December - IATA

Air Transport Market Analysis
December 2010
PASSENGER LOAD FACTORS REMAIN IN STABLE RANGE
Whilst passenger load factors in December at the industry level remained within the 77-79% range, there
continues to be a marked variation across the regions; for the North American carriers passenger overall load
factors of almost 81% for December, and just over 82%, for the full year are close to those seen in the so-called
LCC segment of the market; however the capacity discipline associated with these load factors has been clearly
evident in the financial performances of most airlines in the region. The risk is now is that to accommodate
growth, too much capacity is introduced/re-introduced too quickly against a still uncertain background.
Whilst the load factor tells us how much capacity has been used, the more useful figure is the gap between the
achieved load factor and the breakeven load factor; In our latest forecasts which also include the effects of
freight, we expect that there will have been a slight decline in the breakeven load factor in 2010 compared to
2009, with the main driver of profitability being volumes (as well as a partial recovery in premium traffic);
however for 2011 we currently expect the break even load factor to increase and the achieved load factor to
decline - each 0.1% change in the gap between the achieved load factor and breakeven has the potential to
swing the result by some $800m underlining how fine the balance is ultimately between supply, demand and
yields.
80%
Passenger Load Factor on International Market
Seasonally Adjusted
Source: IATA
85
81
Dec-09
Dec-10
Passenger Load Factor By Region
Source: IATA
82.1
80.8
% of ASKs
78%
76%
74%
% of ASKs
77
73
69
71.2
70.4
78.5
76.6
77.0 76.9
77.3
76.8
76.0 76.2
77.8
77.2
72%
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
65
Africa Asia Pacific Europe Latin
America
Middle East
North
America
Total
FREIGHT LOAD FACTORS SETTLING?
After a period of rapid recovery and then a small decline, freight load factors have settled down at a slightly
higher level than before the downturn; yield remains a key driver in minds of airline cargo departments.
58%
Freight Load Factor on International Market
Seasonally Adjusted
Source: IATA
68
65.2 65.9
Freight Load Factor By Region
Source: IATA
Dec-09
56%
60
Dec-10
% of AFTKs
54%
52%
50%
48%
46%
% of AFTKs
52
44
36
52.9 52.2
43.5
49.5
45.6 45.8
44.2
43.2
53.8 53.8
44%
28
27.4
24.3
42%
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
20
Africa Asia Pacific Europe Latin
America
Middle East
North
America
Total
IATA Economics E-Mail: economics@iata.org 2 February 2011
FURTHER ANALYSIS AND DATA
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