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Insurance Company Capital Structure Swaps and Shareholder Wealth

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Table 3: Loss Volatility Understated<br />

Changes in Insider shareholder wealth following recapitalizations of insurance companies. Calculated using Merton-Margrabe model. The<br />

first model shows the capital structure of the firm <strong>and</strong> equity <strong>and</strong> loss value estimates of both the manager (Insider) <strong>and</strong> market participants<br />

(market). The second model shows the change in shareholder wealth resulting from issuing $500 in equity at the market per-share price <strong>and</strong><br />

using the proceeds to purchase reinsurance at the market price. The third model shows the change in shareholder wealth resulting from selling<br />

$200 in new policies at the market price <strong>and</strong> using the proceeds to retire equity at the per-share market price.<br />

High Primary Premiums Available Issue Equity Retire Equity<br />

Insider Market Insider Market Insider Market<br />

Asset Value 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500<br />

Expected Loss 1000 1000 500 500 1200 1200<br />

Asset Volatility 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19<br />

Loss Volatility 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.1<br />

Time 1 1 1 1 1 1<br />

Asset/Loss Correlation 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25<br />

25<br />

Equity Value 538.58 501.43 1000.29 1000 394.80 315.37<br />

Loss Value 961.42 998.57 499.71 500 1105.20 1184.63<br />

50.14%<br />

62.89%<br />

Controlling Portion of Initial<br />

Equity<br />

Controlling Portion of Post-<br />

Swap Equity<br />

-37.00 56.06<br />

Change in Controlling Equity<br />

Insider Value

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