Electricity Benchmarking Analysis Report (web only) - Forfás

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34 Capacity margin as proportion of peak demand (%) 40% 20% 0% 41% 38% 22% 25% Level of Spare <strong>Electricity</strong> Generation Capacity Over and Above Peak Demand 7% 19% 13% 17% 16% 14% 9% 10% Ireland Singapore NZ Spain Italy UK Germany Portugal Ireland Netherlands France Notes:1. The figure for NZ is unadjusted for availability. 2. Denmark and Finland are excluded because availability information for these two countries is based on the entire Nordic region rather than country specific information. The US is also excluded. 6% 14% 3% 2004 2005 7% 3% Source: Pöyry ► This indicator is based on the ratio of spare capacity (i.e. the difference between available capacity and peak demand) to peak demand. Peak demand is at its highest in Ireland in winter but for other countries it will be in summer due to demand for electricity for air conditioning. To calculate the available capacity, installed capacity data for each country is adjusted using the ratio of available to installed capacity from the European Transmission System Operator. ► Interconnection is not taken into account as peak demand often occurs at similar times in neighbouring countries. For generation adequacy assessments, the CER has agreed a reliance of 200MW on Northern Ireland can be assumed.
35 Generation Adequacy ► The previous slide shows that Ireland has a low level of spare electricity capacity over and above peak demand compared to the other benchmark countries. This is primarily due to the fact that installed capacity in Ireland is not greatly in excess of peak demand. ► The performance of generation plant in Ireland is also low compared to other countries. While plant availability had improved to the mid 80s during 2005, it has deteriorated during 2006 and in recent months has fallen below 80%. Plant availability in the UK averages 87%. ► According to the recently published Generation Adequacy <strong>Report</strong> by Eirgrid, under all demand growth scenarios (see Slide 21) and assuming median plant availability, there will be sufficient generation capacity to meet demand until 2010. However, if plant closure is advanced, or the availability performance of existing plant deteriorates, then supply shortages could arise in winter 2007 and winter 2008. ► To ensure generation adequacy in the short to medium term, it is critical that the performance of existing plant is improved and stabilised. Eirgrid also recommends that plant designated for closure is in an available state until replacement generation capacity has been commissioned.
Page 1 and 2: Electricity Benchmarking Analysis T
Page 3 and 4: 3 INTRODUCTION
Page 5 and 6: 5 Indicators In consultation with F
Page 7 and 8: 7 Increasing Demand Key Findings (1
Page 9 and 10: 9 Ireland’s Overall Performance K
Page 11 and 12: 11 Index of GDP, Total Primary Ener
Page 13 and 14: 13 Electricity Demand by Sector Ser
Page 15 and 16: 15 29.9% 13.1% 8.2% 13.3% 17.8% 4.7
Page 17 and 18: 17 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Biopharm
Page 19 and 20: 19 Generation Transmission Ownershi
Page 21 and 22: 21 Electricity Demand Forecasts Sou
Page 23 and 24: 23 Energy Policy Developments ► E
Page 25 and 26: 25 Euro/100 kWh 10 8 6 4 Industrial
Page 27 and 28: 27 Euro/100 kWh 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
Page 29 and 30: 29 Euro/MWh 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Page 31 and 32: 31 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30%
Page 33: 33 Marginal cost of generation Euro
Page 37 and 38: 37 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% Portugal Mar
Page 39 and 40: 39 Composite Indicator - Conclusion
Page 41 and 42: 41 CER, Report on Ireland’s Secu

Electricity Benchmarking Analysis Report (web only) - Forfás

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