offshore wind onshore jobs - a new industry for ... - Greenpeace UK

10
Scenarios of offshore wind growth
Three scenarios of future offshore wind growth have
been analysed. The scenarios assume that offshore
wind output reaches 10%, 20% and 30% of total UK
electricity supply by the year 2020.
Each scenario assumes that the necessary financial
incentives and permitting arrangements are in
place to drive the growth in offshore wind power
such that it reaches the projected levels by the
year 2020. Moreover, it is assumed that offshore
wind growth will continue beyond 2020, driven
by, for example, larger renewables targets and a
more extensive European emissions trading regime
with tight caps that continue to reduce over time.
It is further assumed that, during the modelled
period, no significant limits to development are
encountered, for example in the form of electricity
market penalties for intermittency or limits to
transmission infrastructure upgrading.
The capacity installed annually (Figure 2) and
cumulative capacity (Figure 3) assume an increasing
rate of growth that reflects the ability of an
expanding industry base to service the demand for
offshore installations, growing from the present low
base. The maximum rate of annual installation under
the 30% by 2020 scenario is around 5GW/year,
broadly consistent with the Sea Wind East report.
Figure 2
Annual Offshore offshore wind capacity wind capacity installed
growth annually under three three scenarios.
Capacity (GW)
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Figure 3
Scenario: 30% by 2020
Scenario: 20% by 2020
Scenario: 10% by 2020
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Years
Cumulative offshore wind
capacity under three scenarios
Capacity (GW)
40
30
20
10
Scenario: 30% by 2020
Scenario: 20% by 2020
Scenario: 10% by 2020
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Years