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Analyz<strong>in</strong>g & Enhanc<strong>in</strong>g The<br />

Extended Enterprise<br />

Hilton Montreal Bonaventure<br />

Montreal, Canada<br />

<strong>Best</strong> <strong>Practices</strong> <strong>in</strong><br />

<strong>Risk</strong> <strong>Management</strong><br />

Track 1: Monday, May 20th<br />

INFORMS Conference on<br />

OR/MS Practice<br />

Analytic Methods <strong>in</strong> Practice<br />

10:30 am - 11:20 am<br />

Dr. Robert M. Mark<br />

President & CEO<br />

Black Diamond <strong>Risk</strong> Enterprises<br />

Tel: (416) 916 3398<br />

Email: bmark@blackdiamondrisk.com<br />

1


ABOUT DR. ROBERT MARK<br />

Dr. Robert M. Mark is the President & Chief Executive Officer of Black Diamond. Black Diamond provides<br />

f<strong>in</strong>ancial service consult<strong>in</strong>g and risk transaction services. He serves on the Boards of the Fields Institute for<br />

Research <strong>in</strong> Mathematical Sciences, IBM’s Deep Comput<strong>in</strong>g Institute and the Royal Conservatory. In 1998 he<br />

was awarded the F<strong>in</strong>ancial <strong>Risk</strong> Manager of the Year award by the Global Association of <strong>Risk</strong> Professionals<br />

(GARP).<br />

Prior to his current position he was the Senior Executive Vice President and Chief <strong>Risk</strong> Officer (CRO) at the<br />

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC). Dr. Mark reported directly to the Chairman and Chief<br />

Executive Officer of CIBC, and was a member of the <strong>Management</strong> Committee. Dr. Mark’s global responsibility<br />

covered all credit, market and operat<strong>in</strong>g risks for all of CIBC as well as for its subsidiaries. Prior to his CRO<br />

position, he was the Corporate Treasurer at CIBC.<br />

Prior to CIBC, he was the Partner <strong>in</strong> charge of the F<strong>in</strong>ancial <strong>Risk</strong> <strong>Management</strong> Consult<strong>in</strong>g at Coopers &<br />

Lybrand (C&L) with<strong>in</strong> the f<strong>in</strong>ancial services practice. The <strong>Risk</strong> <strong>Management</strong> Practice at C&L advised clients<br />

on market and credit risk management issues and was directed toward f<strong>in</strong>ancial <strong>in</strong>stitutions and mult<strong>in</strong>ational<br />

corporations. This specialty area also coord<strong>in</strong>ated the delivery of the firm’s account<strong>in</strong>g, tax, control,<br />

and litigation services to provide clients with <strong>in</strong>tegrated and comprehensive risk management solutions and<br />

opportunities.<br />

Prior to his position at C&L, he was a Manag<strong>in</strong>g Director <strong>in</strong> the Asia, Europe, and Capital Markets Group<br />

(AECM) at Chemical Bank. His responsibilities with<strong>in</strong> AECM encompassed risk management, asset/liability<br />

management, research (quantitative analysis), strategic plann<strong>in</strong>g and analytic systems. He served on the<br />

Senior Credit Committee of the Bank. Before he jo<strong>in</strong>ed Chemical Bank, he was a senior officer at Mar<strong>in</strong>e<br />

Midland Bank/Hong Kong Shanghai Bank Group (HKSB) where he headed the technical analysis trad<strong>in</strong>g<br />

group with<strong>in</strong> the Capital Markets Sector.<br />

He earned his Ph.D., with a dissertation <strong>in</strong> options pric<strong>in</strong>g, from New York University’s Graduate School of<br />

Eng<strong>in</strong>eer<strong>in</strong>g and Science, graduat<strong>in</strong>g first <strong>in</strong> his class. Subsequently, he received an Advanced Professional<br />

Certificate (APC) <strong>in</strong> account<strong>in</strong>g from NYU’s Stern Graduate School of Bus<strong>in</strong>ess, and is a graduate of the<br />

Harvard Bus<strong>in</strong>ess School Advanced <strong>Management</strong> Program. He is an Adjunct Professor and co-author of “<strong>Risk</strong><br />

<strong>Management</strong>” (McGraw-Hill), published <strong>in</strong> October 2000. He served on the board of ISDA and was also the<br />

Chairperson Dr Robert Markof<br />

the National Asset/Liability <strong>Management</strong> Association (NALMA).<br />

2<br />

Black Diamond<br />

416 916 3398


Dr Robert Mark<br />

Black Diamond<br />

416 916 3398<br />

Agenda<br />

• A. Introduction<br />

• B. Framework for <strong>Best</strong> Practice <strong>Risk</strong> <strong>Management</strong><br />

• C. Measurement of Market <strong>Risk</strong><br />

• D. Measurement of Credit <strong>Risk</strong><br />

• E. <strong>Risk</strong> Based Customer Value <strong>Management</strong><br />

• F. Transform<strong>in</strong>g <strong>Risk</strong> <strong>in</strong>to Value<br />

3


A<br />

Introduction*<br />

* For more details, see “<strong>Risk</strong> <strong>Management</strong>” by Crouhy, Galai and Mark<br />

4


Dr Robert Mark<br />

Black Diamond<br />

416 916 3398<br />

Introduction<br />

Global trends are lead<strong>in</strong>g to …<br />

• The ris<strong>in</strong>g importance of risk management In<br />

f<strong>in</strong>ancial <strong>in</strong>stitutions<br />

• More complex markets<br />

Global markets<br />

Greater product Complexity<br />

Increas<strong>in</strong>g competition<br />

New players<br />

Regulatory imbalances<br />

Increased<br />

<strong>Risk</strong><br />

5


Dr Robert Mark<br />

Black Diamond<br />

416 916 3398<br />

F<strong>in</strong>ancial<br />

<strong>Risk</strong>s<br />

Introduction<br />

• <strong>Risk</strong> is Multidimensional<br />

Market <strong>Risk</strong><br />

Credit <strong>Risk</strong><br />

6


Dr Robert Mark<br />

Black Diamond<br />

416 916 3398<br />

Introduction<br />

• One can “slice and dice” these multiple<br />

dimensions of risk*<br />

F<strong>in</strong>ancial<br />

<strong>Risk</strong>s<br />

Market <strong>Risk</strong><br />

Credit <strong>Risk</strong><br />

Equity <strong>Risk</strong><br />

Interest Rate <strong>Risk</strong><br />

Currency <strong>Risk</strong><br />

Commodity <strong>Risk</strong><br />

Transaction <strong>Risk</strong><br />

Portfolio<br />

Concentration<br />

<strong>Risk</strong><br />

Trad<strong>in</strong>g <strong>Risk</strong><br />

Gap <strong>Risk</strong><br />

Counterparty<br />

<strong>Risk</strong><br />

Issuer <strong>Risk</strong><br />

Issue <strong>Risk</strong><br />

“Specific<br />

<strong>Risk</strong>”<br />

General<br />

Market<br />

<strong>Risk</strong><br />

* For more details, see Chapter-1, “<strong>Risk</strong> <strong>Management</strong>” by Crouhy, Galai and Mark<br />

7


B<br />

Framework for <strong>Best</strong> Practice<br />

<strong>Risk</strong> <strong>Management</strong>*<br />

* For more details,see “<strong>Risk</strong> <strong>Management</strong>” by Crouhy, Galai and Mark<br />

8


• Framework for <strong>Risk</strong> <strong>Management</strong><br />

can be benchmarked<br />

<strong>in</strong> terms of:<br />

Policies<br />

Methodologies<br />

Infrastructure<br />

Dr Robert Mark<br />

Black Diamond<br />

416 916 3398<br />

Framework<br />

POLICIES<br />

METHODOLOGIES<br />

INFRASTRUCTURE<br />

9


• Framework for <strong>Risk</strong> <strong>Management</strong><br />

can be benchmarked<br />

<strong>in</strong> terms of:<br />

Policies<br />

Methodologies<br />

Infrastructure<br />

Dr Robert Mark<br />

Black Diamond<br />

416 916 3398<br />

Framework<br />

POLICIES<br />

METHODOLOGIES<br />

Proactive<br />

<strong>Risk</strong><br />

<strong>Management</strong><br />

INFRASTRUCTURE<br />

10


Dr Robert Mark<br />

Black Diamond<br />

416 916 3398<br />

Framework - Policies<br />

Bus<strong>in</strong>ess<br />

Strategies<br />

Independent<br />

First Class<br />

Proactive <strong>Risk</strong><br />

<strong>Management</strong><br />

<strong>Risk</strong><br />

Tolerance<br />

Disclosure<br />

Authorities<br />

11


Dr Robert Mark<br />

Black Diamond<br />

416 916 3398<br />

Framework - Methodologies<br />

RAROC<br />

Independent<br />

First Class<br />

Proactive <strong>Risk</strong><br />

<strong>Management</strong><br />

Valuation<br />

CVM<br />

VaR<br />

12


Dr Robert Mark<br />

Black Diamond<br />

416 916 3398<br />

Framework - Methodologies<br />

Quantification of <strong>Risk</strong><br />

• Value at <strong>Risk</strong> (VaR)<br />

(at a desired confidence level)<br />

– Transaction risk<br />

– Portfolio risk (capture correlation effect)<br />

• Event <strong>Risk</strong><br />

– Reasonable Paranoia<br />

– Scenario Test<strong>in</strong>g<br />

(e.g. volatility and correlation slippage)<br />

13


• Value-At-<strong>Risk</strong> Framework<br />

Dr Robert Mark<br />

Black Diamond<br />

416 916 3398<br />

Framework - Methodologies<br />

Construct families of functions f such that:<br />

f ( )<br />

Volatilities<br />

Correlations<br />

<strong>Risk</strong> = Liquidity Period<br />

Market Value<br />

Etc.<br />

Market<br />

14


• Credit losses are estimated through<br />

analyses of the future distributions of risk<br />

factors<br />

Future Market Value<br />

Dr Robert Mark<br />

Black Diamond<br />

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Framework - Methodologies<br />

Credit<br />

Losses = (<br />

f<br />

)<br />

Exposure Distributions<br />

Default Rate<br />

Distributions<br />

Recovery Rate<br />

Distributions<br />

15


Framework - Methodologies<br />

• Example: Credit exposure profile for<br />

s<strong>in</strong>gle cash flow products<br />

Worst Case Term<strong>in</strong>al Exposure (W T )<br />

Cumulative Average Worst Case<br />

(FE = 2/3 WT )<br />

Dr Robert Mark<br />

Black Diamond<br />

416 916 3398<br />

Expected Term<strong>in</strong>al Exposure<br />

(= W T /5)<br />

Cumulative Average Expected Exposure<br />

(=2/3 x WT /5)<br />

<strong>Best</strong> Case (0)<br />

0<br />

Time (T)<br />

T<br />

“ Worst Case” Credit<br />

Exposure path<br />

“Expected” Credit<br />

Exposure path<br />

16


Framework - Methodologies<br />

• Default Rate Distribution<br />

Dr Robert Mark<br />

Black Diamond<br />

416 916 3398<br />

Distribution of Future Default Rates<br />

DEFAULT RATE<br />

Expected Default Rate Path<br />

“Worst Case”<br />

Default Rate<br />

17


Dr Robert Mark<br />

Black Diamond<br />

416 916 3398<br />

Framework - Methodologies<br />

• Recovery Rate Distribution<br />

RECOVERY RATE<br />

18


•Credit <strong>Risk</strong><br />

EXAMPLE<br />

Dr Robert Mark<br />

Black Diamond<br />

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Methodologies<br />

Distributions of credit risk factors may be comb<strong>in</strong>ed to<br />

produce future credit loss distributions<br />

EXPOSURE<br />

PROBABILITY<br />

DEFAULTS 0<br />

RECOVERIES<br />

CREDIT LOSS<br />

t 0<br />

TIME<br />

t N<br />

19


Framework - Methodologies<br />

• <strong>Risk</strong> Adjusted Return on <strong>Risk</strong> Adjusted<br />

Capital<br />

Revenues<br />

Revenues<br />

Dr Robert Mark<br />

Black Diamond<br />

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Return<br />

Return<br />

on<br />

on<br />

Assets<br />

Assets<br />

Return<br />

Return<br />

on<br />

on<br />

Equity<br />

Equity<br />

<strong>Risk</strong>-Adjusted<br />

<strong>Risk</strong>-Adjusted<br />

Return on<br />

Return on<br />

Capital<br />

Capital<br />

Return on<br />

Return on<br />

<strong>Risk</strong>-Adjusted<br />

<strong>Risk</strong>-Adjusted<br />

Capital<br />

Capital<br />

Evolution of Performance Measures<br />

<strong>Risk</strong>-Adjusted<br />

<strong>Risk</strong>-Adjusted<br />

Return on<br />

Return on<br />

<strong>Risk</strong>-Adjusted<br />

<strong>Risk</strong>-Adjusted<br />

Capital<br />

Capital<br />

Lead<strong>in</strong>g<br />

Edge<br />

Methodology<br />

Methodology<br />

20


Dr Robert Mark<br />

Black Diamond<br />

416 916 3398<br />

Framework - Infrastructure<br />

Operations<br />

Accurate<br />

Data<br />

People<br />

(Skills)<br />

Technology<br />

Independent<br />

First Class<br />

Proactive <strong>Risk</strong><br />

<strong>Management</strong><br />

21


Framework - Infrastructure<br />

• <strong>Risk</strong> MIS<br />

Dr Robert Mark<br />

Black Diamond<br />

416 916 3398<br />

Regions<br />

Transformation<br />

Information Delivery<br />

RISK<br />

WAREHOUSE<br />

Analytical Eng<strong>in</strong>e<br />

VaR<br />

3-D Interface<br />

22


C.<br />

Measurement of<br />

Market <strong>Risk</strong>*<br />

* For more details, see “<strong>Risk</strong> <strong>Management</strong>” by Crouhy, Galai and Mark<br />

23


Dr Robert Mark<br />

Black Diamond<br />

416 916 3398<br />

Measur<strong>in</strong>g Market <strong>Risk</strong><br />

• Market <strong>Risk</strong> Measurement<br />

Methodologies<br />

1.<br />

Notional<br />

2.<br />

Basis Po<strong>in</strong>t<br />

Value (BPV)<br />

3.<br />

Value at <strong>Risk</strong><br />

(RMU)<br />

- Instruments<br />

4.<br />

Value at <strong>Risk</strong><br />

(RMU)<br />

- Portfolio<br />

Increas<strong>in</strong>g Sophistication<br />

24


Dr Robert Mark<br />

Black Diamond<br />

416 916 3398<br />

Measur<strong>in</strong>g Market <strong>Risk</strong><br />

• Sensitivity of T-Note Relative to Benchmark<br />

EXAMPLE<br />

Sensitivity<br />

2.00<br />

1.00<br />

0.00<br />

0.29<br />

0.57<br />

2.1 million<br />

4-year T-note<br />

0.81<br />

1.00<br />

1.28<br />

T-note Maturity<br />

<strong>Risk</strong><br />

Equivalent<br />

1.59<br />

2.10<br />

1 year 2 years 3 years 4 years 5 years 7 years 10 years<br />

}<br />

More<br />

Sensitive<br />

Benchmar<br />

k Less<br />

Sensitive<br />

}<br />

1 million<br />

10-year T-note<br />

25


1 year 91 12 1,092 1.1<br />

2 year<br />

3 year<br />

4 year<br />

177<br />

252<br />

312<br />

*<br />

11<br />

10<br />

10<br />

≅<br />

1,947<br />

2,520<br />

3,120<br />

1.9<br />

2.5<br />

3.1<br />

5 year 400 9 3,600 3.6<br />

7 year 496 9 4,464 4.5<br />

10 year 654 8 5,232 5.2<br />

Dr Robert Mark<br />

Black Diamond<br />

416 916 3398<br />

Measur<strong>in</strong>g Market <strong>Risk</strong><br />

• 3. M<strong>in</strong>i-RMU: The Extended Basis Po<strong>in</strong>t Value<br />

Approach<br />

Instrument<br />

(T-Note)<br />

One Basis<br />

Po<strong>in</strong>t<br />

Value<br />

“Worst Case”<br />

Movement<br />

(bp)<br />

Total<br />

Value<br />

at <strong>Risk</strong> RMUs<br />

2.33σ offers 99% coverage = “Worst Case” movement<br />

26


Dr Robert Mark<br />

Black Diamond<br />

416 916 3398<br />

Measur<strong>in</strong>g Market <strong>Risk</strong><br />

RMU Example<br />

Action Market Value Worst Case <strong>Risk</strong><br />

(RMU)<br />

Long A<br />

Short B<br />

100<br />

100<br />

2<br />

2<br />

27


Dr Robert Mark<br />

Black Diamond<br />

416 916 3398<br />

Measur<strong>in</strong>g Market <strong>Risk</strong><br />

CASE<br />

I<br />

RMU Example<br />

MARKET VALUE COMMENT VALUE AT<br />

RISK (RMU)<br />

A B<br />

$98 $102 4<br />

II $101 ± $103 ± 2<br />

III<br />

IV<br />

$102 $102<br />

$98<br />

?<br />

Perfect Negative<br />

Correlation<br />

(-1.0)<br />

Some Correlation<br />

(.50)<br />

Perfect Positive<br />

Correlation<br />

(+1.0)<br />

No Correlation<br />

(0)<br />

Note: RMU = RMU + RMU − × × RMU × RMU<br />

2 2<br />

A B 2 ρ<br />

A, B A B<br />

0<br />

2.8<br />

28


D.<br />

Measurement of<br />

Credit <strong>Risk</strong>*<br />

* For more details, see “<strong>Risk</strong> <strong>Management</strong>” by Crouhy, Galai and Mark<br />

29


Frequency<br />

Dr Robert Mark<br />

Black Diamond<br />

416 916 3398<br />

Measur<strong>in</strong>g Credit <strong>Risk</strong>:<br />

Source: CIBC<br />

Overview<br />

Typical credit returns<br />

Typical market returns<br />

Portfolio Value<br />

Comparison of the distributions of credit returns and market returns.<br />

30


Dr Robert Mark<br />

Black Diamond<br />

416 916 3398<br />

Probability of default<br />

Distribution<br />

of asset<br />

values at<br />

maturity of<br />

the debt<br />

obligation<br />

Merton’s model<br />

Assets Value<br />

V T<br />

V 0<br />

F<br />

E(V T)=V Oe µT<br />

T<br />

V<br />

T<br />

=<br />

V<br />

0<br />

exp<br />

2 { [ µ − σ ] T + σ TZ }<br />

Probability of default<br />

2<br />

Time<br />

T<br />

31


Based on the option pric<strong>in</strong>g approach to credit<br />

risk as orig<strong>in</strong>ated by Merton (1974)<br />

The firm’s asset value, Vt, follows a<br />

standard geometric Brownian motion, i.e.:<br />

Dr Robert Mark<br />

Black Diamond<br />

416 916 3398<br />

Merton’s Model<br />

2 ⎧ σ<br />

Vt = V0<br />

exp⎨(<br />

µ − ) t + σ t Ζt<br />

⎩ 2<br />

⎫<br />

⎬<br />

⎭<br />

32


Dr Robert Mark<br />

Black Diamond<br />

416 916 3398<br />

Merton’s Model<br />

Bank’s pay-off matrix at times 0 and T for mak<strong>in</strong>g<br />

a loan to Firm CGM and buy<strong>in</strong>g a put on the value<br />

of CGM<br />

Time 0 T<br />

Value of Assets V 0 V T ≤ F V T >F<br />

Bank’s Position:<br />

• make a loan -B0 VT F<br />

• buy a put -P 0 F - V T O<br />

Total -B 0 -P 0 F F<br />

Source: Crouhy, Galai, Mark (1997)<br />

B 0 + P 0 = Fe -rT<br />

Corporate loan = Treasury bond + short a put<br />

33


• Firm CGM is structured as follows:<br />

V t = Value of Assets (at time t)<br />

S t = Value of Equity<br />

B t = Value of Debt (zero-coupon)<br />

F = Face Value of Debt<br />

Dr Robert Mark<br />

Black Diamond<br />

416 916 3398<br />

Merton’s Model<br />

1 P o = f ( V o , F, σ v , r, T )<br />

2 B o = Fe -rT - P o<br />

3 So = Vo - Bo (assum<strong>in</strong>g frictionless<br />

3 markets)<br />

4 Bo = Fe-YT where YT is yield to maturity<br />

5 Probability of Default = g (V o , F, σ v , r, T) = N ( - d 2 )<br />

6 Conditional recovery when default = V T<br />

Source: Crouhy, Galai, Mark (1997)<br />

34


LR<br />

Dr Robert Mark<br />

Black Diamond<br />

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Default spread for corporate debt<br />

( For V 0 = 100, T = 1, and r = 10% )<br />

σ<br />

0.05 0.10 0.20 0.40<br />

0.5 0 0 0 1.0<br />

0.6 0 0 0.1% 2.5%<br />

0.7 0 0 0.4% 5.6%<br />

0.8 0 0.1% 1.5% 8.4%<br />

0.9 0.1% 0.8% 4.1% 12.5%<br />

1.0 2.1% 3.1% 8.3% 17.3%<br />

Source: Crouhy, Galai, Mark (1997)<br />

KMV: Merton’s model<br />

Note:<br />

− ⎛ Fe<br />

LR⎜<br />

≡<br />

⎝ V<br />

0<br />

rT<br />

⎞<br />

⎟<br />

⎠<br />

35


KMV: A Commercial Model<br />

Provides EDF’s<br />

• Distant to default (DD)<br />

Dr Robert Mark<br />

Black Diamond<br />

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Asset Value<br />

V 0<br />

DPT=level of Debt<br />

Expected growth of<br />

assets, net<br />

E(V) 1<br />

0<br />

DD<br />

1 year<br />

Time<br />

36


Dr Robert Mark<br />

Black Diamond<br />

416 916 3398<br />

KMV: EDFs<br />

• Distant to default (DD)<br />

Asset Value<br />

V 0<br />

DPT = STD + ½ LTD<br />

Expected growth of<br />

assets, net<br />

E(V) 1<br />

0<br />

DD<br />

1 year<br />

Time<br />

37


• Derivation of the probabilities of default<br />

from the distance to default<br />

Dr Robert Mark<br />

Black Diamond<br />

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EDF<br />

40 basis po<strong>in</strong>ts<br />

KMV: EDFs<br />

1<br />

2<br />

3<br />

4<br />

5 6<br />

DD<br />

38


EDF of a firm which<br />

actually defaulted<br />

versus Standard &<br />

Poor’s rat<strong>in</strong>g.<br />

Dr Robert Mark<br />

Black Diamond<br />

416 916 3398<br />

KMV: EDFs<br />

• EDF as a predictor of default<br />

S&P<br />

EDF<br />

39


D<br />

<strong>Risk</strong> Based Customer<br />

Value <strong>Management</strong>*<br />

* For more details, see “<strong>Risk</strong> <strong>Management</strong>” by Crouhy, Galai and Mark<br />

40


Functionality Modules<br />

Dr Robert Mark<br />

Black Diamond<br />

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X-Profiler<br />

X-Tractor<br />

X-Seller Systems Adm<strong>in</strong>istration<br />

41


Exist<strong>in</strong>g<br />

Customer Touch<br />

po<strong>in</strong>t<br />

(e.g., 401K rollover<br />

web page)<br />

Dr Robert Mark<br />

Black Diamond<br />

416 916 3398<br />

Example: Xamplify<br />

Observation Agents provide real-time un-<strong>in</strong>trusive<br />

updates on <strong>in</strong>dividual and aggregate customer<br />

characteristics us<strong>in</strong>g key touch po<strong>in</strong>ts.<br />

•<br />

•<br />

•<br />

•<br />

• .<br />

Exist<strong>in</strong>g Siloed<br />

Data Files<br />

Observation Agents<br />

Real-Time<br />

Customer Profile<br />

42


Optimal Decisions for Cross-Sell<strong>in</strong>g<br />

Credit<br />

<strong>Risk</strong><br />

Lifestage<br />

Orientation<br />

Demo<br />

graphics<br />

Dr Robert Mark<br />

Black Diamond<br />

416 916 3398<br />

Psychometrics<br />

Customer<br />

Profile<br />

Channel<br />

Preference<br />

Transaction<br />

History<br />

Customer<br />

State<br />

Interaction<br />

RFM<br />

Causal<br />

Product<br />

Sequence<br />

Geographic<br />

Preferences<br />

Tax Impact<br />

Regulatory<br />

Framework<br />

Competitive<br />

Preference<br />

Bus<strong>in</strong>ess<br />

Objectives<br />

Market<br />

Share<br />

Preference<br />

Capital<br />

Asset<br />

Preferences<br />

Marg<strong>in</strong><br />

Preference<br />

Product Adoption Prediction X-Seller<br />

Profit/<strong>Risk</strong> Trade-offs<br />

Portfolio<br />

Goals<br />

Portfolio<br />

Sensitivity<br />

43


Demographics<br />

Transactions<br />

Psychometrics<br />

Dr Robert Mark<br />

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Psychometric Profiles, comb<strong>in</strong>ed with demographic and<br />

transaction data, allow you to predict responses more<br />

accurately.<br />

• High optimism bias<br />

• Not <strong>in</strong>terested <strong>in</strong> news<br />

• Convenience/statusoriented<br />

• Agreeable/Open<br />

• Relational<br />

Good candidate<br />

for newer activelymanaged<br />

<strong>in</strong>vestments<br />

offered by<br />

telemarket<strong>in</strong>g<br />

• Low regret aversion<br />

• Highly <strong>in</strong>terested <strong>in</strong> news<br />

• Price-sensitive<br />

• Op<strong>in</strong>ionated/Suspicious<br />

• Independent/selfsufficient<br />

Good candidate for<br />

established selfdirected<br />

<strong>in</strong>vestments<br />

offered <strong>in</strong> pr<strong>in</strong>t<br />

44


Adaptive<br />

decision<br />

strategies are<br />

dynamic<br />

+ Real Time<br />

} Collect,<br />

Un-Intrusive<br />

Dr Robert Mark<br />

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<strong>Risk</strong> Based Customer Value<br />

<strong>Management</strong> (RBCVM)<br />

RBCVM is based on an observe, predict and decide<br />

approach<br />

+ Stress Test<strong>in</strong>g &<br />

Scenario Analysis<br />

INCREASING KNOWLEDGE REQUIRED<br />

+Psychometric Analysis<br />

+ Apply Adaptive Strategies<br />

+ Perform <strong>Risk</strong> Analysis &<br />

Allocate Economic Capital<br />

Collect, Observe & Organize Data<br />

<strong>Best</strong> Practice CRBVM <strong>Management</strong><br />

= RBCVM<br />

}Perform Perform Predictive Analysis<br />

45


E<br />

Regulatory Approach*<br />

* For more details, see Chapter-5, “<strong>Risk</strong> <strong>Management</strong>” by Crouhy, Galai and Mark<br />

46


Dr Robert Mark<br />

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M<strong>in</strong>imum<br />

Capital<br />

Requirement<br />

The BIS Capital<br />

Adequacy Paper<br />

Three Basic Pillars<br />

Supervisory<br />

Review Process<br />

Market<br />

Discipl<strong>in</strong>e<br />

Requirements<br />

47


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BIS Menu of Approaches<br />

Should serve to encourage <strong>Best</strong> Practice <strong>Risk</strong> <strong>Management</strong><br />

BIS 98<br />

• For Measur<strong>in</strong>g Market <strong>Risk</strong> (<strong>in</strong> the Trad<strong>in</strong>g Room)<br />

Standardized Approach<br />

Internal VaR Models Approach<br />

BIS 2006<br />

• For Measur<strong>in</strong>g Credit <strong>Risk</strong> (Jan. 2001)<br />

Standardized Approach<br />

Foundation Internal Rat<strong>in</strong>gs-based Approach<br />

Advanced Internal Rat<strong>in</strong>gs-based Approach<br />

BIS 2006<br />

• For Measur<strong>in</strong>g Operational <strong>Risk</strong> (Jan. 2001)<br />

Basic Indicator Approach<br />

Standardized Bus<strong>in</strong>ess L<strong>in</strong>e Approach<br />

Advanced Measurement Approach<br />

48


BIS 2006 has the potential<br />

to be a great step forward<br />

What Are The Implications?<br />

• An <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g sophistication<br />

• A significant transformation<br />

• An <strong>in</strong>tegration of risk measurements<br />

• A greater transparency of risks<br />

• A new way of manag<strong>in</strong>g risk<br />

• Banks can differentiate themselves<br />

Dr Robert Mark<br />

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49


BIS 2006 Does Not Consider All <strong>Risk</strong><br />

Example:<br />

BIS 2006 has the potential to be a great step<br />

forward but<br />

F<strong>in</strong>ancial<br />

<strong>Risk</strong>s<br />

Bus<strong>in</strong>ess<br />

<strong>Risk</strong><br />

Dr Robert Mark<br />

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Not Considered<br />

Market <strong>Risk</strong><br />

Credit <strong>Risk</strong><br />

Operational <strong>Risk</strong><br />

Bus<strong>in</strong>ess <strong>Risk</strong> is a key risk which ultimately cannot<br />

be ignored.<br />

Considered<br />

50


BIS 98 Allowed for Internal Models,<br />

BIS 2006 Does Not<br />

Example:<br />

Basle 2006 has the potential to be a great step<br />

forward, but<br />

F<strong>in</strong>ancial<br />

<strong>Risk</strong>s<br />

Dr Robert Mark<br />

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Market <strong>Risk</strong><br />

Credit <strong>Risk</strong><br />

Operational<br />

<strong>Risk</strong><br />

Equity <strong>Risk</strong><br />

Interest Rate <strong>Risk</strong><br />

Currency <strong>Risk</strong><br />

Commodity <strong>Risk</strong><br />

Transaction <strong>Risk</strong><br />

Portfolio<br />

Concentration <strong>Risk</strong><br />

Trad<strong>in</strong>g <strong>Risk</strong><br />

Gap <strong>Risk</strong><br />

Counterparty<br />

<strong>Risk</strong><br />

Issuer <strong>Risk</strong><br />

Issue <strong>Risk</strong><br />

does not allow <strong>in</strong>ternal models for credit risk<br />

BIS 98<br />

“Specific <strong>Risk</strong>”<br />

General Market<br />

<strong>Risk</strong><br />

51


Applies to the trad<strong>in</strong>g book and encompasses:<br />

Dr Robert Mark<br />

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The 1998 BIS and CAD II Accord<br />

is a great step forward<br />

• General market risk<br />

Change <strong>in</strong> market value result<strong>in</strong>g from<br />

broad market movements.<br />

• Specific risk<br />

(idiosyncratic or credit risk)<br />

Adverse price movements due to<br />

idiosyncratic factors related to <strong>in</strong>dividual<br />

issuers.<br />

52


Dr Robert Mark<br />

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BIS 98 Framework<br />

• …but also for a more accurate allocation of capital<br />

Example:<br />

Portfolio of<br />

100 $1 bonds<br />

diversified across<br />

<strong>in</strong>dustries<br />

Capital charge for specific risk (%)<br />

Internal<br />

model<br />

Standardized<br />

approach<br />

AAA 0.26 1.6<br />

AA 0.77 1.6<br />

A 1.00 1.6<br />

BBB 2.40 1.6<br />

BB 5.24 8<br />

B 8.45 8<br />

CCC 10.26 8<br />

53


BIS 98 Framework<br />

Dr Robert Mark<br />

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Standardized<br />

Approach<br />

AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC<br />

Internal<br />

model<br />

54


Dr Robert Mark<br />

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Standardized Approach:<br />

New Corporate <strong>Risk</strong> Weights (Jan. 2001)<br />

CLAIM AAA<br />

to AA -<br />

A+ to A -<br />

Assessment<br />

BBB +<br />

TO<br />

BBB -<br />

BB + TO<br />

BB -<br />

Below<br />

BB -<br />

Unrated<br />

Corporates 20% 50% 100% 100% 150% 100%<br />

55


<strong>Risk</strong> Components<br />

• Foundation Approach<br />

– PD set by Bank<br />

– LGD, EAD, M set by Regulator<br />

50% LGD for Senior Unsecured<br />

75% LGD for subord<strong>in</strong>ated claims<br />

LGD will be reduced by collateral (F<strong>in</strong>ancial or Physical)<br />

EAD = 75% for irrevocable undrawn commitments 1<br />

M = 3 years<br />

• Advanced Approach<br />

– PD, LGD, EAD, M all set by Bank<br />

– Between 2005 and 2007: floor for advanced<br />

approach @ 90% of foundation approach<br />

Notes<br />

1 0% credit conversion factor applies for unconditionally and immediately cancelable commitments<br />

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Internal Rat<strong>in</strong>gs-Based<br />

Approach<br />

56


Standardized vs. Foundation IRB Approach<br />

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The Foundation Approach charges more capital for non-<strong>in</strong>vestment<br />

grade facilities and less for <strong>in</strong>vestment grade debt than the<br />

Standardized Approach<br />

S&P Rat<strong>in</strong>g<br />

1 Year<br />

Historical<br />

Default<br />

Probability<br />

%<br />

<strong>Risk</strong><br />

Weight<br />

%<br />

Standardized Foundation (Jan 2001)<br />

Capital<br />

charge Per<br />

$100 of<br />

Asset Value<br />

Corporate<br />

BRW <strong>Risk</strong><br />

Weight 1 %<br />

IRB Capital<br />

Charge per<br />

$100 of Asset<br />

Value<br />

(LGD = 50%)<br />

Foundation<br />

Capital<br />

Charge<br />

Divided by<br />

Standardized<br />

Capital<br />

Charge<br />

AAA .01 20 1.6 7 0.56 .35<br />

AA .03 20 1.6 14 1.12 .70<br />

A .04 50 4 17 1.34 .34<br />

BBB .22 100 8 48 3.83 .48<br />

Benchmark .70 100 8 100 8 1<br />

BB .98 100 8 123 9.87 1.23<br />

B 5.30 150 12 342 27.40 2.28<br />

CCC 21.94 150 12 694 50 (55.55) 4.16<br />

Capital Charge for Standard and Poor’s Rat<strong>in</strong>g Categories<br />

BRW = Benchmark <strong>Risk</strong> Weight<br />

57


S&P Rat<strong>in</strong>g<br />

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Foundation vs. Internal Model Approach<br />

Foundation IRB attributes more than twice as much capital as<br />

Internal Models (ISDA)<br />

1 Year<br />

Historical<br />

Default<br />

Probability %<br />

Corporate<br />

BRW <strong>Risk</strong><br />

Weight 1 %<br />

BRW = Benchmark <strong>Risk</strong> Weight<br />

Foundation ISDA<br />

IRB Capital Charge<br />

per $100 of Asset<br />

Value<br />

(LGD = 50%)<br />

Capital<br />

Charge<br />

Incl. EL<br />

(LGD = 50%)<br />

Foundation<br />

Capital Charge<br />

Divided by<br />

ISDA Capital<br />

Charge<br />

AAA .01 7 0.56 0.30 1.9<br />

AA .03 14 1.12 0.44 2.5<br />

A .04 17 1.34 0.59 2.3<br />

BBB .22 48 3.83 1.95 2.0<br />

Benchmark .70 100 8 4.36 1.8<br />

BB .98 123 9.87 5.24 1.9<br />

B 5.30 342 27.40 17.12 1.6<br />

CCC 21.94 694 50 (55.55) 49.75 1.0<br />

58


Dr Robert Mark<br />

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Typology of OR<br />

• Practitioners and Regulators have def<strong>in</strong>ed OR as the<br />

potential for loss due to the failure of people,<br />

process & technology.<br />

• A key challenge for academic researchers is to<br />

create a relevant normative theory for OR.<br />

• A key challenge for academic researchers and<br />

practitioners is to objectively quantify OR as well as<br />

to develop models to determ<strong>in</strong>e the price of OR<br />

<strong>in</strong>surance.<br />

59


The Regulatory Approach To Operational <strong>Risk</strong>:<br />

Four Increas<strong>in</strong>gly <strong>Risk</strong> Sensitive Approaches<br />

Basic Indicator<br />

Approach<br />

Dr Robert Mark<br />

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Rate<br />

<strong>Risk</strong> Based/ less Regulatory Capital:<br />

Standardized<br />

Approach<br />

Bank<br />

Bank<br />

Base<br />

LOB1<br />

β1 EI1 LOB2<br />

LOB3<br />

LOBn<br />

•<br />

•<br />

•<br />

EI 2<br />

EI 3<br />

EI N<br />

β 2<br />

β 3<br />

β N<br />

Internal Measurement Approach<br />

Bank<br />

LOB1<br />

LOB2<br />

LOB3<br />

LOBn<br />

EI 11<br />

EI 21<br />

EI 13<br />

•<br />

•<br />

•<br />

Loss Type 1<br />

EI N1<br />

Rate 11<br />

Rate 21<br />

Rate N1<br />

•<br />

•<br />

•<br />

Loss Type 6<br />

EI 16<br />

EI 26<br />

EI 36<br />

EI N6<br />

Rate 16<br />

Rate 26<br />

Rate 31 Rate 36<br />

•<br />

•<br />

•<br />

Rate N6<br />

Loss Distribution<br />

Approach<br />

Expected<br />

Loss<br />

Probability<br />

Severe<br />

Unexpected<br />

Loss<br />

60<br />

Catastrophic<br />

Unexpected<br />

Loss<br />

Loss


Op <strong>Risk</strong> Capital (OpVaR) = EI LOB x PE LOB x LGE LOB x γ <strong>in</strong>dustry x RPI LOB<br />

Dr Robert Mark<br />

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The Internal Measurement Approach<br />

LR firm<br />

EI = Exposure Index<br />

e.g. no of transactions * average value of transaction<br />

PE = Expected Probability of an operational risk event<br />

e.g. number of loss events / number of transactions<br />

LGE = Average Loss Rate per event<br />

e.g. average loss/ average value of transaction<br />

LR = Loss Rate<br />

( PE x LGE)<br />

Is a step <strong>in</strong> the right direction<br />

Rate<br />

γ = Factor to convert the expected loss to unexpected loss<br />

RPI = Adjusts for the non-l<strong>in</strong>ear relationship between EI and OpVar<br />

(RPI = <strong>Risk</strong> Profile Index)<br />

61


Examples of Operational <strong>Risk</strong> Losses Types<br />

1. Legal Liability:<br />

<strong>in</strong>cludes client, employee and other third party law suits<br />

2 . Regulatory, Compliance and Taxation Penalties:<br />

f<strong>in</strong>es, or the cost of any other penalties, such as license revocations<br />

and associated costs - excludes lost / forgone revenue.<br />

3 . Loss of or Damage to Assets:<br />

reduction <strong>in</strong> value of the firm’s non-f<strong>in</strong>ancial asset and property<br />

4 . Client Restitution:<br />

<strong>in</strong>cludes restitution payments (pr<strong>in</strong>cipal and/or <strong>in</strong>terest) or other<br />

compensation to clients.<br />

5 . Theft, Fraud and Unauthorized Activities:<br />

<strong>in</strong>cludes rogue trad<strong>in</strong>g<br />

6. Transaction Process<strong>in</strong>g <strong>Risk</strong>:<br />

<strong>in</strong>cludes failed or late settlement, wrong amount or wrong counterparty<br />

Dr Robert Mark<br />

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62


20%<br />

16%<br />

12%<br />

8%<br />

4%<br />

Dr Robert Mark<br />

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The Components of OP VaR<br />

e.g. VISA Per $100 transaction<br />

1.3 9<br />

Number of Unauthorized Transaction<br />

The Probability<br />

Distribution<br />

PE = .13%<br />

e.g. on average 1.3<br />

transaction per<br />

1,000 (PE) are fraudulent<br />

Note: worst case is 9<br />

70%<br />

60%<br />

+<br />

50%<br />

40%<br />

30%<br />

=<br />

0%<br />

70<br />

Loss per $1 00 Fraudulent Transaction<br />

The Severity<br />

Distribution<br />

LGE = $70<br />

e.g. on average 70%<br />

(LGE) of the value of<br />

the transaction have to<br />

be written off<br />

Note: worst case is 100<br />

Note: 1 LR = PE x LGE = 0.13% x $70 = 9.1 cents<br />

Expected<br />

Loss<br />

Probability<br />

Severe<br />

Unexpected<br />

Loss<br />

100 9 52<br />

Loss per $1 00Transaction<br />

The Loss<br />

Distribution<br />

LR = 9¢ 1<br />

Catastrophic<br />

Unexpected<br />

Loss<br />

Loss<br />

e.g. on average 9.1 cents<br />

per $100 of transaction<br />

(LR)<br />

Note: worst case is 52<br />

63


F<br />

Transform<strong>in</strong>g<br />

<strong>Risk</strong> <strong>in</strong>to Value*<br />

* For more details, see “<strong>Risk</strong> <strong>Management</strong>” by Crouhy, Galai and Mark<br />

64


Dr Robert Mark<br />

Black Diamond<br />

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Transform<strong>in</strong>g <strong>Risk</strong> <strong>in</strong>to Value<br />

• Implementation of <strong>Risk</strong> Models is<br />

a key <strong>in</strong>put<br />

Value Added<br />

<strong>Risk</strong> Models<br />

65


Dr Robert Mark<br />

Black Diamond<br />

416 916 3398<br />

Transform<strong>in</strong>g <strong>Risk</strong> <strong>in</strong>to Value<br />

Value Added<br />

<strong>Risk</strong><br />

Models<br />

Models<br />

66


Transform<strong>in</strong>g <strong>Risk</strong> <strong>in</strong>to Value<br />

• Value <strong>Management</strong> is a key<br />

component of first class<br />

proactive <strong>Risk</strong><br />

<strong>Management</strong><br />

+ Monitor<br />

Identify<br />

& Avoid<br />

Dr Robert Mark<br />

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INCREASING KNOWLEDGE REQUIRED<br />

+ Market VaR, Credit VaR, Op VaR<br />

+ Performance Measurement<br />

+ Facilitate Pric<strong>in</strong>g<br />

+ Account<strong>in</strong>g Capital<br />

+ Economic (<strong>Risk</strong>) Capital<br />

+ Regulatory Capital (BIS 2005 + )<br />

+ Stress Test & Scenario Analysis<br />

Limit <strong>Management</strong><br />

First Class <strong>Risk</strong> <strong>Management</strong><br />

= Active Value<br />

<strong>Management</strong><br />

Attribute Capital<br />

<strong>Risk</strong> Analysis<br />

67


Appendix<br />

Dr Robert Mark<br />

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ANNOUNCING<br />

700 pages<br />

ISBN: 0-07-135731-9<br />

$70.00<br />

To Order Call:<br />

1-800-2-MCGRAW<br />

Fax Orders to:<br />

1-614-755-5645<br />

<strong>Risk</strong> <strong>Management</strong><br />

Michel Crouhy, Dan Galai,<br />

and Robert Mark<br />

The All-<strong>in</strong>-One Banker's and<br />

F<strong>in</strong>ancial Manager's Guide for<br />

Implement<strong>in</strong>g ⎯ and Us<strong>in</strong>g ⎯ an<br />

Effective <strong>Risk</strong> <strong>Management</strong> Program<br />

In today’s world of multibillion-dollar credit<br />

losses and bailouts, it has become <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>gly imperative<br />

for corporate and bank<strong>in</strong>g leaders to monitor and manage<br />

risk⎯on all fronts. <strong>Risk</strong> <strong>Management</strong> <strong>in</strong>troduces and<br />

explores the latest f<strong>in</strong>ancial and hedg<strong>in</strong>g techniques <strong>in</strong> use<br />

around the world, and provides the foundation for creat<strong>in</strong>g<br />

an <strong>in</strong>tegrated, consistent, and effective risk management<br />

strategy.<br />

<strong>Risk</strong> <strong>Management</strong> presents a straightforward, nononsense<br />

exam<strong>in</strong>ation of the modern risk management<br />

function — and is today’s best risk management resource<br />

for bankers and f<strong>in</strong>ancial managers. Its tested and<br />

comprehensive analyses and <strong>in</strong>sights will give you all the<br />

<strong>in</strong>formation you need for:<br />

• <strong>Risk</strong> <strong>Management</strong> Overview —<br />

From the history of risk management to the new<br />

regulatory and trad<strong>in</strong>g environment, a look at risk<br />

management past and present<br />

• <strong>Risk</strong> <strong>Management</strong> Program Design —<br />

Techniques to organize the risk management<br />

function, and design a system to cover your<br />

organization’s many risk exposures<br />

• <strong>Risk</strong> <strong>Management</strong> Implementation —<br />

How to use the myriad systems and<br />

products⎯value at risk (VaR), stress-test<strong>in</strong>g,<br />

derivatives, and more⎯for measur<strong>in</strong>g and<br />

hedg<strong>in</strong>g risk <strong>in</strong> today’s marketplace<br />

In the f<strong>in</strong>ancial world, the need for a dedicated<br />

risk management framework is a relatively recent<br />

phenomenon. But as the recent crises attest, lack of up-todate<br />

knowledge concern<strong>in</strong>g its many components can be<br />

devastat<strong>in</strong>g. For f<strong>in</strong>ancial managers <strong>in</strong> both the bank<strong>in</strong>g<br />

and bus<strong>in</strong>ess environments, <strong>Risk</strong> <strong>Management</strong> will<br />

<strong>in</strong>troduce and illustrate the many aspects of modern risk<br />

management⎯and strengthen every f<strong>in</strong>ancial risk<br />

management program.<br />

68


Dr Robert Mark<br />

Black Diamond<br />

416 916 3398<br />

CONTENTS ABOUT THE<br />

AUTHORS<br />

Chapter 1: The Need for <strong>Risk</strong> <strong>Management</strong> Systems<br />

Chapter 2: The New Regulatory and Corporate<br />

Environment<br />

Chapter 3: Structur<strong>in</strong>g and Manag<strong>in</strong>g the <strong>Risk</strong><br />

<strong>Management</strong> Function<br />

Chapter 4: The New BIS Capital Requirements for<br />

F<strong>in</strong>ancial <strong>Risk</strong>s<br />

Chapter 5: Measur<strong>in</strong>g Market <strong>Risk</strong>: The VaR Approach<br />

Chapter 6: Measur<strong>in</strong>g Market <strong>Risk</strong>: Extensions of the<br />

VaR Approach and Test<strong>in</strong>g the Models<br />

Chapter 7: Credit Rat<strong>in</strong>g Systems<br />

Chapter 8: Credit Migration Approach to Measur<strong>in</strong>g<br />

Credit <strong>Risk</strong><br />

Chapter 9: The Cont<strong>in</strong>gent Claim Approach to<br />

Measur<strong>in</strong>g Credit <strong>Risk</strong><br />

Chapter 10: Other Approaches: The Actuarial and<br />

Reduced-form Approaches to Measur<strong>in</strong>g<br />

Credit <strong>Risk</strong><br />

Chapter 11: Comparison of Industry-sponsored Credit<br />

Models and Associated Back-Test<strong>in</strong>g<br />

Issues<br />

Chapter 12: Hedg<strong>in</strong>g Credit <strong>Risk</strong><br />

Chapter 13: Manag<strong>in</strong>g Operational <strong>Risk</strong><br />

Chapter 14: Capital Allocation and Performance<br />

Measurement<br />

Chapter 15: Model <strong>Risk</strong><br />

Chapter 16: <strong>Risk</strong> <strong>Management</strong> <strong>in</strong> Nonbank<br />

Corporations<br />

Chapter 17: <strong>Risk</strong> <strong>Management</strong> <strong>in</strong> the Future<br />

Michel Crouhy, Ph.D., is senior vice president, Global<br />

Analytics, <strong>Risk</strong> <strong>Management</strong> Division at Canadian Imperial<br />

Bank of Commerce (CIBC), where he is <strong>in</strong> charge of<br />

market and credit risk analytics. He has published<br />

extensively <strong>in</strong> academic journals, is currently associate<br />

editor of both Journal of Derivatives and Journal of<br />

Bank<strong>in</strong>g and F<strong>in</strong>ance, and is on the editorial board of<br />

Journal of <strong>Risk</strong>.<br />

Dan Galai, Ph.D., is the Abe Gray Professor of F<strong>in</strong>ance<br />

and Bus<strong>in</strong>ess Adm<strong>in</strong>istration at Hebrew University and a<br />

pr<strong>in</strong>cipal of Sigma P.C.M. Dr. Galai has consulted for the<br />

Chicago Board Options Exchange and the American Stock<br />

Exchange and published numerous articles <strong>in</strong> lead<strong>in</strong>g<br />

journals. He was the w<strong>in</strong>ner of the First Annual Pomeranze<br />

Prize for excellence <strong>in</strong> options research presented by the<br />

CBOE.<br />

Robert Mark, Ph.D., is senior executive vice president at<br />

the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce. Dr. Mark is the<br />

chief risk officer at CIBC. He is a member of the senior<br />

executive team of the bank and reports directly to the<br />

chairman. In 1998, Dr. Mark was named F<strong>in</strong>ancial <strong>Risk</strong><br />

Manager of the Year by the Global Association of <strong>Risk</strong><br />

Professionals (GARP).<br />

69

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