Biol 436 Population Ecology and Global Climate Change

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Sept. 23 Special Topic: Role of humans in Earth’s environment Sept. 28 Exam I Section 2: Single-species dynamics Sept. 30 Special Topic: Does a little warming really matter? Oct. 5 *Resources, reproduction, and trophic mismatch Oct. 7 Special Topic: Fossil Fuels Oct. 12 The niche concept and climate change Oct. 14 Special Topic: What can we do about warming? Oct. 19 Threatened & Endangered Species Unit II Oct. 21 Bioclimatic envelope modeling and species’ range shifts Post et al. 1999. PNAS 96:4467-4471 Both et al. 2006. Nature 441:81-83 Tingley et al. 2009. PNAS 106:19,637- 19,643. Davis et al. 1998. Nature 391:783-786. Oct. 26 Population dynamics and stability Post & Forchhammer 2002. Nature 420:168-171 Oct. 28 Section 3: Multi-species dynamics Exam II Nov. 2 Special Topic: Inter-connected changes Nov. 4 Communities dynamics and stability Nov. 9 Special Topic: Biodiversity crisis Moritz et al. 2008. Science 322:261-264. Nov. 11 The importance of species interactions Post & Pedersen 2008. PNAS 105:12,353- 12,358. Nov. 16 Special Topic: Extinctions Nov. 18 *Ecosystem function Nov. 30 Threatened & Endangered Species Unit III Dec. 2 Extinction risk from climate change Dec. 7 Special Topic: Politics of Climate Change Dec. 9 Exam III Zhao & Running 2010. Science 329:940- 943. Thomas et al. 2004 Nature 427:145-148 2
Threatened & Endangered Species units You will be assigned a species early in the semester, and will work in groups of 3 throughout the semester to identify the vulnerability of a given species to climate change and other stressors. On three occasions, one member of the group will make a brief presentation on your species; i.e., you will make one presentation (5 – 10 minutes long). The objective for the class as a whole is to determine which species is/are most likely to be adversely affected by climate change and other stressors, and which is/are least likely to be affected. To make these determinations, you will work outside of class (alone or in groups) to rank your species according to several variables provided below. Unit I: Baseline vulnerability (presented Sept. 16) Rank your species according to: 1. Current population size: 1: n < 100; 2: 100 < n < 1000; 3: n > 1000 2. Population trend: 1: declining; 2: stable; 3: increasing 3. Range trend: 1: declining; 2: stable; 3: increasing 4. Future stressors (non-climate): 1: increasing; 2: stable; 3: declining 5. Generation time: 1: t > 5 years; 2: 5 > t > 2; 3: t < 2 6. Future vulnerability to natural stressors: 1: highly vulnerable; 2: vulnerable; 3: not vulnerable Unit II: Vulnerability to climate change (presented Oct. 19) Rank your species according to: 1. Vulnerability to temperature change: 1: adverse; 2: insensitive; 3: beneficial 2. Vulnerability to precipitation change: 1: adverse; 2: insensitive; 3: beneficial 3. Dispersive capacity: 1: low; 2: moderate; 3: high 4. Degree of habitat specialization: 1: highly specialized; 2: moderately specialized; 3: generalist 5. Probable habitat loss due to climate change: 1: loss; 2: no change; 3: gain 6. Availability of habitat in new range: 1: none; 2: limited extent; 3: large extent Unit III: Evaluating overall vulnerability (presented Nov. 30) Here you will present a synthesis of the above rankings in the following matrix format. You will attempt to identify the most critical combinations of vulnerability for your species. You will also categorize your species overall as: critically vulnerable, highly vulnerable, less vulnerable, least vulnerable, or likely to benefit from climate change. How you arrive at your conclusion is up to you to decide, but be sure you can explain your thinking. Climate Change Vulnerabilities 1 2 3 4 5 6 Baseline Vulnerabilities 1 2 3 4 5 6 3
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Biol 436 Population Ecology and Global Climate Change

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