A24 Horsham to Capel - West Sussex County Council

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demonstrates a significant improvement in the number of accidents and casualties. The County Council also monitors the accident record in terms of vehicle miles which shows that the route currently experiences 23 collisions per 100 million km which is only slightly above the national average for rural A-class roads of 19 (2010 average). As a result the route is currently ranked number 73 on the County Council’s list of priority locations for accident remedial work and is therefore currently considered a low priority. Table 1 – Accident / Casualty Summary Monitoring Accidents Casualties Period Fatal Serious Slight Total Fatal Serious Slight Total Previous 3yrs 3 7 24 34 4 7 40 51 01/01/97 - 31/12/99 Current 3yrs 01/11/08 - 31/10/11 0 4 13 17 0 5 18 23 1.3 Horsham District Council are currently reviewing the Horsham District Planning Framework which is likely to provide a plan for further development in the District up to 2031. Options for new development are still being developed and further technical work is required to test the impact of development on the transport network. This exercise will be expected to identify what transport mitigation measures are required to support delivery of new development by mitigating its impact on the transport network. If the impact of future development in the District means additional road capacity is required, then proposals will be developed to support the preferred development strategy. In the absence of a realistic prospect of delivering the A24 Horsham – Capel Improvement, it is not considered reasonable to retain the scheme for the sole reason that it may be needed at some unknown point in the future to mitigate the impact of development. 1.4 Although the capacity of the existing road was not the main justification for the improvement scheme, planned development in the Horsham area, most notably the strategic development sites south of Broadbridge Heath (Countryside Properties) and east of A24 (Berkeley Homes) are likely to place additional pressure on the transport network in this area. The transport assessment for these sites assesses the cumulative impact of these developments on the road network. The greatest impact on the A24 north of the Great Daux junction with A264 is forecast to be an increase in outbound trips in the AM peak (78) and inbound in the PM peak (89) as a result of these developments. 1.5 The impact of future development which is not currently planned but may come forward through the Horsham District Planning Framework has been considered. The potential for an additional 4500 homes north of Horsham is likely to have the most impact on the A24 and therefore, in this case, offers a worst case scenario in considering the need for the improvement scheme. An initial estimate of the impact of this site on the A24 north of Great Daux suggests that there may be potential for approximately 160 additional journeys in the AM peak (outbound) and PM peak (inbound) resulting from a residential development of this scale if it were to come forward.
1.6 The County Council monitors traffic flows via a permanent traffic counter in Kingsfold which, between February and November 2011, monitored an average weekday peak flow of 1034 vehicles travelling northbound in the AM peak. A worst case scenario can therefore be considered by adding existing flows to the impact of the committed development south of Broadbridge Heath and east of A24 and the potential for potential future development north of Horsham. The calculations below also factor in traffic growth to 2023 to provide an estimate of the worst case scenario in the AM peak when observed flows and the impact of development are expected to be greatest. Calculation 1: Peak traffic flow estimate (AM peak northbound) Worst case scenario = Observed traffic flow (2011) + Growth factor to (2023) + committed development west of Horsham + potential future development 1396 = 1034 + 124 + 78 + 160 1.7 It is difficult to accurately predict the exact capacity of the existing road because this depends on a wide range of factors. However, the theoretical capacity of the existing A24 is estimated to be 1342 vehicles per hour (based on 7.5m carriageway width and 5% of heavy vehicles). There is potential that under the worst case scenario, the impact of development may lead to the requirement for an improvement scheme to be delivered at some point in the future. This will need to be explored by modelling the impact of future development through the Horsham District Planning Framework but, at this point in time, it does not justify retaining the scheme because of an immediate need to accommodate traffic growth. 1.8 In October 2010, central Government announced changes to their approach to funding local authority major schemes and identified those schemes which would be delivered or developed further during the current spending review period. The A24 Horsham – Capel Scheme was not identified for delivery or further development during the current spending review period (to 2015) and, as a result, there is currently little prospect of delivering the scheme other than if it were required in order to accommodate future development. When an estimate for the scheme was last produced, the improvement scheme was expected to cost £57.3m (2006 prices). 1.9 As the scheme has been approved by the County Council, it is revealed in property searches for those properties which are either directly affected by, or are adjacent to, the proposed scheme. If the scheme were to be retained, the County Council may be subject to claims for blight caused by the existence of the scheme which would only be considered acceptable financially if there were a realistic prospect of delivering the scheme in the short term. 1.10 For the reasons outlined in paragraphs 1.2 – 1.9, the Cabinet Member is recommended to rescind the scheme at the earliest opportunity. 2. Consultation
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A24 Horsham to Capel - West Sussex County Council

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