THE EUROPEAN LOGISTICS MARKET - BNP Paribas Real Estate

A WEAKER EURO TO SUPPORT EUROPEAN EXPORTS
Recently released data showed that, amidst a challenging period,
The main driver for the slowdown has been the increased uncertainty
deteriorated sharply, across all sectors of the European economy,
in the later part of 2011. As reported by the European commission,
consumer and business sentiments fell in November 2011 to
particularly discretionary type, continued to remain weak.
Sentiment indicators, thus far in 2012, have shown signs of
persist in most troubled economies such as Italy, Spain and Ireland.
Even in the core countries, sentiment has merely reached a plateau.
Q1 and no variation in Q2. As such, we expect growth in H1 2012 to
continue to be challenging.
GDP and employment growth in EU 15
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
Imports on selected European countries
(year on year change)
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
%
%
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12* 13*
* Forecast
Source: Eurostat; BNP Paribas Real Estate
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Source: Eurostat
GDP growth
Employment Growth
France Germany Italy Spain United Kingdom
PROPERTY REPORT - THE EUROPEAN LOGISTICS MARKET - MARCH 2012
The timing of the slowdown indicates that 2012 as a whole is likely
market conditions are unlikely to improve, materially, until 2014.
outside Europe has shown resilience, with net trade providing
Although yearly growth in export slowed somewhat in the last
export order books are improving. A recent survey, by the European
saw a turning point in falling export orders. This implies that going
positive backdrop for the European logistics market.
Distributive trade in EU 15
2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
-0,5
-1,0
-1,5
-2,0
-2,5
Exports on selected European countries
(year on year change)
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
%
%
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12*13*
* Forecast
Source: Oxford Economics / BNP Paribas
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Source: Eurostat
France Germany Italy Spain United Kingdom
3