Memorandum To: Linda Lamone, Ross Goldstein, and Nikki Trella ...
Memorandum To: Linda Lamone, Ross Goldstein, and Nikki Trella ...
Memorandum To: Linda Lamone, Ross Goldstein, and Nikki Trella ...
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CENTER FOR AMERICAN POLITICS AND CITIZENSHIP<br />
<strong>Memor<strong>and</strong>um</strong><br />
3140 Tydings Hall<br />
College Park, Maryl<strong>and</strong> 20742<br />
Paul S. Herrnson, Director<br />
301.405.4123 Tel.<br />
301.314.2532 Fax.<br />
herrnson@umd.edu<br />
<strong>To</strong>: <strong>Linda</strong> <strong>Lamone</strong>, <strong>Ross</strong> <strong>Goldstein</strong>, <strong>and</strong> <strong>Nikki</strong> <strong>Trella</strong>, Maryl<strong>and</strong> State Board of Elections<br />
From: Paul Herrnson <strong>and</strong> Michael Hanmer, Center for American Politics <strong>and</strong> Citizenship<br />
Date: 6/30/12<br />
Re: Report on survey results among users of EABDS <strong>and</strong> registrants who used other methods of<br />
voting or did not vote<br />
Beginning with the 2010 primary election, the State of Maryl<strong>and</strong> offered voters the option of<br />
receiving their official blank absentee ballot, accompanying documentation, <strong>and</strong> pre-addressed<br />
mailing label via a secure website. This new voting option, known as the Electronic Absentee Ballot<br />
Delivery System (EABDS), was developed by the Maryl<strong>and</strong> State Board of Elections (MSBE) <strong>and</strong><br />
the Center for American Politics <strong>and</strong> Citizenship (CAPC). As part of its evaluation process, CAPC<br />
conducted several surveys shortly after the 2010 election to examine the effectiveness of the new<br />
system. This memo summarizes the results from CAPC’s survey of citizens who used the new<br />
system <strong>and</strong> a separate survey of registrants who used the other methods of voting or did not vote:<br />
voting on Election Day, early voting, mail-delivered absentee ballot, <strong>and</strong> in some cases, registered<br />
nonvoters. Overall, voters reported a high level of satisfaction, <strong>and</strong> confidence.<br />
The research population for the survey of EABDS users consists of all those who requested to<br />
receive an electronically delivered blank absentee ballot for the 2010 general election. The<br />
population consisted of 9,179 individuals. CAPC sent each of these 9,179 individuals an email after<br />
the November 2010 general election inviting them to participate in a survey about their experiences<br />
with EABDS; 169 of these emails bounced back as undeliverable. Those who did not respond were<br />
sent up to 5 additional email reminders. A total of 4,319 individuals took the survey. The research<br />
population for the survey of registrants who did not use EABDS consists of all those who were listed<br />
as registered in the Maryl<strong>and</strong> voter file <strong>and</strong> who had a phone number that could be located using<br />
information contained in the Maryl<strong>and</strong> voter file (name, address, <strong>and</strong> date of birth). CAPC staff drew<br />
a stratified r<strong>and</strong>om sample based on the method of voting individuals used (including nonvoters) in<br />
the 2010 general election <strong>and</strong> whether the individual was contacted by CAPC about the election.<br />
CAPC staff then sent the background information from this sample to Eastern Research Services,<br />
who used a matching procedure to obtain phone numbers. Eastern Research Services then conducted<br />
the interviews by phone. A total of 1,089 Maryl<strong>and</strong> registrants completed the survey.<br />
When asked how confident they were that their ballots were counted, a majority of voters said they<br />
were either somewhat confident or very confident (see Figure 1). Added together, the confidence<br />
level was 96.2% for Election Day <strong>and</strong> early voters, 92.6% for those who received their ballot in the<br />
mail (regular absentee), <strong>and</strong> 85.8% for EABDS users. The majority of respondents who voted on
Election Day, early, or via regular absentee were very confident that their vote was counted. These<br />
percentages were 77.9%, 79.9%, <strong>and</strong> 61.1%, respectively. Among EABDS users, the proportion of<br />
those who were very confident was lower, at 39.3%.<br />
Voters also expressed a high level of confidence when asked how confident they were that their<br />
ballots were counted as intended (see Figure 2). For Election Day, early, <strong>and</strong> regular absentee voters,<br />
the answers to this measure of confidence were quite similar to the more general question. The<br />
confidence level for EABDS users, however, increased to 88.9%, driven by a larger proportion who<br />
said they were very confident (48.9%).<br />
Figure 1. How confident are you that your ballot was counted?<br />
100%<br />
90%<br />
80%<br />
70%<br />
60%<br />
50%<br />
40%<br />
30%<br />
20%<br />
10%<br />
0%<br />
1.7% 2.1% 1.7% 2.0% 1.9%<br />
5.6%<br />
4.6%<br />
18.3%<br />
16.3%<br />
9.6%<br />
77.9%<br />
79.9%<br />
31.5%<br />
61.1%<br />
46.5%<br />
39.3%<br />
Election Day Early Regular Absentee Electronic<br />
Absentee<br />
Method of Voting Used<br />
Figure 2. How confident are you that your ballot was counted as intended?<br />
100%<br />
90%<br />
80%<br />
70%<br />
60%<br />
50%<br />
40%<br />
30%<br />
20%<br />
10%<br />
0%<br />
1.4% 1.7% 1.0% 2.8% 1.8%<br />
6.1%<br />
3.6%<br />
7.2%<br />
20.0% 19.7%<br />
24.5%<br />
76.9% 76.6%<br />
67.5%<br />
40.3%<br />
48.9%<br />
Election Day Early Regular Absentee Electronic<br />
Absentee<br />
Method of Voting Used<br />
Not At All Confident<br />
Not <strong>To</strong>o Confident<br />
Somewhat Confident<br />
Very Confident<br />
Not At All Confident<br />
Not <strong>To</strong>o Confident<br />
Somewhat Confident<br />
Very Confident
When asked to rate the security of EABDS compared to the regular absentee ballot, the results varied<br />
quite a bit by the method of voting actually used. As Figure 3 shows, 93.6% of EABDS users rated<br />
EABDS as secure, somewhat more secure, or much more secure than the other methods of voting.<br />
That number drops to 58.8% among regular absentee voters, <strong>and</strong> to 47.4% <strong>and</strong> 53.7% among early<br />
voters <strong>and</strong> Election Day voters. Notably, the majority of EABDS users (51.1%) thought EABDS<br />
was as secure as the mail-delivered absentee ballot. Though lower overall, the largest proportion of<br />
Election Day voters <strong>and</strong> regular absentee voters rated EABDS as secure as a mail-delivered ballot,<br />
29.2% <strong>and</strong> 35.3%, respectively.<br />
Figure 3. How would you rate the security of EABDS compared to the mail-delivered absentee<br />
ballot?<br />
100%<br />
90%<br />
80%<br />
70%<br />
60%<br />
50%<br />
40%<br />
30%<br />
20%<br />
10%<br />
0%<br />
23.3% 23.5%<br />
23.0%<br />
29.2%<br />
16.3%<br />
29.2%<br />
26.2%<br />
15.4%<br />
18.3%<br />
22.9%<br />
35.3%<br />
15.7%<br />
8.2% 5.8% 7.8%<br />
1.2%<br />
5.1%<br />
51.1%<br />
23.3%<br />
19.2%<br />
Election Day Early Regular Absentee Electronic<br />
Absentee<br />
Method of Voting Used<br />
Much Less Secure<br />
Somewhat Less Secure<br />
As Secure<br />
Somewhat More Secure<br />
Much More Secure<br />
We also asked voters to rate their satisfaction with the voting method they used. The question for<br />
EABDS users was slightly different in that they were asked how satisfied they were with receiving<br />
their ballot electronically. The vast majority of respondents across all four methods of voting said<br />
they were very satisfied. Figure 4 shows that those who voted early were most satisfied (86.1%),<br />
followed by those who voted on Election Day (83.8%), those who received a mail ballot (81.8%),<br />
<strong>and</strong> EABDS users (80.0%). When the percentages of those who were very satisfied <strong>and</strong> somewhat<br />
satisfied are added together, the overall satisfaction level breaks 90% across each voting method.<br />
The highest was, again, early voters at 97.0%, followed by Election Day voters at 95.5%, regular<br />
absentee voters at 93.9%, <strong>and</strong> EABDS users at 93.0%. The extremely high overall satisfaction levels<br />
suggest that almost all voters’ experiences matched their expectations for the voting method they<br />
chose.
Figure 4. How satisfied were you with having voted/receiving absentee ballot this way?<br />
100%<br />
90%<br />
80%<br />
70%<br />
60%<br />
50%<br />
40%<br />
30%<br />
20%<br />
10%<br />
0%<br />
11.7%<br />
10.9%<br />
12.1% 13.0%<br />
83.8% 86.1% 81.8% 80.0%<br />
Election Day Early Regular<br />
Absentee<br />
Method of Voting Used<br />
Electronic<br />
Absentee<br />
Very Dissatisfied<br />
Somewhat Dissatisfied<br />
Neither Satisfied nor Unsatisfied<br />
Somewhat Satisfied<br />
Very Satisfied<br />
When asked how comfortable they would feel accessing an absentee ballot via the State Board’s<br />
website, people who did not vote <strong>and</strong> people who voted via mail-delivered ballot were the most<br />
likely to somewhat or strongly agree that they would be comfortable, at 57.0% <strong>and</strong> 61.7%<br />
respectively (see Figure 5). Early <strong>and</strong> Election Day voters were less likely to agree, with just below<br />
50% agreeing they would be comfortable using this voting method. When EABDS users were<br />
surveyed, 95% agreed that they felt comfortable accessing their ballot via the State Board’s website,<br />
with 81.1% reporting that they strongly agreed that they were comfortable with the system.<br />
Figure 5. I would feel comfortable accessing my absentee ballot via the State Board’s website.<br />
100%<br />
90%<br />
80%<br />
70%<br />
60%<br />
50%<br />
40%<br />
30%<br />
20%<br />
10%<br />
0%<br />
19.9% 21.4%<br />
13.2% 13.5%<br />
17.4% 17.4%<br />
25.3%<br />
24.2%<br />
20.6%<br />
27.0%<br />
11.1%<br />
9.9%<br />
17.3%<br />
22.8%<br />
38.9%<br />
Election Day Early Regular<br />
Absentee<br />
15.4%<br />
13.3%<br />
14.3%<br />
26.6%<br />
30.4%<br />
Nonvoters<br />
Strongly disagree<br />
Somewhat disagree<br />
Neither agree nor disagree<br />
Somewhat Agree<br />
Strongly Agree
When asked to rate their voting experience in this election compared to past elections, the majority of<br />
respondents rated it as either about the same or more positive (see Figure 6). In regards to Election<br />
Day <strong>and</strong> regular absentee voting, the majority of respondents rated their experience as about the same<br />
(74.6% <strong>and</strong> 64.4%, respectively), while respondents who used the newer voting methods rated their<br />
experience as more positive. The percentage of early voters who rated their experience as about the<br />
same was 44.9%, with about 50% rating it as somewhat or much more positive. The percentage of<br />
EABDS users who rated their experience as about the same was 39.0%, with 55.4% rating it as<br />
somewhat or much more positive. Only 20.8% of Election Day voters <strong>and</strong> 29.5% of regular absentee<br />
voters rated their voting experience as somewhat or much more positive, though voters using these<br />
methods were less likely to report that their experience was more negative than previous elections.<br />
We also asked respondents about the possibility of using EABDS in the future. Among voters who<br />
used EABDS in 2010, 65.5% said they were very likely to use it again, with 90.7% of users being at<br />
least somewhat likely to use it again, suggesting they had a positive experience with the system (see<br />
Figure 7). Those who voted early or on Election Day were not as likely to say they would use<br />
EABDS in the future, while 59.6% of regular absentee voters were at least somewhat likely to use<br />
EABDS in the future. Only 45.8% of registered nonvoters said they were likely to use EABDS in the<br />
future.<br />
Figure 6. How would you rate your voting experience in this election compared to prior voting<br />
experiences?<br />
100%<br />
90%<br />
80%<br />
70%<br />
60%<br />
50%<br />
40%<br />
30%<br />
20%<br />
10%<br />
0%<br />
3.9%<br />
0.7% 3.1% 1.8% 0.9%<br />
2.4% 4.3% 4.7%<br />
74.6%<br />
10.2%<br />
10.6%<br />
44.9%<br />
17.0%<br />
32.7%<br />
64.4%<br />
11.7%<br />
17.8%<br />
39.0%<br />
28.0%<br />
27.4%<br />
Election Day Early Regular Absentee Electronic<br />
Absentee<br />
Method of Voting Used<br />
Much more negative<br />
Somewhat more negative<br />
About the same<br />
Somewhat more positive<br />
Much more positive
Figure 7. How likely are you to use an absentee ballot posted to the State Board’s website to<br />
vote in future elections?<br />
100%<br />
90%<br />
80%<br />
70%<br />
60%<br />
50%<br />
40%<br />
30%<br />
20%<br />
10%<br />
0%<br />
44.0%<br />
23.7%<br />
22.7%<br />
51.3%<br />
21.5%<br />
18.8%<br />
9.6% 8.4%<br />
24.0%<br />
16.4%<br />
26.3%<br />
33.3%<br />
Election Day Early Regular<br />
Absentee<br />
Method of Voting Used<br />
3.3%<br />
6.0%<br />
25.2%<br />
65.5%<br />
Electronic<br />
Absentee<br />
37.8%<br />
16.4%<br />
28.0%<br />
17.8%<br />
Nonvoters<br />
Very unlikely<br />
Somewhat unlikely<br />
Somewhat likely<br />
Very likely<br />
Finally, we asked Election Day, early, <strong>and</strong> regular absentee voters which of the four methods of<br />
voting would be most convenient (polling place, early, absentee with mail request, <strong>and</strong> absentee with<br />
EABDS). Not surprisingly, the ratings show a strong relationship between the methods of voting<br />
voters chose in 2010 <strong>and</strong> their views about convenience (see Figure 8A). For example, 72.0% of<br />
Election Day voters reported that voting on Election Day was the most convenient method of voting.<br />
Similarly, 66.7% of early voters rated early voting as most convenient <strong>and</strong> 40.7% of regular absentee<br />
voters rated the method they used as the most convenient. Among nonvoters, Election Day voting<br />
was most likely to be selected as the most convenient method, with 45.2% of nonvoters responding<br />
that Election Day voting would be the most convenient. For all but early voters, the second highest<br />
percentage of respondents selected EABDS as the most convenient method.<br />
When EABDS users were asked if voting via the absentee ballot posted to the State Board’s website<br />
was more convenient than other methods of voting, 62.5% of EABDS voters strongly agreed that<br />
their method was the most convenient; overall, 82.6% agreed, suggesting a positive experience (see<br />
Figure 8B).
Figure 8: Comparing Convenience<br />
100%<br />
90%<br />
80%<br />
70%<br />
60%<br />
50%<br />
40%<br />
30%<br />
20%<br />
10%<br />
0%<br />
Figure 8A. Phone Survey: Of the following four methods of voting, which would<br />
be the most convenient?<br />
15.0%<br />
3.8%<br />
9.2%<br />
72.0%<br />
11.1%<br />
6.7%<br />
66.7%<br />
15.5%<br />
27.3%<br />
40.7%<br />
10.5%<br />
21.5%<br />
Election Day Early Regular<br />
Absentee<br />
Method of Voting Used<br />
22.3%<br />
18.0%<br />
14.4%<br />
45.2%<br />
Nonvoters<br />
Absentee with EABDS<br />
Absentee with mail request<br />
Early<br />
Polling Place<br />
Figure 8B. EABDS users: Voting using the absentee ballot posted to the SBE’s<br />
website was more convenient than other methods of voting.<br />
Somewhat Disagree,<br />
3.5%<br />
Neither Agree nor<br />
Disagree, 12.2%<br />
Somewhat Agree,<br />
20.1%<br />
Strongly Disagree,<br />
1.7%<br />
Strongly Agree,<br />
62.5%
Overall, voters were confident that their ballot was counted <strong>and</strong> counted as intended, in addition to<br />
being satisfied with the voting process across all methods of voting. Respondents also reported that<br />
they are highly likely to use EABDS in the future <strong>and</strong> rate it as convenient, especially if they had<br />
voted via EABDS or regular absentee. Voters who did not use EABDS were not especially likely to<br />
rate it as secure as an absentee ballot delivered via regular mail. This suggests that more outreach is<br />
necessary to inform the public about this new method of voting.