Myles Allan, Constraints for Probabilistic Forecasts Myles Allan ...

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A Barrable, GCM Sensitivity for Climate Change Studies at a Regional Scale in the Swartland, Western Cape, South Africa. A Barrable Climate Systems Analysis Group, Environmental and Geographical Science Department, University of Cape Town, South Africa and Prof Bruce Hewitson, Climate change is a critical issue for the farmers in southern Africa, especially in the context of inter- and intra-annual climate variability. In particular an examination of future climate change needs to be assessed in view of the sector of vulnerability. For the agricultural sector, this critically includes a regional study of climate change to enable comparative results towards impacts on soil erosion and land degradation. Within this framework, evaluating the effectiveness of the climate models to be utilised needs to be addressed before the impact of the projected future climate can be properly assessed for the region. This study concerns itself with the southwestern Cape region of the Swartland, where wheat farmers are for the most part reliant on the timing and quantity of rainfall to produce viable yields. An assessment is made of the performance of six global climate models for the southwestern Cape: the CCCMA, CSIRO-Mk2, ECHAM4 / OPCY3, HadCM3, NCARCSM and NCARPCM. By examining the variables of precipitation, temperature and wind speed, and comparing these to NCEP reanalysis data, one may identify the degree to which the model simulations reflect the real climate system processes. The model data used comprises 30 years of simulated climate representing present day conditions based on the A2 SRES scenario of greenhouse gas concentrations. In this way the sensitivity of the model output to the observed climate is gauged, thus establishing which models are applicable to the study region.
Page 1: Myles Allan, Constraints for Probab
Page 5 and 6: Swadhin Behera, Modes Of Variabilit
Page 7 and 8: Rasmus Benestad, Record-Value Stati
Page 9 and 10: Carel N. Bezuidenhout, Assessing Th
Page 11 and 12: Mr. Albert Boehm, Proper Verificati
Page 13 and 14: Paula Brown, Temperature Extremes I
Page 15 and 16: Hong-Xing Cao, Long Memory Of East-
Page 17 and 18: Lynda Chambers, The Changing Climat
Page 19 and 20: KE Chiloane, Detection of volatile
Page 21 and 22: Andrew Colman, Predictions Of Lake
Page 23 and 24: Claire Davies, Towards High-Resolut
Page 25 and 26: T S Dlamini, CHARACTERISATION OF EM
Page 27 and 28: C.B. Du Preez, Classification of th
Page 29 and 30: Jesus Fernandez, Precipitation Clim
Page 31 and 32: Irene Fischer-Bruns, A Modelling St
Page 33 and 34: T Gill, AN ASSESSMENT OF CHANGING M
Page 35 and 36: Tomas Halenka, On The Statistical A
Page 37 and 38: Jaakko Helminen, Malting Barley Cro
Page 39 and 40: Bruce Hewitson, Empirical Downscali
Page 41 and 42: Radan Huth, Detection Of The Modes
Page 43 and 44: Christopher Jack, Preliminary clima
Page 45 and 46: Prof Ian Jolliffe, To Centre Or Not
Page 47 and 48: Viatcheslav Kharin, Estimating Extr
Page 49 and 50: Won-Tae Kwon, Comparison Of Extreme
Page 51 and 52: C Lennard, THE EFFECT OF NESTING TE
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Ta-Hsin Li, An Adaptive Multi-Resol
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Piero Lionello, Statistical Analysi
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Robert Livezey, Intraseasonal To In
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Robert Lund, Trends In United State
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A Manhique, Atmospheric and ocean p
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Ruth Thokozile Massey, Climate Chan
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T N Mdluli, The Societal Dimensions
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Ladislav Metelka, Non-Linear SLP Va
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G V Motsa, Atmospheric sulphur tran
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SK Mulaudzi, An estimate of emissio
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Mark New, Estimating Oceanic Precip
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L. D. Ntsangwane, Investigating the
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Heiko Paeth, A Bayesian Decision Me
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Rudi Pretorius, Uncertainty, Scient
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from 52 weather stations. The daily
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Jaxk Reeves, Detection Of Undocumen
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HA Riphagen, Trends in observations
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Alan Robock, Detection Of The Effec
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Behrooz Sari Sarraf, Evaluation Of
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Jürg Schmidli, Statistical Downsca
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Leonard Smith, PROBABILISTIC SEASON
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Tim Staeger, Statistical Separation
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Dáithí Stone, The End-To-End Attr
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Peter Stott, Detection Of Anthropog
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Mark Tadross, Uncertainty In Produc
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Warren James Tennant, The Importanc
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