Biol 436 Population Ecology and Global Climate Change

Biol 436 Population Ecology and Global Climate Change
Fall 2010
215 Thomas Bldg., T & Th 9:45 – 11:00
Instructor: Prof. Eric Post
Email: esp10@psu.edu; phone 865-1556
Office hours: 325 Mueller, Tuesdays from 11:00 a.m. – 12:00 p.m.
Course Syllabus (subject to minor modifications)
Text: There is no required text for this course, but lectures will be drawn from material in Population Ecology,
3 rd edition. M. Begon, M. Mortimer, & D. J. Thompson; The Evolution of Life Histories, S.C. Stearns; The
Descent of Man and Selection in Relation to Sex, C. Darwin; and The Theory of Sex Allocation, E.L. Charnov,
as well as recent literature on climate change. NOTE: The assigned readings pertain to journal articles that
will supplement discussion during lectures. You will also be responsible for articles appear in the Science
Tuesday section of the New York Times. Material from NY Times articles will supplement discussions.
Grades will be based on three exams (20% each), a brief in-class presentation (20%), and regular in-class
participation on Special Topics (20%). To get full credit for Special Topics, you must submit to me via
email a brief written evaluation of each week’s topic, or that week’s NY Times science article,
summarizing only its effective and ineffective points. Each week’s Special Topics evaluation is due by the
end of the day on that topic’s date. Students will be required to follow the guidelines concerning academic
integrity as described in the Penn State University Faculty Senate Policy 49-20
(http://www.psu.edu/dept/ufs/policies/47-00.html#49-20).
Date Topic Suggested Reading
Section 1: Population Characteristics
Aug. 24 Introduction
Aug. 26 The major climate systems and IPCC change
scenarios
Aug. 31 Special Topic: Global warming – or natural
variation?
Sept. 2 Ice Age extinctions
Hansen, J. et al. 2006. PNAS 103:14,288-
14,293.
Guthrie, R.D. 2006. Nature 441:207-209
Sept. 7 Special Topic: Will warming lead to a new
Ice Age?
Sept. 9 Life history variation and phenology Root et al. 2003. Nature 421:57-60
Sept. 14 Special Topic: How sensitive is the Arctic?
Sept. 16 Threatened & Endangered Species Unit I
Sept. 21 Sex differences and implications for response to
climate change
Møller, A.P. 2004. Global Change
Biology 10: 2028-2035
1

Sept. 23 Special Topic: Role of humans in Earth’s
environment
Sept. 28 Exam I
Section 2:
Single-species dynamics
Sept. 30 Special Topic: Does a little warming really
matter?
Oct. 5 *Resources, reproduction, and trophic
mismatch
Oct. 7 Special Topic: Fossil Fuels
Oct. 12
The niche concept and climate change
Oct. 14 Special Topic: What can we do about
warming?
Oct. 19 Threatened & Endangered Species Unit II
Oct. 21 Bioclimatic envelope modeling and species’
range shifts
Post et al. 1999. PNAS 96:4467-4471
Both et al. 2006. Nature 441:81-83
Tingley et al. 2009. PNAS 106:19,637-
19,643.
Davis et al. 1998. Nature 391:783-786.
Oct. 26 Population dynamics and stability Post & Forchhammer 2002. Nature
420:168-171
Oct. 28
Section 3: Multi-species dynamics
Exam II
Nov. 2 Special Topic: Inter-connected changes
Nov. 4 Communities dynamics and stability
Nov. 9 Special Topic: Biodiversity crisis
Moritz et al. 2008. Science 322:261-264.
Nov. 11 The importance of species interactions Post & Pedersen 2008. PNAS 105:12,353-
12,358.
Nov. 16 Special Topic: Extinctions
Nov. 18 *Ecosystem function
Nov. 30 Threatened & Endangered Species Unit III
Dec. 2 Extinction risk from climate change
Dec. 7 Special Topic: Politics of Climate Change
Dec. 9 Exam III
Zhao & Running 2010. Science 329:940-
943.
Thomas et al. 2004 Nature 427:145-148
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Threatened & Endangered Species units
You will be assigned a species early in the semester, and will work in groups of 3 throughout the semester to
identify the vulnerability of a given species to climate change and other stressors. On three occasions, one
member of the group will make a brief presentation on your species; i.e., you will make one presentation (5 –
10 minutes long). The objective for the class as a whole is to determine which species is/are most likely to be
adversely affected by climate change and other stressors, and which is/are least likely to be affected. To make
these determinations, you will work outside of class (alone or in groups) to rank your species according to
several variables provided below.
Unit I: Baseline vulnerability (presented Sept. 16)
Rank your species according to:
1. Current population size: 1: n < 100; 2: 100 < n < 1000; 3: n > 1000
2. Population trend: 1: declining; 2: stable; 3: increasing
3. Range trend: 1: declining; 2: stable; 3: increasing
4. Future stressors (non-climate): 1: increasing; 2: stable; 3: declining
5. Generation time: 1: t > 5 years; 2: 5 > t > 2; 3: t < 2
6. Future vulnerability to natural stressors: 1: highly vulnerable; 2: vulnerable; 3: not vulnerable
Unit II: Vulnerability to climate change (presented Oct. 19)
Rank your species according to:
1. Vulnerability to temperature change: 1: adverse; 2: insensitive; 3: beneficial
2. Vulnerability to precipitation change: 1: adverse; 2: insensitive; 3: beneficial
3. Dispersive capacity: 1: low; 2: moderate; 3: high
4. Degree of habitat specialization: 1: highly specialized; 2: moderately specialized; 3: generalist
5. Probable habitat loss due to climate change: 1: loss; 2: no change; 3: gain
6. Availability of habitat in new range: 1: none; 2: limited extent; 3: large extent
Unit III: Evaluating overall vulnerability (presented Nov. 30)
Here you will present a synthesis of the above rankings in the following matrix format. You will attempt to
identify the most critical combinations of vulnerability for your species. You will also categorize your species
overall as: critically vulnerable, highly vulnerable, less vulnerable, least vulnerable, or likely to benefit from
climate change. How you arrive at your conclusion is up to you to decide, but be sure you can explain
your thinking.
Climate
Change
Vulnerabilities
1
2
3
4
5
6
Baseline Vulnerabilities
1 2 3 4 5 6
3