DTS Paper.qxp - Royal Aeronautical Society

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terms of technology trade with the US. It also remains the case that European governments still constrain investment in their national defence industries. Recent moves to limit national protectionism in the EU defence market — notably through the establishment of the European Procurement Agency — should improve matters. This is still too little, if not too late, to match the relative openness of the UK defence market and to create a more balanced and competitive international environment for UK defence companies. The drift of both the DIS and particularly the DTS is to see much of the future military aerospace provision to be satisfied from a global market. With the exception of commitments to aspects of UAS research, much of the current military aerospace technology base will steadily diminish. The mission systems sector should find business in upgrading and serial development but, without lead platforms developed in the UK, equipment companies may find international competition even fiercer. The temptation to move more of their operations and research offshore to access a new generation of aerospace platform will become even more intense. 36. The DTS recognises the importance generally of international collaboration but there is no overt preference for partners, other than the benefits co-operation may bring to satisfying the MoD’s needs outside of those associated with maintaining Appropriate Sovereignty. Perhaps more intriguing is the direction implied by the less well publicised US Defense Science Board–UK MoD joint paper on co-operation in defence critical technologies. The core of fundamental government-to-government research cooperation is likely to be with the US 12. Co-operation with the US, combined with the steady drift of UK defence company investment in the US, could lead to long-term dependence. The MoD also recognises that working with the US is often based on what the UK can bring to a collaborative programme and does not necessarily generate access to new technology that can be readily transferred to the UK. A closer alignment of industrial and technological strategy with France and Germany could mitigate some of the risks of dependence on the US. European collaboration in the past has usually delivered a more egalitarian access to jointly developed technology. The Government has said that it would like to discuss the UK’s strategy with European allies, notably the French, but progress will have to accelerate to make much difference. The MoD prefers to manage this on a bilateral basis or in a small group of nations. It does not have much confidence in the multilateral or pan-European level. 7.0 THE FUTURE OF THE AEROSPACE PROFESSIONAL A new skill set and career pattern? 37. The DTS poses a major challenge to the conventional view of an aerospace professional. Working on defence projects will remain a stimulating and rewarding intellectual career — indeed, the more so given the complexity of some of the high level systems envisaged for the future. This may also be enhanced by the MoD’s determination both to increase the rate of technology 12 US Defense Science Board Report & UK Defence Science Advisory Council, Task Force on Defense Critical Technologies, Washington, March 2006. The areas of interest were: Advanced Communication Environments, Persistent Surveillance; Power Sources/Management for Small Distributed Networked Sensors; High Performance Computing; and Defence Critical Electronic Components. With the exception of electronic components, the MoD was reluctant to publish its list of specifically critical technologies. Many of these may well relate to nuclear weapons and cryptographic applications, and advanced surveillance and pattern recognition concepts which are relevant to internal and external securityrelated interests. The report concluded that both countries should actively seek to work together in these fields. Its work was covered by a US ITAR exemption. 10 Aerospace and the UK Defence Industry and Technology Strategy insertion and better use of civil technology; raising the prospect of a more dynamic research environment. Equally, the MoD will depend more upon the university sector for research into aerodynamics and structures. This may improve the relationship between MoD and academia and encourage still better links with industry — existing collaborative work on UAS technology concepts point the way perhaps. The key caveat here is the continued shrinkage in the UK’s science and engineering personnel base, undermined by a further fall in students taking up the ‘hard’ disciplines. Many of the current generation are foreign, some of whom may stay in the UK, but all too many will return home to provide the base for future competition. 38. The major opportunities for the aerospace professional are likely to be in electronics, IT and systems design and integration. In some views of the future, some aspects of the design and integration process may become more akin to the architectural profession, with some separation between design and construction. There are clear and fundamental requirements for systems engineers as well as human factors specialists. Through life management will also put a premium on well-trained and experienced project managers. 39. Overall, however, maintaining design teams and creating a more flexible and adaptable industry capable of doing more than just churning out successive generations of familiar platform concepts will test companies and government alike. This is a subtler challenge than simply maintaining employment in the defence industries. The demand will be for flexible, adaptable professionals, perhaps with a wider range of educational experience than the traditional aerospace engineer. Multidisciplinary approaches and awareness will be a key requirement. Manufacturing and employment 40. On the manufacturing side, there will still be high value employment in defence aerospace sector but again not necessarily drawn from the traditional metal-based engineering skills set. The numbers of future platforms in any event will diminish still further and the growth area for employment will be in servicing and upgrading. It is unlikely that the most sophisticated UAS types will be bought in large numbers and other UAS platforms are very simple pieces of equipment (even if their systems are not), and in many cases readily acquired off-theshelf from a rapidly growing global UAS industry. By the same token, the UK supply chain will have to accept changes in work patterns and some of its established elements inevitably will face obsolescence or be required to seek business outside the defence aerospace sector. 41. It is unlikely in any case that the MoD, despite attempts to keep the unions onside, will be swayed by the ‘jobs in Britain’ argument. However, the UK Government may have to do something to protect high value human assets, especially in aerospace, one of its few remaining high-value manufacturing sectors which acts as a focus and stimulus for much of the country’s engineering talent. Maintaining the human base will not come cheap if one is serious about maintaining real capability but it should be an essential element in a long-term strategy. Technology demonstration and ‘new blood’ 42. This might have implied a commitment to an expanded programme of ‘technology demonstration’ that not only allows fundamental ideas and concepts to be explored and ‘de-risked’ but also helps to keep design teams together and to attract ‘new blood’ in the ever-increasing intervals between concrete projects. However, as the MoD seeks greater involvement by industry in applied research and technology demonstration, companies may
The growth area for employment will be in servicing and upgrading. prefer to focus on projects and programme areas that have the best chance of meeting immediate requirements. This will deter commitment to higher risk, longer-term areas. The so-called Grand Challenge projects inspired by the US DARPA experience may mitigate this to some extent. However, these may not be launched in great numbers and financial allocations will be modest. The aerospace sector cannot expect to be singled out for inclusion in any specific Grand Challenge. Some operational issues 43. Finally, the future for the operational side of the profession contains a mixture of continuing trends toward smaller, smarter forces. While flying fast jets and support aircraft will remain core applications of piloting skills in a conventionally structure air force, systems managers will be even more vital to the air force and associated services. Moreover, the deployment of UAS, especially the more sophisticated, autonomous aircraft, may demand a different type of remote piloting skills. This has been termed air awareness rather airmanship. 8.0 FINAL OBSERVATIONS DIS/DTS a good start, but challenges remain for the MoD and Industry 44. In terms of overall quality and depth of analysis the DIS and the DTS match comparable studies in the US and are unrivalled in Europe. There is also a sense of urgency attached to the implementation plans and specific task-forces attached to both documents. Wisely, the MoD Chief Scientist has described the MoD’s approach as ‘only a first pass’ at defining a road map for industry and academia to inform their planning. The intention is to start a dialogue with the UK defence community. The DTS must also be adaptable to scientific and technological change. 45. Theses caveats notwithstanding, the DIS and DTS, if fully implemented, are together intended to provide a stable framework for company planning as well as reinforcing the value of partnership between customer and suppliers. There is much still to be done, however, and there are several areas still to be resolved in the short term if a number of key capabilities are to be retained in the UK. Moreover there remain unanswered questions about the level of investment the aerospace sector can expect over the next few years — and in the case of the DTS, a classified programme (including nuclear) that might drain resources from conventional equipment R&D. Long-term stability 46. To achieve real long-term stability, the strategy will to negotiate changes in government priorities and of administration. There are, of course, underlying trends in defence technology and its environment which will impose some constraints on future ministers and officials. The pressure of events will also present new challenges. In its favour, the DTS emphasises the importance of flexibility and resilience in identifying research priorities but industry cannot be entirely confident that its long-term investment in research will be sustainable in a period of political flux. Companies will have no comeback if they are faced with nugatory investment and are unlikely to receive assistance in the event of a major crisis. There is certainly a continued requirement to improve the profit margins on defence work to encourage a greater willingness to bear such risks. 47. One of the most demanding aspects of the MoD’s overall approach to the UK DTIB will be maintaining capability in the absence of specific programmes. Whether through a comprehensive programme of technology demonstration or some other ‘virtual’ approach to the problem this will require adequate levels of funding sustained over long periods. It will also be essential to include supplier companies to a considerable depth or face the danger of hollowing out the UK defence industrial base. Working in the new defence research institutional framework 48. The UK defence industry also faces a future operating within a new research institutional context. The privatisation of QinetiQ is a done deal and the UK is still alone of the major defence industrial powers in having a commercially motivated national research centre. The relationship with DSTL will also pose new challenges for industry. The MoD promises a new era of competitive research tendering which may offer industry new opportunities but the current strengths of the UK DTIB were in part based on a co-operative regime with the government research agencies and laboratories. In the future, the new relationships and competitive dynamics may be beneficial — there may certainly be a better and a more direct flow between innovation and commercial exploitation (in both defence and civil markets). But this remains unknown territory. Rapid and fundamental changes required of customer and supplier alike 49. The DIS pointed to a new business model demanding radical changes on the part of the supplier. This should also entail equally radical changes on the part of the customer. In the first instance this should entail adopting clearer and more consistent approaches to full life support contracting as well implementing the recommendations of the critical evaluation of procurement practices that the MoD and the National Audit Office have been jointly conducting. These must be encouraged and their prescriptions implemented as a matter of urgency. FEBRUARY 2007 11
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DTS Paper.qxp - Royal Aeronautical Society

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