<br />

Total Current Assets 6,532 8,403 9,117 9,150 9,755<br />

Total Assets 7,262 9,581 10,363 10,476 11,171<br />

Shareholders' Equity 3,240 4,014 3,988 4,326 4,908<br />

Total Equity 3,309 4,083 4,058 4,397 4,983<br />

Long Term Debt 474 405 1,104 803 502<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 483 423 1,104 803 502<br />

Total Current Liabilities 3,471 5,076 5,202 5,276 5,686<br />

Total Liabilities 3,953 5,499 6,305 6,079 6,188<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 7,262 9,581 10,363 10,476 11,171<br />

Cash Flow Statement (HK$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 857 777 101 475 862<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 80 104 149 164 179<br />

Tax Paid (101) (201) (57) (64) (93)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (398) (1,093) 50 (588) (9)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 471 (279) 274 18 962<br />

Capital Expenditure (158) (289) (240) (250) (275)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 1 (57) 5 6 7<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (155) (391) (227) (237) (263)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 136 489 281 (301) (301)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 41 30 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (204) (239) (111) (62) (143)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (47) 252 132 (401) (473)<br />

Change in Cash 269 (418) 179 (620) 226<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 17.6% 12.6% 3.7% 8.7% 12.7%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 16.0% 10.9% 1.6% 6.6% 10.6%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 14.0% 10.4% 1.3% 5.3% 8.8%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 25.1% 18.2% 2.1% 9.6% 15.7%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 12.9% 8.4% 1.1% 4.8% 8.1%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 33.1% 17.9% 2.2% 9.3% 15.1%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 17.9% 27.5% 34.6% 25.1% 16.1%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - 0.2% 2.7% 9.8% -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 224.9% 232.2% 249.2% 250.6% 234.4%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.7x 0.7x 0.3x 1.7x 2.7x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 41.6x 23.9x 2.8x 13.1x 30.4x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 42.4% 22.0% 24.9% 12.8% 15.8%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 188.2% 165.5% 175.3% 173.4% 171.5%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 138.3% 117.8% 130.1% 118.9% 121.2%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

119 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Compal Electronics, Inc. (2324 TT)<br />

Sector: Information Technology Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Technology Hardware & Equipment Debt Service Cover (x) 1.1x<br />

Country: Taiwan<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 13.6%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 4.8x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Compal Electronics, headquarted in Taiwan, is a leading manufacturer of notebook PCs and LCD<br />

products. The other products of the company include smartphones and tablets. The company has been<br />

taking solid strides in the development of 5Cs namely, Cloud, Connecting, Computing, Communication<br />

and Consumer. The company manufactures its products at its manufacturing facilities in China, offshore<br />

manufacturing base in Vietnam, and manufacturing plant in Brazil. Compal has also set up a Notebook<br />

service center in Poland.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (NT$ m) 64,486 53,106 49,141 47,042 50,951<br />

Gross Debt (NT$ m) 39,177 15,014 15,701 13,013 11,582<br />

Interest Expense (NT$ m) (359) (459) (353) (330) (283)<br />

EBIT (NT$ m) 24,126 13,462 9,720 12,767 16,426<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 32.3% 13.2% 13.6% 10.7% 8.9%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 113.9% 115.0% 119.9% 119.6% 126.1%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 1.2x 1.4x 1.0x 0.8x 0.5x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 56.4x 0.6x 1.1x 1.1x 1.5x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 67.2x 29.3x 27.5x 38.7x 58.1x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (NT$ m) 887,004 693,127 679,748 737,974 809,163<br />

% Change (YoY) 31.3% (21.9%) (1.9%) 8.6% 9.6%<br />

EBITDA (NT$ m) 29,535 18,825 15,567 18,834 22,685<br />

% of Sales 3.3% 2.7% 2.3% 2.6% 2.8%<br />

Net Income (NT$ m) 23,272 11,015 6,514 8,461 11,336<br />

% of Sales 2.6% 1.6% 1.0% 1.1% 1.4%<br />

Free Cash Flow (NT$ m) 15,307 27,336 754 3,465 9,250<br />

% of Sales 1.7% 3.9% 0.1% 0.5% 1.1%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 48,187 64,486 53,106 49,141 47,042<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 15,307 27,336 754 3,465 9,250<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 63,494 91,822 53,859 52,606 56,292<br />

Principal Repayments 136 24,520 10,963 12,688 11,432<br />

Interest Payments 359 459 353 330 283<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 495 24,978 11,316 13,018 11,714<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 128.4x 3.7x 4.8x 4.0x 4.8x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In NT$ m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 53,106 91.9%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 20,393 35.3%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 73,498 127.1%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 73,498 127.1%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 57,817 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

120 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

10.3%<br />

89.7%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(NT$ m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 130,226 84,302 85,165<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 15,014 15,701 13,013<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

140.0x 128.4x<br />

120.0x<br />

15.7%<br />

84.3%<br />

20.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

3.7x 4.8x 4.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

13.3%<br />

86.7%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

60.0x<br />

80.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

70.0x<br />

60.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (NT$)<br />

100.0x<br />

80.0x<br />

60.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

40<br />

35<br />

30<br />

25<br />

20<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

15<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Compal Electronics, Inc.<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (NT$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 887,004 693,127 679,748 737,974 809,163<br />

Operating Expenses (857,469) (674,301) (664,181) (719,139) (786,478)<br />

EBITDA 29,535 18,825 15,567 18,834 22,685<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (5,409) (5,363) (5,847) (6,067) (6,259)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 24,126 13,462 9,720 12,767 16,426<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 297 642 427 405 466<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 4,422 601 872 193 193<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits (338) (1,390) (1,577) (1,042) (591)<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 28,246 13,224 9,440 12,323 16,495<br />

Taxes on Profit (4,929) (2,128) (2,105) (2,795) (3,729)<br />

Minority Interests (45) (82) (822) (1,067) (1,430)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 23,272 11,015 6,514 8,461 11,336<br />

Balance Sheet (NT$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 12,661 14,857 13,445 11,189 8,622<br />

Long-term Investments 21,969 15,382 15,361 15,361 15,361<br />

Associates 7,444 8,526 6,949 5,906 5,316<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 1,754 1,533 1,480 1,539 1,588<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 46,516 42,783 39,882 36,766 33,772<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 222,221 182,958 206,578 215,812 242,352<br />

Total Current Assets 286,707 236,063 255,719 262,854 293,303<br />

Total Assets 333,224 278,846 295,601 299,620 327,075<br />

Shareholders' Equity 113,156 106,060 106,516 111,395 118,077<br />

Total Equity 121,134 114,098 115,375 121,320 129,432<br />

Long Term Debt 107 25 500 325 163<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 322 221 696 521 359<br />

Total Current Liabilities 211,767 164,528 179,530 177,778 197,283<br />

Total Liabilities 212,089 164,749 180,226 178,299 197,642<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 333,224 278,846 295,601 299,620 327,075<br />

Cash Flow Statement (NT$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 28,246 13,224 9,440 12,323 16,495<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 5,409 5,363 5,847 6,067 6,259<br />

Tax Paid (4,179) (4,461) (2,000) (2,655) (3,543)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (1,844) 18,131 (8,830) (8,473) (5,765)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 23,098 34,444 5,954 8,165 13,850<br />

Capital Expenditure (7,792) (7,108) (5,200) (4,700) (4,600)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 356 (2,247) 656 706 744<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (7,328) (9,457) (4,544) (3,994) (3,856)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 13,227 (24,520) 687 (2,688) (1,432)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 420 (963) 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (10,148) (11,770) (6,058) (3,582) (4,654)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 2,832 (37,414) (5,371) (6,271) (6,085)<br />

Change in Cash 18,603 (12,427) (3,962) (2,099) 3,909<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 3.3% 2.7% 2.3% 2.6% 2.8%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 2.7% 1.9% 1.4% 1.7% 2.0%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 2.6% 1.6% 1.0% 1.1% 1.4%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 22.1% 10.0% 6.1% 7.8% 9.9%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 7.4% 4.8% 3.7% 4.5% 5.5%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 30.5% 19.0% 13.5% 15.7% 18.7%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 32.3% 13.2% 13.6% 10.7% 8.9%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 316.9% 279.2% 270.2% 273.1% 273.1%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 56.4x 0.6x 1.1x 1.1x 1.5x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 67.2x 29.3x 27.5x 38.7x 58.1x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 30.0% 31.8% 27.0% 26.0% 25.4%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 135.4% 143.5% 142.4% 147.9% 148.7%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 113.9% 115.0% 119.9% 119.6% 126.1%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

121 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Computershare Limited (CPU AU)<br />

Sector: Information Technology Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Software & Services<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.4x<br />

Country: Australia<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 132.2%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 3.3x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Founded in 1978, Computershare Limited is a leading provider of financial market services & technology<br />

services. The Company provides services in over 20 countries to more than 30,000 clients through its<br />

huge human resource of over 10,000 employees. The portfolio of Computershare services range from<br />

Transfer Agency, Register Maintenance, Employee Equity solutions, Funds services, Proxy Solicitation,<br />

Policy Compliance, Stakeholder Relationship Management, Business services (Bankruptcy<br />

Administration, Voucher Services, etc.), Communication services & Regulatory & Governance services<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 30 Jun) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (US$ m) 281 350 595 864 847<br />

Gross Debt (US$ m) 994 1,013 1,695 1,822 1,651<br />

Interest Expense (US$ m) (29) (32) (48) (62) (61)<br />

EBIT (US$ m) 411 381 219 323 412<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 92.6% 81.4% 132.2% 131.1% 108.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 129.7% 134.0% 193.9% 236.9% 188.7%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 2.0x 2.2x 4.3x 4.3x 3.6x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.9x 0.5x 1.4x 2.6x 0.9x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 14.0x 11.9x 4.6x 5.2x 6.7x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (US$ m) 1,600 1,599 1,802 2,046 2,192<br />

% Change (YoY) 6.9% 0.0% 12.7% 13.5% 7.1%<br />

EBITDA (US$ m) 483 463 314 411 486<br />

% of Sales 30.2% 29.0% 17.4% 20.1% 22.2%<br />

Net Income (US$ m) 295 264 156 212 278<br />

% of Sales 18.4% 16.5% 8.7% 10.4% 12.7%<br />

Free Cash Flow (US$ m) 353 296 232 248 296<br />

% of Sales 22.0% 18.5% 12.9% 12.1% 13.5%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 193 281 350 595 864<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 353 296 232 248 296<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 545 577 582 843 1,159<br />

Principal Repayments 372 639 129 73 371<br />

Interest Payments 29 32 48 62 61<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 401 671 177 135 432<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.4x 0.9x 3.3x 6.3x 2.7x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In US$ m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 350 21.1%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 1,492 90.2%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 1,842 111.3%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 694 42.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 2,536 153.3%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 1,654 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

122 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

16.1%<br />

83.9%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(US$ m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 5,284 4,215 5,499<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 1,013 1,695 1,822<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

7.0x<br />

28.7%<br />

71.3%<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

24.9%<br />

75.1%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

3.0x<br />

16.0x<br />

2.5x<br />

14.0x<br />

12.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

8.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (A$)<br />

6.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

11.23<br />

10.23<br />

9.23<br />

8.23<br />

7.23<br />

1.4x<br />

0.9x<br />

3.3x<br />

6.3x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

6.23<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Computershare Limited<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (US$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 1,600 1,599 1,802 2,046 2,192<br />

Operating Expenses (1,117) (1,136) (1,488) (1,635) (1,706)<br />

EBITDA 483 463 314 411 486<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (72) (82) (95) (88) (74)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 411 381 219 323 412<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (19) (26) (41) (52) (50)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 16 13 32 23 23<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 3 0 0 1 1<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 411 368 210 295 386<br />

Taxes on Profit (109) (100) (51) (78) (103)<br />

Minority Interests (7) (5) (3) (4) (6)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 295 264 156 212 278<br />

Balance Sheet (US$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 145 155 190 178 171<br />

Long-term Investments 6 7 5 6 6<br />

Associates 19 28 28 28 29<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 1,776 1,863 2,371 2,342 2,323<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 2,037 2,139 2,714 2,675 2,649<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 373 384 421 467 513<br />

Total Current Assets 654 734 1,017 1,330 1,360<br />

Total Assets 2,690 2,873 3,731 4,005 4,010<br />

Shareholders' Equity 1,061 1,230 1,265 1,371 1,508<br />

Total Equity 1,073 1,245 1,282 1,390 1,529<br />

Long Term Debt 940 885 1,687 1,814 1,519<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 1,120 1,089 1,931 2,060 1,767<br />

Total Current Liabilities 497 538 518 555 714<br />

Total Liabilities 1,618 1,628 2,449 2,615 2,481<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 2,690 2,873 3,731 4,005 4,010<br />

Cash Flow Statement (US$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 411 368 210 295 386<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 72 82 95 88 74<br />

Tax Paid (82) (87) (50) (78) (103)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 23 (62) 68 (6) (11)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 414 320 322 298 346<br />

Capital Expenditure (62) (24) (90) (50) (50)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (99) (59) (546) 3 2<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (155) (82) (636) (47) (47)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (20) (10) 681 127 (171)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net (7) (30) 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (127) (155) (123) (108) (144)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (154) (195) 558 19 (315)<br />

Change in Cash 105 43 245 269 (17)<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 30.2% 29.0% 17.4% 20.1% 22.2%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 25.7% 23.8% 12.2% 15.8% 18.8%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 18.4% 16.5% 8.7% 10.4% 12.7%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 30.2% 23.0% 12.5% 16.1% 19.3%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 16.0% 13.9% 6.8% 8.6% 10.5%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 15.8% 13.8% 7.1% 9.2% 11.8%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 92.6% 81.4% 132.2% 131.1% 108.0%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 66.7% 53.5% 86.0% 69.1% 52.8%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 265.4% 242.8% 264.6% 293.4% 278.4%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.9x 0.5x 1.4x 2.6x 0.9x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 14.0x 11.9x 4.6x 5.2x 6.7x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 56.0% 64.5% 114.3% 155.2% 118.3%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 131.4% 136.3% 196.1% 239.7% 190.5%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 129.7% 134.0% 193.9% 236.9% 188.7%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

123 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


COSCO Pacific Ltd. (1199 HK)<br />

Sector: Industrials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Transportation<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.7x<br />

Country: Hong Kong<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 63.0%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.5x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

COSCO Pacific Limited is a global market leader in container terminal operations and container leasing<br />

businesses. The company is the world’s fifth largest operator of container terminals with a global market<br />

share of 8.8%. It is also the world’s third largest container leasing company with a total container fleet<br />

(owned and managed) of 1.78 million TEUs as at 31 December 2011 which represented approximately<br />

12.5% share of the global industry.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (US$ '000) 524,274 580,958 609,049 571,854 604,183<br />

Gross Debt (US$ '000) 1,558,755 2,167,994 2,597,863 2,545,000 2,526,842<br />

Interest Expense (US$ '000) (43,931) (76,071) (74,601) (77,179) (83,450)<br />

EBIT (US$ '000) 91,650 156,960 214,573 216,613 227,462<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 44.6% 55.9% 63.0% 58.1% 54.4%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 226.7% 105.2% 67.0% 78.0% 93.6%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 7.8x 6.2x 6.1x 6.1x 5.6x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.6x 0.5x 0.7x 0.4x 0.6x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 2.1x 2.1x 2.9x 2.8x 2.7x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (US$ '000) 446,492 599,159 729,402 790,145 850,457<br />

% Change (YoY) 27.8% 34.2% 21.7% 8.3% 7.6%<br />

EBITDA (US$ '000) 203,471 299,113 388,824 421,057 451,071<br />

% of Sales 45.6% 49.9% 53.3% 53.3% 53.0%<br />

Net Income (US$ '000) 361,307 388,771 375,799 406,303 428,417<br />

% of Sales 80.9% 64.9% 51.5% 51.4% 50.4%<br />

Free Cash Flow (US$ '000) (122,552) (338,871) (329,679) 92,718 139,549<br />

% of Sales (27.4%) (56.6%) (45.2%) 11.7% 16.4%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 426,321 524,274 580,958 609,049 571,854<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (122,552) (338,871) (329,679) 92,718 139,549<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 303,769 185,403 251,279 701,767 711,404<br />

Principal Repayments 265,153 536,866 420,131 902,863 668,158<br />

Interest Payments 43,931 76,071 74,601 77,179 83,450<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 309,084 612,937 494,732 980,042 751,608<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.0x 0.3x 0.5x 0.7x 0.9x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In US$ '000)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 580,958 16.6%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 433,777 12.4%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 1,014,735 29.1%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 1,041,658 29.8%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 2,056,393 58.9%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 3,492,255 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

40.6% 40.2% 38.2%<br />

59.4% 59.8% 61.8%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(US$ '000) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 3,166,552 3,862,830 4,114,541<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 2,167,994 2,597,863 2,545,000<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

0.8x<br />

3.5x<br />

0.7x<br />

3.0x<br />

0.6x<br />

2.5x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.3x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

0.2x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.1x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

1.2x<br />

1.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

ED165223 Corp At Maturity Company Guarantee US$ 300.0 300.0 99.37 03-Oct-2003 03-Oct-2013 5.88% 2<br />

124 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

0.8x<br />

0.6x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.2x<br />

15.51<br />

13.51<br />

11.51<br />

9.51<br />

0.3x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.7x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

7.51<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

COSCO Pacific Ltd.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (US$ '000) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 446,492 599,159 729,402 790,145 850,457<br />

Operating Expenses (243,021) (300,046) (340,578) (369,088) (399,386)<br />

EBITDA 203,471 299,113 388,824 421,057 451,071<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (111,821) (142,153) (174,251) (204,445) (223,609)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 91,650 156,960 214,573 216,613 227,462<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (19,779) (51,213) (66,494) (70,197) (76,492)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 17,692 23,255 34,183 36,917 39,631<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 206,774 275,928 240,352 271,093 287,918<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 297,139 426,377 420,675 452,261 476,240<br />

Taxes on Profit (15,653) (28,771) (33,253) (33,393) (34,573)<br />

Minority Interests (4,889) (8,835) (11,623) (12,566) (13,250)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 84,710 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 361,307 388,771 375,799 406,303 428,417<br />

Balance Sheet (US$ '000)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 1,777,518 2,608,350 3,227,588 3,462,713 3,618,783<br />

Long-term Investments 25,000 17,000 17,000 17,000 17,000<br />

Associates 2,081,110 2,116,660 2,238,734 2,375,767 2,520,016<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 149,329 233,101 228,648 224,201 219,759<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 4,476,381 5,621,762 6,281,552 6,521,003 6,739,924<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 251,262 269,464 277,783 281,436 284,613<br />

Total Current Assets 775,536 850,422 886,832 853,290 888,796<br />

Total Assets 5,251,917 6,472,184 7,168,384 7,374,293 7,628,720<br />

Shareholders' Equity 3,348,121 3,627,312 3,867,207 4,117,089 4,378,563<br />

Total Equity 3,493,862 3,880,159 4,123,541 4,377,193 4,642,641<br />

Long Term Debt 1,389,646 1,573,470 1,520,607 1,702,449 1,834,142<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 1,421,885 1,792,301 1,739,438 1,921,280 2,052,973<br />

Total Current Liabilities 336,170 799,724 1,305,405 1,075,820 933,106<br />

Total Liabilities 1,758,055 2,592,025 3,044,843 2,997,100 2,986,079<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 5,251,917 6,472,184 7,168,384 7,374,293 7,628,720<br />

Cash Flow Statement (US$ '000)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 297,139 426,377 420,675 452,261 476,240<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 111,821 142,153 174,251 204,445 223,609<br />

Tax Paid (6,239) (11,330) (24,020) (30,112) (33,012)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 33,978 9,043 23,694 17,216 21,720<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 252,790 328,098 421,321 443,718 478,049<br />

Capital Expenditure (375,342) (666,969) (751,000) (351,000) (338,500)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (118,077) 221,815 664 3,732 (593)<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (515,126) (227,423) (604,458) (185,654) (167,894)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (62,752) 68,452 429,869 (52,863) (18,158)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 601,481 452 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (118,914) (161,999) (135,904) (156,420) (166,944)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 379,274 (43,536) 211,228 (295,258) (277,826)<br />

Change in Cash 116,938 57,139 28,091 (37,195) 32,329<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 45.6% 49.9% 53.3% 53.3% 53.0%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 20.5% 26.2% 29.4% 27.4% 26.7%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 80.9% 64.9% 51.5% 51.4% 50.4%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 11.9% 11.1% 10.0% 10.2% 10.1%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 2.0% 2.8% 3.2% 3.1% 3.1%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 3.6% 4.9% 5.2% 4.9% 5.0%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 44.6% 55.9% 63.0% 58.1% 54.4%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 29.6% 40.9% 48.2% 45.1% 41.4%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 162.3% 168.1% 182.0% 182.1% 176.6%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.6x 0.5x 0.7x 0.4x 0.6x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 2.1x 2.1x 2.9x 2.8x 2.7x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 156.0% 72.6% 46.7% 53.2% 64.7%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 230.7% 106.3% 67.9% 79.3% 95.3%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 226.7% 105.2% 67.0% 78.0% 93.6%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

125 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


CSL Limited (CSL AU)<br />

Sector: Health Care Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology Debt Service Cover (x) 4.9x<br />

Country: Australia<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 29.9%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 6.2x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

CSL Limited (CSL) is a global, specialty biopharmaceutical company that researches, develops,<br />

manufactures and markets products to treat and prevent serious human medical conditions. Its core<br />

business is to manufacture and supply human plasma products.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 30 Jun) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (A$ m) 479 1,155 1,232 1,350 1,699<br />

Gross Debt (A$ m) 416 1,272 1,241 637 568<br />

Interest Expense (A$ m) (14) (35) (46) (35) (22)<br />

EBIT (A$ m) 1,174 1,203 1,450 1,540 1,694<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 11.4% 37.1% 29.9% 13.0% 9.9%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 138.1% 206.5% 142.5% 212.6% 238.7%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.3x 0.6x 0.8x 0.5x 0.3x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 35.9x 4.3x 4.9x 1.7x 5.3x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 83.9x 34.9x 31.2x 44.3x 75.9x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (A$ m) 4,283 4,570 5,179 5,652 6,195<br />

% Change (YoY) (6.2%) 6.7% 13.3% 9.1% 9.6%<br />

EBITDA (A$ m) 1,340 1,374 1,635 1,745 1,917<br />

% of Sales 31.3% 30.1% 31.6% 30.9% 30.9%<br />

Net Income (A$ m) 941 983 1,178 1,265 1,401<br />

% of Sales 22.0% 21.5% 22.7% 22.4% 22.6%<br />

Free Cash Flow (A$ m) 806 849 566 1,244 987<br />

% of Sales 18.8% 18.6% 10.9% 22.0% 15.9%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 1,001 479 1,155 1,232 1,350<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 806 849 566 1,244 987<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 1,807 1,329 1,721 2,476 2,338<br />

Principal Repayments 18 232 230 804 269<br />

Interest Payments 14 35 46 35 22<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 32 267 277 838 292<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 55.9x 5.0x 6.2x 3.0x 8.0x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In A$ m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 1,155 58.3%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 5,662 285.6%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 6,818 343.9%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 448 22.6%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 7,265 366.5%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 1,983 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

126 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

6.0%<br />

94.0%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(A$ m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 19,983 27,070 27,070<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 1,272 1,241 637<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

40.0x<br />

90.0x<br />

35.0x<br />

80.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

70.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

60.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

60.0x 55.9x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

4.4%<br />

95.6%<br />

10.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

5.0x 6.2x<br />

3.0x<br />

2011A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Share Price (A$)<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

2.3%<br />

97.7%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

50.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

65<br />

55<br />

45<br />

35<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

25<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

CSL Limited<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (A$ m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 4,283 4,570 5,179 5,652 6,195<br />

Operating Expenses (2,943) (3,196) (3,544) (3,907) (4,278)<br />

EBITDA 1,340 1,374 1,635 1,745 1,917<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (166) (172) (185) (206) (224)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 1,174 1,203 1,450 1,540 1,694<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 14 2 14 30 54<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 10 12 15 17 18<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 1,198 1,217 1,478 1,586 1,766<br />

Taxes on Profit (258) (234) (300) (321) (365)<br />

Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 941 983 1,178 1,265 1,401<br />

Balance Sheet (A$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 1,048 1,062 1,216 1,308 1,363<br />

Long-term Investments 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Associates 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 915 853 853 853 851<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 2,306 2,422 2,534 2,606 2,659<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 2,283 2,242 2,780 2,809 3,233<br />

Total Current Assets 2,762 3,397 4,012 4,159 4,932<br />

Total Assets 5,068 5,819 6,546 6,765 7,591<br />

Shareholders' Equity 3,644 3,428 4,145 4,885 5,714<br />

Total Equity 3,644 3,428 4,145 4,885 5,714<br />

Long Term Debt 190 1,104 501 431 362<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 478 1,454 850 781 711<br />

Total Current Liabilities 946 937 1,551 1,099 1,166<br />

Total Liabilities 1,424 2,391 2,401 1,880 1,877<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 5,068 5,819 6,546 6,765 7,591<br />

Cash Flow Statement (A$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 1,198 1,217 1,478 1,586 1,766<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 166 172 185 206 224<br />

Tax Paid (289) (245) (280) (306) (344)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (126) (4) (517) 39 (379)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 1,018 1,160 866 1,524 1,267<br />

Capital Expenditure (212) (311) (300) (280) (280)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 0 0 3 3 3<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (210) (310) (297) (277) (277)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 31 825 (30) (604) (69)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net (883) (616) 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (436) (422) (461) (525) (572)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (1,289) (212) (492) (1,129) (642)<br />

Change in Cash (480) 638 77 118 349<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 31.3% 30.1% 31.6% 30.9% 30.9%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 27.4% 26.3% 28.0% 27.2% 27.3%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 22.0% 21.5% 22.7% 22.4% 22.6%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 23.9% 27.8% 31.1% 28.0% 26.4%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 22.3% 22.8% 24.4% 24.1% 24.7%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 23.6% 25.0% 27.5% 27.2% 28.4%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 11.4% 37.1% 29.9% 13.0% 9.9%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - 3.4% 0.2% - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 137.1% 153.9% 163.3% 147.4% 135.5%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 35.9x 4.3x 4.9x 1.7x 5.3x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 83.9x 34.9x 31.2x 44.3x 75.9x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 50.7% 123.2% 79.4% 122.8% 145.7%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 291.9% 362.4% 258.6% 378.3% 423.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 138.1% 206.5% 142.5% 212.6% 238.7%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

127 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


CSR Corporation Limited - H Share (1766 HK)<br />

Sector: Industrials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Capital Goods<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.4x<br />

Country: China<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 5.9%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.5x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

CSR Corporation Limited (CSR) is one of the largest rolling stock manufacturers and solutions providers<br />

in the world. The company occupies a greater than 50% market share in China’s locomotives and railcar<br />

industry. CSR and its subsidiaries are principally engaged in the research & development,<br />

manufacturing, sales and refurbishment of locomotives, passenger carriages, freight wagons, multiple<br />

units and metro cars.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (RMB m) 14,541 23,730 16,547 18,441 23,774<br />

Gross Debt (RMB m) 10,016 20,424 2,325 229 155<br />

Interest Expense (RMB m) (271) (931) (739) (83) (12)<br />

EBIT (RMB m) 3,198 5,119 6,039 6,970 7,690<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 42.0% 72.7% 5.9% 0.5% 0.3%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 75.9% 77.3% 84.3% 89.0% 97.5%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 1.7x 2.3x 1.5x 0.1x 0.0x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.5x 0.2x 0.4x 3.6x 102.2x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 11.8x 5.5x 8.2x 84.0x 615.4x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (RMB m) 64,132 79,517 89,816 100,335 108,976<br />

% Change (YoY) 40.6% 24.0% 13.0% 11.7% 8.6%<br />

EBITDA (RMB m) 4,483 6,656 7,814 9,030 9,917<br />

% of Sales 7.0% 8.4% 8.7% 9.0% 9.1%<br />

Net Income (RMB m) 2,526 3,864 4,677 5,875 6,580<br />

% of Sales 3.9% 4.9% 5.2% 5.9% 6.0%<br />

Free Cash Flow (RMB m) (1,372) 1,313 5,383 5,018 6,597<br />

% of Sales (2.1%) 1.7% 6.0% 5.0% 6.1%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 12,892 14,541 23,730 16,547 18,441<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (1,372) 1,313 5,383 5,018 6,597<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 11,520 15,853 29,113 21,566 25,038<br />

Principal Repayments 7,428 28,896 18,099 2,096 74<br />

Interest Payments 271 931 739 83 12<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 7,698 29,827 18,838 2,179 86<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.5x 0.5x 1.5x 9.9x 290.9x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In RMB m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 23,730 111.6%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 31,027 145.9%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 54,757 257.5%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 54,757 257.5%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 21,261 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(RMB m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 44,527 60,448 60,448<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 20,424 2,325 229<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

4.0x<br />

90.0x<br />

3.5x<br />

80.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

70.0x<br />

2.5x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

60.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

10.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

12.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

0.5x<br />

1.5x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EJ471610 Corp At Maturity Unsecured RMB 2,000.0 2,000.0 100.00 07-Dec-2012 03-Sep-2013 4.38% 1<br />

EI131616 Corp At Maturity Unsecured RMB 2,000.0 2,000.0 100.00 05-Feb-2010 05-Feb-2013 4.08% 1<br />

EJ353964 Corp At Maturity Unsecured RMB 2,000.0 2,000.0 100.00 17-Sep-2012 17-Sep-2015 4.54% 1<br />

128 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

31.4%<br />

68.6%<br />

3.7% 0.4%<br />

96.3%<br />

99.6%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

10.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

8.51<br />

7.51<br />

6.51<br />

5.51<br />

4.51<br />

9.9x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

3.51<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

CSR Corporation Limited - H Share


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (RMB m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 64,132 79,517 89,816 100,335 108,976<br />

Operating Expenses (59,649) (72,861) (82,002) (91,305) (99,059)<br />

EBITDA 4,483 6,656 7,814 9,030 9,917<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (1,285) (1,538) (1,775) (2,060) (2,227)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 3,198 5,119 6,039 6,970 7,690<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (226) (836) (500) 107 187<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 412 659 370 376 387<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 612 668 643 697 770<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 3,660 5,442 6,524 8,139 9,051<br />

Taxes on Profit (416) (699) (820) (1,060) (1,170)<br />

Minority Interests (718) (879) (1,027) (1,203) (1,300)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 2,526 3,864 4,677 5,875 6,580<br />

Balance Sheet (RMB m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 14,732 17,820 20,995 23,276 25,147<br />

Long-term Investments 26 271 271 271 271<br />

Associates 1,109 2,069 2,470 2,905 3,385<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 458 505 550 530 500<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 23,483 29,179 32,679 34,869 36,894<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 35,737 39,877 39,877 44,679 45,957<br />

Total Current Assets 50,278 63,607 56,425 63,120 69,731<br />

Total Assets 73,761 92,786 89,103 97,989 106,625<br />

Shareholders' Equity 19,268 22,562 33,509 38,449 43,854<br />

Total Equity 23,869 28,088 39,703 45,424 51,675<br />

Long Term Debt 4,204 2,325 229 155 82<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 7,077 5,514 3,417 3,344 3,270<br />

Total Current Liabilities 42,815 59,185 45,983 49,221 51,680<br />

Total Liabilities 49,892 64,698 49,401 52,565 54,950<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 73,761 92,786 89,103 97,989 106,625<br />

Cash Flow Statement (RMB m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 3,660 5,442 6,524 8,139 9,051<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 1,285 1,538 1,775 2,060 2,227<br />

Tax Paid (369) (568) (655) (858) (1,014)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (1,071) 130 2,554 182 977<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 3,721 6,941 10,383 9,018 10,597<br />

Capital Expenditure (5,093) (5,629) (5,000) (4,000) (4,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (1,043) 15,382 120 149 162<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (5,648) (7,543) (4,638) (3,589) (3,548)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 4,630 10,305 (18,099) (2,096) (74)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 8,755 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid 0 (474) (2,485) (935) (1,175)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 4,670 8,898 (12,927) (3,536) (1,716)<br />

Change in Cash 2,743 8,296 (7,183) 1,894 5,333<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 7.0% 8.4% 8.7% 9.0% 9.1%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 5.0% 6.4% 6.7% 6.9% 7.1%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 3.9% 4.9% 5.2% 5.9% 6.0%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 13.8% 18.5% 16.7% 16.3% 16.0%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 5.1% 6.3% 6.8% 7.6% 7.7%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 15.9% 19.1% 20.5% 22.8% 24.4%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 42.0% 72.7% 5.9% 0.5% 0.3%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 352.5% 398.2% 324.4% 260.0% 248.6%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.5x 0.2x 0.4x 3.6x 102.2x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 11.8x 5.5x 8.2x 84.0x 615.4x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 32.2% 39.0% 34.6% 36.2% 44.8%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 117.4% 107.5% 122.7% 128.2% 134.9%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 75.9% 77.3% 84.3% 89.0% 97.5%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

129 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Daewoo Engineering & Construction (047040 KS)<br />

Sector: Industrials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Capital Goods<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.5x<br />

Country: Korea<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 42.4%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.5x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Founded in 1973 in Korea, Daewoo Engineering & Construction Co., Ltd. (Daewoo) is one of the largest<br />

construction companies in South Korea. It was spun off by the (now-defunct) Daewoo Group in 2000 and<br />

later acquired by Korean Development Bank in 2010. Daewoo provides construction, engineering and<br />

architectural services for power, industrial, infrastructure, commercial, and residential projects in Korea<br />

and globally.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (KW m) 499,733 686,070 259,569 150,312 139,238<br />

Gross Debt (KW m) 2,329,001 1,683,032 1,520,218 1,620,218 1,685,218<br />

Interest Expense (KW m) (193,275) (155,806) (124,927) (122,477) (128,912)<br />

EBIT (KW m) (197,099) 341,681 433,679 478,345 533,252<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 71.5% 50.1% 42.4% 42.5% 41.3%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 172.7% 142.6% 164.2% 170.5% 179.8%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) - 5.2x 3.4x 3.0x 2.8x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) - 0.1x 0.5x 2.0x 1.8x<br />

Interest Cover (x) - 2.2x 3.5x 3.9x 4.1x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (KW m) 6,719,062 7,031,864 8,281,648 8,743,008 9,160,539<br />

% Change (YoY) (5.3%) 4.7% 17.8% 5.6% 4.8%<br />

EBITDA (KW m) (102,291) 383,800 476,927 531,820 589,001<br />

% of Sales (1.5%) 5.5% 5.8% 6.1% 6.4%<br />

Net Income (KW m) (813,601) 226,757 228,595 250,119 285,310<br />

% of Sales (12.1%) 3.2% 2.8% 2.9% 3.1%<br />

Free Cash Flow (KW m) (173,121) (62,903) (264,033) (171,656) (15,798)<br />

% of Sales (2.6%) (0.9%) (3.2%) (2.0%) (0.2%)<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 653,763 499,733 686,070 259,569 150,312<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (173,121) (62,903) (264,033) (171,656) (15,798)<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 480,642 436,830 422,037 87,914 134,514<br />

Principal Repayments 2,766,062 2,315,228 672,814 110,000 150,000<br />

Interest Payments 193,275 155,806 124,927 122,477 128,912<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 2,959,337 2,471,034 797,741 232,477 278,912<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.2x 0.2x 0.5x 0.4x 0.5x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In KW m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 686,070 34.4%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation (148,250) (7.4%)<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 537,820 26.9%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 537,820 26.9%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 1,995,784 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

28.1% 27.1% 27.8%<br />

71.9% 72.9% 72.2%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(KW m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 4,314,302 4,088,315 4,211,581<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 1,683,032 1,520,218 1,620,218<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

2.5x<br />

5<br />

4<br />

2.0x<br />

4<br />

3<br />

1.5x<br />

3<br />

1.0x<br />

2<br />

2<br />

0.5x<br />

1<br />

1<br />

0.0x<br />

0<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

0.6x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EJ240329 Corp At Maturity Senior Unsecured KW 150,000.0 150,000.0 100.00 26-Jul-2012 26-Jul-2017 4.11% 4<br />

EI719591 Corp At Maturity Senior Unsecured KW 150,000.0 150,000.0 100.00 27-Jun-2011 27-Jun-2014 5.20% 4<br />

EJ044523 Corp At Maturity Senior Unsecured KW 150,000.0 150,000.0 100.00 06-Mar-2012 06-Mar-2015 4.30% 4<br />

130 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (KW)<br />

0.5x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.3x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.1x<br />

14,868<br />

12,868<br />

10,868<br />

8,868<br />

0.2x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.4x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

6,868<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Daewoo Engineering & Construction


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (KW m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 6,719,062 7,031,864 8,281,648 8,743,008 9,160,539<br />

Operating Expenses (6,821,353) (6,648,064) (7,804,722) (8,211,189) (8,571,537)<br />

EBITDA (102,291) 383,800 476,927 531,820 589,001<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (94,808) (42,119) (43,247) (53,474) (55,750)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) (197,099) 341,681 433,679 478,345 533,252<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (142,435) (92,593) (71,717) (67,837) (71,848)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) (305,873) (46,259) (72,575) (79,232) (82,642)<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax (1,145,869) 260,213 301,577 329,972 376,398<br />

Taxes on Profit 332,268 (33,456) (72,982) (79,853) (91,088)<br />

Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) (813,601) 226,757 228,595 250,119 285,310<br />

Balance Sheet (KW m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 536,425 372,729 408,776 424,371 427,501<br />

Long-term Investments 847,703 895,713 837,183 796,833 771,546<br />

Associates 356,029 472,353 471,881 471,409 470,937<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 64,221 68,944 65,497 62,222 59,733<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 3,069,525 3,171,926 3,202,775 3,186,719 3,170,319<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 5,890,230 5,126,786 5,674,321 5,984,584 6,187,793<br />

Total Current Assets 6,389,963 5,812,856 5,933,891 6,134,896 6,327,031<br />

Total Assets 9,459,488 8,984,782 9,136,666 9,321,615 9,497,350<br />

Shareholders' Equity 3,255,130 3,360,445 3,589,040 3,816,299 4,076,597<br />

Total Equity 3,255,130 3,360,445 3,589,040 3,816,299 4,076,597<br />

Long Term Debt 1,558,326 802,024 1,202,024 1,262,024 1,282,024<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 2,759,650 2,047,089 2,412,641 2,416,158 2,424,505<br />

Total Current Liabilities 3,444,708 3,577,248 3,134,985 3,089,157 2,996,248<br />

Total Liabilities 6,204,358 5,624,337 5,547,625 5,505,315 5,420,753<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 9,459,488 8,984,782 9,136,666 9,321,615 9,497,350<br />

Cash Flow Statement (KW m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) (1,145,869) 260,213 301,577 329,972 376,398<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 94,808 42,119 43,247 53,474 55,750<br />

Tax Paid 52,685 1,157 (71,900) (77,467) (87,002)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (161,586) (439,111) (562,690) (513,776) (412,620)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations (132,938) 30,737 (179,033) (96,656) 49,202<br />

Capital Expenditure (40,183) (93,640) (85,000) (75,000) (65,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (120,221) 1,233,171 73,084 53,834 37,047<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (379,252) 1,010,466 41,294 33,474 29,111<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (466,642) (700,424) (162,814) 100,000 65,000<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 1,008,511 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (16,002) 0 0 (22,860) (25,012)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 332,592 (856,321) (287,741) (45,337) (88,924)<br />

Change in Cash (179,598) 184,882 (425,480) (108,518) (10,611)<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) (1.5%) 5.5% 5.8% 6.1% 6.4%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) (2.9%) 4.9% 5.2% 5.5% 5.8%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) (12.1%) 3.2% 2.8% 2.9% 3.1%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) (25.8%) 6.9% 6.6% 6.8% 7.2%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) (1.6%) 4.4% 5.4% 5.8% 6.3%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) (4.4%) 6.4% 7.3% 7.3% 7.6%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 71.5% 50.1% 42.4% 42.5% 41.3%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 57.4% 30.9% 36.2% 39.5% 38.9%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 290.0% 278.8% 260.8% 249.3% 238.4%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) - 0.1x 0.5x 2.0x 1.8x<br />

Interest Cover (x) - 2.2x 3.5x 3.9x 4.1x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 13.4% 18.0% 7.0% 3.6% 3.4%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 185.5% 162.5% 189.3% 198.6% 211.2%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 172.7% 142.6% 164.2% 170.5% 179.8%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

131 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering (042660 KS)<br />

Sector: Industrials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Capital Goods<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.0x<br />

Country: Korea<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 71.6%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 2.3x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Daewoo Shipbuilding and Marine Engineering Co. Ltd is one of the largest shipbuilders in the world.<br />

Established in 1978 as the shipbuilding and marine engineering division of Daewoo Shipbuilding &<br />

Heavy Machinery Co., Ltd (DSHM), the company sailed off from its former parent in 2000. The company<br />

operates as a shipbuilder and offshore contractor that builds and repairs commercial vessels, offshore<br />

platforms, drilling rigs, floating oil production units and naval vessels, such as submarines and<br />

destroyers, for clients spread across the globe. Its key customers now include large oil companies, such<br />

as BP and Shell.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (KW b) 682 618 754 562 1,320<br />

Gross Debt (KW b) 2,923 4,407 3,466 3,316 3,066<br />

Interest Expense (KW b) (149) (188) (177) (167) (159)<br />

EBIT (KW b) 1,198 1,086 632 868 858<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 72.6% 97.9% 71.6% 61.1% 51.1%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 79.8% 72.1% 75.9% 76.6% 83.1%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 2.1x 2.8x 4.3x 3.0x 2.9x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 2.4x 2.5x 1.0x 2.6x 2.6x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 8.0x 5.8x 3.6x 5.2x 5.4x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (KW b) 12,989 13,903 13,610 15,753 15,393<br />

% Change (YoY) - 7.0% (2.1%) 15.8% (2.3%)<br />

EBITDA (KW b) 1,408 1,316 920 1,140 1,116<br />

% of Sales 10.8% 9.5% 6.8% 7.2% 7.3%<br />

Net Income (KW b) 767 686 447 679 700<br />

% of Sales 5.9% 4.9% 3.3% 4.3% 4.5%<br />

Free Cash Flow (KW b) (514) (450) 1,172 21 1,104<br />

% of Sales (4.0%) (3.2%) 8.6% 0.1% 7.2%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 1,149 682 618 754 562<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (514) (450) 1,172 21 1,104<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 635 231 1,790 775 1,666<br />

Principal Repayments 334 213 587 201 201<br />

Interest Payments 149 188 177 167 159<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 483 402 764 368 359<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.3x 0.6x 2.3x 2.1x 4.6x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In KW b)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 618 30.8%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 3,266 162.7%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 3,885 193.5%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 3,885 193.5%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 2,008 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

132 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

48.7%<br />

51.3%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(KW b) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 4,651 5,196 5,445<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 4,407 3,466 3,316<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

2.5x<br />

40.0%<br />

60.0%<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

37.8%<br />

62.2%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

3.0x<br />

9.0x<br />

2.5x<br />

8.0x<br />

7.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

5.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (KW)<br />

2.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

43,020<br />

38,020<br />

33,020<br />

28,020<br />

23,020<br />

1.3x<br />

0.6x<br />

2.3x<br />

2.1x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

18,020<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (KW b) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 12,989 13,903 13,610 15,753 15,393<br />

Operating Expenses (11,614) (12,624) (12,712) (14,641) (14,307)<br />

EBITDA 1,408 1,316 920 1,140 1,116<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (210) (230) (288) (273) (258)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 1,198 1,086 632 868 858<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (49) 17 (35) (36) 0<br />

Other Income/(Expense) (109) (52) 1 1 1<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits (5) (71) (1) 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 1,040 998 561 853 880<br />

Taxes on Profit (264) (349) (136) (206) (213)<br />

Minority Interests (9) 38 21 32 33<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 767 686 447 679 700<br />

Balance Sheet (KW b)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 4,745 5,782 5,511 5,255 5,015<br />

Long-term Investments 244 208 206 204 201<br />

Associates 103 19 20 22 24<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 145 123 133 143 153<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 7,719 9,042 8,919 8,959 9,018<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 7,421 7,000 6,760 7,263 7,233<br />

Total Current Assets 8,103 7,618 7,515 7,825 8,553<br />

Total Assets 15,823 16,660 16,434 16,784 17,572<br />

Shareholders' Equity 4,077 4,582 4,939 5,561 6,172<br />

Total Equity 4,027 4,502 4,838 5,428 6,005<br />

Long Term Debt 1,660 1,601 1,501 1,301 1,101<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 2,559 2,638 2,489 2,326 2,163<br />

Total Current Liabilities 9,236 9,520 9,107 9,030 9,403<br />

Total Liabilities 11,796 12,158 11,596 11,356 11,567<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 15,823 16,660 16,434 16,784 17,572<br />

Cash Flow Statement (KW b)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 1,040 998 561 853 880<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 210 230 288 273 258<br />

Tax Paid (164) (229) (135) (167) (188)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (1,544) (1,531) 586 (819) 267<br />

Cash Flow from Operations (210) 2 1,372 221 1,304<br />

Capital Expenditure (304) (453) (200) (200) (200)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 199 131 111 110 108<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (549) (854) (259) (191) (165)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 530 651 (286) 100 (100)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (95) (96) (95) (62) (94)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 357 538 (1,026) (203) (335)<br />

Change in Cash (402) (314) 86 (174) 803<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 10.8% 9.5% 6.8% 7.2% 7.3%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 9.2% 7.8% 4.6% 5.5% 5.6%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 5.9% 4.9% 3.3% 4.3% 4.5%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 18.8% 15.9% 9.4% 12.9% 11.9%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 8.1% 7.5% 4.6% 5.9% 5.9%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 13.1% 8.9% 5.5% 7.6% 7.4%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 72.6% 97.9% 71.6% 61.1% 51.1%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 57.3% 85.9% 57.8% 52.5% 30.8%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 388.1% 375.2% 347.6% 316.4% 292.8%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 2.4x 2.5x 1.0x 2.6x 2.6x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 8.0x 5.8x 3.6x 5.2x 5.4x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 6.7% 5.7% 7.3% 5.2% 12.9%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 87.7% 80.0% 82.5% 86.7% 91.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 79.8% 72.1% 75.9% 76.6% 83.1%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

133 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Dairy Farm International Holdings Ltd. (DFI SP)<br />

Sector: Consumer Staples Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Food & Staples Retailing<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 8.1x<br />

Country: Singapore<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 16.7%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 14.7x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Dairy Farm International Holdings Limited a member of the Jardine Matheson Group and has its primary<br />

share listing in London, with secondary listings in Bermuda and Singapore. Dairy Farm is a leading pan-<br />

Asian retailer. The Group operates supermarkets, hypermarkets, health and beauty stores, convenience<br />

stores, home furnishings stores and restaurants under well-known local brands. The Group has a 50%<br />

interest in Maxim’s, Hong Kong’s leading restaurant chain. It has strong presence in Hong Kong,<br />

Indonesia, Mainland China, Malaysia, Singapore and Taiwan.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (US$ m) 682 730 837 998 1,253<br />

Gross Debt (US$ m) 458 264 197 130 130<br />

Interest Expense (US$ m) (26) (21) (14) (10) (8)<br />

EBIT (US$ m) 470 527 592 635 716<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 62.4% 28.3% 16.7% 9.0% 7.4%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 40.8% 42.2% 46.2% 48.2% 56.4%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.8x 0.5x 0.3x 0.2x 0.1x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.3x 0.4x 8.1x 9.0x 115.4x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 18.4x 24.3x 42.8x 64.7x 91.6x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (US$ m) 7,971 9,134 9,874 10,774 11,788<br />

% Change (YoY) 13.4% 14.6% 8.1% 9.1% 9.4%<br />

EBITDA (US$ m) 638 709 774 820 901<br />

% of Sales 8.0% 7.8% 7.8% 7.6% 7.6%<br />

Net Income (US$ m) 411 484 530 584 665<br />

% of Sales 5.2% 5.3% 5.4% 5.4% 5.6%<br />

Free Cash Flow (US$ m) 453 498 451 532 596<br />

% of Sales 5.7% 5.5% 4.6% 4.9% 5.1%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 533 682 730 837 998<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 453 498 451 532 596<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 986 1,180 1,181 1,369 1,593<br />

Principal Repayments 1,556 1,493 67 67 0<br />

Interest Payments 26 22 14 10 8<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 1,581 1,514 81 77 8<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.6x 0.8x 14.7x 17.9x 204.0x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In US$ m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 730 404.3%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 2,956 1,638.2%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 3,686 2,042.6%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 968 536.5%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 4,654 2,579.0%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 180 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

134 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

2.0%<br />

98.0%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

1.3%<br />

98.7%<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(US$ m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 12,597 14,717 14,785<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 264 197 130<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

20.0x<br />

18.0x<br />

17.9x<br />

16.0x<br />

14.0x<br />

12.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

14.7x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.6x 0.8x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

0.9%<br />

99.1%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

10.0x<br />

70.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

60.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (US$)<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

13.84<br />

12.84<br />

11.84<br />

10.84<br />

9.84<br />

8.84<br />

7.84<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Dairy Farm International Holdings Ltd.<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (US$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 7,971 9,134 9,874 10,774 11,788<br />

Operating Expenses (7,454) (8,559) (9,247) (10,115) (11,064)<br />

EBITDA 638 709 774 820 901<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (167) (181) (182) (185) (186)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 470 527 592 635 716<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (21) (16) (10) (5) (2)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) (7) 12 0 0 0<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 47 66 64 80 96<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 494 584 646 710 810<br />

Taxes on Profit (84) (99) (115) (126) (144)<br />

Minority Interests 1 0 0 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 411 484 530 584 665<br />

Balance Sheet (US$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 921 896 956 994 1,036<br />

Long-term Investments 3 4 4 4 4<br />

Associates 161 194 219 252 291<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 344 352 383 418 449<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 1,598 1,594 1,717 1,827 1,946<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 978 1,215 1,223 1,406 1,436<br />

Total Current Assets 1,659 1,945 2,060 2,404 2,688<br />

Total Assets 3,258 3,539 3,777 4,230 4,634<br />

Shareholders' Equity 733 923 1,162 1,426 1,736<br />

Total Equity 734 930 1,177 1,450 1,768<br />

Long Term Debt 338 133 67 0 0<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 458 252 186 121 121<br />

Total Current Liabilities 2,065 2,357 2,415 2,660 2,745<br />

Total Liabilities 2,524 2,609 2,600 2,781 2,866<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 3,258 3,539 3,777 4,230 4,634<br />

Cash Flow Statement (US$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 494 584 646 710 810<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 167 181 182 185 186<br />

Tax Paid (74) (88) (102) (114) (130)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 101 73 31 49 34<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 677 730 731 797 861<br />

Capital Expenditure (224) (232) (280) (265) (265)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (14) 1 7 7 7<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (238) (242) (273) (258) (258)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (75) (199) (67) (67) 0<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 8 2 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (223) (257) (291) (319) (355)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (289) (447) (350) (378) (348)<br />

Change in Cash 149 41 108 161 255<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 8.0% 7.8% 7.8% 7.6% 7.6%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 5.9% 5.8% 6.0% 5.9% 6.1%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 5.2% 5.3% 5.4% 5.4% 5.6%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 65.4% 58.5% 50.9% 45.1% 42.1%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 15.6% 15.6% 16.3% 16.0% 16.3%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 85.0% 102.7% 119.0% 119.0% 128.2%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 62.4% 28.3% 16.7% 9.0% 7.4%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 481.7% 410.5% 351.0% 309.4% 280.3%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.3x 0.4x 8.1x 9.0x 115.4x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 18.4x 24.3x 42.8x 64.7x 91.6x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 33.0% 31.0% 34.7% 37.5% 45.6%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 80.4% 82.5% 85.3% 90.4% 97.9%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 40.8% 42.2% 46.2% 48.2% 56.4%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

135 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Datang International Power – H Share (991 HK)<br />

Sector: Utilities Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Utilities<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.3x<br />

Country: China<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 357.8%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.1x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Datang International Power Generation Co., Ltd., (“Datang Power”) is one of the largest independent<br />

power producers in China. The main business of the company includes construction and operation of<br />

power plants, sale of electricity & steam, sale of coal, transportation services, sale of chemical products<br />

and sale of materials & equipment. As on December 31, 2011, the total installed capacity of the<br />

Company and its subsidiaries stood at 38.5 GW, of which coal-fired plants accounted for 84.1%,<br />

hydropower plants 12.5%, wind power plants 3.3% and Photovoltaic Power Plants accounted for the<br />

balance 0.1%.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (RMB '000) 3,442,976 4,467,372 4,661,404 4,251,922 4,837,281<br />

Gross Debt (RMB '000) 153,442,588 170,967,527 188,967,782 207,715,626 223,172,135<br />

Interest Expense (RMB '000) (7,237,519) (9,001,178) (10,942,904) (11,838,922) (12,489,606)<br />

EBIT (RMB '000) 9,203,695 9,553,163 12,920,391 15,221,595 17,274,508<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 399.2% 337.0% 357.8% 371.2% 374.3%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 29.3% 37.8% 34.7% 33.9% 33.6%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 8.7x 8.9x 8.2x 7.9x 7.7x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.2x 0.2x 0.3x 0.3x 0.3x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 1.3x 1.1x 1.2x 1.3x 1.4x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (RMB '000) 60,672,375 72,381,865 77,552,547 87,007,930 93,172,159<br />

% Change (YoY) 26.6% 19.3% 7.1% 12.2% 7.1%<br />

EBITDA (RMB '000) 16,610,661 18,187,435 21,962,358 25,116,109 27,855,277<br />

% of Sales 27.4% 25.1% 28.3% 28.9% 29.9%<br />

Net Income (RMB '000) 2,569,734 1,971,200 3,196,726 4,332,334 5,066,240<br />

% of Sales 4.2% 2.7% 4.1% 5.0% 5.4%<br />

Free Cash Flow (RMB '000) (5,334,622) (13,118,445) (957,039) (825,313) 4,646,496<br />

% of Sales (8.8%) (18.1%) (1.2%) (0.9%) 5.0%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 1,506,435 3,442,976 4,467,372 4,661,404 4,251,922<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (5,334,622) (13,118,445) (957,039) (825,313) 4,646,496<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) (3,828,187) (9,675,469) 3,510,333 3,836,091 8,898,419<br />

Principal Repayments 63,252,131 56,315,039 57,499,745 62,752,156 64,073,116<br />

Interest Payments 7,237,519 9,001,178 10,942,904 11,838,922 12,489,606<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 70,489,650 65,316,217 68,442,649 74,591,078 76,562,722<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) (0.1x) (0.1x) 0.1x 0.1x 0.1x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In RMB '000)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 4,467,372 1.2%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 27,167,739 7.1%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 31,635,111 8.3%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 145,350,000 38.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 176,985,111 46.2%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 382,674,526 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(RMB '000) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 54,886,576 43,592,949 43,592,949<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EI649017 Corp At Maturity Company Guarantee RMB 3,000.0 3,000.0 100.00 20-Apr-2011 20-Apr-2021 5.25% 1<br />

EH940780 Corp At Maturity Unsecured RMB 3,000.0 3,000.0 100.00 17-Aug-2009 17-Aug-2019 5.00% 1<br />

EH734245 Corp At Maturity Unsecured RMB 3,000.0 3,000.0 100.00 03-Mar-2009 03-Mar-2014 4.10% 1<br />

136 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt<br />

75.7%<br />

24.3%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

0.1x<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

81.3% 82.7%<br />

18.7% 17.3%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

170,967,52<br />

7<br />

188,967,78<br />

2<br />

207,715,62<br />

6<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

0.3x<br />

1.4x<br />

0.3x<br />

1.2x<br />

0.2x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.8x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.6x<br />

0.1x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.1x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

0.1x<br />

0.0x<br />

(0.1x)<br />

(0.1x)<br />

(0.2x)<br />

(0.2x)<br />

3.59<br />

3.09<br />

2.59<br />

(0.1x)<br />

(0.1x)<br />

0.1x 0.1x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

2.09<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Datang International Power – H Share


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (RMB '000) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 60,672,375 72,381,865 77,552,547 87,007,930 93,172,159<br />

Operating Expenses (44,061,714) (54,194,430) (55,590,189 (61,891,82 (65,316,882)<br />

EBITDA 16,610,661 18,187,435 21,962,358 25,116,109 27,855,277<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (7,406,966) (8,634,272) (9,041,967) (9,894,514) (10,580,770)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 9,203,695 9,553,163 12,920,391 15,221,595 17,274,508<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (5,341,141) (6,968,400) (8,446,984) (9,088,554) (10,051,951)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 16,388 84,648 480,603 583,019 641,321<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 719,335 1,040,199 1,103,377 1,437,446 1,728,409<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 4,700,300 3,709,935 6,057,386 8,153,506 9,592,287<br />

Taxes on Profit (871,355) (667,786) (1,139,347) (1,488,376) (1,798,072)<br />

Minority Interests (1,259,211) (1,070,949) (1,721,314) (2,332,795) (2,727,975)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 2,569,734 1,971,200 3,196,726 4,332,334 5,066,240<br />

Balance Sheet (RMB '000)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 122,356,194 129,790,966 137,788,22 146,742,31 155,652,406<br />

Long-term Investments 2,304,158 2,710,073 2,810,073 2,910,073 3,010,073<br />

Associates 7,241,616 8,875,033 13,356,829 18,126,772 23,138,362<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 2,498,329 2,644,303 2,663,991 2,683,130 2,701,718<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 193,023,506 217,623,601 237,908,93 260,424,78 279,139,710<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 16,448,853 25,606,216 25,015,048 26,680,412 26,261,920<br />

Total Current Assets 19,891,829 30,073,588 29,676,452 30,932,334 31,099,201<br />

Total Assets 212,915,335 247,697,189 267,585,38 291,357,11 310,238,911<br />

Shareholders' Equity 30,850,071 38,940,692 40,673,314 43,407,285 46,653,944<br />

Total Equity 38,432,831 50,732,054 52,808,939 55,962,813 59,618,669<br />

Long Term Debt 119,257,577 132,418,901 145,166,74 162,593,62 175,436,045<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 120,199,395 133,550,140 146,297,98 163,724,86 176,567,284<br />

Total Current Liabilities 54,283,109 63,414,995 68,478,463 71,669,434 74,052,959<br />

Total Liabilities 174,482,504 196,965,135 214,776,44 235,394,30 250,620,243<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 212,915,335 247,697,189 267,585,38 291,357,11 310,238,911<br />

Cash Flow Statement (RMB '000)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 4,700,300 3,709,935 6,057,386 8,153,506 9,592,287<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 7,406,966 8,634,272 9,041,967 9,894,514 10,580,770<br />

Tax Paid (881,439) (1,279,484) (1,126,344) (1,483,841) (1,815,526)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 1,914,142 (4,083,014) 214,222 (99,888) (94,622)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 17,509,589 12,934,714 21,642,961 24,224,687 26,696,496<br />

Capital Expenditure (22,844,211) (26,053,159) (22,600,000 (25,050,00 (22,050,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (1,604,302) (2,463,369) (3,688,056) (3,649,338) (3,606,501)<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (24,749,501) (28,644,524) (25,536,956 (27,906,46 (24,812,027)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 15,196,203 15,298,704 18,000,255 18,747,844 18,426,884<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 3,248,372 6,670,950 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (1,804,229) (1,998,916) (2,841,155) (3,511,255) (4,138,359)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 9,192,765 16,817,988 4,216,196 3,397,667 (1,171,456)<br />

Change in Cash 1,952,853 1,108,178 322,201 (284,113) 713,013<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 27.4% 25.1% 28.3% 28.9% 29.9%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 15.2% 13.2% 16.7% 17.5% 18.5%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 4.2% 2.7% 4.1% 5.0% 5.4%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 9.0% 5.6% 8.0% 10.3% 11.3%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 4.7% 4.2% 5.1% 5.5% 5.8%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 4.4% 4.1% 4.9% 5.4% 5.7%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 399.2% 337.0% 357.8% 371.2% 374.3%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 390.3% 328.2% 349.0% 363.6% 366.2%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 696.9% 660.0% 647.2% 664.8% 668.0%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.2x 0.2x 0.3x 0.3x 0.3x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 1.3x 1.1x 1.2x 1.3x 1.4x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 6.3% 7.0% 6.8% 5.9% 6.5%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 36.6% 47.4% 43.3% 43.2% 42.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 29.3% 37.8% 34.7% 33.9% 33.6%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

137 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Delta Electronics Inc. (2308 TT)<br />

Sector: Information Technology Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Technology Hardware & Equipment Debt Service Cover (x) 13.9x<br />

Country: Taiwan<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 42.0%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 56.0x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Delta Electronics Inc. is one of the leading companies in switching power supplies. It supplies switching<br />

power supplies, telecom power systems, uninterrupted power supply (UPS), variable speed alternating<br />

current (AC), motor drives, magnetic and components network, high resolution color monitors, projectors<br />

etc. It holds a leading position in the fields of automation, networking, and renewable energy. The<br />

company also provides clean and energy efficient solutions through its subsidiary "Delsolar" which<br />

operates in solar cells, modules and PV systems.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (NT$ m) 61,026 68,308 76,947 85,433 87,643<br />

Gross Debt (NT$ m) 19,528 43,320 42,462 46,246 38,031<br />

Interest Expense (NT$ m) (219) (398) (643) (665) (632)<br />

EBIT (NT$ m) 17,269 10,318 15,312 17,389 19,686<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 22.3% 46.8% 42.0% 43.5% 33.6%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 169.1% 161.3% 159.6% 161.6% 159.4%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.8x 1.9x 1.9x 1.7x 1.5x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 8.0x 31.5x 13.9x 3.1x 2.7x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 78.9x 25.9x 23.8x 26.1x 31.1x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (NT$ m) 171,302 172,056 177,177 186,760 201,063<br />

% Change (YoY) 38.0% 0.4% 3.0% 5.4% 7.7%<br />

EBITDA (NT$ m) 22,660 16,829 23,039 25,418 28,203<br />

% of Sales 13.2% 9.8% 13.0% 13.6% 14.0%<br />

Net Income (NT$ m) 15,754 10,991 15,865 15,930 17,726<br />

% of Sales 9.2% 6.4% 9.0% 8.5% 8.8%<br />

Free Cash Flow (NT$ m) 13,114 3,943 15,747 13,962 19,428<br />

% of Sales 7.7% 2.3% 8.9% 7.5% 9.7%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 58,179 61,026 68,308 76,947 85,433<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 13,114 3,943 15,747 13,962 19,428<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 71,293 64,969 84,056 90,909 104,860<br />

Principal Repayments 2,307 111 858 6,216 8,216<br />

Interest Payments 219 398 643 665 632<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 2,526 508 1,501 6,881 8,848<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 28.2x 127.8x 56.0x 13.2x 11.9x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In NT$ m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 68,308 197.7%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 92,770 268.5%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 161,078 466.1%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 113,088 327.3%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 274,166 793.4%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 34,555 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

138 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

20.0%<br />

80.0%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(NT$ m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 173,045 255,962 255,962<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 43,320 42,462 46,246<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

35.0x<br />

90.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

80.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

70.0x<br />

60.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

140.0x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

120.0x<br />

100.0x<br />

14.2% 15.3%<br />

85.8% 84.7%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

80.0x<br />

60.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

28.2x<br />

127.8x<br />

56.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Share Price (NT$)<br />

141<br />

121<br />

101<br />

81<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

13.2x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

61<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Delta Electronics Inc.<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (NT$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 171,302 172,056 177,177 186,760 201,063<br />

Operating Expenses (148,642) (155,227) (154,137) (161,342) (172,860)<br />

EBITDA 22,660 16,829 23,039 25,418 28,203<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (5,391) (6,511) (7,728) (8,029) (8,517)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 17,269 10,318 15,312 17,389 19,686<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 349 508 365 302 227<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 1,933 3,262 4,156 2,562 2,669<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 871 508 615 640 667<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 20,146 14,585 20,447 20,893 23,248<br />

Taxes on Profit (2,271) (2,826) (3,176) (3,552) (3,952)<br />

Minority Interests (2,128) (974) (1,405) (1,411) (1,570)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 8 206 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 15,754 10,991 15,865 15,930 17,726<br />

Balance Sheet (NT$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 23,585 30,318 36,377 37,873 37,640<br />

Long-term Investments 4,318 6,218 8,000 8,086 8,174<br />

Associates 6,327 5,912 6,156 6,410 6,675<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 9,030 12,097 10,716 9,714 8,986<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 48,496 63,186 67,608 67,049 65,675<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 52,216 61,699 56,963 61,839 62,692<br />

Total Current Assets 113,243 130,008 133,910 147,271 150,335<br />

Total Assets 161,738 193,194 201,518 214,320 216,010<br />

Shareholders' Equity 75,831 77,821 85,289 89,320 95,098<br />

Total Equity 87,392 92,486 101,078 106,238 113,272<br />

Long Term Debt 9,540 24,862 18,647 20,431 12,216<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 16,112 31,956 25,740 27,524 19,309<br />

Total Current Liabilities 58,235 68,753 74,700 80,558 83,429<br />

Total Liabilities 74,346 100,708 100,440 108,083 102,738<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 161,738 193,194 201,518 214,320 216,010<br />

Cash Flow Statement (NT$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 20,146 14,585 20,447 20,893 23,248<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 5,391 6,511 7,728 8,029 8,517<br />

Tax Paid (1,325) (2,893) (3,161) (3,396) (3,730)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (1,982) (1,491) 5,207 (1,015) 1,816<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 22,007 18,073 28,297 24,012 29,478<br />

Capital Expenditure (8,892) (14,130) (12,550) (10,050) (10,050)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 434 (6,360) 2,427 2,921 3,260<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (9,003) (21,890) (10,123) (7,129) (6,791)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 4,369 21,249 (858) 3,784 (8,216)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 1,076 597 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (10,013) (14,789) (8,678) (12,181) (12,261)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (4,569) 7,077 (9,536) (8,397) (20,477)<br />

Change in Cash 8,435 3,259 8,639 8,486 2,210<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 13.2% 9.8% 13.0% 13.6% 14.0%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 10.1% 6.0% 8.6% 9.3% 9.8%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 9.2% 6.4% 9.0% 8.5% 8.8%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 22.6% 14.3% 19.5% 18.2% 19.2%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 12.1% 6.3% 8.3% 8.8% 9.5%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 44.2% 16.0% 21.2% 24.2% 28.3%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 22.3% 46.8% 42.0% 43.5% 33.6%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 212.5% 231.0% 242.0% 238.2% 233.3%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 8.0x 31.5x 13.9x 3.1x 2.7x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 78.9x 25.9x 23.8x 26.1x 31.1x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 103.8% 98.5% 102.2% 105.3% 104.3%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 194.5% 189.1% 179.3% 182.8% 180.2%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 169.1% 161.3% 159.6% 161.6% 159.4%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

139 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Digi.Com Berhad (DIGI MK)<br />

Sector: Telecommunication Services Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Telecommunication Services Debt Service Cover (x) 12.7x<br />

Country: Malaysia<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 278.4%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 15.0x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

DiGi.Com Berhad is the ultimate holding company of DiGi Telecommunications Sdn. Bhd., which is<br />

engaged in the business of establishment, maintenance and provision of telecommunications and<br />

related services in Malaysia. DiGi Telecommunications Sdn. Bhd. commenced operations in 1995 when<br />

it launched its fully digital GSM services, the first digital mobile communications service in Malaysia. DiGi<br />

is a leader in prepaid services and offers customized services under the DiGi prepaid brand name. Its<br />

postpaid services under DiGi postpaid and DiGi business deliver voice and value-added mobile content<br />

and data services to individual and corporate customers. The company launched its 14.4 Mbps<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (RM '000) 850,584 1,098,170 942,056 1,162,168 957,970<br />

Gross Debt (RM '000) 1,076,863 728,009 1,078,031 887,740 491,658<br />

Interest Expense (RM '000) (47,049) (68,936) (49,666) (54,059) (37,933)<br />

EBIT (RM '000) 1,595,816 1,581,783 1,705,894 2,219,462 2,333,492<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 80.0% 51.6% 278.4% 167.1% 87.7%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 56.7% 60.0% 54.7% 58.1% 55.1%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.4x 0.3x 0.3x 0.3x 0.2x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 9.5x 3.7x 12.7x 10.4x 5.8x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 33.9x 22.9x 34.3x 41.1x 61.5x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (RM '000) 5,406,457 5,963,954 6,275,899 6,517,775 6,664,390<br />

% Change (YoY) 10.1% 10.3% 5.2% 3.9% 2.2%<br />

EBITDA (RM '000) 2,369,179 2,749,352 3,014,568 3,134,687 3,200,478<br />

% of Sales 43.8% 46.1% 48.0% 48.1% 48.0%<br />

Net Income (RM '000) 1,178,004 1,254,384 1,373,544 1,726,593 1,824,658<br />

% of Sales 21.8% 21.0% 21.9% 26.5% 27.4%<br />

Free Cash Flow (RM '000) 1,714,555 1,832,451 1,899,339 2,003,717 1,981,363<br />

% of Sales 31.7% 30.7% 30.3% 30.7% 29.7%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 440,699 850,584 1,098,170 942,056 1,162,168<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 1,714,555 1,832,451 1,899,339 2,003,717 1,981,363<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 2,155,254 2,683,035 2,997,509 2,945,773 3,143,531<br />

Principal Repayments 150,000 550,000 149,978 190,291 396,082<br />

Interest Payments 47,049 68,936 49,666 54,059 37,933<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 197,049 618,936 199,644 244,350 434,015<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 10.9x 4.3x 15.0x 12.1x 7.2x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In RM '000)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 1,098,170 86.2%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 10,185,832 799.3%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 11,284,002 885.5%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 11,284,002 885.5%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 1,274,348 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

140 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

2.4% 2.6%<br />

97.6% 97.4%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(RM '000) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 30,167,000 41,129,750 40,430,000<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 728,009 1,078,031 887,740<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

14.0x<br />

45.0x<br />

12.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

35.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

16.0x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Share Price (RM)<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

2.1%<br />

97.9%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

14.0x<br />

12.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

10.9x<br />

4.3x<br />

15.0x<br />

12.1x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

6.71<br />

6.21<br />

5.71<br />

5.21<br />

4.71<br />

4.21<br />

3.71<br />

3.21<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Digi.Com Berhad<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (RM '000) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 5,406,457 5,963,954 6,275,899 6,517,775 6,664,390<br />

Operating Expenses (3,037,278) (3,214,602) (3,261,331) (3,383,088) (3,463,912)<br />

EBITDA 2,369,179 2,749,352 3,014,568 3,134,687 3,200,478<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (773,363) (1,167,569) (1,308,674) (915,225) (866,985)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 1,595,816 1,581,783 1,705,894 2,219,462 2,333,492<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (32,570) (34,183) (8,862) (11,974) 4,469<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 34,299 18,404 27,693 27,970 28,249<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 1,597,248 1,560,262 1,724,725 2,235,458 2,366,211<br />

Taxes on Profit (419,244) (305,878) (351,181) (508,864) (541,553)<br />

Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 1,178,004 1,254,384 1,373,544 1,726,593 1,824,658<br />

Balance Sheet (RM '000)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 2,806,548 2,216,576 1,833,331 1,723,530 1,630,483<br />

Long-term Investments 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Associates 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 845,957 731,881 640,396 560,346 490,303<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 3,805,851 3,240,514 2,680,678 2,464,232 2,295,956<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 480,198 524,662 566,004 613,618 653,915<br />

Total Current Assets 1,330,782 1,622,832 1,508,060 1,775,786 1,611,885<br />

Total Assets 5,136,633 4,863,346 4,188,738 4,240,018 3,907,841<br />

Shareholders' Equity 1,346,622 1,411,431 387,200 531,231 560,650<br />

Total Equity 1,346,622 1,411,431 387,200 531,231 560,650<br />

Long Term Debt 1,076,863 578,031 887,740 491,658 270,048<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 1,518,422 858,658 1,168,301 772,172 550,528<br />

Total Current Liabilities 2,271,589 2,593,257 2,633,237 2,936,615 2,796,663<br />

Total Liabilities 3,790,011 3,451,915 3,801,538 3,708,787 3,347,191<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 5,136,633 4,863,346 4,188,738 4,240,018 3,907,841<br />

Cash Flow Statement (RM '000)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 1,597,248 1,560,262 1,724,725 2,235,458 2,366,211<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 773,363 1,167,569 1,308,674 915,225 866,985<br />

Tax Paid (442,660) (445,133) (399,483) (503,395) (539,645)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 368,618 22,344 (54,015) (5,328) (53,029)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 2,356,821 2,436,322 2,649,339 2,703,717 2,681,363<br />

Capital Expenditure (642,266) (603,871) (750,000) (700,000) (700,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 10,968 1,239 1,162 1,222 1,291<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (611,836) (573,938) (708,034) (656,693) (656,307)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 75,313 (356,287) 350,022 (190,291) (396,082)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (1,352,850) (1,189,575) (2,397,775) (1,582,563) (1,795,239)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (1,324,586) (1,614,798) (2,097,419) (1,826,912) (2,229,254)<br />

Change in Cash 420,399 247,586 (156,114) 220,112 (204,198)<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 43.8% 46.1% 48.0% 48.1% 48.0%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 29.5% 26.5% 27.2% 34.1% 35.0%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 21.8% 21.0% 21.9% 26.5% 27.4%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 82.1% 91.0% 152.7% 376.0% 334.2%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 32.8% 32.2% 38.6% 53.7% 58.3%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 53.1% 76.2% 127.8% 255.7% 394.6%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 80.0% 51.6% 278.4% 167.1% 87.7%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 16.8% - 35.1% - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 344.1% 362.6% 503.3% 917.7% 746.2%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 9.5x 3.7x 12.7x 10.4x 5.8x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 33.9x 22.9x 34.3x 41.1x 61.5x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 37.4% 42.3% 35.8% 39.6% 34.3%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 58.6% 62.6% 57.3% 60.5% 57.6%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 56.7% 60.0% 54.7% 58.1% 55.1%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

141 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Digital China Holdings Ltd (861 HK)<br />

Sector: Information Technology Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Technology Hardware & Equipment Debt Service Cover (x) 0.6x<br />

Country: Hong Kong<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 19.5%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 2.4x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Digital China Holdings Ltd. is the largest integrated IT services provider in China. The Company got<br />

listed on 1 June, 2001 following a spin off from the Legend Group. It provides customers with<br />

comprehensive IT products and also services for technological development. The Company has four<br />

major revenue segments- Distribution, System, Supply Chain Services and Services.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Mar) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (HK$ m) 3,049 4,254 3,252 2,339 3,151<br />

Gross Debt (HK$ m) 1,969 4,053 1,729 1,199 812<br />

Interest Expense (HK$ m) (229) (335) (295) (146) (101)<br />

EBIT (HK$ m) 815 1,190 1,713 1,959 2,263<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 30.0% 53.9% 19.5% 11.6% 6.7%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 109.7% 106.2% 109.2% 101.2% 104.9%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 2.0x 2.3x 1.5x 0.7x 0.4x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.1x 0.1x 0.6x 2.8x 4.5x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 3.6x 3.5x 5.8x 13.4x 22.5x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (HK$ m) 56,804 70,319 78,051 90,719 103,438<br />

% Change (YoY) 13.2% 23.8% 11.0% 16.2% 14.0%<br />

EBITDA (HK$ m) 929 1,331 1,909 2,189 2,539<br />

% of Sales 1.6% 1.9% 2.4% 2.4% 2.5%<br />

Net Income (HK$ m) 1,005 1,245 1,644 1,945 2,223<br />

% of Sales 1.8% 1.8% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1%<br />

Free Cash Flow (HK$ m) 252 (16) 2,032 303 1,941<br />

% of Sales 0.4% 0.0% 2.6% 0.3% 1.9%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 2,772 3,049 4,254 3,252 2,339<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 252 (16) 2,032 303 1,941<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 3,024 3,034 6,286 3,555 4,280<br />

Principal Repayments 7,061 14,079 2,324 530 388<br />

Interest Payments 229 335 295 146 101<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 7,290 14,415 2,619 676 488<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.4x 0.2x 2.4x 5.3x 8.8x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In HK$ m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 4,254 90.9%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 7,340 156.9%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 11,594 247.9%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 11,594 247.9%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 4,677 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

142 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

19.4%<br />

80.6%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(HK$ m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 16,850 15,080 15,080<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 4,053 1,729 1,199<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

6.0x<br />

10.3%<br />

89.7%<br />

1.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.2x<br />

2011A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

7.4%<br />

92.6%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

3.0x<br />

16.0x<br />

2.5x<br />

14.0x<br />

12.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

8.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

5.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

19.81<br />

17.81<br />

15.81<br />

13.81<br />

11.81<br />

2.4x<br />

5.3x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

9.81<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Digital China Holdings Ltd<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (HK$ m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 56,804 70,319 78,051 90,719 103,438<br />

Operating Expenses (55,875) (68,988) (76,142) (88,531) (100,899)<br />

EBITDA 929 1,331 1,909 2,189 2,539<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (114) (141) (196) (230) (276)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 815 1,190 1,713 1,959 2,263<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (211) (277) (250) (113) (68)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 629 697 609 615 621<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 32 43 15 32 41<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 1,265 1,653 2,087 2,492 2,858<br />

Taxes on Profit (209) (314) (342) (428) (499)<br />

Minority Interests (51) (94) (101) (120) (137)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 1,005 1,245 1,644 1,945 2,223<br />

Balance Sheet (HK$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 638 1,028 1,371 1,755 2,131<br />

Long-term Investments 267 519 519 519 519<br />

Associates 709 814 829 860 900<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 232 241 240 239 238<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 2,569 3,006 3,525 4,126 4,741<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 14,327 19,562 18,507 24,561 24,550<br />

Total Current Assets 17,376 23,816 21,759 26,900 27,701<br />

Total Assets 19,946 26,822 25,284 31,027 32,442<br />

Shareholders' Equity 6,033 6,821 8,040 9,434 11,005<br />

Total Equity 6,571 7,523 8,843 10,357 12,065<br />

Long Term Debt 1,317 1,729 1,199 812 424<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 1,317 1,729 1,199 812 424<br />

Total Current Liabilities 12,058 17,570 15,242 19,858 19,953<br />

Total Liabilities 13,375 19,298 16,441 20,670 20,377<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 19,946 26,822 25,284 31,027 32,442<br />

Cash Flow Statement (HK$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 1,265 1,653 2,087 2,492 2,858<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 114 141 196 230 276<br />

Tax Paid (249) (270) (326) (387) (454)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (921) (1,480) 394 (1,489) (87)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 433 473 2,732 1,103 2,791<br />

Capital Expenditure (181) (488) (700) (800) (850)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (674) 49 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (841) (434) (690) (790) (840)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 89 2,071 (2,324) (530) (388)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 1,039 (327) 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (289) (344) (425) (551) (651)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 608 1,095 (3,044) (1,227) (1,139)<br />

Change in Cash 200 1,134 (1,002) (913) 812<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 1.6% 1.9% 2.4% 2.4% 2.5%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 1.4% 1.7% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 1.8% 1.8% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 19.6% 19.4% 22.1% 22.3% 21.7%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 4.7% 5.3% 6.7% 7.1% 7.2%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 18.2% 18.3% 24.0% 23.5% 23.1%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 30.0% 53.9% 19.5% 11.6% 6.7%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 348.0% 363.8% 350.6% 322.3% 310.5%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.1x 0.1x 0.6x 2.8x 4.5x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 3.6x 3.5x 5.8x 13.4x 22.5x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 25.3% 24.2% 21.3% 11.8% 15.8%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 144.1% 135.5% 142.8% 135.5% 138.8%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 109.7% 106.2% 109.2% 101.2% 104.9%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

143 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Dongfeng Motor Group Co., Ltd. (489 HK)<br />

Sector: Consumer Discretionary Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Automobiles & Components<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 47.8x<br />

Country: Hong Kong<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 14.9%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 122.6x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Dongfeng Motor Group Company Limited (the Company) is primarily engaged in the manufacture and<br />

sale of commercial vehicles, passenger vehicles and auto engines and parts, the manufacture of vehicle<br />

manufacturing equipment, finance businesses as well as other automotive-related businesses.Currently,<br />

the Company has 14 subsidiaries, jointly controlled entities and other companies in which it has direct<br />

equity interests, all of which constitute the Dongfeng Motor Group.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (RMB m) 44,250 44,747 42,322 44,984 53,831<br />

Gross Debt (RMB m) 9,560 8,813 8,813 8,813 8,813<br />

Interest Expense (RMB m) (254) (372) (353) (353) (353)<br />

EBIT (RMB m) 13,796 12,856 13,622 14,823 15,399<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 23.1% 17.8% 14.9% 12.7% 11.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 109.2% 110.5% 112.9% 115.1% 126.2%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.6x 0.6x 0.5x 0.5x 0.4x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.1x 0.7x 47.8x 53.0x 56.1x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 54.3x 34.6x 38.6x 42.1x 43.7x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (RMB m) 122,395 131,441 140,322 155,269 165,222<br />

% Change (YoY) 33.4% 7.4% 6.8% 10.7% 6.4%<br />

EBITDA (RMB m) 17,781 15,970 16,834 18,680 19,788<br />

% of Sales 14.5% 12.1% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0%<br />

Net Income (RMB m) 10,981 10,481 10,685 11,662 12,226<br />

% of Sales 9.0% 8.0% 7.6% 7.5% 7.4%<br />

Free Cash Flow (RMB m) 13,103 2,569 (1,525) 3,879 10,127<br />

% of Sales 10.7% 2.0% (1.1%) 2.5% 6.1%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 33,430 44,250 44,747 42,322 44,984<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 13,103 2,569 (1,525) 3,879 10,127<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 46,533 46,819 43,222 46,201 55,111<br />

Principal Repayments 12,551 16,282 0 0 0<br />

Interest Payments 254 372 353 353 353<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 12,805 16,654 353 353 353<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 3.6x 2.8x 122.6x 131.1x 156.3x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In RMB m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 44,747 2,538.7%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 31,566 1,790.9%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 76,313 4,329.6%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 76,313 4,329.6%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 1,763 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(RMB m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 93,010 82,842 85,149<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 8,813 8,813 8,813<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

60.0x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

140.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

3.6x 2.8x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EI320055 Corp At Maturity Unsecured RMB 2,000.0 2,000.0 100.00 15-Jul-2010 15-Jul-2013 3.49% 1<br />

144 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

120.0x<br />

100.0x<br />

8.7%<br />

91.3%<br />

9.6%<br />

90.4%<br />

9.4%<br />

90.6%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

50.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

60.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

80.0x<br />

60.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

19.34<br />

17.34<br />

15.34<br />

13.34<br />

11.34<br />

9.34<br />

122.6x<br />

131.1x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

7.34<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Dongfeng Motor Group Co., Ltd.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (RMB m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 122,395 131,441 140,322 155,269 165,222<br />

Operating Expenses (105,809) (116,592) (124,902) (138,059) (146,954)<br />

EBITDA 17,781 15,970 16,834 18,680 19,788<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (3,985) (3,114) (3,212) (3,857) (4,389)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 13,796 12,856 13,622 14,823 15,399<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 450 652 379 385 407<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 345 377 500 500 500<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 296 379 495 659 853<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 14,583 14,361 14,997 16,367 17,159<br />

Taxes on Profit (3,006) (3,401) (3,749) (4,092) (4,290)<br />

Minority Interests (596) (479) (562) (614) (643)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 10,981 10,481 10,685 11,662 12,226<br />

Balance Sheet (RMB m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 15,576 15,763 18,753 22,556 24,441<br />

Long-term Investments 246 306 306 306 306<br />

Associates 1,148 1,526 2,073 2,719 3,481<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 4,021 4,686 5,476 6,169 6,191<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 28,285 33,517 41,237 49,315 51,306<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 38,087 39,269 41,952 44,789 47,122<br />

Total Current Assets 82,337 84,016 84,274 89,773 100,952<br />

Total Assets 110,622 117,533 125,512 139,088 152,258<br />

Shareholders' Equity 37,494 46,394 55,528 65,267 75,393<br />

Total Equity 41,336 49,584 59,140 69,339 79,948<br />

Long Term Debt 6,289 2,820 2,820 2,820 2,820<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 6,630 3,234 3,180 3,157 3,146<br />

Total Current Liabilities 62,656 64,715 63,192 66,592 69,164<br />

Total Liabilities 69,286 67,949 66,372 69,749 72,310<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 110,622 117,533 125,512 139,088 152,258<br />

Cash Flow Statement (RMB m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 14,583 14,361 14,997 16,367 17,159<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 3,985 3,114 3,212 3,857 4,389<br />

Tax Paid (2,379) (4,315) (3,380) (3,936) (4,313)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 2,665 (2,505) (5,530) (516) (648)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 18,157 9,588 8,425 14,729 15,327<br />

Capital Expenditure (5,054) (7,019) (9,950) (10,850) (5,200)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (131) 1,110 (250) (250) (250)<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (6,078) (535) (8,805) (9,638) (3,868)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (2,500) (701) 0 0 0<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (776) (1,551) (1,551) (1,923) (2,099)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (3,559) (3,561) (2,044) (2,429) (2,613)<br />

Change in Cash 8,520 5,492 (2,425) 2,662 8,847<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 14.5% 12.1% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 11.3% 9.8% 9.7% 9.5% 9.3%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 9.0% 8.0% 7.6% 7.5% 7.4%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 33.9% 25.0% 21.0% 19.3% 17.4%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 14.7% 12.2% 11.8% 11.7% 11.1%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 161.4% 110.1% 57.0% 41.1% 37.3%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 23.1% 17.8% 14.9% 12.7% 11.0%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 303.1% 272.0% 238.5% 219.0% 207.1%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.1x 0.7x 47.8x 53.0x 56.1x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 54.3x 34.6x 38.6x 42.1x 43.7x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 66.1% 66.3% 64.0% 64.8% 75.2%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 131.4% 129.8% 133.4% 134.8% 146.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 109.2% 110.5% 112.9% 115.1% 126.2%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

145 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Ltd. (DRRD IN)<br />

Sector: Health Care Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology Debt Service Cover (x) 8.7x<br />

Country: India<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 48.5%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 11.1x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Founded as a bulk drug firm in the 1980s in India, Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Limited (DRL) is now a<br />

global, vertically integrated pharmaceutical company with a presence across the value chain. It<br />

manufactures and sells high quality finished dosage forms, active pharmaceutical ingredients and<br />

biological products. Its products cater to the following therapeutic segments- Anti-Diabetes,<br />

Cardiovascular, Gastrointestinal, Anti-Infective, Cancer treatment and Pain management.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Mar) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Rs m) 5,751 18,131 24,227 27,032 37,215<br />

Gross Debt (Rs m) 23,691 32,307 30,673 24,132 20,058<br />

Interest Expense (Rs m) (307) (1,111) (980) (882) (610)<br />

EBIT (Rs m) 11,551 19,170 20,665 23,537 26,158<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 58.8% 64.8% 48.5% 30.8% 21.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 76.4% 110.1% 128.5% 140.9% 166.7%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 1.2x 1.1x 1.2x 0.9x 0.7x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.4x 5.4x 8.7x 3.3x 5.7x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 37.6x 17.3x 21.1x 26.7x 42.9x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (Rs m) 74,233 97,086 114,644 129,267 143,114<br />

% Change (YoY) 5.6% 30.8% 18.1% 12.8% 10.7%<br />

EBITDA (Rs m) 15,532 24,351 26,317 29,651 32,711<br />

% of Sales 20.9% 25.1% 23.0% 22.9% 22.9%<br />

Net Income (Rs m) 9,989 13,009 16,688 19,106 21,393<br />

% of Sales 13.5% 13.4% 14.6% 14.8% 14.9%<br />

Free Cash Flow (Rs m) (3,985) 7,312 10,812 13,003 18,023<br />

% of Sales (5.4%) 7.5% 9.4% 10.1% 12.6%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 6,600 5,751 18,131 24,227 27,032<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (3,985) 7,312 10,812 13,003 18,023<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 2,615 13,063 28,943 37,230 45,055<br />

Principal Repayments 8,909 2,439 1,634 6,542 4,073<br />

Interest Payments 307 1,111 980 882 610<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 9,216 3,550 2,614 7,423 4,683<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.3x 3.7x 11.1x 5.0x 9.6x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In Rs m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 18,131 69.4%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 81,432 311.6%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 99,563 381.0%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 99,563 381.0%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 26,135 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(Rs m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 299,232 311,601 311,601<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 32,307 30,673 24,132<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

12.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.3x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EI613653 Corp At Maturity Unsecured Rs 5,077.6 5,077.6 N.A. 24-Mar-2011 24-Mar-2014 9.25% 1<br />

146 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

9.7%<br />

90.3%<br />

9.0%<br />

91.0%<br />

7.2%<br />

92.8%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

10.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

35.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (Rs)<br />

10.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

2,312<br />

2,112<br />

1,912<br />

1,712<br />

1,512<br />

3.7x<br />

11.1x<br />

5.0x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

1,312<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Ltd.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (Rs m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 74,233 97,086 114,644 129,267 143,114<br />

Operating Expenses (59,437) (73,794) (90,073) (101,525) (112,495)<br />

EBITDA 15,532 24,351 26,317 29,651 32,711<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (3,981) (5,181) (5,653) (6,114) (6,552)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 11,551 19,170 20,665 23,537 26,158<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (129) (659) (607) (436) (61)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 406 926 945 964 984<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 11,828 18,044 21,003 24,065 27,081<br />

Taxes on Profit (1,839) (5,035) (4,315) (4,959) (5,688)<br />

Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 9,989 13,009 16,688 19,106 21,393<br />

Balance Sheet (Rs m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 23,266 25,732 26,683 27,230 27,446<br />

Long-term Investments 9 9 10 11 11<br />

Associates 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 10,589 8,385 7,443 6,604 5,772<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 41,481 43,252 43,967 44,202 43,982<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 42,399 51,859 59,519 67,457 72,266<br />

Total Current Assets 48,150 69,990 83,745 94,489 109,481<br />

Total Assets 89,631 113,242 127,712 138,691 153,462<br />

Shareholders' Equity 40,319 49,890 63,260 78,476 95,466<br />

Total Equity 40,319 49,890 63,260 78,476 95,466<br />

Long Term Debt 5,372 16,419 16,393 11,289 8,504<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 7,227 17,438 17,412 12,308 9,523<br />

Total Current Liabilities 42,085 45,914 47,040 47,907 48,473<br />

Total Liabilities 49,312 63,352 64,452 60,215 57,997<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 89,631 113,242 127,712 138,691 153,462<br />

Cash Flow Statement (Rs m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 11,828 18,044 21,003 24,065 27,081<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 3,981 5,181 5,653 6,114 6,552<br />

Tax Paid (2,988) (4,554) (4,315) (4,959) (5,688)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (6,587) (8,938) (5,774) (6,233) (3,533)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 7,554 16,126 17,412 19,603 24,623<br />

Capital Expenditure (11,539) (8,814) (6,600) (6,600) (6,600)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 2,424 (1,724) (283) 172 256<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (8,988) (10,206) (6,509) (5,982) (5,795)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 8,915 7,212 (1,634) (6,542) (4,073)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 29 6 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (8,141) (2,216) (2,709) (3,471) (3,974)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 445 3,891 (5,323) (10,894) (8,657)<br />

Change in Cash (989) 9,811 5,580 2,727 10,171<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 20.9% 25.1% 23.0% 22.9% 22.9%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 15.6% 19.7% 18.0% 18.2% 18.3%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 13.5% 13.4% 14.6% 14.8% 14.9%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 25.6% 28.8% 29.5% 27.0% 24.6%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 14.3% 19.3% 17.5% 18.0% 18.3%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 18.8% 22.1% 24.2% 25.4% 26.5%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 58.8% 64.8% 48.5% 30.8% 21.0%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 44.5% 32.6% 14.3% - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 209.0% 224.9% 213.0% 188.0% 168.0%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.4x 5.4x 8.7x 3.3x 5.7x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 37.6x 17.3x 21.1x 26.7x 42.9x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 13.7% 35.0% 46.0% 50.9% 71.3%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 114.4% 152.4% 178.0% 197.2% 225.9%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 76.4% 110.1% 128.5% 140.9% 166.7%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

147 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Engineers India Limited (ENGR IN)<br />

Sector: Industrials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Capital Goods<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 718.9x<br />

Country: India<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 0.0%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1,959.0x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Engineers India Limited is a design and engineering company in the field of petroleum refineries, oil and<br />

gas processing, offshore structures and platforms, fertilizers, metallurgy and power. EIL provides<br />

services such as design , engineering, procurement, construction management, commissioning<br />

assistance and project management.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Mar) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Rs m) 17,540 16,870 21,476 25,898 31,062<br />

Gross Debt (Rs m) 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Interest Expense (Rs m) (15) (12) (11) (9) (9)<br />

EBIT (Rs m) 6,460 6,980 7,564 8,541 9,376<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 146.1% 178.4% 222.2% 246.9% 264.8%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) - - - - -<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 449.2x 618.6x 718.9x 927.9x 1,039.5x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 439.3x 601.6x 702.5x 908.1x 1,021.5x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (Rs m) 28,482 37,234 31,547 35,669 40,103<br />

% Change (YoY) 41.4% 30.7% (15.3%) 13.1% 12.4%<br />

EBITDA (Rs m) 6,605 7,176 7,739 8,727 9,541<br />

% of Sales 23.2% 19.3% 24.5% 24.5% 23.8%<br />

Net Income (Rs m) 5,313 6,439 7,055 7,103 7,774<br />

% of Sales 18.7% 17.3% 22.4% 19.9% 19.4%<br />

Free Cash Flow (Rs m) 3,478 (935) 4,221 3,526 3,718<br />

% of Sales 12.2% (2.5%) 13.4% 9.9% 9.3%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 17,945 17,540 16,870 21,476 25,898<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 3,478 (935) 4,221 3,526 3,718<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 21,423 16,605 21,091 25,002 29,616<br />

Principal Repayments 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Interest Payments 15 12 11 9 9<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 15 12 11 9 9<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1,456.9x 1,431.2x 1,959.0x 2,658.4x 3,226.4x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In Rs m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 16,870 35,395.7%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 17,972 37,706.7%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 34,842 73,102.4%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 34,842 73,102.4%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 48 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

148 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

100.0% 100.0% 100.0%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity<br />

(Rs m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 85,683 78,102 78,102<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 0 0 0<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

1000.0x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

800.0x<br />

600.0x<br />

400.0x<br />

200.0x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

3000.0x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Share Price (Rs)<br />

2500.0x<br />

2000.0x<br />

1500.0x<br />

1000.0x<br />

500.0x<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

1000.0x<br />

800.0x<br />

600.0x<br />

400.0x<br />

200.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

321<br />

271<br />

221<br />

1456.9x 1431.2x<br />

1959.0x<br />

2658.4x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

171<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Engineers India Limited<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (Rs m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 28,482 37,234 31,547 35,669 40,103<br />

Operating Expenses (21,877) (30,058) (23,807) (26,942) (30,562)<br />

EBITDA 6,605 7,176 7,739 8,727 9,541<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (145) (197) (176) (187) (165)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 6,460 6,980 7,564 8,541 9,376<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 1,250 1,669 1,405 1,718 2,042<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 280 1,029 1,240 391 242<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 7,984 9,271 10,208 10,649 11,660<br />

Taxes on Profit (2,671) (2,833) (3,153) (3,547) (3,886)<br />

Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 5,313 6,439 7,055 7,103 7,774<br />

Balance Sheet (Rs m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 606 549 527 491 472<br />

Long-term Investments 0 575 575 575 575<br />

Associates 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 27 16 10 (1) (9)<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 3,723 4,406 4,700 4,833 4,975<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 13,957 16,760 12,985 13,303 14,080<br />

Total Current Assets 31,496 33,630 34,461 39,201 45,142<br />

Total Assets 35,220 38,036 39,162 44,035 50,116<br />

Shareholders' Equity 14,899 18,988 23,468 27,978 32,914<br />

Total Equity 14,899 18,988 23,468 27,978 32,914<br />

Long Term Debt 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 223 267 260 259 259<br />

Total Current Liabilities 20,098 18,781 15,434 15,798 16,943<br />

Total Liabilities 20,321 19,048 15,694 16,056 17,202<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 35,220 38,036 39,162 44,035 50,116<br />

Cash Flow Statement (Rs m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 7,984 9,271 10,208 10,649 11,660<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 145 197 176 187 165<br />

Tax Paid (2,710) (3,224) (3,280) (3,547) (3,886)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (844) 2,980 (232) 32 (154)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 3,733 (533) 4,476 3,771 3,958<br />

Capital Expenditure (254) (401) (255) (245) (240)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 1 3 (7) (8) (10)<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (2,223) 2,374 2,609 3,242 3,894<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (1,347) (2,350) (2,468) (2,581) (2,678)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (1,362) (2,361) (2,478) (2,591) (2,687)<br />

Change in Cash 147 (520) 4,606 4,422 5,164<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 23.2% 19.3% 24.5% 24.5% 23.8%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 22.7% 18.7% 24.0% 23.9% 23.4%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 18.7% 17.3% 22.4% 19.9% 19.4%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 40.2% 38.0% 33.2% 27.6% 25.5%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 24.1% 23.6% 23.3% 24.7% 24.3%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) - - 299.8% 331.1% 378.9%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 242.0% 216.2% 181.8% 161.7% 154.6%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 449.2x 618.6x 718.9x 927.9x 1,039.5x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 439.3x 601.6x 702.5x 908.1x 1,021.5x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 87.3% 89.8% 139.2% 163.9% 183.3%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 156.7% 179.1% 223.3% 248.1% 266.4%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 146.1% 178.4% 222.2% 246.9% 264.8%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

149 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Esprit Holdings Ltd. (330 HK)<br />

Sector: Consumer Discretionary Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Retailing<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 3.8x<br />

Country: Hong Kong<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 8.1%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 11.0x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Esprit Holdings Limited (Esprit) is primarily engaged in wholesale and retail distribution and licensing of<br />

apparel, footwear, fashion accessories and life-style products designed under the Esprit label. The<br />

Company operates more that 12 established product lines offering women’s wear, men’s wear, kid’s<br />

wear as well as shoes and accessories. In Asia, it also sells Red Earth cosmetic brands that offer<br />

cosmetic, skin care and body care products. It also licenses its trademark to third-party licensees that<br />

offer non-apparel products.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 30 Jun) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (HK$ m) 4,794 3,171 8,218 7,239 7,533<br />

Gross Debt (HK$ m) 2,080 1,682 1,699 1,712 1,720<br />

Interest Expense (HK$ m) (21) (25) (34) (34) (34)<br />

EBIT (HK$ m) 1,509 1,260 940 1,189 2,161<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 12.8% 10.8% 8.1% 7.9% 7.7%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 112.0% 112.1% 216.6% 198.4% 192.9%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 1.0x 0.9x 1.1x 0.9x 0.6x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.5x 1.9x 3.8x 4.4x 6.6x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 71.9x 50.4x 27.8x 34.9x 63.0x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (HK$ m) 33,767 30,165 26,483 27,246 29,777<br />

% Change (YoY) 0.1% (10.7%) (12.2%) 2.9% 9.3%<br />

EBITDA (HK$ m) 2,398 2,003 1,556 1,801 2,776<br />

% of Sales 7.1% 6.6% 5.9% 6.6% 9.3%<br />

Net Income (HK$ m) 79 873 715 919 1,639<br />

% of Sales 0.2% 2.9% 2.7% 3.4% 5.5%<br />

Free Cash Flow (HK$ m) 399 (690) 303 (518) 1,086<br />

% of Sales 1.2% (2.3%) 1.1% (1.9%) 3.6%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 6,748 4,794 3,171 8,218 7,239<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 399 (690) 303 (518) 1,086<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 7,147 4,104 3,474 7,700 8,325<br />

Principal Repayments 520 792 283 288 291<br />

Interest Payments 21 25 34 34 34<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 541 817 316 322 326<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 13.2x 5.0x 11.0x 23.9x 25.6x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In HK$ m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 3,171 195.4%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 4,542 279.8%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 7,713 475.2%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 7,713 475.2%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 1,623 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

150 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

11.6%<br />

88.4%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(HK$ m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 12,769 22,470 22,470<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 1,682 1,699 1,712<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

30.0x<br />

7.0% 7.1%<br />

93.0% 92.9%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

5.0x<br />

80.0x<br />

70.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

60.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

25.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

13.2x<br />

5.0x<br />

11.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

23.9x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

20.97<br />

18.97<br />

16.97<br />

14.97<br />

12.97<br />

10.97<br />

8.97<br />

6.97<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Esprit Holdings Ltd.<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (HK$ m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 33,767 30,165 26,483 27,246 29,777<br />

Operating Expenses (31,369) (28,162) (24,926) (25,445) (27,002)<br />

EBITDA 2,398 2,003 1,556 1,801 2,776<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (889) (743) (616) (612) (615)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 1,509 1,260 940 1,189 2,161<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 18 (9) 6 20 17<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 710 1,162 947 1,209 2,178<br />

Taxes on Profit (631) (289) (231) (289) (539)<br />

Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 79 873 715 919 1,639<br />

Balance Sheet (HK$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 2,768 2,634 3,129 3,671 4,130<br />

Long-term Investments 21 20 20 20 20<br />

Associates 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 7,672 7,613 7,557 7,501 7,447<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 13,418 13,073 13,885 14,758 15,442<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 8,822 7,436 6,053 6,790 7,103<br />

Total Current Assets 13,616 10,607 14,271 14,029 14,636<br />

Total Assets 27,034 23,680 28,156 28,787 30,079<br />

Shareholders' Equity 16,233 15,606 21,084 21,557 22,430<br />

Total Equity 16,233 15,606 21,084 21,557 22,430<br />

Long Term Debt 1,560 1,040 1,040 1,040 1,040<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 2,410 1,815 1,815 1,815 1,815<br />

Total Current Liabilities 8,391 6,259 5,257 5,415 5,833<br />

Total Liabilities 10,801 8,074 7,072 7,230 7,648<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 27,034 23,680 28,156 28,787 30,079<br />

Cash Flow Statement (HK$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 710 1,162 947 1,209 2,178<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 889 743 616 612 615<br />

Tax Paid (1,551) 147 (231) (289) (539)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (1,394) (158) 415 (596) 81<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 1,835 730 1,803 982 2,386<br />

Capital Expenditure (1,436) (1,420) (1,500) (1,500) (1,300)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (243) (10) 21 19 17<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (1,634) (1,402) (1,439) (1,427) (1,231)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (520) (397) 17 12 9<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 8 0 5,169 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (2,079) (326) (469) (513) (835)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (2,612) (748) 4,683 (535) (861)<br />

Change in Cash (2,411) (1,420) 5,047 (980) 295<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 7.1% 6.6% 5.9% 6.6% 9.3%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 4.5% 4.2% 3.6% 4.4% 7.3%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 0.2% 2.9% 2.7% 3.4% 5.5%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 0.5% 5.5% 3.9% 4.3% 7.5%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 6.0% 5.1% 3.8% 4.4% 7.5%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 1.2% 6.5% 4.7% 5.6% 9.5%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 12.8% 10.8% 8.1% 7.9% 7.7%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 159.7% 159.3% 141.3% 133.5% 133.8%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.5x 1.9x 3.8x 4.4x 6.6x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 71.9x 50.4x 27.8x 34.9x 63.0x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 57.1% 50.7% 156.3% 133.7% 129.1%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 162.3% 169.5% 271.5% 259.1% 250.9%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 112.0% 112.1% 216.6% 198.4% 192.9%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

151 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Exide Industries Ltd. (EXID IN)<br />

Sector: Consumer Discretionary Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Automobiles & Components<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 87.9x<br />

Country: India<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 1.2%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 112.5x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Based in India, Exide Industries Limited is one of the leading manufacturers of Lead Acid Batteries in the<br />

sub-continent. The company manufactures the widest range of storage batteries in the world from 2.5 Ah<br />

to 20,400 Ah capacity, covering the broadest spectrum of applications.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Mar) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Rs m) 5,260 7,119 8,735 12,885 18,226<br />

Gross Debt (Rs m) 1,036 322 371 445 545<br />

Interest Expense (Rs m) (116) (146) (38) (41) (50)<br />

EBIT (Rs m) 8,670 6,367 8,583 10,278 12,136<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 4.3% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.3%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 98.3% 118.1% 136.2% 169.4% 207.5%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.1x 0.1x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 6.0x 6.4x 87.9x 149.5x 277.9x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 75.1x 43.5x 225.3x 251.8x 245.1x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (Rs m) 47,661 53,187 63,078 72,829 81,114<br />

% Change (YoY) 19.8% 11.6% 18.6% 15.5% 11.4%<br />

EBITDA (Rs m) 9,566 7,451 9,825 11,729 13,762<br />

% of Sales 20.1% 14.0% 15.6% 16.1% 17.0%<br />

Net Income (Rs m) 6,188 4,461 6,121 7,320 8,639<br />

% of Sales 13.0% 8.4% 9.7% 10.1% 10.7%<br />

Free Cash Flow (Rs m) 1,528 3,919 2,862 5,610 6,992<br />

% of Sales 3.2% 7.4% 4.5% 7.7% 8.6%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 6,331 5,260 7,119 8,735 12,885<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 1,528 3,919 2,862 5,610 6,992<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 7,859 9,179 9,981 14,345 19,877<br />

Principal Repayments 1,012 715 51 26 0<br />

Interest Payments 116 146 38 41 50<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 1,128 861 89 67 50<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 7.0x 10.7x 112.5x 215.4x 401.4x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In Rs m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 7,119 2,132.2%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 31,447 9,419.0%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 38,565 11,551.2%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 38,565 11,551.2%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 334 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

152 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

0.3%<br />

99.7%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(Rs m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 126,820 120,955 120,955<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 322 371 445<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

160.0x<br />

300.0x<br />

140.0x<br />

120.0x<br />

250.0x<br />

100.0x<br />

200.0x<br />

80.0x<br />

150.0x<br />

60.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

100.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

250.0x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

0.3%<br />

99.7%<br />

50.0x<br />

7.0x 10.7x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Share Price (Rs)<br />

200.0x<br />

150.0x<br />

100.0x<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

0.4%<br />

99.6%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

189<br />

169<br />

149<br />

129<br />

109<br />

112.5x<br />

215.4x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

89<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Exide Industries Ltd.<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (Rs m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 47,661 53,187 63,078 72,829 81,114<br />

Operating Expenses (38,095) (45,736) (53,253) (61,099) (67,352)<br />

EBITDA 9,566 7,451 9,825 11,729 13,762<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (896) (1,084) (1,242) (1,452) (1,626)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 8,670 6,367 8,583 10,278 12,136<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (112) (144) (28) (29) (32)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 549 404 602 667 775<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 9,570 6,626 9,157 10,916 12,878<br />

Taxes on Profit (2,975) (1,979) (2,867) (3,437) (4,073)<br />

Minority Interests (57) (31) (50) (60) (70)<br />

Other Post-tax Items (350) (156) (119) (99) (96)<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 6,188 4,461 6,121 7,320 8,639<br />

Balance Sheet (Rs m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 9,200 10,456 11,786 13,075 14,173<br />

Long-term Investments 302 320 320 320 320<br />

Associates 3,279 3,124 3,005 2,906 2,810<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 476 587 594 599 601<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 14,109 14,957 16,126 17,294 18,289<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 16,264 17,183 18,787 19,269 19,737<br />

Total Current Assets 21,524 24,302 27,522 32,154 37,963<br />

Total Assets 35,634 39,258 43,648 49,448 56,252<br />

Shareholders' Equity 23,851 26,874 31,158 36,282 42,330<br />

Total Equity 23,958 26,999 31,333 36,517 42,635<br />

Long Term Debt 80 26 0 0 0<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 1,317 1,511 1,574 1,661 1,740<br />

Total Current Liabilities 10,359 10,749 10,740 11,269 11,877<br />

Total Liabilities 11,676 12,260 12,314 12,931 13,617<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 35,634 39,258 43,648 49,448 56,252<br />

Cash Flow Statement (Rs m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 9,570 6,626 9,157 10,916 12,878<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 896 1,084 1,242 1,452 1,626<br />

Tax Paid (3,031) (2,003) (2,867) (3,437) (4,073)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (2,096) 513 (1,770) (103) (57)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 4,477 6,023 5,362 8,310 9,692<br />

Capital Expenditure (2,949) (2,105) (2,500) (2,700) (2,700)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 198 (1,631) (1,500) (3,900) (4,800)<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (2,445) (3,397) (3,563) (6,041) (6,768)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (499) (715) 49 74 100<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (1,528) (1,433) (1,694) (2,052) (2,434)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (2,144) (2,294) (1,683) (2,019) (2,383)<br />

Change in Cash (112) 333 116 250 541<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 20.1% 14.0% 15.6% 16.1% 17.0%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 18.2% 12.0% 13.6% 14.1% 15.0%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 13.0% 8.4% 9.7% 10.1% 10.7%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 28.8% 17.6% 21.1% 21.7% 22.0%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 26.7% 17.0% 20.7% 22.1% 23.0%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 39.3% 25.1% 29.9% 32.2% 36.0%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 4.3% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.3%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 3.4% - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 150.8% 147.6% 142.9% 138.0% 134.5%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 6.0x 6.4x 87.9x 149.5x 277.9x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 75.1x 43.5x 225.3x 251.8x 245.1x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 2.2% 5.8% 6.9% 8.8% 12.9%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 207.8% 226.1% 256.3% 285.3% 319.6%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 98.3% 118.1% 136.2% 169.4% 207.5%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

153 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Far EasTone Telecommunications Co., Ltd. (4904 TT)<br />

Sector: Telecommunication Services Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Telecommunication Services Debt Service Cover (x) 13.2x<br />

Country: Taiwan<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 2.2%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 17.7x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

The company provides 2G wireless communications services under two type I licenses - GSM900 (in the<br />

northers region) and GSM1800 (island-wide) - issued by the Directorate General of Telecommunications<br />

(DGT) of the ROC. Far EasTone launched 3G multimedia services in 2005, becoming the first 3G<br />

WCMDA provider in Taiwan. It went on to launch Taiwan’s first 3.6 Mbps HSPA technology-based<br />

services in 2006, ushering in the age of 3.5G mobile communications.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (NT$ m) 12,847 13,791 16,816 22,760 24,697<br />

Gross Debt (NT$ m) 6,594 3,197 1,641 872 470<br />

Interest Expense (NT$ m) (47) (61) (41) (21) (11)<br />

EBIT (NT$ m) 11,174 11,517 14,647 15,860 15,705<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 9.0% 4.4% 2.2% 1.1% 0.6%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 100.7% 115.4% 140.0% 155.4% 174.3%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.2x 0.2x 0.1x 0.0x 0.0x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 309.1x 5.1x 13.2x 27.8x 52.7x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 237.2x 188.6x 356.2x 742.5x 1,376.8x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (NT$ m) 63,436 75,749 89,296 94,838 98,473<br />

% Change (YoY) 5.6% 19.4% 17.9% 6.2% 3.8%<br />

EBITDA (NT$ m) 22,028 22,483 25,568 26,668 26,394<br />

% of Sales 34.7% 29.7% 28.6% 28.1% 26.8%<br />

Net Income (NT$ m) 8,849 8,881 11,645 12,723 12,621<br />

% of Sales 13.9% 11.7% 13.0% 13.4% 12.8%<br />

Free Cash Flow (NT$ m) 14,479 13,981 14,510 17,653 14,295<br />

% of Sales 22.8% 18.5% 16.2% 18.6% 14.5%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 12,215 12,847 13,791 16,816 22,760<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 14,479 13,981 14,510 17,653 14,295<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 26,693 26,827 28,301 34,469 37,055<br />

Principal Repayments 20 3,590 1,555 769 402<br />

Interest Payments 47 61 41 21 11<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 67 3,651 1,596 791 413<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 400.6x 7.3x 17.7x 43.6x 89.7x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In NT$ m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 13,791 437.3%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 77,622 2,461.3%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 91,413 2,898.6%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 91,413 2,898.6%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 3,154 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

154 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

1.7%<br />

98.3%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

0.7%<br />

99.3%<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(NT$ m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 185,409 241,455 236,567<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 3,197 1,641 872<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

350.0x<br />

800.0x<br />

300.0x<br />

700.0x<br />

250.0x<br />

600.0x<br />

200.0x<br />

150.0x<br />

500.0x<br />

400.0x<br />

300.0x<br />

100.0x<br />

200.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

100.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

450.0x<br />

400.0x<br />

350.0x<br />

300.0x<br />

250.0x<br />

200.0x<br />

150.0x<br />

100.0x<br />

400.6x<br />

50.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

7.3x 17.7x<br />

43.6x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (NT$)<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

0.4%<br />

99.6%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

86<br />

76<br />

66<br />

56<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

46<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Far EasTone Telecommunications Co., Ltd.<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (NT$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 63,436 75,749 89,296 94,838 98,473<br />

Operating Expenses (41,408) (53,266) (63,727) (68,171) (72,079)<br />

EBITDA 22,028 22,483 25,568 26,668 26,394<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (10,854) (10,966) (10,922) (10,808) (10,688)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 11,174 11,517 14,647 15,860 15,705<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 37 67 105 179 238<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 299 307 290 290 290<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits (37) (26) 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 10,966 10,875 14,269 15,530 15,408<br />

Taxes on Profit (2,102) (1,948) (2,576) (2,790) (2,769)<br />

Minority Interests (15) (46) (48) (17) (17)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 8,849 8,881 11,645 12,723 12,621<br />

Balance Sheet (NT$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 49,469 47,279 45,548 43,474 41,363<br />

Long-term Investments 1,275 229 229 229 229<br />

Associates 239 341 341 341 341<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 17,323 16,780 16,048 15,315 14,583<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 74,333 70,263 67,184 64,188 61,283<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 10,468 11,377 13,553 13,165 14,680<br />

Total Current Assets 23,315 25,168 30,369 35,926 39,376<br />

Total Assets 97,647 95,431 97,553 100,114 100,659<br />

Shareholders' Equity 71,281 71,977 73,607 75,302 75,875<br />

Total Equity 73,553 72,776 74,455 76,166 76,756<br />

Long Term Debt 6 171 137 103 68<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 1,955 2,569 2,535 2,501 2,467<br />

Total Current Liabilities 22,139 20,085 20,563 21,447 21,436<br />

Total Liabilities 24,094 22,654 23,098 23,948 23,903<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 97,647 95,431 97,553 100,114 100,659<br />

Cash Flow Statement (NT$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 10,966 10,875 14,269 15,530 15,408<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 10,854 10,966 10,922 10,808 10,688<br />

Tax Paid (1,561) (1,938) (1,999) (2,394) (2,582)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 3,297 3,174 1,571 4,235 1,439<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 22,694 22,646 23,210 26,353 22,995<br />

Capital Expenditure (8,216) (8,665) (8,700) (8,700) (8,700)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 3,524 (37) (320) (114) (10)<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (24,065) (8,546) (9,020) (8,814) (8,710)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 5,479 (3,400) (1,555) (769) (402)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (9,141) (8,196) (9,776) (10,714) (11,705)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (3,779) (13,406) (11,571) (11,798) (12,450)<br />

Change in Cash (5,150) 694 2,620 5,741 1,835<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 34.7% 29.7% 28.6% 28.1% 26.8%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 17.6% 15.2% 16.4% 16.7% 15.9%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 13.9% 11.7% 13.0% 13.4% 12.8%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 12.4% 12.4% 16.0% 17.1% 16.7%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 12.2% 12.1% 15.3% 16.2% 15.9%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 14.6% 14.4% 19.2% 22.2% 23.3%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 9.0% 4.4% 2.2% 1.1% 0.6%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 128.9% 134.8% 132.6% 132.7% 132.8%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 309.1x 5.1x 13.2x 27.8x 52.7x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 237.2x 188.6x 356.2x 742.5x 1,376.8x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 41.4% 49.3% 60.9% 85.2% 93.8%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 105.3% 125.3% 147.7% 167.5% 183.7%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 100.7% 115.4% 140.0% 155.4% 174.3%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

155 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Financial Technologies India Ltd (FTECH IN)<br />

Sector: Information Technology Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Software & Services<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.8x<br />

Country: India<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 65.5%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 11.1x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Financial Technologies (India) Ltd. provides technology solutions and domain expertise for digital<br />

transactions and financial markets in various asset classes, including equity, commodities, currency, and<br />

debt. It provides exchange, brokerage, messaging, consulting, connectivity, and training solutions. It<br />

operates a network of number of exchanges connecting financial markets primarily in the economies of<br />

Africa, the Middle East, India, and the southeast Asia; and many ecosystem ventures to address<br />

upstream and downstream opportunities in the exchanges, such as clearing, depository, information<br />

vending, and payment gateway.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Mar) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Rs m) 8,577 7,243 5,904 5,172 4,747<br />

Gross Debt (Rs m) 10,840 12,469 12,469 12,469 12,469<br />

Interest Expense (Rs m) (306) (712) (611) (611) (611)<br />

EBIT (Rs m) (1,483) (408) 186 1 (46)<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 69.0% 71.5% 65.5% 60.8% 56.2%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 175.9% 277.2% 284.7% 282.1% 290.0%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) - - 25.6x 39.7x 46.6x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) - - 0.8x 0.5x 0.4x<br />

Interest Cover (x) - - 0.3x 0.0x -<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (Rs m) 4,079 5,012 5,965 5,996 6,333<br />

% Change (YoY) 31.5% 22.9% 19.0% 0.5% 5.6%<br />

EBITDA (Rs m) (1,180) (92) 487 314 268<br />

% of Sales (28.9%) (1.8%) 8.2% 5.2% 4.2%<br />

Net Income (Rs m) (1,368) 2,641 2,321 2,079 2,435<br />

% of Sales (33.5%) 52.7% 38.9% 34.7% 38.4%<br />

Free Cash Flow (Rs m) (5,371) 2,107 (459) (416) (227)<br />

% of Sales (131.7%) 42.0% (7.7%) (6.9%) (3.6%)<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 6,571 8,577 7,243 5,904 5,172<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (5,371) 2,107 (459) (416) (227)<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 1,201 10,684 6,785 5,488 4,946<br />

Principal Repayments 0 24 0 0 0<br />

Interest Payments 306 712 611 611 611<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 306 736 611 611 611<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 3.9x 14.5x 11.1x 9.0x 8.1x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In Rs m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 7,243 237.3%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation (1,238) (40.6%)<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 6,005 196.7%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 6,005 196.7%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 3,053 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

156 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

28.3%<br />

71.7%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(Rs m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 31,529 51,509 51,509<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 12,469 12,469 12,469<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

0.9x<br />

0<br />

0.8x<br />

0<br />

0.7x<br />

0.6x<br />

0<br />

0.5x<br />

0<br />

0.4x<br />

0<br />

0.3x<br />

0.2x<br />

0<br />

0.1x<br />

0<br />

0.0x<br />

0<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

16.0x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

19.5% 19.5%<br />

80.5% 80.5%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

14.0x<br />

12.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

3.9x<br />

14.5x<br />

11.1x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Share Price (Rs)<br />

1446<br />

1246<br />

1046<br />

846<br />

646<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

9.0x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

446<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Financial Technologies India Ltd<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (Rs m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 4,079 5,012 5,965 5,996 6,333<br />

Operating Expenses (5,260) (5,104) (5,477) (5,681) (6,066)<br />

EBITDA (1,180) (92) 487 314 268<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (303) (316) (302) (313) (314)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) (1,483) (408) 186 1 (46)<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 95 (238) (466) (504) (525)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 1,283 2,896 1,754 1,097 1,105<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax (2,197) 2,251 1,474 594 533<br />

Taxes on Profit 216 (621) (478) (193) (173)<br />

Minority Interests (19) (18) (11) (4) (4)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 632 1,028 1,337 1,683 2,079<br />

Net Profit (Reported) (1,368) 2,641 2,321 2,079 2,435<br />

Balance Sheet (Rs m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 4,267 4,942 5,111 5,114 5,110<br />

Long-term Investments 1,417 2,257 2,466 2,119 895<br />

Associates 2,912 3,221 4,469 6,152 8,231<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 260 220 230 219 216<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 11,312 14,026 15,737 17,084 17,958<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 11,965 15,784 16,722 17,583 18,953<br />

Total Current Assets 20,542 23,028 22,626 22,755 23,700<br />

Total Assets 31,854 37,054 38,364 39,839 41,659<br />

Shareholders' Equity 15,553 17,280 18,888 20,329 22,017<br />

Total Equity 15,700 17,429 19,048 20,494 22,185<br />

Long Term Debt 5,144 11,574 11,574 11,574 11,574<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 5,354 11,986 11,994 11,984 12,003<br />

Total Current Liabilities 10,800 7,639 7,322 7,362 7,471<br />

Total Liabilities 16,154 19,625 19,315 19,346 19,474<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 31,854 37,054 38,364 39,839 41,659<br />

Cash Flow Statement (Rs m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) (2,197) 2,251 1,474 594 533<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 303 316 302 313 314<br />

Tax Paid (530) (977) (478) (193) (173)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (1,306) 2,374 (438) (208) 4<br />

Cash Flow from Operations (2,730) 2,540 141 (16) 173<br />

Capital Expenditure (2,641) (433) (600) (400) (400)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 1,917 (1,196) (342) 267 466<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (2,289) (1,190) (229) 552 732<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 6,768 (2,754) 0 0 0<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (429) (428) (642) (657) (720)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 6,040 (3,894) (1,252) (1,268) (1,331)<br />

Change in Cash 1,021 (2,545) (1,339) (731) (425)<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) (28.9%) (1.8%) 8.2% 5.2% 4.2%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) (36.4%) (8.1%) 3.1% 0.0% (0.7%)<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) (33.5%) 52.7% 38.9% 34.7% 38.4%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) (8.3%) 16.1% 12.8% 10.6% 11.5%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) (4.6%) (0.6%) 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) (11.7%) (1.9%) 0.7% 0.0% (0.2%)<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 69.0% 71.5% 65.5% 60.8% 56.2%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 17.9% 33.2% 37.4% 38.3% 37.3%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 173.6% 209.9% 208.5% 199.4% 192.5%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) - - 0.8x 0.5x 0.4x<br />

Interest Cover (x) - - 0.3x 0.0x -<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 74.4% 87.5% 73.0% 62.6% 56.0%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 190.2% 301.4% 309.0% 309.1% 317.2%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 175.9% 277.2% 284.7% 282.1% 290.0%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

157 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Fortescue Metals Group (FMG AU)<br />

Sector: Materials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Materials<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 2.6x<br />

Country: Australia<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 202.6%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.3x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Fortescue Group was formed in 2003 and has established itself as the fifth largest iron-ore producer in<br />

the world with a strong presence in the sea-borne iron-ore trade. The group is headquartered in East<br />

Perth, Western Australia and holds more than 87,000 square kilometers of tenements in the region. It<br />

has two main areas of operation in the Pilbara region of Western Australia, namely the Chichester Hub<br />

and the Solomon Hub.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 30 Jun) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (US$ m) 2,663 2,343 1,874 1,871 782<br />

Gross Debt (US$ m) 4,718 8,338 11,021 10,293 8,648<br />

Interest Expense (US$ m) (464) (584) (1,125) (1,222) (1,139)<br />

EBIT (US$ m) 2,587 2,562 3,649 5,347 6,770<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 182.3% 212.4% 202.6% 130.6% 77.2%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 275.4% 141.9% 87.1% 74.0% 48.7%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 1.4x 2.3x 2.4x 1.8x 1.3x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.7x 4.7x 2.6x 1.0x 1.2x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 5.6x 4.4x 3.2x 4.4x 5.9x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (US$ m) 5,442 6,681 9,878 14,210 17,327<br />

% Change (YoY) 69.0% 22.8% 47.9% 43.9% 21.9%<br />

EBITDA (US$ m) 2,764 2,829 4,020 5,914 7,472<br />

% of Sales 50.8% 42.3% 40.7% 41.6% 43.1%<br />

Net Income (US$ m) 1,019 1,559 1,813 2,927 3,977<br />

% of Sales 18.7% 23.3% 18.4% 20.6% 23.0%<br />

Free Cash Flow (US$ m) 1,301 (3,359) (1,877) 2,169 1,984<br />

% of Sales 23.9% (50.3%) (19.0%) 15.3% 11.5%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 1,236 2,663 2,343 1,874 1,871<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 1,301 (3,236) (1,877) 2,169 1,984<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 2,537 (573) 466 4,042 3,855<br />

Principal Repayments 2,677 15 283 3,185 3,602<br />

Interest Payments 464 584 1,125 1,222 1,139<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 3,141 599 1,408 4,407 4,741<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.8x (1.0x) 0.3x 0.9x 0.8x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In US$ m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 2,343 11.6%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 9,438 46.7%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 11,781 58.3%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 750 3.7%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 12,531 62.0%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 20,215 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(US$ m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 15,620 16,487 16,487<br />

Preferred Stock 163 163 163<br />

Debt 8,338 11,021 10,293<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

5.0x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

1.5x<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EI444518 Corp Callable Company Guarantee US$ 2,040.0 2,040.0 100.00 11-Jan-2010 11-Jan-2015 7.00% 2<br />

EI857088 Corp Callable Company Guarantee US$ 1,500.0 1,500.0 100.00 25-Oct-2011 01-Nov-2019 8.25% 2<br />

EI497164 Corp Callable Company Guarantee US$ 600.0 600.0 100.00 02-Jan-2010 02-Jan-2016 6.38% 2<br />

158 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (A$)<br />

34.6%<br />

0.7%<br />

64.8%<br />

39.8%<br />

0.6%<br />

59.6%<br />

38.2%<br />

0.6%<br />

61.2%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Preferred Stock Debt<br />

4.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.0x<br />

(0.5x)<br />

(1.0x)<br />

(1.5x)<br />

7.52<br />

6.52<br />

5.52<br />

4.52<br />

3.52<br />

0.8x<br />

(1.0x)<br />

0.3x<br />

0.9x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

2.52<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Fortescue Metals Group


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (US$ m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 5,442 6,681 9,878 14,210 17,327<br />

Operating Expenses (2,678) (3,852) (5,859) (8,296) (9,855)<br />

EBITDA 2,764 2,829 4,020 5,914 7,472<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (177) (267) (371) (567) (702)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 2,587 2,562 3,649 5,347 6,770<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (433) (486) (1,087) (1,188) (1,116)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) (822) 187 28 23 27<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 1,332 2,263 2,590 4,182 5,682<br />

Taxes on Profit (313) (704) (777) (1,254) (1,705)<br />

Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 1,019 1,559 1,813 2,927 3,977<br />

Balance Sheet (US$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 5,093 11,357 15,519 17,811 19,851<br />

Long-term Investments 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Associates 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 21 19 67 114 158<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 5,131 11,413 15,623 17,962 20,047<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 833 1,307 1,708 1,795 2,669<br />

Total Current Assets 3,496 3,650 3,582 3,666 3,450<br />

Total Assets 8,627 15,063 19,205 21,628 23,497<br />

Shareholders' Equity 2,434 3,762 5,276 7,721 11,042<br />

Total Equity 2,588 3,925 5,440 7,884 11,205<br />

Long Term Debt 4,504 8,055 9,635 8,907 7,262<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 4,921 9,001 10,680 10,108 8,662<br />

Total Current Liabilities 1,118 2,137 3,086 3,636 3,630<br />

Total Liabilities 6,039 11,138 13,766 13,744 12,292<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 8,627 15,063 19,205 21,628 23,497<br />

Cash Flow Statement (US$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 1,332 2,263 2,590 4,182 5,682<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 177 267 371 567 702<br />

Tax Paid (313) (827) (1,780) (2,447) (3,284)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (15) (92) (205) 580 (786)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 2,778 2,685 2,853 5,356 5,171<br />

Capital Expenditure (1,477) (6,044) (4,731) (3,187) (3,187)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (26) 1 138 259 367<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (1,481) (5,990) (4,562) (2,907) (2,804)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 761 3,623 2,717 (685) (1,602)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 2 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (96) (251) (299) (483) (656)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 191 2,788 1,240 (2,451) (3,457)<br />

Change in Cash 1,488 (517) (469) (3) (1,089)<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 50.8% 42.3% 40.7% 41.6% 43.1%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 47.5% 38.3% 36.9% 37.6% 39.1%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 18.7% 23.3% 18.4% 20.6% 23.0%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 52.1% 50.3% 40.1% 45.0% 42.4%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 37.7% 22.1% 21.5% 26.4% 30.1%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 46.0% 22.2% 19.3% 22.6% 25.0%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 182.3% 212.4% 202.6% 130.6% 77.2%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 79.4% 152.7% 168.1% 106.8% 70.2%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 354.8% 382.3% 379.1% 314.2% 240.5%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.7x 4.7x 2.6x 1.0x 1.2x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 5.6x 4.4x 3.2x 4.4x 5.9x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 238.2% 109.6% 60.7% 51.5% 21.5%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 312.7% 170.8% 116.1% 100.8% 95.1%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 275.4% 141.9% 87.1% 74.0% 48.7%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

159 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Foxconn International Holdings Ltd. (2038 HK)<br />

Sector: Information Technology Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Technology Hardware & Equipment Debt Service Cover (x) -<br />

Country: Hong Kong<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 19.8%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.8x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Foxconn International Holdings Ltd. (FIH) was incorporated in the Cayman Islands as an exempted<br />

company with limited liability in the year 2000. The company is principally engaged as a vertically<br />

integrated manufacturing services provider for handset industry worldwide. It provides a full range of<br />

manufacturing services related to handsets and wireless communication devices, including design and<br />

manufacturing of precision tooling and molds, product development, manufacturing of components,<br />

modules and systems, assembly and integration, and after-sales services. The Company primarily<br />

derives its revenue from handset contract manufacturing and therefore does not provide any product<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (US$ '000) 1,624,317 1,922,142 2,389,624 2,499,389 2,735,926<br />

Gross Debt (US$ '000) 862,213 483,245 696,649 739,330 747,866<br />

Interest Expense (US$ '000) (5,882) (10,988) (10,029) (12,278) (12,716)<br />

EBIT (US$ '000) (140,802) (61,914) (285,558) (97,905) (65,026)<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 24.0% 12.9% 19.8% 20.9% 20.9%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 138.2% 187.8% 195.9% 184.5% 193.9%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 4.2x 3.6x - 4.7x 4.0x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.0x 0.0x - 0.0x 0.0x<br />

Interest Cover (x) - - - - -<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (US$ '000) 6,626,004 6,354,417 5,441,060 5,616,245 5,957,397<br />

% Change (YoY) (8.1%) (4.1%) (14.4%) 3.2% 6.1%<br />

EBITDA (US$ '000) 146,193 185,392 (32,725) 152,708 187,366<br />

% of Sales 2.2% 2.9% (0.6%) 2.7% 3.1%<br />

Net Income (US$ '000) (218,317) 72,844 (241,954) 12,191 40,692<br />

% of Sales (3.3%) 1.1% (4.4%) 0.2% 0.7%<br />

Free Cash Flow (US$ '000) (360,317) 309,803 230,470 43,866 204,911<br />

% of Sales (5.4%) 4.9% 4.2% 0.8% 3.4%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 1,361,530 1,624,317 1,922,142 2,389,624 2,499,389<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (360,317) 309,803 230,470 43,866 204,911<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 1,001,213 1,934,120 2,152,612 2,433,490 2,704,300<br />

Principal Repayments 3,517,233 5,107,705 2,786,596 2,957,319 2,991,464<br />

Interest Payments 5,882 10,988 10,029 12,278 12,716<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 3,523,115 5,118,693 2,796,625 2,969,597 3,004,179<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.3x 0.4x 0.8x 0.8x 0.9x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In US$ '000)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 1,922,142 13.0%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 576,260 3.9%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 2,498,402 16.9%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 2,498,402 16.9%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 14,793,976 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

160 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

12.0% 16.6% 17.3%<br />

88.0% 83.4% 82.7%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(US$ '000) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 3,542,101 3,504,997 3,542,101<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 483,245 696,649 739,330<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

1<br />

0.0x<br />

1<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

1<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0<br />

0.0x<br />

0<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

0.9x<br />

0.8x<br />

0.7x<br />

0.6x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.8x<br />

0.8x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.3x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.1x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.3x<br />

0.4x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

6.93<br />

5.93<br />

4.93<br />

3.93<br />

2.93<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

1.93<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Foxconn International Holdings Ltd.<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (US$ '000) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 6,626,004 6,354,417 5,441,060 5,616,245 5,957,397<br />

Operating Expenses (6,555,115) (6,236,867) (5,542,983) (5,534,120) (5,842,025)<br />

EBITDA 146,193 185,392 (32,725) 152,708 187,366<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (286,995) (247,306) (252,834) (250,612) (252,392)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) (140,802) (61,914) (285,558) (97,905) (65,026)<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 12,207 27,439 37,400 41,502 44,873<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 84,379 171,627 70,147 72,078 75,568<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 1,416 5,529 1,364 1,405 1,448<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax (176,129) 130,001 (234,139) 15,858 55,648<br />

Taxes on Profit (43,638) (54,869) (4,239) (3,965) (13,912)<br />

Minority Interests 1,450 (2,288) (3,576) 297 (1,043)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) (218,317) 72,844 (241,954) 12,191 40,692<br />

Balance Sheet (US$ '000)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 1,664,223 1,424,190 1,174,815 1,001,965 871,455<br />

Long-term Investments 91 90 90 90 90<br />

Associates 46,814 45,481 46,845 48,251 49,698<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 1,997,068 1,606,501 1,340,134 1,166,487 1,041,238<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 2,395,964 2,082,977 1,590,738 1,981,790 1,898,032<br />

Total Current Assets 4,020,281 4,005,119 3,980,362 4,481,179 4,633,958<br />

Total Assets 6,017,349 5,611,620 5,320,496 5,647,666 5,675,196<br />

Shareholders' Equity 3,547,027 3,740,009 3,498,055 3,510,246 3,550,939<br />

Total Equity 3,593,027 3,758,694 3,520,316 3,532,210 3,573,945<br />

Long Term Debt 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 57,234 44,630 35,832 35,832 35,832<br />

Total Current Liabilities 2,367,088 1,808,296 1,764,348 2,079,624 2,065,419<br />

Total Liabilities 2,424,322 1,852,926 1,800,180 2,115,456 2,101,251<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 6,017,349 5,611,620 5,320,496 5,647,666 5,675,196<br />

Cash Flow Statement (US$ '000)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) (176,129) 130,001 (234,139) 15,858 55,648<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 286,995 247,306 252,834 250,612 252,392<br />

Tax Paid (21,545) (33,821) (25,126) (18,904) (17,436)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (380,722) 157,363 255,774 (103,517) 64,541<br />

Cash Flow from Operations (106,512) 487,501 305,470 143,866 354,911<br />

Capital Expenditure (253,805) (177,698) (75,000) (100,000) (150,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 52,800 337,428 23,607 23,219 23,089<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (316,839) 14,221 (51,393) (76,781) (126,911)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 505,812 (385,552) 213,404 42,681 8,536<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 26,470 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 541,562 (385,552) 213,404 42,681 8,536<br />

Change in Cash 118,211 116,170 467,482 109,765 236,537<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 2.2% 2.9% (0.6%) 2.7% 3.1%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) (2.1%) (1.0%) (5.2%) (1.7%) (1.1%)<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) (3.3%) 1.1% (4.4%) 0.2% 0.7%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) (6.1%) 2.0% (6.7%) 0.3% 1.2%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) (2.1%) (0.4%) (4.4%) (0.8%) (0.1%)<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) (5.2%) (1.4%) (13.8%) (4.1%) (2.9%)<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 24.0% 12.9% 19.8% 20.9% 20.9%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 163.7% 159.6% 151.0% 156.5% 160.4%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.0x 0.0x - 0.0x 0.0x<br />

Interest Cover (x) - - - - -<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 57.3% 83.6% 112.2% 100.5% 112.6%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 169.8% 221.5% 225.6% 215.5% 224.4%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 138.2% 187.8% 195.9% 184.5% 193.9%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

161 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


GAIL (India) Limited (GAIL IN)<br />

Sector: Utilities Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Utilities<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 3.1x<br />

Country: India<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 49.0%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) (0.3x)<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

GAIL (India) Limited is the largest natural gas transmission & marketing company in India with a market<br />

share in excess of 70%. The company currently owns and operates natural gas pipeline infrastructure in<br />

excess of 8,000 km with a total transmission capacity of more than 170 Mmscmd.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Mar) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Rs m) 27,803 15,855 13,555 28,223 64,349<br />

Gross Debt (Rs m) 69,041 115,056 145,112 165,991 167,270<br />

Interest Expense (Rs m) (4,848) (7,723) (5,596) (7,492) (10,287)<br />

EBIT (Rs m) 56,940 62,398 72,977 80,691 110,910<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 31.7% 44.4% 49.0% 49.3% 42.5%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 92.4% 77.3% 79.8% 80.3% 103.9%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.9x 1.3x 1.5x 1.6x 1.3x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 4.6x 4.9x 3.1x 3.3x 3.5x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 11.7x 8.1x 13.0x 10.8x 10.8x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (Rs m) 351,067 440,578 491,707 532,008 622,120<br />

% Change (YoY) 29.9% 25.5% 11.6% 8.2% 16.9%<br />

EBITDA (Rs m) 65,183 72,959 85,651 97,157 130,012<br />

% of Sales 18.6% 16.6% 17.4% 18.3% 20.9%<br />

Net Income (Rs m) 40,210 44,436 50,202 54,555 73,838<br />

% of Sales 11.5% 10.1% 10.2% 10.3% 11.9%<br />

Free Cash Flow (Rs m) (26,375) (47,369) (20,619) 7,864 51,303<br />

% of Sales (7.5%) (10.8%) (4.2%) 1.5% 8.2%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 45,486 25,844 14,462 12,162 26,830<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (26,375) (47,369) (20,619) 7,864 51,303<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 19,112 (21,525) (6,156) 20,026 78,133<br />

Principal Repayments 6,500 4,911 14,945 15,121 18,721<br />

Interest Payments 4,848 7,723 5,596 7,492 10,287<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 11,348 12,634 20,540 22,613 29,008<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.7x (1.7x) (0.3x) 0.9x 2.7x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In Rs m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 14,462 11.1%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 175,070 133.9%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 189,532 145.0%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 189,532 145.0%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 130,756 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

19.4% 23.9% 26.4%<br />

80.6% 76.1% 73.6%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(Rs m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 477,265 462,677 462,677<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 115,056 145,112 165,991<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

6.0x<br />

14.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

12.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

2.0x 1.7x<br />

1.5x<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EJ232769 Corp At Maturity Secured Rs 1,875.0 1,875.0 100.00 11-Jun-2012 11-Jun-2017 9.14% 1<br />

EJ232774 Corp Callable Secured Rs 1,875.0 1,875.0 100.00 11-Jun-2012 11-Jun-2018 9.14% 1<br />

EJ232779 Corp Callable Secured Rs 1,875.0 1,875.0 100.00 11-Jun-2012 11-Jun-2019 9.14% 1<br />

162 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (Rs)<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.0x<br />

(0.5x)<br />

(1.0x)<br />

(1.5x)<br />

(2.0x)<br />

464<br />

414<br />

364<br />

314<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

(0.3x)<br />

(1.7x)<br />

0.9x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

264<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

GAIL (India) Limited


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (Rs m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 351,067 440,578 491,707 532,008 622,120<br />

Operating Expenses (286,734) (368,862) (407,285) (436,180) (493,663)<br />

EBITDA 65,183 72,959 85,651 97,157 130,012<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (8,243) (10,561) (12,674) (16,466) (19,101)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 56,940 62,398 72,977 80,691 110,910<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (2,197) (954) (3,347) (4,935) (6,648)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 3,247 2,104 2,463 2,408 2,347<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 57,990 63,548 72,092 78,164 106,609<br />

Taxes on Profit (18,181) (19,540) (22,358) (24,125) (33,341)<br />

Minority Interests 401 428 468 517 570<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 40,210 44,436 50,202 54,555 73,838<br />

Balance Sheet (Rs m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 157,349 198,461 314,791 397,230 437,625<br />

Long-term Investments 6,249 6,899 6,899 6,899 6,899<br />

Associates 4,154 4,548 5,017 5,533 6,103<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 2,273 3,112 3,615 4,083 4,217<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 293,802 390,787 454,669 513,171 531,764<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 79,916 103,698 116,404 114,625 134,550<br />

Total Current Assets 107,718 119,554 129,959 142,848 198,899<br />

Total Assets 401,520 510,341 584,629 656,019 730,663<br />

Shareholders' Equity 212,139 249,132 286,031 326,674 383,899<br />

Total Equity 217,611 258,952 295,851 336,494 393,719<br />

Long Term Debt 58,238 93,410 123,289 140,568 139,847<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 78,845 119,087 148,966 166,245 165,524<br />

Total Current Liabilities 105,064 132,302 139,812 153,280 171,420<br />

Total Liabilities 183,909 251,389 288,778 319,525 336,944<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 401,520 510,341 584,629 656,019 730,663<br />

Cash Flow Statement (Rs m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 57,990 63,548 72,092 78,164 106,609<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 8,243 10,561 12,674 16,466 19,101<br />

Tax Paid (16,300) (15,062) (20,033) (21,616) (29,874)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (5,950) (14,175) (9,023) 8,784 (9,547)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 46,083 51,113 57,040 84,530 91,135<br />

Capital Expenditure (72,458) (98,482) (77,658) (76,666) (39,832)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (1,679) 145 1,570 2,214 2,708<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (69,577) (93,508) (71,689) (69,804) (31,462)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 14,909 46,015 30,055 20,879 1,279<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (11,093) (12,532) (12,111) (13,445) (14,539)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 4,632 31,937 12,349 (58) (23,548)<br />

Change in Cash (18,862) (10,459) (2,300) 14,668 36,126<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 18.6% 16.6% 17.4% 18.3% 20.9%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 16.2% 14.2% 14.8% 15.2% 17.8%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 11.5% 10.1% 10.2% 10.3% 11.9%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 20.6% 19.3% 18.8% 17.8% 20.8%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 15.3% 14.1% 13.6% 13.3% 16.4%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 16.9% 13.5% 12.4% 12.0% 15.3%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 31.7% 44.4% 49.0% 49.3% 42.5%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 19.9% 38.8% 44.9% 41.4% 26.5%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 194.9% 197.7% 204.6% 202.5% 195.1%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 4.6x 4.9x 3.1x 3.3x 3.5x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 11.7x 8.1x 13.0x 10.8x 10.8x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 24.6% 10.9% 8.7% 17.5% 36.7%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 102.5% 90.4% 93.0% 93.2% 116.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 92.4% 77.3% 79.8% 80.3% 103.9%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

163 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Gold Fields Limited (GFI SJ)<br />

Sector: Materials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Materials<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 2.6x<br />

Country: South Africa<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 22.2%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.1x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Gold Fields is engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of gold properties.<br />

The company was founded in 1968 and is currently ranked as the world’s fourth largest producer of gold<br />

with an annualised production of 3.5 million ounces (on at attributable basis). It has total attributable gold<br />

equivalent mineral reserves of 76.7 million ounces and Mineral Resources of 225.4 million ounces.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (ZAR m) 5,464 6,049 2,218 9,246 18,520<br />

Gross Debt (ZAR m) 9,438 15,509 12,022 11,501 11,521<br />

Interest Expense (ZAR m) (502) (449) (573) (573) (573)<br />

EBIT (ZAR m) 8,538 14,375 13,073 19,259 18,572<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 20.2% 32.3% 22.2% 18.0% 15.7%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 120.0% 84.9% 72.8% 147.0% 237.9%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.7x 0.6x 0.7x 0.4x 0.4x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.4x 2.5x 2.6x 9.7x 11.6x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 17.0x 32.0x 22.8x 33.6x 32.4x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (ZAR m) 34,391 41,877 44,781 51,605 54,966<br />

% Change (YoY) 18.2% 21.8% 6.9% 15.2% 6.5%<br />

EBITDA (ZAR m) 13,375 20,031 19,407 26,487 26,341<br />

% of Sales 38.9% 47.8% 43.3% 51.3% 47.9%<br />

Net Income (ZAR m) 1,139 7,027 7,195 11,200 10,877<br />

% of Sales 3.3% 16.8% 16.1% 21.7% 19.8%<br />

Free Cash Flow (ZAR m) 2,529 4,010 (303) 7,608 9,345<br />

% of Sales 7.4% 9.6% (0.7%) 14.7% 17.0%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 2,882 5,464 6,049 2,218 9,246<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2,529 4,010 (303) 7,608 9,345<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 5,411 9,474 5,746 9,827 18,591<br />

Principal Repayments 14,420 4,796 4,687 1,521 1,180<br />

Interest Payments 502 449 573 573 573<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 14,921 5,245 5,260 2,094 1,753<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.4x 1.8x 1.1x 4.7x 10.6x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In ZAR m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 6,049 36.5%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 38,837 234.5%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 44,886 271.0%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 7,220 43.6%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 52,106 314.6%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 16,563 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

14.7% 13.8% 13.0%<br />

85.3% 86.2% 87.0%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(ZAR m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 90,177 75,088 76,998<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 15,509 12,022 11,501<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

12.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

35.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

5.0x<br />

4.5x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.5x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.5x<br />

4.7x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.8x<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

1.1x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.4x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EI423911 Corp Callable Company Guarantee US$ 1,000.0 1,000.0 99.30 10-Jul-2010 10-Jul-2020 4.88% 2<br />

164 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (ZAr)<br />

16,160<br />

14,160<br />

12,160<br />

10,160<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

8,160<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Gold Fields Limited


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (ZAR m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 34,391 41,877 44,781 51,605 54,966<br />

Operating Expenses (21,016) (21,846) (25,374) (25,118) (28,625)<br />

EBITDA 13,375 20,031 19,407 26,487 26,341<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (4,837) (5,656) (6,334) (7,228) (7,768)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 8,538 14,375 13,073 19,259 18,572<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (237) (270) (268) (183) 230<br />

Other Income/(Expense) (3,547) (1,552) (1,164) (1,342) (1,429)<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits (116) 29 15 16 17<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 4,197 12,141 11,628 17,723 17,365<br />

Taxes on Profit (2,266) (4,335) (3,652) (5,308) (5,308)<br />

Minority Interests (792) (780) (781) (1,215) (1,180)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 1,139 7,027 7,195 11,200 10,877<br />

Balance Sheet (ZAR m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 53,250 62,683 70,297 72,015 73,191<br />

Long-term Investments 982 671 642 615 589<br />

Associates 96 150 159 168 178<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 4,459 4,459 4,459 4,459 4,459<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 60,678 70,206 77,937 79,778 81,082<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 5,672 8,027 7,180 8,801 8,378<br />

Total Current Assets 11,136 14,076 9,398 18,047 26,898<br />

Total Assets 71,814 84,282 87,335 97,824 107,980<br />

Shareholders' Equity 43,542 46,887 52,470 61,161 69,601<br />

Total Equity 46,623 48,062 54,260 63,914 73,178<br />

Long Term Debt 7,672 11,062 10,941 11,001 11,521<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 17,909 24,157 24,200 24,433 25,135<br />

Total Current Liabilities 7,283 12,064 8,874 9,478 9,667<br />

Total Liabilities 25,192 36,221 33,075 33,911 34,802<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 71,814 84,282 87,335 97,824 107,980<br />

Cash Flow Statement (ZAR m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 4,197 12,141 11,628 17,723 17,365<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 4,837 5,656 6,334 7,228 7,768<br />

Tax Paid (1,492) (2,463) (3,434) (4,633) (5,065)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 1,522 (259) 575 (1,379) 584<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 11,198 14,213 13,697 16,608 18,345<br />

Capital Expenditure (8,669) (10,203) (14,000) (9,000) (9,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 68 (7,637) 52 54 56<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (8,789) (17,957) (13,994) (8,987) (8,981)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 1,402 3,616 (3,534) (593) (90)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 57 47 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 1,459 3,663 (3,534) (593) (90)<br />

Change in Cash 3,867 (80) (3,831) 7,028 9,274<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 38.9% 47.8% 43.3% 51.3% 47.9%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 24.8% 34.3% 29.2% 37.3% 33.8%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 3.3% 16.8% 16.1% 21.7% 19.8%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 2.7% 15.5% 14.5% 19.7% 16.6%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 12.8% 18.6% 15.6% 21.2% 18.8%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 6.9% 14.3% 12.3% 17.4% 16.3%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 20.2% 32.3% 22.2% 18.0% 15.7%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 8.5% 19.7% 18.1% 3.5% -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 163.7% 172.6% 172.7% 162.9% 157.4%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.4x 2.5x 2.6x 9.7x 11.6x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 17.0x 32.0x 22.8x 33.6x 32.4x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 75.0% 50.1% 25.0% 97.6% 191.6%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 152.9% 116.7% 105.9% 190.4% 278.2%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 120.0% 84.9% 72.8% 147.0% 237.9%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

165 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


GOME Electrical Appliances Holdings Ltd. (493 HK)<br />

Sector: Consumer Discretionary Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Retailing<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) -<br />

Country: Hong Kong<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 0.0%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 4.2x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Gome Electrical Appliances Holdings Limited (Gome), through its subsidiaries, is engaged in the<br />

operations and management of electrical appliances and consumer electronic product’s retail stores in<br />

Mainland China. Its products include audiovisual products, air-conditioners, refrigerator and washing<br />

machines, telecommunication products, small white appliances, informational technologies and digital<br />

products.Its main portion of the revenue comes from audiovisual products.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (RMB '000) 12,500,580 10,360,496 11,106,470 12,669,581 13,271,438<br />

Gross Debt (RMB '000) 2,044,045 2,111,610 500 545 594<br />

Interest Expense (RMB '000) (172,524) (74,207) (70,716) 0 0<br />

EBIT (RMB '000) 2,721,941 2,323,828 (897,411) (3,287) 570,445<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 13.9% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 78.8% 68.1% 93.0% 82.5% 85.4%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 1.3x 0.8x - 0.0x 0.0x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.8x 12.9x - - -<br />

Interest Cover (x) 15.8x 31.3x - - -<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (RMB '000) 50,910,145 59,820,789 50,388,929 53,121,631 59,698,707<br />

% Change (YoY) 19.3% 17.5% (15.8%) 5.4% 12.4%<br />

EBITDA (RMB '000) 3,063,526 2,730,267 (546,238) 459,876 1,041,925<br />

% of Sales 6.0% 4.6% (1.1%) 0.9% 1.7%<br />

Net Income (RMB '000) 1,961,654 1,839,867 (769,399) 242,233 664,652<br />

% of Sales 3.9% 3.1% (1.5%) 0.5% 1.1%<br />

Free Cash Flow (RMB '000) 3,365,892 (478,179) (627,759) 1,466,636 500,649<br />

% of Sales 6.6% (0.8%) (1.2%) 2.8% 0.8%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 14,827,038 12,500,580 10,360,496 11,106,470 12,669,581<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 3,365,892 (478,179) (627,759) 1,466,636 500,649<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 18,192,930 12,022,401 9,732,737 12,573,106 13,170,230<br />

Principal Repayments 3,035,508 100,000 2,230,358 0 0<br />

Interest Payments 172,524 74,207 70,716 0 0<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 3,208,032 174,207 2,301,074 0 0<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 5.7x 69.0x 4.2x - -<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In RMB '000)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 10,360,496 450.2%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 5,934,103 257.9%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 16,294,599 708.1%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 16,294,599 708.1%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 2,301,074 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

92.1% 100.0% 100.0%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity<br />

(RMB '000) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 24,614,963 12,479,748 14,394,251<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 2,111,610 500 545<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

14.0x<br />

35.0x<br />

12.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

80.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

5.7x<br />

4.2x<br />

0<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EH986607 Corp Convertible/Callable/Puttable Senior Unsecured RMB 2,357.2 0.5 100.00 25-Sep-2009 25-Sep-2014 3.00% 2<br />

166 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

70.0x<br />

60.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

2.49<br />

1.99<br />

1.49<br />

0.99<br />

69.0x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

0.49<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

GOME Electrical Appliances Holdings Ltd.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (RMB '000) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 50,910,145 59,820,789 50,388,929 53,121,631 59,698,707<br />

Operating Expenses (51,288,247) (60,392,604) (52,842,049 (54,833,74 (61,171,101)<br />

EBITDA 3,063,526 2,730,267 (546,238) 459,876 1,041,925<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (341,585) (406,439) (351,173) (463,163) (471,480)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 2,721,941 2,323,828 (897,411) (3,287) 570,445<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 327,770 396,800 401,071 356,641 389,115<br />

Other Income/(Expense) (523,892) (245,630) (189,964) (45) (49)<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 2,509,532 2,474,500 (686,304) 353,309 959,511<br />

Taxes on Profit (547,878) (673,154) (150,000) (98,327) (259,878)<br />

Minority Interests 0 38,521 66,904 (12,749) (34,982)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 1,961,654 1,839,867 (769,399) 242,233 664,652<br />

Balance Sheet (RMB '000)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 3,497,682 3,872,626 4,203,245 4,204,264 4,096,229<br />

Long-term Investments 4,606,321 4,661,026 1,113,425 1,161,006 1,203,802<br />

Associates 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 4,131,138 4,139,431 4,130,847 4,122,941 4,115,659<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 12,720,919 13,144,661 9,917,503 9,956,688 9,882,823<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 10,995,763 13,722,311 9,827,435 12,565,884 12,982,589<br />

Total Current Assets 23,496,343 24,082,807 20,933,905 25,235,466 26,254,027<br />

Total Assets 36,217,262 37,227,468 30,851,408 35,192,153 36,136,850<br />

Shareholders' Equity 14,735,187 15,948,763 15,179,364 15,370,727 15,895,802<br />

Total Equity 14,735,187 15,918,294 15,081,990 15,286,103 15,846,159<br />

Long Term Debt 1,814,069 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 1,925,217 92,961 92,961 92,961 92,961<br />

Total Current Liabilities 19,556,858 21,216,213 15,676,457 19,813,089 20,197,730<br />

Total Liabilities 21,482,075 21,309,174 15,769,418 19,906,050 20,290,691<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 36,217,262 37,227,468 30,851,408 35,192,153 36,136,850<br />

Cash Flow Statement (RMB '000)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 2,509,532 2,474,500 (686,304) 353,309 959,511<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 341,585 406,439 351,173 463,163 471,480<br />

Tax Paid (553,081) (787,145) (378,770) (199,006) (238,025)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 1,110,039 (1,040,046) 696,177 1,499,994 (52,790)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 3,873,179 383,271 172,241 2,066,636 1,000,649<br />

Capital Expenditure (507,287) (861,450) (800,000) (600,000) (500,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (45,648) 125,257 3,674,807 96,475 101,207<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (552,935) (736,193) 2,874,807 (503,525) (398,793)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (2,935,508) (100,000) (2,230,358) 0 0<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 6,067 281,666 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid 0 (964,758) 0 (50,869) (139,577)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (3,101,965) 107,459 (2,301,074) 0 0<br />

Change in Cash 218,279 (245,463) 745,974 1,563,112 601,856<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 6.0% 4.6% (1.1%) 0.9% 1.7%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 5.3% 3.9% (1.8%) 0.0% 1.0%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 3.9% 3.1% (1.5%) 0.5% 1.1%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 14.8% 12.0% (4.9%) 1.6% 4.3%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 8.5% 7.4% (1.5%) 1.1% 2.7%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) - 117.3% (29.6%) (0.1%) 27.6%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 13.9% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 271.2% 239.4% 218.7% 216.2% 228.1%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.8x 12.9x - - -<br />

Interest Cover (x) 15.8x 31.3x - - -<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 31.9% 28.1% 42.9% 41.8% 44.0%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 120.1% 113.5% 133.5% 127.4% 130.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 78.8% 68.1% 93.0% 82.5% 85.4%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

167 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Grasim Industries Limited (GRASIM IN)<br />

Sector: Materials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Materials<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 3.5x<br />

Country: India<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 42.4%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 2.0x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Grasim Industries Limited, a flagship company of the Aditya Birla Group, ranks among India's largest<br />

private sector companies. Originally a textile manufacturer, The company has successfully diversified<br />

into VSF, cement and chemicals. Its core businesses are VSF and cement, which contribute to over 90%<br />

of its revenues and operating profits. The company is the world’s largest producer of VSF, world’s eighth<br />

largest producer of cement and second largest producer of caustic soda in India. In cement, Grasim<br />

operates through its subsidiary UltraTech Cement Limited which has a capacity of 52 million tonnes and<br />

is a leading player in India with 18% market share.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Mar) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Rs m) 70,178 53,473 67,685 98,495 129,785<br />

Gross Debt (Rs m) 67,827 70,358 109,691 118,358 92,024<br />

Interest Expense (Rs m) (4,183) (3,752) (3,584) (6,519) (6,331)<br />

EBIT (Rs m) 38,571 44,205 54,139 61,891 67,872<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 35.8% 31.5% 42.4% 39.4% 26.6%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 141.4% 134.1% 136.6% 191.9% 251.1%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 1.2x 1.2x 1.4x 1.5x 1.3x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 4.2x 2.4x 3.5x 2.5x 1.8x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 9.2x 11.8x 15.1x 9.5x 10.7x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (Rs m) 213,183 249,878 283,238 322,991 355,559<br />

% Change (YoY) 6.9% 17.2% 13.4% 14.0% 10.1%<br />

EBITDA (Rs m) 49,954 55,749 66,357 75,423 82,129<br />

% of Sales 23.4% 22.3% 23.4% 23.4% 23.1%<br />

Net Income (Rs m) 22,790 26,475 29,047 33,401 37,133<br />

% of Sales 10.7% 10.6% 10.3% 10.3% 10.4%<br />

Free Cash Flow (Rs m) 18,730 (1,306) (25,139) 23,752 58,482<br />

% of Sales 8.8% (0.5%) (8.9%) 7.4% 16.4%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 57,834 70,178 53,473 67,685 98,495<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 18,730 (1,306) (25,139) 23,752 58,482<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 76,564 68,872 28,334 91,437 156,978<br />

Principal Repayments 5,700 14,513 10,667 16,333 26,333<br />

Interest Payments 4,183 3,752 3,584 6,519 6,331<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 9,883 18,265 14,250 22,852 32,664<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 7.7x 3.8x 2.0x 4.0x 4.8x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In Rs m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 53,473 37.2%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 177,857 123.7%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 231,329 160.9%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 231,329 160.9%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 143,746 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

168 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

22.6% 27.3% 28.8%<br />

77.4% 72.7% 71.2%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(Rs m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 240,965 292,826 292,826<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 70,358 109,691 118,358<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

4.5x<br />

16.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

14.0x<br />

3.5x<br />

12.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.5x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

10.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

9.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

7.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

7.7x<br />

5.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.8x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

2011A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (Rs)<br />

3,906<br />

3,406<br />

2,906<br />

2,406<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

1,906<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Grasim Industries Limited<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (Rs m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 213,183 249,878 283,238 322,991 355,559<br />

Operating Expenses (165,548) (196,694) (219,098) (250,819) (277,009)<br />

EBITDA 49,954 55,749 66,357 75,423 82,129<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (11,384) (11,544) (12,218) (13,532) (14,258)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 38,571 44,205 54,139 61,891 67,872<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (4,068) (3,136) (3,584) (6,519) (6,331)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 3,600 7,438 4,525 7,856 9,022<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 38,494 48,522 55,135 63,287 70,623<br />

Taxes on Profit (9,542) (13,208) (17,305) (20,011) (22,447)<br />

Minority Interests (6,600) (9,471) (9,682) (11,134) (12,378)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 438 632 899 1,258 1,335<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 22,790 26,475 29,047 33,401 37,133<br />

Balance Sheet (Rs m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 143,898 150,088 179,104 195,540 197,979<br />

Long-term Investments 12,000 28,537 29,964 31,777 33,700<br />

Associates 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 24,610 25,410 25,426 25,444 25,463<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 196,105 249,305 314,044 317,631 305,597<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 53,930 62,567 60,284 78,187 75,563<br />

Total Current Assets 124,108 116,039 127,969 176,682 205,348<br />

Total Assets 320,213 365,344 442,013 494,313 510,945<br />

Shareholders' Equity 145,733 170,687 196,829 226,889 260,309<br />

Total Equity 189,247 223,020 258,845 300,039 345,836<br />

Long Term Debt 41,148 57,009 93,009 100,009 77,009<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 62,424 78,699 114,699 121,699 98,699<br />

Total Current Liabilities 68,542 63,625 68,470 72,576 66,410<br />

Total Liabilities 130,966 142,324 183,168 194,274 165,109<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 320,213 365,344 442,013 494,313 510,945<br />

Cash Flow Statement (Rs m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 38,494 48,522 55,135 63,287 70,623<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 11,384 11,544 12,218 13,532 14,258<br />

Tax Paid (10,209) (11,125) (17,675) (19,661) (22,029)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (4,934) (2,462) 5,638 (14,906) 166<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 35,449 43,073 55,810 44,921 64,789<br />

Capital Expenditure (16,719) (44,379) (80,949) (21,169) (6,307)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (9,502) 5,411 (9,107) (11,335) (10,709)<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (32,100) (36,410) (87,721) (29,527) (13,409)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 4,985 (177) 39,333 8,667 (26,333)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 37 32 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (3,250) (2,499) (3,152) (2,910) (3,056)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (2,951) (6,798) 32,061 (1,297) (36,289)<br />

Change in Cash 398 (135) 151 14,097 15,091<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 23.4% 22.3% 23.4% 23.4% 23.1%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 18.1% 17.7% 19.1% 19.2% 19.1%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 10.7% 10.6% 10.3% 10.3% 10.4%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 16.8% 16.7% 15.8% 15.8% 15.2%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 13.1% 13.2% 13.7% 13.5% 13.8%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 15.9% 15.0% 14.1% 14.1% 15.3%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 35.8% 31.5% 42.4% 39.4% 26.6%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 34.3% 30.1% 41.1% 33.6% 17.2%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 220.7% 216.7% 219.7% 221.0% 206.3%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 4.2x 2.4x 3.5x 2.5x 1.8x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 9.2x 11.8x 15.1x 9.5x 10.7x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 4.2% 5.1% 5.0% 24.1% 49.1%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 181.1% 182.4% 186.9% 243.4% 309.2%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 141.4% 134.1% 136.6% 191.9% 251.1%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

169 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Great Wall Motor Company Limited - H Share (2333 HK)<br />

Sector: Consumer Discretionary Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Automobiles & Components<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) -<br />

Country: Hong Kong<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 0.0%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) -<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Great Wall Motor Company Limited manufactures and sells automobiles and automotive parts and<br />

components. Its principal products are pick-up trucks, SUVs and sedans. It is also engaged in the<br />

production and sale of major automotive parts and components used in the production of pick-up trucks,<br />

SUVs and sedans. The company was incorporated in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in 1994. It is<br />

a subsidiary of Baoding Innovation Great Wall Asset Management Company Limited (Innovation GW)<br />

and is one of China’s largest non-government controlled automakers.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (RMB '000) 3,094,616 7,108,264 7,777,869 9,223,860 11,133,823<br />

Gross Debt (RMB '000) 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Interest Expense (RMB '000) (515) (4,060) 0 0 0<br />

EBIT (RMB '000) 2,932,738 3,966,768 5,893,536 6,385,789 6,795,412<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 107.0% 119.6% 124.5% 129.5% 137.4%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.0x - - - -<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 42.5x 21.5x - - -<br />

Interest Cover (x) 5,699.5x 977.1x - - -<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (RMB '000) 22,986,072 30,089,477 38,900,234 44,682,676 49,609,186<br />

% Change (YoY) 85.4% 30.9% 29.3% 14.9% 11.0%<br />

EBITDA (RMB '000) 3,482,160 4,668,746 6,758,513 7,506,363 8,192,204<br />

% of Sales 15.1% 15.5% 17.4% 16.8% 16.5%<br />

Net Income (RMB '000) 2,700,735 3,426,195 4,860,083 5,274,920 5,592,660<br />

% of Sales 11.7% 11.4% 12.5% 11.8% 11.3%<br />

Free Cash Flow (RMB '000) (26,957) 689,900 1,552,344 2,441,027 2,989,133<br />

% of Sales (0.1%) 2.3% 4.0% 5.5% 6.0%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 2,741,785 3,094,616 7,108,264 7,777,869 9,223,860<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (26,957) 689,900 1,552,344 2,441,027 2,989,133<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 2,714,828 3,784,516 8,660,608 10,218,896 12,212,993<br />

Principal Repayments 75,596 181,372 0 0 0<br />

Interest Payments 515 4,060 0 0 0<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 76,111 185,432 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 35.7x 20.4x - - -<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In RMB '000)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 7,108,264 -<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 15,648,520 -<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 22,756,784 -<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 -<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 22,756,784 -<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 0 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

170 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

100.0% 100.0% 100.0%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity<br />

(RMB '000) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 11,504,552 22,317,199 22,754,706<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 0 0 0<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

45.0x<br />

6000.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

35.0x<br />

5000.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

4000.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

3000.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

2000.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

1000.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

40.0x<br />

35.7x<br />

35.0x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

30.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

20.4x<br />

5.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0 0<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

29.33<br />

24.33<br />

19.33<br />

14.33<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

9.33<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Great Wall Motor Company Limited - H Share<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (RMB '000) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 22,986,072 30,089,477 38,900,234 44,682,676 49,609,186<br />

Operating Expenses (19,503,912) (25,420,731) (32,141,722 (37,176,31 (41,416,982)<br />

EBITDA 3,482,160 4,668,746 6,758,513 7,506,363 8,192,204<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (549,422) (701,977) (864,977) (1,120,574) (1,396,792)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 2,932,738 3,966,768 5,893,536 6,385,789 6,795,412<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 21,955 48,320 84,389 83,385 101,256<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 59,305 104,954 (7,312) 59,433 61,610<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 42,050 11,954 3,792 11,956 15,790<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 3,041,235 4,130,651 5,978,337 6,542,914 6,976,153<br />

Taxes on Profit (214,151) (619,998) (993,636) (1,132,740) (1,240,091)<br />

Minority Interests (126,349) (84,458) (124,618) (135,254) (143,402)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 2,700,735 3,426,195 4,860,083 5,274,920 5,592,660<br />

Balance Sheet (RMB '000)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 5,360,202 7,392,381 9,435,501 11,556,432 13,598,458<br />

Long-term Investments 4,200 4,200 4,513 4,514 4,514<br />

Associates 142,563 65,838 89,630 121,586 157,376<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 1,112,814 1,871,430 2,103,208 2,329,422 2,550,208<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 8,873,712 12,760,665 15,903,576 18,789,026 21,391,435<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 11,729,947 13,265,929 14,260,465 16,050,964 17,525,220<br />

Total Current Assets 14,824,563 20,374,192 22,038,334 25,274,824 28,659,044<br />

Total Assets 23,698,275 33,134,858 37,941,910 44,063,850 50,050,479<br />

Shareholders' Equity 10,015,148 16,737,108 20,684,464 24,890,166 29,322,344<br />

Total Equity 10,400,306 17,021,504 21,043,630 25,330,484 29,848,704<br />

Long Term Debt 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 1,410,476 1,399,816 1,431,865 1,502,981 1,571,963<br />

Total Current Liabilities 11,887,493 14,713,538 15,466,415 17,230,385 18,629,812<br />

Total Liabilities 13,297,969 16,113,354 16,898,280 18,733,366 20,201,776<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 23,698,275 33,134,858 37,941,910 44,063,850 50,050,479<br />

Cash Flow Statement (RMB '000)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 3,041,235 4,130,651 5,978,337 6,542,914 6,976,153<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 549,422 701,977 864,977 1,120,574 1,396,792<br />

Tax Paid (43,081) (569,807) (1,085,940) (1,125,720) (1,222,935)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (142,514) 357,673 (244,422) (27,981) (76,237)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 3,191,472 4,448,743 5,552,344 6,441,027 6,989,133<br />

Capital Expenditure (3,218,429) (3,758,843) (4,000,000) (4,000,000) (4,000,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 108,276 73,632 (165) 8,285 18,674<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (2,307,470) (3,664,176) (3,920,165) (3,871,715) (3,861,326)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (75,596) 4,763 0 0 0<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 3,894,372 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (274,425) (551,696) (912,727) (1,069,218) (1,160,482)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (1,212,260) 3,455,948 (1,262,574) (1,423,320) (1,517,843)<br />

Change in Cash (328,258) 4,240,514 369,605 1,145,991 1,609,963<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 15.1% 15.5% 17.4% 16.8% 16.5%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 12.8% 13.2% 15.2% 14.3% 13.7%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 11.7% 11.4% 12.5% 11.8% 11.3%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 30.7% 25.6% 26.0% 23.1% 20.6%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 15.3% 14.2% 16.9% 15.9% 14.7%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 38.5% 34.0% 38.0% 32.9% 29.7%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 219.6% 212.4% 189.9% 179.9% 173.6%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 42.5x 21.5x - - -<br />

Interest Cover (x) 5,699.5x 977.1x - - -<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 26.0% 48.3% 50.3% 53.5% 59.8%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 124.7% 138.5% 142.5% 146.7% 153.8%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 107.0% 119.6% 124.5% 129.5% 137.4%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

171 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


GS Engineering & Construction Corp (006360 KS)<br />

Sector: Industrials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Capital Goods<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.4x<br />

Country: Korea<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 24.0%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 2.1x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

GS Engineering & Construction Corporation (formerly LG Engineering & Construction Co. Ltd.) is a<br />

Korean company involved in civil, architecture and environmental engineering. The company specializes<br />

in the construction of oil, gas and petrochemical plants; power and electrical plants; construction of<br />

environmental facilities; and commercial and residential buildings; along with the provision of remodelling<br />

services.<br />

It is also engaged in undertaking feasibility studies; gathering, analysis and evaluation of data on<br />

proposed projects; consulting services; operation and maintenance of completed plants and design<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (KW m) 1,493,535 1,487,895 868,550 923,147 800,667<br />

Gross Debt (KW m) 1,322,557 1,775,465 994,263 783,935 643,895<br />

Interest Expense (KW m) (74,533) (42,936) (69,346) (44,558) (35,799)<br />

EBIT (KW m) 593,369 394,895 432,070 550,024 608,703<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 35.1% 44.9% 24.0% 17.7% 13.6%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 127.5% 136.3% 138.8% 138.4% 136.4%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 2.1x 3.4x 2.8x 1.5x 1.1x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.4x 0.3x 0.4x 1.9x 3.0x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 8.0x 9.2x 6.2x 12.3x 17.0x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (KW m) 8,419,920 9,052,234 9,694,941 10,926,631 12,000,075<br />

% Change (YoY) - 7.5% 7.1% 12.7% 9.8%<br />

EBITDA (KW m) 642,334 457,330 494,442 611,891 672,004<br />

% of Sales 7.6% 5.1% 5.1% 5.6% 5.6%<br />

Net Income (KW m) 397,338 423,677 222,877 332,507 375,129<br />

% of Sales 4.7% 4.7% 2.3% 3.0% 3.1%<br />

Free Cash Flow (KW m) 232,369 (490,014) 272,655 357,588 109,944<br />

% of Sales 2.8% (5.4%) 2.8% 3.3% 0.9%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 1,526,461 1,493,535 1,487,895 868,550 923,147<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 232,369 (490,014) 272,655 357,588 109,944<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 1,758,830 1,003,521 1,760,550 1,226,138 1,033,091<br />

Principal Repayments 1,209,400 1,294,102 781,202 210,327 140,040<br />

Interest Payments 74,533 42,936 69,346 44,558 35,799<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 1,283,933 1,337,038 850,549 254,885 175,838<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.4x 0.8x 2.1x 4.8x 5.9x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In KW m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 1,487,895 94.0%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 1,261,074 79.7%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 2,748,969 173.7%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 2,748,969 173.7%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 1,582,493 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(KW m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 4,557,002 2,835,138 2,958,835<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 1,775,465 994,263 783,935<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

6.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EI675966 Corp At maturity Senior Unsecured US$ 300.0 300.0 100.00 20-May-2011 20-May-2014 2.64% 2<br />

EI623902 Corp At maturity<br />

EJ379719 Corp At maturity<br />

Senior Unsecured<br />

Senior Unsecured<br />

KW<br />

KW<br />

200,000.<br />

200,000.<br />

0<br />

0<br />

200,000.0<br />

200,000.0<br />

100.00<br />

100.00<br />

04-Apr-2011<br />

09-Oct-2012<br />

04-Apr-2014<br />

09-Oct-2017<br />

4.75%<br />

3.36%<br />

4<br />

4<br />

172 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

28.0%<br />

72.0%<br />

26.0%<br />

74.0%<br />

20.9%<br />

79.1%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

2.0x<br />

14.0x<br />

12.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

10.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

4.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (KW)<br />

5.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

1,20,375<br />

1,00,375<br />

80,375<br />

60,375<br />

1.4x<br />

0.8x<br />

2.1x<br />

4.8x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

40,375<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

GS Engineering & Construction Corp


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (KW m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 8,419,920 9,052,234 9,694,941 10,926,631 12,000,075<br />

Operating Expenses (7,777,586) (8,594,904) (9,200,499) (10,314,73<br />

(11,328,071)<br />

EBITDA 642,334 457,330 494,442 611,891 672,004<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (48,965) (62,435) (62,372) (61,867) (63,301)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 593,369 394,895 432,070 550,024 608,703<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (25,163) 9,745 (27,917) (12,447) (4,808)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 4,531 (45,367) (90,377) (101,023) (110,795)<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits (1,527) 14,640 19,239 11,062 11,892<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 555,789 563,637 333,015 447,616 504,992<br />

Taxes on Profit (150,246) (136,224) (105,590) (108,323) (122,208)<br />

Minority Interests (8,205) (3,736) (4,549) (6,786) (7,656)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 397,338 423,677 222,877 332,507 375,129<br />

Balance Sheet (KW m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 2,145,598 2,115,597 2,192,426 2,229,372 2,254,732<br />

Long-term Investments 205,405 210,474 210,474 210,474 210,474<br />

Associates 50,293 64,129 73,748 79,279 85,225<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 61,415 53,712 53,067 52,431 51,801<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 3,402,457 3,316,136 3,343,384 3,367,047 3,389,692<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 6,150,366 6,294,513 6,650,299 7,138,927 7,962,840<br />

Total Current Assets 7,643,901 7,782,408 7,518,849 8,062,074 8,763,507<br />

Total Assets 11,046,358 11,098,544 10,862,233 11,429,121 12,153,200<br />

Shareholders' Equity 3,549,947 3,735,069 3,908,467 4,189,713 4,504,990<br />

Total Equity 3,771,355 3,958,038 4,134,393 4,420,049 4,740,302<br />

Long Term Debt 468,396 977,781 855,313 732,846 610,378<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 1,606,706 1,794,489 1,672,021 1,549,554 1,427,086<br />

Total Current Liabilities 5,668,297 5,346,017 5,055,819 5,459,519 5,985,811<br />

Total Liabilities 7,275,003 7,140,506 6,727,840 7,009,072 7,412,897<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 11,046,358 11,098,544 10,862,233 11,429,121 12,153,200<br />

Cash Flow Statement (KW m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 555,789 563,637 333,015 447,616 504,992<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 48,965 62,435 62,372 61,867 63,301<br />

Tax Paid (108,519) (223,588) (151,260) (125,498) (123,524)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (450,810) (976,767) 58,421 20,107 (278,733)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 331,953 (438,769) 352,655 437,588 189,944<br />

Capital Expenditure (99,584) (51,245) (80,000) (80,000) (80,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (90,788) 131,019 (80,000) (80,000) (80,000)<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (177,730) 107,592 (70,381) (74,469) (74,054)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (34,782) 436,504 (781,202) (210,327) (140,040)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (49,479) (49,479) (49,479) (51,262) (59,851)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (178,945) 320,737 (901,620) (308,522) (238,369)<br />

Change in Cash (24,722) (10,440) (619,345) 54,597 (122,480)<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 7.6% 5.1% 5.1% 5.6% 5.6%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 7.0% 4.4% 4.5% 5.0% 5.1%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 4.7% 4.7% 2.3% 3.0% 3.1%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 11.2% 11.6% 5.8% 8.2% 8.6%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 5.8% 4.0% 4.3% 5.2% 5.4%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 9.7% 6.5% 6.2% 8.7% 9.3%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 35.1% 44.9% 24.0% 17.7% 13.6%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - 7.3% 3.0% - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 311.2% 304.0% 287.3% 275.3% 271.2%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.4x 0.3x 0.4x 1.9x 3.0x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 8.0x 9.2x 6.2x 12.3x 17.0x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 26.3% 27.8% 17.2% 16.9% 13.4%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 134.9% 145.6% 148.7% 147.7% 146.4%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 127.5% 136.3% 138.8% 138.4% 136.4%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

173 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


HCL Technologies Ltd. (HCLT IN)<br />

Sector: Information Technology Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Software & Services<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 6.8x<br />

Country: India<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 12.1%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 9.1x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

HCL Technologies Limited (HCL), headquartered in Noida (India), is one of the leading global IT<br />

Services companies providing software-led IT solutions, remote infrastructure management services,<br />

engineering and R&D services and business process outsourcing (BPO) services. HCL serves industries<br />

such as Financial Services, Manufacturing, Aerospace & Defense, Telecom, Retail & CPG, Life<br />

Sciences & Healthcare, Media & Entertainment, Travel, Transportation & Logistics, Automotive,<br />

Government, Energy & Utilities. In addition to this, HCL AXON, formed after the acquisition of Axon<br />

Group plc in December 2008, offers full SAP lifecycle services including Business Consulting, Solutions<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 30 Jun) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Rs m) 23,049 25,939 30,455 29,536 42,953<br />

Gross Debt (Rs m) 22,591 21,854 14,199 6,001 3,490<br />

Interest Expense (Rs m) (1,269) (1,142) (986) (500) (274)<br />

EBIT (Rs m) 19,958 31,459 39,407 41,395 46,343<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 29.5% 22.2% 12.1% 4.4% 2.2%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 159.7% 137.3% 147.4% 174.3% 203.3%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 1.0x 0.6x 0.4x 0.2x 0.1x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.4x 2.6x 6.8x 10.4x 15.4x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 15.7x 27.6x 40.0x 82.8x 169.0x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (Rs m) 157,304 208,306 248,064 279,517 308,711<br />

% Change (YoY) 29.6% 32.4% 19.1% 12.7% 10.4%<br />

EBITDA (Rs m) 24,555 36,952 46,049 49,270 55,431<br />

% of Sales 15.6% 17.7% 18.6% 17.6% 18.0%<br />

Net Income (Rs m) 16,465 24,227 30,700 32,509 36,565<br />

% of Sales 10.5% 11.6% 12.4% 11.6% 11.8%<br />

Free Cash Flow (Rs m) 9,778 16,439 22,735 18,625 28,211<br />

% of Sales 6.2% 7.9% 9.2% 6.7% 9.1%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 24,621 23,049 25,939 30,455 29,536<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 9,778 16,439 22,735 18,625 28,211<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 34,399 39,489 48,674 49,080 57,746<br />

Principal Repayments 12,878 9,936 4,355 3,199 2,511<br />

Interest Payments 1,269 1,142 986 500 274<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 14,147 11,078 5,341 3,699 2,785<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 2.4x 3.6x 9.1x 13.3x 20.7x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In Rs m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 25,939 179.4%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 131,379 908.6%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 157,318 1,088.0%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 157,318 1,088.0%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 14,459 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(Rs m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 330,315 433,475 433,475<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 21,854 14,199 6,001<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

14.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EH972505 Corp At Maturity Secured Rs 5,000.0 5,000.0 100.00 10-Sep-2009 10-Sep-2014 8.80% 4<br />

174 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

6.2%<br />

93.8%<br />

3.2%<br />

96.8%<br />

1.4%<br />

98.6%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

12.0x<br />

90.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

80.0x<br />

70.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

60.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (Rs)<br />

12.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

730<br />

630<br />

530<br />

430<br />

2.4x<br />

3.6x<br />

9.1x<br />

13.3x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

330<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

HCL Technologies Ltd.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (Rs m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 157,304 208,306 248,064 279,517 308,711<br />

Operating Expenses (132,749) (171,354) (202,015) (230,247) (253,280)<br />

EBITDA 24,555 36,952 46,049 49,270 55,431<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (4,597) (5,492) (6,641) (7,875) (9,087)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 19,958 31,459 39,407 41,395 46,343<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (245) (42) 662 907 1,372<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 1,610 663 643 643 643<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 21,351 32,098 40,712 42,946 48,359<br />

Taxes on Profit (4,885) (7,827) (10,011) (10,436) (11,792)<br />

Minority Interests (1) (1) (1) (1) (1)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 (43) 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 16,465 24,227 30,700 32,509 36,565<br />

Balance Sheet (Rs m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 15,096 19,180 23,046 25,883 27,601<br />

Long-term Investments 949 1,270 1,272 1,272 1,272<br />

Associates 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 37,362 45,351 45,223 44,868 44,398<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 72,440 92,425 96,746 99,763 101,636<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 43,517 64,549 69,647 81,846 88,657<br />

Total Current Assets 66,566 90,488 100,102 111,381 131,610<br />

Total Assets 139,006 182,913 196,848 211,144 233,245<br />

Shareholders' Equity 76,530 98,379 116,860 136,431 158,443<br />

Total Equity 76,567 98,389 116,872 136,443 158,457<br />

Long Term Debt 16,558 10,772 3,415 1,536 0<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 21,801 20,284 13,587 12,409 11,407<br />

Total Current Liabilities 40,638 64,240 66,389 62,293 63,382<br />

Total Liabilities 62,439 84,524 79,976 74,701 74,789<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 139,006 182,913 196,848 211,144 233,245<br />

Cash Flow Statement (Rs m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 21,351 32,098 40,712 42,946 48,359<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 4,597 5,492 6,641 7,875 9,087<br />

Tax Paid (3,285) (7,660) (10,011) (10,436) (11,792)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (5,520) (8,310) (3,102) (10,010) (5,228)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 17,629 25,534 33,235 29,125 38,711<br />

Capital Expenditure (7,851) (9,094) (10,500) (10,500) (10,500)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 12 (2,734) 121 143 164<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (6,899) (10,263) (8,593) (8,614) (8,419)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (4,990) (3,607) (7,655) (8,199) (2,511)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 896 391 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (5,179) (8,031) (11,483) (12,732) (14,089)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (10,543) (12,388) (20,124) (21,430) (16,874)<br />

Change in Cash 187 2,882 4,519 (920) 13,417<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 15.6% 17.7% 18.6% 17.6% 18.0%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 12.7% 15.1% 15.9% 14.8% 15.0%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 10.5% 11.6% 12.4% 11.6% 11.8%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 23.6% 27.7% 28.5% 25.7% 24.8%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 16.1% 20.4% 21.6% 21.0% 21.6%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 21.2% 26.0% 28.0% 27.0% 27.9%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 29.5% 22.2% 12.1% 4.4% 2.2%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 8.4% 2.4% - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 190.1% 184.1% 176.4% 161.1% 150.7%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.4x 2.6x 6.8x 10.4x 15.4x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 15.7x 27.6x 40.0x 82.8x 169.0x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 39.7% 30.3% 36.1% 37.0% 57.6%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 163.8% 140.9% 150.8% 178.8% 207.6%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 159.7% 137.3% 147.4% 174.3% 203.3%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

175 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Hengan International Group Co., Ltd. (1044 HK)<br />

Sector: Consumer Staples Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Household & Personal Products Debt Service Cover (x) 1.9x<br />

Country: Hong Kong<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 74.9%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 5.1x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Hengan International Group Company Limited is primarily engaged in the manufacturing, distribution and<br />

sale of personal hygiene products in the PRC. The Group’s products comprise of tissue paper products,<br />

sanitary napkins, disposable diapers, skin care and cleansing products and first-aid products. Since<br />

entering the PRC sanitary napkins business in 1985, the Fujian-based Hengan has established itself as<br />

a leader in the Household and Personal Care sector by diversifying into the tissue and disposable<br />

diapers segments. The Company further acquired the snack food business from Qin Qin in 2008.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (HK$ m) 6,048 8,327 13,007 14,914 18,708<br />

Gross Debt (HK$ m) 5,312 7,218 10,927 14,151 16,936<br />

Interest Expense (HK$ m) (75) (157) (209) (288) (357)<br />

EBIT (HK$ m) 3,005 3,153 4,626 5,469 6,469<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 49.1% 56.8% 74.9% 85.3% 90.1%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 131.5% 108.0% 125.2% 133.6% 138.4%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 1.2x 1.7x 1.8x 2.0x 2.1x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.1x 0.6x 1.9x 2.2x 2.1x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 39.9x 20.0x 22.2x 19.0x 18.1x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (HK$ m) 13,432 17,051 19,737 23,519 27,713<br />

% Change (YoY) 24.0% 26.9% 15.8% 19.2% 17.8%<br />

EBITDA (HK$ m) 3,389 3,596 5,169 6,140 7,274<br />

% of Sales 25.2% 21.1% 26.2% 26.1% 26.2%<br />

Net Income (HK$ m) 2,438 2,649 3,645 4,233 4,939<br />

% of Sales 18.2% 15.5% 18.5% 18.0% 17.8%<br />

Free Cash Flow (HK$ m) 1,245 1,152 2,962 1,171 4,057<br />

% of Sales 9.3% 6.8% 15.0% 5.0% 14.6%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 4,461 6,048 8,327 13,007 14,914<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 1,245 1,152 2,962 1,171 4,057<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 5,706 7,200 11,289 14,178 18,971<br />

Principal Repayments 2,458 4,877 1,992 1,976 2,415<br />

Interest Payments 75 157 209 288 357<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 2,534 5,035 2,200 2,264 2,773<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 2.3x 1.4x 5.1x 6.3x 6.8x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In HK$ m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 8,327 53.9%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 16,899 109.5%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 25,225 163.4%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 6,482 42.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 31,708 205.4%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 15,438 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

176 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

7.5%<br />

92.5%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(HK$ m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 89,287 85,969 88,857<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 7,218 10,927 14,151<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

7.0x<br />

11.3%<br />

88.7%<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

13.7%<br />

86.3%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

2.5x<br />

45.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

35.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

25.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

10.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

6.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

97<br />

87<br />

77<br />

67<br />

2.3x<br />

1.4x<br />

5.1x<br />

6.3x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

57<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Hengan International Group Co., Ltd.<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (HK$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 13,432 17,051 19,737 23,519 27,713<br />

Operating Expenses (10,296) (13,769) (14,842) (17,654) (20,714)<br />

EBITDA 3,389 3,596 5,169 6,140 7,274<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (385) (443) (544) (671) (805)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 3,005 3,153 4,626 5,469 6,469<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 39 41 20 (28) (73)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 0 64 16 16 16<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 3,038 3,255 4,662 5,457 6,412<br />

Taxes on Profit (552) (570) (966) (1,164) (1,403)<br />

Minority Interests (48) (37) (52) (60) (70)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 2,438 2,649 3,645 4,233 4,939<br />

Balance Sheet (HK$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 4,519 5,203 6,834 8,493 10,103<br />

Long-term Investments 786 296 294 294 294<br />

Associates 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 607 601 597 593 589<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 7,827 9,575 11,707 13,717 15,589<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 4,702 5,417 5,801 7,391 8,049<br />

Total Current Assets 10,750 13,744 18,808 22,305 26,757<br />

Total Assets 18,577 23,319 30,515 36,022 42,346<br />

Shareholders' Equity 10,503 12,341 14,153 16,109 18,253<br />

Total Equity 10,826 12,719 14,580 16,594 18,805<br />

Long Term Debt 1,497 404 3,200 5,600 7,200<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 1,675 588 3,385 5,785 7,385<br />

Total Current Liabilities 6,077 10,012 12,550 13,644 16,157<br />

Total Liabilities 7,752 10,600 15,935 19,428 23,541<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 18,577 23,319 30,515 36,022 42,346<br />

Cash Flow Statement (HK$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 3,038 3,255 4,662 5,457 6,412<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 385 443 544 671 805<br />

Tax Paid (388) (550) (810) (1,029) (1,260)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (745) 286 1,087 (1,456) 527<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 2,280 3,356 5,446 3,655 6,541<br />

Capital Expenditure (1,035) (2,204) (2,484) (2,484) (2,484)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (289) (3,417) 15 19 23<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (1,577) (5,476) (2,433) (2,405) (2,376)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 2,553 1,828 3,708 3,224 2,785<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 123 120 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (1,468) (1,596) (1,835) (2,279) (2,798)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 735 195 1,665 656 (370)<br />

Change in Cash 1,438 (1,925) 4,678 1,907 3,794<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 25.2% 21.1% 26.2% 26.1% 26.2%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 22.4% 18.5% 23.4% 23.3% 23.3%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 18.2% 15.5% 18.5% 18.0% 17.8%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 25.0% 23.2% 27.5% 28.0% 28.7%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 19.0% 15.9% 18.0% 17.2% 17.2%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 29.4% 24.8% 30.7% 30.6% 31.0%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 49.1% 56.8% 74.9% 85.3% 90.1%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 167.6% 183.4% 203.2% 219.9% 228.1%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.1x 0.6x 1.9x 2.2x 2.1x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 39.9x 20.0x 22.2x 19.0x 18.1x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 98.6% 82.5% 103.1% 108.8% 115.4%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 176.9% 137.3% 149.9% 163.5% 165.6%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 131.5% 108.0% 125.2% 133.6% 138.4%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

177 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Hero MotoCorp Limited (HMCL IN)<br />

Sector: Consumer Discretionary Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Automobiles & Components<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 352.1x<br />

Country: India<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 0.0%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 586.8x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Based in India, Hero MotoCorp Ltd. (formerly Hero Honda Motors Ltd.) is the world's largest<br />

manufacturer of two-wheelers. The company offers a wide range of two-wheeler products that include<br />

motorcycles and scooters, though motorcycles account for a major portion of its operations as of now.<br />

The company was set up in 1984 as Hero Honda Motors Ltd., a joint venture between India’s Hero<br />

Cycles and Japan’s Honda Motor Co. Ltd. (Honda). In 2011, Honda transferred its entire shareholding of<br />

26% in the company to the Indian Promoter Group, bringing an end to the joint venture between the two<br />

promoter groups of the company.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Mar) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Rs m) 47,348 33,671 43,626 52,052 63,660<br />

Gross Debt (Rs m) 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Interest Expense (Rs m) (152) (213) (100) (100) (300)<br />

EBIT (Rs m) 22,232 25,357 23,601 28,574 36,690<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 87.2% 95.7% 113.0% 144.8% 170.0%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) - - - - -<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 173.1x 170.6x 352.1x 403.1x 144.5x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 146.6x 119.0x 236.0x 285.7x 122.3x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (Rs m) 192,450 233,681 244,965 274,202 294,631<br />

% Change (YoY) 22.1% 21.4% 4.8% 11.9% 7.5%<br />

EBITDA (Rs m) 26,256 36,330 35,214 40,309 43,339<br />

% of Sales 13.6% 15.5% 14.4% 14.7% 14.7%<br />

Net Income (Rs m) 19,279 23,781 22,631 24,949 29,306<br />

% of Sales 10.0% 10.2% 9.2% 9.1% 9.9%<br />

Free Cash Flow (Rs m) 18,900 17,947 25,005 25,702 25,757<br />

% of Sales 9.8% 7.7% 10.2% 9.4% 8.7%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 54,834 47,348 33,671 43,626 52,052<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 18,900 17,947 25,005 25,702 25,757<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 73,734 65,295 58,676 69,328 77,809<br />

Principal Repayments 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Interest Payments 152 213 100 100 300<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 152 213 100 100 300<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 486.1x 306.6x 586.8x 693.3x 259.4x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In Rs m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 33,671 3,061.0%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 132,977 12,088.8%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 166,648 15,149.8%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 166,648 15,149.8%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 1,100 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

178 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

100.0% 100.0% 100.0%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity<br />

(Rs m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 410,408 380,475 380,475<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 0 0 0<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

450.0x<br />

350.0x<br />

400.0x<br />

300.0x<br />

350.0x<br />

300.0x<br />

250.0x<br />

250.0x<br />

200.0x<br />

200.0x<br />

150.0x<br />

150.0x<br />

100.0x<br />

100.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

800.0x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

700.0x<br />

600.0x<br />

500.0x<br />

400.0x<br />

300.0x<br />

200.0x<br />

100.0x<br />

486.1x<br />

306.6x<br />

586.8x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Share Price (Rs)<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

693.3x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

2,669<br />

2,469<br />

2,269<br />

2,069<br />

1,869<br />

1,669<br />

1,469<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Hero MotoCorp Limited<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (Rs m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 192,450 233,681 244,965 274,202 294,631<br />

Operating Expenses (167,724) (199,460) (211,365) (236,168) (253,745)<br />

EBITDA 26,256 36,330 35,214 40,309 43,339<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (4,024) (10,973) (11,613) (11,735) (6,648)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 22,232 25,357 23,601 28,574 36,690<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 25 5 33 36 (161)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 673 612 1,737 1,736 1,074<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 24,048 28,647 26,912 31,898 38,940<br />

Taxes on Profit (4,769) (4,866) (4,282) (6,949) (9,634)<br />

Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 19,279 23,781 22,631 24,949 29,306<br />

Balance Sheet (Rs m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 16,125 17,431 20,588 25,023 28,546<br />

Long-term Investments 4,655 6,740 7,546 8,970 11,024<br />

Associates 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 24,678 20,424 11,591 3,255 883<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 49,604 50,645 45,914 43,787 47,477<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 10,370 14,638 15,004 15,090 15,271<br />

Total Current Assets 57,718 48,310 58,630 67,142 78,931<br />

Total Assets 107,322 98,954 104,544 110,930 126,407<br />

Shareholders' Equity 29,561 42,898 54,214 66,688 81,341<br />

Total Equity 29,561 42,898 54,214 66,688 81,341<br />

Long Term Debt 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 17,594 12,641 4,766 2,853 2,917<br />

Total Current Liabilities 60,167 43,414 45,564 41,389 42,149<br />

Total Liabilities 77,762 56,056 50,330 44,242 45,067<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 107,322 98,954 104,544 110,930 126,407<br />

Cash Flow Statement (Rs m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 24,048 28,647 26,912 31,898 38,940<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 4,024 10,973 11,613 11,735 6,648<br />

Tax Paid (4,812) (5,827) (4,496) (7,297) (10,116)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 1,847 (6,906) 183 624 449<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 22,542 23,598 31,005 33,702 33,757<br />

Capital Expenditure (3,641) (5,651) (6,000) (8,000) (8,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (9,963) 15,047 (9,039) (7,844) (12,240)<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (13,223) 928 (20,363) (21,931) (21,017)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (9,401) (24,369) (10,444) (11,315) (12,474)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (9,552) (24,582) (10,544) (11,415) (12,774)<br />

Change in Cash (234) (56) 98 356 (34)<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 13.6% 15.5% 14.4% 14.7% 14.7%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 11.6% 10.9% 9.6% 10.4% 12.5%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 10.0% 10.2% 9.2% 9.1% 9.9%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 60.0% 65.6% 46.6% 41.3% 39.6%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 23.3% 24.8% 23.3% 26.6% 31.0%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) - 409.5% 173.0% 273.8% 305.2%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 299.2% 284.7% 209.5% 178.2% 160.3%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 173.1x 170.6x 352.1x 403.1x 144.5x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 146.6x 119.0x 236.0x 285.7x 122.3x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 1.2% 1.8% 1.9% 3.0% 2.8%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 95.9% 111.3% 128.7% 162.2% 187.3%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 87.2% 95.7% 113.0% 144.8% 170.0%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

179 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Hindalco Industries Limited (HNDL IN)<br />

Sector: Materials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Materials<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.0x<br />

Country: India<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 112.7%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.7x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Hindalco Industries Limited (Hindalco), an industry leader in aluminium and copper, is the flagship<br />

Company of the Aditya Birla Group. It is the world's largest aluminium rolling company and one of the<br />

biggest producers of primary aluminium in Asia. Its copper smelter is the world’s largest custom smelter<br />

at a single location. positioned it among the top 5 aluminum producers in the world.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Mar) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Rs m) 25,400 32,960 29,730 26,078 24,887<br />

Gross Debt (Rs m) 293,659 408,586 422,016 395,835 369,747<br />

Interest Expense (Rs m) (25,410) (28,531) (21,811) (23,611) (21,540)<br />

EBIT (Rs m) 51,692 53,198 68,965 74,757 77,897<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 94.0% 121.5% 112.7% 96.1% 81.8%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 94.5% 97.4% 107.1% 118.8% 113.9%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 3.4x 4.3x 4.3x 3.9x 3.5x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.5x 2.3x 1.0x 1.1x 1.2x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 2.0x 1.9x 3.2x 3.2x 3.6x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (Rs m) 722,023 808,214 883,967 925,486 966,144<br />

% Change (YoY) 18.9% 11.9% 9.4% 4.7% 4.4%<br />

EBITDA (Rs m) 79,287 81,894 96,641 104,375 109,063<br />

% of Sales 11.0% 10.1% 10.9% 11.3% 11.3%<br />

Net Income (Rs m) 25,706 32,978 38,463 38,608 40,320<br />

% of Sales 3.6% 4.1% 4.4% 4.2% 4.2%<br />

Free Cash Flow (Rs m) (16,826) (49,029) 18,205 53,521 58,531<br />

% of Sales (2.3%) (6.1%) 2.1% 5.8% 6.1%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 21,954 25,400 32,960 29,730 26,078<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (16,826) (49,029) 18,205 53,521 58,531<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 5,128 (23,630) 51,165 83,251 84,608<br />

Principal Repayments 111,046 5,209 54,570 49,181 49,088<br />

Interest Payments 25,410 28,531 21,811 23,611 21,540<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 136,456 33,740 76,381 72,792 70,628<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.0x (0.7x) 0.7x 1.1x 1.2x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In Rs m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 32,960 9.3%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 245,127 68.9%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 278,086 78.1%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 278,086 78.1%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 355,918 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

62.2% 62.0% 60.5%<br />

37.8% 38.0% 39.5%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(Rs m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 247,812 258,537 258,537<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 408,586 422,016 395,835<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

2.5x<br />

3.5x<br />

2.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.5x<br />

1.5x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

1.5x<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EJ136156 Corp At Maturity Bonds Rs 30,000.0 30,000.0 100.00 25-Apr-2012 25-Apr-2022 955.00% 1<br />

EJ260235 Corp At Maturity Secured Rs 15,000.0 15,000.0 100.00 08-Feb-2012 08-Feb-2022 960.00% 1<br />

EJ260235 Corp At Maturity Secured US$ 1,400.0 1,400.0 100.00 25-Apr-2012 25-Apr-2022 955.00% 1<br />

180 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (Rs)<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.0x<br />

(0.5x)<br />

(1.0x)<br />

186<br />

166<br />

146<br />

126<br />

106<br />

0.0x<br />

(0.7x)<br />

0.7x<br />

1.1x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

86<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Hindalco Industries Limited


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (Rs m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 722,023 808,214 883,967 925,486 966,144<br />

Operating Expenses (642,736) (726,319) (787,325) (821,111) (857,081)<br />

EBITDA 79,287 81,894 96,641 104,375 109,063<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (27,595) (28,696) (27,676) (29,618) (31,166)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 51,692 53,198 68,965 74,757 77,897<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (17,087) (15,877) (17,868) (22,169) (20,021)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 3,827 6,128 6,164 6,432 6,796<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 38,432 43,449 57,261 59,020 64,672<br />

Taxes on Profit (9,638) (7,862) (13,552) (16,122) (18,854)<br />

Minority Interests (3,659) (2,113) (5,245) (4,290) (5,498)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 571 (496) 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 25,706 32,978 38,463 38,608 40,320<br />

Balance Sheet (Rs m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 193,248 198,714 203,599 194,784 190,065<br />

Long-term Investments 53,269 56,915 56,966 57,017 56,897<br />

Associates 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 130,967 156,289 155,582 154,875 154,168<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 524,458 683,851 704,995 687,420 707,118<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 298,838 297,212 344,705 379,722 397,605<br />

Total Current Assets 324,238 330,172 374,436 405,800 422,492<br />

Total Assets 848,696 1,014,023 1,079,430 1,093,220 1,129,610<br />

Shareholders' Equity 290,233 319,113 352,192 385,394 420,069<br />

Total Equity 312,402 336,204 374,527 412,019 452,193<br />

Long Term Debt 252,532 371,272 385,734 360,481 335,229<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 338,569 474,810 489,316 466,348 443,994<br />

Total Current Liabilities 197,725 203,009 215,588 214,852 233,423<br />

Total Liabilities 536,293 677,819 704,903 681,201 677,417<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 848,696 1,014,023 1,079,430 1,093,220 1,129,610<br />

Cash Flow Statement (Rs m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 38,432 43,449 57,261 59,020 64,672<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 27,595 28,696 27,676 29,618 31,166<br />

Tax Paid (13,131) (10,901) (15,351) (15,968) (18,277)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (7,084) (9,322) (8,434) (7,571) 10,133<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 62,260 76,089 79,550 90,148 110,856<br />

Capital Expenditure (79,086) (125,119) (61,345) (36,628) (52,325)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 6,545 (12,329) (3,818) (4,809) (9,792)<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (70,694) (132,203) (70,805) (38,624) (59,013)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 37,384 89,511 13,430 (26,181) (26,088)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 99 35 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (3,838) (4,110) (3,594) (5,385) (5,405)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 8,253 56,957 (11,975) (55,177) (53,033)<br />

Change in Cash (181) 844 (3,229) (3,653) (1,191)<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 11.0% 10.1% 10.9% 11.3% 11.3%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 7.2% 6.6% 7.8% 8.1% 8.1%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 3.6% 4.1% 4.4% 4.2% 4.2%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 10.2% 10.8% 11.5% 10.5% 10.0%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 6.9% 5.9% 6.8% 7.0% 7.1%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 7.4% 6.4% 6.7% 6.6% 6.6%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 94.0% 121.5% 112.7% 96.1% 81.8%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 85.9% 111.7% 104.7% 89.7% 76.3%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 304.7% 305.7% 311.8% 294.6% 276.0%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.5x 2.3x 1.0x 1.1x 1.2x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 2.0x 1.9x 3.2x 3.2x 3.6x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 12.8% 16.2% 13.8% 12.1% 10.7%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 164.0% 162.6% 173.7% 188.9% 181.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 94.5% 97.4% 107.1% 118.8% 113.9%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

181 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd. (HPCL IN)<br />

Sector: Energy Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Energy<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.5x<br />

Country: India<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 306.8%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.7x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd., (HPCL) is one of the three major downstream oil companies in<br />

India and is primarily engaged in refining and retailing of petroleum products. The company markets a<br />

diverse range of products like High Speed Diesel, Motor Sprit, Aviation Turbine Fuel, LPG, Fuel Oil and<br />

Naphtha etc., through its wide network of Fuel Stations, Kerosene Dealers and LPG Distributors spread<br />

across India.<br />

HPCL has refineries at Mumbai and Visakh with a capacity of 6 5 Million Metric Tonnes per Annum<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Mar) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Rs m) 92,812 121,465 113,276 108,599 105,775<br />

Gross Debt (Rs m) 311,240 401,688 428,391 429,792 453,393<br />

Interest Expense (Rs m) (8,849) (20,381) (24,902) (25,746) (26,496)<br />

EBIT (Rs m) 23,198 22,195 19,913 30,139 31,820<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 234.3% 303.3% 306.8% 291.6% 288.3%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 39.4% 38.5% 36.6% 36.3% 35.5%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 7.3x 8.6x 9.7x 7.6x 7.5x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 4.3x 2.0x 0.5x 0.6x 0.6x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 2.6x 1.1x 0.8x 1.2x 1.2x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (Rs m) 1,387,422 1,852,839 2,346,772 2,342,833 2,403,383<br />

% Change (YoY) 24.5% 33.5% 26.7% (0.2%) 2.6%<br />

EBITDA (Rs m) 38,180 41,416 42,947 56,158 59,194<br />

% of Sales 2.8% 2.2% 1.8% 2.4% 2.5%<br />

Net Income (Rs m) 17,036 1,747 10,872 11,940 15,194<br />

% of Sales 1.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6%<br />

Free Cash Flow (Rs m) (76,451) (78,912) (14,751) 15,080 (4,057)<br />

% of Sales (5.5%) (4.3%) (0.6%) 0.6% (0.2%)<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 93,705 92,812 121,465 113,276 108,599<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (76,452) (78,912) (14,751) 15,080 (4,057)<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 17,253 13,900 106,714 128,357 104,542<br />

Principal Repayments 0 0 37,599 42,599 45,399<br />

Interest Payments 8,849 20,381 24,902 25,746 26,496<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 8,849 20,381 62,501 68,345 71,895<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.9x 0.7x 1.7x 1.9x 1.5x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In Rs m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 121,465 34.1%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 58,831 16.5%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 180,296 50.6%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 180,296 50.6%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 356,663 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

79.6% 81.0% 81.0%<br />

20.4% 19.0% 19.0%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(Rs m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 102,807 100,505 100,505<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 401,688 428,391 429,792<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

5.0x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

2.5x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EI218869 Corp At Maturity Secured Rs 10,000.0 10,000.0 100.00 12-Apr-2010 12-Apr-2013 7.70% 1<br />

EJ433552 Corp At Maturity Secured Rs 5,450.0 5,450.0 100.00 09-Nov-2012 09-Nov-2015 8.75% 1<br />

EJ384762 Corp At Maturity Secured Rs 4,250.0 4,250.0 100.00 21-Aug-2012 21-Aug-2020 4.00% 1<br />

182 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (Rs)<br />

4.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.5x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

2.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

404<br />

354<br />

304<br />

254<br />

1.9x<br />

0.7x<br />

1.7x<br />

1.9x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

204<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (Rs m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 1,387,422 1,852,839 2,346,772 2,342,833 2,403,383<br />

Operating Expenses (1,349,243) (1,811,422) (2,303,825) (2,286,675) (2,344,189)<br />

EBITDA 38,180 41,416 42,947 56,158 59,194<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (14,981) (19,222) (23,035) (26,020) (27,374)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 23,198 22,195 19,913 30,139 31,820<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (1,529) (6,074) (18,749) (20,042) (21,055)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 4,778 (7,684) 14,919 7,566 11,711<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 26,119 8,669 16,083 17,662 22,476<br />

Taxes on Profit (9,099) (6,910) (5,211) (5,723) (7,282)<br />

Minority Interests 16 (13) 0 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 17,036 1,747 10,872 11,940 15,194<br />

Balance Sheet (Rs m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 194,810 317,024 351,621 354,061 357,775<br />

Long-term Investments 40,883 40,668 40,668 40,668 40,668<br />

Associates 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 1,363 1,557 2,088 2,705 3,349<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 378,341 436,953 456,766 471,022 483,780<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 228,026 297,349 337,256 345,294 372,606<br />

Total Current Assets 320,838 418,814 450,533 453,893 478,382<br />

Total Assets 699,179 855,766 907,299 924,916 962,161<br />

Shareholders' Equity 132,817 132,413 139,589 147,350 157,226<br />

Total Equity 132,827 132,436 139,612 147,373 157,249<br />

Long Term Debt 110,466 138,443 160,599 160,754 176,910<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 192,071 232,186 254,341 254,497 270,653<br />

Total Current Liabilities 374,281 491,145 513,346 523,046 534,260<br />

Total Liabilities 566,352 723,330 767,687 777,543 804,913<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 699,179 855,766 907,299 924,916 962,161<br />

Cash Flow Statement (Rs m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 26,119 8,669 16,083 17,662 22,476<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 14,981 19,222 23,035 26,020 27,374<br />

Tax Paid (7,225) (2,811) (5,211) (5,723) (7,282)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (28,965) (38,585) (22,504) (66) (24,682)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 8,246 5,173 30,831 58,413 39,276<br />

Capital Expenditure (84,698) (84,085) (45,582) (43,333) (43,333)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 16,989 7,481 10,643 8,618 7,111<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (61,526) (71,330) (28,785) (29,012) (30,782)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 62,463 92,862 28,072 1,398 23,310<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (4,802) (5,490) (3,447) (3,697) (4,179)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 47,437 68,310 (277) (28,044) (7,364)<br />

Change in Cash (5,842) 2,153 1,769 1,357 1,130<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 2.8% 2.2% 1.8% 2.4% 2.5%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 1.7% 1.2% 0.8% 1.3% 1.3%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 1.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 13.3% 1.3% 8.0% 8.3% 10.0%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 4.8% 3.8% 3.0% 3.9% 3.9%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 4.7% 1.1% 2.8% 4.0% 4.0%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 234.3% 303.3% 306.8% 291.6% 288.3%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 228.6% 297.8% 301.3% 285.5% 281.6%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 496.4% 586.3% 648.2% 638.5% 619.6%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 4.3x 2.0x 0.5x 0.6x 0.6x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 2.6x 1.1x 0.8x 1.2x 1.2x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 2.0% 1.5% 1.5% 1.7% 2.0%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 85.7% 85.3% 87.8% 86.8% 89.5%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 39.4% 38.5% 36.6% 36.3% 35.5%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

183 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Hindustan Zinc Ltd. (HZ IN)<br />

Sector: Materials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Materials<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 341.5x<br />

Country: India<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 0.0%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1,349.9x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Hindustan Zinc Limited is a subsidiary of Sterlite Industries (India) Ltd of the London based Vedanta<br />

Group. The company is India’s largest and the world’s second largest integrated producer of zinc and<br />

lead with control of more than 80% and 20% of the Indian zinc and lead market, respectively.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Mar) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Rs m) 149,654 179,476 232,761 271,715 322,065<br />

Gross Debt (Rs m) 4 4 0 0 0<br />

Interest Expense (Rs m) (76) (140) (173) (175) (170)<br />

EBIT (Rs m) 51,330 54,588 54,002 59,465 67,386<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 1,011.6% 1,333.0% 1,250.5% 1,747.1% 1,692.7%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x - -<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 69.5x 435.1x 341.5x 380.7x 443.0x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 677.2x 391.3x 311.4x 339.6x 397.6x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (Rs m) 100,392 114,053 118,635 127,259 135,782<br />

% Change (YoY) 25.2% 13.6% 4.0% 7.3% 6.7%<br />

EBITDA (Rs m) 56,077 60,695 60,771 66,670 75,084<br />

% of Sales 55.9% 53.2% 51.2% 52.4% 55.3%<br />

Net Income (Rs m) 49,005 55,260 61,833 60,973 61,954<br />

% of Sales 48.8% 48.5% 52.1% 47.9% 45.6%<br />

Free Cash Flow (Rs m) 28,243 28,202 59,880 46,211 57,490<br />

% of Sales 28.1% 24.7% 50.5% 36.3% 42.3%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 9,275 149,654 179,476 232,761 271,715<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 28,243 28,202 59,880 46,211 57,490<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 37,519 177,856 239,356 278,972 329,205<br />

Principal Repayments 601 0 4 0 0<br />

Interest Payments 76 140 173 175 170<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 677 140 177 175 170<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 55.5x 1,275.0x 1,349.9x 1,593.0x 1,942.2x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In Rs m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 179,476 20,723.8%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 279,510 32,274.6%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 458,986 52,998.4%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 458,986 52,998.4%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 866 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

184 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

100.0% 100.0% 100.0%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity<br />

(Rs m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 559,221 583,094 583,094<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 4 0 0<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

500.0x<br />

800.0x<br />

700.0x<br />

400.0x<br />

600.0x<br />

300.0x<br />

500.0x<br />

400.0x<br />

200.0x<br />

300.0x<br />

100.0x<br />

200.0x<br />

100.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

1800.0x<br />

1600.0x<br />

1593.0x<br />

1400.0x<br />

1200.0x<br />

1000.0x<br />

800.0x<br />

600.0x<br />

400.0x<br />

1275.0x<br />

1349.9x<br />

200.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

55.5x<br />

2011A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (Rs)<br />

177<br />

157<br />

137<br />

117<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

97<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Hindustan Zinc Ltd.<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (Rs m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 100,392 114,053 118,635 127,259 135,782<br />

Operating Expenses (44,315) (53,359) (57,864) (60,590) (60,697)<br />

EBITDA 56,077 60,695 60,771 66,670 75,084<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (4,747) (6,107) (6,769) (7,204) (7,698)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 51,330 54,588 54,002 59,465 67,386<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 3,291 5,836 5,911 5,784 5,926<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 4,913 3,040 12,374 5,467 6,555<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 59,596 69,445 72,287 70,717 79,867<br />

Taxes on Profit (10,591) (14,185) (10,453) (9,744) (17,913)<br />

Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 49,005 55,260 61,833 60,973 61,954<br />

Balance Sheet (Rs m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 71,997 84,657 85,155 86,604 88,250<br />

Long-term Investments 21 26 26 26 26<br />

Associates 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 545 471 406 340 274<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 85,976 97,519 101,015 104,097 106,713<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 14,899 17,236 14,359 17,190 16,616<br />

Total Current Assets 164,554 196,711 247,119 288,905 338,682<br />

Total Assets 250,530 294,230 348,134 393,001 445,395<br />

Shareholders' Equity 225,332 268,813 317,475 365,461 414,219<br />

Total Equity 225,332 268,813 317,475 365,461 414,219<br />

Long Term Debt 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 9,685 11,260 11,360 11,460 11,560<br />

Total Current Liabilities 15,513 14,158 19,299 16,081 19,616<br />

Total Liabilities 25,198 25,418 30,659 27,540 31,176<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 250,530 294,230 348,134 393,001 445,395<br />

Cash Flow Statement (Rs m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 59,596 69,445 72,287 70,717 79,867<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 4,747 6,107 6,769 7,204 7,698<br />

Tax Paid (11,163) (15,017) (10,453) (9,744) (17,913)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (2,116) (609) 7,195 (6,176) 3,770<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 42,719 44,921 69,886 56,217 67,496<br />

Capital Expenditure (14,476) (16,719) (10,006) (10,006) (10,006)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 18,718 (24,509) (48,086) (45,950) (42,718)<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (36,589) (34,986) (52,008) (49,997) (46,628)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (601) 0 (4) 0 0<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (2,956) (12,277) (12,532) (13,072) (13,100)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (3,633) (12,417) (12,709) (13,247) (13,269)<br />

Change in Cash 2,497 (2,482) 5,169 (7,027) 7,599<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 55.9% 53.2% 51.2% 52.4% 55.3%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 51.1% 47.9% 45.5% 46.7% 49.6%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 48.8% 48.5% 52.1% 47.9% 45.6%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 24.1% 22.4% 21.1% 17.9% 15.9%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 24.2% 22.2% 18.7% 17.7% 17.5%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 54.3% 46.7% 47.0% 51.0% 50.1%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 111.4% 110.2% 109.6% 108.5% 107.5%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 69.5x 435.1x 341.5x 380.7x 443.0x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 677.2x 391.3x 311.4x 339.6x 397.6x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 363.1% 371.2% 299.1% 315.3% 297.2%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 1,060.8% 1,389.4% 1,280.5% 1,796.6% 1,726.6%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 1,011.6% 1,333.0% 1,250.5% 1,747.1% 1,692.7%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

185 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Hong Kong and China Gas Company Limited (3 HK)<br />

Sector: Utilities Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Utilities<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.3x<br />

Country: Hong Kong<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 57.4%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 2.9x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

The Hong Kong and China Gas Company Limited (HKCG) is engaged in the production, distribution and<br />

marketing of gas, water and related activities in Hong Kong and Mainland China. It is one of the largest<br />

energy suppliers in Hong Kong and is also engaged in property development and investment activities in<br />

Hong Kong. In Mainland China, HKCG is currently operating more than 138 projects which include piped<br />

city-gas projects, upstream and midstream developments, water and wastewater treatment schemes,<br />

natural gas filling stations etc.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (HK$ m) 11,867 12,049 13,623 11,509 9,981<br />

Gross Debt (HK$ m) 21,763 25,849 28,628 25,909 22,808<br />

Interest Expense (HK$ m) (835) (918) (885) (905) (826)<br />

EBIT (HK$ m) 4,678 5,675 6,381 6,563 6,888<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 52.8% 55.8% 57.4% 47.8% 38.7%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 94.7% 136.8% 137.2% 124.6% 119.6%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 3.6x 3.4x 3.5x 3.3x 2.8x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.8x 0.8x 1.3x 2.0x 1.9x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 5.6x 6.2x 7.2x 7.2x 8.3x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (HK$ m) 19,375 22,427 25,553 27,256 29,492<br />

% Change (YoY) 56.9% 15.7% 13.9% 6.7% 8.2%<br />

EBITDA (HK$ m) 5,830 6,986 7,867 8,196 8,648<br />

% of Sales 30.1% 31.1% 30.8% 30.1% 29.3%<br />

Net Income (HK$ m) 5,585 6,150 7,306 7,122 7,570<br />

% of Sales 28.8% 27.4% 28.6% 26.1% 25.7%<br />

Free Cash Flow (HK$ m) 957 232 2,857 3,730 4,679<br />

% of Sales 4.9% 1.0% 11.2% 13.7% 15.9%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 13,575 11,867 12,049 13,623 11,509<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 957 232 2,857 3,730 4,679<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 14,531 12,099 14,906 17,352 16,187<br />

Principal Repayments 5,571 6,377 4,221 2,720 3,101<br />

Interest Payments 835 918 885 905 826<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 6,406 7,295 5,106 3,625 3,927<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 2.3x 1.7x 2.9x 4.8x 4.1x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In HK$ m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 12,049 59.7%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 22,543 111.6%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 34,592 171.3%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 34,592 171.3%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 20,199 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(HK$ m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 142,210 183,806 184,241<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 25,849 28,628 25,909<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

6.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EH494429 Corp Callable Company Guarantee US$ 1,000.0 995.0 99.32 07-Aug-2008 07-Aug-2018 6.25% 2<br />

EI629846 Corp At Maturity Company Guarantee RMB 1,000.0 1,000.0 100.00 11-Apr-2011 11-Apr-2016 1.40% 2<br />

186 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

15.4%<br />

84.6%<br />

13.5%<br />

86.5%<br />

12.3%<br />

87.7%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

2.5x<br />

8.0x<br />

7.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

5.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

5.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

2.3x<br />

1.7x<br />

2.9x<br />

4.8x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

26<br />

24<br />

22<br />

20<br />

18<br />

16<br />

14<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Hong Kong and China Gas Company Limited


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (HK$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 19,375 22,427 25,553 27,256 29,492<br />

Operating Expenses (13,545) (15,441) (17,686) (19,060) (20,845)<br />

EBITDA 5,830 6,986 7,867 8,196 8,648<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (1,152) (1,311) (1,486) (1,633) (1,760)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 4,678 5,675 6,381 6,563 6,888<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (382) (490) (608) (633) (582)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 373 328 926 371 367<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 2,418 2,556 2,847 3,022 3,201<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 7,087 8,069 9,547 9,323 9,875<br />

Taxes on Profit (1,039) (1,344) (1,605) (1,540) (1,601)<br />

Minority Interests (463) (575) (635) (662) (703)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 5,585 6,150 7,306 7,122 7,570<br />

Balance Sheet (HK$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 21,936 25,552 28,183 30,312 31,758<br />

Long-term Investments 3,441 3,111 3,016 2,940 2,879<br />

Associates 18,571 21,672 23,896 26,227 28,668<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 2,576 3,435 3,435 3,435 3,435<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 55,707 65,134 70,280 74,377 77,447<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 5,091 7,906 8,087 8,016 8,591<br />

Total Current Assets 16,958 19,955 21,710 19,525 18,572<br />

Total Assets 72,664 85,089 91,990 93,902 96,018<br />

Shareholders' Equity 37,464 41,584 44,647 48,453 52,633<br />

Total Equity 41,209 46,332 49,869 54,167 58,871<br />

Long Term Debt 11,781 21,628 23,509 21,008 18,507<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 14,932 25,353 27,565 25,398 23,232<br />

Total Current Liabilities 16,523 13,403 14,556 14,337 13,915<br />

Total Liabilities 31,456 38,757 42,121 39,735 37,147<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 72,664 85,089 91,990 93,902 96,018<br />

Cash Flow Statement (HK$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 7,087 8,069 9,547 9,323 9,875<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 1,152 1,311 1,486 1,633 1,760<br />

Tax Paid (720) (961) (1,151) (1,197) (1,252)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 95 (1,093) (65) 55 (415)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 5,234 4,957 7,438 7,293 7,224<br />

Capital Expenditure (4,278) (4,725) (4,581) (3,563) (2,545)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (3,978) (3,039) (1,156) (1,152) (1,147)<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (6,481) (3,751) (3,353) (2,297) (1,256)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 1,284 3,691 2,779 (2,720) (3,101)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 8 39 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (2,500) (2,747) (4,405) (3,484) (3,570)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (1,963) 215 (2,511) (7,110) (7,496)<br />

Change in Cash (3,210) 1,421 1,574 (2,114) (1,528)<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 30.1% 31.1% 30.8% 30.1% 29.3%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 24.1% 25.3% 25.0% 24.1% 23.4%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 28.8% 27.4% 28.6% 26.1% 25.7%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 15.7% 15.6% 16.9% 15.3% 15.0%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 7.2% 7.5% 7.5% 7.4% 7.5%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 13.2% 13.3% 13.1% 12.8% 13.0%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 52.8% 55.8% 57.4% 47.8% 38.7%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 29.3% 31.5% 31.7% 28.1% 23.2%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 195.9% 199.6% 205.4% 199.7% 187.9%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.8x 0.8x 1.3x 2.0x 1.9x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 5.6x 6.2x 7.2x 7.2x 8.3x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 58.7% 83.9% 88.0% 74.6% 65.9%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 102.6% 148.9% 149.1% 136.2% 133.5%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 94.7% 136.8% 137.2% 124.6% 119.6%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

187 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


HTC Corporation (2498 TT)<br />

Sector: Information Technology Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Technology Hardware & Equipment Debt Service Cover (x) -<br />

Country: Taiwan<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 0.0%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) -<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

HTC Corporation was incorporated in Taiwan in May 1997. HTC designs, manufactures and markets<br />

innovative, feature rich touch phones, PDAs, Smartphones, and mobile computer devices. HTC started<br />

its operations as ODM (Original Device Manufacturer), working as a subcontractor for other companies.<br />

The Company began transforming from ODM to own-brand in early 2006 with introduction of products<br />

like HTC Touch.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (NT$ m) 75,697 89,164 52,800 40,243 51,710<br />

Gross Debt (NT$ m) 24 0 0 0 0<br />

Interest Expense (NT$ m) (4) (31) 0 0 0<br />

EBIT (NT$ m) 44,133 68,788 18,833 17,951 21,440<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 123.0% 108.5% 114.4% 108.1% 129.2%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.0x 0.0x - - -<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 583.7x 1,208.1x - - -<br />

Interest Cover (x) 12,389.8x 2,220.5x - - -<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (NT$ m) 278,761 465,795 289,245 273,548 280,711<br />

% Change (YoY) 92.9% 67.1% (37.9%) (5.4%) 2.6%<br />

EBITDA (NT$ m) 45,135 71,189 21,656 21,154 25,017<br />

% of Sales 16.2% 15.3% 7.5% 7.7% 8.9%<br />

Net Income (NT$ m) 39,534 61,976 16,621 16,553 19,530<br />

% of Sales 14.2% 13.3% 5.7% 6.1% 7.0%<br />

Free Cash Flow (NT$ m) 40,836 77,802 (3,014) (3,316) 21,500<br />

% of Sales 14.6% 16.7% (1.0%) (1.2%) 7.7%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 64,915 75,697 89,164 52,800 40,243<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 40,836 77,802 (3,014) (3,316) 21,500<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 105,751 153,498 86,150 49,484 61,742<br />

Principal Repayments 65 24 0 0 0<br />

Interest Payments 4 31 0 0 0<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 68 55 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1,546.4x 2,773.0x - - -<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In NT$ m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 89,164 -<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 60,113 -<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 149,277 -<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 -<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 149,277 -<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 0 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

188 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

100.0% 100.0% 100.0%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity<br />

(NT$ m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 416,506 251,831 246,384<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 0 0 0<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

1400.0x<br />

14000.0x<br />

1200.0x<br />

12000.0x<br />

1000.0x<br />

10000.0x<br />

800.0x<br />

8000.0x<br />

600.0x<br />

6000.0x<br />

400.0x<br />

4000.0x<br />

200.0x<br />

2000.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

3000.0x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

2500.0x<br />

2000.0x<br />

1500.0x<br />

1000.0x<br />

1546.4x<br />

2773.0x<br />

500.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0 0<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Share Price (NT$)<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

765<br />

665<br />

565<br />

465<br />

365<br />

265<br />

165<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

HTC Corporation<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (NT$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 278,761 465,795 289,245 273,548 280,711<br />

Operating Expenses (233,626) (394,606) (267,589) (252,395) (255,695)<br />

EBITDA 45,135 71,189 21,656 21,154 25,017<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (1,002) (2,401) (2,823) (3,202) (3,577)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 44,133 68,788 18,833 17,951 21,440<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 310 671 626 406 401<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 566 1,988 (262) 0 0<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 (4) 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 44,964 71,424 19,197 18,357 21,841<br />

Taxes on Profit (5,450) (9,125) (1,883) (1,721) (2,213)<br />

Minority Interests 19 (323) (693) (83) (98)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 39,534 61,976 16,621 16,553 19,530<br />

Balance Sheet (NT$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 13,513 19,382 22,496 25,166 28,995<br />

Long-term Investments 1,232 3,614 3,614 3,614 3,614<br />

Associates 0 72 72 72 72<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 936 22,561 21,784 21,008 20,232<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 21,775 61,165 62,443 64,341 66,865<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 92,910 104,263 60,005 82,326 70,427<br />

Total Current Assets 168,606 193,428 112,805 122,569 122,137<br />

Total Assets 190,382 254,592 175,249 186,910 189,002<br />

Shareholders' Equity 74,714 101,427 84,797 92,209 101,807<br />

Total Equity 74,714 102,419 86,482 93,977 103,673<br />

Long Term Debt 12 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 26 43 43 43 43<br />

Total Current Liabilities 115,641 152,130 88,723 92,890 85,285<br />

Total Liabilities 115,667 152,173 88,766 92,933 85,328<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 190,382 254,592 175,249 186,910 189,002<br />

Cash Flow Statement (NT$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 44,964 71,424 19,197 18,357 21,841<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 1,002 2,401 2,823 3,202 3,577<br />

Tax Paid (4,449) (7,877) (5,330) (3,785) (3,112)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 4,508 20,770 (15,703) (16,090) 5,195<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 46,048 88,507 986 1,684 27,500<br />

Capital Expenditure (5,212) (10,706) (4,000) (5,000) (6,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 1,506 (22,877) 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (3,808) (34,164) (4,100) (5,100) (6,100)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (65) (24) 0 0 0<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net (11,687) (12,022) 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (20,122) (29,891) (33,250) (9,141) (9,932)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (31,877) (41,239) (33,250) (9,141) (9,932)<br />

Change in Cash 10,363 13,105 (36,364) (12,557) 11,468<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 16.2% 15.3% 7.5% 7.7% 8.9%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 15.8% 14.8% 6.5% 6.6% 7.6%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 14.2% 13.3% 5.7% 6.1% 7.0%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 56.3% 70.4% 17.9% 18.7% 20.1%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 28.7% 31.2% 9.1% 10.1% 11.6%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) - 1,613.6% 85.7% 40.6% 39.2%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 220.7% 252.6% 230.8% 204.6% 193.8%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 583.7x 1,208.1x - - -<br />

Interest Cover (x) 12,389.8x 2,220.5x - - -<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 64.4% 57.5% 57.6% 41.5% 58.7%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 145.8% 127.1% 127.1% 132.0% 143.2%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 123.0% 108.5% 114.4% 108.1% 129.2%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

189 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Hyundai Motor Company (005380 KS)<br />

Sector: Consumer Discretionary Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Automobiles & Components<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.0x<br />

Country: Korea<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 85.7%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 2.2x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Hyundai Motor Company is one of South Korea’s leading automobile companies primarily engaged in<br />

the manufacturing and sale of motor vehicles. The company also operates vehicle financing, credit card<br />

processing and other financing activities. In addition, the company is also engaged in R&D, train<br />

manufacturing and certain other activities which cannot be classified as vehicle or finance business.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (KW m) 13,763,337 15,770,965 18,329,622 19,948,555 22,736,913<br />

Gross Debt (KW m) 38,596,248 43,338,660 42,518,466 39,364,850 35,811,234<br />

Interest Expense (KW m) (1,766,216) (1,722,736) (643,928) (614,125) (563,821)<br />

EBIT (KW m) 5,884,458 7,992,142 9,495,615 9,869,955 10,445,421<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 117.4% 107.5% 85.7% 66.1% 51.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 120.9% 128.7% 153.4% 156.5% 161.7%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 5.3x 4.0x 3.7x 3.4x 2.9x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.2x 0.2x 1.0x 1.7x 1.7x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 3.3x 4.6x 14.7x 16.1x 18.5x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (KW m) 66,985,271 77,797,895 84,698,354 90,172,439 95,159,597<br />

% Change (YoY) (26.8%) 16.1% 8.9% 6.5% 5.5%<br />

EBITDA (KW m) 8,039,238 10,326,899 11,718,864 12,205,741 12,880,803<br />

% of Sales 12.0% 13.3% 13.8% 13.5% 13.5%<br />

Net Income (KW m) 4,286,962 5,896,812 7,114,847 7,657,719 8,259,639<br />

% of Sales 6.4% 7.6% 8.4% 8.5% 8.7%<br />

Free Cash Flow (KW m) 2,500,814 1,037,145 3,576,979 4,850,632 6,294,266<br />

% of Sales 3.7% 1.3% 4.2% 5.4% 6.6%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 14,583,845 13,763,337 15,770,965 18,329,622 19,948,555<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2,500,814 1,037,145 3,576,979 4,850,632 6,294,266<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 17,084,659 14,800,482 19,347,944 23,180,254 26,242,822<br />

Principal Repayments 27,043,429 39,998,261 8,320,194 5,153,616 5,553,616<br />

Interest Payments 1,766,216 1,722,736 643,928 614,125 563,821<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 28,809,645 41,720,997 8,964,122 5,767,741 6,117,437<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.6x 0.4x 2.2x 4.0x 4.3x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In KW m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 15,770,965 46.9%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 30,548,826 90.8%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 46,319,791 137.6%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 46,319,791 137.6%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 33,652,261 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

190 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

49.1% 48.0% 47.5%<br />

0.4% 0.4% 0.4%<br />

50.5% 51.6% 52.1%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Preferred Stock Debt<br />

(KW m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 44,574,461 45,725,445 43,109,572<br />

Preferred Stock 331,011 331,011 331,011<br />

Debt 43,338,660 42,518,466 39,364,850<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

2.0x<br />

18.0x<br />

16.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

14.0x<br />

12.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

4.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

4.5x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.5x<br />

3.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

2.5x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

2.2x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.6x<br />

0.4x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (KW)<br />

3,19,575<br />

2,69,575<br />

2,19,575<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

1,69,575<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Hyundai Motor Company<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (KW m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 66,985,271 77,797,895 84,698,354 90,172,439 95,159,597<br />

Operating Expenses (58,946,033) (67,470,996) (72,979,490 (77,966,69 (82,278,794)<br />

EBITDA 8,039,238 10,326,899 11,718,864 12,205,741 12,880,803<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (2,154,780) (2,334,757) (2,223,249) (2,335,787) (2,435,382)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 5,884,458 7,992,142 9,495,615 9,869,955 10,445,421<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (191,937) (35,989) (220,444) (138,189) (32,793)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 287,821 234,366 622,746 408,219 413,206<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 1,717,464 2,272,605 2,627,231 3,093,773 3,405,511<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 7,491,554 10,447,110 12,525,148 13,233,759 14,231,345<br />

Taxes on Profit (1,490,372) (2,342,247) (2,695,296) (2,653,876) (2,819,852)<br />

Minority Interests (434,050) (448,992) (589,791) (634,793) (684,690)<br />

Other Post-tax Items (1,280,170) (1,759,059) (2,125,214) (2,287,371) (2,467,165)<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 4,286,962 5,896,812 7,114,847 7,657,719 8,259,639<br />

Balance Sheet (KW m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 17,510,251 17,889,289 19,807,257 21,443,783 22,865,761<br />

Long-term Investments 3,267,415 2,109,483 2,127,769 2,127,769 2,127,769<br />

Associates 6,909,451 11,709,238 13,745,342 16,143,016 18,782,287<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 2,651,568 2,660,109 2,101,444 1,668,479 1,332,931<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 51,193,977 60,553,625 65,353,718 69,919,865 74,175,081<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 29,756,817 33,155,385 35,409,176 37,338,470 38,832,250<br />

Total Current Assets 43,520,154 48,926,350 53,738,797 57,287,026 61,569,163<br />

Total Assets 94,714,131 109,479,975 119,092,51 127,206,89 135,744,245<br />

Shareholders' Equity 29,766,780 36,782,022 45,541,978 54,928,247 65,053,968<br />

Total Equity 32,887,973 40,327,702 49,588,981 59,514,823 70,222,530<br />

Long Term Debt 22,737,075 27,138,452 29,484,836 25,931,220 21,977,604<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 30,380,672 35,988,765 38,724,628 35,605,760 32,092,454<br />

Total Current Liabilities 31,445,486 33,163,508 30,778,906 32,086,307 33,429,261<br />

Total Liabilities 61,826,158 69,152,273 69,503,535 67,692,068 65,521,714<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 94,714,131 109,479,975 119,092,51 127,206,89 135,744,245<br />

Cash Flow Statement (KW m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 7,491,554 10,447,110 12,525,148 13,233,759 14,231,345<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 2,154,780 2,334,757 2,223,249 2,335,787 2,435,382<br />

Tax Paid (1,078,148) (1,727,257) (2,509,312) (2,610,507) (2,757,048)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (5,214,779) (8,596,090) (4,007,747) (2,987,361) (2,152,042)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 5,376,759 4,699,556 7,076,979 8,350,632 9,794,266<br />

Capital Expenditure (2,875,945) (3,662,411) (3,500,000) (3,500,000) (3,500,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (5,719,454) (3,449,627) 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (7,865,460) (5,960,796) (2,467,340) (2,309,918) (2,184,686)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 5,845,204 3,980,713 (820,194) (3,153,616) (3,553,616)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net (452,515) (400,137) 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (587,864) (457,650) (568,574) (654,040) (703,786)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 3,267,096 1,386,068 (2,032,696) (4,421,781) (4,821,222)<br />

Change in Cash 778,395 124,828 2,576,943 1,618,933 2,788,358<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 12.0% 13.3% 13.8% 13.5% 13.5%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 8.8% 10.3% 11.2% 10.9% 11.0%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 6.4% 7.6% 8.4% 8.5% 8.7%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 16.8% 17.7% 17.3% 15.2% 13.8%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 6.4% 8.3% 8.7% 8.4% 8.3%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 8.1% 10.5% 11.5% 11.5% 11.7%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 117.4% 107.5% 85.7% 66.1% 51.0%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 98.5% 92.0% 68.0% 48.6% 32.2%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 385.6% 306.8% 277.6% 245.1% 219.2%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.2x 0.2x 1.0x 1.7x 1.7x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 3.3x 4.6x 14.7x 16.1x 18.5x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 19.8% 18.8% 28.6% 32.5% 39.5%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 138.4% 147.5% 174.6% 178.5% 184.2%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 120.9% 128.7% 153.4% 156.5% 161.7%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

191 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Idea Cellular Ltd. (IDEA IN)<br />

Sector: Telecommunication Services Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Telecommunication Services Debt Service Cover (x) 1.5x<br />

Country: India<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 82.9%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.9x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

IDEA Cellular Limited (Idea), an Aditya Birla Group company, is the 3rd largest mobile services operator<br />

in India. Idea is a pan-India integrated GSM operator and has its own National Long Distance (NLD) and<br />

International Long Distance (ILD) operations, and Internet Service Provider (ISP) license.<br />

Idea operates 2G services across all 22 service areas in India. The company has 3G licences in 11<br />

circles and has launched 3G services in all these service areas (except Punjab). It has also entered into<br />

roaming arrangement with other operators to provide 3G services in remaining service areas (except<br />

Orissa).<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Mar) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Rs m) 14,777 2,497 3,386 8,684 16,413<br />

Gross Debt (Rs m) 120,705 133,372 117,497 106,975 96,453<br />

Interest Expense (Rs m) (9,229) (11,200) (9,475) (8,826) (7,932)<br />

EBIT (Rs m) 13,535 20,597 25,301 34,381 36,870<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 98.1% 102.2% 82.9% 67.0% 53.6%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 38.2% 29.6% 34.1% 40.0% 49.0%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 2.7x 2.5x 2.0x 1.6x 1.3x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.0x 0.4x 1.5x 3.0x 3.2x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 1.5x 1.8x 2.7x 3.9x 4.6x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (Rs m) 154,384 194,887 234,349 260,116 275,054<br />

% Change (YoY) 24.5% 26.2% 20.2% 11.0% 5.7%<br />

EBITDA (Rs m) 37,508 50,411 61,478 72,023 75,918<br />

% of Sales 24.3% 25.9% 26.2% 27.7% 27.6%<br />

Net Income (Rs m) 8,987 7,230 11,292 17,955 20,293<br />

% of Sales 5.8% 3.7% 4.8% 6.9% 7.4%<br />

Free Cash Flow (Rs m) (34,541) (9,146) 26,065 24,421 25,927<br />

% of Sales (22.4%) (4.7%) 11.1% 9.4% 9.4%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 14,204 14,777 2,497 3,386 8,684<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (34,541) (9,146) 26,065 24,421 25,927<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) (20,337) 5,632 28,562 27,807 34,611<br />

Principal Repayments 25,998 73,496 20,875 10,522 10,522<br />

Interest Payments 9,229 11,200 9,475 8,826 7,932<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 35,227 84,696 30,350 19,348 18,454<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) (0.6x) 0.1x 0.9x 1.4x 1.9x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In Rs m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 2,497 2.4%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 134,612 131.5%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 137,109 133.9%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 137,109 133.9%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 102,376 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

192 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

29.0% 25.4% 23.6%<br />

71.0% 74.6% 76.4%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(Rs m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 326,914 345,940 345,940<br />

Preferred Stock 19 19 19<br />

Debt 133,372 117,497 106,975<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

3.5x<br />

4.5x<br />

3.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

2.5x<br />

3.5x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

2.5x<br />

1.5x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

2.0x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.0x<br />

(0.5x)<br />

(1.0x)<br />

(0.6x)<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

Share Price (Rs)<br />

0.1x<br />

0.9x<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

1.4x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

121<br />

111<br />

101<br />

91<br />

81<br />

71<br />

61<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Idea Cellular Ltd.<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (Rs m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 154,384 194,887 234,349 260,116 275,054<br />

Operating Expenses (116,876) (144,476) (172,871) (188,093) (199,136)<br />

EBITDA 37,508 50,411 61,478 72,023 75,918<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (23,973) (29,813) (36,177) (37,642) (39,047)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 13,535 20,597 25,301 34,381 36,870<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (4,259) (9,805) (9,300) (8,601) (7,676)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 468 (520) 703 780 825<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 9,969 10,553 16,704 26,560 30,020<br />

Taxes on Profit (982) (3,323) (5,412) (8,606) (9,726)<br />

Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 8,987 7,230 11,292 17,955 20,293<br />

Balance Sheet (Rs m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 175,998 201,305 204,342 212,686 220,242<br />

Long-term Investments 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Associates 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 48,912 68,633 62,181 55,728 49,275<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 276,392 308,895 307,650 312,008 314,961<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 17,206 24,556 26,095 27,066 28,173<br />

Total Current Assets 31,984 27,053 29,481 35,750 44,586<br />

Total Assets 308,375 335,948 337,132 347,758 359,546<br />

Shareholders' Equity 122,980 130,483 141,775 159,730 180,023<br />

Total Equity 122,999 130,502 141,794 159,749 180,042<br />

Long Term Debt 89,948 95,222 89,699 79,177 68,655<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 103,361 117,323 111,801 101,279 90,757<br />

Total Current Liabilities 82,015 88,122 83,537 86,730 88,748<br />

Total Liabilities 185,376 205,445 195,338 188,009 179,504<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 308,375 335,948 337,132 347,758 359,546<br />

Cash Flow Statement (Rs m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 9,969 10,553 16,704 26,560 30,020<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 23,973 29,813 36,177 37,642 39,047<br />

Tax Paid (3,327) (4,141) (5,412) (8,606) (9,726)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 15,756 (8,468) 3,946 2,104 639<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 50,932 38,181 61,065 66,421 67,927<br />

Capital Expenditure (85,473) (47,327) (35,000) (42,000) (42,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 271 59 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (83,592) (46,851) (34,826) (41,775) (41,744)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 42,543 7,349 (15,875) (10,522) (10,522)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 138 237 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 33,453 (3,614) (25,350) (19,348) (18,454)<br />

Change in Cash 793 (12,284) 890 5,298 7,729<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 24.3% 25.9% 26.2% 27.7% 27.6%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 8.8% 10.6% 10.8% 13.2% 13.4%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 5.8% 3.7% 4.8% 6.9% 7.4%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 7.6% 5.7% 8.3% 11.9% 11.9%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 5.2% 6.4% 7.6% 10.1% 10.5%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 5.7% 5.4% 6.1% 8.3% 8.9%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 98.1% 102.2% 82.9% 67.0% 53.6%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 94.4% 101.0% 81.2% 62.1% 45.0%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 231.7% 254.2% 247.2% 227.2% 208.2%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.0x 0.4x 1.5x 3.0x 3.2x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 1.5x 1.8x 2.7x 3.9x 4.6x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 5.6% 1.7% 2.9% 8.9% 17.4%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 39.0% 30.7% 35.3% 41.2% 50.2%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 38.2% 29.6% 34.1% 40.0% 49.0%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

193 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Impala Platinum Holdings Limited (IMP SJ)<br />

Sector: Materials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Materials<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 19.8x<br />

Country: South Africa<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 5.1%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 6.2x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Impala Platinum Holdings Limited (Implats) is one of the world’s leading producers of platinum group<br />

metals (PGMs) and associated base metals. The company mines, produces and markets platinum and<br />

other PGMs such as Palladium, Rhodium, Nickel etc. It also provides refining services for base and other<br />

metal producers. In 2011, the company produced 3.77Moz of PGMs and 1.84Moz of platinum, which<br />

accounted for approximately 25% of the global supply. As on 30 June, 2011, the company had<br />

Attributable Mineral Resources of 228 Million Platinum Ounces.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 30 Jun) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (ZAR m) 4,542 1,193 1,766 2,946 4,857<br />

Gross Debt (ZAR m) 1,842 3,003 2,882 2,790 2,732<br />

Interest Expense (ZAR m) (179) (150) (294) (284) (276)<br />

EBIT (ZAR m) 10,193 5,592 7,238 8,332 8,530<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 3.7% 5.7% 5.1% 4.6% 4.3%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 143.2% 108.7% 116.0% 137.5% 164.7%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.2x 0.3x 0.3x 0.3x 0.3x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 8.7x 17.2x 19.8x 25.3x 30.5x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 56.9x 37.3x 24.6x 29.4x 30.9x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (ZAR m) 33,132 27,593 34,319 39,654 43,750<br />

% Change (YoY) 30.2% (16.7%) 24.4% 15.5% 10.3%<br />

EBITDA (ZAR m) 11,826 7,490 9,277 10,571 10,950<br />

% of Sales 35.7% 27.1% 27.0% 26.7% 25.0%<br />

Net Income (ZAR m) 6,638 4,180 4,906 5,661 5,911<br />

% of Sales 20.0% 15.1% 14.3% 14.3% 13.5%<br />

Free Cash Flow (ZAR m) 2,976 (2,306) 1,389 3,003 3,850<br />

% of Sales 9.0% (8.4%) 4.0% 7.6% 8.8%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 3,858 4,542 1,193 1,766 2,946<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2,976 (2,306) 1,389 3,003 3,850<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 6,834 2,236 2,582 4,769 6,796<br />

Principal Repayments 836 197 121 92 57<br />

Interest Payments 179 150 294 284 276<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 1,015 347 415 376 333<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 6.7x 6.4x 6.2x 12.7x 20.4x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In ZAR m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 1,193 70.6%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 16,310 965.0%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 17,503 1,035.6%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 2,800 165.7%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 20,303 1,201.3%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 1,690 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

194 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

3.5%<br />

96.5%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(ZAR m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 82,039 102,996 102,996<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 3,003 2,882 2,790<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

30.0x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

14.0x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

2.7%<br />

97.3%<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Share Price (ZAr)<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

2.6%<br />

97.4%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

25.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

60.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

12.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

20,653<br />

18,653<br />

16,653<br />

14,653<br />

12,653<br />

6.7x 6.4x 6.2x<br />

12.7x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

10,653<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Impala Platinum Holdings Limited<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (ZAR m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 33,132 27,593 34,319 39,654 43,750<br />

Operating Expenses (21,306) (20,103) (25,042) (29,083) (32,800)<br />

EBITDA 11,826 7,490 9,277 10,571 10,950<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (1,633) (1,898) (2,039) (2,239) (2,419)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 10,193 5,592 7,238 8,332 8,530<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 152 (22) (114) (36) 60<br />

Other Income/(Expense) (1,022) 563 (22) (28) (27)<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 238 117 194 233 278<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 9,561 6,250 7,297 8,501 8,842<br />

Taxes on Profit (2,751) (1,951) (2,239) (2,665) (2,748)<br />

Minority Interests (172) (119) (152) (175) (183)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 6,638 4,180 4,906 5,661 5,911<br />

Balance Sheet (ZAR m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 24,777 28,380 32,220 34,253 36,108<br />

Long-term Investments 76 81 81 81 81<br />

Associates 904 1,021 1,192 1,408 1,673<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 1,018 1,018 1,018 1,018 1,018<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 52,808 58,939 64,444 66,878 69,155<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 10,254 12,495 10,722 11,313 11,438<br />

Total Current Assets 14,796 13,688 12,488 14,259 16,295<br />

Total Assets 67,604 72,627 76,932 81,137 85,450<br />

Shareholders' Equity 47,563 50,168 54,122 57,729 61,346<br />

Total Equity 49,610 52,475 56,580 60,363 64,163<br />

Long Term Debt 1,698 2,882 2,790 2,732 2,710<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 11,480 14,076 14,284 14,626 15,004<br />

Total Current Liabilities 6,514 6,076 6,068 6,148 6,283<br />

Total Liabilities 17,994 20,152 20,352 20,774 21,287<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 67,604 72,627 76,932 81,137 85,450<br />

Cash Flow Statement (ZAR m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 9,561 6,250 7,297 8,501 8,842<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 1,633 1,898 2,039 2,239 2,419<br />

Tax Paid (1,805) (1,425) (2,051) (2,259) (2,345)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (371) (1,133) 908 (751) (204)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 8,269 4,978 7,789 7,228 8,075<br />

Capital Expenditure (5,293) (7,284) (6,400) (4,225) (4,225)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (51) 47 53 59 63<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (4,456) (6,758) (6,142) (3,903) (3,813)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (583) 267 (121) (92) (57)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 77 877 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (2,519) (3,364) (953) (2,053) (2,294)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (3,044) (2,264) (1,074) (2,145) (2,352)<br />

Change in Cash 769 (4,044) 573 1,180 1,910<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 35.7% 27.1% 27.0% 26.7% 25.0%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 30.8% 20.3% 21.1% 21.0% 19.5%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 20.0% 15.1% 14.3% 14.3% 13.5%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 14.5% 8.6% 9.4% 10.1% 9.9%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 16.2% 8.3% 9.9% 10.9% 10.6%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 13.5% 6.4% 7.6% 8.3% 8.2%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 3.7% 5.7% 5.1% 4.6% 4.3%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - 3.4% 2.0% - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 142.5% 143.5% 143.4% 141.3% 139.9%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 8.7x 17.2x 19.8x 25.3x 30.5x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 56.9x 37.3x 24.6x 29.4x 30.9x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 69.7% 19.6% 29.1% 47.9% 77.3%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 227.1% 225.3% 205.8% 231.9% 259.3%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 143.2% 108.7% 116.0% 137.5% 164.7%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

195 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Infosys Ltd. (INFO IN)<br />

Sector: Information Technology Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Software & Services<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) -<br />

Country: India<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 0.0%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) -<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Incorporated in 1981, Infosys Technologies Limited is an Indian IT company that predominantly provides<br />

consulting and information technology services to global clients. It is the second largest IT Company by<br />

revenue in India. The Company offers services such as Application Development & Maintenance,<br />

Business Process Management, Consulting Services and Package Implementation, Infrastructure<br />

Management, Product Engineering Services, Systems Integration and Testing Services across industries<br />

as diverse as Insurance, Banking and Financial Services, Manufacturing, Retail, Telecom, Energy and<br />

Utilities, Transportation and Logistics etc.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Mar) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Rs m) 172,430 215,090 256,607 298,780 380,982<br />

Gross Debt (Rs m) 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Interest Expense (Rs m) 0 0 0 0 0<br />

EBIT (Rs m) 81,140 97,950 106,597 115,607 128,998<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 459.5% 438.4% 463.9% 570.4% 534.5%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) - - - - -<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) - - - - -<br />

Interest Cover (x) - - - - -<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (Rs m) 275,010 337,340 395,963 440,213 487,701<br />

% Change (YoY) 20.9% 22.7% 17.4% 11.2% 10.8%<br />

EBITDA (Rs m) 89,680 107,230 116,506 127,537 142,656<br />

% of Sales 32.6% 31.8% 29.4% 29.0% 29.3%<br />

Net Income (Rs m) 68,350 83,320 92,317 101,460 114,755<br />

% of Sales 24.9% 24.7% 23.3% 23.0% 23.5%<br />

Free Cash Flow (Rs m) 34,470 47,770 97,702 116,726 140,595<br />

% of Sales 12.5% 14.2% 24.7% 26.5% 28.8%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 161,460 172,430 215,090 256,607 298,780<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 34,470 47,770 97,702 116,726 140,595<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 195,930 220,200 312,792 373,333 439,375<br />

Principal Repayments 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Interest Payments 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) - - - - -<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In Rs m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 215,090 -<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 700,220 -<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 915,310 -<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 -<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 915,310 -<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 0 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

196 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

100.0% 100.0% 100.0%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity<br />

(Rs m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 1,645,915 1,326,012 1,326,012<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 0 0 0<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

1.0x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

0.8x<br />

0.6x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.0x<br />

0<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

1.0x<br />

0.9x<br />

0.8x<br />

0.7x<br />

0.6x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.3x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.1x<br />

0 0 0 0<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (Rs)<br />

3,305<br />

2,805<br />

2,305<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

1<br />

1<br />

1<br />

0<br />

0<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

1,805<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Infosys Ltd.<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (Rs m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 275,010 337,340 395,963 440,213 487,701<br />

Operating Expenses (185,330) (230,110) (279,457) (312,676) (345,045)<br />

EBITDA 89,680 107,230 116,506 127,537 142,656<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (8,540) (9,280) (9,908) (11,931) (13,658)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 81,140 97,950 106,597 115,607 128,998<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 11,330 18,070 21,824 25,757 31,603<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 780 950 250 250 250<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 93,250 116,990 128,671 141,614 160,851<br />

Taxes on Profit (24,900) (33,670) (36,354) (40,154) (46,096)<br />

Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 68,350 83,320 92,317 101,460 114,755<br />

Balance Sheet (Rs m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 43,190 43,750 49,969 50,533 48,250<br />

Long-term Investments 40 40 40 40 40<br />

Associates 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 9,160 11,800 13,377 14,674 15,856<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 72,900 83,660 96,713 99,145 100,065<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 67,600 87,520 97,848 112,074 122,652<br />

Total Current Assets 240,030 302,610 354,456 410,854 503,634<br />

Total Assets 312,930 386,270 451,169 509,999 603,700<br />

Shareholders' Equity 259,760 313,320 370,834 434,043 505,536<br />

Total Equity 259,760 313,320 370,834 434,043 505,536<br />

Long Term Debt 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 930 3,930 3,930 3,930 3,930<br />

Total Current Liabilities 52,240 69,020 76,405 72,026 94,234<br />

Total Liabilities 53,170 72,950 80,335 75,956 98,164<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 312,930 386,270 451,169 509,999 603,700<br />

Cash Flow Statement (Rs m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 93,250 116,990 128,671 141,614 160,851<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 8,540 9,280 9,908 11,931 13,658<br />

Tax Paid (28,460) (31,170) (36,354) (40,154) (46,096)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (14,280) (14,190) (6,248) (10,317) (7,266)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 47,520 63,080 117,702 128,726 152,595<br />

Capital Expenditure (13,050) (15,310) (20,000) (12,000) (12,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 35,550 (4,270) 12 13 15<br />

Cash Flow from Investing 33,980 (1,470) (41,712) (37,639) (43,434)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 240 60 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (36,640) (23,280) (34,472) (48,914) (26,960)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (36,400) (23,220) (34,472) (48,914) (26,960)<br />

Change in Cash 45,100 38,390 41,517 42,173 82,202<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 32.6% 31.8% 29.4% 29.0% 29.3%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 29.5% 29.0% 26.9% 26.3% 26.5%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 24.9% 24.7% 23.3% 23.0% 23.5%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 27.9% 29.1% 27.0% 25.2% 24.4%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 31.3% 33.2% 30.7% 29.4% 28.8%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 74.6% 73.3% 69.5% 64.4% 68.8%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 120.4% 122.0% 122.4% 119.4% 118.5%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) - - - - -<br />

Interest Cover (x) - - - - -<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 319.0% 298.3% 323.8% 402.1% 394.6%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 459.5% 438.4% 463.9% 570.4% 534.5%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 459.5% 438.4% 463.9% 570.4% 534.5%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

197 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Inotera Memories, Inc (3474 TT)<br />

Sector: Information Technology Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Semiconductors & Semiconductor Debt Service Cover (x) 0.5x<br />

Country: Taiwan<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 264.4%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.6x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Inotera Memories, Inc. is a joint venture between Nanya Technology Corporation (an affiliate of the<br />

Formosa Plastics Group) and Micron Technology, Inc. Inotera provides provides DRAM foundry services<br />

on 300mm silicon wafers. According to the supply agreement between Inotera and its customers, Micron<br />

and Nanya Technology, the company’s manufacturing capacity are reserved for Micron and Nanya<br />

Technology.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (NT$ m) 5,109 5,464 9,158 12,974 18,191<br />

Gross Debt (NT$ m) 68,409 58,989 47,557 43,102 38,551<br />

Interest Expense (NT$ m) (1,305) (1,644) (1,469) (1,230) (1,101)<br />

EBIT (NT$ m) (9,214) (19,870) (13,225) (5,923) (2,746)<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 128.4% 181.8% 264.4% 395.8% 540.2%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 40.7% 25.8% 37.2% 51.2% 63.6%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 2.8x 5.0x 3.1x 1.9x 1.5x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.0x 0.8x 0.5x 1.5x 1.7x<br />

Interest Cover (x) - - - - -<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (NT$ m) 41,454 37,385 34,989 39,643 42,862<br />

% Change (YoY) 14.8% (9.8%) (6.4%) 13.3% 8.1%<br />

EBITDA (NT$ m) 22,655 12,758 17,012 24,088 27,283<br />

% of Sales 54.7% 34.1% 48.6% 60.8% 63.7%<br />

Net Income (NT$ m) (10,661) (21,003) (14,462) (7,094) (3,753)<br />

% of Sales (25.7%) (56.2%) (41.3%) (17.9%) (8.8%)<br />

Free Cash Flow (NT$ m) (26,418) (9,590) 15,529 8,674 10,169<br />

% of Sales (63.7%) (25.7%) 44.4% 21.9% 23.7%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 5,376 5,109 5,464 9,158 12,974<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (26,418) (9,590) 15,529 8,674 10,169<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) (21,042) (4,481) 20,992 17,831 23,143<br />

Principal Repayments 21,161 14,906 31,431 14,455 14,551<br />

Interest Payments 1,305 1,644 1,469 1,230 1,101<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 22,466 16,551 32,900 15,686 15,652<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) (0.9x) (0.3x) 0.6x 1.1x 1.5x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In NT$ m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 5,464 5.9%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 53,499 57.8%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 58,963 63.7%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 24 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 58,987 63.7%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 92,533 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

198 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

71.8% 72.6% 70.7%<br />

28.2% 27.4% 29.3%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(NT$ m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 23,208 17,963 17,824<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 58,989 47,557 43,102<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

1.8x<br />

1.6x<br />

1<br />

1.4x<br />

1<br />

1.2x<br />

1.0x<br />

1<br />

0.8x<br />

0.6x<br />

0<br />

0.4x<br />

0.2x<br />

0<br />

0.0x<br />

0<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

1.5x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.0x<br />

(0.5x)<br />

(1.0x)<br />

(1.5x)<br />

(0.9x)<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

Share Price (NT$)<br />

9.78<br />

7.78<br />

5.78<br />

3.78<br />

0.6x<br />

2010A 2011A<br />

(0.3x)<br />

2012F 2013F<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

1.1x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

1.78<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Inotera Memories, Inc<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (NT$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 41,454 37,385 34,989 39,643 42,862<br />

Operating Expenses (18,799) (24,627) (17,977) (15,554) (15,578)<br />

EBITDA 22,655 12,758 17,012 24,088 27,283<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (31,869) (32,628) (30,238) (30,012) (30,030)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) (9,214) (19,870) (13,225) (5,923) (2,746)<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (1,273) (1,600) (1,436) (1,170) (1,007)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 31 376 200 0 0<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax (10,661) (21,003) (14,462) (7,094) (3,753)<br />

Taxes on Profit 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) (10,661) (21,003) (14,462) (7,094) (3,753)<br />

Balance Sheet (NT$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 107,139 96,270 72,784 54,038 36,801<br />

Long-term Investments 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Associates 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 723 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 124,398 102,531 76,302 58,337 41,357<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 12,763 12,995 11,258 12,611 15,650<br />

Total Current Assets 17,871 18,459 20,416 25,584 33,841<br />

Total Assets 142,269 120,989 96,718 83,921 75,198<br />

Shareholders' Equity 53,269 32,446 17,984 10,890 7,137<br />

Total Equity 53,269 32,446 17,984 10,890 7,137<br />

Long Term Debt 53,504 26,620 32,633 28,317 22,000<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 56,189 29,129 34,959 30,438 23,895<br />

Total Current Liabilities 32,811 59,414 43,775 42,593 44,167<br />

Total Liabilities 89,000 88,544 78,734 73,031 68,061<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 142,269 120,989 96,718 83,921 75,198<br />

Cash Flow Statement (NT$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) (10,661) (21,003) (14,462) (7,094) (3,753)<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 31,869 32,628 30,238 30,012 30,030<br />

Tax Paid 0 0 0 0 0<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 243 (1,365) 6,240 3,412 1,676<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 22,763 11,399 22,547 25,729 28,229<br />

Capital Expenditure (49,181) (20,989) (7,018) (17,055) (18,060)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 267 907 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (48,968) (19,991) (6,994) (17,031) (18,035)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 10,262 (9,661) (11,431) (4,455) (4,551)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 14,599 34 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 26,055 8,971 (11,859) (4,882) (4,977)<br />

Change in Cash (149) 379 3,694 3,816 5,217<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 54.7% 34.1% 48.6% 60.8% 63.7%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) (22.2%) (53.1%) (37.8%) (14.9%) (6.4%)<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) (25.7%) (56.2%) (41.3%) (17.9%) (8.8%)<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) (20.9%) (49.0%) (57.4%) (49.1%) (41.6%)<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) (7.0%) (15.1%) (12.1%) (6.5%) (3.3%)<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) (8.1%) (19.1%) (18.0%) (11.6%) (7.6%)<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 128.4% 181.8% 264.4% 395.8% 540.2%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 118.8% 165.0% 213.5% 276.7% 285.3%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 257.3% 307.1% 431.7% 625.6% 882.7%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.0x 0.8x 0.5x 1.5x 1.7x<br />

Interest Cover (x) - - - - -<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 15.6% 9.2% 20.9% 30.5% 41.2%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 54.5% 31.1% 46.6% 60.1% 76.6%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 40.7% 25.8% 37.2% 51.2% 63.6%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

199 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Jardine Cycle & Carriage Limited (JCNC SP)<br />

Sector: Consumer Discretionary Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Retailing<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.6x<br />

Country: Singapore<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 44.1%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.6x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Jardine Cycle & Carriage (“JC&C”) is a leading Singapore-listed company and a member of the Jardine<br />

Matheson Group. It has an interest of just over 50% in Astra, a premier listed Indonesian conglomerate,<br />

as well as other motor interests in Southeast Asia. Together with its subsidiaries and associates, JC&C<br />

employs some 182,000 people across Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (US$ m) 844 1,509 1,670 946 670<br />

Gross Debt (US$ m) 3,548 5,065 5,034 4,290 3,575<br />

Interest Expense (US$ m) (53) (78) (103) (89) (78)<br />

EBIT (US$ m) 1,640 2,069 2,139 2,401 2,671<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 44.0% 50.8% 44.1% 32.6% 23.7%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 96.0% 108.9% 152.9% 137.2% 135.7%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 1.4x 1.6x 1.7x 1.4x 1.1x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.7x 0.5x 0.6x 0.9x 1.0x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 31.2x 26.5x 20.8x 27.1x 34.4x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (US$ m) 15,680 20,084 21,385 24,011 26,709<br />

% Change (YoY) 47.4% 28.1% 6.5% 12.3% 11.2%<br />

EBITDA (US$ m) 2,158 2,708 2,903 3,219 3,531<br />

% of Sales 13.8% 13.5% 13.6% 13.4% 13.2%<br />

Net Income (US$ m) 944 1,030 1,048 1,202 1,349<br />

% of Sales 6.0% 5.1% 4.9% 5.0% 5.1%<br />

Free Cash Flow (US$ m) (381) (137) 954 788 1,298<br />

% of Sales (2.4%) (0.7%) 4.5% 3.3% 4.9%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 964 844 1,509 1,670 946<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (381) (137) 954 788 1,298<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 583 707 2,463 2,458 2,243<br />

Principal Repayments 2,569 4,286 4,031 2,744 2,715<br />

Interest Payments 53 78 103 89 78<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 2,622 4,364 4,134 2,833 2,793<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.2x 0.2x 0.6x 0.9x 0.8x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In US$ m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 1,509 9.9%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 6,852 44.8%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 8,361 54.6%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 1,551 10.1%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 9,913 64.8%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 15,303 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

200 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

27.7% 26.4% 23.3%<br />

72.3% 73.6% 76.7%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(US$ m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 13,201 14,018 14,110<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 5,065 5,034 4,290<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

1.0x<br />

35.0x<br />

0.8x<br />

30.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

0.6x<br />

20.0x<br />

0.4x<br />

15.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

0.2x<br />

5.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

1.0x<br />

0.9x<br />

0.8x<br />

0.9x<br />

0.7x<br />

0.6x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.6x<br />

0.3x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.1x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.2x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (S$)<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

64<br />

59<br />

54<br />

49<br />

44<br />

39<br />

34<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Jardine Cycle & Carriage Limited<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (US$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 15,680 20,084 21,385 24,011 26,709<br />

Operating Expenses (13,523) (17,375) (18,483) (20,792) (23,177)<br />

EBITDA 2,158 2,708 2,903 3,219 3,531<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (517) (640) (764) (818) (860)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 1,640 2,069 2,139 2,401 2,671<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 8 7 (31) (28) (37)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 599 268 281 316 353<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 578 674 686 826 949<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 2,827 3,026 3,075 3,515 3,935<br />

Taxes on Profit (583) (583) (609) (686) (761)<br />

Minority Interests (1,300) (1,413) (1,418) (1,627) (1,825)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 944 1,030 1,048 1,202 1,349<br />

Balance Sheet (US$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 3,500 4,661 4,989 5,268 5,509<br />

Long-term Investments 410 595 594 594 594<br />

Associates 2,212 2,409 2,752 3,165 3,639<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 694 903 956 1,007 1,054<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 9,053 11,482 12,420 13,619 14,748<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 4,639 6,104 6,128 7,226 7,929<br />

Total Current Assets 5,482 7,613 7,798 8,171 8,598<br />

Total Assets 14,535 19,095 20,218 21,791 23,346<br />

Shareholders' Equity 3,743 4,407 5,018 5,792 6,651<br />

Total Equity 8,057 9,966 11,414 13,147 15,083<br />

Long Term Debt 1,550 2,641 3,931 3,221 2,511<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 2,132 3,467 4,694 4,010 3,315<br />

Total Current Liabilities 4,346 5,663 4,110 4,633 4,948<br />

Total Liabilities 6,478 9,130 8,804 8,644 8,263<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 14,535 19,095 20,218 21,791 23,346<br />

Cash Flow Statement (US$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 2,827 3,026 3,075 3,515 3,935<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 517 640 764 818 860<br />

Tax Paid (599) (547) (594) (677) (753)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (1,602) (1,629) (518) (953) (716)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 334 969 2,079 1,913 2,423<br />

Capital Expenditure (715) (1,107) (1,125) (1,125) (1,125)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (274) (507) (50) (50) (50)<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (571) (1,040) (768) (710) (668)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 980 1,424 (31) (744) (715)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (645) (889) (1,018) (1,095) (1,238)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 91 759 (1,151) (1,928) (2,031)<br />

Change in Cash (146) 689 160 (724) (276)<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 13.8% 13.5% 13.6% 13.4% 13.2%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 10.5% 10.3% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 6.0% 5.1% 4.9% 5.0% 5.1%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 28.4% 25.3% 22.2% 22.2% 21.7%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 13.3% 12.8% 11.2% 11.7% 12.0%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 17.5% 16.6% 14.6% 15.0% 15.3%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 44.0% 50.8% 44.1% 32.6% 23.7%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 33.6% 35.7% 29.5% 25.5% 19.3%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 382.9% 412.7% 417.1% 388.6% 362.7%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.7x 0.5x 0.6x 0.9x 1.0x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 31.2x 26.5x 20.8x 27.1x 34.4x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 19.3% 26.6% 40.5% 20.3% 13.4%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 126.1% 134.4% 189.7% 176.4% 173.8%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 96.0% 108.9% 152.9% 137.2% 135.7%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

201 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Jardine Matheson Holdings Limited (JM SP)<br />

Sector: Industrials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Capital Goods<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.2x<br />

Country: Singapore<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 20.5%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.4x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Jardine Matheson was formed as a trading partnership over 175 years ago in 1832 by William Jardine<br />

and James Matheson. Since its formation, there has been a constant evolution in the nature of its<br />

business interests which have kept pace with the times. Today, its businesses are at the forefront of their<br />

chosen markets. They include engineering and construction, transport services, insurance broking,<br />

property investment and development, retailing, restaurants, luxury hotels, motor vehicles and related<br />

activities, financial services, heavy equipment, mining and agribusiness. Incorporated in Bermuda,<br />

Jardine Matheson Holdings Limited operates from Hong Kong and provides management services to<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (US$ m) 4,281 4,190 4,439 5,037 6,516<br />

Gross Debt (US$ m) 8,882 10,067 8,650 7,829 6,953<br />

Interest Expense (US$ m) (214) (249) (272) (248) (224)<br />

EBIT (US$ m) 3,023 3,486 3,533 3,966 4,344<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 27.8% 25.6% 20.5% 17.3% 14.2%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 100.5% 109.4% 115.3% 117.0% 127.4%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 2.2x 2.2x 2.0x 1.6x 1.4x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.3x 0.2x 0.2x 0.3x 0.3x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 14.1x 14.0x 13.0x 16.0x 19.4x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (US$ m) 30,053 37,967 40,537 45,384 49,984<br />

% Change (YoY) 33.6% 26.3% 6.8% 12.0% 10.1%<br />

EBITDA (US$ m) 3,785 4,400 4,594 5,060 5,466<br />

% of Sales 12.6% 11.6% 11.3% 11.1% 10.9%<br />

Net Income (US$ m) 3,084 3,449 1,539 1,754 1,927<br />

% of Sales 10.3% 9.1% 3.8% 3.9% 3.9%<br />

Free Cash Flow (US$ m) 436 344 2,167 2,010 3,013<br />

% of Sales 1.5% 0.9% 5.3% 4.4% 6.0%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 4,096 4,281 4,190 4,439 5,037<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 436 344 2,167 2,010 3,013<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 4,532 4,625 6,357 6,449 8,050<br />

Principal Repayments 10,040 16,602 16,417 15,821 15,875<br />

Interest Payments 214 249 272 248 224<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 10,254 16,851 16,689 16,069 16,099<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.4x 0.3x 0.4x 0.4x 0.5x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In US$ m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 4,190 5.2%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 14,740 18.2%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 18,930 23.4%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 4,200 5.2%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 23,130 28.6%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 80,996 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

202 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

24.5%<br />

75.5%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

17.5%<br />

82.5%<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(US$ m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 31,006 40,858 41,069<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 10,067 8,650 7,829<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

0.4x<br />

18.0x<br />

0.4x<br />

16.0x<br />

0.3x<br />

14.0x<br />

0.3x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.2x<br />

12.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

0.1x<br />

4.0x<br />

0.1x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

0.5x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.3x<br />

0.3x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.1x<br />

0.1x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.3x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (US$)<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

16.0%<br />

84.0%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

75<br />

70<br />

65<br />

60<br />

55<br />

50<br />

45<br />

40<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Jardine Matheson Holdings Limited<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (US$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 30,053 37,967 40,537 45,384 49,984<br />

Operating Expenses (26,268) (33,567) (35,944) (40,324) (44,518)<br />

EBITDA 3,785 4,400 4,594 5,060 5,466<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (762) (914) (1,061) (1,094) (1,122)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 3,023 3,486 3,533 3,966 4,344<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (109) (94) (140) (119) (96)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 338 377 516 579 643<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 973 998 998 1,138 1,229<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 8,631 9,488 5,151 5,564 6,120<br />

Taxes on Profit (847) (873) (934) (1,009) (1,115)<br />

Minority Interests (2,127) (2,427) (2,505) (2,801) (3,078)<br />

Other Post-tax Items (2,573) (2,739) (173) 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 3,084 3,449 1,539 1,754 1,927<br />

Balance Sheet (US$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 24,196 29,961 30,995 31,378 31,738<br />

Long-term Investments 1,044 1,095 986 887 799<br />

Associates 6,385 7,256 7,341 7,682 8,051<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 1,958 2,310 2,387 2,459 2,527<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 35,716 43,349 44,689 45,922 46,936<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 8,079 10,758 11,287 12,985 13,718<br />

Total Current Assets 12,360 14,948 15,726 18,022 20,233<br />

Total Assets 48,076 58,297 60,416 63,943 67,169<br />

Shareholders' Equity 13,710 16,356 17,417 18,670 20,032<br />

Total Equity 31,960 39,262 42,131 45,344 48,861<br />

Long Term Debt 5,422 7,050 6,169 5,288 4,406<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 6,480 8,363 7,524 6,688 5,829<br />

Total Current Liabilities 9,636 10,672 10,761 11,912 12,480<br />

Total Liabilities 16,116 19,035 18,285 18,599 18,308<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 48,076 58,297 60,416 63,943 67,169<br />

Cash Flow Statement (US$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 8,631 9,488 5,151 5,564 6,120<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 762 914 1,061 1,094 1,122<br />

Tax Paid (865) (808) (920) (989) (1,087)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (1,874) (2,139) (130) (1,116) (484)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 1,584 2,057 4,087 3,560 4,563<br />

Capital Expenditure (1,148) (1,713) (1,920) (1,550) (1,550)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (287) (818) 274 99 89<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (532) (1,809) (800) (551) (497)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 834 1,312 (1,417) (821) (875)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 6 1 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (1,000) (1,179) (1,348) (1,341) (1,488)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (919) (332) (3,038) (2,410) (2,588)<br />

Change in Cash 133 (84) 250 599 1,479<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 12.6% 11.6% 11.3% 11.1% 10.9%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 10.1% 9.2% 8.7% 8.7% 8.7%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 10.3% 9.1% 3.8% 3.9% 3.9%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 25.3% 22.9% 9.1% 9.7% 10.0%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 7.2% 6.8% 6.1% 6.5% 6.8%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 10.1% 9.3% 7.5% 8.1% 8.6%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 27.8% 25.6% 20.5% 17.3% 14.2%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 14.4% 15.0% 10.0% 6.2% 0.9%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 356.1% 353.8% 351.5% 344.6% 338.8%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.3x 0.2x 0.2x 0.3x 0.3x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 14.1x 14.0x 13.0x 16.0x 19.4x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 44.4% 39.2% 41.2% 42.3% 52.2%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 128.3% 140.1% 146.1% 151.3% 162.1%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 100.5% 109.4% 115.3% 117.0% 127.4%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

203 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Jardine Strategic Holdings Ltd (JS SP)<br />

Sector: Industrials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Capital Goods<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.4x<br />

Country: Singapore<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 18.4%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.7x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Incorporated in Bermuda, Jardine Strategic is a holding company with its principal interests in Jardine<br />

Matheson, Hongkong Land, Dairy Farm, Mandarin Oriental, Jardine Cycle & Carriage and Astra<br />

International. These companies are leaders in the fields of engineering and construction, transport<br />

services, insurance broking, property investment and development, retailing, restaurants, luxury hotels,<br />

motor vehicles and related activities, financial services, heavy equipment, mining and agribusiness.<br />

Jardine Strategic also has a minority investment in Rothschilds Continuation, the global financial<br />

advisory group.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (US$ m) 3,899 3,925 4,376 4,661 5,775<br />

Gross Debt (US$ m) 8,586 9,239 7,844 6,827 5,736<br />

Interest Expense (US$ m) (199) (224) (235) (204) (181)<br />

EBIT (US$ m) 2,797 3,250 3,380 3,801 4,162<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 27.0% 23.5% 18.4% 14.8% 11.5%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 104.5% 120.1% 121.0% 120.2% 126.4%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 2.3x 2.2x 2.0x 1.5x 1.2x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.5x 0.5x 0.4x 0.5x 0.5x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 14.1x 14.5x 14.4x 18.6x 23.0x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (US$ m) 25,498 31,049 33,079 37,184 40,963<br />

% Change (YoY) 34.9% 21.8% 6.5% 12.4% 10.2%<br />

EBITDA (US$ m) 3,527 4,123 4,362 4,833 5,233<br />

% of Sales 13.8% 13.3% 13.2% 13.0% 12.8%<br />

Net Income (US$ m) 3,535 3,943 1,646 1,888 2,086<br />

% of Sales 13.9% 12.7% 5.0% 5.1% 5.1%<br />

Free Cash Flow (US$ m) 417 267 2,349 1,932 2,880<br />

% of Sales 1.6% 0.9% 7.1% 5.2% 7.0%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 3,680 3,899 3,925 4,376 4,661<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 417 267 2,349 1,932 2,880<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 4,097 4,166 6,274 6,307 7,541<br />

Principal Repayments 5,630 7,247 8,895 8,517 8,591<br />

Interest Payments 199 224 235 204 181<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 5,829 7,471 9,131 8,722 8,772<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.7x 0.6x 0.7x 0.7x 0.9x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In US$ m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 3,925 8.9%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 13,774 31.2%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 17,699 40.1%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 4,000 9.1%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 21,699 49.2%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 44,121 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

204 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

23.0%<br />

77.0%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(US$ m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 30,990 39,782 40,443<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 9,239 7,844 6,827<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

0.6x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

0.8x<br />

0.7x<br />

0.7x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

16.5%<br />

83.5%<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Share Price (US$)<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

14.4%<br />

85.6%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

0.5x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.3x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.1x<br />

20.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

0.6x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.3x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.1x<br />

44<br />

39<br />

34<br />

29<br />

0.6x<br />

0.7x<br />

0.7x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

24<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Jardine Strategic Holdings Ltd<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (US$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 25,498 31,049 33,079 37,184 40,963<br />

Operating Expenses (21,971) (26,926) (28,716) (32,350) (35,730)<br />

EBITDA 3,527 4,123 4,362 4,833 5,233<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (730) (873) (983) (1,032) (1,071)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 2,797 3,250 3,380 3,801 4,162<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (96) (69) (107) (89) (78)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 330 373 381 430 479<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 994 1,022 1,015 1,193 1,328<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 8,412 9,262 4,918 5,335 5,890<br />

Taxes on Profit (803) (836) (923) (994) (1,095)<br />

Minority Interests (1,887) (2,169) (2,192) (2,453) (2,709)<br />

Other Post-tax Items (2,187) (2,314) (157) 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 3,535 3,943 1,646 1,888 2,086<br />

Balance Sheet (US$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 23,593 29,275 30,336 30,731 31,091<br />

Long-term Investments 1,018 1,065 1,065 1,065 1,065<br />

Associates 7,021 7,691 8,341 9,278 10,321<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 1,888 2,126 2,203 2,276 2,345<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 35,587 42,827 44,955 46,868 48,668<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 7,111 9,401 9,810 11,069 11,741<br />

Total Current Assets 11,010 13,326 14,185 15,730 17,516<br />

Total Assets 46,597 56,153 59,141 62,598 66,184<br />

Shareholders' Equity 16,350 19,652 21,154 22,884 24,791<br />

Total Equity 31,796 39,261 42,525 46,095 50,033<br />

Long Term Debt 5,329 6,622 5,518 4,415 3,311<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 6,307 7,801 6,719 5,650 4,575<br />

Total Current Liabilities 8,494 9,091 9,897 10,853 11,576<br />

Total Liabilities 14,801 16,892 16,615 16,503 16,151<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 46,597 56,153 59,141 62,598 66,184<br />

Cash Flow Statement (US$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 8,412 9,262 4,918 5,335 5,890<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 730 873 983 1,032 1,071<br />

Tax Paid (835) (761) (863) (961) (1,062)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (1,684) (2,050) 310 (895) (295)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 1,525 1,882 4,219 3,432 4,380<br />

Capital Expenditure (1,108) (1,615) (1,870) (1,500) (1,500)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (324) (397) 12 (150) (150)<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (658) (1,429) (1,294) (1,029) (996)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 829 835 (1,395) (1,017) (1,091)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net (9) 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (37) (98) (256) (283) (321)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (693) (412) (2,474) (2,118) (2,270)<br />

Change in Cash 174 41 450 285 1,114<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 13.8% 13.3% 13.2% 13.0% 12.8%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 11.0% 10.5% 10.2% 10.2% 10.2%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 13.9% 12.7% 5.0% 5.1% 5.1%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 24.3% 21.9% 8.1% 8.6% 8.8%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 6.9% 6.6% 6.0% 6.4% 6.6%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 9.6% 8.9% 7.3% 8.0% 8.6%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 27.0% 23.5% 18.4% 14.8% 11.5%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 14.8% 13.5% 8.2% 4.7% -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 290.0% 285.4% 282.5% 276.4% 270.1%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.5x 0.5x 0.4x 0.5x 0.5x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 14.1x 14.5x 14.4x 18.6x 23.0x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 45.8% 43.1% 44.2% 42.9% 49.9%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 129.6% 146.6% 143.3% 144.9% 151.3%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 104.5% 120.1% 121.0% 120.2% 126.4%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

205 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


JSW Steel Ltd. (JSTL IN)<br />

Sector: Materials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Materials<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.5x<br />

Country: India<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 86.9%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.6x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

JSW Steel Limited is the third largest steel producer in India with a total installed capacity of 11 million<br />

tones of crude steel. The company plans to increase its capacity to 14 million tones per annum by the<br />

end of FY14 and this expansion is expected to make it India’s second largest steel producer. JSW Steel<br />

Limited has a diversified portfolio of products which include MS slabs, hot rolled coils, strips and sheets,<br />

hot rolled steel plates, galvanized coils, cold rolled coils, color coating coils, steel billets and blooms, long<br />

rolled, bars and wire rods.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Mar) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Rs m) 23,063 32,510 13,688 21,223 34,175<br />

Gross Debt (Rs m) 137,293 142,649 158,521 170,334 154,498<br />

Interest Expense (Rs m) (10,007) (11,430) (18,664) (17,758) (17,703)<br />

EBIT (Rs m) 33,082 41,687 49,675 56,284 68,347<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 82.0% 84.1% 86.9% 83.0% 65.7%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 29.7% 33.5% 24.5% 27.7% 30.9%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 3.2x 2.3x 2.1x 2.1x 1.7x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.6x 1.0x 1.5x 1.4x 1.4x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 3.3x 3.6x 2.7x 3.2x 3.9x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (Rs m) 241,059 343,681 377,832 415,880 447,922<br />

% Change (YoY) 27.2% 42.6% 9.9% 10.1% 7.7%<br />

EBITDA (Rs m) 48,679 61,019 70,971 80,148 94,305<br />

% of Sales 20.2% 17.8% 18.8% 19.3% 21.1%<br />

Net Income (Rs m) 17,540 5,377 16,322 26,799 35,030<br />

% of Sales 7.3% 1.6% 4.3% 6.4% 7.8%<br />

Free Cash Flow (Rs m) (24,842) (5,671) (10,940) 19,901 52,711<br />

% of Sales (10.3%) (1.6%) (2.9%) 4.8% 11.8%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 3,030 23,063 32,510 13,688 21,223<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (24,842) (5,671) (10,940) 19,901 52,711<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) (21,811) 17,392 21,569 33,588 73,933<br />

Principal Repayments 51,407 37,260 19,090 26,187 34,836<br />

Interest Payments 10,007 11,430 18,664 17,758 17,703<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 61,413 48,690 37,754 43,945 52,539<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) (0.4x) 0.4x 0.6x 0.8x 1.4x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In Rs m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 32,510 13.5%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 159,774 66.2%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 192,284 79.6%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 192,284 79.6%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 241,466 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

46.6% 45.8% 47.6%<br />

0.9% 0.8% 0.8%<br />

52.5% 53.4% 51.6%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Preferred Stock Debt<br />

(Rs m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 160,968 184,585 184,585<br />

Preferred Stock 2,790 2,790 2,790<br />

Debt 142,649 158,521 170,334<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

1.6x<br />

4.0x<br />

1.4x<br />

3.5x<br />

1.2x<br />

3.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

2.5x<br />

0.8x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.6x<br />

1.5x<br />

0.4x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

1.0x<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EJ118316 Corp Callable/Sink/Puttable Secured Rs 10,000.0 10,000.0 100.00 16-Mar-2012 16-Mar-2023 11.00% 1<br />

EI203087 Corp At Maturity Secured Rs 5,000.0 5,000.0 100.00 15-Mar-2010 15-Mar-2018 10.10% 4<br />

EI558662 Corp At Maturity Secured Rs 5,000.0 5,000.0 N.A. 04-Nov-2009 04-Nov-2017 10.10% 4<br />

206 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (Rs)<br />

0.8x<br />

0.6x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.0x<br />

(0.2x)<br />

(0.4x)<br />

(0.6x)<br />

(0.4x)<br />

0.4x<br />

0.6x<br />

0.8x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

1031<br />

931<br />

831<br />

731<br />

631<br />

531<br />

431<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

JSW Steel Ltd.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (Rs m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 241,059 343,681 377,832 415,880 447,922<br />

Operating Expenses (192,380) (282,662) (306,861) (335,732) (353,617)<br />

EBITDA 48,679 61,019 70,971 80,148 94,305<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (15,597) (19,332) (21,296) (23,864) (25,958)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 33,082 41,687 49,675 56,284 68,347<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (9,810) (13,947) (18,409) (17,538) (17,363)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 1,107 443 791 864 924<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 24,379 19,934 30,346 39,609 51,908<br />

Taxes on Profit (7,785) (5,002) (10,832) (12,833) (16,818)<br />

Minority Interests 239 (189) (299) (298) (390)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 707 (9,366) (2,893) 321 330<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 17,540 5,377 16,322 26,799 35,030<br />

Balance Sheet (Rs m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 257,908 325,293 367,666 387,874 405,842<br />

Long-term Investments 26,437 18,856 16,013 16,385 16,814<br />

Associates 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 11,536 13,127 13,227 13,326 13,425<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 373,120 414,628 446,280 460,772 479,224<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 65,462 95,157 109,430 115,397 123,700<br />

Total Current Assets 88,525 127,667 123,118 136,619 157,875<br />

Total Assets 461,645 542,295 569,398 597,391 637,098<br />

Shareholders' Equity 162,503 164,705 177,246 199,767 229,294<br />

Total Equity 167,512 169,672 182,512 205,332 235,248<br />

Long Term Debt 113,349 128,891 142,184 151,014 132,344<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 144,559 164,376 179,798 188,628 169,958<br />

Total Current Liabilities 149,574 208,247 207,089 203,432 231,892<br />

Total Liabilities 294,133 372,623 386,886 392,060 401,850<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 461,645 542,295 569,398 597,391 637,098<br />

Cash Flow Statement (Rs m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 24,379 19,934 30,346 39,609 51,908<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 15,597 19,332 21,296 23,864 25,958<br />

Tax Paid (4,264) (4,071) (6,933) (8,213) (10,764)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (13,137) (10,622) (17,268) (13,934) 13,270<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 28,302 35,124 45,060 58,001 96,811<br />

Capital Expenditure (53,144) (40,795) (56,000) (38,100) (44,100)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (2,153) 935 108 116 120<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (76,331) (41,006) (55,693) (40,452) (44,963)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 4,008 21,909 29,910 11,813 (15,836)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (2,397) (3,501) (4,347) (4,080) (5,347)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 50,961 6,978 (8,189) (10,014) (38,895)<br />

Change in Cash 2,932 1,096 (18,822) 7,535 12,952<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 20.2% 17.8% 18.8% 19.3% 21.1%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 13.7% 12.1% 13.1% 13.5% 15.3%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 7.3% 1.6% 4.3% 6.4% 7.8%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 13.9% 3.3% 9.5% 14.2% 16.3%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 8.3% 8.4% 9.0% 9.7% 11.1%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 8.0% 10.7% 9.9% 10.5% 12.3%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 82.0% 84.1% 86.9% 83.0% 65.7%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 69.8% 66.1% 80.5% 73.6% 52.0%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 324.4% 306.8% 325.1% 309.5% 287.7%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.6x 1.0x 1.5x 1.4x 1.4x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 3.3x 3.6x 2.7x 3.2x 3.9x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 13.6% 14.6% 5.6% 9.4% 13.9%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 59.2% 61.3% 59.5% 67.2% 68.1%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 29.7% 33.5% 24.5% 27.7% 30.9%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

207 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Kangwon Land, Inc. (035250 KS)<br />

Sector: Consumer Discretionary Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Consumer Services<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1,546.0x<br />

Country: Korea<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 0.0%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 4,276.7x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Constructed in 1998 on land formerly occupied by coal mines to revitalize the local economy and the<br />

Korean tourism business, Kangwon Land opened Korea’s only legal casino facility accessible to Koreans<br />

in 2003 and has since expanded to include a golf course in 2005, followed by ski resort and<br />

condominiums in 2006. It has now grown into Korea’s best resort complex, and is fully equipped with<br />

casino, tourist hotels and condominium and excellent sports facilities such as ski and golf course.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (KW m) 1,032,323 1,123,512 1,223,095 1,365,842 1,513,002<br />

Gross Debt (KW m) 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Interest Expense (KW m) (218) (428) (319) (347) (361)<br />

EBIT (KW m) 569,525 489,646 422,411 463,267 468,206<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 212.8% 263.5% 264.2% 281.5% 303.7%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) - - - - -<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 2,859.4x 1,297.5x 1,546.0x 1,557.0x 1,531.9x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 2,610.5x 1,145.2x 1,322.3x 1,333.2x 1,297.2x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (KW m) 1,313,788 1,265,686 1,300,485 1,401,333 1,432,955<br />

% Change (YoY) 8.9% (3.7%) 2.7% 7.8% 2.3%<br />

EBITDA (KW m) 623,816 554,761 493,882 541,020 552,931<br />

% of Sales 47.5% 43.8% 38.0% 38.6% 38.6%<br />

Net Income (KW m) 426,209 381,175 334,848 369,822 378,158<br />

% of Sales 32.4% 30.1% 25.7% 26.4% 26.4%<br />

Free Cash Flow (KW m) 190,987 230,005 242,726 257,856 274,171<br />

% of Sales 14.5% 18.2% 18.7% 18.4% 19.1%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 947,899 1,032,323 1,123,512 1,223,095 1,365,842<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 190,987 230,005 242,726 257,856 274,171<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 1,138,886 1,262,328 1,366,238 1,480,952 1,640,014<br />

Principal Repayments 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Interest Payments 218 428 319 347 361<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 218 428 319 347 361<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 5,220.3x 2,952.3x 4,276.7x 4,262.1x 4,543.7x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In KW m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 1,123,512 63,439.2%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 1,394,238 78,725.7%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 2,517,750 142,164.9%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 2,517,750 142,164.9%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 1,771 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

208 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

100.0% 100.0% 100.0%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity<br />

(KW m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 5,521,719 5,937,878 6,100,282<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 0 0 0<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

3500.0x<br />

3000.0x<br />

3000.0x<br />

2500.0x<br />

2500.0x<br />

2000.0x<br />

2000.0x<br />

1500.0x<br />

1500.0x<br />

1000.0x<br />

1000.0x<br />

500.0x<br />

500.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

6000.0x<br />

5220.3x<br />

5000.0x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

4000.0x<br />

3000.0x<br />

2000.0x<br />

1000.0x<br />

2952.3x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Share Price (KW)<br />

39,040<br />

34,040<br />

29,040<br />

24,040<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

4276.7x 4262.1x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

19,040<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Kangwon Land, Inc.<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (KW m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 1,313,788 1,265,686 1,300,485 1,401,333 1,432,955<br />

Operating Expenses (689,973) (710,925) (806,603) (860,313) (880,024)<br />

EBITDA 623,816 554,761 493,882 541,020 552,931<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (54,291) (65,115) (71,471) (77,752) (84,725)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 569,525 489,646 422,411 463,267 468,206<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 35,650 39,418 43,053 47,292 52,352<br />

Other Income/(Expense) (38,921) (21,626) (22,000) (22,000) (22,000)<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits (492) (1,622) (1,713) (668) 331<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 561,472 499,671 441,751 487,891 498,889<br />

Taxes on Profit (135,263) (118,495) (106,904) (118,070) (120,731)<br />

Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 426,209 381,175 334,848 369,822 378,158<br />

Balance Sheet (KW m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 1,125,451 1,200,373 1,296,863 1,382,296 1,452,545<br />

Long-term Investments 104,725 51,298 52,760 52,760 52,760<br />

Associates 70,138 68,512 66,800 66,132 66,462<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 1,212 1,964 1,964 1,964 1,964<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 1,549,390 1,574,260 1,662,538 1,744,118 1,809,724<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 39,060 40,279 38,047 45,120 41,897<br />

Total Current Assets 1,071,382 1,163,791 1,261,143 1,410,963 1,554,898<br />

Total Assets 2,620,772 2,738,051 2,923,681 3,155,081 3,364,622<br />

Shareholders' Equity 2,099,211 2,257,363 2,407,476 2,614,897 2,813,691<br />

Total Equity 2,099,211 2,257,363 2,407,476 2,614,897 2,813,691<br />

Long Term Debt 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 18,904 39,804 39,804 39,804 39,804<br />

Total Current Liabilities 502,657 440,885 476,401 500,380 511,128<br />

Total Liabilities 521,561 480,689 516,205 540,184 550,931<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 2,620,772 2,738,051 2,923,681 3,155,081 3,364,622<br />

Cash Flow Statement (KW m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 561,472 499,671 441,751 487,891 498,889<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 54,291 65,115 71,471 77,752 84,725<br />

Tax Paid (114,248) (115,705) (107,979) (113,529) (117,490)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (26,969) (51,793) 38,823 12,366 10,730<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 452,228 385,280 402,726 417,856 424,171<br />

Capital Expenditure (261,241) (155,276) (160,000) (160,000) (150,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (122,838) (31,853) 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (353,817) (155,217) (116,627) (112,361) (97,287)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net (20,047) (21,103) 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (192,684) (197,686) (184,734) (162,401) (179,363)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (212,984) (219,216) (185,053) (162,749) (179,724)<br />

Change in Cash (114,574) 10,848 101,045 142,747 147,159<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 47.5% 43.8% 38.0% 38.6% 38.6%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 43.3% 38.7% 32.5% 33.1% 32.7%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 32.4% 30.1% 25.7% 26.4% 26.4%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 21.4% 17.5% 14.4% 14.7% 13.9%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 24.2% 19.8% 16.5% 16.8% 16.0%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 54.1% 38.0% 29.7% 30.9% 29.7%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 125.5% 123.0% 121.4% 121.0% 120.1%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 2,859.4x 1,297.5x 1,546.0x 1,557.0x 1,531.9x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 2,610.5x 1,145.2x 1,322.3x 1,333.2x 1,297.2x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 8.4% 12.1% 32.4% 59.4% 87.0%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 213.1% 264.0% 264.7% 282.0% 304.2%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 212.8% 263.5% 264.2% 281.5% 303.7%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

209 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Keppel Corporation Limited (KEP SP)<br />

Sector: Industrials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Capital Goods<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 2.4x<br />

Country: Singapore<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 41.6%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 6.2x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Keppel Corporation Limited is a Singapore-based conglomerate with primary interests in offshore &<br />

marine, property and infrastructure. The group was incorporated on 3 August 1968 under the name of<br />

Keppel Shipyard (Pte) Ltd. The group now has a geographical presence in 30 countries. The group<br />

operates through Keppel Offshore & Marine, Keppel Integrated Engineering, Keppel Energy, Keppel<br />

Telecommunications & Transportation (Keppel T&T) and Keppel Land, among others.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (S$ m) 4,783 3,598 5,370 4,277 5,588<br />

Gross Debt (S$ m) 4,068 4,877 5,069 4,725 3,881<br />

Interest Expense (S$ m) (57) (98) (143) (132) (113)<br />

EBIT (S$ m) 1,556 1,897 2,442 2,304 2,339<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 43.8% 43.6% 41.6% 36.7% 28.3%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 99.4% 70.0% 80.5% 76.6% 70.3%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 1.7x 2.1x 1.9x 1.9x 1.7x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.4x 3.4x 2.4x 1.4x 1.1x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 27.2x 19.3x 17.1x 17.5x 20.7x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (S$ m) 9,140 10,082 13,736 13,745 16,046<br />

% Change (YoY) (25.4%) 10.3% 36.2% 0.1% 16.7%<br />

EBITDA (S$ m) 1,745 2,106 2,651 2,524 2,569<br />

% of Sales 19.1% 20.9% 19.3% 18.4% 16.0%<br />

Net Income (S$ m) 1,307 1,491 1,442 1,247 1,186<br />

% of Sales 14.3% 14.8% 10.5% 9.1% 7.4%<br />

Free Cash Flow (S$ m) (423) (1,118) 2,340 192 3,000<br />

% of Sales (4.6%) (11.1%) 17.0% 1.4% 18.7%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 3,392 4,783 3,598 5,370 4,277<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (423) (1,118) 2,340 192 3,000<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 2,969 3,665 5,938 5,562 7,277<br />

Principal Repayments 922 422 808 1,344 1,844<br />

Interest Payments 57 98 143 132 113<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 979 520 951 1,476 1,957<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 3.0x 7.0x 6.2x 3.8x 3.7x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In S$ m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 3,598 45.0%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 7,974 99.8%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 11,572 144.8%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 7,450 93.2%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 19,022 238.1%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 7,990 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

22.7% 20.5% 19.3%<br />

77.3% 79.5% 80.7%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(S$ m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 16,589 19,621 19,764<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 4,877 5,069 4,725<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

4.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

3.5x<br />

3.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

2.5x<br />

20.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

5.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

8.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EI420986 Corp At Maturity Senior Unsecured S$ 500.0 500.0 100.00 12-Oct-2010 12-Oct-2020 3.10% 2<br />

EJ011983 Corp At Maturity Senior Unsecured S$ 400.0 400.0 100.00 14-Feb-2012 14-Feb-2022 3.15% 2<br />

EJ121448 Corp Callable Senior Unsecured S$ 300.0 300.0 100.00 23-Apr-2012 23-Apr-2027 3.80% 2<br />

210 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (S$)<br />

7.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

7.0x<br />

6.2x<br />

3.8x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

13.91<br />

12.91<br />

11.91<br />

10.91<br />

9.91<br />

8.91<br />

7.91<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Keppel Corporation Limited


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (S$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 9,140 10,082 13,736 13,745 16,046<br />

Operating Expenses (7,395) (7,977) (11,084) (11,222) (13,476)<br />

EBITDA 1,745 2,106 2,651 2,524 2,569<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (189) (209) (209) (220) (230)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 1,556 1,897 2,442 2,304 2,339<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 47 16 (17) 2 23<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 8 25 17 21 25<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 278 240 220 218 215<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 2,550 3,313 2,662 2,544 2,602<br />

Taxes on Profit (560) (641) (453) (432) (442)<br />

Minority Interests (479) (832) (768) (865) (974)<br />

Other Post-tax Items (204) (349) 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 1,307 1,491 1,442 1,247 1,186<br />

Balance Sheet (S$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 1,987 2,121 2,156 2,186 2,211<br />

Long-term Investments 300 311 373 447 537<br />

Associates 3,587 4,232 4,183 4,134 4,086<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 108 99 97 96 94<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 9,474 12,234 12,834 13,491 14,213<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 6,204 8,651 9,126 8,384 9,826<br />

Total Current Assets 10,987 12,249 14,497 12,661 15,414<br />

Total Assets 20,461 24,483 27,331 26,152 29,628<br />

Shareholders' Equity 6,415 7,390 7,907 8,063 8,270<br />

Total Equity 9,282 11,191 12,187 12,883 13,699<br />

Long Term Debt 3,676 4,069 4,225 3,881 3,037<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 4,086 4,675 4,832 4,488 3,644<br />

Total Current Liabilities 7,093 8,616 10,312 8,781 12,285<br />

Total Liabilities 11,179 13,292 15,144 13,269 15,929<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 20,461 24,483 27,331 26,152 29,628<br />

Cash Flow Statement (S$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 2,550 3,313 2,662 2,544 2,602<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 189 209 209 220 230<br />

Tax Paid (293) (343) (224) (274) (314)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (1,101) (2,050) 800 (1,135) 1,711<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 450 (242) 3,204 1,116 3,991<br />

Capital Expenditure (873) (876) (863) (924) (991)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (15) (558) (32) (23) (13)<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (643) (1,258) (496) (549) (607)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 2,300 809 192 (344) (844)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net (44) 77 (19) (21) (24)<br />

Dividends Paid (757) (882) (1,233) (1,437) (1,367)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 1,504 275 (1,022) (1,759) (2,187)<br />

Change in Cash 1,311 (1,225) 1,686 (1,193) 1,196<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 19.1% 20.9% 19.3% 18.4% 16.0%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 17.0% 18.8% 17.8% 16.8% 14.6%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 14.3% 14.8% 10.5% 9.1% 7.4%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 21.1% 21.6% 18.9% 15.6% 14.5%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 8.8% 9.0% 9.9% 9.1% 8.9%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 25.0% 22.5% 24.6% 22.1% 22.4%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 43.8% 43.6% 41.6% 36.7% 28.3%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - 16.6% 3.0% 9.4% -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 304.6% 325.5% 338.7% 334.9% 341.5%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.4x 3.4x 2.4x 1.4x 1.1x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 27.2x 19.3x 17.1x 17.5x 20.7x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 59.9% 35.1% 45.6% 40.0% 38.3%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 154.9% 142.2% 140.6% 144.2% 125.5%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 99.4% 70.0% 80.5% 76.6% 70.3%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

211 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Kia Motors Corporation (000270 KS)<br />

Sector: Consumer Discretionary Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Automobiles & Components<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.9x<br />

Country: Korea<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 26.9%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 2.8x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Kia Motors Corporation, one of the leading motor vehicle manufacturers in Korea, was established in<br />

December 1944 under the laws of the Republic of Korea to manufacture and sell a range of passenger<br />

cars, recreational vehicles and other commercial vehicles in the domestic and international markets.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (KW m) 2,914,838 3,934,615 4,822,602 6,086,821 8,045,838<br />

Gross Debt (KW m) 6,340,657 5,607,301 4,700,313 3,706,444 2,787,031<br />

Interest Expense (KW m) (296,174) (185,779) (194,750) (158,634) (122,282)<br />

EBIT (KW m) 2,369,852 3,499,088 4,525,091 4,810,282 5,501,993<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 61.9% 41.5% 26.9% 16.8% 10.2%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 53.2% 59.3% 72.8% 84.8% 100.4%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 2.5x 1.3x 1.0x 0.8x 0.5x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.7x 1.4x 1.9x 3.8x 4.7x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 8.0x 18.8x 23.2x 30.3x 45.0x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (KW m) 35,826,955 43,190,942 48,209,572 52,449,661 57,084,718<br />

% Change (YoY) 22.5% 20.6% 11.6% 8.8% 8.8%<br />

EBITDA (KW m) 3,298,259 4,489,888 5,249,677 5,601,879 6,327,470<br />

% of Sales 9.2% 10.4% 10.9% 10.7% 11.1%<br />

Net Income (KW m) 2,682,119 3,415,577 4,090,306 4,709,249 5,549,719<br />

% of Sales 7.5% 7.9% 8.5% 9.0% 9.7%<br />

Free Cash Flow (KW m) 4,145,192 2,612,585 1,991,844 2,418,384 2,959,808<br />

% of Sales 11.6% 6.0% 4.1% 4.6% 5.2%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 2,791,688 2,914,838 3,934,615 4,822,602 6,086,821<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 4,145,192 2,612,585 1,991,844 2,418,384 2,959,808<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 6,936,880 5,527,423 5,926,459 7,240,987 9,046,629<br />

Principal Repayments 3,502,297 2,263,368 1,906,989 993,869 919,412<br />

Interest Payments 296,174 185,779 194,750 158,634 122,282<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 3,798,471 2,449,147 2,101,739 1,152,503 1,041,694<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.8x 2.3x 2.8x 6.3x 8.7x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In KW m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 3,934,615 64.2%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 14,172,378 231.3%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 18,106,993 295.6%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 18,106,993 295.6%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 6,125,984 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

212 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

17.2% 17.1% 14.4%<br />

82.8% 82.9% 85.6%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(KW m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 26,920,943 22,804,097 22,037,234<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 5,607,301 4,700,313 3,706,444<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

4.5x<br />

35.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

3.5x<br />

3.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

2.5x<br />

20.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

5.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

7.0x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

6.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

1.8x<br />

2.3x<br />

2.8x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Share Price (KW)<br />

96,495<br />

86,495<br />

76,495<br />

66,495<br />

56,495<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

6.3x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

46,495<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Kia Motors Corporation<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (KW m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 35,826,955 43,190,942 48,209,572 52,449,661 57,084,718<br />

Operating Expenses (32,528,696) (38,701,054) (42,959,894 (46,847,78 (50,757,248)<br />

EBITDA 3,298,259 4,489,888 5,249,677 5,601,879 6,327,470<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (928,407) (990,800) (724,586) (791,597) (825,477)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 2,369,852 3,499,088 4,525,091 4,810,282 5,501,993<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (212,346) (78,774) (98,565) (24,785) 67,974<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 216,139 (516) (377,621) (363,899) (393,253)<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 981,661 1,160,124 1,634,648 1,956,974 2,340,257<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 3,323,047 4,721,650 5,683,554 6,378,573 7,516,971<br />

Taxes on Profit (624,717) (1,202,414) (1,475,420) (1,543,615) (1,819,107)<br />

Minority Interests (16,211) (103,659) (117,828) (125,709) (148,144)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 2,682,119 3,415,577 4,090,306 4,709,249 5,549,719<br />

Balance Sheet (KW m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 8,154,826 8,485,268 9,010,262 9,524,042 9,933,040<br />

Long-term Investments 479,395 1,250,706 1,250,706 1,250,706 1,250,706<br />

Associates 5,558,788 6,809,391 8,305,094 10,095,726 12,237,061<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 1,361,579 1,517,277 1,867,277 2,217,277 2,567,277<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 16,511,473 19,179,992 21,651,109 24,350,144 27,216,002<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 6,848,833 7,140,572 7,401,494 7,561,963 8,076,897<br />

Total Current Assets 9,763,671 11,075,187 12,224,096 13,648,784 16,122,735<br />

Total Assets 26,275,144 30,255,179 33,875,205 37,998,928 43,338,738<br />

Shareholders' Equity 9,983,238 13,509,721 17,357,860 21,760,336 26,956,862<br />

Total Equity 10,248,117 13,509,710 17,475,677 22,003,862 27,348,532<br />

Long Term Debt 2,755,447 2,503,230 2,807,188 2,111,146 1,415,104<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 4,399,488 5,323,545 5,643,036 5,122,113 4,599,127<br />

Total Current Liabilities 11,627,539 11,421,924 10,756,493 10,872,953 11,391,079<br />

Total Liabilities 16,027,027 16,745,469 16,399,529 15,995,067 15,990,206<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 26,275,144 30,255,179 33,875,205 37,998,928 43,338,738<br />

Cash Flow Statement (KW m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 3,323,047 4,721,650 5,683,554 6,378,573 7,516,971<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 928,407 990,800 724,586 791,597 825,477<br />

Tax Paid (114,484) (490,897) (1,449,471) (1,529,493) (1,775,665)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 947,319 (922,804) (690,014) (634,177) (785,519)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 5,472,021 4,506,571 3,691,844 4,118,384 4,509,808<br />

Capital Expenditure (1,326,829) (1,893,986) (1,700,000) (1,700,000) (1,550,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (936,658) (736,640) 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (2,199,363) (2,206,151) (1,459,951) (1,394,889) (1,155,904)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (3,303,432) (893,874) (906,989) (993,869) (919,412)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net (97,345) (136,714) 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (96,992) (198,735) (242,167) (306,773) (353,194)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (3,639,472) (1,626,735) (1,343,906) (1,459,276) (1,394,888)<br />

Change in Cash (366,814) 673,685 887,987 1,264,219 1,959,017<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 9.2% 10.4% 10.9% 10.7% 11.1%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 6.6% 8.1% 9.4% 9.2% 9.6%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 7.5% 7.9% 8.5% 9.0% 9.7%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 32.1% 29.1% 26.5% 24.1% 22.8%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 9.4% 12.8% 14.4% 13.8% 14.0%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 18.0% 27.1% 32.6% 33.3% 36.1%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 61.9% 41.5% 26.9% 16.8% 10.2%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 46.1% 24.5% 8.6% - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 312.2% 240.6% 207.8% 183.7% 167.0%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.7x 1.4x 1.9x 3.8x 4.7x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 8.0x 18.8x 23.2x 30.3x 45.0x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 13.9% 20.2% 29.7% 41.0% 56.3%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 84.0% 97.0% 113.6% 125.5% 141.5%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 53.2% 59.3% 72.8% 84.8% 100.4%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

213 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Korea Electric Power Corporation (015760 KS)<br />

Sector: Utilities Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Utilities<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.8x<br />

Country: Korea<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 101.7%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) (0.5x)<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO) is an integrated utility company engaged in the generation,<br />

transmission and distribution of electricity in Korea. The company, through its six wholly owned<br />

subsidiaries accounted for approximately 89% of the total electricity generation capacity in Korea<br />

(excluding plants generating electricity primarily for private or emergency use) as on 31st Dec., 2011.<br />

The Company owns five non-nuclear generation subsidiaries: Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd<br />

(KOSEP) Korea Midland Power Co Ltd (KOMIPO) Korea Western Power Co Ltd (KOWEPO) Korea<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (KW b) 2,709 2,135 2,683 3,049 3,991<br />

Gross Debt (KW b) 39,835 46,429 52,682 59,252 64,479<br />

Interest Expense (KW b) 0 0 0 0 0<br />

EBIT (KW b) 2,142 (851) 119 5,154 6,548<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 69.5% 86.3% 101.7% 111.0% 116.6%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 68.7% 57.9% 55.7% 56.0% 60.1%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 4.2x 7.2x 6.8x 4.5x 4.4x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.0x 0.7x 0.8x 0.8x 0.8x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 0.9x - 0.0x 1.7x 1.9x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (KW b) 39,507 43,532 50,620 56,869 59,820<br />

% Change (YoY) 16.2% 10.2% 16.3% 12.3% 5.2%<br />

EBITDA (KW b) 8,838 6,027 7,283 12,469 14,155<br />

% of Sales 22.4% 13.8% 14.4% 21.9% 23.7%<br />

Net Income (KW b) (120) (3,370) (2,041) 1,522 2,341<br />

% of Sales (0.3%) (7.7%) (4.0%) 2.7% 3.9%<br />

Free Cash Flow (KW b) (3,444) (6,466) (6,227) (6,744) (4,403)<br />

% of Sales (8.7%) (14.9%) (12.3%) (11.9%) (7.4%)<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 1,856 2,709 2,135 2,683 3,049<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (3,444) (6,466) (6,227) (6,744) (4,403)<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) (1,588) (3,757) (4,092) (4,061) (1,354)<br />

Principal Repayments 5,787 5,880 5,852 8,034 9,377<br />

Interest Payments 2,272 2,196 2,734 2,972 3,363<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 8,059 8,077 8,586 11,006 12,740<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) (0.2x) (0.5x) (0.5x) (0.4x) (0.1x)<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In KW b)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 2,135 3.5%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation (20,231) (33.6%)<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation (18,096) (30.1%)<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments (18,096) (30.1%)<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 60,199 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

74.5% 73.5% 75.1%<br />

25.5% 26.5% 24.9%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(KW b) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 15,919 18,971 19,688<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 46,429 52,682 59,252<br />

(x) Cover Interest<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

1.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.8x<br />

0.6x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.0x<br />

nm<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

2013F<br />

nm<br />

0.0x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A<br />

(0.1x)<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EH903381 Corp At Maturity Senior Unsecured US$ 500.0 500.0 98.87 21-Jul-2009 21-Jul-2014 5.50% 2<br />

EH714154 Corp Putable Senior Unsecured JPY 20,000.0 20,000.0 100.00 27-Nov-2008 27-Nov-2018 4.19% 2<br />

214 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (KW)<br />

(0.2x)<br />

(0.3x)<br />

(0.4x)<br />

(0.5x)<br />

(0.6x)<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

33,233<br />

28,233<br />

23,233<br />

(0.2x)<br />

(0.5x) (0.5x)<br />

(0.4x)<br />

18,233<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Korea Electric Power Corporation


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (KW b) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 39,507 43,532 50,620 56,869 59,820<br />

Operating Expenses (31,205) (38,104) (44,085) (45,223) (46,570)<br />

EBITDA 8,838 6,027 7,283 12,469 14,155<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (6,697) (6,877) (7,165) (7,315) (7,607)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 2,142 (851) 119 5,154 6,548<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (1,925) (1,832) (2,432) (2,642) (2,993)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 80 79 326 76 76<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 77 123 129 132 134<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 370 (2,473) (1,851) 2,729 3,774<br />

Taxes on Profit (439) (820) (93) (1,100) (1,330)<br />

Minority Interests (51) (77) (97) (106) (103)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) (120) (3,370) (2,041) 1,522 2,341<br />

Balance Sheet (KW b)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 88,153 92,473 95,146 99,464 104,046<br />

Long-term Investments 2,096 1,753 1,753 1,753 1,753<br />

Associates 3,766 4,485 4,582 4,681 4,782<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 923 849 764 687 618<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 116,361 122,342 125,806 133,328 139,494<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 10,448 11,991 12,283 12,944 13,263<br />

Total Current Assets 13,156 14,126 14,965 15,993 17,254<br />

Total Assets 129,518 136,468 140,771 149,321 156,749<br />

Shareholders' Equity 56,818 53,270 51,229 52,752 54,636<br />

Total Equity 57,277 53,804 51,802 53,367 55,292<br />

Long Term Debt 33,052 39,404 43,669 49,092 54,220<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 58,169 64,923 69,188 74,611 79,739<br />

Total Current Liabilities 14,072 17,741 19,781 21,343 21,717<br />

Total Liabilities 72,241 82,664 88,970 95,954 101,456<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 129,518 136,468 140,771 149,321 156,749<br />

Cash Flow Statement (KW b)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 370 (2,473) (1,851) 2,729 3,774<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 6,697 6,877 7,165 7,315 7,607<br />

Tax Paid (151) (314) (229) (661) (1,283)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (782) (984) (45) (661) (74)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 6,740 4,145 4,865 8,577 9,884<br />

Capital Expenditure (10,184) (10,610) (11,092) (15,321) (14,287)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (1,401) (522) 581 604 636<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (11,994) (11,196) (10,512) (14,717) (13,651)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 5,519 6,334 6,252 6,570 5,227<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 11 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (36) (45) (58) (64) (518)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 5,870 6,341 6,194 6,507 4,709<br />

Change in Cash 616 (710) 547 366 942<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 22.4% 13.8% 14.4% 21.9% 23.7%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 5.4% (2.0%) 0.2% 9.1% 10.9%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) (0.3%) (7.7%) (4.0%) 2.7% 3.9%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) (0.2%) (6.1%) (3.9%) 2.9% 4.4%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 2.0% (0.4%) 0.3% 3.8% 4.5%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) (0.4%) (0.7%) 0.1% 2.5% 3.2%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 69.5% 86.3% 101.7% 111.0% 116.6%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 65.9% 83.7% 98.0% 106.7% 110.7%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 227.6% 241.6% 265.3% 279.0% 285.0%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.0x 0.7x 0.8x 0.8x 0.8x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 0.9x - 0.0x 1.7x 1.9x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 14.9% 7.8% 9.8% 10.8% 14.9%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 93.5% 79.6% 75.7% 74.9% 79.5%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 68.7% 57.9% 55.7% 56.0% 60.1%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

215 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Kumba Iron Ore Limited (KIO SJ)<br />

Sector: Materials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Materials<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 26.1x<br />

Country: South Africa<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 11.7%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 24.1x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Kumba Iron Ore Limited (Kumba, the Company), a member of the Anglo American Plc Group, is the<br />

largest producer of iron ore in Africa and the fourth largest in the world. It was formed after the spin-off of<br />

the coal and heavy mineral operations of Kumba Resources Limited in 2006. The company exports<br />

majority of its iron-ore to China, and only a small portion of its production is sold to domestic clients or<br />

exported to other regions like Japan, Korea, China, Europe and the Middle East. The company operates<br />

two mines, namely Sishen mine and Thabazimbi mine and is currently developing a third mine, Kolomela<br />

mine.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (ZAR m) 4,855 4,742 5,903 7,274 11,950<br />

Gross Debt (ZAR m) 3,185 3,191 3,054 2,817 2,280<br />

Interest Expense (ZAR m) (178) (149) (270) (97) (79)<br />

EBIT (ZAR m) 25,131 31,966 28,941 32,390 32,650<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 17.3% 15.5% 11.7% 8.7% 5.9%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 236.6% 104.2% 141.2% 182.0% 212.9%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.1x 0.1x 0.1x 0.1x 0.1x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 3.4x 221.2x 26.1x 30.1x 27.5x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 141.2x 214.5x 107.0x 334.1x 415.1x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (ZAR m) 38,704 48,553 53,000 58,925 61,378<br />

% Change (YoY) 65.3% 25.4% 9.2% 11.2% 4.2%<br />

EBITDA (ZAR m) 25,896 32,964 30,160 33,704 34,074<br />

% of Sales 66.9% 67.9% 56.9% 57.2% 55.5%<br />

Net Income (ZAR m) 14,323 17,042 15,903 17,927 18,128<br />

% of Sales 37.0% 35.1% 30.0% 30.4% 29.5%<br />

Free Cash Flow (ZAR m) 13,518 19,651 17,113 19,281 23,286<br />

% of Sales 34.9% 40.5% 32.3% 32.7% 37.9%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 891 4,855 4,742 5,903 7,274<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 13,518 19,651 17,113 19,281 23,286<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 14,409 24,506 21,855 25,184 30,560<br />

Principal Repayments 5,500 0 637 737 837<br />

Interest Payments 178 149 270 97 79<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 5,678 149 907 834 916<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 2.5x 164.5x 24.1x 30.2x 33.4x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In ZAR m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 4,742 103.9%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 107,219 2,349.9%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 111,961 2,453.8%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 111,961 2,453.8%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 4,563 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

216 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

1.9%<br />

98.1%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

1.6%<br />

98.4%<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(ZAR m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 161,026 183,209 190,976<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 3,191 3,054 2,817<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

180.0x<br />

160.0x<br />

140.0x<br />

120.0x<br />

100.0x<br />

80.0x<br />

60.0x<br />

164.5x<br />

40.0x<br />

24.1x<br />

30.2x<br />

20.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2.5x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

1.5%<br />

98.5%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

250.0x<br />

400.0x<br />

350.0x<br />

200.0x<br />

300.0x<br />

150.0x<br />

250.0x<br />

200.0x<br />

100.0x<br />

150.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

100.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (ZAr)<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

69,326<br />

64,326<br />

59,326<br />

54,326<br />

49,326<br />

44,326<br />

39,326<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Kumba Iron Ore Limited<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (ZAR m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 38,704 48,553 53,000 58,925 61,378<br />

Operating Expenses (12,808) (15,589) (22,840) (25,221) (27,303)<br />

EBITDA 25,896 32,964 30,160 33,704 34,074<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (765) (998) (1,219) (1,314) (1,425)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 25,131 31,966 28,941 32,390 32,650<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (29) 92 (31) 200 306<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 25,102 32,058 28,910 32,589 32,956<br />

Taxes on Profit (6,813) (9,760) (8,095) (9,125) (9,228)<br />

Minority Interests (3,966) (5,256) (4,912) (5,538) (5,600)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 14,323 17,042 15,903 17,927 18,128<br />

Balance Sheet (ZAR m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 8,886 17,039 17,727 18,589 19,657<br />

Long-term Investments 372 568 649 740 838<br />

Associates 29 33 37 41 45<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 6 6 6 6 6<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 16,798 22,238 26,753 29,354 31,948<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 6,222 7,433 7,750 9,072 8,530<br />

Total Current Assets 11,077 12,175 13,653 16,346 20,481<br />

Total Assets 27,875 34,413 40,406 45,700 52,429<br />

Shareholders' Equity 14,338 15,833 20,978 26,779 32,644<br />

Total Equity 18,376 20,592 26,008 32,274 38,414<br />

Long Term Debt 3,185 0 2,217 1,920 1,323<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 6,129 5,843 7,530 7,073 6,424<br />

Total Current Liabilities 3,370 7,978 6,868 6,354 7,591<br />

Total Liabilities 9,499 13,821 14,398 13,427 14,015<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 27,875 34,413 40,406 45,700 52,429<br />

Cash Flow Statement (ZAR m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 25,102 32,058 28,910 32,589 32,956<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 765 998 1,219 1,314 1,425<br />

Tax Paid (7,031) (7,035) (8,095) (9,125) (9,228)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (760) 200 922 (1,889) 1,721<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 18,241 25,500 22,804 23,142 27,245<br />

Capital Expenditure (4,723) (5,849) (5,692) (3,862) (3,959)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 1 2 44 44 44<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (4,733) (5,851) (5,732) (3,913) (4,017)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (729) 0 (137) (237) (537)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net (117) (262) 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (8,590) (17,912) (15,774) (17,621) (18,015)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (9,583) (19,868) (15,911) (17,858) (18,552)<br />

Change in Cash 3,925 (219) 1,161 1,371 4,676<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 66.9% 67.9% 56.9% 57.2% 55.5%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 64.9% 65.8% 54.6% 55.0% 53.2%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 37.0% 35.1% 30.0% 30.4% 29.5%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 132.4% 113.0% 86.4% 75.1% 61.0%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 110.7% 103.4% 78.0% 75.9% 67.3%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 108.7% 102.2% 80.0% 77.8% 72.2%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 17.3% 15.5% 11.7% 8.7% 5.9%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 211.1% 206.4% 203.2% 180.3% 165.1%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 3.4x 221.2x 26.1x 30.1x 27.5x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 141.2x 214.5x 107.0x 334.1x 415.1x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 144.1% 59.4% 86.0% 114.5% 157.4%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 328.7% 152.6% 198.8% 257.3% 269.8%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 236.6% 104.2% 141.2% 182.0% 212.9%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

217 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Larsen & Toubro Ltd. (LT IN)<br />

Sector: Industrials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Capital Goods<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.6x<br />

Country: India<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 150.1%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.7x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Larsen & Toubro (L&T) is one of the largest engineering and construction companies in India. The<br />

company operates in six segments: Engineering and Construction (E&C), Electrical & Electronics (E&E),<br />

Machinery & Industrial Products (M&IP), Financial Services, Infrastructure Development and Others.<br />

L&T undertakes design, engineering and construction projects across various industries such as<br />

construction of roads, railways, bridges, seaports and airports (transportation); refineries, petrochemical<br />

plants, steel and offshore oil/gas production platforms and thermal power plants. The company also<br />

operates through various segment specific subsidiaries, prominent among these being L&T Infotech,<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Mar) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Rs m) 113,571 106,032 108,887 90,508 88,777<br />

Gross Debt (Rs m) 327,983 471,501 526,976 574,615 601,755<br />

Interest Expense (Rs m) (12,649) (21,424) (27,458) (30,294) (32,350)<br />

EBIT (Rs m) 63,586 71,897 81,780 89,791 95,552<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 125.8% 151.4% 150.1% 146.4% 138.8%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 128.5% 129.8% 121.5% 114.9% 111.3%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 3.6x 4.6x 5.0x 4.9x 4.7x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.9x 0.6x 0.6x 1.0x 1.0x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 5.0x 3.4x 3.0x 3.0x 3.0x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (Rs m) 520,438 643,131 751,916 850,726 951,828<br />

% Change (YoY) 18.4% 23.6% 16.9% 13.1% 11.9%<br />

EBITDA (Rs m) 76,774 87,700 100,094 113,254 126,468<br />

% of Sales 14.8% 13.6% 13.3% 13.3% 13.3%<br />

Net Income (Rs m) 44,562 46,937 52,504 54,042 54,368<br />

% of Sales 8.6% 7.3% 7.0% 6.4% 5.7%<br />

Free Cash Flow (Rs m) (89,248) (136,431) (24,720) (28,779) 10,786<br />

% of Sales (17.1%) (21.2%) (3.3%) (3.4%) 1.1%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 118,814 113,571 106,032 108,887 90,508<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (89,248) (136,431) (24,720) (28,779) 10,786<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 29,565 (22,860) 81,312 80,108 101,294<br />

Principal Repayments 50,611 83,438 94,524 57,361 67,861<br />

Interest Payments 12,649 21,424 27,458 30,294 32,350<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 63,260 104,862 121,983 87,654 100,211<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.5x (0.2x) 0.7x 0.9x 1.0x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In Rs m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 106,032 19.5%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 9,428 1.7%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 115,459 21.3%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 115,459 21.3%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 542,840 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

37.0% 34.3% 36.3%<br />

63.0% 65.7% 63.7%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(Rs m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 801,630 1,010,183 1,010,183<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 471,501 526,976 574,615<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

1.2x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

1.0x<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EH693040 Corp Callable Secured Rs 5,000.0 5,000.0 100.00 05-Dec-2008 05-Dec-2018 11.45% 1<br />

EH947945 Corp At Maturity Senior Secured Rs 4,706.9 4,706.9 100.00 17-Sep-2009 17-Sep-2019 10.24% 2<br />

EI961419 Corp Callable Secured Rs 3,775.6 3,775.6 100.00 10-Jan-2012 09-Jan-2022 9.00% N.A.<br />

218 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (Rs)<br />

1.0x<br />

0.8x<br />

0.6x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.2x<br />

6.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

0.8x<br />

0.6x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.0x<br />

(0.2x)<br />

(0.4x)<br />

0.5x<br />

(0.2x)<br />

0.7x<br />

0.9x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

2045<br />

1845<br />

1645<br />

1445<br />

1245<br />

1045<br />

845<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Larsen & Toubro Ltd.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (Rs m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 520,438 643,131 751,916 850,726 951,828<br />

Operating Expenses (443,664) (555,432) (651,822) (737,471) (825,360)<br />

EBITDA 76,774 87,700 100,094 113,254 126,468<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (13,189) (15,803) (18,313) (23,463) (30,916)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 63,586 71,897 81,780 89,791 95,552<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (4,845) (4,225) (9,401) (11,583) (16,950)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 2,178 (461) 1,577 1,465 1,465<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 68,007 69,735 77,462 79,673 80,066<br />

Taxes on Profit (23,456) (22,826) (25,129) (25,846) (25,974)<br />

Minority Interests (786) (348) (370) (381) (383)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 796 375 540 596 658<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 44,562 46,937 52,504 54,042 54,368<br />

Balance Sheet (Rs m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 108,996 141,137 152,544 202,360 226,219<br />

Long-term Investments 10,504 12,385 12,385 12,385 12,385<br />

Associates 4,537 4,699 5,185 5,722 6,314<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 96,941 123,210 164,023 195,692 215,631<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 421,534 548,593 638,488 714,203 761,129<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 412,237 535,319 588,327 647,206 712,892<br />

Total Current Assets 525,807 641,350 697,214 737,715 801,669<br />

Total Assets 947,341 1,189,943 1,335,702 1,451,918 1,562,798<br />

Shareholders' Equity 250,506 293,868 333,246 374,318 414,876<br />

Total Equity 260,766 311,402 351,150 392,603 433,545<br />

Long Term Debt 248,411 361,556 393,918 405,280 406,142<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 301,168 416,918 449,280 460,642 461,504<br />

Total Current Liabilities 385,408 461,623 535,272 598,673 667,750<br />

Total Liabilities 686,576 878,541 984,552 1,059,315 1,129,253<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 947,341 1,189,943 1,335,702 1,451,918 1,562,798<br />

Cash Flow Statement (Rs m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 68,007 69,735 77,462 79,673 80,066<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 13,189 15,803 18,313 23,463 30,916<br />

Tax Paid (26,690) (28,516) (21,579) (25,206) (25,858)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (69,839) (127,948) (36,593) (66,827) (46,824)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations (16,156) (63,407) 45,280 21,221 53,786<br />

Capital Expenditure (73,092) (73,024) (70,000) (50,000) (43,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 10,471 8,945 4,610 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (59,287) (58,642) (58,698) (43,819) (37,336)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 98,145 136,524 55,476 47,639 27,139<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 3,473 1,926 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (7,528) (8,828) (10,105) (11,294) (11,160)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 78,682 120,816 16,274 4,220 (18,181)<br />

Change in Cash 3,239 (1,233) 2,855 (18,379) (1,731)<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 14.8% 13.6% 13.3% 13.3% 13.3%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 12.2% 11.2% 10.9% 10.6% 10.0%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 8.6% 7.3% 7.0% 6.4% 5.7%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 19.4% 17.2% 16.7% 15.3% 13.8%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 8.1% 7.2% 6.9% 6.8% 6.6%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 9.8% 7.9% 7.3% 7.0% 6.8%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 125.8% 151.4% 150.1% 146.4% 138.8%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 111.8% 140.6% 139.6% 141.7% 135.0%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 358.8% 392.6% 402.7% 394.0% 382.0%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.9x 0.6x 0.6x 1.0x 1.0x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 5.0x 3.4x 3.0x 3.0x 3.0x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 9.5% 7.3% 6.8% 3.1% 2.5%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 136.4% 138.9% 130.3% 123.2% 120.1%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 128.5% 129.8% 121.5% 114.9% 111.3%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

219 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Lenovo Group Ltd. (992 HK)<br />

Sector: Information Technology Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Technology Hardware & Equipment Debt Service Cover (x) 34.8x<br />

Country: Hong Kong<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 13.4%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 194.9x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Lenovo Group Limited was incorporated in Hong Kong in 1988. The Company through its subsidiaries<br />

manufactures and sells personal computers, handheld devices and digital home products. The Company<br />

is the world’s second largest PC vendor with a worldwide market share of approximately 14.7% as on Q2<br />

2012, according to IDC. To expand internationally beyond China, the Company acquired IBM’s Personal<br />

Computing Division in 2005. On March 31, 2008, the Company sold its stake in Greater China mobile<br />

handset operations. However, the Company re-acquired the divested Mobile division in January 2010 for<br />

a net consideration of US$ 150 m.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Mar) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (US$ m) 2,997 4,171 4,815 5,165 5,478<br />

Gross Debt (US$ m) 272 63 347 275 207<br />

Interest Expense (US$ m) (48) (38) (50) (55) (51)<br />

EBIT (US$ m) 302 572 770 884 1,043<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 14.8% 2.6% 13.4% 9.1% 5.8%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 88.8% 89.8% 92.2% 95.1% 96.0%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.9x 0.2x 0.2x 0.3x 0.2x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.5x 2.8x 34.8x 10.8x 13.2x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 18.5x 45.0x 79.9x 60.4x 92.1x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (US$ m) 21,594 29,574 34,698 38,866 43,354<br />

% Change (YoY) 30.0% 37.0% 17.3% 12.0% 11.5%<br />

EBITDA (US$ m) 478 747 1,037 1,154 1,323<br />

% of Sales 2.2% 2.5% 3.0% 3.0% 3.1%<br />

Net Income (US$ m) 273 473 590 685 808<br />

% of Sales 1.3% 1.6% 1.7% 1.8% 1.9%<br />

Free Cash Flow (US$ m) 818 1,611 775 600 596<br />

% of Sales 3.8% 5.4% 2.2% 1.5% 1.4%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 2,439 2,997 4,171 4,815 5,165<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 818 1,611 775 600 596<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 3,256 4,607 4,947 5,416 5,762<br />

Principal Repayments 230 209 16 72 69<br />

Interest Payments 16 13 10 15 11<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 246 221 25 86 80<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 13.2x 20.8x 194.9x 62.7x 71.9x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In US$ m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 4,171 1,238.5%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 3,393 1,007.3%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 7,564 2,245.8%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 2,439 724.2%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 10,003 2,970.0%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 337 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

220 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

0.7%<br />

99.3%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(US$ m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 9,303 9,412 9,412<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 63 347 275<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

40.0x<br />

90.0x<br />

35.0x<br />

80.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

70.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

60.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

250.0x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

3.6%<br />

96.4%<br />

100.0x<br />

62.7x<br />

50.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

13.2x<br />

20.8x<br />

2011A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

200.0x<br />

150.0x<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

2.8%<br />

97.2%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

9.40<br />

8.40<br />

7.40<br />

6.40<br />

5.40<br />

194.9x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

4.40<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Lenovo Group Ltd.<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (US$ m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 21,594 29,574 34,698 38,866 43,354<br />

Operating Expenses (21,116) (28,827) (33,661) (37,712) (42,031)<br />

EBITDA 478 747 1,037 1,154 1,323<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (176) (175) (267) (270) (280)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 302 572 770 884 1,043<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 9 30 44 45 53<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 46 (21) (49) (40) (40)<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 (1) (1) 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 358 582 765 889 1,056<br />

Taxes on Profit (85) (107) (167) (196) (237)<br />

Minority Interests 0 (2) (8) (9) (10)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 273 473 590 685 808<br />

Balance Sheet (US$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 209 392 391 395 400<br />

Long-term Investments 79 72 82 82 82<br />

Associates 1 3 3 3 3<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 2,134 3,091 3,099 3,124 3,149<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 2,769 4,040 4,105 4,157 4,199<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 4,940 7,649 8,972 9,840 11,618<br />

Total Current Assets 7,936 11,820 13,787 15,005 17,097<br />

Total Assets 10,706 15,861 17,892 19,162 21,296<br />

Shareholders' Equity 1,835 2,361 2,492 2,938 3,468<br />

Total Equity 1,835 2,448 2,586 3,042 3,582<br />

Long Term Debt 0 0 240 180 120<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 838 1,603 1,930 1,957 1,993<br />

Total Current Liabilities 8,033 11,810 13,375 14,164 15,721<br />

Total Liabilities 8,871 13,413 15,305 16,121 17,714<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 10,706 15,861 17,892 19,162 21,296<br />

Cash Flow Statement (US$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 358 582 765 889 1,056<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 176 175 267 270 280<br />

Tax Paid (76) (148) (167) (196) (237)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 598 1,389 286 19 (116)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 965 1,940 1,097 922 918<br />

Capital Expenditure (148) (329) (322) (322) (322)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 30 (179) (10) 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Investing 41 (880) (332) (322) (322)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (223) (212) 284 (72) (69)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net (61) 11 (264) 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (88) (115) (196) (239) (278)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (373) (316) (175) (310) (347)<br />

Change in Cash 633 745 590 290 249<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 2.2% 2.5% 3.0% 3.0% 3.1%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 1.4% 1.9% 2.2% 2.3% 2.4%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 1.3% 1.6% 1.7% 1.8% 1.9%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 15.9% 22.5% 24.3% 25.2% 25.2%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 3.3% 4.6% 4.9% 5.1% 5.5%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 312.9% - - - -<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 14.8% 2.6% 13.4% 9.1% 5.8%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 571.5% 633.1% 695.5% 682.4% 631.5%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.5x 2.8x 34.8x 10.8x 13.2x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 18.5x 45.0x 79.9x 60.4x 92.1x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 36.8% 31.8% 32.9% 33.5% 32.2%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 98.8% 100.1% 103.1% 105.9% 108.8%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 88.8% 89.8% 92.2% 95.1% 96.0%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

221 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


LG Display Co., Ltd. (034220 KS)<br />

Sector: Information Technology Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Technology Hardware & Equipment Debt Service Cover (x) 1.6x<br />

Country: Korea<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 48.6%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.1x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

LG Display Co., Ltd was incorporated in 1985. The Company is principally engaged in the manufacture<br />

of Thin Film Transistor Liquid Crystal Panels (TFT – LCD) for its end brand customers. The Company<br />

manufactures a range of panels which find their applications in Televisions, Desktop Monitors, Notebook<br />

Computers, and others which include hand held application products.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (KW m) 3,169,379 2,336,274 2,678,101 4,316,347 4,416,617<br />

Gross Debt (KW m) 4,643,879 4,617,336 4,943,170 4,973,476 4,245,819<br />

Interest Expense (KW m) (112,190) (151,634) (216,907) (173,297) (161,094)<br />

EBIT (KW m) 1,688,560 (764,017) 765,341 1,548,693 1,606,989<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 42.0% 45.6% 48.6% 43.9% 34.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 74.6% 55.9% 60.7% 71.3% 70.5%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.9x 1.6x 0.9x 0.8x 0.8x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.7x 0.8x 1.6x 1.9x 1.7x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 15.1x - 3.5x 8.9x 10.0x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (KW m) 25,511,535 24,291,289 28,737,221 30,969,389 32,295,904<br />

% Change (YoY) 27.3% (4.8%) 18.3% 7.8% 4.3%<br />

EBITDA (KW m) 4,613,938 2,887,429 5,378,933 5,931,146 5,985,647<br />

% of Sales 18.1% 11.9% 18.7% 19.2% 18.5%<br />

Net Income (KW m) 1,156,343 (771,223) 212,688 1,195,569 1,264,819<br />

% of Sales 4.5% (3.2%) 0.7% 3.9% 3.9%<br />

Free Cash Flow (KW m) (286,491) (612,498) 181,498 1,615,708 933,888<br />

% of Sales (1.1%) (2.5%) 0.6% 5.2% 2.9%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 3,321,838 3,169,379 2,336,274 2,678,101 4,316,347<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (286,491) (612,498) 181,498 1,615,708 933,888<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 3,035,347 2,556,881 2,517,772 4,293,809 5,250,234<br />

Principal Repayments 2,452,047 3,484,984 2,174,166 2,469,693 2,727,657<br />

Interest Payments 112,190 151,634 216,907 173,297 161,094<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 2,564,237 3,636,618 2,391,074 2,642,991 2,888,751<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.2x 0.7x 1.1x 1.6x 1.8x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In KW m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 2,336,274 17.2%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 4,917,038 36.3%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 7,253,312 53.5%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 7,253,312 53.5%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 13,547,771 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

34.5% 30.8% 30.5%<br />

65.5% 69.2% 69.5%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(KW m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 8,766,487 11,110,181 11,324,870<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 4,617,336 4,943,170 4,973,476<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

2.0x<br />

16.0x<br />

14.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

12.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

4.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

1.8x<br />

1.6x<br />

1.6x<br />

1.4x<br />

1.2x<br />

1.0x<br />

1.2x<br />

1.1x<br />

0.8x<br />

0.6x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.7x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EI632782 Corp At Maturity Senior Unsecured KW 300,000.0 300,000.0 100.00 12-Apr-2011 12-Apr-2014 4.42% 4<br />

EI585698 Corp At Maturity Senior Unsecured KW 300,000.0 300,000.0 100.00 28-Feb-2011 28-Feb-2016 4.95% 4<br />

EI787121 Corp At Maturity Senior Unsecured KW 300,000.0 300,000.0 100.00 25-Aug-2011 25-Aug-2016 4.32% 4<br />

222 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (KW)<br />

42,043<br />

37,043<br />

32,043<br />

27,043<br />

22,043<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

17,043<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

LG Display Co., Ltd.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (KW m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 25,511,535 24,291,289 28,737,221 30,969,389 32,295,904<br />

Operating Expenses (20,897,597) (21,403,860) (23,358,288 (25,038,24 (26,310,257)<br />

EBITDA 4,613,938 2,887,429 5,378,933 5,931,146 5,985,647<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (2,925,378) (3,651,446) (4,613,592) (4,382,452) (4,378,658)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 1,688,560 (764,017) 765,341 1,548,693 1,606,989<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (8,456) (86,497) (148,506) (116,932) (77,809)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) (432,727) (246,492) (317,224) 6,272 6,272<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 18,192 16,047 16,176 16,293 16,410<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 1,265,569 (1,080,959) 315,788 1,454,326 1,551,862<br />

Taxes on Profit (106,335) 293,064 (104,473) (259,952) (286,410)<br />

Minority Interests (2,891) 16,672 1,374 1,194 (633)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 1,156,343 (771,223) 212,688 1,195,569 1,264,819<br />

Balance Sheet (KW m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 10,111,541 11,202,072 11,029,569 10,960,625 11,098,016<br />

Long-term Investments 83,246 84,548 84,548 84,548 84,548<br />

Associates 325,532 385,145 387,918 390,711 393,524<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 539,901 535,114 513,794 505,292 524,365<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 15,017,225 17,304,866 16,909,247 16,744,786 17,084,140<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 5,671,054 5,521,791 6,226,539 6,359,011 7,007,249<br />

Total Current Assets 8,840,433 7,858,065 8,904,640 10,675,358 11,423,867<br />

Total Assets 23,857,658 25,162,931 25,813,887 27,420,144 28,508,007<br />

Shareholders' Equity 11,036,057 10,115,732 10,149,512 11,323,812 12,469,075<br />

Total Equity 11,060,967 10,131,028 10,163,435 11,336,540 12,482,435<br />

Long Term Debt 2,542,900 3,722,364 3,508,523 3,194,682 2,380,841<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 3,914,862 5,120,469 4,872,031 4,634,836 3,873,476<br />

Total Current Liabilities 8,881,829 9,911,434 10,778,421 11,448,768 12,152,096<br />

Total Liabilities 12,796,691 15,031,903 15,650,452 16,083,604 16,025,571<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 23,857,658 25,162,931 25,813,887 27,420,144 28,508,007<br />

Cash Flow Statement (KW m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 1,265,569 (1,080,959) 315,788 1,454,326 1,551,862<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 2,925,378 3,651,446 4,613,592 4,382,452 4,378,658<br />

Tax Paid (106,335) 293,064 (104,473) (259,952) (286,410)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 302,675 818,772 (398,688) 231,145 3,257<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 4,883,532 3,665,858 4,396,697 5,830,907 5,649,087<br />

Capital Expenditure (5,170,023) (4,278,356) (4,215,199) (4,215,199) (4,715,199)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 620,996 776,068 6,933 6,983 7,033<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (4,515,167) (3,494,461) (4,201,796) (4,201,699) (4,701,602)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 565,123 (105,050) 325,834 30,307 (727,657)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (178,908) (178,908) (178,908) (21,269) (119,557)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 408,126 (278,249) 146,926 9,038 (847,214)<br />

Change in Cash 776,491 (106,852) 341,827 1,638,246 100,271<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 18.1% 11.9% 18.7% 19.2% 18.5%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 6.6% (3.1%) 2.7% 5.0% 5.0%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 4.5% (3.2%) 0.7% 3.9% 3.9%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 11.0% (7.3%) 2.1% 11.1% 10.6%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 8.2% (2.9%) 3.1% 6.0% 6.0%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 12.4% (5.7%) 3.8% 9.7% 10.0%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 42.0% 45.6% 48.6% 43.9% 34.0%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 27.2% 30.6% 30.3% 13.0% 5.2%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 206.7% 231.8% 251.5% 247.9% 235.1%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.7x 0.8x 1.6x 1.9x 1.7x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 15.1x - 3.5x 8.9x 10.0x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 18.4% 15.3% 17.3% 30.6% 29.6%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 99.5% 79.3% 82.6% 93.2% 94.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 74.6% 55.9% 60.7% 71.3% 70.5%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

223 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Lupin Ltd. (LPC IN)<br />

Sector: Health Care Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology Debt Service Cover (x) 19.2x<br />

Country: India<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 28.4%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 9.8x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Lupin Limited is an Indian pharmaceutical company that manufactures and sells a wide range of<br />

Formulations (branded and generic) and Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients in the developed and<br />

developing markets of the world.<br />

The Company has a wide onshore and offshore presence with its products available in more than 70<br />

countries. It holds a significant market share in key markets in the Cardiovascular (prils and statins),<br />

Diabetology Asthma Pediatrics CNS GI Anti-Infectives Anti-TB and Cephalosporins segments<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Mar) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Rs m) 4,201 4,025 5,931 12,563 18,752<br />

Gross Debt (Rs m) 10,903 14,809 14,376 13,943 13,510<br />

Interest Expense (Rs m) (332) (377) (409) (396) (384)<br />

EBIT (Rs m) 10,067 12,172 16,663 20,210 24,699<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 32.7% 36.2% 28.4% 22.4% 17.7%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 90.9% 83.1% 90.1% 106.7% 122.4%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.9x 0.9x 0.8x 0.6x 0.5x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 24.1x 38.3x 19.2x 23.3x 28.5x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 30.3x 32.3x 40.8x 51.0x 64.3x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (Rs m) 58,190 70,829 91,004 105,562 122,089<br />

% Change (YoY) 19.5% 21.7% 28.5% 16.0% 15.7%<br />

EBITDA (Rs m) 11,778 14,447 19,444 23,335 28,168<br />

% of Sales 20.2% 20.4% 21.4% 22.1% 23.1%<br />

Net Income (Rs m) 8,626 8,677 11,737 14,100 17,278<br />

% of Sales 14.8% 12.2% 12.9% 13.4% 14.2%<br />

Free Cash Flow (Rs m) 3,693 493 4,200 9,441 9,360<br />

% of Sales 6.3% 0.7% 4.6% 8.9% 7.7%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 2,015 4,201 4,025 5,931 12,563<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 3,693 493 4,200 9,441 9,360<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 5,709 4,694 8,225 15,373 21,923<br />

Principal Repayments 139 0 433 433 433<br />

Interest Payments 332 377 409 396 384<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 471 377 842 829 817<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 12.1x 12.4x 9.8x 18.5x 26.8x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In Rs m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 4,025 98.5%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 50,277 1,230.3%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 54,302 1,328.8%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 54,302 1,328.8%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 4,086 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

224 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

5.9%<br />

94.1%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

5.0%<br />

95.0%<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(Rs m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 236,497 274,640 274,640<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 14,809 14,376 13,943<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

45.0x<br />

60.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

35.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

20.0x<br />

18.0x<br />

16.0x<br />

18.5x<br />

14.0x<br />

12.1x 12.4x<br />

12.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

9.8x<br />

2011A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (Rs)<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

4.8%<br />

95.2%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

758<br />

658<br />

558<br />

458<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

358<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Lupin Ltd.<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (Rs m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 58,190 70,829 91,004 105,562 122,089<br />

Operating Expenses (46,411) (56,382) (71,561) (82,227) (93,920)<br />

EBITDA 11,778 14,447 19,444 23,335 28,168<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (1,712) (2,275) (2,781) (3,125) (3,470)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 10,067 12,172 16,663 20,210 24,699<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (281) (262) (284) (222) (140)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 158 51 274 54 62<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 9,944 11,961 16,653 20,042 24,620<br />

Taxes on Profit (1,150) (3,086) (4,676) (5,654) (6,989)<br />

Minority Interests (148) (199) (240) (288) (353)<br />

Other Post-tax Items (20) 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 8,626 8,677 11,737 14,100 17,278<br />

Balance Sheet (Rs m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 15,401 20,577 23,609 26,269 28,587<br />

Long-term Investments 32 28 28 28 28<br />

Associates 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 5,168 6,950 6,641 6,305 5,952<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 29,074 36,369 39,860 42,662 45,133<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 27,968 38,947 46,538 51,584 60,593<br />

Total Current Assets 32,170 42,972 52,470 64,148 79,345<br />

Total Assets 61,244 79,340 92,330 106,809 124,479<br />

Shareholders' Equity 32,811 40,129 49,589 60,954 74,881<br />

Total Equity 33,326 40,852 50,552 62,204 76,483<br />

Long Term Debt 2,992 4,330 3,897 3,464 3,031<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 5,716 7,642 7,209 6,776 6,343<br />

Total Current Liabilities 22,201 30,846 34,569 37,829 41,652<br />

Total Liabilities 27,918 38,488 41,778 44,605 47,995<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 61,244 79,340 92,330 106,809 124,479<br />

Cash Flow Statement (Rs m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 9,944 11,961 16,653 20,042 24,620<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 1,712 2,275 2,781 3,125 3,470<br />

Tax Paid (2,440) (3,139) (4,676) (5,654) (6,989)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (1,596) (5,816) (5,340) (2,772) (6,331)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 7,980 5,591 9,700 14,961 14,910<br />

Capital Expenditure (4,287) (5,099) (5,500) (5,520) (5,550)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (41) (2,225) 106 121 137<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (5,196) (7,413) (5,268) (5,223) (5,168)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 1 3,076 (433) (433) (433)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 138 52 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (1,432) (1,652) (1,684) (2,277) (2,735)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (1,625) 1,098 (2,525) (3,106) (3,553)<br />

Change in Cash 1,159 (723) 1,907 6,632 6,189<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 20.2% 20.4% 21.4% 22.1% 23.1%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 17.3% 17.2% 18.3% 19.1% 20.2%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 14.8% 12.2% 12.9% 13.4% 14.2%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 29.5% 23.8% 26.2% 25.5% 25.4%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 18.1% 17.4% 19.6% 20.5% 21.6%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 22.6% 18.5% 20.5% 22.5% 25.0%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 32.7% 36.2% 28.4% 22.4% 17.7%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 20.1% 26.4% 16.7% 2.2% -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 191.7% 192.7% 191.3% 180.1% 170.3%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 24.1x 38.3x 19.2x 23.3x 28.5x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 30.3x 32.3x 40.8x 51.0x 64.3x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 18.9% 13.0% 17.2% 33.2% 45.0%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 144.9% 139.3% 151.8% 169.6% 190.5%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 90.9% 83.1% 90.1% 106.7% 122.4%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

225 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


M1 Ltd. (M1 SP)<br />

Sector: Telecommunication Services Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Telecommunication Services Debt Service Cover (x) 4.3x<br />

Country: Singapore<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 83.7%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 2.7x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

M1 is an established brand that provides mobile communications services to over 2 million customers in<br />

Singapore, international call services to mobile and fixed-line users, wireless broadband services to<br />

home, office and mobile users, and fixed broadband services to home users.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (S$ '000) 8,783 11,837 12,508 21,503 23,827<br />

Gross Debt (S$ '000) 316,000 303,300 290,000 250,000 200,000<br />

Interest Expense (S$ '000) (5,905) (5,417) (5,765) (5,466) (4,674)<br />

EBIT (S$ '000) 193,489 200,810 185,686 208,340 218,042<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 104.3% 94.0% 83.7% 63.8% 46.3%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 70.1% 72.2% 41.5% 76.0% 77.9%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.9x 1.0x 1.0x 0.8x 0.7x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 3.4x 4.3x 4.3x 0.9x 5.3x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 32.8x 37.1x 32.2x 38.1x 46.7x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (S$ '000) 979,179 1,064,896 1,078,610 1,119,788 1,154,912<br />

% Change (YoY) 25.3% 8.8% 1.3% 3.8% 3.1%<br />

EBITDA (S$ '000) 310,489 307,878 295,811 325,427 341,459<br />

% of Sales 31.7% 28.9% 27.4% 29.1% 29.6%<br />

Net Income (S$ '000) 157,056 164,063 152,709 171,962 180,771<br />

% of Sales 16.0% 15.4% 14.2% 15.4% 15.7%<br />

Free Cash Flow (S$ '000) 73,424 166,655 148,479 181,082 197,693<br />

% of Sales 7.5% 15.6% 13.8% 16.2% 17.1%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 7,439 8,783 11,837 12,508 21,503<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 73,424 166,655 148,479 181,082 197,693<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 80,863 175,438 160,316 193,589 219,196<br />

Principal Repayments 69,500 55,700 53,300 290,000 50,000<br />

Interest Payments 5,905 5,417 5,765 5,466 4,674<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 75,405 61,117 59,065 295,466 54,674<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.1x 2.9x 2.7x 0.7x 4.0x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In S$ '000)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 11,837 2.3%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 977,761 189.6%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 989,598 191.9%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 989,598 191.9%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 515,633 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

226 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

11.8%<br />

88.2%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(S$ '000) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 2,269,914 2,460,587 2,451,508<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 303,300 290,000 250,000<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

4.5x<br />

40.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.5x<br />

38.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

36.0x<br />

2.5x<br />

2.0x<br />

34.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

32.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

30.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

28.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

3.5x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

10.5%<br />

89.5%<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Share Price (S$)<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

9.3%<br />

90.7%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

3.0x<br />

2.5x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

1.1x<br />

2.9x<br />

2.7x<br />

0.7x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

3.45<br />

3.25<br />

3.05<br />

2.85<br />

2.65<br />

2.45<br />

2.25<br />

2.05<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

M1 Ltd.<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (S$ '000) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 979,179 1,064,896 1,078,610 1,119,788 1,154,912<br />

Operating Expenses (668,690) (757,018) (782,799) (794,361) (813,453)<br />

EBITDA 310,489 307,878 295,811 325,427 341,459<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (117,000) (107,068) (110,125) (117,087) (123,417)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 193,489 200,810 185,686 208,340 218,042<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (5,831) (5,936) (5,909) (5,366) (4,455)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 2,274 1,737 1,800 1,800 1,800<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 190,462 197,406 181,577 204,774 215,387<br />

Taxes on Profit (33,406) (33,343) (28,868) (32,811) (34,616)<br />

Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 157,056 164,063 152,709 171,962 180,771<br />

Balance Sheet (S$ '000)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 554,030 557,269 596,046 608,976 610,635<br />

Long-term Investments 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Associates 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 99,255 110,586 100,453 90,320 80,187<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 700,774 717,941 727,816 720,728 707,312<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 224,936 248,788 256,665 256,838 273,230<br />

Total Current Assets 233,719 260,625 269,172 278,341 297,057<br />

Total Assets 934,493 978,566 996,988 999,069 1,004,368<br />

Shareholders' Equity 302,894 322,547 346,488 391,795 431,825<br />

Total Equity 302,894 322,547 346,488 391,795 431,825<br />

Long Term Debt 250,000 250,000 0 200,000 150,000<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 331,628 345,330 95,330 295,330 245,330<br />

Total Current Liabilities 299,971 310,689 555,171 311,945 327,213<br />

Total Liabilities 631,599 656,019 650,501 607,275 572,543<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 934,493 978,566 996,988 999,069 1,004,368<br />

Cash Flow Statement (S$ '000)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 190,462 197,406 181,577 204,774 215,387<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 117,000 107,068 110,125 117,087 123,417<br />

Tax Paid (37,097) (34,933) (25,937) (29,168) (31,728)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (83,808) 14,558 (3,195) (6,977) (3,837)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 193,292 291,038 268,479 291,082 307,693<br />

Capital Expenditure (119,868) (124,383) (120,000) (110,000) (110,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (465) 128 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (120,319) (124,233) (119,976) (109,966) (109,955)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 47,000 (12,700) (13,300) (40,000) (50,000)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 8,520 15,686 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (121,244) (161,320) (128,769) (126,655) (140,741)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (71,629) (163,751) (147,833) (172,121) (195,415)<br />

Change in Cash 1,344 3,054 671 8,995 2,324<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 31.7% 28.9% 27.4% 29.1% 29.6%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 19.8% 18.9% 17.2% 18.6% 18.9%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 16.0% 15.4% 14.2% 15.4% 15.7%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 56.2% 52.5% 45.7% 46.6% 43.9%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 21.8% 21.0% 18.8% 20.9% 21.8%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 24.6% 23.8% 21.9% 24.4% 25.8%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 104.3% 94.0% 83.7% 63.8% 46.3%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 101.4% 90.4% 80.1% 58.3% 40.8%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 317.0% 305.9% 295.3% 270.4% 243.2%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 3.4x 4.3x 4.3x 0.9x 5.3x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 32.8x 37.1x 32.2x 38.1x 46.7x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 2.9% 3.8% 2.3% 6.9% 7.3%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 77.9% 83.9% 48.5% 89.2% 90.8%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 70.1% 72.2% 41.5% 76.0% 77.9%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

227 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Malaysian Airline System Berhad (MAS MK)<br />

Sector: Industrials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Transportation<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) -<br />

Country: Malaysia<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 748.1%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) (3.1x)<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Malaysian Airline System Berhad is the national carrier of Malaysia and is one of the world’s most<br />

respected airlines. The company was incorporated as Malayan Airways Limited in 1937. Today, MAS<br />

flies an average of 43,000 passengers daily to some 100 destinations worldwide and holds a lengthy<br />

record of service and best practices excellence. The airline operates predominantly in two business<br />

segments, being airline passenger and cargo services.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (RM '000) 2,224,657 1,115,537 799,545 1,834,204 818,172<br />

Gross Debt (RM '000) 3,708,780 5,669,994 10,371,943 12,304,663 12,520,557<br />

Interest Expense (RM '000) (176,435) (197,773) (313,946) (455,032) (498,004)<br />

EBIT (RM '000) (424,510) (2,034,811) (710,314) (74,019) 346,696<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 104.8% 536.9% 748.1% 450.7% 430.5%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 65.9% 33.5% 27.0% 32.2% 23.6%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) - - - 14.9x 9.3x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) - - - 0.5x 0.5x<br />

Interest Cover (x) - - - - 0.7x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (RM '000) 12,978,396 13,653,894 13,595,058 14,763,680 15,956,609<br />

% Change (YoY) 14.4% 5.2% (0.4%) 8.6% 8.1%<br />

EBITDA (RM '000) (24,592) (1,577,818) (39,729) 760,981 1,330,248<br />

% of Sales (0.2%) (11.6%) (0.3%) 5.2% 8.3%<br />

Net Income (RM '000) 234,469 (2,523,988) (669,697) (158,567) 176,571<br />

% of Sales 1.8% (18.5%) (4.9%) (1.1%) 1.1%<br />

Free Cash Flow (RM '000) (3,524,926) (3,962,876) (3,242,098) (989,685) 217,823<br />

% of Sales (27.2%) (29.0%) (23.8%) (6.7%) 1.4%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 2,952,325 2,224,657 1,115,537 799,545 1,834,204<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (3,524,926) (3,962,876) (3,242,098) (989,685) 217,823<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) (572,601) (1,738,219) (2,126,561) (190,139) 2,052,027<br />

Principal Repayments 468,967 383,730 378,423 1,067,280 1,784,106<br />

Interest Payments 176,435 197,773 313,946 455,032 498,004<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 645,402 581,503 692,369 1,522,312 2,282,110<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) (0.9x) (3.0x) (3.1x) (0.1x) 0.9x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In RM '000)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 1,115,537 13.7%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation (2,494,082) (30.6%)<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation (1,378,545) (16.9%)<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments (1,378,545) (16.9%)<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 8,143,854 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

228 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

56.6%<br />

43.4%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(RM '000) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 4,344,803 2,372,931 2,406,352<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 5,669,994 10,371,943 12,304,663<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

0.6x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

0.0x<br />

(0.5x)<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

(0.1x)<br />

(1.0x)<br />

(1.5x)<br />

(0.9x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

Share Price (RM)<br />

81.4% 83.6%<br />

18.6% 16.4%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

0.5x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.3x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.1x<br />

0.0x<br />

0<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

(2.0x)<br />

(2.5x)<br />

(3.0x)<br />

(3.5x)<br />

(3.0x) (3.1x)<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

1<br />

1<br />

1<br />

0<br />

0<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

1.99<br />

1.79<br />

1.59<br />

1.39<br />

1.19<br />

0.99<br />

0.79<br />

0.59<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Malaysian Airline System Berhad<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (RM '000) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 12,978,396 13,653,894 13,595,058 14,763,680 15,956,609<br />

Operating Expenses (13,002,988) (15,231,712) (13,634,787 (14,002,69 (14,626,362)<br />

EBITDA (24,592) (1,577,818) (39,729) 760,981 1,330,248<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (399,918) (456,993) (670,586) (835,000) (983,552)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) (424,510) (2,034,811) (710,314) (74,019) 346,696<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (85,251) (124,656) (235,695) (383,195) (439,981)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 780,437 144,304 238,844 267,436 291,108<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 17,581 10,728 24,009 27,634 31,807<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 282,036 (2,512,884) (683,157) (162,144) 229,630<br />

Taxes on Profit (44,690) (8,441) 16,791 7,444 (49,456)<br />

Minority Interests (2,877) (2,663) (3,332) (3,867) (3,603)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 234,469 (2,523,988) (669,697) (158,567) 176,571<br />

Balance Sheet (RM '000)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 4,211,325 5,317,799 12,889,032 15,566,589 17,898,686<br />

Long-term Investments 54,604 54,599 54,599 54,599 54,599<br />

Associates 104,164 120,043 138,169 159,033 183,047<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 137,732 151,757 156,216 152,675 141,134<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 8,405,927 9,744,653 14,888,373 17,368,237 18,988,699<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 1,822,471 1,639,286 1,904,645 1,977,643 2,111,128<br />

Total Current Assets 4,047,128 2,754,823 2,704,190 3,811,847 2,929,300<br />

Total Assets 12,453,055 12,499,476 17,592,563 21,180,084 21,917,999<br />

Shareholders' Equity 3,524,166 1,042,508 1,371,001 2,712,434 2,889,005<br />

Total Equity 3,537,244 1,056,147 1,386,472 2,730,033 2,908,585<br />

Long Term Debt 3,414,913 4,290,583 7,723,303 7,939,197 8,671,831<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 3,425,070 4,309,347 7,742,067 7,957,961 8,690,595<br />

Total Current Liabilities 5,490,741 7,133,982 8,464,024 10,492,090 10,318,819<br />

Total Liabilities 8,915,811 11,443,329 16,206,091 18,450,051 19,009,414<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 12,453,055 12,499,476 17,592,563 21,180,084 21,917,999<br />

Cash Flow Statement (RM '000)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 282,036 (2,512,884) (683,157) (162,144) 229,630<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 399,918 456,993 670,586 835,000 983,552<br />

Tax Paid (8,606) 2,879 0 0 (6,227)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (146,533) 220,516 (924,062) (566,316) (710,858)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 242,429 (398,846) 7,902 1,260,315 1,767,823<br />

Capital Expenditure (3,767,355) (3,564,030) (3,250,000) (2,250,000) (1,550,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 193,538 1,344,861 (67,070) (31,921) 3,136<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (3,512,390) (2,164,355) (3,275,658) (2,233,526) (1,496,987)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 276,259 1,810,567 2,621,577 932,720 (784,106)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 2,673,725 0 998,190 1,500,000 0<br />

Dividends Paid 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 2,744,376 1,598,238 2,884,693 1,975,948 (1,283,732)<br />

Change in Cash (525,585) (964,963) (383,062) 1,002,737 (1,012,895)<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) (0.2%) (11.6%) (0.3%) 5.2% 8.3%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) (3.3%) (14.9%) (5.2%) (0.5%) 2.2%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 1.8% (18.5%) (4.9%) (1.1%) 1.1%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 11.1% (110.5%) (55.5%) (7.8%) 6.3%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) (3.5%) (16.1%) (4.6%) (0.2%) 1.7%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) (14.0%) (39.4%) (8.7%) (0.6%) 2.0%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 104.8% 536.9% 748.1% 450.7% 430.5%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 45.9% 440.8% 697.7% 387.2% 405.8%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 497.3% 546.4% 1,246.8% 949.5% 769.4%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) - - - 0.5x 0.5x<br />

Interest Cover (x) - - - - 0.7x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 38.0% 14.2% 8.3% 16.5% 6.9%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 73.7% 38.6% 31.9% 36.3% 28.4%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 65.9% 33.5% 27.0% 32.2% 23.6%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

229 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Maroc Telecom (IAM MC)<br />

Sector: Telecommunication Services Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Telecommunication Services Debt Service Cover (x) 1.9x<br />

Country: Morocco<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 40.9%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.5x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Maroc Telecom Limited (Maroc Telecom or the Company) is the incumbent telecommunications operator<br />

in the Kingdom of Morocco, and operates in fixed-line, mobile, and internet business segments. As part<br />

of its international development, the Company has made acquisitions outside of Morocco since 2001 and<br />

now has operations in Mauritania, Burkina Faso, Gabon, and Mali, with strong operating positions in<br />

most markets where it is active. As of 31 December 2011, the Company had a total subscriber base of<br />

29 million and a mobile subscriber market share of 47% in Morocco.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (MAD m) 988 788 1,907 2,937 2,011<br />

Gross Debt (MAD m) 5,354 7,601 8,782 8,437 6,291<br />

Interest Expense (MAD m) (273) (331) (410) (430) (368)<br />

EBIT (MAD m) 14,567 12,607 11,507 11,331 11,022<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 22.9% 34.4% 40.9% 39.4% 29.6%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 56.2% 51.4% 67.7% 71.6% 67.3%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.3x 0.4x 0.5x 0.5x 0.4x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 11.3x 9.4x 1.9x 5.4x 4.8x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 53.4x 38.1x 28.1x 26.3x 29.9x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (MAD m) 31,617 30,837 30,737 31,030 31,146<br />

% Change (YoY) 4.3% (2.5%) (0.3%) 1.0% 0.4%<br />

EBITDA (MAD m) 18,918 17,244 16,454 16,533 16,464<br />

% of Sales 59.8% 55.9% 53.5% 53.3% 52.9%<br />

Net Income (MAD m) 9,532 8,124 7,481 7,370 7,206<br />

% of Sales 30.1% 26.3% 24.3% 23.8% 23.1%<br />

Free Cash Flow (MAD m) 8,986 7,433 8,702 9,465 9,204<br />

% of Sales 28.4% 24.1% 28.3% 30.5% 29.6%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 975 988 788 1,907 2,937<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 8,986 7,432 8,702 9,465 9,204<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 9,961 8,420 9,490 11,372 12,140<br />

Principal Repayments 986 1,060 5,819 1,846 2,146<br />

Interest Payments 273 331 410 430 368<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 1,259 1,391 6,229 2,276 2,514<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 7.9x 6.1x 1.5x 5.0x 4.8x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In MAD m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 788 5.0%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 47,372 301.3%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 48,160 306.3%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 48,160 306.3%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 15,724 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

230 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

6.0%<br />

94.0%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(MAD m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 119,205 93,184 93,228<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 7,601 8,782 8,437<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

12.0x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

8.6%<br />

91.4%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

9.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

7.9x<br />

7.0x<br />

6.1x<br />

6.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (MAD)<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

8.3%<br />

91.7%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

10.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

60.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

159<br />

139<br />

119<br />

99<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

79<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Maroc Telecom<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (MAD m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 31,617 30,837 30,737 31,030 31,146<br />

Operating Expenses (12,699) (13,593) (14,283) (14,498) (14,682)<br />

EBITDA 18,918 17,244 16,454 16,533 16,464<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (4,351) (4,637) (4,948) (5,202) (5,442)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 14,567 12,607 11,507 11,331 11,022<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (236) (311) (374) (363) (299)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) (232) (290) 0 0 0<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 14,099 12,006 11,132 10,968 10,723<br />

Taxes on Profit (4,158) (3,559) (3,340) (3,290) (3,217)<br />

Minority Interests (409) (323) (312) (307) (300)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 9,532 8,124 7,481 7,370 7,206<br />

Balance Sheet (MAD m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 23,378 24,850 25,021 24,481 23,742<br />

Long-term Investments 444 297 297 297 297<br />

Associates 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 10,929 10,546 9,827 9,066 8,263<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 34,866 35,743 35,196 33,895 32,353<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 11,233 12,110 12,278 12,530 12,414<br />

Total Current Assets 12,221 12,898 14,185 15,466 14,425<br />

Total Assets 47,087 48,641 49,381 49,361 46,778<br />

Shareholders' Equity 18,996 17,781 17,122 17,011 16,773<br />

Total Equity 23,392 22,085 21,488 21,439 21,261<br />

Long Term Debt 2,404 1,782 6,937 6,291 4,146<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 3,338 2,839 7,994 7,348 5,203<br />

Total Current Liabilities 20,357 23,717 19,900 20,574 20,315<br />

Total Liabilities 23,695 26,556 27,893 27,922 25,518<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 47,087 48,641 49,381 49,361 46,778<br />

Cash Flow Statement (MAD m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 14,099 12,006 11,132 10,968 10,723<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 4,351 4,637 4,948 5,202 5,442<br />

Tax Paid (3,697) (4,173) (3,493) (3,290) (3,217)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 1,255 40 141 123 (143)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 16,079 12,718 13,102 13,365 13,104<br />

Capital Expenditure (7,093) (5,285) (4,400) (3,900) (3,900)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (59) 188 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (7,114) (5,074) (4,365) (3,832) (3,831)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (600) 2,156 1,181 (346) (2,146)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (9,065) (9,301) (8,140) (7,481) (7,444)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (9,047) (7,808) (7,618) (8,503) (10,198)<br />

Change in Cash (82) (164) 1,120 1,030 (925)<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 59.8% 55.9% 53.5% 53.3% 52.9%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 46.1% 40.9% 37.4% 36.5% 35.4%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 30.1% 26.3% 24.3% 23.8% 23.1%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 50.8% 44.2% 42.9% 43.2% 42.7%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 31.4% 26.4% 23.5% 23.1% 23.1%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 37.3% 30.6% 27.4% 27.9% 28.6%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 22.9% 34.4% 40.9% 39.4% 29.6%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 19.5% 31.6% 32.8% 26.5% 20.9%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 247.7% 260.3% 280.8% 289.3% 284.6%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 11.3x 9.4x 1.9x 5.4x 4.8x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 53.4x 38.1x 28.1x 26.3x 29.9x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 3.9% 2.6% 8.7% 13.4% 9.1%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 60.0% 54.4% 71.3% 75.2% 71.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 56.2% 51.4% 67.7% 71.6% 67.3%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

231 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. (MSIL IN)<br />

Sector: Consumer Discretionary Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Automobiles & Components<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 2.6x<br />

Country: India<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 3.7%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 6.6x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Maruti Suzuki India Limited is the largest manufacturer of passenger vehicles in India. It also exports<br />

entry-level passenger vehicles to over 120 countries across the globe. Some important export markets of<br />

the company include Latin America, Africa, South East Asia and Oceana. In India, the company’s<br />

principal products comprise passenger cars, vans and multi utility vehicles including 15 brands with over<br />

150 variants. Within passenger cars, it offers a complete range of products from the entry-level Maruti<br />

800 and Alto, to compact cars - Ritz, A-Star, Swift, WagonR, Zen Estillo, and sedans - SX4 and Swift<br />

DZire.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Mar) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Rs m) 65,276 72,175 58,167 68,000 84,434<br />

Gross Debt (Rs m) 5,764 15,573 6,430 2,465 1,785<br />

Interest Expense (Rs m) (314) (421) (943) (359) (243)<br />

EBIT (Rs m) 26,578 13,781 17,912 29,093 33,554<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 4.0% 9.9% 3.7% 1.2% 0.8%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 202.4% 140.8% 136.3% 161.5% 189.4%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.2x 0.4x 0.3x 0.1x 0.0x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 5.3x 9.1x 2.6x 7.4x 33.2x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 84.6x 32.7x 19.0x 81.1x 138.3x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (Rs m) 363,330 351,972 421,091 500,024 549,144<br />

% Change (YoY) 24.0% (3.1%) 19.6% 18.7% 9.8%<br />

EBITDA (Rs m) 36,891 25,408 32,784 45,787 52,297<br />

% of Sales 10.2% 7.2% 7.8% 9.2% 9.5%<br />

Net Income (Rs m) 23,824 16,810 19,883 27,832 31,693<br />

% of Sales 6.6% 4.8% 4.7% 5.6% 5.8%<br />

Free Cash Flow (Rs m) 6,766 1,714 (4,049) 11,833 17,532<br />

% of Sales 1.9% 0.5% (1.0%) 2.4% 3.2%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 54,360 65,276 72,175 58,167 68,000<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 6,766 1,714 (4,049) 11,833 17,532<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 61,126 66,990 68,126 70,000 85,532<br />

Principal Repayments 4,845 1,816 9,443 4,265 980<br />

Interest Payments 314 421 943 359 243<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 5,159 2,237 10,386 4,624 1,223<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 11.8x 29.9x 6.6x 15.1x 69.9x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In Rs m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 72,175 411.7%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 72,780 415.1%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 144,955 826.8%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 144,955 826.8%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 17,532 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

232 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

3.8%<br />

96.2%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(Rs m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 390,173 449,949 449,949<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 15,573 6,430 2,465<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

35.0x<br />

1.4%<br />

98.6%<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

0.5%<br />

99.5%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

10.0x<br />

90.0x<br />

80.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

70.0x<br />

60.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (Rs)<br />

30.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

1781<br />

1581<br />

1381<br />

1181<br />

981<br />

11.8x<br />

29.9x<br />

6.6x<br />

15.1x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

781<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Maruti Suzuki India Ltd.<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (Rs m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 363,330 351,972 421,091 500,024 549,144<br />

Operating Expenses (334,667) (335,491) (398,339) (464,749) (508,339)<br />

EBITDA 36,891 25,408 32,784 45,787 52,297<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (10,313) (11,627) (14,872) (16,694) (18,743)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 26,578 13,781 17,912 29,093 33,554<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 1,795 3,431 1,936 2,463 2,707<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 2,459 1,821 2,474 2,957 3,581<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 31,350 21,451 24,092 36,971 42,165<br />

Taxes on Profit (8,279) (5,115) (4,817) (9,795) (11,180)<br />

Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items 753 474 607 656 709<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 23,824 16,810 19,883 27,832 31,693<br />

Balance Sheet (Rs m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 56,261 75,340 95,877 103,152 109,157<br />

Long-term Investments 8,726 10,316 13,987 16,756 21,793<br />

Associates 5,711 7,593 8,200 8,856 9,565<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 457 2,115 2,500 2,354 1,959<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 94,469 119,399 141,372 153,103 165,106<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 32,188 40,245 40,632 42,064 43,323<br />

Total Current Assets 97,464 112,420 98,799 110,064 127,757<br />

Total Assets 191,933 231,819 240,171 263,167 292,863<br />

Shareholders' Equity 143,088 156,745 174,640 199,688 228,212<br />

Total Equity 143,088 156,745 174,640 199,688 228,212<br />

Long Term Debt 2,747 1,698 0 0 0<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 7,798 8,304 6,817 7,066 7,321<br />

Total Current Liabilities 41,047 66,770 58,714 56,413 57,330<br />

Total Liabilities 48,845 75,074 65,531 63,478 64,650<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 191,933 231,819 240,171 263,167 292,863<br />

Cash Flow Statement (Rs m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 31,350 21,451 24,092 36,971 42,165<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 10,313 11,627 14,872 16,694 18,743<br />

Tax Paid (9,888) (3,268) (6,091) (9,795) (11,180)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 1,690 3,375 3,434 (315) 205<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 30,707 31,633 30,951 36,833 42,532<br />

Capital Expenditure (23,941) (29,919) (35,000) (25,000) (25,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 20,254 (13,562) 3,121 (9,271) (18,534)<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (100) (38,488) (26,726) (28,993) (37,503)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (4,516) 9,108 (9,143) (3,965) (680)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (2,084) (2,518) (2,518) (1,988) (2,783)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (6,914) 6,169 (12,604) (6,312) (3,706)<br />

Change in Cash 23,693 (686) (8,379) 1,528 1,323<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 10.2% 7.2% 7.8% 9.2% 9.5%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 7.3% 3.9% 4.3% 5.8% 6.1%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 6.6% 4.8% 4.7% 5.6% 5.8%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 18.0% 11.2% 12.0% 14.9% 14.8%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 15.9% 8.4% 8.8% 12.7% 13.1%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 29.4% 12.9% 14.6% 19.2% 20.8%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 4.0% 9.9% 3.7% 1.2% 0.8%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 136.5% 141.3% 142.4% 134.5% 129.9%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 5.3x 9.1x 2.6x 7.4x 33.2x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 84.6x 32.7x 19.0x 81.1x 138.3x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 61.7% 36.9% 27.7% 31.5% 33.3%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 237.4% 168.4% 168.3% 195.1% 222.8%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 202.4% 140.8% 136.3% 161.5% 189.4%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

233 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


MediaTek Inc. (2454 TT)<br />

Sector: Information Technology Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Semiconductors & Semiconductor Debt Service Cover (x) 273.2x<br />

Country: Taiwan<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 8.8%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1,808.8x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

MediaTek Inc. is one of the world’s largest fabless semiconductor companies for wireless<br />

communications and digital multimedia solutions. It is involved in research, development, production,<br />

sales of multimedia integrated circuits (ICs), computer peripheral ICs, high-end digital consumer ICs,<br />

other application specific ICs, patent and circuit-layout licensing and services. It started supplying cheap<br />

handset ICs to the China market with smart phones and the 3G services.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (NT$ m) 85,927 85,821 93,534 96,441 105,692<br />

Gross Debt (NT$ m) 0 4,157 10,639 49 49<br />

Interest Expense (NT$ m) 0 (9) (37) (26) 0<br />

EBIT (NT$ m) 31,079 12,345 12,955 23,047 24,316<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 0.0% 3.6% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 400.2% 337.4% 268.2% 305.7% 324.7%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) - 0.1x 0.5x 0.2x 0.0x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) - 1,607.4x 273.2x 2.2x -<br />

Interest Cover (x) - 1,316.3x 353.0x 870.6x -<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (NT$ m) 113,522 86,857 101,568 134,655 141,199<br />

% Change (YoY) (1.7%) (23.5%) 16.9% 32.6% 4.9%<br />

EBITDA (NT$ m) 34,056 15,074 15,262 25,516 26,927<br />

% of Sales 30.0% 17.4% 15.0% 18.9% 19.1%<br />

Net Income (NT$ m) 30,961 13,623 15,477 23,726 25,091<br />

% of Sales 27.3% 15.7% 15.2% 17.6% 17.8%<br />

Free Cash Flow (NT$ m) 26,460 13,913 13,259 26,881 28,931<br />

% of Sales 23.3% 16.0% 13.1% 20.0% 20.5%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 94,648 85,927 85,821 93,534 96,441<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 26,460 13,913 13,259 26,881 28,931<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 121,107 99,841 99,080 120,415 125,371<br />

Principal Repayments 0 0 18 10,589 0<br />

Interest Payments 0 9 37 26 0<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 0 9 55 10,616 0<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) - 10,646.3x 1,808.8x 11.3x -<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In NT$ m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 85,821 804.3%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 124,970 1,171.2%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 210,792 1,975.5%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 210,792 1,975.5%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 10,670 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

234 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

98.7% 97.2% 100.0%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity<br />

(NT$ m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 318,434 371,220 374,089<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 4,157 10,639 49<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

1800.0x<br />

1400<br />

1600.0x<br />

1200<br />

1400.0x<br />

1200.0x<br />

1000<br />

1000.0x<br />

800<br />

800.0x<br />

600<br />

600.0x<br />

400.0x<br />

400<br />

200.0x<br />

200<br />

0.0x<br />

0<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

12000.0x<br />

10000.0x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

8000.0x<br />

6000.0x<br />

10646.3x<br />

4000.0x<br />

2000.0x<br />

1808.8x<br />

0.0x<br />

0<br />

11.3x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Share Price (NT$)<br />

401<br />

351<br />

301<br />

251<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

201<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

MediaTek Inc.<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (NT$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 113,522 86,857 101,568 134,655 141,199<br />

Operating Expenses (79,466) (71,783) (86,306) (109,139) (114,272)<br />

EBITDA 34,056 15,074 15,262 25,516 26,927<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (2,978) (2,729) (2,307) (2,468) (2,611)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 31,079 12,345 12,955 23,047 24,316<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 586 1,007 1,039 1,113 1,213<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 487 743 2,266 1,410 1,507<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 180 124 123 123 123<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 32,288 14,203 16,383 25,693 27,158<br />

Taxes on Profit (1,351) (587) (935) (1,968) (2,067)<br />

Minority Interests 25 7 29 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 30,961 13,623 15,477 23,726 25,091<br />

Balance Sheet (NT$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 7,563 8,281 9,262 9,466 9,639<br />

Long-term Investments 6,076 7,582 8,195 8,616 8,905<br />

Associates 1,659 1,835 1,833 1,831 1,829<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 9,572 16,151 15,668 15,550 15,721<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 25,439 35,699 36,808 37,313 37,945<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 26,668 26,221 34,278 40,277 37,628<br />

Total Current Assets 112,595 112,042 127,813 136,718 143,320<br />

Total Assets 138,035 147,741 164,620 174,031 181,264<br />

Shareholders' Equity 111,713 116,278 121,497 133,694 141,111<br />

Total Equity 111,713 116,328 121,518 133,715 141,132<br />

Long Term Debt 0 49 49 49 49<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 535 985 984 984 984<br />

Total Current Liabilities 25,786 30,428 42,118 39,332 39,148<br />

Total Liabilities 26,321 31,413 43,102 40,317 40,132<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 138,035 147,741 164,620 174,031 181,264<br />

Cash Flow Statement (NT$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 32,288 14,203 16,383 25,693 27,158<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 2,978 2,729 2,307 2,468 2,611<br />

Tax Paid (1,351) (587) (935) (1,968) (2,067)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (10,905) (298) (2,333) 2,095 2,733<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 29,408 16,707 15,459 28,381 30,431<br />

Capital Expenditure (2,948) (2,794) (2,200) (1,500) (1,500)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (3,326) 3,810 (1,165) (801) (551)<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (6,274) 1,016 (3,970) (3,356) (3,506)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 0 3,981 6,500 (10,589) 0<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 69 (2,106) 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (28,141) (21,844) (10,258) (11,529) (17,673)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (28,073) (19,917) (3,776) (22,118) (17,673)<br />

Change in Cash (4,940) (2,194) 7,713 2,906 9,251<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 30.0% 17.4% 15.0% 18.9% 19.1%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 27.4% 14.2% 12.8% 17.1% 17.2%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 27.3% 15.7% 15.2% 17.6% 17.8%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 28.1% 12.0% 13.0% 18.6% 18.3%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 22.9% 9.4% 9.0% 14.3% 14.4%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 225.5% 52.9% 43.9% 74.2% 84.0%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 0.0% 3.6% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 125.4% 125.3% 131.4% 132.7% 129.3%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) - 1,607.4x 273.2x 2.2x -<br />

Interest Cover (x) - 1,316.3x 353.0x 870.6x -<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 333.2% 282.0% 222.1% 245.2% 270.0%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 436.6% 368.2% 303.5% 347.6% 366.1%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 400.2% 337.4% 268.2% 305.7% 324.7%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

235 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Motherson Sumi Systems Ltd. (MSS IN)<br />

Sector: Consumer Discretionary Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Automobiles & Components<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.7x<br />

Country: India<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 165.2%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.4x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Motherson Sumi Systems Limited (MSSL), the flagship company of the Samvardhana Motherson Group<br />

is a joint venture between Samvardhana Motherson Finance Limited, India and Sumitomo Wiring<br />

Systems, Ltd., Japan. Building on its position as the largest manufacturer of wiring harnesses for<br />

passenger cars in India, MSSL is one of the largest manufacturers of rearview mirrors for passenger<br />

cars in the world. It is also one of the largest manufacturers of IP modules, door trims and bumpers in<br />

Europe and a leading supplier of plastic components and modules to the automotive industry.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Mar) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Rs m) 3,532 4,557 5,217 4,282 2,896<br />

Gross Debt (Rs m) 12,607 46,023 44,789 39,407 32,825<br />

Interest Expense (Rs m) (568) (1,571) (2,543) (2,947) (2,528)<br />

EBIT (Rs m) 5,203 5,648 11,097 14,529 15,859<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 68.7% 193.8% 165.2% 122.5% 86.3%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 71.0% 66.4% 66.7% 65.4% 62.6%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 1.4x 3.1x 2.6x 1.9x 1.5x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.7x 0.2x 1.7x 1.7x 1.8x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 8.6x 3.8x 4.4x 4.9x 6.3x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (Rs m) 82,491 147,766 249,442 281,180 308,656<br />

% Change (YoY) 21.9% 79.1% 68.8% 12.7% 9.8%<br />

EBITDA (Rs m) 7,668 9,444 17,431 21,702 23,539<br />

% of Sales 9.3% 6.4% 7.0% 7.7% 7.6%<br />

Net Income (Rs m) 3,908 2,587 5,165 7,119 8,259<br />

% of Sales 4.7% 1.8% 2.1% 2.5% 2.7%<br />

Free Cash Flow (Rs m) (3,769) (4,870) 5,366 9,367 10,503<br />

% of Sales (4.6%) (3.3%) 2.2% 3.3% 3.4%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 3,434 3,532 4,557 5,217 4,282<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (3,769) (4,871) 5,366 9,367 10,503<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) (335) (1,339) 9,923 14,584 14,785<br />

Principal Repayments 2,804 24,892 4,734 6,382 6,582<br />

Interest Payments 607 1,471 2,543 2,947 2,528<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 3,411 26,363 7,277 9,329 9,110<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) (0.1x) (0.1x) 1.4x 1.6x 1.6x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In Rs m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 4,557 10.7%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 49,370 116.0%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 53,927 126.7%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 53,927 126.7%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 42,554 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

236 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

38.9%<br />

61.1%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

27.7%<br />

72.3%<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(Rs m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 72,219 116,707 116,707<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 46,023 44,789 39,407<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

1.8x<br />

1.6x<br />

10.0x<br />

1.4x<br />

8.0x<br />

1.2x<br />

1.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

0.8x<br />

0.6x<br />

4.0x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.2x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

1.8x<br />

1.6x<br />

1.4x<br />

1.2x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.8x<br />

0.6x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.0x<br />

1.4x<br />

1.6x<br />

(0.2x) 2011A<br />

(0.1x)<br />

2012A<br />

(0.1x)<br />

2013F 2014F<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (Rs)<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

25.2%<br />

74.8%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

226<br />

176<br />

126<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

76<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Motherson Sumi Systems Ltd.<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (Rs m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 82,491 147,766 249,442 281,180 308,656<br />

Operating Expenses (74,823) (138,322) (232,010) (259,478) (285,118)<br />

EBITDA 7,668 9,444 17,431 21,702 23,539<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (2,465) (3,796) (6,334) (7,173) (7,680)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 5,203 5,648 11,097 14,529 15,859<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (496) (1,531) (2,448) (2,854) (2,459)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 1,508 709 266 900 900<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 6,314 4,116 8,916 12,575 14,300<br />

Taxes on Profit (1,885) (2,153) (3,489) (4,674) (5,133)<br />

Minority Interests (523) 631 (272) (791) (918)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 2 (7) 10 10 10<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 3,908 2,587 5,165 7,119 8,259<br />

Balance Sheet (Rs m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 17,295 45,077 47,356 48,110 48,633<br />

Long-term Investments 437 456 439 422 404<br />

Associates 28 482 492 501 512<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 350 1,859 1,961 2,054 2,150<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 23,298 56,172 57,263 57,592 57,913<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 24,543 59,833 64,767 67,205 72,060<br />

Total Current Assets 28,075 64,390 69,985 71,487 74,957<br />

Total Assets 51,373 120,562 127,248 129,079 132,870<br />

Shareholders' Equity 16,088 18,717 21,816 26,088 31,043<br />

Total Equity 18,364 23,744 27,115 32,178 38,051<br />

Long Term Debt 6,611 29,611 26,729 21,147 14,564<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 8,084 33,749 31,174 25,720 19,249<br />

Total Current Liabilities 24,925 63,069 68,959 71,181 75,569<br />

Total Liabilities 33,009 96,818 100,133 96,901 94,819<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 51,373 120,562 127,248 129,079 132,870<br />

Cash Flow Statement (Rs m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 6,314 4,116 8,916 12,575 14,300<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 2,465 3,796 6,334 7,173 7,680<br />

Tax Paid (1,555) (2,031) (2,957) (4,386) (4,909)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (3,085) (3,357) (1,891) (1,366) (1,043)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 4,105 5,888 12,866 16,867 18,503<br />

Capital Expenditure (7,874) (10,758) (7,500) (7,500) (8,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (227) (10,014) 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (8,054) (20,698) (7,405) (7,408) (7,931)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 5,407 16,603 (1,234) (5,382) (6,582)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (790) (1,237) (1,025) (2,066) (2,848)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 4,049 13,700 (4,801) (10,395) (11,958)<br />

Change in Cash 100 (1,110) 660 (936) (1,385)<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 9.3% 6.4% 7.0% 7.7% 7.6%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 6.3% 3.8% 4.4% 5.2% 5.1%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 4.7% 1.8% 2.1% 2.5% 2.7%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 28.2% 14.9% 25.5% 29.7% 28.9%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 11.8% 6.7% 9.0% 11.4% 12.2%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 15.6% 5.6% 9.7% 12.9% 14.2%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 68.7% 193.8% 165.2% 122.5% 86.3%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 49.4% 174.6% 145.9% 109.2% 78.7%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 321.6% 494.0% 611.4% 535.1% 458.5%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.7x 0.2x 1.7x 1.7x 1.8x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 8.6x 3.8x 4.4x 4.9x 6.3x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 14.2% 7.2% 7.6% 6.0% 3.8%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 112.6% 102.1% 101.5% 100.4% 99.2%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 71.0% 66.4% 66.7% 65.4% 62.6%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

237 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Mphasis Limited (MPHL IN)<br />

Sector: Information Technology Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Software & Services<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 7.6x<br />

Country: India<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 7.3%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 7.5x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

MphasiS Ltd (MphasiS) is among India’s top six listed IT service companies by revenue. The Company<br />

specializes in providing a suite of application development and maintenance services, infrastructure<br />

outsourcing services and business process outsourcing solutions (BPO) to clients around the world. Its<br />

application services cover consulting, application development, testing and application maintenance<br />

services. BPO services provide voice, transaction based services and knowledge based processes.<br />

Infrastructure outsourcing (ITO) services covers a range of infrastructure management services and<br />

service/ technical help desks.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Oct) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Rs m) 2,730 4,033 4,985 9,492 16,034<br />

Gross Debt (Rs m) 525 3,063 3,303 2,552 1,967<br />

Interest Expense (Rs m) (10) (31) (147) (135) (104)<br />

EBIT (Rs m) 11,011 8,294 8,766 10,812 11,453<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 1.6% 7.9% 7.3% 4.8% 3.2%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 201.6% 182.3% 200.6% 230.5% 267.6%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.0x 0.2x 0.3x 0.2x 0.2x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 352.3x 240.4x 7.6x 11.1x 15.2x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 1,150.0x 263.3x 59.5x 80.3x 110.2x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (Rs m) 50,365 50,980 53,574 57,825 62,211<br />

% Change (YoY) 18.1% 1.2% 5.1% 7.9% 7.6%<br />

EBITDA (Rs m) 12,649 9,845 10,491 12,587 13,326<br />

% of Sales 25.1% 19.3% 19.6% 21.8% 21.4%<br />

Net Income (Rs m) 10,908 8,218 7,922 9,302 9,921<br />

% of Sales 21.7% 16.1% 14.8% 16.1% 15.9%<br />

Free Cash Flow (Rs m) 7,508 6,132 4,192 5,692 7,159<br />

% of Sales 14.9% 12.0% 7.8% 9.8% 11.5%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 2,814 2,730 4,033 4,985 9,492<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 7,508 6,132 4,192 5,692 7,159<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 10,322 8,863 8,225 10,678 16,652<br />

Principal Repayments 24 8 948 750 586<br />

Interest Payments 10 31 147 135 104<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 33 39 1,096 885 690<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 309.9x 225.9x 7.5x 12.1x 24.1x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In Rs m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 4,033 110.7%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 30,764 844.5%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 34,797 955.2%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 34,797 955.2%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 3,643 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

238 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4.1%<br />

95.9%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(Rs m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 72,189 81,294 80,591<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 3,063 3,303 2,552<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

400.0x<br />

1400.0x<br />

350.0x<br />

1200.0x<br />

300.0x<br />

1000.0x<br />

250.0x<br />

200.0x<br />

150.0x<br />

800.0x<br />

600.0x<br />

100.0x<br />

400.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

200.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

350.0x<br />

309.9x<br />

300.0x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

250.0x<br />

200.0x<br />

150.0x<br />

100.0x<br />

3.9%<br />

96.1%<br />

50.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

7.5x 12.1x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Share Price (Rs)<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

3.1%<br />

96.9%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

502<br />

452<br />

402<br />

352<br />

302<br />

225.9x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

252<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Mphasis Limited<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (Rs m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 50,365 50,980 53,574 57,825 62,211<br />

Operating Expenses (37,716) (41,134) (43,083) (45,238) (48,885)<br />

EBITDA 12,649 9,845 10,491 12,587 13,326<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (1,638) (1,552) (1,724) (1,775) (1,873)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 11,011 8,294 8,766 10,812 11,453<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 8 (18) (104) (58) 43<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 1,070 1,738 1,617 1,609 1,637<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 12,099 10,046 10,279 12,363 13,132<br />

Taxes on Profit (1,192) (1,828) (2,356) (3,062) (3,211)<br />

Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 10,908 8,218 7,922 9,302 9,921<br />

Balance Sheet (Rs m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 1,939 2,391 2,418 2,439 2,367<br />

Long-term Investments 14,600 17,765 21,139 21,763 21,879<br />

Associates 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 4,370 9,151 9,265 9,359 9,432<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 21,752 30,384 34,087 34,888 35,078<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 20,478 21,578 24,107 26,797 28,314<br />

Total Current Assets 23,208 25,611 29,092 36,289 44,348<br />

Total Assets 44,960 55,994 63,179 71,177 79,426<br />

Shareholders' Equity 32,991 38,998 45,391 52,897 60,904<br />

Total Equity 32,991 38,998 45,391 52,897 60,904<br />

Long Term Debt 454 2,923 3,163 2,413 1,827<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 456 2,946 3,285 2,535 1,949<br />

Total Current Liabilities 11,513 14,051 14,503 15,745 16,573<br />

Total Liabilities 11,969 16,997 17,788 18,280 18,523<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 44,960 55,994 63,179 71,177 79,426<br />

Cash Flow Statement (Rs m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 12,099 10,046 10,279 12,363 13,132<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 1,638 1,552 1,724 1,775 1,873<br />

Tax Paid (1,813) (1,954) (2,354) (3,062) (3,211)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (3,047) (482) (2,126) (1,833) (955)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 8,427 8,139 6,192 7,692 9,159<br />

Capital Expenditure (919) (2,007) (2,000) (2,000) (2,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (7,523) (7,185) (3,330) (576) (63)<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (7,943) (8,300) (3,852) (890) (279)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 420 2,292 240 (750) (586)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 45 13 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (858) (980) (1,594) (1,535) (1,786)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (403) 1,293 (1,501) (2,420) (2,476)<br />

Change in Cash 81 1,133 839 4,382 6,404<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 25.1% 19.3% 19.6% 21.8% 21.4%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 21.9% 16.3% 16.4% 18.7% 18.4%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 21.7% 16.1% 14.8% 16.1% 15.9%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 38.6% 22.8% 18.8% 18.9% 17.4%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 28.4% 16.5% 14.8% 16.2% 15.4%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 67.7% 37.2% 31.4% 34.6% 35.0%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 1.6% 7.9% 7.3% 4.8% 3.2%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - 0.4% - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 137.5% 140.2% 141.2% 136.7% 132.3%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 352.3x 240.4x 7.6x 11.1x 15.2x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 1,150.0x 263.3x 59.5x 80.3x 110.2x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 15.5% 20.6% 25.8% 51.6% 87.6%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 201.6% 182.3% 200.6% 230.5% 267.6%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 201.6% 182.3% 200.6% 230.5% 267.6%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

239 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


MTN Group Limited (MTN SJ)<br />

Sector: Telecommunication Services Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Telecommunication Services Debt Service Cover (x) 3.3x<br />

Country: South Africa<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 22.8%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 5.0x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

MTN Group Limited is a multi-national telecommunications company offering voice and data<br />

communications products and services to individuals and businesses. Incorporated in Johannesburg,<br />

South Africa, in 1994, the company has GSM licences in 21 countries and internet service provider<br />

businesses in 13 countries, spanning three continents. As of 31 December 2011, the company had a<br />

total subscriber base of 164.5 million and enjoyed a subscriber market share of 34% and 50% in South<br />

Africa and Nigeria respectively, which are two of its major markets.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (ZAR m) 36,232 45,841 37,076 36,245 47,582<br />

Gross Debt (ZAR m) 35,288 33,423 23,554 14,764 15,479<br />

Interest Expense (ZAR m) (2,674) (3,341) (3,134) (2,107) (1,663)<br />

EBIT (ZAR m) 31,826 37,486 41,072 41,582 41,900<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 47.6% 36.1% 22.8% 13.2% 12.8%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 114.5% 117.5% 109.1% 116.5% 135.4%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.8x 0.6x 0.5x 0.3x 0.2x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 2.9x 2.8x 3.3x 4.2x 8.3x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 11.9x 11.2x 13.1x 19.7x 25.2x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (ZAR m) 114,684 121,884 133,867 141,830 148,838<br />

% Change (YoY) 2.4% 6.3% 9.8% 5.9% 4.9%<br />

EBITDA (ZAR m) 47,194 52,945 59,034 62,346 65,282<br />

% of Sales 41.2% 43.4% 44.1% 44.0% 43.9%<br />

Net Income (ZAR m) 14,300 20,754 22,484 23,294 23,874<br />

% of Sales 12.5% 17.0% 16.8% 16.4% 16.0%<br />

Free Cash Flow (ZAR m) 25,930 25,272 18,573 27,167 29,802<br />

% of Sales 22.6% 20.7% 13.9% 19.2% 20.0%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 24,747 36,232 45,841 37,076 36,245<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 25,930 25,272 18,573 27,167 29,802<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 50,677 61,504 64,414 64,243 66,047<br />

Principal Repayments 8,263 10,007 9,869 8,790 4,285<br />

Interest Payments 2,674 3,341 3,134 2,107 1,663<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 10,937 13,348 13,003 10,897 5,948<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 4.6x 4.6x 5.0x 5.9x 11.1x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In ZAR m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 45,841 107.5%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 144,214 338.0%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 190,055 445.5%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 32,399 75.9%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 222,454 521.4%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 42,661 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

240 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

11.0%<br />

89.0%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(ZAR m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 269,932 333,541 332,396<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 33,423 23,554 14,764<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

4.5x<br />

4.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

3.5x<br />

20.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.5x<br />

15.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

10.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

5.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

7.0x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

6.6%<br />

93.4%<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Share Price (ZAr)<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

4.3%<br />

95.7%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

6.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

20,842<br />

18,842<br />

16,842<br />

14,842<br />

12,842<br />

4.6x 4.6x<br />

5.0x<br />

5.9x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

10,842<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

MTN Group Limited<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (ZAR m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 114,684 121,884 133,867 141,830 148,838<br />

Operating Expenses (67,490) (68,939) (74,833) (79,483) (83,556)<br />

EBITDA 47,194 52,945 59,034 62,346 65,282<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (15,368) (15,459) (17,962) (20,765) (23,382)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 31,826 37,486 41,072 41,582 41,900<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (1,925) (1,454) (2,161) (1,279) (677)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) (2,169) 145 (800) (1,600) (1,600)<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 52 (38) (134) (127) (121)<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 28,095 37,640 37,977 38,576 39,502<br />

Taxes on Profit (11,268) (13,853) (12,133) (11,801) (12,061)<br />

Minority Interests (2,527) (3,033) (3,360) (3,481) (3,567)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 14,300 20,754 22,484 23,294 23,874<br />

Balance Sheet (ZAR m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 56,619 63,424 71,184 73,767 73,609<br />

Long-term Investments 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Associates 1,302 2,681 2,547 2,420 2,299<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 30,266 34,540 34,517 33,979 33,240<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 99,727 113,787 120,491 121,599 120,096<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 18,827 21,780 21,857 22,925 24,116<br />

Total Current Assets 55,059 67,621 58,934 59,170 71,698<br />

Total Assets 154,786 181,408 179,424 180,769 191,794<br />

Shareholders' Equity 71,855 88,897 97,584 104,515 111,492<br />

Total Equity 74,074 92,699 103,234 112,079 121,018<br />

Long Term Debt 24,857 23,554 14,764 10,479 10,194<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 33,995 33,392 24,602 20,317 20,032<br />

Total Current Liabilities 46,717 55,317 51,588 48,373 50,744<br />

Total Liabilities 80,712 88,709 76,190 68,690 70,776<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 154,786 181,408 179,424 180,769 191,794<br />

Cash Flow Statement (ZAR m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 28,095 37,640 37,977 38,576 39,502<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 15,368 15,459 17,962 20,765 23,382<br />

Tax Paid (8,028) (9,414) (14,529) (12,620) (12,228)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 666 (4,835) (332) 1,040 349<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 42,508 40,863 43,373 49,167 51,802<br />

Capital Expenditure (16,578) (15,591) (24,800) (22,000) (22,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 162 (7,170) 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (14,494) (18,542) (23,827) (21,171) (21,014)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (1,539) (5,159) (9,869) (8,790) 715<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 1,306 (924) 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (6,313) (11,722) (13,796) (16,363) (16,897)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (11,042) (27,096) (28,311) (28,827) (19,451)<br />

Change in Cash 16,972 (4,775) (8,765) (832) 11,338<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 41.2% 43.4% 44.1% 44.0% 43.9%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 27.8% 30.8% 30.7% 29.3% 28.2%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 12.5% 17.0% 16.8% 16.4% 16.0%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 20.2% 25.8% 24.1% 23.1% 22.1%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 21.2% 23.7% 23.3% 23.5% 23.0%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 22.4% 28.1% 30.3% 29.6% 29.9%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 47.6% 36.1% 22.8% 13.2% 12.8%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 219.2% 209.1% 193.5% 178.2% 172.5%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 2.9x 2.8x 3.3x 4.2x 8.3x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 11.9x 11.2x 13.1x 19.7x 25.2x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 76.9% 64.7% 52.4% 54.2% 74.0%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 117.9% 122.2% 114.2% 122.3% 141.3%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 114.5% 117.5% 109.1% 116.5% 135.4%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

241 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Naspers Limited (NPN SJ)<br />

Sector: Consumer Discretionary Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Media<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 2.2x<br />

Country: South Africa<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 31.0%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 3.8x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Naspers Limited (Naspers) is a South African based company, which has operations in the domain of<br />

international media and e-commerce platforms. The Company conducts its operations primarily through<br />

its subsidiaries and other affiliates in the pay television, print media (printing, publishing, distribution of<br />

newspapers, magazines & books), internet (e-commerce platforms, email services, messenger services,<br />

games, etc), and technology businesses across many countries.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Mar) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (ZAR m) 8,872 9,832 9,487 10,057 11,367<br />

Gross Debt (ZAR m) 14,791 16,855 16,943 17,007 17,168<br />

Interest Expense (ZAR m) (1,044) (1,140) (1,352) (1,358) (1,367)<br />

EBIT (ZAR m) 5,374 4,928 5,969 7,751 10,340<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 34.4% 34.0% 31.0% 28.3% 25.5%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 129.7% 129.9% 132.3% 132.2% 95.4%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 1.7x 2.2x 2.2x 1.7x 1.4x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.7x 2.4x 2.2x 2.6x 3.5x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 5.1x 4.3x 4.4x 5.7x 7.6x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (ZAR m) 33,085 39,487 47,517 54,572 61,974<br />

% Change (YoY) 18.2% 19.4% 20.3% 14.8% 13.6%<br />

EBITDA (ZAR m) 7,587 7,238 7,835 9,714 12,382<br />

% of Sales 22.9% 18.3% 16.5% 17.8% 20.0%<br />

Net Income (ZAR m) 5,260 2,894 6,002 7,432 9,629<br />

% of Sales 15.9% 7.3% 12.6% 13.6% 15.5%<br />

Free Cash Flow (ZAR m) 3,440 3,217 1,408 3,668 5,135<br />

% of Sales 10.4% 8.1% 3.0% 6.7% 8.3%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 6,788 8,872 9,832 9,487 10,057<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 3,440 3,217 1,408 3,668 5,135<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 10,228 12,089 11,240 13,155 15,192<br />

Principal Repayments 2,655 1,191 1,613 1,632 1,505<br />

Interest Payments 1,044 1,140 1,352 1,358 1,367<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 3,699 2,331 2,965 2,990 2,872<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 2.8x 5.2x 3.8x 4.4x 5.3x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In ZAR m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 9,832 46.3%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 26,626 125.5%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 36,458 171.8%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 9,933 46.8%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 46,391 218.6%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 21,223 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(ZAR m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 165,812 211,977 211,977<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 16,855 16,943 17,007<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

3.0x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

6.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EI324319 Corp Callable Company Guarantee US$ 700.0 700.0 100.00 28-Jul-2010 28-Jul-2017 6.38% 2<br />

242 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (ZAr)<br />

9.2%<br />

90.8%<br />

7.4% 7.4%<br />

92.6% 92.6%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

2.5x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

6.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

5.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

69,878<br />

59,878<br />

49,878<br />

39,878<br />

2.8x<br />

5.2x<br />

3.8x<br />

4.4x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

29,878<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Naspers Limited


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (ZAR m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 33,085 39,487 47,517 54,572 61,974<br />

Operating Expenses (25,498) (32,249) (39,683) (44,858) (49,592)<br />

EBITDA 7,587 7,238 7,835 9,714 12,382<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (2,213) (2,310) (1,866) (1,963) (2,042)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 5,374 4,928 5,969 7,751 10,340<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (988) (871) (937) (938) (907)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) (331) (106) 257 248 240<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 3,290 3,869 5,591 6,524 7,613<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 7,808 5,540 10,022 12,768 16,508<br />

Taxes on Profit (1,861) (2,059) (2,944) (4,004) (5,153)<br />

Minority Interests (687) (587) (1,076) (1,332) (1,726)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 5,260 2,894 6,002 7,432 9,629<br />

Balance Sheet (ZAR m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 6,933 7,978 8,743 9,408 9,988<br />

Long-term Investments 3,295 2,564 2,466 2,381 2,305<br />

Associates 20,767 28,095 32,785 38,258 44,644<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 21,158 21,690 20,615 19,594 18,625<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 53,610 62,037 66,419 71,534 77,517<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 7,373 9,409 11,121 11,799 12,680<br />

Total Current Assets 16,245 19,241 20,608 21,856 24,048<br />

Total Assets 69,855 81,278 87,027 93,390 101,565<br />

Shareholders' Equity 40,662 47,515 52,356 57,518 64,336<br />

Total Equity 42,942 49,576 54,633 60,061 67,224<br />

Long Term Debt 12,715 15,204 15,148 15,216 8,012<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 14,950 17,845 17,763 17,808 10,583<br />

Total Current Liabilities 11,963 13,857 14,631 15,521 23,759<br />

Total Liabilities 26,913 31,702 32,394 33,329 34,341<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 69,855 81,278 87,027 93,390 101,565<br />

Cash Flow Statement (ZAR m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 7,808 5,540 10,022 12,768 16,508<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 2,213 2,310 1,866 1,963 2,042<br />

Tax Paid (1,983) (1,923) (2,590) (3,735) (4,884)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (463) 97 (1,457) (53) (278)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 5,270 5,394 3,583 5,843 7,310<br />

Capital Expenditure (1,830) (2,177) (2,175) (2,175) (2,175)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (4,637) (1,347) 377 421 468<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (5,778) (2,360) (1,450) (1,425) (1,395)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 4,171 509 (613) (632) (505)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (1,549) (2,369) (2,021) (3,336) (4,192)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 2,513 (1,745) (2,634) (3,968) (4,697)<br />

Change in Cash 2,005 1,289 (500) 450 1,218<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 22.9% 18.3% 16.5% 17.8% 20.0%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 16.2% 12.5% 12.6% 14.2% 16.7%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 15.9% 7.3% 12.6% 13.6% 15.5%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 14.2% 6.6% 12.0% 13.5% 15.8%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 9.1% 7.1% 7.6% 9.1% 11.1%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 15.4% 11.1% 14.5% 18.2% 24.7%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 34.4% 34.0% 31.0% 28.3% 25.5%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 14.1% 14.2% 13.7% 11.6% 8.6%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 171.3% 171.4% 168.5% 164.2% 160.0%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.7x 2.4x 2.2x 2.6x 3.5x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 5.1x 4.3x 4.4x 5.7x 7.6x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 73.0% 70.9% 64.8% 64.7% 47.8%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 135.8% 138.9% 140.9% 140.8% 101.2%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 129.7% 129.9% 132.3% 132.2% 95.4%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

243 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Neptune Orient Lines Ltd. (NOL SP)<br />

Sector: Industrials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Transportation<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.5x<br />

Country: Singapore<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 139.1%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) (1.2x)<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Incorporated in 1968, Neptune Orient Lines (NOL) is a Singapore based company which is primarily<br />

engaged in global container transportation and logistics services. It has two principal business units: APL<br />

and APL Logistics. APL provides container shipping services and intermodal operations. It offers more<br />

than 80 weekly services and over 500 weekly calls at 180 ports worldwide. APL Logistics provides<br />

international, integrated supply chain services in more than 50 countries, including both origin and<br />

destination services such as freight consolidation, warehousing and distribution management.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (US$ '000) 977,212 227,562 449,273 253,483 335,716<br />

Gross Debt (US$ '000) 1,359,200 2,353,841 3,431,746 4,056,930 4,232,508<br />

Interest Expense (US$ '000) (33,163) (31,578) (72,320) (93,608) (103,618)<br />

EBIT (US$ '000) 568,395 (380,683) (82,973) 269,249 409,250<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 41.6% 88.8% 139.1% 156.5% 150.8%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 133.6% 67.7% 64.9% 59.3% 66.5%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 1.3x - 11.9x 5.8x 4.9x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 5.8x - 0.5x 0.5x 0.6x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 17.1x - - 2.9x 3.9x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (US$ '000) 9,422,092 9,210,704 9,577,132 10,477,831 11,478,111<br />

% Change (YoY) 44.6% (2.2%) 4.0% 9.4% 9.5%<br />

EBITDA (US$ '000) 853,624 (85,335) 242,432 646,033 851,886<br />

% of Sales 9.1% (0.9%) 2.5% 6.2% 7.4%<br />

Net Income (US$ '000) 460,936 (478,188) (185,449) 142,477 263,792<br />

% of Sales 4.9% (5.2%) (1.9%) 1.4% 2.3%<br />

Free Cash Flow (US$ '000) 248,950 (1,610,266) (798,247) (726,344) 44,490<br />

% of Sales 2.6% (17.5%) (8.3%) (6.9%) 0.4%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 333,048 977,212 227,562 449,273 253,483<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 248,950 (1,610,266) (798,247) (726,344) 44,490<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 581,998 (633,054) (570,685) (277,071) 297,973<br />

Principal Repayments 99,779 20,395 422,095 974,816 1,024,422<br />

Interest Payments 33,163 31,578 72,320 93,608 103,618<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 132,942 51,973 494,415 1,068,424 1,128,040<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 4.4x (12.2x) (1.2x) (0.3x) 0.3x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In US$ '000)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 227,562 4.7%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation (619,128) (12.9%)<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation (391,566) (8.2%)<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 1,049,800 21.9%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 658,234 13.7%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 4,803,365 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(US$ '000) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 2,241,399 2,420,907 2,485,761<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 2,353,841 3,431,746 4,056,930<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

7.0x<br />

18.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

16.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

14.0x<br />

12.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

6.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

4.4x<br />

(2.0x) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

(4.0x)<br />

(6.0x)<br />

(8.0x)<br />

(10.0x)<br />

(12.0x)<br />

(1.2x) (0.3x)<br />

(14.0x)<br />

(12.2x)<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EJ137350 Corp At Maturity Unsecured S$ 400.0 400.0 100.00 26-Apr-2012 26-Apr-2017 4.25% 2<br />

EI706230 Corp Callable Unsecured S$ 300.0 300.0 100.00 22-Jun-2011 22-Jun-2021 4.40% 2<br />

EI388215 Corp Callable Unsecured S$ 280.0 280.0 100.00 09-Sep-2010 09-Sep-2020 4.65% 2<br />

244 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (S$)<br />

51.2%<br />

48.8%<br />

58.6% 62.0%<br />

41.4% 38.0%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

1.67<br />

1.47<br />

1.27<br />

1.07<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

0.87<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Neptune Orient Lines Ltd.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (US$ '000) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 9,422,092 9,210,704 9,577,132 10,477,831 11,478,111<br />

Operating Expenses (8,568,468) (9,296,039) (9,334,699) (9,831,798) (10,626,225)<br />

EBITDA 853,624 (85,335) 242,432 646,033 851,886<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (285,229) (295,348) (325,406) (376,784) (442,636)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 568,395 (380,683) (82,973) 269,249 409,250<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (30,361) (25,881) (68,259) (89,392) (100,083)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) (16,856) (12,941) 2,528 4,322 5,992<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 5,475 9,454 4,998 7,517 7,914<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 529,822 (428,935) (143,705) 191,695 323,073<br />

Taxes on Profit (65,799) (44,997) (37,220) (46,310) (56,077)<br />

Minority Interests (3,087) (4,256) (4,523) (2,908) (3,204)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 460,936 (478,188) (185,449) 142,477 263,792<br />

Balance Sheet (US$ '000)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 2,905,174 3,102,474 3,795,564 5,280,787 6,278,249<br />

Long-term Investments 27,415 26,816 26,816 26,816 26,816<br />

Associates 77,109 127,183 131,460 137,889 144,665<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 154,287 155,771 154,222 152,897 151,765<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 4,048,604 5,196,141 5,814,303 6,682,637 6,984,821<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 1,425,241 1,538,145 1,609,554 1,765,307 1,843,365<br />

Total Current Assets 2,402,453 1,765,707 2,058,827 2,018,790 2,179,081<br />

Total Assets 6,451,057 6,961,848 7,873,130 8,701,428 9,163,902<br />

Shareholders' Equity 3,222,404 2,600,980 2,415,531 2,540,199 2,753,207<br />

Total Equity 3,265,811 2,652,184 2,467,640 2,592,889 2,806,538<br />

Long Term Debt 1,338,177 1,931,746 2,456,930 3,032,508 3,350,029<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 1,569,166 2,183,949 2,732,981 3,323,196 3,656,971<br />

Total Current Liabilities 1,616,080 2,125,715 2,672,509 2,785,343 2,700,392<br />

Total Liabilities 3,185,246 4,309,664 5,405,490 6,108,539 6,357,364<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 6,451,057 6,961,848 7,873,130 8,701,428 9,163,902<br />

Cash Flow Statement (US$ '000)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 529,822 (428,935) (143,705) 191,695 323,073<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 285,229 295,348 325,406 376,784 442,636<br />

Tax Paid (31,811) (26,397) (91,108) (64,230) (59,338)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (130,072) (35,571) (63,789) (82,487) (26,557)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 721,844 (139,557) 154,253 526,156 796,990<br />

Capital Expenditure (472,894) (1,470,709) (952,500) (1,252,500) (752,500)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 21,349 (27,025) 13,209 13,811 14,456<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (445,413) (1,488,029) (934,508) (1,233,386) (733,371)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 406,891 1,010,351 1,077,905 625,184 175,578<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 1,390 844 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (2,556) (97,318) (3,619) (20,136) (53,347)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 367,733 877,936 1,001,967 511,440 18,613<br />

Change in Cash 644,164 (749,650) 221,711 (195,790) 82,232<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 9.1% (0.9%) 2.5% 6.2% 7.4%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 6.0% (4.1%) (0.9%) 2.6% 3.6%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 4.9% (5.2%) (1.9%) 1.4% 2.3%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 15.3% (16.4%) (7.4%) 5.7% 10.0%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 9.7% (5.6%) (1.1%) 3.3% 4.6%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 13.5% (8.8%) (1.6%) 3.4% 5.1%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 41.6% 88.8% 139.1% 156.5% 150.8%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 11.7% 80.2% 120.9% 146.7% 138.8%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 195.9% 230.3% 295.7% 334.5% 337.5%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 5.8x - 0.5x 0.5x 0.6x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 17.1x - - 2.9x 3.9x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 60.5% 10.7% 16.8% 9.1% 12.4%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 148.7% 83.1% 77.0% 72.5% 80.7%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 133.6% 67.7% 64.9% 59.3% 66.5%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

245 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Newcrest Mining Limited (NCM AU)<br />

Sector: Materials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Materials<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.2x<br />

Country: Australia<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 15.7%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.5x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Newcrest Mining Limited is engaged in the exploration, development, mining and sale of gold, copper<br />

concentrate and silver. It is Australia’s largest gold producer and among the world’s ten largest gold<br />

mining companies by production, reserves and market capitalisation. It operates seven gold mines in<br />

Australia, Indonesia and Papua New Guinea and is headquaretered in Melbourne, Australia.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 30 Jun) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (A$ m) 185 242 692 1,046 1,523<br />

Gross Debt (A$ m) 800 2,408 2,541 2,221 1,837<br />

Interest Expense (A$ m) (45) (43) (132) (162) (133)<br />

EBIT (A$ m) 1,553 1,589 1,844 2,272 2,556<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 5.8% 16.0% 15.7% 12.7% 9.7%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 104.2% 35.9% 103.7% 105.2% 112.5%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.3x 0.7x 1.0x 0.8x 0.6x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 6.8x 1.3x 1.2x 3.1x 3.2x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 34.5x 37.0x 13.9x 14.0x 19.2x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (A$ m) 4,102 4,416 4,831 5,523 6,047<br />

% Change (YoY) 46.4% 7.7% 9.4% 14.3% 9.5%<br />

EBITDA (A$ m) 2,068 2,150 2,527 2,968 3,267<br />

% of Sales 50.4% 48.7% 52.3% 53.7% 54.0%<br />

Net Income (A$ m) 899 1,054 1,150 1,419 1,630<br />

% of Sales 21.9% 23.9% 23.8% 25.7% 27.0%<br />

Free Cash Flow (A$ m) (284) (874) 583 1,015 1,267<br />

% of Sales (6.9%) (19.8%) 12.1% 18.4% 21.0%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 643 185 242 692 1,046<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (284) (943) 583 1,015 1,267<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 359 (758) 825 1,708 2,313<br />

Principal Repayments 192 1,209 1,467 571 633<br />

Interest Payments 45 43 132 162 133<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 237 1,252 1,599 733 767<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.5x (0.6x) 0.5x 2.3x 3.0x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In A$ m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 242 5.1%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 5,902 125.2%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 6,144 130.3%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 6,144 130.3%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 4,715 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

12.2% 12.3%<br />

87.8% 87.7%<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(A$ m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 17,287 18,089 18,057<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 2,408 2,541 2,221<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

8.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

7.0x<br />

35.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

2.5x<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EI871157 Corp Callable Company Guarantee US$ 750.0 750.0 99.88 15-Nov-2011 15-Nov-2021 4.45% 2<br />

EJ378433 Corp Callable Company Guarantee US$ 750.0 750.0 99.88 01-Oct-2012 01-Oct-2022 4.20% 2<br />

EI871181 Corp At Maturity Company Guarantee US$ 250.0 250.0 99.40 07-Nov-2011 07-Nov-2022 5.75% 2<br />

246 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (A$)<br />

11.0%<br />

89.0%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

2.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.0x<br />

(0.5x)<br />

(1.0x)<br />

43<br />

38<br />

33<br />

28<br />

23<br />

1.5x<br />

(0.6x)<br />

0.5x<br />

2.3x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

18<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Newcrest Mining Limited


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (A$ m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 4,102 4,416 4,831 5,523 6,047<br />

Operating Expenses (2,034) (2,266) (2,304) (2,556) (2,780)<br />

EBITDA 2,068 2,150 2,527 2,968 3,267<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (515) (561) (683) (695) (711)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 1,553 1,589 1,844 2,272 2,556<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (36) (41) (123) (145) (108)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) (18) (13) 32 32 32<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 1,291 1,514 1,653 2,060 2,380<br />

Taxes on Profit (334) (402) (449) (573) (672)<br />

Minority Interests (58) (58) (55) (68) (78)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 899 1,054 1,150 1,419 1,630<br />

Balance Sheet (A$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 3,310 4,364 4,650 5,000 5,238<br />

Long-term Investments 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Associates 0 395 395 395 395<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 3,682 3,852 3,844 3,836 3,829<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 15,740 19,045 19,594 20,439 21,261<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 1,357 1,222 1,468 1,569 1,658<br />

Total Current Assets 1,542 1,464 2,160 2,615 3,181<br />

Total Assets 17,282 20,509 21,754 23,053 24,443<br />

Shareholders' Equity 13,776 14,975 15,977 17,181 18,541<br />

Total Equity 13,875 15,094 16,150 17,422 18,860<br />

Long Term Debt 684 1,208 2,300 1,979 1,596<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 2,590 3,423 4,319 4,012 3,640<br />

Total Current Liabilities 817 1,992 1,285 1,619 1,942<br />

Total Liabilities 3,407 5,415 5,604 5,631 5,582<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 17,282 20,509 21,754 23,053 24,443<br />

Cash Flow Statement (A$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 1,291 1,514 1,653 2,060 2,380<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 515 561 683 695 711<br />

Tax Paid (107) (219) (162) (286) (401)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (41) (49) (107) 190 185<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 1,729 1,795 1,983 2,587 2,835<br />

Capital Expenditure (2,013) (2,669) (1,400) (1,572) (1,568)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (2,294) (2,757) (1,408) (1,581) (1,578)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 474 695 133 (321) (383)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net (60) (44) (44) (44) (44)<br />

Dividends Paid (231) (405) (218) (288) (353)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 183 246 (124) (653) (780)<br />

Change in Cash (382) (716) 450 354 478<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 50.4% 48.7% 52.3% 53.7% 54.0%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 37.9% 36.0% 38.2% 41.1% 42.3%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 21.9% 23.9% 23.8% 25.7% 27.0%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 9.6% 7.3% 7.4% 8.6% 9.1%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 13.2% 8.4% 8.8% 10.2% 10.9%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 10.6% 6.6% 6.9% 8.2% 8.9%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 5.8% 16.0% 15.7% 12.7% 9.7%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 4.4% 14.4% 11.4% 6.7% 1.7%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 126.1% 131.4% 136.5% 135.1% 133.0%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 6.8x 1.3x 1.2x 3.1x 3.2x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 34.5x 37.0x 13.9x 14.0x 19.2x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 22.6% 12.1% 53.9% 64.6% 78.5%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 188.7% 73.5% 168.1% 161.5% 163.8%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 104.2% 35.9% 103.7% 105.2% 112.5%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

247 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Noble Group Ltd. (NOBL SP)<br />

Sector: Industrials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Capital Goods<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.7x<br />

Country: Singapore<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 144.9%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.0x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Noble Group is a leading, publicly listed, diversified natural resources and supply chain company with<br />

worldwide activities in mining, processing, logistics, shipping and marketing of metals and minerals,<br />

energy and agricultural products. The company transports these products to end consumers, normally<br />

industrial or commercial clients, principally utilizing third party owned vessels, through its extensive<br />

chartering operations. Through the network of over 140 offices and plants in 38 countries the company<br />

seeks to provide a value-added services in the commodities supply chain by integrating the origination,<br />

processing, distribution and delivery of agricultural, industrial and energy commodities on a global basis.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (US$ '000) 1,605,589 1,548,600 1,205,072 1,385,390 1,228,481<br />

Gross Debt (US$ '000) 6,124,279 6,124,825 7,106,982 7,361,669 7,338,860<br />

Interest Expense (US$ '000) (336,496) (423,861) (463,113) (470,231) (477,767)<br />

EBIT (US$ '000) 920,491 761,956 900,747 1,143,718 1,274,910<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 138.2% 115.8% 144.9% 134.9% 120.6%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 104.3% 141.8% 115.6% 114.2% 112.7%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 4.6x 6.2x 5.8x 5.1x 4.6x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.3x 0.2x 1.7x 0.9x 1.0x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 2.7x 1.8x 1.9x 2.4x 2.7x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (US$ '000) 56,696,058 80,732,072 92,994,844 105,924,808 116,437,247<br />

% Change (YoY) 81.8% 42.4% 15.2% 13.9% 9.9%<br />

EBITDA (US$ '000) 1,056,200 992,294 1,142,724 1,427,430 1,592,152<br />

% of Sales 1.9% 1.2% 1.2% 1.3% 1.4%<br />

Net Income (US$ '000) 605,560 431,330 505,342 674,628 785,684<br />

% of Sales 1.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.7%<br />

Free Cash Flow (US$ '000) (2,094,666) 1,530,912 (844,515) 465,578 455,265<br />

% of Sales (3.7%) 1.9% (0.9%) 0.4% 0.4%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 937,287 1,605,589 1,548,600 1,205,072 1,385,390<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (2,094,666) 1,530,912 (844,515) 465,578 455,265<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) (1,157,379) 3,136,501 704,085 1,670,650 1,840,655<br />

Principal Repayments 2,263,267 3,932,231 217,843 945,313 1,022,809<br />

Interest Payments 336,496 423,861 463,113 470,231 477,767<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 2,599,763 4,356,092 680,956 1,415,544 1,500,577<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) (0.4x) 0.7x 1.0x 1.2x 1.2x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In US$ '000)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 1,548,600 21.6%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 1,684,769 23.5%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 3,233,369 45.1%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 4,525,431 63.2%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 7,758,800 108.3%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 7,164,532 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

52.4% 53.7% 53.6%<br />

47.6% 46.3% 46.4%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(US$ '000) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 5,567,831 6,131,240 6,373,771<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 6,124,825 7,106,982 7,361,669<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

1.8x<br />

3.0x<br />

1.6x<br />

1.4x<br />

2.5x<br />

1.2x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.8x<br />

1.5x<br />

0.6x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

1.4x<br />

1.2x<br />

1.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

1.2x<br />

0.8x<br />

0.6x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.7x<br />

(0.2x)<br />

(0.4x)<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

(0.6x) (0.4x)<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EI015900 Corp Unsecured Callable US$ 1,250.0 1,208.5 99.11 29-Oct-2009 29-Jan-2020 6.75% 2<br />

EI341675 Corp Unsecured Callable US$ 500.0 500.0 100.00 05-Aug-2010 05-Aug-2015 4.88% 2<br />

EH381364 Corp Unsecured Callable US$ 500.0 500.0 100.00 30-May-2008 30-May-2013 8.50% 2<br />

248 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (S$)<br />

1.88<br />

1.68<br />

1.48<br />

1.28<br />

1.08<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

0.88<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Noble Group Ltd.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (US$ '000) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 56,696,058 80,732,072 92,994,844 105,924,80 116,437,247<br />

Operating Expenses (55,639,858) (79,739,778) (91,852,120 (104,497,3 (114,845,095<br />

EBITDA 1,056,200 992,294 1,142,724 1,427,430 1,592,152<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (135,709) (230,338) (241,977) (283,712) (317,242)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 920,491 761,956 900,747 1,143,718 1,274,910<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (306,164) (359,955) (396,151) (413,700) (420,797)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 13,987 15,110 89 89 89<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits (6,459) (14,623) 291 27,051 27,598<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 722,917 503,361 537,312 757,158 881,800<br />

Taxes on Profit (115,868) (63,645) (26,866) (75,716) (88,180)<br />

Minority Interests (1,489) (8,386) (5,104) (6,814) (7,936)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 605,560 431,330 505,342 674,628 785,684<br />

Balance Sheet (US$ '000)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 2,560,346 2,830,875 3,341,868 3,551,460 3,738,021<br />

Long-term Investments 633,487 301,131 301,131 301,131 301,131<br />

Associates 648,421 174,078 1,417,208 1,444,260 1,471,858<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 359,523 832,997 870,074 903,281 932,305<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 4,968,921 4,611,817 6,280,905 6,564,252 6,814,617<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 10,763,039 13,669,882 12,669,982 13,963,743 14,686,680<br />

Total Current Assets 12,368,628 15,218,482 13,875,053 15,349,133 15,915,161<br />

Total Assets 17,337,549 19,830,299 20,155,958 21,913,385 22,729,778<br />

Shareholders' Equity 3,972,977 4,587,064 4,891,471 5,439,763 6,056,790<br />

Total Equity 4,431,189 5,290,155 4,903,859 5,458,965 6,083,928<br />

Long Term Debt 4,285,188 5,469,507 5,724,194 5,901,385 5,678,575<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 4,852,126 5,821,394 6,076,081 6,253,272 6,030,462<br />

Total Current Liabilities 8,054,234 8,718,750 9,176,018 10,201,148 10,615,387<br />

Total Liabilities 12,906,360 14,540,144 15,252,099 16,454,420 16,645,850<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 17,337,549 19,830,299 20,155,958 21,913,385 22,729,778<br />

Cash Flow Statement (US$ '000)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 722,917 503,361 537,312 757,158 881,800<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 135,709 230,338 241,977 283,712 317,242<br />

Tax Paid (80,708) (154,789) (15,769) (60,729) (81,317)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (2,358,481) 1,425,122 (1,414,730) (369,044) (524,334)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations (1,397,566) 2,239,991 (194,515) 1,015,578 1,005,265<br />

Capital Expenditure (697,100) (709,079) (650,000) (550,000) (550,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (388,707) (702,972) 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (1,214,853) (1,404,521) (590,320) (493,380) (492,941)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 2,516,950 (437,936) 982,157 254,687 (22,809)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 461,446 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (129,543) (152,762) (88,197) (126,336) (168,657)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 2,826,569 (322,974) 441,307 (341,880) (669,233)<br />

Change in Cash 214,150 512,496 (343,528) 180,318 (156,909)<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 1.9% 1.2% 1.2% 1.3% 1.4%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 1.6% 0.9% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 1.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.7%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 17.5% 10.1% 10.7% 13.1% 13.7%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 7.0% 4.5% 4.8% 5.7% 6.0%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 11.3% 7.4% 8.9% 10.6% 11.0%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 138.2% 115.8% 144.9% 134.9% 120.6%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 102.0% 86.5% 120.4% 109.5% 100.4%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 404.0% 434.2% 421.9% 407.2% 388.3%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.3x 0.2x 1.7x 0.9x 1.0x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 2.7x 1.8x 1.9x 2.4x 2.7x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 19.9% 17.8% 13.1% 13.6% 11.6%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 153.6% 174.5% 151.2% 150.5% 149.9%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 104.3% 141.8% 115.6% 114.2% 112.7%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

249 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Novatek Microelectronics Corp., Ltd. (3034 TT)<br />

Sector: Information Technology Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Semiconductors & Semiconductor Debt Service Cover (x) 102.4x<br />

Country: Taiwan<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 32.9%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 404.9x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Novatek Microelectronics Corporation is a fabless IC design house, involved in research, development,<br />

design, manufacturing and sales of driver ICs. The manufacturing operations are outsourced to third<br />

party pure play foundries. The players in the display driver industry usually emerge as a subsidiary of an<br />

existing panel maker and then get independent by expanding their scale of operations and diversifying<br />

their product portfolio.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (NT$ m) 16,247 16,369 17,926 16,710 19,734<br />

Gross Debt (NT$ m) 7,897 7,856 7,856 7,856 7,856<br />

Interest Expense (NT$ m) (52) (63) (51) (55) (55)<br />

EBIT (NT$ m) 4,995 3,977 4,912 5,738 6,256<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 35.7% 35.3% 32.9% 30.6% 28.5%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 178.3% 193.1% 195.3% 201.7% 203.7%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 1.3x 1.8x 1.5x 1.3x 1.2x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 104.5x 18.6x 102.4x 110.5x 120.3x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 96.3x 63.2x 96.2x 104.3x 113.8x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (NT$ m) 36,316 35,070 36,890 41,387 45,450<br />

% Change (YoY) 34.4% (3.4%) 5.2% 12.2% 9.8%<br />

EBITDA (NT$ m) 5,421 4,369 5,231 6,077 6,617<br />

% of Sales 14.9% 12.5% 14.2% 14.7% 14.6%<br />

Net Income (NT$ m) 4,584 3,695 4,422 5,084 5,642<br />

% of Sales 12.6% 10.5% 12.0% 12.3% 12.4%<br />

Free Cash Flow (NT$ m) 2,786 3,530 4,310 2,078 6,812<br />

% of Sales 7.7% 10.1% 11.7% 5.0% 15.0%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 14,701 16,247 16,369 17,926 16,710<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2,786 3,530 4,310 2,078 6,812<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 17,487 19,777 20,679 20,004 23,521<br />

Principal Repayments 0 150 0 0 0<br />

Interest Payments 52 63 51 55 55<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 52 213 51 55 55<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 337.1x 92.8x 404.9x 363.7x 427.7x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In NT$ m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 16,369 6,039.2%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 24,403 9,003.4%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 40,772 15,042.6%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 40,772 15,042.6%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 271 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

250 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

14.7%<br />

85.3%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(NT$ m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 45,685 70,724 72,831<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 7,856 7,856 7,856<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

120.0x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

10.0% 9.7%<br />

90.0% 90.3%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

100.0x<br />

80.0x<br />

60.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

450.0x<br />

404.9x<br />

400.0x<br />

350.0x<br />

300.0x<br />

250.0x<br />

200.0x<br />

150.0x<br />

337.1x<br />

363.7x<br />

100.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

92.8x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (NT$)<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

120.0x<br />

100.0x<br />

80.0x<br />

60.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

143<br />

123<br />

103<br />

83<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

63<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Novatek Microelectronics Corp., Ltd.<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (NT$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 36,316 35,070 36,890 41,387 45,450<br />

Operating Expenses (30,895) (30,701) (31,659) (35,310) (38,833)<br />

EBITDA 5,421 4,369 5,231 6,077 6,617<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (426) (392) (319) (339) (361)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 4,995 3,977 4,912 5,738 6,256<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 25 64 100 92 100<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 55 187 56 0 110<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 5,075 4,228 5,068 5,830 6,466<br />

Taxes on Profit (491) (533) (647) (746) (824)<br />

Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 4,584 3,695 4,422 5,084 5,642<br />

Balance Sheet (NT$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 1,573 1,579 1,649 1,730 1,822<br />

Long-term Investments 1,761 1,512 1,478 1,478 1,478<br />

Associates 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 2,915 2,776 2,774 2,759 2,732<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 6,838 6,237 6,270 6,337 6,402<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 13,976 13,892 14,463 18,190 17,664<br />

Total Current Assets 30,224 30,261 32,389 34,899 37,398<br />

Total Assets 37,062 36,498 38,659 41,236 43,800<br />

Shareholders' Equity 22,101 22,229 23,897 25,687 27,542<br />

Total Equity 22,101 22,229 23,897 25,687 27,542<br />

Long Term Debt 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 61 61 61 61 61<br />

Total Current Liabilities 14,901 14,209 14,701 15,488 16,198<br />

Total Liabilities 14,961 14,269 14,761 15,549 16,258<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 37,062 36,498 38,659 41,236 43,800<br />

Cash Flow Statement (NT$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 5,075 4,228 5,068 5,830 6,466<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 426 392 319 339 361<br />

Tax Paid (275) (372) (630) (703) (779)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (2,994) (1,225) (169) (3,181) 1,221<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 3,142 3,790 4,696 2,484 7,238<br />

Capital Expenditure (356) (260) (386) (406) (426)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 8 (88) 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (334) (254) (386) (406) (426)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 1,607 (43) 0 0 0<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (2,978) (3,481) (2,753) (3,294) (3,787)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (1,255) (3,422) (2,753) (3,294) (3,787)<br />

Change in Cash 1,553 114 1,557 (1,216) 3,024<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 14.9% 12.5% 14.2% 14.7% 14.6%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 13.8% 11.3% 13.3% 13.9% 13.8%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 12.6% 10.5% 12.0% 12.3% 12.4%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 21.5% 16.7% 19.2% 20.5% 21.2%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 14.5% 11.2% 13.5% 14.7% 15.1%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 40.5% 28.6% 34.7% 36.0% 36.8%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 35.7% 35.3% 32.9% 30.6% 28.5%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 164.2% 165.9% 162.9% 161.1% 159.8%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 104.5x 18.6x 102.4x 110.5x 120.3x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 96.3x 63.2x 96.2x 104.3x 113.8x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 109.0% 115.2% 121.9% 107.9% 121.8%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 202.8% 213.0% 220.3% 225.3% 230.9%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 178.3% 193.1% 195.3% 201.7% 203.7%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

251 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


NTPC Ltd. (NTPC IN)<br />

Sector: Utilities Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Utilities<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.4x<br />

Country: India<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 88.7%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.4x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

NTPC Limited (NTPC) is India’s largest power generation company with an installed capacity of 37,014<br />

MW (including 4,364 MW from JVs) which represents 28.1% of India’s total installed thermal capacity<br />

and about 18.5% of the country’s total installed generation as on 31st March 2012.<br />

Apart from its principal business i.e., generation and sale of electricity to bulk customers, mainly<br />

electricity utilities owned by State Governments, the company also derives revenue from consultancy<br />

services coal mining power equipment manufacturing oil & gas exploration and power trading &<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Mar) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Rs m) 196,718 197,141 198,385 194,452 195,023<br />

Gross Debt (Rs m) 501,692 598,036 720,770 818,917 885,066<br />

Interest Expense (Rs m) (38,066) (48,205) (52,847) (61,579) (68,464)<br />

EBIT (Rs m) 100,549 120,179 130,508 143,427 159,817<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 72.8% 79.9% 88.7% 92.6% 91.6%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 216.5% 185.7% 170.3% 158.2% 151.7%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 3.7x 3.6x 4.0x 4.2x 4.2x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.4x 1.6x 1.4x 1.1x 1.1x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 2.7x 2.5x 2.5x 2.3x 2.3x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (Rs m) 576,072 658,933 717,485 779,204 861,592<br />

% Change (YoY) 19.1% 14.4% 8.9% 8.6% 10.6%<br />

EBITDA (Rs m) 127,746 151,250 165,600 182,922 204,879<br />

% of Sales 22.2% 23.0% 23.1% 23.5% 23.8%<br />

Net Income (Rs m) 93,482 98,147 101,817 111,107 121,869<br />

% of Sales 16.2% 14.9% 14.2% 14.3% 14.1%<br />

Free Cash Flow (Rs m) (16,683) (8,705) (50,080) (24,064) 19,417<br />

% of Sales (2.9%) (1.3%) (7.0%) (3.1%) 2.3%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 179,965 196,718 197,141 198,385 194,452<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (16,683) (8,705) (50,080) (24,064) 19,417<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 163,282 188,013 147,062 174,321 213,868<br />

Principal Repayments 43,084 36,518 48,766 73,353 90,352<br />

Interest Payments 37,420 47,218 52,847 61,579 68,464<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 80,505 83,736 101,613 134,932 158,816<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 2.0x 2.2x 1.4x 1.3x 1.3x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In Rs m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 197,141 25.3%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation (41,016) (5.3%)<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 156,125 20.0%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 156,125 20.0%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 780,483 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

30.8% 35.7% 38.7%<br />

69.2% 64.3% 61.3%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(Rs m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 1,341,949 1,298,661 1,298,661<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 598,036 720,770 818,917<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

1.8x<br />

2.8x<br />

1.6x<br />

2.7x<br />

1.4x<br />

1.2x<br />

2.6x<br />

1.0x<br />

2.5x<br />

0.8x<br />

2.4x<br />

0.6x<br />

0.4x<br />

2.3x<br />

0.2x<br />

2.2x<br />

0.0x<br />

2.1x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

2.5x<br />

2.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EH678449 Corp At Maturity Senior Secured Rs 10,000.0 10,000.0 100.00 21-Nov-2008 21-Nov-2018 11.00% 1<br />

EH817260 Corp At Maturity Senior Secured Rs 7,000.0 7,000.0 100.00 05-May-2009 05-May-2019 7.89% 1<br />

EH706112 Corp At Maturity Senior Secured Rs 5,500.0 5,500.0 100.00 04-Feb-2009 04-Feb-2019 8.65% 1<br />

252 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (Rs)<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

220<br />

200<br />

180<br />

160<br />

140<br />

2.2x<br />

1.4x<br />

1.3x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

120<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

NTPC Ltd.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (Rs m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 576,072 658,933 717,485 779,204 861,592<br />

Operating Expenses (448,325) (507,682) (551,885) (596,282) (656,714)<br />

EBITDA 127,746 151,250 165,600 182,922 204,879<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (27,197) (31,071) (35,092) (39,494) (45,062)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 100,549 120,179 130,508 143,427 159,817<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 6,701 8,387 4,539 3,882 2,018<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 16,589 2,672 833 778 693<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 123,923 131,373 135,880 148,087 162,528<br />

Taxes on Profit (30,441) (33,226) (34,063) (36,980) (40,659)<br />

Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 93,482 98,147 101,817 111,107 121,869<br />

Balance Sheet (Rs m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 446,544 509,156 569,302 662,005 773,407<br />

Long-term Investments 65,453 49,229 49,229 49,229 49,229<br />

Associates 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 2,095 2,193 2,008 1,823 1,639<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 979,264 1,124,566 1,303,968 1,465,915 1,606,401<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 190,139 230,913 237,846 257,657 266,088<br />

Total Current Assets 386,857 428,054 436,231 452,108 461,111<br />

Total Assets 1,366,121 1,552,620 1,740,198 1,918,024 2,067,512<br />

Shareholders' Equity 683,846 742,758 806,394 878,613 960,265<br />

Total Equity 688,696 748,714 812,349 884,569 966,221<br />

Long Term Debt 470,596 548,519 646,667 727,816 778,464<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 516,822 595,885 695,072 776,220 826,868<br />

Total Current Liabilities 160,603 208,021 232,777 257,235 274,423<br />

Total Liabilities 677,425 803,906 927,849 1,033,455 1,101,291<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 1,366,121 1,552,620 1,740,198 1,918,024 2,067,512<br />

Cash Flow Statement (Rs m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 123,923 131,373 135,880 148,087 162,528<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 27,197 31,071 35,092 39,494 45,062<br />

Tax Paid (30,342) (19,018) (33,025) (36,980) (40,659)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (25,896) (29,868) (2,593) (11,301) (6,768)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 120,675 150,620 164,414 177,378 204,964<br />

Capital Expenditure (137,358) (159,325) (214,494) (201,442) (185,547)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 34,199 18,039 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (93,717) (132,473) (194,756) (179,092) (162,048)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 62,624 71,716 122,734 98,147 66,148<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (36,722) (41,232) (38,301) (38,788) (40,029)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (8,890) (15,828) 31,586 (2,220) (42,345)<br />

Change in Cash 18,068 2,318 1,244 (3,934) 571<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 22.2% 23.0% 23.1% 23.5% 23.8%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 17.5% 18.2% 18.2% 18.4% 18.5%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 16.2% 14.9% 14.2% 14.3% 14.1%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 14.3% 13.8% 13.1% 13.2% 13.3%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 9.4% 10.0% 9.4% 9.2% 9.2%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 8.3% 8.5% 7.9% 7.6% 7.6%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 72.8% 79.9% 88.7% 92.6% 91.6%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 46.9% 55.7% 66.3% 72.4% 73.1%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 197.3% 204.6% 212.6% 217.1% 216.7%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.4x 1.6x 1.4x 1.1x 1.1x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 2.7x 2.5x 2.5x 2.3x 2.3x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 111.2% 87.0% 78.3% 69.3% 65.2%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 240.9% 205.8% 187.4% 175.8% 168.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 216.5% 185.7% 170.3% 158.2% 151.7%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

253 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC IN)<br />

Sector: Energy Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Energy<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 13.2x<br />

Country: India<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 10.4%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 12.0x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Ltd., (ONGC) is the largest Exploration & Production company in India<br />

and Asia (as per Platt’s 2010 ranking) and accounts for more than 75% of India’s total crude production<br />

and 80% of total natural gas production. The Company is involved in the exploration & production of<br />

hydrocarbons in 26 sedimentary basins of India and it owns and operates more than 11,000 kilometres<br />

of pipelines in India.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Mar) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Rs m) 210,238 287,691 299,568 285,553 402,620<br />

Gross Debt (Rs m) 67,042 159,842 162,326 170,020 155,615<br />

Interest Expense (Rs m) (4,200) (5,727) (8,860) (9,140) (8,955)<br />

EBIT (Rs m) 311,683 372,669 376,943 393,888 372,398<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 5.7% 11.5% 10.4% 9.9% 8.3%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 98.3% 93.1% 85.4% 82.3% 97.7%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.2x 0.2x 0.3x 0.3x 0.3x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 18.3x 30.7x 13.2x 17.3x 8.1x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 74.2x 65.1x 42.5x 43.1x 41.6x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (Rs m) 1,201,339 1,473,057 1,648,574 1,679,396 1,676,733<br />

% Change (YoY) 18.1% 22.6% 11.9% 1.9% (0.2%)<br />

EBITDA (Rs m) 423,974 482,360 498,467 522,974 507,888<br />

% of Sales 35.3% 32.7% 30.2% 31.1% 30.3%<br />

Net Income (Rs m) 224,559 281,436 277,612 288,778 277,605<br />

% of Sales 18.7% 19.1% 16.8% 17.2% 16.6%<br />

Free Cash Flow (Rs m) 140,533 74,556 60,849 59,527 216,344<br />

% of Sales 11.7% 5.1% 3.7% 3.5% 12.9%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 147,221 200,174 278,716 290,593 276,578<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 140,533 74,556 60,849 59,527 216,344<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 287,754 274,730 339,565 350,120 492,922<br />

Principal Repayments 12,615 6,623 19,516 14,306 36,406<br />

Interest Payments 4,200 5,727 8,860 9,140 8,955<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 16,814 12,350 28,376 23,445 45,361<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 17.1x 22.2x 12.0x 14.9x 10.9x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In Rs m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 278,716 181.9%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 755,503 493.1%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 1,034,219 675.0%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 1,034,219 675.0%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 153,218 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

6.5% 6.5% 6.7%<br />

93.5% 93.5% 93.3%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(Rs m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 2,295,866 2,349,338 2,349,338<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 159,842 162,326 170,020<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

35.0x<br />

80.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

70.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

60.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

25.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EI092384 Corp At Maturity Senior Unsecured Rs 19,700.0 19,700.0 100.00 23-Dec-2009 23-Dec-2014 8.40% 1<br />

EI097846 Corp At Maturity Senior Unsecured Rs 3,700.0 3,700.0 100.00 06-Jan-2010 06-Jan-2020 8.54% 1<br />

254 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (Rs)<br />

20.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

357<br />

307<br />

257<br />

17.1x<br />

22.2x<br />

12.0x<br />

14.9x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

207<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (Rs m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 1,201,339 1,473,057 1,648,574 1,679,396 1,676,733<br />

Operating Expenses (777,364) (990,698) (1,150,107) (1,156,423) (1,168,845)<br />

EBITDA 423,974 482,360 498,467 522,974 507,888<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (112,292) (109,691) (121,524) (129,086) (135,490)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 311,683 372,669 376,943 393,888 372,398<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 16,641 29,991 26,095 25,711 30,533<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 16,161 13,609 11,771 11,894 11,867<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 343,133 428,035 414,808 431,493 414,797<br />

Taxes on Profit (114,883) (143,746) (134,398) (139,804) (134,394)<br />

Minority Interests (3,720) (2,842) (2,804) (2,917) (2,804)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 30 (11) 6 6 6<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 224,559 281,436 277,612 288,778 277,605<br />

Balance Sheet (Rs m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 838,821 914,084 1,059,589 1,183,379 1,256,632<br />

Long-term Investments 108,130 113,123 113,123 113,123 113,123<br />

Associates 2,052 2,042 2,048 2,054 2,060<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 91,663 79,340 73,361 67,240 61,484<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 1,486,689 1,715,994 1,933,522 2,109,430 2,153,951<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 233,762 312,812 308,659 312,000 310,220<br />

Total Current Assets 444,000 600,503 608,227 597,553 712,840<br />

Total Assets 1,930,689 2,316,497 2,541,750 2,706,982 2,866,791<br />

Shareholders' Equity 1,153,272 1,364,391 1,530,959 1,695,562 1,845,469<br />

Total Equity 1,173,164 1,386,476 1,555,847 1,723,368 1,876,079<br />

Long Term Debt 39,771 52,086 47,949 43,411 18,774<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 393,120 426,404 422,267 417,730 393,093<br />

Total Current Liabilities 364,406 503,617 563,635 565,884 597,620<br />

Total Liabilities 757,525 930,021 985,902 983,614 990,712<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 1,930,689 2,316,497 2,541,750 2,706,982 2,866,791<br />

Cash Flow Statement (Rs m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 343,133 428,035 414,808 431,493 414,797<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 112,292 109,691 121,524 129,086 135,490<br />

Tax Paid (105,166) (118,814) (134,398) (139,804) (134,394)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 67,551 (70,506) 27,645 (20,409) 21,928<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 490,846 467,541 483,339 459,527 496,344<br />

Capital Expenditure (350,314) (392,984) (422,490) (400,000) (280,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 20,564 1,791 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (322,093) (390,016) (378,985) (354,504) (229,984)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 400 91,523 2,484 7,694 (14,406)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (117,894) (85,208) (86,101) (117,593) (125,932)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (116,697) 1,015 (92,477) (119,038) (149,293)<br />

Change in Cash 52,057 78,540 11,877 (14,016) 117,068<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 35.3% 32.7% 30.2% 31.1% 30.3%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 25.9% 25.3% 22.9% 23.5% 22.2%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 18.7% 19.1% 16.8% 17.2% 16.6%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 20.7% 22.4% 19.2% 17.9% 15.7%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 18.5% 19.2% 17.0% 16.3% 14.8%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 17.5% 17.7% 15.9% 15.0% 13.4%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 5.7% 11.5% 10.4% 9.9% 8.3%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 166.3% 168.7% 167.8% 162.7% 157.4%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 18.3x 30.7x 13.2x 17.3x 8.1x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 74.2x 65.1x 42.5x 43.1x 41.6x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 57.1% 55.4% 51.6% 48.9% 65.9%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 121.8% 119.2% 107.9% 105.6% 119.3%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 98.3% 93.1% 85.4% 82.3% 97.7%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

255 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Oil Search Ltd. (OSH AU)<br />

Sector: Energy Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Energy<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 2.8x<br />

Country: Australia<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 90.9%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) (4.2x)<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Oil Search Limited was incorporated in Papua New Guinea (PNG) in 1929 and is primarily engaged in<br />

the exploration, development and production of oil & natural gas. It is the largest oil and gas producer in<br />

PNG and operates all of PNG’s currently producing oil and gas fields. The company also has exploratory<br />

assets in Iraq, Tunisia and Yemen. In 2011, the Company produced 6.7 mmboe (million barrels of oil<br />

equivalent) of oil & gas and had a 2P reserves base of 553 mmboe, out of which approximately 81% was<br />

natural gas. Oil Search with its partner Exxon Mobil is currently developing a two-train LNG liquefaction<br />

and storage facility based near Port Moresby (PNG), with a capacity of 6.6 million tonnes per annum. Oil<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (US$ '000) 1,263,589 1,047,463 330,135 176,197 208,039<br />

Gross Debt (US$ '000) 929,720 1,747,567 2,847,567 3,947,567 4,647,567<br />

Interest Expense (US$ '000) (3,945) (3,368) (140,029) (208,204) (262,204)<br />

EBIT (US$ '000) 290,650 473,648 337,289 261,957 735,226<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 33.2% 57.9% 90.9% 122.7% 131.1%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 382.0% 233.8% 114.7% 80.2% 79.6%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 1.4x 2.6x 5.8x 10.8x 4.8x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 86.3x 155.9x 2.8x 1.5x 3.4x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 73.7x 140.6x 2.4x 1.3x 2.8x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (US$ '000) 583,560 732,869 712,525 593,666 1,296,293<br />

% Change (YoY) 13.9% 25.6% (2.8%) (16.7%) 118.4%<br />

EBITDA (US$ '000) 340,524 524,955 396,034 313,705 903,137<br />

% of Sales 58.4% 71.6% 55.6% 52.8% 69.7%<br />

Net Income (US$ '000) 185,602 202,483 164,201 125,261 393,141<br />

% of Sales 31.8% 27.6% 23.0% 21.1% 30.3%<br />

Free Cash Flow (US$ '000) (761,244) (934,182) (1,634,271) (1,005,492) (343,385)<br />

% of Sales (130.4%) (127.5%) (229.4%) (169.4%) (26.5%)<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 1,288,077 1,263,589 1,047,463 330,135 176,197<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (761,244) (934,182) (1,634,271) (1,005,492) (343,385)<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 526,833 329,407 (586,808) (675,357) (167,188)<br />

Principal Repayments 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Interest Payments 3,945 3,368 140,029 208,204 262,204<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 3,945 3,368 140,029 208,204 262,204<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 133.5x 97.8x (4.2x) (3.2x) (0.6x)<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In US$ '000)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 1,047,463 46.2%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation (770,057) (33.9%)<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 277,406 12.2%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 24,650 1.1%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 302,056 13.3%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 2,269,023 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

256 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

17.1%<br />

82.9%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

22.8%<br />

77.2%<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(US$ '000) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 8,454,696 9,656,276 9,807,801<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 1,747,567 2,847,567 3,947,567<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

180.0x<br />

160.0x<br />

160.0x<br />

140.0x<br />

140.0x<br />

120.0x<br />

120.0x<br />

100.0x<br />

80.0x<br />

60.0x<br />

100.0x<br />

80.0x<br />

60.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

160.0x<br />

140.0x<br />

120.0x<br />

133.5x<br />

100.0x<br />

80.0x<br />

60.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

97.8x<br />

(20.0x) 2010A 2011A 2012F<br />

(4.2x)<br />

2013F<br />

(3.2x)<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (A$)<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

28.7%<br />

71.3%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

9.30<br />

8.30<br />

7.30<br />

6.30<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

5.30<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Oil Search Ltd.<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (US$ '000) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 583,560 732,869 712,525 593,666 1,296,293<br />

Operating Expenses (243,036) (207,914) (316,490) (279,961) (393,156)<br />

EBITDA 340,524 524,955 396,034 313,705 903,137<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (49,874) (51,307) (58,746) (51,747) (167,912)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 290,650 473,648 337,289 261,957 735,226<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 2,911 3,585 (903) (1,062) (135,553)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) (3,737) (4,243) (7,984) (10,373) (13,392)<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 277,174 439,901 328,402 250,523 586,281<br />

Taxes on Profit (91,572) (237,418) (164,201) (125,261) (193,141)<br />

Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 185,602 202,483 164,201 125,261 393,141<br />

Balance Sheet (US$ '000)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 601,513 715,774 870,808 871,432 3,234,781<br />

Long-term Investments 29 29 29 29 29<br />

Associates 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 2,872,605 4,406,856 6,275,463 7,617,107 8,646,412<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 233,873 247,715 245,504 234,228 562,702<br />

Total Current Assets 1,497,462 1,295,178 575,639 410,424 770,742<br />

Total Assets 4,370,067 5,702,034 6,851,102 8,027,532 9,417,154<br />

Shareholders' Equity 2,798,467 3,017,232 3,133,584 3,216,831 3,546,058<br />

Total Equity 2,798,467 3,017,232 3,133,584 3,216,831 3,546,058<br />

Long Term Debt 929,720 1,747,567 2,847,567 3,947,567 4,647,567<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 1,195,358 2,156,392 3,263,752 4,371,352 5,080,730<br />

Total Current Liabilities 376,242 528,410 453,766 439,349 790,366<br />

Total Liabilities 1,571,600 2,684,802 3,717,518 4,810,701 5,871,096<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 4,370,067 5,702,034 6,851,102 8,027,532 9,417,154<br />

Cash Flow Statement (US$ '000)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 277,174 439,901 328,402 250,523 586,281<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 49,874 51,307 58,746 51,747 167,912<br />

Tax Paid (124,447) (178,494) (243,998) (137,135) (187,540)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 31,051 14,031 7,364 8,733 16,942<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 343,764 382,608 405,058 500,728 962,772<br />

Capital Expenditure (1,105,008) (1,316,790) (2,039,330) (1,506,220) (1,306,157)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (29) 0 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (1,098,181) (1,309,837) (2,034,508) (1,504,448) (1,304,812)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 729,812 708,129 1,100,000 1,100,000 700,000<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (33,797) (36,723) (47,849) (42,014) (63,914)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 729,929 711,103 912,122 849,782 373,882<br />

Change in Cash (24,488) (216,126) (717,328) (153,938) 31,843<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 58.4% 71.6% 55.6% 52.8% 69.7%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 49.8% 64.6% 47.3% 44.1% 56.7%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 31.8% 27.6% 23.0% 21.1% 30.3%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 6.9% 7.0% 5.3% 3.9% 11.6%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 8.0% 9.5% 5.5% 3.5% 8.4%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 9.1% 6.4% 3.3% 1.9% 6.2%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 33.2% 57.9% 90.9% 122.7% 131.1%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - 23.2% 80.3% 117.2% 125.2%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 138.1% 173.2% 204.1% 234.3% 257.9%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 86.3x 155.9x 2.8x 1.5x 3.4x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 73.7x 140.6x 2.4x 1.3x 2.8x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 335.8% 198.2% 72.8% 40.1% 26.3%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 398.0% 245.1% 126.9% 93.4% 97.5%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 382.0% 233.8% 114.7% 80.2% 79.6%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

257 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Parkson Retail Group Limited (3368 HK)<br />

Sector: Consumer Discretionary Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Retailing<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 10.4x<br />

Country: Hong Kong<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 41.8%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 39.2x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Parkson Retail Group Limited is engaged in the operation and management of a network of department<br />

stores in The People’s Republic of China. Parkson is one of the few foreign department store chains to<br />

establish its presence in PRC. It focuses on four main categories of merchandise namely, Fashion &<br />

Apparel, Cosmetics & Accessories, Household & Electrical, and Groceries & Perishables, targeting the<br />

young and contemporary market. It is headquartered in Beijing and is listed on the Hong Kong Stock<br />

Exchange (3368 HK).<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (RMB m) 6,563 5,103 5,645 5,878 6,881<br />

Gross Debt (RMB m) 4,236 2,467 2,467 1,852 1,852<br />

Interest Expense (RMB m) (341) (280) (154) (142) (123)<br />

EBIT (RMB m) 1,423 1,509 1,319 1,376 1,554<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 92.3% 46.2% 41.8% 28.4% 25.4%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 117.5% 150.5% 157.3% 146.8% 152.1%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 2.4x 1.9x 1.5x 1.3x 1.0x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 4.7x 0.9x 10.4x 0.8x 15.8x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 4.2x 5.4x 8.5x 9.7x 12.7x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (RMB m) 3,819 4,364 4,647 5,167 5,931<br />

% Change (YoY) 10.3% 14.3% 6.5% 11.2% 14.8%<br />

EBITDA (RMB m) 1,603 1,745 1,612 1,714 1,939<br />

% of Sales 42.0% 40.0% 34.7% 33.2% 32.7%<br />

Net Income (RMB m) 992 1,123 1,049 1,119 1,286<br />

% of Sales 26.0% 25.7% 22.6% 21.7% 21.7%<br />

Free Cash Flow (RMB m) 1,244 1,206 949 1,218 1,376<br />

% of Sales 32.6% 27.6% 20.4% 23.6% 23.2%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 3,856 6,563 5,103 5,645 5,878<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 1,244 1,206 949 1,218 1,376<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 5,100 7,769 6,053 6,863 7,254<br />

Principal Repayments 1 1,302 0 1,615 0<br />

Interest Payments 341 280 154 142 123<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 342 1,582 154 1,757 123<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 14.9x 4.9x 39.2x 3.9x 59.2x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In RMB m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 5,103 224.3%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 7,331 322.2%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 12,434 546.5%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 12,434 546.5%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 2,275 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

258 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

10.2%<br />

89.8%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(RMB m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 21,684 14,121 15,245<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 2,467 2,467 1,852<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

12.0x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

14.9%<br />

85.1%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

45.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

35.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

39.2x<br />

20.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

14.9x<br />

10.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

4.9x<br />

3.9x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

10.8%<br />

89.2%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

10.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

12.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

12.55<br />

10.55<br />

8.55<br />

6.55<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

4.55<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Parkson Retail Group Limited<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (RMB m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 3,819 4,364 4,647 5,167 5,931<br />

Operating Expenses (2,752) (3,193) (3,642) (4,115) (4,744)<br />

EBITDA 1,603 1,745 1,612 1,714 1,939<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (180) (236) (293) (338) (385)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 1,423 1,509 1,319 1,376 1,554<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (140) 9 103 142 192<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 1,328 1,519 1,422 1,519 1,747<br />

Taxes on Profit (304) (366) (346) (370) (427)<br />

Minority Interests (32) (30) (28) (30) (34)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 992 1,123 1,049 1,119 1,286<br />

Balance Sheet (RMB m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 2,438 2,600 2,709 2,843 2,975<br />

Long-term Investments 51 75 74 72 71<br />

Associates 2 2 2 2 2<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 2,172 2,172 2,172 2,172 2,172<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 5,323 5,942 6,144 6,350 6,533<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 706 1,017 1,071 1,122 1,267<br />

Total Current Assets 7,269 6,120 6,716 7,001 8,148<br />

Total Assets 12,591 12,063 12,860 13,351 14,681<br />

Shareholders' Equity 4,512 5,268 5,824 6,459 7,212<br />

Total Equity 4,589 5,341 5,897 6,531 7,284<br />

Long Term Debt 1,615 2,467 2,467 1,852 1,852<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 2,015 2,840 2,880 2,285 2,305<br />

Total Current Liabilities 5,987 3,882 4,083 4,535 5,092<br />

Total Liabilities 8,002 6,722 6,963 6,820 7,397<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 12,591 12,063 12,860 13,351 14,681<br />

Cash Flow Statement (RMB m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 1,328 1,519 1,422 1,519 1,747<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 180 236 293 338 385<br />

Tax Paid (301) (363) (321) (342) (389)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 360 215 158 396 401<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 1,679 1,601 1,449 1,768 1,951<br />

Capital Expenditure (435) (395) (500) (550) (575)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (1,748) (525) 5 6 8<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (1,970) (1,062) (232) (264) (259)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 755 (352) 0 (615) 0<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 22 1 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (478) (512) (521) (514) (567)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (145) (1,143) (675) (1,271) (690)<br />

Change in Cash (436) (605) 542 233 1,002<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 42.0% 40.0% 34.7% 33.2% 32.7%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 37.3% 34.6% 28.4% 26.6% 26.2%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 26.0% 25.7% 22.6% 21.7% 21.7%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 23.5% 23.0% 18.9% 18.2% 18.8%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 13.8% 14.6% 12.7% 12.7% 13.3%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 41.9% 40.8% 33.0% 35.2% 42.7%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 92.3% 46.2% 41.8% 28.4% 25.4%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 41.7% 14.6% 4.0% - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 280.7% 252.1% 224.7% 213.4% 205.1%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 4.7x 0.9x 10.4x 0.8x 15.8x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 4.2x 5.4x 8.5x 9.7x 12.7x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 38.8% 43.5% 54.7% 54.4% 68.1%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 121.4% 157.7% 164.5% 154.4% 160.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 117.5% 150.5% 157.3% 146.8% 152.1%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

259 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


PCCW Ltd. (8 HK)<br />

Sector: Telecommunication Services Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Telecommunication Services Debt Service Cover (x) 6.4x<br />

Country: Hong Kong<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 266.6%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 8.0x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

PCCW Limited is a Hong Kong-based company which holds interests in telecommunications, media, IT<br />

solutions, property development and investment, and other businesses. The Company holds a majority<br />

interest in the HKT Trust and HKT Limited, Hong Kong’s premier telecommunications service provider,<br />

which provides a wide range of services including local telephony, local data and broadband,<br />

international telecommunications, mobile, and other telecommunications businesses such as customer<br />

premises equipment sale, outsourcing, consulting, and contact centers.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (HK$ m) 8,101 5,365 7,422 3,327 1,721<br />

Gross Debt (HK$ m) 34,841 23,510 23,470 16,347 12,031<br />

Interest Expense (HK$ m) (1,358) (1,528) (1,175) (995) (709)<br />

EBIT (HK$ m) 3,553 3,638 3,891 4,089 4,021<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) - 310.2% 266.6% 161.0% 103.7%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 100.3% 128.2% 146.0% 108.3% 93.2%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 4.7x 3.8x 3.0x 2.5x 1.8x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.3x 0.3x 6.4x 0.7x 1.1x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 2.6x 2.4x 3.3x 4.1x 5.7x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (HK$ m) 22,962 24,638 24,795 25,136 25,338<br />

% Change (YoY) (8.4%) 7.3% 0.6% 1.4% 0.8%<br />

EBITDA (HK$ m) 7,353 7,587 7,776 7,956 7,982<br />

% of Sales 32.0% 30.8% 31.4% 31.7% 31.5%<br />

Net Income (HK$ m) 1,926 1,607 1,610 1,680 1,783<br />

% of Sales 8.4% 6.5% 6.5% 6.7% 7.0%<br />

Free Cash Flow (HK$ m) 2,745 2,839 4,386 5,129 4,614<br />

% of Sales 12.0% 11.5% 17.7% 20.4% 18.2%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 8,049 8,101 5,365 7,422 3,327<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2,745 2,839 4,386 5,129 4,614<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 10,794 10,940 9,751 12,551 7,941<br />

Principal Repayments 16,112 17,975 40 8,123 5,316<br />

Interest Payments 1,358 1,528 1,175 995 709<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 17,470 19,503 1,215 9,118 6,025<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.6x 0.6x 8.0x 1.4x 1.3x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In HK$ m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 5,365 18.7%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 23,734 82.9%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 29,099 101.6%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 11,955 41.8%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 41,054 143.4%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 28,631 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

260 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

54.8%<br />

45.2%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

48.7%<br />

51.3%<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(HK$ m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 19,417 24,726 24,653<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 23,510 23,470 16,347<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

7.0x<br />

4.5x<br />

6.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

3.5x<br />

3.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

2.5x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

9.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

7.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.4x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.6x 0.6x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

39.9%<br />

60.1%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

3.95<br />

3.45<br />

2.95<br />

2.45<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

1.95<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

PCCW Ltd.<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (HK$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 22,962 24,638 24,795 25,136 25,338<br />

Operating Expenses (15,609) (17,051) (17,019) (17,180) (17,356)<br />

EBITDA 7,353 7,587 7,776 7,956 7,982<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (3,800) (3,949) (3,885) (3,866) (3,960)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 3,553 3,638 3,891 4,089 4,021<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (1,560) (1,494) (1,080) (911) (653)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 52 134 0 0 0<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits (82) 32 35 36 37<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 3,080 2,318 2,847 3,214 3,405<br />

Taxes on Profit (756) (542) (370) (630) (662)<br />

Minority Interests (398) (169) (867) (904) (960)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 1,926 1,607 1,610 1,680 1,783<br />

Balance Sheet (HK$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 21,026 21,269 20,828 20,316 19,722<br />

Long-term Investments 283 577 577 577 577<br />

Associates 710 917 907 897 887<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 6,110 6,512 5,519 4,641 3,763<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 29,387 30,909 29,517 28,142 26,672<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 10,645 9,576 10,181 9,934 10,402<br />

Total Current Assets 18,746 14,941 17,604 13,261 12,123<br />

Total Assets 48,133 45,850 47,120 41,403 38,795<br />

Shareholders' Equity (3,263) 6,104 6,549 7,084 7,666<br />

Total Equity (608) 7,580 8,805 10,154 11,600<br />

Long Term Debt 27,041 23,470 23,470 16,347 12,031<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 30,997 27,523 27,323 20,200 15,884<br />

Total Current Liabilities 17,744 10,747 10,992 11,049 11,310<br />

Total Liabilities 48,741 38,270 38,315 31,249 27,195<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 48,133 45,850 47,120 41,403 38,795<br />

Cash Flow Statement (HK$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 3,080 2,318 2,847 3,214 3,405<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 3,800 3,949 3,885 3,866 3,960<br />

Tax Paid (145) (301) (407) (474) (530)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (1,439) (213) (483) 147 (337)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 5,899 6,701 6,886 7,629 7,114<br />

Capital Expenditure (3,154) (3,862) (2,500) (2,500) (2,500)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (28) (266) 23 23 24<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (3,062) (3,996) (2,362) (2,371) (2,398)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 40 (11,724) (40) (7,123) (4,316)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 1,279 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (1,271) (1,127) (1,165) (1,144) (1,201)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (2,858) (5,472) (2,467) (9,353) (6,322)<br />

Change in Cash (21) (2,767) 2,057 (4,095) (1,606)<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 32.0% 30.8% 31.4% 31.7% 31.5%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 15.5% 14.8% 15.7% 16.3% 15.9%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 8.4% 6.5% 6.5% 6.7% 7.0%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) - 113.1% 25.5% 24.6% 24.2%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 7.7% 7.9% 8.5% 9.4% 10.1%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 9.7% 9.7% 12.2% 12.5% 13.0%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) - 310.2% 266.6% 161.0% 103.7%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - 239.4% 182.3% 128.2% 88.9%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) - 3,308.1% 734.8% 649.3% 543.7%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.3x 0.3x 6.4x 0.7x 1.1x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 2.6x 2.4x 3.3x 4.1x 5.7x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 45.7% 49.9% 67.5% 30.1% 15.2%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 105.6% 139.0% 160.1% 120.0% 107.2%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 100.3% 128.2% 146.0% 108.3% 93.2%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

261 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Pegatron Corporation (4938 TT)<br />

Sector: Information Technology Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Technology Hardware & Equipment Debt Service Cover (x) 2.2x<br />

Country: Taiwan<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 55.0%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 3.4x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Pegatron was established in 2007 as a design, manufacturing and services (DMS) company after a spun<br />

off from Asustek Computer Inc. With headquarters in Taiwan, Pegatron Corporation is a leading DMS<br />

Company that focuses on providing leading OEMs in the global technology industry with quality and<br />

effective end-to-end services from initial innovative designing & product development to systematic<br />

manufacturing & after sales service. Pegatron’s has a diversified product portfolio which includes<br />

notebook, desktop, tablet PCs, motherboards, e-readers, smartphones, LCD TV, Set-top box, cable<br />

modem, networking and other communication products.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (NT$ m) 51,011 57,434 54,370 72,501 76,128<br />

Gross Debt (NT$ m) 26,276 52,445 70,896 63,632 56,604<br />

Interest Expense (NT$ m) 0 0 0 0 0<br />

EBIT (NT$ m) 8,694 913 12,414 17,707 24,346<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 22.5% 44.4% 55.0% 44.9% 35.7%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 123.8% 99.1% 97.3% 110.9% 107.4%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 1.2x 3.3x 2.4x 2.2x 1.6x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 2.0x 8.2x 2.2x 1.9x 2.4x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 38.7x 1.5x 11.1x 15.6x 24.5x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (NT$ m) 530,531 599,943 876,594 1,017,844 1,163,430<br />

% Change (YoY) (1.4%) 13.1% 46.1% 16.1% 14.3%<br />

EBITDA (NT$ m) 18,794 11,854 25,610 31,190 37,947<br />

% of Sales 3.5% 2.0% 2.9% 3.1% 3.3%<br />

Net Income (NT$ m) 6,211 111 6,228 9,308 12,443<br />

% of Sales 1.2% 0.0% 0.7% 0.9% 1.1%<br />

Free Cash Flow (NT$ m) 11,631 (11,218) (24,199) 25,724 12,784<br />

% of Sales 2.2% (1.9%) (2.8%) 2.5% 1.1%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 40,401 51,011 57,434 54,370 72,501<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 11,631 (11,218) (24,199) 25,724 12,784<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 52,032 39,792 33,236 80,094 85,285<br />

Principal Repayments 7,323 587 8,609 12,295 12,059<br />

Interest Payments 225 603 1,116 1,138 994<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 7,548 1,190 9,724 13,432 13,053<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 6.9x 33.4x 3.4x 6.0x 6.5x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In NT$ m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 57,434 94.3%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 60,673 99.6%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 118,108 193.9%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 118,108 193.9%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 60,897 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

41.4% 45.6% 41.9%<br />

58.6% 54.4% 58.1%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(NT$ m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 74,317 84,656 88,376<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 52,445 70,896 63,632<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

9.0x<br />

45.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

7.0x<br />

35.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

40.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EJ005735 Corp Convertible/Puttable Senior Unsecured US$ 300.0 300.0 100.00 06-Feb-2012 06-Feb-2017 N.A. N.A.<br />

262 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (NT$)<br />

35.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

58<br />

53<br />

48<br />

43<br />

38<br />

33<br />

6.9x<br />

33.4x<br />

3.4x<br />

6.0x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

28<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Pegatron Corporation


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (NT$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 530,531 599,943 876,594 1,017,844 1,163,430<br />

Operating Expenses (511,737) (588,089) (850,984) (986,654) (1,125,483)<br />

EBITDA 18,794 11,854 25,610 31,190 37,947<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (10,100) (10,941) (13,195) (13,483) (13,601)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 8,694 913 12,414 17,707 24,346<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (42) (59) (267) (177) 132<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 4,111 3,847 1,916 2,977 2,969<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 207 98 76 74 72<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 12,970 4,727 13,942 20,581 27,519<br />

Taxes on Profit (2,364) (1,422) (2,660) (3,719) (4,978)<br />

Minority Interests (4,395) (3,194) (5,054) (7,554) (10,098)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 6,211 111 6,228 9,308 12,443<br />

Balance Sheet (NT$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 50,571 59,906 58,225 61,202 55,890<br />

Long-term Investments 2,861 1,502 1,626 1,561 1,536<br />

Associates 2,471 2,463 2,391 2,321 2,252<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 3,443 5,923 5,637 4,446 4,221<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 66,066 83,680 82,590 77,057 71,325<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 98,928 158,459 215,865 204,355 254,750<br />

Total Current Assets 149,938 215,894 270,235 276,856 330,878<br />

Total Assets 216,004 299,574 352,825 353,913 402,204<br />

Shareholders' Equity 90,841 91,584 97,753 103,781 111,321<br />

Total Equity 116,617 118,197 128,909 141,729 158,347<br />

Long Term Debt 11,517 28,758 36,767 32,698 28,629<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 12,282 29,886 38,051 33,982 29,913<br />

Total Current Liabilities 87,104 151,491 185,865 178,202 213,943<br />

Total Liabilities 99,386 181,377 223,916 212,184 243,856<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 216,004 299,574 352,825 353,913 402,204<br />

Cash Flow Statement (NT$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 12,970 4,727 13,942 20,581 27,519<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 10,100 10,941 13,195 13,483 13,601<br />

Tax Paid (1,400) (2,194) (2,450) (3,719) (4,978)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 3,170 (11,994) (33,585) 7,043 (11,696)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 23,739 6,269 (9,049) 37,374 24,434<br />

Capital Expenditure (12,109) (17,488) (15,150) (11,650) (11,650)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 759 (1,567) 3,269 3,834 3,872<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (12,293) (17,807) (11,881) (7,816) (7,778)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 7,686 24,538 18,419 (7,295) (7,059)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 603 178 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (6,661) (5,875) (569) (4,043) (5,922)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 476 19,157 17,850 (11,338) (12,981)<br />

Change in Cash 11,922 7,620 (3,080) 18,220 3,675<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 3.5% 2.0% 2.9% 3.1% 3.3%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 1.6% 0.2% 1.4% 1.7% 2.1%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 1.2% 0.0% 0.7% 0.9% 1.1%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 6.7% 0.1% 6.6% 9.2% 11.6%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 4.0% 0.6% 4.1% 5.3% 6.7%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 7.8% 0.6% 7.9% 10.6% 15.0%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 22.5% 44.4% 55.0% 44.9% 35.7%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - 1.7% 18.2% - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 236.1% 282.6% 344.6% 350.7% 351.5%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 2.0x 8.2x 2.2x 1.9x 2.4x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 38.7x 1.5x 11.1x 15.6x 24.5x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 48.5% 33.3% 25.5% 36.8% 32.4%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 172.1% 142.5% 145.4% 155.4% 154.7%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 123.8% 99.1% 97.3% 110.9% 107.4%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

263 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


PetroChina Company Limited - H Share (857 HK)<br />

Sector: Energy Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Energy<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 2.0x<br />

Country: China<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 30.1%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.8x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

PetroChina Company Limited (“PetroChina”) is the largest oil and gas producer and seller in PRC and<br />

one of the largest companies in the world. The Company, along with its subsidiaries, is engaged in a<br />

broad range of petroleum and natural gas related activities, including the exploration, development,<br />

production and sale of crude oil and natural gas and the refining of crude oil and petroleum products.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (RMB m) 48,722 61,590 62,667 62,502 63,298<br />

Gross Debt (RMB m) 233,620 318,373 347,589 361,033 358,074<br />

Interest Expense (RMB m) (6,746) (11,497) (17,561) (15,984) (15,993)<br />

EBIT (RMB m) 187,777 182,461 170,527 175,094 187,556<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 23.1% 29.4% 30.1% 29.2% 27.1%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 35.3% 35.8% 31.4% 39.8% 37.5%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.8x 0.9x 1.0x 1.1x 1.0x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.9x 0.6x 2.0x 1.0x 2.4x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 27.8x 15.9x 9.7x 11.0x 11.7x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (RMB m) 1,465,415 2,003,843 2,150,508 2,158,894 2,199,667<br />

% Change (YoY) 43.8% 36.7% 7.3% 0.4% 1.9%<br />

EBITDA (RMB m) 300,986 320,534 323,013 337,386 358,218<br />

% of Sales 20.5% 16.0% 15.0% 15.6% 16.3%<br />

Net Income (RMB m) 139,992 132,961 116,445 120,646 128,289<br />

% of Sales 9.6% 6.6% 5.4% 5.6% 5.8%<br />

Free Cash Flow (RMB m) 59,676 22,180 36,729 49,833 69,769<br />

% of Sales 4.1% 1.1% 1.7% 2.3% 3.2%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 86,954 48,722 61,590 62,667 62,502<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 59,676 22,180 36,729 49,833 69,769<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 146,630 70,902 98,319 112,501 132,272<br />

Principal Repayments 271,532 384,837 112,785 256,556 102,959<br />

Interest Payments 6,746 11,497 17,561 15,984 15,993<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 278,278 396,334 130,345 272,540 118,952<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.5x 0.2x 0.8x 0.4x 1.1x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In RMB m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 61,590 7.4%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 365,051 43.7%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 426,641 51.0%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 426,641 51.0%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 836,114 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

16.6% 19.0% 19.6%<br />

83.4% 81.0% 80.4%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(RMB m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 1,598,220 1,484,874 1,484,874<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 318,373 347,589 361,033<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

2.5x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

0.8x<br />

0.7x<br />

0.8x<br />

0.6x 0.5x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.3x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.1x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.2x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EI230786 Corp At Maturity Unsecured RMB 20,000.0 20,000.0 100.00 29-Apr-2010 29-Apr-2015 4.09% 1<br />

EI251334 Corp At Maturity Unsecured RMB 20,000.0 20,000.0 100.00 20-May-2010 20-May-2015 3.97% 1<br />

EJ288250 Corp At Maturity Unsecured RMB 20,000.0 20,000.0 100.00 19-Jul-2012 19-Jul-2016 3.90% 1<br />

264 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

2.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

30.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

14.72<br />

13.72<br />

12.72<br />

11.72<br />

10.72<br />

9.72<br />

8.72<br />

7.72<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

PetroChina Company Limited - H Share


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (RMB m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 1,465,415 2,003,843 2,150,508 2,158,894 2,199,667<br />

Operating Expenses (1,164,429) (1,683,309) (1,827,495) (1,821,508) (1,841,449)<br />

EBITDA 300,986 320,534 323,013 337,386 358,218<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (113,209) (138,073) (152,486) (162,292) (170,662)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 187,777 182,461 170,527 175,094 187,556<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (4,338) (8,212) (15,409) (12,996) (13,271)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) (1,172) (936) (193) 0 0<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 7,038 10,902 10,611 11,067 11,543<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 189,305 184,215 165,536 173,165 185,828<br />

Taxes on Profit (38,513) (38,256) (34,884) (36,491) (39,457)<br />

Minority Interests (10,800) (12,998) (14,207) (16,028) (18,082)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 139,992 132,961 116,445 120,646 128,289<br />

Balance Sheet (RMB m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 998,476 1,100,639 1,198,441 1,290,767 1,377,238<br />

Long-term Investments 5,467 4,541 4,529 4,517 4,505<br />

Associates 64,137 70,739 73,781 76,953 80,262<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 16,021 21,666 23,377 25,079 26,773<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 1,370,095 1,534,875 1,649,675 1,754,008 1,850,309<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 237,670 321,121 351,632 348,844 371,064<br />

Total Current Assets 286,392 382,711 414,300 411,347 434,362<br />

Total Assets 1,656,487 1,917,586 2,063,974 2,165,355 2,284,671<br />

Shareholders' Equity 938,926 1,002,745 1,066,176 1,133,596 1,206,092<br />

Total Equity 1,010,129 1,082,546 1,156,206 1,235,165 1,320,681<br />

Long Term Debt 131,352 180,675 116,033 283,074 245,004<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 216,622 275,002 210,360 377,401 339,331<br />

Total Current Liabilities 429,736 560,038 697,409 552,788 624,659<br />

Total Liabilities 646,358 835,040 907,769 930,189 963,990<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 1,656,487 1,917,586 2,063,974 2,165,355 2,284,671<br />

Cash Flow Statement (RMB m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 189,305 184,215 165,536 173,165 185,828<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 113,209 138,073 152,486 162,292 170,662<br />

Tax Paid (26,169) (46,379) (39,949) (37,352) (38,933)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 31,741 1,377 1,207 10,043 14,109<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 318,796 290,155 316,439 328,615 348,551<br />

Capital Expenditure (259,120) (267,975) (279,709) (278,781) (278,781)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (43,954) (28,939) (433) (202) 31<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (299,302) (283,638) (270,024) (268,527) (267,948)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (510) 86,235 29,216 13,445 (2,959)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (56,153) (66,933) (56,992) (57,714) (60,856)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (60,944) 9,259 (45,337) (60,253) (79,807)<br />

Change in Cash (41,450) 15,776 1,077 (165) 796<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 20.5% 16.0% 15.0% 15.6% 16.3%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 12.8% 9.1% 7.9% 8.1% 8.5%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 9.6% 6.6% 5.4% 5.6% 5.8%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 15.7% 13.7% 11.3% 11.0% 11.0%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 12.2% 10.4% 8.7% 8.4% 8.6%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 13.0% 11.3% 9.6% 9.2% 9.3%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 23.1% 29.4% 30.1% 29.2% 27.1%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 18.6% 23.8% 24.7% 24.2% 22.4%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 173.9% 184.1% 192.4% 192.3% 190.2%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.9x 0.6x 2.0x 1.0x 2.4x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 27.8x 15.9x 9.7x 11.0x 11.7x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 10.6% 10.9% 8.9% 11.2% 10.1%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 66.6% 68.3% 59.4% 74.4% 69.5%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 35.3% 35.8% 31.4% 39.8% 37.5%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

265 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


POSCO (005490 KS)<br />

Sector: Materials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Materials<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.5x<br />

Country: Korea<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 45.1%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.4x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Pohang Iron and Steel Company (POSCO) is one of the largest fully integrated steel manufacturing<br />

companies in the world with a total installed production capacity of 33 million tonnes (2011). The<br />

Company has two well integrated steel plants, Pohang Works and Gwangyang Works that produce a<br />

wide range of of steel products, including hot rolled and cold rolled products, plates, wire rods, silicon<br />

steel sheets and stainless steel products that are used in automotives, shipbuilding, home appliances<br />

and in the engineering and machinery industries.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (KW b) 3,521 4,599 4,331 5,615 9,780<br />

Gross Debt (KW b) 21,140 26,812 19,679 15,972 12,412<br />

Interest Expense (KW b) (587) (788) (1,009) (991) (889)<br />

EBIT (KW b) 5,434 5,408 5,192 7,422 8,047<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 54.9% 65.8% 45.1% 33.1% 23.3%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 99.1% 108.5% 149.9% 225.0% 243.6%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 2.0x 3.1x 2.3x 1.5x 1.2x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 5.0x 2.5x 0.5x 1.0x 1.7x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 9.3x 6.9x 5.1x 7.5x 9.1x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (KW b) 47,887 68,939 65,693 71,359 76,335<br />

% Change (YoY) 29.9% 44.0% (4.7%) 8.6% 7.0%<br />

EBITDA (KW b) 8,451 7,701 9,911 11,668 11,889<br />

% of Sales 17.6% 11.2% 15.1% 16.4% 15.6%<br />

Net Income (KW b) 4,186 3,714 3,176 4,822 5,452<br />

% of Sales 8.7% 5.4% 4.8% 6.8% 7.1%<br />

Free Cash Flow (KW b) (2,456) (4,214) 1,513 (193) 3,507<br />

% of Sales (5.1%) (6.1%) 2.3% (0.3%) 4.6%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 2,197 3,521 4,599 4,331 5,615<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (2,456) (4,214) 1,513 (193) 3,507<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) (259) (693) 6,112 4,139 9,122<br />

Principal Repayments 882 1,746 14,132 8,208 4,560<br />

Interest Payments 587 788 1,009 991 889<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 1,469 2,535 15,142 9,199 5,449<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) (0.2x) (0.3x) 0.4x 0.4x 1.7x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In KW b)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 4,599 12.0%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 12,151 31.7%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 16,750 43.7%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 16,750 43.7%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 38,354 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

266 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

44.7%<br />

55.3%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(KW b) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 33,131 30,428 32,259<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 26,812 19,679 15,972<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

6.0x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

0.5x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.3x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.1x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.4x<br />

(0.1x) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

(0.2x)<br />

(0.2x)<br />

(0.3x)<br />

(0.4x)<br />

(0.3x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

Share Price (KW)<br />

39.3%<br />

60.7%<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

33.1%<br />

66.9%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

5.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

5,11,800<br />

4,61,800<br />

4,11,800<br />

3,61,800<br />

3,11,800<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

2,61,800<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

POSCO<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (KW b) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 47,887 68,939 65,693 71,359 76,335<br />

Operating Expenses (39,668) (61,575) (56,109) (60,022) (64,780)<br />

EBITDA 8,451 7,701 9,911 11,668 11,889<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (3,017) (2,293) (4,719) (4,246) (3,842)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 5,434 5,408 5,192 7,422 8,047<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (451) (820) (1,230) (1,213) (997)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 102 144 113 103 93<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 183 51 50 50 49<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 5,267 4,782 4,125 6,361 7,192<br />

Taxes on Profit (1,081) (1,068) (948) (1,539) (1,741)<br />

Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 4,186 3,714 3,176 4,822 5,452<br />

Balance Sheet (KW b)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 21,718 25,365 22,641 20,295 17,403<br />

Long-term Investments 6,910 5,653 5,474 5,141 5,239<br />

Associates 3,306 3,832 3,833 3,802 3,762<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 4,619 5,245 4,151 3,291 2,615<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 41,746 44,852 41,292 38,205 35,776<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 24,151 28,958 29,758 30,560 32,405<br />

Total Current Assets 27,672 33,557 34,090 36,176 42,184<br />

Total Assets 69,418 78,409 75,382 74,381 77,960<br />

Shareholders' Equity 36,576 38,356 40,744 44,770 49,147<br />

Total Equity 38,537 40,730 43,677 48,285 53,252<br />

Long Term Debt 10,664 16,020 15,732 14,110 11,821<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 12,604 18,074 17,782 16,189 13,932<br />

Total Current Liabilities 18,277 19,605 13,923 9,907 10,776<br />

Total Liabilities 30,881 37,679 31,705 26,095 24,708<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 69,418 78,409 75,382 74,381 77,960<br />

Cash Flow Statement (KW b)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 5,267 4,782 4,125 6,361 7,192<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 3,017 2,293 4,719 4,246 3,842<br />

Tax Paid (752) (1,219) (980) (1,344) (1,602)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (4,400) (4,675) (886) (4,240) (1,442)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 3,582 1,692 7,378 5,469 8,566<br />

Capital Expenditure (6,038) (5,906) (5,865) (5,662) (5,059)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (2,914) (297) 407 380 357<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (6,915) (5,517) (284) (264) (357)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 4,686 5,374 (7,132) (3,708) (3,560)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 (61) 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (693) (771) (681) (666) (937)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 4,588 4,900 (7,361) (3,922) (4,045)<br />

Change in Cash 1,255 1,075 (267) 1,284 4,164<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 17.6% 11.2% 15.1% 16.4% 15.6%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 11.3% 7.8% 7.9% 10.4% 10.5%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 8.7% 5.4% 4.8% 6.8% 7.1%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 12.4% 9.9% 8.0% 11.3% 11.6%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 11.8% 11.4% 10.3% 13.6% 14.5%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 10.2% 8.1% 7.5% 10.9% 12.1%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 54.9% 65.8% 45.1% 33.1% 23.3%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 45.7% 54.5% 35.1% 21.4% 4.9%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 177.4% 197.3% 194.4% 175.1% 162.2%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 5.0x 2.5x 0.5x 1.0x 1.7x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 9.3x 6.9x 5.1x 7.5x 9.1x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 19.3% 23.5% 31.1% 56.7% 90.8%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 151.4% 171.2% 244.8% 365.2% 391.5%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 99.1% 108.5% 149.9% 225.0% 243.6%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

267 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Power Assets Holdings Ltd. (6 HK)<br />

Sector: Utilities Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Utilities<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 5.2x<br />

Country: Hong Kong<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 36.7%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 9.0x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Power Assets Holdings Ltd. is the holding company of Hongkong Electric Company Limited, Hongkong<br />

Electric International Limited (HKEI), Associated Technical Services Limited (ATS) and number of other<br />

subsidiaries. Hongkong Electric Company was founded in 1889 and is the flagship operating company of<br />

Power Assets Holdings Ltd. It is responsible for generation, transmission and distribution of electricity to<br />

Hong Kong Island, Lamma Island and Ap Lei Chau Island, within Hong Kong (SAR).<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (HK$ m) 5,839 6,121 5,610 4,466 4,750<br />

Gross Debt (HK$ m) 25,771 23,626 23,009 19,347 17,041<br />

Interest Expense (HK$ m) 0 0 0 0 0<br />

EBIT (HK$ m) 5,619 4,687 4,964 4,988 4,993<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 45.9% 40.8% 36.7% 28.4% 23.2%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 73.5% 192.7% 66.6% 67.0% 70.2%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 2.6x 3.8x 3.4x 3.1x 2.6x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 2.3x 0.5x 5.2x 0.8x 1.1x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 12.3x 7.3x 7.9x 8.9x 10.2x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (HK$ m) 10,371 10,201 10,441 10,507 10,574<br />

% Change (YoY) (0.2%) (1.6%) 2.4% 0.6% 0.6%<br />

EBITDA (HK$ m) 7,410 6,522 6,781 6,833 6,867<br />

% of Sales 71.4% 63.9% 64.9% 65.0% 64.9%<br />

Net Income (HK$ m) 7,194 9,075 9,832 10,358 10,596<br />

% of Sales 69.4% 89.0% 94.2% 98.6% 100.2%<br />

Free Cash Flow (HK$ m) 4,805 4,951 5,079 4,831 4,859<br />

% of Sales 46.3% 48.5% 48.6% 46.0% 46.0%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 5,093 5,839 6,121 5,610 4,466<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 4,805 4,951 5,079 4,831 4,859<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 9,898 10,790 11,200 10,441 9,325<br />

Principal Repayments 2,423 10,492 617 7,662 5,306<br />

Interest Payments 457 639 625 563 490<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 2,880 11,131 1,242 8,225 5,797<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 3.4x 1.0x 9.0x 1.3x 1.6x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In HK$ m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 6,121 22.2%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 25,151 91.2%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 31,272 113.4%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 6,500 23.6%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 37,772 137.0%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 27,569 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(HK$ m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 122,613 141,288 139,901<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 23,626 23,009 19,347<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

10.0x<br />

9.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

7.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

9.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

3.4x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

1.3x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EI495023 Corp At Maturity Company Guarantee US$ 750.0 750.0 99.27 14-Dec-2010 14-Dec-2020 4.25% 2<br />

268 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

16.2%<br />

83.8%<br />

14.0%<br />

86.0%<br />

12.1%<br />

87.9%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

6.0x<br />

14.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

12.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

85<br />

75<br />

65<br />

55<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

45<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Power Assets Holdings Ltd.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (HK$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 10,371 10,201 10,441 10,507 10,574<br />

Operating Expenses (2,961) (3,679) (3,660) (3,673) (3,707)<br />

EBITDA 7,410 6,522 6,781 6,833 6,867<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (1,791) (1,835) (1,818) (1,846) (1,874)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 5,619 4,687 4,964 4,988 4,993<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 576 800 819 808 842<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 91 207 2 2 0<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 1,899 4,193 4,937 5,468 5,685<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 8,190 9,888 10,722 11,265 11,520<br />

Taxes on Profit (937) (858) (855) (857) (863)<br />

Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items (59) 45 (35) (50) (62)<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 7,194 9,075 9,832 10,358 10,596<br />

Balance Sheet (HK$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 43,533 43,727 43,667 43,633 43,559<br />

Long-term Investments 67 67 67 67 67<br />

Associates 35,456 35,697 40,878 43,876 46,840<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 2,153 2,096 2,039 1,982 1,925<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 84,366 85,356 90,611 93,651 96,524<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 2,498 3,253 2,823 3,177 2,819<br />

Total Current Assets 8,337 9,374 8,433 7,643 7,569<br />

Total Assets 92,703 94,730 99,044 101,294 104,093<br />

Shareholders' Equity 56,137 57,873 62,755 68,111 73,498<br />

Total Equity 56,137 57,873 62,755 68,111 73,498<br />

Long Term Debt 17,312 23,009 15,347 14,041 11,434<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 26,240 32,571 24,996 23,787 21,285<br />

Total Current Liabilities 10,326 4,286 11,293 9,396 9,311<br />

Total Liabilities 36,566 36,857 36,289 33,183 30,595<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 92,703 94,730 99,044 101,294 104,093<br />

Cash Flow Statement (HK$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 8,190 9,888 10,722 11,265 11,520<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 1,791 1,835 1,818 1,846 1,874<br />

Tax Paid (868) (542) (819) (848) (859)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 99 530 356 95 (33)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 7,043 7,431 7,179 6,931 6,859<br />

Capital Expenditure (2,238) (2,480) (2,100) (2,100) (2,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (9,302) 2 (2,368) 31 32<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (15,184) (1,439) (2,176) 542 896<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 15,743 7,635 0 4,000 3,000<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (4,503) (4,503) (4,950) (5,003) (5,209)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (66,540) (92,076) (103,458) (106,117) (108,774)<br />

Change in Cash (74,681) (86,084) (98,455) (98,645) (101,019)<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 71.4% 63.9% 64.9% 65.0% 64.9%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 54.2% 45.9% 47.5% 47.5% 47.2%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 69.4% 89.0% 94.2% 98.6% 100.2%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 13.3% 15.9% 16.3% 15.8% 15.0%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 7.9% 6.5% 6.6% 6.3% 6.2%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 10.1% 8.7% 9.3% 9.4% 9.5%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 45.9% 40.8% 36.7% 28.4% 23.2%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 35.5% 30.2% 27.7% 21.8% 16.7%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 154.8% 164.4% 160.6% 153.1% 145.0%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 2.3x 0.5x 5.2x 0.8x 1.1x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 12.3x 7.3x 7.9x 8.9x 10.2x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 56.5% 142.8% 49.7% 47.5% 51.0%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 80.7% 218.7% 74.7% 81.3% 81.3%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 73.5% 192.7% 66.6% 67.0% 70.2%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

269 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Prada SpA (1913 HK)<br />

Sector: Consumer Discretionary Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Consumer Durables & Apparel Debt Service Cover (x) 4.5x<br />

Country: Hong Kong<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 12.3%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 4.4x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

PRADA S.p.A. (Prada) is recognized as one of the world’s most prestigious fashion and luxury goods<br />

groups. The Company opened its first store in 1913 in Galleria Vittorio Emanuele II in Milan. It was<br />

established as a limited liability company in Italy in 1990. It is engaged in the design, production and<br />

distribution of luxury handbags, leather goods, footwear, ready-to-wear apparel, accessories, eyewear<br />

and fragrances. The Group owns some of the most prestigious international brands which include Prada,<br />

Miu Miu, Car Shoe and Church’s.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Jan) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (€ m) 97 362 665 1,071 1,806<br />

Gross Debt (€ m) 498 344 298 209 210<br />

Interest Expense (€ m) (23) (17) (12) (10) (8)<br />

EBIT (€ m) 424 633 884 1,140 1,367<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 41.2% 18.8% 12.3% 6.6% 5.1%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 74.3% 103.6% 129.1% 186.6% 237.0%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 1.0x 0.6x 0.3x 0.2x 0.1x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.9x 2.9x 4.5x 5.0x 15.3x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 23.6x 37.6x 68.3x 111.3x 160.8x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (€ m) 2,047 2,556 3,294 4,050 4,793<br />

% Change (YoY) 31.1% 24.9% 28.9% 23.0% 18.3%<br />

EBITDA (€ m) 536 759 1,037 1,320 1,576<br />

% of Sales 26.2% 29.7% 31.5% 32.6% 32.9%<br />

Net Income (€ m) 251 432 623 800 989<br />

% of Sales 12.3% 16.9% 18.9% 19.8% 20.6%<br />

Free Cash Flow (€ m) 180 231 389 553 806<br />

% of Sales 8.8% 9.1% 11.8% 13.6% 16.8%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 99 97 362 665 1,071<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 180 231 389 553 806<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 279 328 751 1,218 1,878<br />

Principal Repayments 394 180 156 179 69<br />

Interest Payments 18 17 13 10 8<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 412 197 169 189 77<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.7x 1.7x 4.4x 6.4x 24.3x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In € m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 362 60.3%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 3,940 656.2%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 4,302 716.6%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 462 76.9%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 4,764 793.4%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 600 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

270 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

3.5%<br />

96.5%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(€ m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 9,356 17,887 17,887<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 344 298 209<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

6.0x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

7.0x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

1.6%<br />

98.4%<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

1.2%<br />

98.8%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

5.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

120.0x<br />

100.0x<br />

80.0x<br />

60.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

6.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.7x<br />

1.7x<br />

4.4x<br />

6.4x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

87<br />

77<br />

67<br />

57<br />

47<br />

37<br />

27<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Prada SpA<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (€ m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 2,047 2,556 3,294 4,050 4,793<br />

Operating Expenses (1,511) (1,796) (2,257) (2,730) (3,217)<br />

EBITDA 536 759 1,037 1,320 1,576<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (111) (126) (153) (180) (209)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 424 633 884 1,140 1,367<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (17) (14) (7) 0 9<br />

Other Income/(Expense) (9) (12) 1 0 0<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 388 603 873 1,135 1,368<br />

Taxes on Profit (135) (166) (244) (326) (370)<br />

Minority Interests (3) (4) (6) (8) (10)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 251 432 623 800 989<br />

Balance Sheet (€ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 478 631 795 969 1,137<br />

Long-term Investments 0 14 14 14 14<br />

Associates 2 2 2 2 2<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 869 864 860 858 857<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 1,596 1,826 2,008 2,202 2,385<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 673 755 927 1,101 1,234<br />

Total Current Assets 770 1,118 1,592 2,172 3,040<br />

Total Assets 2,366 2,944 3,600 4,373 5,425<br />

Shareholders' Equity 1,204 1,823 2,410 3,160 4,084<br />

Total Equity 1,210 1,831 2,420 3,170 4,096<br />

Long Term Debt 303 178 115 140 136<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 497 396 322 340 328<br />

Total Current Liabilities 659 717 858 863 1,001<br />

Total Liabilities 1,156 1,113 1,180 1,203 1,329<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 2,366 2,944 3,600 4,373 5,425<br />

Cash Flow Statement (€ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 388 603 873 1,135 1,368<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 111 126 153 180 209<br />

Tax Paid (90) (183) (224) (289) (340)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (75) (97) (78) (99) (38)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 368 480 729 933 1,206<br />

Capital Expenditure (188) (249) (340) (380) (400)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (4) (9) 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (192) (257) (340) (380) (400)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (110) (160) (42) (89) 3<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 205 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (59) (6) (40) (57) (73)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (169) 40 (82) (147) (70)<br />

Change in Cash 7 263 307 406 737<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 26.2% 29.7% 31.5% 32.6% 32.9%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 20.7% 24.8% 26.8% 28.2% 28.5%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 12.3% 16.9% 18.9% 19.8% 20.6%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 22.3% 28.5% 29.4% 28.7% 27.3%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 18.9% 23.9% 27.2% 28.9% 28.2%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 16.0% 24.0% 29.9% 34.3% 38.6%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 41.2% 18.8% 12.3% 6.6% 5.1%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 33.2% - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 200.4% 175.4% 154.6% 143.1% 135.3%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.9x 2.9x 4.5x 5.0x 15.3x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 23.6x 37.6x 68.3x 111.3x 160.8x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 14.7% 50.6% 77.5% 124.1% 180.4%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 116.8% 155.9% 185.6% 251.6% 303.7%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 74.3% 103.6% 129.1% 186.6% 237.0%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

271 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


PT United Tractors Tbk (UNTR IJ)<br />

Sector: Industrials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Capital Goods<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 3.6x<br />

Country: Indonesia<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 12.0%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 2.9x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

PT United Tractors Tbk (United Tractors), is a subsidiary (59.5% stake) of Astra International (ASII IJ<br />

Equity). The company was established on 13th October 1972 as the exclusive distributor of Komatsu<br />

Heavy Equipment in Indonesia. Today, it is a market leader in heavy equipment and also provides after<br />

sales services, spares, rental of heavy equipment as well as sale of other brands of heavy equipment<br />

including Nissan Diesel heavy-duty trucks, Bomag vibratory rollers, Timberjack forestry equipment and<br />

Tadano cranes.The company also has an active interest in Mining Contracting which is managed<br />

through one of the Company’s fully owned subsidiaries PT Pamapersada Nusantara (Pama). Pama is<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (IDR b) 1,343 7,135 3,529 4,769 6,085<br />

Gross Debt (IDR b) 5,680 4,703 3,708 3,248 2,685<br />

Interest Expense (IDR b) (165) (269) (232) (203) (182)<br />

EBIT (IDR b) 5,163 7,615 7,692 6,891 7,677<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 35.1% 17.1% 12.0% 9.6% 7.2%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 86.7% 123.9% 142.8% 154.3% 151.3%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.6x 0.5x 0.4x 0.3x 0.3x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.9x 1.9x 3.6x 9.8x 9.7x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 31.4x 28.3x 33.1x 34.0x 42.3x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (IDR b) 37,324 55,053 57,710 55,244 60,566<br />

% Change (YoY) 27.6% 47.5% 4.8% (4.3%) 9.6%<br />

EBITDA (IDR b) 8,019 11,041 11,308 10,678 11,650<br />

% of Sales 21.5% 20.1% 19.6% 19.3% 19.2%<br />

Net Income (IDR b) 3,873 5,901 5,765 5,232 5,867<br />

% of Sales 10.4% 10.7% 10.0% 9.5% 9.7%<br />

Free Cash Flow (IDR b) (836) 5,270 (145) 4,088 4,299<br />

% of Sales (2.2%) 9.6% (0.3%) 7.4% 7.1%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 2,769 1,343 7,135 3,529 4,769<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (836) 5,270 (145) 4,088 4,299<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 1,933 6,613 6,991 7,617 9,068<br />

Principal Repayments 3,121 4,166 2,208 675 778<br />

Interest Payments 165 269 232 203 182<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 3,286 4,435 2,440 878 959<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.6x 1.5x 2.9x 8.7x 9.5x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In IDR b)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 7,135 120.4%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 19,861 335.1%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 26,996 455.5%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 26,996 455.5%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 5,926 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

272 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4.6% 4.8%<br />

95.4% 95.2%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(IDR b) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 98,289 73,484 79,079<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 4,703 3,708 3,248<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

10.0x<br />

9.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

7.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

8.7x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.9x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.6x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

3.9%<br />

96.1%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

12.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

35.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (IDR)<br />

39,323<br />

34,323<br />

29,323<br />

24,323<br />

19,323<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

14,323<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

PT United Tractors Tbk<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (IDR b) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 37,324 55,053 57,710 55,244 60,566<br />

Operating Expenses (29,305) (44,012) (46,402) (44,566) (48,917)<br />

EBITDA 8,019 11,041 11,308 10,678 11,650<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (2,857) (3,426) (3,616) (3,787) (3,973)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 5,163 7,615 7,692 6,891 7,677<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (133) 17 (1) (9) 53<br />

Other Income/(Expense) (82) 59 (292) (75) (77)<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 23 28 35 49 65<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 5,061 7,785 7,524 6,873 7,729<br />

Taxes on Profit (1,187) (1,885) (1,748) (1,615) (1,833)<br />

Minority Interests (2) 1 (12) (26) (29)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 3,873 5,901 5,765 5,232 5,867<br />

Balance Sheet (IDR b)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 10,446 12,022 12,869 13,300 13,573<br />

Long-term Investments 308 258 258 258 258<br />

Associates 135 358 604 834 1,048<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 2,222 5,726 6,940 7,800 8,613<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 14,168 20,814 23,874 25,934 27,810<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 14,190 18,490 18,836 17,798 19,133<br />

Total Current Assets 15,533 25,626 22,365 22,567 25,218<br />

Total Assets 29,701 46,440 46,238 48,500 53,028<br />

Shareholders' Equity 16,136 26,320 29,715 32,705 36,227<br />

Total Equity 16,165 27,504 30,907 33,915 37,458<br />

Long Term Debt 2,699 2,116 2,653 2,091 1,428<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 3,616 4,006 4,543 3,981 3,318<br />

Total Current Liabilities 9,919 14,930 10,788 10,604 12,252<br />

Total Liabilities 13,536 18,936 15,331 14,585 15,571<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 29,701 46,440 46,238 48,500 53,028<br />

Cash Flow Statement (IDR b)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 5,061 7,785 7,524 6,873 7,729<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 2,857 3,426 3,616 3,787 3,973<br />

Tax Paid (2,280) (1,909) (1,920) (1,848) (1,986)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (149) (3,270) 1,045 434 (1,158)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 2,522 10,528 6,355 9,788 9,999<br />

Capital Expenditure (3,358) (5,258) (6,500) (5,700) (5,700)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 78 (1,790) (64) (101) (98)<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (3,562) (7,484) (6,361) (5,635) (5,585)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 1,605 (1,558) (995) (460) (563)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 6,023 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (1,629) (1,697) (2,370) (2,242) (2,345)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (255) 2,563 (3,601) (2,913) (3,098)<br />

Change in Cash (1,295) 5,608 (3,607) 1,240 1,316<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 21.5% 20.1% 19.6% 19.3% 19.2%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 13.8% 13.8% 13.3% 12.5% 12.7%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 10.4% 10.7% 10.0% 9.5% 9.7%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 25.8% 27.8% 20.6% 16.8% 17.0%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 19.3% 20.6% 17.0% 14.8% 15.5%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 21.7% 24.4% 20.2% 16.1% 17.3%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 35.1% 17.1% 12.0% 9.6% 7.2%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 26.8% - 0.6% - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 180.5% 179.3% 165.4% 151.8% 147.3%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.9x 1.9x 3.6x 9.8x 9.7x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 31.4x 28.3x 33.1x 34.0x 42.3x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 13.5% 47.8% 32.7% 45.0% 49.7%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 156.6% 171.6% 207.3% 212.8% 205.8%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 86.7% 123.9% 142.8% 154.3% 151.3%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

273 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


PTT Exploration & Production Public Co., Ltd. (PTTEP TB)<br />

Sector: Energy Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Energy<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 3.5x<br />

Country: Thailand<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 48.8%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.7x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

PTT Exploration & Production Company Limited (PTTEP) is Thailand's second biggest upstream<br />

petroleum producer. The company is primarily engaged in the exploration, development and production<br />

of natural gas, crude oil, condensate and liquefied petroleum gas. The company’s main focus is gas<br />

production with liquids (crude oil and condensate) accounting for less than 30% of the total output. As on<br />

31st December 2011, the company had a proved reserves base of 969 mmboe, out of which<br />

approximately 72% was natural gas.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (THB m) 59,684 42,800 20,451 57,039 95,710<br />

Gross Debt (THB m) 77,878 122,745 115,949 122,916 105,223<br />

Interest Expense (THB m) (2,005) (3,754) (5,156) (5,052) (4,825)<br />

EBIT (THB m) 68,412 82,342 107,404 128,967 133,613<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 47.8% 61.4% 48.8% 43.1% 31.9%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 145.0% 86.6% 67.5% 86.7% 103.5%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.7x 0.9x 0.8x 0.7x 0.6x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 3.3x 31.0x 3.5x 9.0x 4.9x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 34.1x 21.9x 20.8x 25.5x 27.7x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (THB m) 140,656 169,646 209,613 243,763 260,908<br />

% Change (YoY) 17.9% 20.6% 23.6% 16.3% 7.0%<br />

EBITDA (THB m) 100,716 116,396 149,310 174,845 183,827<br />

% of Sales 71.6% 68.6% 71.2% 71.7% 70.5%<br />

Net Income (THB m) 43,774 44,748 58,649 71,753 71,604<br />

% of Sales 31.1% 26.4% 28.0% 29.4% 27.4%<br />

Free Cash Flow (THB m) 21,224 17,966 3,121 49,898 78,044<br />

% of Sales 15.1% 10.6% 1.5% 20.5% 29.9%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 48,799 59,684 42,800 20,451 57,039<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 21,224 17,966 3,121 49,898 78,044<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 70,023 77,650 45,921 70,349 135,083<br />

Principal Repayments 19,611 0 21,796 8,033 17,693<br />

Interest Payments 2,005 3,754 5,156 5,052 4,825<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 21,616 3,754 26,952 13,085 22,518<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 3.2x 20.7x 1.7x 5.4x 6.0x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In THB m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 42,800 41.3%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 273,073 263.6%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 315,873 305.0%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 50,090 48.4%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 365,963 353.3%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 103,582 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

18.0% 17.6% 18.2%<br />

82.0% 82.4% 81.8%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(THB m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 559,417 544,477 552,777<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 122,745 115,949 122,916<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

35.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

35.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

25.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EI625297 Corp At Maturity Company Guarantee US$ 700.0 700.0 100.00 05-Apr-2011 05-Apr-2021 5.69% 2<br />

EJ231444 Corp At Maturity Company Guarantee US$ 500.0 500.0 100.00 12-Dec-2012 12-Dec-2042 6.35% 2<br />

EI325079 Corp At Maturity Company Guarantee US$ 500.0 500.0 100.00 19-Jul-2010 19-Jul-2015 4.15% 2<br />

274 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (THB)<br />

20.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

226<br />

206<br />

186<br />

166<br />

146<br />

3.2x<br />

20.7x<br />

1.7x<br />

5.4x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

126<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

PTT Exploration & Production Public Co., Ltd.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (THB m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 140,656 169,646 209,613 243,763 260,908<br />

Operating Expenses (39,940) (53,250) (60,303) (68,918) (77,080)<br />

EBITDA 100,716 116,396 149,310 174,845 183,827<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (32,304) (34,055) (41,906) (45,878) (50,215)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 68,412 82,342 107,404 128,967 133,613<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (2,922) (3,274) (5,245) (5,023) (4,207)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) (548) 815 2,424 3,384 3,593<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits (46) 75 171 179 211<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 62,967 79,793 101,298 127,507 133,209<br />

Taxes on Profit (19,194) (35,045) (42,649) (55,753) (61,604)<br />

Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 43,774 44,748 58,649 71,753 71,604<br />

Balance Sheet (THB m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 204,867 294,757 344,381 368,882 366,716<br />

Long-term Investments 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Associates 742 853 1,024 1,203 1,414<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 5,744 46,467 59,755 64,971 63,276<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 237,762 361,078 424,160 454,056 450,406<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 24,985 43,964 45,017 46,463 51,692<br />

Total Current Assets 84,669 86,764 65,468 103,502 147,401<br />

Total Assets 322,430 447,842 489,629 557,559 597,808<br />

Shareholders' Equity 163,059 200,024 237,681 285,147 329,874<br />

Total Equity 163,059 200,024 237,681 285,147 329,874<br />

Long Term Debt 69,933 90,949 97,916 95,223 67,193<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 101,358 148,314 155,785 153,754 126,299<br />

Total Current Liabilities 58,013 99,504 96,163 118,657 141,634<br />

Total Liabilities 159,371 247,818 251,948 272,411 267,934<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 322,430 447,842 489,629 557,559 597,808<br />

Cash Flow Statement (THB m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 62,967 79,793 101,298 127,507 133,209<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 32,304 34,055 41,906 45,878 50,215<br />

Tax Paid (24,694) (29,586) (34,040) (44,897) (53,251)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 1,546 253 389 1,259 (41)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 84,293 88,716 115,267 134,377 134,223<br />

Capital Expenditure (63,069) (70,750) (112,146) (84,479) (56,180)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 0 0 7,474 9,062 10,022<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (73,980) (128,291) (104,671) (75,417) (46,157)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 19,466 42,018 (6,796) 6,967 (17,693)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 401 233 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (12,056) (17,079) (20,993) (24,287) (26,878)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 5,807 21,419 (32,945) (22,372) (49,396)<br />

Change in Cash 16,119 (18,157) (22,349) 36,588 38,671<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 71.6% 68.6% 71.2% 71.7% 70.5%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 48.6% 48.5% 51.2% 52.9% 51.2%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 31.1% 26.4% 28.0% 29.4% 27.4%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 28.6% 24.6% 26.8% 27.4% 23.3%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 22.1% 21.5% 23.0% 24.7% 23.3%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 22.7% 16.8% 17.1% 18.2% 17.8%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 47.8% 61.4% 48.8% 43.1% 31.9%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 11.2% 40.0% 40.2% 23.1% 2.9%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 203.6% 212.1% 214.2% 200.3% 187.9%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 3.3x 31.0x 3.5x 9.0x 4.9x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 34.1x 21.9x 20.8x 25.5x 27.7x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 102.9% 43.0% 21.3% 48.1% 67.6%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 145.9% 87.2% 68.1% 87.2% 104.1%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 145.0% 86.6% 67.5% 86.7% 103.5%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

275 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Qantas Airways Limited (QAN AU)<br />

Sector: Industrials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Transportation<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.0x<br />

Country: Australia<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 105.5%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 2.3x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Founded in the Queensland outback in 1920, Qantas Airways Limited (Qantas) has grown to be<br />

Australia's largest domestic and international airline. Registered originally as the Queensland and<br />

Northern Territory Aerial Services Limited (QANTAS), Qantas is widely regarded as the world's leading<br />

long distance airline and one of the strongest brands in Australia. The Qantas Group’s main business is<br />

the transportation of customers using two complementary airline brands - Qantas and Jetstar operating<br />

international, domestic and regional services. In addition to its airline brands, the Group operates a<br />

number of related businesses, including Qantas Frequent Flyer and Qantas Freight Enterprises.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 30 Jun) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (A$ m) 3,496 3,398 3,220 3,448 3,528<br />

Gross Debt (A$ m) 6,031 6,549 6,430 6,438 6,246<br />

Interest Expense (A$ m) (329) (368) (389) (386) (381)<br />

EBIT (A$ m) 644 272 427 679 894<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 98.0% 111.2% 105.5% 99.3% 88.8%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 84.5% 71.4% 69.7% 69.4% 68.8%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 3.1x 3.8x 3.4x 3.0x 2.6x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.4x 1.7x 1.0x 1.2x 1.2x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 2.0x 0.7x 1.1x 1.8x 2.3x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (A$ m) 14,894 15,724 16,424 17,058 18,015<br />

% Change (YoY) 8.1% 5.6% 4.5% 3.9% 5.6%<br />

EBITDA (A$ m) 1,893 1,656 1,894 2,156 2,425<br />

% of Sales 12.7% 10.5% 11.5% 12.6% 13.5%<br />

Net Income (A$ m) 250 (245) 208 387 550<br />

% of Sales 1.7% (1.6%) 1.3% 2.3% 3.1%<br />

Free Cash Flow (A$ m) (587) (226) 13 280 314<br />

% of Sales (3.9%) (1.4%) 0.1% 1.6% 1.7%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 3,704 3,496 3,398 3,220 3,448<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (587) (226) 13 280 314<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 3,117 3,270 3,411 3,500 3,763<br />

Principal Repayments 784 566 1,119 992 1,192<br />

Interest Payments 329 414 389 386 381<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 1,113 980 1,508 1,378 1,572<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 2.8x 3.3x 2.3x 2.5x 2.4x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In A$ m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 3,398 41.7%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 2,062 25.3%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 5,460 67.1%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 300 3.7%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 5,760 70.8%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 8,139 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

276 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

72.9%<br />

27.1%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(A$ m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 2,435 3,511 3,511<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 6,549 6,430 6,438<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

1.8x<br />

1.6x<br />

2.5x<br />

1.4x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.2x<br />

1.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

0.8x<br />

0.6x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

4.0x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

64.7% 64.7%<br />

35.3% 35.3%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

3.5x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.5x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

2.8x<br />

3.3x<br />

2.3x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Share Price (A$)<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

2.5x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

2.22<br />

2.02<br />

1.82<br />

1.62<br />

1.42<br />

1.22<br />

1.02<br />

0.82<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Qantas Airways Limited<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (A$ m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 14,894 15,724 16,424 17,058 18,015<br />

Operating Expenses (13,001) (14,068) (14,530) (14,901) (15,590)<br />

EBITDA 1,893 1,656 1,894 2,156 2,425<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (1,249) (1,384) (1,467) (1,477) (1,531)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 644 272 427 679 894<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (85) (165) (179) (173) (154)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) (28) (11) 0 0 0<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 22 3 37 37 38<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 323 (349) 284 543 778<br />

Taxes on Profit (74) 105 (74) (152) (222)<br />

Minority Interests 1 (1) (2) (4) (6)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 250 (245) 208 387 550<br />

Balance Sheet (A$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 12,249 13,008 13,060 13,220 14,101<br />

Long-term Investments 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Associates 476 457 464 472 479<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 593 610 619 626 632<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 15,217 15,718 16,077 16,420 16,885<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 2,145 2,062 2,144 2,202 2,288<br />

Total Current Assets 5,641 5,460 5,364 5,651 5,817<br />

Total Assets 20,858 21,178 21,441 22,071 22,702<br />

Shareholders' Equity 6,147 5,885 6,093 6,480 7,030<br />

Total Equity 6,151 5,889 6,097 6,484 7,034<br />

Long Term Debt 5,454 5,430 5,438 5,246 4,854<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 8,472 8,171 8,208 8,032 7,845<br />

Total Current Liabilities 6,235 7,118 7,136 7,555 7,822<br />

Total Liabilities 14,707 15,289 15,344 15,587 15,667<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 20,858 21,178 21,441 22,071 22,702<br />

Cash Flow Statement (A$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 323 (349) 284 543 778<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 1,249 1,384 1,467 1,477 1,531<br />

Tax Paid 2 (1) (37) (94) (190)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 74 388 92 176 187<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 1,820 1,903 1,913 2,180 2,389<br />

Capital Expenditure (2,407) (2,129) (1,900) (1,900) (2,075)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (11) (82) 135 142 147<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (2,187) (2,007) (1,580) (1,570) (1,731)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 575 122 (119) 8 (192)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 179 2 (510) (382) (578)<br />

Change in Cash (188) (102) (178) 228 80<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 12.7% 10.5% 11.5% 12.6% 13.5%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 4.3% 1.7% 2.6% 4.0% 5.0%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 1.7% (1.6%) 1.3% 2.3% 3.1%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 4.1% (4.1%) 3.5% 6.2% 8.1%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 4.0% 2.1% 2.7% 3.8% 4.7%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 4.6% 2.4% 2.7% 4.2% 5.3%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 98.0% 111.2% 105.5% 99.3% 88.8%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 41.2% 53.5% 52.7% 46.1% 38.6%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 337.3% 349.4% 355.8% 346.1% 331.4%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.4x 1.7x 1.0x 1.2x 1.2x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 2.0x 0.7x 1.1x 1.8x 2.3x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 56.1% 47.7% 45.1% 45.6% 45.1%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 90.5% 76.7% 75.2% 74.8% 74.4%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 84.5% 71.4% 69.7% 69.4% 68.8%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

277 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Quanta Computer Inc (2382 TT)<br />

Sector: Information Technology Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Technology Hardware & Equipment Debt Service Cover (x) 2.2x<br />

Country: Taiwan<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 265.4%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 35.5x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Quanta Computer is the biggest ODM in notebooks, producing for big brands such as HP, Apple, Dell,<br />

Asustek, Lenovo etc. Other than notebooks the company manufactures server and networking products,<br />

home entertainment solutions, automobile's display and navigation products and hand-held devices such<br />

as smartphones and tablets. After gaining scale in notebook business the company is focussing on its<br />

Non-NB business to capitalize on strong growth in smartphones, tablets and server products.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (NT$ m) 179,707 298,186 412,426 440,994 506,785<br />

Gross Debt (NT$ m) 160,961 301,393 351,393 388,685 438,685<br />

Interest Expense (NT$ m) (1,496) (5,423) (10,608) (11,101) (10,342)<br />

EBIT (NT$ m) 15,976 15,885 16,623 19,221 26,522<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 135.1% 243.5% 265.4% 278.9% 283.1%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 101.2% 95.8% 101.8% 100.6% 99.4%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 5.2x 10.3x 13.8x 14.0x 12.2x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 5.4x 4.1x 2.2x 1.0x 3.3x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 10.7x 2.9x 1.6x 1.7x 2.6x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (NT$ m) 1,124,728 1,109,728 1,041,399 1,131,229 1,250,501<br />

% Change (YoY) 33.9% (1.3%) (6.2%) 8.6% 10.5%<br />

EBITDA (NT$ m) 21,532 22,372 23,618 26,447 34,023<br />

% of Sales 1.9% 2.0% 2.3% 2.3% 2.7%<br />

Net Income (NT$ m) 18,592 23,053 23,654 22,369 30,013<br />

% of Sales 1.7% 2.1% 2.3% 2.0% 2.4%<br />

Free Cash Flow (NT$ m) (9,176) (5,040) 78,173 5,623 29,210<br />

% of Sales (0.8%) (0.5%) 7.5% 0.5% 2.3%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 106,349 179,707 298,186 412,426 440,994<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (9,176) (5,040) 78,173 5,623 29,210<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 97,173 174,667 376,360 418,049 470,204<br />

Principal Repayments 1,810 63 0 12,708 0<br />

Interest Payments 1,496 5,423 10,608 11,101 10,342<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 3,306 5,486 10,608 23,810 10,342<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 29.4x 31.8x 35.5x 17.6x 45.5x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In NT$ m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 298,186 337.3%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 187,288 211.8%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 485,474 549.1%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 21 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 485,495 549.1%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 88,416 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

278 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

55.2% 57.3% 59.8%<br />

44.8% 42.7% 40.2%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(NT$ m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 244,159 261,791 261,791<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 301,393 351,393 388,685<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

6.0x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

5.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

40.0x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Share Price (NT$)<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

12.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

35.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

104<br />

94<br />

84<br />

74<br />

64<br />

29.4x<br />

31.8x<br />

35.5x<br />

17.6x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

54<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Quanta Computer Inc<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (NT$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 1,124,728 1,109,728 1,041,399 1,131,229 1,250,501<br />

Operating Expenses (1,103,195) (1,087,356) (1,017,780) (1,104,782) (1,216,478)<br />

EBITDA 21,532 22,372 23,618 26,447 34,023<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (5,556) (6,487) (6,996) (7,226) (7,501)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 15,976 15,885 16,623 19,221 26,522<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 53 1,914 3,870 4,625 7,271<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 10,724 15,061 10,165 5,278 5,278<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 70 26 24 44 50<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 26,709 32,541 30,682 29,168 39,121<br />

Taxes on Profit (7,378) (9,043) (6,716) (6,459) (8,651)<br />

Minority Interests (739) (446) (312) (341) (457)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 18,592 23,053 23,654 22,369 30,013<br />

Balance Sheet (NT$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 47,027 53,028 50,818 49,353 48,077<br />

Long-term Investments 11,086 7,886 7,886 7,886 7,886<br />

Associates 1,016 684 789 903 1,019<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 1,639 1,724 1,509 1,258 1,469<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 63,663 64,713 62,403 60,817 59,884<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 268,614 308,009 246,808 281,905 295,503<br />

Total Current Assets 448,321 606,195 659,234 722,899 802,288<br />

Total Assets 511,984 670,909 721,637 783,716 862,173<br />

Shareholders' Equity 111,603 116,344 124,668 131,307 146,445<br />

Total Equity 119,124 123,762 132,398 139,377 154,972<br />

Long Term Debt 29,784 32,680 19,972 19,972 0<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 30,220 33,009 20,301 20,301 329<br />

Total Current Liabilities 362,641 514,138 568,938 624,038 706,871<br />

Total Liabilities 392,860 547,147 589,239 644,339 707,201<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 511,984 670,909 721,637 783,716 862,173<br />

Cash Flow Statement (NT$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 26,709 32,541 30,682 29,168 39,121<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 5,556 6,487 6,996 7,226 7,501<br />

Tax Paid (5,198) (4,720) (6,044) (5,813) (7,785)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (21,640) (29,339) 53,272 (16,734) (1,295)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 1,571 2,256 84,173 12,623 37,210<br />

Capital Expenditure (10,747) (7,296) (6,000) (7,000) (8,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (2,546) 9,481 1,396 1,383 1,457<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (13,886) 1,645 (4,604) (5,617) (6,543)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 103,855 125,076 50,000 37,292 50,000<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 668 300 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (14,641) (14,169) (15,330) (15,730) (14,875)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 89,725 111,057 34,670 21,562 35,125<br />

Change in Cash 77,410 114,958 114,240 28,568 65,792<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 1.9% 2.0% 2.3% 2.3% 2.7%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 1.4% 1.4% 1.6% 1.7% 2.1%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 1.7% 2.1% 2.3% 2.0% 2.4%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 17.0% 20.2% 19.6% 17.5% 21.6%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 3.9% 3.9% 4.5% 4.6% 5.4%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 15.3% 11.1% 14.3% 21.1% 26.3%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 135.1% 243.5% 265.4% 278.9% 283.1%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 20.1% 30.3% - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 407.6% 518.9% 577.8% 588.1% 592.6%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 5.4x 4.1x 2.2x 1.0x 3.3x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 10.7x 2.9x 1.6x 1.7x 2.6x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 37.8% 51.3% 66.5% 65.2% 66.8%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 123.6% 117.9% 115.9% 115.8% 113.5%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 101.2% 95.8% 101.8% 100.6% 99.4%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

279 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Ranbaxy Laboratories Limited (RBXY IN)<br />

Sector: Health Care Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology Debt Service Cover (x) 3.0x<br />

Country: India<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 87.6%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 6.4x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Ranbaxy Laboratories Limited is an integrated, research based pharmaceutical company, producing a<br />

wide range of generic medicines. Pharmaceuticals segment comprises manufacture and trading of<br />

Formulations, Active Pharmaceuticals Ingredients (API) and Intermediate, Generics, Drug discovery and<br />

Consumer Health Care products. Ranbaxy's diverse product basket of over 5,000 SKUs available in over<br />

125 countries worldwide, encompasses a wide therapeutic mix covering a majority of the chronic and<br />

acute segments. The company operates as a subsidiary of Daiichi Sankyo Co Ltd.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Rs m) 32,644 30,681 36,749 48,143 59,767<br />

Gross Debt (Rs m) 43,348 44,907 40,420 35,932 31,445<br />

Interest Expense (Rs m) (598) (641) (1,920) (1,718) (1,516)<br />

EBIT (Rs m) 14,672 12,249 18,706 15,610 15,704<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 76.5% 109.1% 87.6% 59.9% 42.2%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 157.0% 94.8% 101.9% 120.9% 120.1%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 2.2x 2.7x 1.9x 2.0x 1.7x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 29.4x 21.1x 3.0x 2.6x 2.8x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 24.5x 19.1x 9.7x 9.1x 10.4x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (Rs m) 89,608 101,614 122,988 110,612 119,571<br />

% Change (YoY) 18.0% 13.4% 21.0% (10.1%) 8.1%<br />

EBITDA (Rs m) 18,389 16,189 21,961 19,083 19,375<br />

% of Sales 20.5% 15.9% 17.9% 17.3% 16.2%<br />

Net Income (Rs m) 14,968 (28,997) 16,534 13,784 14,432<br />

% of Sales 16.7% (28.5%) 13.4% 12.5% 12.1%<br />

Free Cash Flow (Rs m) 10,403 1,553 10,287 14,839 14,351<br />

% of Sales 11.6% 1.5% 8.4% 13.4% 12.0%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 12,416 32,644 30,681 36,749 48,143<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 10,403 1,553 10,287 14,839 14,351<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 22,819 34,197 40,968 51,588 62,493<br />

Principal Repayments 20 125 4,487 4,487 4,487<br />

Interest Payments 598 641 1,920 1,718 1,516<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 618 766 6,407 6,205 6,003<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 36.9x 44.7x 6.4x 8.3x 10.4x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In Rs m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 30,681 102.2%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 59,346 197.7%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 90,027 299.9%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 90,027 299.9%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 30,017 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

280 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

20.8% 16.0% 14.1%<br />

79.2% 84.0% 85.9%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(Rs m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 170,868 212,266 218,744<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 44,907 40,420 35,932<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

35.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

50.0x<br />

45.0x<br />

44.7x<br />

40.0x<br />

35.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

36.9x<br />

10.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

6.4x<br />

8.3x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (Rs)<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

691<br />

641<br />

591<br />

541<br />

491<br />

441<br />

391<br />

341<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Ranbaxy Laboratories Limited<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (Rs m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 89,608 101,614 122,988 110,612 119,571<br />

Operating Expenses (71,219) (85,425) (101,027) (91,529) (100,197)<br />

EBITDA 18,389 16,189 21,961 19,083 19,375<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (3,717) (3,940) (3,255) (3,473) (3,670)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 14,672 12,249 18,706 15,610 15,704<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 972 (4,982) (516) 114 777<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 2,491 3,060 454 1,351 1,378<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 21,001 (26,865) 20,031 17,075 17,859<br />

Taxes on Profit (5,849) (1,969) (3,250) (3,161) (3,295)<br />

Minority Interests (126) (97) (84) (70) (73)<br />

Other Post-tax Items (59) (66) (164) (61) (59)<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 14,968 (28,997) 16,534 13,784 14,432<br />

Balance Sheet (Rs m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 24,372 27,329 30,535 33,185 35,421<br />

Long-term Investments 3,965 (1,202) (1,202) (1,202) (1,202)<br />

Associates 1,020 2,184 2,020 1,959 1,901<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 21,107 21,258 20,913 20,561 20,196<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 54,679 64,327 54,546 56,220 57,642<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 54,287 73,901 79,181 66,860 75,185<br />

Total Current Assets 86,932 104,582 115,930 115,003 134,952<br />

Total Assets 141,611 168,910 170,476 171,223 192,594<br />

Shareholders' Equity 56,047 40,359 45,227 59,011 73,444<br />

Total Equity 56,694 41,169 46,121 59,974 74,480<br />

Long Term Debt 43,348 44,907 40,420 35,932 31,445<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 43,519 44,984 40,496 36,009 31,522<br />

Total Current Liabilities 41,398 82,757 83,859 75,239 86,593<br />

Total Liabilities 84,917 127,741 124,355 111,248 118,115<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 141,611 168,910 170,476 171,223 192,594<br />

Cash Flow Statement (Rs m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 21,001 (26,865) 20,031 17,075 17,859<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 3,717 3,940 3,255 3,473 3,670<br />

Tax Paid (6,189) (2,172) (3,250) (3,161) (3,295)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 2,987 19,078 (4,775) 3,191 2,493<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 15,386 6,292 16,387 20,989 20,501<br />

Capital Expenditure (4,983) (4,739) (6,100) (6,150) (6,150)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 721 287 797 943 998<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (21,708) 9,161 1,728 (654) (685)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 8,248 (10,643) (4,487) (4,487) (4,487)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 267 148 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (9) (843) (1) 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 7,908 (12,115) (6,405) (6,205) (6,003)<br />

Change in Cash 1,587 3,338 11,710 14,129 13,812<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 20.5% 15.9% 17.9% 17.3% 16.2%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 16.4% 12.1% 15.2% 14.1% 13.1%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 16.7% (28.5%) 13.4% 12.5% 12.1%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 30.1% (60.2%) 38.6% 26.4% 21.8%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 12.4% 8.6% 11.9% 10.2% 9.9%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 16.9% 20.9% 30.3% 26.5% 27.7%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 76.5% 109.1% 87.6% 59.9% 42.2%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 18.9% 34.6% 8.0% - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 264.5% 322.1% 396.5% 327.8% 274.7%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 29.4x 21.1x 3.0x 2.6x 2.8x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 24.5x 19.1x 9.7x 9.1x 10.4x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 78.9% 37.1% 43.8% 64.0% 69.0%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 210.0% 126.4% 138.2% 152.8% 155.8%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 157.0% 94.8% 101.9% 120.9% 120.1%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

281 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Reliance Communications Limited (RCOM IN)<br />

Sector: Telecommunication Services Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Telecommunication Services Debt Service Cover (x) 0.8x<br />

Country: India<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 92.5%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.7x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Reliance Communications Limited is India’s largest integrated communications service provider in the<br />

private sector with over 162 million individual, enterprise, and carrier customers as at 31 March 2012.<br />

The company operates pan-India across the full spectrum of wireless, wireline, and long distance, voice,<br />

data, video and internet communication services. The company also has an extensive international<br />

presence through the provision of long distance voice, data and internet services and submarine cable<br />

network infrastructure globally.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Mar) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Rs m) 53,180 10,690 10,809 13,415 21,840<br />

Gross Debt (Rs m) 390,710 383,030 354,155 319,648 286,772<br />

Interest Expense (Rs m) (13,620) (17,180) (23,773) (22,030) (20,177)<br />

EBIT (Rs m) 19,070 18,070 29,666 32,399 35,420<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 94.6% 101.9% 92.5% 81.4% 71.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 49.3% 53.5% 60.6% 66.4% 63.7%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 4.1x 6.7x 5.4x 4.7x 4.1x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 2.4x 0.4x 0.8x 0.8x 0.8x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 1.4x 1.1x 1.2x 1.5x 1.8x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (Rs m) 217,000 192,820 202,767 211,878 220,327<br />

% Change (YoY) 3.1% (11.1%) 5.2% 4.5% 4.0%<br />

EBITDA (Rs m) 84,110 57,850 67,657 71,169 74,323<br />

% of Sales 38.8% 30.0% 33.4% 33.6% 33.7%<br />

Net Income (Rs m) 13,450 9,280 6,862 9,400 10,625<br />

% of Sales 6.2% 4.8% 3.4% 4.4% 4.8%<br />

Free Cash Flow (Rs m) (78,930) 9,010 48,286 54,381 56,709<br />

% of Sales (36.4%) 4.7% 23.8% 25.7% 25.7%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 48,585 53,180 10,690 10,809 13,415<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (78,930) 9,010 48,286 54,381 56,709<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) (30,345) 62,190 58,976 65,190 70,124<br />

Principal Repayments 21,390 140,720 58,875 54,508 52,876<br />

Interest Payments 13,620 17,180 23,773 22,030 20,177<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 35,010 157,900 82,648 76,537 73,052<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) (0.9x) 0.4x 0.7x 0.9x 1.0x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In Rs m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 10,690 2.7%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 273,420 68.6%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 284,110 71.3%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 284,110 71.3%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 398,692 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

68.8% 69.5% 67.3%<br />

31.2% 30.5% 32.7%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(Rs m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 173,481 155,421 155,421<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 383,030 354,155 319,648<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

3.0x<br />

1.6x<br />

2.5x<br />

1.4x<br />

1.2x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

0.8x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.6x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

1.0x<br />

0.8x<br />

0.7x<br />

0.9x<br />

0.6x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.4x<br />

(0.2x)<br />

(0.4x)<br />

(0.6x)<br />

(0.8x)<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

(1.0x) (0.9x)<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EH765568 Corp At Maturity Senior Secured Rs 30,000.0 30,000.0 100.00 02-Mar-2009 02-Mar-2019 11.20% 12<br />

EJ021605 Corp Sink Secured Rs 15,000.0 15,000.0 100.00 07-Feb-2012 07-Feb-2019 11.25% 12<br />

EJ021617 Corp At Maturity Secured Rs 5,000.0 5,000.0 100.00 07-Feb-2012 07-Feb-2017 11.60% 1<br />

282 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (Rs)<br />

121<br />

101<br />

81<br />

61<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

41<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Reliance Communications Limited


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (Rs m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 217,000 192,820 202,767 211,878 220,327<br />

Operating Expenses (140,200) (138,920) (143,010) (150,189) (156,432)<br />

EBITDA 84,110 57,850 67,657 71,169 74,323<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (65,040) (39,780) (37,991) (38,770) (38,903)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 19,070 18,070 29,666 32,399 35,420<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (8,410) (14,370) (20,185) (18,451) (16,506)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 580 4,820 (1,200) (1,500) (1,500)<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 15,170 8,820 8,296 12,465 17,433<br />

Taxes on Profit (120) 1,060 (692) (2,044) (5,656)<br />

Minority Interests (1,500) (610) (762) (1,044) (1,181)<br />

Other Post-tax Items (100) 10 20 24 29<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 13,450 9,280 6,862 9,400 10,625<br />

Balance Sheet (Rs m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 392,870 435,510 453,000 458,917 458,944<br />

Long-term Investments 1,090 1,230 1,230 1,230 1,230<br />

Associates 90 100 120 144 173<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 202,110 279,100 255,396 231,474 207,792<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 789,550 807,900 779,951 751,093 722,028<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 111,300 114,760 118,065 126,699 125,117<br />

Total Current Assets 164,480 125,450 128,874 140,114 146,957<br />

Total Assets 954,030 933,350 908,825 891,207 868,985<br />

Shareholders' Equity 404,990 367,210 373,626 382,415 392,349<br />

Total Equity 413,230 375,810 382,988 392,822 403,937<br />

Long Term Debt 193,130 296,460 285,800 259,848 207,488<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 217,780 333,500 322,840 296,888 244,528<br />

Total Current Liabilities 323,020 224,040 202,996 201,497 220,521<br />

Total Liabilities 540,800 557,540 525,836 498,385 465,049<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 954,030 933,350 908,825 891,207 868,985<br />

Cash Flow Statement (Rs m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 15,170 8,820 8,296 12,465 17,433<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 65,040 39,780 37,991 38,770 38,903<br />

Tax Paid (800) 810 (545) (1,220) (3,216)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (60,470) (6,740) (6,106) (2,567) (1,398)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 24,340 57,510 63,286 69,381 71,709<br />

Capital Expenditure (103,270) (48,500) (15,000) (15,000) (15,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 38,530 2,390 2,588 3,927 4,608<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (64,580) (45,710) (12,325) (10,994) (10,222)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 96,350 (33,160) (28,875) (34,508) (32,876)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (2,020) (1,190) (600) (446) (611)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 80,710 (54,970) (53,248) (56,983) (53,663)<br />

Change in Cash 40,470 (43,170) (2,286) 1,404 7,824<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 38.8% 30.0% 33.4% 33.6% 33.7%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 8.8% 9.4% 14.6% 15.3% 16.1%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 6.2% 4.8% 3.4% 4.4% 4.8%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 3.2% 2.4% 1.9% 2.5% 2.7%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 2.1% 2.0% 3.2% 3.6% 4.0%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 2.6% 2.3% 3.5% 3.6% 3.3%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 94.6% 101.9% 92.5% 81.4% 71.0%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 82.8% 100.5% 91.6% 80.2% 67.9%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 225.1% 244.4% 248.7% 238.1% 227.2%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 2.4x 0.4x 0.8x 0.8x 0.8x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 1.4x 1.1x 1.2x 1.5x 1.8x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 15.1% 2.5% 1.6% 2.3% 5.6%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 50.9% 56.0% 63.5% 69.5% 66.6%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 49.3% 53.5% 60.6% 66.4% 63.7%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

283 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Rio Tinto (RIO AU)<br />

Sector: Materials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Materials<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 8.3x<br />

Country: Australia<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 35.3%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 4.9x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Rio Tinto is a diversified, multinational mining and resources group with headquarters in London and<br />

Melbourne. The group is the fourth largest natural resource player in the world based on revenues and<br />

has its operations spread across 50 countries with a major presence in Australia and North America. Rio<br />

Tinto’s operations encompass diverse commodity businesses that can be categorised into five principal<br />

product groups – aluminium, copper, diamonds and minerals, energy and iron-ore, and two support<br />

groups – technology and innovation and exploration.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (US$ m) 9,948 9,670 6,201 5,402 12,411<br />

Gross Debt (US$ m) 16,109 21,804 24,357 23,486 21,364<br />

Interest Expense (US$ m) (778) (497) (698) (773) (738)<br />

EBIT (US$ m) 19,311 22,756 17,562 20,427 20,880<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 25.0% 36.8% 35.3% 29.1% 23.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 129.7% 110.9% 70.1% 92.0% 124.7%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.9x 0.7x 1.1x 0.9x 0.8x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.4x 18.1x 8.3x 3.4x 3.0x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 24.8x 45.8x 25.1x 26.4x 28.3x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (US$ m) 55,171 60,537 56,752 61,393 63,823<br />

% Change (YoY) 31.9% 9.7% (6.3%) 8.2% 4.0%<br />

EBITDA (US$ m) 22,748 26,573 21,522 25,504 26,441<br />

% of Sales 41.2% 43.9% 37.9% 41.5% 41.4%<br />

Net Income (US$ m) 14,238 5,826 11,215 12,793 13,215<br />

% of Sales 25.8% 9.6% 19.8% 20.8% 20.7%<br />

Free Cash Flow (US$ m) 13,686 7,695 746 4,215 13,456<br />

% of Sales 24.8% 12.7% 1.3% 6.9% 21.1%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 4,233 9,948 9,670 6,201 5,402<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 13,686 7,695 746 4,215 13,456<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 17,919 17,643 10,416 10,416 18,858<br />

Principal Repayments 11,307 496 1,447 5,071 6,121<br />

Interest Payments 778 497 698 773 738<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 12,085 993 2,145 5,844 6,860<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.5x 17.8x 4.9x 1.8x 2.7x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In US$ m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 9,670 30.9%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 30,418 97.2%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 40,088 128.2%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 6,000 19.2%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 46,088 147.3%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 31,281 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

43.5% 43.7% 41.7%<br />

56.5% 56.3% 58.3%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(US$ m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 28,277 31,354 32,822<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 21,804 24,357 23,486<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

20.0x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

20.0x<br />

18.0x<br />

16.0x<br />

14.0x<br />

12.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

17.8x<br />

6.0x<br />

4.9x<br />

4.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

1.8x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EH437867 Corp Callable Company Guarantee US$ 2,500.0 587.0 99.63 27-Jun-2008 15-Jul-2013 5.88% 2<br />

EH791566 Corp Callable Company Guarantee US$ 2,000.0 2,000.0 98.81 17-Apr-2009 01-May-2014 8.95% 2<br />

EH437855 Corp Callable Company Guarantee US$ 1,750.0 1,750.0 99.13 27-Jun-2008 15-Jul-2018 6.50% 2<br />

284 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (A$)<br />

15.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

81<br />

71<br />

61<br />

51<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

41<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Rio Tinto


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (US$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 55,171 60,537 56,752 61,393 63,823<br />

Operating Expenses (32,423) (33,964) (35,230) (35,889) (37,382)<br />

EBITDA 22,748 26,573 21,522 25,504 26,441<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (3,437) (3,817) (3,960) (5,077) (5,561)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 19,311 22,756 17,562 20,427 20,880<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (615) (382) (497) (602) (504)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 401 (372) (438) (294) (294)<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 1,101 704 929 1,015 1,103<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 20,491 13,214 16,397 18,878 19,547<br />

Taxes on Profit (5,296) (6,439) (3,919) (4,664) (4,864)<br />

Minority Interests (860) (939) (1,262) (1,421) (1,468)<br />

Other Post-tax Items (97) (10) 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 14,238 5,826 11,215 12,793 13,215<br />

Balance Sheet (US$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 48,943 49,742 62,182 68,174 70,346<br />

Long-term Investments 6,855 9,833 13,297 14,530 15,784<br />

Associates 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 21,016 16,142 15,719 15,239 14,787<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 91,314 97,647 112,558 116,962 118,555<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 11,511 12,228 14,317 17,455 21,734<br />

Total Current Assets 21,459 21,898 20,518 22,858 34,145<br />

Total Assets 112,773 119,545 133,076 139,819 152,700<br />

Shareholders' Equity 58,247 52,539 61,497 72,400 83,542<br />

Total Equity 64,512 59,208 68,924 80,680 92,703<br />

Long Term Debt 13,693 20,357 20,286 19,414 17,293<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 35,385 45,371 43,132 40,799 37,696<br />

Total Current Liabilities 12,876 14,966 21,020 18,341 22,301<br />

Total Liabilities 48,261 60,337 64,152 59,140 59,997<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 112,773 119,545 133,076 139,819 152,700<br />

Cash Flow Statement (US$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 20,491 13,214 16,397 18,878 19,547<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 3,437 3,817 3,960 5,077 5,561<br />

Tax Paid (4,100) (6,197) (3,527) (4,197) (4,864)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (825) 347 1,209 (5,608) (932)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 18,277 20,030 16,588 12,910 19,711<br />

Capital Expenditure (4,591) (12,335) (15,841) (8,695) (6,255)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 2,893 (3,736) 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (1,711) (16,838) (20,219) (10,957) (8,518)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (9,360) 4,208 2,553 (871) (2,121)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 92 (5,456) 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (1,754) (2,236) (2,401) (1,890) (2,073)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (10,610) (3,426) 162 (2,752) (4,184)<br />

Change in Cash 5,956 (234) (3,469) (799) 7,008<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 41.2% 43.9% 37.9% 41.5% 41.4%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 35.0% 37.6% 30.9% 33.3% 32.7%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 25.8% 9.6% 19.8% 20.8% 20.7%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 27.9% 10.5% 19.7% 19.1% 16.9%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 18.5% 19.7% 14.1% 15.1% 14.4%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 17.5% 13.6% 14.6% 15.2% 14.8%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 25.0% 36.8% 35.3% 29.1% 23.0%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 9.6% 20.5% 26.3% 22.4% 9.7%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 205.7% 209.7% 221.5% 203.8% 187.6%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.4x 18.1x 8.3x 3.4x 3.0x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 24.8x 45.8x 25.1x 26.4x 28.3x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 77.3% 64.6% 29.5% 29.5% 55.7%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 166.7% 146.3% 97.6% 124.6% 153.1%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 129.7% 110.9% 70.1% 92.0% 124.7%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

285 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. (005930 KS)<br />

Sector: Information Technology Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Semiconductors & Semiconductor Debt Service Cover (x) 30.5x<br />

Country: Korea<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 11.8%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 23.2x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd is consumer electronics’ company which is focused on selling,<br />

manufacturing and distributing its digital electronic products as well as components. The Company is<br />

domiciled in Korea and it has numerous subsidiaries across the globe connecting it to the various parts<br />

of world.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (KW m) 22,479,963 26,877,635 34,998,488 59,547,398 77,218,946<br />

Gross Debt (KW m) 10,775,374 14,646,610 14,716,087 13,782,382 10,865,232<br />

Interest Expense (KW m) (582,292) (641,462) (1,460,714) (1,306,376) (1,208,180)<br />

EBIT (KW m) 16,621,030 15,454,900 29,128,276 36,490,869 41,681,345<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 12.1% 14.4% 11.8% 8.9% 5.8%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 120.3% 125.9% 148.0% 172.9% 218.1%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.4x 0.4x 0.3x 0.3x 0.2x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 29.6x 14.0x 30.5x 21.1x 12.3x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 28.5x 24.1x 19.9x 27.9x 34.5x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (KW m) 154,630,328 165,001,771 200,823,741 226,152,278 250,914,658<br />

% Change (YoY) 13.4% 6.7% 21.7% 12.6% 10.9%<br />

EBITDA (KW m) 28,014,926 29,046,964 45,657,506 55,288,618 62,037,218<br />

% of Sales 18.1% 17.6% 22.7% 24.4% 24.7%<br />

Net Income (KW m) 15,599,505 13,249,004 23,641,419 29,543,432 33,989,474<br />

% of Sales 10.1% 8.0% 11.8% 13.1% 13.5%<br />

Free Cash Flow (KW m) 947,640 288,545 7,749,385 25,884,767 21,540,405<br />

% of Sales 0.6% 0.2% 3.9% 11.4% 8.6%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 20,883,463 22,479,963 26,877,635 34,998,488 59,547,398<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 947,640 288,545 7,749,385 25,884,767 21,540,405<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 21,831,103 22,768,508 34,627,020 60,883,256 81,087,802<br />

Principal Repayments 304,074 1,145,167 30,523 1,033,705 3,017,150<br />

Interest Payments 582,292 641,462 1,460,714 1,306,376 1,208,180<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 886,366 1,786,629 1,491,237 2,340,081 4,225,330<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 24.6x 12.7x 23.2x 26.0x 19.2x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In KW m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 26,877,635 250.2%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 121,154,251 1,127.8%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 148,031,886 1,378.0%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 148,031,886 1,378.0%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 10,742,451 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(KW m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

137,949,15 198,360,32 201,097,22<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity<br />

3<br />

2<br />

6<br />

Preferred Stock 119,467 119,467 119,467<br />

Debt 14,646,610 14,716,087 13,782,382<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

35.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

30.0x<br />

24.6x<br />

25.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EI279615 Corp At Maturity Senior Unsecured KW 500,000.0 500,000.0 100.00 40346 41442 4.71% 4<br />

EI873113 Corp At Maturity Senior Unsecured KW 500,000.0 500,000.0 100.00 40864 41960 4.08% 4<br />

EI873117 Corp At Maturity Senior Unsecured KW 200,000.0 200,000.0 100.00 40864 42691 4.23% 4<br />

286 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (KW)<br />

9.6%<br />

0.1%<br />

90.3%<br />

6.9%<br />

0.1%<br />

93.0%<br />

6.4%<br />

0.1%<br />

93.5%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Preferred Stock Debt<br />

20.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

18,63,600<br />

16,63,600<br />

14,63,600<br />

12,63,600<br />

10,63,600<br />

12.7x<br />

23.2x<br />

26.0x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

8,63,600<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (KW m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 154,630,328 165,001,771 200,823,74 226,152,27 250,914,658<br />

Operating Expenses (126,615,402) (135,954,807) (155,166,23 (170,863,6 (188,877,440<br />

EBITDA 28,014,926 29,046,964 45,657,506 55,288,618 62,037,218<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (11,393,896) (13,592,064) (16,529,230 (18,797,74 (20,355,873)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 16,621,030 15,454,900 29,128,276 36,490,869 41,681,345<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (22,978) 61,520 140,004 596,582 1,261,134<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 340,153 (726,227) 722,616 857,062 861,568<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 2,267,091 1,399,194 920,417 970,672 1,023,670<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 19,328,656 17,159,015 30,911,312 38,915,185 44,827,717<br />

Taxes on Profit (3,182,131) (3,424,948) (6,500,538) (8,417,475) (9,748,308)<br />

Minority Interests (347,490) (374,875) (659,091) (823,438) (947,144)<br />

Other Post-tax Items (199,530) (110,188) (110,265) (130,840) (142,791)<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 15,599,505 13,249,004 23,641,419 29,543,432 33,989,474<br />

Balance Sheet (KW m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 44,720,767 55,061,478 64,066,604 70,830,851 76,058,006<br />

Long-term Investments 3,040,206 3,223,598 1,792,500 996,630 554,126<br />

Associates 8,335,290 9,204,169 9,706,717 10,236,703 10,795,627<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 2,779,439 3,355,236 3,470,879 3,558,884 3,625,855<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 72,886,155 84,129,191 93,119,863 100,371,43 106,502,129<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 38,922,626 44,624,428 55,022,880 55,143,255 66,413,740<br />

Total Current Assets 61,402,589 71,502,063 90,021,368 114,690,65 143,632,686<br />

Total Assets 134,288,744 155,631,254 183,141,23 215,062,08 250,134,815<br />

Shareholders' Equity 85,470,092 97,480,298 120,397,10 149,228,95 182,369,690<br />

Total Equity 89,349,091 101,845,323 125,146,37 154,458,29 188,151,215<br />

Long Term Debt 1,221,719 4,962,596 4,028,891 1,111,741 1,139,019<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 4,994,932 9,466,917 8,533,212 5,616,062 5,643,340<br />

Total Current Liabilities 39,944,721 44,319,014 49,461,642 54,987,727 56,340,261<br />

Total Liabilities 44,939,653 53,785,931 57,994,854 60,603,789 61,983,601<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 134,288,744 155,631,254 183,141,23 215,062,08 250,134,815<br />

Cash Flow Statement (KW m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 19,328,656 17,159,015 30,911,312 38,915,185 44,827,717<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 11,393,896 13,592,064 16,529,230 18,797,748 20,355,873<br />

Tax Paid (2,135,287) (3,977,408) (5,628,418) (7,650,484) (9,171,406)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (5,668,035) (4,057,345) (7,660,192) 2,252,304 (8,012,855)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 23,826,779 22,917,901 33,649,385 51,784,767 47,440,405<br />

Capital Expenditure (22,879,139) (22,629,356) (25,900,000 (25,900,00 (25,900,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 2,026,817 664,428 1,703,142 945,493 524,777<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (23,984,877) (21,112,564) (24,196,858 (24,954,50 (25,375,223)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 1,701,728 3,757,554 69,477 (933,705) (2,917,150)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 184,291 160,827 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (1,917,637) (874,608) (834,880) (842,417) (991,532)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (152,295) 3,109,729 (1,040,244) (2,119,496) (4,303,641)<br />

Change in Cash (310,393) 4,915,066 8,412,283 24,710,765 17,761,541<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 18.1% 17.6% 22.7% 24.4% 24.7%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 10.7% 9.4% 14.5% 16.1% 16.6%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 10.1% 8.0% 11.8% 13.1% 13.5%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 20.1% 14.5% 21.7% 21.9% 20.5%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 13.9% 11.1% 17.7% 19.0% 18.7%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 22.0% 16.3% 25.6% 28.6% 30.1%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 12.1% 14.4% 11.8% 8.9% 5.8%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 1.1% - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 159.1% 158.5% 155.5% 147.7% 140.3%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 29.6x 14.0x 30.5x 21.1x 12.3x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 28.5x 24.1x 19.9x 27.9x 34.5x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 24.5% 33.2% 46.7% 87.0% 116.4%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 153.7% 161.3% 182.0% 208.6% 254.9%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 120.3% 125.9% 148.0% 172.9% 218.1%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

287 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Santos Ltd. (STO AU)<br />

Sector: Energy Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Energy<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 2.8x<br />

Country: Australia<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 46.7%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 2.2x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Santos Limited (Santos) is primarily engaged in the exploration, development and production of natural<br />

gas, crude oil, condensate, naphtha and liquefied natural gas. The company is one of the largest natural<br />

gas producers in Australia and currently supplies approximately 16% of Australia’s gas needs. The<br />

company also has exploratory and production assets in Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, India,<br />

Bangladesh, Egypt, Vietnam and Kyrgyzstan. In 2011, the company produced 47.2 mmboe (million<br />

barrels of oil equivalent) of oil & gas and had a 2P reserves base of 1,364 mmboe, out of which<br />

approximately 85% was natural gas.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (A$ m) 4,319 3,332 1,944 2,007 1,916<br />

Gross Debt (A$ m) 3,157 3,261 4,295 5,432 6,569<br />

Interest Expense (A$ m) (133) (99) (84) (92) (160)<br />

EBIT (A$ m) 623 774 1,005 1,071 1,239<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 41.5% 36.4% 46.7% 57.5% 67.6%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 310.2% 293.2% 186.0% 221.6% 178.9%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 2.0x 2.3x 2.1x 2.6x 2.9x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.8x 1.3x 2.8x 4.5x 4.6x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 2.6x 1.8x 3.0x 3.5x 3.7x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (A$ m) 2,228 2,530 3,226 3,210 3,493<br />

% Change (YoY) 2.2% 13.6% 27.5% (0.5%) 8.8%<br />

EBITDA (A$ m) 1,223 1,415 1,766 1,845 2,035<br />

% of Sales 54.9% 55.9% 54.8% 57.5% 58.3%<br />

Net Income (A$ m) 500 753 558 616 686<br />

% of Sales 22.4% 29.8% 17.3% 19.2% 19.6%<br />

Free Cash Flow (A$ m) (434) (1,658) (2,212) (774) (816)<br />

% of Sales (19.5%) (65.5%) (68.6%) (24.1%) (23.4%)<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 2,240 4,319 3,332 1,944 2,007<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (434) (1,658) (2,212) (774) (816)<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 1,806 2,661 1,120 1,170 1,190<br />

Principal Repayments 272 385 169 66 66<br />

Interest Payments 244 440 335 302 332<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 516 825 504 368 398<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 3.5x 3.2x 2.2x 3.2x 3.0x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In A$ m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 3,332 89.6%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation (1,525) (41.0%)<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 1,807 48.6%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 4,191 112.7%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 5,998 161.4%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 3,717 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(A$ m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 11,560 10,484 10,739<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 3,261 4,295 5,432<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

4.0x<br />

3.5x<br />

3.5x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EI409652 Corp Callable Company Guarantee EUR 1,000.0 1,000.0 100.00 22-Sep-2010 22-Sep-2070 8.25% 2<br />

288 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

22.0%<br />

78.0%<br />

29.1% 33.6%<br />

70.9% 66.4%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

5.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.5x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.5x<br />

2.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (A$)<br />

3.0x<br />

2.5x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

16.59<br />

14.59<br />

12.59<br />

10.59<br />

3.2x<br />

2.2x<br />

3.2x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

8.59<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Santos Ltd.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (A$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 2,228 2,530 3,226 3,210 3,493<br />

Operating Expenses (1,083) (1,213) (1,560) (1,467) (1,567)<br />

EBITDA 1,223 1,415 1,766 1,845 2,035<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (600) (641) (761) (773) (796)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 623 774 1,005 1,071 1,239<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 45 134 107 70 4<br />

Other Income/(Expense) (32) (43) (58) (63) (66)<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits (2) (9) 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 793 1,282 983 1,008 1,108<br />

Taxes on Profit (295) (531) (425) (392) (422)<br />

Minority Interests 2 2 0 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 500 753 558 616 686<br />

Balance Sheet (A$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 6,424 7,675 7,867 7,609 10,083<br />

Long-term Investments 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Associates 208 0 0 0 0<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 8,498 11,062 13,707 15,078 16,581<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 952 1,420 1,648 1,353 1,848<br />

Total Current Assets 5,271 4,752 3,593 3,359 3,764<br />

Total Assets 13,769 15,814 17,300 18,437 20,345<br />

Shareholders' Equity 7,605 8,967 9,207 9,453 9,729<br />

Total Equity 7,603 8,963 9,203 9,449 9,725<br />

Long Term Debt 2,787 3,092 4,229 5,366 6,504<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 4,551 5,327 6,393 7,584 8,775<br />

Total Current Liabilities 1,615 1,524 1,704 1,404 1,845<br />

Total Liabilities 6,166 6,851 8,097 8,988 10,620<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 13,769 15,814 17,300 18,437 20,345<br />

Cash Flow Statement (A$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 793 1,282 983 1,008 1,108<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 600 641 761 773 796<br />

Tax Paid (229) (662) (459) (399) (420)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 41 (3) (52) (11) (70)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 1,266 1,162 1,288 1,436 1,394<br />

Capital Expenditure (1,700) (2,820) (3,500) (2,210) (2,210)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 782 1,103 60 62 60<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (877) (1,952) (3,308) (2,049) (2,052)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 1,596 (31) 1,034 1,137 1,137<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 490 96 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (316) (155) (318) (370) (410)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 1,697 (189) 632 676 567<br />

Change in Cash 2,086 (979) (1,388) 62 (91)<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 54.9% 55.9% 54.8% 57.5% 58.3%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 28.0% 30.6% 31.2% 33.4% 35.5%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 22.4% 29.8% 17.3% 19.2% 19.6%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 6.9% 9.1% 6.1% 6.6% 7.1%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 6.1% 6.5% 6.9% 6.5% 6.9%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 4.9% 4.7% 4.6% 4.5% 4.8%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 41.5% 36.4% 46.7% 57.5% 67.6%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - 25.5% 36.3% 47.9%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 172.5% 178.5% 182.2% 191.5% 202.2%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.8x 1.3x 2.8x 4.5x 4.6x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 2.6x 1.8x 3.0x 3.5x 3.7x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 267.4% 218.6% 114.1% 142.9% 103.8%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 326.4% 311.8% 210.9% 239.3% 204.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 310.2% 293.2% 186.0% 221.6% 178.9%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

289 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Sembcorp Industries Ltd (SCI SP)<br />

Sector: Industrials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Capital Goods<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 4.3x<br />

Country: Singapore<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 45.3%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 13.7x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Sembcorp Industries Ltd is an engineering service company that operates through three business<br />

divisions: Marine/Offshore Engineering, Utilities, and Industrial Parks. The group was established in<br />

1988 as a highly diversified conglomerate engaged in almost every business, including restaurants and<br />

cinemas. It underwent 8 years of restructuring after which its businesses were re-aligned into the above<br />

mentioned three broad categories.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (S$ m) 3,525 3,020 4,029 4,934 4,705<br />

Gross Debt (S$ m) 1,602 2,042 2,656 2,656 2,156<br />

Interest Expense (S$ m) (46) (62) (90) (103) (88)<br />

EBIT (S$ m) 1,180 1,066 1,049 1,528 1,432<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 31.9% 39.0% 45.3% 38.5% 27.5%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 128.4% 111.9% 127.8% 107.5% 125.8%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.9x 1.4x 1.8x 1.5x 1.4x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 2.1x 11.1x 4.3x 1.7x 1.0x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 25.8x 17.3x 11.7x 14.9x 16.3x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (S$ m) 8,764 9,047 9,959 14,027 14,020<br />

% Change (YoY) (8.4%) 3.2% 10.1% 40.9% (0.1%)<br />

EBITDA (S$ m) 1,421 1,300 1,307 1,795 1,708<br />

% of Sales 16.2% 14.4% 13.1% 12.8% 12.2%<br />

Net Income (S$ m) 940 934 885 1,185 1,193<br />

% of Sales 10.7% 10.3% 8.9% 8.4% 8.5%<br />

Free Cash Flow (S$ m) 1,073 (77) 760 1,311 755<br />

% of Sales 12.2% (0.8%) 7.6% 9.3% 5.4%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 2,598 3,525 3,020 4,029 4,934<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 1,073 (77) 760 1,311 755<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 3,671 3,448 3,780 5,340 5,688<br />

Principal Repayments 538 51 186 800 1,300<br />

Interest Payments 46 62 90 103 88<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 584 112 276 903 1,388<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 6.3x 30.7x 13.7x 5.9x 4.1x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In S$ m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 3,020 60.6%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 4,435 88.9%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 7,455 149.5%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 7,193 144.2%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 14,648 293.7%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 4,987 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

22.0% 22.0% 21.8%<br />

78.0% 78.0% 78.2%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(S$ m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 7,255 9,405 9,531<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 2,042 2,656 2,656<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

12.0x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

35.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EI202759 Corp At Maturity Company Guarantee S$ 300.0 300.0 100.00 09-Apr-2010 09-Apr-2020 3.73% 2<br />

EH786765 Corp At Maturity Company Guarantee S$ 200.0 200.0 100.00 21-Apr-2009 21-Apr-2014 5.00% 2<br />

EI386786 Corp At Maturity Company Guarantee S$ 100.0 100.0 100.00 01-Sep-2010 01-Sep-2017 1.14% 2<br />

290 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (S$)<br />

10.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

30.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

6.3x<br />

30.7x<br />

13.7x<br />

5.9x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

6.94<br />

6.44<br />

5.94<br />

5.44<br />

4.94<br />

4.44<br />

3.94<br />

3.44<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Sembcorp Industries Ltd


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (S$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 8,764 9,047 9,959 14,027 14,020<br />

Operating Expenses (7,343) (7,747) (8,652) (12,232) (12,312)<br />

EBITDA 1,421 1,300 1,307 1,795 1,708<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (241) (234) (258) (267) (275)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 1,180 1,066 1,049 1,528 1,432<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (29) 0 (17) (13) 9<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 170 157 101 181 198<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 160 171 168 231 293<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 1,514 1,395 1,302 1,927 1,932<br />

Taxes on Profit (194) (125) (168) (301) (300)<br />

Minority Interests (380) (337) (249) (441) (439)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 940 934 885 1,185 1,193<br />

Balance Sheet (S$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 2,631 2,727 2,691 2,645 2,588<br />

Long-term Investments 325 145 160 176 193<br />

Associates 1,034 1,345 1,537 1,795 2,121<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 312 332 337 342 347<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 5,527 6,536 7,171 7,864 8,615<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 1,840 2,197 1,921 3,518 2,073<br />

Total Current Assets 5,364 5,217 5,949 8,452 6,778<br />

Total Assets 10,892 11,753 13,120 16,316 15,393<br />

Shareholders' Equity 3,815 4,115 4,574 5,328 5,968<br />

Total Equity 5,020 5,241 5,862 6,903 7,829<br />

Long Term Debt 1,553 1,856 2,256 2,156 1,656<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 2,407 2,814 3,275 3,252 2,845<br />

Total Current Liabilities 3,464 3,697 3,983 6,161 4,720<br />

Total Liabilities 5,871 6,512 7,258 9,412 7,564<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 10,892 11,753 13,120 16,316 15,393<br />

Cash Flow Statement (S$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 1,514 1,395 1,302 1,927 1,932<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 241 234 258 267 275<br />

Tax Paid (132) (85) (88) (130) (164)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 341 (321) 286 289 (83)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 1,702 975 1,469 2,020 1,463<br />

Capital Expenditure (629) (1,052) (709) (709) (708)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (210) (193) (26) (30) (36)<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (761) (1,143) (790) (787) (794)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 410 426 614 0 (500)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 14 (38) 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (415) (623) (390) (446) (555)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (30) (323) 199 (470) (1,049)<br />

Change in Cash 911 (491) 878 764 (380)<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 16.2% 14.4% 13.1% 12.8% 12.2%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 13.5% 11.8% 10.5% 10.9% 10.2%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 10.7% 10.3% 8.9% 8.4% 8.5%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 26.3% 23.5% 20.4% 23.9% 21.1%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 12.0% 10.0% 9.0% 11.0% 9.6%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 45.2% 30.7% 24.2% 34.1% 30.6%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 31.9% 39.0% 45.3% 38.5% 27.5%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 283.4% 285.6% 286.3% 297.3% 280.7%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 2.1x 11.1x 4.3x 1.7x 1.0x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 25.8x 17.3x 11.7x 14.9x 16.3x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 100.7% 81.0% 97.2% 75.3% 90.2%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 154.8% 141.1% 149.4% 137.2% 143.6%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 128.4% 111.9% 127.8% 107.5% 125.8%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

291 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Sembcorp Marine Ltd (SMM SP)<br />

Sector: Industrials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Capital Goods<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 14.6x<br />

Country: Singapore<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 8.9%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 69.9x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Sembcorp Marine is a global marine and offshore engineering group, specialising in a full spectrum of<br />

integrated solutions in ship repair, shipbuilding, ship conversion, rig building and offshore engineering<br />

and construction. Its operations are strategically located in Singapore, China, Brazil and the USA. The<br />

company’s Singapore hub consists of Jurong Shipyard, Sembawang Shipyard, PPL Shipyard, SMOE<br />

Pte Ltd and Jurong SML. Its overseas yards are located in Brazil (Estaleiro Jurong Aracruz), India<br />

(Sembmarine Kakinada Ltd) and United States (Sembcorp-Sabine Shipyard Inc.).<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (S$ m) 2,915 1,990 2,015 2,465 2,299<br />

Gross Debt (S$ m) 8 35 200 100 0<br />

Interest Expense (S$ m) (3) (3) (3) (3) (1)<br />

EBIT (S$ m) 943 737 565 1,038 911<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 0.3% 1.4% 8.9% 3.7% 0.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 128.6% 103.0% 97.4% 69.6% 117.2%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.0x 0.0x 0.2x 0.1x 0.0x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 51.2x 70.4x 14.6x 9.3x 8.5x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 328.4x 267.4x 192.2x 346.2x 910.9x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (S$ m) 4,555 3,960 4,179 7,973 7,313<br />

% Change (YoY) (20.4%) (13.1%) 5.5% 90.8% (8.3%)<br />

EBITDA (S$ m) 1,026 823 659 1,146 1,029<br />

% of Sales 22.5% 20.8% 15.8% 14.4% 14.1%<br />

Net Income (S$ m) 860 752 524 931 828<br />

% of Sales 18.9% 19.0% 12.5% 11.7% 11.3%<br />

Free Cash Flow (S$ m) 1,284 (112) 668 1,104 677<br />

% of Sales 28.2% (2.8%) 16.0% 13.8% 9.3%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 1,979 2,915 1,990 2,015 2,465<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 1,284 (112) 668 1,104 677<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 3,263 2,803 2,658 3,119 3,142<br />

Principal Repayments 14 8 35 100 100<br />

Interest Payments 3 3 3 3 1<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 17 11 38 103 101<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 190.9x 260.6x 69.9x 30.3x 31.1x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In S$ m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 1,990 822.0%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 4,086 1,688.0%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 6,075 2,509.9%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 6,075 2,509.9%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 242 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

292 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

0.4%<br />

99.6%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(S$ m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 7,937 9,558 9,745<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 35 200 100<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

80.0x<br />

400.0x<br />

70.0x<br />

350.0x<br />

60.0x<br />

300.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

250.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

200.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

150.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

100.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

300.0x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

250.0x<br />

200.0x<br />

150.0x<br />

100.0x<br />

2.0%<br />

98.0%<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Share Price (S$)<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

1.0%<br />

99.0%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

50.0x<br />

190.9x<br />

260.6x<br />

69.9x<br />

30.3x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

6.75<br />

6.25<br />

5.75<br />

5.25<br />

4.75<br />

4.25<br />

3.75<br />

3.25<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Sembcorp Marine Ltd<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (S$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 4,555 3,960 4,179 7,973 7,313<br />

Operating Expenses (3,550) (3,156) (3,551) (6,866) (6,319)<br />

EBITDA 1,026 823 659 1,146 1,029<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (83) (86) (94) (107) (118)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 943 737 565 1,038 911<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 22 57 32 50 55<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 56 2 2 3 3<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 58 63 61 84 100<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 1,078 860 659 1,175 1,068<br />

Taxes on Profit (184) (91) (112) (200) (182)<br />

Minority Interests (34) (17) (23) (44) (58)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 860 752 524 931 828<br />

Balance Sheet (S$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 627 609 767 831 876<br />

Long-term Investments 287 127 127 127 127<br />

Associates 307 380 441 525 624<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 6 37 37 37 37<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 1,379 1,653 1,823 1,917 2,036<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 985 1,409 1,091 3,518 781<br />

Total Current Assets 3,900 3,399 3,106 5,983 3,080<br />

Total Assets 5,279 5,052 4,929 7,900 5,116<br />

Shareholders' Equity 2,599 2,414 2,145 2,543 2,655<br />

Total Equity 2,687 2,506 2,256 2,689 2,847<br />

Long Term Debt 0 0 200 100 0<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 143 145 345 244 144<br />

Total Current Liabilities 2,449 2,400 2,329 4,967 2,125<br />

Total Liabilities 2,592 2,546 2,674 5,211 2,269<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 5,279 5,052 4,929 7,900 5,116<br />

Cash Flow Statement (S$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 1,078 860 659 1,175 1,068<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 83 86 94 107 118<br />

Tax Paid (145) (170) (96) (131) (148)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 376 (418) 264 140 (140)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 1,358 326 868 1,216 807<br />

Capital Expenditure (73) (438) (200) (112) (130)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 1 (40) 3 4 4<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (72) (477) (210) (124) (145)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (12) 27 165 (100) (100)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 16 (29) 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (328) (763) (798) (542) (728)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (323) (765) (633) (642) (828)<br />

Change in Cash 962 (916) 26 450 (166)<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 22.5% 20.8% 15.8% 14.4% 14.1%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 20.7% 18.6% 13.5% 13.0% 12.5%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 18.9% 19.0% 12.5% 11.7% 11.3%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 38.4% 30.0% 23.0% 39.7% 31.9%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 19.5% 15.4% 12.0% 17.0% 14.8%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) - - 452.5% - -<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 0.3% 1.4% 8.9% 3.7% 0.0%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 222.3% 206.1% 218.9% 273.6% 250.4%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 51.2x 70.4x 14.6x 9.3x 8.5x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 328.4x 267.4x 192.2x 346.2x 910.9x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 119.0% 82.9% 86.5% 49.6% 108.2%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 159.3% 141.6% 133.4% 120.5% 145.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 128.6% 103.0% 97.4% 69.6% 117.2%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

293 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. (981 HK)<br />

Sector: Information Technology Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Semiconductors & Semiconductor Debt Service Cover (x) 0.6x<br />

Country: Hong Kong<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 44.5%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.3x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) is a holding company, headquartered in<br />

China. The Company is engaged in the computer-aided design, manufacturing, packaging, testing and<br />

trading of integrated circuits and other semiconductor services, as well as manufacturing and designing<br />

of semiconductor masks.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (US$ '000) 515,808 261,615 441,660 159,355 127,729<br />

Gross Debt (US$ '000) 969,812 929,077 997,222 622,472 480,573<br />

Interest Expense (US$ '000) (22,563) (20,583) (25,573) (21,675) (14,037)<br />

EBIT (US$ '000) 58,154 (172,516) 4,573 5,301 25,448<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 43.9% 41.3% 44.5% 27.9% 21.4%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 69.0% 52.5% 69.9% 58.0% 66.4%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 1.6x 2.5x 1.6x 1.3x 0.8x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.7x 0.3x 0.6x 0.7x 0.9x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 2.6x - 0.2x 0.2x 1.8x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (US$ '000) 1,532,449 1,319,466 1,683,336 1,895,857 2,185,165<br />

% Change (YoY) 47.7% (13.9%) 27.6% 12.6% 15.3%<br />

EBITDA (US$ '000) 669,564 377,774 599,829 638,032 688,380<br />

% of Sales 43.7% 28.6% 35.6% 33.7% 31.5%<br />

Net Income (US$ '000) 13,100 (311,786) (8,786) (10,261) 14,719<br />

% of Sales 0.9% (23.6%) (0.5%) (0.5%) 0.7%<br />

Free Cash Flow (US$ '000) 181,393 (583,391) 83,978 63,898 81,005<br />

% of Sales 11.8% (44.2%) 5.0% 3.4% 3.7%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 451,647 515,808 261,615 441,660 159,355<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 181,393 (583,391) 83,978 63,898 81,005<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 633,040 (67,582) 345,593 505,558 240,360<br />

Principal Repayments 965,867 1,369,318 1,063,201 875,470 641,899<br />

Interest Payments 22,563 20,583 25,573 21,675 14,037<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 988,431 1,389,901 1,088,774 897,145 655,935<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.6x 0.0x 0.3x 0.6x 0.4x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In US$ '000)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 261,615 6.7%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 845,189 21.7%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 1,106,805 28.5%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 312 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 1,107,116 28.5%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 3,888,937 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

294 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

41.2%<br />

58.8%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(US$ '000) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 1,327,069 1,586,791 1,710,349<br />

Preferred Stock 178 0 0<br />

Debt 929,077 997,222 622,472<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

0.8x<br />

3.0x<br />

0.7x<br />

0.6x<br />

2.5x<br />

0.5x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.4x<br />

1.5x<br />

0.3x<br />

0.2x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.1x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

0.7x 0.6x<br />

0.6x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.6x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.3x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.1x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.3x<br />

(0.1x) 2010A 2011A<br />

(0.0x)<br />

2012F 2013F<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

38.6%<br />

61.4%<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

26.7%<br />

73.3%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

0.55<br />

0.50<br />

0.45<br />

0.40<br />

0.35<br />

0.30<br />

0.25<br />

0.20<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp.<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (US$ '000) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 1,532,449 1,319,466 1,683,336 1,895,857 2,185,165<br />

Operating Expenses (879,377) (948,702) (1,083,507) (1,257,825) (1,496,785)<br />

EBITDA 669,564 377,774 599,829 638,032 688,380<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (611,410) (550,290) (595,255) (632,731) (662,932)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 58,154 (172,516) 4,573 5,301 25,448<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (18,477) (15,858) (21,176) (17,739) (11,513)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) (18,180) 24,298 (3,000) 0 0<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 285 4,479 2,157 2,177 3,381<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 16,548 (177,798) (17,445) (10,261) 17,316<br />

Taxes on Profit 4,818 (82,503) 10,000 0 (2,597)<br />

Minority Interests (910) (1,257) (1,340) 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items (7,356) (50,229) 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 13,100 (311,786) (8,786) (10,261) 14,719<br />

Balance Sheet (US$ '000)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 1,639,884 1,924,617 1,922,788 1,863,496 1,741,888<br />

Long-term Investments 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Associates 9,844 19,613 21,770 23,947 26,821<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 252,619 256,510 229,798 207,065 187,720<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 2,723,591 2,863,143 2,804,745 2,707,442 2,487,795<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 663,294 603,171 849,523 702,647 1,105,025<br />

Total Current Assets 1,179,102 864,787 1,291,183 862,002 1,232,754<br />

Total Assets 3,902,693 3,727,929 4,095,927 3,569,444 3,720,549<br />

Shareholders' Equity 2,169,537 2,244,637 2,236,030 2,225,769 2,240,488<br />

Total Equity 2,208,542 2,249,015 2,241,570 2,231,309 2,246,028<br />

Long Term Debt 234,923 100,921 258,119 152,119 46,119<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 294,806 227,589 384,788 278,788 172,788<br />

Total Current Liabilities 1,399,345 1,251,326 1,469,570 1,059,347 1,301,734<br />

Total Liabilities 1,694,152 1,478,914 1,854,358 1,338,135 1,474,521<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 3,902,693 3,727,929 4,095,927 3,569,444 3,720,549<br />

Cash Flow Statement (US$ '000)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 16,548 (177,798) (17,445) (10,261) 17,316<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 611,410 550,290 595,255 632,731 662,932<br />

Tax Paid (3,445) (3,193) 0 0 (507)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 27,355 26,019 47,457 696 (136,173)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 694,613 398,353 647,945 626,416 550,684<br />

Capital Expenditure (513,220) (981,743) (563,967) (562,518) (469,679)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 38,649 6,285 29,267 29,267 29,267<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (583,713) (922,626) (534,700) (533,251) (440,412)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (239,191) (42,968) 66,799 (375,470) (141,899)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 201,340 311,823 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (37,851) 268,855 66,799 (375,470) (141,899)<br />

Change in Cash 73,048 (255,418) 180,044 (282,305) (31,626)<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 43.7% 28.6% 35.6% 33.7% 31.5%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 3.8% (13.1%) 0.3% 0.3% 1.2%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 0.9% (23.6%) (0.5%) (0.5%) 0.7%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 0.7% (14.1%) (0.4%) (0.5%) 0.7%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 1.7% (4.4%) 0.2% 0.2% 0.8%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 2.2% (6.0%) 0.2% 0.2% 0.8%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 43.9% 41.3% 44.5% 27.9% 21.4%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 20.6% 29.7% 24.8% 20.8% 15.7%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 187.3% 172.9% 174.6% 171.8% 163.2%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.7x 0.3x 0.6x 0.7x 0.9x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 2.6x - 0.2x 0.2x 1.8x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 36.9% 20.9% 30.1% 15.0% 9.8%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 84.3% 69.1% 87.9% 81.4% 94.7%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 69.0% 52.5% 69.9% 58.0% 66.4%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

295 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Shanghai Electric Group Co., Ltd. – H Share (2727 HK)<br />

Sector: Industrials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Capital Goods<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 3.5x<br />

Country: China<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 9.1%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 14.0x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Shanghai Electric Group Company Limited, a subsidiary of state owned Shanghai Electric Corporation,<br />

is principally engaged in the design, manufacture and distribution of electric power and industrial<br />

equipment in the domestic as well as overseas markets. The Company’s major products are electric<br />

power equipments, including wind power generator sets, nuclear power and nuclear island devices,<br />

power distribution and transmission devices; industrial equipments, including elevators, machine tools,<br />

electrical motors, printing and packaging equipments, railway transportation devices and screen door<br />

products.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (RMB m) 26,777 26,911 25,327 31,957 34,470<br />

Gross Debt (RMB m) 2,417 2,386 3,701 3,099 2,318<br />

Interest Expense (RMB m) (108) (159) (122) (136) (108)<br />

EBIT (RMB m) 3,392 4,863 6,065 6,496 7,145<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 7.0% 6.3% 9.1% 6.9% 4.7%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 93.6% 93.6% 98.2% 100.1% 103.0%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.6x 0.4x 0.4x 0.4x 0.3x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 8.0x 10.8x 3.5x 9.3x 8.3x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 31.3x 30.7x 49.8x 47.8x 66.0x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (RMB m) 62,957 67,918 73,782 79,148 86,709<br />

% Change (YoY) 9.3% 7.9% 8.6% 7.3% 9.6%<br />

EBITDA (RMB m) 4,617 6,114 7,526 8,073 8,844<br />

% of Sales 7.3% 9.0% 10.2% 10.2% 10.2%<br />

Net Income (RMB m) 2,784 3,267 3,946 4,170 4,528<br />

% of Sales 4.4% 4.8% 5.3% 5.3% 5.2%<br />

Free Cash Flow (RMB m) 1,391 (1,421) (1,695) 7,447 3,513<br />

% of Sales 2.2% (2.1%) (2.3%) 9.4% 4.1%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 22,066 26,777 26,911 25,327 31,957<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 1,391 (1,421) (1,695) 7,447 3,513<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 23,457 25,356 25,216 32,774 35,470<br />

Principal Repayments 445 352 1,685 602 781<br />

Interest Payments 108 159 122 136 108<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 554 510 1,807 738 889<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 42.4x 49.7x 14.0x 44.4x 39.9x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In RMB m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 26,911 594.0%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 21,482 474.2%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 48,392 1,068.2%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 48,392 1,068.2%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 4,530 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(RMB m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 53,212 43,065 43,065<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 2,386 3,701 3,099<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

12.0x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

60.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EJ384182 Corp At Maturity Unsecured RMB 3,500.0 3,500.0 100.00 10-Oct-2012 10-Oct-2013 4.39% 1<br />

EJ314702 Corp At Maturity Unsecured RMB 3,000.0 3,000.0 100.00 15-Aug-2012 15-Aug-2013 3.87% 1<br />

EH834257 Corp At Maturity Unsecured RMB 2,000.0 2,000.0 100.00 26-May-2009 26-May-2014 3.74% 1<br />

296 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

4.3%<br />

95.7%<br />

7.9%<br />

92.1%<br />

6.7%<br />

93.3%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

10.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

60.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

50.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

42.4x<br />

49.7x<br />

14.0x<br />

44.4x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

5.23<br />

4.73<br />

4.23<br />

3.73<br />

3.23<br />

2.73<br />

2.23<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Shanghai Electric Group Co., Ltd. – H Share


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (RMB m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 62,957 67,918 73,782 79,148 86,709<br />

Operating Expenses (58,340) (61,803) (66,256) (71,075) (77,865)<br />

EBITDA 4,617 6,114 7,526 8,073 8,844<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (1,226) (1,252) (1,461) (1,577) (1,699)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 3,392 4,863 6,065 6,496 7,145<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 87 83 78 89 158<br />

Other Income/(Expense) (1,359) (1,176) (1,379) (1,407) (1,464)<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 814 734 773 786 802<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 4,025 5,091 6,291 6,725 7,410<br />

Taxes on Profit (228) (715) (1,029) (1,165) (1,372)<br />

Minority Interests (1,014) (1,109) (1,315) (1,390) (1,509)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 2,784 3,267 3,946 4,170 4,528<br />

Balance Sheet (RMB m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 10,673 12,086 12,596 13,475 14,089<br />

Long-term Investments 309 681 681 681 681<br />

Associates 3,196 3,312 3,624 3,928 4,225<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 700 786 761 707 627<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 21,367 22,773 24,860 26,781 27,518<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 50,068 57,032 58,404 58,883 61,014<br />

Total Current Assets 76,844 83,942 83,731 90,840 95,484<br />

Total Assets 98,212 106,715 108,591 117,621 123,002<br />

Shareholders' Equity 27,002 29,257 31,829 34,990 38,440<br />

Total Equity 34,502 37,656 40,885 44,741 48,946<br />

Long Term Debt 2,021 701 3,099 2,318 1,537<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 2,831 1,675 4,064 3,274 2,487<br />

Total Current Liabilities 60,878 67,385 63,642 69,606 71,569<br />

Total Liabilities 63,709 69,059 67,706 72,880 74,057<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 98,212 106,715 108,591 117,621 123,002<br />

Cash Flow Statement (RMB m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 4,025 5,091 6,291 6,725 7,410<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 1,226 1,252 1,461 1,577 1,699<br />

Tax Paid (722) (740) (1,075) (1,120) (1,246)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (373) (5,944) (3,292) 5,018 (687)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 4,820 847 1,925 11,047 6,093<br />

Capital Expenditure (3,430) (2,268) (3,620) (3,600) (2,580)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 735 40 409 452 491<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (4,358) (708) (2,391) (2,275) (1,157)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (154) 91 1,315 (602) (781)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 2,221 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (755) (835) (1,374) (1,009) (1,078)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 2,366 (168) (1,117) (2,142) (2,422)<br />

Change in Cash 2,829 (29) (1,584) 6,630 2,514<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 7.3% 9.0% 10.2% 10.2% 10.2%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 5.4% 7.2% 8.2% 8.2% 8.2%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 4.4% 4.8% 5.3% 5.3% 5.2%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 11.3% 11.6% 12.9% 12.5% 12.3%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 3.8% 4.9% 5.8% 5.9% 6.2%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 42.0% 47.6% 39.0% 38.2% 46.4%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 7.0% 6.3% 9.1% 6.9% 4.7%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 379.6% 364.3% 352.5% 338.5% 327.7%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 8.0x 10.8x 3.5x 9.3x 8.3x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 31.3x 30.7x 49.8x 47.8x 66.0x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 31.1% 28.3% 27.5% 34.7% 37.2%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 126.2% 124.6% 131.6% 130.5% 133.4%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 93.6% 93.6% 98.2% 100.1% 103.0%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

297 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Shoprite Holdings Limited (SHP SJ)<br />

Sector: Consumer Staples Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Food & Staples Retailing<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 6.4x<br />

Country: South Africa<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 37.3%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 8.9x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Shoprite Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, operates as a fast moving consumer goods<br />

(FMCG) retailer in the African continent through its subsidiaries. It operates in 17 countries across Africa<br />

and the Indian Ocean Islands. The Company's headquarter is situated in the Western Cape province of<br />

South Africa.<br />

The company is listed on the JSE Limited (Bloomberg Code: SHP SJ), with secondary listings on both<br />

the Namibian and Zambian Stock Exchanges.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 30 Jun) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (ZAR m) 2,008 7,956 9,749 11,554 13,888<br />

Gross Debt (ZAR m) 2,092 4,058 5,568 6,851 7,902<br />

Interest Expense (ZAR m) (126) (126) (450) (454) (539)<br />

EBIT (ZAR m) 3,987 4,665 5,558 6,563 7,584<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 29.3% 31.7% 37.3% 39.7% 39.6%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 35.0% 85.2% 89.8% 85.2% 93.6%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.3x 0.5x 0.7x 0.8x 0.8x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 39.6x 1.9x 6.4x 5.2x 4.7x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 31.6x 37.1x 12.4x 14.5x 14.1x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (ZAR m) 72,298 82,731 95,472 109,825 125,271<br />

% Change (YoY) 7.3% 14.4% 15.4% 15.0% 14.1%<br />

EBITDA (ZAR m) 4,993 5,865 7,005 8,188 9,372<br />

% of Sales 6.9% 7.1% 7.3% 7.5% 7.5%<br />

Net Income (ZAR m) 2,510 3,027 3,603 4,271 4,972<br />

% of Sales 3.5% 3.7% 3.8% 3.9% 4.0%<br />

Free Cash Flow (ZAR m) (1,462) 217 (113) 335 1,072<br />

% of Sales (2.0%) 0.3% (0.1%) 0.3% 0.9%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 2,265 2,008 7,956 9,749 11,554<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (1,462) 217 (113) 335 1,072<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 803 2,225 7,842 10,084 12,626<br />

Principal Repayments 0 2,019 433 757 989<br />

Interest Payments 126 126 450 454 539<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 126 2,145 883 1,211 1,528<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 6.4x 1.0x 8.9x 8.3x 8.3x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In ZAR m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 7,956 109.0%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 5,623 77.1%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 13,579 186.1%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 6,621 90.7%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 20,200 276.8%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 7,297 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

298 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4.8% 4.8%<br />

95.2% 95.2%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(ZAR m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 80,630 109,667 109,667<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 4,058 5,568 6,851<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

45.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

35.0x<br />

35.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

10.0x<br />

9.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

8.9x<br />

8.3x<br />

7.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

6.4x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

2011A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (ZAr)<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

5.9%<br />

94.1%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

24,856<br />

22,856<br />

20,856<br />

18,856<br />

16,856<br />

14,856<br />

12,856<br />

10,856<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Shoprite Holdings Limited<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (ZAR m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 72,298 82,731 95,472 109,825 125,271<br />

Operating Expenses (69,160) (79,191) (91,301) (105,216) (120,457)<br />

EBITDA 4,993 5,865 7,005 8,188 9,372<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (1,006) (1,200) (1,446) (1,625) (1,788)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 3,987 4,665 5,558 6,563 7,584<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (31) (81) (86) (134) (157)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 17 (10) (30) (30) (30)<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 3,876 4,482 5,337 6,311 7,319<br />

Taxes on Profit (1,347) (1,439) (1,714) (2,017) (2,319)<br />

Minority Interests (20) (16) (20) (23) (27)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 2,510 3,027 3,603 4,271 4,972<br />

Balance Sheet (ZAR m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 8,169 9,669 10,888 12,170 13,225<br />

Long-term Investments 64 4 4 4 4<br />

Associates 0 104 104 104 104<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 719 894 962 1,055 1,145<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 9,288 11,095 12,382 13,757 14,902<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 9,408 11,855 12,754 16,135 16,960<br />

Total Current Assets 11,416 19,811 22,503 27,689 30,848<br />

Total Assets 20,704 30,906 34,885 41,446 45,750<br />

Shareholders' Equity 7,085 12,745 14,862 17,202 19,885<br />

Total Equity 7,143 12,808 14,926 17,267 19,951<br />

Long Term Debt 26 4,007 3,916 3,946 3,977<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 1,110 5,040 4,984 5,057 5,128<br />

Total Current Liabilities 12,450 13,058 14,976 19,122 20,671<br />

Total Liabilities 13,560 18,098 19,959 24,179 25,799<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 20,704 30,906 34,885 41,446 45,750<br />

Cash Flow Statement (ZAR m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 3,876 4,482 5,337 6,311 7,319<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 1,006 1,200 1,446 1,625 1,788<br />

Tax Paid (1,031) (1,885) (1,674) (1,998) (2,300)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (1,324) 649 (232) (70) 165<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 1,544 3,335 3,317 4,085 4,822<br />

Capital Expenditure (3,005) (3,118) (3,430) (3,750) (3,750)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 65 76 194 217 241<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (2,937) (3,007) (3,236) (3,533) (3,509)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 9 10 (19) (24) 0<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 3,410 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (1,216) (1,434) (1,641) (1,952) (2,314)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 9 3,420 (19) (24) 0<br />

Change in Cash (1,384) 3,748 62 528 1,313<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 6.9% 7.1% 7.3% 7.5% 7.5%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 5.5% 5.6% 5.8% 6.0% 6.1%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 3.5% 3.7% 3.8% 3.9% 4.0%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 38.6% 30.5% 26.1% 26.6% 26.8%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 21.1% 18.6% 17.7% 18.0% 18.3%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 37.7% 35.0% 35.0% 35.3% 36.3%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 29.3% 31.7% 37.3% 39.7% 39.6%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 1.8% - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 297.9% 260.3% 238.3% 238.1% 235.1%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 39.6x 1.9x 6.4x 5.2x 4.7x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 31.6x 37.1x 12.4x 14.5x 14.1x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 15.8% 60.8% 65.0% 60.3% 67.1%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 91.7% 151.7% 150.3% 144.8% 149.2%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 35.0% 85.2% 89.8% 85.2% 93.6%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

299 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Siam Cement Limited (SCC TB)<br />

Sector: Materials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Materials<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.4x<br />

Country: Thailand<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 76.3%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.1x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Established in 1913, Siam Cement Public Company Limited is one of Thailand’s leading conglomerates.<br />

The company was established as a cement company but over the years, the company diversified its<br />

business model and currently, it runs six core business units - Chemicals, Paper, Cement, Building<br />

Materials, Distribution and Investments.The company operates through more than 200 subsidiaries and<br />

affiliate companies and manages more than 64,000 products. Exports from Thailand account for a little<br />

over one fourth of the company’s revenue, while domestic sales account for almost two-thirds of its<br />

revenue.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (THB m) 69,827 29,885 36,319 42,646 62,066<br />

Gross Debt (THB m) 153,252 162,268 131,240 128,187 111,622<br />

Interest Expense (THB m) (7,083) (6,976) (6,022) (5,454) (4,922)<br />

EBIT (THB m) 23,082 19,630 16,418 26,368 34,318<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 96.0% 99.6% 76.3% 68.1% 53.6%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 125.8% 70.4% 93.6% 112.6% 104.0%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 4.3x 4.8x 5.4x 3.4x 2.6x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.1x 0.6x 0.4x 1.7x 1.4x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 3.3x 2.8x 2.7x 4.8x 7.0x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (THB m) 301,323 368,579 409,902 424,304 446,800<br />

% Change (YoY) 26.3% 22.3% 11.2% 3.5% 5.3%<br />

EBITDA (THB m) 35,620 32,605 27,420 38,031 46,591<br />

% of Sales 11.8% 8.8% 6.7% 9.0% 10.4%<br />

Net Income (THB m) 37,382 27,281 21,558 31,330 38,583<br />

% of Sales 12.4% 7.4% 5.3% 7.4% 8.6%<br />

Free Cash Flow (THB m) 14,409 9,543 26,234 18,976 50,902<br />

% of Sales 4.8% 2.6% 6.4% 4.5% 11.4%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 28,937 69,827 29,885 36,319 42,646<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 14,409 9,543 26,234 18,976 50,902<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 43,347 79,370 56,119 55,295 93,548<br />

Principal Repayments 18,940 36,214 46,171 14,187 23,127<br />

Interest Payments 7,083 6,976 6,022 5,454 4,922<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 26,023 43,190 52,193 19,640 28,049<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.7x 1.8x 1.1x 2.8x 3.3x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In THB m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 29,885 20.1%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 182,076 122.2%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 211,961 142.3%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 5,400 3.6%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 217,361 145.9%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 148,958 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

300 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

30.2%<br />

69.8%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(THB m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 375,600 528,000 535,200<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 162,268 131,240 128,187<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

1.8x<br />

6.0x<br />

1.6x<br />

1.4x<br />

5.0x<br />

1.2x<br />

4.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.8x<br />

3.0x<br />

0.6x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.2x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

3.0x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

19.9% 19.3%<br />

80.1% 80.7%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

2.5x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

1.7x<br />

1.8x<br />

1.1x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Share Price (THB)<br />

515<br />

465<br />

415<br />

365<br />

315<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

2.8x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

265<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Siam Cement Limited<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (THB m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 301,323 368,579 409,902 424,304 446,800<br />

Operating Expenses (265,703) (335,974) (382,482) (386,273) (400,209)<br />

EBITDA 35,620 32,605 27,420 38,031 46,591<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (12,538) (12,975) (11,002) (11,662) (12,273)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 23,082 19,630 16,418 26,368 34,318<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (4,213) (4,411) (4,941) (4,133) (3,218)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 23,888 9,151 8,190 8,122 8,413<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 8,390 6,774 1,115 4,839 4,471<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 51,218 31,250 20,892 35,309 44,100<br />

Taxes on Profit (13,959) (7,504) (4,923) (6,827) (9,025)<br />

Minority Interests 123 3,535 5,589 2,848 3,508<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 37,382 27,281 21,558 31,330 38,583<br />

Balance Sheet (THB m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 138,255 141,995 150,995 151,486 150,060<br />

Long-term Investments 13,735 28,867 29,012 29,164 29,323<br />

Associates 40,708 55,747 34,563 31,936 29,509<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 4,798 6,522 9,704 14,145 20,343<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 218,197 257,974 239,235 240,123 242,727<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 71,195 86,879 89,657 93,418 93,609<br />

Total Current Assets 141,022 116,764 125,975 136,064 155,675<br />

Total Assets 359,219 374,738 365,210 376,187 398,402<br />

Shareholders' Equity 133,117 140,199 154,890 173,973 197,473<br />

Total Equity 159,570 162,969 172,070 188,209 208,202<br />

Long Term Debt 112,497 97,995 102,730 92,312 76,309<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 116,566 105,318 113,292 106,148 92,646<br />

Total Current Liabilities 83,082 106,452 79,848 81,831 97,553<br />

Total Liabilities 199,649 211,770 193,140 187,978 190,199<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 359,219 374,738 365,210 376,187 398,402<br />

Cash Flow Statement (THB m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 51,218 31,250 20,892 35,309 44,100<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 12,538 12,975 11,002 11,662 12,273<br />

Tax Paid (5,590) (6,152) (3,640) (4,915) (6,559)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (5,783) (7,473) 5,184 (11,519) 13,142<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 28,129 22,953 36,143 28,926 60,860<br />

Capital Expenditure (13,720) (13,409) (9,909) (9,950) (9,958)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 28,900 (33,545) 22,812 7,995 7,436<br />

Cash Flow from Investing 21,896 (46,093) 11,661 (4,867) (7,208)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 3,867 5,067 (31,028) (3,054) (16,564)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (12,190) (18,068) (5,459) (10,082) (13,458)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (15,135) (18,007) (41,371) (17,731) (34,232)<br />

Change in Cash 34,890 (41,147) 6,434 6,328 19,420<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 11.8% 8.8% 6.7% 9.0% 10.4%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 7.7% 5.3% 4.0% 6.2% 7.7%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 12.4% 7.4% 5.3% 7.4% 8.6%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 31.5% 20.0% 14.6% 19.1% 20.8%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 7.0% 5.8% 4.7% 7.4% 9.3%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 8.7% 7.3% 5.8% 9.7% 12.4%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 96.0% 99.6% 76.3% 68.1% 53.6%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 56.0% 85.7% 59.4% 49.3% 27.3%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 284.1% 268.5% 250.8% 225.4% 208.5%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.1x 0.6x 0.4x 1.7x 1.4x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 3.3x 2.8x 2.7x 4.8x 7.0x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 76.8% 21.3% 36.5% 43.3% 56.2%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 169.7% 109.7% 157.8% 166.3% 159.6%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 125.8% 70.4% 93.6% 112.6% 104.0%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

301 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Siemens India Ltd. (SIEM IN)<br />

Sector: Industrials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Capital Goods<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 25.2x<br />

Country: India<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 0.0%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 72.0x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Siemens Ltd. is the Indian arm of Germany's conglomerate Siemens AG.The company was formally<br />

incorporated in 1957 as 'Siemens Engineering & Manufacturing Company of India Private Ltd' although it<br />

was operating in India since 1907. The Siemens Group in India is a unique player in the field of electrical<br />

and electronics engineering, manufacturing products as diverse as turbines, medical equipment, power<br />

plants and hearing aids. The company has complete range of offerings in all areas of its operation which<br />

can be broadly classified into three segments viz, Industry, Energy and Healthcare.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 30 Sep) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Rs m) 22,095 17,521 17,816 20,893 27,212<br />

Gross Debt (Rs m) 3 0 0 0 0<br />

Interest Expense (Rs m) (41) 0 (270) 0 0<br />

EBIT (Rs m) 10,280 10,337 4,784 6,927 11,287<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 119.5% 122.1% 117.7% 126.8% 131.3%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.0x 0.0x - - -<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 251.8x 3,147.4x 25.2x - -<br />

Interest Cover (x) 248.7x - 17.7x - -<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (Rs m) 96,201 119,547 127,081 124,456 146,281<br />

% Change (YoY) 3.6% 24.3% 6.3% (2.1%) 17.5%<br />

EBITDA (Rs m) 11,967 11,877 6,794 9,221 13,773<br />

% of Sales 12.4% 9.9% 5.3% 7.4% 9.4%<br />

Net Income (Rs m) 7,578 8,677 3,431 6,556 9,885<br />

% of Sales 7.9% 7.3% 2.7% 5.3% 6.8%<br />

Free Cash Flow (Rs m) 7,036 (4,307) 1,877 4,286 6,777<br />

% of Sales 7.3% (3.6%) 1.5% 3.4% 4.6%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 16,606 22,095 17,521 17,816 20,893<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 7,036 (4,307) 1,877 4,286 6,777<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 23,642 17,788 19,398 22,102 27,670<br />

Principal Repayments 4 3 0 0 0<br />

Interest Payments 41 0 270 0 0<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 45 3 270 0 0<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 522.9x 7,006.1x 72.0x - -<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In Rs m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 17,521 6,500.2%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 36,587 13,573.9%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 54,108 20,074.1%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 54,108 20,074.1%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 270 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

302 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

100.0% 100.0% 100.0%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity<br />

(Rs m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 285,082 241,286 234,174<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 0 0 0<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

3500.0x<br />

300.0x<br />

3000.0x<br />

250.0x<br />

2500.0x<br />

200.0x<br />

2000.0x<br />

1500.0x<br />

150.0x<br />

1000.0x<br />

100.0x<br />

500.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

8000.0x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

7000.0x<br />

6000.0x<br />

5000.0x<br />

4000.0x<br />

3000.0x<br />

7006.1x<br />

2000.0x<br />

1000.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

522.9x<br />

72.0x 0<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Share Price (Rs)<br />

942<br />

842<br />

742<br />

642<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

542<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Siemens India Ltd.<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (Rs m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 96,201 119,547 127,081 124,456 146,281<br />

Operating Expenses (84,234) (107,669) (120,287) (115,235) (132,508)<br />

EBITDA 11,967 11,877 6,794 9,221 13,773<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (1,687) (1,540) (2,010) (2,293) (2,486)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 10,280 10,337 4,784 6,927 11,287<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 557 755 791 1,161 1,443<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 965 1,661 1,632 1,610 1,892<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 12,066 12,897 5,208 9,698 14,623<br />

Taxes on Profit (4,501) (4,220) (1,777) (3,142) (4,738)<br />

Minority Interests 12 0 0 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 7,578 8,677 3,431 6,556 9,885<br />

Balance Sheet (Rs m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 8,174 11,451 14,801 15,221 15,874<br />

Long-term Investments 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Associates 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 1,676 243 177 112 46<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 13,829 16,072 17,662 18,368 18,882<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 57,259 67,984 73,380 70,926 78,241<br />

Total Current Assets 79,354 85,505 91,196 91,819 105,453<br />

Total Assets 93,182 101,577 108,858 110,187 124,335<br />

Shareholders' Equity 32,797 38,162 39,222 43,877 50,895<br />

Total Equity 32,797 38,162 39,222 43,877 50,895<br />

Long Term Debt 3 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 3 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Current Liabilities 60,383 63,415 69,636 66,310 73,439<br />

Total Liabilities 60,385 63,415 69,636 66,310 73,439<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 93,182 101,577 108,858 110,187 124,335<br />

Cash Flow Statement (Rs m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 12,066 12,897 5,208 9,698 14,623<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 1,687 1,540 2,010 2,293 2,486<br />

Tax Paid (5,012) (5,319) (2,937) (3,563) (4,530)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 1,432 (7,814) 2,423 (13) (1,403)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 10,090 26 6,677 7,286 9,777<br />

Capital Expenditure (3,054) (4,333) (4,800) (3,000) (3,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (1,885) (1,334) 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (12,233) 1,971 (3,740) (1,839) (1,557)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (4) (3) 0 0 0<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (1,967) (1,961) (2,373) (2,371) (1,901)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (2,012) (1,963) (2,643) (2,371) (1,901)<br />

Change in Cash (4,156) 34 295 3,077 6,319<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 12.4% 9.9% 5.3% 7.4% 9.4%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 10.7% 8.6% 3.8% 5.6% 7.7%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 7.9% 7.3% 2.7% 5.3% 6.8%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 25.0% 24.5% 8.9% 15.8% 20.9%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 12.4% 11.5% 5.6% 7.4% 10.9%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 58.7% 44.4% 15.0% 21.1% 32.7%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 290.2% 274.5% 271.9% 263.6% 247.5%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 251.8x 3,147.4x 25.2x - -<br />

Interest Cover (x) 248.7x - 17.7x - -<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 31.1% 20.1% 18.7% 24.3% 30.6%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 131.4% 134.8% 131.0% 138.5% 143.6%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 119.5% 122.1% 117.7% 126.8% 131.3%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

303 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Siliconware Precision Industries (2325 TT)<br />

Sector: Information Technology Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Semiconductors & Semiconductor Debt Service Cover (x) 34.3x<br />

Country: Taiwan<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 27.9%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 40.3x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Siliconware Precision Industries Co. Ltd. was incorporated on May, 1984. The Company is engaged in<br />

Outsourcing Business to provide comprehensive semiconductor packaging and test services. Globally<br />

the Company is second largest in chip packaging and testing. The company also offers turnkey<br />

solutions ranging from design, manufacture, testing and shipment. The company assembles and tests<br />

chips for 3Cs industry.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (NT$ m) 16,815 16,511 18,618 13,852 19,509<br />

Gross Debt (NT$ m) 5,829 11,046 16,749 12,129 12,558<br />

Interest Expense (NT$ m) (11) (63) (139) (144) (123)<br />

EBIT (NT$ m) 6,376 5,090 6,449 8,134 9,633<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 9.5% 18.8% 27.9% 19.6% 19.7%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 167.3% 185.9% 150.4% 130.6% 143.7%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.2x 0.6x 0.8x 0.7x 0.6x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1,334.1x 234.8x 34.3x 3.5x 3.9x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 556.3x 81.1x 46.4x 56.3x 78.0x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (NT$ m) 63,857 61,237 65,028 71,877 77,224<br />

% Change (YoY) 7.7% (4.1%) 6.2% 10.5% 7.4%<br />

EBITDA (NT$ m) 15,290 14,736 17,263 19,821 21,899<br />

% of Sales 23.9% 24.1% 26.5% 27.6% 28.4%<br />

Net Income (NT$ m) 5,627 4,837 5,433 6,696 7,960<br />

% of Sales 8.8% 7.9% 8.4% 9.3% 10.3%<br />

Free Cash Flow (NT$ m) (915) 2,053 1,283 5,227 11,708<br />

% of Sales (1.4%) 3.4% 2.0% 7.3% 15.2%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 20,078 16,815 16,511 18,618 13,852<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (915) 2,053 1,283 5,227 11,708<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 19,163 18,868 17,794 23,845 25,561<br />

Principal Repayments 0 0 303 4,625 4,577<br />

Interest Payments 11 63 139 144 123<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 11 63 442 4,770 4,700<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1,672.0x 300.7x 40.3x 5.0x 5.4x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In NT$ m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 16,511 92.1%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 39,335 219.4%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 55,846 311.5%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 5,000 27.9%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 60,846 339.4%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 17,930 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

304 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

11.7%<br />

88.3%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

14.9%<br />

85.1%<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(NT$ m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 83,422 95,428 96,813<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 11,046 16,749 12,129<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

1600.0x<br />

600.0x<br />

1400.0x<br />

1200.0x<br />

500.0x<br />

1000.0x<br />

400.0x<br />

800.0x<br />

300.0x<br />

600.0x<br />

400.0x<br />

200.0x<br />

200.0x<br />

100.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

1800.0x<br />

1600.0x<br />

1400.0x<br />

1200.0x<br />

1000.0x<br />

800.0x<br />

600.0x<br />

1672.0x<br />

400.0x<br />

300.7x<br />

200.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

40.3x 5.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (NT$)<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

11.1%<br />

88.9%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

43<br />

38<br />

33<br />

28<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

23<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Siliconware Precision Industries<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (NT$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 63,857 61,237 65,028 71,877 77,224<br />

Operating Expenses (48,568) (46,501) (47,764) (52,056) (55,325)<br />

EBITDA 15,290 14,736 17,263 19,821 21,899<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (8,913) (9,646) (10,814) (11,687) (12,266)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 6,376 5,090 6,449 8,134 9,633<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 25 10 (54) (66) (43)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) (12) 444 150 0 0<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 6,390 5,544 6,545 8,067 9,590<br />

Taxes on Profit (763) (707) (1,113) (1,371) (1,630)<br />

Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 5,627 4,837 5,433 6,696 7,960<br />

Balance Sheet (NT$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 38,800 40,783 46,921 46,766 46,021<br />

Long-term Investments 6,336 5,131 5,131 5,131 5,131<br />

Associates 149 174 174 174 174<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 712 1,151 1,173 1,180 1,182<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 51,365 52,039 58,200 58,052 57,309<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 14,377 15,141 14,435 17,933 16,254<br />

Total Current Assets 31,192 31,652 33,053 31,786 35,764<br />

Total Assets 82,557 83,691 91,253 89,837 93,072<br />

Shareholders' Equity 61,296 58,795 59,928 61,795 63,803<br />

Total Equity 61,296 58,795 59,928 61,795 63,803<br />

Long Term Debt 4,368 9,532 11,155 6,777 6,400<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 4,717 10,014 11,636 7,259 6,881<br />

Total Current Liabilities 16,544 14,882 19,689 20,784 22,388<br />

Total Liabilities 21,261 24,896 31,325 28,043 29,270<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 82,557 83,691 91,253 89,837 93,072<br />

Cash Flow Statement (NT$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 6,390 5,544 6,545 8,067 9,590<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 8,913 9,646 10,814 11,687 12,266<br />

Tax Paid (885) (629) (958) (1,206) (1,461)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 525 (1,637) 1,438 (2,230) 2,513<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 14,407 13,035 17,683 16,227 22,708<br />

Capital Expenditure (15,321) (10,982) (16,400) (11,000) (11,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (761) (921) (574) (539) (523)<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (16,083) (11,903) (16,974) (11,539) (11,523)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 5,774 5,089 5,697 (4,625) 423<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 (964) 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (8,040) (4,987) (4,300) (4,829) (5,952)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (2,266) (924) 1,398 (9,454) (5,529)<br />

Change in Cash (3,942) 208 2,107 (4,765) 5,657<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 23.9% 24.1% 26.5% 27.6% 28.4%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 10.0% 8.3% 9.9% 11.3% 12.5%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 8.8% 7.9% 8.4% 9.3% 10.3%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 9.0% 8.1% 9.2% 11.0% 12.7%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 8.0% 6.2% 7.5% 9.1% 10.6%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 13.5% 9.6% 10.5% 12.4% 14.9%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 9.5% 18.8% 27.9% 19.6% 19.7%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 129.3% 138.4% 147.4% 148.8% 145.6%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1,334.1x 234.8x 34.3x 3.5x 3.9x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 556.3x 81.1x 46.4x 56.3x 78.0x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 93.8% 107.1% 91.7% 63.9% 84.6%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 188.5% 212.7% 167.9% 152.9% 159.7%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 167.3% 185.9% 150.4% 130.6% 143.7%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

305 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Singapore Airlines Ltd. (SIA SP)<br />

Sector: Industrials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Transportation<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 39.8x<br />

Country: Singapore<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 8.0%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 113.6x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Singapore Airlines is the flagship carrier of Singapore and one of the world's leading airlines. It is<br />

primarily engaged in passenger and cargo air transportation, engineering services and provision of other<br />

services like training of pilots, air charters and tour wholesaling. The major subsidiaries of the company<br />

are SIA Engineering Company Limited (SIAEC), Singapore Airlines Cargo Pte Ltd (SIA Cargo) and<br />

SilkAir (Singapore) Private Limited (SilkAir).<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Mar) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (S$ m) 7,832 5,328 5,521 6,189 6,622<br />

Gross Debt (S$ m) 2,039 1,078 1,075 1,075 1,075<br />

Interest Expense (S$ m) (69) (87) (48) (48) (48)<br />

EBIT (S$ m) 1,287 302 420 868 1,054<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 14.1% 8.2% 8.0% 7.7% 7.4%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 151.5% 131.1% 134.9% 145.6% 139.8%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.6x 0.8x 0.5x 0.4x 0.4x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 20.1x 1.6x 39.8x 53.8x 60.3x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 18.6x 3.5x 8.8x 18.2x 22.1x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (S$ m) 14,525 14,858 15,056 16,012 16,836<br />

% Change (YoY) 14.3% 2.3% 1.3% 6.3% 5.1%<br />

EBITDA (S$ m) 2,983 1,913 2,005 2,565 2,872<br />

% of Sales 20.5% 12.9% 13.3% 16.0% 17.1%<br />

Net Income (S$ m) 1,092 336 461 795 950<br />

% of Sales 7.5% 2.3% 3.1% 5.0% 5.6%<br />

Free Cash Flow (S$ m) 2,061 62 361 909 789<br />

% of Sales 14.2% 0.4% 2.4% 5.7% 4.7%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 4,613 7,832 5,328 5,521 6,189<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2,061 62 361 909 789<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 6,674 7,894 5,689 6,430 6,978<br />

Principal Repayments 64 962 2 0 0<br />

Interest Payments 69 87 48 48 48<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 134 1,049 50 48 48<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 50.0x 7.5x 113.6x 135.0x 146.5x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In S$ m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 5,328 1,015.0%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 2,478 472.0%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 7,805 1,487.1%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 1,021 194.5%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 8,826 1,681.5%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 525 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

7.8% 7.7% 7.7%<br />

92.2% 92.3% 92.3%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(S$ m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 12,674 12,850 12,850<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 1,078 1,075 1,075<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

160.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

7.5x<br />

2011A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EI310390 Corp At Maturity Unsecured S$ 500.0 500.0 100.00 09-Jul-2010 09-Jul-2020 3.22% 2<br />

EI414760 Corp At Maturity Unsecured S$ 300.0 300.0 100.00 30-Sep-2010 30-Sep-2015 2.15% 2<br />

306 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (S$)<br />

140.0x<br />

120.0x<br />

100.0x<br />

60.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

80.0x<br />

60.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

13.59<br />

12.59<br />

11.59<br />

10.59<br />

9.59<br />

50.0x<br />

113.6x<br />

135.0x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

8.59<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Singapore Airlines Ltd.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (S$ m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 14,525 14,858 15,056 16,012 16,836<br />

Operating Expenses (11,542) (12,945) (13,051) (13,447) (13,964)<br />

EBITDA 2,983 1,913 2,005 2,565 2,872<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (1,696) (1,612) (1,585) (1,698) (1,818)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 1,287 302 420 868 1,054<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (25) (7) 7 11 15<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 95 48 14 14 14<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 175 126 145 153 163<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 1,419 448 586 1,046 1,247<br />

Taxes on Profit (270) (51) (60) (163) (197)<br />

Minority Interests (57) (61) (66) (88) (100)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 1,092 336 461 795 950<br />

Balance Sheet (S$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 12,081 11,879 11,935 11,819 11,892<br />

Long-term Investments 35 374 374 374 374<br />

Associates 608 656 700 746 795<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 125 158 168 176 183<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 14,847 14,913 14,956 14,840 15,205<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 1,947 1,878 1,976 2,098 2,166<br />

Total Current Assets 9,779 7,206 7,497 8,287 8,787<br />

Total Assets 24,626 22,119 22,453 23,127 23,993<br />

Shareholders' Equity 14,204 12,893 13,153 13,681 14,245<br />

Total Equity 14,503 13,187 13,461 14,006 14,590<br />

Long Term Debt 1,076 1,011 1,011 1,011 711<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 3,891 3,667 3,667 3,667 3,367<br />

Total Current Liabilities 6,232 5,265 5,326 5,455 6,036<br />

Total Liabilities 10,123 8,932 8,993 9,121 9,403<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 24,626 22,119 22,453 23,127 23,993<br />

Cash Flow Statement (S$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 1,419 448 586 1,046 1,247<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 1,696 1,612 1,585 1,698 1,818<br />

Tax Paid (61) (395) (152) (157) (177)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 567 181 58 1 194<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 3,285 1,703 1,911 2,409 2,889<br />

Capital Expenditure (1,224) (1,641) (1,550) (1,500) (2,100)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 463 211 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (567) (1,580) (1,414) (1,355) (1,944)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 737 (961) (2) 0 0<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net (45) (272) 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (383) (1,557) (201) (267) (386)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 284 (2,884) (303) (386) (513)<br />

Change in Cash 3,003 (2,762) 193 668 433<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 20.5% 12.9% 13.3% 16.0% 17.1%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 8.9% 2.0% 2.8% 5.4% 6.3%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 7.5% 2.3% 3.1% 5.0% 5.6%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 7.9% 2.5% 3.5% 5.9% 6.8%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 5.6% 1.5% 2.1% 4.0% 4.7%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 8.8% 2.5% 3.6% 7.0% 8.5%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 14.1% 8.2% 8.0% 7.7% 7.4%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 170.6% 172.5% 171.1% 169.9% 168.7%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 20.1x 1.6x 39.8x 53.8x 60.3x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 18.6x 3.5x 8.8x 18.2x 22.1x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 119.3% 89.3% 91.9% 102.0% 99.3%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 156.9% 136.9% 140.8% 151.9% 145.6%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 151.5% 131.1% 134.9% 145.6% 139.8%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

307 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Singapore Post Ltd. (SPOST SP)<br />

Sector: Industrials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Transportation<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 16.0x<br />

Country: Singapore<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 74.0%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 66.1x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Singapore Post Limited (SingPost) is a leading provider of mail, logistics and retail solutions in Singapore<br />

and the Asia Pacific region. It is the designated Public Postal Licensee (PPL) for Singapore providing<br />

domestic and international postal services as well as end-to-end mail solutions such as data printing,<br />

letter-shopping, delivery and mailroom management.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Mar) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (S$ '000) 395,024 692,150 730,765 473,242 522,203<br />

Gross Debt (S$ '000) 503,009 505,719 505,719 205,719 205,719<br />

Interest Expense (S$ '000) (14,241) (12,541) (12,942) (10,743) (7,143)<br />

EBIT (S$ '000) 193,112 174,782 177,040 181,409 184,758<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 151.4% 76.6% 74.0% 29.0% 27.7%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 204.7% 324.3% 329.7% 225.2% 240.4%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 2.3x 2.4x 2.4x 1.7x 0.9x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 15.6x 16.4x 16.0x 0.6x 30.5x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 13.6x 13.9x 13.7x 16.9x 25.9x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (S$ '000) 565,847 578,518 619,456 645,015 667,681<br />

% Change (YoY) 7.7% 2.2% 7.1% 4.1% 3.5%<br />

EBITDA (S$ '000) 222,245 205,944 207,195 213,019 217,626<br />

% of Sales 39.3% 35.6% 33.4% 33.0% 32.6%<br />

Net Income (S$ '000) 160,966 140,751 141,172 144,831 150,678<br />

% of Sales 28.4% 24.3% 22.8% 22.5% 22.6%<br />

Free Cash Flow (S$ '000) 174,562 150,483 163,539 166,829 170,417<br />

% of Sales 30.8% 26.0% 26.4% 25.9% 25.5%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 390,220 395,024 692,150 730,765 473,242<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 174,562 150,483 163,539 166,829 170,417<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 564,782 545,507 855,689 897,595 643,658<br />

Principal Repayments 0 0 0 300,000 0<br />

Interest Payments 14,241 12,541 12,942 10,743 7,143<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 14,241 12,541 12,942 310,743 7,143<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 39.7x 43.5x 66.1x 2.9x 90.1x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In S$ '000)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 692,150 202.0%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 841,955 245.7%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 1,534,105 447.7%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 1,534,105 447.7%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 342,629 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(S$ '000) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 1,926,607 2,162,710 2,162,710<br />

Preferred Stock 346,826 346,826 346,826<br />

Debt 505,719 505,719 205,719<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

18.0x<br />

18.0x<br />

16.0x<br />

16.0x<br />

14.0x<br />

14.0x<br />

12.0x<br />

12.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

70.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2.9x<br />

2011A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EJ041316 Corp Perpetual Senior Unsecured S$ 350.0 350.0 100.00 02-Mar-2012 N.A. 4.25% 2<br />

EC927783 Corp At Maturity Unsecured S$ 300.0 300.0 100.00 11-Apr-2003 11-Apr-2013 3.13% 2<br />

EI198344 Corp At Maturity Unsecured S$ 200.0 200.0 100.00 30-Mar-2010 30-Mar-2020 3.50% 2<br />

308 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (S$)<br />

18.2%<br />

12.5%<br />

69.3%<br />

16.8%<br />

11.5%<br />

71.7%<br />

7.6%<br />

12.8%<br />

79.7%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Preferred Stock Debt<br />

60.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

39.7x<br />

43.5x<br />

66.1x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

1.39<br />

1.29<br />

1.19<br />

1.09<br />

0.99<br />

0.89<br />

0.79<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Singapore Post Ltd.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (S$ '000) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 565,847 578,518 619,456 645,015 667,681<br />

Operating Expenses (385,154) (414,917) (453,122) (473,266) (492,150)<br />

EBITDA 222,245 205,944 207,195 213,019 217,626<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (29,133) (31,162) (30,155) (31,610) (32,868)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 193,112 174,782 177,040 181,409 184,758<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (13,108) (13,193) (10,427) (6,785) (3,106)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 4,176 4,854 2,827 400 400<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits (549) 664 1,504 1,968 1,988<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 195,041 173,678 172,581 176,992 184,041<br />

Taxes on Profit (33,476) (31,645) (31,339) (32,089) (33,287)<br />

Minority Interests (599) (59) (71) (72) (75)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 (1,223) 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 160,966 140,751 141,172 144,831 150,678<br />

Balance Sheet (S$ '000)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 235,860 223,077 223,092 218,652 211,881<br />

Long-term Investments 19,285 14,316 13,366 13,366 13,366<br />

Associates 53,888 90,699 91,387 92,306 93,235<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 88,625 87,677 86,732 85,788 84,843<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 604,132 630,909 620,407 608,537 595,354<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 93,697 107,129 111,133 111,452 112,738<br />

Total Current Assets 488,721 799,279 841,898 584,694 634,941<br />

Total Assets 1,092,853 1,430,188 1,462,305 1,193,231 1,230,295<br />

Shareholders' Equity 326,148 312,984 336,229 363,086 395,580<br />

Total Equity 332,312 659,802 683,117 710,047 742,616<br />

Long Term Debt 503,009 505,719 505,719 205,719 205,719<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 522,262 524,508 524,508 224,508 224,508<br />

Total Current Liabilities 238,279 245,878 254,679 258,676 263,170<br />

Total Liabilities 760,541 770,386 779,187 483,184 487,678<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 1,092,853 1,430,188 1,462,305 1,193,231 1,230,295<br />

Cash Flow Statement (S$ '000)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 195,041 173,678 172,581 176,992 184,041<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 29,133 31,162 30,155 31,610 32,868<br />

Tax Paid (32,121) (33,480) (31,054) (31,556) (32,396)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (6,099) 3,463 4,498 3,967 3,786<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 186,883 176,629 183,539 185,829 189,417<br />

Capital Expenditure (12,321) (26,146) (20,000) (19,000) (19,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (89,811) (55,646) 263 290 311<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (98,109) (77,398) (15,004) (14,637) (15,129)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 0 0 0 (300,000) 0<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net (6,516) (35,047) 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (120,339) (119,107) (117,927) (117,974) (118,184)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (140,260) 179,392 (130,869) (428,716) (125,327)<br />

Change in Cash (51,486) 278,623 37,666 (257,524) 48,961<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 39.3% 35.6% 33.4% 33.0% 32.6%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 34.1% 30.2% 28.6% 28.1% 27.7%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 28.4% 24.3% 22.8% 22.5% 22.6%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 52.0% 44.0% 43.5% 41.4% 39.7%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 18.1% 14.1% 12.5% 13.9% 15.5%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 40.7% 37.0% 38.2% 40.8% 43.6%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 151.4% 76.6% 74.0% 29.0% 27.7%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 49.4% - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 350.2% 394.8% 445.5% 379.7% 319.4%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 15.6x 16.4x 16.0x 0.6x 30.5x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 13.6x 13.9x 13.7x 16.9x 25.9x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 142.2% 251.1% 257.2% 153.7% 169.6%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 205.1% 325.1% 330.6% 226.0% 241.3%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 204.7% 324.3% 329.7% 225.2% 240.4%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

309 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Singapore Telecommunications Limited (ST SP)<br />

Sector: Telecommunication Services Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Telecommunication Services Debt Service Cover (x) 8.6x<br />

Country: Singapore<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 39.2%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 5.6x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Singapore Telecommunications Limited (SingTel) is Asia’s leading communications group which<br />

provides a wide range of multimedia and infocomms technology (ICT) solutions, including voice, data<br />

and video services over fixed and wireless platforms. The company’s main operations are in Singapore<br />

and Australia. SingTel is also a major communications player in Asia and Africa through its strategic<br />

investments in six regional mobile operators, namely Bharti Airtel (India), Telkomsel (Indonesia), Globe<br />

Telecom (the Philippines), Advanced Info Service (Thailand), Warid Telecom (Pakistan) and PBTL<br />

(Bangladesh).<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Mar) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (S$ m) 2,738 1,346 1,914 1,591 968<br />

Gross Debt (S$ m) 7,286 8,794 9,688 9,054 8,420<br />

Interest Expense (S$ m) (348) (414) (485) (492) (459)<br />

EBIT (S$ m) 3,020 3,114 3,157 3,198 3,107<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 29.9% 37.5% 39.2% 34.7% 30.9%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 73.2% 101.4% 109.3% 98.2% 88.1%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 1.4x 1.6x 1.8x 1.8x 1.6x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.5x 0.9x 8.6x 4.3x 4.5x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 8.7x 7.5x 6.5x 6.5x 6.8x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (S$ m) 18,071 18,825 18,543 18,923 19,260<br />

% Change (YoY) 7.1% 4.2% (1.5%) 2.0% 1.8%<br />

EBITDA (S$ m) 4,989 5,116 5,214 5,282 5,323<br />

% of Sales 27.6% 27.2% 28.1% 27.9% 27.6%<br />

Net Income (S$ m) 3,825 3,989 3,791 3,968 3,972<br />

% of Sales 21.2% 21.2% 20.4% 21.0% 20.6%<br />

Free Cash Flow (S$ m) 2,818 2,423 1,990 2,594 2,437<br />

% of Sales 15.6% 12.9% 10.7% 13.7% 12.7%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 1,614 2,738 1,346 1,914 1,591<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2,818 2,423 1,990 2,594 2,437<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 4,431 5,161 3,336 4,508 4,028<br />

Principal Repayments 2,554 4,699 106 634 634<br />

Interest Payments 348 414 485 492 459<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 2,902 5,113 591 1,126 1,093<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.5x 1.0x 5.6x 4.0x 3.7x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In S$ m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 1,346 24.9%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 12,129 224.1%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 13,475 249.0%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 13,475 249.0%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 5,412 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

14.9% 15.4% 14.6%<br />

85.1% 84.6% 85.4%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(S$ m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 50,175 53,042 53,042<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 8,794 9,688 9,054<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

10.0x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

6.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EI400709 Corp At Maturity Company Guarantee EUR 700.0 700.0 99.57 15-Sep-2010 15-Sep-2020 3.50% 1<br />

EJ049070 Corp At Maturity Company Guarantee US$ 700.0 700.0 99.80 08-Mar-2012 08-Sep-2017 2.38% 2<br />

EI596565 Corp At Maturity Company Guarantee US$ 600.0 600.0 99.30 08-Mar-2011 08-Sep-2021 4.50% 2<br />

310 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (S$)<br />

8.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

5.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

4.08<br />

3.58<br />

3.08<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

5.6x<br />

4.0x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

2.58<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Singapore Telecommunications Limited


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (S$ m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 18,071 18,825 18,543 18,923 19,260<br />

Operating Expenses (13,082) (13,710) (13,329) (13,641) (13,937)<br />

EBITDA 4,989 5,116 5,214 5,282 5,323<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (1,969) (2,002) (2,057) (2,084) (2,216)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 3,020 3,114 3,157 3,198 3,107<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (365) (378) (436) (439) (420)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 164 142 100 100 100<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 1,605 1,412 1,466 1,697 1,761<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 4,446 4,314 4,389 4,556 4,548<br />

Taxes on Profit (624) (325) (597) (586) (574)<br />

Minority Interests 3 (1) (2) (2) (2)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 3,825 3,989 3,791 3,968 3,972<br />

Balance Sheet (S$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 10,320 10,632 10,854 11,156 11,363<br />

Long-term Investments 309 247 247 247 247<br />

Associates 10,197 10,181 11,046 12,048 13,088<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 10,218 10,174 10,096 10,031 9,976<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 32,727 34,599 35,808 37,126 38,350<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 3,817 4,472 4,608 4,918 4,750<br />

Total Current Assets 6,555 5,819 6,522 6,509 5,718<br />

Total Assets 39,282 40,418 42,330 43,635 44,068<br />

Shareholders' Equity 24,328 23,428 24,679 26,042 27,218<br />

Total Equity 24,350 23,448 24,700 26,062 27,238<br />

Long Term Debt 4,587 8,663 9,029 8,395 7,761<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 6,391 11,434 11,800 11,166 10,533<br />

Total Current Liabilities 8,541 5,535 5,830 6,406 6,298<br />

Total Liabilities 14,932 16,970 17,631 17,573 16,830<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 39,282 40,418 42,330 43,635 44,068<br />

Cash Flow Statement (S$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 4,446 4,314 4,389 4,556 4,548<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 1,969 2,002 2,057 2,084 2,216<br />

Tax Paid (301) (451) (418) (518) (570)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (1) 10 (608) 131 (16)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 4,849 4,791 4,390 4,994 4,837<br />

Capital Expenditure (2,032) (2,367) (2,400) (2,400) (2,400)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (665) (407) 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (1,567) (1,889) (1,691) (1,584) (1,569)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 840 1,189 894 (634) (634)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net (33) (11) 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (2,357) (4,111) (2,539) (2,605) (2,797)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (2,139) (4,264) (2,132) (3,733) (3,891)<br />

Change in Cash 1,143 (1,363) 567 (322) (623)<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 27.6% 27.2% 28.1% 27.9% 27.6%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 16.7% 16.5% 17.0% 16.9% 16.1%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 21.2% 21.2% 20.4% 21.0% 20.6%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 16.0% 16.7% 15.8% 15.6% 14.9%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 7.9% 7.9% 7.7% 7.6% 7.2%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 12.9% 13.3% 11.6% 11.6% 11.3%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 29.9% 37.5% 39.2% 34.7% 30.9%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 18.7% 31.8% 31.5% 28.6% 27.4%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 161.5% 166.9% 172.0% 169.5% 164.7%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.5x 0.9x 8.6x 4.3x 4.5x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 8.7x 7.5x 6.5x 6.5x 6.8x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 32.1% 24.3% 32.8% 24.8% 15.4%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 76.8% 105.1% 111.9% 101.6% 90.8%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 73.2% 101.4% 109.3% 98.2% 88.1%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

311 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Sinopharm Group Co. Ltd. (1099 HK)<br />

Sector: Health Care Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Health Care Equipment & Services Debt Service Cover (x) 0.4x<br />

Country: Hong Kong<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 66.3%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.3x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Sinopharm Group Co. Ltd. (Sinopharm) is the largest distributor and provider of supply chain services for<br />

pharmaceutical and healthcare products in China. The group was established as a limited liability<br />

company under PRC law on 8 January 2003. The Company’s shares are listed on Hong Kong Stock<br />

Exchange (Bloomberg Code: 1099 HK).<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (RMB m) 8,208 14,291 13,354 12,836 7,492<br />

Gross Debt (RMB m) 3,435 13,849 14,966 15,499 10,891<br />

Interest Expense (RMB m) (314) (750) (936) (990) (858)<br />

EBIT (RMB m) 2,409 3,636 4,955 6,190 8,048<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 23.3% 67.9% 66.3% 60.9% 37.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 106.1% 109.3% 105.7% 102.2% 95.2%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 1.0x 2.1x 2.6x 2.2x 1.5x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.5x 0.2x 0.4x 0.5x 0.4x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 7.7x 4.8x 5.3x 6.3x 9.4x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (RMB m) 69,234 102,225 136,632 169,600 207,420<br />

% Change (YoY) 31.5% 47.7% 33.7% 24.1% 22.3%<br />

EBITDA (RMB m) 2,709 4,096 5,596 6,894 8,798<br />

% of Sales 3.9% 4.0% 4.1% 4.1% 4.2%<br />

Net Income (RMB m) 1,209 1,561 1,794 2,260 3,023<br />

% of Sales 1.7% 1.5% 1.3% 1.3% 1.5%<br />

Free Cash Flow (RMB m) (262) (110) (540) 539 1,023<br />

% of Sales (0.4%) (0.1%) (0.4%) 0.3% 0.5%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 10,804 8,208 14,291 13,354 12,836<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (262) (110) (540) 539 1,023<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 10,541 8,098 13,751 13,894 13,859<br />

Principal Repayments 3,658 13,167 9,883 10,467 15,608<br />

Interest Payments 314 750 936 990 858<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 3,972 13,916 10,820 11,457 16,466<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 2.7x 0.6x 1.3x 1.2x 0.8x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In RMB m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 14,291 23.0%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 6,662 10.7%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 20,952 33.8%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 20,952 33.8%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 62,031 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

27.6% 24.2% 24.6%<br />

72.4% 75.8% 75.4%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(RMB m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 36,334 46,839 47,566<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 13,849 14,966 15,499<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

0.6x<br />

9.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

8.0x<br />

7.0x<br />

0.4x<br />

6.0x<br />

0.3x<br />

5.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

0.2x<br />

3.0x<br />

0.1x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

3.0x<br />

2.7x<br />

2.5x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EI785156 Corp At Maturity Unsecured RMB 3,000.0 3,000.0 100.00 22-Aug-2011 22-Aug-2014 5.53% 1<br />

EI665449 Corp At Maturity Unsecured RMB 2,000.0 2,000.0 100.00 12-May-2011 12-May-2014 4.89% 1<br />

EI793705 Corp At Maturity Unsecured RMB 1,600.0 1,600.0 100.00 31-Aug-2011 31-Aug-2014 6.60% 1<br />

312 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

2.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

29<br />

24<br />

19<br />

0.6x<br />

1.3x 1.2x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

14<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Sinopharm Group Co. Ltd.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (RMB m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 69,234 102,225 136,632 169,600 207,420<br />

Operating Expenses (66,602) (98,297) (131,251) (162,921) (198,837)<br />

EBITDA 2,709 4,096 5,596 6,894 8,798<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (301) (460) (641) (705) (750)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 2,409 3,636 4,955 6,190 8,048<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (12) (408) (819) (879) (771)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) (161) (297) (407) (484) (643)<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 90 107 134 136 137<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 2,398 3,128 3,869 4,969 6,777<br />

Taxes on Profit (568) (725) (927) (1,202) (1,654)<br />

Minority Interests (622) (842) (1,147) (1,507) (2,100)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 1,209 1,561 1,794 2,260 3,023<br />

Balance Sheet (RMB m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 2,841 3,719 4,449 4,971 5,372<br />

Long-term Investments 205 212 361 386 413<br />

Associates 486 671 678 685 693<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 2,257 5,575 5,445 5,331 5,231<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 7,151 11,395 11,958 12,324 12,628<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 26,656 41,942 54,676 65,367 80,757<br />

Total Current Assets 34,863 56,233 68,031 78,202 88,250<br />

Total Assets 42,014 67,628 79,989 90,526 100,878<br />

Shareholders' Equity 11,711 15,674 17,012 18,746 21,106<br />

Total Equity 14,719 20,388 22,589 25,456 29,396<br />

Long Term Debt 91 5,182 5,132 5,082 182<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 1,541 6,948 6,898 6,848 1,948<br />

Total Current Liabilities 25,754 40,292 50,502 58,222 69,533<br />

Total Liabilities 27,295 47,240 57,400 65,070 71,482<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 42,014 67,628 79,989 90,526 100,878<br />

Cash Flow Statement (RMB m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 2,398 3,128 3,869 4,969 6,777<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 301 460 641 705 750<br />

Tax Paid (507) (828) (927) (1,202) (1,654)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (1,048) (2,327) (3,690) (3,554) (4,371)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 1,268 1,019 510 1,589 2,073<br />

Capital Expenditure (1,531) (1,130) (1,050) (1,050) (1,050)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (3,001) (1,789) (63) 79 87<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (1,897) (2,831) (889) (752) (767)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 1,162 6,140 1,117 533 (4,608)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 2,835 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (125) (570) (741) (899) (1,183)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 536 7,428 (561) (1,356) (6,649)<br />

Change in Cash (93) 5,616 (939) (519) (5,343)<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 3.9% 4.0% 4.1% 4.1% 4.2%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 3.5% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.9%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 1.7% 1.5% 1.3% 1.3% 1.5%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 10.3% 11.4% 11.0% 12.6% 15.2%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 6.7% 6.8% 6.9% 7.4% 8.5%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 22.6% 17.7% 16.5% 17.5% 19.5%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 23.3% 67.9% 66.3% 60.9% 37.0%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - 3.7% 12.5% 15.2% 15.7%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 316.7% 400.4% 451.6% 476.9% 480.3%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.5x 0.2x 0.4x 0.5x 0.4x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 7.7x 4.8x 5.3x 6.3x 9.4x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 29.0% 32.5% 24.1% 20.0% 9.0%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 135.4% 139.6% 134.7% 134.3% 126.9%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 106.1% 109.3% 105.7% 102.2% 95.2%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

313 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Ltd. (3808 HK)<br />

Sector: Industrials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Capital Goods<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.1x<br />

Country: Hong Kong<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 62.9%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.7x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited was incorporated in Hong Kong on 31 January 2007 as a limited liability<br />

company as a result of a group reorganisation of China National Heavy Duty Truck Group Company<br />

Limited (“CNHTC”). Currently, CNHTC holds a 51% stake in the company. The company primarily<br />

specialises in the research, development and manufacturing of heavy duty trucks and related key parts<br />

and components, including engines, cabins, axles, steel frames and gearboxes. It entered the light and<br />

medium trucks segment in 2010.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (RMB '000) 11,562,561 9,582,099 6,773,476 5,305,001 5,161,245<br />

Gross Debt (RMB '000) 14,207,174 15,605,610 13,106,800 11,906,800 11,604,533<br />

Interest Expense (RMB '000) (491,585) (813,947) (775,235) (662,860) (623,050)<br />

EBIT (RMB '000) 2,523,382 1,979,333 1,269,459 1,792,535 1,975,031<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 71.9% 75.9% 62.9% 54.9% 51.4%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 92.3% 94.8% 85.1% 81.9% 81.6%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 3.4x 5.1x 6.2x 4.2x 3.6x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.2x 0.2x 0.1x 0.2x 0.2x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 5.1x 2.4x 1.6x 2.7x 3.2x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (RMB '000) 39,656,160 36,603,546 28,375,479 33,241,311 35,846,236<br />

% Change (YoY) 42.1% (7.7%) (22.5%) 17.1% 7.8%<br />

EBITDA (RMB '000) 3,377,342 2,929,671 2,311,047 2,984,789 3,255,121<br />

% of Sales 8.5% 8.0% 8.1% 9.0% 9.1%<br />

Net Income (RMB '000) 1,480,745 1,002,177 424,292 834,229 1,004,176<br />

% of Sales 3.7% 2.7% 1.5% 2.5% 2.8%<br />

Free Cash Flow (RMB '000) (7,448,451) (2,393,621) 531,950 404,826 943,659<br />

% of Sales (18.8%) (6.5%) 1.9% 1.2% 2.6%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 12,591,417 11,562,561 9,582,099 6,773,476 5,305,001<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (7,448,451) (2,393,621) 531,950 404,826 943,659<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 5,142,966 9,168,940 10,114,049 7,178,303 6,248,660<br />

Principal Repayments 14,832,766 10,836,756 13,498,810 12,200,000 11,302,267<br />

Interest Payments 491,585 813,947 775,235 662,860 623,050<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 15,324,351 11,650,703 14,274,045 12,862,860 11,925,317<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.3x 0.8x 0.7x 0.6x 0.5x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In RMB '000)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 9,582,099 15.2%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 4,611,135 7.3%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 14,193,234 22.6%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 14,193,234 22.6%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 62,864,796 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

314 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

61.6%<br />

38.4%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(RMB '000) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 9,711,250 13,140,093 13,531,915<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 15,605,610 13,106,800 11,906,800<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

0.3x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

49.9%<br />

50.1%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

0.9x<br />

0.8x<br />

0.7x<br />

0.8x<br />

0.7x<br />

0.6x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.6x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.3x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.1x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.3x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

46.8%<br />

53.2%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

0.2x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.1x<br />

0.1x<br />

6.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

7.37<br />

6.37<br />

5.37<br />

4.37<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

3.37<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Ltd.<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (RMB '000) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 39,656,160 36,603,546 28,375,479 33,241,311 35,846,236<br />

Operating Expenses (36,484,585) (33,975,805) (26,353,061 (30,569,21 (32,922,039)<br />

EBITDA 3,377,342 2,929,671 2,311,047 2,984,789 3,255,121<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (853,960) (950,338) (1,041,587) (1,192,254) (1,280,089)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 2,523,382 1,979,333 1,269,459 1,792,535 1,975,031<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (243,893) (578,460) (628,129) (548,214) (523,720)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) (223,658) 62,665 (5,000) 16,621 35,846<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 2,054,248 1,465,967 636,331 1,260,942 1,487,157<br />

Taxes on Profit (324,733) (297,645) (140,083) (285,235) (316,789)<br />

Minority Interests (248,770) (166,145) (71,956) (141,477) (166,192)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 1,480,745 1,002,177 424,292 834,229 1,004,176<br />

Balance Sheet (RMB '000)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 7,525,695 7,854,681 9,895,831 11,575,404 12,797,230<br />

Long-term Investments 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Associates 6,196 6,225 6,225 6,225 6,225<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 2,163,397 2,074,609 1,987,539 1,915,330 1,855,454<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 12,378,292 14,901,224 16,419,637 17,787,383 18,567,294<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 29,968,765 27,510,002 26,793,734 27,099,163 27,754,089<br />

Total Current Assets 41,531,326 37,092,101 33,567,210 32,404,164 32,915,335<br />

Total Assets 53,909,618 51,993,325 49,986,847 50,191,547 51,482,628<br />

Shareholders' Equity 18,127,378 18,749,639 18,950,586 19,666,013 20,419,920<br />

Total Equity 19,760,071 20,568,600 20,835,746 21,681,333 22,588,137<br />

Long Term Debt 2,686,240 2,106,800 906,800 604,533 302,267<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 3,645,680 3,038,388 1,838,388 1,536,121 1,233,855<br />

Total Current Liabilities 30,503,867 28,386,337 27,312,712 26,974,093 27,660,637<br />

Total Liabilities 34,149,547 31,424,725 29,151,100 28,510,214 28,894,492<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 53,909,618 51,993,325 49,986,847 50,191,547 51,482,628<br />

Cash Flow Statement (RMB '000)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 2,054,248 1,465,967 636,331 1,260,942 1,487,157<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 853,960 950,338 1,041,587 1,192,254 1,280,089<br />

Tax Paid (413,979) (829,612) (34,761) (159,998) (238,394)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (8,950,443) (2,945,351) 820,665 123,415 (48,914)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations (5,887,992) (612,361) 3,091,950 2,964,826 3,003,659<br />

Capital Expenditure (1,560,459) (1,781,260) (2,560,000) (2,560,000) (2,060,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (62,720) 1,485 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (322,087) (1,605,130) (2,397,427) (2,440,321) (1,958,533)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 5,413,154 1,392,212 (2,498,810) (1,200,000) (302,267)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (140,973) (415,981) (223,345) (118,802) (250,269)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 6,349,066 281,670 (3,503,147) (1,992,980) (1,188,881)<br />

Change in Cash 138,987 (1,935,821) (2,808,623) (1,468,475) (143,756)<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 8.5% 8.0% 8.1% 9.0% 9.1%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 6.4% 5.4% 4.5% 5.4% 5.5%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 3.7% 2.7% 1.5% 2.5% 2.8%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 8.5% 5.4% 2.3% 4.3% 5.0%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 5.9% 4.1% 2.8% 3.8% 4.1%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 11.2% 6.2% 3.6% 4.8% 5.3%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 71.9% 75.9% 62.9% 54.9% 51.4%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 13.4% 29.3% 30.4% 30.5% 28.5%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 266.4% 287.2% 270.5% 259.4% 253.6%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.2x 0.2x 0.1x 0.2x 0.2x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 5.1x 2.4x 1.6x 2.7x 3.2x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 37.9% 33.7% 24.8% 19.6% 18.6%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 136.2% 130.7% 122.9% 120.1% 119.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 92.3% 94.8% 85.1% 81.9% 81.6%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

315 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


SK Hynix Inc. (000660 KS)<br />

Sector: Information Technology Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Semiconductors & Semiconductor Debt Service Cover (x) 1.7x<br />

Country: Korea<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 93.5%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.2x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

SK Hynix Inc. is the second largest manufacturer of memory semiconductor, and the largest DRAM<br />

provider in emerging markets such as China. The Company produces semiconductor, such as DRAM<br />

and NAND flash and System IC including CMOS Image Sensors. PC computers, smartphones, tablet<br />

PCs, etc. are the key drivers for the company's growth. The demand of such devices attracts seasonality<br />

to its business taking the prices of memory to rock bottom levels during weak demand season and<br />

oversupply conditions.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (KW m) 1,253,226 1,243,789 832,886 167,079 1,860,856<br />

Gross Debt (KW m) 6,054,689 6,776,465 7,178,214 6,645,621 6,682,876<br />

Interest Expense (KW m) (346,377) (310,397) (284,512) (283,772) (271,884)<br />

EBIT (KW m) 2,936,003 253,985 (78,478) 1,249,110 1,764,299<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 76.6% 86.0% 93.5% 76.9% 66.2%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 77.3% 77.9% 70.2% 92.4% 105.7%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 1.1x 1.7x 2.2x 1.5x 1.2x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 2.2x nm 1.7x 2.5x 4.1x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 8.5x 0.8x - 4.4x 6.5x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (KW m) 12,106,090 10,395,811 10,234,429 11,814,912 12,808,312<br />

% Change (YoY) 53.1% (14.1%) (1.6%) 15.4% 8.4%<br />

EBITDA (KW m) 6,085,226 3,720,899 3,184,424 4,736,136 5,388,669<br />

% of Sales 50.3% 35.8% 31.1% 40.1% 42.1%<br />

Net Income (KW m) 2,620,962 (56,641) (200,532) 953,171 1,458,075<br />

% of Sales 21.6% (0.5%) (2.0%) 8.1% 11.4%<br />

Free Cash Flow (KW m) 2,339,775 (888,389) (811,622) (141,130) 1,673,735<br />

% of Sales 19.3% (8.5%) (7.9%) (1.2%) 13.1%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 1,209,111 1,253,226 1,243,789 832,886 167,079<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2,339,775 (888,389) (811,622) (141,130) 1,673,735<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 3,548,886 364,837 432,167 691,756 1,840,814<br />

Principal Repayments 2,327,912 1,826,595 1,618,157 1,552,498 982,651<br />

Interest Payments 346,377 310,397 284,512 283,772 271,884<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 2,674,289 2,136,992 1,902,669 1,836,270 1,254,535<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.3x 0.2x 0.2x 0.4x 1.5x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In KW m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 1,243,789 14.1%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 4,504,087 51.2%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 5,747,876 65.3%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 27,000 0.3%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 5,774,876 65.6%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 8,798,763 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

34.3% 32.0% 29.6%<br />

65.7% 68.0% 70.4%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(KW m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 12,998,166 15,248,418 15,781,372<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 6,776,465 7,178,214 6,645,621<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

3.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

nm<br />

nm<br />

nm<br />

nm<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

1.4x 1.3x<br />

1.2x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EH120128 Corp Convertible/Puttable Senior Unsecured US$ 583.4 35.7 100.00 14-Dec-2007 14-Dec-2012 4.50% 2<br />

EI251162 Corp Convertible/Puttable Senior Unsecured US$ 500.0 500.0 100.00 14-May-2010 14-May-2015 2.65% 2<br />

EH521974 Corp Convertible/Puttable Senior Unsecured KW 500,000.0 440,570.0 100.00 05-Sep-2008 05-Sep-2013 3.00% 4<br />

316 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (KW)<br />

9.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

7.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

1.0x<br />

0.8x<br />

0.6x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.2x<br />

37,213<br />

32,213<br />

27,213<br />

22,213<br />

0.2x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.4x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

17,213<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

SK Hynix Inc.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (KW m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 12,106,090 10,395,811 10,234,429 11,814,912 12,808,312<br />

Operating Expenses (6,168,716) (7,025,246) (7,252,365) (7,281,137) (7,622,005)<br />

EBITDA 6,085,226 3,720,899 3,184,424 4,736,136 5,388,669<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (3,149,223) (3,466,914) (3,262,902) (3,487,026) (3,624,370)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 2,936,003 253,985 (78,478) 1,249,110 1,764,299<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (278,669) (253,927) (238,290) (252,019) (226,126)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) (32,340) (36,933) 120,000 0 0<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 2,120 10,533 14,506 11,812 12,993<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 2,666,382 45,147 (182,262) 1,008,903 1,551,167<br />

Taxes on Profit (68,807) (101,118) (15,893) (44,154) (75,382)<br />

Minority Interests 23,387 (670) (2,378) (11,577) (17,709)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 2,620,962 (56,641) (200,532) 953,171 1,458,075<br />

Balance Sheet (KW m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 10,076,306 10,454,334 10,996,575 11,471,938 11,831,981<br />

Long-term Investments 187,323 117,121 116,241 122,044 125,692<br />

Associates 98,163 103,613 118,119 129,931 142,924<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 603,653 707,648 674,384 655,915 646,766<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 11,996,031 12,301,298 13,245,412 13,761,002 14,136,178<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 4,162,860 3,693,061 3,783,370 4,376,480 4,202,387<br />

Total Current Assets 5,416,086 4,936,850 4,616,257 4,543,559 6,063,243<br />

Total Assets 17,412,117 17,238,148 17,861,669 18,304,561 20,199,421<br />

Shareholders' Equity 7,905,923 7,875,742 7,675,210 8,628,381 10,057,861<br />

Total Equity 7,907,576 7,875,271 7,677,117 8,641,865 10,089,054<br />

Long Term Debt 3,476,982 3,946,039 4,719,375 5,337,897 4,783,837<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 4,154,982 4,545,591 5,401,366 6,114,103 5,657,460<br />

Total Current Liabilities 5,349,559 4,817,286 4,783,186 3,548,593 4,452,907<br />

Total Liabilities 9,504,541 9,362,877 10,184,552 9,662,696 10,110,367<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 17,412,117 17,238,148 17,861,669 18,304,561 20,199,421<br />

Cash Flow Statement (KW m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 2,666,382 45,147 (182,262) 1,008,903 1,551,167<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 3,149,223 3,466,914 3,262,902 3,487,026 3,624,370<br />

Tax Paid (3,796) (24,357) (20,595) (38,524) (66,573)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (30,163) (813,130) 204,949 (736,407) 417,352<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 5,883,541 2,855,960 3,418,378 3,888,870 5,703,735<br />

Capital Expenditure (3,543,766) (3,744,349) (4,230,000) (4,030,000) (4,030,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (378,032) 27,324 18,876 27,821 31,288<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (4,683,472) (3,389,264) (4,211,124) (4,002,179) (3,998,712)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (1,140,424) 607,915 381,843 (552,498) 17,349<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid 0 (88,541) 0 0 (28,595)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (1,140,424) 519,133 381,843 (552,498) (11,246)<br />

Change in Cash 59,645 (14,171) (410,903) (665,808) 1,693,777<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 50.3% 35.8% 31.1% 40.1% 42.1%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 24.3% 2.4% (0.8%) 10.6% 13.8%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 21.6% (0.5%) (2.0%) 8.1% 11.4%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 39.2% (0.7%) (2.6%) 11.7% 15.6%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 17.8% 1.8% (0.2%) 7.1% 9.4%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 22.7% (2.3%) (0.6%) 7.9% 10.8%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 76.6% 86.0% 93.5% 76.9% 66.2%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 60.7% 70.3% 82.7% 75.0% 47.8%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 252.4% 219.6% 225.7% 221.8% 206.1%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 2.2x nm 1.7x 2.5x 4.1x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 8.5x 0.8x - 4.4x 6.5x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 23.4% 25.8% 17.4% 4.7% 41.8%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 101.2% 102.5% 96.5% 128.0% 136.2%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 77.3% 77.9% 70.2% 92.4% 105.7%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

317 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


SK Telecom Co., Ltd. (017670 KS)<br />

Sector: Telecommunication Services Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Telecommunication Services Debt Service Cover (x) 1.3x<br />

Country: Korea<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 59.3%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.7x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

SK Telecom Co., Ltd. (SK Telecom) is South Korea’s leading telecommunications company which<br />

provides wireless telecommunications services principally through its backbone networks using CDMA,<br />

WCDMA and LTE technologies. The company also provides broadband Internet access service and<br />

other Internet-related services, including video-on-demand and Internet protocol TV, or IP TV, services,<br />

as well as fixed-line telephone services. As of December 31, 2011, the company had approximately 26.5<br />

million wireless subscribers throughout Korea translating into a market share of 50.5%.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (KW m) 1,627,088 2,725,187 1,556,334 1,499,060 1,445,295<br />

Gross Debt (KW m) 6,079,530 5,958,355 7,690,610 6,713,441 5,906,668<br />

Interest Expense (KW m) (379,289) (297,172) (421,959) (442,724) (393,665)<br />

EBIT (KW m) 2,294,290 2,105,879 1,533,215 1,995,875 2,216,864<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 49.0% 46.8% 59.3% 48.8% 39.8%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 104.9% 88.4% 74.1% 71.1% 79.2%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 1.4x 1.4x 1.7x 1.6x 1.3x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.8x 1.8x 1.3x 2.1x 1.9x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 6.0x 7.1x 3.6x 4.5x 5.6x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (KW m) 15,518,637 15,938,549 16,433,725 17,127,137 17,722,758<br />

% Change (YoY) 6.9% 2.7% 3.1% 4.2% 3.5%<br />

EBITDA (KW m) 4,450,105 4,437,147 4,063,992 4,558,327 4,767,301<br />

% of Sales 28.7% 27.8% 24.7% 26.6% 26.9%<br />

Net Income (KW m) 1,841,613 1,612,889 933,413 1,473,069 1,756,091<br />

% of Sales 11.9% 10.1% 5.7% 8.6% 9.9%<br />

Free Cash Flow (KW m) 2,196,930 2,859,744 1,371,002 1,883,081 1,672,684<br />

% of Sales 14.2% 17.9% 8.3% 11.0% 9.4%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 1,682,253 1,627,088 2,725,187 1,556,334 1,499,060<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2,196,930 2,859,744 1,371,002 1,883,081 1,672,684<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 3,879,183 4,486,832 4,096,189 3,439,415 3,171,744<br />

Principal Repayments 1,575,384 1,579,118 2,017,746 1,227,168 1,556,773<br />

Interest Payments 379,289 297,172 421,959 442,724 393,665<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 1,954,673 1,876,290 2,439,704 1,669,892 1,950,438<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 2.0x 2.4x 1.7x 2.1x 1.6x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In KW m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 2,725,187 32.8%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 8,828,473 106.2%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 11,553,660 139.0%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 427,600 5.1%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 11,981,260 144.2%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 8,311,316 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

37.7% 42.0% 39.1%<br />

62.3% 58.0% 60.9%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(KW m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 9,861,842 10,628,487 10,454,250<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 5,958,355 7,690,610 6,713,441<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

2.5x<br />

8.0x<br />

7.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

5.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

3.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EH765119 Corp Convertible/Puttable Senior Unsecured US$ 332.5 332.5 100.00 07-Apr-2009 07-Apr-2014 1.75% 2<br />

EH598845 Corp At Maturity Senior Unsecured KW 250,000.0 250,000.0 100.00 28-Oct-2008 28-Oct-2013 6.92% 4<br />

EH735951 Corp At Maturity Senior Unsecured KW 230,000.0 230,000.0 100.00 05-Mar-2009 05-Mar-2016 5.92% 4<br />

318 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (KW)<br />

2.5x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

1,82,425<br />

1,62,425<br />

1,42,425<br />

1,22,425<br />

2.0x<br />

2.4x<br />

1.7x<br />

2.1x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

1,02,425<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

SK Telecom Co., Ltd.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (KW m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 15,518,637 15,938,549 16,433,725 17,127,137 17,722,758<br />

Operating Expenses (11,068,532) (11,501,402) (12,369,733 (12,568,81 (12,955,458)<br />

EBITDA 4,450,105 4,437,147 4,063,992 4,558,327 4,767,301<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (2,155,815) (2,331,268) (2,530,777) (2,562,452) (2,550,437)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 2,294,290 2,105,879 1,533,215 1,995,875 2,216,864<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (141,897) (129,024) (314,504) (384,066) (342,321)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 254,314 284,320 271,383 273,344 275,131<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits (3,414) (47,149) (76,740) 152,031 253,570<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 2,318,091 2,182,858 1,413,354 2,037,184 2,403,243<br />

Taxes on Profit (544,530) (599,093) (392,032) (592,999) (681,585)<br />

Minority Interests 74,778 30,816 35,901 28,884 34,433<br />

Other Post-tax Items (6,726) (1,692) (123,810) 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 1,841,613 1,612,889 933,413 1,473,069 1,756,091<br />

Balance Sheet (KW m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 7,705,933 8,225,587 9,151,431 9,576,304 9,877,848<br />

Long-term Investments 1,680,699 1,545,573 1,545,573 1,545,573 1,545,573<br />

Associates 1,204,692 1,384,605 4,677,865 4,829,895 5,083,465<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 3,621,605 4,745,736 4,103,211 3,598,492 3,202,022<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 16,478,397 18,248,557 21,916,942 21,945,578 22,088,012<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 5,026,904 3,392,292 3,697,351 3,617,885 3,949,413<br />

Total Current Assets 6,653,992 6,117,479 5,253,686 5,116,945 5,394,708<br />

Total Assets 23,132,389 24,366,036 27,170,628 27,062,523 27,482,720<br />

Shareholders' Equity 11,329,991 11,661,881 11,944,330 12,762,118 13,861,952<br />

Total Equity 12,407,999 12,732,709 12,979,258 13,768,161 14,833,563<br />

Long Term Debt 3,954,589 3,594,801 6,230,311 4,979,877 4,965,387<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 4,522,220 4,959,737 7,595,247 6,344,813 6,330,323<br />

Total Current Liabilities 6,202,170 6,673,590 6,596,123 6,949,548 6,318,834<br />

Total Liabilities 10,724,390 11,633,327 14,191,370 13,294,361 12,649,157<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 23,132,389 24,366,036 27,170,628 27,062,523 27,482,720<br />

Cash Flow Statement (KW m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 2,318,091 2,182,858 1,413,354 2,037,184 2,403,243<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 2,155,815 2,331,268 2,530,777 2,562,452 2,550,437<br />

Tax Paid (666,436) (571,217) (480,030) (559,108) (644,842)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 277,352 2,180,223 620,123 129,831 (205,270)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 4,467,271 6,416,761 4,321,002 4,383,081 4,172,684<br />

Capital Expenditure (2,270,341) (3,557,017) (2,950,000) (2,500,000) (2,500,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (42,211) (662,832) (3,328,724) 54,199 56,939<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (2,098,194) (4,047,795) (6,149,187) (2,365,181) (2,369,754)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (1,318,032) (182,996) 1,732,255 (977,168) (806,773)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net (252,259) (208,012) 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (682,283) (668,293) (650,964) (655,282) (656,257)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (2,610,826) (1,380,947) 659,332 (2,075,174) (1,856,695)<br />

Change in Cash (241,749) 988,019 (1,168,853) (57,274) (53,765)<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 28.7% 27.8% 24.7% 26.6% 26.9%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 14.8% 13.2% 9.3% 11.7% 12.5%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 11.9% 10.1% 5.7% 8.6% 9.9%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 16.4% 14.0% 7.9% 11.9% 13.2%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 10.9% 9.6% 6.4% 7.6% 8.3%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 11.9% 10.6% 7.7% 10.0% 11.3%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 49.0% 46.8% 59.3% 48.8% 39.8%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 43.7% 33.8% 55.5% 45.7% 37.3%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 206.1% 206.6% 218.3% 219.5% 204.9%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.8x 1.8x 1.3x 2.1x 1.9x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 6.0x 7.1x 3.6x 4.5x 5.6x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 10.6% 24.7% 7.3% 6.1% 5.9%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 107.3% 91.7% 79.6% 73.6% 85.4%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 104.9% 88.4% 74.1% 71.1% 79.2%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

319 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Starhub Ltd. (STH SP)<br />

Sector: Telecommunication Services Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Telecommunication Services Debt Service Cover (x) 6.4x<br />

Country: Singapore<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 1,864.3%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 6.4x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

StarHub is Singapore’s first fully integrated infocommunications company, offering a full range of<br />

information, communications and entertainment services for both consumer and corporate markets. It<br />

operates Singapore’s fastest two-way 3.5G mobile network, an island-wide HFC network that delivers<br />

multi-channel pay TV services as well as ultra-high speed residential broadband services, and an<br />

extensive fixed network that provides a wide range of corporate data, voice and wholesale services.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (S$ m) 238 179 164 182 237<br />

Gross Debt (S$ m) 805 663 588 453 419<br />

Interest Expense (S$ m) (27) (22) (19) (16) (13)<br />

EBIT (S$ m) 338 381 421 447 451<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 1,491.5% 2,931.4% 1,864.3% 748.0% 453.7%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 49.4% 55.1% 46.8% 45.4% 50.3%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 1.4x 1.1x 0.9x 0.7x 0.6x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.6x 1.6x 6.4x 4.2x 4.4x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 12.6x 17.5x 22.4x 28.7x 34.5x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (S$ m) 2,238 2,312 2,377 2,434 2,493<br />

% Change (YoY) 4.1% 3.3% 2.8% 2.4% 2.4%<br />

EBITDA (S$ m) 597 658 701 747 771<br />

% of Sales 26.7% 28.5% 29.5% 30.7% 30.9%<br />

Net Income (S$ m) 263 316 357 376 381<br />

% of Sales 11.8% 13.6% 15.0% 15.5% 15.3%<br />

Free Cash Flow (S$ m) 398 450 424 513 450<br />

% of Sales 17.8% 19.5% 17.8% 21.1% 18.1%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 234 238 179 164 182<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 398 450 424 513 450<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 632 687 603 677 632<br />

Principal Repayments 290 330 75 134 134<br />

Interest Payments 27 22 19 16 13<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 317 352 94 150 147<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 2.0x 2.0x 6.4x 4.5x 4.3x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In S$ m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 179 25.0%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 2,419 337.2%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 2,598 362.2%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 2,598 362.2%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 717 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(S$ m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 4,992 6,501 6,535<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 663 588 453<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

7.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EJ351746 Corp At Maturity Senior Unsecured S$ 220.0 220.0 100.00 12-Sep-2012 12-Sep-2022 3.08% 2<br />

320 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (S$)<br />

11.7%<br />

88.3%<br />

8.3%<br />

91.7%<br />

6.5%<br />

93.5%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

7.0x<br />

35.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

6.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

4.82<br />

4.32<br />

3.82<br />

3.32<br />

2.82<br />

2.0x 2.0x<br />

6.4x<br />

4.5x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

2.32<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Starhub Ltd.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (S$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 2,238 2,312 2,377 2,434 2,493<br />

Operating Expenses (1,641) (1,654) (1,676) (1,687) (1,721)<br />

EBITDA 597 658 701 747 771<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (260) (278) (280) (300) (321)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 338 381 421 447 451<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (25) (18) (15) (14) (11)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 6 21 25 20 20<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 318 380 431 453 460<br />

Taxes on Profit (54) (64) (73) (77) (78)<br />

Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 263 316 357 376 381<br />

Balance Sheet (S$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 708 670 657 634 595<br />

Long-term Investments 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Associates 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 452 424 384 345 305<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 1,232 1,188 1,150 1,092 1,014<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 324 356 314 325 319<br />

Total Current Assets 561 535 478 507 556<br />

Total Assets 1,794 1,723 1,628 1,599 1,571<br />

Shareholders' Equity 54 23 32 61 92<br />

Total Equity 54 23 32 61 92<br />

Long Term Debt 475 588 453 319 264<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 666 797 657 517 457<br />

Total Current Liabilities 1,073 903 940 1,021 1,021<br />

Total Liabilities 1,740 1,701 1,597 1,538 1,479<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 1,794 1,723 1,628 1,599 1,571<br />

Cash Flow Statement (S$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 318 380 431 453 460<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 260 278 280 300 321<br />

Tax Paid 0 0 (39) (49) (56)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 64 38 (13) 44 (35)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 670 696 674 763 700<br />

Capital Expenditure (272) (247) (250) (250) (250)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 2 1 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (268) (244) (247) (248) (248)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (90) (143) (75) (134) (34)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 2 (7) 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (343) (343) (348) (347) (350)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (398) (511) (442) (497) (397)<br />

Change in Cash 3 (58) (15) 18 55<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 26.7% 28.5% 29.5% 30.7% 30.9%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 15.1% 16.5% 17.7% 18.4% 18.1%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 11.8% 13.6% 15.0% 15.5% 15.3%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 292.8% 823.8% 1,321.0% 817.1% 499.0%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 19.3% 21.8% 25.3% 27.8% 28.6%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 33.4% 41.4% 50.8% 62.5% 75.0%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 1,491.5% 2,931.4% 1,864.3% 748.0% 453.7%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 1,051.7% 2,138.5% 1,343.2% 448.0% 196.9%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 1,961.1% 4,590.9% 6,193.1% 3,503.8% 2,073.3%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.6x 1.6x 6.4x 4.2x 4.4x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 12.6x 17.5x 22.4x 28.7x 34.5x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 22.1% 19.8% 17.5% 17.8% 23.2%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 52.3% 59.2% 50.9% 49.6% 54.5%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 49.4% 55.1% 46.8% 45.4% 50.3%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

321 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


STATS ChipPAC Ltd. (STAT SP)<br />

Sector: Information Technology Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Semiconductors & Semiconductor Debt Service Cover (x) 7.2x<br />

Country: Singapore<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 90.2%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 3.8x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

STATS ChipPAC Ltd is one of the world’s largest providers of independent semiconductor manufacturing<br />

services in package and test, including pre and post production process. Domiciled in Singapore, the<br />

Company has manufacturing facilities located in South Korea, Singapore, China, Malaysia and Taiwan.<br />

The major segments that are covered by the Company are Communications, Customer and others, PCs<br />

with more than 50% revenue contribution from Communications. The Company serves both IDM as well<br />

as Fabless companies.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (US$ '000) 285,037 238,060 257,737 254,942 246,629<br />

Gross Debt (US$ '000) 844,202 810,339 912,754 895,170 877,585<br />

Interest Expense (US$ '000) (28,271) (54,038) (58,550) (59,600) (58,450)<br />

EBIT (US$ '000) 193,678 131,164 122,379 135,343 150,843<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 82.1% 82.2% 90.2% 84.1% 77.7%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 146.5% 146.9% 160.2% 156.4% 56.7%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 1.4x 2.0x 2.0x 2.0x 1.9x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.7x 0.2x 7.2x 5.3x 5.7x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 6.9x 2.4x 2.1x 2.3x 2.6x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (US$ '000) 1,677,834 1,706,500 1,653,776 1,702,430 1,785,123<br />

% Change (YoY) 26.6% 1.7% (3.1%) 2.9% 4.9%<br />

EBITDA (US$ '000) 471,395 423,362 420,797 449,810 475,608<br />

% of Sales 28.1% 24.8% 25.4% 26.4% 26.6%<br />

Net Income (US$ '000) 107,978 (2,502) 24,988 51,233 62,539<br />

% of Sales 6.4% (0.1%) 1.5% 3.0% 3.5%<br />

Free Cash Flow (US$ '000) 175,829 55,157 (17,553) 82,248 77,248<br />

% of Sales 10.5% 3.2% (1.1%) 4.8% 4.3%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 351,195 285,037 238,060 257,737 254,942<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 175,829 55,157 (17,553) 82,248 77,248<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 527,024 340,194 220,507 339,985 332,190<br />

Principal Repayments 516,550 285,097 0 20,000 20,000<br />

Interest Payments 28,271 54,038 58,550 59,600 58,450<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 544,821 339,135 58,550 79,600 78,450<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.0x 1.0x 3.8x 4.3x 4.2x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In US$ '000)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 238,060 19.2%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 435,391 35.1%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 673,451 54.3%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 193,600 15.6%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 867,051 69.9%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 1,239,950 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(US$ '000) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 667,284 612,829 667,284<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 810,339 912,754 895,170<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

4.5x<br />

4.3x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.5x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.5x<br />

2.0x<br />

3.8x<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.0x<br />

1.0x 1.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EI341619 Corp Callable Company Gaurantee US$ 600.0 600.0 100.00 12-Aug-2010 12-Aug-2015 7.50% 2<br />

EI530179 Corp Callable Company Guarantee US$ 200.0 200.0 100.00 12-Jan-2011 12-Jan-2016 5.38% 2<br />

322 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (S$)<br />

54.8%<br />

45.2%<br />

59.8%<br />

40.2%<br />

57.3%<br />

42.7%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

8.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

7.0x<br />

7.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

0.65<br />

0.55<br />

0.45<br />

0.35<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

0.25<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

STATS ChipPAC Ltd.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (US$ '000) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 1,677,834 1,706,500 1,653,776 1,702,430 1,785,123<br />

Operating Expenses (1,206,439) (1,283,138) (1,232,979) (1,252,621) (1,309,515)<br />

EBITDA 471,395 423,362 420,797 449,810 475,608<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (277,717) (292,198) (298,418) (314,466) (324,765)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 193,678 131,164 122,379 135,343 150,843<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (41,132) (57,860) (56,688) (57,674) (56,566)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) (4,707) 41,568 (2,189) (2,415) (2,415)<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 465 (1,045) (841) 378 397<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 142,325 12,416 51,147 75,632 92,259<br />

Taxes on Profit (26,977) (10,594) (18,695) (15,357) (18,684)<br />

Minority Interests (7,370) (4,324) (7,464) (9,041) (11,036)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 107,978 (2,502) 24,988 51,233 62,539<br />

Balance Sheet (US$ '000)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 1,123,809 1,123,061 1,233,023 1,277,224 1,311,413<br />

Long-term Investments 16,646 0 0 0 0<br />

Associates 8,104 8,407 7,566 7,945 8,342<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 468,991 442,766 441,386 439,719 437,765<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 1,620,544 1,580,194 1,685,011 1,727,903 1,760,654<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 344,335 345,524 331,859 330,633 367,336<br />

Total Current Assets 629,372 583,584 589,596 585,575 613,966<br />

Total Assets 2,249,916 2,163,778 2,274,607 2,313,478 2,374,619<br />

Shareholders' Equity 958,298 938,093 963,081 1,014,314 1,076,853<br />

Total Equity 1,027,714 985,695 1,012,064 1,064,970 1,129,550<br />

Long Term Debt 782,434 790,339 892,754 875,170 257,585<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 840,236 841,653 944,068 926,484 308,899<br />

Total Current Liabilities 381,966 336,430 318,475 322,025 936,171<br />

Total Liabilities 1,222,202 1,178,083 1,262,543 1,248,509 1,245,069<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 2,249,916 2,163,778 2,274,607 2,313,478 2,374,619<br />

Cash Flow Statement (US$ '000)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 142,325 12,416 51,147 75,632 92,259<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 277,717 292,198 298,418 314,466 324,765<br />

Tax Paid (785) (3,584) (12,816) (13,832) (15,773)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (4,073) (12,696) (20,060) (10,561) (41,360)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 465,703 389,240 389,447 439,248 434,248<br />

Capital Expenditure (289,874) (334,083) (407,000) (357,000) (357,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (19,296) 63,296 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (304,782) (266,209) (405,138) (355,074) (355,116)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 376,816 (44,613) 100,000 (20,000) (20,000)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (252,971) (124,630) 35,367 (86,969) (87,445)<br />

Change in Cash (92,050) (1,599) 19,677 (2,795) (8,313)<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 28.1% 24.8% 25.4% 26.4% 26.6%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 11.5% 7.7% 7.4% 7.9% 8.5%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 6.4% (0.1%) 1.5% 3.0% 3.5%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 9.0% (0.3%) 2.6% 5.2% 6.0%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 8.6% 6.0% 5.6% 6.0% 6.5%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 9.7% 1.2% 4.7% 6.2% 6.8%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 82.1% 82.2% 90.2% 84.1% 77.7%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 63.0% 62.4% 69.0% 64.2% 59.7%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 188.8% 232.7% 233.5% 232.0% 224.2%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.7x 0.2x 7.2x 5.3x 5.7x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 6.9x 2.4x 2.1x 2.3x 2.6x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 51.4% 57.9% 67.3% 65.7% 21.7%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 164.8% 173.5% 185.1% 181.8% 65.6%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 146.5% 146.9% 160.2% 156.4% 56.7%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

323 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Steel Authority of India Ltd. (SAIL IN)<br />

Sector: Materials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Materials<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.5x<br />

Country: India<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 41.8%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.9x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Steel Authority of India Limited (SAIL) is a leading steel-making company in India with strong backward<br />

and forward integration. Ranked amongst the top ten public sector companies in India in terms of<br />

turnover, SAIL produces both basic and special steel products for sectors like construction, engineering,<br />

railways and automobile. The company has five main integrated steel plants in addition to three special<br />

steel plants and is engaged in manufacturing and selling of a broad range of steel products in both flats<br />

and longs category.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Mar) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Rs m) 177,971 67,092 46,187 38,801 78,373<br />

Gross Debt (Rs m) 200,401 169,988 178,010 184,033 179,055<br />

Interest Expense (Rs m) (5,586) (7,169) (7,335) (7,280) (7,375)<br />

EBIT (Rs m) 62,370 47,304 40,452 51,429 56,787<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 53.3% 42.2% 41.8% 40.2% 36.3%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 117.6% 89.9% 56.5% 56.3% 58.3%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 2.4x 2.9x 2.9x 2.4x 2.2x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.6x 0.7x 1.5x 1.5x 1.4x<br />

Interest Cover (x) - 1.5x 5.5x 7.1x 7.7x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (Rs m) 433,994 466,582 468,980 570,647 622,750<br />

% Change (YoY) 7.0% 7.5% 0.5% 21.7% 9.1%<br />

EBITDA (Rs m) 78,399 64,163 59,965 75,275 84,320<br />

% of Sales 18.1% 13.8% 12.8% 13.2% 13.5%<br />

Net Income (Rs m) 50,139 35,931 30,373 41,404 46,394<br />

% of Sales 11.6% 7.7% 6.5% 7.3% 7.4%<br />

Free Cash Flow (Rs m) (70,094) (64,830) (39,764) (10,073) 51,225<br />

% of Sales (16.2%) (13.9%) (8.5%) (1.8%) 8.2%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 227,185 177,971 67,092 46,187 38,801<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (84,140) (79,649) (39,764) (10,073) 51,225<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 143,046 98,322 27,328 36,114 90,026<br />

Principal Repayments 111,901 42,474 21,978 28,978 34,978<br />

Interest Payments (36,621) 32,423 7,335 7,280 7,375<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 75,280 74,897 29,313 36,258 42,353<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.9x 1.3x 0.9x 1.0x 2.1x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In Rs m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 67,092 35.0%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 71,474 37.3%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 138,566 72.3%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 138,566 72.3%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 191,766 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

30.4% 31.0% 31.7%<br />

69.6% 69.0% 68.3%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(Rs m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 389,290 396,518 396,518<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 169,988 178,010 184,033<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

1.6x<br />

8<br />

1.4x<br />

7<br />

1.2x<br />

6<br />

1.0x<br />

5<br />

0.8x<br />

4<br />

0.6x<br />

3<br />

0.4x<br />

2<br />

0.2x<br />

1<br />

0.0x<br />

0<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

2.0x<br />

1.8x<br />

1.6x<br />

1.9x<br />

1.4x<br />

1.3x<br />

1.2x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.8x<br />

0.6x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.9x<br />

1.0x<br />

2011A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EJ283797 Corp Callable Senior Secured Rs 9,500.0 9,500.0 100.00 01-May-2009 01-May-2019 8.80% 1<br />

EJ272439 Corp At Maturity Senior Secured Rs 8,250.0 8,250.0 100.00 22-Jun-2009 22-Jun-2019 8.80% 1<br />

EJ283787 Corp At Maturity Senior Secured Rs 7,000.0 7,000.0 100.00 08-Nov-2009 08-Nov-2021 8.55% 1<br />

324 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (Rs)<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

135<br />

125<br />

115<br />

105<br />

95<br />

85<br />

75<br />

65<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Steel Authority of India Ltd.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (Rs m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 433,994 466,582 468,980 570,647 622,750<br />

Operating Expenses (355,595) (402,419) (409,015) (495,373) (538,430)<br />

EBITDA 78,399 64,163 59,965 75,275 84,320<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (16,030) (16,859) (19,513) (23,845) (27,533)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 62,370 47,304 40,452 51,429 56,787<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 8,355 7,113 808 (6) 1,603<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 1,685 798 3,670 9,826 10,239<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 73,836 52,826 44,930 61,249 68,630<br />

Taxes on Profit (23,696) (16,897) (14,557) (19,845) (22,236)<br />

Minority Interests (2) 0 0 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items 1 1 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 50,139 35,931 30,373 41,404 46,394<br />

Balance Sheet (Rs m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 152,321 173,442 268,829 344,522 404,267<br />

Long-term Investments 128 216 233 239 244<br />

Associates 32 32 32 32 32<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 13,769 14,201 13,433 12,665 11,898<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 409,555 493,576 572,708 614,114 646,599<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 193,446 224,288 217,660 256,945 254,519<br />

Total Current Assets 371,417 291,380 263,847 295,745 332,892<br />

Total Assets 780,972 784,956 836,555 909,859 979,491<br />

Shareholders' Equity 376,127 402,732 426,027 457,784 493,368<br />

Total Equity 376,139 402,732 426,027 457,784 493,368<br />

Long Term Debt 99,709 123,983 126,294 128,295 120,587<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 186,939 212,668 218,245 244,571 243,804<br />

Total Current Liabilities 217,894 169,556 192,283 207,503 242,319<br />

Total Liabilities 404,833 382,225 410,527 452,074 486,123<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 780,972 784,956 836,555 909,859 979,491<br />

Cash Flow Statement (Rs m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 73,836 52,826 44,930 61,249 68,630<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 16,030 16,859 19,513 23,845 27,533<br />

Tax Paid (23,000) (14,699) (16,013) (21,829) (24,460)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (32,854) (32,262) 7,788 (30,841) 34,524<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 38,428 32,772 60,236 54,927 111,225<br />

Capital Expenditure (108,522) (97,602) (100,000) (65,000) (60,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 238 349 1,002 1,322 1,552<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (91,315) (77,979) (74,356) (52,694) (49,072)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 36,621 (32,423) 8,022 6,022 (4,978)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 1 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (13,993) (11,617) (7,472) (8,362) (10,228)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 17,215 (50,841) (6,784) (9,620) (22,581)<br />

Change in Cash (35,673) (96,049) (20,904) (7,387) 39,572<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 18.1% 13.8% 12.8% 13.2% 13.5%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 14.4% 10.1% 8.6% 9.0% 9.1%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 11.6% 7.7% 6.5% 7.3% 7.4%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 14.1% 9.2% 7.3% 9.4% 9.8%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 10.3% 7.9% 6.0% 6.7% 7.0%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 10.0% 6.0% 4.4% 5.1% 5.3%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 53.3% 42.2% 41.8% 40.2% 36.3%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 6.1% 25.7% 31.1% 31.8% 20.5%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 208.2% 201.1% 195.7% 197.6% 198.6%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.6x 0.7x 1.5x 1.5x 1.4x<br />

Interest Cover (x) - 1.5x 5.5x 7.1x 7.7x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 81.5% 39.3% 23.8% 18.5% 32.1%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 170.5% 171.8% 137.2% 142.5% 137.4%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 117.6% 89.9% 56.5% 56.3% 58.3%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

325 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Steinhoff International Holdings Ltd. (SHF SJ)<br />

Sector: Consumer Discretionary Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Consumer Durables & Apparel Debt Service Cover (x) 1.3x<br />

Country: South Africa<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 61.1%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.4x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Steinhoff International Holdings Ltd. operates a vertically integrated and geographically diverse business<br />

model. It is a holding company for a group of companies that manufactures, sources, warehouses,<br />

distributes and retails furniture and household goods in Europe, Pacific Rim and southern Africa. It<br />

provides raw materials required in production of household goods, which include foam and textiles that<br />

are used in the company's operations and for sale to third parties.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 30 Jun) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (ZAR m) 7,816 9,721 4,453 6,078 2,817<br />

Gross Debt (ZAR m) 30,499 41,086 35,714 29,931 26,514<br />

Interest Expense (ZAR m) (1,871) (2,104) (2,688) (2,298) (1,976)<br />

EBIT (ZAR m) 5,424 8,011 9,594 10,245 10,885<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 74.7% 76.6% 61.1% 45.0% 36.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 70.4% 80.8% 68.2% 66.7% 63.9%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 3.7x 3.6x 3.2x 2.6x 2.1x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.8x 1.7x 1.3x 1.7x 2.2x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 2.9x 3.8x 3.6x 4.5x 5.5x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (ZAR m) 43,040 80,434 109,643 117,999 127,163<br />

% Change (YoY) 21.2% 86.9% 36.3% 7.6% 7.8%<br />

EBITDA (ZAR m) 6,681 9,812 11,843 12,505 13,163<br />

% of Sales 15.5% 12.2% 10.8% 10.6% 10.4%<br />

Net Income (ZAR m) 4,986 5,345 5,914 6,646 7,351<br />

% of Sales 11.6% 6.6% 5.4% 5.6% 5.8%<br />

Free Cash Flow (ZAR m) (743) (3,071) 1,573 6,491 788<br />

% of Sales (1.7%) (3.8%) 1.4% 5.5% 0.6%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 6,672 7,816 9,721 4,453 6,078<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (743) (3,071) 1,573 6,491 788<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 5,929 4,745 11,294 10,944 6,866<br />

Principal Repayments 6,080 3,196 5,372 4,283 3,417<br />

Interest Payments 1,871 2,104 2,688 2,298 1,976<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 7,951 5,300 8,060 6,581 5,393<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.7x 0.9x 1.4x 1.7x 1.3x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In ZAR m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 9,721 35.0%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 19,833 71.4%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 29,554 106.4%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 10,313 37.1%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 39,867 143.5%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 27,785 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(ZAR m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 43,281 49,985 51,491<br />

Preferred Stock 3,837 3,837 3,837<br />

Debt 41,086 35,714 29,931<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

1.8x<br />

1.6x<br />

5.0x<br />

1.4x<br />

4.0x<br />

1.2x<br />

1.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

0.8x<br />

0.6x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.2x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

1.8x<br />

1.7x<br />

1.6x<br />

1.4x<br />

1.2x<br />

1.4x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.9x<br />

0.8x<br />

0.6x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.7x<br />

2011A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EI607944 Corp Convertible Company Guarantee EUR 467.5 467.5 100.00 17-Mar-2011 31-Mar-2018 4.50% 2<br />

EJ373944 Corp Convertible Company Guarantee EUR 420.0 420.0 100.00 26-Sep-2012 26-May-2017 6.38% 2<br />

EI406823 Corp Convertible Company Guarantee EUR 390.0 390.0 100.00 22-Sep-2010 22-May-2016 5.00% 2<br />

326 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (ZAr)<br />

46.6%<br />

4.4%<br />

49.1%<br />

39.9%<br />

4.3%<br />

55.8%<br />

35.1%<br />

4.5%<br />

60.4%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Preferred Stock Debt<br />

3,389<br />

2,889<br />

2,389<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

1,889<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Steinhoff International Holdings Ltd.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (ZAR m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 43,040 80,434 109,643 117,999 127,163<br />

Operating Expenses (37,332) (71,749) (98,983) (106,737) (115,304)<br />

EBITDA 6,681 9,812 11,843 12,505 13,163<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (1,257) (1,801) (2,248) (2,260) (2,278)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 5,424 8,011 9,594 10,245 10,885<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (1,175) (1,378) (1,902) (1,683) (1,427)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 112 (60) 13 14 15<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 55 345 189 204 221<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 4,253 6,906 7,895 8,781 9,694<br />

Taxes on Profit (435) (863) (1,161) (1,259) (1,414)<br />

Minority Interests (208) (388) (471) (527) (580)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 1,376 (310) (349) (349) (349)<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 4,986 5,345 5,914 6,646 7,351<br />

Balance Sheet (ZAR m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 28,589 35,426 38,529 41,655 44,788<br />

Long-term Investments 5,471 1,356 1,831 2,306 2,781<br />

Associates 4,274 2,353 2,542 2,747 2,967<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 35,930 49,406 49,227 49,058 48,898<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 74,749 90,521 94,316 98,110 101,901<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 18,354 32,820 38,996 39,934 44,100<br />

Total Current Assets 26,170 42,541 43,449 46,012 46,917<br />

Total Assets 100,919 133,062 137,765 144,122 148,818<br />

Shareholders' Equity 33,749 43,292 47,753 55,308 61,994<br />

Total Equity 40,830 53,637 58,475 66,451 73,600<br />

Long Term Debt 26,112 33,858 29,850 25,091 22,442<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 35,448 44,639 40,220 35,187 32,354<br />

Total Current Liabilities 24,641 34,786 39,070 42,484 42,864<br />

Total Liabilities 60,089 79,425 79,290 77,671 75,218<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 100,919 133,062 137,765 144,122 148,818<br />

Cash Flow Statement (ZAR m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 4,253 6,906 7,895 8,781 9,694<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 1,257 1,801 2,248 2,260 2,278<br />

Tax Paid (573) (771) (1,393) (1,259) (1,414)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 259 620 (529) 3,397 (3,039)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 5,676 7,829 7,438 12,356 6,653<br />

Capital Expenditure (6,419) (10,900) (5,865) (5,865) (5,865)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (9,076) 1,504 (16) 9 33<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (15,100) (9,403) (5,881) (5,856) (5,832)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 7,526 3,396 (5,372) (4,283) (3,417)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (182) (133) (1,453) (591) (665)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 10,307 3,038 (6,824) (4,874) (4,082)<br />

Change in Cash 883 1,464 (5,268) 1,625 (3,261)<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 15.5% 12.2% 10.8% 10.6% 10.4%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 12.6% 10.0% 8.8% 8.7% 8.6%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 11.6% 6.6% 5.4% 5.6% 5.8%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 17.5% 13.9% 13.0% 12.9% 12.5%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 8.1% 7.8% 7.7% 7.7% 7.8%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 9.7% 9.0% 8.7% 9.2% 9.4%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 74.7% 76.6% 61.1% 45.0% 36.0%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 59.2% 61.7% 56.4% 38.5% 34.5%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 277.0% 303.7% 297.5% 273.5% 249.7%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.8x 1.7x 1.3x 1.7x 2.2x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 2.9x 3.8x 3.6x 4.5x 5.5x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 25.7% 23.0% 7.0% 10.3% 2.6%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 106.2% 122.3% 111.2% 108.3% 109.5%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 70.4% 80.8% 68.2% 66.7% 63.9%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

327 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Sterlite Industries India Ltd. (STLT IN)<br />

Sector: Materials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Materials<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 2.5x<br />

Country: India<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 23.2%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 8.5x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Sterlite Industries (India) Limited and its consolidated subsidiaries are engaged in non-ferrous metals<br />

and mining in India and Australia. The company was incorporated on September 8, 1975 and has<br />

established itself as India’s largest non-ferrous metals and mining company with its primary business<br />

spread across aluminium, copper, zinc, lead and power. The company's world class mining and smelting<br />

assets ensure low cost of operations across all base metals (especially zinc).<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Mar) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Rs m) 221,465 229,591 315,525 324,311 368,972<br />

Gross Debt (Rs m) 109,476 144,725 151,048 142,412 84,343<br />

Interest Expense (Rs m) (4,400) (10,752) (9,578) (9,722) (7,982)<br />

EBIT (Rs m) 70,197 80,335 76,803 92,108 103,323<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 21.2% 24.8% 23.2% 19.7% 10.5%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 240.8% 218.5% 195.8% 231.1% 246.1%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 1.3x 1.3x 1.5x 1.3x 0.9x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 3.6x 0.3x 2.5x 1.9x 1.6x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 16.0x 7.5x 8.0x 9.5x 12.9x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (Rs m) 304,285 411,789 436,034 477,933 515,850<br />

% Change (YoY) 24.2% 35.3% 5.9% 9.6% 7.9%<br />

EBITDA (Rs m) 80,498 98,633 96,931 116,424 130,565<br />

% of Sales 26.5% 24.0% 22.2% 24.4% 25.3%<br />

Net Income (Rs m) 50,425 48,279 56,095 57,688 63,834<br />

% of Sales 16.6% 11.7% 12.9% 12.1% 12.4%<br />

Free Cash Flow (Rs m) 4,500 9,604 60,319 1,330 85,026<br />

% of Sales 1.5% 2.3% 13.8% 0.3% 16.5%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 231,660 221,465 229,591 315,525 324,311<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 4,500 9,604 60,319 1,330 85,026<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 236,161 231,069 289,910 316,855 409,337<br />

Principal Repayments 14,276 283,517 24,672 39,672 54,672<br />

Interest Payments 4,400 10,752 9,578 9,722 7,982<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 18,676 294,270 34,249 49,394 62,653<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 12.6x 0.8x 8.5x 6.4x 6.5x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In Rs m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 229,591 92.1%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 273,616 109.7%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 503,207 201.8%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 503,207 201.8%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 249,420 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

27.9% 27.0% 25.9%<br />

72.1% 73.0% 74.1%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(Rs m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 373,262 408,219 408,219<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 144,725 151,048 142,412<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

4.0x<br />

18.0x<br />

3.5x<br />

16.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

14.0x<br />

2.5x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

12.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

14.0x<br />

12.6x<br />

12.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.8x<br />

2011A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EI014303 Corp Convertible Senior Unsecured US$ 500.0 500.0 100.00 29-Oct-2009 30-Oct-2014 4.00% 2<br />

EI521782 Corp Callable/Sink Secured Rs 7,500.0 7,500.0 100.00 09-Dec-2010 09-Dec-2023 9.80% 4<br />

EI069243 Corp Sink Senior Secured Rs 5,000.0 5,000.0 100.00 17-Nov-2008 17-Nov-2015 12.25% 1<br />

328 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (Rs)<br />

10.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

156<br />

136<br />

116<br />

96<br />

8.5x<br />

6.4x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

76<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Sterlite Industries India Ltd.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (Rs m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 304,285 411,789 436,034 477,933 515,850<br />

Operating Expenses (223,787) (313,156) (339,103) (361,508) (385,285)<br />

EBITDA 80,498 98,633 96,931 116,424 130,565<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (10,301) (18,298) (20,127) (24,316) (27,241)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 70,197 80,335 76,803 92,108 103,323<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 9,018 9,176 10,166 11,469 13,197<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 11,495 6,845 9,632 6,789 7,083<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 91,337 98,717 97,814 111,582 124,827<br />

Taxes on Profit (18,116) (21,106) (16,692) (28,153) (32,444)<br />

Minority Interests (19,945) (21,609) (25,796) (26,528) (29,355)<br />

Other Post-tax Items (2,850) (7,723) 769 787 806<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 50,425 48,279 56,095 57,688 63,834<br />

Balance Sheet (Rs m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 174,396 213,524 295,086 334,344 360,892<br />

Long-term Investments 2,594 32,033 32,801 33,589 34,395<br />

Associates 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 39,585 41,206 41,113 41,020 40,926<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 355,776 457,910 511,095 544,628 565,453<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 167,216 167,326 174,311 179,964 188,743<br />

Total Current Assets 388,681 396,918 489,836 504,275 557,715<br />

Total Assets 744,457 854,827 1,000,931 1,048,903 1,123,168<br />

Shareholders' Equity 414,355 460,557 503,921 548,516 595,956<br />

Total Equity 517,268 582,547 651,707 722,830 799,625<br />

Long Term Debt 53,555 74,486 77,589 71,692 48,795<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 87,173 111,227 125,368 130,466 120,537<br />

Total Current Liabilities 140,017 161,053 223,856 195,608 203,006<br />

Total Liabilities 227,190 272,281 349,224 326,073 323,543<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 744,457 854,827 1,000,931 1,048,903 1,123,168<br />

Cash Flow Statement (Rs m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 91,337 98,717 97,814 111,582 124,827<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 10,301 18,298 20,127 24,316 27,241<br />

Tax Paid (17,346) (23,828) (16,692) (28,153) (32,444)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (3,192) 5,516 37,694 (44,618) 29,159<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 58,509 83,998 125,319 46,330 130,026<br />

Capital Expenditure (54,009) (74,394) (65,000) (45,000) (45,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 76,052 (7,619) (35,185) (31,378) (24,796)<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (8,830) (95,215) (77,653) (50,894) (44,223)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 25,628 30,457 5,328 (9,672) (59,145)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net (16) 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (5,018) (13,113) (4,530) (10,698) (11,002)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 16,043 6,616 1,221 (20,092) (68,128)<br />

Change in Cash 65,722 (4,602) 48,887 (24,655) 17,675<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 26.5% 24.0% 22.2% 24.4% 25.3%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 23.1% 19.5% 17.6% 19.3% 20.0%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 16.6% 11.7% 12.9% 12.1% 12.4%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 12.9% 11.0% 11.6% 11.0% 11.2%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 12.2% 12.3% 10.4% 11.1% 11.5%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 14.8% 13.5% 12.7% 12.9% 13.7%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 21.2% 24.8% 23.2% 19.7% 10.5%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 2.8% 10.2% 2.6% 4.5% -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 172.9% 182.8% 192.4% 194.8% 189.8%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 3.6x 0.3x 2.5x 1.9x 1.6x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 16.0x 7.5x 8.0x 9.5x 12.9x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 67.9% 53.0% 60.0% 56.0% 62.7%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 277.6% 246.5% 218.8% 257.8% 274.7%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 240.8% 218.5% 195.8% 231.1% 246.1%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

329 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. (SUNP IN)<br />

Sector: Health Care Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology Debt Service Cover (x) 31.6x<br />

Country: India<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 2.0%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 59.9x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited (Sun Pharma) is an Indian pharmaceutical company that<br />

manufactures and sells formulation and bulk drugs, both in domestic and international markets. It is<br />

India’s sixth largest branded generic player, with a product basket comprising more than 500<br />

formulations. The company has a strong presence in key therapy areas such as Cardiology, Psychiatry,<br />

Neurology, Gastroenterology and Diabetes.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Mar) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Rs m) 40,884 49,911 76,155 106,462 139,885<br />

Gross Debt (Rs m) 3,651 2,650 3,126 1,564 1,039<br />

Interest Expense (Rs m) (866) (286) (780) (211) (117)<br />

EBIT (Rs m) 17,583 29,132 41,715 43,751 47,656<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 3.5% 2.0% 2.0% 0.8% 0.5%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 352.6% 326.6% 368.1% 388.4% 419.4%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.1x 0.1x 0.1x 0.0x 0.0x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 14.9x 20.7x 31.6x 22.0x 67.0x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 20.3x 102.0x 53.5x 207.3x 406.9x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (Rs m) 57,279 80,195 105,498 120,608 136,639<br />

% Change (YoY) 42.9% 40.0% 31.6% 14.3% 13.3%<br />

EBITDA (Rs m) 19,631 32,043 45,096 47,386 51,568<br />

% of Sales 34.3% 40.0% 42.7% 39.3% 37.7%<br />

Net Income (Rs m) 18,161 25,873 26,957 34,581 38,751<br />

% of Sales 31.7% 32.3% 25.6% 28.7% 28.4%<br />

Free Cash Flow (Rs m) 18,613 16,353 28,227 32,442 34,276<br />

% of Sales 32.5% 20.4% 26.8% 26.9% 25.1%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 28,116 40,884 49,911 76,155 106,462<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 18,613 16,353 28,227 32,442 34,276<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 46,728 57,236 78,138 108,597 140,738<br />

Principal Repayments 422 1,120 524 1,562 524<br />

Interest Payments 866 286 780 211 117<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 1,288 1,406 1,304 1,773 641<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 36.3x 40.7x 59.9x 61.2x 219.4x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In Rs m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 49,911 1,266.9%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 174,123 4,419.9%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 224,034 5,686.9%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 224,034 5,686.9%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 3,939 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

330 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

0.4%<br />

99.6%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(Rs m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 590,230 767,263 767,263<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 2,650 3,126 1,564<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

35.0x<br />

250.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

200.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

150.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

100.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

70.0x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

0.4%<br />

99.6%<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Share Price (Rs)<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

0.2%<br />

99.8%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

60.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

921<br />

821<br />

721<br />

621<br />

521<br />

36.3x<br />

40.7x<br />

59.9x<br />

61.2x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

421<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd.<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (Rs m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 57,279 80,195 105,498 120,608 136,639<br />

Operating Expenses (37,648) (48,152) (60,402) (73,222) (85,071)<br />

EBITDA 19,631 32,043 45,096 47,386 51,568<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (2,049) (2,912) (3,381) (3,635) (3,913)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 17,583 29,132 41,715 43,751 47,656<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 1,494 1,696 2,353 4,360 6,064<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 1,309 2,734 855 978 1,108<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 20,392 33,565 39,087 49,089 54,827<br />

Taxes on Profit (1,286) (3,826) (7,484) (9,629) (10,792)<br />

Minority Interests (913) (3,855) (4,646) (4,878) (5,285)<br />

Other Post-tax Items (32) (11) 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 18,161 25,873 26,957 34,581 38,751<br />

Balance Sheet (Rs m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 22,334 26,135 27,111 28,252 29,391<br />

Long-term Investments 3,460 5,890 5,886 5,886 5,886<br />

Associates 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 10,599 13,378 13,018 12,667 12,321<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 47,801 61,196 62,613 64,117 65,146<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 35,047 51,497 62,009 69,104 76,773<br />

Total Current Assets 75,931 101,408 138,164 175,566 216,658<br />

Total Assets 123,731 162,604 200,777 239,683 281,804<br />

Shareholders' Equity 94,833 121,664 143,364 171,202 202,397<br />

Total Equity 103,305 133,278 159,624 192,340 228,820<br />

Long Term Debt 1,573 1,554 1,835 918 610<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 3,118 4,667 10,671 9,754 9,446<br />

Total Current Liabilities 17,309 24,659 30,482 37,589 43,537<br />

Total Liabilities 20,427 29,326 41,153 47,343 52,984<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 123,731 162,604 200,777 239,683 281,804<br />

Cash Flow Statement (Rs m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 20,392 33,565 39,087 49,089 54,827<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 2,049 2,912 3,381 3,635 3,913<br />

Tax Paid (693) (2,268) (4,819) (6,201) (6,950)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 4,877 (10,033) (7,875) (4,542) (6,122)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 22,831 23,482 33,262 37,627 39,611<br />

Capital Expenditure (4,219) (7,129) (5,035) (5,185) (5,335)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (14,406) (2,076) 301 324 350<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (18,477) (8,647) (1,602) (290) 1,197<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (3,787) (1,049) 476 (1,562) (524)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (3,320) (4,096) (5,115) (5,257) (6,743)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (8,042) (5,444) (5,419) (7,030) (7,385)<br />

Change in Cash (3,688) 9,391 26,241 30,307 33,422<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 34.3% 40.0% 42.7% 39.3% 37.7%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 30.7% 36.3% 39.5% 36.3% 34.9%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 31.7% 32.3% 25.6% 28.7% 28.4%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 21.0% 23.9% 20.3% 22.0% 20.7%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 18.5% 21.7% 24.7% 21.9% 20.6%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 29.8% 35.0% 39.0% 39.1% 41.8%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 3.5% 2.0% 2.0% 0.8% 0.5%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 123.9% 132.3% 137.1% 140.0% 139.6%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 14.9x 20.7x 31.6x 22.0x 67.0x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 20.3x 102.0x 53.5x 207.3x 406.9x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 127.4% 136.6% 196.6% 240.0% 284.0%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 438.7% 411.2% 453.3% 467.1% 497.6%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 352.6% 326.6% 368.1% 388.4% 419.4%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

331 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Taiwan Mobile Co., Ltd. (3045 TT)<br />

Sector: Telecommunication Services Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Telecommunication Services Debt Service Cover (x) 5.6x<br />

Country: Taiwan<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 27.2%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 5.1x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Taiwan Mobile Company Limited (TWM) is one of the largest telecommunications service providers in<br />

Taiwan offering Quadruple Play services covering mobile, fixed-line, cable TV and broadband. The<br />

company was incorporated in the Republic of China (ROC) in 1997. It obtained a GSM 1800 network<br />

operating license the same year and started commercial services in 1998. The company was the first<br />

wireless operator to launch 3G services in Taiwan in 2005 to herald the start of a new era in mobile<br />

communications and went on to launch 3.5G services in 2007.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (NT$ m) 6,251 6,972 4,108 4,805 9,242<br />

Gross Debt (NT$ m) 14,003 17,899 13,899 9,899 9,899<br />

Interest Expense (NT$ m) (320) (241) (278) (208) (173)<br />

EBIT (NT$ m) 18,308 17,590 18,381 20,045 20,473<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 27.5% 35.8% 27.2% 18.1% 17.4%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 60.7% 44.2% 35.4% 42.2% 54.6%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.5x 0.6x 0.6x 0.4x 0.3x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 5.3x 4.4x 5.6x 6.1x 185.2x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 57.3x 73.0x 66.1x 96.3x 118.2x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (NT$ m) 70,146 81,369 96,610 103,624 107,439<br />

% Change (YoY) 2.4% 16.0% 18.7% 7.3% 3.7%<br />

EBITDA (NT$ m) 27,465 27,087 28,309 30,814 32,079<br />

% of Sales 39.2% 33.3% 29.3% 29.7% 29.9%<br />

Net Income (NT$ m) 13,822 13,469 14,897 16,730 17,135<br />

% of Sales 19.7% 16.6% 15.4% 16.1% 15.9%<br />

Free Cash Flow (NT$ m) 19,797 18,843 14,910 17,785 19,168<br />

% of Sales 28.2% 23.2% 15.4% 17.2% 17.8%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 3,177 6,251 6,972 4,108 4,805<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 19,797 18,843 14,910 17,785 19,168<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 22,974 25,094 21,882 21,893 23,972<br />

Principal Repayments 3,897 4,967 4,000 4,000 0<br />

Interest Payments 320 241 278 208 173<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 4,216 5,208 4,278 4,208 173<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 5.4x 4.8x 5.1x 5.2x 138.4x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In NT$ m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 6,972 77.4%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 91,783 1,019.1%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 98,754 1,096.5%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 98,754 1,096.5%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 9,006 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(NT$ m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 322,927 366,029 354,056<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 17,899 13,899 9,899<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

5.5x<br />

5.4x<br />

5.4x<br />

5.3x<br />

5.2x<br />

5.1x<br />

5.0x<br />

5.1x<br />

5.2x<br />

4.9x<br />

4.8x<br />

4.7x<br />

4.6x<br />

4.5x<br />

4.8x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EH587094 Corp Sink Unsecured NT$ 8,000.0 8,000.0 100.00 14-Nov-2008 14-Nov-2013 2.88% 1<br />

332 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (NT$)<br />

5.3%<br />

94.7%<br />

3.7%<br />

96.3%<br />

2.7%<br />

97.3%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

7.0x<br />

120.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

100.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

80.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

60.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

144<br />

134<br />

124<br />

114<br />

104<br />

94<br />

84<br />

74<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Taiwan Mobile Co., Ltd.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (NT$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 70,146 81,369 96,610 103,624 107,439<br />

Operating Expenses (42,681) (54,283) (68,301) (72,810) (75,359)<br />

EBITDA 27,465 27,087 28,309 30,814 32,079<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (9,157) (9,497) (9,928) (10,769) (11,606)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 18,308 17,590 18,381 20,045 20,473<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (277) (141) (212) (156) (89)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 466 354 575 575 575<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits (26) (25) 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 17,101 16,129 18,222 20,464 20,960<br />

Taxes on Profit (3,284) (2,502) (3,098) (3,479) (3,563)<br />

Minority Interests 4 (157) (227) (255) (261)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 13,822 13,469 14,897 16,730 17,135<br />

Balance Sheet (NT$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 41,034 38,396 40,530 40,195 38,888<br />

Long-term Investments 2,809 1,599 1,489 1,390 1,301<br />

Associates 388 563 563 563 563<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 20,347 27,252 26,337 25,536 24,834<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 70,242 73,662 74,769 73,533 71,435<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 8,992 11,161 11,600 12,351 12,773<br />

Total Current Assets 15,242 18,133 15,708 17,155 22,014<br />

Total Assets 85,484 91,794 90,477 90,688 93,449<br />

Shareholders' Equity 50,870 48,948 49,831 53,006 54,919<br />

Total Equity 50,899 50,064 51,173 54,604 56,777<br />

Long Term Debt 10,300 4,000 0 0 0<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 11,353 5,376 1,391 1,391 1,391<br />

Total Current Liabilities 23,232 36,354 37,913 34,694 35,281<br />

Total Liabilities 34,585 41,730 39,303 36,085 36,672<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 85,484 91,794 90,477 90,688 93,449<br />

Cash Flow Statement (NT$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 17,101 16,129 18,222 20,464 20,960<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 9,157 9,497 9,928 10,769 11,606<br />

Tax Paid (2,981) (3,371) (3,100) (3,365) (3,504)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 590 (159) 1,103 17 161<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 25,994 25,260 26,710 27,785 29,168<br />

Capital Expenditure (6,196) (6,417) (11,800) (10,000) (10,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 61 (8,606) 131 367 403<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (6,320) (15,436) (11,560) (9,534) (9,508)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (1,597) 3,897 (4,000) (4,000) 0<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (15,028) (12,440) (13,881) (13,407) (15,057)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (16,630) (11,502) (18,014) (17,555) (15,223)<br />

Change in Cash 3,044 (1,677) (2,864) 697 4,437<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 39.2% 33.3% 29.3% 29.7% 29.9%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 26.1% 21.6% 19.0% 19.3% 19.1%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 19.7% 16.6% 15.4% 16.1% 15.9%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 26.9% 27.0% 30.2% 32.5% 31.8%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 21.4% 20.0% 20.2% 22.2% 22.3%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 24.9% 25.5% 25.3% 27.9% 29.3%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 27.5% 35.8% 27.2% 18.1% 17.4%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 15.6% 22.4% 19.7% 9.8% 1.6%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 166.5% 177.6% 184.5% 176.2% 170.6%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 5.3x 4.4x 5.6x 6.1x 185.2x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 57.3x 73.0x 66.1x 96.3x 118.2x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 26.0% 18.4% 10.1% 13.0% 25.4%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 65.6% 49.9% 41.4% 49.4% 62.4%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 60.7% 44.2% 35.4% 42.2% 54.6%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

333 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (2330 TT)<br />

Sector: Information Technology Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Semiconductors & Semiconductor Debt Service Cover (x) 26.5x<br />

Country: Taiwan<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 13.7%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 17.4x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. was incorporated in 1987. The principal business of the<br />

company is to fabricate chips on silicon wafers based on designs provided by either customers, or third<br />

party or also, designed by company itself. The chips manufactured by company are used in computer<br />

products, communications products and consumer electronic products. Its customers are Integrated<br />

Design Manufacturers, Fabless and Systems companies.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (NT$ m) 181,574 150,622 155,908 122,708 180,318<br />

Gross Debt (NT$ m) 36,952 50,948 99,200 94,426 90,983<br />

Interest Expense (NT$ m) (425) (627) (1,113) (1,439) (1,378)<br />

EBIT (NT$ m) 159,175 141,557 181,248 209,299 227,688<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 6.4% 8.1% 13.7% 11.3% 9.6%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 189.2% 171.3% 196.8% 189.0% 202.4%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.1x 0.2x 0.2x 0.3x 0.2x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 173.8x 280.9x 26.5x 53.3x 73.1x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 374.2x 225.9x 162.8x 145.4x 165.3x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (NT$ m) 419,538 427,081 508,581 586,193 634,247<br />

% Change (YoY) 41.9% 1.8% 19.1% 15.3% 8.2%<br />

EBITDA (NT$ m) 246,985 249,239 309,801 359,349 383,880<br />

% of Sales 58.9% 58.4% 60.9% 61.3% 60.5%<br />

Net Income (NT$ m) 161,605 134,201 169,160 190,079 204,114<br />

% of Sales 38.5% 31.4% 33.3% 32.4% 32.2%<br />

Free Cash Flow (NT$ m) 42,532 33,625 38,190 50,116 149,783<br />

% of Sales 10.1% 7.9% 7.5% 8.5% 23.6%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 195,797 181,574 150,622 155,908 122,708<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 42,532 33,625 38,190 50,116 149,783<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 238,329 215,199 188,812 206,024 272,491<br />

Principal Repayments 949 241 9,748 4,773 3,444<br />

Interest Payments 425 627 1,113 1,439 1,378<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 1,375 868 10,861 6,212 4,821<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 173.4x 247.9x 17.4x 33.2x 56.5x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In NT$ m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 150,622 371.4%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 515,845 1,272.1%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 666,467 1,643.5%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 666,467 1,643.5%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 40,551 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(NT$ m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 1,964,450 2,513,874 2,617,538<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 50,948 99,200 94,426<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

300.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

17.4x<br />

33.2x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EJ318630 Corp At Maturity Senior Unsecured NT$ 12,700.0 12,700.0 100.00 26-Sep-2012 26-Sep-2017 1.28% 1<br />

EI791169 Corp At Maturity Senior Unsecured NT$ 10,500.0 10,500.0 100.00 28-Sep-2011 28-Sep-2016 1.40% 1<br />

EI897510 Corp At Maturity Senior Unsecured NT$ 10,000.0 10,000.0 100.00 11-Jan-2012 11-Jan-2017 1.29% 1<br />

334 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

2.5%<br />

97.5%<br />

3.8%<br />

96.2%<br />

3.5%<br />

96.5%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

300.0x<br />

400.0x<br />

250.0x<br />

350.0x<br />

300.0x<br />

200.0x<br />

250.0x<br />

150.0x<br />

200.0x<br />

100.0x<br />

150.0x<br />

100.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (NT$)<br />

250.0x<br />

200.0x<br />

150.0x<br />

100.0x<br />

123<br />

113<br />

103<br />

93<br />

83<br />

73<br />

173.4x<br />

247.9x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

63<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (NT$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 419,538 427,081 508,581 586,193 634,247<br />

Operating Expenses (172,552) (177,842) (198,780) (226,845) (250,367)<br />

EBITDA 246,985 249,239 309,801 359,349 383,880<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (87,810) (107,682) (128,553) (150,050) (156,192)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 159,175 141,557 181,248 209,299 227,688<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 1,240 853 277 (187) (24)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 8,566 2,404 407 407 407<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 2,298 898 1,793 1,661 1,584<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 170,270 145,148 183,724 211,180 229,656<br />

Taxes on Profit (7,988) (10,694) (14,733) (21,101) (25,541)<br />

Minority Interests (677) (252) 169 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 161,605 134,201 169,160 190,079 204,114<br />

Balance Sheet (NT$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 302,292 373,511 419,358 458,174 478,865<br />

Long-term Investments 13,960 9,558 7,815 6,544 5,605<br />

Associates 25,815 24,900 23,724 22,635 21,595<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 11,732 10,862 10,449 10,145 9,923<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 457,410 549,005 665,372 781,623 874,114<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 79,945 74,638 96,741 126,212 98,071<br />

Total Current Assets 261,519 225,260 252,649 248,921 278,389<br />

Total Assets 718,929 774,265 918,021 1,030,544 1,152,503<br />

Shareholders' Equity 574,145 629,594 720,917 832,844 948,952<br />

Total Equity 578,704 632,044 723,198 835,125 951,233<br />

Long Term Debt 5,497 20,458 77,833 77,708 77,583<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 17,033 25,215 82,590 82,465 82,340<br />

Total Current Liabilities 123,191 117,007 112,233 112,954 118,931<br />

Total Liabilities 140,224 142,221 194,823 195,418 201,270<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 718,929 774,265 918,021 1,030,544 1,152,503<br />

Cash Flow Statement (NT$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 170,270 145,148 183,724 211,180 229,656<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 87,810 107,682 128,553 150,050 156,192<br />

Tax Paid (9,818) (7,677) (11,095) (15,468) (19,870)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (13,917) 3,926 (14,352) (24,103) 37,437<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 229,476 247,587 284,368 317,116 398,783<br />

Capital Expenditure (186,944) (213,963) (246,178) (267,000) (249,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (6,380) 28,942 2,877 2,070 1,501<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (202,086) (182,523) (244,963) (266,592) (249,161)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 30,247 13,820 48,252 (4,773) (3,444)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 245 146 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (77,708) (77,730) (77,837) (78,152) (88,007)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (48,638) (67,858) (32,984) (82,925) (91,450)<br />

Change in Cash (21,248) (2,794) 6,421 (32,401) 58,172<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 58.9% 58.4% 60.9% 61.3% 60.5%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 37.9% 33.1% 35.6% 35.7% 35.9%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 38.5% 31.4% 33.3% 32.4% 32.2%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 30.2% 22.3% 25.1% 24.5% 22.9%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 24.5% 19.2% 21.6% 21.6% 21.0%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 44.1% 28.9% 29.2% 26.5% 25.0%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 6.4% 8.1% 13.7% 11.3% 9.6%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 122.9% 124.0% 125.3% 125.4% 122.5%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 173.8x 280.9x 26.5x 53.3x 73.1x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 374.2x 225.9x 162.8x 145.4x 165.3x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 120.0% 122.6% 133.6% 104.0% 147.7%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 212.3% 192.5% 225.1% 220.4% 234.1%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 189.2% 171.3% 196.8% 189.0% 202.4%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

335 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. (TCS IN)<br />

Sector: Information Technology Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Software & Services<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 101.7x<br />

Country: India<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 0.6%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 125.4x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Headquartered in Mumbai, Tata Consultancy Services Limited is India’s largest Information Technology<br />

Services Company. It is a part of India's leading industrial conglomerate – the Tata Group. TCS offers a<br />

consulting-led, integrated portfolio of IT and IT-enabled services such as application development and<br />

maintenance, enterprise solutions, business intelligence, infrastructure services, and business process<br />

outsourcing across various industry verticals such as banking and financial services, manufacturing,<br />

retail and distribution, telecom etc.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Mar) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Rs m) 53,848 67,762 125,635 188,417 268,350<br />

Gross Debt (Rs m) 748 1,266 2,040 1,387 945<br />

Interest Expense (Rs m) (265) (224) (354) (377) (257)<br />

EBIT (Rs m) 104,438 135,386 168,960 185,669 208,807<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 0.3% 0.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 234.8% 222.2% 224.1% 250.6% 273.8%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 166.2x 235.8x 101.7x 161.1x 268.7x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 394.1x 605.2x 477.7x 492.4x 813.9x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (Rs m) 373,245 488,938 622,626 696,450 769,988<br />

% Change (YoY) 24.3% 31.0% 27.3% 11.9% 10.6%<br />

EBITDA (Rs m) 111,791 144,565 179,961 198,832 224,094<br />

% of Sales 30.0% 29.6% 28.9% 28.5% 29.1%<br />

Net Income (Rs m) 90,570 103,915 132,022 150,484 174,726<br />

% of Sales 24.3% 21.3% 21.2% 21.6% 22.7%<br />

Free Cash Flow (Rs m) 47,878 50,013 109,934 120,940 139,246<br />

% of Sales 12.8% 10.2% 17.7% 17.4% 18.1%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 71,780 53,848 67,762 125,635 188,417<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 47,878 50,013 109,934 120,940 138,934<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 119,658 103,861 177,695 246,575 327,350<br />

Principal Repayments 340 294 1,063 641 430<br />

Interest Payments 265 224 354 377 257<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 605 518 1,417 1,018 686<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 197.8x 200.5x 125.4x 242.2x 477.1x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In Rs m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 67,762 1,698.3%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 690,520 17,306.1%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 758,282 19,004.3%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 22,450 562.7%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 780,732 19,567.0%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 3,990 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

336 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

0.1%<br />

99.9%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(Rs m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 2,287,600 2,472,557 2,472,557<br />

Preferred Stock 1,000 1,000 1,000<br />

Debt 1,266 2,040 1,387<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

300.0x<br />

0.1%<br />

99.9%<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

0.1%<br />

99.9%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

250.0x<br />

700.0x<br />

200.0x<br />

600.0x<br />

500.0x<br />

150.0x<br />

400.0x<br />

100.0x<br />

300.0x<br />

200.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

100.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (Rs)<br />

250.0x<br />

200.0x<br />

150.0x<br />

100.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

1705<br />

1505<br />

1305<br />

1105<br />

197.8x<br />

200.5x<br />

125.4x<br />

242.2x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

905<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Tata Consultancy Services Ltd.<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (Rs m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 373,245 488,938 622,626 696,450 769,988<br />

Operating Expenses (261,454) (344,373) (442,665) (497,618) (545,894)<br />

EBITDA 111,791 144,565 179,961 198,832 224,094<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (7,353) (9,179) (11,001) (13,163) (15,287)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 104,438 135,386 168,960 185,669 208,807<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 4,708 7,430 8,868 17,928 28,773<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 1,086 (3,367) 52 68 68<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 110,206 139,233 177,879 203,664 237,648<br />

Taxes on Profit (18,308) (33,999) (44,222) (51,339) (60,815)<br />

Minority Interests (1,215) (1,100) (1,470) (1,676) (1,942)<br />

Other Post-tax Items (113) (220) (165) (165) (165)<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 90,570 103,915 132,022 150,484 174,726<br />

Balance Sheet (Rs m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 39,353 48,207 57,127 63,407 67,208<br />

Long-term Investments 10,787 5,777 5,777 5,777 5,777<br />

Associates 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 35,438 38,413 37,942 37,460 36,968<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 156,446 181,194 198,107 207,862 215,433<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 116,516 164,989 186,034 198,318 212,773<br />

Total Current Assets 170,364 232,751 311,669 386,734 481,123<br />

Total Assets 326,810 413,945 509,776 594,596 696,556<br />

Shareholders' Equity 244,048 294,792 354,334 422,203 500,863<br />

Total Equity 249,630 301,380 362,163 431,445 511,745<br />

Long Term Debt 377 1,154 1,183 952 721<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 4,720 7,915 8,678 8,907 9,200<br />

Total Current Liabilities 72,460 104,650 138,935 154,243 175,612<br />

Total Liabilities 77,181 112,565 147,613 163,151 184,811<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 326,810 413,945 509,776 594,596 696,556<br />

Cash Flow Statement (Rs m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 110,206 139,233 177,879 203,664 237,648<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 7,353 9,179 11,001 13,163 15,287<br />

Tax Paid (22,635) (40,684) (44,222) (51,339) (60,815)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (21,902) (30,630) (8,582) (9,223) (7,030)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 66,144 70,084 127,434 138,440 156,746<br />

Capital Expenditure (18,266) (20,071) (17,500) (17,500) (17,500)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (771) (11,461) 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (14,615) (27,275) (8,211) 872 11,285<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (244) (342) 865 (653) (442)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (46,087) (39,083) (61,860) (75,500) (87,087)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (46,589) (39,551) (61,348) (76,530) (87,785)<br />

Change in Cash 4,939 3,258 57,874 62,781 80,246<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 30.0% 29.6% 28.9% 28.5% 29.1%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 28.0% 27.7% 27.1% 26.7% 27.1%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 24.3% 21.3% 21.2% 21.6% 22.7%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 42.4% 38.6% 40.7% 38.8% 37.9%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 36.4% 38.6% 38.6% 36.9% 36.8%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 58.8% 48.0% 53.3% 57.0% 63.0%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 0.3% 0.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 140.5% 137.5% 142.3% 142.2% 139.9%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 166.2x 235.8x 101.7x 161.1x 268.7x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 394.1x 605.2x 477.7x 492.4x 813.9x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 64.9% 57.4% 84.9% 117.1% 148.4%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 235.1% 222.4% 224.3% 250.7% 274.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 234.8% 222.2% 224.1% 250.6% 273.8%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

337 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Tata Steel Ltd. (TATA IN)<br />

Sector: Materials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Materials<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.3x<br />

Country: India<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 99.5%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.9x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Tata Steel, earlier known as Tata Iron and Steel Company Limited (TISCO) is the tenth largest steel<br />

manufacturing company in the world, with a total installed production capacity of 31 million tonnes. It is<br />

India’s largest steel manufacturing company in the private sector and commands a market share of more<br />

than 13%. The company is well diversified with operations spread across Europe and South East Asia<br />

and operates through 4 main subsidiaries, namely Tata Steel India, Tata Steel Europe, Tata Steel<br />

Thailand and NatSteel Holdings.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Mar) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Rs m) 140,183 122,000 77,718 81,621 50,826<br />

Gross Debt (Rs m) 530,451 499,373 467,931 465,645 443,334<br />

Interest Expense (Rs m) (45,985) (35,421) (36,542) (38,018) (38,510)<br />

EBIT (Rs m) 123,319 79,001 62,411 93,631 104,437<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 139.7% 107.6% 99.5% 94.1% 84.3%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 79.8% 65.2% 50.9% 56.5% 47.3%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 3.2x 4.1x 4.0x 3.0x 2.7x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.3x 0.3x 0.3x 0.7x 0.7x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 2.7x 2.2x 1.7x 2.5x 2.7x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (Rs m) 1,187,531 1,328,997 1,340,967 1,439,001 1,513,652<br />

% Change (YoY) 16.0% 11.9% 0.9% 7.3% 5.2%<br />

EBITDA (Rs m) 167,467 124,168 120,418 154,576 167,692<br />

% of Sales 14.1% 9.3% 9.0% 10.7% 11.1%<br />

Net Income (Rs m) 89,827 53,898 15,855 42,243 49,895<br />

% of Sales 7.6% 4.1% 1.2% 2.9% 3.3%<br />

Free Cash Flow (Rs m) (40,759) (8,523) 32,042 42,581 34,472<br />

% of Sales (3.4%) (0.6%) 2.4% 3.0% 2.3%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 68,151 140,183 122,000 77,718 81,621<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (40,759) (8,522) 32,042 42,581 34,472<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 27,392 131,661 154,041 120,299 116,093<br />

Principal Repayments 341,388 235,490 137,842 108,612 128,112<br />

Interest Payments 45,985 35,421 36,542 38,018 38,510<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 387,374 270,912 174,385 146,630 166,621<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.1x 0.5x 0.9x 0.8x 0.7x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In Rs m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 122,000 15.0%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 228,025 28.0%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 350,025 43.0%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 48,870 6.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 398,895 49.0%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 814,561 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

52.2% 52.4% 52.3%<br />

47.8% 47.6% 47.7%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(Rs m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 458,170 425,538 425,538<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 499,373 467,931 465,645<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

0.8x<br />

3.0x<br />

0.7x<br />

0.6x<br />

2.5x<br />

0.5x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.4x<br />

1.5x<br />

0.3x<br />

0.2x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.1x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

1.0x<br />

0.9x<br />

0.8x<br />

0.7x<br />

0.9x<br />

0.8x<br />

0.6x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.3x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.1x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.1x<br />

2011A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EI047014 Corp Convertible Senior Unsecured US$ 546.9 546.9 100.00 20-Nov-2009 21-Nov-2014 4.50% 2<br />

EI558634 Corp Callable/Sink Unsecured Rs 25,000.0 25,000.0 100.00 06-Jan-2011 06-Jan-2031 10.25% 1<br />

EH866204 Corp At Maturity Senior Secured Rs 15,000.0 15,000.0 100.00 19-May-2009 15-May-2019 11.00% 1<br />

338 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (Rs)<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

585<br />

535<br />

485<br />

435<br />

385<br />

335<br />

285<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Tata Steel Ltd.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (Rs m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 1,187,531 1,328,997 1,340,967 1,439,001 1,513,652<br />

Operating Expenses (1,020,065) (1,204,829) (1,220,549) (1,284,424) (1,345,960)<br />

EBITDA 167,467 124,168 120,418 154,576 167,692<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (44,148) (45,167) (58,007) (60,945) (63,255)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 123,319 79,001 62,411 93,631 104,437<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (36,816) (37,948) (34,459) (33,512) (33,689)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 1,465 6,862 4,220 255 279<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 121,020 85,850 33,025 62,092 72,925<br />

Taxes on Profit (32,459) (36,365) (19,688) (22,569) (26,221)<br />

Minority Interests 603 1,731 1,239 1,226 1,462<br />

Other Post-tax Items 664 2,681 1,279 1,494 1,729<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 89,827 53,898 15,855 42,243 49,895<br />

Balance Sheet (Rs m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 347,781 390,809 431,762 453,262 464,627<br />

Long-term Investments 15,710 14,442 17,697 20,613 23,082<br />

Associates 31,171 11,787 13,943 16,293 18,854<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 170,886 203,740 197,855 192,175 186,695<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 789,993 906,623 922,943 939,546 955,519<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 424,706 443,780 429,555 515,949 458,365<br />

Total Current Assets 564,890 565,779 507,273 597,569 509,191<br />

Total Assets 1,354,882 1,472,402 1,430,215 1,537,115 1,464,711<br />

Shareholders' Equity 370,814 453,360 460,502 486,478 518,755<br />

Total Equity 379,703 464,272 470,174 494,924 525,740<br />

Long Term Debt 492,507 452,382 410,514 406,370 389,965<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 568,696 532,650 493,535 492,143 478,491<br />

Total Current Liabilities 406,484 475,480 466,506 550,048 460,480<br />

Total Liabilities 975,180 1,008,130 960,041 1,042,191 938,971<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 1,354,882 1,472,402 1,430,215 1,537,115 1,464,711<br />

Cash Flow Statement (Rs m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 121,020 85,850 33,025 62,092 72,925<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 44,148 45,167 58,007 60,945 63,255<br />

Tax Paid (32,351) (36,524) (22,266) (26,447) (30,775)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (77,508) 11,590 (6,493) (21,779) (37,962)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 55,125 112,838 100,699 111,652 103,929<br />

Capital Expenditure (95,884) (121,360) (68,657) (69,071) (69,457)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 16,527 80,253 (2,416) 467 1,937<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (75,839) (36,663) (63,985) (61,861) (60,294)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 52,909 (47,223) (32,842) (3,612) (23,112)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 60,568 13,963 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (7,162) (11,639) (13,512) (4,524) (12,038)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 59,731 (83,043) (85,649) (48,906) (76,413)<br />

Change in Cash 39,016 (6,868) (48,935) 885 (32,778)<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 14.1% 9.3% 9.0% 10.7% 11.1%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 10.4% 5.9% 4.7% 6.5% 6.9%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 7.6% 4.1% 1.2% 2.9% 3.3%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 30.0% 13.1% 3.5% 8.9% 9.9%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 10.3% 5.9% 4.6% 6.6% 7.2%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 12.2% 5.4% 2.8% 6.5% 7.1%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 139.7% 107.6% 99.5% 94.1% 84.3%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 111.1% 84.3% 87.0% 82.0% 79.2%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 409.4% 343.0% 317.6% 313.3% 298.6%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.3x 0.3x 0.3x 0.7x 0.7x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 2.7x 2.2x 1.7x 2.5x 2.7x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 26.7% 22.7% 12.7% 10.9% 5.9%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 139.0% 119.0% 108.7% 108.6% 110.6%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 79.8% 65.2% 50.9% 56.5% 47.3%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

339 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Tech Mahindra Limited (TECHM IN)<br />

Sector: Information Technology Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Software & Services<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.7x<br />

Country: India<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 21.1%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.1x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Tech Mahindra Ltd. (TML), promoted by Mahindra & Mahindra Limited and British Telecommunications<br />

Plc was founded in the year 1986. Tech Mahindra Ltd is part of the US $12.5 billion Mahindra Group, a<br />

global industrial federation of companies and one of the top 10 business houses based in India.TML,<br />

with its broad range of services, proven expertise & global operations, is a leading player in the<br />

telecommunication Industry. The Company capabilities spread across a broad spectrum, including<br />

Business Support Systems (BSS), Operations Support Systems (OSS), Network Design & Engineering,<br />

Next Generation Networks, Mobility Solutions, Security consulting and Testing.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Mar) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Rs m) 3,044 4,023 5,256 7,144 10,455<br />

Gross Debt (Rs m) 12,227 11,266 11,133 8,067 5,033<br />

Interest Expense (Rs m) (1,059) (911) (974) (835) (570)<br />

EBIT (Rs m) 8,588 7,581 10,840 10,790 11,712<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 36.3% 27.8% 21.1% 12.3% 6.3%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 134.3% 133.6% 167.1% 191.4% 217.4%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 1.3x 1.3x 0.9x 0.8x 0.5x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.6x 0.3x 1.7x 1.1x 1.3x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 8.1x 8.3x 11.1x 12.9x 20.6x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (Rs m) 51,402 54,897 67,907 74,685 80,236<br />

% Change (YoY) 11.1% 6.8% 23.7% 10.0% 7.4%<br />

EBITDA (Rs m) 10,023 9,194 12,587 12,788 13,957<br />

% of Sales 19.5% 16.7% 18.5% 17.1% 17.4%<br />

Net Income (Rs m) 6,442 10,955 12,909 13,800 15,269<br />

% of Sales 12.5% 20.0% 19.0% 18.5% 19.0%<br />

Free Cash Flow (Rs m) 3,103 4,159 2,784 6,256 7,346<br />

% of Sales 6.0% 7.6% 4.1% 8.4% 9.2%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 2,636 3,044 4,023 5,256 7,144<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 3,103 4,159 2,784 6,256 7,346<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 5,739 7,203 6,807 11,513 14,490<br />

Principal Repayments 13,584 25,331 5,133 8,067 8,033<br />

Interest Payments 1,059 911 974 835 570<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 14,643 26,242 6,107 8,902 8,603<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.4x 0.3x 1.1x 1.3x 1.7x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In Rs m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 4,023 11.7%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 31,733 92.0%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 35,756 103.6%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 35,756 103.6%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 34,510 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(Rs m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 91,886 119,799 119,799<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 11,266 11,133 8,067<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

1.4x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EH981767 Corp At Maturity Secured Rs 3,000.0 3,000.0 100.00 17-Apr-2009 17-Apr-2013 10.25% 1<br />

EH981775 Corp At Maturity Secured Rs 3,000.0 3,000.0 100.00 17-Apr-2009 17-Apr-2014 10.25% 1<br />

340 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (Rs)<br />

10.9%<br />

89.1%<br />

8.5%<br />

91.5%<br />

6.3%<br />

93.7%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

1.8x<br />

14.0x<br />

1.6x<br />

12.0x<br />

1.4x<br />

1.2x<br />

10.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

0.8x<br />

6.0x<br />

0.6x<br />

0.4x<br />

4.0x<br />

0.2x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

1.2x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.8x<br />

0.6x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.3x<br />

1.1x<br />

1.3x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

1186<br />

1086<br />

986<br />

886<br />

786<br />

686<br />

586<br />

486<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Tech Mahindra Limited


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (Rs m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 51,402 54,897 67,907 74,685 80,236<br />

Operating Expenses (41,379) (45,703) (55,320) (61,896) (66,280)<br />

EBITDA 10,023 9,194 12,587 12,788 13,957<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (1,435) (1,613) (1,747) (1,999) (2,245)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 8,588 7,581 10,840 10,790 11,712<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (1,023) (947) (890) (717) (382)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 1,198 903 (549) 454 493<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 8,774 6,858 9,402 10,526 11,823<br />

Taxes on Profit (1,316) (1,437) (1,901) (2,316) (2,737)<br />

Minority Interests (20) (36) 0 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items (996) 5,570 5,408 5,589 6,183<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 6,442 10,955 12,909 13,800 15,269<br />

Balance Sheet (Rs m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 6,107 6,729 7,360 7,763 7,944<br />

Long-term Investments 1 1 1 1 1<br />

Associates 28,700 34,270 39,678 45,267 51,451<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 63 96 155 196 219<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 40,263 47,149 53,757 60,087 66,723<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 17,246 18,019 21,174 21,980 24,674<br />

Total Current Assets 20,290 22,042 26,431 29,124 35,129<br />

Total Assets 60,553 69,191 80,187 89,210 101,851<br />

Shareholders' Equity 33,515 40,509 52,721 65,776 80,220<br />

Total Equity 33,674 40,509 52,721 65,776 80,220<br />

Long Term Debt 6,400 6,000 6,000 3,000 0<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 11,775 12,181 11,656 8,222 5,475<br />

Total Current Liabilities 15,104 16,501 15,810 15,213 16,156<br />

Total Liabilities 26,879 28,682 27,466 23,435 21,631<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 60,553 69,191 80,187 89,210 101,851<br />

Cash Flow Statement (Rs m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 8,774 6,858 9,402 10,526 11,823<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 1,435 1,613 1,747 1,999 2,245<br />

Tax Paid (2,087) (2,471) (1,901) (2,316) (2,737)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (2,743) 226 (2,909) (341) (1,884)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 4,637 7,117 5,284 8,756 9,846<br />

Capital Expenditure (1,534) (2,958) (2,500) (2,500) (2,500)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 110 (1,325) (552) (356) (229)<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (1,334) (4,203) (2,909) (2,664) (2,457)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (1,560) (1,790) (133) (3,067) (3,033)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 260 118 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (508) (591) (603) (697) (747)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (2,867) (3,174) (1,711) (4,598) (4,350)<br />

Change in Cash 436 (260) 664 1,494 3,038<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 19.5% 16.7% 18.5% 17.1% 17.4%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 16.7% 13.8% 16.0% 14.4% 14.6%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 12.5% 20.0% 19.0% 18.5% 19.0%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 20.7% 29.6% 27.7% 23.3% 20.9%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 14.5% 11.8% 14.6% 12.9% 12.5%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 37.6% 30.6% 39.1% 32.9% 32.5%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 36.3% 27.8% 21.1% 12.3% 6.3%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 28.4% 21.8% 15.3% 5.3% -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 191.7% 175.3% 160.2% 143.0% 130.9%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.6x 0.3x 1.7x 1.1x 1.3x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 8.1x 8.3x 11.1x 12.9x 20.6x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 17.6% 14.7% 19.5% 30.1% 47.1%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 134.3% 133.6% 167.2% 191.4% 217.4%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 134.3% 133.6% 167.1% 191.4% 217.4%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

341 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Telstra Corporation Ltd. (TLS AU)<br />

Sector: Telecommunication Services Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Telecommunication Services Debt Service Cover (x) 2.1x<br />

Country: Australia<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 127.9%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 2.6x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Telstra Corporation Limited is Australia's leading telecommunications and information services company,<br />

with one of the best known brands in the country. Telstra offers a full range of products and services to<br />

meet the needs of its customers. The company’s telecommunications services provide vast geographical<br />

coverage through both its fixed and mobile network infrastructure - servicing many millions of Australian<br />

customers.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 30 Jun) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (A$ m) 2,631 3,945 5,416 6,477 6,851<br />

Gross Debt (A$ m) 14,168 15,264 15,521 15,529 14,938<br />

Interest Expense (A$ m) (1,135) (1,154) (1,154) (1,164) (1,143)<br />

EBIT (A$ m) 5,690 5,898 6,282 5,923 5,840<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 115.3% 130.6% 127.9% 124.2% 115.4%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 79.8% 90.7% 100.5% 103.2% 102.2%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 1.4x 1.4x 1.5x 1.5x 1.5x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 2.1x 2.3x 2.1x 1.9x 1.6x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 5.0x 5.1x 5.4x 5.1x 5.1x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (A$ m) 25,093 25,368 25,459 24,751 24,650<br />

% Change (YoY) 0.7% 1.1% 0.4% (2.8%) (0.4%)<br />

EBITDA (A$ m) 10,149 10,310 10,529 10,063 9,872<br />

% of Sales 40.4% 40.6% 41.4% 40.7% 40.0%<br />

Net Income (A$ m) 3,231 3,405 3,866 3,644 3,618<br />

% of Sales 12.9% 13.4% 15.2% 14.7% 14.7%<br />

Free Cash Flow (A$ m) 4,767 5,328 6,129 5,788 5,536<br />

% of Sales 19.0% 21.0% 24.1% 23.4% 22.5%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 1,952 2,631 3,945 5,416 6,477<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 4,767 5,328 6,129 5,788 5,536<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 6,719 7,959 10,074 11,203 12,013<br />

Principal Repayments 2,597 2,276 2,743 2,992 3,592<br />

Interest Payments 1,135 1,154 1,154 1,164 1,143<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 3,732 3,430 3,897 4,156 4,734<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.8x 2.3x 2.6x 2.7x 2.5x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In A$ m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 3,945 16.6%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 28,569 120.0%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 32,514 136.6%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 759 3.2%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 33,273 139.7%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 23,810 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

24.9% 21.8% 21.8%<br />

75.1% 78.2% 78.2%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(A$ m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 45,915 55,745 55,745<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 15,264 15,521 15,529<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

2.5x<br />

5.5x<br />

5.4x<br />

2.0x<br />

5.3x<br />

1.5x<br />

5.2x<br />

5.1x<br />

1.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

4.9x<br />

4.8x<br />

0.0x<br />

4.7x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

3.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EG266794 Corp At Maturity Company Guarantee EUR 1,000.0 1,000.0 99.80 21-Mar-2007 21-Mar-2017 4.75% 1<br />

EI189261 Corp At Maturity Company Guarantee EUR 1,000.0 1,000.0 99.00 23-Mar-2010 23-Mar-2020 4.25% 1<br />

EJ095285 Corp At Maturity Company Guarantee EUR 1,000.0 1,000.0 99.60 21-Mar-2012 21-Sep-2022 3.50% 1<br />

342 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (A$)<br />

2.5x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

5.22<br />

4.72<br />

4.22<br />

3.72<br />

3.22<br />

1.8x<br />

2.3x<br />

2.6x<br />

2.7x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

2.72<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Telstra Corporation Ltd.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (A$ m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 25,093 25,368 25,459 24,751 24,650<br />

Operating Expenses (14,944) (15,058) (14,930) (14,688) (14,778)<br />

EBITDA 10,149 10,310 10,529 10,063 9,872<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (4,459) (4,412) (4,247) (4,140) (4,032)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 5,690 5,898 6,282 5,923 5,840<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (955) (870) (876) (835) (791)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) (44) 112 150 150 150<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 1 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 4,557 4,934 5,556 5,238 5,200<br />

Taxes on Profit (1,307) (1,510) (1,667) (1,571) (1,560)<br />

Minority Interests (19) (19) (23) (22) (22)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 3,231 3,405 3,866 3,644 3,618<br />

Balance Sheet (A$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 21,790 20,504 19,883 19,352 18,742<br />

Long-term Investments 1 19 19 19 19<br />

Associates 2 12 12 12 12<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 7,627 7,421 7,447 7,453 7,375<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 30,460 29,575 28,980 28,455 27,766<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 4,822 6,005 5,607 5,314 5,575<br />

Total Current Assets 7,453 9,950 11,023 11,791 12,427<br />

Total Assets 37,913 39,525 40,003 40,247 40,193<br />

Shareholders' Equity 12,074 11,480 11,907 12,247 12,669<br />

Total Equity 12,292 11,689 12,139 12,501 12,945<br />

Long Term Debt 12,178 11,958 11,966 11,375 10,183<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 16,631 17,152 17,160 16,569 15,377<br />

Total Current Liabilities 8,990 10,684 10,703 11,177 11,870<br />

Total Liabilities 25,621 27,836 27,864 27,746 27,247<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 37,913 39,525 40,003 40,247 40,193<br />

Cash Flow Statement (A$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 4,557 4,934 5,556 5,238 5,200<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 4,459 4,412 4,247 4,140 4,032<br />

Tax Paid (1,511) (1,597) (1,628) (1,583) (1,564)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (1,169) 197 129 178 (163)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 8,018 9,276 9,879 9,538 9,036<br />

Capital Expenditure (3,251) (3,948) (3,750) (3,750) (3,500)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 305 (19) 241 246 251<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (2,541) (4,079) (4,072) (4,016) (3,733)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (257) 773 257 8 (592)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (3,475) (3,475) (3,439) (3,304) (3,195)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (4,873) (3,906) (4,336) (4,460) (4,929)<br />

Change in Cash 604 1,291 1,471 1,061 374<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 40.4% 40.6% 41.4% 40.7% 40.0%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 22.7% 23.2% 24.7% 23.9% 23.7%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 12.9% 13.4% 15.2% 14.7% 14.7%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 26.1% 28.9% 33.1% 30.2% 29.0%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 15.1% 15.6% 16.3% 15.4% 15.2%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 13.7% 14.5% 15.8% 15.3% 15.5%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 115.3% 130.6% 127.9% 124.2% 115.4%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 93.9% 96.8% 83.2% 72.4% 62.5%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 311.6% 328.8% 340.1% 332.2% 322.8%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 2.1x 2.3x 2.1x 1.9x 1.6x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 5.0x 5.1x 5.4x 5.1x 5.1x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 29.3% 36.9% 50.6% 58.0% 57.7%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 82.9% 93.1% 103.0% 105.5% 104.7%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 79.8% 90.7% 100.5% 103.2% 102.2%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

343 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Tenaga Nasional Bhd (TNB MK)<br />

Sector: Utilities Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Utilities<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 2.3x<br />

Country: Malaysia<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 67.2%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 2.5x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB) is the largest electricity utility in Malaysia. TNB’s core businesses are<br />

generation, transmission and distribution of electricity. In Peninsular Malaysia, TNB accounts for 55<br />

percent of the total generation capacity through six thermal stations & three major hydroelectric power<br />

plants. In addition, TNB manages & operates the National Grid, a comprehensive transmission network<br />

that is also interconnected to Thailand & Singapore.<br />

TNB holds a monopoly over transmission and distribution in all of Peninsular Malaysia. In eastern<br />

Malaysia, subsidiary of the company Sabah Electricity Sdn. Bhd. (SESB) provides power to the Sabah<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Aug) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (RM m) 8,425 3,963 10,157 11,279 12,880<br />

Gross Debt (RM m) 21,264 19,054 22,750 21,729 20,403<br />

Interest Expense (RM m) (1,090) (996) (1,083) (1,152) (1,107)<br />

EBIT (RM m) 3,798 624 3,845 4,906 4,903<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 70.5% 62.9% 67.2% 59.2% 51.6%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 140.7% 120.2% 200.9% 196.2% 222.2%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 2.8x 4.3x 2.6x 2.4x 2.2x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 2.9x 1.0x 2.3x 3.0x 2.7x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 3.5x 0.6x 3.5x 4.3x 4.4x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (RM m) 30,317 32,207 35,896 37,725 39,016<br />

% Change (YoY) 5.3% 6.2% 11.5% 5.1% 3.4%<br />

EBITDA (RM m) 7,748 4,665 8,104 9,397 9,621<br />

% of Sales 25.6% 14.5% 22.6% 24.9% 24.7%<br />

Net Income (RM m) 3,201 500 3,852 3,940 4,006<br />

% of Sales 10.6% 1.6% 10.7% 10.4% 10.3%<br />

Free Cash Flow (RM m) 4,240 (558) 3,295 3,693 4,453<br />

% of Sales 14.0% (1.7%) 9.2% 9.8% 11.4%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 6,185 8,425 3,963 10,157 11,279<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 4,240 (558) 3,295 3,693 4,453<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 10,425 7,867 7,258 13,850 15,732<br />

Principal Repayments 1,230 3,385 1,804 1,521 1,826<br />

Interest Payments 1,090 996 1,083 1,152 1,107<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 2,320 4,380 2,887 2,673 2,933<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 4.5x 1.8x 2.5x 5.2x 5.4x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In RM m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 3,963 27.3%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 21,107 145.6%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 25,069 173.0%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 25,069 173.0%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 14,493 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

39.9% 37.9% 36.6%<br />

60.1% 62.1% 63.4%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(RM m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 28,647 37,324 37,651<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 19,054 22,750 21,729<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

3.5x<br />

4.5x<br />

3.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

2.5x<br />

3.5x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

2.5x<br />

1.5x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

6.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

ED921165 Corp At Maturity Company Guarantee US$ 350.0 350.0 99.05 05-May-2005 05-May-2015 5.25% 2<br />

344 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (RM)<br />

5.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

4.5x<br />

1.8x<br />

2.5x<br />

5.2x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

8.42<br />

7.92<br />

7.42<br />

6.92<br />

6.42<br />

5.92<br />

5.42<br />

4.92<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Tenaga Nasional Bhd


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (RM m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 30,317 32,207 35,896 37,725 39,016<br />

Operating Expenses (22,570) (27,542) (27,792) (28,328) (29,395)<br />

EBITDA 7,748 4,665 8,104 9,397 9,621<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (3,950) (4,041) (4,259) (4,491) (4,719)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 3,798 624 3,845 4,906 4,903<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (861) (509) (500) (430) (359)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 1,033 293 1,765 747 764<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 45 93 41 45 50<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 4,019 547 5,151 5,269 5,357<br />

Taxes on Profit (823) (40) (1,288) (1,317) (1,339)<br />

Minority Interests 5 (7) (12) (12) (12)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 3,201 500 3,852 3,940 4,006<br />

Balance Sheet (RM m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 54,396 54,923 56,144 57,178 57,769<br />

Long-term Investments 38 38 38 38 38<br />

Associates 246 408 449 493 543<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 59,766 61,689 63,593 64,749 65,161<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 7,690 8,960 8,789 9,777 9,537<br />

Total Current Assets 16,115 12,923 18,946 21,056 22,417<br />

Total Assets 75,881 74,611 82,538 85,805 87,578<br />

Shareholders' Equity 30,145 30,180 33,757 36,578 39,398<br />

Total Equity 30,180 30,272 33,860 36,693 39,525<br />

Long Term Debt 18,101 17,327 21,251 19,971 18,691<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 35,988 35,789 40,467 39,882 39,246<br />

Total Current Liabilities 9,712 8,550 8,212 9,230 8,807<br />

Total Liabilities 45,700 44,340 48,679 49,111 48,053<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 75,881 74,611 82,538 85,805 87,578<br />

Cash Flow Statement (RM m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 4,019 547 5,151 5,269 5,357<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 3,950 4,041 4,259 4,491 4,719<br />

Tax Paid (579) (697) (970) (1,312) (1,417)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (457) (178) (297) (262) (77)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 7,971 5,098 9,295 9,193 9,453<br />

Capital Expenditure (3,731) (5,656) (6,000) (5,500) (5,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 10 (44) 80 84 88<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (3,540) (5,212) (5,539) (4,880) (4,333)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (703) (2,613) 3,696 (1,021) (1,326)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 98 82 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (621) (838) (276) (1,118) (1,187)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (2,249) (4,272) 2,437 (3,191) (3,519)<br />

Change in Cash 2,182 (4,386) 6,194 1,122 1,601<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 25.6% 14.5% 22.6% 24.9% 24.7%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 12.5% 1.9% 10.7% 13.0% 12.6%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 10.6% 1.6% 10.7% 10.4% 10.3%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 11.1% 1.7% 12.0% 11.2% 10.5%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 5.4% 1.3% 5.4% 6.5% 6.3%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 5.0% 0.9% 4.5% 5.6% 5.5%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 70.5% 62.9% 67.2% 59.2% 51.6%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 42.8% 49.9% 37.2% 28.5% 19.1%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 259.1% 249.5% 245.8% 239.3% 228.2%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 2.9x 1.0x 2.3x 3.0x 2.7x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 3.5x 0.6x 3.5x 4.3x 4.4x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 85.9% 46.2% 123.6% 122.1% 146.2%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 165.9% 151.1% 230.7% 228.1% 254.5%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 140.7% 120.2% 200.9% 196.2% 222.2%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

345 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Tencent Holdings Ltd. (700 HK)<br />

Sector: Information Technology Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Software & Services<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 3.6x<br />

Country: Hong Kong<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 24.8%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 11.6x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Incorporated in 1998, Tencent Holdings Ltd is China’s largest and most popular web portal that primarily<br />

offers instant messaging, social networking and Online gaming services. The Company earns its<br />

revenue primarily from the provision of Internet value added services, Mobile value added services and<br />

online advertising services.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (RMB m) 23,170 31,271 43,344 60,926 84,283<br />

Gross Debt (RMB m) 5,299 11,733 10,424 8,226 6,481<br />

Interest Expense (RMB m) (35) (73) (266) (224) (176)<br />

EBIT (RMB m) 9,544 11,364 15,590 20,541 26,865<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 24.3% 40.3% 24.8% 13.8% 7.8%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 194.9% 167.6% 205.4% 247.6% 293.8%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.3x 0.6x 0.6x 0.4x 0.3x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 36.6x 2.9x 3.6x 5.5x 8.1x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 272.5x 156.7x 58.6x 91.8x 152.2x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (RMB m) 19,646 28,496 43,626 56,424 70,740<br />

% Change (YoY) 57.9% 45.0% 53.1% 29.3% 25.4%<br />

EBITDA (RMB m) 10,326 13,303 18,123 22,811 28,979<br />

% of Sales 52.6% 46.7% 41.5% 40.4% 41.0%<br />

Net Income (RMB m) 8,054 10,203 12,933 17,511 23,019<br />

% of Sales 41.0% 35.8% 29.6% 31.0% 32.5%<br />

Free Cash Flow (RMB m) 10,529 8,523 16,359 22,261 27,714<br />

% of Sales 53.6% 29.9% 37.5% 39.5% 39.2%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 11,554 23,170 31,271 43,344 60,926<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 10,529 8,523 16,359 22,261 27,714<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 22,083 31,694 47,630 65,605 88,641<br />

Principal Repayments 202 3,766 3,857 3,198 2,745<br />

Interest Payments 35 73 266 224 176<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 237 3,838 4,123 3,422 2,922<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 93.0x 8.3x 11.6x 19.2x 30.3x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In RMB m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 31,271 203.5%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 142,051 924.5%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 173,321 1,128.0%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 173,321 1,128.0%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 15,365 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(RMB m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 232,754 368,286 384,375<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 11,733 10,424 8,226<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

100.0x<br />

90.0x<br />

80.0x<br />

70.0x<br />

60.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

93.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

8.3x<br />

11.6x<br />

19.2x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EI876953 Corp Callable Senior Unsecured US$ 600.0 600.0 99.74 12-Dec-2011 12-Dec-2016 4.63% 2<br />

EJ343311 Corp Callable Senior Unsecured US$ 600.0 600.0 99.77 05-Sep-2012 05-Mar-2018 3.38% 2<br />

346 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

4.8%<br />

95.2%<br />

2.8%<br />

97.2%<br />

2.1%<br />

97.9%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

40.0x<br />

300.0x<br />

35.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

250.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

200.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

150.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

100.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

331<br />

281<br />

231<br />

181<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

131<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Tencent Holdings Ltd.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (RMB m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 19,646 28,496 43,626 56,424 70,740<br />

Operating Expenses (9,320) (15,193) (25,503) (33,613) (41,761)<br />

EBITDA 10,326 13,303 18,123 22,811 28,979<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (782) (1,939) (2,533) (2,270) (2,114)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 9,544 11,364 15,590 20,541 26,865<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 221 396 543 956 1,515<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 71 65 (199) 80 80<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 76 (190) (51) 24 46<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 9,913 12,099 15,895 21,601 28,506<br />

Taxes on Profit (1,798) (1,874) (2,897) (4,002) (5,371)<br />

Minority Interests (62) (22) (65) (88) (116)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 8,054 10,203 12,933 17,511 23,019<br />

Balance Sheet (RMB m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 3,293 5,885 6,873 6,801 6,738<br />

Long-term Investments 4,164 4,365 5,865 6,865 7,865<br />

Associates 1,145 4,400 4,349 4,373 4,419<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 573 3,780 3,305 3,142 3,096<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 10,456 21,301 23,211 23,958 24,884<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 2,203 4,233 5,766 7,112 8,473<br />

Total Current Assets 25,374 35,503 49,111 68,038 92,756<br />

Total Assets 35,830 56,804 72,322 91,996 117,640<br />

Shareholders' Equity 21,757 28,464 41,583 59,374 82,482<br />

Total Equity 21,841 29,088 41,978 59,650 82,706<br />

Long Term Debt 0 3,733 4,251 3,305 2,419<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 967 6,533 6,430 4,864 3,358<br />

Total Current Liabilities 13,022 21,183 23,914 27,482 31,576<br />

Total Liabilities 13,989 27,716 30,344 32,347 34,934<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 35,830 56,804 72,322 91,996 117,640<br />

Cash Flow Statement (RMB m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 9,913 12,099 15,895 21,601 28,506<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 782 1,939 2,533 2,270 2,114<br />

Tax Paid (872) (1,836) (2,989) (3,829) (5,108)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 2,349 1,177 3,384 3,694 3,889<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 12,319 13,358 19,359 24,261 29,714<br />

Capital Expenditure (1,790) (4,835) (3,000) (2,000) (2,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (9,167) (8,894) (1,495) (994) (994)<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (12,015) (15,355) (3,954) (2,206) (1,864)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 5,097 6,678 (1,308) (2,198) (1,745)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net (278) (1,326) 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (706) (895) (1,403) (1,655) (2,129)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 4,112 4,373 (3,331) (4,473) (4,494)<br />

Change in Cash 4,416 2,376 12,074 17,582 23,356<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 52.6% 46.7% 41.5% 40.4% 41.0%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 48.6% 39.9% 35.7% 36.4% 38.0%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 41.0% 35.8% 29.6% 31.0% 32.5%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 47.5% 40.6% 36.9% 34.7% 32.5%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 36.7% 25.5% 25.4% 26.4% 27.2%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 8,783.7% 598.1% 553.4% - -<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 24.3% 40.3% 24.8% 13.8% 7.8%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 157.2% 184.5% 184.3% 162.8% 147.8%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 36.6x 2.9x 3.6x 5.5x 8.1x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 272.5x 156.7x 58.6x 91.8x 152.2x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 79.9% 59.5% 103.2% 153.8% 207.8%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 194.9% 167.6% 205.4% 247.6% 293.8%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 194.9% 167.6% 205.4% 247.6% 293.8%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

347 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Total Access Communication Limited (DTAC SP)<br />

Sector: Telecommunication Services Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Telecommunication Services Debt Service Cover (x) 38.2x<br />

Country: Singapore<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 38.8%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 54.1x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Total Access Communication Public Company Limited is one of the leading telecommunication services<br />

providers in Thailand which offers cellular services under the company brand “dtac”. Founded in August<br />

1989, the Company provides wireless telecommunication services in Thailand under a 27 year Build-<br />

Transfer-Operate concession granted by CAT Telecom Public Company Limited (formerly<br />

Communications Authority of Thailand).<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (THB m) 12,648 21,973 12,118 22,532 29,082<br />

Gross Debt (THB m) 8,910 4,589 18,269 16,134 12,000<br />

Interest Expense (THB m) (962) (453) (698) (1,076) (931)<br />

EBIT (THB m) 14,396 16,618 15,825 14,836 15,170<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 12.9% 13.2% 38.8% 31.4% 21.3%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 84.4% 47.4% 75.4% 97.3% 130.3%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.6x 0.2x 0.4x 0.6x 0.5x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.7x 4.0x 38.2x 7.3x 4.6x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 15.0x 36.7x 22.7x 13.8x 16.3x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (THB m) 71,831 79,032 86,743 91,939 95,289<br />

% Change (YoY) 10.0% 10.0% 9.8% 6.0% 3.6%<br />

EBITDA (THB m) 24,761 27,133 26,648 27,311 27,914<br />

% of Sales 34.5% 34.3% 30.7% 29.7% 29.3%<br />

Net Income (THB m) 10,892 11,813 12,176 11,638 12,285<br />

% of Sales 15.2% 14.9% 14.0% 12.7% 12.9%<br />

Free Cash Flow (THB m) 20,841 21,773 15,776 21,222 19,390<br />

% of Sales 29.0% 27.5% 18.2% 23.1% 20.3%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 7,491 12,648 21,973 12,118 22,532<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 20,841 21,773 15,776 21,222 19,390<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 28,332 34,420 37,749 33,340 41,922<br />

Principal Repayments 10,065 4,321 0 2,134 4,134<br />

Interest Payments 962 453 698 1,076 931<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 11,027 4,774 698 3,210 5,065<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 2.6x 7.2x 54.1x 10.4x 8.3x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In THB m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 21,973 164.3%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 100,039 748.2%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 122,012 912.6%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 122,012 912.6%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 13,370 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

348 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

2.5%<br />

97.5%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(THB m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 182,279 202,808 202,808<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 4,589 18,269 16,134<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

45.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

35.0x<br />

35.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

60.0x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

8.3%<br />

91.7%<br />

20.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2.6x<br />

7.2x<br />

10.4x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Share Price (US$)<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

7.4%<br />

92.6%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

50.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

3.25<br />

2.75<br />

2.25<br />

54.1x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

1.75<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Total Access Communication Limited<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (THB m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 71,831 79,032 86,743 91,939 95,289<br />

Operating Expenses (47,533) (52,122) (60,363) (64,900) (67,649)<br />

EBITDA 24,761 27,133 26,648 27,311 27,914<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (10,365) (10,515) (10,823) (12,475) (12,745)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 14,396 16,618 15,825 14,836 15,170<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (733) 185 (150) (515) (15)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 506 238 85 88 91<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 55 35 52 56 59<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 14,555 17,078 15,813 14,465 15,305<br />

Taxes on Profit (3,670) (5,266) (3,637) (2,827) (3,020)<br />

Minority Interests 7 1 0 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 10,892 11,813 12,176 11,638 12,285<br />

Balance Sheet (THB m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 4,993 5,294 4,750 4,360 4,064<br />

Long-term Investments 200 51 51 51 51<br />

Associates 296 306 327 349 373<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 64,357 57,162 55,892 50,304 44,341<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 77,813 72,722 70,658 64,499 58,110<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 8,853 9,152 9,646 10,103 10,085<br />

Total Current Assets 21,500 31,125 21,764 32,635 39,168<br />

Total Assets 99,313 103,847 92,422 97,134 97,278<br />

Shareholders' Equity 68,863 34,871 47,047 51,379 56,216<br />

Total Equity 68,878 34,888 47,064 51,396 56,233<br />

Long Term Debt 4,589 3,269 16,134 12,000 10,500<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 5,258 4,109 16,975 12,840 11,340<br />

Total Current Liabilities 25,178 64,850 28,384 32,898 29,705<br />

Total Liabilities 30,435 68,959 45,358 45,738 41,045<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 99,313 103,847 92,422 97,134 97,278<br />

Cash Flow Statement (THB m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 14,555 17,078 15,813 14,465 15,305<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 10,365 10,515 10,823 12,475 12,745<br />

Tax Paid (3,188) (4,874) (4,125) (3,087) (3,033)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 1,427 3,836 956 2,255 (527)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 23,795 26,749 24,276 27,222 25,390<br />

Capital Expenditure (2,954) (4,976) (8,500) (6,000) (6,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 712 1 227 175 138<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (1,778) (5,215) (8,742) (6,292) (6,327)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (10,065) (4,321) 13,679 (2,134) (4,134)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (4,555) (7,434) (38,371) (7,306) (7,448)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (15,582) (12,209) (25,390) (10,516) (12,513)<br />

Change in Cash 6,435 9,326 (9,855) 10,414 6,550<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 34.5% 34.3% 30.7% 29.7% 29.3%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 20.0% 21.0% 18.2% 16.1% 15.9%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 15.2% 14.9% 14.0% 12.7% 12.9%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 16.6% 22.8% 29.7% 23.6% 22.8%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 14.6% 16.9% 16.7% 16.3% 16.5%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 15.4% 27.6% 34.0% 24.1% 28.6%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 12.9% 13.2% 38.8% 31.4% 21.3%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - 13.3% - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 152.1% 195.8% 239.6% 192.6% 180.7%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.7x 4.0x 38.2x 7.3x 4.6x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 15.0x 36.7x 22.7x 13.8x 16.3x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 49.8% 33.7% 42.3% 68.2% 97.6%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 85.4% 48.0% 76.7% 99.2% 131.9%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 84.4% 47.4% 75.4% 97.3% 130.3%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

349 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


TPV Technology Limited (903 HK)<br />

Sector: Information Technology Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Technology Hardware & Equipment Debt Service Cover (x) 0.3x<br />

Country: Hong Kong<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 24.0%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.8x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

TPV Technology is a leading display solution provider in the People's Republic of China (PRC) market<br />

with designing and production facility of a wide spectrum of desktop monitors and LCD TVs. The<br />

Company got listed on both the Hong Kong and Singapore stock exchanges in October 1999. In<br />

September 2005, the Company acquired a part of the monitor and flat screen television business of<br />

Koninklijike Philips Electronics N.V.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (US$ m) 187 309 787 244 413<br />

Gross Debt (US$ m) 473 440 478 578 618<br />

Interest Expense (US$ m) (15) (8) (69) (63) (60)<br />

EBIT (US$ m) 117 10 (17) 127 230<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 26.3% 24.1% 24.0% 27.8% 27.5%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 86.4% 95.7% 81.5% 99.3% 84.1%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 1.6x 3.4x 3.3x 1.9x 1.5x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.8x 0.2x 0.3x 0.9x 1.0x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 7.6x 1.2x - 2.0x 3.8x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (US$ m) 11,632 11,040 12,097 13,036 13,513<br />

% Change (YoY) 44.8% (5.1%) 9.6% 7.8% 3.7%<br />

EBITDA (US$ m) 219 134 139 277 386<br />

% of Sales 1.9% 1.2% 1.1% 2.1% 2.9%<br />

Net Income (US$ m) 169 120 220 154 218<br />

% of Sales 1.5% 1.1% 1.8% 1.2% 1.6%<br />

Free Cash Flow (US$ m) (455) (119) 451 (587) 170<br />

% of Sales (3.9%) (1.1%) 3.7% (4.5%) 1.3%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 273 187 309 787 244<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (455) (119) 451 (587) 170<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) (182) 68 761 200 414<br />

Principal Repayments 209 473 362 200 260<br />

Interest Payments 15 8 69 63 60<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 225 481 431 263 320<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) (0.8x) 0.1x 1.8x 0.8x 1.3x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In US$ m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 309 21.2%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 320 22.0%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 629 43.2%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 3 0.2%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 632 43.4%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 1,456 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

350 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

50.7%<br />

49.3%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(US$ m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 429 633 678<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 440 478 578<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

0.9x<br />

8.0x<br />

0.8x<br />

7.0x<br />

0.7x<br />

6.0x<br />

0.6x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.3x<br />

5.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

0.2x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.1x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

2.0x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

43.1% 46.0%<br />

56.9% 54.0%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.0x<br />

(0.5x)<br />

(1.0x)<br />

3.16<br />

2.66<br />

2.16<br />

1.66<br />

(0.8x)<br />

0.1x<br />

1.8x<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

0.8x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

1.16<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

TPV Technology Limited<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (US$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 11,632 11,040 12,097 13,036 13,513<br />

Operating Expenses (11,413) (10,906) (11,958) (12,759) (13,127)<br />

EBITDA 219 134 139 277 386<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (102) (124) (156) (150) (157)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 117 10 (17) 127 230<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (14) (8) (59) (54) (54)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 93 139 307 128 109<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 5 (4) 4 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 202 136 235 201 284<br />

Taxes on Profit (43) (26) (52) (47) (66)<br />

Minority Interests 10 10 37 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 169 120 220 154 218<br />

Balance Sheet (US$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 410 436 503 563 614<br />

Long-term Investments 30 39 39 39 39<br />

Associates 41 41 45 45 45<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 434 466 633 624 617<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 976 1,094 1,335 1,385 1,429<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 3,964 3,854 5,468 4,537 5,876<br />

Total Current Assets 4,151 4,163 6,255 4,781 6,289<br />

Total Assets 5,127 5,257 7,590 6,166 7,718<br />

Shareholders' Equity 1,793 1,831 2,029 2,117 2,289<br />

Total Equity 1,796 1,827 1,989 2,077 2,249<br />

Long Term Debt 0 78 278 318 498<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 38 135 600 536 723<br />

Total Current Liabilities 3,293 3,294 5,001 3,553 4,745<br />

Total Liabilities 3,331 3,429 5,601 4,089 5,468<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 5,127 5,257 7,590 6,166 7,718<br />

Cash Flow Statement (US$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 202 136 235 201 284<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 102 124 156 150 157<br />

Tax Paid (35) (37) (46) (47) (60)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (501) (76) 513 (681) (5)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations (240) 78 844 (387) 370<br />

Capital Expenditure (216) (197) (393) (200) (200)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (18) 4 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (223) (185) (383) (191) (194)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 256 (36) 38 100 40<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 157 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (47) (48) (21) (66) (46)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 374 232 17 34 (6)<br />

Change in Cash (89) 124 478 (543) 170<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 1.9% 1.2% 1.1% 2.1% 2.9%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 1.0% 0.1% (0.1%) 1.0% 1.7%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 1.5% 1.1% 1.8% 1.2% 1.6%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 10.3% 6.6% 11.4% 7.4% 9.9%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 2.6% 0.3% (0.1%) 2.0% 3.4%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 5.3% 0.4% (0.7%) 4.4% 6.9%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 26.3% 24.1% 24.0% 27.8% 27.5%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 16.0% 7.5% - 16.4% 9.4%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 281.4% 286.5% 332.9% 331.8% 315.1%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.8x 0.2x 0.3x 0.9x 1.0x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 7.6x 1.2x - 2.0x 3.8x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 5.6% 9.2% 15.6% 6.7% 8.6%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 126.1% 126.4% 125.1% 134.6% 132.5%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 86.4% 95.7% 81.5% 99.3% 84.1%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

351 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


TravelSky Technology Limited (696 HK)<br />

Sector: Information Technology Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Software & Services<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) -<br />

Country: Hong Kong<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 0.0%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) -<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

TravelSky Technology Limited (TST) is a Chinese State-owned enterprise (SOE) and a dominant<br />

provider of IT solutions to China's aviation and travel industry. Its clients include airlines, airports, air<br />

travel suppliers, travel agencies, individual and corporate travel consumers, and cargo services.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (RMB m) 2,638 3,483 2,757 2,503 2,755<br />

Gross Debt (RMB m) 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Interest Expense (RMB m) 0 0 0 0 0<br />

EBIT (RMB m) 988 1,182 1,293 1,385 1,528<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 422.1% 426.4% 358.3% 332.8% 335.8%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) - - - - -<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) - - - - -<br />

Interest Cover (x) - - - - -<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (RMB m) 3,054 3,672 3,997 4,429 4,841<br />

% Change (YoY) 16.6% 20.2% 8.9% 10.8% 9.3%<br />

EBITDA (RMB m) 1,392 1,588 1,766 1,980 2,187<br />

% of Sales 45.6% 43.3% 44.2% 44.7% 45.2%<br />

Net Income (RMB m) 894 1,047 1,157 1,222 1,341<br />

% of Sales 29.3% 28.5% 28.9% 27.6% 27.7%<br />

Free Cash Flow (RMB m) (1,041) 1,107 (464) 60 586<br />

% of Sales (34.1%) 30.2% (11.6%) 1.3% 12.1%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 3,859 2,638 3,483 2,757 2,503<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (1,041) 1,107 (464) 60 586<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 2,817 3,745 3,020 2,816 3,089<br />

Principal Repayments 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Interest Payments 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) - - - - -<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In RMB m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 3,483 -<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 1,772 -<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 5,255 -<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 -<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 5,255 -<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 0 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

352 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

100.0% 100.0% 100.0%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity<br />

(RMB m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 9,581 9,739 9,938<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 0 0 0<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

1.0x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

0.8x<br />

0.6x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.0x<br />

0<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

1.0x<br />

0.9x<br />

0.8x<br />

0.7x<br />

0.6x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.3x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.1x<br />

0 0 0 0<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

5.20<br />

4.70<br />

4.20<br />

3.70<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

1<br />

1<br />

1<br />

0<br />

0<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

3.20<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

TravelSky Technology Limited<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (RMB m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 3,054 3,672 3,997 4,429 4,841<br />

Operating Expenses (1,662) (2,084) (2,231) (2,449) (2,654)<br />

EBITDA 1,392 1,588 1,766 1,980 2,187<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (404) (406) (473) (596) (659)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 988 1,182 1,293 1,385 1,528<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 35 74 94 79 79<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 24 27 32 38 44<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 1,047 1,283 1,418 1,501 1,652<br />

Taxes on Profit (130) (208) (230) (245) (273)<br />

Minority Interests (22) (28) (32) (34) (37)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 894 1,047 1,157 1,222 1,341<br />

Balance Sheet (RMB m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 1,098 950 2,354 3,249 3,852<br />

Long-term Investments 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Associates 131 154 181 213 250<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 104 51 152 213 253<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 3,421 3,197 4,676 5,611 6,238<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 1,901 2,326 2,505 2,809 3,005<br />

Total Current Assets 4,539 5,809 5,262 5,313 5,760<br />

Total Assets 7,960 9,007 9,938 10,924 11,998<br />

Shareholders' Equity 6,743 7,481 8,287 9,121 10,053<br />

Total Equity 6,867 7,627 8,454 9,311 10,267<br />

Long Term Debt 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 19 18 18 18 18<br />

Total Current Liabilities 1,073 1,362 1,466 1,595 1,712<br />

Total Liabilities 1,093 1,380 1,484 1,613 1,730<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 7,960 9,007 9,938 10,924 11,998<br />

Cash Flow Statement (RMB m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 1,047 1,283 1,418 1,501 1,652<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 404 406 473 596 659<br />

Tax Paid (185) (187) (230) (245) (273)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 54 (169) (77) (185) (79)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 1,303 1,319 1,461 1,560 1,836<br />

Capital Expenditure (2,345) (212) (1,925) (1,500) (1,250)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 565 (854) 359 (76) (41)<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (1,715) (1,010) (1,467) (1,492) (1,205)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (243) (316) (362) (399) (422)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (243) (316) (362) (399) (422)<br />

Change in Cash (655) (6) (368) (331) 209<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 45.6% 43.3% 44.2% 44.7% 45.2%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 32.3% 32.2% 32.3% 31.3% 31.6%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 29.3% 28.5% 28.9% 27.6% 27.7%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 13.9% 14.7% 14.7% 14.0% 14.0%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 13.6% 14.8% 14.6% 14.0% 14.0%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 27.1% 24.4% 22.7% 19.1% 18.4%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 117.2% 119.3% 120.1% 119.8% 119.5%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) - - - - -<br />

Interest Cover (x) - - - - -<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 83.8% 65.4% 35.6% 12.0% 23.4%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 422.8% 426.6% 358.9% 333.1% 336.4%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 422.1% 426.4% 358.3% 332.8% 335.8%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

353 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


UltraTech Cement Limited (UTCEM IN)<br />

Sector: Materials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Materials<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 11.4x<br />

Country: India<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 48.7%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 3.6x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

UltraTech Cement Limited is India’s largest cement producer with 18% market share and is the 8th<br />

largest manufacturer of cement in the world. It is the largest exporter of clinker in India. UltraTech has an<br />

installed capacity of 51.8 million tonnes per annum, including 3.0 million tonnes per annum of overseas<br />

capacity. It has a pan India presence with 11 composite plants, 11 split grinding units, five bulk terminals<br />

and 74 ready-mix concrete plants.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Mar) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Rs m) 36,591 28,538 31,477 56,243 68,468<br />

Gross Debt (Rs m) 40,224 55,460 75,460 78,794 47,127<br />

Interest Expense (Rs m) (3,100) (3,175) (4,499) (5,398) (4,251)<br />

EBIT (Rs m) 18,829 32,310 40,644 51,002 58,223<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 37.5% 43.0% 48.7% 42.3% 21.2%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 93.0% 95.1% 92.2% 125.6% 139.5%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 1.0x 1.1x 1.3x 1.2x 0.9x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 3.9x 2.5x 11.4x 4.2x 1.4x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 6.1x 10.2x 9.0x 9.4x 13.7x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (Rs m) 136,874 190,856 225,585 262,015 290,155<br />

% Change (YoY) 90.8% 39.4% 18.2% 16.1% 10.7%<br />

EBITDA (Rs m) 26,959 41,939 51,102 63,318 71,530<br />

% of Sales 19.7% 22.0% 22.7% 24.2% 24.7%<br />

Net Income (Rs m) 13,674 24,033 29,272 34,926 40,153<br />

% of Sales 10.0% 12.6% 13.0% 13.3% 13.8%<br />

Free Cash Flow (Rs m) 7,212 934 (12,141) 27,191 48,044<br />

% of Sales 5.3% 0.5% (5.4%) 10.4% 16.6%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 1,117 36,591 28,538 31,477 56,243<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 7,212 934 (12,141) 27,191 48,044<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 8,329 37,525 16,398 58,668 104,287<br />

Principal Repayments 2,983 9,808 0 6,667 31,667<br />

Interest Payments 3,100 3,175 4,499 5,398 4,251<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 6,083 12,983 4,499 12,064 35,918<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.4x 2.9x 3.6x 4.9x 2.9x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In Rs m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 28,538 32.9%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 179,072 206.7%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 207,610 239.6%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 207,610 239.6%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 86,633 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

11.8% 11.9% 12.4%<br />

88.2% 88.1% 87.6%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(Rs m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 415,086 557,791 557,791<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 55,460 75,460 78,794<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

12.0x<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

6.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EJ343599 Corp At Maturity Secured Rs 2,500.0 2,500.0 100.00 28-Aug-2012 28-Aug-2017 9.15% 1<br />

EH686082 Corp At Maturity Senior Secured Rs 2,000.0 2,000.0 100.00 16-Dec-2008 16-Dec-2013 10.48% 1<br />

EH936681 Corp Callable/Puttable Senior Secured Rs 2,000.0 2,000.0 100.00 14-Jul-2009 14-Jul-2016 8.01% 1<br />

354 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (Rs)<br />

10.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

12.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

5.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

2467<br />

1967<br />

1467<br />

1.4x<br />

2.9x<br />

3.6x<br />

4.9x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

967<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

UltraTech Cement Limited


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (Rs m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 136,874 190,856 225,585 262,015 290,155<br />

Operating Expenses (111,022) (150,418) (176,277) (200,782) (220,933)<br />

EBITDA 26,959 41,939 51,102 63,318 71,530<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (8,130) (9,629) (10,458) (12,315) (13,307)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 18,829 32,310 40,644 51,002 58,223<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (2,742) (2,454) (2,544) (4,298) (3,520)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 1,360 3,592 3,552 4,175 4,765<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 17,447 33,454 41,662 50,892 59,481<br />

Taxes on Profit (3,837) (9,481) (12,332) (15,896) (19,248)<br />

Minority Interests 63 60 (59) (70) (80)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 13,674 24,033 29,272 34,926 40,153<br />

Balance Sheet (Rs m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 122,646 127,292 169,162 190,243 190,845<br />

Long-term Investments 451 9,065 9,092 9,120 9,147<br />

Associates 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 5,102 5,853 6,007 6,226 6,537<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 141,668 176,563 223,845 236,127 228,158<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 38,040 43,916 46,339 50,231 53,792<br />

Total Current Assets 74,631 72,454 77,816 106,475 122,260<br />

Total Assets 216,298 249,018 301,661 342,602 350,418<br />

Shareholders' Equity 106,466 128,244 154,296 185,380 221,919<br />

Total Equity 107,122 128,867 154,977 186,131 222,751<br />

Long Term Debt 32,954 48,433 68,433 71,766 40,100<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 51,438 67,089 87,324 90,919 59,562<br />

Total Current Liabilities 57,738 53,062 59,360 65,551 68,106<br />

Total Liabilities 109,176 120,151 146,684 156,471 127,668<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 216,298 249,018 301,661 342,602 350,418<br />

Cash Flow Statement (Rs m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 17,447 33,454 41,662 50,892 59,481<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 8,130 9,629 10,458 12,315 13,307<br />

Tax Paid (5,264) (7,430) (14,257) (15,826) (19,101)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (2,182) (932) 5,484 1,729 (1,325)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 19,931 33,920 46,881 53,299 55,082<br />

Capital Expenditure (12,719) (32,986) (59,022) (26,108) (7,039)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (10,745) (1,385) (1,606) (4,643) (5,753)<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (22,399) (31,666) (59,146) (28,879) (10,404)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 7,037 3,479 20,000 3,333 (31,667)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 14 16 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (1,217) (1,660) (2,525) (2,922) (3,016)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 2,534 (1,608) 12,562 (5,463) (39,426)<br />

Change in Cash 66 647 297 18,957 5,253<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 19.7% 22.0% 22.7% 24.2% 24.7%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 13.8% 16.9% 18.0% 19.5% 20.1%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 10.0% 12.6% 13.0% 13.3% 13.8%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 17.9% 20.5% 20.7% 20.6% 19.7%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 12.7% 13.9% 14.8% 15.9% 17.0%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 16.1% 15.7% 15.3% 16.4% 18.3%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 37.5% 43.0% 48.7% 42.3% 21.2%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 35.8% 41.4% 47.1% 30.8% 9.2%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 196.5% 198.3% 194.9% 189.7% 170.2%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 3.9x 2.5x 11.4x 4.2x 1.4x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 6.1x 10.2x 9.0x 9.4x 13.7x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 3.3% 4.0% 4.1% 32.6% 39.1%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 129.3% 136.5% 131.1% 162.4% 179.5%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 93.0% 95.1% 92.2% 125.6% 139.5%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

355 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


United Microelectronics (2303 TT)<br />

Sector: Information Technology Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Semiconductors & Semiconductor Debt Service Cover (x) 8.0x<br />

Country: Taiwan<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 25.7%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 9.8x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

UMC is a world-leading semiconductor foundry that manufactures advanced process ICs for applications<br />

spanning every major sector of the semiconductor industry. It's technology includes a wide range of<br />

advanced processes, such as 65-nanometer, 45/40-nanometer, embedded memories, and Mixed-<br />

Signal/RF CMOS. UMC was the first foundry to manufacture wafers using copper materials.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (NT$ m) 52,411 49,780 51,947 33,428 42,888<br />

Gross Debt (NT$ m) 16,630 38,509 55,330 59,353 56,815<br />

Interest Expense (NT$ m) (17) (306) (526) (927) (962)<br />

EBIT (NT$ m) 22,020 5,180 6,447 9,857 9,704<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 7.4% 18.2% 25.7% 26.5% 24.5%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 177.7% 166.3% 152.3% 128.9% 146.3%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.3x 0.7x 1.1x 1.2x 1.2x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 6.5x 9.1x 8.0x 8.1x 4.5x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 1,310.7x 16.9x 12.3x 10.6x 10.1x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (NT$ m) 126,442 116,703 114,583 120,914 125,690<br />

% Change (YoY) 38.4% (7.7%) (1.8%) 5.5% 4.0%<br />

EBITDA (NT$ m) 52,515 37,551 41,239 47,269 49,986<br />

% of Sales 41.5% 32.2% 36.0% 39.1% 39.8%<br />

Net Income (NT$ m) 23,899 10,610 8,629 13,051 13,517<br />

% of Sales 18.9% 9.1% 7.5% 10.8% 10.8%<br />

Free Cash Flow (NT$ m) (8,210) (12,352) (10,071) (18,750) 17,554<br />

% of Sales (6.5%) (10.6%) (8.8%) (15.5%) 14.0%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 68,249 52,411 49,780 51,947 33,428<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (8,210) (12,352) (10,071) (18,750) 17,554<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 60,039 40,059 39,709 33,197 50,983<br />

Principal Repayments 7,533 3,457 3,523 4,322 8,882<br />

Interest Payments 17 306 526 927 962<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 7,550 3,763 4,049 5,249 9,843<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 8.0x 10.6x 9.8x 6.3x 5.2x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In NT$ m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 49,780 129.9%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 1,412 3.7%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 51,191 133.6%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 23,109 60.3%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 74,300 193.9%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 38,319 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(NT$ m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 160,355 147,729 155,936<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 38,509 55,330 59,353<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

12.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EI613697 Corp Convertible/Puttable Senior Unsecured US$ 500.0 436.0 100.00 24-May-2011 24-May-2016 N.A. N.A.<br />

EJ149831 Corp At Maturity Senior Unsecured NT$ 7,500.0 7,500.0 100.00 07-Jun-2012 07-Jun-2017 1.43% 1<br />

EJ173465 Corp At Maturity Senior Unsecured NT$ 2,500.0 2,500.0 100.00 07-Jun-2012 07-Jun-2019 1.63% 1<br />

356 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

19.4%<br />

80.6%<br />

27.2% 27.6%<br />

72.8% 72.4%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

10.0x<br />

1400.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

1200.0x<br />

1000.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

800.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

600.0x<br />

400.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

200.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (NT$)<br />

10.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

18.59<br />

16.59<br />

14.59<br />

12.59<br />

10.59<br />

8.0x<br />

10.6x<br />

9.8x<br />

6.3x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

8.59<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

United Microelectronics


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (NT$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 126,442 116,703 114,583 120,914 125,690<br />

Operating Expenses (73,926) (79,152) (73,344) (73,645) (75,704)<br />

EBITDA 52,515 37,551 41,239 47,269 49,986<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (30,496) (32,371) (34,793) (37,412) (40,282)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 22,020 5,180 6,447 9,857 9,704<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 127 (77) (274) (716) (774)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 3,195 6,814 3,065 4,765 5,765<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 115 (312) 902 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 25,384 9,380 9,902 13,905 14,696<br />

Taxes on Profit (1,606) (913) (2,383) (1,684) (1,798)<br />

Minority Interests 53 2,143 1,110 829 619<br />

Other Post-tax Items 68 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 23,899 10,610 8,629 13,051 13,517<br />

Balance Sheet (NT$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 100,013 126,270 157,840 180,410 193,657<br />

Long-term Investments 37,986 27,298 27,298 27,298 27,298<br />

Associates 9,193 11,276 12,088 12,088 12,088<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 305 351 351 351 351<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 187,118 195,774 221,062 238,870 248,789<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 41,358 34,278 30,925 42,033 31,510<br />

Total Current Assets 93,769 84,058 82,872 75,461 74,398<br />

Total Assets 280,887 279,832 303,934 314,332 323,187<br />

Shareholders' Equity 219,337 207,737 212,127 221,731 230,034<br />

Total Equity 225,136 212,125 215,405 224,179 231,863<br />

Long Term Debt 6,799 21,095 35,730 39,845 42,710<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 10,306 24,801 39,816 43,931 46,796<br />

Total Current Liabilities 45,445 42,906 48,713 46,221 44,527<br />

Total Liabilities 55,751 67,707 88,529 90,152 91,323<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 280,887 279,832 303,934 314,332 323,187<br />

Cash Flow Statement (NT$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 25,384 9,380 9,902 13,905 14,696<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 30,496 32,371 34,793 37,412 40,282<br />

Tax Paid (118) (1,453) (1,475) (1,581) (1,692)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 368 (1,889) 7,326 (13,507) 14,231<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 53,495 41,654 49,407 36,470 67,754<br />

Capital Expenditure (61,705) (54,006) (59,478) (55,220) (50,200)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 4,099 (693) 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (57,779) (55,120) (59,478) (55,220) (50,200)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (1,986) 22,329 16,477 3,678 (2,882)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net (4,306) 15 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (6,225) (14,016) (4,239) (3,447) (5,214)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (9,663) 9,923 12,239 231 (8,095)<br />

Change in Cash (13,947) (3,543) 2,168 (18,519) 9,459<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 41.5% 32.2% 36.0% 39.1% 39.8%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 17.4% 4.4% 5.6% 8.2% 7.7%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 18.9% 9.1% 7.5% 10.8% 10.8%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 11.0% 5.0% 4.1% 6.0% 6.0%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 8.3% 1.9% 2.3% 3.3% 3.1%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 16.3% 3.0% 2.8% 4.4% 4.0%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 7.4% 18.2% 25.7% 26.5% 24.5%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - 1.9% 11.9% 6.3%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 123.5% 131.3% 139.0% 142.5% 141.1%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 6.5x 9.1x 8.0x 8.1x 4.5x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 1,310.7x 16.9x 12.3x 10.6x 10.1x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 112.8% 114.4% 105.2% 70.8% 94.7%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 206.3% 195.9% 170.1% 163.3% 167.1%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 177.7% 166.3% 152.3% 128.9% 146.3%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

357 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Venture Corporation Limited (VMS SP)<br />

Sector: Information Technology Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Technology Hardware & Equipment Debt Service Cover (x) 2.1x<br />

Country: Singapore<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 14.5%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 7.0x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Venture Corporation Limited provides contract manufacturing services to electronics companies<br />

worldwide. The company also provides manufacturing, design, engineering, customization and logistic<br />

services. Venture Corporation trades and manufactures electronics and computer related products,<br />

develop and market color images products for label printing.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (S$ m) 442 513 535 463 476<br />

Gross Debt (S$ m) 203 204 270 150 150<br />

Interest Expense (S$ m) (1) (2) (2) (2) (1)<br />

EBIT (S$ m) 191 149 136 170 204<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 10.9% 10.9% 14.5% 7.8% 7.5%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 180.6% 186.1% 182.9% 161.9% 169.4%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.9x 1.0x 1.3x 1.0x 0.6x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.8x 10.0x 2.1x 0.8x 1.6x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 116.4x 84.0x 63.0x 89.2x 149.2x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (S$ m) 2,676 2,432 2,442 2,580 2,769<br />

% Change (YoY) (21.6%) (9.1%) 0.4% 5.7% 7.3%<br />

EBITDA (S$ m) 243 196 182 217 251<br />

% of Sales 9.1% 8.1% 7.5% 8.4% 9.1%<br />

Net Income (S$ m) 188 157 145 174 206<br />

% of Sales 7.0% 6.4% 5.9% 6.7% 7.4%<br />

Free Cash Flow (S$ m) 33 214 91 151 140<br />

% of Sales 1.2% 8.8% 3.7% 5.8% 5.0%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 572 442 513 535 463<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 33 214 91 151 140<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 605 655 605 686 603<br />

Principal Repayments 318 18 84 270 150<br />

Interest Payments 2 2 2 2 1<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 320 19 86 272 151<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.9x 33.6x 7.0x 2.5x 4.0x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In S$ m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 513 63.2%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 716 88.2%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 1,230 151.4%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 84 10.3%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 1,314 161.7%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 812 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

358 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

10.7% 10.9%<br />

89.3% 89.1%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(S$ m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 1,701 2,212 2,212<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 204 270 150<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

40.0x<br />

35.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

33.6x<br />

10.0x<br />

7.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

1.9x<br />

2.5x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

6.4%<br />

93.6%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

12.0x<br />

140.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

120.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

100.0x<br />

80.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

60.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (S$)<br />

10.17<br />

9.17<br />

8.17<br />

7.17<br />

6.17<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

5.17<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Venture Corporation Limited<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (S$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 2,676 2,432 2,442 2,580 2,769<br />

Operating Expenses (2,432) (2,236) (2,259) (2,363) (2,518)<br />

EBITDA 243 196 182 217 251<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (52) (47) (46) (47) (48)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 191 149 136 170 204<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 0 0 6 6 6<br />

Other Income/(Expense) (2) 6 2 1 1<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 1 2 4 4 4<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 190 158 148 181 214<br />

Taxes on Profit (2) (1) (3) (7) (8)<br />

Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 188 157 145 174 206<br />

Balance Sheet (S$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 145 144 145 145 146<br />

Long-term Investments 122 66 63 60 57<br />

Associates 18 73 76 80 84<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 758 736 723 709 694<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 1,044 1,023 1,011 998 984<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 1,060 1,019 1,054 1,114 1,204<br />

Total Current Assets 1,502 1,532 1,589 1,577 1,680<br />

Total Assets 2,545 2,555 2,600 2,575 2,664<br />

Shareholders' Equity 1,855 1,868 1,861 1,919 1,985<br />

Total Equity 1,858 1,871 1,865 1,923 1,989<br />

Long Term Debt 120 120 120 0 0<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 140 137 137 18 18<br />

Total Current Liabilities 547 547 597 635 658<br />

Total Liabilities 688 685 735 652 675<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 2,545 2,555 2,600 2,575 2,664<br />

Cash Flow Statement (S$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 190 158 148 181 214<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 52 47 46 47 48<br />

Tax Paid 1 (6) (5) (6) (7)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (185) 38 (49) (24) (69)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 68 249 126 186 175<br />

Capital Expenditure (35) (35) (35) (35) (35)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (10) 0 6 5 5<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (25) (32) (19) (22) (22)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (14) 1 66 (120) 0<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 1 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (137) (151) (151) (116) (140)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (151) (149) (85) (236) (140)<br />

Change in Cash (108) 68 22 (72) 13<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 9.1% 8.1% 7.5% 8.4% 9.1%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 7.1% 6.1% 5.6% 6.6% 7.4%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 7.0% 6.4% 5.9% 6.7% 7.4%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 10.1% 8.4% 7.8% 9.2% 10.5%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 7.3% 5.9% 5.6% 6.9% 8.1%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 13.0% 10.1% 9.1% 11.1% 12.9%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 10.9% 10.9% 14.5% 7.8% 7.5%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 142.3% 137.0% 138.2% 136.9% 134.2%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.8x 10.0x 2.1x 0.8x 1.6x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 116.4x 84.0x 63.0x 89.2x 149.2x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 80.7% 93.8% 89.6% 72.9% 72.3%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 274.4% 280.0% 266.0% 248.5% 255.3%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 180.6% 186.1% 182.9% 161.9% 169.4%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

359 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Vodacom Group Limited (VOD SJ)<br />

Sector: Telecommunication Services Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Telecommunication Services Debt Service Cover (x) 7.9x<br />

Country: South Africa<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 55.8%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 6.7x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Vodacom Group Limited (Vodacom) is an African mobile telecommunications company providing voice,<br />

messaging, data and converged services to over 47 million customers as of 31 March 2012. The<br />

company has operations in a range of African countries including South Africa, Tanzania, the Democratic<br />

Republic of Congo (DRC), Mozambique and Lesotho. At the end of March 2012, the company had over<br />

50% subscriber market share in South Africa, which is its major market and makes up more than three<br />

fourths of the company’s revenue.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Mar) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (ZAR m) 1,143 4,476 2,090 2,408 2,305<br />

Gross Debt (ZAR m) 10,063 11,016 10,448 10,731 9,473<br />

Interest Expense (ZAR m) (1,111) (800) (772) (761) (724)<br />

EBIT (ZAR m) 15,239 16,881 17,909 19,270 20,259<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 62.2% 58.2% 55.8% 52.9% 43.1%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 76.6% 91.0% 64.3% 69.3% 72.8%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.6x 0.5x 0.4x 0.4x 0.4x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 3.3x 3.7x 7.9x 3.4x 3.9x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 13.7x 21.1x 23.2x 25.3x 28.0x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (ZAR m) 61,197 66,929 69,319 73,995 77,508<br />

% Change (YoY) 4.5% 9.4% 3.6% 6.7% 4.7%<br />

EBITDA (ZAR m) 20,594 22,763 24,052 25,723 26,869<br />

% of Sales 33.7% 34.0% 34.7% 34.8% 34.7%<br />

Net Income (ZAR m) 8,245 10,156 11,784 12,530 13,256<br />

% of Sales 13.5% 15.2% 17.0% 16.9% 17.1%<br />

Free Cash Flow (ZAR m) 9,760 11,659 11,154 11,910 13,667<br />

% of Sales 15.9% 17.4% 16.1% 16.1% 17.6%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 1,214 1,143 4,476 2,090 2,408<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 9,760 11,659 11,154 11,910 13,667<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 10,974 12,802 15,630 14,000 16,075<br />

Principal Repayments 3,250 3,430 1,568 4,717 4,257<br />

Interest Payments 1,111 800 772 761 724<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 4,361 4,230 2,340 5,478 4,982<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 2.5x 3.0x 6.7x 2.6x 3.2x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In ZAR m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 4,476 23.5%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 65,115 342.0%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 69,591 365.5%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 4,797 25.2%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 74,388 390.7%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 19,042 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

360 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

6.4%<br />

93.6%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

5.3% 5.4%<br />

94.7% 94.6%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(ZAR m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 160,922 187,780 187,780<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 11,016 10,448 10,731<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

9.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

7.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

8.0x<br />

7.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

6.7x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2.5x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.6x<br />

2011A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (ZAr)<br />

15,565<br />

13,565<br />

11,565<br />

9,565<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

7,565<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Vodacom Group Limited<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (ZAR m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 61,197 66,929 69,319 73,995 77,508<br />

Operating Expenses (40,603) (44,166) (45,266) (48,272) (50,639)<br />

EBITDA 20,594 22,763 24,052 25,723 26,869<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (5,355) (5,882) (6,144) (6,453) (6,610)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 15,239 16,881 17,909 19,270 20,259<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (755) (639) (654) (678) (638)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) (303) (45) 280 0 0<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 12,638 15,933 17,534 18,592 19,621<br />

Taxes on Profit (4,659) (5,730) (5,510) (5,806) (6,094)<br />

Minority Interests 266 (47) (240) (256) (271)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 8,245 10,156 11,784 12,530 13,256<br />

Balance Sheet (ZAR m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 21,577 24,367 26,637 27,731 28,645<br />

Long-term Investments 189 201 201 201 201<br />

Associates 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 5,215 5,123 5,209 5,162 5,138<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 27,982 30,678 33,043 34,106 35,003<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 12,310 13,076 13,091 14,039 14,301<br />

Total Current Assets 13,453 17,552 15,181 16,446 16,606<br />

Total Assets 41,435 48,230 48,224 50,553 51,609<br />

Shareholders' Equity 15,622 18,530 18,315 19,904 21,556<br />

Total Equity 16,180 18,930 18,715 20,304 21,956<br />

Long Term Debt 7,280 9,012 5,295 6,037 6,208<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 8,743 10,932 7,198 7,950 8,134<br />

Total Current Liabilities 16,512 18,368 22,310 22,298 21,519<br />

Total Liabilities 25,255 29,300 29,509 30,248 29,653<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 41,435 48,230 48,224 50,553 51,609<br />

Cash Flow Statement (ZAR m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 12,638 15,933 17,534 18,592 19,621<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 5,355 5,882 6,144 6,453 6,610<br />

Tax Paid (4,982) (5,192) (5,508) (5,806) (6,094)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 359 1,124 829 (507) 392<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 16,403 19,310 19,654 19,410 21,167<br />

Capital Expenditure (6,643) (7,651) (8,500) (7,500) (7,500)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 71 59 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (6,581) (8,003) (8,383) (7,417) (7,414)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (2,838) 320 (568) 283 (1,257)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net (984) (148) 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (5,211) (7,897) (11,999) (10,941) (11,604)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (10,119) (8,556) (13,579) (11,675) (13,856)<br />

Change in Cash (297) 2,751 (2,308) 317 (103)<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 33.7% 34.0% 34.7% 34.8% 34.7%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 24.9% 25.2% 25.8% 26.0% 26.1%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 13.5% 15.2% 17.0% 16.9% 17.1%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 56.2% 59.5% 64.0% 65.6% 63.9%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 36.9% 37.9% 37.4% 39.2% 39.8%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 35.3% 40.4% 43.9% 44.8% 45.7%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 62.2% 58.2% 55.8% 52.9% 43.1%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 56.8% 38.2% 48.4% 44.4% 35.8%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 283.1% 262.5% 261.8% 258.4% 246.4%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 3.3x 3.7x 7.9x 3.4x 3.9x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 13.7x 21.1x 23.2x 25.3x 28.0x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 5.3% 20.6% 6.3% 7.7% 7.5%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 81.5% 95.6% 68.0% 73.8% 77.2%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 76.6% 91.0% 64.3% 69.3% 72.8%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

361 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


VTech Holdings Ltd. (303 HK)<br />

Sector: Information Technology Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Technology Hardware & Equipment Debt Service Cover (x) -<br />

Country: Hong Kong<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 0.0%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) -<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

VTech Holdings Limited is engaged in the design, manufacture and distribution of consumer electronic<br />

products. The Company supplies corded and cordless telephones and electronic learning products. It<br />

also provides contract manufacturing services. The Company has partnerships with AT&T and DT in<br />

connection with its manufacture and sale of fixed line equipments and accessories for its<br />

telecommunication segment.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Mar) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (US$ m) 333 327 314 340 324<br />

Gross Debt (US$ m) 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Interest Expense (US$ m) 0 0 0 0 0<br />

EBIT (US$ m) 219 210 234 250 278<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 169.5% 162.9% 160.8% 154.7% 155.1%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) - - - - -<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) - - - - -<br />

Interest Cover (x) - - - - -<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (US$ m) 1,713 1,785 1,910 2,041 2,177<br />

% Change (YoY) 11.8% 4.2% 7.0% 6.9% 6.7%<br />

EBITDA (US$ m) 252 237 265 281 309<br />

% of Sales 14.7% 13.3% 13.8% 13.7% 14.2%<br />

Net Income (US$ m) 202 192 214 229 254<br />

% of Sales 11.8% 10.8% 11.2% 11.2% 11.7%<br />

Free Cash Flow (US$ m) 129 182 180 239 212<br />

% of Sales 7.6% 10.2% 9.4% 11.7% 9.7%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 383 333 327 314 340<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 129 182 180 239 212<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 512 515 506 552 552<br />

Principal Repayments 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Interest Payments 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) - - - - -<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In US$ m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 327 -<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 1,156 -<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 1,483 -<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 -<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 1,483 -<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 0 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

362 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

100.0% 100.0% 100.0%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity<br />

(US$ m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 3,198 2,807 2,807<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 0 0 0<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

1.0x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

0.8x<br />

0.6x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.0x<br />

0<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

1.0x<br />

0.9x<br />

0.8x<br />

0.7x<br />

0.6x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.3x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.1x<br />

0 0 0 0<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

126<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

116<br />

106<br />

96<br />

86<br />

76<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

1<br />

1<br />

1<br />

0<br />

0<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

66<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

VTech Holdings Ltd.<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (US$ m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 1,713 1,785 1,910 2,041 2,177<br />

Operating Expenses (1,461) (1,548) (1,646) (1,761) (1,868)<br />

EBITDA 252 237 265 281 309<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (33) (28) (30) (30) (31)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 219 210 234 250 278<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 2 2 2 2 2<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 220 212 236 252 280<br />

Taxes on Profit (19) (20) (22) (23) (26)<br />

Minority Interests 1 0 0 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 202 192 214 229 254<br />

Balance Sheet (US$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 72 84 87 91 96<br />

Long-term Investments 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Associates 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 89 102 105 109 114<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 455 484 520 548 586<br />

Total Current Assets 788 811 834 889 910<br />

Total Assets 877 913 939 998 1,023<br />

Shareholders' Equity 544 556 577 595 620<br />

Total Equity 544 556 577 595 620<br />

Long Term Debt 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 4 6 6 6 6<br />

Total Current Liabilities 329 351 355 398 397<br />

Total Liabilities 333 357 361 403 403<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 877 913 939 998 1,023<br />

Cash Flow Statement (US$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 220 212 236 252 280<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 33 28 30 30 31<br />

Tax Paid (23) (21) (23) (23) (25)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (72) 1 (31) 14 (39)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 155 211 213 274 247<br />

Capital Expenditure (26) (30) (33) (35) (35)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 96 (60) 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Investing 70 (89) (33) (35) (35)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 7 4 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (194) (195) (193) (212) (228)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (187) (191) (193) (212) (228)<br />

Change in Cash 38 (69) (13) 27 (17)<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 14.7% 13.3% 13.8% 13.7% 14.2%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 12.8% 11.7% 12.3% 12.3% 12.8%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 11.8% 10.8% 11.2% 11.2% 11.7%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 38.1% 34.9% 37.8% 39.1% 41.8%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 25.6% 23.6% 25.5% 26.1% 27.7%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 113.2% 84.5% 84.2% 85.8% 89.7%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 162.6% 162.7% 163.3% 165.2% 166.4%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) - - - - -<br />

Interest Cover (x) - - - - -<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 101.1% 93.0% 88.3% 85.6% 81.4%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 239.3% 231.0% 234.7% 223.5% 229.1%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 169.5% 162.9% 160.8% 154.7% 155.1%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

363 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Wesfarmers Limited (WES AU)<br />

Sector: Consumer Staples Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Food & Staples Retailing<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.8x<br />

Country: Australia<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 25.2%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 2.2x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Wesfarmers Limited (Wesfarmer) is one of Australia’s largest retailers, having diverse business<br />

operations which include supermarkets and department stores; home improvement and office supplies;<br />

coal mining; insurance; chemicals, energy and fertilisers; and industrial and safety products. Wesfarmers<br />

began its operations in 1914 as a Westralian Farmers Co-operative. Its early operations included wool<br />

and wheat merchandising, grain and fruit exporting, oil distribution to rural areas, as well as Western<br />

Australia’s first public radio station. The Company has continued to transform the size and shape of its<br />

business operations through strategic acquisitions and divestments.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 30 Jun) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (A$ m) 2,658 3,081 3,448 4,494 5,930<br />

Gross Debt (A$ m) 4,879 5,502 6,551 7,701 8,979<br />

Interest Expense (A$ m) (472) (445) (538) (677) (776)<br />

EBIT (A$ m) 2,870 3,235 3,566 3,855 4,097<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 19.3% 21.5% 25.2% 29.2% 33.6%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 60.0% 54.9% 59.3% 66.7% 66.6%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 1.3x 1.2x 1.3x 1.4x 1.6x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.7x 2.5x 1.8x 2.0x 1.7x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 6.8x 7.7x 7.3x 6.7x 6.1x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (A$ m) 54,730 57,936 60,827 63,981 67,472<br />

% Change (YoY) 5.9% 5.9% 5.0% 5.2% 5.5%<br />

EBITDA (A$ m) 3,793 4,230 4,619 4,934 5,203<br />

% of Sales 6.9% 7.3% 7.6% 7.7% 7.7%<br />

Net Income (A$ m) 1,922 2,126 2,388 2,598 2,768<br />

% of Sales 3.5% 3.7% 3.9% 4.1% 4.1%<br />

Free Cash Flow (A$ m) 855 1,015 1,163 1,926 2,321<br />

% of Sales 1.6% 1.8% 1.9% 3.0% 3.4%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 3,219 2,658 3,081 3,448 4,494<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 855 1,015 1,163 1,926 2,321<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 4,074 3,673 4,244 5,373 6,815<br />

Principal Repayments 3,523 901 1,451 1,350 1,722<br />

Interest Payments 423 418 488 577 676<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 3,946 1,319 1,939 1,927 2,398<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.0x 2.8x 2.2x 2.8x 2.8x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In A$ m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 3,081 23.0%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 11,965 89.3%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 15,046 112.3%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 2,298 17.2%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 17,344 129.5%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 13,396 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(A$ m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 34,596 42,684 42,684<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 5,502 6,551 7,701<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

3.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EJ297361 Corp At Maturity Senior Unsecured EUR 650.0 650.0 99.10 02-Aug-2012 02-Aug-2022 2.75% 1<br />

EH297778 Corp Callable Company Guarantee US$ 650.0 650.0 100.00 10-Apr-2008 10-Apr-2013 7.00% 2<br />

EI672001 Corp Callable Company Guarantee US$ 650.0 650.0 100.00 18-May-2011 18-May-2016 2.98% 2<br />

364 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

13.7%<br />

86.3%<br />

13.3%<br />

86.7%<br />

15.3%<br />

84.7%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

3.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

7.8x<br />

2.5x<br />

7.6x<br />

2.0x<br />

7.4x<br />

7.2x<br />

1.5x<br />

7.0x<br />

6.8x<br />

1.0x<br />

6.6x<br />

0.5x<br />

6.4x<br />

6.2x<br />

0.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (A$)<br />

2.5x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

44<br />

39<br />

34<br />

29<br />

1.0x<br />

2.8x<br />

2.2x<br />

2.8x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

24<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Wesfarmers Limited


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (A$ m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 54,730 57,936 60,827 63,981 67,472<br />

Operating Expenses (50,937) (53,706) (56,208) (59,047) (62,270)<br />

EBITDA 3,793 4,230 4,619 4,934 5,203<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (923) (995) (1,053) (1,079) (1,106)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 2,870 3,235 3,566 3,855 4,097<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (278) (274) (299) (324) (346)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 141 273 171 132 143<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits (15) (16) (13) (9) 4<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 2,706 3,044 3,425 3,654 3,898<br />

Taxes on Profit (784) (918) (1,038) (1,056) (1,129)<br />

Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 1,922 2,126 2,388 2,598 2,768<br />

Balance Sheet (A$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 8,302 9,463 10,076 10,732 11,336<br />

Long-term Investments 488 208 161 161 166<br />

Associates 471 429 436 447 471<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 20,580 20,490 20,484 20,483 20,481<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 30,596 31,401 31,968 32,635 33,265<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 7,560 7,830 8,268 8,277 9,066<br />

Total Current Assets 10,218 10,911 11,715 12,770 14,996<br />

Total Assets 40,814 42,312 43,684 45,405 48,261<br />

Shareholders' Equity 25,329 25,627 25,987 26,359 26,729<br />

Total Equity 25,329 25,627 25,987 26,359 26,729<br />

Long Term Debt 4,613 3,881 5,031 5,809 5,849<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 6,763 5,938 6,982 7,822 7,943<br />

Total Current Liabilities 8,722 10,747 10,714 11,224 13,590<br />

Total Liabilities 15,485 16,685 17,696 19,046 21,533<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 40,814 42,312 43,684 45,405 48,261<br />

Cash Flow Statement (A$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 2,706 3,044 3,425 3,654 3,898<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 923 995 1,053 1,079 1,106<br />

Tax Paid (527) (835) (952) (1,019) (1,089)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (41) 359 (414) 214 422<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 2,917 3,641 3,063 3,926 4,321<br />

Capital Expenditure (2,062) (2,626) (1,900) (2,000) (2,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 186 457 584 196 196<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (1,876) (2,169) (1,316) (1,804) (1,804)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (232) 542 1,049 1,150 1,278<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (1,557) (1,789) (2,027) (2,226) (2,399)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (1,784) (1,242) (978) (1,076) (1,121)<br />

Change in Cash (743) 230 769 1,046 1,396<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 6.9% 7.3% 7.6% 7.7% 7.7%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 5.2% 5.6% 5.9% 6.0% 6.1%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 3.5% 3.7% 3.9% 4.1% 4.1%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 7.7% 8.3% 9.3% 9.9% 10.4%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 7.5% 8.1% 8.7% 9.2% 9.5%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 7.2% 7.8% 8.3% 8.9% 9.4%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 19.3% 21.5% 25.2% 29.2% 33.6%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 15.7% 17.1% 17.9% 18.1% 17.4%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 160.0% 163.1% 166.6% 170.2% 176.4%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.7x 2.5x 1.8x 2.0x 1.7x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 6.8x 7.7x 7.3x 6.7x 6.1x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 10.3% 10.5% 17.7% 26.2% 31.9%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 117.2% 101.5% 109.3% 113.8% 110.3%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 60.0% 54.9% 59.3% 66.7% 66.6%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

365 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Wilmar International Limited (WIL SP)<br />

Sector: Consumer Staples Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Food Beverage & Tobacco<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.6x<br />

Country: Singapore<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 158.1%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 8.7x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Wilmar International Limited, founded in 1991, is Asia's leading agribusiness group. Its business<br />

activities include oil palm cultivation and processing, oilseeds crushing, edible oils refining, sugar milling<br />

and refining, specialty fats, biodiesel manufacturing and grains processing. The Group also<br />

manufactures and distributes fertilizers and owns a fleet of vessels.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (US$ m) 8,423 11,388 14,118 13,490 13,546<br />

Gross Debt (US$ m) 17,425 20,889 24,293 24,456 24,629<br />

Interest Expense (US$ m) (206) (548) (669) (731) (736)<br />

EBIT (US$ m) 1,029 1,346 1,647 1,789 2,116<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 138.2% 146.6% 158.1% 147.5% 136.5%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 72.7% 74.6% 80.0% 75.0% 73.9%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 10.0x 10.5x 10.2x 10.0x 8.6x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 6.5x 1.8x 1.6x 3.2x 3.8x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 5.0x 2.5x 2.5x 2.4x 2.9x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (US$ m) 30,378 44,710 47,060 52,637 59,622<br />

% Change (YoY) 27.2% 47.2% 5.3% 11.9% 13.3%<br />

EBITDA (US$ m) 1,344 1,824 2,209 2,440 2,855<br />

% of Sales 4.4% 4.1% 4.7% 4.6% 4.8%<br />

Net Income (US$ m) 1,324 1,601 1,352 1,431 1,704<br />

% of Sales 4.4% 3.6% 2.9% 2.7% 2.9%<br />

Free Cash Flow (US$ m) (3,384) 392 (247) (499) 210<br />

% of Sales (11.1%) 0.9% (0.5%) (0.9%) 0.4%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 5,929 8,423 11,388 14,118 13,490<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (3,384) 392 (247) (499) 210<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 2,545 8,815 11,142 13,619 13,701<br />

Principal Repayments 0 395 610 23 14<br />

Interest Payments 206 548 669 731 736<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 206 943 1,279 755 750<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 12.3x 9.4x 8.7x 18.0x 18.3x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In US$ m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 11,388 265.7%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 630 14.7%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 12,018 280.4%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 10,100 235.6%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 22,118 516.0%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 4,286 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(US$ m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 24,685 17,499 18,505<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 20,889 24,293 24,456<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

7.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

20.0x<br />

18.0x<br />

16.0x<br />

18.0x<br />

14.0x<br />

12.0x<br />

12.3x<br />

10.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

9.4x<br />

8.7x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EH094412 Corp Convertible/Puttable Senior Unsecured US$ 600.0 575.0 100.00 18-Dec-2007 18-Dec-2012 N.A. N.A.<br />

EI961167 Corp At Maturity Senior Unsecured S$ 250.0 250.0 100.00 25-Jan-2012 25-Jan-2017 3.50% 2<br />

EI961175 Corp At Maturity Senior Unsecured S$ 100.0 100.0 100.00 25-Jan-2012 25-Jan-2019 4.10% 2<br />

366 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (S$)<br />

45.8%<br />

54.2%<br />

58.1% 56.9%<br />

41.9% 43.1%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

6.55<br />

5.55<br />

4.55<br />

3.55<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

2.55<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Wilmar International Limited


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (US$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 30,378 44,710 47,060 52,637 59,622<br />

Operating Expenses (29,033) (42,886) (44,851) (50,196) (56,767)<br />

EBITDA 1,344 1,824 2,209 2,440 2,855<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (316) (479) (562) (651) (739)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 1,029 1,346 1,647 1,789 2,116<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (73) (259) (330) (401) (413)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 641 796 276 289 315<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 38 185 111 114 118<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 1,644 2,079 1,703 1,791 2,136<br />

Taxes on Profit (190) (379) (280) (284) (343)<br />

Minority Interests (131) (99) (71) (75) (90)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 1,324 1,601 1,352 1,431 1,704<br />

Balance Sheet (US$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 7,248 8,219 9,428 10,544 11,574<br />

Long-term Investments 251 274 434 434 434<br />

Associates 1,264 1,579 1,634 1,691 1,750<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 4,371 4,410 4,449 4,489 4,528<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 14,056 15,875 17,267 18,471 19,596<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 11,613 12,377 12,826 14,183 14,802<br />

Total Current Assets 20,035 23,765 26,944 27,673 28,348<br />

Total Assets 34,091 39,640 44,211 46,144 47,944<br />

Shareholders' Equity 11,856 13,370 14,439 15,599 16,997<br />

Total Equity 12,606 14,248 15,367 16,580 18,041<br />

Long Term Debt 2,522 2,480 3,667 2,853 2,040<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 3,195 3,262 4,448 3,635 2,822<br />

Total Current Liabilities 18,290 22,130 24,396 25,929 27,081<br />

Total Liabilities 21,485 25,391 28,844 29,564 29,903<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 34,091 39,640 44,211 46,144 47,944<br />

Cash Flow Statement (US$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 1,644 2,079 1,703 1,791 2,136<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 316 479 562 651 739<br />

Tax Paid (265) (269) (260) (275) (317)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (3,926) 22 (359) (691) (355)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations (2,319) 1,948 1,353 1,201 1,910<br />

Capital Expenditure (1,065) (1,555) (1,600) (1,700) (1,700)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (1,587) (531) (99) (56) (54)<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (2,629) (2,068) (1,643) (1,699) (1,695)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 7,665 3,762 3,430 187 187<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 12 11 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (426) (309) (305) (294) (332)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 4,956 1,000 3,125 (107) (145)<br />

Change in Cash 8 879 2,835 (605) 70<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 4.4% 4.1% 4.7% 4.6% 4.8%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 3.4% 3.0% 3.5% 3.4% 3.5%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 4.4% 3.6% 2.9% 2.7% 2.9%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 11.6% 12.7% 9.7% 9.5% 10.5%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 4.0% 4.3% 4.6% 4.7% 5.1%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 5.2% 5.1% 5.9% 6.0% 6.6%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 138.2% 146.6% 158.1% 147.5% 136.5%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 131.1% 136.9% 130.9% 126.1% 116.6%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 252.5% 292.3% 301.5% 300.8% 288.7%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 6.5x 1.8x 1.6x 3.2x 3.8x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 5.0x 2.5x 2.5x 2.4x 2.9x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 4.9% 6.2% 17.1% 13.7% 13.3%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 109.5% 107.4% 110.4% 106.7% 104.7%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 72.7% 74.6% 80.0% 75.0% 73.9%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

367 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Wipro Ltd. (WPRO IN)<br />

Sector: Information Technology Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Software & Services<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.7x<br />

Country: India<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 24.6%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 4.6x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Wipro Limited (Wipro), incorporated in 1945, is engaged in the areas of information technology (IT),<br />

services, IT products and consumer care and lighting products. The Company is organized in four<br />

segments: IT services, IT products, consumer care and lighting, and others.The Company’s IT services<br />

segment provide a range of IT and IT-enabled services, which includes IT consulting, custom application<br />

design, development, re-engineering and maintenance, systems integration, package implementation,<br />

technology infrastructure outsourcing, business process outsourcing (BPO) services and research and<br />

development services in the areas of hardware and software design.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Mar) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Rs m) 117,191 129,990 192,278 232,065 273,630<br />

Gross Debt (Rs m) 52,802 58,958 81,821 75,645 70,305<br />

Interest Expense (Rs m) (696) (902) (1,399) (1,565) (1,450)<br />

EBIT (Rs m) 57,223 60,735 73,521 80,836 88,813<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 22.0% 20.6% 24.6% 19.7% 16.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 221.2% 223.3% 214.9% 237.1% 259.9%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.9x 0.8x 0.8x 0.9x 0.7x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.7x 0.8x 1.7x 1.1x 1.2x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 73.7x 57.5x 55.9x 54.9x 65.2x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (Rs m) 310,542 371,971 436,376 474,301 516,650<br />

% Change (YoY) 14.2% 19.8% 17.3% 8.7% 8.9%<br />

EBITDA (Rs m) 65,434 70,864 84,922 92,601 101,604<br />

% of Sales 21.1% 19.1% 19.5% 19.5% 19.7%<br />

Net Income (Rs m) 52,977 55,730 65,756 72,617 80,247<br />

% of Sales 17.1% 15.0% 15.1% 15.3% 15.5%<br />

Free Cash Flow (Rs m) 28,226 27,099 48,456 55,389 56,110<br />

% of Sales 9.1% 7.3% 11.1% 11.7% 10.9%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 107,804 117,191 129,990 192,278 232,065<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 28,226 27,099 48,456 55,389 56,110<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 136,030 144,290 178,446 247,667 288,176<br />

Principal Repayments 82,718 70,127 37,137 66,177 65,339<br />

Interest Payments 776 1,057 1,315 1,471 1,363<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 83,494 71,184 38,451 67,648 66,703<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.6x 2.0x 4.6x 3.7x 4.3x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In Rs m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 129,990 42.6%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 295,303 96.9%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 425,293 139.5%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 23,119 7.6%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 448,412 147.1%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 304,877 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

368 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

5.2%<br />

94.8%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

7.8%<br />

92.2%<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(Rs m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 1,075,567 968,135 968,135<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 58,958 81,821 75,645<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

5.0x<br />

4.5x<br />

4.6x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.5x<br />

3.0x<br />

3.7x<br />

2.5x<br />

2.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.0x<br />

1.6x<br />

2011A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

7.2%<br />

92.8%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

2.0x<br />

80.0x<br />

70.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

60.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

20.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (Rs)<br />

530<br />

480<br />

430<br />

380<br />

330<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

280<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Wipro Ltd.<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (Rs m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 310,542 371,971 436,376 474,301 516,650<br />

Operating Expenses (245,108) (301,107) (351,453) (381,701) (415,046)<br />

EBITDA 65,434 70,864 84,922 92,601 101,604<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (8,211) (10,129) (11,401) (11,764) (12,791)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 57,223 60,735 73,521 80,836 88,813<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 3,281 5,440 8,490 11,504 13,696<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 1,883 3,242 2,577 1,453 1,859<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 648 333 (172) 57 113<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 63,035 69,750 84,416 93,852 104,482<br />

Taxes on Profit (9,714) (13,763) (18,393) (20,955) (23,904)<br />

Minority Interests (344) (257) (267) (280) (330)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 52,977 55,730 65,756 72,617 80,247<br />

Balance Sheet (Rs m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 47,846 53,529 56,066 57,100 56,916<br />

Long-term Investments 1,680 2,591 2,591 2,591 2,591<br />

Associates 2,993 3,232 2,960 2,925 2,948<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 58,369 72,166 73,303 74,306 75,275<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 139,129 162,513 165,253 167,714 169,342<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 115,123 143,498 164,175 175,829 192,464<br />

Total Current Assets 232,314 273,488 356,453 407,894 466,094<br />

Total Assets 371,443 436,001 521,706 575,607 635,436<br />

Shareholders' Equity 239,680 285,314 331,904 382,478 438,361<br />

Total Equity 240,371 286,163 332,850 383,515 439,520<br />

Long Term Debt 19,759 22,510 18,008 13,506 9,004<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 30,454 32,153 28,768 25,399 22,219<br />

Total Current Liabilities 100,618 117,685 160,088 166,693 173,697<br />

Total Liabilities 131,072 149,838 188,856 192,093 195,916<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 371,443 436,001 521,706 575,607 635,436<br />

Cash Flow Statement (Rs m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 63,035 69,750 84,416 93,852 104,482<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 8,211 10,129 11,401 11,764 12,791<br />

Tax Paid (9,714) (13,763) (18,393) (20,955) (23,904)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (21,378) (19,482) (4,642) (3,322) (8,765)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 40,437 40,076 63,456 69,389 70,110<br />

Capital Expenditure (12,211) (12,977) (15,000) (14,000) (14,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (11,391) (3,089) (233) 776 547<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (17,239) (8,056) (4,373) 1,016 3,277<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (10,122) 712 22,863 (6,177) (5,339)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 25 22 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (15,585) (17,229) (20,423) (23,427) (25,886)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (26,378) (17,397) 1,042 (31,169) (32,676)<br />

Change in Cash (3,180) 14,623 60,125 39,236 40,711<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 21.1% 19.1% 19.5% 19.5% 19.7%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 18.4% 16.3% 16.8% 17.0% 17.2%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 17.1% 15.0% 15.1% 15.3% 15.5%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 24.3% 21.2% 21.3% 20.3% 19.6%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 17.5% 16.7% 17.4% 17.1% 17.2%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 28.6% 24.3% 25.8% 27.2% 28.7%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 22.0% 20.6% 24.6% 19.7% 16.0%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 160.9% 153.8% 155.2% 153.6% 147.5%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.7x 0.8x 1.7x 1.1x 1.2x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 73.7x 57.5x 55.9x 54.9x 65.2x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 60.8% 66.0% 86.1% 106.2% 125.4%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 230.9% 232.4% 222.7% 244.7% 268.3%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 221.2% 223.3% 214.9% 237.1% 259.9%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

369 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Wistron Corp. (3231 TT)<br />

Sector: Information Technology Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Technology Hardware & Equipment Debt Service Cover (x) 0.6x<br />

Country: Taiwan<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 73.0%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.8x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Wistron was established in 2001 as a design, manufacturing and services (DMS) company spun off from<br />

Acer Inc. With headquarters in Taipei, Taiwan, Wistron Corporation is a leading ODM and service<br />

Company that focuses on providing leading OEMs in the global technology industry with quality and<br />

effective end-to-end services from initial product conceptualization and product development to volume<br />

manufacturing and after sales service. Wistron is among the top three biggest Notebook makers in<br />

Taiwan, along with Quanta Inc. and Compal Electronics, with each of the top five brands as clients – HP,<br />

Acer, Dell, Lenovo and Toshiba.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (NT$ m) 40,764 45,569 24,900 21,030 16,599<br />

Gross Debt (NT$ m) 41,990 56,502 46,691 39,749 34,570<br />

Interest Expense (NT$ m) (581) (992) (1,498) (1,254) (1,078)<br />

EBIT (NT$ m) 13,759 10,582 8,431 9,711 10,640<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 73.8% 91.8% 73.0% 58.4% 47.7%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 93.3% 88.9% 87.4% 86.5% 89.5%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 1.3x 2.9x 3.4x 2.4x 1.9x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 32.7x 0.7x 0.6x 0.8x 0.9x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 23.7x 10.7x 5.6x 7.7x 9.9x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (NT$ m) 615,185 658,367 651,020 680,726 724,163<br />

% Change (YoY) 12.5% 7.0% (1.1%) 4.6% 6.4%<br />

EBITDA (NT$ m) 19,015 16,756 15,260 17,739 19,648<br />

% of Sales 3.1% 2.5% 2.3% 2.6% 2.7%<br />

Net Income (NT$ m) 12,030 9,065 6,966 7,593 8,307<br />

% of Sales 2.0% 1.4% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1%<br />

Free Cash Flow (NT$ m) (6,780) (3,224) (7,571) 5,862 3,771<br />

% of Sales (1.1%) (0.5%) (1.2%) 0.9% 0.5%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 20,796 40,764 45,569 24,900 21,030<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (6,780) (3,224) (7,571) 5,862 3,771<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 14,016 37,540 37,998 30,762 24,801<br />

Principal Repayments 0 19,206 19,812 16,942 15,179<br />

Interest Payments 581 992 1,498 1,254 1,078<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 581 20,198 21,309 18,196 16,257<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 24.1x 1.9x 1.8x 1.7x 1.5x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In NT$ m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 45,569 54.7%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 23,435 28.1%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 69,004 82.8%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 53,489 64.2%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 122,493 147.0%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 83,319 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

41.6% 41.6% 37.9%<br />

58.4% 58.4% 62.1%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(NT$ m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 79,351 65,418 65,201<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 56,502 46,691 39,749<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

35.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

30.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

1.9x 1.8x 1.7x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EI959918 Corp Convertible Senior Unsecured US$ 280.0 279.6 100.00 19-Jan-2012 19-Jan-2015 N.A. N.A.<br />

370 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (NT$)<br />

25.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

24.1x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

58<br />

53<br />

48<br />

43<br />

38<br />

33<br />

28<br />

23<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Wistron Corp.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (NT$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 615,185 658,367 651,020 680,726 724,163<br />

Operating Expenses (596,169) (641,611) (635,760) (662,987) (704,514)<br />

EBITDA 19,015 16,756 15,260 17,739 19,648<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (5,257) (6,174) (6,829) (8,028) (9,009)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 13,759 10,582 8,431 9,711 10,640<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (104) 113 134 (144) (145)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 607 615 371 54 60<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 333 365 269 311 358<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 15,345 11,628 9,176 9,931 10,913<br />

Taxes on Profit (3,305) (2,563) (2,210) (2,338) (2,605)<br />

Minority Interests (10) 0 0 0 0<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 12,030 9,065 6,966 7,593 8,307<br />

Balance Sheet (NT$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 16,736 23,255 27,266 28,456 27,622<br />

Long-term Investments 3,142 3,165 3,165 3,165 3,165<br />

Associates 4,663 5,384 5,653 5,964 6,321<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 3,113 3,479 3,561 3,633 3,732<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 36,481 46,838 49,493 50,165 49,321<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 140,408 162,091 165,921 182,979 187,436<br />

Total Current Assets 181,172 207,660 190,821 204,009 204,035<br />

Total Assets 217,654 254,498 240,314 254,174 253,357<br />

Shareholders' Equity 56,870 61,550 63,943 68,025 72,506<br />

Total Equity 56,870 61,550 63,943 68,025 72,506<br />

Long Term Debt 143 493 404 22 11<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 2,674 3,761 3,657 3,275 3,264<br />

Total Current Liabilities 158,110 189,188 172,714 182,875 177,587<br />

Total Liabilities 160,784 192,949 176,371 186,149 180,851<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 217,654 254,498 240,314 254,174 253,357<br />

Cash Flow Statement (NT$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 15,345 11,628 9,176 9,931 10,913<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 5,257 6,174 6,829 8,028 9,009<br />

Tax Paid (2,613) (3,470) (2,210) (2,338) (2,605)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (9,415) (4,987) (10,516) (338) (4,577)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 7,662 11,081 3,039 14,972 12,381<br />

Capital Expenditure (14,442) (14,305) (10,610) (9,110) (8,610)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 641 485 626 806 931<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (14,303) (15,242) (9,323) (8,390) (7,807)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 35,039 14,071 (9,812) (6,942) (5,179)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 129 240 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (5,049) (6,300) (4,573) (3,511) (3,827)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 30,119 8,106 (14,385) (10,453) (9,006)<br />

Change in Cash 23,479 3,944 (20,669) (3,870) (4,431)<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 3.1% 2.5% 2.3% 2.6% 2.7%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 2.2% 1.6% 1.3% 1.4% 1.5%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 2.0% 1.4% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 21.9% 15.3% 11.1% 11.5% 11.8%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 7.2% 5.0% 4.1% 4.4% 4.6%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 24.0% 13.7% 8.7% 9.2% 9.8%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 73.8% 91.8% 73.0% 58.4% 47.7%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 2.4% 17.8% 34.1% 27.5% 24.8%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 361.9% 398.7% 394.3% 374.7% 361.2%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 32.7x 0.7x 0.6x 0.8x 0.9x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 23.7x 10.7x 5.6x 7.7x 9.9x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 25.7% 24.1% 14.4% 11.5% 9.3%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 114.6% 109.8% 110.5% 111.6% 114.9%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 93.3% 88.9% 87.4% 86.5% 89.5%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

371 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Woodside Petroleum Ltd. (WPL AU)<br />

Sector: Energy Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Energy<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 3.5x<br />

Country: Australia<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 28.1%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.3x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Woodside Petroleum Ltd., is Australia’s second largest oil and natural gas producer. The company is<br />

primarily engaged in the exploration, development and production of oil & natural gas in Australia and<br />

United States. It also has interests in oil & gas assets in the Gulf of Mexico, Brazil and Korea. The<br />

company serves a large customer base spread across Japan, China, Korea and other countries in the<br />

Asia-Pacific region.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (US$ m) 974 57 1,428 1,658 1,212<br />

Gross Debt (US$ m) 4,915 5,102 4,332 3,571 2,232<br />

Interest Expense (US$ m) (21) (36) (163) (149) (102)<br />

EBIT (US$ m) 2,105 2,416 3,563 3,781 3,480<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 42.1% 38.5% 28.1% 21.6% 12.7%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 79.4% 34.0% 86.9% 78.5% 78.1%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 1.7x 1.6x 1.1x 0.8x 0.6x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 35.0x 84.5x 3.5x 3.8x 2.2x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 100.2x 67.1x 21.8x 25.3x 34.1x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (US$ m) 4,193 4,802 6,387 6,717 6,385<br />

% Change (YoY) 20.2% 14.5% 33.0% 5.2% (5.0%)<br />

EBITDA (US$ m) 2,854 3,043 4,470 4,825 4,536<br />

% of Sales 68.1% 63.4% 70.0% 71.8% 71.0%<br />

Net Income (US$ m) 1,575 1,507 3,249 2,521 2,340<br />

% of Sales 37.6% 31.4% 50.9% 37.5% 36.7%<br />

Free Cash Flow (US$ m) (1,545) (1,342) 1,216 2,314 2,079<br />

% of Sales (36.8%) (27.9%) 19.0% 34.4% 32.6%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 1,203 963 41 1,412 1,642<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (1,545) (1,342) 1,216 2,314 2,079<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) (342) (379) 1,257 3,726 3,721<br />

Principal Repayments 42 0 770 761 1,339<br />

Interest Payments 21 36 163 149 102<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 63 36 933 910 1,441<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) (5.4x) (10.5x) 1.3x 4.1x 2.6x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In US$ m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 41 1.0%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 9,711 225.9%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 9,752 226.8%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 2,179 50.7%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 11,931 277.5%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 4,299 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

16.8% 13.2% 10.9%<br />

83.2% 86.8% 89.1%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(US$ m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 25,183 28,374 29,285<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 5,102 4,332 3,571<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

90.0x<br />

120.0x<br />

80.0x<br />

70.0x<br />

100.0x<br />

60.0x<br />

80.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

60.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

6.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

4.1x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

1.3x<br />

(2.0x)<br />

(4.0x)<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

(6.0x)<br />

(8.0x)<br />

(10.0x)<br />

(5.4x)<br />

(12.0x)<br />

(10.5x)<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EI036006 Corp Callable Company Guarantee US$ 700.0 700.0 99.30 10-Nov-2009 10-Nov-2014 4.50% 2<br />

EI664116 Corp Callable Company Guarantee US$ 700.0 700.0 99.90 10-May-2011 10-May-2021 4.60% 2<br />

EH735069 Corp Callable Company Guarantee US$ 600.0 600.0 98.85 03-Mar-2009 01-Mar-2019 8.75% 2<br />

372 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (A$)<br />

46<br />

41<br />

36<br />

31<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

26<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Woodside Petroleum Ltd.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (US$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 4,193 4,802 6,387 6,717 6,385<br />

Operating Expenses (1,339) (1,759) (1,918) (1,893) (1,849)<br />

EBITDA 2,854 3,043 4,470 4,825 4,536<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (749) (627) (907) (1,044) (1,056)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 2,105 2,416 3,563 3,781 3,480<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 18 (26) (145) (111) (67)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) (91) (216) (52) 46 44<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 2,274 2,186 4,761 3,720 3,463<br />

Taxes on Profit (697) (677) (1,503) (1,191) (1,114)<br />

Minority Interests (2) (2) (9) (9) (9)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 1,575 1,507 3,249 2,521 2,340<br />

Balance Sheet (US$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 4,510 4,926 12,126 14,756 14,421<br />

Long-term Investments 111 86 86 86 86<br />

Associates 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 18,617 21,726 21,910 22,074 22,331<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 605 957 1,032 1,085 1,115<br />

Total Current Assets 1,579 1,014 2,461 2,743 2,327<br />

Total Assets 20,196 22,740 24,370 24,817 24,659<br />

Shareholders' Equity 11,091 12,658 14,771 15,898 16,971<br />

Total Equity 11,686 13,269 15,390 16,526 17,608<br />

Long Term Debt 4,512 4,332 3,571 2,232 1,492<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 6,670 7,059 6,384 5,069 4,354<br />

Total Current Liabilities 1,840 2,412 2,595 3,221 2,697<br />

Total Liabilities 8,510 9,471 8,980 8,291 7,051<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 20,196 22,740 24,370 24,817 24,659<br />

Cash Flow Statement (US$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 2,274 2,186 4,761 3,720 3,463<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 749 627 907 1,044 1,056<br />

Tax Paid (803) (628) (1,344) (1,215) (1,129)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 47 (225) 15 13 54<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 2,104 2,242 3,110 3,692 3,579<br />

Capital Expenditure (3,649) (3,584) (1,894) (1,378) (1,500)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 708 51 2,062 70 82<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (2,941) (3,533) 168 (1,308) (1,418)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (42) 172 (770) (761) (1,339)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 1,215 194 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (547) (652) (1,145) (1,402) (1,276)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 608 362 (1,906) (2,155) (2,607)<br />

Change in Cash (229) (929) 1,371 229 (445)<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 68.1% 63.4% 70.0% 71.8% 71.0%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 50.2% 50.3% 55.8% 56.3% 54.5%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 37.6% 31.4% 50.9% 37.5% 36.7%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 15.8% 12.7% 23.7% 16.4% 14.2%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 11.3% 11.3% 15.2% 15.5% 14.2%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 9.0% 8.6% 11.6% 12.2% 11.1%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 42.1% 38.5% 28.1% 21.6% 12.7%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 33.8% 38.1% 19.0% 11.7% 5.9%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 190.7% 180.8% 171.8% 160.4% 150.5%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 35.0x 84.5x 3.5x 3.8x 2.2x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 100.2x 67.1x 21.8x 25.3x 34.1x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 52.3% 1.7% 54.4% 51.0% 44.4%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 85.8% 42.0% 94.8% 85.1% 86.3%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 79.4% 34.0% 86.9% 78.5% 78.1%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

373 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Woolworths Ltd. (WOW AU)<br />

Sector: Consumer Staples Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Food & Staples Retailing<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.3x<br />

Country: Australia<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 71.6%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.3x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Woolworths Limited (Woolworths) is an Australian owned company that derives the bulk of its income<br />

from retailing food & groceries, liquor, petrol, general merchandise and consumer electronics in Australia<br />

and New Zealand. The Company also operates hotels which generate revenue from pubs, food,<br />

accommodation, and gaming operations. It is the largest food and grocery retailer in Australia and<br />

largest retail brand by turnover in New Zealand sustained by growth in market share, customer numbers,<br />

basket size and items sold.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 30 Jun) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (A$ m) 1,520 833 2,620 2,254 1,863<br />

Gross Debt (A$ m) 4,845 4,750 6,467 6,386 5,759<br />

Interest Expense (A$ m) (332) (396) (407) (461) (428)<br />

EBIT (A$ m) 3,044 3,139 3,383 3,633 3,789<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 61.8% 56.2% 71.6% 67.4% 58.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 32.3% 31.1% 40.5% 35.4% 29.3%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 1.1x 1.2x 1.3x 1.4x 1.3x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.2x 0.2x 0.3x 0.3x 0.3x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 9.2x 7.9x 8.3x 7.9x 8.8x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (A$ m) 52,609 55,130 57,990 60,990 64,214<br />

% Change (YoY) 1.8% 4.8% 5.2% 5.2% 5.3%<br />

EBITDA (A$ m) 3,902 4,035 4,291 4,573 4,739<br />

% of Sales 7.4% 7.3% 7.4% 7.5% 7.4%<br />

Net Income (A$ m) 2,124 1,817 2,342 2,507 2,644<br />

% of Sales 4.0% 3.3% 4.0% 4.1% 4.1%<br />

Free Cash Flow (A$ m) 853 732 1,649 1,574 2,197<br />

% of Sales 1.6% 1.3% 2.8% 2.6% 3.4%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 713 1,520 833 2,620 2,254<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 853 732 1,649 1,574 2,197<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 1,566 2,252 2,482 4,193 4,452<br />

Principal Repayments 11,591 12,831 8,983 10,781 11,327<br />

Interest Payments 332 396 407 461 428<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 11,923 13,227 9,390 11,242 11,756<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.1x 0.2x 0.3x 0.4x 0.4x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In A$ m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 833 1.5%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 9,991 17.7%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 10,824 19.2%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 3,417 6.1%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 14,241 25.3%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 56,340 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(A$ m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 33,015 36,390 36,390<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 4,750 6,467 6,386<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

0.4x<br />

9.5x<br />

0.3x<br />

0.3x<br />

9.0x<br />

0.2x<br />

8.5x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.1x<br />

8.0x<br />

0.1x<br />

7.5x<br />

0.0x<br />

7.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

0.4x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.3x<br />

0.3x<br />

0.3x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.1x<br />

0.1x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.1x<br />

2011A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EI406382 Corp At Maturity Senior Unsecured US$ 750.0 750.0 99.88 22-Sep-2010 22-Sep-2020 4.00% 2<br />

EI635911 Corp Callable Senior Unsecured US$ 550.0 550.0 99.74 12-Apr-2011 12-Apr-2021 4.55% 2<br />

EI404431 Corp At Maturity Senior Unsecured US$ 500.0 500.0 99.88 22-Sep-2010 22-Sep-2015 4.55% 2<br />

374 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (A$)<br />

12.6%<br />

87.4%<br />

15.1% 14.9%<br />

84.9% 85.1%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

36<br />

31<br />

26<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

21<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Woolworths Ltd.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (A$ m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 52,609 55,130 57,990 60,990 64,214<br />

Operating Expenses (48,843) (51,234) (53,846) (56,570) (59,636)<br />

EBITDA 3,902 4,035 4,291 4,573 4,739<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (858) (896) (908) (940) (950)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 3,044 3,139 3,383 3,633 3,789<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (333) (381) (367) (405) (381)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 297 321 290 314 332<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 2,993 3,068 3,306 3,542 3,740<br />

Taxes on Profit (869) (885) (952) (1,023) (1,082)<br />

Minority Interests (16) (1) (12) (13) (13)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 17 (366) 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 2,124 1,817 2,342 2,507 2,644<br />

Balance Sheet (A$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 8,620 9,589 10,539 11,429 11,773<br />

Long-term Investments 114 235 235 235 235<br />

Associates 2 3 3 3 3<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 5,237 5,282 5,280 5,278 5,277<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 14,502 15,779 16,729 17,618 17,961<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 4,807 4,969 5,219 5,420 5,742<br />

Total Current Assets 6,327 5,802 7,839 7,674 7,604<br />

Total Assets 20,828 21,581 24,568 25,292 25,566<br />

Shareholders' Equity 7,593 8,188 8,772 9,215 9,667<br />

Total Equity 7,846 8,446 9,032 9,478 9,932<br />

Long Term Debt 3,374 4,695 4,456 3,984 3,278<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 4,960 6,369 6,135 5,669 4,970<br />

Total Current Liabilities 8,022 6,766 9,400 10,144 10,663<br />

Total Liabilities 12,983 13,135 15,535 15,813 15,633<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 20,828 21,581 24,568 25,292 25,566<br />

Cash Flow Statement (A$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 2,993 3,068 3,306 3,542 3,740<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 858 896 908 940 950<br />

Tax Paid (842) (941) (936) (1,005) (1,066)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 40 (197) 431 158 124<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 2,991 2,874 3,649 3,574 3,697<br />

Capital Expenditure (2,139) (2,142) (2,000) (2,000) (1,500)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (50) 54 180 209 235<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (2,177) (2,080) (1,812) (1,784) (1,258)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 1,758 (469) 1,717 (81) (627)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net (641) 121 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (1,273) (1,333) (1,768) (2,074) (2,204)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (1) (1,469) (50) (2,155) (2,831)<br />

Change in Cash 813 (676) 1,786 (365) (392)<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 7.4% 7.3% 7.4% 7.5% 7.4%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 5.8% 5.7% 5.8% 6.0% 5.9%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 4.0% 3.3% 4.0% 4.1% 4.1%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 28.0% 23.0% 27.6% 27.9% 28.0%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 15.6% 14.9% 14.8% 14.8% 15.1%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 18.0% 16.9% 17.1% 17.6% 17.7%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 61.8% 56.2% 71.6% 67.4% 58.0%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 42.4% 46.4% 42.6% 43.6% 39.2%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 259.3% 268.7% 272.1% 277.2% 269.3%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.2x 0.2x 0.3x 0.3x 0.3x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 9.2x 7.9x 8.3x 7.9x 8.8x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 18.9% 12.3% 27.9% 22.2% 17.5%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 78.9% 85.8% 83.4% 75.7% 71.3%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 32.3% 31.1% 40.5% 35.4% 29.3%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

375 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings) Ltd. (YZJ SP)<br />

Sector: Industrials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Capital Goods<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.5x<br />

Country: Singapore<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 21.5%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 3.0x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings) Ltd is the fourth largest shipbuilder in China, with shipbuilding bases<br />

across the Yangtze River. It produces a broad range of commercial vessels, containerships, bulk carriers<br />

and multi-purpose cargo vessels. The group’s capacity stands at 2.306 million DWT (dead weight tonne)<br />

as on 31st December 2010. Currently, it operates 3 yards via its subsidiaries, Jiangsu Yangzijiang<br />

Shipbuilding Co., Ltd. (“JYS” or the “Old Yard”), Jiangsu New Yangzi Shipbuilding Co., Ltd. (“JNYS” or<br />

the “New Yangzi”) and Jiangsu Yangzi Changbo Shipbuilding Co., Ltd. (the “Changbo Yard”).<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (RMB m) 11,960 14,217 10,753 13,592 11,882<br />

Gross Debt (RMB m) 1,227 8,491 3,447 3,447 3,447<br />

Interest Expense (RMB m) (21) (138) (149) (86) (86)<br />

EBIT (RMB m) 3,322 4,468 3,706 6,564 3,527<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 12.2% 61.9% 21.5% 16.7% 15.4%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 115.0% 133.0% 158.7% 153.9% 212.3%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.3x 1.0x 1.6x 0.5x 0.9x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 3.1x 3.7x 0.5x 5.1x 2.7x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 158.9x 32.5x 24.8x 76.2x 40.9x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (RMB m) 13,558 15,706 14,279 24,241 13,264<br />

% Change (YoY) 27.6% 15.8% (9.1%) 69.8% (45.3%)<br />

EBITDA (RMB m) 3,491 4,715 3,787 6,672 3,651<br />

% of Sales 25.7% 30.0% 26.5% 27.5% 27.5%<br />

Net Income (RMB m) 2,955 3,977 3,307 5,543 3,032<br />

% of Sales 21.8% 25.3% 23.2% 22.9% 22.9%<br />

Free Cash Flow (RMB m) 546 (6,079) 4,462 3,958 (125)<br />

% of Sales 4.0% (38.7%) 31.3% 16.3% (0.9%)<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 8,501 11,960 14,217 10,753 13,592<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 546 (6,079) 4,462 3,958 (125)<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 9,047 5,881 18,679 14,712 13,467<br />

Principal Repayments 907 906 6,044 1,000 1,000<br />

Interest Payments 21 138 149 86 86<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 928 1,044 6,193 1,086 1,086<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 9.7x 5.6x 3.0x 13.5x 12.4x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In RMB m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 14,217 149.6%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 10,647 112.1%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 24,864 261.7%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 24,864 261.7%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 9,500 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(RMB m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 16,611 18,395 18,999<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 8,491 3,447 3,447<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

16.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EI905801 Corp At Maturity Unsecured RMB 1,400.0 1,400.0 100.00 20-Dec-2011 20-Dec-2014 6.05% 1<br />

376 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (S$)<br />

33.8%<br />

66.2%<br />

15.8% 15.4%<br />

84.2% 84.6%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

6.0x<br />

180.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

160.0x<br />

140.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

120.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

100.0x<br />

80.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

60.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

14.0x<br />

12.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.72<br />

1.52<br />

1.32<br />

1.12<br />

0.92<br />

9.7x<br />

5.6x<br />

3.0x<br />

13.5x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

0.72<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings) Ltd.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (RMB m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 13,558 15,706 14,279 24,241 13,264<br />

Operating Expenses (10,068) (10,991) (10,492) (17,569) (9,613)<br />

EBITDA 3,491 4,715 3,787 6,672 3,651<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (169) (247) (82) (108) (124)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 3,322 4,468 3,706 6,564 3,527<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 220 11 54 140 157<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 89 466 254 22 97<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits (2) 53 (9) (9) (8)<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 3,629 4,998 4,005 6,717 3,772<br />

Taxes on Profit (677) (988) (701) (1,179) (743)<br />

Minority Interests 3 (34) 3 6 3<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 2,955 3,977 3,307 5,543 3,032<br />

Balance Sheet (RMB m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 2,526 2,562 4,451 5,921 6,294<br />

Long-term Investments 3,424 3,915 4,159 4,891 6,087<br />

Associates 562 587 577 568 558<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 7,256 9,398 10,855 12,773 14,134<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 6,952 10,125 9,652 12,405 9,196<br />

Total Current Assets 18,912 24,341 20,405 25,997 21,078<br />

Total Assets 26,168 33,739 31,260 38,770 35,212<br />

Shareholders' Equity 9,928 12,974 15,263 19,967 21,593<br />

Total Equity 10,078 13,717 16,003 20,701 22,324<br />

Long Term Debt 320 2,447 2,447 2,447 2,447<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 749 2,963 2,963 2,963 2,963<br />

Total Current Liabilities 15,341 17,059 12,294 15,105 9,925<br />

Total Liabilities 16,090 20,022 15,257 18,069 12,888<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 26,168 33,739 31,260 38,770 35,212<br />

Cash Flow Statement (RMB m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 3,629 4,998 4,005 6,717 3,772<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 169 247 82 108 124<br />

Tax Paid (411) (661) (887) (1,092) (848)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (2,811) (10,585) 2,752 (262) (2,562)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 706 (5,581) 5,769 5,265 177<br />

Capital Expenditure (160) (498) (1,307) (1,307) (302)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (735) (739) 91 65 47<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (895) (1,175) (1,018) (1,022) 66<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 109 6,443 (5,044) 0 0<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 1,283 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (618) (910) (1,018) (839) (1,407)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 925 5,365 (6,062) (839) (1,407)<br />

Change in Cash 736 (1,391) (1,311) 3,404 (1,164)<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 25.7% 30.0% 26.5% 27.5% 27.5%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 24.5% 28.4% 26.0% 27.1% 26.6%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 21.8% 25.3% 23.2% 22.9% 22.9%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 36.4% 34.7% 23.4% 31.5% 14.6%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 15.3% 15.4% 12.0% 19.4% 10.2%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) - - 72.1% 107.3% 42.4%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 12.2% 61.9% 21.5% 16.7% 15.4%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - 38.9% 10.0% - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 286.8% 261.6% 230.2% 198.8% 178.0%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 3.1x 3.7x 0.5x 5.1x 2.7x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 158.9x 32.5x 24.8x 76.2x 40.9x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 29.6% 18.5% 15.0% 34.7% 41.1%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 123.3% 142.7% 166.0% 172.1% 212.4%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 115.0% 133.0% 158.7% 153.9% 212.3%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

377 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Yanzhou Coal Mining Company - H Share (1171 HK)<br />

Sector: Energy Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Energy<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.8x<br />

Country: China<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 77.1%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 2.6x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Yanzhou Coal, headquartered in Shandong province in Mainland China, is a leading integrated coalbased<br />

energy company. The company owns two large coal fields namely Yanzhou and Jinig East which<br />

operate through six coal mines. It derives a majority of its revenue from the sale of thermal coal, but is<br />

also involved in coal chemical production, mainly methanol, railway transportation and power and heat<br />

generation.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (RMB m) 9,339 17,689 13,483 16,892 12,984<br />

Gross Debt (RMB m) 23,022 34,461 37,658 37,230 32,535<br />

Interest Expense (RMB m) (603) (839) (1,064) (1,086) (1,011)<br />

EBIT (RMB m) 9,849 11,825 8,758 11,676 12,576<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 61.5% 79.5% 77.1% 68.2% 53.4%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 223.4% 83.6% 80.2% 80.4% 76.0%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 2.0x 2.2x 3.4x 2.7x 2.3x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 5.0x 1.9x 1.8x 1.7x 1.4x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 16.3x 14.1x 8.2x 10.8x 12.4x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (RMB m) 33,944 47,066 53,232 60,520 65,047<br />

% Change (YoY) 64.2% 38.7% 13.1% 13.7% 7.5%<br />

EBITDA (RMB m) 11,312 13,224 10,719 13,798 14,934<br />

% of Sales 33.3% 28.1% 20.1% 22.8% 23.0%<br />

Net Income (RMB m) 9,281 8,928 8,149 8,521 9,278<br />

% of Sales 27.3% 19.0% 15.3% 14.1% 14.3%<br />

Free Cash Flow (RMB m) 1,824 9,358 (4,902) 6,429 3,603<br />

% of Sales 5.4% 19.9% (9.2%) 10.6% 5.5%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 11,739 9,339 17,689 13,483 16,892<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 1,824 9,358 (4,902) 6,429 3,603<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 13,563 18,697 12,787 19,912 20,495<br />

Principal Repayments 1,240 4,367 3,803 5,428 7,196<br />

Interest Payments 603 839 1,064 1,086 1,011<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 1,843 5,206 4,867 6,514 8,207<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 7.4x 3.6x 2.6x 3.1x 2.5x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In RMB m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 17,689 48.1%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 28,099 76.4%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 45,788 124.5%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 45,788 124.5%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 36,764 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Issue<br />

Size(m)<br />

378 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

33.6%<br />

66.4%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

40.2% 40.0%<br />

59.8% 60.0%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(RMB m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 68,233 55,919 55,919<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 34,461 37,658 37,230<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

6.0x<br />

18.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

16.0x<br />

14.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

12.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

8.0x<br />

7.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

7.4x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

3.6x<br />

2.6x<br />

3.1x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

23.77<br />

18.77<br />

13.77<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

8.77<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Yanzhou Coal Mining Company - H Share<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (RMB m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 33,944 47,066 53,232 60,520 65,047<br />

Operating Expenses (22,632) (33,842) (42,513) (46,722) (50,113)<br />

EBITDA 11,312 13,224 10,719 13,798 14,934<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (1,463) (1,399) (1,961) (2,122) (2,358)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 9,849 11,825 8,758 11,676 12,576<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (416) (482) (648) (696) (628)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 2,921 718 2,037 4 4<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 9 69 17 17 17<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 12,477 12,521 10,499 11,395 12,408<br />

Taxes on Profit (3,171) (3,545) (2,325) (2,849) (3,102)<br />

Minority Interests (25) (48) (25) (26) (28)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 9,281 8,928 8,149 8,521 9,278<br />

Balance Sheet (RMB m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 18,944 21,447 31,030 38,169 42,800<br />

Long-term Investments 224 373 373 373 373<br />

Associates 1,076 1,703 1,720 1,737 1,754<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 20,830 28,072 27,580 27,088 26,596<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 48,475 66,720 75,264 80,420 82,998<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 14,942 12,743 17,081 14,237 18,052<br />

Total Current Assets 24,281 30,431 30,563 31,129 31,036<br />

Total Assets 72,756 97,152 105,827 111,549 114,034<br />

Shareholders' Equity 37,332 42,634 48,135 53,887 60,149<br />

Total Equity 37,438 43,325 48,849 54,624 60,912<br />

Long Term Debt 22,401 14,869 17,566 16,639 11,443<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 25,184 19,105 21,685 20,786 15,617<br />

Total Current Liabilities 10,134 34,721 35,294 36,139 37,505<br />

Total Liabilities 35,317 53,827 56,979 56,925 53,122<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 72,756 97,152 105,827 111,549 114,034<br />

Cash Flow Statement (RMB m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 12,477 12,521 10,499 11,395 12,408<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 1,463 1,399 1,961 2,122 2,358<br />

Tax Paid (2,039) (2,156) (1,976) (2,421) (2,637)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (5,647) 3,821 (4,731) 2,791 (3,388)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 5,400 17,977 6,908 15,129 10,103<br />

Capital Expenditure (3,576) (8,620) (11,810) (8,700) (6,500)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 1,728 (17,247) 149 179 202<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (5,884) (25,611) (11,661) (8,521) (6,298)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (129) 12,345 3,197 (428) (4,696)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (1,231) (2,904) (2,650) (2,771) (3,017)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (1,361) 9,441 547 (3,199) (7,713)<br />

Change in Cash (1,845) 1,807 (4,206) 3,409 (3,908)<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 33.3% 28.1% 20.1% 22.8% 23.0%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 29.0% 25.1% 16.5% 19.3% 19.3%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 27.3% 19.0% 15.3% 14.1% 14.3%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 27.9% 22.3% 18.0% 16.7% 16.3%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 14.8% 14.3% 9.0% 11.1% 11.5%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 15.8% 14.8% 9.9% 11.5% 11.8%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 61.5% 79.5% 77.1% 68.2% 53.4%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 43.4% 60.7% 69.0% 54.7% 47.8%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 203.3% 212.5% 223.6% 213.1% 197.8%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 5.0x 1.9x 1.8x 1.7x 1.4x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 16.3x 14.1x 8.2x 10.8x 12.4x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 66.8% 23.5% 11.2% 20.3% 9.2%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 239.6% 87.6% 86.6% 86.1% 82.8%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 223.4% 83.6% 80.2% 80.4% 76.0%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

379 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


YTL Corporation Bhd (YTL MK)<br />

Sector: Utilities Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Utilities<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.3x<br />

Country: Malaysia<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 168.1%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.2x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

YTL Corporation Berhad is an investment holding and management company. The principal activities of<br />

the Company and its subsidiaries are integrated infrastructure development comprising construction<br />

contracting, power generation, property development, manufacturing of industrial products & supplies,<br />

hotel development & management, incubating & advisory services for Internet businesses, supply of<br />

water and the treatment & disposal of waste water.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 30 Jun) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (RM '000) 12,794,433 13,925,256 15,504,941 15,626,245 15,980,150<br />

Gross Debt (RM '000) 28,251,156 29,203,373 28,584,590 27,548,613 26,312,635<br />

Interest Expense (RM '000) 0 0 0 0 0<br />

EBIT (RM '000) 2,555,290 2,628,619 2,467,939 2,608,557 2,815,790<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 225.3% 203.1% 168.1% 147.9% 128.9%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 125.8% 124.6% 289.6% 285.8% 279.4%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 7.6x 7.2x 7.4x 6.8x 6.1x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.6x 0.2x 0.3x 0.8x 0.9x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 3.0x 3.2x 2.2x 2.4x 2.7x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (RM '000) 18,252,353 20,076,312 21,766,428 23,021,383 24,230,985<br />

% Change (YoY) 11.1% 10.0% 8.4% 5.8% 5.3%<br />

EBITDA (RM '000) 3,709,936 3,977,067 3,911,803 4,134,094 4,426,419<br />

% of Sales 20.3% 19.8% 18.0% 18.0% 18.3%<br />

Net Income (RM '000) 1,034,569 1,181,123 1,266,965 1,379,175 1,522,883<br />

% of Sales 5.7% 5.9% 5.8% 6.0% 6.3%<br />

Free Cash Flow (RM '000) 2,069,534 1,423,041 1,601,927 1,757,908 2,253,396<br />

% of Sales 11.3% 7.1% 7.4% 7.6% 9.3%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 11,679,653 12,794,433 13,925,256 15,504,941 15,626,245<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2,069,534 1,423,041 1,601,927 1,757,908 2,253,396<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 13,749,187 14,217,474 15,527,183 17,262,849 17,879,641<br />

Principal Repayments 4,301,093 16,279,458 11,618,783 3,035,977 3,235,977<br />

Interest Payments 846,034 813,845 1,128,559 1,095,464 1,050,025<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 5,147,127 17,093,303 12,747,342 4,131,441 4,286,002<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 2.7x 0.8x 1.2x 4.2x 4.2x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In RM '000)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 13,925,256 46.2%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 11,171,579 37.0%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 25,096,835 83.2%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 90,000 0.3%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 25,186,835 83.5%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 30,168,473 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

58.3% 60.0% 59.1%<br />

41.7% 40.0% 40.9%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(RM '000) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 20,853,265 19,049,517 19,049,517<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 29,203,373 28,584,590 27,548,613<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

0.9x<br />

3.5x<br />

0.8x<br />

3.0x<br />

0.7x<br />

0.6x<br />

2.5x<br />

0.5x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.4x<br />

1.5x<br />

0.3x<br />

0.2x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.1x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

4.5x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.5x<br />

4.2x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.5x<br />

2.0x<br />

2.7x<br />

1.5x<br />

1.2x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.8x<br />

2011A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EI186487 Corp Convertible/Puttable Company Guarantee US$ 400.0 400.0 100.00 18-Mar-2010 18-Mar-2015 1.88% 2<br />

EF174274 Corp Convertible Senior Unsecured RM 483.2 479.0 100.00 10-Nov-2005 10-Nov-2015 5.00% 2<br />

380 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (RM)<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

2.53<br />

2.33<br />

2.13<br />

1.93<br />

1.73<br />

1.53<br />

1.33<br />

1.13<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

YTL Corporation Bhd


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (RM '000) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 18,252,353 20,076,312 21,766,428 23,021,383 24,230,985<br />

Operating Expenses (14,542,417) (16,099,245) (17,854,626 (18,887,28 (19,804,566)<br />

EBITDA 3,709,936 3,977,067 3,911,803 4,134,094 4,426,419<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (1,154,646) (1,348,448) (1,443,864) (1,525,537) (1,610,629)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 2,555,290 2,628,619 2,467,939 2,608,557 2,815,790<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (856,454) (796,999) (894,810) (848,205) (798,991)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 236,986 232,204 557,163 588,343 618,280<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 404,046 379,939 429,850 441,386 453,231<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 2,351,949 2,450,154 2,560,142 2,790,081 3,088,310<br />

Taxes on Profit (516,029) (476,064) (500,035) (547,520) (612,077)<br />

Minority Interests (801,351) (792,967) (793,141) (863,386) (953,349)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 1,034,569 1,181,123 1,266,965 1,379,175 1,522,883<br />

Balance Sheet (RM '000)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 19,084,387 19,607,732 19,709,772 19,795,285 19,837,466<br />

Long-term Investments 696,606 168,010 168,010 168,010 168,010<br />

Associates 2,854,405 3,225,964 3,311,934 3,400,211 3,490,857<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 4,569,986 4,717,126 4,717,126 4,717,126 4,717,126<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 29,070,714 30,839,134 31,208,440 31,498,380 31,705,597<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 6,401,038 6,858,923 6,985,959 7,110,479 7,205,463<br />

Total Current Assets 19,195,471 20,784,179 22,490,900 22,736,724 23,185,613<br />

Total Assets 48,266,185 51,623,313 53,699,340 54,235,104 54,891,210<br />

Shareholders' Equity 10,365,853 12,178,674 14,443,336 15,660,972 17,008,010<br />

Total Equity 12,536,935 14,379,256 17,008,762 18,623,557 20,409,136<br />

Long Term Debt 17,810,620 17,584,590 25,548,613 24,312,635 22,876,658<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 21,131,117 21,311,248 29,265,190 28,019,495 26,574,150<br />

Total Current Liabilities 14,598,133 15,932,809 7,425,387 7,592,052 7,907,924<br />

Total Liabilities 35,729,250 37,244,057 36,690,578 35,611,547 34,482,075<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 48,266,185 51,623,313 53,699,340 54,235,104 54,891,210<br />

Cash Flow Statement (RM '000)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 2,351,949 2,450,154 2,560,142 2,790,081 3,088,310<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 1,154,646 1,348,448 1,443,864 1,525,537 1,610,629<br />

Tax Paid (400,483) (580,032) (541,772) (545,221) (585,335)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 508,944 (92,428) (18,012) (168,017) (10,539)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 3,567,092 2,932,034 3,329,127 3,485,108 3,980,596<br />

Capital Expenditure (1,497,558) (1,508,993) (1,727,200) (1,727,200) (1,727,200)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 788 61,662 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (1,810,553) (1,328,975) (1,700,060) (1,700,060) (1,700,060)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) (290,563) 333,441 (618,783) (1,035,977) (1,235,977)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net (9,565) (355,565) 47,903 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (134,525) (375,856) 0 (161,538) (175,845)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (833,875) (657,174) (49,383) (1,663,744) (1,926,631)<br />

Change in Cash 922,664 945,885 1,579,685 121,304 353,905<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 20.3% 19.8% 18.0% 18.0% 18.3%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 14.0% 13.1% 11.3% 11.3% 11.6%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 5.7% 5.9% 5.8% 6.0% 6.3%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 10.3% 10.5% 9.5% 9.2% 9.3%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 5.8% 5.7% 5.1% 5.3% 5.6%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 7.2% 7.3% 6.6% 6.9% 7.3%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 225.3% 203.1% 168.1% 147.9% 128.9%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 127.7% 110.2% 80.3% 67.1% 53.4%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 471.7% 443.1% 395.6% 358.5% 334.0%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.6x 0.2x 0.3x 0.8x 0.9x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 3.0x 3.2x 2.2x 2.4x 2.7x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 83.8% 83.8% 201.1% 198.3% 194.8%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 131.5% 130.4% 302.9% 299.5% 293.2%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 125.8% 124.6% 289.6% 285.8% 279.4%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

381 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd. - H Share (2899 HK)<br />

Sector: Materials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Materials<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 2.6x<br />

Country: China<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 36.6%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.9x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Zijin Mining Group Company Ltd. is engaged in the exploration, mining and refining of gold and nonferrous<br />

metals. The company is one of the largest and most efficient mine-produced gold producers in<br />

China. It commands a market share of 10% and 20% of China’s total mined and refined gold production,<br />

respectively. It has 275 exploration rights and 63 mining rights of which 43 exploration and 6 mining<br />

rights are outside China. The company’s primary exposure is to gold, with over 63% of its sales coming<br />

from sale of gold bullion and concentrates. Apart from gold Zijin also produces copper from its mines.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (RMB m) 5,040 6,444 3,812 4,924 5,180<br />

Gross Debt (RMB m) 6,956 9,323 12,874 14,971 15,754<br />

Interest Expense (RMB m) (313) (628) (724) (901) (1,003)<br />

EBIT (RMB m) 8,018 9,803 9,085 10,636 12,361<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 26.7% 30.9% 36.6% 36.5% 33.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 78.6% 65.8% 66.1% 62.9% 77.3%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.6x 0.8x 1.0x 1.1x 1.0x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.2x 0.8x 2.6x 2.7x 2.8x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 25.6x 15.6x 12.5x 11.8x 12.3x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (RMB m) 28,540 39,764 44,566 48,719 54,031<br />

% Change (YoY) 41.2% 39.3% 12.1% 9.3% 10.9%<br />

EBITDA (RMB m) 9,010 10,823 10,734 12,711 14,856<br />

% of Sales 31.6% 27.2% 24.1% 26.1% 27.5%<br />

Net Income (RMB m) 4,828 5,713 5,531 6,320 7,348<br />

% of Sales 16.9% 14.4% 12.4% 13.0% 13.6%<br />

Free Cash Flow (RMB m) 968 (1,086) (3,431) 1,289 1,891<br />

% of Sales 3.4% (2.7%) (7.7%) 2.6% 3.5%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 3,738 5,040 6,444 3,812 4,924<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 968 (1,086) (3,431) 1,289 1,891<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 4,707 3,953 3,013 5,102 6,815<br />

Principal Repayments 5,723 9,475 2,568 2,815 3,223<br />

Interest Payments 313 628 724 901 1,003<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 6,035 10,103 3,292 3,716 4,225<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.8x 0.4x 0.9x 1.4x 1.6x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In RMB m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 6,444 31.8%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 8,469 41.7%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 14,913 73.5%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 14,913 73.5%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 20,292 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

12.3% 16.2% 18.4%<br />

87.7% 83.8% 81.6%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(RMB m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 66,379 66,537 66,537<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 9,323 12,874 14,971<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

1.6x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EI718590 Corp At Maturity Senior Unsecured US$ 480.0 480.0 99.28 30-Jun-2011 30-Jun-2016 4.25% 2<br />

382 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

3.0x<br />

2.5x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

30.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

1.4x<br />

1.2x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.8x<br />

0.6x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.2x<br />

4.45<br />

3.95<br />

3.45<br />

2.95<br />

2.45<br />

0.8x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.9x<br />

1.4x<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

1.95<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd. - H Share


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (RMB m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 28,540 39,764 44,566 48,719 54,031<br />

Operating Expenses (19,529) (28,941) (33,833) (36,008) (39,175)<br />

EBITDA 9,010 10,823 10,734 12,711 14,856<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (992) (1,020) (1,649) (2,075) (2,494)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 8,018 9,803 9,085 10,636 12,361<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (191) (366) (612) (812) (892)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) (512) (480) 119 152 168<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 143 222 224 235 237<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 7,332 9,276 8,780 10,031 11,663<br />

Taxes on Profit (1,576) (2,366) (2,195) (2,508) (2,916)<br />

Minority Interests (928) (1,198) (1,054) (1,204) (1,400)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 4,828 5,713 5,531 6,320 7,348<br />

Balance Sheet (RMB m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 8,445 10,145 13,172 15,483 17,765<br />

Long-term Investments 4,786 4,193 4,817 5,176 5,441<br />

Associates 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 5,676 7,477 9,115 11,403 12,758<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 27,341 34,388 43,679 50,671 56,468<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 6,021 11,488 9,795 12,834 11,983<br />

Total Current Assets 11,061 17,932 13,607 17,758 17,163<br />

Total Assets 38,401 52,320 57,286 68,428 73,631<br />

Shareholders' Equity 21,832 25,009 29,113 33,822 39,298<br />

Total Equity 26,029 30,133 35,185 40,977 47,714<br />

Long Term Debt 2,460 5,508 9,059 11,156 11,939<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 2,736 5,823 9,407 11,530 12,335<br />

Total Current Liabilities 9,636 16,365 12,694 15,921 13,582<br />

Total Liabilities 12,373 22,188 22,101 27,451 25,917<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 38,401 52,320 57,286 68,428 73,631<br />

Cash Flow Statement (RMB m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 7,332 9,276 8,780 10,031 11,663<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 992 1,020 1,649 2,075 2,494<br />

Tax Paid (1,412) (1,848) (2,928) (2,613) (2,840)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (1,107) (1,864) (1,370) 48 (1,929)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 5,920 6,390 7,009 10,415 10,523<br />

Capital Expenditure (4,952) (7,476) (10,440) (9,126) (8,632)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (2,139) (2,491) (579) (456) (335)<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (6,292) (7,704) (10,848) (9,122) (8,358)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 3,000 5,546 3,432 2,185 777<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (2,185) (2,652) (1,559) (1,531) (1,751)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 1,777 3,796 2,496 1,089 (639)<br />

Change in Cash 1,405 2,482 (1,343) 2,382 1,526<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 31.6% 27.2% 24.1% 26.1% 27.5%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 28.1% 24.7% 20.4% 21.8% 22.9%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 16.9% 14.4% 12.4% 13.0% 13.6%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 24.1% 24.4% 20.4% 20.1% 20.1%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 23.9% 21.9% 16.8% 17.1% 17.6%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 28.0% 27.8% 19.8% 18.6% 18.6%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 26.7% 30.9% 36.6% 36.5% 33.0%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 8.9% 10.4% 26.4% 25.1% 22.6%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 170.1% 193.7% 202.5% 199.8% 194.3%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.2x 0.8x 2.6x 2.7x 2.8x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 25.6x 15.6x 12.5x 11.8x 12.3x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 48.3% 37.8% 28.2% 29.5% 36.5%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 114.8% 109.6% 107.2% 111.5% 126.4%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 78.6% 65.8% 66.1% 62.9% 77.3%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

383 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


ZTE Corporation - H Share (763 HK)<br />

Sector: Information Technology Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Technology Hardware & Equipment Debt Service Cover (x) 0.0x<br />

Country: China<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 95.3%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.8x<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

ZTE is a telecommunication equipments company, serves global telecom operators for their<br />

infrastructure requirement in wireless infrastructure, broadband network and wireline equipments such<br />

as routers and switches. ZTE also manufactures and sells mobile handsets and data cards to telecom<br />

operators as well as to end customers. The company is headquartered in China and listed in China and<br />

Hong Kong. The company has its major operations in China and also operates in the Rest of Asia,<br />

Africa, Europe, the Americas and Oceania.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (RMB m) 15,383 21,559 16,830 5,723 14,571<br />

Gross Debt (RMB m) 21,366 30,647 24,394 21,707 29,688<br />

Interest Expense (RMB m) (623) (1,116) (1,123) (1,029) (1,184)<br />

EBIT (RMB m) 2,405 274 (837) 396 1,818<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 85.6% 116.6% 95.3% 80.3% 101.9%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 110.5% 109.2% 113.9% 96.8% 101.3%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 5.8x 15.5x 37.4x 9.8x 6.2x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.2x 0.1x 0.0x 0.4x 1.0x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 3.9x 0.2x - 0.4x 1.5x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (RMB m) 69,907 86,254 93,463 104,409 120,457<br />

% Change (YoY) 16.0% 23.4% 8.4% 11.7% 15.4%<br />

EBITDA (RMB m) 3,464 1,681 736 2,355 4,134<br />

% of Sales 5.0% 1.9% 0.8% 2.3% 3.4%<br />

Net Income (RMB m) 3,250 2,060 4 1,368 2,440<br />

% of Sales 4.6% 2.4% 0.0% 1.3% 2.0%<br />

Free Cash Flow (RMB m) (2,567) (7,596) 1,413 (7,598) 1,068<br />

% of Sales (3.7%) (8.8%) 1.5% (7.3%) 0.9%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 14,497 15,383 21,559 16,830 5,723<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (2,567) (7,596) 1,413 (7,598) 1,068<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 11,930 7,787 22,972 9,232 6,791<br />

Principal Repayments 11,568 21,518 11,876 4,507 2,484<br />

Interest Payments 623 1,116 1,123 1,029 1,184<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 12,191 22,633 13,000 5,536 3,668<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.0x 0.3x 1.8x 1.7x 1.9x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In RMB m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 21,559 51.1%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation (14,110) (33.5%)<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 7,449 17.7%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 7,449 17.7%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 42,170 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Capital Structure<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(RMB m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 53,979 31,444 34,686<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 30,647 24,394 21,707<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

2.0x<br />

1.8x<br />

1.6x<br />

1.4x<br />

1.8x<br />

1.7x<br />

1.2x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.8x<br />

0.6x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.3x<br />

2010A<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue Outstanding<br />

Size(m) Amount (m)<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EJ234559 Corp At Maturity Unsecured RMB 6,000.0 6,000.0 100.00 13-Jun-2012 13-Jun-2015 4.20% 1<br />

EH183163 Corp At Maturity Bank Guarantee RMB 4,000.0 4,000.0 100.00 30-Jan-2008 30-Jan-2013 0.80% 1<br />

384 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

36.2%<br />

63.8%<br />

43.7%<br />

56.3%<br />

38.5%<br />

61.5%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

0.4x<br />

4.5x<br />

0.4x<br />

4.0x<br />

0.3x<br />

3.5x<br />

0.3x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.2x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.5x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

0.1x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.1x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Interest Cover (RHS) Debt Service Cover (LHS)<br />

27.89<br />

22.89<br />

17.89<br />

12.89<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

7.89<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd. - H Share


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (RMB m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 69,907 86,254 93,463 104,409 120,457<br />

Operating Expenses (66,443) (84,574) (92,727) (102,054) (116,323)<br />

EBITDA 3,464 1,681 736 2,355 4,134<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (1,059) (1,407) (1,574) (1,960) (2,316)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 2,405 274 (837) 396 1,818<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (628) (1,091) (1,049) (882) (1,066)<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 2,955 4,217 2,175 2,284 2,498<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 44 71 (23) 29 31<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 4,360 2,635 266 1,827 3,281<br />

Taxes on Profit (884) (392) (261) (307) (570)<br />

Minority Interests (226) (183) (1) (152) (271)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 3,250 2,060 4 1,368 2,440<br />

Balance Sheet (RMB m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 6,574 7,066 8,973 10,610 12,391<br />

Long-term Investments 1,433 1,770 1,770 1,770 1,770<br />

Associates 918 514 495 519 544<br />

Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets (Net) 1,583 2,240 2,877 3,454 3,979<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 18,608 20,872 22,844 26,441 29,249<br />

Total Non-Cash Current Assets 51,518 65,353 63,298 73,541 79,680<br />

Total Current Assets 66,901 86,912 80,127 79,263 94,251<br />

Total Assets 85,509 107,784 102,971 105,705 123,501<br />

Shareholders' Equity 23,094 24,232 23,549 24,916 26,900<br />

Total Equity 24,962 26,289 25,607 27,039 29,140<br />

Long Term Debt 10,448 14,981 20,336 14,815 21,210<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 10,976 15,605 20,960 15,439 21,834<br />

Total Current Liabilities 49,571 65,891 56,405 63,227 72,527<br />

Total Liabilities 60,547 81,495 77,365 78,666 94,361<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 85,509 107,784 102,971 105,705 123,501<br />

Cash Flow Statement (RMB m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 4,360 2,635 266 1,827 3,281<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 1,059 1,407 1,574 1,960 2,316<br />

Tax Paid (1,142) (960) (723) (459) (530)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (3,453) (6,118) 4,787 (6,454) 1,388<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 228 (3,655) 5,333 (3,228) 5,888<br />

Capital Expenditure (2,795) (3,940) (3,920) (4,370) (4,820)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (131) 867 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (3,649) (3,610) (3,914) (4,354) (4,804)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 378 13,428 (5,876) (4,507) 7,516<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 3,197 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 4,288 13,435 (6,149) (3,525) 7,765<br />

Change in Cash 867 6,169 (4,729) (11,107) 8,849<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 5.0% 1.9% 0.8% 2.3% 3.4%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 3.4% 0.3% (0.9%) 0.4% 1.5%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 4.6% 2.4% 0.0% 1.3% 2.0%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 16.3% 8.7% 0.0% 5.6% 9.4%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 3.2% 0.6% (0.6%) 0.5% 1.7%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 7.6% 0.7% 0.0% 0.9% 3.6%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 85.6% 116.6% 95.3% 80.3% 101.9%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 25.9% 38.0% 33.0% 62.4% 55.0%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 388.2% 408.4% 441.1% 430.6% 442.3%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.2x 0.1x 0.0x 0.4x 1.0x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 3.9x 0.2x - 0.4x 1.5x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 30.1% 31.4% 28.2% 7.6% 18.9%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 135.0% 131.9% 142.1% 125.4% 130.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 110.5% 109.2% 113.9% 96.8% 101.3%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

385 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Cheung Kong (Holdings) Limited (1 HK)<br />

Sector: Financials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Real Estate<br />

Country: Hong Kong<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Cheung Kong (Holdings) Limited (CKH) is one of the largest developers of residential, office, retail,<br />

industrial and hotel properties in Hong Kong. About one in seven private residences in Hong Kong have<br />

been developed by CKH. Apart from Hong Kong, it has property development projects in Mainland,<br />

Singapore and London. Other business segments of the group include Property Investment, Hotels and<br />

Property and Project Management.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Cash Equivalents (HK$ m) 25,405 20,114 11,661 16,160 13,107<br />

Gross Debt (HK$m) 37,154 45,917 38,020 47,671 54,087<br />

Interest Expense (HK$m) (301) (448) (462) (471) (560)<br />

EBIT (HK$m) 6,882 9,438 10,497 13,002 13,483<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 13.6% 14.6% 11.4% 13.5% 14.5%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 81.3% 65.9% 85.5% 113.9% 139.9%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 4.9x 4.2x 3.8x 3.2x 3.6x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.0x 0.6x 0.4x 0.8x 0.5x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 22.9x 21.1x 22.7x 27.6x 24.1x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (HK$ m) 23,983 32,971 34,208 38,598 37,132<br />

% Change (YoY) 35.5% 37.5% 3.8% 12.8% (3.8%)<br />

EBITDA (HK$ m) 7,280 9,838 10,974 13,543 14,089<br />

% of Sales 30.4% 29.8% 32.1% 35.1% 37.9%<br />

Net Income (HK$ m) 26,836 46,055 29,021 29,725 31,777<br />

% of Sales 111.9% 139.7% 84.8% 77.0% 85.6%<br />

Free Cash Flow (HK$ m) 8,524 (7,235) 1,800 (4,200) (8,415)<br />

% of Sales 35.5% (21.9%) 5.3% (10.9%) (22.7%)<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 13,350 25,405 20,114 11,661 16,160<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 8,524 (7,235) 1,800 (4,200) (8,415)<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 21,874 18,170 21,914 7,461 7,746<br />

Principal Repayments 7,025 16,249 27,897 15,349 23,584<br />

Interest Payments 301 448 462 471 560<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 7,326 16,697 28,359 15,820 24,143<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 3.0x 1.1x 0.8x 0.5x 0.3x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In HK$ m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 20,114 14.4%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation (20,543) (14.8%)<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation (429) (0.3%)<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments (429) (0.3%)<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 139,238 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.4x<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 11.4%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.8x<br />

Issue<br />

Size (m)<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(HK$ m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 214,014 275,624 282,109<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 45,917 38,020 47,671<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EI803394 Corp Perpetual/Callable Company Guarantee S$ 730.0 730.0 100.00 09-Sep-2011 N.A. 5.13% 2<br />

EJ230916 Corp At Maturity Company Guarantee US$ 500.0 500.0 100.00 20-Jul-2011 20-Jul-2018 1.89% 4<br />

EI737619 Corp At Maturity Company Guarantee S$ 320.0 320.0 100.00 15-Jun-2012 15-Jun-2015 3.41% 2<br />

386 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

17.7%<br />

82.3%<br />

12.1% 14.5%<br />

87.9% 85.5%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

30.0x<br />

25.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

1.2x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.8x<br />

0.6x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Debt Service Cover (RHS) Interest Cover (LHS)<br />

3.5x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.5x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

1.1x<br />

0.8x<br />

0.5x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

143<br />

133<br />

123<br />

113<br />

103<br />

93<br />

83<br />

73<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Cheung Kong (Holdings) Limited


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (HK$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 23,983 32,971 34,208 38,598 37,132<br />

Operating Expenses (16,703) (23,133) (23,234) (25,054) (23,043)<br />

EBITDA 7,280 9,838 10,974 13,543 14,089<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (398) (400) (477) (541) (605)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 6,882 9,438 10,497 13,002 13,483<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (60) (97) (127) (123) (161)<br />

Fair Value Changes 1,737 4,010 2,348 0 0<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 1,146 1,292 312 328 345<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 18,496 33,449 18,106 19,058 20,751<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 28,201 48,092 31,136 32,265 34,418<br />

Taxes on Profit (1,042) (1,833) (1,763) (2,179) (2,255)<br />

Minority Interests (323) (204) (352) (361) (386)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 26,836 46,055 29,021 29,725 31,777<br />

Balance Sheet (HK$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 10,399 11,233 11,754 12,210 12,600<br />

Investment Properties 21,170 25,180 27,713 27,901 28,125<br />

Long-term Investments 9,282 8,327 8,743 9,181 9,640<br />

Associates 195,866 236,260 250,346 264,952 280,554<br />

Other Non-Current Assets 357 180 225 281 352<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 237,074 281,180 298,781 314,524 331,271<br />

Total Current Assets 93,877 92,006 88,044 99,499 103,624<br />

Total Assets 330,951 373,186 386,826 414,023 434,895<br />

Shareholders' Equity 269,637 306,425 327,844 346,555 366,296<br />

Total Equity 273,458 314,285 334,292 353,022 372,793<br />

Long Term Debt 22,027 23,020 33,921 42,837 49,254<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 22,788 23,870 34,771 43,687 50,104<br />

Total Current Liabilities 34,705 35,031 17,762 17,314 11,998<br />

Total Liabilities 57,493 58,901 52,533 61,002 62,101<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 330,951 373,186 386,826 414,023 434,895<br />

Cash Flow Statement (HK$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 28,201 48,092 31,136 32,265 34,418<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 398 400 477 541 605<br />

Tax Paid (1,376) (865) (2,359) (2,233) (2,248)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 5,752 (10,730) (2,387) (8,109) (12,528)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 8,668 (5,976) 2,800 (3,200) (7,415)<br />

Capital Expenditure (144) (1,259) (1,000) (1,000) (1,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (1,216) (13,113) (312) (328) (344)<br />

Cash Flow from Investing 3,078 (12,010) (1,310) (1,325) (1,340)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 2,449 13,664 (7,897) 9,651 6,416<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (6,403) (7,179) (7,760) (11,176) (12,210)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 1,978 12,733 (9,965) 9,000 5,675<br />

Change in Cash 13,724 (5,253) (8,475) 4,475 (3,080)<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 30.4% 29.8% 32.1% 35.1% 37.9%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 28.7% 28.6% 30.7% 33.7% 36.3%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 111.9% 139.7% 84.8% 77.0% 85.6%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 10.5% 16.0% 9.2% 8.8% 8.9%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 2.2% 2.8% 2.8% 3.3% 3.2%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 7.3% 8.8% 8.8% 10.2% 9.6%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 13.6% 14.6% 11.4% 13.5% 14.5%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 4.4% 8.3% 8.0% 9.0% 11.1%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 122.5% 122.2% 119.8% 118.7% 119.1%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.0x 0.6x 0.4x 0.8x 0.5x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 22.9x 21.1x 22.7x 27.6x 24.1x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 72.5% 56.8% 64.3% 91.8% 106.8%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 270.5% 262.6% 495.7% 574.7% 863.7%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 81.3% 65.9% 85.5% 113.9% 139.9%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

387 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


China Overseas Land and Investment Ltd. (688 HK)<br />

Sector: Financials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Real Estate<br />

Country: Hong Kong<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd. (COLI, the Group) was incorporated in Hong Kong in 1979, and<br />

is principally engaged in property development and investment, real estate agency and management,<br />

and treasury operations. The property development segment is the revenue generator for the company<br />

and accounts for 97% of its total revenue. COLI’s property development, property investment and other<br />

activities are carried out in Hong Kong, Macau and other regions in the People’s Republic of China.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Cash Equivalents (HK$ m) 32,023 19,179 29,135 34,079 63,536<br />

Gross Debt (HK$m) 44,538 42,624 42,806 43,080 41,754<br />

Interest Expense (HK$m) (1,117) (1,361) (434) (443) (437)<br />

EBIT (HK$m) 15,867 18,775 25,242 27,859 32,230<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 76.9% 60.4% 51.2% 44.2% 36.7%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 70.8% 48.8% 57.2% 65.9% 78.1%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 2.1x 2.3x 1.7x 1.5x 1.3x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.3x 1.3x 1.9x 2.0x 2.0x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 14.2x 13.8x 58.1x 62.8x 73.7x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (HK$ m) 44,313 48,583 60,816 67,944 79,371<br />

% Change (YoY) 18.7% 9.6% 25.2% 11.7% 16.8%<br />

EBITDA (HK$ m) 15,921 18,819 25,315 27,929 32,298<br />

% of Sales 35.9% 38.7% 41.6% 41.1% 40.7%<br />

Net Income (HK$ m) 12,373 15,025 15,661 17,215 19,899<br />

% of Sales 27.9% 30.9% 25.8% 25.3% 25.1%<br />

Free Cash Flow (HK$ m) (4,257) (9,563) 14,585 8,853 35,333<br />

% of Sales (9.6%) (19.7%) 24.0% 13.0% 44.5%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 23,863 32,023 19,179 29,135 34,079<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (4,257) (9,563) 14,585 8,853 35,333<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 19,605 22,461 33,764 37,988 69,412<br />

Principal Repayments 7,134 8,694 7,482 7,726 9,326<br />

Interest Payments 1,117 1,361 434 443 437<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 8,251 10,055 7,916 8,170 9,763<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 2.4x 2.2x 4.3x 4.6x 7.1x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In HK$ m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 19,179 43.1%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 66,508 149.6%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 85,687 192.7%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 4,096 9.2%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 89,783 201.9%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 44,467 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.9x<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 51.2%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 4.3x<br />

Issue<br />

Size (m)<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(HK$ m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 106,079 188,785 196,140<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 42,624 42,806 43,080<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EI456726 Corp Callable Company Guarantee US$ 1,000.0 1,000.0 100.00 04-Nov-2010 10-Nov-2020 5.50% 2<br />

EJ019776 Corp At Maturity Company Guarantee US$ 750.0 750.0 99.80 09-Feb-2012 15-Feb-2017 4.88% 2<br />

EJ436530 Corp At Maturity Company Guarantee US$ 700.0 700.0 N.A. 07-Nov-2012 15-Nov-2022 3.95% 2<br />

388 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

28.7%<br />

71.3%<br />

18.5% 18.0%<br />

81.5% 82.0%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

70.0x<br />

60.0x<br />

50.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

2.5x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Debt Service Cover (RHS) Interest Cover (LHS)<br />

5.0x<br />

4.5x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.5x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.5x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.0x<br />

26<br />

21<br />

16<br />

2.4x 2.2x<br />

4.3x<br />

4.6x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

11<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

China Overseas Land and Investment Ltd.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (HK$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 44,313 48,583 60,816 67,944 79,371<br />

Operating Expenses (28,392) (29,764) (35,502) (40,015) (47,073)<br />

EBITDA 15,921 18,819 25,315 27,929 32,298<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (54) (44) (73) (70) (68)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 15,867 18,775 25,242 27,859 32,230<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) 144 (24) 73 160 359<br />

Fair Value Changes 1,989 3,020 0 0 0<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 401 1,026 860 809 924<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 335 922 1,221 1,310 1,406<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 20,567 23,765 27,395 30,138 34,919<br />

Taxes on Profit (7,898) (8,646) (11,412) (12,569) (14,612)<br />

Minority Interests (296) (94) (322) (354) (409)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 12,373 15,025 15,661 17,215 19,899<br />

Balance Sheet (HK$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 319 338 274 215 160<br />

Investment Properties 14,054 17,765 25,191 28,391 31,591<br />

Long-term Investments 47 40 42 45 48<br />

Associates 11,534 16,009 17,141 18,357 19,663<br />

Other Non-Current Assets 10,399 13,839 15,001 16,267 17,682<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 36,353 47,991 57,650 63,275 69,144<br />

Total Current Assets 125,895 127,984 140,644 152,252 189,899<br />

Total Assets 162,248 175,975 198,294 215,528 259,043<br />

Shareholders' Equity 54,735 70,312 83,154 96,963 113,043<br />

Total Equity 57,942 70,585 83,579 97,537 113,776<br />

Long Term Debt 34,324 32,803 34,742 35,016 33,689<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 42,908 37,462 39,400 39,674 38,348<br />

Total Current Liabilities 61,398 67,929 75,315 78,317 106,919<br />

Total Liabilities 104,306 105,391 114,714 117,991 145,267<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 162,248 175,975 198,294 215,528 259,043<br />

Cash Flow Statement (HK$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 20,567 23,765 27,395 30,138 34,919<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 54 44 73 70 68<br />

Tax Paid (3,889) (5,963) (5,192) (5,719) (6,648)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (15,009) (21,673) 1,129 (10,867) 12,059<br />

Cash Flow from Operations (2,551) (7,998) 22,111 12,153 38,633<br />

Capital Expenditure (1,707) (1,565) (7,526) (3,300) (3,300)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (2,990) 31 100 97 95<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (4,906) (5,453) (7,926) (3,814) (3,773)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 11,398 755 2,518 274 (1,326)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net (2,009) (2,458) (2,948) (3,548) (3,982)<br />

Dividends Paid 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 14,562 (1,221) (2,926) (3,431) (5,437)<br />

Change in Cash 7,105 (14,672) 11,259 4,908 29,422<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 35.9% 38.7% 41.6% 41.1% 40.7%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 35.8% 38.6% 41.5% 41.0% 40.6%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 27.9% 30.9% 25.8% 25.3% 25.1%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 25.6% 24.0% 20.4% 19.1% 19.0%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 11.9% 11.4% 13.8% 13.8% 13.9%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 16.5% 14.1% 17.0% 17.7% 21.4%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 76.9% 60.4% 51.2% 44.2% 36.7%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 21.6% 33.2% 16.4% 9.2% -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 285.4% 270.5% 243.9% 229.8% 226.0%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.3x 1.3x 1.9x 2.0x 2.0x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 14.2x 13.8x 58.1x 62.8x 73.7x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 52.2% 28.2% 38.7% 43.5% 59.4%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 205.0% 188.4% 186.7% 194.4% 177.6%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 70.8% 48.8% 57.2% 65.9% 78.1%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

389 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Hang Lung Properties Limited (101 HK)<br />

Sector: Financials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Real Estate<br />

Country: Hong Kong<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Hang Lung Properties Limited is a Hong Kong-based quality property developer that has a portfolio of<br />

commercial, office, residential, serviced apt and industrial properties in Hong Kong. It also has an office<br />

and retail portfolio in Mainland China. The Company is the property arm of Hang Lung Group Limited.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 30 Jun) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Cash Equivalents (HK$ m) 11,535 27,202 33,202 39,645 39,164<br />

Gross Debt (HK$m) 6,458 16,736 32,236 37,023 36,811<br />

Interest Expense (HK$m) (203) (255) (564) (797) (849)<br />

EBIT (HK$m) 8,526 3,684 5,624 6,485 9,832<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 6.6% 14.6% 27.4% 31.1% 29.7%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 229.1% 319.8% 498.3% 423.6% 387.8%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 0.7x 3.1x 4.3x 5.3x 3.7x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.5x 1.9x 1.0x 0.5x 0.5x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 42.0x 14.4x 10.0x 8.1x 11.6x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (HK$ m) 12,057 5,164 7,903 8,906 13,679<br />

% Change (YoY) 188.9% (57.2%) 53.0% 12.7% 53.6%<br />

EBITDA (HK$ m) 8,549 3,708 5,657 6,527 9,878<br />

% of Sales 70.9% 71.8% 71.6% 73.3% 72.2%<br />

Net Income (HK$ m) 23,561 5,792 6,071 5,043 7,677<br />

% of Sales 195.4% 112.2% 76.8% 56.6% 56.1%<br />

Free Cash Flow (HK$ m) 5,257 (2,443) (5,479) 5,657 3,469<br />

% of Sales 43.6% (47.3%) (69.3%) 63.5% 25.4%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 8,931 11,535 27,202 33,202 39,645<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 5,257 (2,443) (5,479) 5,657 3,469<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 14,188 9,092 21,723 38,859 43,114<br />

Principal Repayments 4,676 1,480 4,500 10,213 15,213<br />

Interest Payments 203 255 564 797 849<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 4,879 1,735 5,064 11,010 16,062<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 2.9x 5.2x 4.3x 3.5x 2.7x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In HK$ m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 27,202 38.6%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 18,670 26.5%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 45,872 65.1%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 6,694 9.5%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 52,566 74.6%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 70,441 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.0x<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 27.4%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 4.3x<br />

Issue<br />

Size (m)<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(HK$ m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 142,657 117,166 138,408<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 16,736 32,236 37,023<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EJ245454 Corp At Maturity Company Guarantee US$ 500.0 500.0 98.50 25-Jun-2012 25-Jun-2022 4.75% 2<br />

EJ376060 Corp At Maturity Company Guarantee HK$ 225.0 225.0 100.00 05-Oct-2012 05-Oct-2022 3.55% 2<br />

390 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

10.5%<br />

89.5%<br />

21.6% 21.1%<br />

78.4% 78.9%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

45.0x<br />

40.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

35.0x<br />

30.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

25.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Debt Service Cover (RHS) Interest Cover (LHS)<br />

6.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

34<br />

29<br />

24<br />

2.9x<br />

5.2x<br />

4.3x<br />

3.5x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

19<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Hang Lung Properties Limited


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (HK$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 12,057 5,164 7,903 8,906 13,679<br />

Operating Expenses (3,508) (1,456) (2,246) (2,378) (3,801)<br />

EBITDA 8,549 3,708 5,657 6,527 9,878<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (23) (24) (34) (42) (46)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 8,526 3,684 5,624 6,485 9,832<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (12) 116 103 80 (77)<br />

Fair Value Changes 21,234 3,349 1,295 0 0<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 0 22 486 0 0<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 192 98 99 104 109<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 29,940 7,269 7,607 6,670 9,864<br />

Taxes on Profit (4,983) (1,028) (1,041) (1,100) (1,628)<br />

Minority Interests (1,396) (449) (494) (526) (560)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 23,561 5,792 6,071 5,043 7,677<br />

Balance Sheet (HK$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 163 204 284 292 293<br />

Investment Properties 96,291 107,442 119,026 123,511 127,855<br />

Long-term Investments 3 865 865 38 38<br />

Associates 934 991 1,041 1,093 1,147<br />

Other Non-Current Assets 25 32 32 32 32<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 97,416 109,534 121,248 124,965 129,366<br />

Total Current Assets 18,884 35,148 40,600 45,188 46,960<br />

Total Assets 116,300 144,682 161,847 170,154 176,325<br />

Shareholders' Equity 93,105 109,719 112,190 112,984 117,525<br />

Total Equity 97,787 114,924 117,728 118,878 123,796<br />

Long Term Debt 4,978 12,236 28,690 33,477 33,265<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 12,825 20,632 37,072 41,852 41,634<br />

Total Current Liabilities 5,688 9,126 7,047 9,425 10,896<br />

Total Liabilities 18,513 29,758 44,119 51,276 52,530<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 116,300 144,682 161,847 170,154 176,325<br />

Cash Flow Statement (HK$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 29,940 7,269 7,607 6,670 9,864<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 23 24 34 42 46<br />

Tax Paid (1,131) (634) (783) (894) (1,151)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital 1,379 677 (835) 4,026 (1,257)<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 8,923 3,873 4,521 9,657 7,469<br />

Capital Expenditure (3,666) (6,316) (10,000) (4,000) (4,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 28 (820) (64) 771 (52)<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (3,547) (14,298) (9,683) (2,777) (3,564)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 280 10,263 15,500 4,787 (213)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 10,896 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (2,823) (3,017) (3,605) (4,254) (3,141)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing (2,772) 17,931 11,162 (438) (4,385)<br />

Change in Cash 2,604 7,506 6,000 6,443 (480)<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 70.9% 71.8% 71.6% 73.3% 72.2%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 70.7% 71.3% 71.2% 72.8% 71.9%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 195.4% 112.2% 76.8% 56.6% 56.1%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 29.2% 5.7% 5.5% 4.5% 6.7%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 8.4% 3.0% 3.9% 4.1% 5.9%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 4.2% 2.6% 4.0% 4.4% 6.5%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 6.6% 14.6% 27.4% 31.1% 29.7%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) - - - - -<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 127.1% 128.7% 138.1% 147.4% 150.3%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.5x 1.9x 1.0x 0.5x 0.5x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 42.0x 14.4x 10.0x 8.1x 11.6x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 202.8% 298.1% 471.2% 420.6% 359.4%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 332.0% 385.1% 576.2% 479.5% 431.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 229.1% 319.8% 498.3% 423.6% 387.8%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

391 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK)<br />

Sector: Financials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2013F<br />

Industry Group : Real Estate<br />

Country: Hong Kong<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited (SHKP, the Group) is a leading property developer in Hong Kong. Its<br />

core business is the development of properties for sale and investment. It particularly specializes in<br />

premium-quality residential and commercial projects for sale and investment. It has complementary<br />

operations in property-related fields like hotel management, insurance and property management.<br />

Besides, it also has investments in telecommunications, information technology, transportation,<br />

infrastructure and logistics and other businesses.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 30 Jun) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Cash Equivalents (HK$ m) 7,898 14,338 14,764 24,025 26,518<br />

Gross Debt (HK$m) 60,435 71,266 59,235 54,721 51,264<br />

Interest Expense (HK$m) (1,198) (1,801) (1,357) (1,185) (1,102)<br />

EBIT (HK$m) 20,792 24,456 23,550 24,942 26,649<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 19.4% 20.3% 16.3% 14.5% 13.0%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 84.9% 94.6% 92.9% 97.3% 83.2%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 2.4x 2.5x 2.6x 2.2x 1.9x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 2.8x 1.0x 0.9x 1.3x 1.5x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 17.4x 13.6x 17.4x 21.0x 24.2x<br />

Operating Performance 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Sales (HK$ m) 62,553 68,400 65,669 69,753 74,519<br />

% Change (YoY) 88.4% 9.3% (4.0%) 6.2% 6.8%<br />

EBITDA (HK$ m) 22,166 25,994 24,782 26,242 28,006<br />

% of Sales 35.4% 38.0% 37.7% 37.6% 37.6%<br />

Net Income (HK$ m) 48,097 43,080 20,251 21,242 22,631<br />

% of Sales 76.9% 63.0% 30.8% 30.5% 30.4%<br />

Free Cash Flow (HK$ m) (13,104) 2,011 17,300 17,597 10,258<br />

% of Sales (20.9%) 2.9% 26.3% 25.2% 13.8%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 8,204 7,898 14,338 14,764 24,025<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (13,104) 2,011 17,300 17,597 10,258<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) (4,900) 9,909 31,638 32,362 34,283<br />

Principal Repayments 5,869 21,572 22,031 14,514 13,457<br />

Interest Payments 1,198 1,801 1,357 1,185 1,102<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 7,067 23,373 23,388 15,700 14,559<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) (0.7x) 0.4x 1.4x 2.1x 2.4x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In HK$ m)<br />

2013F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 14,338 14.2%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 99,807 98.5%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 114,145 112.7%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 0 0.0%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 114,145 112.7%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 101,279 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.9x<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 16.3%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.4x<br />

Issue<br />

Size (m)<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(HK$ m) 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 238,448 310,781 310,781<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 71,266 59,235 54,721<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EJ014385 Corp At Maturity Company Guarantee US$ 900.0 900.0 99.00 14-Feb-2012 14-Feb-2022 4.50% 2<br />

EI854043 Corp At Maturity Company Guarantee US$ 775.0 775.0 99.90 02-Nov-2011 02-Nov-2016 3.50% 2<br />

EI450074 Corp At Maturity Company Guarantee US$ 300.0 300.0 99.40 02-Nov-2010 02-Nov-2020 4.00% 2<br />

392 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

23.0%<br />

77.0%<br />

16.0% 15.0%<br />

84.0% 85.0%<br />

2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

25.0x<br />

20.0x<br />

15.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

5.0x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.5x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Debt Service Cover (RHS) Interest Cover (LHS)<br />

2.5x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.0x<br />

(0.5x)<br />

(1.0x)<br />

143<br />

133<br />

123<br />

113<br />

103<br />

93<br />

83<br />

(0.7x)<br />

0.4x<br />

1.4x<br />

2.1x<br />

2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

73<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Sun Hung Kai Properties


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (HK$ m) 2011A 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F<br />

Total Revenue 62,553 68,400 65,669 69,753 74,519<br />

Operating Expenses (40,387) (42,406) (40,886) (43,510) (46,513)<br />

EBITDA 22,166 25,994 24,782 26,242 28,006<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (1,374) (1,538) (1,233) (1,301) (1,357)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 20,792 24,456 23,550 24,942 26,649<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (1,033) (1,532) (1,185) (996) (856)<br />

Fair Value Changes 25,070 19,482 0 0 0<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 218 324 163 171 198<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 10,744 6,155 2,995 3,099 3,173<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 56,147 49,093 26,065 27,762 29,739<br />

Taxes on Profit (7,359) (5,284) (5,202) (5,861) (6,400)<br />

Minority Interests (691) (729) (613) (658) (708)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 48,097 43,080 20,251 21,242 22,631<br />

Balance Sheet (HK$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 17,896 18,591 20,606 22,162 23,381<br />

Investment Properties 212,863 233,867 238,933 245,775 256,787<br />

Long-term Investments 3,362 3,522 3,284 3,067 3,687<br />

Associates 41,935 49,515 51,299 53,144 55,034<br />

Other Non-Current Assets 5,324 5,286 4,840 4,451 4,110<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 281,380 310,781 318,962 328,599 342,998<br />

Total Current Assets 131,817 156,789 153,555 167,304 167,997<br />

Total Assets 413,197 467,570 472,516 495,904 510,995<br />

Shareholders' Equity 306,965 346,559 358,787 372,899 388,598<br />

Total Equity 312,195 350,959 363,554 378,061 394,185<br />

Long Term Debt 50,753 61,465 54,836 50,321 38,766<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 62,202 74,684 68,158 63,762 52,340<br />

Total Current Liabilities 38,800 41,927 40,804 54,081 64,469<br />

Total Liabilities 101,002 116,611 108,962 117,842 116,810<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 413,197 467,570 472,516 495,904 510,995<br />

Cash Flow Statement (HK$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 56,147 49,093 26,065 27,762 29,739<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 1,374 1,538 1,233 1,301 1,357<br />

Tax Paid (4,382) (2,014) (3,586) (4,268) (4,908)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (22,897) (16,067) 6,615 7,609 3,183<br />

Cash Flow from Operations (4,346) 8,149 27,640 29,394 26,034<br />

Capital Expenditure (8,758) (6,138) (10,339) (11,796) (15,776)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (1,321) 228 2,425 2,366 1,379<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (2,722) (5,708) (5,833) (7,346) (12,147)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 14,732 9,861 (12,031) (4,514) (3,457)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (7,491) (4,750) (8,953) (8,483) (8,947)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 6,633 4,385 (21,380) (12,786) (11,394)<br />

Change in Cash (435) 6,826 426 9,261 2,493<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 35.4% 38.0% 37.7% 37.6% 37.6%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 33.2% 35.8% 35.9% 35.8% 35.8%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 76.9% 63.0% 30.8% 30.5% 30.4%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 16.9% 13.2% 5.7% 5.8% 5.9%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 5.4% 5.6% 5.0% 5.2% 5.3%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 5.2% 5.7% 5.1% 5.4% 5.7%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 19.4% 20.3% 16.3% 14.5% 13.0%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 16.8% 16.2% 12.2% 8.1% 6.3%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 134.7% 134.8% 133.3% 132.4% 132.2%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 2.8x 1.0x 0.9x 1.3x 1.5x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 17.4x 13.6x 17.4x 21.0x 24.2x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 20.4% 34.2% 36.2% 44.4% 41.1%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 339.7% 374.0% 376.3% 309.4% 260.6%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 84.9% 94.6% 92.9% 97.3% 83.2%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

393 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Swire Pacific Ltd (19 HK)<br />

Sector: Financials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Real Estate<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.7x<br />

Country: Hong Kong<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 20.6%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) (0.1x)<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Swire Pacific Limited is one of Hong Kong's leading listed companies with diversified interests in five<br />

operating divisions namely Property, Aviation, Beverages, Marine Services and Trading & Industrial. The<br />

company's operations are predominantly based in the Greater China region.<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Cash Equivalents (HK$ m) 4,180 3,922 1,560 3,938 4,439<br />

Gross Debt (HK$m) 45,454 39,651 49,425 56,373 59,737<br />

Interest Expense (HK$m) (1,491) (1,690) (2,004) (2,380) (2,612)<br />

EBIT (HK$m) 6,989 7,634 8,189 9,074 9,734<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 21.7% 17.1% 20.6% 23.3% 24.3%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 34.7% 40.8% 36.8% 41.0% 40.6%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 4.8x 4.6x 4.4x 4.6x 4.7x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.6x 0.6x 0.7x 1.0x 0.8x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 4.7x 4.5x 4.1x 3.8x 3.7x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (HK$ m) 29,201 36,286 40,809 43,550 46,525<br />

% Change (YoY) 17.2% 24.3% 12.5% 6.7% 6.8%<br />

EBITDA (HK$ m) 8,317 9,301 10,161 11,410 12,329<br />

% of Sales 28.5% 25.6% 24.9% 26.2% 26.5%<br />

Net Income (HK$ m) 38,252 32,210 12,217 7,675 9,587<br />

% of Sales 131.0% 88.8% 29.9% 17.6% 20.6%<br />

Free Cash Flow (HK$ m) 1,698 1,422 (4,751) 3,554 5,839<br />

% of Sales 5.8% 3.9% (11.6%) 8.2% 12.6%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 2,564 4,180 3,922 1,560 3,938<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow 1,698 1,422 (4,751) 3,554 5,839<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 4,262 5,602 (829) 5,114 9,778<br />

Principal Repayments 3,717 13,078 10,083 8,052 11,636<br />

Interest Payments 1,491 1,690 2,004 2,380 2,612<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 5,208 14,768 12,087 10,432 14,249<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 0.8x 0.4x (0.1x) 0.5x 0.7x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In HK$ m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 3,922 5.5%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 24,732 34.7%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 28,654 40.2%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 16,458 23.1%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 45,112 63.3%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 71,219 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Issue<br />

Size (m)<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

24.3% 25.5% 27.8%<br />

75.7% 74.5% 72.2%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

(HK$ m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 123,307 144,218 146,550<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 39,651 49,425 56,373<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

5.0x<br />

1.8x<br />

1.6x<br />

4.0x<br />

1.4x<br />

1.2x<br />

3.0x<br />

1.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

0.8x<br />

0.6x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Debt Service Cover (RHS) Interest Cover (LHS)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

0.9x<br />

0.8x<br />

0.7x<br />

0.8x<br />

0.6x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.3x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.1x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.5x<br />

(0.1x)<br />

(0.2x)<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F<br />

(0.1x)<br />

2013F<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EH313421 Corp At Maturity Company Guarantee US$ 500.0 500.0 99.10 18-Apr-2008 18-Apr-2018 6.25% 2<br />

EJ038674 Corp At Maturity Company Guarantee US$ 500.0 500.0 99.00 28-Feb-2012 28-Feb-2022 4.50% 2<br />

EF322847 Corp At Maturity Senior Unsecured HK$ 1,800.0 1,800.0 100.00 30-Mar-2006 28-Mar-2013 4.93% 4<br />

394 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

114<br />

104<br />

94<br />

84<br />

74<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

64<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Swire Pacific Ltd


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (HK$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 29,201 36,286 40,809 43,550 46,525<br />

Operating Expenses (20,884) (26,985) (30,647) (32,140) (34,196)<br />

EBITDA 8,317 9,301 10,161 11,410 12,329<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (1,328) (1,667) (1,973) (2,336) (2,595)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 6,989 7,634 8,189 9,074 9,734<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (1,453) (1,623) (1,954) (2,330) (2,533)<br />

Fair Value Changes 21,344 22,771 7,117 0 0<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 194 13 425 272 252<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 7,815 4,371 1,154 2,063 3,686<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 40,527 34,185 15,013 9,167 11,232<br />

Taxes on Profit (1,638) (1,630) (2,287) (1,172) (1,245)<br />

Minority Interests (637) (345) (509) (320) (399)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 38,252 32,210 12,217 7,675 9,587<br />

Balance Sheet (HK$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 24,125 27,288 37,434 42,200 46,703<br />

Investment Properties 180,418 191,805 200,805 202,700 203,927<br />

Long-term Investments 302 188 188 188 188<br />

Associates 42,053 46,011 46,682 47,198 48,690<br />

Other Non-Current Assets 7,341 7,059 6,983 6,908 6,835<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 254,239 272,351 292,092 299,194 306,343<br />

Total Current Assets 16,336 20,312 19,297 22,679 25,070<br />

Total Assets 270,575 292,663 311,389 321,873 331,414<br />

Shareholders' Equity 204,452 227,559 234,701 236,806 240,503<br />

Total Equity 209,051 232,476 239,770 241,971 245,789<br />

Long Term Debt 31,070 29,568 41,373 44,737 45,957<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 36,378 35,161 46,966 50,330 51,550<br />

Total Current Liabilities 25,146 25,026 24,653 29,572 34,074<br />

Total Liabilities 61,524 60,187 71,619 79,902 85,625<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 270,575 292,663 311,389 321,873 331,414<br />

Cash Flow Statement (HK$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 40,527 34,185 15,013 9,167 11,232<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 1,328 1,667 1,973 2,336 2,595<br />

Tax Paid (682) (913) (2,133) (1,412) (1,287)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (809) (269) 156 572 511<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 8,650 11,150 8,749 12,204 13,839<br />

Capital Expenditure (6,952) (9,728) (13,500) (8,650) (8,000)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net 914 (914) 0 0 0<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (10,160) 6,508 (13,450) (8,599) (7,921)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 9,585 (6,080) 9,774 6,948 3,364<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (4,815) (10,005) (5,075) (5,570) (5,889)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 2,971 (17,727) 2,338 (1,226) (5,418)<br />

Change in Cash 1,461 (69) (2,362) 2,378 501<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 28.5% 25.6% 24.9% 26.2% 26.5%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 23.9% 21.0% 20.1% 20.8% 20.9%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 131.0% 88.8% 29.9% 17.6% 20.6%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 20.5% 14.9% 5.3% 3.3% 4.0%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 2.9% 2.7% 2.7% 2.9% 3.0%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 3.4% 3.3% 2.9% 3.0% 3.2%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 21.7% 17.1% 20.6% 23.3% 24.3%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 19.9% 15.5% 20.1% 21.8% 22.6%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 130.7% 130.4% 130.7% 134.3% 136.9%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.6x 0.6x 0.7x 1.0x 0.8x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 4.7x 4.5x 4.1x 3.8x 3.7x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 15.1% 14.8% 5.5% 12.6% 12.4%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 65.0% 81.2% 78.3% 76.7% 73.6%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 34.7% 40.8% 36.8% 41.0% 40.6%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

395 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Wharf Holdings Ltd. (4 HK)<br />

Sector: Financials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Real Estate<br />

Country: Hong Kong<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

The Wharf (Holdings) Limited (Wharf) is one of Hong Kong’s leading property investment companies<br />

with complementary businesses established in the areas of property development, logistics and<br />

communications, media and entertainment. Wharf (Holdings) Ltd., is a subsidiary (50.02% interest) of<br />

Wheelock and Company Limited (20 HK) and is listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (4 HK).<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Cash Equivalents (HK$ m) 16,900 32,528 14,003 11,349 6,565<br />

Gross Debt (HK$m) 49,589 75,993 77,231 81,430 77,059<br />

Interest Expense (HK$m) (926) (1,587) (1,494) (1,547) (1,545)<br />

EBIT (HK$m) 9,081 10,868 13,575 15,063 17,443<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 29.1% 36.0% 32.9% 33.9% 31.2%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 88.5% 117.6% 66.0% 54.2% 32.2%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 4.3x 5.1x 5.1x 4.8x 4.2x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.9x 1.2x 1.3x 1.3x 0.7x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 9.8x 6.8x 9.1x 9.7x 11.3x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (HK$ m) 19,089 23,484 31,159 33,719 37,165<br />

% Change (YoY) 9.5% 23.0% 32.7% 8.2% 10.2%<br />

EBITDA (HK$ m) 10,409 12,263 15,036 16,586 19,051<br />

% of Sales 54.5% 52.2% 48.3% 49.2% 51.3%<br />

Net Income (HK$ m) 35,750 30,568 27,114 9,697 11,185<br />

% of Sales 187.3% 130.2% 87.0% 28.8% 30.1%<br />

Free Cash Flow (HK$ m) (2,307) (12,070) (14,865) 132 6,733<br />

% of Sales (12.1%) (51.4%) (47.7%) 0.4% 18.1%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 18,412 16,900 32,528 14,003 11,349<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (2,307) (12,070) (14,865) 132 6,733<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 16,105 4,830 17,663 14,135 18,082<br />

Principal Repayments 9,487 8,194 8,903 7,946 16,444<br />

Interest Payments 926 1,587 1,494 1,547 1,545<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 10,413 9,781 10,397 9,493 17,990<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.5x 0.5x 1.7x 1.5x 1.0x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In HK$ m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 32,528 46.0%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 18,925 26.8%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 51,453 72.8%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 16,900 23.9%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 68,353 96.7%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 70,665 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.3x<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 32.9%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 1.7x<br />

Issue<br />

Size (m)<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(HK$ m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 106,318 183,557 184,163<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 75,993 77,231 81,430<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

Coupon Freq.<br />

EJ006763 Corp At Maturity Company Guarantee US$ 900.0 900.0 99.50 08-Feb-2012 08-Feb-2017 4.63% 2<br />

EI683205 Corp Convertible Company Guarantee HK$ 6,220.0 6,220.0 100.00 07-Jun-2011 07-Jun-2014 2.30% 2<br />

EG986857 Corp At Maturity Company Guarantee US$ 400.0 400.0 99.90 06-Nov-2011 06-Nov-2017 6.13% 2<br />

396 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

41.7%<br />

58.3%<br />

29.6% 30.7%<br />

70.4% 69.3%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

12.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.4x<br />

1.2x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.8x<br />

0.6x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Debt Service Cover (RHS) Interest Cover (LHS)<br />

1.8x<br />

1.6x<br />

1.4x<br />

1.2x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.8x<br />

0.6x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.0x<br />

69<br />

59<br />

49<br />

39<br />

1.5x<br />

0.5x<br />

1.7x<br />

1.5x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

29<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Wharf Holdings Ltd.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (HK$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 19,089 23,484 31,159 33,719 37,165<br />

Operating Expenses (8,680) (11,221) (16,123) (17,133) (18,114)<br />

EBITDA 10,409 12,263 15,036 16,586 19,051<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (1,328) (1,395) (1,461) (1,523) (1,609)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 9,081 10,868 13,575 15,063 17,443<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (827) (909) (1,286) (1,501) (1,485)<br />

Fair Value Changes 29,249 24,968 17,346 0 0<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 802 (680) 1,730 210 234<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 385 395 501 511 522<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 38,823 34,641 31,866 14,283 16,714<br />

Taxes on Profit (2,358) (3,304) (4,194) (4,387) (5,299)<br />

Minority Interests (715) (769) (557) (199) (230)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 35,750 30,568 27,114 9,697 11,185<br />

Balance Sheet (HK$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 18,397 18,984 18,463 19,475 20,336<br />

Investment Properties 148,241 184,057 218,205 226,042 233,654<br />

Long-term Investments 3,362 2,703 3,103 3,503 3,903<br />

Associates 20,860 27,132 29,204 31,280 33,361<br />

Other Non-Current Assets 1,481 1,283 1,316 1,336 1,350<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 192,341 234,159 270,291 281,637 292,604<br />

Total Current Assets 50,427 83,814 73,744 78,423 79,918<br />

Total Assets 242,768 317,973 344,034 360,060 372,523<br />

Shareholders' Equity 163,089 203,257 226,669 231,981 238,561<br />

Total Equity 170,649 210,874 234,620 240,052 246,770<br />

Long Term Debt 41,760 67,090 70,952 75,150 70,780<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 48,867 76,343 80,205 84,403 80,033<br />

Total Current Liabilities 23,252 30,756 29,209 35,604 45,719<br />

Total Liabilities 72,119 107,099 109,414 120,008 125,752<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 242,768 317,973 344,034 360,060 372,523<br />

Cash Flow Statement (HK$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 38,823 34,641 31,866 14,283 16,714<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 1,328 1,395 1,461 1,523 1,609<br />

Tax Paid (1,440) (2,132) (3,129) (3,809) (4,614)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (7,218) (9,623) (8,443) (1,517) 3,150<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 1,467 (40) 2,922 10,537 16,840<br />

Capital Expenditure (3,774) (12,030) (17,786) (10,405) (10,107)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (5,881) (5,278) (2,376) (2,376) (2,376)<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (6,955) (18,431) (18,619) (12,781) (12,483)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 9,544 26,183 1,097 4,054 (4,444)<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 0 9,987 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (3,116) (3,837) (3,925) (4,464) (4,697)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 5,551 30,758 (4,322) (1,957) (10,686)<br />

Change in Cash 63 12,287 (20,019) (4,201) (6,329)<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 54.5% 52.2% 48.3% 49.2% 51.3%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 47.6% 46.3% 43.6% 44.7% 46.9%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 187.3% 130.2% 87.0% 28.8% 30.1%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 24.5% 16.7% 12.6% 4.2% 4.8%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 4.3% 4.0% 4.2% 4.3% 4.8%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 4.1% 3.4% 3.8% 3.7% 4.2%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 29.1% 36.0% 32.9% 33.9% 31.2%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 19.2% 20.6% 26.9% 29.2% 28.6%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 148.6% 153.1% 154.0% 153.5% 155.7%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 0.9x 1.2x 1.3x 1.3x 0.7x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 9.8x 6.8x 9.1x 9.7x 11.3x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 72.7% 105.8% 47.9% 31.9% 14.4%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 216.9% 272.5% 252.5% 220.3% 174.8%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 88.5% 117.6% 66.0% 54.2% 32.2%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

397 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


Wheelock and Company Ltd. (20 HK)<br />

Sector: Financials Key <strong>Credit</strong> Metrics 2012F<br />

Industry Group : Real Estate<br />

Country: Hong Kong<br />

Brief Company Description<br />

Wheelock and Company Ltd. is a holding company with principal interests in real estate in Hong Kong,<br />

Singapore and Mainland China. The company develops hotels, housing, and shopping centers through<br />

its primary subsidiary The Wharf Holdings (50% owned), as well as Wheelock Properties (100%-owned)<br />

and Wheelock Properties (Singapore) Ltd. (76% owned).<br />

<strong>Credit</strong> Metrics (Yr End 31 Dec) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Cash Equivalents (HK$ m) 27,540 42,668 43,648 42,448 56,330<br />

Gross Debt (HK$m) 65,682 95,682 106,779 106,430 107,200<br />

Interest Expense (HK$m) (1,035) (1,797) (2,106) (2,217) (2,222)<br />

EBIT (HK$m) 10,811 16,847 15,372 17,468 19,244<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 34.0% 40.7% 40.4% 38.5% 37.1%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 87.7% 145.6% 110.8% 116.0% 114.0%<br />

Average Gross Debt to EBITDA (x) 4.6x 4.4x 6.0x 5.6x 5.1x<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.0x 0.9x 1.4x 0.6x 0.7x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 10.4x 9.4x 7.3x 7.9x 8.7x<br />

Operating Performance 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Sales (HK$ m) 23,613 33,675 35,039 38,932 41,037<br />

% Change (YoY) 27.2% 42.6% 4.1% 11.1% 5.4%<br />

EBITDA (HK$ m) 12,143 18,245 16,843 19,005 20,883<br />

% of Sales 51.4% 54.2% 48.1% 48.8% 50.9%<br />

Net Income (HK$ m) 20,194 22,866 15,833 6,741 7,351<br />

% of Sales 85.5% 67.9% 45.2% 17.3% 17.9%<br />

Free Cash Flow (HK$ m) (648) (15,555) (809) 5,916 19,665<br />

% of Sales (2.7%) (46.2%) (2.3%) 15.2% 47.9%<br />

5 Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 27,756 27,540 42,668 43,648 42,448<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow (648) (15,555) (809) 5,916 19,665<br />

Cash Avail. bef. Debt Service (Year End) 27,108 11,985 41,859 49,564 62,113<br />

Principal Repayments 10,776 16,720 8,903 20,349 19,230<br />

Interest Payments 1,035 1,797 2,106 2,217 2,222<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitment 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Total Cash Obligations and Commitments 11,811 18,517 11,009 22,566 21,452<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 2.3x 0.6x 3.8x 2.2x 2.9x<br />

Adjusted Cash Flow Summary (In HK$ m)<br />

2012F<br />

% of<br />

Commitments<br />

Cash and Liquid Assets (Year Beginning) 42,668 38.9%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Adjusted Free Cash Flow Generation 68,703 62.6%<br />

Sum of Cash and 5 Year Cash Generation 111,371 101.5%<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments 19,300 17.6%<br />

Sum of Cash, 5 Year Cash Generation, <strong>Credit</strong> Lines & Adjustments 130,671 119.0%<br />

Sum of 5-Year Cash Commitments 109,771 -<br />

Definitions and Explanations<br />

Adjusted Free Cash Flow: This is the free cash flow from operations after providing for capital<br />

expenditure.<br />

Other Cash Obligations and Commitments: This relates to all short as well as long term obligations<br />

that have debt-like characteristics, i.e., lease payments, pension obligations.<br />

Active <strong>Credit</strong> Lines and Other Adjustments: This relates to unutilized credit facilities that may be in<br />

place and therefore can be called upon in the event of funding needs.<br />

Ticker Code Type <strong>Credit</strong> Comment Currency<br />

No bonds outstanding or information not available in the public domain.<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.4x<br />

Debt to Book Capital (%) 40.4%<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x) 3.8x<br />

Issue<br />

Size (m)<br />

398 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.<br />

Outstanding<br />

Amount (m)<br />

Capital Structure<br />

71.0%<br />

29.0%<br />

Issue<br />

Price<br />

Issue<br />

Date<br />

4 January 2013<br />

(HK$ m) 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity 39,096 79,248 81,077<br />

Preferred Stock 0 0 0<br />

Debt 95,682 106,779 106,430<br />

Coverage Cushion<br />

Interest Cover (x)<br />

Cash Flow Cushion<br />

Cash Flow Cushion (x)<br />

Stock Price Chart<br />

Share Price (HK$)<br />

57.4% 56.8%<br />

42.6% 43.2%<br />

2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

<strong>Market</strong> Equity Debt<br />

12.0x<br />

10.0x<br />

8.0x<br />

6.0x<br />

4.0x<br />

2.0x<br />

Maturity<br />

Date<br />

1.6x<br />

1.4x<br />

1.2x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.8x<br />

0.6x<br />

0.4x<br />

0.2x<br />

0.0x<br />

0.0x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Debt Service Cover (RHS) Interest Cover (LHS)<br />

4.0x<br />

3.5x<br />

3.0x<br />

2.5x<br />

2.0x<br />

1.5x<br />

1.0x<br />

0.5x<br />

0.0x<br />

46<br />

41<br />

36<br />

31<br />

26<br />

21<br />

2.3x<br />

0.6x<br />

3.8x<br />

2.2x<br />

2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F<br />

Debt Service Cover (x)<br />

16<br />

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12<br />

Wheelock and Company Ltd.<br />

Coupon Freq.


FINANCIAL STATEMENTS<br />

Income Statement (HK$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F<br />

Total Revenue 23,613 33,675 35,039 38,932 41,037<br />

Operating Expenses (11,470) (15,430) (18,196) (19,927) (20,154)<br />

EBITDA 12,143 18,245 16,843 19,005 20,883<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation (1,332) (1,398) (1,471) (1,537) (1,639)<br />

EBIT (Operating Profit) 10,811 16,847 15,372 17,468 19,244<br />

Net Interest Income/(Expense) (889) (2,397) (1,803) (1,916) (1,876)<br />

Fair Value Changes 30,839 27,651 18,333 0 0<br />

Other Income/(Expense) 1,180 1,162 2,969 1,851 2,177<br />

Net Participation Income/Associates' Profits 396 859 671 697 723<br />

Profit/(Loss) Before Tax 42,335 44,122 35,541 18,100 20,267<br />

Taxes on Profit (2,630) (4,338) (4,496) (4,882) (5,853)<br />

Minority Interests (19,511) (16,918) (15,212) (6,477) (7,063)<br />

Other Post-tax Items 0 0 0 0 0<br />

Net Profit (Reported) 20,194 22,866 15,833 6,741 7,351<br />

Balance Sheet (HK$ m)<br />

Fixed Assets (Net) 18,410 19,002 18,528 19,821 20,948<br />

Investment Properties 161,953 200,497 236,181 244,371 252,338<br />

Long-term Investments 10,676 7,065 12,864 17,793 21,982<br />

Associates 24,210 27,628 29,015 30,407 31,804<br />

Other Non-Current Assets 1,591 1,308 1,346 1,369 1,385<br />

Total Non-Current Assets 216,840 255,500 297,934 313,761 328,458<br />

Total Current Assets 69,396 108,612 108,624 110,369 116,994<br />

Total Assets 286,236 364,112 406,558 424,130 445,452<br />

Shareholders' Equity 100,372 122,562 138,115 144,034 150,488<br />

Total Equity 193,076 235,194 264,484 276,251 289,083<br />

Long Term Debt 49,320 86,779 90,430 95,200 95,970<br />

Total Non-Current Liabilities 56,603 96,252 99,903 104,673 105,443<br />

Total Current Liabilities 36,557 32,666 42,171 43,207 50,927<br />

Total Liabilities 93,160 128,918 142,074 147,880 156,369<br />

Total Equity & Liabilities 286,236 364,112 406,558 424,130 445,452<br />

Cash Flow Statement (HK$ m)<br />

Profit Before Tax (Reported) 42,335 44,122 35,541 18,100 20,267<br />

Depreciation & Amortisation 1,332 1,398 1,471 1,537 1,639<br />

Tax Paid (1,540) (2,330) (3,651) (4,297) (5,114)<br />

(Increase)/ Decrease in Working Capital (7,072) (18,882) 4,919 2,581 14,663<br />

Cash Flow from Operations 3,391 (3,375) 17,590 16,971 30,426<br />

Capital Expenditure (4,039) (12,180) (18,399) (11,056) (10,761)<br />

Acq./(Disp.) of Investments, Net (16,813) (1,988) (6,816) (5,859) (5,045)<br />

Cash Flow from Investing (16,573) (15,280) (25,216) (16,915) (15,807)<br />

Debt Raised/(Repaid) 18,725 29,785 11,097 (349) 770<br />

Share Issue/(Buyback), Net 49 5,002 0 0 0<br />

Dividends Paid (2,140) (2,707) (2,492) (908) (1,508)<br />

Cash Flow from Financing 16,634 32,080 8,605 (1,257) (738)<br />

Change in Cash 3,452 13,425 980 (1,200) 13,882<br />

Profitability Ratios<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 51.4% 54.2% 48.1% 48.8% 50.9%<br />

EBIT Margin (%) 45.8% 50.0% 43.9% 44.9% 46.9%<br />

Net Profit Margin (%) 85.5% 67.9% 45.2% 17.3% 17.9%<br />

Return on Equity (RoE) (%) 22.8% 20.5% 12.1% 4.8% 5.0%<br />

Return on Assets (RoA, Pre-Tax) (%) 4.3% 5.3% 4.1% 4.3% 4.5%<br />

Return on Invested Capital (RoIC) (%) 4.5% 5.3% 4.1% 4.3% 4.6%<br />

Coverage & Liquidity Ratios<br />

Gross Debt / Total Equity (%) 34.0% 40.7% 40.4% 38.5% 37.1%<br />

Net Debt / Total Equity (%) 19.8% 22.5% 23.9% 23.2% 17.6%<br />

Financial Leverage (%) 288.3% 291.7% 295.6% 294.4% 295.3%<br />

Debt Service Cover (x) 1.0x 0.9x 1.4x 0.6x 0.7x<br />

Interest Cover (x) 10.4x 9.4x 7.3x 7.9x 8.7x<br />

Cash Ratio (%) 75.3% 130.6% 103.5% 98.2% 110.6%<br />

Current Ratio (%) 189.8% 332.5% 257.6% 255.4% 229.7%<br />

Quick Ratio (%) 87.7% 145.6% 110.8% 116.0% 114.0%<br />

Source: Company, <strong>Analec</strong> forecasts<br />

399 Please read the important disclaimers and disclosures at the back of the report.


CREDIT<br />

ANALYSIS<br />

EMERGING MARKETS<br />

Disclaimer<br />

ANALEC Infotech Private Limited (a limited liability company registered in India) and the ModelViewer <strong>Credit</strong><br />

Monitor editorial and investment analyst staff are not registered investment advisors and/or broker/dealers.<br />

This report is purely for illustration purposes and does not contain any recommendations.<br />

Readers are advised that the commentary and reports on the ANALEC ModelViewer <strong>Credit</strong> Monitor and other<br />

similar newsletters are issued solely for information purposes and should not to be construed as an offer to sell<br />

or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The opinions (explicit or implicit) and analyses included herein<br />

are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but no representation or warranty,<br />

expressed or implied is made as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness.<br />

You should verify all claims and do your own research before investing in any security mentioned in the<br />

ModelViewer credit monitor report, or that is discussed on the www.model-viewer.com website or application.<br />

Investing in securities is speculative and carries a high degree of risk. You may lose part or all of your principal<br />

investment.<br />

Readers are urged to consult with their own independent financial advisors with respect to any investment. All<br />

information contained in this report should be independently verified with the companies mentioned in the<br />

report. Neither ANALEC Infotech Private Limited, nor its officers, directors, partners, contributors or<br />

employees/consultants accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from<br />

any use of information in this report or any use of information in any newsletters.<br />

This report contains forward looking estimates and forecasts on individual publicly listed companies that have<br />

been produced by the investment analyst staff at ANALEC Infotech Private Limited and its Affiliates, using<br />

publicly available information in good faith and to the best of their abilities in an objective manner.<br />

Investing involves significant risks. Neither the editor, the publisher or any staff belonging to ANALEC Infotech<br />

Private Limited, nor any of its Affiliates makes any guarantee or other promise as to any results that may be<br />

obtained from using this report. While past performance may be analyzed in this report, past performance<br />

should not be considered indicative of future performance. No subscriber should make any investment decision<br />

without first consulting his or her own personal financial advisor and conducting his or her own research and<br />

due diligence, including carefully reviewing the prospectus and other public filings of the issuer. To the<br />

maximum extent permitted by law, the editor, the publisher and/or any staff in the employment of ANALEC<br />

Infotech Private Limited or any of its Affiliates disclaim any and all liability in the event any information,<br />

commentary, analysis, opinions (explicit or implicit), in this report prove to be inaccurate, incomplete or<br />

unreliable, or result in any investment or other losses.<br />

About ANALEC ModelViewer<br />

ANALEC ModelViewer ® is a versatile software enabled research platform<br />

that delivers ready-to-use financial forecast models on a range of globally<br />

listed companies, for their use and manipulation by its subscribers. All forecast<br />

models are built on an "as reported" basis with complete transparency on<br />

forecasting methodologies, inter-relationships between variables, and sources<br />

of data.<br />

For more information on ANALEC ModelViewer,<br />

please visit www.model-viewer.com<br />

For Subscription Enquiries, please contact:<br />

Email: sales@model-viewer.com<br />

Phone: +1 646 810 6462<br />

4 th January 2013<br />

®

Hooray! Your file is uploaded and ready to be published.

Saved successfully!

Ooh no, something went wrong!