Tourism & CC Challenges & Opportunities - Global Commons Institute

Situational Analysis
The aviation sector is recognized as one of the most rapidly growing GHG emission sources and could be amongst
the fastest growing in absolute terms by 2050. Aviation emissions have doubled since 1990 and are estimated by
the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO 2007) to be increasing at 3.5 percent annually. Aviation GHG
emissions in the EU have increased 87% from 1990 to 2004, and it is expected that they will double in the period
2005-2020 (Commission of the European Communities 2006). In Canada, aviation GHG emissions grew 35%
between 1990 and 2005. Based on industry growth forecasts, the contribution of air travel to global emissions is
expected to increase substantially in the next 25 years, despite projected increases in fuel efficiency. Depending on
growth rates of air travel (3 to 5% annually), emissions from international air travel would represent between 22
and 67% of the CO2 emissions from the UK in 2050, in a situation where all other sectors reduce greenhouse gas
emissions (Lee et al. 2005).
Figure 1 illustrates how this potential growth in aviation emissions, even with fuel efficiency gains anticipated by
the aviation sector, contrasts with long-range targets of economy-wide GHG emission reductions in the EU (80%
reduction by 2050 to restrict global surface warming to 2°C compared to pre-industrial temperatures - European
Commission 1996). If aircraft emissions continue to grow at rates currently observed, and then at more moderate
rates, aviation alone may exceed the EU’s 2050 carbon emissions target. If radiative forcing by other greenhouse
gases is included this may occur even before 2050 (cf. Bows et al. 2006a, b). The upper line in Figure 1 shows
the contracting carbon emissions total for the EU economy as a whole, for a 550 parts per million volume (ppmv)
scenario; the middle line shows the contracting carbon emissions total for the EU as a whole, for a 450 ppmv
scenario; the rising dashed line shows EU aircraft CO2 emissions (not including radiative forcing of other greenhouse
gasses), under a business as usual scenario that accounts for anticipated efficiencies and the moderation of air traffic
growth rates from 2015 onwards.
Figure 1: Reduction Needs in Emissions for EU25 Compared with Aviation
Source: Bows et al. 2006b
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