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22<br />
NONE OF THE ABOVE,<br />
THANK YOU<br />
Robin V. Sears<br />
A very low level <strong>of</strong> engagement resulted in a historically low turnout in <strong>the</strong> October<br />
6 Ontario election, with 51 percent, an outright majority, staying home. The<br />
turnout reflected <strong>the</strong> desultory quality <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> campaign. In a province preoccupied<br />
by jobs in a still fragile recovery, Tory Leader Tim Hudak talked about tax cuts and<br />
mused about “foreign workers,” driving away multicultural voters. Meanwhile,<br />
Dalton McGuinty secured an unlikely third term, even as he seemed tone-deaf to<br />
<strong>the</strong> economic anxieties <strong>of</strong> Ontario voters. Finally, stealing a page from Stephen<br />
Harper’s playbook, he asked for “stable, majority government.” He didn’t quite get<br />
one, <strong>thank</strong>s to <strong>the</strong> strong campaign <strong>of</strong> NDP Leader Andrea Horwath. Contributing<br />
Writer Robin Sears <strong>of</strong>fers a veteran insider’s view <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> campaign.<br />
L’infime intérêt suscité par une campagne décousue explique le taux de<br />
participation d’une faiblesse record aux élections ontariennes du 6 octobre dernier,<br />
51 p. 100 des électeurs refusant de se déplacer pour élire un gouvernement en<br />
quête de majorité. Dans une province préoccupée d’emplois sur fond de reprise<br />
fragile, le chef conservateur Tim Hudak a parlé de réductions d’impôt et qualifié de<br />
« travailleurs étrangers » les électeurs des communautés ethniques, qu’il s’est ainsi<br />
aliénés. Dalton McGuinty a pour sa part décroché un improbable troisième mandat,<br />
même s’il a semblé tout aussi sourd aux angoisses économiques de la population.<br />
Volant in extremis à Stephen Harper une page de son scénario électoral, il a réclamé<br />
un « gouvernement majoritaire stable », qu’on lui a refusé à un siège près, ce dont<br />
on créditera la solide campagne de la chef du NPD Andrea Horwath. Notre<br />
collaborateur Robin Sears <strong>of</strong>fre de la campagne un compte rendu d’initié.<br />
Elections are rarely exercises in exorcism. But two<br />
political ghosts repeatedly hauled out to frighten voters<br />
and small children were finally banished by<br />
Ontario voters. The Liberals tried one more time to brandish<br />
<strong>the</strong> threat <strong>of</strong> a Mike Harris redux but dropped it early on as<br />
voters were no longer frightened by a premier retired more<br />
than a decade ago. The Conservatives eventually dropped<br />
<strong>the</strong>ir anti-Bob Rae rhetoric as NDP Leader Andrea Horwath<br />
was clearly not him, and, as she pointed out with a wry<br />
smile, he was leader <strong>of</strong> ano<strong>the</strong>r party today.<br />
Elections are normally exercises in democratic choice.<br />
With only 49 percent <strong>of</strong> Ontarians voting, a recordlow<br />
turnout, <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r 51 percent said, “<strong>None</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
<strong>above</strong>.” Disengagement was <strong>the</strong> order <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> day. This<br />
unprecedented abstention raises several unpleasant issues<br />
for <strong>the</strong> government, for all <strong>the</strong> political elites and for <strong>the</strong><br />
future. With fewer than one out <strong>of</strong> four voters choosing<br />
<strong>the</strong> governing Liberals, as <strong>the</strong>y head into what could be<br />
ano<strong>the</strong>r recession and face some very tough choices about<br />
whose services to cut first, it is not <strong>the</strong> sort <strong>of</strong> mandate<br />
elections usually deliver.<br />
OPTIONS POLITIQUES<br />
NOVEMBRE 2011<br />
THE PROVINCES<br />
ONTARIO<br />
LES PROVINCES<br />
To ensure <strong>the</strong> message was not lost, voters denied<br />
Premier McGuinty a majority; he is <strong>the</strong> first premier in a<br />
quarter century to receive such a slap. True, he fell short by<br />
only one seat, but as Conservatives and New Democrats<br />
observed, a shift <strong>of</strong> fewer than 5,000 votes in <strong>the</strong> right<br />
places would have seen him defeated.<br />
The Ontario economy has never really recovered from<br />
<strong>the</strong> 2008 recession. It was kept on life support by a combination<br />
<strong>of</strong> American, Ontario and federal government stimulus<br />
spending until <strong>the</strong> summer <strong>of</strong> this year. At a cost <strong>of</strong><br />
500,000 jobs lost and more than $52 billion <strong>of</strong> new provincial<br />
debt in <strong>the</strong> last three years, not to mention <strong>the</strong> federal<br />
stimulus program and <strong>the</strong> auto bailouts, <strong>the</strong> battle against a<br />
structural decline in Canada’s largest economy and export<br />
engine was very expensive. Some economists believe that<br />
merely to avoid ano<strong>the</strong>r round <strong>of</strong> lay<strong>of</strong>fs and factory closings,<br />
ano<strong>the</strong>r round <strong>of</strong> stimulus, pushing debt and deficits<br />
higher once more, will be required this winter.<br />
W hen<br />
first Europe and <strong>the</strong>n <strong>the</strong> United States started<br />
to go wobbly this summer, Ontario’s export-led
economy was sure to follow. By <strong>the</strong><br />
day <strong>the</strong> writ was dropped, just after<br />
Labour Day, <strong>the</strong>re were warning signs<br />
from some economists that Canada<br />
could not resist <strong>the</strong> double whammy<br />
<strong>of</strong> a decline in <strong>the</strong> US and shaky<br />
European markets. By <strong>the</strong> night <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
one real leaders’ debate, three weeks<br />
later, deep concern was <strong>the</strong> order <strong>of</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> day in stock markets, finance ministries<br />
and central banks across <strong>the</strong><br />
developed world. Voters conveyed<br />
<strong>the</strong>ir worries to thousands <strong>of</strong> party<br />
canvassers across <strong>the</strong> province with<br />
mounting anxiety and even anger.<br />
This dramatic change in voter expectation<br />
and anxiety was slow to<br />
move <strong>the</strong> party strategists. It was not<br />
until <strong>the</strong> debate week that <strong>the</strong> parties<br />
began to reshape <strong>the</strong>ir messaging to<br />
reflect <strong>the</strong> prospect <strong>of</strong> a potentially grim<br />
winter ahead. Andrea Horwath predictably<br />
and wisely, given her base,<br />
focused on those who would be most<br />
severely hit by ano<strong>the</strong>r winter <strong>of</strong> lay<strong>of</strong>fs.<br />
The McGuinty campaign stole a page<br />
from <strong>the</strong> Harper playbook and pleaded<br />
for a majority under proven leadership.<br />
Improbably, and foolishly, <strong>the</strong> Hudak<br />
campaign stuck to its anti-tax message,<br />
not understanding that voters afraid <strong>of</strong><br />
being laid <strong>of</strong>f worry more about getting<br />
paid than paying taxes.<br />
For <strong>the</strong> McGuinty government, <strong>the</strong><br />
experience <strong>of</strong> an earlier regime suffering<br />
a sudden hole appearing in <strong>the</strong> economy<br />
may be instructive. Bob Rae’s unexpected<br />
and unprepared government<br />
faced an even harsher political nightmare<br />
in September 1990, taking <strong>of</strong>fice<br />
on <strong>the</strong> cusp <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> deep recession <strong>of</strong><br />
1990-91. The despair that engulfed <strong>the</strong><br />
province by mid-winter 1991 had been<br />
only a shadow on <strong>the</strong> horizon during<br />
his campaign. Rae could not claim to<br />
have inherited <strong>the</strong> hole in <strong>the</strong> Ontario<br />
economy from <strong>the</strong> defeated Liberal government<br />
before him, though he tried. It<br />
grew so quickly that an alleged budget<br />
surplus in <strong>the</strong> spring had become a billion-dollar<br />
political boat anchor by fall.<br />
(Disclosure: By <strong>the</strong>n I was helping to<br />
Andrea Horwath predictably and wisely, given her base, focused<br />
on those who would be most severely hit by ano<strong>the</strong>r winter <strong>of</strong><br />
lay<strong>of</strong>fs. The McGuinty campaign stole a page from <strong>the</strong> Harper<br />
playbook and pleaded for a majority under proven leadership.<br />
Improbably, and foolishly, <strong>the</strong> Hudak campaign stuck to its antitax<br />
message, not understanding that voters afraid <strong>of</strong> being laid<br />
<strong>of</strong>f worry more about getting paid than paying taxes.<br />
sell <strong>the</strong> province’s debt as Ontario’s senior<br />
Asia trade diplomat.)<br />
Like David Peterson waltzing to<br />
defeat in a similarly sunny summer<br />
campaign, Dalton McGuinty whistled<br />
vigorously past <strong>the</strong> economic graveyard<br />
from <strong>the</strong> campaign’s beginning until<br />
almost too late. Curiously, he adopted<br />
<strong>the</strong> pose <strong>of</strong> a premier who had vanquished<br />
<strong>the</strong> recession, bragging about<br />
classrooms, waiting rooms and factory<br />
jobs delivered during his second term.<br />
His campaign bus, plastered in a word<br />
cloud <strong>of</strong> boasts and statistics, was quickly<br />
dubbed <strong>the</strong> “bragging bus” by critics.<br />
The party’s flagship TV ads were <strong>of</strong><br />
Premier Dad standing alone on screen<br />
quietly boasting <strong>of</strong> his achievements.<br />
It was a strangely tone-deaf<br />
approach for a government seeking a<br />
third term at <strong>the</strong> tail end <strong>of</strong> one gruesome<br />
recession, while visibly teetering<br />
on <strong>the</strong> edge <strong>of</strong> a double dip. For those<br />
who believe it is rarely <strong>the</strong>ir enemies<br />
but Liberals’ own arrogance in power<br />
that most <strong>of</strong>ten defeats <strong>the</strong>m, this<br />
almost became a textbook case. A more<br />
thoughtful campaign team would<br />
have begun with an expression <strong>of</strong> chagrin<br />
at <strong>the</strong> pain <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> recession and its<br />
impact on <strong>the</strong>ir ability to deliver. A<br />
more self-aware premier would have<br />
dialed it back a few notches.<br />
Several ministers and influential<br />
Liberals pleaded with <strong>the</strong> Liberal war<br />
room to insert some humble pie in <strong>the</strong><br />
Premier’s message, to no avail. As one<br />
<strong>None</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>above</strong>, <strong>thank</strong> <strong>you</strong><br />
said privately, “For Chrissake! We didn’t<br />
create <strong>the</strong> recession, we don’t have to<br />
apologize that it made it impossible for<br />
us to do things we wanted to do! We’d<br />
look better if we ‘felt <strong>the</strong>ir pain’ before<br />
telling voters how great we had been.”<br />
Ontario voters are traditionally unimpressed<br />
by braggadocio, and Dalton’s<br />
“humble fa<strong>the</strong>r” stance probably<br />
saved him from a more<br />
punishing election night<br />
result, given <strong>the</strong> gap between<br />
<strong>the</strong> government’s claims and<br />
<strong>the</strong> bleaker reality experienced<br />
by many Ontarians.<br />
But what definitively<br />
saved <strong>the</strong>m from real electoral<br />
humiliation was <strong>the</strong><br />
astonishing naiveté <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Hudak campaign<br />
team. Conservatives in Canada<br />
and around <strong>the</strong> world carry <strong>the</strong> burden<br />
<strong>of</strong> being seen as <strong>the</strong> party <strong>of</strong> “angry old<br />
white guys.” The federal Conservatives,<br />
in less than a decade, have done an<br />
astonishing job <strong>of</strong> erasing that deeply<br />
ingrained perception. Like social democrats’<br />
vulnerability to charges that <strong>the</strong>y<br />
“couldn’t run a peanut stand,” conservatives<br />
must always be cautious not to<br />
open <strong>the</strong>ir vulnerability to charges that<br />
women, gays, <strong>the</strong> <strong>you</strong>ng and brownskinned<br />
Canadians are not part <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir<br />
coalition.<br />
In this respect, Hudak and his campaign<br />
team could not have been<br />
more foolish.<br />
First <strong>the</strong>y attacked a proposed<br />
Liberal program designed to help “foreign<br />
workers,” as Hudak called <strong>the</strong>m. It<br />
was indeed a curious plank to put in<br />
<strong>the</strong> campaign window: costed at less<br />
than $20 million it would have done<br />
little; targeted at less than a thousand<br />
workers a year, it would have benefitted<br />
few. Some wags dubbed it “Jobs for<br />
Foreign Ph.D. Cabbies.” By piling on<br />
so vehemently against it, however,<br />
Hudak reinforced <strong>the</strong> suspicion among<br />
many Ontarians that in contrast to <strong>the</strong><br />
Liberals’ “Forward Toge<strong>the</strong>r” message,<br />
Tories did not include some groups in<br />
<strong>the</strong>ir vision <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> province’s future.<br />
There was an approach to whacking<br />
<strong>the</strong> Liberals’ cynically divisive<br />
POLICY OPTIONS<br />
NOVEMBER 2011<br />
23
24<br />
Robin V. Sears<br />
politics that one could have imagined<br />
a more adroit campaign team delivering.<br />
If <strong>the</strong> Tory messaging had been to<br />
attack <strong>the</strong> Liberals for creating division,<br />
to champion <strong>the</strong>ir own plan for<br />
immigrant integration, <strong>the</strong> damage<br />
would have been contained. If <strong>the</strong>y<br />
had campaigned on <strong>the</strong> “One Ontario”<br />
<strong>the</strong>me that <strong>the</strong> Liberals had used<br />
against <strong>the</strong>m four years earlier, Hudak<br />
might have been premier.<br />
Meanwhile <strong>the</strong> foolishness <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
two larger parties gave NDP Leader<br />
Andrea Horwath her first campaign<br />
traction. She was able to dismiss each<br />
competitor’s attempt at a “Sou<strong>the</strong>rn<br />
strategy” style <strong>of</strong> American politics,<br />
positioning herself as a different kind<br />
<strong>of</strong> politician.<br />
Television debates have come a<br />
long way since <strong>the</strong> days when a sweaty<br />
upper lip or a good one-liner could end<br />
a career. Today <strong>the</strong>y are <strong>the</strong> centrepiece<br />
<strong>of</strong> modern electoral politics in<br />
almost all <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> established democracies.<br />
Even <strong>the</strong> United Kingdom which,<br />
perhaps typically, had resisted <strong>the</strong>m<br />
for nearly half a century finally succumbed.<br />
Arguably, David Cameron<br />
and Nick Clegg govern Britain today<br />
on <strong>the</strong> strength <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir debate performances.<br />
Much <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> media pundit class has<br />
failed to keep up with what makes<br />
debates important in <strong>the</strong> eyes <strong>of</strong> voters.<br />
They still tend to score <strong>the</strong>m<br />
like a basketball game or a<br />
contest between teens on a<br />
high school debating stage,<br />
rewarding points for style and<br />
wit and form. Those are not<br />
<strong>the</strong> tests that voters bring to<br />
<strong>the</strong> contests. In campaign<br />
after campaign, good qualitative<br />
researchers have demonstrated<br />
that debates are not about zingers<br />
but about character.<br />
They are <strong>the</strong> only moment in <strong>the</strong><br />
life <strong>of</strong> a campaign when voters,<br />
peering through <strong>the</strong> camera lens, get a<br />
glimpse <strong>of</strong> a leader’s soul. They see <strong>the</strong><br />
quality <strong>of</strong> leadership under stress. They<br />
spot <strong>the</strong> truth, or <strong>the</strong> attempt to conceal<br />
it, in <strong>the</strong> frightened glances that<br />
OPTIONS POLITIQUES<br />
NOVEMBRE 2011<br />
every o<strong>the</strong>r event in modern politics<br />
does its best to distort, exaggerate or<br />
prevent.<br />
It is <strong>the</strong> moment when two guys<br />
in a bar turn to each o<strong>the</strong>r and say,<br />
“Glass jaw, eh?” as happened to<br />
Michael Ignatieff. He simply looked<br />
pole-axed when Jack Layton thundered<br />
at his chronic absenteeism during<br />
<strong>the</strong> English-language federal<br />
leaders’ debate last April. It is <strong>the</strong><br />
moment when a husband turns to his<br />
wife and says, “I know he’s smart, and<br />
he’s good at this stuff, but I just don’t<br />
trust him.”<br />
It is because <strong>the</strong> risks and rewards<br />
are so high that smart campaign strategists<br />
do not allow <strong>the</strong> final debate to<br />
be too close to election day. It’s not<br />
possible to recover in time from a bad<br />
performance. Liberal and Conservative<br />
strategists were already muttering,<br />
“Never again!” after this campaign’s<br />
single debate, which <strong>the</strong> broadcasters<br />
had pushed back to <strong>the</strong> final nine days<br />
<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> election.<br />
On <strong>the</strong> strength <strong>of</strong> his debate performance,<br />
Dalton McGuinty seemed<br />
not to have understood what voters<br />
would judge as a win. Usually experience<br />
tells in debate contests. The first<br />
time <strong>you</strong> leap without a safety net into<br />
a competition in front <strong>of</strong> hundreds <strong>of</strong><br />
thousands <strong>of</strong> people, whe<strong>the</strong>r as an<br />
Olympic athlete or a political debater,<br />
it is not likely to be a polished, confident<br />
performance. You won’t be cool<br />
under attack, or capable <strong>of</strong> sliding <strong>the</strong><br />
knife in with a smile. Curiously,<br />
McGuinty was worse in this debate<br />
than in his previous rounds.<br />
Like an over-confident high school<br />
best boy, he exploded into living rooms<br />
waving his hands, bla<strong>the</strong>ring statistics,<br />
with a silly grin that made one wonder<br />
what his handlers had pumped him<br />
with in <strong>the</strong> green room. The rapid-fire<br />
recitation <strong>of</strong> hospitals, schools, highway<br />
miles and minutes <strong>of</strong> recovered<br />
wait times was almost Pythonesque. If<br />
<strong>you</strong> closed <strong>you</strong>r eyes <strong>you</strong> could almost<br />
be listening to a Soviet era, five-yearplan<br />
speech on <strong>the</strong> “Economic<br />
Achievements <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> People.” As both<br />
his opponents pointed out, again and<br />
again, it was a curiously tone-deaf<br />
stance to <strong>of</strong>fer to a province with more<br />
than half a million unemployed voters.<br />
Hudak did better, but he suffered<br />
in <strong>the</strong> au<strong>the</strong>nticity stakes as well. He<br />
restrained his robotic attack impulse<br />
and avoided <strong>the</strong> nasty edge that his<br />
voice takes on when in that mode. He<br />
was compelling about <strong>the</strong> failures in<br />
<strong>the</strong> long run <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> McGuinty government<br />
and scored <strong>the</strong> sound bite <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
night when he told McGuinty: “With<br />
respect, sir, nobody believes <strong>you</strong> anymore.”<br />
Hudak was less effective on his<br />
vision <strong>of</strong> a better future. He, like his<br />
campaign strategists, seemed to believe<br />
that his message about tax cuts leading<br />
to job creation would be compelling<br />
without <strong>of</strong>fering even broad hints<br />
about how this legerdemain would<br />
actually deliver. His opponents and <strong>the</strong><br />
media were rough on this gap on <strong>the</strong><br />
night and later. In a curiously revealing<br />
insight into his own discomfort<br />
with how his handlers were forcing<br />
If <strong>the</strong> Tory messaging had been to attack <strong>the</strong> Liberals for<br />
creating division, to champion <strong>the</strong>ir own plan for immigrant<br />
integration, <strong>the</strong> damage would have been contained. If <strong>the</strong>y<br />
had campaigned on <strong>the</strong> “One Ontario” <strong>the</strong>me that <strong>the</strong><br />
Liberals had used against <strong>the</strong>m four years earlier, Hudak<br />
might have been premier.<br />
him to perform, asked to rate his own<br />
performance later, he laughed and said<br />
he had been a little “too unscripted”<br />
and should have stayed on message<br />
better.<br />
Horwath should not have done as<br />
well as she did, being a newcomer<br />
both to debates and to leadership. Her<br />
handlers were spooked when she delivered<br />
a wooden and clumsy perform-
ance only a few days earlier in a oneon-one<br />
debate with Hudak in<br />
Nor<strong>the</strong>rn Ontario. Improbably, as if to<br />
demonstrate how arrogant and<br />
Toronto-centric <strong>the</strong> McGuinty government<br />
had become, he refused to join<br />
<strong>the</strong>m for <strong>the</strong> debate in Thunder Bay.<br />
Hudak and Horwath dropped regular<br />
sarcastic references to his absence in<br />
<strong>the</strong> TV debate. “We missed <strong>you</strong> in<br />
Thunder Bay,” she said with a killer<br />
smile. Nor<strong>the</strong>rn voters punished <strong>the</strong><br />
slight on election night.<br />
Unwisely, Horwath used her son’s<br />
experience with a hospital waiting<br />
room as an example <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> failures <strong>of</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> health care system. It seemed<br />
forced on <strong>the</strong> night and several times<br />
later she had to clarify what actually<br />
happened. Similarly, Hudak used his<br />
daughter’s painful medical battles for<br />
political gain that night, and many<br />
parents and voters winced. McGuinty,<br />
who sometimes <strong>of</strong>fers bizarrely<br />
detailed updates on his family life, was<br />
more appropriately reticent. He made<br />
up for it on election night in a<br />
maudlin speech that singled out every<br />
family member, staff person and colleague<br />
for special <strong>thank</strong>s.<br />
The NDP Leader is an unusual<br />
woman politician, nei<strong>the</strong>r<br />
Thatcherite in her adoption <strong>of</strong> a gender-bending<br />
masculine stance, nor<br />
Palinesque with flirtatious riffs for <strong>the</strong><br />
guys in <strong>the</strong> front row. Her comfort<br />
zone is clearly feminine — a mo<strong>the</strong>r,<br />
a proud daughter and a self-confident<br />
woman — but her winning smile conceals<br />
an edge and a spine that is now<br />
acknowledged by erstwhile opponents<br />
in <strong>the</strong> party and now in <strong>the</strong><br />
media. She used, unfairly, <strong>the</strong> hesitation<br />
<strong>of</strong> three men, including <strong>the</strong> mod-<br />
<strong>None</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>above</strong>, <strong>thank</strong> <strong>you</strong><br />
CP Photo<br />
Andrea Horwath learned well <strong>the</strong> lesson <strong>of</strong> Jack Layton’s campaign: smile and put out a positive message. Though Dalton McGuinty<br />
won <strong>the</strong> Ontario election, she clearly ran <strong>the</strong> best campaign, resulting in Ontario’s first minority Legislature since 1985.<br />
erator, sharing a stage with one<br />
woman to sneak shots in at her opponents,<br />
and to undermine <strong>the</strong>ir performances<br />
with quick jabs. TVO’s<br />
Steve Paikin, Canada’s debate moderator<br />
extraordinaire, was slow to discipline<br />
her pushing <strong>the</strong> boundaries.<br />
Enragingly to her opponents, she<br />
also slid over policy gaps and even<br />
made a couple <strong>of</strong> curious bloopers —<br />
she described Samsung as a “publicly<br />
owned company” which would come<br />
as a surprise to its shareholders — that<br />
no one noticed. Several times, each <strong>of</strong><br />
her opponents froze, mid-sentence,<br />
mum in <strong>the</strong>ir fear <strong>of</strong> appearing to pick<br />
on a woman, even as she attacked<br />
<strong>the</strong>m. Her position on camera between<br />
her two opponents gave her great positioning<br />
on TV. She merely had to hold<br />
her arms wide as if to say, “Boys,<br />
Ontario expects better!”<br />
POLICY OPTIONS<br />
NOVEMBER 2011<br />
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26<br />
Robin V. Sears<br />
In politics, it is not usually an advantage<br />
to be <strong>the</strong> newcomer, a woman<br />
and <strong>the</strong> pollsters’ choice as weakest<br />
competitor. The licence, <strong>the</strong> light scrutiny<br />
and <strong>the</strong> room Horwath was granted<br />
by her opponents was, perhaps, <strong>the</strong><br />
exception that proves <strong>the</strong> rule.<br />
She did not give much <strong>of</strong> a glimpse<br />
<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> detail <strong>of</strong> an NDP government,<br />
and critics complained that <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
three she looked <strong>the</strong> least like a premier.<br />
Her team chuckled at <strong>the</strong> sniping,<br />
confident that she had done what she<br />
needed to do: look like she belonged<br />
on that stage, and that under pressure<br />
she was a competent and confident<br />
performer. Three polls in rapid succession<br />
confirmed <strong>the</strong>ir confidence, as<br />
Horwath’s pr<strong>of</strong>ile and approval slowly<br />
lifted in <strong>the</strong> campaign’s final days.<br />
The campaign’s closing days were<br />
anti-climactic as <strong>the</strong> three campaigns<br />
attempted to solidify <strong>the</strong>ir positions.<br />
The New Democrats continued to<br />
pound <strong>the</strong>ir “who will fight for <strong>you</strong><br />
message” with confidence and a leader<br />
who not only did not stumble but visibly<br />
grew in confidence. Horwath’s final<br />
rallies were large and boisterous, while<br />
<strong>the</strong> Liberal war room cruelly put out on<br />
<strong>the</strong>ir various websites hidden camera<br />
shots <strong>of</strong> Hudak delivering his stump<br />
speech to rooms more than half empty.<br />
The sense that his campaign had<br />
stumbled irretrievably came in <strong>the</strong> final<br />
days when <strong>the</strong> Tory campaign promoted<br />
a leaflet that was explicitly homophobic,<br />
slandered teachers as a pr<strong>of</strong>ession and<br />
made bizarrely false claims about sex<br />
education in Ontario schools. It was as if<br />
some internal gremlin had set about sabotaging<br />
each potential growth area for<br />
<strong>the</strong> party, demographic by demographic.<br />
Having made any Ontario voter who<br />
had ever been humiliated by being singled<br />
out as a ‘foreigner’ feel insulted<br />
once more, <strong>the</strong> Tory campaign <strong>the</strong>n<br />
OPTIONS POLITIQUES<br />
NOVEMBRE 2011<br />
attacked <strong>the</strong> tolerance <strong>of</strong> urban<br />
Ontarians about sexual orientation. For a<br />
deadly icing on this political cake, <strong>the</strong>y<br />
attacked <strong>the</strong> pr<strong>of</strong>ession that had represented<br />
<strong>the</strong> key flash point <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Harris<br />
era: Ontario teachers.<br />
On election night, <strong>the</strong> Hudak campaign<br />
failed to break through in<br />
Toronto or o<strong>the</strong>r parts <strong>of</strong> urban<br />
Ontario, where <strong>the</strong> gay community<br />
and those who see inclusive treatment<br />
<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir friends in that community as<br />
A more pr<strong>of</strong>essional campaign by <strong>the</strong> Tories, focused on a<br />
positive and inclusive conservative vision <strong>of</strong> Ontario, would<br />
probably have come much closer to victory, especially in 905,<br />
where <strong>the</strong> same multicultural voters who had flocked to<br />
Harper deserted Hudak following <strong>the</strong> “foreign workers” foray.<br />
something that makes <strong>the</strong>m proud <strong>of</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong>ir province. They lost <strong>the</strong> new<br />
Canadian communities in <strong>the</strong> arc <strong>of</strong><br />
seats across northwest suburban<br />
Toronto that Harper had done so well<br />
in only a few months earlier, sweeping<br />
21 <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> 22 ridings in <strong>the</strong> suburban<br />
905 belt around Toronto. They racked<br />
up wasted majorities in small town,<br />
rural and Eastern Ontario, dooming<br />
most <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir star candidates to defeat.<br />
The results were surprising in a<br />
number <strong>of</strong> tight races where strong<br />
incumbents, and several ministers, went<br />
down to defeat. But in <strong>the</strong> province<br />
overall <strong>the</strong> shift <strong>of</strong> 17 seats to <strong>the</strong> combined<br />
opposition parties for a government<br />
seeking a third term in a recession<br />
was hardly surprising. A more pr<strong>of</strong>essional<br />
campaign by <strong>the</strong> Tories, focused<br />
on a positive and inclusive conservative<br />
vision <strong>of</strong> Ontario, would probably have<br />
come much closer to victory, especially<br />
in 905, where <strong>the</strong> same multicultural<br />
voters who had flocked to Harper deserted<br />
Hudak following <strong>the</strong> “foreign workers”<br />
foray. The NDP might have elected<br />
ano<strong>the</strong>r half dozen seats with only a few<br />
more votes appropriately scattered. But<br />
given from how far behind <strong>the</strong>y had<br />
come, given that very few voters had<br />
ever heard <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir leader at <strong>the</strong> beginning<br />
<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> campaign, <strong>the</strong>y were pleased<br />
with <strong>the</strong>ir gains.<br />
Since its glory days under David<br />
Peterson, <strong>the</strong> Ontario Liberal Party has<br />
been famous for a self-regard, a dismissive<br />
approach to those outside <strong>the</strong>ir<br />
political family. This arrogance, even<br />
more <strong>of</strong>fensive to many voters after <strong>the</strong><br />
Liberals’ eight years in power, was visible<br />
throughout <strong>the</strong> campaign. On election<br />
night <strong>the</strong> premier hailed his<br />
supporters and <strong>thank</strong>ed his voters as if<br />
he had just won a massive new mandate.<br />
The messages from <strong>the</strong> Premier’s<br />
Office in <strong>the</strong> days following were not<br />
encouraging to those who<br />
thought a slice <strong>of</strong> contrition<br />
and humility were <strong>the</strong><br />
appropriate response to leading<br />
a minority government.<br />
His team leaked to reporters<br />
<strong>the</strong> names <strong>of</strong> opposition<br />
MPPs <strong>the</strong>y would seek to get<br />
to cross <strong>the</strong> floor. Some went so far as to<br />
spin that <strong>the</strong>y expected to be in power<br />
for four more years and would govern as<br />
if <strong>the</strong>y had a majority.<br />
Horwath, in a gracious election<br />
night concession speech, called on her<br />
two opponents to govern in recognition<br />
<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> voters’ nuanced message to<br />
all <strong>the</strong> parties, saying that she expected<br />
to meet with <strong>the</strong>m soon to begin<br />
planning <strong>the</strong> new session. Hudak had<br />
done <strong>the</strong> same. In an elegant and emotional<br />
speech, Hudak made it clear that<br />
he is a far more interesting and<br />
nuanced politician than his campaign<br />
had permitted him to reveal. He avoided<br />
<strong>the</strong> kind <strong>of</strong> tub-thumping in which<br />
<strong>the</strong> Premier indulged. It was <strong>the</strong> sort <strong>of</strong><br />
concession speech at <strong>the</strong> end <strong>of</strong> which<br />
pr<strong>of</strong>essionals from every political tribe<br />
nod to each o<strong>the</strong>r and say, “He’ll grow.<br />
He’ll be back.”<br />
Astonishingly, in response a week<br />
later, <strong>the</strong> Premier announced that he<br />
would not have any discussions with<br />
ei<strong>the</strong>r <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> two opposition leaders<br />
before <strong>the</strong> opening <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> new<br />
Legislature. The government will want<br />
to listen to its worried friends and<br />
allies about <strong>the</strong> need to adopt a less<br />
provocative stance to governing, given<br />
that <strong>the</strong>y will be selling a very bitter<br />
political message to Ontario voters in<br />
<strong>the</strong> weeks and months ahead.
28<br />
Robin V. Sears<br />
The collapse in support for democracy<br />
that <strong>the</strong> electoral turnout reflects<br />
cannot yet be dissected for detailed<br />
analysis. It will be surprising, however,<br />
if <strong>the</strong> academic number crunchers,<br />
pollsters and psephologists do not<br />
point to a continuing decline in <strong>the</strong><br />
participation <strong>of</strong> voters under 30 and to<br />
<strong>the</strong> hesitant participation <strong>of</strong> new<br />
Canadians. Even more sadly, such an<br />
analysis will probably reveal a widening<br />
class divide in <strong>the</strong> province<br />
between those with property and<br />
those without. It is <strong>the</strong> sort <strong>of</strong> voter<br />
disengagement for which Canadians<br />
have long sneered at <strong>the</strong> United States<br />
that we now appear to have allowed<br />
ourselves to develop.<br />
It will not be easy to respond in policy<br />
or political terms to <strong>the</strong> delegitimization<br />
<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> party elites implied by<br />
such a low voting rate. Efforts to reach<br />
out to new and <strong>you</strong>ng voters and discuss<br />
<strong>the</strong> reasons for <strong>the</strong>ir feeling <strong>of</strong> disempowerment<br />
will have to be an<br />
important step. Encouraging <strong>the</strong> parties<br />
to revive <strong>the</strong>ir local activist bases<br />
to include voters who are not merely<br />
aging white homeowners will also be<br />
key. No one in political life should dismiss<br />
<strong>the</strong> seriousness <strong>of</strong> a continued<br />
slide in participation.<br />
It will be hard to win broad support<br />
for <strong>the</strong> tough measures any Ontario<br />
government will need to implement to<br />
regain fiscal credibility. It will be impossible<br />
if those who feel <strong>the</strong> most alienated<br />
from politics see governments’<br />
decisions as deliberately favouring<br />
those who have and vote, over those<br />
who have not and don’t. The reasons<br />
for some <strong>of</strong> those voters’ disengagement<br />
can be seen from a car window in<br />
many parts <strong>of</strong> Ontario today.<br />
OPTIONS POLITIQUES<br />
NOVEMBRE 2011<br />
The devastation and despair were<br />
visible to <strong>the</strong> leaders in this campaign,<br />
as never before. As <strong>the</strong> three leaders’<br />
buses crisscrossed <strong>the</strong> province in a<br />
glorious late-summer September, <strong>the</strong>y<br />
would have noticed how dramatically<br />
<strong>the</strong> province has changed. As recently<br />
as <strong>the</strong> last deep recession, <strong>the</strong> one that<br />
Horwath, in a gracious election night concession speech, called<br />
on her two opponents to govern in recognition <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> voters’<br />
nuanced message to all <strong>the</strong> parties, saying that she expected to<br />
meet with <strong>the</strong>m soon to begin planning <strong>the</strong> new session. Hudak<br />
had done <strong>the</strong> same. In an elegant and emotional speech, Hudak<br />
made it clear that he is a far more interesting and nuanced<br />
politician than his campaign had permitted him to reveal.<br />
afflicted <strong>the</strong> Rae government in <strong>the</strong><br />
early 1990s, Ontario was still mostly a<br />
prosperous province.<br />
Today, a prosperity map <strong>of</strong><br />
Ontario resembles a war zone after<br />
years <strong>of</strong> artillery pounding. Pockmarked<br />
by endless shuttered factories<br />
and dying shopping malls, many<br />
parts <strong>of</strong> Ontario now feature industrial<br />
bomb craters, as it were. Yet <strong>the</strong>re<br />
are pockets <strong>of</strong> shining prosperity,<br />
<strong>of</strong>ten nearby. If <strong>you</strong> started <strong>you</strong>r<br />
leader’s tour day in Waterloo and<br />
ended it in Welland, <strong>you</strong> would slide<br />
from glittering high tech prosperity<br />
to rust belt desolation.<br />
The booming tech suburbs <strong>of</strong><br />
Ottawa are only an hour away from <strong>the</strong><br />
abandoned factories, motels and peeling<br />
main streets <strong>of</strong> a dozen nearby<br />
towns. The far<strong>the</strong>r <strong>you</strong> travel from <strong>the</strong><br />
905 arc <strong>of</strong> prosperity that runs from<br />
Oakville to Oshawa, <strong>the</strong> more <strong>the</strong> failed<br />
motels, mills and abandoned farms<br />
make up <strong>the</strong> view from any highway.<br />
The hollowing out <strong>of</strong> Canada’s<br />
richest province began long ago —<br />
along with <strong>the</strong> widening gap between<br />
<strong>the</strong> affluence <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> skilled and <strong>the</strong><br />
burgeoning army <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> blue collar<br />
unemployed. But it is in this latest<br />
harsh recession that <strong>the</strong> holes have<br />
become visible in almost every region.<br />
Each leader faces challenges in<br />
addressing this new reality.<br />
Premier McGuinty could not have<br />
failed to contemplate how much worse<br />
<strong>of</strong>f some <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se unhappy voters and<br />
communities will be when <strong>the</strong> cuts<br />
begin to bite. Hudak will no doubt have<br />
wondered about <strong>the</strong> wisdom <strong>of</strong> his<br />
claims <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> hundreds <strong>of</strong> thousands <strong>of</strong><br />
jobs his tax cuts were promised to deliver.<br />
Horwath, as a single mo<strong>the</strong>r, knows<br />
better than most <strong>the</strong> fear <strong>of</strong> a lost job or<br />
even <strong>the</strong> unbudgeted collapse<br />
<strong>of</strong> an old car and will<br />
have seen <strong>the</strong> fear in <strong>the</strong><br />
eyes <strong>of</strong> Ontario voters as her<br />
bus rolled through yet<br />
ano<strong>the</strong>r declining town.<br />
As <strong>the</strong> Premier settles<br />
into his third term, his<br />
Finance <strong>of</strong>ficials will gingerly<br />
reveal how much worse<br />
<strong>the</strong> public fisc is than <strong>the</strong>y had cheerfully<br />
informed him only three months<br />
earlier. The memories <strong>of</strong> warm latesummer<br />
campaign days will be replaced<br />
by <strong>the</strong> shock <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> first early snow and<br />
chillier economic news by <strong>the</strong> week.<br />
As <strong>the</strong>y begin <strong>the</strong> inevitable<br />
slices into public expenditure in<br />
preparation for <strong>the</strong>ir first grim budget,<br />
one may hope that <strong>the</strong> Premier<br />
and his team recall those bereft faces<br />
and <strong>the</strong> sad, sagging cities and<br />
towns <strong>the</strong>y roared through on <strong>the</strong>ir<br />
return to power. It is in <strong>the</strong> Wellands<br />
and Thunder Bays and Pembrokes<br />
that every cut in nurses and teachers<br />
and highway crews is felt first. And<br />
in <strong>the</strong> broken neighbourhoods <strong>of</strong><br />
Ontario’s inner cities, every afterschool<br />
and child care cutback hits<br />
harder than in <strong>the</strong> wealthy condos<br />
nearby.<br />
The Premier might even mutter a<br />
silent apology to Bob Rae for all <strong>the</strong><br />
sport at his expense. Now it’s<br />
McGuinty’s turn to attempt <strong>the</strong> daunting<br />
task <strong>of</strong> balancing <strong>the</strong> demands <strong>of</strong><br />
bond markets and child care, <strong>the</strong><br />
demands <strong>of</strong> shrill economists and<br />
bankers versus angry laid-<strong>of</strong>f breadwinners.<br />
Winter will come early for<br />
Ontario this year.<br />
Contributing Writer Robin V. Sears is a<br />
principal <strong>of</strong> Ensight Canada. He is a former<br />
national director <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> New Democratic<br />
Party. rsears@navltd.com