Technology foresight for Gas Turbines - Endesa Escuela de Energía
Technology foresight for Gas Turbines - Endesa Escuela de Energía
Technology foresight for Gas Turbines - Endesa Escuela de Energía
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<strong>Technology</strong> <strong><strong>for</strong>esight</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>Gas</strong> <strong>Turbines</strong><br />
Turbinas <strong>de</strong> <strong>Gas</strong>: estado actual <strong>de</strong> las tecnologías<br />
Dr. Tomás Alvarez<br />
Madrid 26 <strong>de</strong> Octubre <strong>de</strong> 2006
INDEX<br />
• I.- A brief history of turbomachinery.<br />
• II.- Chicken and the egg: <strong>Technology</strong> or market?.<br />
• III.- A vision of <strong>Gas</strong> Turbine <strong>Technology</strong>.<br />
• IV.- User´s point of view: lessons learnt.<br />
• V.- <strong>Gas</strong> Turbine market: Present and future.<br />
• VI.- Pathway to achive Advaced Thermal Power Plant.
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR GAS TURBINES<br />
A brief history of turbomachinery<br />
• Why didn´t the Romans make water turbines?<br />
They lacked an un<strong>de</strong>rstanding of hydrodynamics and<br />
mecanics, an un<strong>de</strong>rstanding humankind acquired over<br />
many centuries.
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR GAS TURBINES<br />
A brief history of turbomachinery<br />
• Why didn´t the Romans make gas-turbine engines?<br />
They had no need <strong>for</strong> them.
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR GAS TURBINES<br />
A brief history of turbomachinery<br />
• Why gas turbines?<br />
In their early attempts at flight human kind soon learned that<br />
the human body was totally ina<strong>de</strong>quate as a propulsion <strong>de</strong>vice.
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR GAS TURBINES<br />
A brief history of turbomachinery<br />
Combustion<br />
Bla<strong>de</strong> and<br />
Combustor cooling<br />
Per<strong>for</strong>mance<br />
Materials<br />
<strong>Technology</strong><br />
Themodynamic<br />
cycle<br />
Heat transfer<br />
Fuel technology<br />
Emissions<br />
Mechanical integrity<br />
Electronic control<br />
Fluidmechanics
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR GAS TURBINES<br />
Chiken and the Egg: <strong>Technology</strong> or Market?<br />
• Technological history is there<strong>for</strong>e the<br />
consequence of both,<br />
background and incentives <strong>for</strong> <strong>de</strong>velopment:<br />
Background<br />
lead to<br />
Incentives <strong>for</strong> <strong>de</strong>velopment<br />
<strong>Technology</strong> Push<br />
lead to<br />
<strong>Technology</strong> or market?<br />
Market Pull
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR GAS TURBINES<br />
World primary energy<br />
• World primary energy <strong>de</strong>mand<br />
Energy problems are as old as the Romans. They burned<br />
as much as 145kg of wood a day in large houses.<br />
Then ran out of wood. Imported it from 1600 km.<br />
Sound familiar?<br />
Finally, they started taking advantage of solar. Lesson learned:<br />
As one energy source runs short, others are found..
Market Pull<br />
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR GAS TURBINES<br />
Innovation drivers<br />
Centralized<br />
Generation<br />
Hybrid<br />
System<br />
Distributed<br />
Generation<br />
<strong>Technology</strong> Push
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR GAS TURBINES<br />
Distributed Generation<br />
”Local, small sized systems <strong>for</strong> energy conversion, production<br />
and storage as well as related services”<br />
Pearl Street Station
Nanoturbines<br />
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR GAS TURBINES<br />
<strong>Technology</strong> Push<br />
Microturbinas (natural gas, landfill gas,…)<br />
CHP and Tri-generation<br />
Small scale gasification <strong>for</strong> CHP<br />
Small scale bio-CHP<br />
Hybrid system (fuel cells/GT´s..)<br />
Hydrogen Compatibility
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR GAS TURBINES<br />
Centralized Generation
New Competitive situation<br />
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR GAS TURBINES<br />
Market Pull<br />
RAMD-S<br />
Per<strong>for</strong>mance<br />
Efficiency<br />
Time<br />
Emissions<br />
Life cycle cost
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR GAS TURBINES<br />
Land base GT´s history<br />
<strong>Gas</strong> turbine learning curve
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR GAS TURBINES<br />
Conventional (?) Thermal Power Plant<br />
Feed pumps<br />
Boiler<br />
10 metres<br />
Three stages<br />
Steam turbine
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR GAS TURBINES<br />
Main components in a gas turbine<br />
205 203 160 119 = 482MW = 277MW<br />
2.2 MW 1.7 MW 1.3 MW<br />
754 MJ/s<br />
Gross Net
Requirements to combustion chamber: chamber<br />
• Multifuel capability<br />
• High combustion effiency<br />
• High use reliability<br />
• Low pressure loss<br />
• Loss emissions<br />
• Nearly uni<strong>for</strong>m outlet temperature distribution<br />
Development of compressor:<br />
compressor<br />
• Lowflowlosses<br />
• Low vibrations<br />
• No stall, surge<br />
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR GAS TURBINES<br />
Main components in a gas turbine<br />
Development of turbines: turbines<br />
• Lowflowlosses<br />
• Optimized bla<strong>de</strong> cooling<br />
• Proved bla<strong>de</strong> materials<br />
Investigations of<br />
rotating annuli: annuli<br />
• Flow<br />
• Heat transfer
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR GAS TURBINES<br />
User requirements <strong>for</strong> power generation<br />
USERS NEEDS SUPPLIERS GOALS<br />
Low installed cost High specific power<br />
Low fuel consumption High efficiency<br />
Low maintenance High maintenability<br />
Low enviroment impact Low emissions<br />
Proven plant Structured <strong>de</strong>velopment<br />
Low CO2 emisions Adv. Cycles/High efficiency<br />
Fuel flexibility Advanced combustors<br />
Operational flexibility High operational reliability
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR GAS TURBINES<br />
User requirements <strong>for</strong> power generation<br />
DESIGN GOALS ACHIEVED BY:<br />
Progressive increase in turbine inlet temperature Higher specfic power<br />
Raising compressor pressure ratio Higher efficiency<br />
Higher exhaust temperature Increased cycle effiency<br />
Dry low NOx burners Lower emissions<br />
Advanced combustors Fluel flexibility<br />
Remote M&D centre (CBM) High <strong>de</strong>pendability (RAMD-S)<br />
Adv. cycles/High efficiency Lower CO2 emissions<br />
High efficiency & <strong>de</strong>pendability Lower Life Cycle Cost
∆T T1 =+80K<br />
∆η th =+0,81%<br />
∆η C =+1%<br />
∆η th =+0,48%<br />
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR GAS TURBINES<br />
Parameter study<br />
Temperature<br />
ratio<br />
Compressor<br />
effiency<br />
Increase in<br />
Efficiency<br />
of turbine<br />
∆η T =+1%<br />
∆η th =+0,70%<br />
Pressure<br />
ratio<br />
Cooling air<br />
mass flow<br />
∆л=+1<br />
∆η th =+0,35%<br />
∆µ 0 =+1%<br />
∆η th =-0,56%
ºC<br />
1600<br />
1500<br />
1400<br />
1300<br />
1200<br />
1100<br />
1000<br />
77<br />
7E/9E<br />
79<br />
81<br />
83<br />
85<br />
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR GAS TURBINES<br />
Presure ratio and RIT evolution<br />
7EA/9EC<br />
V84.2/V94.2<br />
87<br />
89<br />
7FA+<br />
9FA/7FA V84.3A<br />
501F/701F<br />
7F/9F<br />
V84.3 /V94.3A<br />
91<br />
93<br />
GT24/GT26<br />
GT13E2<br />
501D5A<br />
/701D<br />
95<br />
GT11N2<br />
97<br />
501ATS<br />
501G/701G<br />
99<br />
7H/9H<br />
%<br />
35<br />
30<br />
25<br />
PR 20<br />
15<br />
10<br />
5<br />
65<br />
60<br />
55<br />
50<br />
45<br />
77<br />
75 77 79 81 83 85 87 90 92 94 96 98 00<br />
7E/9E<br />
79<br />
81<br />
83<br />
Eficiency Power Output<br />
85<br />
7EA/9EC<br />
V84.2/V94.2<br />
87<br />
89<br />
GT24/GT26<br />
501ATS<br />
501G/701G<br />
501F<br />
/701F<br />
V84.3<br />
9FA/7FA<br />
V84.3A<br />
/V94.3A<br />
7F/9F GT13E2 7FA+<br />
GT11N2501D5A<br />
/701D<br />
91<br />
93<br />
95<br />
97<br />
99<br />
350<br />
300<br />
250<br />
200<br />
150<br />
100<br />
50<br />
0<br />
MW<br />
7H/9H
Requires low<br />
temperatures<br />
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR GAS TURBINES<br />
<strong>Gas</strong> Turbine combustion<br />
NOx Cooling<br />
Need <strong>for</strong> better<br />
burner & combustor<br />
CO, VOC, Efficiency<br />
burnout<br />
Requires high<br />
temperatures
RELIABILITY<br />
AVAILABILITY<br />
MAINTAINABILITY<br />
DURABILITY<br />
SAFETY<br />
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR GAS TURBINES<br />
Dependability Mangement<br />
RAMD-S<br />
(Dependability Management)<br />
doesn´t fail often<br />
it is there when you need it<br />
easy to repair / maintain<br />
doesn´t fail un<strong>de</strong>r stress<br />
doesn´t cause damages
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR GAS TURBINES<br />
Condition Base Maintenance<br />
Human<br />
Interface<br />
Decission support<br />
Prognostics<br />
Per<strong>for</strong>mance & health assessment<br />
Condition monitoring<br />
Control & supervision level<br />
Sensor level
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR GAS TURBINES<br />
Operational reliability (Dependability)<br />
• High Reliability<br />
• High Maintenability<br />
• High Durability<br />
• High Safety<br />
• High Per<strong>for</strong>mance<br />
Life cycle cost<br />
Result in<br />
Result in<br />
Result in<br />
High Availability<br />
Result in<br />
High Dependability<br />
Result in<br />
Low Life Cycle Cost<br />
(€/MWh)
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR GAS TURBINES<br />
Lessons Learnt<br />
User´s point of view<br />
• Acquire the last proven technology and not the latest.<br />
(“Leading vs. bleeding edge”)<br />
• Power Plants are true test stands <strong>for</strong> gas turbine technologies.<br />
• All possible failure mo<strong>de</strong>s are still unknown <strong>for</strong> the latest generation<br />
of gas turbines.<br />
• Any operation of the gas turbine outsi<strong>de</strong> the i<strong>de</strong>al operating<br />
conditions (base load, ISO conditions) significantly affects its<br />
per<strong>for</strong>mance and durability.<br />
• Cyclic operation of combined cycles is still uncharted territory.<br />
(emissions, fuel, part-load, etc.)
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR GAS TURBINES<br />
Lessons Learnt<br />
User´s point of view<br />
• There is little competition <strong>for</strong> non-OEM aftermarket repairs<br />
(It is mainly available <strong>for</strong> 10 or more years ol<strong>de</strong>r technologies).<br />
• Within the lifecycle cost of a combined cycle plant, the maintenance<br />
cost is (approximately) twice the initial cost.<br />
• The <strong>de</strong>sign of a gas turbine always appears to be inconclusive<br />
and subject to continuous improvement.<br />
• There is a need <strong>for</strong> (regulation and) certification of component repair<br />
<strong>for</strong> gas turbine technology.<br />
• Approximately between 70-80% of the cost of electricity<br />
corresponds to the cost of fuel.
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR GAS TURBINES<br />
Lessons Learnt<br />
User´s point of view<br />
• Condition Based Maintenance is presented as an alternative<br />
to reduce maintenance costs.<br />
• There are notable differences in the calculation <strong>for</strong>mulas <strong>for</strong><br />
equivalent operating hours that are driving the need<br />
<strong>for</strong> <strong>de</strong>velopment of new lifecycle mo<strong>de</strong>ls.<br />
• The price of fuel has become a very volatile variable.<br />
• During the first three years of operation a plant (could) continue<br />
to be affected by “infant mortality” failures.<br />
• High maintenance costs are being affected by the operation mo<strong>de</strong>s.<br />
• The latest technology contains a high technological risk
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR GAS TURBINES<br />
Lessons Learnt<br />
• Main technology risks:<br />
User´s point of view<br />
• Mechanical component failures:<br />
• Thermo-mechanic fatigue, creep, …<br />
• Problems due to high firing temperatures:<br />
• Materials & coating life, cooling effectiveness,..<br />
• Rotor & blading integrity:<br />
• Rotor assembly, vibrational/rotordynamic integrity, .…<br />
• Combustion process:<br />
• Flame instability, NOx control, etc.
30%<br />
25%<br />
20%<br />
15%<br />
10%<br />
5%<br />
0%<br />
Compressor Combustor First Stage<br />
bla<strong>de</strong>s cans no zzle<br />
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR GAS TURBINES<br />
Lessons Learnt<br />
First Stage<br />
Bla<strong>de</strong>s<br />
Controls Bearings Seals Couplings Generator<br />
Contribution of various major components to gas turbine down time<br />
User´s point of view<br />
35%<br />
4%<br />
4%<br />
29%<br />
28%<br />
Turbine Combustor Compressor Rotor Auxiliary<br />
Major failures in gas turbines larger than 220MW
CCGT´s<br />
Or<strong>de</strong>rs<br />
120<br />
100<br />
80<br />
60<br />
40<br />
20<br />
0<br />
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR GAS TURBINES<br />
Heavy duty gas turbine market<br />
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002<br />
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001<br />
World<br />
Latam N. America<br />
Middle East Asia<br />
Europe<br />
World<br />
North America<br />
CCGTs (2)<br />
Or<strong>de</strong>rs<br />
Average of<br />
Usage factor<br />
140<br />
120<br />
100<br />
80<br />
60<br />
40<br />
20<br />
0<br />
109<br />
104<br />
66<br />
59<br />
53 55 57 59 61<br />
98<br />
99<br />
00<br />
01<br />
TCMA 05-08 :+3,7%<br />
64 66<br />
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 Year<br />
63% 107% (4) 55% 59% 63%
GT´s or<strong>de</strong>rs<br />
( >60 MW)<br />
700<br />
600<br />
500<br />
400<br />
300<br />
200<br />
100<br />
0<br />
<strong>Gas</strong> Turbine World-wi<strong>de</strong> evolution<br />
415<br />
2000<br />
629<br />
2001 2002 2003 2004<br />
North America<br />
Europe & CIS<br />
Far east<br />
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR GAS TURBINES<br />
<strong>Gas</strong> Turbine World-wi<strong>de</strong> evolution<br />
400<br />
–70,7%<br />
119<br />
184<br />
Asia, middle east<br />
and Australia<br />
Central/South America<br />
GT´s or<strong>de</strong>rs<br />
>60 MW (%)<br />
100<br />
80<br />
60<br />
40<br />
20<br />
0<br />
5% 4% 5% 5%<br />
8% 6% 3% 3%<br />
18%<br />
70% 70% 70% 71%<br />
2000<br />
19% 22% 20%<br />
9%<br />
8%<br />
18%<br />
65%<br />
2001 2002 2003 2004E<br />
Mitsubishi<br />
Alstom<br />
Siemens<br />
GE
Share of OEM´S in the number of GT´s produced in 2005- 2014<br />
Siemens: 867<br />
Rolls-Royce: 455<br />
Others (b): 434<br />
Vericor: 26<br />
Solar: 675<br />
PWPS (UTC PWPS): 155<br />
OPRA: 340<br />
Mitsubishi: 278<br />
Manufacturer varies: 378<br />
Source: Forecast International<br />
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR GAS TURBINES<br />
Alstom: 488<br />
Kawasaki: 1.372<br />
General Electric: 1.993<br />
Hitachi: 89<br />
Siemens: 11,5%<br />
Rolls-Royce: 6,0%<br />
Others (b): 5,7%<br />
Vericor: 0,3%<br />
Solar: 8,9%<br />
PWPS (UTC PWPS):<br />
2,1% OPRA: 4,5%<br />
Mitsubishi: 3,7%<br />
Manufacturer varies:<br />
5,0%<br />
Alstom: 6,5%<br />
Kawasaki: 18,2%<br />
General Electric:<br />
26,4%<br />
Hitachi: 1,2%
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR GAS TURBINES<br />
Share in the number of GT´s from 180 MW to large produced in 2005- 2014<br />
Siemens: 365; 29%<br />
Source: Forecast International<br />
Mitsubishi: 256; 20%<br />
Others (b): 41; 3% Alstom: 94; 7%<br />
General Electric: 524;<br />
41%
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR GAS TURBINES<br />
Share of power class in the number of GT´s produced in 2005- 2014<br />
125 to 180 MW:<br />
1.122; 15%<br />
180 MW to large: 1.280;<br />
17%<br />
50 to 125 MW:<br />
682; 9%<br />
Source: Forecast International<br />
20 - 50 MW:<br />
1.105; 15%<br />
Up to 3MW:<br />
1.589; 20%<br />
10 to 20 MW:<br />
215; 3%<br />
3 to 10 MW:<br />
1.557; 21%
Pathways to Achive Advanced Thermal Power Plants<br />
• Adv. Materials<br />
• Combustion Tech.<br />
• Aero/thermal<br />
• Control/sensors<br />
• Condition monitoring<br />
• Design tools<br />
• New cycles<br />
<strong>Technology</strong> Roadmaps<br />
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR GAS TURBINES<br />
• CO 2 reduction<br />
• Fuel flexibility<br />
Advanced<br />
IGCC/Fuel Cell<br />
IGCC<br />
Market Drivers<br />
Advanced<br />
IGCC/H 2<br />
• Higher effiency<br />
Advanced<br />
NGCC<br />
• Improved <strong>de</strong>pendability<br />
Advaced<br />
GT cycle<br />
Oxy - fuel<br />
Turbine<br />
NGCC<br />
Advanced CO 2<br />
compression<br />
NG<br />
GTCC/Fuel Cell<br />
H 2<br />
Turbine
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR GAS TURBINES<br />
Lessons Learnt<br />
Main conclusion<br />
“<strong>Gas</strong> Turbine <strong>Technology</strong> is one of the best available options<br />
today and in the years to come <strong>for</strong> power generation,<br />
however, they will continue to be affected or influenced by<br />
their user´s technology and <strong>de</strong>velopment needs pending<br />
resolution” (technological paradox)<br />
(3rd International Conference – The Future of <strong>Gas</strong> Turbine <strong>Technology</strong>, Bruselles 11-12 October 2006)
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR GAS TURBINES<br />
BACKUP SLIDES !
Oil/<strong>Gas</strong>, 4%<br />
Spetial regime, 19%<br />
Nuke, 22%<br />
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR GAS TURBINES<br />
Evolution of installed capacity in Spain<br />
Hydro, 7%<br />
CCGT, 18%<br />
Coal, 30%<br />
20000<br />
18000<br />
16000<br />
14000<br />
12000<br />
MW 10000<br />
8000<br />
6000<br />
4000<br />
2000<br />
0<br />
16657<br />
11565<br />
12258<br />
7876<br />
6647<br />
18740<br />
Hydro Coal CCGT Nuke Oil/<strong>Gas</strong> Special<br />
regime
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR GAS TURBINES<br />
Electrical energy mix today in Spain (2005)<br />
Waste treatment,<br />
6%<br />
Solid waste, 5%<br />
Biomass, 4%<br />
Solar PV, 0%<br />
Small hydro, 7%<br />
Wind, 42%<br />
Oil/<strong>Gas</strong>; 4%<br />
Spetial regime; 19%<br />
Nuke; 22%<br />
CHP, 36%<br />
Hydro; 7%<br />
CCGT; 18%<br />
Coal; 30%
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR GAS TURBINES<br />
Installed capacity in Spain as December 2005<br />
MW<br />
20000<br />
18000<br />
16000<br />
14000<br />
12000<br />
10000<br />
8000<br />
6000<br />
4000<br />
2000<br />
0<br />
16657<br />
11565<br />
12258<br />
7876<br />
6647<br />
18740<br />
Hydro Coal CCGT Nuke Oil/<strong>Gas</strong> Special<br />
regime<br />
10000<br />
9000<br />
8000<br />
7000<br />
6000<br />
5000<br />
4000<br />
3000<br />
2000<br />
1000<br />
0<br />
5818<br />
9602<br />
1700<br />
CHP Wind Small<br />
hydro<br />
32<br />
484 581 524<br />
Solar PV Biomass Solid<br />
waste<br />
Waste<br />
treatment
100%<br />
90%<br />
80%<br />
70%<br />
60%<br />
50%<br />
40%<br />
30%<br />
20%<br />
10%<br />
0%<br />
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR GAS TURBINES<br />
Electricity generation in the U.S.<br />
12%<br />
20% 20%<br />
11%<br />
53%<br />
9%<br />
16%<br />
51%<br />
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2010<br />
Coal Natural <strong>Gas</strong> Nuclear Renew ables (a) Wind<br />
10%<br />
22%<br />
22%<br />
43%<br />
4%<br />
12%<br />
23%<br />
25%<br />
37%
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR GAS TURBINES<br />
Total energy supply in the U.S.
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR GAS TURBINES<br />
Centralized Generation
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR GAS TURBINES<br />
Efficiency Comparison
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR GAS TURBINES<br />
Cost of Electricity Comparison
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR GAS TURBINES<br />
Cost of Electricity Comparison
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR GAS TURBINES<br />
<strong>Gas</strong> Turbine material evolution
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR GAS TURBINES<br />
Bla<strong>de</strong> cooling evolution
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR GAS TURBINES<br />
<strong>Gas</strong> Turbine material evolution<br />
100,000 h- rupture strength values of superalloys<br />
Creeping properties of representative superalloys
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR GAS TURBINES<br />
The evolution and complexity of component cooling
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR GAS TURBINES<br />
GAS TURBINE TECHNOLOGIES
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