Boomburbs at “Buildout”
Boomburbs at “Buildout”
Boomburbs at “Buildout”
Create successful ePaper yourself
Turn your PDF publications into a flip-book with our unique Google optimized e-Paper software.
<strong>Boomburbs</strong> <strong>at</strong><br />
<strong>“Buildout”</strong><br />
Future Development in Large, Fast-<br />
Growing Suburbs<br />
Robert E. Lang, Ph.D.<br />
Metropolitan Institute<br />
<strong>at</strong> Virginia Tech<br />
January 21, 2005
Wh<strong>at</strong> is a Boomburb?<br />
Incorpor<strong>at</strong>ed places with > 100,000 people.<br />
Not the largest city in their Metropolitan Area.<br />
Double-digit growth r<strong>at</strong>es for the past 3 decades.<br />
Mostly in Southwestern U.S.<br />
Are loc<strong>at</strong>ed in the n<strong>at</strong>ion’s 50 largest metropolitan<br />
areas as of the 2000 census.<br />
Baby <strong>Boomburbs</strong> are smaller versions 50 to 100K.
The 54 <strong>Boomburbs</strong><br />
Arizona: Chandler, Gilbert, Glendale, Mesa, Peoria, Scottsdale, Tempe<br />
California: Anaheim, Chula Vista, Corona, Costa Mesa, Daly City, Escondido,<br />
Fontana, Fremont, Fullerton, Irvine, Lancaster, Moreno Valley, Oceanside,<br />
Ontario, Orange, Oxnard, Palmdale, Rancho Cucamonga, Riverside, San<br />
Bernardino, Santa Ana, Santa Clarita, Santa Rosa, Simi Valley, Sunnyvale,<br />
Thousand Oaks<br />
Colorado: Aurora, Lakewood, Westminster<br />
Florida: Coral Springs, Hialeah, Pembroke Pines, Clearw<strong>at</strong>er<br />
Nevada: Henderson, North Las Vegas<br />
Texas: Arlington, Carrollton, Garland, Grand Prairie, Irving, Mesquite, Plano<br />
Other St<strong>at</strong>es: Naperville, IL; Salem, OR; West Valley City, UT; Chesapeake, VA;<br />
Bellevue, WA
The 84 Baby <strong>Boomburbs</strong><br />
California: Antioch, Apple Valley, Chino, Cupertino, Davis, Fairfield, Folsom,<br />
Gardena, Hemet, Hesperia, Laguna Niguel, Livermore, Lynwood,<br />
Milpitas, Mission Viejo, Napa, Petaluma, Pittsburg, Pleasanton, Rialto,<br />
Roseville, San Marcos, Santa Cruz, South G<strong>at</strong>e, Tustin, Union, Vacaville,<br />
Victorville, Vista, Yorba Linda<br />
Colorado: Greeley, Longmont, Thornton<br />
Florida: Boca R<strong>at</strong>on, Boynton Beach, Davie, Deerfield Beach, Del Ray Beach,<br />
Lauderhill, Marg<strong>at</strong>e, Miramar, North Miami, Plant<strong>at</strong>ion, Sunrise, Tamarac<br />
Georgia: Marietta, Roswell<br />
Illinois: Elgin, Orland Park, Pal<strong>at</strong>ine<br />
Maryland: Frederick, Gaithersburg<br />
Minnesota: Brooklyn Park, Burnesville, Coon Rapids, Eagan, Eden Prairie, Maple<br />
Grove, Plymouth
More Baby <strong>Boomburbs</strong><br />
Missouri: Lee’s Summit, St. Charles, St. Peters<br />
Oklahoma: Edmond, Norman<br />
Oregon: Beaverton, Gresham, Hillsboro<br />
Texas: Denton, Flower Mound, Lewisville, Missouri, Round Rock, Sugar Land<br />
Utah: Layton, Sandy, West Jordan<br />
Washington: Federal Way, Kent, Renton<br />
Other St<strong>at</strong>es: Cary, NC; Murfreesboro, TN; Ol<strong>at</strong>he, KS; Rochester Hills, MI;<br />
Waukesha, WI
Where are They by Region?<br />
Region<br />
MW/NE<br />
West<br />
South<br />
Total<br />
No. of<br />
<strong>Boomburbs</strong><br />
1<br />
41<br />
12<br />
54<br />
No. of Baby<br />
<strong>Boomburbs</strong><br />
14<br />
43<br />
29<br />
86<br />
Total in Region<br />
15<br />
84<br />
41<br />
140
Popul<strong>at</strong>ion (thousands)<br />
900<br />
800<br />
700<br />
600<br />
500<br />
400<br />
300<br />
200<br />
100<br />
Mesa vs. St Louis: 1950-2000<br />
0<br />
Crossing P<strong>at</strong>hs:<br />
Some "<strong>Boomburbs</strong>" Have Surpassed Traditional Cities<br />
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000<br />
Source: Fannie Mae Found<strong>at</strong>ion.<br />
St. Louis, MO Mesa, AZ
<strong>“Buildout”</strong><br />
Refers to the point <strong>at</strong> which development has<br />
reached a city’s borders or has exhausted largescale<br />
greenfield options<br />
Controversial topic<br />
Not just how much land remains, but how it will<br />
be used
Boomburb Buildout Survey<br />
140 Surveyed, 87 provided complete<br />
answers<br />
41 <strong>Boomburbs</strong>, 46 Baby <strong>Boomburbs</strong><br />
Telephone and In-Person interviews<br />
M<strong>at</strong>rix provided in conference paper
Questions for Planning Depts:<br />
Wh<strong>at</strong> percent of the city was left until buildout?<br />
Wh<strong>at</strong> year would buildout occur?<br />
Wh<strong>at</strong> will be the buildout popul<strong>at</strong>ion?<br />
Grow denser or less dense?<br />
Plans for passenger rail?<br />
Plans for transit-oriented development?<br />
Plans for mixed-use development?<br />
Plans for annex<strong>at</strong>ion?
Buildout Analysis Findings:<br />
More than half the <strong>Boomburbs</strong> will be <strong>at</strong> their<br />
buildout point by 2020<br />
Most <strong>Boomburbs</strong> expect to grow denser<br />
Over 1/3 have stopped annexing land<br />
Many have < 10% of land left to develop<br />
Almost half have or are planning passenger rail<br />
connections and a significant share of these<br />
places expect TOD
“Builtout” <strong>Boomburbs</strong><br />
Tempe, AZ<br />
Mission Viejo, CA<br />
Oceanside, CA<br />
Santa Ana, CA<br />
Sunnyvale, CA<br />
Lakewood, CO<br />
Hillsboro, OR<br />
Pal<strong>at</strong>ine, IL
Transit and The Ballot<br />
55 Transport<strong>at</strong>ion Initi<strong>at</strong>ives in 2004 election<br />
17 Affected <strong>Boomburbs</strong>--16 included<br />
provisions for transit, not just roads.<br />
14 Passed
Case Studies<br />
“The Holdouts”<br />
Gilbert, AZ<br />
Chandler, AZ<br />
North Las Vegas, NV<br />
“Town and Country”<br />
Garland, TX<br />
Plano, TX<br />
Lakewood, TX<br />
Politics of Buildout:<br />
Scottsdale vs. Tempe, AZ<br />
Riverside, CA<br />
Fontana, CA
Gilbert, Arizona:<br />
The Biggest “Town” in America<br />
Reluctant City<br />
No Light Rail, Thank<br />
You<br />
Land Locked<br />
Mostly Single Use<br />
Development Planned
Chandler, Arizona:<br />
Planning for Less People<br />
“Quality Only”<br />
Big House, Big Lot<br />
Upscale Infill in the<br />
Downtown
North Las Vegas, Nevada:<br />
Big Skies, Small Lots<br />
Bureau of Land<br />
Management (BLM)<br />
Fast Rising Home<br />
Prices<br />
Affordable Housing?
Plano, Texas:<br />
From Boomtown to Built Up ‘Burb<br />
Mayor Recognizes<br />
Niche<br />
TOD <strong>at</strong> DART St<strong>at</strong>ion<br />
Competition from<br />
neighboring Baby<br />
<strong>Boomburbs</strong>
Lakewood, Colorado:<br />
Arlington, VA of the West<br />
Growth slowing<br />
Fewer traditional<br />
families<br />
Light Rail<br />
Planning for Infill
Scottsdale vs. Tempe<br />
Rusk’s Cities Without Suburbs<br />
Tempe decided not to annex<br />
Did not want split in neighborhoods<br />
Fl<strong>at</strong> tax base<br />
Scottsdale did annex<br />
Low-density buildout plans<br />
North/South split
Riverside, California<br />
Went from 78 to 90 acres<br />
Building high-end housing<br />
Simultaneous expansion and densific<strong>at</strong>ion<br />
Growth is bifurc<strong>at</strong>ed by income
Fontana, California<br />
A Tale of Three Cities<br />
Income Disparities<br />
Power shift to affluent neighborhoods<br />
Ward based government?
www.mi.vt.edu
Change language