Reconstructions

Summary
• Serious weight is given to how we perceive the accuracy
of a reconstruction by verifying to a particular period
• The arbitrary choice of calibration/validation period can
significant affect this perception and can also lead to the
introduction of sampling errors in the reconstruction
• Ensemble approach means we can have a “best estimate”
while still retaining information on sampling errors
• Can obtain a distribution of possible reconstructions back
through time – allows from a probabilistic estimate of the
likelihood of that reconstruction