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REPRESENTATION AND ELECTORAL<br />
SYSTEMS<br />
Section on Representation <strong>and</strong> Electoral Systems<br />
© The <strong>American</strong> <strong>Political</strong> <strong>Science</strong> Association<br />
Rockefeller College<br />
State University of New York at Albany<br />
135 Western Avenue<br />
Albany, New York 12222<br />
Vol. XXIII, No. 2 Editor: Joseph F. Zimmerman (zimmer@albany.edu) April 2008<br />
SECTION WEB SITE<br />
Webmaster Erik Herron of the University of Kansas reports the Section’s Website<br />
is functioning <strong>and</strong> can be accessed at http://www.apsanet.org/~res/ The site contains<br />
back issues of Representation <strong>and</strong> Electoral Systems with the exception of the current<br />
issue which is available only to Section members, <strong>and</strong> links to related sites in other<br />
nations.<br />
SECTION PANELS<br />
Program Chair Matthew Golder of the Florida State University has announced the<br />
Section-sponsored panels at the Annual Meeting of the <strong>American</strong> <strong>Political</strong> <strong>Science</strong><br />
Association in Boston, August 28-31, 2008.<br />
Panel 1: Co-sponsored with Comparative Democratization<br />
Panel Title: “Changing Perspectives on Party System Institutionalization in New Democracies<br />
Panel Chair<br />
Richard Gunther (Ohio State)<br />
Panel Discussant<br />
Dr. Herbert Kitschelt (Duke)<br />
Panel Participants<br />
Michael Bernhard (Penn State) <strong>and</strong> Ekrem Karakoc (Penn State), “Moving West or<br />
Going South? Inequality <strong>and</strong> Institutionalization in Post-Communist Party Systems.”<br />
Scott Mainwaring (Notre Dame) <strong>and</strong> Carlos Gervasoni (Notre Dame), “Extra System<br />
Electoral Volatility <strong>and</strong> Party System Institutionalization.”<br />
Steven I. Wilkinson (Chicago), “How Colonial Legacies of Party Competition Affect<br />
Post-independence Levels of Democracy.”<br />
Margit Tavits (Wash. U.), “Party Organizations <strong>and</strong> Electoral Performance in Central <strong>and</strong><br />
Eastern Europe.”
Panel 2: Co-sponsored with Elections <strong>and</strong> Voting Behavior<br />
Panel Title: New Issues in Voter Turnout: <strong>American</strong>ists meet Comparativists<br />
Panel Chair<br />
Harold D. Clarke (UT Dallas)<br />
Panel Discussants<br />
Dr. Brad T. Gomez (FSU)<br />
Miki Caul Kittilson (Arizona State)<br />
2<br />
Panel Participants<br />
Jan E. Leighley (Arizona) <strong>and</strong> Jonathan Nagler (NYU), “Issues, Voter Turnout <strong>and</strong> Class<br />
Bias in the U.S., 1972-2004.”<br />
Jack Vowles (Exeter), “Turnout, Competitiveness, Age, <strong>and</strong> Generations in British<br />
Elections, 1964-2005.”<br />
Eric C.C. Chang (Michigan State) <strong>and</strong> Tse-Hsin Chen (Michigan State)<br />
“Uncovering the Micro-foundation of Turnout <strong>and</strong> Electoral Systems.”<br />
Jean-Francois Godbout (Simon Fraser) <strong>and</strong> Mathieu Turgeon (UNT), “A Matter of<br />
Degree: Policy Preferences <strong>and</strong> the Probability to Vote.”<br />
Aina Gallego (Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona), “Why is Turnout More Unequal in<br />
Some Countries Than in Others? The Impact of Institutions <strong>and</strong> <strong>Political</strong> Mobilization.”<br />
Panel 3: Co-sponsored with Comparative Democratization<br />
Panel Title: Dictators, Citizens, <strong>and</strong> Elections<br />
Panel Chair<br />
Ellen M. Lust-Okar (Yale)<br />
Panel Discussants<br />
Susan Dayton Hyde (Yale)<br />
Jennifer G<strong>and</strong>hi (Emory)<br />
Panel Participants<br />
Andrew Barwig (Denver), “Electoral Rules <strong>and</strong> Electoral Participation in Arab<br />
Parliamentary Elections.”<br />
Henry A. Kim (Arizona), Nathan Batto (University of the Pacific), <strong>and</strong> Faten Ghosn<br />
(Arizona), “Wringing More Seats out of Votes: the Case of Jordan”<br />
Sarah Birch (Essex), “Electoral System Manipulation in Non- <strong>and</strong> Semi-Democracies”<br />
Philip Roessler (Oxford) <strong>and</strong> Marc Howard (Georgetown), “Risking Defeat: Explaining<br />
Electoral Contestation in Authoritarian Regimes.”<br />
Graeme Robertson (UNC) <strong>and</strong> Grigore Pop-Eleches (Princeton), “Elections, Revolution<br />
And Democracy in the Post-Cold War Era.”
Panel 4: Co-sponsored with Comparative Politics of Advanced Industrialized Societies<br />
Panel Title: Representation in Parliamentary Systems.<br />
Panel Chair Matt Golder (FSU)<br />
Panel Discussants<br />
Royce A Carroll (Rice)<br />
Michael D. McDonald (Binghamton)<br />
3<br />
Panel Participants<br />
Professor G. Bingham Powell Jr. (Rochester), “Party System Change <strong>and</strong> Ideological<br />
Congruence.”<br />
Jay K. Dow (Missouri). “Party Dispersion in Majoritarian <strong>and</strong> Proportional Electoral<br />
Systems.”<br />
Paul V. Warwick (Simon Fraser), “Bilateralism or the Median M<strong>and</strong>ate? An Examination<br />
of Rival Perspectives on Democratic Governance.”<br />
Lawrence Ezrow (Essex), “Party Responsiveness to Men <strong>and</strong> Women in Western Europe:<br />
Do Parties Respond Equally to the Policy Preferences of Men <strong>and</strong> Women?”<br />
Panel 5: Co-sponsored with Women <strong>and</strong> Politics<br />
Panel Title: Electoral Institutions <strong>and</strong> Female Representation<br />
Panel Chair Janet K. Boles (Marquette)<br />
Panel Discussants<br />
Rob Salmond (Michigan)<br />
Karen Beckwith (Case Western)<br />
Panel Participants<br />
Dr. Melody Ellis Valdini (Portl<strong>and</strong> State) <strong>and</strong> Lisa Baldez (Dartmouth),<br />
“Existence is not Enough: A Comparative Study of Gender Quota Implementation.”<br />
Andrew Roberts (Northwestern), “The Effect of Electoral Rules on Women’s<br />
Representation: Surprising Results.”<br />
Burt L. Monroe (Penn State) <strong>and</strong> Elena Kirtcheva (Penn State), “He Said, She Said:<br />
Feminine Pronouns <strong>and</strong> the Parliamentary Representation of Female Points of View.”<br />
Christina Xydias (Ohio State), “(Gender) Quota Vadit?: Electoral Institutions <strong>and</strong><br />
Concepts of Representation in Germany.”<br />
Robert G. Moser (UT Austin) <strong>and</strong> Stephanie Holmsten (UT Austin), “Do Ethnic Parties<br />
Discriminate Against Women?”<br />
Panel 6:<br />
Panel Title: Politics of Electoral Reform<br />
Panel Chair<br />
David M. Farrell (Manchester)<br />
Panel Discussants<br />
Richard S. Katz (Johns Hopkins)<br />
Kenneth R. Benoit (Trinity College)
4<br />
Panel Participants<br />
Jih-wen Lin (Academia Sinica), “The Endogenous Change of the Electoral System: The<br />
Case of SNTV.”<br />
Shaheen Mozaffar (Bridgewater State), “Context, Contingency <strong>and</strong> Choice in Electoral<br />
System Reform.”<br />
Alan J. Renwick (Oxford), “The Politics of Electoral Reform in Established<br />
Democracies.”<br />
Georg Lutz (Lausanne), “Explaining the introduction of PR: non-strategic actors, unfair <strong>electoral</strong><br />
competition <strong>and</strong> the need for political coordination.”<br />
Panel 7: Co-sponsored with Elections <strong>and</strong> Voting Behavior<br />
Panel Title: ID Requirements <strong>and</strong> Voter Turnout<br />
Panel Chair<br />
Richard Sobel (Harvard)<br />
Panel Discussants<br />
Jonathan Nagler (NYU)<br />
Richard Sobel (Harvard)<br />
Panel Participants<br />
Matt A. Barreto (University of Washington), Stepehn Nuno (UC Irvine), <strong>and</strong> Gabriel<br />
Sanchez (University of New Mexico), “The Disproportionate Impact of Photo Identification<br />
Requirements on the Indiana Electorate.”<br />
Jonathan N. Katz (Caltech), “The Effect of Voter Identification Laws on Turnout.”<br />
David Anderson (Rutgers), “A Peek Inside: How Provisional Ballots Can Cast Light<br />
Upon Voter ID <strong>and</strong> Turnout.”<br />
Stephen D. Ansolabehere (MIT), “The Voting Experience in the 2008 Presidential<br />
Primary Elections.”<br />
Marjorie R. Hershey (Indiana, Bloomington), “Costs of Voting: Effects on Turnout.”<br />
Panel 8: Co-sponsored with Comparative Politics of Advanced Industrialized Societies<br />
Panel Title: Voter Turnout: Who Votes <strong>and</strong> Why?<br />
Panel Chair<br />
Melanie Goodrich (NYU)<br />
Panel Discussants<br />
Robert A. Jackson (FSU)<br />
Timothy Hellwig (Houston)<br />
Panel Participants<br />
Todd Donovan (Western Washington University) <strong>and</strong> Caroline Tolbert (Iowa), “The<br />
<strong>Political</strong> Context of Learning: Electoral Competition <strong>and</strong> Turnout of Less Interested Citizens.”<br />
Marina Costa Lobo (Universidade de Lisboa) <strong>and</strong> Michael Lewis-Beck (Iowa), “Party<br />
Identification vs. Ideology in Portugal: Evidence from the 2005 Legislative <strong>and</strong> the 2006<br />
Presidential Elections.”
5<br />
Lee Ann Banaszak (Penn State) <strong>and</strong> Ekrem Karakoc (Penn State), “Revisiting Bonding<br />
<strong>and</strong> Bridging Associations in Ethnically Diverse Societies: Their Differential Effect on <strong>Political</strong><br />
Participation.”<br />
Jae-Jae Spoon (Iowa) <strong>and</strong> Christian Jensen (Iowa), “Moving Beyond Turnout: The<br />
Effects of Compulsory Voting on Governments <strong>and</strong> Policy Outcomes.”<br />
Vincent A. Mahler (Loyola University, Chicago) <strong>and</strong> Sarah Skowronski, “Exploring the<br />
Sources of Cross-National Variation in Electoral Turnout: An Empirical Analysis of the<br />
Developed Countries.”<br />
Panel 9:<br />
Panel Title: Re-Examining Strategic Voting<br />
Panel Chair<br />
Bernard N. Grofman (UC Irvine)<br />
Panel Discussants<br />
Pradeep Chhibber (Berkeley)<br />
R. Kenneth Carty (UBC)<br />
Panel Participants<br />
Bernard Dolez (CERAPS), Annie Laurent (CERAPS), <strong>and</strong> Eric Dubois (CERAPS).<br />
Michael F. Meffert (Mannheim) <strong>and</strong> Thomas Gschwend (Mannheim), “Strategic<br />
Coalition Voting. Evidence from Austria.”<br />
Jungug Choi (Konkuk University), “The Extent <strong>and</strong> Determinants of Strategic Voting:<br />
The 2004 Indian General Elections.”<br />
Jiyoon Kim (Montreal), “Decision Under Two Ballots: Strategic Voting Behaviour of<br />
Korean Electorates.”<br />
Panel 10:<br />
Panel Title: Electoral Coordination <strong>and</strong> Volatility<br />
Panel Chair<br />
Kenneth W. Kollman (Michigan)<br />
Panel Discussants<br />
Indridi Haukur Indridason (Oxford/UC Riverside)<br />
Won-Ho Park (Florida)<br />
Panel Participants<br />
Heather Stoll (UCSB) <strong>and</strong> Allen Hicken (Michigan), “Legislative Policy-Making<br />
Authority <strong>and</strong> Electoral Coordination in Parliamentary Democracies.”<br />
Eitan Tzelgov (Penn State), “Party System Inflation in Proportional Representation<br />
Democracies.”<br />
Frank C. Thames (Texas Tech), Dennis Patterson (Texas Tech) <strong>and</strong> Joe Robbins (Texas<br />
Tech), “The Institutional Causes of Electoral Volatility.”<br />
Jon Fraenkel (Australian National University), “Neo-Patrimonialism, Unbounded Politics<br />
or Personal Rule? An Investigation of Parliamentary Instability & Incumbent Turnover in postindependence<br />
Melanesia.”
Panel 11: Co-sponsored with Women <strong>and</strong> Politics<br />
Panel Title: Gender Quotas <strong>and</strong> Women’s <strong>Political</strong> Representation<br />
Panel Chair<br />
Richard E. Matl<strong>and</strong> (Loyola University, Chicago)<br />
Panel Discussants<br />
Leslie A. Schwindt-Bayer (University of Missouri, Columbia)<br />
Richard E. Matl<strong>and</strong> (Loyola University, Chicago)<br />
6<br />
Panel Participants<br />
Petra Meier (Antwerp), “Do Gender Quotas Have an Impact? Explaining the Increasing<br />
Number of Women in Belgian Politics.”<br />
Gretchen M. Bauer (Delaware), “Better Governors? The Impact of Women MPs on<br />
Governance in Africa.”<br />
Jennifer Marie Piscopo (UCSD), “The Framing <strong>and</strong> Articulation of Women’s Rights in<br />
Argentina: Evidence from Legislative Debates.”<br />
Aparna Thomas (Cornell College), “Formal <strong>and</strong> Informal Institutions: Gender <strong>and</strong><br />
Participation in the Panchayati Raj.”<br />
Susan Franceschet (Calgary) <strong>and</strong> Mona Krook (Wash. U.), “Measuring the Impact of<br />
Quotas on Women’s Substantive Representation: Towards a Conceptual Framework.”<br />
Panel 12: Co-sponsored with the law <strong>and</strong> <strong>Political</strong> process Study Group<br />
Panel Title: Debating Rules for Presidential Elections: Primaries <strong>and</strong> the Electoral College<br />
Panel Chair<br />
Mark Rush, Washington <strong>and</strong> Lee University<br />
Panel Participants<br />
Vikram, Amar, Hastings College of Law<br />
Bruce Cain, University of California, Berkeley<br />
Daniel Lowenstein, University of California, Los Angeles<br />
Steven Smith, Washington University<br />
Posters<br />
Josh Ryan (University of Colorado, Boulder), “The Relationship Between State<br />
Redistricting Methods <strong>and</strong> House Member Ideology.”<br />
Shigeo Hirano (Columbia University), “Direct <strong>and</strong> Indirect Representation.”<br />
Frank C. Thames (Texas Tech University) <strong>and</strong> Margaret Susan Williams (Goucher<br />
College), “<strong>Political</strong> Context <strong>and</strong> Party Gender Quotas in the OECD.”<br />
Paulina Pospieszna (University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa), “Government Responsiveness<br />
in Central <strong>and</strong> Eastern Europe:Relating Median Voter <strong>and</strong> Government Policy Preferences.”<br />
Ko Maeda (University of North Texas), “The Behavioral Differences between Ruling<br />
Parties <strong>and</strong> Opposition Parties: Policy Shifts, Leadership Changes, <strong>and</strong> Splits.”<br />
Ray Christensen (Brigham Young University), “Democratic Reversals, A Study of<br />
Electoral Outcomes that Differ from the Intent of the Voters.”<br />
Michael J. Ensley (Indiana University) <strong>and</strong> Edward G. Carmines (Indiana University,<br />
Bloomington), “The Long-term Consequences of Competitive House Campaigns.”
SECTION TREASURER REPORT<br />
7<br />
Professor Bonnie M. Meguid of the University of Rochester assumed the role of<br />
Section Treasurer/Secretary as of September 2007. Because the account information was<br />
not available at the time of the annual business meeting held during the 2007 annual<br />
meeting of the <strong>American</strong> <strong>Political</strong> <strong>Science</strong> Association, she submits a “mid-year”<br />
Treasurer’s Report on the state of the section’s finances as of January 31, 2008.<br />
<strong>American</strong> <strong>Political</strong> <strong>Science</strong> Association<br />
Representation <strong>and</strong> Electoral Systems Organized Section<br />
Treasurer's Report (July 2007 - January 2008)<br />
1. Beginning Balance $5,701.63 [6/30/07]<br />
2. Income Since July 2007<br />
3. Expenses Since July 2007<br />
Quarterly Section Member Dues $248.00 [8/02/2007]<br />
Quarterly Section Member Dues $138.00 [10/17/2007]<br />
Mailing Label Sales $67.82 [8/02/2007]<br />
TOTAL INCOME $453.82<br />
2007 Award Plaques $541.26<br />
New Checks for the Account $30.00<br />
TOTAL EXPENSES $571.26<br />
4. Balance as of 31 January 2008 $5,584.19<br />
Respectfully Submitted,<br />
Bonnie M. Meguid<br />
Section Treasurer
8<br />
She notes “our income derives mainly from section membership dues. According<br />
to APSA’s count in January, our current membership is 379. We need to maintain a<br />
membership of at least 250 per quarter in order to retain APSA’s Organized Section<br />
status, which includes the right to be part of the official Program Committee of the<br />
Annual Meeting. This report also shows that our expenditures have exceeded our<br />
income, but by only a small amount; this has been the pattern over the last 18 months.<br />
SECTION BYLAWS<br />
I. NAME AND PURPOSE OF SECTION<br />
The name of this section is the Section on Representation <strong>and</strong> Electoral Systems of the<br />
<strong>American</strong> <strong>Political</strong> <strong>Science</strong> Association. The purposes of this section are to promote<br />
teaching <strong>and</strong> research in the areas of <strong>representation</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>electoral</strong> <strong>systems</strong>, <strong>and</strong> to<br />
encourage communication among persons interested in these fields within the<br />
Association <strong>and</strong> with related disciplines.<br />
II. MEMBERSHIP<br />
Section 1. Membership in the Section is open to all persons with an interest in<br />
Representation <strong>and</strong> Electoral Systems who pay the annual section dues <strong>and</strong> their associate<br />
or regular <strong>American</strong> <strong>Political</strong> <strong>Science</strong> Association dues.<br />
Section 2. Annual section dues may be established at the annual meeting of<br />
the section <strong>and</strong> are payable at the time of payment of associate or regular <strong>American</strong><br />
<strong>Political</strong> <strong>Science</strong> Association dues.<br />
Section 3. The annual meeting of the section will be held in conjunction with<br />
the annual meeting of the <strong>American</strong> <strong>Political</strong> <strong>Science</strong> Association. The announcement of<br />
the section’s annual meeting will be published in the printed annual meeting program of<br />
the Association.<br />
III. GOVERNANCE<br />
Section 1. An executive committee consisting of eight members shall be<br />
elected at the annual meeting of the section in odd number years for two year terms.<br />
Section 2. One of the members of the Executive Committee shall be elected<br />
at the annual meeting of the section in odd number years to serve as chairperson. The<br />
chairperson of the section shall preside at the annual meeting, call meetings of the<br />
executive committee, <strong>and</strong> be responsible for implementing <strong>and</strong> coordinating the programs<br />
of the section for a two-year period.<br />
The chairperson shall appoint three members to serve as a Nominations Committee<br />
under the chairmanship of a member designated by the chair-person of the section. The<br />
Nominations Committee shall recommend at least one member for each office the terms<br />
of which are due to expire at the next annual business meeting.<br />
The chairperson shall appoint a Secretary-Treasurer who is responsible for submitting<br />
an annual report to the chairperson of the section <strong>and</strong> to the Executive Director of the<br />
<strong>American</strong> <strong>Political</strong> <strong>Science</strong> Association. The chairperson shall appoint other officers
9<br />
from among members of the Executive Committee as the chairperson may consider<br />
appropriate.<br />
IV. PROGRAMS OF THE SECTION<br />
The Section may establish special panels, workshops, symposia, <strong>and</strong> social gathers at<br />
the annual meeting of the <strong>American</strong> <strong>Political</strong> <strong>Science</strong> Association, <strong>and</strong> at international,<br />
regional, state, <strong>and</strong> other professional meetings.<br />
V. AMENDMENT OF THE BYLAWS<br />
The annual meeting of the Section shall have the power to amend by Bylaws of the<br />
Section by a majority vote.<br />
ELECTIONS, PUBLIC OPINION, PARTIES CONFERENCE<br />
The 2008 annual Elections, Public Opinion, <strong>and</strong> Parties Conference will be held at<br />
the University of Manchester (Engl<strong>and</strong>) on September 12-14, 2008. High quality papers<br />
on any aspect of these subjects will be welcomed <strong>and</strong> there are no methodological biases<br />
or prejudices.<br />
Panel proposers should complete the Panel Proposal Form (see below) <strong>and</strong><br />
submit it as an E-mail attachment to conference convenor David Cutts at<br />
David.Cutts@manchester.ac.uk. All panels should have a minimum of three papers <strong>and</strong> a<br />
maximum of four papers. All panel proposals forms must be completed in full, including<br />
an abstract of each paper.<br />
Individuals submitting a paper proposal should submit an abstract of no more than<br />
150 words as an E-mail attachment to David.Cutts@manchester.ac.uk.<br />
The deadline for proposals is May 2, 2008. Conference details are available at<br />
http://www.epop08.com<br />
ELECTION LAW COURT DECISIONS<br />
Editor: Richard Winger<br />
Ballot Access News<br />
E-mail: richardwinger@yahoo.com<br />
During the period October 2007 through March 2008, political parties continued<br />
to win lawsuits involving their own autonomy when they nominate c<strong>and</strong>idates. There<br />
were also significant court developments in voter identification requirements for voting at<br />
the polls, <strong>and</strong> in equal treatment for minor parties relative to campaign assistance from<br />
state governments.<br />
However, the single most important development in election law in that period<br />
may not have been any particular court decision, but the enactment by the Vermont<br />
General Assembly of Senate bill 108 providing for the use Instant Runoff Voting for<br />
congressional elections. As of the date of this article, we do not know whether Governor<br />
James Douglas will sign or veto that bill. No state to date has used Instant Runoff Voting<br />
for statewide general elections.
10<br />
<strong>Political</strong> Party Autonomy Cases<br />
On January 16, 2008, the U.S. Supreme Court rendered a unanimous opinion in<br />
New York State Board of Elections v Lopez Torres upholding New York State procedures<br />
for choosing party nominees for Justices of the Supreme Court (a general trial court).<br />
New York is divided into 12 Supreme Court districts. Each district elects its own<br />
Supreme Court Justices on a partisan basis. The Lopez Torres lawsuit concerned the<br />
election law governing how political parties nominate c<strong>and</strong>idates for these offices. The<br />
lower courts had invalidated the law, but the U.S. Supreme Court reinstated them, <strong>and</strong><br />
seemed to say that since the Democratic <strong>and</strong> Republican parties approve of those state<br />
laws, <strong>and</strong> since political parties have a freedom of association right to control their own<br />
nominations process, therefore they are constitutional.<br />
The case would have been more interesting if a New York state political party that<br />
does not approve of the state nomination procedures had filed a lawsuit. The Court’s<br />
decision is only 12 pages long <strong>and</strong> seems to add nothing new to judicial theory on<br />
political party autonomy. One of the oddities of the decision is that although it says the<br />
major political parties support the state nominations procedures, the lead plaintiffs are<br />
Democratic Party members <strong>and</strong> residents of Brooklyn. Neither the New York State<br />
Democratic Party, nor the Brooklyn Democratic Party, nor the national Democratic Party<br />
intervened in the case or expressed any opinion to any of the courts that heard this case.<br />
The only arm of the Democratic Party that expressed any opinion whatsoever was the<br />
Manhattan Democratic Party. However, the U.S. Supreme Court took no note of this<br />
anomaly. The most quoted line from the Lopez Torres decision will probably be this one:<br />
“A political party has a First Amendment right to limit its membership as it wishes, <strong>and</strong><br />
to choose a c<strong>and</strong>idate-selection process that will in its view produce the nominee who<br />
best represents its political platform.”<br />
The specific procedures upheld in the case require parties to nominate by<br />
convention, <strong>and</strong> to elect delegates to these judicial nominating conventions. The law<br />
provides that delegates are nominated from the 150 Assembly districts which vary in<br />
population. The lead plaintiff, Margarita Lopez Torres, lives in the Brooklyn judicial<br />
district which has 21 Assembly districts inside itself. So, if Lopez Torres wanted to place<br />
a full slate of delegate c<strong>and</strong>idates who were pledged to her c<strong>and</strong>idacy, she would need to<br />
recruit 305 c<strong>and</strong>idates, <strong>and</strong> have them placed on Democratic primary ballots. A slate of<br />
delegates within an Assembly district needs 500 signatures. Hence, she would have<br />
needed to coordinate 21 different petition drives, each requiring 500 valid signatures of<br />
Democrats who had not signed a petition for a competing slate. The U.S. Supreme Court<br />
did not discuss the record, which showed that in practice, organizing such slates <strong>and</strong><br />
getting them on the ballot is so difficult that not one insurgent c<strong>and</strong>idate for Judge has<br />
ever been able to do the job, in the 80 years this system has existed. The only group that<br />
can get the job done is the party organization, so generally, only delegates chosen by the<br />
county party leaders get on the primary ballot, <strong>and</strong> therefore the primary voters have no<br />
choice in which judicial c<strong>and</strong>idates are nominated. The U.S. Supreme Court did not refer<br />
to this matter. The court merely opined that since an individual c<strong>and</strong>idate for Delegate<br />
only needs 500 signatures, obviously there is no ballot access constitutional problem.
11<br />
Other <strong>Political</strong> Party Autonomy Decisions<br />
The Democratic Parties of Michigan, Florida, Texas, <strong>and</strong> Nevada, all won<br />
lawsuits filed by voters or c<strong>and</strong>idates who were unhappy with party decisions about the<br />
presidential nominating process. The Texas lawsuit was filed by presidential c<strong>and</strong>idate<br />
Dennis Kucinich, a member of Congress. He challenged a Texas Democratic Party rule<br />
providing no one can be placed on the presidential primary ballot unless that c<strong>and</strong>idate<br />
signs a pledge promising to “fully support” the eventual presidential nominee of the<br />
party. The U.S. District Court upheld the party rule <strong>and</strong> suggested that it is not important<br />
since it is not legally binding. Kucinich asked for injunctive relief from the 5 th circuit,<br />
but failed to get it <strong>and</strong> he did not appear on the Texas ballot in March. He also asked for<br />
injunctive relief from the U.S. Supreme Court, but he did not get that either. His lawsuit<br />
remains alive <strong>and</strong> he is asking the 5 th circuit to rule that the party’s Bylaw is illegitimate.<br />
The case is called Kucinich v Texas Democratic Party.<br />
The Nevada Democratic Party won a lawsuit filed by a voter who challenged the<br />
party’s decision to establish presidential caucus meeting places in large hotel-casinos.<br />
Nevada state law governs presidential caucus procedures <strong>and</strong> does not provide for<br />
meeting places that are not based on a voter’s residence. The party set up the special<br />
caucuses to accommodate workers who were required to work during the evening hours<br />
when the caucuses were held. A federal court ruled that freedom of association provision<br />
of the First Amendment protects the party’s decision. This case was called Chesnut v<br />
Democratic Party of Nevada.<br />
The Florida Democratic Party <strong>and</strong> the national Democratic Party won a lawsuit<br />
filed by U.S. Senator Bill Nelson, <strong>and</strong> another lawsuit filed by an ordinary voter. Both<br />
lawsuits challenged the party’s decision not to seat Florida delegates at the national<br />
convention. The Nelson lawsuit was filed in the Northern District, <strong>and</strong> when Senator<br />
Nelson lost the case, he did not appeal. The other lawsuit, DiMaio v Democratic<br />
National Committee <strong>and</strong> Florida Democratic Party, lost in the Middle District of Florida.<br />
On March 21, 2008, the 11 th circuit affirmed the lower court decision which was based on<br />
st<strong>and</strong>ing. However, the 11 th circuit said the voter is free to file a new case which should<br />
cure his st<strong>and</strong>ing problem.<br />
<strong>Political</strong> parties lost an election law decision in the U.S. Supreme Court on March<br />
18, 2008. That case, Washington State v Washington State Republican Party, had been<br />
filed in U.S. District Court in 2005. The lawsuit had been filed by the Republican,<br />
Democratic, <strong>and</strong> Libertarian Parties, to challenge the “top-two” primary initiative passed<br />
by the voters of Washington state in November 2004. Because the U.S. District Court<br />
had ruled the “top-two” system unconstitutional in 2005, <strong>and</strong> because the 9 th circuit had<br />
agreed in 2006, the “top-two” system has never been tried in Washington. The U.S.<br />
Supreme Court said that the system does not, on its face, violate the associational rights<br />
of political parties. It noted that the system may yet be shown to violate those rights, but<br />
until it is tried, courts won’t have enough evidence to decide the case.<br />
That system provides that all c<strong>and</strong>idates run on the same primary ballot in August (for all<br />
federal <strong>and</strong> state office except president). Then, only the two c<strong>and</strong>idates who poll the<br />
most votes, <strong>and</strong> the second-most votes, may appear on the November ballot.<br />
The “top-two” law provides that c<strong>and</strong>idates may express their party preference on<br />
ballots, but that no one should assume that this means that the political parties approve of<br />
c<strong>and</strong>idates who say they “prefer” that particular party. The U.S. Supreme Court said that
12<br />
since the Washington election system does not involve nomination by political parties,<br />
therefore the parties can not complain that they have lost the right to control their own<br />
nominations process. In effect, there is no longer a party nominations process in<br />
Washington state (except for presidential electors <strong>and</strong> delegates to presidential<br />
conventions). By contrast, the lower courts had ruled that since the system does place<br />
party labels on ballots, therefore the system suggests that parties do nominate c<strong>and</strong>idates,<br />
<strong>and</strong> therefore party associational rights are still implicated. The Washington Republican<br />
Party has already filed an amended complaint against the “top-two” system, to transform<br />
its original lawsuit into an “as applied” lawsuit, so it is clear that litigation over the<br />
Washington system will continue for some time.<br />
Other Areas of Election Law Litigation<br />
On January 9, 2008, the U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments in a case<br />
involving whether states may require voters at the polls to show government photo<br />
identification in order to vote at the polls. No decision has been released in Crawford v<br />
Marion County Election Board. For the most part, state legislatures are not enacting new<br />
laws on this subject, <strong>and</strong> new lawsuits are not being filed on this subject while the nation<br />
awaits the decision.<br />
The only ballot access decision of note during the October 2007-March 2008<br />
period was from the 6 th circuit which, Citizens for Tax Reform v Deters, struck down an<br />
Ohio law that made it illegal for initiative proponents to pay circulators on a per-signature<br />
basis.The court noted that initiative proponents had presented credible evidence that the<br />
law would cost them an additional $300,000. The evidence showed that petitioners who<br />
are paid per signature are more productive than petitioners who are paid by the hour.<br />
Minor parties won four lawsuits against discriminatory state laws that relate to<br />
campaign assistance from governments, during the last six months. In New Hampshire<br />
<strong>and</strong> Michigan, minor parties won rulings striking down laws providing the government<br />
should give a free list of the voters to the major parties, but not other parties. In New<br />
Hampshire, the case was in state court <strong>and</strong> is called Libertarian Party of New Hampshire<br />
v Gardner. In Michigan, the case was in federal court <strong>and</strong> is called Green Party of<br />
Michigan v L<strong>and</strong>.<br />
In Connecticut, a U.S. District Court issued a 49-page ruling on March 20, 2008,<br />
suggesting that the Connecticut public funding law, enacted in 2005, is apt to be held<br />
unconstitutional. The case is Green Party of Connecticut v Garfield. The Court denied<br />
the state’s motion for summary judgment, <strong>and</strong> said a trial will be held to establish if the<br />
law is constitutional. The law provides that all c<strong>and</strong>idates for state office who want<br />
public funding must raise small contributions from many contributors. The amount of<br />
contributors is the same for all c<strong>and</strong>idates. However, if the c<strong>and</strong>idate is not a member of<br />
a party that polled 20 percent for Governor at the last election, <strong>and</strong> if the c<strong>and</strong>idate wants<br />
the full amount of public funding, he or she must submit a petition signed by 20 percent<br />
of the last vote cast for that office.<br />
Connecticut argued that it is constitutional to make public funding more difficult<br />
for people who are not Democrats <strong>and</strong> Republicans because the U.S. Supreme Court in<br />
1976 had upheld a federal law that gives general election public funding to political<br />
parties’ presidential campaign committees if that party polled 5 percent in the last<br />
presidential election. New parties <strong>and</strong> independent c<strong>and</strong>idates who were not eligible for
13<br />
the funding before the election could receive such funding after the election if they polled<br />
5%. But the Connecticut court said that the U.S. Supreme Court decision from 1976,<br />
Buckley v Valeo, does not settle the issue. The Connecticut court pointed out that<br />
presidential general elections in the U.S. are almost always very competitive. However,<br />
most Connecticut state legislative races are not competitive; in most districts, the seat is<br />
“safe” for one of the two major parties. Yet the Connecticut public funding system<br />
makes public funding readily available to the weaker of the two major parties, in these<br />
uncompetitive districts.<br />
Finally, on the subject of c<strong>and</strong>idate eligibility to run for Congress, a Minnesota<br />
state court in Rice County ruled on January 18, 2008, in Richards v Windschitl that a<br />
convict serving time in prison may run for Congress. This decision is consistent with the<br />
1995 U.S. Supreme Court decision in U.S. Term Limits v Thornton which held that states<br />
may not add to the constitutional qualifications for people to run for Congress. Even<br />
though individuals may not be able to vote, if they are old enough, <strong>and</strong> citizens, <strong>and</strong><br />
residents of the state they wish to represent, they may not be barred from running if they<br />
show a modicum of support.<br />
FEDERAL ELECTION COMMISSION<br />
The Commission on August 31, 2007 published notice of proposed rulemaking in<br />
the Federal Register seeking public comment on proposed changes to the Commission<br />
regulations pertaining to electioneering communications. The notice was a response to<br />
the U.S. Supreme Court’s June 25, 2007 decision in Federal Election Commission v.<br />
Wisconsin Right to Life, Incorporated (127 S.Ct. 2652, 168 L.Ed.2d 309) relating to<br />
Wisconsin right to Life, Incorporated use of its own general treasury funds, which<br />
included corporation contributions, to pay for broadcast advertisements that referred to<br />
the two U.S. Senators from Wisconsin, one of whom was identified as a c<strong>and</strong>idate for<br />
federal office in the election. The court opined that because the advertisements were not<br />
the “functional equivalent of express advocacy,” the prohibition on corporate or labor<br />
organization funding of electioneering communications was unconstitutional as applied<br />
to the plaintiff’s advertisements. The court added a communication is the “functional<br />
equivalent of express advocacy” only if it “is susceptible of no reasonable interpretation<br />
other than as an appeal to vote for or against a specific c<strong>and</strong>idate.<br />
The text of the proposed rules is available in the Federal Register (72 FR 50261)<br />
<strong>and</strong> is posted on the Commissions web site at http://fec.gov/law/law_rulemakings.shtml<br />
The Commission on December 14, 2007, approved modifications of the rules governing<br />
the funding of electioneering communications by corporations <strong>and</strong> labor organization <strong>and</strong><br />
to apply the reporting <strong>and</strong> disclaimer requirements to electioneering communications<br />
made by corporations <strong>and</strong> labor organizations. A new section (11 CFR 114.15) provides a<br />
general exemption from the prohibition on corporate <strong>and</strong> labor organization funding of<br />
electioneering communications unless the communication is susceptible of no reasonable<br />
interpretation other than as an appeal to vote for or against a clearly identified federal<br />
c<strong>and</strong>idate.<br />
The full text of the final rule <strong>and</strong> explanation <strong>and</strong> justification is available in the<br />
Federal Register (72 FR 72899) <strong>and</strong> also is posted on the Commission’s web site<br />
http.//www.fec.gov/law/law_rulemaking.shtml#ec07.
14<br />
Congress enacted <strong>and</strong> president George w. Bush signed on September 14, 2007,<br />
the Honest Leadership <strong>and</strong> Open Government Act of 2007 (PL. 110-81, 121 Stat. 735, 2<br />
U.S.C.§1601) amending House <strong>and</strong> Senate Ethics Rules <strong>and</strong> the Federal election<br />
Campaign Act. Amendments to the latter act introduces new disclosure requirements for<br />
certain committees that receive bundled contributions from lobbyists <strong>and</strong> committees<br />
established or controlled by any lobbyist <strong>and</strong> new rules relating to travel on private jet<br />
aircraft. The law requires c<strong>and</strong>idates’ authorized committees, leadership political action<br />
committees, <strong>and</strong> party committees to disclose the name, address, employer of, <strong>and</strong> the<br />
bundled contribution amount credited to, each lobbyist (or lobbyist’s committee) who<br />
provided the committee with bundled contributions aggregating in excess of $15,000<br />
during specified time periods.<br />
The commission on December 20, 2007, certified $19,287,504.65 in federal<br />
matching funds to seven presidential c<strong>and</strong>idates (Joseph Biden, Christopher Dodd, John<br />
Edwards, Duncan Hunter, Dennis Kucinich, John McCain, <strong>and</strong> Thomas Tancredo) for the<br />
2008 election. Other c<strong>and</strong>idates declined to participate in the matching fund program.<br />
The presidential public funding program, however, lacks sufficient funds to make the<br />
payments.<br />
On December 20, 2007, the commission amended its written rules for the conduct<br />
of meetings to provide for circumstances when the commission has fewer than four<br />
members. Currently, the commission has only two members. The amended rules were<br />
published in the Federal Register on January 30, 2008 (73 FR 5569) <strong>and</strong> are available on<br />
the commission’s web site:<br />
http://www.fec.gov/law/cfr/ej_compilation/2008/notice_2008-01.pdf<br />
The commission reported a 1.5 percent increase in the number of federally registered<br />
political action committees (PACs) from 4,168 to 4,234 during the second half of 2007.<br />
Corporate PACs continue to be the largest category with 1,601 committees, an increase<br />
of 15. Labor PACs remained constant at 273, but trade/member/health PACs declined by<br />
1 to 925.<br />
The commission issued several advisory opinions.<br />
Advisory Opinion 2007-9 provides the Kerry-Edwards 2004 General Legal <strong>and</strong><br />
Compliance Fund may reimburse the Kerry-Edwards 2004 Incorporated Presidential<br />
Campaign Committee for the portion of its advertising expenses dedicated to compliance<br />
with the “st<strong>and</strong>-by-your-ad” provision of the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002.<br />
Advisory Opinion 2007-10 holds a c<strong>and</strong>idate’s committee may not recognize the<br />
corporate employers of individual contributors at a golf tournament fundraiser because<br />
the use of the corporation’s name, trademark, or service mark would result in the<br />
corporation facilitation of contributions which are prohibited by the Federal Election<br />
Campaign Act.<br />
Advisory Opinion 2007-16 holds the <strong>American</strong> Kennel Club (AKC) <strong>and</strong> its<br />
voting clubs <strong>and</strong> accredited clubs are membership organizations under the Federal<br />
Election Campaign Act <strong>and</strong> commission regulations, <strong>and</strong> the voting clubs <strong>and</strong> the<br />
accredited clubs are affiliated with AKC. Therefore, any separate segregated fund the<br />
AKC establishes may solicit contributions from the individual members of its affiliated<br />
voting clubs <strong>and</strong> accredited clubs.<br />
Advisory Opinion 2007-18 authorizes U.S. Representative Charles Rangel’s<br />
principal campaign committee or his leadership political action committee to pay for the
15<br />
commissioning of an official portrait of the representatives that will be donated to the<br />
U.S. House of representatives.<br />
Advisory Opinion 2007-19 stipulates a non-profit 501(c)(4) corporation qualifies<br />
as a membership organization <strong>and</strong> individuals selected to be members of that<br />
organization qualify as “members” for purposes of the Federal Election Campaign Act.<br />
Hence, the organization may solicit those individuals for contributions to a separate<br />
segregated fund established by the organization.<br />
Advisory Opinion 2007-22 provides Jim Hurysz for Congress may receive<br />
volunteer services <strong>and</strong> professional services from Canadian citizens <strong>and</strong> may use its<br />
campaign funds to pay for c<strong>and</strong>idate travel to Canada in order to gather campaign-related<br />
information. The committee may not accept elections materials donated by Canadian<br />
campaigns, but may purchase the materials at fair market value. Mr. Hurysz also may<br />
use his personal funds to pay for c<strong>and</strong>idate travel to Canada <strong>and</strong> to obtain information<br />
from Canadian citizens.<br />
Advisory Opinion 2007-24 allows the campaign committees of Jim Burkee for<br />
Congress (Republican) <strong>and</strong> Jeff Walz for Congress (Democrat) may engage jointly in<br />
fundraising <strong>and</strong> campaigning activities provided the committees use an appropriate<br />
payment method for each type of activity, <strong>and</strong> otherwise follow the limits, prohibitions,<br />
<strong>and</strong> other requirements of the Federal election Campaign Act.<br />
Advisory Opinion 2007-28 provides U.S. Representatives Kevin McCarthy <strong>and</strong><br />
Devin Nunes may, in addition to soliciting funds from federally permissible sources <strong>and</strong><br />
not exceeding the contribution limits for individuals <strong>and</strong> political committees, may solicit<br />
funds from individuals, subject to a $20,000 calendar year limit, for one or more<br />
independently run ballot measure committees in connection with the qualification <strong>and</strong><br />
passage of a redistricting initiative.<br />
Advisory Opinion 2007-34 holds a federal c<strong>and</strong>idate’s appearance on a billboard<br />
endorsing a nonfederal c<strong>and</strong>idate is not a coordinated communication <strong>and</strong> may be paid<br />
for with nonfederal funds.<br />
BOOK REVIEWS<br />
Editor: Richard Vengroff<br />
Kennesaw State University<br />
Kennesaw, Georgia 30144<br />
Telephone: (770) 423-6174<br />
E-Mail: Richard_Vengroff@kennesaw.edu<br />
Section members with forthcoming books should notify the book editor to facilitate the<br />
speedy review of books.<br />
Rein Taagepera, Predicting Party Sizes: The Logic of Simple Electoral Systems. Oxford<br />
<strong>and</strong> New York: University of Oxford Press, 2007. xxii, 314 pp. ISBN: 078-0-19-<br />
928774-1. Hardback, $84.00.<br />
Predicting Party Sizes is a testament to Rein Taagepera’s seminal contribution to<br />
cumulative theory development in comparative <strong>electoral</strong> <strong>systems</strong> research. It builds on
16<br />
but goes well beyond Seats <strong>and</strong> Votes (Taagepera <strong>and</strong> Shugart 1989) because of<br />
substantial advances since the publication of that classic in our underst<strong>and</strong>ing of the<br />
relationship between <strong>electoral</strong> <strong>systems</strong> <strong>and</strong> party <strong>systems</strong>. The book represents the<br />
culmination of almost four decades of painstaking research into unpacking, extending <strong>and</strong><br />
formalizing the Duvergerian macro-agenda with the goal of developing a parsimonious<br />
model of <strong>electoral</strong> <strong>systems</strong> that can predict the number <strong>and</strong> size of political parties. That<br />
research began with Taagepera’s 1969 MA thesis on “The Seat-Vote Equation” at the<br />
University of Delaware, which he completed four years after earning a doctorate in<br />
physics also at the University of Delaware. It is thus no coincidence that Taagepera’s<br />
theory-building effort has embodied the rigorous analytical method of the hard sciences.<br />
In Predicting Party Sizes, Taagepera draws on his basic research to also delve into the<br />
realm of applied politics by offering practical advice to practitioners about the<br />
institutional design of <strong>electoral</strong> <strong>systems</strong> they should adopt. This bold step is carefully<br />
calibrated, however, to the predictions of the analytical models <strong>and</strong> the advice is thus<br />
tempered with emphasis on what is feasible <strong>and</strong> not necessarily what is desirable, given<br />
the political goals politicians wish to achieve. This incursion into applied scholarship<br />
was motivated by the appreciation of the severe time constraints on practitioners’ ability<br />
to consider all the possible consequences of institutional choice that Taagepera gained<br />
through his own venture into politics, first as a presidential c<strong>and</strong>idate in Estonia (“ending<br />
a respectable third”) <strong>and</strong> then as the founding chair of a political party that, after his<br />
tenure, won parliamentary seats before “crashing” (p. ix).<br />
In contrast to the concern in much of the literature with the triviality that “institutions<br />
matter” (as if there was any doubt!), Taagepera begins with a succinct exposition of<br />
“How Electoral Systems Matter (Ch. 1) that appropriately emphasizes the remote effects<br />
of <strong>electoral</strong> <strong>systems</strong> on the structure of party <strong>systems</strong> via their direct effect in restricting<br />
seat distributions <strong>and</strong> subsequent effect on the vote distributions of political parties. But<br />
Taagepera’s also draws attention to the exogenous conditions that limit the impact of<br />
<strong>electoral</strong> <strong>systems</strong>: “An excellent institutional framework cannot compensate for flawed<br />
political culture, but inadequate institutions can make it worse” (p. 5). Unwittingly,<br />
Taagepera highlights an important but unacknowledged insight of institutionalism, that<br />
the hallmark of good institutional analysis is an appreciation of both the limits of such<br />
analysis <strong>and</strong> the bounds within which institutions shape political outcomes.<br />
This modest approach helps to buttress Taagepera’s preference for the analytical rigor<br />
<strong>and</strong> method of physics in developing the parsimonious predictive model of simple<br />
<strong>electoral</strong> <strong>systems</strong>. To ensure that the substantive <strong>and</strong> technical complexity of the analysis<br />
does not obscure its practical utility, Taagepera wisely begins each chapter with a block<br />
of bulleted points “For the Practitioner of Politics,” which present in plain English the<br />
key lessons of the chapter as guidelines for choosing <strong>electoral</strong> <strong>systems</strong>. The chapters are<br />
themselves written in an engaging style with clear exposition of the mathematical<br />
formulas, graphs <strong>and</strong> numerical data presented to clarify the theoretical arguments. The<br />
more complex technical materials, such as proofs of equation, which should be of<br />
interests to specialists, are appropriately consigned to an appendix to each chapter.
17<br />
Part I of the book on “Rules <strong>and</strong> Tools” offers a useful review of the typology <strong>and</strong> key<br />
institutional components of <strong>electoral</strong> <strong>systems</strong>. The discussion covers familiar ground –<br />
the origins of <strong>electoral</strong> <strong>systems</strong> (Ch. 2), simple <strong>and</strong> complex <strong>electoral</strong> <strong>systems</strong> (Ch. 3), the<br />
number <strong>and</strong> balance of political parties (Ch. 4), deviations from proportionality (Ch. 5),<br />
<strong>and</strong> the degree of openness of <strong>electoral</strong> <strong>systems</strong> to small parties (Ch. 6) – <strong>and</strong> sets the<br />
stage for Part II on the “Duvergerian Macro-Agenda: How Simple Electoral Systems<br />
Affect Party Sizes <strong>and</strong> Politics.” This is the substantive core of the book in which<br />
Taagepera draws on recent advances <strong>and</strong> his prodigious contribution in elaborating<br />
Duverger’s central argument concerning the relationship between <strong>electoral</strong> <strong>systems</strong> <strong>and</strong><br />
party <strong>systems</strong>. Chapter 7 presents a concise exposition of the Duvergerian agenda for<br />
simple <strong>electoral</strong> <strong>systems</strong>, “those that include no features beyond assembly size, a fairly<br />
uniform magnitude for districts, <strong>and</strong> seat allocation according to a usual PR formula<br />
(which boils down to FPTP when M = 1)” (p.110). This parsimonious model is<br />
employed to predict the number of seat-winning parties <strong>and</strong> the largest seat share (Ch. 8),<br />
the seat shares of all parties <strong>and</strong> the effective number of parties (Ch. 9), <strong>and</strong> the mean<br />
duration of cabinets (Ch. 10). Shifting gears from prediction to application, Taagepera<br />
presents an intriguing discussion of how to simplify complex <strong>electoral</strong> <strong>systems</strong> (Ch. 11),<br />
in which he employs the notion of an “output-based effective magnitude” to calculate<br />
which simple <strong>electoral</strong> system is likely to produce, on average, the observed value of<br />
some output, for example, the effective number of parties, of an existing complex<br />
<strong>electoral</strong> system. In Ch. 12, he employs the now classic cube root law of assembly size to<br />
clarify the logic of designing an optimum-sized assembly. In Ch. 13, Taagepera extends<br />
his initial exposition in his MA thesis of the “law of minority attrition” in FPTP <strong>systems</strong><br />
to PR <strong>systems</strong>. The law says that the under-<strong>representation</strong> of social minorities in lowerlevel<br />
political positions (e.g. city councils) will, on average, be replicated in higher-level<br />
positions (e.g. national legislatures). Ch. 14 presents a model for converting seats into<br />
votes that may facilitate more analytically precise calculations of the effective number of<br />
<strong>electoral</strong> parties, but this model is presented with only illustrative examples <strong>and</strong> will<br />
require further testing with empirical data.<br />
Part III on “Implications <strong>and</strong> Broader Agenda” begins with a discussion of the<br />
relationship between thresholds of <strong>representation</strong> <strong>and</strong> the number of pertinent parties (Ch.<br />
15). Because the inputs that determine the effective number of <strong>electoral</strong> parties include<br />
institutional variables as well exogenous (structural) <strong>and</strong> the more contingent strategic<br />
variables, the models in Chs. 14 <strong>and</strong> 15 do not have accurate predictive capability <strong>and</strong><br />
thus require further refinements. Ch. 16 extends the logic of simple <strong>electoral</strong> <strong>systems</strong> to<br />
seat allocation in federal chambers <strong>and</strong> the assemblies of the European Union. Ch. 17<br />
concludes with some realistic (read feasible) answers to the question “What Can We<br />
Expect from Electoral Laws?”<br />
The reliance on cumulative theory building <strong>and</strong> analytical rigor to develop a successful<br />
predictive model of simple <strong>electoral</strong> system <strong>and</strong> the use of this model to clarify future<br />
research directions for completing the Duvergerian agenda (e.g. Chs. 14 <strong>and</strong> 15) make<br />
Predicting Party Sizes an important book. The use of this model as a guide for offering<br />
practical advice on <strong>electoral</strong> <strong>systems</strong> choice also makes it an innovative book. The focus<br />
on a simple <strong>electoral</strong> system model defined by only three variables, of course, ignores the
18<br />
complexity of most <strong>electoral</strong> <strong>systems</strong> in practice, but the choice is analytically <strong>and</strong><br />
practically sound. Analytically, it facilitates the construction of a parsimonious<br />
predictive model <strong>and</strong> helps to clarify the logic, dynamics <strong>and</strong> outcomes of <strong>electoral</strong><br />
<strong>systems</strong>, not a mean feat because this is invaluable information for constructing<br />
predictive models of more complex <strong>electoral</strong> <strong>systems</strong>, such as, for example, mixed<br />
parallel <strong>and</strong> compensatory <strong>systems</strong> as well as other institutional permutations.<br />
Practically, it helps to identify for time-constrained practitioners the core institutional<br />
components of <strong>electoral</strong> <strong>systems</strong> <strong>and</strong> clarify their consequences for party <strong>systems</strong> <strong>and</strong><br />
cabinet duration.<br />
An innovative variable that underscores the predictive power of the simple <strong>electoral</strong><br />
<strong>systems</strong> model is vintage Taagepera. Inspired by Colomer’s “micro-mega” rule – “the<br />
small prefer the large, <strong>and</strong> the large prefer the small,” (Colomer 2004: 3) – the seat<br />
product of simple <strong>electoral</strong> <strong>systems</strong> (M F S) is obtained by multiplying the assembly size<br />
(S) by the number of seats in the average district (or the mean district magnitude M), with<br />
M modulated by the seat allocation “formula exponent” (F). The predictive power of the<br />
seat product rests on the fact that it is a combined summary expression of the three<br />
components of simple <strong>electoral</strong> <strong>systems</strong>, assembly size, district magnitude <strong>and</strong> <strong>electoral</strong><br />
formula. It represents the “comprehensive outcome of (Taagepera) trying to make sense<br />
of <strong>electoral</strong> <strong>systems</strong> for over 40 years” (p. 92).<br />
Simple <strong>electoral</strong> <strong>systems</strong> predict average outcomes. This may not be entirely satisfactory<br />
if one is looking for predictive precision, but it is consistent with the requirements of<br />
conceptual parsimony <strong>and</strong> analytical rigor that facilitate the development of predictive<br />
models. Moreover, the predictions derived from the simple <strong>electoral</strong> system model<br />
conform, on average, to observed global patterns. Taagepera’s deductive approach thus<br />
holds up well against empirical evidence.<br />
Seats <strong>and</strong> Votes is one the most widely cited books <strong>and</strong> has inspired many of the best<br />
works in comparative <strong>electoral</strong> <strong>systems</strong> research. But its non-statistical approach has not<br />
been widely emulated in the field. Predicting Party Sizes may very well suffer the same<br />
paradoxical fate. There is no small irony in this. Within its narrowly defined focus on<br />
simple <strong>electoral</strong> <strong>systems</strong>, it has achieved the scientific ideals of cumulative theory<br />
building <strong>and</strong> prediction that motivated the behavioral revolution in political science over<br />
fifty years ago. But this accomplishment has come at a time when the emphasis in<br />
political science has shifted toward more context-sensitive theorizing. But even here,<br />
Predicting Party Sizes contains important insights. The unfinished Duvergerian agenda<br />
noted by Taagepera involves, among other things, clarifying the microfoundations of<br />
simple <strong>electoral</strong> <strong>systems</strong>, which requires tackling the thorniest of contextual variables,<br />
political culture <strong>and</strong> its relationship to the psychological effects of <strong>electoral</strong> <strong>systems</strong> <strong>and</strong><br />
the resulting strategic calculations of political actors. And if Taagepera’s disciplined<br />
approach motivates <strong>and</strong> informs theory-building in this endeavor, then Predicting Party<br />
Sizes could share another fate with Seats <strong>and</strong> Votes. In 1999, Seats <strong>and</strong> Votes won the<br />
George H. Hallett award (Disclosure: I chaired the award committee). It should not a be surprise if<br />
Predicting Party Sizes is a strong contender for the same award a decade from now
19<br />
Colomer, Josep. 2004. “The Strategy <strong>and</strong> History of Electoral Systems Choice,” pp. 3-78. In<br />
Josep Colomer (eds). H<strong>and</strong>book of Electoral Systems Choice. New York: Palgrave.<br />
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Electoral Systems. New Have: Yale University Press.<br />
Shaheen Mozaffar<br />
Bridgewater State College<br />
BIBLIOGRAPHY ON REPRESENTATION AND ELECTORAL SYSTEMS<br />
September 1007-March 2008<br />
Erik S. Herron<br />
University of Kansas<br />
E-Mail: eherron@ku.edu<br />
Books (English Language)<br />
E-Voting <strong>and</strong> Identity First FIDIS International Conference, Vote-ID 2007, Bochum, Germany, October 4-<br />
5, 2007, Revised Selected Papers. 2008. New York: Springer.<br />
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Philippines. Diliman, Quezon City: CenPEG Books.<br />
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DeLay. Austin: University of Texas Press.<br />
Blais, André. 2008. To Keep or to Change First Past the Post? The Politics of Electoral Reform. Oxford:<br />
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Bowler, Shaun <strong>and</strong> Amihai Glazer. 2008. Direct Democracy's Impact on <strong>American</strong> <strong>Political</strong> Institutions.<br />
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Brinkerhoff, Derick W. 2007. Governance in Post-Conflict Societies: Rebuilding Fragile States. New<br />
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Brug, Wouter v. d., C. v. d. Eijk, <strong>and</strong> Mark N. Franklin. 2007. The Economy <strong>and</strong> the Vote: Economic<br />
Conditions <strong>and</strong> Elections in Fifteen Countries. New York: Cambridge University Press.<br />
Brunell, Thomas L. 2008. Redistricting <strong>and</strong> Representation: Why Competitive Elections Are Bad for<br />
America. New York: Routledge.<br />
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1960. Lawrence: University Press of Kansas.<br />
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20<br />
Cotta, Maurizio <strong>and</strong> Heinrich Best. 2007. Democratic Representation in Europe: Diversity, Change, <strong>and</strong><br />
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Institutions Condition Election Results. New York: Cambridge University Press.<br />
Espino, Rodolfo, David L. Leal, <strong>and</strong> Kenneth J. Meier. 2007. Latino Politics: Identity, Mobilization, <strong>and</strong><br />
Representation. Charlottesville: University of Virginia Press.<br />
Farrell, David M. <strong>and</strong> Roger Scully. 2007. Representing Europe's Citizens? Electoral Institutions <strong>and</strong> the<br />
Failure of Parliamentary Representation. Oxford: Oxford University Press.<br />
Fowler, James H. <strong>and</strong> Oleg Smirnov. 2007. M<strong>and</strong>ates, Parties, <strong>and</strong> Voters: How Elections Shape the<br />
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Its Aftermath. Canberra, A.C.T: Asia Pacific Press.<br />
Gallagher, Michael <strong>and</strong> Michael Marsh. 2008. How Irel<strong>and</strong> Voted 2007: The Full Story of Irel<strong>and</strong>'s<br />
General Election. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.<br />
Greene, Kenneth F. 2007. Why Dominant Parties Lose: Mexico's Democratization in Comparative<br />
Perspective. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.<br />
Gunther, Richard, Hans-Jürgen Puhle, <strong>and</strong> José R. Montero. 2007. Democracy, Intermediation, <strong>and</strong> Voting<br />
on Four Continents. Oxford: Oxford University Press.<br />
Hainsworth, Paul. 2008. The Extreme Right in Western Europe. New York: Routledge.<br />
Hazama, Yasushi. 2007. Electoral Volatility in Turkey. Chiba: Institute of Developing Economies.<br />
He, Baogang. 2007. Rural Democracy in China. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.<br />
Henderson, Ana. 2007. Voting Rights Act Reauthorization of 2006: Perspectives on Democracy,<br />
Participation, <strong>and</strong> Power. Berkeley: Berkeley Public Policy Press.<br />
Hillygus, D. S. <strong>and</strong> Todd G. Shields. 2008. The Persuadable Voter: Wedge Issues in Presidential<br />
Campaigns. Princeton: Princeton University Press.<br />
Jankowski, Nick. 2007. The Internet <strong>and</strong> National Elections: A Comparative Study of Web Campaigning.<br />
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Levine, Stephen I. <strong>and</strong> Nigel S. Roberts. 2007. The Baubles of Office: The New Zeal<strong>and</strong> General Election<br />
of 2005. Wellington N.Z.: Victoria University Press.<br />
Lijphart, Arend. 2007. Thinking About Democracy: Power Sharing <strong>and</strong> Majority Rule in Theory <strong>and</strong><br />
Practice. New York: Routledge.<br />
Lockerbie, Brad. 2008. Do Voters Look to the Future? Economics <strong>and</strong> Elections. Albany: State University<br />
of New York Press.<br />
Lundberg, Thomas C. 2007. Proportional Representation <strong>and</strong> the Constituency Role in Britain. New York:<br />
Palgrave Macmillan.<br />
Maravall, José M. <strong>and</strong> Ignacio Sanchez-Cuenca. 2008. Controlling Governments: Voters, Institutions, <strong>and</strong><br />
Accountability. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.<br />
McCool, Daniel, Susan M. Olson, <strong>and</strong> Jennifer L. Robinson. 2007. Native Vote: <strong>American</strong> Indians, the<br />
Voting Rights Act, <strong>and</strong> the Right to Vote. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.<br />
Mendis, Dushyantha. 2008. Electoral Processes <strong>and</strong> Governance in South Asia. Thous<strong>and</strong> Oaks: Sage<br />
Publications.<br />
Pilon, Dennis. 2007. The Politics of Voting: Reforming Canada's Electoral System. Toronto: Emond<br />
Montgomery Publications.<br />
Poundstone, William. 2008. Gaming the Vote: Why Elections Aren't Fair (<strong>and</strong> What We Can Do About It).<br />
New York: Hill <strong>and</strong> Wang.<br />
Roy, Ramashray <strong>and</strong> Paul Wallace. 2007. India's 2004 Elections: Grass-Roots <strong>and</strong> National Perspectives.<br />
Thous<strong>and</strong> Oaks: Sage Publications.<br />
Ryan, Louise <strong>and</strong> Margaret Ward. 2007. Irish Women <strong>and</strong> the Vote: Becoming Citizens. Dublin: Irish<br />
Academic Press.<br />
Schaffer, Frederic C. 2007. Elections for Sale: The Causes <strong>and</strong> Consequences of Vote Buying. Boulder:<br />
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21<br />
Democracies. New York: New York University Press.<br />
Steinbrecher, Markus, S<strong>and</strong>ra Huber, <strong>and</strong> Hans Rattinger. 2007. Turnout in Germany: Citizen Participation<br />
in State, Federal, <strong>and</strong> European Elections Since 1979. Baden-Baden: Nomos.<br />
Streb, Matthew J. 2008. Rethinking <strong>American</strong> Electoral Democracy. New York: Routledge.<br />
Taagepera, Rein. 2007. Predicting Party Sizes the Logic of Simple Electoral Systems. Oxford: Oxford<br />
University Press.<br />
Torjesen, Stina <strong>and</strong> Indra Řverl<strong>and</strong>. 2007. International Election Observers in Post-Soviet Azerbaijan:<br />
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Tremblay, Manon. 2007. Women <strong>and</strong> Legislative Representation: Electoral Systems, <strong>Political</strong> Parties, <strong>and</strong><br />
Sex Quotas. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.<br />
Vreese, C. H. d. 2007. The Dynamics of Referendum Campaigns: An International Perspective. New York:<br />
Palgrave Macmillan.<br />
Wolbrecht, Christina, Karen Beckwith, <strong>and</strong> Lisa Baldez. 2008. <strong>Political</strong> Women <strong>and</strong> <strong>American</strong> Democracy.<br />
New York: Cambridge University Press.<br />
Zuckerman, Alan S., Josip Dasovic, <strong>and</strong> Jennifer Fitzgerald. 2007. Partisan Families the Social Logic of<br />
Bounded Partisanship in Germany <strong>and</strong> Britain. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.<br />
Books (Non-English Language)<br />
IUrydychna Vidpovidal Nist Za Porushennia Zakonodavstva Pro Vybory Narodnykh Deputativ Ukraïny.<br />
2007. Kyiv: Parlaments'ke vydavnytstvo.<br />
Parlamentskie Vybory v Kazakhstane 2007. 2007. Moskva: Moskovskii gos. universitet. Istoricheskii<br />
fakul'tet.<br />
Vybory-2007--Novyi Etap v Razvitii Politicheskoi Sistemy Respubliki Kazakhstan. 2007. Almaty:<br />
Kazakhstanskii institut strategicheskikh issledovanii pri Prezidente Respubliki Kazakhstan.<br />
Zashchita Izbiratelnykh Prav Grazhdan v Khode Munitsipalnoi Reformy v Rostovskoi Oblasti (2004--2005<br />
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Andreescu, Marius. 2007. Principiul Proportionalitatii În Dreptul Constitutional. Bucuresti: Editura C.H.<br />
Beck.<br />
Andrushko, Petro P. 2007. Zlochyny Proty Vyborchykh Prav Hromadian Ta Ďkh Prava Braty Uchast u<br />
Referendumi Kryminal No-Pravova Kharakterystyka. Kyiv: KNT.<br />
`Atiyah, al-Tayyib H. 2007. Al-Intikhabat. al-Tab`ah 1 ed. al-Khartum: Ma`had Abhath al-Salam, Jami`at<br />
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Behnke, Joachim. 2007. Das Wahlsystem Der Bundesrepublik Deutschl<strong>and</strong> Logik, Technik Und Praxis Der<br />
Verhältniswahl. Baden-Baden: Nomos.<br />
Chernyshov, A. 2007. Vybory v Rossii--Vybor Dlia Rossii. Moskva: Globulus.<br />
Chon, Hak-son, Sang-u Chong, <strong>and</strong> Hyon-ch o. Kang. 2007. Son'Go Kwallyon Pomnyong Ui Pomnyong<br />
Yongo Wa Munjang Ui Munjechom Kwa Kaeson Pangan. Soul T`ukpyolsi: Han'guk Popche Yon'guwon.<br />
Davydovych, IA. V. <strong>and</strong> TSentral na vyborcha komisiia Ukraďny. 2007. Mizhnarodna Naukovo-<br />
Praktychna Konferentsiia "Vybory, 2006--Dosvid, Problemy, Perspektyvy": Vybory, 2006--Dosvid,<br />
Problemy, Perspektyvy Zbirnyk Materialiv Mizhnarodnoď Naukovo-Praktychnoď Konferentsiď Kyďv, 31<br />
Zhovtnia--1 Lystopada 2006 Roku. Kyiv: TSentral na vyborcha komisiia. Atika.<br />
Golovin, A. G. 2007. Izbiratelnoe Pravo Rossii Kurs Lektsii. Moskva: Norma.<br />
Guillemaut, André. 2007. Le Jeu Des 7 Familles Politiques Extrême Gauche, Parti Communiste, Les Verts,<br />
Parti Socialiste, UDF, UMP, Extrême Droite. Paris: Publibook.<br />
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Kim, Hon-t a. <strong>and</strong> Han'guk Sahoe Yoron Yon'guso. 2007. 17-Tae Taeson, Saeroun Seryok Kwa Noson Ui<br />
Tae Ch`Ungdol 12-Wol Taeson Kwa Ku Hu Ui Han'Guk Sahoe e Taehae Algo Sip`Un Yorogaji Koktul.<br />
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Aidt, Toke S. <strong>and</strong> Bianca Dallal. 2008. "Female Voting Power: The Contribution of Women’s Suffrage to<br />
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Aili Mari Tripp <strong>and</strong> Alice Kang. 2008. "The Global Impact of Quotas: On the Fast Track to Increased<br />
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Ansolabehere, Stephen, John M. Hansen, Shigeo Hirano, <strong>and</strong> James M. Snyder Jr. 2007. "The Incumbency<br />
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Antweiler, Werner. 2007. "Estimating Voter Migration in Canada Using Generalized Maximum Entropy."<br />
Electoral Studies 26(4):756-71.<br />
Arter, David. 2007. "The End of the Social Democratic Hegemony? The March 2007 Finnish General<br />
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Atkeson, Lonna R. <strong>and</strong> Kyle L. Saunders. 2007. "The Effect of Election Administration on Voter<br />
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Balkir, Canan. 2007. "The July 2007 Elections in Turkey: A Test for Democracy." Mediterranean Politics<br />
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Bardi, Luciano. 2007. "Electoral Change <strong>and</strong> Its Impact on the Party System in Italy." West European
23<br />
Politics 30(4):711-32.<br />
Bardi, Luciano <strong>and</strong> Peter Mair. 2008. "The Parameters of Party Systems." Party Politics 14(2):147-66.<br />
Barretto, Matt A. 2007. "Latino C<strong>and</strong>idates <strong>and</strong> the Mobilization of Latino Voters." <strong>American</strong> <strong>Political</strong><br />
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Barrow, Lynda K. 2007. "Party On? Politicians <strong>and</strong> Party Switching in Mexico." Politics 27(3):165-73.<br />
Battaglini, Marco, Rebecca Morton, <strong>and</strong> Thomas Palfrey. 2007. "Efficiency, Equity, <strong>and</strong> Timing of Voting<br />
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Beckwith, Karen <strong>and</strong> Kimberly Cowell-Meyers. 2007. "Sheer Numbers: Critical Representation Thresholds<br />
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Behnke, Joachim. 2007. "The Strange Phenomenon of Surplus Seats in the German Electoral System."<br />
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Bellucci, Paolo. 2008. " The Parliamentary Election in Italy, April 2006." Electoral Studies 27(1):185-90.<br />
Bereni, Laure. 2007. "French Feminists Renegotiate Republican Universalism: The Gender Parity<br />
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Bernhagen, Patrick <strong>and</strong> Michael Marsh. 2007. "The Partisan Effects of Low Turnout: Analyzing Vote<br />
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Berry, Christopher R. <strong>and</strong> William G. Howell. 2007. "Accountability <strong>and</strong> Local Elections: Rethinking<br />
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Birch, Sarah. 2007. "Electoral Systems <strong>and</strong> Electoral Misconduct." Comparative <strong>Political</strong> Studies<br />
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Bjorklund, Tor. 2007. "Unemployment <strong>and</strong> the Radical Right in Sc<strong>and</strong>inavia: Beneficial or Non-Beneficial<br />
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Blau, Adrian. 2008. "The Effective Number of Parties at Four Scales: Votes, Seats, Legislative Power <strong>and</strong><br />
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Bochsler, Daniel. 2008. "The Parliamentary Election in Serbia, 21 January 2007." Electoral Studies<br />
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Bogaards, Matthijs. 2008. "Dominant Party Systems <strong>and</strong> Electoral Volatility in Africa: A Comment on<br />
Mozaffar <strong>and</strong> Scarritt." Party Politics 14(1):113-30.<br />
Bogaards, Matthijs. 2007. "Measuring Democracy Through Election Outcomes: A Critique With African<br />
Data." Comparative <strong>Political</strong> Studies 40(10):1211-37.<br />
Borisyuk, Galina, Colin Rallings, Michael Thrasher, <strong>and</strong> Henk van der Kolk. 2007. "Voter Support for<br />
Minor Parties: Assessing the Social <strong>and</strong> <strong>Political</strong> Context of Voting at the 2004 European Elections in<br />
Greater London." Party Politics 13(6):669-93.<br />
Born, Richard. 2008. "Party Polarization <strong>and</strong> the Rise of Partisan Voting in U.S. House Elections."<br />
<strong>American</strong> Politics Research 36(1):62-84.<br />
Bowler, Shaun <strong>and</strong> Todd Donovan. 2007. "Reasoning About Institutional Change: Winners, Losers <strong>and</strong><br />
Support for Electoral Reforms." British Journal of <strong>Political</strong> <strong>Science</strong> 37(3):455-76.<br />
Br<strong>and</strong>t, Loren <strong>and</strong> Matthew A. Turner. 2007. "The Usefulness of Imperfect Elections: The Case of Village<br />
Elections in Rural China." Economics & Politics 19(3):453-80.<br />
Buchler, Justin. 2007. "The Statistical Properties of Competitive Districts: What the Central Limit Theorem<br />
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Buckley, Fiona, Neil Collins, <strong>and</strong> Theresa Reidy. 2007. "Ballot Paper Photographs <strong>and</strong> Low-Information<br />
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Burden, Barry C. 2007. "Ballot Regulations <strong>and</strong> Multiparty Politics in the States." PS: <strong>Political</strong> <strong>Science</strong> &<br />
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Call<strong>and</strong>er, Steven <strong>and</strong> Catherine H. Wilson. 2007. "Turnout, Polarization, <strong>and</strong> Duverger's Law." The<br />
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Calvo, Ernesto. 2007. "The Responsive Legislature: Public Opinion <strong>and</strong> Law Making in a Highly<br />
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26<br />
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