Janos Bogardi - GWSP

The Future of European Waters
International Conference, Budapest, 23-25 March 2011
From Questions to more Questions:
Can the impacts of global change at the
level of large river basins be captured?
Janos J. Bogardi
Executive Officer
Global Water System Project
University of Bonn, Germany

The GWSP-GCI
Questionnaire Action
Febr. 2008 set of questions defined
Nov. 2009-Jan. 2010 Questionnaire action
Febr. 2010 Workshop, „Distilled answers“
Aug. 2010 GWSP „Global Water News“ No. 9.
Attachment: Workshop summary by R.
Schulze; From questions to more questions
by J. Bogardi
6-8 Dec. 2010 int. Conference in Bonn „The
Global Dimensions of Change in River Basins:
Threats, Linkages and Adaptation

The Questions
• Theme 1: What are the magnitudes and mechanisms
of man made and environmental changes in the
GWS?
• Theme 2: What are the main linkages and feedbacks
within the earth system arising from changes in the
GWS?
• Theme 3: How resilient and adaptable is the GWS to
change and what are sustainable water
management strategies?
10 (3/3/4) Questions (some multiple) exploring the
links between socioeconomic activities, politics,
water governance/management and change at
the scale of large basins.

The selected 14 basins. Primary watersheds of the world…
http://multimedia.wri.org/watersheds_2003/gm1.html
…with marked GWSP Case Study Basins
+ Incomati
*
+ Winnipeg Lake Basin
+ Huai + Andean Catchments
+ Jordan
*
Includes the whole basin, Upper Danube and Tisza rivers

Some (unexpected?)
answers (1)
• Direct anthropogenic influences are
predominant: politics&policies, governance,
economic change, land use change, river
training and reservoir construction
• Shifts in hydrological extremes are not as
pronounced as anticipated/perceived
• Most visible deterioration is that of aquatic
ecosystems and biodiversity
• River basins „fragment“ the terrestrial part
of the hydrological cycle and its effects

Some (unecpected?)
answers (2)
• Virtual water trade concept is hardly used in
river basin management
• „Donor“ basins seem to be affected
negatively by global trade dictated land and
water use practices
• Undervalued water and short term profit
orientation increase vulnerability in all basins
• Political and economic preferences dominate
the interactions in the earth/water system

Some (unexpected?)
answers (3)
• Resilience and adaptability in a basin
depends on its development state
• Adaptation is usually more local/regional
than basinwide
• Size and heterogeneity of the basins limit
the applicability of the „management by
basin“ concept
• Climate change is an uncertain, but
expectedly negative „add on“

Towards conclusions
• 14 swallows do not make a summer
(uncertainty)
• Land use changes and social aspirations
affect the GWS faster and more profoundly
• Diversities in large basins may defy the
concept of using river basins as basis of
IWRM (How large should an IWRM basin be?
Any consequence for the EWFD?)
• Present river basin management science and
practice do not warrant to continue BAU

How further?
• Refocusing the questions based on the
experience gained with the 2010
campaign
• Repeating the questionnaire action in
2011
• Workshop in Nov. Dec. 2011 in RSA
• Reporting in 2012 on 6th World Water
Forum, Marseille and at the „Planet
under Pressure“ GEC science
conference in London, March 2012