World Energy Outlook 2012 - IEA
World Energy Outlook 2012 - IEA
World Energy Outlook 2012 - IEA
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<strong>World</strong> <strong>Energy</strong> <strong>Outlook</strong> <strong>2012</strong><br />
Maria van der Hoeven<br />
Executive Director, <strong>IEA</strong><br />
Wellington<br />
© OECD/<strong>IEA</strong> <strong>2012</strong>
© OECD/<strong>IEA</strong> <strong>2012</strong>
Emerging economies steer energy markets<br />
Share of global energy demand<br />
100%<br />
80%<br />
60%<br />
40%<br />
6 030 Mtoe 12 380 Mtoe 16 730 Mtoe<br />
Non‐OECD Rest of non‐OECD<br />
Middle East<br />
India<br />
China<br />
OECD<br />
20%<br />
1975 2010 2035<br />
Global energy demand rises by over one‐third in the period to 2035,<br />
underpinned by rising living standards in China, India & the Middle East<br />
© OECD/<strong>IEA</strong> <strong>2012</strong>
A US oil & gas transformation<br />
United States oil and gas production, 1980‐2035<br />
mboe/d<br />
25<br />
20<br />
15<br />
Unconventional gas<br />
10<br />
5<br />
Conventional gas<br />
Unconventional oil<br />
Conventional oil<br />
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035<br />
The surge in unconventional oil & gas production has implications<br />
well beyond the United States<br />
© OECD/<strong>IEA</strong> <strong>2012</strong>
Transport drives oil demand<br />
Oil demand by sector in the New Policies Scenario<br />
mb/d<br />
50<br />
45<br />
40<br />
35<br />
30<br />
25<br />
20<br />
15<br />
10<br />
5<br />
0<br />
1.0%<br />
Road<br />
transport<br />
1.2%<br />
Other<br />
transport<br />
0.3% ‐0.4%<br />
‐2.9%<br />
Industry Buildings Power<br />
generation<br />
0.4%<br />
Other<br />
%<br />
2011<br />
2035<br />
compound average<br />
annual growth rate,<br />
2011‐2035<br />
Global oil demand increases steadily to almost 100 mb/d in 2035, up from 90 mb/d<br />
today , with all of the net growth coming from transport in emerging economies.<br />
© OECD/<strong>IEA</strong> <strong>2012</strong>
Car ownership is soaring<br />
PLDV fleet in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario<br />
Million<br />
vehicles<br />
450<br />
400<br />
350<br />
300<br />
250<br />
200<br />
150<br />
100<br />
50<br />
0<br />
2000 2010 2020 2030 2035<br />
China<br />
European Union<br />
United States<br />
India<br />
Brazil<br />
The passenger vehicle fleet doubles to 1.7 billion in 2035, driven by strong growth in<br />
car ownership in non‐OECD countries<br />
© OECD/<strong>IEA</strong> <strong>2012</strong>
Electric vehicles need to come of age<br />
es (million)<br />
Glob bal Passeng ger LDV sal<br />
200 FCEV<br />
Fuel lCell llElectric Vehicles<br />
150<br />
100<br />
50<br />
0<br />
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050<br />
Electricity<br />
Plug-in hybrid diesel<br />
Plug-in hybrid gasoline<br />
Diesel hybrid<br />
Gasoline hybrid<br />
CNG/LPG<br />
Diesel<br />
Gasoline<br />
More than 90% of new light duty vehicles need to be<br />
propelled by an electric motor in 2050<br />
© OECD/<strong>IEA</strong> <strong>2012</strong><br />
© OECD/<strong>IEA</strong> <strong>2012</strong>
Global biofuels production 2000‐<strong>2012</strong><strong>2012</strong><br />
Global Biofuels Supply<br />
mb/d<br />
billion litres<br />
2.5<br />
140<br />
20 2.0<br />
120<br />
100<br />
1.5<br />
80<br />
10 1.0<br />
60<br />
0.5<br />
40<br />
20<br />
00 0.0<br />
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 0<br />
<strong>2012</strong><br />
Rest of Global Biofuels OECD EUR Biofuels Brazil Biofuels US Biofuels<br />
Biofuels supply has been soaring.<br />
Source: Medium-term Oil<br />
Market Report <strong>2012</strong><br />
© OECD/<strong>IEA</strong> <strong>2012</strong>
Middle East oil to Asia: a new silk road<br />
Middle East oil export, by destination<br />
mb/d 7<br />
2000<br />
6<br />
5<br />
2011<br />
2035<br />
4<br />
3<br />
2<br />
1<br />
China<br />
India<br />
Korea & Japan<br />
Europe<br />
United States<br />
© OECD/<strong>IEA</strong> <strong>2012</strong><br />
By 2035, almost 90% of Middle Eastern oil exports go to Asia; North America’s<br />
emergence as a net exporter accelerates the eastward shift in trade
Natural gas: towards a globalised market<br />
Major global gas trade flows, 2010 2035<br />
Rising supplies of unconventional gas & LNG help to diversify trade flows, putting<br />
pressure on conventional gas suppliers & oil‐linked pricing mechanisms<br />
© OECD/<strong>IEA</strong> <strong>2012</strong>
© OECD/<strong>IEA</strong> <strong>2012</strong>
Different trends in oil & gas<br />
import dependency<br />
Net oil & gas import dependency in selected countries<br />
Gas Imports<br />
100%<br />
80%<br />
60%<br />
European Union<br />
Korea & Japan<br />
2010<br />
2035<br />
40%<br />
20%<br />
0%<br />
China<br />
United States<br />
India<br />
Gas Exports<br />
20%<br />
20% 40% 60% 80% 100%<br />
Oil imports<br />
While dependence on imported oil & gas rises in many countries,<br />
the United States swims against the tide<br />
© OECD/<strong>IEA</strong> <strong>2012</strong>
A power shift to emerging economies<br />
Change in power generation, 2010‐2035<br />
Coal Gas Nuclear Renewables<br />
China<br />
India<br />
United States<br />
European Union<br />
‐1 000 0 1 000<br />
TWh<br />
2 000<br />
3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000<br />
TWh<br />
The need for electricity in emerging economies drives a 70% increase in worldwide<br />
demand, with renewables accounting for half of new global capacity<br />
© OECD/<strong>IEA</strong> <strong>2012</strong>
© OECD/<strong>IEA</strong> <strong>2012</strong>
A smart, sustainable energy system<br />
Co-generation<br />
Renewable energy resources<br />
Centralised fuel production,<br />
power and storage<br />
Smart energy<br />
system control<br />
Distributed<br />
energy resources<br />
H vehicle<br />
2<br />
Surplus heat<br />
EV<br />
A sustainable energy system is a smarter,<br />
more unified and integrated energy system<br />
© OECD/<strong>IEA</strong> <strong>2012</strong><br />
© OECD/<strong>IEA</strong> <strong>2012</strong>
The multiple benefits of renewables<br />
come at a cost<br />
Global renewable energy subsidies of $4.8 trillion, 2011‐2035<br />
Biofuels<br />
$1.2 trillion<br />
Committed to<br />
existing projects<br />
$1.0 trillion<br />
Required to<br />
meet targets<br />
<strong>2012</strong>‐2020<br />
$1.6 trillion<br />
Electricity<br />
$3.6 trillion<br />
Renewable subsidies were $88 billion in 2011; over half the subsidies required to<br />
2035 has been committed to existing projects or is needed to meet 2020 targets<br />
© OECD/<strong>IEA</strong> <strong>2012</strong>
<strong>Energy</strong> efficiency: a huge opportunity going<br />
unrealised<br />
<strong>Energy</strong> efficiency potential used by sector in the New Policies Scenario<br />
100% Unrealised energy<br />
efficiency potential<br />
80%<br />
Realised energy<br />
efficiency potential<br />
60%<br />
40%<br />
20%<br />
Industry Transport Power<br />
generation<br />
Buildings<br />
Two‐thirds of the economic potential to improve energy efficiency remains untapped<br />
in the period to 2035<br />
© OECD/<strong>IEA</strong> <strong>2012</strong>
© OECD/<strong>IEA</strong> <strong>2012</strong>
The Efficient <strong>World</strong> Scenario:<br />
a blueprint for an efficient world<br />
Total primary energy demand by scenario<br />
Mtoe<br />
18 000<br />
17 000<br />
16 000<br />
15 000<br />
14 000<br />
13 000<br />
New Policies<br />
Scenario<br />
Efficient<br />
<strong>World</strong> Scenario<br />
Reduction in 2035<br />
Coal<br />
1350 Mtce<br />
Oil 12.7 mb/d<br />
Gas 680 bcm<br />
Others<br />
250 Mtoe<br />
© OECD/<strong>IEA</strong> <strong>2012</strong><br />
12 000<br />
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035<br />
Economically viable efficiency measures can halve energy demand growth to 2035;<br />
oil demand savings equal the current production of Russia & Norway
© OECD/<strong>IEA</strong> <strong>2012</strong>
Foundations of energy system shifting:<br />
Implications for New Zealand<br />
• Natural gas will play a central role in meeting global energy needs<br />
– NZ must remain attractive to upstream investors<br />
• Shift to low‐carbon technologies has started to happen – NZ must<br />
maintain investment levels in energy infrastructure to ease this<br />
transition<br />
• The greatest potential for emissions abatement in the region –<br />
and the most cost‐effective – lies in energy efficiency measures,<br />
particularly in transport, industry and buildings<br />
© OECD/<strong>IEA</strong> <strong>2012</strong>
© OECD/<strong>IEA</strong> <strong>2012</strong>
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