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10 Scenarios of offshore wind growth Three scenarios of future offshore wind growth have been analysed. The scenarios assume that offshore wind output reaches 10%, 20% and 30% of total UK electricity supply by the year 2020. Each scenario assumes that the necessary financial incentives and permitting arrangements are in place to drive the growth in offshore wind power such that it reaches the projected levels by the year 2020. Moreover, it is assumed that offshore wind growth will continue beyond 2020, driven by, for example, larger renewables targets and a more extensive European emissions trading regime with tight caps that continue to reduce over time. It is further assumed that, during the modelled period, no significant limits to development are encountered, for example in the form of electricity market penalties for intermittency or limits to transmission infrastructure upgrading. The capacity installed annually (Figure 2) and cumulative capacity (Figure 3) assume an increasing rate of growth that reflects the ability of an expanding industry base to service the demand for offshore installations, growing from the present low base. The maximum rate of annual installation under the 30% by 2020 scenario is around 5GW/year, broadly consistent with the Sea Wind East report. Figure 2 Annual Offshore offshore wind capacity wind capacity installed growth annually under three three scenarios. Capacity (GW) 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Figure 3 Scenario: 30% by 2020 Scenario: 20% by 2020 Scenario: 10% by 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Years Cumulative offshore wind capacity under three scenarios Capacity (GW) 40 30 20 10 Scenario: 30% by 2020 Scenario: 20% by 2020 Scenario: 10% by 2020 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Years
NORTH EAST JOBS FROM OFFSHORE WIND 11
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offshore wind onshore jobs - a new industry for ... - Greenpeace UK

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