FEWS Uganda - Foodnet

FEWS Uganda
Monthly Report
February 2000
SUMMARY - HIGHLIGHTS
In December 1999, a joint WFP/NGO assessment to
Kotido and Moroto Districts determined a rising need for
food aid with preliminary estimates at 215,000 people in
need of assistance. Planned follow on assessments to
better identify geographic areas, populations and
assistance mechanisms, such as free food or food for
work, were cancelled because the Government of
Uganda strongly felt that the situation required
immediate food aid, not another assessment. The
government is calling for general food distribution to the
entire population in both districts. WFP is writing an
emergency appeal for assistance, based on the
government's request.
In Bundibugyo District, the government increased army
deployment and road convoy protection in an attempt to
restore access to areas hit hard by rebel insurgents.
This has allowed humanitarian organizations to
gradually gain better access to the more than 100,000
people displaced in the district. The World Harvest
A report on food security and
vulnerability in Uganda.
FEWS Uganda # 2000/02
10 February 2000
Index:
• Summary, pp1
• Rainfall and Vegetation
Conditions, pp. 2
• Crop Production and Crop
Calendar, pp. 3
• Market Trade, Food
Availability and Access,
pp. 4
• Humanitarian Update, Civil
Insecurity and Current
Interventions, pp. 5
Sources of Information:
• WFP reports
• District Agriculture and
Veterinary Officials
• Various NGO reports
• IITA-weekly district market
data
Mission, an NGO working in the district, reported in early February that many of the
displaced are only eating one meal per day, as they are afraid to go to their gardens
because of rebel attacks. In addition to food shortages, the group reports that
health centers have very limited supplies of essential medicines and cases of
measles are on the increase. WFP food convoys have begun arriving, and this
should help to relieve immediate household food insecurity. Insecurity in northern
Uganda remains tenuous; however, no new population displacements have been
reported.
Except for districts hit by poor harvests last season (Kotido and Moroto) and areas
affected by insecurity (Bundibugyo), market supply of staple foods is adequate in all
markets. Market prices for beans and maize, for example, are at or below their
three-year average, as supply from last season's good harvests continues to come
into the market place.
First season rains for 2000 are expected to begin in the southern half of the country
in late February. Farmers in northern districts are beginning to dry sow millet and
sorghum in preparation for rains expected in March and early April.
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I. Rainfall and Vegetation
Conditions
Rainfall: Normal dry conditions
dominated the climate regime during
January. Scattered-light showers
occurred in some western, southwestern
and central districts.
Pasture and Livestock Conditions:
Light rainfall since December benefited
pastures and browse in the central and
southwestern Uganda “cattle corridor” --
Sembabule, Mbarara, Ntungamo and
Kabale Districts. Water for human and
livestock use is also available.
Extensively dry conditions have reduced
vegetation “green” in other parts of the
country (see Figure 1). Despite reported
incidence of Foot and Mouth Disease in
some counties of Mbarara District,
quarantine control measures have been
effective and availability of drugs has
helped ensure no significant deterioration
in animal health conditions in the district.
The normal dry season in Karamoja --
Kotido and Moroto Districts -- is nearly
FEWS Uganda # 2000/02
10 February, 2000
half way through. Pasture and water
conditions are unusually poor and many
pastoralists maintain their livestock herds
in neighboring districts, notably Kitgum,
Lira, Katakwi, Soroti, Kumi and
Kapchorwa, where they have access to
water, fodder and browse. The Lutheran
World Federation (LWF) and other NGOs
active in Kotido and Moroto Districts
report that incidences of cattle rustling
remain high among the different ethnic
Karimojong groups. Together with
uncertain security on the roads, this has
significantly reduced periodic movements
of people at home to and from the dry
season grazing areas where the herds
are located to collect milk and other
animal proteins to sustain persons,
especially the young and elderly, who
stayed in Kotido and Moroto. This linkage
Figure 1: Vegetation Conditions compared to Average
1 - 10 January 2000 11 - 20 January 2000 21 - 31 January 2000
Difference from Average
Note
(1) Based on NDVI Satellite Imagery of
Vegetation
(2) Average based on imagery from 1982 to
1997
Source: FEWS/U, February 2000
is important as one of the major coping
methods by which these agro-pastoral
households sustain themselves through
the dry season and its breakage
increases the susceptibility to food
insecurity.
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II. Crop Production and Crop
Calendar
Dry season conditions benefit farmers’
post harvest -- crop drying, storage --
activities following the end of the 1999second
season in the eastern, central
and northern districts. Farmers in
western and southwestern Uganda
continue harvesting bean and cereal
crops and average to above average
production is reported. The harvest has
enabled households to replenish their
food stocks, especially in districts of
western, southwestern and parts of
central Uganda, where a lower than
normal first season harvest was realized.
Sweet Potato and Cassava
The production and supply of sweet
potatoes and cassava, key food security
crops, continues to be normal in the
northern districts (Gulu, Kitgum) and the
eastern and central districts (Katakwi,
Soroti, Kumi, Pallisa, Iganga, Kamuli,
Mukono down to Masaka and Rakai).
Normally, dry conditions favor keeping
of the tuber and root crops underground
for a long time with limited loss to
moisture rot and pest attack. Fresh
sweet potatoes and cassava, in addition
to chips and flour, are still available in
major markets across the country, such
as Jinja and Kampala.
Cooking Banana (Matooke)
production in the main growing areas of
western and southwestern Uganda is
recovering but remains lower than
normal following extended dry
conditions in the first eight months of
1999. Second season rainfall helped
sustain the banana crop, providing
necessary moisture for new shoots to
form that will replace the older crop,
which was affected by extended dry
condition, thereby enable production to
return to normal. Banana production is
FEWS Uganda # 2000/02
10 February, 2000
expected to regain normal levels by
mid-2000, if adequate well-distributed
rainfall is sustained in the coming
months.
III. Market Trade, Food Availability
and Access
Cereal and pulse supply in major markets
of Uganda remains good. In addition to
improving household food stocks,
increasing dry maize grain supply from
the just concluded second season
harvest is helping to further replenish
market supply. Staple food supply in
Moroto and Kotido Districts continues to
be restricted owing to low crop availability
within the districts and limited inflows from
neighboring districts, mostly due to
uncertain security on the roads.
Unpredictable behavior observed for
wholesale bean prices for the last
quarter of 1999 persisted into January
when a mix of low and high prices were
recorded in some markets over the
three week period. This trend may be
attributed to indeterminate supply and
could be the result of speculative trade
where traders hoard beans as prices
begin to drop but increase supply as
prices rise to sell for high profit. Except
for Kasese where a 100 kilogram bag of
beans has averaged UShs 17,500/=
since early December 1999 when supply
from the harvest increased, beans sold
for not less than UShs 22,000/= in other
district markets with Mbale reporting the
highest price of not less than UShs
30,000/=. Increasing demand, as school
term begins, is expected to lead to a rise
in price as supply diminishes in eastern
Uganda.
The down trend observed for dry maize
grain and flour prices since the first week
of December 1999 continued through
January 2000. By the third week of
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January 2000, a 100
kilogram bag of maize
grain averaged UShs
15,000/= in most
major markets, down
from about UShs
25,000/= before the
harvest fully began in
late November 1999.
In Kasese District, a
100-kilogram bag of
maize currently sells
for as low as UShs
10,000/=. Declining
maize grain and flour
prices augur well for
improved access for
households reliant on
market purchases.
Comparison of a three
year average -- 1996
to 1999 for September
to January -- to
current prices shows
bean and maize
prices for September
1999 to January 2000
were below average
to average in many
markets, implying
favorable access for
population dependent
on markets.
IV. Humanitarian Update, Civil
Insecurity and Current
Interventions: Assessment
Stalled, Humanitarian Activities
Resume in Bundibugyo
Subsequent to discussions between the
Office of the Prime Minister and the World
Food Programme ( WFP), a planned
detailed assessment of Kotido and
Moroto Districts, which was to take place
in February to update conditions on the
ground, has been cancelled. The
assessment was one of the
UShs per Kg
UShs per Kg
FEWS Uganda # 2000/02
10 February, 2000
Figure 2: Weekly Bean and Dry Maize Grain Prices for Select
Markets, September 1999 to Mid-January 2000
Beans
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
40/1999
40/1999
41/1999
41/1999
42/1999
42/1999
43/1999
43/1999
44/1999
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Telephone 256-41-231140 ♦ FAX: 256-41-231139 ♦ Email: amutengu@fews.org
45/1999
46/1999
47/1999
48/1999
Week
3 yr average Mbale Lira Kasese Jinja
44/1999
45/1999
46/1999
Maize
47/1999
48/1999
Week
3 yr average Mbale Lira Kasese Jinja
49/1999
49/1999
Source: The Market Information System, IITA and FEWS/U, February 2000
50/1999
50/1999
recommendations made by a joint United
Nations (UN) and Non Government
Organizations (NGOs) food assessment
that took place in December 1999, which
evaluated impact of the 1999 extended
dry conditions in Uganda’s agro-pastoral
northeastern districts to determine the
need for short-term emergency
interventions. The February assessment
was geared to better identify and improve
targeting of assistance to the most
vulnerable population.
In the meantime, WFP is drafting an
emergency operation to provide food aid
51/1999
51/1999
52/1999
52/1999
53/1999
53/1999
1/2000
1/2000
2/2000
2/2000
3/2000
3/2000
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to an estimated 400,000 affected people
in Kotido and Moroto Districts. The food,
which is expected to be available by
March, will be distributed with the help of
the Adventist Relief Agency (ADRA) as
the implementing partner through gradual
geographical targeting of the areas most
affected, as identified in the December
assessment. Aside from food aid, NGOs
are also pushing for market intervention in
Moroto and Kotido Districts, through
market supply of crop commodities at
subsidized prices, to stem and reduce
rising crop prices that are increasingly
reducing households’ access to markets
in the regions. Donors are considering
the different options. For now, the total
quantity of food that is planned for the
combined responses is not yet
determined.
Western Uganda: Bundibugyo District
In January, the Government of Uganda
increased army deployment and road
convoy protection in Bundibugyo District -
- on Uganda’s western border with the
Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) --
in a bid to restore civil security. This
followed revived and heightened attacks
by ADF rebels on communities and road
convoys, in December 1999, that caused
population re-displacements and forced
humanitarian agencies to considerably
scale down their presence in the district
where civil strife, population displacement
and food insecurity have been
experienced since late 1997.
Consequently, several agencies have
gradually begun returning to Bundibugyo
District to provide food and non-food
assistance to an estimated more than
100,000 internally displaced persons
(IDP). Food aid to the IDPs is available
from the World Food Program (WFP).
Displacement has limited the populations’
movement and access to land to carry out
normal activities.
FEWS Uganda # 2000/02
10 February, 2000
Northern Uganda: Gulu and Kitgum
Districts
Humanitarian agencies working in Gulu
and Kitgum Districts report continued
but isolated attacks on villages and
road users by rebels of the Lords
Resistance Army (LRA). No significant
population displacements have been
reported, however, although NGOs
report a marked increase in the number
of people moving into urban centers in
the late afternoon from rural environs,
abandoning their homes, to avoid the
risk of night-time rebel attacks.
Nevertheless, there are no reported
impediments to households accessing
fields to harvest and open land for next
season’s cultivation. The next planting
season begins in late February with dry
sowing of millet and sorghum.
Generally, household food security
remains good.
A USAID Project, Managed by ARD Inc. ♦ P.O. Box 7856, Kampala, Uganda
Telephone 256-41-231140 ♦ FAX: 256-41-231139 ♦ Email: amutengu@fews.org
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